Foresight: Designing a Radio Transponder Mission to Near Earth Asteroid Apophis

Version A | 28 April 2009 | 2009 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, 27-30 April 2009 (Granada, Spain)

Mr. A.C. Charania

President, Commercial Division | SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | ac@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8006

Dr. John R. Olds

CEO/Principal Engineer | SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | john.olds@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8002

Mr. Jesse Koenig

Systems Engineer | Sierra Nevada Corporation, Inc. | jesse.koenig@sncorp.com

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FIRM AREAS OF ENGAGEMENT

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SAMPLE CONCEPT STUDIES

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SPACEWORKS SOFTWARE PRODUCT LINE

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- Schaffer, M. G., Charania, A., Olds, J. R., "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Different NEO Mitigation Options," AIAA-2007-P2-1, 2007 Planetary Defense Conference, Washington, D.C., March 5-8, 2007. - Olds, J. R., Charania, A., Schaffer, M. G., "Multiple Mass Drivers as an Option for Asteroid Deflection Missions," AIAA-2007-S3-7, 2007 Planetary Defense Conference, Washington, D.C., March 5-8, 2007. - Charania, A., Graham, M., Olds, J. R., "Rapid and Scalable Architecture Design for Planetary Defense," AIAA-2004-1453, 1st Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting Earth from Asteroids, Orange County, California, February 24-27, 2004.

PREVIOUS PLANETARY DEFENSE WORK

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The SpaceWorks Engineering / SpaceDev team thanks The Planetary Society (its directors and its members and specifically Dr. Louis D. Friedman and Mr. Bruce Betts) for the opportunity to present the Foresight design and increase public awareness of the potential planetary threat from Near Earth Objects (NEOs) through the Apophis Mission Design Competition (Foresight: 1st place overall). Special thanks are extended to Mr. Dan Gerachi for his leading financial support for this endeavor.

THE PLANETARY SOCIETYS APOPHIS MISSION DESIGN COMPETITION

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- Foresight spacecraft is a small satellite mission design to orbit Near Earth Object (NEO) Apophis
- Primary mission: reduce future orbital uncertainty of Apophis
- Over a span of 300 days reduces the 3 error ellipse of Apophis' trajectory ("keyhole" or bplace encounter) in 2029 to 6.0 kilometers by 2017 (from 4500 km today) - Purpose-designed to meet minimum requirements of The Planetary Societys 2007 Apophis Mission Design Competition (1st place overall international winner)

- Characteristics
- Small orbiter spacecraft with minimal instruments and complexity
- Foresights Encounter Spacecraft (ES): 220 kg (wet mass), ~85 cm cube (stowed) - Total launch mass with Propulsive Transfer Vehicle (PTV): 1,608 kg (wet mass with payload)

- Lean, low risk small satellite approach to design and manufacture

Foresight uses heritage components, instruments, and flight proven technologies Proven mission approach with heritage from NEAR (Eros) and Hayabusa (Itokawa) missions Low cost launch vehicle (Minotaur IV baseline, other options available) Total life-cycle cost estimated to be under $131M USD (including launch)

- Flexible
- Multiple launch windows between 2012 and 2014 (extended mission option)

OVERVIEW
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Foresight: A Radio Beacon Mission to Asteroid Apophis LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRAo1dN7zMc CHANNEL: SpaceWorksEng FORESIGHT ANIMATION
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There is a 600 m long keyhole somewhere in the current 4500 km position ellipse. If Apophis goes through this region of space during its close approach in 2029, in 2036 it will hit the Earth.

Note: not to scale

Sources: "How Dangerous are Near-Earth Asteroids?," Clark R. Chapman, Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2007 Space Weather Workshop Reception, After-Dinner Talk, UCAR Center Green Campus, Bldg. 1, 25 April 2007.

