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STRATFOR - South Africa World Cup Security Assessment
STRATFOR - South Africa World Cup Security Assessment
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Crime
Unlike terrorism, which tends to be driven by ideology, criminal activity is driven by opportunity and the desire for quick cash, and both of those factors will be in abundance during the World Cup. To mitigate against any conceivable security threat, an estimated 44,000 members of the South African Police Service (SAPS), the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) and private security personnel will be deployed at tournament venues, hotels where the teams will be staying and anywhere considered a possible launching point for criminal or terrorist acts (more on these deployments below in the section titled Security Preparations). Many national teams will also have their own security details. The U.S. team, for example, will be guarded by personnel from the State Departments Diplomatic Security Service (DSS).
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
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Foreign governments also have been heavily involved in assisting South African security officials with logistics and communications in preparation for the tournament and will remain involved until it ends. The DSS has extensive experience conducting security for large, high-profile events, and there has been extensive coordination with the German authorities to learn from their experiences hosting the last World Cup, which was held in 2006. These measures will certainly go a long way toward securing the stadiums, hotels and other World Cup venues, most of which are located in city centers. But efforts to secure World Cup activities could displace criminal attacks to more accessible targets outside this ring of security, to urban and rural areas where the police presence will be weaker. Property crime is widespread in South Africa and found in every city throughout the country. The countrys criminal elements tend to be organized and efficient, with gangs often conducting practice runs and extensive preoperational surveillance before hitting hardened targets such as armored cash transporters and ATMs (sometimes using explosives and automatic weapons). Organized-crime leaders are even known to specify high-demand products for theft, including certain models of cars and cell
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
phones and other electronics. In the pursuit of cash or valuables, criminals are known to use extreme violence against anyone attempting to stop them. While such extreme measures would not likely be employed against unarmed civilians during the World Cup, firearms, knives and other weapons are plentiful in South Africa and are frequently used if a victim resists. Most crime in South Africa takes place in underdeveloped and poorly policed townships outside of the main city centers. However, criminals certainly do not limit themselves to townships, and in order to pursue wealthier targets they are known to attack in upscale neighborhoods and on downtown streets. In 2007, the wife of prominent businessman and senior African National Congress (ANC) politician Tokyo Sexwale was targeted in a carjacking in an upscale, well-policed Johannesburg neighborhood. Three hijackers in a vehicle cut off Judy Sexwales BMW in a parking lot, forced her from the car and sped off in it, all in about 10 seconds. The incident occurred at 11 a.m., with numerous bystanders looking on. Carjackers do not discriminate between white, black, foreigner or local; the trigger is the appearance of wealth mainly clothes, accoutrements and cars. Carjacking has become so rampant in South Africa that many South Africans do not stop at stop signs if they perceive any potential risk as they approach an intersection. Suggesting an even greater threat than that posed by local street gangs and criminals, STRATFOR sources say that criminals from Nigeria are planning to travel to South Africa and take advantage of the throngs of tourists attending World Cup events during the month-long tournament. Along with Chinese and Russians, Nigerians are leading organized-crime figures in South Africa, focusing on fraud and black-market activities. Driven by economic desperation, Zimbabweans also present a significant, though less sophisticated, criminal threat in South Africa. It is likely that migratory criminals from other African countries will also prey upon World Cup visitors, contributing to the prevailing threat. This criminal element will include everything from the relatively harmless hawkers of African curios who will be found outside every tournament venue and major hotel to organized gangs that will surveil unsuspecting tourists and rob them when the opportunities arise. Not all criminal activity in South Africa involves property crime. Among all the worlds countries, South Africa has the highest incidence of reported rapes per capita. While rapists do not specifically target foreigners, gangs often use the same level of speed and precision to identify and attack rape victims as they do in conducting carjackings. Rape is also employed to instill fear in victims, particularly white victims, during home invasions. Because of the high level of police protection in the city centers during the month-long World Cup, tourists should be relatively secure in these areas, but the risk of being targeted by opportunistic rapists and other criminals will increase in outlying areas. Finally, rape carries the associated risk of contracting HIV/AIDS, since South Africa has a high incidence of the disease (in 2008, approximately 11 percent of South Africans had been diagnosed with HIV/AIDS). When visiting South Africa during the World Cup, foreign travelers are advised to be mindful of their surroundings and maintain situational awareness at all times in public areas. Visitors should never expose valuables, including wallets, jewelry, cell phones and cash, any longer than necessary. And they should avoid traveling at night, especially into townships and areas of South African cities that are outside of the more secure and centralized soccer venues. Outlying areas will have scant police protection, since most of the countrys security apparatus will be focused on the World Cup. No matter where they are, foreign visitors are encouraged to travel in large groups (three or more people), since in South Africa, as elsewhere, there is generally more safety in numbers.
