Exercise 1 For this analysis we have chosen the following macroeconomic indicators for 2011 for the Asian

countries for which the data was taken from the International Monetary Fund website: - !ross domestic "roduct based on "urchasing-"ower-"arity #$$$% "er ca"ita !&$ 2011 #International '(&% - )*"ort volume of goods and services 2011 #+ of !&$% - Im"ort volume of goods and services 2011 #+ of !&$% ,he initial collected data was for all -- countries. but as shown below for the year 2011 the data for Ira/ is incom"lete as due to the "olitical situation in the country there were no Im"orts or )*"orts of goods and services. therefore the analysis has been done for the rest of the -0 countries1
No. Crt. Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP 2011 ( nternationa! "#D) $%port &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (( o' GDP) mport &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (( o' GDP)

Country

1 2 , + . * / 0 10 11 12 1, 1+ 11. 1* 1/ 10

)ahrain )ang!adesh )hutan )runei Darussa!am Cambodia China Democratic 1epub!ic o' 2imor-3este ndia ndonesia Iraq s!amic 1epub!ic o' 4'ghanistan s!amic 1epub!ic o' ran srae! 5apan 5ordan 6a7a8hstan 6orea 6uwait 6yrgy7 1epub!ic

2*+,,.-0 1.....2 -*+*.+1 +0*10.,+ 22-1.1+ /2//./2 ,0,1.1+ ,.0/.20 +.-*.1, 3825.78 0.0.** 10*0*.0+ ,0,+*.,2 ,+.+-.00 -*-0.2/ 1,+/+.0/ ,1+10.+* ,0+0*.*1 2,.,.21

-..,0 1+.** -+.-/ ,.0* -,.,* 1-./2 +.** 1+.0..-1 +.-0 -0.,2 +.// +.*2 ..+, ,-.21 11.1/ +.,, 11.*1

-11../ 0.+. ..1, ,.0* 1.00 1+.00 ,1.-. 11.11 0../ 2.-0 --.20 ,.-10.10 0..1+.-/ 11.., ..,, 2.0/

20
No. Crt.

3ao Peop!e9s Democratic 1epub!ic

Country

2-0*.-0
Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP 2011 ( nternationa! "#D)

11.20
$%port &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (( o' GDP)

1..00
mport &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (( o' GDP)

21 22 2, 2+ 22. 2* 2/ 20 ,0 ,1 ,2 ,, ,+ ,,. ,* ,/ ,0 +0 +1 +2 +, ++

3ebanon :a!aysia :a!di&es :ongo!ia :yanmar Nepa! ;man Pa8istan Phi!ippines <atar 1epub!ic o' =emen 1ussia #audi 4rabia #ingapore #ri 3an8a #yrian 4rab 1epub!ic 2aiwan Pro&ince o' China 2a>i8istan 2hai!and 2ur8ey 2ur8menistan "nited 4rab $mirates "7be8istan ?ietnam

1---*.2. 1-,/+.-. 000-.01 +,/,.-0 1,0..-0 1,2/.0* 2-0-,../ 2/-1.0. ,/00.10 10,2*-.*0 2.,-.02 1./+0./0 2-,+-.+0 -012,..0 -.11./2 -20,.,,*20/.*1 202/.,* 0-0/.01 1+0*..0, *,-*..0 +0+00.-2 ,2+/..2 ,,2..,1

0.+, -0.0. 0.0. 1-./2.10 -1.01 +.,+ 2.0+ -.,/ ,0.12 -1.22.++ 12.0. ..2. /.., 1.*+ *.+* /.*, ,.0/ ..21 2,.** -..-0 ,.0* 1.+2

2..0 1.0, ..02 2/.,+ 22../ -1.01 2-.., *.*0 ,.1. 2./1-.01/.*, 11.0. *.,* *..* +.-, ..2. ..-/ ,.-0 /.+, 1,.*+ -2.0, 20.10 +.02

As the chosen variables have the most com"lete and u" to date data we have decided to use them as the analysis would be more accurate1 In Fig1 1 it is "resented the amount of !&$ "er ca"ita for the -0 countries:

As you can see in the chart. not all the countries have a good economic welfare. as the lowest value for the !&$ "er ca"ita in 2011 is 230144- International '(&. for the Islamic 5e"ublic of Afghanistan. while the the highest value is for 6atar. where the !&$ "er ca"ita is 1002471327 International '(&1 In the following chart. Fig12 it is re"resented the re"artition of the "ercentage from !&$ for 2011 for all the countries in Asia for the )*"ort volume of goods and services:

As indicated above in the chart. the country with the lowest "ercentage from !&$ in the e*"ort volume of goods and services in Asia for 2011 is 'nited Arab )mirates with -31-22+ and also
,

the country with the highest "ercentage from !&$ in the e*"ort volume of goods and services in Asia for 2011 is 8a9akhstan1 :hen s"eaking of im"orts. the situation is the same as "er !&$ and )*"orts volume. as the below chart. Fig10. shows that the situation of the Im"orts volume for goods and services for 2011 for the countries in Asia is very fluctuating as some countries have high "ercentages from the !&$ in the im"orts and some very small "ercentages. even negative1

In the following charts it is shown that most of the countries in Asia. for 2011. have a very low !&$. e*"ort and im"ort volume of goods and services1 For !$&. the values for most of the countries are very high #Fig1- and Fig17%. as indicated in the charts below1 ,he gra"hical re"resentation is based on fre/uency intervals1

,he !&$ average for 2011 is 1300-1;2 international '(& and the standard deviation for the !&$ is 20---142 International '(&. therefore on average the value of the !&$ for 2011 for the countries in Asia can be with higher or lower with 20---142 International '(& than the average
+

of 1300-1;2 international '(& with a small variation of 01;;+. which means that 2-17+ of the countries in Asia the !&$ values can be between -110117 International '(& and 2;773130 International '(& #below table%1
GDP per capita (PPP) 2011 distribution (no. o' countries) nternationa! "#D 33 0 2-000 -0000 *-000 100000 Grand 2ota! "3 2-000 -0000 *-000 10000 0 12-00 0

3e&e! @igh :edium #ma!! 10 1 0 0 1 10 1 1 ,1 ?ery high ?ery sma!! ,1 Grand 2ota! ,1 10 1 0 1 +,

If we consider the fre/uency intervals. re"resented in the table above and also in chart Fig1- and Fig17. we can say that for an average !&$ of 21;02100 International '(&. with 27+ "robability. the !&$ values for 2011 for 2-17+ of the countries in Asia can be found between 722210; International '(& and 21222137 International '(& and that that these values can be higher or lower than the average with 1;327124 International '(& with a small variation of 01;3+1 <ooking closer at the )*"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia. we can say that the average "ercentage from the e*"orts is 3137+ and that on average. 2-17+ of the values for the e*"ort volume can be found between 1177+ and 11147+ as the values for each country are higher or lower than the average e*"ort volume with ;17-+. with a small variation of 01--+ as re"resented in the below table1
$%port &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (no. o' countries) - ( o' GDP 33 -..2 10.10 2*.Grand 2ota! "3 2 10.10 2*.,. 21 / 1 2 1 / 21 2 11

3e&e! @igh :edium #ma!! ?ery high ?ery sma!! 11 Gran d 2ota! 11 21 / 1 2 +,

As you can see. for a very large number of countries the e*"ort volume of goods and services is either small or very small1 #Fig13 and Fig14%

=n the other side. for the im"ort volume of goods and services in 2011 in Asia. for most of the countries the volume is small and medium. but we need to take into consideration the fact that the analy9ed data for the im"ort volume of goods and services in 2011 also contains negative values which also im"act the average and also the value of the !&$ #fig1; and Fig12%1

,herefore. the average "ercentage of the im"orts of goods and services for 2011 is ;17-+ and that on average. 2-17+ of the values for the im"ort volume can be found between 0100+ and 10143+ as the values for each country are higher or lower than the average im"ort volume with ;142+ with a small variation of 0107+1
mport &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (no. o' countries) - ( o' GDP 33 -12 -2 / 1/ "3 -2 / 1/ 2/

3e&e! @igh :edium #ma!! 22 12 + . ?ery high ?ery sma!! , Grand 2ota! , 22 12 +

2/ Grand 2ota!

