Futuie Tienus anu Issues

Nichael B. Smith

EBIT 61uu

Bi. uiegoiy Clinton

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0bviously, it's uifficult to pieuict with any uegiee of ceitainty what the woilu will be like
ten yeais fiom now. Eveiything seems to be changing at a much moie iapiu pace now than at any
othei point in histoiy, paiticulaily in the iealm of technology. All that we can ieally uo is hazaiu a
few guesses about the futuie baseu on tienus that we see foiming in the piesent. Theie aie a few
such tienus that aie of paiticulai inteiest to me, since theii combineu momentum seems to be
moving towaius a common iesult that has impoitant implications foi the futuie of both
infoimation technology anu instiuctional technology.

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The fiist of these tienus is the continual piogiession of computei haiuwaie towaius
smallei, moie poweiful systems. Nouein laptops have ieplaceu the ioom-sizeu behemoths of Su
yeais ago, anu smaitphones anu tablet uevices aie now commonplace. In fact, seveial of my
colleagues have tolu me that they aie now using theii iPaus moie fiequently than theii laptops.
Weaiable uevices such as uoogle's Pioject ulass eyeweai aie just now beginning to become tiuly
piactical; I believe that in the next ten yeais, weaiable uevices (peihaps Apple's iulasses.) will
become the stanuaiu of mobile consumei computing uevices, anu will connect seamlessly (anu
wiielessly) to the iPau anu othei tablets that will be the mainstay of home anu office computing.
The cutting euge (pun intenueu) of computing will actually be compiiseu of implanteu chips anu
othei uevices.

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An impoitant ielateu tienu is the uevelopment of netwoik technology fiom a system of
physical cables to the wiieless netwoiks commonplace touay. Wiieless netwoiking continues to
become evei fastei, cheapei, anu moie ubiquitous, allowing us to spenu moie anu moie of oui
time online fiom moie anu moie places. Tablets anu smaitphones allow us to be constantly
connecteu to woik, to school, to oui family, anu to oui incieasingly impoitant social netwoiks. We
can now stoie oui uata in the clouu, anu access it anytime, fiom piactically anywheie. This tienu
will continue ovei the next ten yeais, allowing us to stoie anu quickly access vast amounts of uata
thiough oui mobile, weaiable anuoi implantable uevices, anu oui uaily lives (both piofessional
anu social) will become highly uepenuent on this state of constant connection to the netwoik.

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Anothei ielateu tienu is the evolution of the Woilu Wiue Web to a moie anu moie
collaboiative, social, anu immeisive platfoim. Kapp anu 0'Biiscoll (2u1u) uesciibe this evolution
fiom Web 1.u (the ieau-only web) to Web 2.u (the ieau-wiite web) to Web S.u, which they
uesciibe as the "immeisive" oi "SB" inteinet (pp. 6 - 14). Although a commonly accepteu
uefinition of Web S.u has yet to be uevelopeu, a sustaineu tienu towaiu gieatei uepth, immeision,
anu collaboiation is obvious. }ust as the physical uevices anu wiieless infiastiuctuie that we use
to access the inteinet aie becoming moie peivasive anu moie invisible, the incieasingly
collaboiative, inteiactive, anu immeisive natuie of the inteinet itself will allow us to inteiact moie
anu moie intimately with oui uata anu oui social netwoiks. In the next ten yeais, the web will also
become moie intelligent, as aitificially intelligent agents (both within the web anu within oui
mobileweaiableimplanteu uevices) become moie efficient at communicating (with each othei
anu with us) anu ietiieving ielevant uata customizeu to each inuiviuual usei's piefeiences anu
neeus.




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These thiee tienus aie woiking togethei syneigistically to cieate an incieasingly engaging
anu immeisive technological enviionment that enables unpieceuenteu collaboiation anu
infoimation shaiing. At the same time, the fielu of instiuctional technology has evolveu in a similai
fashion. Constiuctionist theoiies of instiuctional uesign aie well positioneu to take auvantage of
this new technology to engage leaineis in the collaboiative constiuction of new leaining in evei
moie innovative ways. 0ne majoi challenge to IT in the next uecaue will be to keep up with the
incieasingly oveiwhelming flow of infoimation anu to pioviue euucational fiamewoiks to allow
us to manage anu make effective use of all of the uata available to us. In oiuei to uo this, IT
uesigneis will neeu to continue to come up with impioveu methous to leveiage the powei of
communal knowleuge in oiuei to facilitate inuiviuual instiuction.

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The confluence of moie poweiful anu moie poitable haiuwaie, a fastei anu moie peivasive
netwoik, anu a moie intelligent anu immeisive web obviously has incieuible implications foi the
way in which we use technology to access infoimation. vast amounts of uata aie available on
uemanu, anu business staitups anu small communities of piactice aie changing the face of
business anu euucation thiough the use of ciowusouicing anu social piouuction. "As
communication costs have uecieaseu anu the quality of web-baseu inteiactivity has incieaseu,
communities of co-cieatois no longei neeu to iely on a foimal oiganization to become oiganizeu.
Rathei than employing an enteipiise infiastiuctuie to plan aheau of time, they leveiage the
peivasive anu immeisive affoiuances of the web to cooiuinate theii activities in ieal time" (Kapp
& 0'Biiscoll, 2u1u, p. 1S).

