Example 2: Using Schedule Risk Analysis for delay recovery planning.

Client: Higher Education Science Building Project: Construction of a five story Biological Sciences Center Building. The facility provides new teaching and research laboratories, laboratory support rooms, and office space. The value was $60M., CM at risk contract, with liquidated damages clause. Request for Schedule Risk Analysis: The Gilbane on-site team requested a risk analysis because of slower than planned steel erection and late shop drawing mechanical equipment submittals had eroded five weeks of project float to zero float during the first five months of construction, and there remained fourteen months of construction. This meant the project would remain close to critical path for a significant duration of time. At the time of the analysis, steel erection and slab placement was ongoing and the structural steel was scheduled to complete the following month. It was therefore essential that the team identify the schedule risk early and mitigate proactively. Schedule Risk Analysis Results: The schedule risk analysis concluded that there was less than 5% chance of achieving substantial completion by contract date, and would most likely completion one-month late. Outcome: The schedule risk analysis identified and prioritized the six highest risk schedule sequences. These included: Start of permanent power; Auditorium fit-out; the exterior rain gutter system installation. As a result of the analysis, the project manager and superintendent took proactive action on all the risk items to mitigate their future impact. As an example of how the team reacted, the team made the following adjustment: To complete the primary electrical room on or ahead of time, the fit up of the room had to start before all the slab on grade was to be poured. Although not a critical path activity at the time of the analysis, pouring the floor was flagged as the primary risk because it was being delayed due to under-slab plumbing layout coordination issues. The project team immediately mitigated this issue by placing the SOG directly under the electrical room so the room work above grade could proceed. This required a very minimal out of sequence cost. This action allowed the electrical room equipment to be delivered on time and fit-out for permanent power to proceed as-planned. The analysis identified this issue months before it would have occurred, and remedied at minimal cost. Effort to complete report: Total 16 hours to interview project team, input and analyze data, and issue report. Follow-up schedule risk analysis where conducted each quarter.

Schedule & Risk Analysis

Entire Plan : Finish Date

Analysis
100% 12/Feb/09 95% 90% 150 85% 80% 75% 120 70% 65% 60% 55% 27/Jan/09 23/Jan/09 21/Jan/09 20/Jan/09 19/Jan/09 16/Jan/09 15/Jan/09 14/Jan/09 13/Jan/09 12/Jan/09 09/Jan/09 09/Jan/09 08/Jan/09 07/Jan/09 06/Jan/09 05/Jan/09 02/Jan/09 01/Jan/09 29/Dec/08
Simulation: Iterations: Latin Hypercube 1000

Convergence
Plan Finish Date: Converged in 200 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations) Total Plan Cost: Converged in 200 iterations (variation < 1% over 100 iterations)

Cumulative Frequency

Statistics
Minimum: Maximum: Mean: Max Hits: Std Deviation: Selected Confidence 85%: Deterministic Finish: Probability 17/Dec/08 12/Feb/09 11/Jan/09 177 9.138 21/Jan/09 07/Jan/09 34%

Hits

90

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%

60

30

15% 10% 5%

0 17/Dec/08 31/Dec/08 14/Jan/09 28/Jan/09 11/Feb/09

Distribution (start of interval)

Above: Analysis curve shows chance of completion on time & most likely completion date. Below: Activities with highest risk of impacting project completion, and sorted by greatest risk.

Schedule Sensitivity Index

Analysis

P-9500 - Res-Plz ER-049: Electrical Work 9002 - Initial Stage I Equipment Commissioning 830 - Install Under Slab Plumbing & Testing 9240 - Install Conduit Ductbank at Heathman Road 1850 - Fire Alarm Pre-test 9280 - Wire/ Fitout/ Test Equipment at Sub-Station P-9835 - Teach-Plaza Aud: Install Fixed Seating P-9820 - Teach-Plaza Aud: MEP Trim/ Finishes 824 - Res: FRP SOG @ Perimeter (for exterior wall) 1292 - Research: Sheath Exterior Elevation 1402 - Res: South Elevation Masonry Stagging/Enclosure 1860 - Fire Alarm Final-test P-9760 - Teach-Plaza Aud: Fire Protection Drops 823 - Res: Backfill Utilities @ Perimeter SOG 840 - Backfill Under Slab Plumbing P-6090 - Res-Plaza: FRP SOG M-1419 - Teaching-East: Install Gutter System 640 - Teach: 1st floor Decking & Detailing 790 - Excavate for Under Slab Plumbing 822 - Res: Underslab Utilities @ Perimeter SOG 56% 54% 51% 47% 39% 37% 37% 35% 31% 28% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%

72%

Simulation: Iterations:

Latin Hypercube 1000

Schedule Sensitivity Index

Values are displayed for: All tasks in the plan

Display settings
Normal tasks only Showing 20 highest tasks