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levels of distribution investment have gone missing since independence. The distribution sub-sector that, today, needs the maximum attention is totally unable to support such investments. A few states have made such investments despite their scal pressures but even they need to do more. However, they are unable to generate the required surpluses. The tariff increases and efciency gains at the state utilities primarily guarantee the protected returns of bloated CPSUs and the private sector both of whom have gradually raised their stake in the sector and are, today, the dominant force because of being rewarded selectively with the highest regulated returns in the world. All this is at the cost of the state utilities charged with the primary responsibility for servicing end users of electricity but progressively rendered unable to do so because of a misguided policy and regulatory regime. All of the above is further compounded by the poor governance that aficts both the central and the state public sector units engaged in the power sector with the state-owned units being relatively worse. Poor vision, poor planning and procurement practices, high degree of political interference in all commercial

decisions and human resource management, and, above all, the lucrative arbitrage offered by a tariff regime that ranges from free power to power priced at rates not charged anywhere else in the world has led to a grossly inefcient and distorted sector wherein available data is completely unreliable and doctored to obfuscate massive corruption, poor productivity and a culture of mediocrity. In Conclusion I have primarily highlighted the power sector issues here within the context of the proposed nancial restructuring of the dues of the state discoms and the broader concerns of scal stability both at the centre and the state levels. The distortions in the oil and gas sector and the coal sector are no less potent in threatening Indias scal stability and undermine our attempts to provide even basic levels of energy access to our people. A fact that might come as a surprise to our elitist planners, but best reects our loss of touch with the reality of India, is that traditional biomass together with the animal and human draught energy constitutes the single largest source of energy in India by far. We put out an erroneous guestimate

of how much traditional biomass we use as a nation year after year in our Plan documents and we are blissfully ignorant about the extent of animal and human draught energy that powers the worlds third or fourth largest economy. Those who tell us that nuclear energy is the answer to Indias energy woes are simply fooling themselves and the people of this country. I can safely say that at least till 2050 and possibly till even later, that is not even remotely likely. The Indian electricity and energy sectors are simply unsustainable in their current form. Schemes that tinker around the edges while preserving the current policy and regulatory superstructure provide limited policy space. Fiscal stability and our promise of basic energy access to our people demands a more comprehensive and a more serious rethink. The rst step in that direction is to get rid of the vested interests that are advising the government on key policy initiatives. These are the same people who have brought us to the current abyss. They benet from preserving the status quo. The honorable young and articulate power minister and the Fourteenth Finance Commission will do well to take note.

Climate Change in Himachal

Evidence from Kullu Region
Mohit Kapoor, Abdul Shaban

Temperatures are rising in Kullu in Himachal Pradesh where farmers are dependent on the rains for agriculture. This article uses meteorological data to provide evidence of gradual climate change in the region that might affect livelihoods.
Mohit Kapoor (kapoormohit4@gmail.com) is at the School of Development Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. Abdul Shaban is with the School of Development Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW

number of studies provide evidence of changes in local climate and the effects these changes have on people and economies across the world. Studies on the Himalayan region (Ranbir et al 2009) and perception of people in these regions also show a change in climatic variables (Vedwan and Rohodes 2001). It has been observed that a change in climatic variables in various parts of the Himalayan belt has affected agricultural activities in the region as well as livelihoods. An attempt has been made in this article to look into the local-level climate change by analysing climatic variables in the Kullu district
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of Himachal Pradesh, a small district in the western Himalayan region. The district is situated between 310 20-320 25 N latitude and 760 56-770 52 E longitude and topographically is rugged mountain and a transitional zone between the Lower and Greater Himalayas. The altitude of the district varies between 1,000m and 6,000m. The general climate of Kullu is cold, dry with average rainfall around 800 mm. It receives its major rainfall from July to September. Kullu is one of the most rural districts of India as about 90% of the population of the district lives in villages (Census of India 2011) and more than 75% of the population depends on primary activities and the majority of farmers are marginal farmers. Only 6% to 7% of the total cultivable area is under irrigation (Government of Himachal Pradesh 2012). Thus any change in climate can affect the economy as people largely depend on nature for their livelihood.
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Kullu district is divided into two zones (zone 1 and 2) on the basis of climatic data available at two research stations situated at different heights. Climatic data used in this article have been collected from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Regional Station, Kullu (IARI, Katrain) and from the Hill Agricultural Research and Extension Centre, Kullu (HAREC, Bajaura). The data relate to the period from 1970 to 2010. Data prior to 1970 are not available and also for some climatic variables data for the whole period 1970-2010 are not available. The period to which the data relate to are mentioned in tables against the respective climate variables. Simple regression analysis has been carried to nd out if the variables show a trend. To save space only statistically signicant results have been reported. Climatic Conditions There is considerable climatic variation between the two zones (based on average altitude from mean sea level) of the district. The average mean maximum
Variable

