.

7- c I

THE F U T U R E O F G E N E R A L A V I A T I O N S A F E T Y

by

H. S. HUBBELL, J R .
Federal A v i a t i o n A g e n c y
W a s h i n g t o n , D. C.

AIAA Paper
No. 66-812

CAS1IA~IAAICGASG
Aviation Salety Meetins
-
TORONTO, CANADA / OCTOBER 31 NOVEMBER 1 , 1966
First publication rights resHWdd bY American InStitYte Of ABronaYtiCI and Astronautics, 1290 A Y ~ I I Yof
~ the AmBricas. Now YOrk, N.Y. 10019. A b % t l c t Smay be publlshsd without pwmission if credit is @kento author and 10 AIAA. Prim-AiAA Member 7% Nonmember $1.M.I
Printed I" U S A
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CASI/AIAA/CGASC AVIATION SAFETY MEETlNG

OCTOBER 13 -
NOVEMBER 1, 1966 DESIGN. P E R F O W N C E , AND WINTENANCE WERE THE BASIS OF W O R A C C I D E " CAUSES.
TORONTO, CANADA

H. S. W B E L L , J R .
IN THE VERY FARtY DAYS THEE? W S A CALCULATED R I S K ASPECT ASSOCIATED WW

THE FUTURE OF GENERAL AVIATION SAFETY

FLYING A S WELL A S GLORY FOR PUOTS. AND THEN, FOLLOWDX WORLD WAR I1 THE

IN TBE NEARFUTURE UE WILL SEE THE BE&"ING OF AN ERA m CRANGE

MOR GMERAL AVIATION INDUSTRY BEGAN T O PROGRESS T" AN ERA OP GROWLNG PAINS.

T O AIXCRAPT, A I R " TRAINING, AND T O THE ENVIR0"T I N WRICH TlEY OPERATE. THE GRUT VOLUNE (K NILITARY P I L O T S TRAINED DURING THE WAR UERE NDW TRYING

AND AS WE STAND BACK AND SURVEY THE FUTURE TUTAL PICTURE OF C I V I L AVIATION. T O EARN A L I V I N G I N C I V I L AVIATION. A BOOM IN GENERAL AVIATION DEVELOPED

ONE ARE4 I N PARTICULAR STANDS OUT A S OFPERING THE GRFATEST CHALLENGE T O FROM 1946 THRU 1953, POLLOWED BY A C I V I L AVIATION RECESSICU CAUSED IN PART

OUR AERONAUTICAL 'INGENUITY -- THE TIULINING AND EDUCATIONAL NEEDS OF OUR BY THE CUTBACK IN GOVERNEIENT FRULNCIAL A I D FOR F L I G A T TRAINING FOR VETERANS

AIRMEN. AND BY A NILD, GENERAL RECESSION IN THE UNlTD STATES. DURING THESE YEARS,

W E SAW MOW W O R T DIRECTED T O GENERAL AVIATION SAFETY, AND TO D E V E L O m N T

DURING THE IAST QURPlTER OP A CENTURY, WE HAVE SEEN VAST IMPROVEMENTS IN

OP REGULATIONS TO MORE OR L E S S ENFORCE SAFETY IMPROVEWENT.

AIRCRAFT AND THE AIRWAYS SYSTEN. MOST OF OUR ATTENTION AND ENERGIES RAVE

BEEN DWUPED TO ACRIEVING THE VERY RELIABLE AIRCRAFT AND AIRSPACE SYSTEM I N THE YEARS THAT POLLOWD WE WITNESSED SIGNS 09 A SOBERING hCtTURITY I N

WE WLVE TODAY, AND FURTHER R E F I N E N E M S AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED IN GENERAL AVIATION, A TREND TOWARD CONSOLIDATING AND S T A B I L I Z I N G OUR GAINS.

THESE AREAS. BOTH INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT WERE BECOMING AWE? THAT GENERAL AVIATION WAS

NO LONGER PREDOMINANTLY A SPORT FLYING A C T N I T Y BUT BLOSSOMING I"0 A TRANS-

I N THE EARLY DAYS OF C I V I L AVIATION, MAJOR EFFORTS WERE DEVOTED T O

PORTATION INDUSTRY. IN EFFECT, IN T E W OP THE " A N ELEMeNT.

DEVELOPING SAFETY RFGUVLTIONS A N D ORGANIZATIONS TO ENFORCE THE RULES.

