Soal

Data on the number of VCR sold each period is available,

Time Period Number of VCR Sold
1
33
2
38
3
31
4
35
5
30
6
36
7
34
8
39
9
39
10
36
11
40
12
38
13
37
14
39
15
32
16
38
17
37
18
39
19
37
20
35
21
37
22
34
23
35
24
36

Use excel and/or solver to solve the tasks below!

Jawab

1. Your boss wants to use using 2-month moving average and 4-month
moving average.Which model is more accurate with respect to MSE?
a. 2-month moving average forecast
Time Period

Number of
VCR Sold

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

33
38
31
35
30
36
34
39
39
36
40
38
37
39
32
38
37
39
37
35
37
34
35
36

Calculations

Moving Average
(2 month)

(33+38)/2
(38+31)/2
(31+35)/2
(35+30)/2
(30+36)/2
(36+34)/2
(34+39)/2
(39+39)/2
(39+36)/2
(36+40)/2
(40+38)/2
(38+37)/2
(37+39)/2
(39+32)/2
(32+38)/2
(38+37)/2
(37+39)/2
(39+37)/2
(37+35)/2
(35+37)/2
(37+34)/2
(34+35)/2

35,5
34,5
33
32,5
33
35
36,5
39
37,5
38
39
37,5
38
35,5
35
37,5
38
38
36
36
35,5
34,5

b. 4-month moving average forecast

Error

Error^2

-4,5
0,5
-3
3,5
1
4
2,5
-3
2,5
0
-2
1,5
-6
2,5
2
1,5
-1
-3
1
-2
-0,5
1,5
Total
MSE

20,25
0,25
9
12,25
1
16
6,25
9
6,25
0
4
2,25
36
6,25
4
2,25
1
9
1
4
0,25
2,25
152,5
6,93181

Time Period

Number of
VCR Sold

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

33
38
31
35
30
36
34
39
39
36
40
38
37
39
32
38
37
39
37
35
37
34
35
36

Calculations

Moving Average
(4 month)

(33+38+31+35)/4
(38+31+35+30)/4
(31+35+30+36)/4
(35+30+36+34)/4
(30+36+34+39)/4
(36+34+39+39)/4
(34+39+39+36)/4
(39+39+36+40)/4
(39+36+40+38)/4
(36+40+38+37)/4
(40+38+37+39)/4
(38+37+39+32)/4
(37+39+32+38)/4
(39+32+38+37)/4
(32+38+37+39)/4
(38+37+39+37)/4
(37+39+37+35)/4
(39+37+35+37)/4
(37+35+37+34)/4
(35+37+34+35)/4

34,25
33,5
33
33,75
34,75
37
37
38,5
38,25
37,75
38,5
36,5
36,5
36,5
36,5
37,75
37
37
35,75
35,25

Error

Error^2

-4,25
2,5
1
5,25
4,25
-1
3
-0,5
-1,25
1,25
-6,5
1,5
0,5
2,5
0,5
-2,75
0
-3
-0,75
0,75
Total
MSE

18,0625
6,25
1
27,5625
18,0625
1
9
0,25
1,5625
1,5625
42,25
2,25
0,25
6,25
0,25
7,5625
0
9
0,5625
0,5625
153,25
7,6625

MSE dari 2-month moving average = 6,93181

MSE dari 4-month moving average = 7,6625
Sehingga MSE 2-month MA < MSE 4-month MA
Jadi berdasarkan nilai MSE, model 2-month moving average lebih akurat dibanding
dengan model 4-month moving average.
2.

You are then asked to forecast VCR sales at time period 25, 26, 27 and 28
using both methods mentioned in number 1!

a. 2-month moving average forecast (time period 25, 26, 27, 28)
Time Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Number of
VCR Sold
33
38
31
35
30
36
34
39
39
36
40
38
37
39
32
38
37
39
37
35
37
34
35
36

Calculations

Moving Average
(2 month)

(33+38)/2
(38+31)/2
(31+35)/2
(35+30)/2
(30+36)/2
(36+34)/2
(34+39)/2
(39+39)/2
(39+36)/2
(36+40)/2
(40+38)/2
(38+37)/2
(37+39)/2
(39+32)/2
(32+38)/2
(38+37)/2
(37+39)/2
(39+37)/2
(37+35)/2
(35+37)/2
(37+34)/2
(34+35)/2
(35+36)/2
(36+35,5)/2
(35,5+35,75)/2
(35,75+35,625)/2

