U21CHP23 RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

INDIAN AND GLOBAL ENERGY SCENARIO

Indian Energy Scenario
Energy consumption
India's energy consumption grew by 7% in 2021 and 2022, and exceeded 1 GTOE
(gigatonne of oil equivalent*) in 2022 for the first time. India is the world's sixth largest
energy consumer, accounting for around 3.4% of global energy consumption.

*Note: The ton of oil equivalent (toe) represents the quantity of energy contained in
a ton of crude oil, that is gigajoules 41.868. This unit is used to express and compare
energies of different sources.

Energy sources
Coal is India's primary energy source, accounting for 46% of the country's energy
consumption in 2022. Oil and biomass follow, accounting for 24% and 20%
respectively.

Renewable energy
India is the world's third largest producer of renewable energy, with 40% of its energy
capacity coming from renewable sources in 2022. As of February 28, 2023, India's
total renewable energy capacity was 168.96 GW, including 64.38 GW of solar power,
51.79 GW of hydro power, 42.02 GW of wind power, and 10.77 GW of bio power.

Energy demand
India's energy demand has grown by 3.6% per year over the past 30 years. Energy
demand is expected to increase over the next 10-15 years, and coal is expected to
remain the dominant fuel for power generation.
Global Energy Scenario
Electricity consumption
Global electricity consumption has more than tripled since 1980, reaching roughly
25,500 terawatt-hours in 2022.

Electricity generation
Global electricity production is expected to increase by 150–123% by 2050,
depending on the scenario.

Energy mix
In 2022, coal accounted for 35.8% of the global power mix, while natural gas
accounted for 22%.

Fossil fuels
The share of fossil fuels in the electricity mix is projected to decline from 59% in 2021
to 2–55% by 2050. However, in some scenarios, the aggregate level of fossil fuels
used for power generation grows.

Energy consumption per person

The world average is equivalent to 2.2 tonnes of coal per person. However, people
in industrialized countries use four to five times more than the world average.

Environmental impact
Non-renewable resources like coal and petroleum cause more harm to the
environment than renewable resources.

Global energy crisis

The 2021-present global energy crisis was caused by a variety of economic factors,
including the rapid post-pandemic economic rebound and the Russian invasion of
Ukraine.
The world average energy consumption per person is equivalent to 2.2 tonnes of coal.
In industrialized countries, people use four to five times more than the world average,
and nine times more than the average for the developing countries. An American uses
32 times more commercial energy than an Indian.
This scenario shows an increase in total primary energy demand of 47% from 2020 to
2050. Consumption of all energy sources increases from today with renewables
growing significantly faster than all other sources. The right-hand panel shows the
percentage share of energy consumption by source for 2020 and 2050.
Nowadays, the energy scenario is subjected to important changes. One of the main
reasons is the public awareness due to the reality of climate change and, specially, to
the policies adopted by governments. In this regard, renewable energies play an
indispensable role. Several renewable technologies have been developed in the
recent years such as solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy, geothermal energy,
and so on.