CURRENT AND MISSION OUTPUT ERROR ELLIPSE FOR APOPHIS

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 Apophis, a 270 meter wide near-Earth asteroid, will pass within the range of geostationary satellites during its close approach to the Earth in April 2029
According to S. R. Chesley in 2005, the

2029 Apophis-Earth encounter distance is predicted to be 5.89 Earth radii, 0.35 Earth radii, (3)

The 2029 close approach will significantly alter Apophis orbit

There is a small possibility that the asteroid will pass through an approximately 600 m wide area of space called a keyhole, which would cause Apophis to impact the Earth in 2036 More precise measurements of the orbit of Apophis can confirm or deny this possibility

Today, we have a 99.7% confidence (3 sigma error) that in 2029 Apophis will be within a 4500 km window (with the 600 m keyhole somewhere in this window)
Results in a 1

in 45,000 chance of Apophis impacting the Earth in 2036

After 300 days of orbiting Apophis, the Foresight mission will reduce the size of this window to approximately 6 km window (Goal in the Planetary Society Competition was 14 km)
This will help determine whether Apophis will pass through the keyhole in 2029 and subsequently impact the Earth when it comes back in 2036

APOPHIS AND FORESIGHT

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ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT (ES) WITH PROPULSIVE TRANSFER STAGE (PTV)

ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT (ES)

FORESIGHT SPACECRAFT CONFIGURATION

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 Foresight spacecraft: concept design for radio tagging mission to Near Earth Asteroid (NEO) Apophis
Designed to meet requirements of 2007 Planetary Society Apophis Mission Design Competition) Goal: Apophis tracking accuracy must be adequate to reduce the long dimension of the 3 error ellipse to 14 kilometers by 2017, for reference, this translates approximately to a 10% impact probability if the keyhole is right in the middle of the 14-kilometer error ellipse. Joint team design with SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) and SpaceDev, Inc.

Low-cost, low-risk, robust, minimal science mission to obtain accurate tracking information Leverages off the shelf technologies, incorporating leaner approaches to spacecraft design Launch on Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) Minotaur IV (Wallops Island, Virginia USA)
Five launch windows have been identified spanning years 2012 to 2014 Chemical propulsive transfer vehicle to perform outbound burn to Apophis (3,600 m/s) with Foresight encounter spacecraft performing portion of Earth departure, and Apophis capture burn (total less than 2,400 m/s)

Foresight spacecraft mass is 220 kg (propulsive transfer vehicle of 1,387 kg)

Foresight orbiting spacecraft powered by solar arrays augmented by rechargeable batteries (280.6 W EOL); transfer vehicle is powered by onboard batteries The Spacecraft has two main instruments, a multi-spectral imager and laser altimeter The total cost for this mission is estimated to be $130.9 M ($87.9 M for spacecraft and instrument development and acquisition, $21 M for operations, and $22 M for the launch vehicle) Overall system reliability is estimated to be 90.2%

Over a span of 300 days reduces the 3 error ellipse of Apophis' trajectory ("keyhole" or b-place encounter) in 2029 to 6.0 kilometers by 2017

FORESIGHT MISSION OVERVIEW

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FORESIGHT MISSION PROFILE

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12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1/2011 Total Delta V Departure Delta V Arrival Delta V 7/2011 1/2012 7/2012 1/2013 7/2013 1/2014 7/2014 1/2015 Total Delta V Limit

Launch Window 1

Launch Window 2

Launch Window 3

Launch Window 4

Launch Window 5

Delta V [m/s]

Departure Date

Departure, Arrival, and Total Delta-V for Minimum Total Delta-V Trajectories from LEO to Apophis.

