qwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxc

vbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghj
klzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopas
dfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyu
iopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmq
wertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcv
bnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjk
lzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasd
fghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyui
opasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmrty
uiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmq
wertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcv
lzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjk
Simulacije u poslovnom odluivanju

Obavezni zadaci

14.6.2013
Tadija Vasiljevi 117/10/M

1. Zadatak
Modelujemo fantomske firme i uoavamo da FlyRobyFly (raun u to=1 mil) dobija meseno 5 mil
(oekujemo da od 2. meseca doe do skoka od 1 mil), a odmah prosleuje 4 mil Veljku. Veljku meseno
KosicaTrade uplauje 3 mil (oekuje se linearni rast u iznosu od 1 mil od 2. meseca), pri emu Veljko na
raunu u to ima 4 mil. Meutim, siva eminencija politike scene reketira Veljka tako to mu uzme 1 mil
ako kod njega na raunu ima bar 6 mil. S druge strane, Veljko alje novac na sigurnu lokaciju (Devianska
ostrva) i to svakog meseca 6 mil, s tim da se oekuje da e 2. meseca doi do jednokratnog poveanja
iznosa za 2 mil (hapenje na vidiku).
Kreirajte dijagram uzrono-posledinih veza (odredite polaritete veza), identifikujte kola povratnog
dejstva (odredite polaritet KPD-a), kreirajte dijagram skladita-tokova, napiite matematiki
(kvantitativni) model, izvrite runu simulaciju za 12 meseci.

DUPV

DST

Jednaine
FRF.K=FRF.J+DT*(DOBIJA.JK-SALJE.JK)
FRF.0=1
DOBIJA.KL=5+STEP(1,2)
SALJE.KL=4
VELJKO.K=VELJKO.J+DT*(SALJE.JK+KOSICA.JK-OSTRVA.JK-POLITICKAS.JK)
VELJO.0=4
KOSICA.KL=3+RAMP(1,2)
OSTRVA.KL=6+PULSE(2,2)
ODSTUPANJE.K=CILJ-VELJKO.K
CILJ=6
IF(ODSTUPANJE.K) A, A, B
A POLITICKAS.KL=1
GO TO C
B POLITICKAS.KL=0
C END
Runa simulacija za 12 meseci
t

FRF

DOBIJA

ALJE

VELJK

KOSIC

POLITIK

OSTRV

ODSTUPA

O
4
5

5
6

15

10

19

0
4

1
-2
-5
-9
-14
9

10

26
4

-20

33
4

-27
11

12

13

14

41
6

-35

50

23

-44

60
71

NJE
2
1

20

21

25

15

13

11

6
17

6
9

11

12

13

11

6
6

AS

5
5

-54
-65

2. Zadatak
Lepe ropkinje Ruskinje, meu kojima i budua Hasek i Sultana Hurem, brodom stiu u Stambol i
iskrcavaju
se na svakih 31 minuta, oekuje se da na brodu ima 200 ropkinja (prvih pola sata nema iskrcavanja sa
broda zbog malo sporije procedure). Ropkinje staju u red za dobijanje prvog uputstva od strane Nigakalfe. Ukoliko je red za Nigar-kalfu dui od 5, ropkinje imaju mogunost da biraju. Njih 20% odlazi u
desetominutnu etnju po velelepnom zdanju harema i nakon toga se vraaju i ipak staju u red, dok ostat
ak
odlazi u hamam. Tamo rade dve slukinje koje lepo sreuju pristigle ropkinje (ako nema mesta, ropkinje
se odmah vraaju i staju u red). Nakon to se okupaju, (u proseku traje 12 minuta), vraaju se i staju u
red. Nakon to ih Nigar-kalfa podui osnovnim principima funkcionisanja harema, (potrebno u proseku 3
minuta), ropkinje biraju manji od dva korisnika lanca (ako su isti, staju u drugi) i ekaju da ih prozovu u
sobu za oblaenje i dodeljivanje prvih dunosti. ul-aga je zaduen za prvi lanac i dolazi na svakih 6
minuta (s tim da se prvih 25 minuta ne pojavljuje), uzima jedan ropski list i obrauje ga (ako ima posla) 3
minuta. S druge strane, Zumbul-aga dolazi na 5 minuta, uzima jedan ropski list i obrauje ga (ako ima
posla) 2 minuta. Nakon toga i jedan i drugi prozivaju po jednu ropkinju i prosleuju ih u sobu za oblaenje
i dodeljivanje prvih dunosti. Oblaenje i dodeljivanje prvih dunosti obavlja Gulah, slukinja sultanije
Mahidevran. Vreme potrebno za oblaenje i dodeljivanje prvih dunosti podlee sledeoj funkciji:
Vreme evaluacije
Verovatnoe
2
0.3
3
0.4
4
0.1
6
0.1
7
0.099
Histogramom snimi vreme provedeno u redu za Nigar-kalfu, odrediti broj ropkinja koje su se okupale u
hamamu, kao i broj ropkinja kojima su dodeljene prve dunosti. Simulacija traje osam sati.