Future resource scenarios

Earth's human population is currently about 7.9 billion people, 3.2 times more than the
population at the beginning of the 1960s. This growth in population will likely drive
increases in energy, resource and food demand. With this increased demand, it is
likely that human development will continue to depend upon and expand farther into
marine systems, driving further evaluation of the deep ocean for a variety of activities,
including energy production, aquaculture, shipping, mining and military uses. This
movement to offshore is logical: it reduces the impact on liveable land, removes
infrastructure from line of sight and from populated areas, and in many situations the
economic, societal and technological opportunities are more robust offshore than
onshore.
Fossil hydrocarbon resources have dominated global energy systems since the late
19th century when coal use surpassed wood as the major source of primary energy.
About a century later, oil became the dominant fuel and it remains so today, supplying
31% of global primary energy demand in 2020. Natural gas provided an additional
25% of global primary energy in 2020. Together, oil and natural gas have provided
more than 50% of the world's primary energy since the middle of the 20th century.
Several major energy companies, consultancies and government agencies create
projections of global energy supply and demand for the next 3–4 decades. The
scenarios they create are based on their own assumptions about technology, politics
and economics and so they often differ in the detailed makeup of future energy supply
and demand. Despite the detailed differences the scenarios generally have one thing
in common. Global energy use is enormous and because of that scale, and the fact
that similarly enormous capital has been invested in our current energy sources and
infrastructure, it can be said that global energy is a stable, slowly evolving system.
Energy in India
Prim. CO2-
Population Production Import Electricity
energy emission
million TWh TWh TWh
TWh Mt
2004 1,080 6,662 5,430 1,230 494 1,103
2007 1,123 6,919 5,244 1,745 610 1,324
2008 1,140 7, 222 5,446 1,836 645 1,428
2009 1,155 7,860 5,844 2,116 690 1,586
2010 1,171 8,056 6,032 2,110 755 1,626
2012 1,241 8,716 6,291 2,483 835 1,745
2012R 1,237 9,166 6,333 2,829 940 1,954
2013 1,250 9,018 6,086 2,962 979 1,869
Change
2004– 8.4% 20.9% 11.1% 72% 53% 47.4%
10
mtoe = 11.63 TWh, Prim. energy includes energy losses that are 2/3 for nuclear power
2012R = CO2 calculation criteria changed; numbers updated.
ENERGY DEMAND IN PRESENT AND FUTURE
India's energy demand is expected to be the highest globally between 2021 and 2030,
growing at a rate of more than 3% annually. This is due to rapid industrialization and
urbanization.

Fig. Energy consumption 2015 and 2030 (calculated)

In 2022, India's total energy consumption exceeded 1 Gtoe for the first time, growing
by 7% in 2021 and 2022. The country's top energy sources are coal (46%), oil (24%),
and biomass (20%).
In August 2023, India's peak power demand met was 236.59 GW, up from 195.22 GW
in August 2022. The Power Ministry had predicted a peak electricity demand of 230
GW for the summer of 2023, but the projection was not met until August due to an
erratic and milder summer.
According to a report by FICCI and Deloitte India, India's final energy demand is
expected to double by 2070. The report identifies three areas that form the foundation
of India's energy transition plans: grid decarbonization, industrial decarbonization, and
transport transition.
Energy in India today
India is a major force in the global energy economy. Energy consumption has more
than doubled since 2000, propelled upwards by a growing population – soon to be the
world’s largest – and a period of rapid economic growth. Near-universal household
access to electricity was achieved in 2019, meaning that over 900 million citizens have
gained an electrical connection in less than two decades.

India’s continued industrialisation and urbanisation will make huge demands of its
energy sector and its policy makers. Energy use on a per capita basis is well under
half the global average, and there are widespread differences in energy use and the
quality of service across states and between rural and urban areas. The affordability
and reliability of energy supply are key concerns for India’s consumers.

