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Section 2 !i"ure Theor#
Section 2 !i"ure Theor# [ go to Main Index ] [ Table of Figures and Diagrams ]
3. Reliability of Systems, Eui!ment and "om!onents
3.#. Introdu$tion
3.%. Definitions
3.%.#. Reliability
3.%.%. Maintainability
3.%.3. &'ailability
3.%.(. Re!airable ) *on Re!airable Systems
3.3. Reliability Fun$tion
(. Reliability +lo$, Diagrams -R+D.
(.#. Introdu$tion
(.%. System "onfigurations
/. T0e 1+at0 "ur'e1
2. Six 3atterns of Failure
4. T0e *ature of Failure
5. +ell "ur'e
3. $e"i!%i"it# o& S#'tem'( )*uipment !n+ ,omponent'
3.1. Intro+uction - go to Top o& .!ge / - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
& reliable !ie$e of me$0ani$al eui!ment is understood to be basi$ally sound, to be able to meet its design
s!e$ifi$ations, and to gi'e trouble6free !erforman$e in a gi'en en'ironment. 7o8e'er, it is ne$essary to 0a'e an
understanding of t0e te$0ni$al, engineering use of t0e term 9reliability9 as s!e$ified for me$0ani$al eui!ment. &ll !lant,
eui!ment and $om!onents 0a'e a finite life, and so e'entually all !ie$es of eui!ment 8ill fail. :it0out a te$0ni$al
definition of reliability it 8ould not be !ossible for engineers or managers to ma,e meaningful $om!arisons bet8een t0e
reliability of alternati'e !lant and eui!ment.
3.2. 1e&inition' - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
3.2.1. $e"i!%i"it#
Reliability is t0e !robability t0at a !lant or $om!onent 8ill not fail to !erform 8it0in s!e$ified limits in a gi'en time
80ile 8or,ing in a stated en'ironment. For t0e $ase of me$0ani$al systems t0e follo8ing definition $an be used to
define reliability
Me$0ani$al Reliability is t0e probability t0at a spare, item, or unit 8ill !erform its !res$ribed duty 8it0out failure for a
gi'en time 80en operated correctly in a specified environment.
T0e definition of reliability in$ludes a number of 'ariables t0at are external to t0e artefa$t being analysed. Identi$al
eui!ments may 0a'e 'ery different duty reuirements su$0 as freuent sto!6starts or $ontinuous running.
En'ironmental $onditions su$0 as fine dust $an also effe$t a ma$0ine. It is t0us ne$essary to understand $om!letely t0e
o!erating $onditions under 80i$0 an artefa$t is ex!e$ted to o!erate.
3.2.2. 2!int!in!%i"it#
#
;n$e a !ie$e of eui!ment 0as failed it must be !ossible to get it ba$, into an o!erating $ondition as soon as !ossible,
t0is is ,no8n as maintainability. To $al$ulate t0e maintainability or Mean Time To Re!air -MTTR. of an item, t0e time
reuired to !erform ea$0 anti$i!ated re!air tas, must be 8eig0ted -multi!lied. by t0e relati'e freuen$y 8it0 80i$0 t0at
tas, must be !erformed -e.g. no. of times !er year.. MTTR data su!!lied by manufa$turers 8ill be !urely re!air time
80i$0 8ill assume t0e fault is $orre$tly identified and t0e reuired s!ares and !ersonnel are a'ailable. T0e MTTR to t0e
user 8ill in$lude t0e logisti$ delay as s0o8n in Figure /.
igure 3 1i&&erence %etween 2TT$ !n+ tot!" +owntime [ Table of Figures ] [ Failure T0eory Index ]
3.2.3. 45!i"!%i"it#
T0e !robability t0at an item, under t0e $ombined influen$e of its reliability, maintainability and maintenan$e su!!ort,
8ill be able to fulfil its reuired fun$tion o'er a stated !eriod of time, or at a gi'en !oint in time. T0e o!erating $ontext
of a !ie$e of eui!ment 8ill determine its !erforman$e reuirements. &n airliner 8ill be ex!e$ted to rea$0 its destination
on$e it 0as ta,en off. To guarantee t0is it 8ill s!end a relati'ely large amount of its time being ser'i$ed. In t0is $ase t0e
reliability must be #<<= but it9s a'ailability may be relati'ely lo8. In !ro$ess industries 80i$0 run $ontinuously t0e
a'ailability is of !rime im!ortan$e. T0e definition of a'ailability is>
T0e a'ailability of a system is t0e !robability t0at t0e system is fun$tioning at time t. T0e &'ailability for a single
ma$0ine is>
& ? MT+F@-MT+FAMTTR.
T0e im!li$ation of t0is formula is t0at 0ig0 a'ailability $an be obtained eit0er by in$reasing t0e MT+F, and 0en$e t0e
reliability, or im!ro'ing t0e maintainability by de$reasing t0e Mean Time To Re!air -MTTR.. T0e MTTR 8ould
in$lude t0e re!air time and t0e logisti$ delay -obtaining labour and s!ares..
3.2.4. $ep!ir!%"e 6 7on $ep!ir!%"e S#'tem'
In reliability engineering re!airable and non re!airable systems are treated differently. & non re!airable item is re!la$ed
8it0 a ne8 item 80i$0 8ill be as good as t0e item re!la$ed. ;'er time as items are re!la$ed 8it0 identi$al ne8 items t0e
failure rate 8ill remain $onstant. In a re!airable system t0e re!aired item follo8ing a brea,do8n 8ill not be as good as
80en it 8as first installed -as good as ne8 -agan.. Beneral 8ear and errors in t0e re!air $arried out 8ill result in t0e
failure rate in$reasing o'er time.
