A Notable Protest in Tajikistan Teaser: A protest in a small town in Tajikistan, along with other simmering discontent in the region,

could lead to increased tensions in the region. (With ST AT!" map# Summar$: An unauthori%ed protest that occurred &une '( in the Tajik town o) *horugh, near the A)ghan border, could ha+e implications )or securit$ in the region. Though the protest was small and reportedl$ was not +iolent, such demonstrations are rare in Tajikistan because the go+ernment,s securit$ apparatus t$picall$ -uashes unrest -uickl$. !urthermore, the protest occurred in a region that was +er$ acti+e in Tajikistan,s ci+il war. The incident does not threaten the Tajik go+ernment, but it ser+es as a reminder o) the simmering tensions in Tajikistan and neighboring countries. Anal$sis: An unauthori%ed rall$ that occurred recentl$ in Tajikistan could ha+e implications )or securit$ in a historicall$ resti+e region. The protest, which drew roughl$ .(/0(// people, occurred &une '( in the Tajik town o) *horugh, near the A)ghan border, in a region that was particularl$ acti+e during Tajikistan,s ci+il war in the '11/s. Though the protest reportedl$ was peace)ul and the regional leader listened to the protesters, concerns, demonstrations like this are not common in Tajikistan (2ideo 3ink 0 http:44www.strat)or.com4anal$sis4./'//1./5dispatch5tajikistan5and5central5asias5)ergana5+alle $ '6'678#. The countr$ is )ar )rom the brink o) a return to ci+il war, but small protests like this 00 combined with other simmering discontent in Tajikistan,s immediate neighborhood 00 could lead to heightened tensions in the region.
<link url="http://web.stratfor.com/images/maps/Tajikistan_v3_ !!.jpg""<me#ia ni#="$%&&&%" align="left""'click here to enlarge image(</me#ia"</link"

The incident that led to the protest was a -uarrel between two local groups. *horugh is a town o) about 9/,/// people in a +alle$ o) the Pamir mountains in the lightl$ populated :orno ;adakhshon Autonomous egion in eastern Tajikistan. ;ecause o) the town,s mountainous geograph$, it is separated into +arious neighborhoods that )unction as close0knit social groups. Three $oung men, reported to be street thugs and pett$ criminals, damaged a car belonging to a man )rom another group. The man, *a$on ahimkhudo$e+, con)ronted the men and demanded compensation, and the ensuing brawl led to the death o) one o) the men. ahimkhudo$e+ reported the incident to local authorities but was prosecuted and con+icted o) murder at his trial, despite his claim o) sel)0de)ense and his status as de)endant. This led to allegations o) corruption and briber$ against both the judge and the prosecutor, which then sparked protests b$ ahimkhudo$e+,s supporters outside the town,s court building. Also, the court buildings and o))ices belonging to the judge and prosecutor were +andali%ed. Though the incident was locali%ed and the protests reportedl$ were addressed through dialog rather than a securit$ crackdown, it re)lects a wider underl$ing issue in :orno ;adakhshon and Tajikistan in general: the percei+ed corruption b$ the go+ernment and local o))icials, particularl$ in law en)orcement and courts. The perception that these o))icials take bribes and use clan

lo$alties rather than legal imperati+es to make their decisions has led to polari%ation and a loss o) )aith b$ man$ Tajik citi%ens. The sense o) mistrust and resentment o) the go+ernment applies to local o))icials and goes all the wa$ to the top o) the Tajik go+ernment, President <momali akhmon. While such sentiments are common in Tajikistan, protests are rare, as akhmon has used the countr$,s securit$ apparatus to clamp down on social dissent (3=N*#. This makes the *horugh protest notable. The location o) the protest is also notable, as :orno ;adakhshon pla$ed an important part in the countr$,s ci+il war in '11.0'116. !ollowing the breakup o) the So+iet >nion, Tajikistan descended into chaos as man$ competing clans and )actions o) the geographicall$ di+ided countr$ +ied to )ill the resulting power +acuum. ?uring the ci+il war, groups )rom :orno ;adakhshon (and the :arm region, which includes the troublesome asht 2alle$ (3=N*## rose up against groups dominated b$ )actions )rom the 3eninabad and *ul$ab regions in the countr$,s west. <+entuall$ akhmon, leader o) the *ul$ab clan, emerged +ictorious, but his power was based on a shak$ agreement between opposition groups ranging )rom liberal democrats to =slamists that became components o) the >nited Tajik "pposition (>T"#. Tajikistan has seen an increase in securit$ incidents since a high0pro)ile jailbreak in ?ushanbe in August ./'/ (3=N*# led to the escape o) what the Tajik go+ernment re)ers to as =slamist militants, but are more likel$ irreconcilable members o) the >T". @an$ o) these escapees )led to the asht 2alle$ (3=N*#, an opposition stronghold. The +alle$ has been subject to intense securit$ sweeps )rom Tajik special )orces )or the past $ear. Se+eral attacks since this jailbreak, including a suicide bombing in ?ushanbe (3=N*# and ambushes against securit$ )orces in asht (3=N*#, ha+e led to rising concerns that a new ci+il war could be coming. Aowe+er, the akhmon go+ernment has so )ar had three distinct ad+antages that mitigate the chances )or ci+il war. The )irst is ussia, which has maintained militar$ bases in Tajikistan since the So+iet era. @oscow has increased its militar$ presence in Tajikistan (3=N*# and gi+en akhmon,s regime political backing. ussia has assisted Tajikistan in its securit$ sweeps in the asht 2alle$ in terms o) intelligence sharing and )inancial and logistical supportB the sweeps ha+e led to the deaths o) man$ o) the prison escapees and e+en reportedl$ eliminated @ullah Abdullah (3=N*#, one o) Tajikistan,s most wanted men. Second, the appetite )or ci+il war is not as large as it was in the '11/s. Tajiks ha+e )resh memories o) the destruction and displacement the last ci+il war caused, and man$ would pre)er to a+oid repeating such a scenario. !inall$, there is an economic )actor. :i+en Tajikistan,s poor economic situation and prospects )or )inding work 00 it is the poorest countr$ in the )ormer So+iet >nion 00 man$ Tajik males lea+e the countr$ in order to search )or work in ussia or elsewhere in Central Asia. This has le)t the countr$ without the demographic that would be most in+ol+ed in a ci+il war (some statistics indicate that 6/ percent o) working0age Tajik men are abroad#. This does not mean that akhmon has nothing to worr$ about. Though the securit$ sweeps ha+e limited attacks )rom opposition or militant elements in the countr$, the Tajik go+ernment is clearl$ concerned about the potential )or a renewed uprising in Tajikistan, as shown b$ the crackdowns on religious elements across the countr$ (3=N*#. This also comes as securit$ tensions are ripe in neighboring >%bekistan (3=N*# and especiall$ *$rg$%stan (3=N*#, which

saw a locali%ed con)lict turn into mass ethnic riots in "sh and &alal0Abad near the Tajik border (Tajik militants also allegedl$ hide in *$rg$%stan and consolidate to launch attacks in Tajikistan#. !inall$, Tajikistan shares a long and porous border with A)ghanistan, which likel$ will become more resti+e as the >nited States slowl$ begins its withdrawal )rom A)ghanistan (3=N* to toda$,s diar$D#. Tajikistan is there)ore +ulnerable to man$ )actors that could raise tensions to a critical le+el. A small protest in a remote region o) eastern Tajikistan, though not a serious threat to the akhmon regime o) the stabilit$ o) the entire countr$, ser+es as a reminder o) the man$ )actors that are.