monthly temperature in zone 1 ranges from 15.6oC (standard deviation ()= 1.6) in January to 32.9oC ( =2.1) in June, while in zone 2 the average mean maximum monthly temperature ranges between 10.9oC ( = 1.6) in January and 27.1oC ( = 2.8) in June (Table 1). The lowest average mean minimum temperature is in December in zone 1 (0.8oC with = 1.4) while the coldest month in zone 2 is January (1.8oC, = 1.7). It is noteworthy that despite at higher altitude, the coldest month in zone 2 remains warmer than the coldest month of zone 1. Both the zones have higher relative humidity throughout the year. Both the zones have highest rainfall in July. The average total rainfall in July in zone 1 is 141.0 mm while in zone 2 it is 170.1 mm. The dispersion in July rainfall in both the zones is found very high: = 82.8 in zone 1 and = 89.2 in zone 2. The dispersion in average total annual rainfall is also found very high in both zones during the reference period. The standard deviations have been above 220. This shows that there is considerable
January February March April May

yearly uctuation in rainfall in both the zones. Summary Results The regression results presented in Tables 2 and 3 (p 21) show that (i) Annual average maximum temperatures in both the zones are increasing, while the annual average minimum temperature is rising in zone 2. The average rise in annual average maximum temperature in zone 1 is 0.05oC per year or 0.5oC per decade. The rise of annual average maximum temperature in zone 2 is around 0.28oC per decade. The increase in average temperature is also supported by other studies. Shrestha et al (1999) show that temperature in Nepal Himalayas is increasing at the rate of 0.6oC per decade while the global temperature is increasing at rate of 0.75oC per decade over last hundred years (IPCC 2007). (ii) The average minimum temperature shows a rising trend for all the months for zone 2, maximum being for February and March. The rise in average minimum temperature in February and March is
June July August Septem- Octo- Novem- Decem- Annual ber ber ber ber

Table 1: Monthly and Annual Mean Values and Standard Deviation of Climatic Variables in Kullu District of Himachal Pradesh

Zone 1 (1,090 m) Relative humidity mean monthly maximum (%), 1985-2005 Mean Std Dev Relative humidity mean monthly minimum (%), 1985-2005 Mean Std Dev Mean maximum temperature (degree celsius), 1985-2005 Mean Std Dev Mean minimum temperature (degree celsius), 1985-2005 Mean Std Dev Total rainfall (mm), 1975-2005 Mean Std Dev Total number of rainy days, 1975-2005 Mean Std Dev Mean bright sunshine hours (hr/day), 1986-2005 Mean Std Dev Zone 2 (1,670 m) Average relative humidity (%), 1970-2010 Mean Std Dev Mean maximum temperature (degree celsius), 1970-2010 Mean Std Dev Mean minimum temperature (degree celsius), 1970-2010 Mean Std Dev Total rainfall (mm), 1970-2010 Mean Std Dev Average sunshine hours, 1974-2010 Mean Std Dev Total snowfall (mm), 1970-2010 Mean Std Dev

