Simulation Design: Easy (Snow Day) Problem: Midterm Exams span five days in the dead of winter.

The weather channel is calling for a 30% chance of snow during each of those five days. What is the probability that it snows at least two of those days? Assumption, Components and Trials: We used a simulation to find out the probability of 2/5 days having snow, using the given probabilities. Each day there is a 30% chance of snow, which we assume does not vary. The component is a single day of snow. Our full trial consists of 5 days, each with a 30% chance of snow. By generating numbers from 1-10, a 1,2, or 3 is counted as a day of snow, while anything higher is counted as a day with no snow. Any set with 2 or more results of 1, 2, or 3 is counted as a success, while any set with 1 or less days of snow is counted as a failure. Simulation: After 50 trials, there was snow on 2 out of 5 days in 26/50 trials, or 52% of the time. See Excel printout for more information. Analysis: This percentage seems reasonable if not a bit high. Snowfall depends on the location, as well as numerous other meteorological factors. A 30% chance of snow every day for 5 without any variation is very unlikely, If we assume that were in Lower Merion, it might not be cold enough everyda y for snow. Other factors such as humidity could also affect snowfall. More data could always be useful, as it would come closer and closer to the true probability.