GPSS: Listing
GPSS/FON - Assembler Ver. 4.0, 2003
------------------------------------1| SIMULATE
2| 1 GENERATE 3,1,30,200
3| 2 TEST LE Q$REDNIGAR,5,PODELA
4| 3 PONOVO MARK
5| 4 QUEUE REDNIGAR
6| 5 SEIZE NIGAR
7| 6 DEPART REDNIGAR
8| 7 TABULATE CEKANJE
9| 8 ADVANCE 3
10| 9 RELEASE NIGAR
11| 10 TEST L CH$LANAC1,CH$LANAC2,DRUGI

12|
13|
14|
15|
16|
17|
18|
19|
20|
21|
22|
23|
24|
25|
26|
27|
28|
29|
30|
31|
32|
33|
34|
35|
36|
37|
38|
39|
40|
41|
42|
43|
44|
45|
46|
47|
48|
49|

11 LINK LANAC1,FIFO
12 DRUGI LINK LANAC2,FIFO
13 SOBA SEIZE GULSAH
14 ADVANCE FN$VREME
15 SAVEVALUE DODELJENE+,1
16 RELEASE GULSAH
17 TERMINATE
18 PODELA TRANSFER .2,,SETNJA
19 GATE SNF SLUSKINJE,ODMAH
20 ENTER SLUSKINJE
21 ADVANCE 12
22 SAVEVALUE OKUPALE+,1
23 LEAVE SLUSKINJE
24 ODMAH TRANSFER ,PONOVO
25 SETNJA ADVANCE 10
26 TRANSFER ,PONOVO
27 GENERATE 6,,25
28 TEST NE CH$LANAC1,0,KRAJ
29 ADVANCE 3
30 UNLINK LANAC1,SOBA,1
31 TERMINATE
32 KRAJ TERMINATE
33 GENERATE 5
34 TEST NE CH$LANAC2,0,GOTOVO
35 ADVANCE 2
36 UNLINK LANAC2,SOBA,1
37 TERMINATE
38 GOTOVO TERMINATE
CEKANJE TABLE M1,1,1,70
SLUSKINJE STORAGE 2
INITIAL X$OKUPALE,0
INITIAL X$DODELJENE,0
VREME FUNCTION RN1,D5
0.3,2/0.7,3/0.8,4/0.9,6/0.999,7
39 GENERATE 480
40 TERMINATE 1
START 1
END

Chains symbols and corresponding numbers

1: LANAC1
2: LANAC2
Facility symbols and corresponding numbers

1:
2:

NIGAR
GULSAH

Function symbols and corresponding numbers

1: VREME
Savevalue symbols and corresponding numbers
1: OKUPALE
2: DODELJENE
Storage symbols and corresponding numbers
1: SLUSKINJE
Queue symbols and corresponding numbers
1: REDNIGAR
Table symbols and corresponding numbers
1: CEKANJE
-----------------------------------No errors detected

GPSS: Rezultati
GPSSW/FON Ver. 4.0, Simulating results
Relative clock
Block counts
Block Current Total
1
0
179
2
0
179
3
0
177
4
26
177
5
0
151
6
0
151
7
0
151
8
1
151
9
0
150
10
0
150
11
11
75
12
10
75
13
0
129
14
1
129
15
0
128
16
0
128
17
0
128
18
0
128
19
0
96

480

Absolute clock

480

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

Storage Capacity
1

49
49
47
47
94
32
32
76
76
74
74
74
2
96
96
75
74
74
21
1
1
Average
Average
Entries Average Current Maximum
Contents Utilisation
Time/tran Contents Contents
2
1,197
,599
49
11,875
2