91.6 2.4 42.0 6.9 15.6 1.6 1.0 1.1 74.9 54.9 7.0 3.4 4.8 0.6 69.9 8.0 10.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 113.2 136.9 4.9 1.0 281.7 368.4

89.2 86.7 86.5 82.9 79.8 86.9 4.6 7.5 6.4 5.7 7.0 5.1 43.6 41.3 37.2 34.6 40.1 58.1 7.5 10.3 7.4 6.9 6.6 8.6 17.3 21.2 26.3 30.9 32.9 31.1 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.4 3.2 6.1 12.4 12.7 17.4 21.1 1.0 1.7 3.1 1.9 2.1 1.4 95.9 117.0 78.4 83.0 66.0 141.0 52.0 68.6 45.9 67.9 47.7 82.8 8.7 10.0 8.6 9.3 8.2 13.7 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.8 5.4 6.4 7.6 8.3 8.2 6.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 70.3 67.2 64.9 7.7 8.0 8.3 12.6 16.4 21.7 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.8 6.0 9.6 2.1 2.2 2.1 115.5 165.4 96.5 77.4 103.5 62.2 5.0 5.6 6.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 177.1 32.7 0.1 196.6 72.7 0.4 64.3 8.8 25.0 2.4 12.5 2.1 81.1 71.4 7.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 70.4 6.8 27.1 2.8 16.0 1.9 76.4 42.7 7.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 84.5 5.0 26.9 1.6 18.9 1.7 170.1 89.2 5.4 1.1 0.0 0.0

90.3 2.6 60.1 5.1 30.4 1.0 20.7 0.8 110.2 68.8 12.8 4.3 5.9 1.0

89.0 88.5 91.4 91.5 87.9 3.4 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.8 52.1 34.6 33.5 38.3 43.0 5.0 7.4 7.0 11.1 2.9 29.7 27.2 23.0 17.7 25.3 1.3 2.5 1.4 2.1 0.7 17.1 8.9 3.5 0.8 10.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.0 72.0 27.1 25.7 21.0 911.7 70.5 42.7 41.6 29.0 222.4 8.2 2.7 2.3 3.4 95.1 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.9 17.6 7.3 8.2 6.8 5.1 6.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.3

87.0 78.1 64.9 61.5 62.3 70.5 5.1 6.6 6.8 9.1 11.2 4.2 26.6 25.4 23.0 18.6 14.0 20.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.0 18.5 15.2 9.6 6.0 3.2 10.0 1.7 2.5 1.8 3.1 2.0 1.5 160.1 100.2 39.5 42.2 51.7 1,166.8 81.2 75.4 47.9 49.1 43.3 290.8 5.5 6.7 7.6 6.8 5.2 6.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 75.3 567.8 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.9 170.5 530.2

Source: The data related to zone 1 is obtained from HAREC, Bajaura, while for the zone 2 it is obtained from IARI, Katrain.

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Table 2: Trend in Climatic Variables in Zone 1 (Altitude 1,090 Metres) of Kullu District
Month Intercept () Zone 1 (1,090 m) Trend Coefficient p-Value of () Trend Coefficient R-Square

Average maximum temperature oC (1985-2005) May 28.600 Annual average 24.705 Average minimum temperature oC (1985-2005) June 19.278 Number of rainy days (1975-2005) June 6.123 Average maximum relative humidity (1985-2005) January 89.500 February 84.395 March 80.524 April 81.476 May 77.986 June 70.890 August 87.771 October 85.767 November 88.414 December 89.305 Annual average 83.905 Average minimum relative humidity (1985-2005) June 33.814 Days of bright sunshine (mean hours/day) (1986-2005) March 5.626 June 9.088

0.208 0.052 -0.172 0.131 0.188 0.44 0.558 0.455 0.443 0.806 0.229 0.251 0.274 0.197 0.364 0.575 0.078 -0.084

0.015 0.040 0.022 0.029 0.022 0.004 0.034 0.046 0.026 0.00 0.012 0.031 0.049 0.045 0.005 0.012 0.021 0.021

0.272 0.204 0.247 0.154 0.246 0.359 0.216 0.194 0.235 0.507 0.291 0.223 0.189 0.196 0.351 0.29 0.263 0.275

The trend has been computed using regression equation, y = + t + e, where y is dependent variable, is intercept, t is time and takes value 0,1,2,n for the years, is trend coefficient, and e is error term. Source: Computed by the authors from the data obtained from HAREC, Bajaura.