SAFETY W S , FOR THE MOST PART, THOUGHT OF AS DEVELOPING A SKILLFUL PILOT

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TO FLY A P ~ N T I A L L YUWLIABLE AIRPLNE. THE SAD FACT WAS TAATAIRCRAFT
WE HAD SEEN GENERAL AVIATION GROW FROM THE LONE EAGLES, BARNSTORHERS, ONE OF OUR BIG PROELEEE TODAY I S TO ORGANIZE GREATER EFFORT T O A S S I S T THE

AND WING WALKERS TO THE MATURE BUSINESSMEN DEALING WITH MANUFACTURING, PRIVATE P I L O I hR0 F L I E S ON EUSLh'ESS OR FOR PLEASURE STAY ABREAST OF THE

SALES, TRAINING, AND MANAGEMENT OF FIXED-BASE OPERATIONS. RAPID CHANGES I N TECHNOLKY, REGULATIONS, AND THE AIRSPACE ENVIRONMENT.

THE CONTRAST I N THE HUWLN ELEMENT BETWEEN THE PAST AND THE PRESENT 7s I N T H I S REGARD, I T I S HEARTENMG TO NOTE THE INCREASING ALARENESS ON THE PART

STRIKING -- IN ITS EMERGING PERIOD THE VERY mnw OF AVIATION ATTRACTED OF W N Y GENERAL AVIATION ORGANIZATIONS AhD INSURANCE COEPAKIES TO GEXERAL

THE STRONG, SELF-RELIAWI INDIVIDUALIST, 4MO I N MANY GASES VAS RELUCTANT AVIATION SAFETY R E S P O N S I B I L I T I E S . JUDGING FRO>! PRESZhT I h D I C A T I O N S , Oh3

TO TAKE ADVICE OR BE REGULATED. HE LIAS TOO OFTEN CONCERKED kTTH HIS OhW CAN F I h ! A W L E J U S T I F I C A T I O N I N THE BELIEF THAT THE FUTURE OF GEhTPAL AVIATION

PERSONAL SUCCESS OR RECOGNITION, NOT WITH THE SAFETY OF THE PUBLIC AT LARGE. SAFETY I S INUEE3 SRIGHT -- CERTAINLY BRIGHT FROM THE TECHNOLOGICAL S I D E .

BUT A S GENERAL AVIATION ASSUMED PROPORTIONATELY GREATER RESPONSIBILITY AND

TODAY BOTH GOVER?.?'EhT AhT IhTLSTRY ARE ENCOURAGING BUILT-IN DEVICES TO

L T E L D D GREATER IMPACT ON THE NATION'S ECONOMY AND PROSPERITY, INCREASED

PREVENT COELVCN ACLIDEhTS. STABILITY AUGEiEhTATION S Y S T M S , AUTOMATIC

ATTENTION WAS GIVEN TO SAFETY, TO SAFETY EFFORTS AND ATTITUDES. NANVFACTURERS

I A N D I K G GEAR SYSTEMS, STALL T'ARNING DEVICES, STICK PUSHERS AND ANGLE OF

HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AWARE THAT THEY W S T NOT OVERSELL THE SIMPLICITY
ATTACK I?XIIGATORS ARE BUT A FEW OF THE MANY SAFETY DEVICES APPEARING I N

OF FLYING, AhD THAT EDUCATION AND TRAINING HAVE A DIRECT RELATION TO SALES
MODEW AIRCRIIFT.

AND SAFETY.

PILOTS, XECHANICS, %h%TACTURERS. Ah4 Tt!E GOVEKN?!EhT AGENCIES THAT

FIXED-BASE OPERATORS HAYE RECOGNIZED THAT GOOD "AVAGEEENT I S A KEY TO

RXCIATE AVIATION r m RFCOGKIZIX THAT W E ~ C H A N I C A LAND AVIONIC DEVELOPMEXTS

SAFETY AND PROFITS. THE CORPORATE FLELTS HAVE ESTABLISHED TtIEIR O W

ARE R'? iAB1.E AND WILL PREVENT ACCIDEhTTS.