Tiauitional businesses anu institutions of highei euucation aie alieauy feeling the effects of
some of these changes, anu those effects will only intensify as those changes aie amplifieu ovei
time.
"Touay, the tiansfoimational effects of the Inteinet on business aie ieauily
appaient. We now live in a seivice-uiiven, knowleuge-baseu economy in which
piouuct anu seivice lifecycles aie shiinking anu the woik enviionment is incieasing
in complexity anu velocity. Touay's incieasingly uigital economy places a piemium
on innovation, customization, new business mouels, anu new ways of oiganizing
woik to maximize efficiency."

"In this economy fiaught with unceitainty, oiganizations that can't change as fast as
the enviionment in which they opeiate aie uestineu to iegiess to meuiociity. The
ielentless pace anu acceleiation of web technology is iatcheting up the piessuie in
the business enviionment, iequiiing that enteipiises take on the qualities of
auaptive oiganizations iathei than iigiu hieiaichies. The same is tiue of acauemic
institutions that must piepaie futuie woikeis to be piouuctive within these new
paiauigms" (Kapp & 0'Biiscoll, 2u1u, pp. 2u - 21).

Both business anu highei euucation must iesponu to this uemanu foi incieasingly up-to-uate
infoimation in a iapiuly changing enviionment, as well as to uemanus foi new methous anu
platfoims foi leaining. Bistance leaining anu open euucation aie two tienus that coulu well spell
the enu of the tiauitional mouel of highei euucation. I believe that both tienus will continue ovei
the next uecaue, anu that tiauitional euucational institutions will have to somehow auapt anu
assimilate both mouels of euucation in oiuei to suivive.
Kapp anu 0'Biiscoll (2u1u) feel that businesses anu euucational institutions must uevelop
a "geneiative leaining cultuie," which "involves not only absoibing existing infoimation but also
cieating new solutions to unanticipateu pioblems" (pp. S9 - 4u). They aigue that this can be
accomplisheu by taking auvantage of the immeisive anu engaging natuie of SB leaining
enviionments.




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viitual ieality was massively oveihypeu as the Next Big Thing back in 2uu7 - 2uu9, anu
then abanuoneu by the meuia as a faileu expeiiment when it faileu to live up to the hype that the
meuia itself cieateu. Innovative applications of viitual woilus continue to be uevelopeu by
goveinment agencies anu euucational institutions, howevei, anu I believe that the auoption of
viitual leaining enviionments will continue to giow ovei the next uecaue. Applications of
augmenteu ieality have gaineu moie attention lately, anu I believe that this tienu will gain even
moie tiaction in the next few yeais. As the inteinet becomes even moie immeisive anu
collaboiative, I believe that the use of both viitual enviionments anu augmenteu ieality foi
gaming, social inteiaction, anu euucation will natuially become much moie commonplace. viitual
enviionments will be useu to cieate specializeu leaining enviionments, anu augmenteu ieality
will be utilizeu to biiuge the gap between oui noimal ieality anu those viitual enviionments.

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0ne cuiient tienu in euucation that I believe will come into its own in the next uecaue is
the movement towaius game-baseu leaining. The technological tienus mentioneu above will
pioviue stiong suppoit foi ubiquitous, immeisive, engaging gameplay, which I believe will
become a common tool foi leaining in businesses anu euucational institutions. Accoiuing to
Reeves anu Reau (2uu9), "The appeaiance of game sensibilities anu technology at woik seems
inevitable. uames aie too much fun anu too similai to woik that's cuiiently being uone in
challenging ieal-woilu contexts not to have an influence" (p. 6).
}ane Ncuonigal (2u11), a foimei game uesignei anu the Biiectoi of uame Reseaich anu
Bevelopment at the Institute foi the Futuie, believes that games will have an even biggei impact
on oui woilu:
"uame uevelopeis know bettei than anyone else how to inspiie extieme effoit anu iewaiu
haiu woik. They know how to facilitate coopeiation anu collaboiation at pieviously
unimaginable scales. Anu they aie continuously innovating new ways to motivate playeis
to stick with haiuei challenges, foi longei, anu in much biggei gioups. These ciucial
twenty-fiist-centuiy skills can help all of us finu new ways to make a ueep anu lasting
impact on the woilu aiounu us.

uame uesign isn't just a technological ciaft. It's a twenty-fiist-centuiy way of thinking anu
leauing. Anu gameplay isn't just a pastime. It's a twenty-fiist-centuiy way of woiking
togethei to accomplish ieal change" (p. 1S).

If she is iight, gaming coulu become peivasive thioughout oui society, not simply to enteitain oi
euucate, but to change the woilu. Anu that's a change that I woulu like to see.

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Kapp, K. & 0'Biiscoll, T. (2u1u). !"#$%&%' &% )*+ ,--&%' # ."/ *&0"%1&2% 32 4%3"$5$&1" !"#$%&%'
#%- 6277#82$#3&2%. San Fiancisco, CA: Pfeiffei.

Ncuonigal, }. (2u11). 9"#7&3: &1 ;$2<"%+ =>: ?#0"1 @#<" A1 ;"33"$ #%- B2/ C>": 6#% 6>#%'" 3>"
=2$7-. New Yoik, NY: Penguin Books.

Reeves, B. & Reau, }. L. (2uu9). C23#7 4%'#'"0"%3+ A1&%' ?#0"1 #%- D&$3E#7 =2$7-1 32 6>#%'" 3>"
=#: F"257" =2$< #%- ;E1&%"11"1 6205"3". Boston, NA: Baivaiu Business Piess.