LAUNCH WINDOW (1)

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8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 Total Delta V Limit 6,000 5,500 5,000 Nominal Mission Launch Date Primary Window 53 Days Alternate Window A 13 Days Secondary Window 43 Days Alternate Window B 18 Days Alternate Window C 7 Days

Delta V [m/s]

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

2/20/2014 12/30/2012 12/18/2012 4/17/2012

Optimal Launch Dates Arrival Delta V Limit

Total Delta V Departure Delta V Arrival Delta V -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 Departure Date

12/25/2012 4/10/2014 4/13/2014 4/16/2014 2/10/2014 6/8/2012 4/20/2013 4/5/2013 5/17/2013 2/3/2014 5/9/2012

Departure, Arrival, and Total Delta-V for Minimum Total Delta-V Trajectories from LEO to Apophis for Specified Launch Windows

LAUNCH WINDOW (2)

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Minimum Total Delta-V Earth-Apophis Transfer Trajectories for each Launch Window

Mission Timeline for Primary Launch Date

Date (initial) 5/9/2012 5/9/2012 5/9/2012 5/9/2012 6/8/2012 3/15/2013 3/15/2013 3/25/2013 3/25/2013 4/24/2013 4/24/2013 2/18/2014

No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Launch

Mission Phase

Earth Departure: PTV Maneuver Stage Separation Commissioning Cruise Trailing Capture Maneuver Initial Survey Apophis Capture Maneuver Observation Apophis Withdraw Maneuver Tracking Extended Mission

FORESIGHT LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY AND TIMELINE

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6,500 6,000 5,500 814 m/s 1,851 m/s 5,000 2,047 m/s 4,500 1,231 m/s 4,000 533 m/s 90 m/s 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 3,600 m/s 1,500 1,000 500 0 Primary Alternate A Secondary Launch Window Alternate B Alternate C 3,600 m/s 3,600 m/s 3,600 m/s 3,600 m/s 90 m/s 638 m/s 90 m/s 224 m/s 90 m/s 90 m/s 766 m/s 2,144 m/s 513 m/s 176 m/s 1,156 m/s 192 m/s 515 m/s

ES Rem aining ES Arrival Burn ES Departure Burn PTV Reserve PTV Departure Burn

Delta V [m/s

Spacecraft and Propulsive Transfer Vehicle (PTV) Delta-V Budget for Optimum Launch Dates within each Launch Window

FORESIGHT DELTA-V BUDGET: ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT AND PROPULSIVE TRANSFER VEHICLE

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16 m/s 2,500 353 m/s 2,250 100 m/s 60 m/s 2,000 996 m/s 100 m/s 60 m/s

32 m/s 100 m/s 60 m/s Reserve 100 m/s 60 m/s Maneuvering Station-keeping Arrival Burn Departure Burn 355 m/s

1,750 814 m/s

Delta V [m/s]

1,500

1,851 m/s

100 m/s 60 m/s 2,144 m/s

1,250 766 m/s

1,000

2,047 m/s

750 1,231 m/s 500 638 m/s 250 533 m/s 224 m/s 0 Primary Alternate A Secondary Launch Window Alternate B Alternate C

Encounter Spacecraft Delta-V Budget for Optimum Launch Dates within each Launch Window

FORESIGHT DELTA-V BUDGET: ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT

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FORESIGHT SUN-EARTH ANGLES

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 Internal software tools were developed by the Foresight team to accurately propagate Apophiss orbit state and predict the uncertainty in Apophis state as a function of number of measurements and time between measurements An 8th/9th order n-body numerical propagator with a variable step size was used to propagate the actual and dispersed orbits of Apophis forward from a given state and epoch
The Sun, all of the planets and the Earth's moon are considered in the gravitational model. The perturbing effects of the large asteroid-belt asteroids Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta are also included. Solar pressure and the Yarkovsky effect are not modeled, but their associated uncertainties are addressed in the analysis For a given starting condition, the propagators step-wise integration tolerances were set so that results for position accuracies were on the order of a few meters in 2029
Guess Initial State, X0_p

Propagate X0_p

Set New Initial State, X0_p

No

Calculate Objective Function, f

Range Measurements, meas

Converged?