2
Table
1
Entries in table Mean argument Standard deviation Sum of arguments
151
30,053
18,720
4538,000
Upper Observed
limit frequency
1
-1,552
2
-1,499
3
-1,445
4
-1,392
5
-1,338
6
-1,285
7
-1,231
8
-1,178
9
-1,125
10
-1,071
11
-1,018
12
-,964

Percent Cumulative Cumulative Multiple Deviation

of total percentage remaninder of mean from mean
4
2,649
2,649
97,351
,033
1

,662

3,311

96,689

,067

,662

3,974

96,026

,100

,662

4,636

95,364

,133

1,325

5,960

94,040

,166

,662

6,623

93,377

,200

1,987

8,609

91,391

,233

1,987

10,596

89,404

,266

1,987

12,583

87,417

,299

,662

13,245

86,755

,333

,662

13,907

86,093

,366

1,987

15,894

84,106

,399

-,911
-,858
-,804
-,751
-,697
-,644
-,590
-,537
-,484
-,430
-,377
-,323
-,270
-,217
-,163
-,110
-,056
-,003
051
104
157
211
264
318
371
425
478
531

13

,662

16,556

83,444

,433

14

1,325

17,881

82,119

,466

15

4,636

22,517

77,483

,499

16

5,960

28,477

71,523

,532

17

11

7,285

35,762

64,238

,566

18

3,311

39,073

60,927

,599

19

4,636

43,709

56,291

,632

20

1,987

45,695

54,305

,665

21

3,311

49,007

50,993

,699

22

,662

49,669

50,331

,732

23

1,325

50,993

49,007

,765

24

,662

51,656

48,344

,799

25

,000

51,656

48,344

,832

26

,662

52,318

47,682

,865

27

1,325

53,642

46,358

,898

28

,662

54,305

45,695

,932

29

1,987

56,291

43,709

,965

30

1,325

57,616

42,384

,998

31

1,987

59,603

40,397

1,032

32

,662

60,265

39,735

1,065

33

1,325

61,589

38,411

1,098

34

,000

61,589

38,411

1,131

35

,000

61,589

38,411

1,165

36

1,325

62,914

37,086

1,198

37

1,325

64,238

35,762

1,231

38

,000

64,238

35,762

1,264

39

1,325

65,563

34,437

1,298

40

,662

66,225

33,775

1,331

585
638
692
745
798
852
905
959
1,012
1,066
1,119
1,172
1,226
1,279
1,333
1,386
1,439
1,493
1,546
1,600
1,653
1,707
1,760
1,813
1,867
1,920
1,974
2,027

41

,000

66,225

33,775

1,364

42

1,987

68,212

31,788

1,398

43

1,987

70,199

29,801

1,431

44

1,325

71,523

28,477

1,464

45

2,649

74,172

25,828

1,497

46

,662

74,834

25,166

1,531

47

,662

75,497

24,503

1,564

48

1,325

76,821

23,179

1,597

49

,000

76,821

23,179

1,630

50

1,325

78,146

21,854

1,664

51

,662

78,808

21,192

1,697

52

2,649

81,457

18,543

1,730

53

,662

82,119

17,881

1,764

54

2,649

84,768

15,232

1,797

55

,662

85,430

14,570

1,830

56

1,987

87,417

12,583

1,863

57

1,987

89,404

10,596

1,897

58

3,311

92,715

7,285

1,930

59

1,325

94,040

5,960

1,963

60

,000

94,040

5,960

1,996

61

1,987

96,026

3,974

2,030

62

,000

96,026

3,974

2,063

63

1,325

97,351

2,649

2,096

64

1,325

98,675

1,325

2,130

65

,000

98,675

1,325

2,163

66

,662

99,338

,662

2,196

67

,000

99,338

,662

2,229

68

,000

99,338

,662

2,263

2,081

69

,662

100,000

,000

2,296

70

,000

100,000

,000

2,329

2,134

Queue Maximum Average

Total
Zero Percent
Average
Current
contents contents entries entries
zeros time/trans contents
1
27
11,140
177
1
,565
30,209
26
Facility
1
2

Average
Number Average
Seizing
Preempting
utilisation entries time/tran transact. transaction
,938
151
3,000
1
,914
129
3,422
1

User chain
1
2
SaveValues
X$1 = 47
X$2 = 128

Total
Average
Current
entries time/trans contents
75
4,000
75
4,933

Average Maximum
contents contents
1
,617
1
,776

0
0

1
2