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted India’s energy use; our updated assessment
shows an estimated fall of about 5% in the country’s energy demand in 2020 due to
lockdowns and related restrictions, with coal and oil use suffering the biggest falls. The
pandemic has also hit investment in the energy sector, which fell by an estimated 15%
in 2020, exacerbating financial strains across the board, in particular among India’s
electricity distribution companies. How long the impacts last will depend on how
quickly the spread of the virus is brought under control, and on the policy responses
and recovery strategies that are put in place.
Over 80%of India’s energy needs are met by three fuels: coal, oil and solid biomass.
Coal has underpinned the expansion of electricity generation and industry, and
remains the largest single fuel in the energy mix. Oil consumption and imports have
grown rapidly on account of rising vehicle ownership and road transport use. Biomass,
primarily fuelwood, makes up a declining share of the energy mix, but is still widely
used as a cooking fuel. Despite recent success in expanding coverage of LPG in rural
areas, 660 million Indians have not fully switched to modern, clean cooking fuels or
technologies.
Natural gas and modern renewable sources of energy have started to gain ground,
and were least affected by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The rise of
solar PV in particular has been spectacular; the resource potential is huge, ambitions
are high, and policy support and technology cost reductions have quickly made it the
cheapest option for new power generation.
India is the third-largest global emitter of CO2, despite low per capita CO2 emissions.
The carbon intensity of its power sector in particular is well above the global average.
Additionally, particulate matter emissions are a major factor in air pollution, which has
emerged as one of India’s most sensitive social and environmental issues: in 2019,
there were well over one million premature deaths related to ambient and household
air pollution.
India has a wide range of policies in place that aim to bring about a secure and
sustainable energy future. This Outlook does not have a single view on how India’s
energy future might look. Instead, based on a detailed examination of today’s energy
markets, technologies and policies, our scenarios explore the implications of different
circumstances and choices, and the linkages between them.
 • The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) assumes that the pandemic is
gradually brought under control in 2021. Against that backdrop, it assesses the
direction in which today’s policy settings and targets seem likely to take the
energy sector in India, taking into account a range of real-life constraints that
might affect their realisation in practice.
• The India Vision Case (IVC) takes a more optimistic stance on the speed of
economic recovery and long-term growth, and also on the prospects for a fuller
implementation of India’s stated energy policy ambitions.
• The Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS), by contrast, examines the
implications of a more prolonged pandemic with deeper and longer-lasting
impacts on a range of economic, social and energy indicators than is the case
in the STEPS.
• The Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) takes a different approach,
working backwards from specific international climate, clean air and energy
access goals, including the Paris Agreement, and examining what combination
of actions would be necessary to achieve them.

Global demand reaches about 660 quadrillion Btu in 2050, up about 15% versus 2021,
reflecting a growing population and rising prosperity. Residential and commercial
primary energy demand declines by approximately 15% to 2050 as efficiency
improvements offset the energy needs of a growing population.

India's energy demand will continue to provide fuel for future economic growth and is
bound to grow exponentially in coming years.

Talking about the fast progress made by India in green and clean energy sector, Shri
Hardeep Singh Puri, the Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Housing & Urban
Affairs, said that the 10 percent target on biofuel blending by November, 2022 was
attained 5 months in advance, and the 20 percent biofuel blending target of 2030 has
been advanced to 2025.
The Petroleum & Natural Gas Minister Shri Puri was addressing the gathering at
inauguration of 26th Energy Technology Meet.
Speaking on management of 3 challenges in the energy sector i.e. availability,
affordability and sustainability, he said, for a start we did not allow our challenge on
sustainability to decelerate in fact we accelerate.
Also, slowly and surely, the Minister said that we are shedding this limit of 20 percent
as this limit was imposed by us on ourselves because the automobile companies told
that up to 20 percent blending not much change is required in engines. But now, he
said, we have 20 percent blended fuel, and the process of setting up of ethanol and
biogas plants etc. is underway rigorously. The automobile manufacturers are also
moving forward in terms of technological advancements. Giving example of the
recently launched Green Hydrogen Bus by India Oil, he said that now we are going
into new technological mindset, we have electric cars and other flexi-fuel vehicles.
Speaking about rising energy demand of the country, the Minister said that India's
energy demand will continue to provide fuel for future economic growth and is bound
to grow exponentially in the coming years. He said that at present the country is world's
3rd largest consumer of oil, 3rd largest LPG consumer, 4th largest LNG importer, 4th
largest refiner, 4th largest automobile market.
India is likely to account for 25% of global energy demand growth over the next two
decades, he emphasised.
With launch of Biofuels Alliance, Shri Puri, said that the global biofuel market will go
up from 92 bn dollars at present to 200 bn dollars very shortly. However, this is not the
end of the story. The real story on biofuels has just started. The 10 percent ethanol
blending has led to considerable savings on the import bill and it will increase with 20
percent blending, he stated.
The Minister said that the surest means of determining a country’s growth is to look at
its energy consumption. And India’s energy consumption is 3 times of the global
average. Going forward, he suggested, we should have more gatherings like this,
encourage more countries to come and take advantage of all the discussions.
Centre for High Technology (CHT), under the aegis of the Ministry of Petroleum &
Natural Gas, Govt. of India is organising the 26th Energy Technology Meet (ETM),
during 9-11 October 2023 at International Exhibition Cum Convention Centre (Bharat
Mandapam), Pragati Maidan, New Delhi with Engineers India Limited (EIL) and
Numaligarh Refinery Limited (NRL) as co-hosts.
The event was inaugurated by Petroleum & Natural Gas Minister Shri Hardeep Singh
Puri in the august presence of Shri Rameswar Teli, Minister of State of Petroleum and
Natural Gas & Labour and Employment, Shri Pankaj Jain, Secretary, PNG and Dr Anil
Kakodkar, Eminent Scientist and Chairman of Scientific Advisory Committee on
Hydrocarbons of MoP&NG, CMDs, Directors and Senior Executives of Oil Companies.