AVIATION ORGANIZATIONS AND RELES ANII ARE E.WEPURY I N THEIR OUTSTANDING

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SAFETY RECORDS.
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FOR EXAMPLE, AT THE P R E S C ~TIME nix FAA IS ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOFWENT CONSDERABLE A T T E W I O N I S ALSO BEING GIVEN TO CFASHWORTHINESS FACTORS

OF LOW-COST STICK PUSHERS (SO-CALLED "STALL BARRIERS") I N A N EFFORT TO W I T H REGARD TO BOTH THE CREW AND PASSENGERS. FLIGHT SVPIGEONS AND AERO-

PREVENT THE NEARLY 200 F A T A L I T I E S A YEAR CAUSED BY P I L O T S W O DO NOT MEDICAL RESEARCHERS ARE M K I N G REALISTIC SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS. AIRCRAFT

RECOGNIZE THE SYMPTOMS OF A STALL. I N THF NEAR FUTURE, l>E h?LL SEE MANUFACTURERS NOW OFFER SHOULDER HARNESSES I N THE AIRCFAFT. STATISTICS

LOW-COST AUTOEIATIC LANDING GEAR SYSTENS AVAILABLE FOR ALL AIRCRAFT. TL(Is IHDKATE TdAT A B W T ONE HUNDRED LIVES A YEAR WOULD BE S
A W I N LIGHT

SHOULD REDUCE THE WMBER GF WEELS-UP LANDINGS, WXICH HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AIRCFAFT IF EFFECTIVE SHOULDER HARNESSES WERE WORN.

AT THE KATE OF ABOUT 700 A YEAR. AT LEAST ONE COMMERCIAL SYSTEM I S PRESENTLY
BUT A S kT LOOK AT THESE NEW DEVELOPMENTS AS WELL A S OUR PROGRESS I N SAFETY

AVAILABLE. THE FAA I S EVALUATING ANGLE OF AlTACK INDICATORS AND VISUAL

OVER THE YEARS, THERE IS ONE CIARING vom -- WE HAVE NEGLECTED THE AIRMAN!

GLmE SLOPE INTICATORS A S DEVICES TO REDUCE THE NEARLY 2:OOO IAhqING

AT T H I S TIME THE FEDERAL AVIATION AGENCY IS SERICWSLY CONCERNED WITH

ACCIDENTS WHICH OCCUR EACH YEAR.

AIRMAN TRAINING AND CERTIFICATION STANDARDS AND W O D S . THE TRAINING,

h'E ARE SEEING IXCREASED O P E M T I O W L RESEARCH I N R W A N FACTORS A S RELATED

EYAMINING, AUD C E I I T I F I C A T m G W PILOTS AND MECHANICS HAVE R E W I N E D VIRTUALLY

TO THE P I L O T - A I R C M F T E N V I R O W T . SUCH DEVICES A S DME. TRANSPONDERS,

UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 25 YEARS. TO CATCH UP AND STAY EVEN WITH THE VAST

COUPLERS, AND S I K P L I F S E D AIRSPACE PROCEDURES, ARE FASING HUMAN TENSIONS

TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN AVIATION, NEW CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES FOR P n m
AND MAKING THE PILOT'S FLIGHT SIMPLER, SAFER AND MORE RELAXING. THE
TRAINING AND CERTIFICATION NUST BE DEYELOPED.

FAA AT T H I S TIK? I S INVOLVED I N TESTS FOR LOWER LANDING MINIMUMS, USE

WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY EXPERIENCED A 12-PERCEWI AVERAGE ANNUAL INCFSASE I N

OF TRAFFIC L I G H T S ON RUhT<AYS AND TAXIb'AYS FOR TKAFFIC FLOW, LOW-COST

THE "TIER m P n m CERTIFICATES SINCE THE WR. IN THE PAST YEAR, HOWEVER,
APPROACH LIGHTS AND I S ' S , -- ALL AIMED AT IMPROVED SAFE= AT LEAST FROM

THE hWfBER OF NEW STUDEW PUG7 CERTIFICATES,ISSLIED INCREASED TO APPROXINATELY

THE TECHNOIOGICAL STANDPOIXT .
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110,000 FROM THE 70,000 ISSUED THE YEAR REFORE (MOPIE "HAN A 50-PERCENT THE AGENCY OR INSTRUCTOR Irno TRAINS A PILOT IS UNDOUBTEDLY IN A BETTER

INCFZASE). THIS APETARS TO CONFIRM INDUSTRY FORECASTS OF 300,000 NEW POSTTION T O DETERMINE THE OPEPATIOWL TRAINING HE NEEDS, AND THE COMPETENCY

