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A Study of The Factors Affecting The Time To Cycle in A Cycling Experiment
A Study of The Factors Affecting The Time To Cycle in A Cycling Experiment
SUBMITTED TO
Dr. Douglas C. Montgomery
PROJECT PARTICIPANTS
Prabhuvel Kandaswamy 993-37-4301
Venkatesh Selvaraj 993-39-9966
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE NUMBER
TITLE
PAGE
NUMBER
1.0
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
EXPERIMENTAL SETUP
6.1
EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE
7.0
8.0
CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
19
LOW LEVEL
40 psi
Low
36 inches
Against Wind
HIGH LEVEL
60 psi
High
42 inches
Towards Wind
We felt that the time of the day (day/night) during which the experiment was conducted
would cause some variation in the performance of the bike. We considered this as a
nuisance factor and hence blocked its effect. The experiment was conducted in a traffic
free zone.
The runs were made as per the run order generated by the Design Expert with the
appropriate factor combinations.
H a l f N o r m a l % p r o b a b i l i ty
H a lf N o rm a l p lo t
99
97
95
90
85
80
C
AB
D
BD
70
60
40
20
0
0 .0 0
4 .8 4
9 .6 9
1 4 .5 3
1 9 .3 8
| E ffe c t|
N o r m a l % p r o b a b i l i ty
N o rm a l p lo t o f re s i d u a ls
99
95
90
80
70
50
30
20
10
5
1
-2 . 5 8
-1 . 1 6
0 .2 6
1 .6 8
3 .1 1
R e s id u a l
DESIGN-EXPERT Pl ot
R e s i d ua ls vs . R u n
3 .1 1
R e s id u a ls
1 .6 8
0 .2 6
-1 . 1 6
-2 . 5 8
1
10
13
16
R e s i d u a ls vs . P re d i c te d
3 .1 1
R e s id u a ls
1 .6 8
0 .2 6
-1 . 1 6
-2 . 5 8
1 0 8 .5 6
1 1 9 .9 1
1 3 1 .2 5
1 4 2 .6 0
1 5 3 .9 4
P r e d i c te d
R e s i d u a ls vs . T i re P re s s u re
3 .1 1
R e s id u a ls
1 .6 8
0 .2 6
-1 . 1 6
-2 . 5 8
40
43
47
50
53
57
60
T ire P re s s u re
10
The plot below shows that there is more variability in the high level of the gear
than at the low level. We feel that this variability can be attributed to the more pressure
that is required to pedal at high gear (This is just our inference and we are not sure of its
validity).
R e s i d u a ls vs . G e a r
3 .1 1
R e s id u a ls
1 .6 8
0 .2 6
-1 . 1 6
-2 . 5 8
1
Gear
11
It seems from the plot below that though the scatter is similar at both high and low
levels the means are quite different.
R e s i d u a ls vs . S e a t H e i g h t
3 .1 1
R e s id u a ls
1 .6 8
0 .2 6
-1 . 1 6
-2 . 5 8
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
S e a t H e ig h t
12
The variability is high when we ride the bike against (low) the direction of wind.
This can be due to the varied effects of the wind.
R e s i d u a ls vs . D i re c ti o n o f C yc li n g
3 .1 1
R e s id u a ls
1 .6 8
0 .2 6
-1 . 1 6
-2 . 5 8
1
D i r e c ti o n o f C yc l i n g
13
Interaction Effects:
It is seen from the plot below that the time taken (response variable) is less when
the tire pressure and gear is high.
In te ra c ti o n G ra p h
B: Gear
1 5 3 .0 2
T im e
1 4 1 .3 5
1 2 9 .6 7
1 1 8 .0 0
1 0 6 .3 2
40
45
50
55
60
A: T ire P re s s u re
14
It is seen from the plot below that the time taken (response variable) is less while
cycling with the wind (high) with the gear in high level.
In te ra c ti o n G ra p h
D : D i r e c ti o n o f C yc l i n g
1 5 3 .0 2
T im e
1 4 1 .3 5
1 2 9 .6 7
1 1 8 .0 0
1 0 6 .3 2
Low
Hig h
B: Gear
7.5 Block:
The sum of squares for the block is 6.57 and has one degree of freedom since
there are two blocks.
7.6 R2:
The model R2 is 0.9850. It measures the proportion of the total variability
explained by the model. The high value for the R2 shows that the experimental error is
very less.
15
0.9850
0.9738
0.9401
28.478
The "Pred R-Squared" of 0.9401 is in reasonable agreement with the "Adj RSquared" of 0.9738.