Optimizer

Yes

X0 = X0_p

ORBIT DETERMINATION METHOD

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1000

Maximum 2029 Error Ellipse Dimension (km)

100

300 Day Duration

14 km Target 10

0.1 4/21/2013

6/20/2013

8/19/2013

10/18/2013 12/17/2013 Date

2/15/2014

4/16/2014

Apophis Error Ellipse Reduction for Target Mission (With Fine Monte Carlo)

DECREASE IN ERROR ELLIPSE WITH OBSERVATION TIME

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2 Initial After Mission Earth -12 -11 -10 -9 -8

-7.49000

1 0

-axis Position (Earth radii)

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3 -2 -1 0 -1 Location Probability -2 -3 -4

-7.49500

-7.50000

-7.50500

-axis Position (Earth radii)

-7.51000

+/- 3 = 6 km

-7.51500

-7.52000

-5 -6 -7

-7.52500

-7.53000

-7.53500

-7.54000 -1.50500 -1.50000 -1.49500 -1.49000 -1.48500 -axis Position (Earth radii)

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-axis Position (Earth radii)

Initial and Final Position Error in 2029 after 300 Days of Tracking (B-Plane Error Ellipse Comparison) (Assuming no Additional Earth Observations after 2012)

FORESIGHT MISSION: EFFECT ON OVERALL ERROR ELLIPSE

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P O

A V

C E

E R

C V

R I

A E

F W

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FORESIGHT ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT (ES)

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Component Propulsion S/C Main Engine22 S/C RCS23 PTV Main Engine24 PTV RCS
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Name Aerojet 445 Aerojet 2 R-40B Aerojet 21 Kapton Heaters

Manufacturer Aerojet Aerojet Aerojet Aerojet

No. on ES 1 6 0 0

No. on PTV 0 0 1 4

Specifications Thrust (vac): 445 N, Isp: 309 s, T/W: 24.39 Thrust (vac): 2 N, Isp: 265 s, T/W: 0.75 Thrust (vac): 4000 N, Isp: 293 s, T/W: 56.4 Thrust (vac): 21 N, Isp: 285 s, T/W: 3.81, Quad configuration

Thermal Control Heaters26 Power Batteries21 Solar Array22 VES 180 Triple Junction Saft 6 Minco 16 0 -200 to 200C range, Kapton/FEP material

Location Probability Li-Ion space technology, specific energy: 165

2 Spectrolab 2 0 Wh/kg, storage: 180 Wh each GaInP2/GaAs/Ge, BOL power: 289 W/m2, BOL efficiency: 22.5%, EOL power: 256 W/m2, 4% degradation per year 16 5-Amp high side relays, Integrated 200-W LiIon battery charger, 96 12-bit ADCs, Digital solar array peak power tracking RISC Microprocessor, 1856 MIPS at 800 MHz with 256 MB RAM, RS-422 / USB / Ethernet compatible NAND-based SSD, read rate: 57 MBps, write rate: 32 MBps 1000 MIPS @ 100 MHz, 128 KB Flash, 8448 bytes data RAM, 8 12-bot ADCs, 2 12-bit DACs 60 FOV, accuracy 1 22 FOV, <1 arcsec cross-track accuracy, 5 arcsec boresight accuracy Produce 30 mNm torque, hold 1000 mNm angular momentum, mounted with 1 each on XYZ axes and 1 on skew axis Fiber Optic Gyro, silicon accelerometers and electronics S-Band, 50 bps data rate X-Band, 17 kbps data rate at 0.5 AU, SNR: 3, efficiency: 55% DSN Compatible, X-Band transmit and receive, 2.0 dB Noise Figure, -157.7 dBm Receiver Threshold, 10 ns Ranging Delay Variation, 0.5 ns Carrier Delay Variation DSN Compatible, S-Band transmit and receive, < 2.5 dB Noise Figure, Delay Variation, 0.5 ns Carrier Delay Variation

Distribution

PDU

SpaceDev

Command and Data Handling

27

CPU

PowerPC 750 FX
28

IBM Samsung Silicon Labs AeroAstro Terma Dynacon Northrop Grumman Ball Aerospace Ball Aerospace General Dynamics General Dynamics