35,5
34,5
33
32,5
33
35
36,5
39
37,5
38
39
37,5
38
35,5
35
37,5
38
38
36
36
35,5
34,5
35,5
35,75
35,625
35,6875

Jadi, jumlah forecast VCR terjual yaitu pada periode 25,26,27,28 masing-masing
adalah 35.5, 35.75, 35.625, 35.6875

b. 4-month moving average forecast (time period 25, 26, 27, 28)

Time Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Number of
VCR Sold
33
38
31
35
30
36
34
39
39
36
40
38
37
39
32
38
37
39
37
35
37
34
35
36

Calculations

Moving Average
(4 month)

(33+38+31+35)/4
(38+31+35+30)/4
(31+35+30+36)/4
(35+30+36+34)/4
(30+36+34+39)/4
(36+34+39+39)/4
(34+39+39+36)/4
(39+39+36+40)/4
(39+36+40+38)/4
(36+40+38+37)/4
(40+38+37+39)/4
(38+37+39+32)/4
(37+39+32+38)/4
(39+32+38+37)/4
(32+38+37+39)/4
(38+37+39+37)/4
(37+39+37+35)/4
(39+37+35+37)/4
(37+35+37+34)/4
(35+37+34+35)/4
(37+34+35+36)/4
(34+35+36+35,5)/4
(35+36+35,5+35)/4
(36+35,5+35+35,5)/4

34,25
33,5
33
33,75
34,75
37
37
38,5
38,25
37,75
38,5
36,5
36,5
36,5
36,5
37,75
37
37
35,75
35,25
35,5
35
35,5
36

Jadi, jumlah forecast VCR terjual yaitu pada periode 25,26,27,28 masing-masing
adalah 35.5, 35, 35.5, 36
3. If your boss wants to use only data for the last 12 months, which model
would you recommend?
a.

2-month moving average forecast (last 12 months)

Time Period
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Number of
Moving Average
Calculations
VCR Sold
(2 month)
37
39
32
38
37
39
37
35
37
34
35
36

(37+39)/2
(39+32)/2
(32+38)/2
(38+37)/2
(37+39)/2
(39+37)/2
(37+35)/2
(35+37)/2
(37+34)/2
(34+35)/2

38
35,5
35
37,5
38
38
36
36
35,5
34,5

Error

-6
2,5
2
1,5
-1
-3
1
-2
-0,5
1,5
Total
MSE

Error^2

36
6,25
4
2,25
1
9
1
4
0,25
2,25
66
6,6

b. 4-month moving average forecast (last 12 months)

Time Period

Number of
VCR Sold

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

37
39
32
38
37
39
37
35
37
34
35
36

Calculations

Moving Average
(2 month)

(37+39+32+38)/4
(39+32+38+37)/4
(32+38+37+39)/4
(38+37+39+37)/4
(37+39+37+35)/4
(39+37+35+37)/4
(37+35+37+34)/4
(35+37+34+35)/4

36,5
36,5
36,5
37,75
37
37
35,75
35,25

Error

0,5
2,5
0,5
-2,75
0
-3
-0,75
0,75
Total
MSE

Error^2

0,25
6,25
0,25
7,5625
0
9
0,5625
0,5625
24,4375
3,054688

4. Your boss is considering using 2-month weighted moving average, but he

is not sure how much weights should be assigned. How would you
determine the weights? How much weights would you suggest?

Time Period
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Number of
VCR Sold
38
31
35
30
36
34
39
39
36
40
38
37
39
32
38
37
39
37
35
37
34
35
36

W1
W2
W1+W2

Calculations

Weighted Moving
Average ( 2 month)

(0,5 x 33)+(0,5 x 38)

(0,5 x 38)+(0,5 x 31)
(0,5 x 31)+(0,5 x 35)
(0,5 x 35)+(0,5 x 30)
(0,5 x 30)+(0,5 x 36)
(0,5 x 36)+(0,5 x 34)
(0,5 x 34)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 36)
(0,5 x 36)+(0,5 x 40)
(0,5 x 40)+(0,5 x 38)
(0,5 x 38)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 32)
(0,5 x 32)+(0,5 x 38)
(0,5 x 38)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 35)
(0,5 x 35)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 34)
(0,5 x 34)+(0,5 x 35)