Table 3: Trend in Climatic Variables in Zone 2 (Altitude 1,670 Metres) of Kullu District
Month Intercept () Zone 2 (1,670 m) Trend p-Value of Trend Coefficient () Coefficient R-square

Average maximum temperature oC (1970-2010) January 9.979 July 25.752 August 25.273 Annual average 20.095 Average minimum temperature oC (1970-2010) January -0.058 February 0.427 March 3.926 April 7.843 May 10.692 June 14.328 July 17.108 August 16.591 September 13.382 October 7.991 November 4.217 December 1.617 Annual average 8.112 Total annual rainfall (in mm) (1970-2010) June 48.248 Average relative humidity (1970-2010) February 64.243 April 59.932 December 53.879 Annual average 67.175 Average sunshine (hours/days) (1974-2010) June 8.325 August 6.395 Annual average 6.474

0.044 0.056 0.064 0.028 0.087 0.112 0.097 0.085 0.086 0.078 0.083 0.088 0.087 0.075 0.083 0.076 0.089 1.338 0.289 0.239 0.401 0.156 -0.053 -0.048 -0.014

0.035 0.007 0.006 0.023 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0.001 0 0 0.006 0.001 0.038 0.002 0 0.016 0.003 0.027 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.009 0.013

0.109 0.172 0.18 0.126 0.369 0.4 0.28 0.228 0.217 0.241 0.356 0.386 0.178 0.241 0.106 0.215 0.452 0.141 0.204 0.119 0.184 0.203 0.298 0.178 0.193

about 1.12oC and 0.97oC, respectively, per decade, while the increase in annual average minimum temperature for the zone 2 is 0.89oC per decade. (iii) Surprisingly zone 1 shows a decline in average minimum temperature for June of about -1.7oC per decade. This month also shows an increase in the number of rainy days and minimum and maximum relative humidity, and decrease in bright sunshine hours. (iv) In zone 2 also the month of June has experienced an increase in amount of rainfall (of 1.34 mm per year) and a decrease in average sunshine hours. (v) Annual average relative humidity has increased in both the zones of the district. The rise in annual average relative humidity in zone 2 is 0.16% per year, while in zone 1 annual average maximum relative humidity has increased by 0.36% per year. Zone 1 has also experienced an increase in average maximum relative humidity in all months, except July and September. (vi) Snowfall, which mainly occurs in zone 2 during October to March, has not shown any signicant trend of decline or increase. Thus, one can conclude from the results presented above that the climate in both the zones is getting warmer and more humid. Though rainfall and snowfall did not change signicantly, the increasing trend in temperature can bring about variations of those variables as well. The rise in temperature can affect agriculture and horticulture on which a majority of the districts population is dependent. With very little mitigation measures, the only hope to avoid future climatic consequences is to undertake adaptive measures. However the question is whether rural-based communities of these areas have the capabilities and whether they can afford the cost of adaptation, which can be huge.
References
BBC (2007): The Story of India, TV Documentary, Episode 1, BBC UK, presented by Michael Wood. Census of India (2011): Provisional Population Totals, Paper 2 of 2011: Himachal Pradesh, Ofce of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, New Delhi.