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
any geographical region. Grassroots terrorists, on the other hand, may work in groups, but these groups are small cells unaffiliated with known and monitored jihadist entities and are virtually invisible. In both cases, however, the lack of support networks typically limits their capability, and thus the damage they can cause. The low profile of lone wolves and grassroots jihadists generally means they lack experienced bombmakers, operatives and strategists, and their attacks typically come across as amateurish. Nevertheless, given the global attention to South Africa during the World Cup, it would not take a large attack to attract worldwide media coverage.
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
violence, there are no indications that it, or any other grassroots jihadist group in South Africa, is planning to carry out an attack during the World Cup. A recent incident in Angola during that countrys hosting of the African Cup of Nations soccer tournament raised questions about the possibility of a similar domestic terrorist threat in South Africa. In January, the Togo soccer team participating in the tournament in Angolas Cabinda province was attacked by members of the rebel group Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC). Armed with AK-47s, a small number of FLEC fighters, who are opposed to the Angolan governments presence in the oil-rich province, shot at the bus carrying the Togo soccer team as it was traveling to a game, injuring several team members and killing two. Angolas security environment is much less stable than that of South Africa, where no rebel groups on the order of FLEC operate. South Africa also does not have nearly the same level of volatility in its political conflicts as Angola, where disagreements can quickly become violent.
Security Preparations
For the duration of the World Cup tournament, the South African Police Service and the South African National Defense Force will deploy forces to the streets, air and sea to protect against threats to tournament venues. Most of the measures (such as naval patrols off the coast and overflights of fighter jets) are in light of the jihadist threat, which, while unlikely to materialize in an attack, is still seen as a looming worst-case scenario. Private security firms have been contracted by the tournament organizing committee to provide security around and inside the soccer stadiums. Participating teams and attending dignitaries (including visiting heads of state) will likely have security escorts that will include protective motorcades so as not to require closing off streets. Teams will have both primary and alternate travel routes, along with designated safe areas in the event of an incident and stationary protective teams at their hotels. Uniformed and plainclothes security officers will likely be stationed along travel routes between team accommodation sites and the playing venues. As a result of these precautions taken by the participating teams, along with the overall security umbrella provided by the South African government, the window of opportunity to attack a World Cup team will be very small. As a byproduct of these measures, potential attacks will likely be diverted to more accessible soft targets, which could be unsuspecting tourists or bystanders, especially in areas from which police have been pulled to beef up security at tournament venues. South African security agencies do have recent experience safeguarding large sporting events like the World Cup. In June 2009, South Africa hosted the Confederation Cup, an international soccer tournament that gathered eight teams in four different stadiums around the country for two weeks without incident. This time around, South African officials are making even more extensive preparations to secure tournament venues, and remaining concerns largely involve the execution of the security plan in the event of an incident. The federal police and military units to be deployed and the outline of this years World Cup security umbrella include the following: South African air force (SAAF) Gripen fighter jets (currently South Africa has about six operational out of 12 delivered from an order of 26), which will enforce no-fly zones above World Cup venues. The aircraft will rotate to different air force bases depending on threat levels determined for each game. Other SAAF and army aircraft such as smaller Hawk fighter jets, transport planes and helicopters will be mobilized for other duties, including logistics. South African navy ships will be deployed, including patrol corvettes that will be stationed as command platforms in the harbors at Cape Town, Durban and Port Elizabeth to provide additional radar and anti-aircraft coverage.