1 2 0 12 2 4 1 2 1

0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

Memory SCC
29

16 GB SSD 8051 MSS HE-5AS MicroWheel 1000 LN-200S Custom Custom

Attitude Determination and Control Sun Sensor30 Star Tracker

31

Reaction Wheel32 IMU

33

Communications Low Gain Antenna34 High Gain Antenna X-Band Transponder35 S-Band Transceiver36
34

SDST Multi-Mode S-Band Transceiver

FORESIGHT SUBSYSTEM COMPONENT SPECIFICATIONS

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MASS BREAKDOWN STATEMENT: ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT (ES)

No. 1.0 Name Structures and Mechanisms Primary Structure Secondary Structure Fuel Tank Oxidizer Tank Pressurant Tank Solar Array Support Structure Solar Array Actuators 2.0 Propulsion Main Engine: Aerojet 445 Main Engine Feed Lines Maneuvering Engines: Aerojet 2 (x6) Maneuvering Engine Feed Lines 3.0 Thermal Control Reflective Foil Multi-Layer Insulation Heaters 4.0 Power Batteries: Saft VES 180 (x6) Solar Array: Spectrolab Triple Junction Power Distribution Unit Power Cabling Command and Data Handling CPU: PowerPC 750FX Memory: Samsung 64 GB Solid State Drive (x2) Electronics Module Wiring Attitude Determination and Control Sun Sensors: AeroAstro MSS (x6) Star Sensors: Terma HE-5AS (x2) Reaction Wheels: Dynacon MicroWheel 1000 (x4) Inertial Measurement Unit: LN-200S Communications High Gain Antenna Low Gain Antenna (x2) Small Deep Space Transponder Multi-Mode S-Band Transceiver Margin (20%) Dry Mass Consumables Fuel: MMH Oxidizer: NTO Pressurant: He Wet Mass Payload Advanced Imagery Mechanism (AIM) Laser Altimeter Device (LAD) 13.0 Gross Mass 5.0 5.0 220.3 6.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 4.9 0.1 0.1 1.0 3.7 12.9 0.4 4.4 6.6 1.5 8.9 3.0 0.7 2.9 2.3 13.6 90.2 120.1 45.1 74.4 0.7 210.3 10.0 1.0 3.8 0.2 12.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 5.0 14.8 5.5 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 7.0 Element Mass [kg] Subsystem Mass [kg] 26.0

Location Probability No. 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 Element Name Structures and Mechanisms Propulsion Thermal Control Power Command and Data Handling Attitude Determination and Control Communications Margin (20%) Dry Mass Consumables Wet Mass Payload Gross Mass Mass [kg] 26.0 7.0 5.0 12.1 4.9 12.9 8.9 13.6 90.2 120.1 210.3 10.0 220.3

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0 9.0 10.0

11.0 12.0

MASS STATEMENT: FORESIGHT ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT (ES)

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MASS BREAKDOWN STATEMENT: PROPULSIVE TRANSFER VEHICLE (PTV)

No. 1.0 Structures Primary Structure Secondary Structure Payload Adapter Fuel Tank Oxidizer Tank Pressurant Tank 2.0 Propulsion Main Engine: Aerojet R-40B Main Engine Feed Lines RCS Engines: Aerojet 21 (x16) RCS Engine Feed Lines 3.0 Thermal Control Reflective Foil Multi-Layer Insulation 4.0 Power Batteries: Saft VES 180 (x2) Power Distribution Unit Wiring 5.0 Command and Data Handling Spacecraft Control Computer Electronics Module Wiring Attitude Determination and Control Inertial Measurement Unit: LN-200S Margin (20%) Dry Mass Consumables Fuel: MMH Fuel Reserves / Residuals Oxidizer: NTO Oxidizer Reserves / Residuals Pressurant: He Wet Mass Payload Foresight Spacecraft Gross Mass 0.1 1.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 37.4 224.2 1,163.1 426.1 10.5 702.7 17.3 6.5 1,387.3 220.3 220.3 1,607.6 2.2 0.9 3.1 1.6 2.4 9.7 6.2 6.8 6.8 9.1 9.1 12.1 18.8 13.9 5.5 22.5 22.7 50.2 31.8 Name Element Mass [kg] Subsystem Mass [kg] 133.6