Source: Computed by the authors from the data obtained from IARI, Katrain.
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Government of Himachal Pradesh (2012): District Level Economic Indicator 2010-11, Department of Economics and Statistics, Himachal Pradesh, www.himachal.nic.in/economics/pub.htm, viewed on 15 July 2013. Huntington, Ellsworth (1922): Principles of Human Geography (New York: Wiley). IPCC (2007): Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report [IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR 4)], Geneva, Switzerland. Kruger, A C (2006): Observed Trends in Daily Precipitation Indices in South Africa: 1910-2004, International Journal of Climatology, 26 (15): 2275-85. Pal, I and Al Tabbaa A (2009): Regional Changes in Extreme Monsoon Rainfall Decit and Excess in India, Dynamics of Atmosphere and Oceans, 49 (2-3): 206-14. Ranbir, R, R Bhagat, V Kalia and H Lal (2009): Impact of Climate Change on Shift of Apple Belt in Himachal Pradesh, paper presented at conference of ISPRS on Climate Change and Agriculture, Ahmedabad, December. Shrestha, A B, C P Wake, P A Mayeski and J E Dibb (1999): Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971-94, Journal of Climate, 12: 2773-87. Vedwan, N and R Rhoades (2001): Climate Change in Western Himalayas of India: A Study of Local Perception and Response, Climate Research, 19: 109-17.

Historical Validity of Mullaperiyar Project

R Seenivasan

This historical analysis of the Periyar project questions the arguments and some of the contemporary claims made about the projects engineering and construction, and its environmental impact. Far from being an environmentally destructive project, this was a pacist scheme when it was built. The article throws light on these issues by analysing historical documents.

ontroversies surrounding the Periyar dam have acquired different dimensions over time. New claims have been made that the original conception of the project itself was an environmentally harmful idea. For Ramaswamy R Iyer, a proponent of such a theory, the dam appears to be a case of hubristic and maximalist engineering and a bad example,1 and he raises some basic questions about the planning and the need for the dam itself.2 These arguments resemble in many ways the theories advanced by historians3 studying north and east Indian oodplains. Without making any statements on these studies, this article examines the merits of similar arguments advanced by Iyer. This article uses Periyar project documents, district manuals and gazetteers of the times, and engineering histories written by engineers on the project. It argues that whatever was done by the British in Vaigai and Periyar was an extension of the possibilities that existed in irrigation engineering at the time. These examples of engineering and planning cannot be solely ascribed to the European way of science and engineering. How True Are These Claims? It is true that building the Periyar dam had no precedence in engineering and was an extraordinary effort for its time. In the late 19th century, the project generated great interest among engineers, geographers, administrators and revenue

ofcials. The number of proposals and plans made4 about the Periyar project itself is an indication of an intense and passionate debate about using natural resources. The project, unlike many other contemporary projects, had to undergo vetting by several agencies of the time and took nearly 11 years to get approved by the British government. While there is no doubt that land revenue generation was a major consideration, the project was also put forth as a famine control measure5 and for the social development of certain denotied castes that lived in the area. The project invited attention from around the world, and was watched carefully for its results. For example, the Royal Geographic Societys monthly journal reported about the difculties and benets of this endeavour in the following words:
The difculties of the undertaking were increased by the nature of the country jungle-clad, malarious, and uninhabited and the altitude (2800 feet) to which the materials had to be dragged up steep slopes with an average gradient of 1 in 15, four large unbridged rivers also having to be crossed on the way from the nearest railway station. Water-power was utilized in the work wherever possible, and altogether the best economy of force was practised, with a result that the total cost of this benecent undertaking has been less than half a million sterling at the present rate of exchange, on which outlay the direct prots should yield a handsome return (The Society 1895: 567).

R Seenivasan (r.seenivasan@gmail.com) is a PhD candidate at the School of Law, University of Westminster, London.

The dam construction used mostly local ingredients such as stone and lime sourced nearby. Very few machineries and iron works came from Europe. The project had three main components the dam and lake on the hills, a tunnel to transmit, and channels inside the Vaigai basin. Local technicians, artisans and labourers from the neighbouring
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