STUDENT Pnms ANNUGLY BY 1970. HE HAS ACHIEVED, THAN I S SDHEONE ELSE WHO HERFLY EVALUATES THE P I L O T ' S

C W L I A N C E WITH M I N m AERONAUTICAL EXPERIENCE AND FLIGHT MANEUVER PEFSORMANCE

M E FAA, AND ITS PREDECESSOR AGENCY THE C I V I L AERONAUTICS ADMINISTRATION,
STANDARDS. WE SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE POSSIBLE AND PREPERABLE T O DEVELOP
HAS AT TIIGS TAKEN A -~PATEWLISTICC" APPROACH TO P n m QUALIPICATION BY
P n m TRAINING AGENCIES AND INSTRUCTORS w m WITFSTIONED QUALIFICATIONS
SPECIFYING ME HUIRS OF TRAINING REQUIRED, THE SOLO EXPERIENCE, AND EVEN

AND SENSE OF R E S P O N S D I L I T Y . WE MIGHT WELL ASSIGN FULL R E S P O N S I B I L I T Y TO

THE FLIGHT MANEUVERS TO BE PRACTICED. IT HAS PROVIDED WRITTEN EXAMINATIONS

THEM FOR THE TRAINING AND QUALIFICATION OF ALL PRIVATE pnms.

AND F L I G E I TESTS OF ALL P I L O T CERTIFICATE APPLICANTS BY I T S OWN INSPECTORS

OR QUAL'EIED EXAMINEUS PERSONALLY DESIGNATED TO R E P R E S f i m THE ADMINISTRATOR. WE BELIEVE THAT SUCH A PROCEDURE WOULD BE IN KEEPING WITH THE MATUPING

GENERAL AVIATION INDUSTRY, AND, WITH PROPER SUI(VE1LIANCE OP P E R P O W N C E

WE FORESEE TSAT SUCH REGIMENTATION OF TRAINING AND ILVDIVIDUAL TESTING (R

STANDARDS, WOULD RESULT IN MORE COUPETENT AND SAFER pnms.

ALL Pnm APPLIU\WS WILL NOT BE FEWIRLE OR POSSIBLE UITHIN A VERY PEW

YFARS. IT IS NOTI ~ L I S T I CTO TRY TO EVALUATE P n m PERFORMANCEON THE L E T ' S L a l K AT THE FUTURE. WRY WILL W
E SEE IMPROVDENT I N GENERAL AVIATION

BASIS (R A FEW PRACTICED MANEUVERS, AND IT w n L SOON BE I~PPACIICABLE FOR THE SAFETY I N THE FUTURE?

FAA TO PROVIDE EXAMINATIONS AND FLIGHT TESTS FOR ALL Pnm APPLICANTS.
FIRST AND PARAMOUNT TO T H I S WHOLE MATTER I S HARMONY OF PURPOSE BY THE ENTIRE

S P E C I F I E D FLIGHT H O R S AND S P E C I F I E D FLIGHT MANEUVERS ARE NO LONGER A AVIATION COMMLINITY. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE ALL SEGNEATS OF GENERA1,AVIATION

RELTARLE INDEX op A prim's CAPABILITIES IN THE CCMPLEX ENVIRONMENT (R PULLING TOGETHER FOR A CM.NON PURPOSE.

MODERN FLIGHT OPERATIONS. OTEPATIONAL TRAINING AND QUALIFICATION I S NECESSARY

a
IF TNL. P n m IS TO PEFSORM EFFICIENTLY AND SAFELY.

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T H I S TREND WILL CONTINUE BECAUSE THE SAFETY PROBLEM ITSELF WILL BECOhT FOR CENTURIES MAN HAS BEEN TRYING TO UNDERSTAND HIMSELF. HOPBULLY, I N

THE CONnON BOND WHICH WILL LEAD TO MAJOR CHANGES I N THE YEARS AHEAD. hT THE YEARS AHEAD, WE CAN EDUCATE M N CONCERNING H I S PHYSIOLOGICAL AND

ARE GOING TO S E E A TREND TOWLRDS INCRXASED RESFARGl ON THE H W N BEING. PSYCHOLOGICAL CHAPACTERISTICS WHICH AFFECT SAFETY. T H I S WILL BE A LONG,

IT IS GENERALLYRECSNIZED THAT INEPT OR INCOFSECT ACTIONS my PILOTS CAUSE GRADUAL PROCESS, BUT WE NUST EXPAND OUR EFFORTS TO EDUCATE ALL A I W N

85 PERCENT OF THE ACCIDENTS. THERE I S S T I L L NUCH TO BE LFARNED ABOUT CONCERNING H W i N FACTORS.

PHYSIOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND REACTIONS THAT CAUSE ACCIDENTS.