During the inaugural session, Refinery Performance Improvement & Saksham

Awards FY 2022-23 and Innovation Awards were presented to the winners by
Petroleum & Natural Gas Minister Shri Hardeep Singh Puri. The list of the awards
is shared below:
The global energy landscape is witnessing a paradigm shift due to rise in
electrification, changes in the mobility sector and the increasing share of renewables
in the energy mix. The challenge for Indian Refining sector is to grow to meet rising
need for energy in the country as well as to integrate more and more with
Petrochemicals, Biorefining and Green Hydrogen. The theme of the event is
“Emerging Energy Trends & Future of Refining”.
The revered annual convention cum exhibition provides a common forum for refiners
and technology service providers for the exposition of recent advances and
technological developments in the energy sector and in particular the refining and
petrochemicals sectors. 27 technology service providers from across the globe
have put up stalls for showcasing the recent technological advances in the
energy sector. The meet is attended by more than 1300 delegates from India and
abroad.
EIL is South Asia’s leading engineering consultancy and EPC company providing a
wide gamut of services in sectors like hydrocarbons, infrastructure, biofuels, mining &
metallurgy, water & waste management, solar & nuclear power and fertilizers.
NRL is a Schedule-A Category -I Miniratna CPSE under MoP&NG that has embarked
on a major integrated Refinery Expansion Project to treble its capacity from 3 MMTPA
to 9 MMTPA.

Outlook for energy demand

The current energy crisis is reshaping previously well-established demand trends.
Industries exposed to global prices are facing real threats of rationing and are curbing
their production. Consumers are adjusting their patterns of energy use in response to
high prices and, in some cases, emergency demand reduction campaigns. Policy
responses vary, but in many instances they include determined efforts to accelerate
clean energy investment. This means an even stronger push for renewables in the
power sector and faster electrification of industrial processes, vehicles and
heating.1 As many of the solutions to the current crisis coincide with those needed to
meet global climate goals, the crisis may end up being seen in retrospect as marking
a critical turning point in the drive for both energy security and emissions reductions.
Progress made in the STEPS by 2030 falls short of countries’ targets in the APS. The
APS is a little over halfway to reaching SDG 7.1: universal access to clean cooking
and electricity.
Decoupling emissions from growing demand

Renewables are the fastest growing energy source in many regions, and CO2
emissions fall to 36.2 Gt in the STEPS – slightly below current levels, and to 31.5 Gt
in the APS, a 14% reduction compared to current levels.

