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Socratic Ignorance
"I know that I know nothing"
STATISTICS HISTORY
Some scholars pinpoint the origin of
statistics to 1662, with the publication of
Natural and Political Observations upon the
Bills of Mortality by John Graunt.
Its mathematical foundations were laid in
the 17th century with the development of
probability theory by Blaise Pascal and
Pierre de Fermat.
Probability theory arose from the study of
games of chance. The method of least
squares was first described by Carl
Friedrich Gauss around 1794.
STATISTICS APPLICATIONS
Early applications of statistical thinking
revolved around the needs of states to
base policy on demographic and
economic data, hence its stat- etymology.
The scope of the discipline of statistics
broadened in the early 19th century to
include the collection and analysis of data
in general.
The term statistics is ultimately derived
from the New Latin statisticum collegium
("council of state") and the Italian word
statista ("statesman" or "politician").
Today, statistics is widely employed in
government, business, and the natural
and social sciences.
INTRO TO STATISTICS
WHAT IS STATISTICS ? VID
Resources
www.collegeboard.com
www.whfreeman.com/tps3e
Register to take Online Quizzes
Send me the result
gil_op@hotmail.com
www.ti.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
Einstein’s Riddle
ALBERT EINSTEIN WROTE THIS
RIDDLE EARLY DURING THE 19th
CENTURY. HE SAID THAT 98% OF
THE WORLD POPULATION WOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO SOLVE IT.
Write an example:
The Scientific Method
and the Design of Experiments
The largest value in the list is 21, and the smallest is 13,
so the range is 21 – 13 = 8.
mean: 15
median: 14
mode: 13
range: 8
M&Ms Activity
DATA PRODUCTION
Producing data
Survey
Surveys are popular ways to gauge public opinion
The idea of a survey:
Select a sample of people to represent a larger population.
Ask the individuals in the sample some questions and record their
responses.
Use sample results to draw some conclusions about the population.
Observational study
In an observational study, we observe individuals and
measure variables of interest but do not attempt to influence
the responses.
Experiment
In an experiment, we deliberately do something to individuals
in order to observe their responses.
Example Observational study VS
Experiment
Census
Phone survey
Vaccines
Interview
Comparing two drugs
Exam
PAAR students
Exercise Observational study -
Experiment
Design an Observational Design an Experiment.
Study. Question?
Question? Population?
Population? Sample?
Sample? Data production?
Data production? Analisys?
Analisys? Conclusion?
Conclusion?
Homework Exercises (from pg 11)
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
DATA ANALYSIS
Individuals and Variables
Individuals are the objects described by a set of data (people,
animals, things).
Variables are any characteristics of an individual. A variable
can take different values for different individuals.
Categorical variable. Places an individual into one of several
groups or categories.
Quantitative variable. Takes numerical values for which
arithmetic operations (adding, average…) make sense.
Mean:
Median:
Range:
0 2 4 6 8 10
Graph the distribution
Goals scored
Exploring Relationships between variables
20
15
10
0
Los Phoenix San Diego San Seattle
Angeles Francisco
Class Exercises (from pg 19)
EXERCISES
P.7
P.8
P.9
P.10
P.12
PROBABILITY
Probability: What are the Chances?
When you toss a coin…
What is the probability of getting heads?
1
0.9
0.8
Proportion of Heads
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 5 10 50 100 500 1000
Number of Tosses
Natural or
4 Five (Fever Five) Easy Six Hard Eight Nine (Nina) Easy Ten
Seven Out
Natural or
5 Easy Six Easy Eight Nine (Nina) Hard Ten Yo (Yo-leven)
Seven Out
6 Natural or Seven Out Easy Eight Nine (Nina) Easy Ten Yo (Yo-leven) Boxcars
The following chart shows the dice combinations needed to roll each number
.16 4 100
Variation is everywhere!
Probability provides a description of how the Sample results
will vary in relation to the true Population percent.
We rely on Probability to help us answer research questions
with a known degree of confidence.