Location Probability No. 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 Structures Propulsion Thermal Control Power Command and Data Handling Attitude Determination and Control Margin (20%) Dry Mass Consumables Wet Mass Payload Gross Mass Element Name Mass [kg] 133.6 31.8 12.1 6.2 1.6 1.5 37.4 224.2 1,163.1 1,387.3 220.3 1,607.6

6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

10.0 11.0 12.0

MASS STATEMENT: PROPULSIVE TRANSFER VEHICLE (PTV)

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FORESIGHT ENCOUNTER SPACECRAFT (ES) CONFIGURATION

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549 cm

462 cm

309 cm

205 cm

Foresight Encounter Spacecraft and PTV in Minotaur IV Payload Fairing

Foresight Encounter Spacecraft and PTV

FORESIGHT SPACECRAFT DIMENSIONS AND LAUNCH VEHICLE PACKAGING

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Life Cycle Cost Statement

Cost Element Name Spacecraft Stages Foresight Encounter Spacecraft Propulsive Transfer Vehicle Scientific Instruments (2) Operations Launch Vehicle: Minotaur IV Total
250 90th: 89.4 % 200 Mean: 90.2 %

DDT&E [$US FY2007] $57.85 M $23.51 M $34.34 M ------------$57.85 M

Acquisition Cost [$US FY2007] $23.74 M $14.77 M $9.27 M Location Probability $6.30 M $20.99 M $22.00 M $73.03 M

Total Cost [$US FY2007] $81.59 M $38.28 M $43.61 M $6.30 M $20.99 M $22.00 M $130.88 M

Frequency

150
Launch Vehicle

100 50

LOM

Propulsive Transfer Vehicle (PTV) Encounter Spacecraft (ES) Instruments

5.2%

0.8%

3.2%

0.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Contribution of Architecture Elements (% )

0 88.6% 89.0% 89.3% 89.6% 90.0% 90.3% 90.6% 90.9% 91.3% 91.6%

Probability of Mission Success (% )

Histogram of Reliability Results (20,000 Monte Carlo Trials)

Contribution of Architecture Elements to Loss of Mission (LOM)

COST AND RELIABILITY

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 Potential future analysis

Refinement of baseline concept (alternative tank designs, V split, etc.) Update to Apophis knowledge since initial design Analysis of alternative instrument suite Alternative target Integration with Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC) low cost bus approaches Examine commonalties and alternatives for NASA Ames common modular bus Potential small satellite technology advancement (funding: NASA SBIR/STTR, etc.)

Other thoughts
ESPA ring designs may offer potential cost savings for asteroid missions, but schedule and launch integration issues may affect overall benefits Transponder missions do not have to be technology demonstration missions Potential leveraging of multiple funding sources (multiple end users, the U.S. DoD/NASA/DHS) for actual mission Consider use of Falcon 1e: 1,010 kg to LEO for $11.27 M (FY2009, Q4)
LEO: 185 km circular orbit launched due east (9.1 deg)

2009 IAA Planetary Defense Conference White Paper Notes

Planetary defense is multilayered response Low cost non-science focused reconnaissance missions are one part of an overall response strategy (multiple types of missions: transponder, thermal IR, etc.) Potential need to prioritize order of data required for reconnaissance missions (radio science before thermal IR for instance or in what combination) Leverage existing global small satellite community (already in progress in various ways)

FORWARD WORK AND THOUGHTS

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Business Address: SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) 1200 Ashwood Parkway, Suite 506, Atlanta, GA 30338 U.S.A. Phone: 1+770.379.8000 | Fax: 1+770.379.8001 | www.sei.aero | info@sei.aero

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