,/ + 12 22

2 2

2 +,

As the highest number of countries has a small im"ort volume of goods and services. and for the fre/uency intervals. for the >(MA<<? value. the interval contains both negative and "ositive values1 For all 0 macroeconomic values it can be concluded that that there are differences between all the statistical indicators use to analy9e them as when calculating the average value for each of them. and the standard deviation from the average and also the coefficient of variation. because for the fre/uency intervals. it was used as data for the analysis. the mid"oint of the interval. meaning that not all the values in one interval are e/ual to the mid"oint1

Exercise 2 $roceeding further with the analysis. in the below chart. it is shown a gra"hical re"resentation of the how the !&$ is influences by the e*"orts #Fig110 and below table%1 ,herefore for a 27+ confidence interval the sloa". we can conclude that for each country for which the )*"ort volume in goods and services will increase by 1+. the !&$ will also increase by -32127 International '(&1 ,herefore. if we should increase the e*"orts with the average "ercentage for the e*"ort volume. 3137+. the "redicted !&$ will be 10231102 International '(&1

ntercept $%port &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (( o' GDP)

P-value 0.001.* *

Lower 95% -200.,/+,2 1

Upper 95% 21222..-+.

0.21+02 -

2*/./.0,.1

120,.,/,.. +

As the $-value is 0121-227 which is bigger than 0107 this indicates that the relationshi" between !&$ and the )*"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia is not linear1
Regression Statistics :u!tip!e 1 1 #Auare 4d>usted 1 #Auare #tandard $rror

0.10,02212, ,.*,( 0.01,**.01. 20,0,.+0.0/

;bser&ations

+,

As the coefficient of correlation has a very small value of 0112 and the coefficient of determination as well. 0140+. this indicates that we have a very "oor relationshi" between the !&$ and the )*"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia1 ,aking a look at the relationshi" between the Im"ort volume of goods and services. we can say that for a 27+ confidence interval the sloa". for each country for which the Im"ort volume of goods and services will increase by 1+. the !&$ will also decrease by -722130-34-1 International '(&1 ,herefore. if we should increase the im"orts with the average "ercentage for the im"ort volume. ;17-+. the "redicted !&$ will be 1300-1;2 International '(&1 In the below gra"hical re"resentation of the relationshi" between the Im"ort volume of goods and serviced in 2011 in Asia and the !&$ in 2011 in Asia we can conclude that the date is not homogenous.

In the ne*t table we have some im"ortant data. like the $-value and also the value of the coefficient of correlation and the coefficient of determination:

ntercept mport &o!ume o' goods and ser&ices 2011 (( o' GDP)

P-value 2.11.0-$00.1-0*--00 *

Lower 95% 120-2.,,+. 1 12+,.+**11 0

Upper 95% 20-+/.10+. + 10/.20**.. *

As the $-value is higher 0107. it can be concluded that the relationshi" between the im"ort volume of goods and services in 2011 in Asia and the !&$ for 2011 in Asia is not linear1
Regression Statistics :u!tip!e 1 1 #Auare 4d>usted 1 #Auare #tandard $rror ;bser&ations

0.222020*1, +.0*( 0.02.-1-++ 201*1./+*,* +,

As both the coefficient of correlation #0122% and the coefficient of determination #-124+% have very small values. we can conclude that there is a very "oor relationshi" between the !&$ and the Im"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia1 In conclusion we can say that the analy9ed data for the Im"ort and )*"ort volume of goods and services in 2011 for the countries in Asia has a big influence in the value of the !&$ as it will increase #when the e*"ort volume increases% or decrease #when the im"ort volume will increase% according to the analysis I the case study. although the relationshi" between the 0 variable is very "oor and not linear as the data series is not homogeneous1

10

Exercise3 After the 5egression analysis was done for the !&$ and !rowth rate of number of car registrations in the automobile industry. we can conclude that 02+ of the car registrations are influenced by the !rowth of the !&$ #5 (/uare @ 0.,22-+*/*+)
Regression Statistics :u!tip!e 1 1 #Auare 4d>usted 1 #Auare #tandard $rror ;bser&ations

0.-.*0,20/+ 0.,22-+*/*+ 0.20,00,+,+ 10.02.,+*02 2-

After the 5egression analysis was done for the !rowth rate of number of car registrations in the automobile industry and for ()A,. we can conclude that 12+ of the car registrations for ()A, are influenced by the !rowth of the !rowth rate of number of car registrations in the automobile Industry #5 (/uare @ 0.101112+0-).
Regression Statistics :u!tip!e 1 1 #Auare 4d>usted 1 #Auare #tandard $rror ;bser&ations 0.+,*1.+12 0.101112+0 0.0*---*1, / 1-.++10+0* 0

,herefore if the !&$ in ("ain grows with at least 02+ this will determine a growth in the car registration "ercentage for ()A, of at least 12+

11