"Adeq Precision" measures the signal to noise ratio. A ratio greater than 4 is
desirable. The ratio of 28.478 indicates an adequate signal. This model can be
used to navigate the design space.
The PRESS value is less compared to SST . Hence the small value of PRESS
indicates that the model is likely to be a good predictor.
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
Response:
Time
Sum of
Squares
6.5664063
2674.1984
644.01751
1502.1438
322.83106
74.952306
93.074256
37.179506
40.6274
2721.3922
DF
1
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
8
15
Mean
Square
6.56640625
445.6997396
644.0175063
1502.143806
322.8310563
74.95230625
93.07425625
37.17950625
5.078425
F
Value
Prob > F
87.76338
126.8144
295.7893
63.56913
14.75897
18.32739
7.32107
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
0.0049
0.0027
0.0268
significant
The Model F-value of 87.76 implies the model is significant. There is only a 0.01% chance that a
Model F-Value this large could occur due to noise.
Values of "Prob > F" less than 0.0500 indicate model terms are significant.
16
2.2535361
R-Squared
0.985035
Mean
C.V.
PRESS
134.54813
1.6748922
162.5096
Adj R-Squared
Pred R-Squared
Adeq Precision
0.973811
0.94014
28.47836
The "Pred R-Squared" of 0.9401 is in reasonable agreement with the "Adj R-Squared" of 0.9738.
"Adeq Precision" measures the signal to noise ratio. A ratio greater than 4 is desirable. Your
ratio of 28.478 indicates an adequate signal. This model can be used to navigate the design
space.
Coefficient
Factor
Estimate
Intercept
134.54813
Block 1
-0.640625
Block 2
0.640625
A-Tire Pressure
-6.344375
B-Gear
-9.689375
C-Seat Height
-4.491875
D-Direction of Cycling -2.164375
AB
-2.411875
BD
-1.524375
DF
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Standard
Error
0.563384028
95% CI
Low
133.249
95% CI
High
135.8473
VIF
0.563384028
0.563384028
0.563384028
0.563384028
0.563384028
0.563384028
-7.64354
-10.9885
-5.79104
-3.46354
-3.71104
-2.82354
-5.04521
-8.39021
-3.19271
-0.86521
-1.11271
-0.22521
1
1
1
1
1
1
=
*A
*B
*C
*D
*A*B
*B*D
17
-0.39325
-1.49729
* Tire Pressure
* Seat Height
Gear
High
Direction of Cycling
Against Wind
Time
=
+230.72313
-0.87563
* Tire Pressure
-1.49729
* Seat Height
Gear
Low
Direction of Cycling
Towards Wind
Time
=
+221.65438
-0.39325
* Tire Pressure
-1.49729
* Seat Height
Gear
High
Direction of Cycling
Towards Wind
Time
=
+223.34563
-0.87563
* Tire Pressure
-1.49729
* Seat Height
Leverage
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Student
Residual
-0.57892
-1.38454
-0.25416
1.949337
0.936623
1.026834
-1.62066
-0.07452
-0.1263
-0.48792
1.350024
-0.46753
-0.23141
0.845628
0.524791
-1.40729
Cook's
Distance
0.041893
0.239619
0.008075
0.474989
0.109658
0.131798
0.328316
0.000694
0.001994
0.029759
0.22782
0.027323
0.006694
0.089386
0.034426
0.247557
Outlier
t
-0.55324
-1.48523
-0.23871
2.516557
0.928518
1.030846
-1.84975
-0.06973
-0.11826
-0.46336
1.437098
-0.44343
-0.21719
0.828927
0.499572
-1.51758
Proceed to Diagnostic Plots (the next icon in progression). Be sure to look at the:
1) Normal probability plot of the studentized residuals to check for normality of residuals.
2) Studentized residuals versus predicted values to check for constant error.
3) Outlier t versus run order to look for outliers, i.e., influential values.
18
Run
Order
11
1
5
13
2
10
12
8
6
16
9
3
15
7
4
14
We found out that Gear, Tire Pressure and Seat Height were the most significant of
all the factors.
The time taken to cycle was found to me maximum in the 6 th run with Low Tire
Pressure, Low Gear, Low Seat Height and Cycling in the direction of wind.
The time taken to cycle was found to me minimum in the 14 th run with High Tire
Pressure, High Gear, High Seat Height and Cycling in the direction of wind.
Recommendations
The refined model now has large coefficients for B, F, AND H. If decided to include
to include only these factors in the model,a full factorial design can be done with only
these these three factors and they can be analyzed better. This gives much more
insight into the interaction effects.
There are many other factors which may influence the cycling time. So we feel that
this experiment needs to be done with some more factors into consideration.
19