Key Findings
• A gloomy economic outlook leads to lower projections of energy demand
growth in this Outlook than in last year’s edition. High energy prices, heightened
energy security concerns and strengthened climate policies are putting an end
to a decade of rapid progression for natural gas; its annual demand growth
slows to 0.4% from now to 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), down
from 2.3% from 2010 to 2019. Coal sees a temporary surge in demand in some
regions from the power and industry sectors in response to increases in natural
gas prices, but efforts to reduce emissions soon put coal into decline again,
ending the decade with demand 9% lower than today. Renewables, notably
solar PV and wind, gain the most ground of any energy source this decade,
accounting for 43% of electricity generation worldwide in 2030, up from 28%
today. Oil demand rises 0.8% per year to 2030, but peaks soon after at around
103 million barrels per day as electric vehicles (EVs) and efficiency gains
undermine its prospects.
• The tone for accelerated clean energy development this decade in advanced
economies is being set by new policy packages and government plans and
targets, notably those set out in: Inflation Reduction Act (United States);
RePowerEU plan and Fit for 55 package (European Union); Climate Change
Bill (Australia); and GX Green Transformation (Japan). While not all national
energy and emissions targets are reached in the STEPS, advanced economies
 still see declining demand for all fossil fuels by 2030 – a first in the STEPS.
However, these measures take time to roll out. Short-term actions are needed
to reduce dependency on fossil fuel imports this winter, especially in Europe,
which includes an important role for consumers in terms of behaviour change.
In emerging market and developing economies, demand for fossil fuel rises
more slowly than in previous versions of the STEPS, notably for natural gas in
Asia. The slowdown in fossil fuel demand growth is led by China, where slowing
economic growth and policy efforts lead to a peak in emissions during this
decade.
• In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), fossil fuel use declines further by
2030 than in the STEPS on the assumption that countries meet their national
net zero emissions pledges, including those announced by India and Indonesia
since the World Energy Outlook 2021 (WEO-2021). All sectors accelerate
progress on electrification and energy efficiency compared to the STEPS, with
notable acceleration of EVs and electric heating in the transport and buildings
sectors. Renewables meanwhile rise rapidly in the power sector and account
for nearly 50% of electricity generation by 2030. These outcomes require end-
users to spend more upfront in the APS on efficient and low-emissions
equipment, but the cost of this equipment declines faster in the APS than in the
STEPS due to economies of scale.
• Energy-related emissions in the STEPS continue to increase in the next two
years before starting to decline in the mid-2020s. They fall to 36.2 gigatonnes
of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2) in 2030 – slightly below current levels. In the APS,
they are down further to 31.5 Gt CO2 by 2030 as governments take early and
ambitious action with the aim of delivering significant reductions in emissions in
this decade, together with improvements in air quality. The private sector plays
an important role in the APS, with almost 800 companies pledged to reach net
zero emissions, including through sector-wide initiatives for steel, cement,
aviation and shipping. However, even the actions in the APS are well short of
what is needed in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario.
• In the developing world, high prices and inflation are slowing progress towards
universal access to modern energy. The number of people without electricity is
likely to rise in 2022 for the first time in decades. Setbacks in sub-
Saharan Africa threaten to erase nearly all the progress made there since 2013.
Meanwhile surging prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) may drive up to
100 million people that use it for cooking to revert to traditional fuels. These
headwinds mean that the projected number of people without access in 2030
is higher in the STEPS this year than it was in the WEO-2021. The APS projects
more progress, but achieving all relevant country-level access targets still only
gets halfway to universal access for both electricity and clean cooking by 2030.
Full achievement of universal access by 2030 will require more ambitious
targets, effective implementation measures and higher levels of investment.
• Around 5 billion people live today in areas with substantial needs for space
cooling. However, only one-third of households have an air conditioner, mostly
in advanced economies. By 2050, climate change and population growth
increase the number of people with substantial cooling needs to 7 billion.
Electricity demand for space cooling approaches 5 200 terawatt-hours (TWh)
in the STEPS as the number of air conditioners rises from the current 1.5 billion
to 4.4 billion by 2050, with 90% of the increase in emerging market and
 developing economies. Growth in demand is cut by more than 50% in the APS
as a result of determined efforts to improve the efficiency of air conditioners and
with the use of passive cooling measures in buildings.
• Peak oil demand moves forward from the mid-2030s in the STEPS to the mid-
2020s in the APS, largely as a result of the faster adoption of EVs. In the APS,
EVs account for over 35% of global car sales by 2030, and for more than 50%
of sales in China, the European Union and the United States. As a result, the
electric car market in 2030 is six-times its size in 2021. This reflects targets to
phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 36 countries as well as
plans by major manufacturers to pivot to EV production.