35,5
34,5
33
32,5
33
35
36,5
39
37,5
38
39
37,5
38
35,5
35
37,5
38
38
36
36
35,5
34,5

Error
-4,5
0,5
-3
3,5
1
4
2,5
-3
2,5
0
-2
1,5
-6
2,5
2
1,5
-1
-3
1
-2
-0,5
1,5
Total
MSE

Error^2
20,25
0,25
9
12,25
1
16
6,25
9
6,25
0
4
2,25
36
6,25
4
2,25
1
9
1
4
0,25
2,25
152,5
6,931818

0,5
0,5
1

Solusi optimal dari W1 dan W2 yang ditemukan dengan mengguakan Microsoft

Excel Solver is:
W1 = 0,5
W2 = 0,5
5.

Using the weights evaluated in number 4, find the VCR forecast at time
period 25,26, 27 and 28!

Bobot (W1 and W2) digunakan untuk mem-forecast di periode 25, 26, 27, and 28

Number of
Time Period
VCR Sold
1
33
2
38
3
31
4
35
5
30
6
36
7
34
8
39
9
39
10
36
11
40
12
38
13
37
14
39
15
32
16
38
17
37
18
39
19
37
20
35
21
37
22
34
23
35
24
36
25
26
27
28

6.

Calculations

Weighted Moving Average

Forecast (2 month)

(0,5 x 33)+(0,5 x 38)

(0,5 x 38)+(0,5 x 31)
(0,5 x 31)+(0,5 x 35)
(0,5 x 35)+(0,5 x 30)
(0,5 x 30)+(0,5 x 36)
(0,5 x 36)+(0,5 x 34)
(0,5 x 34)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 36)
(0,5 x 36)+(0,5 x 40)
(0,5 x 40)+(0,5 x 38)
(0,5 x 38)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 32)
(0,5 x 32)+(0,5 x 38)
(0,5 x 38)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 39)
(0,5 x 39)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 35)
(0,5 x 35)+(0,5 x 37)
(0,5 x 37)+(0,5 x 34)
(0,5 x 34)+(0,5 x 35)
(0,5 x 35)+(0,5 x 36)
(0,5 x 36)+(0,5 x 35,5)
(0,5 x 35,5)+(0,5 x 35,75)
(0,5 x 75)+(0,5 x 35,625)

35,5
34,5
33
32,5
33
35
36,5
39
37,5
38
39
37,5
38
35,5
35
37,5
38
38
36
36
35,5
34,5
35,5
35,75
35,625
35,6875

Elaborate your findings by comparing results in number 2 and 5!

menggu
nakan 2month
weighte
d
moving
average
forecast.

Weighted Moving
Average
4-month
2-month
Period Forecast Period Forecast
25
35,5
25
35,5
26
35
26
35,75
27
35,5
27
35,625
28
36
28
35,6875

Moving Average
2-month
Period Forecast
25
35,5
26
35,75
27
35,625
28
35,6875

Berdasarkan data diatas, bisa disimpulkan forecast yang menggunakan 2month moving average dan 2- month weighted moving average memberikan
hasil yang sama pada periode 25,26,27 dan 28. Hal ini ini bisa terjadi, karena
weighted moving average menggunakan bobot yang sama untuk W1 dan W2
masing-masing yaitu 0.5. Oleh karena itu, forecast yang menggunakan 2
metode yang berbeda memberikan hasil yg sama. Jika menggunakan bobot
yang berbeda pada W1 dan W2, hasil forecast mungkin akan bereda dengan
2- month moving average. Begitu juga halnya yang menggunakan 4- month
moving average, juga memberikan hasil yang hampir sama dengan 2- month
moving average dan 2- month weighted moving average pada periode
25,26,27 dan 28. Hal ini terjadi, karena 4- month moving average,
menggunakan data historis yang terbilang sedikit yaitu 4 buah, kemungkinan
hasil akan berbeda jika menggunakan data historis yang lebih banyak lagi
karena semakin banyak data historis yang dipakai, maka akan semakin
smoothing hasil forecast yang dihasilkan