RECOGNIZING IIIAT HAN IS A DEFICULT ANIMAL TO CHANGE, THERE w m BE

WE ARE GOING TO SEE TRUE CAUSE ANALYSIS OP ACCIDENTS. BY T H I S I %AN CONTINUING AND INCREASING EPFORTS T O IMPROVE ?HE VEHICLE AND THE E N V I R O m m

DETEBMINING WHAT WERE THE W N EMOTION AND BElIAVIOR FACTORS THAT CON-
I N WHICH I a N OPERATES IT. WE WILL SEE I N THE FUTURE VASTLY SIMT'LIFIEU

AIRCRAFT ATTITUDE AND NAVIGATIONAL COCKPIT D I S P I A Y S , WIDESPRWLD RECOGNITION

TRIBUTED T O THE ACCIDENT.

AND USE OF AUTOMATIC SAFETY DEVICES, AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-COST GROUND

WE ARE GOING TO SEE A TOTAL SYSTEE! COE!CEFT EVOLVE. SPECIFICALLY, A

TRAINERS AND SIMJIATORS. THE NATIONAL AIRSPACE SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER

P I L O T TRAINING TO UNDERSTAND HIMSZLF A h 9 H I S BEHAVIOR TO PILOT AN AIRCRAFT
SDlPLIpIED. IMPROVED WWlTHER SERVICE WILL BE PROVIDED FOR PILOTS. THE
VHICH HAS BE2N DELETHALIZED AND I S SIMPLE TO FLY I N A SIHPLE AIRSPACE
HANY F I N E REFRESHER C L I N I C S NOW BEING OFFERED WILL BE VASTLY EXPANDED.
SYSTEX, FREE OF TENSION, APPREHENSION, AND UNEXPECTED Dmws ON THE
AIRCRAFT MNVFACTURERS WILL FURTHER REFINE THE INTERIOR I
X THE A I R W T
HWAN BEING.
TO REDUCE THE P O S S I B I L I T Y OF HUM4N ERROR.

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AIRPI'RT MANAGERS A N D OPERATORS KILL BE DEVOTING MORE EFFORT TO SAFETY

A S GEKERAL AVIATION COhTIhTES TO EXPAND RAPIDLY AND GOW.RPiEIF.NT DELEGATES

C K 4 T E R RESPONSIBILITY TO INOUSTRY.

ACCOMPANYING THESE OPTIMISTIC T R E W S WILL BE THE KEAW DEMANDS ON MANUFACTURERS,

SCHCQLS, AIRPORTS, AND F A C I L I T I E S A S GXNERAL AVIATION CONTINUES TO GROW, AS

GREATER NlTMBERS OF A I W E N TRANSITICN T O TUR3INE POLTR, AND A R E EXF'OSED T O

A NEW OPERATIONAL ENVIROhWhT. KEW PRODUCTS, NEW DE?&hQS ON A I m N , AND

ENVIRONMEhT CHANGES HISTORICALLY HAVE HAD AN EFFECT ON SAFE=. MORE INDIRECTLY,

LT CAN EXPECT INCREASING PROBLEMS CONCERNING NOISE, HOUSING NEAR AIRPORTS,

AhV CROWED AIRPORT COklITIONS.

ONE OF THE MOST SERIOUS PRORLEE!S FACING GENEPAL AVIATION TODAY I S LACK OF

ADEQUATE AIRPORTS A h 9 AIRPORT F A C I L I T I E S ,

I N THE FINAL ANALYSIS, kE ARE CONFIDENT THAT ??IE AVIATION C O ~ ~ ? : I ANN D

GOVERNFENT HAVE 'THE MANAGERIAL AND TECHNICAL KNOWHOW TO SOLVE TIiE PROBLEMS

AHFAD. hT A R E ALSO CONFIDENT THAT THE F L E X I S I L I T Y AND R E C E P T I V E X S S TO

hTb! IDEAS MANIFESTED BY OUR GEmRAL AVIATION LEADERSHIP K I L L BE TXE KEY

T O OUR FUTURE SUCCESS I N AVIATION SAFETi.

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