%
3.3. $e"i!%i"it# unction - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
Some bat$0es of $om!onents $an dis!lay a $onstant failure rate &lternati'ely some items $an $ontain many s!ares of
'arying failure rates. :it0 t0e mixing of failure rates of ne8 and old s!ares 8it0in t0e unit t0e failure rate of t0e unit $an
be $onstant -,no8n as a 9!seudo6$onstant9 failure rate. In t0ese situations>
R(t) ? e6t
R(t) ? Reliability at time t
? #@MT+F
and so
R(t) ? e 6t@MT+F
:0ere> t ? time sin$e t0e last failure
MT+F ? Mean time bet8een failures
)0!mp"e
& motor is reuired to run for t8o years 8it0out a failure
Manufa$tures MT+F % years
? e6%@% ? <.32
MT+F % years R(t) ? <.32 &!!rox. t8o in t0ree $0an$e t0at it 8ill fail in
t0e first t8o years. T0e manufa$turers guarantee of a MT+F of % years is not
adeuate to gi'e a 0ig0 !robability of sur'i'al for t8o years.
Manufa$tures MT+F #< years
? e6%@#< ? <.5%
MT+F #< years R-t. ? <.5% 5%= $0an$e t0at it 8ill run for t8o years 8it0out failing
4. $e"i!%i"it# 8"ock 1i!gr!m' 9$81':
4.1. Intro+uction - go to Top o& .!ge / - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
C! to no8 t0e reliability of indi'idual s!ares 0as been dis$ussed. & number of s!ares 8ill ma,e u! an item 80i$0 in turn
ma,e u! a unit, !lant area, and t0en an entire !lant. In industry it is ne$essary to estimate t0e reliabilities of eui!ments
t0at intera$t 8it0 ea$0 ot0er. +efore any form of reliability analysis is attem!ted, it is ne$essary to re!resent t0e system
under $onsideration, as a blo$, diagram. & blo$, diagram 8it0 an indi'idual blo$, for ea$0 unit $an re!resent t0e entire
!lant. If ne$essary lo8er le'el blo$, diagrams $an re!resent items 8it0in units. T8o basi$ ty!es of diagrams $an be used
to re!resent a system.
3
& fun$tional blo$, diagram -system layout. $an re!resent t0e a$tual !lant layout s0o8ing 0o8 !lant units are
inter$onne$ted. T0is 0el!s to des$ribe 0o8 t0e system is ex!e$ted to o!erate.
For reliability assessment a Reliability +lo$, Diagram -R+D. is more useful.
4.2. S#'tem ,on&igur!tion'
It is ne$essary to 0a'e an understanding of t0e basi$ ty!es of unit layout t0at exist in industry
Serie' S#'tem': In a series system, failure of any unit $onstitutes system failure. T0e reliability of t0e system is t0e
!rodu$t of t0e reliabilities of t0e units ma,ing u! t0e system.
igure ; Serie' $e"i!%i"it# 1i!gr!m [ Table of Figures ] [ Failure T0eory Index ]
4 8 ,
3la$ing units in series in$reases t0e failure rate and redu$es t0e o'erall a'ailability of t0e system -Figure 2.
system ? & A + A "
&'system ? &'& x &'+ x &'"
u"" 4cti5e $e+un+!nc#: In an a$ti'e redundan$y system -Figure 4Figure 4., a number of units sustain t0e fun$tion
until one failsD t0e remaining unit $an $ontinue to !ro'ide t0e fun$tion.
Note: If bot0 of t0e !um!s in Figure 4 must be o!erational to sustain t0e fun$tion, in reliability terms t0ey 8ould be in
series des!ite being in !arallel on t0e system diagram.
igure 7 4cti5e $e+un+!nc# [ Table of Figures ] [ Failure T0eory Index ]
(
T0e System Reliability Rs for one out of t8o units in !arallel is>
Rs ? #6E-#6R&.-#6R+.F
2-out-o&-7 In t0ese $ases indi'idual units s0are !ro'ision of t0e fun$tion, 80i$0 $an be sustained at a satisfa$tory le'el
s0ould one or more of t0e units fail. In a$ti'e and standby redundan$y systems t0is $an be ,no8n as m6out6of6n models.
In Figure 5, at least m units out of a total of n must be in o!eration for t0e system to o!erate.
igure < 2-out-o&-7 S#'tem [ Table of Figures ] [ Failure T0eory Index ]
Exam!le>
T0ree units are in a$ti'e !arallel, of 80i$0 at least % must be in o!eration for satisfa$tory system o!eration.
System Reliability Rs ? R#R%R3 A R#F%F3 A R%F#F3 A R3F#F%
If R# ? R% ? R3
T0en RS ? R3 A 3RF%
/
3. The =8!th ,ur5e= - go to Top o& .!ge / - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
Many differing bat$0es of me$0ani$al and ele$tri$al industrial $om!onents 0a'e been tested to determine if it is !ossible
to !redi$t 80en t0ey 8ill fail. T0ese tests 0a'e re'ealed t0at during t0eir normal 8or,ing life, t0ey do not rea$0 a !oint
of 8ear6out at some li,ely time t0at $ould be $alled 1old age1. ;n t0e $ontrary a gi'en item is as li,ely to fail in a gi'en
8ee, s0ortly after installation as in a gi'en 8ee, many mont0s later. T0is !robability of failure 80i$0 is ,no8n as t0e
failure rate -symbolised by t0e Bree, letter lamba . $an go t0roug0 t0ree distin$t failure !atterns. +at$0es of $om!onents
$an dis!lay one, t8o or all t0ree -Figure G +at0 "ur'e. of t0ese !atterns -stages. t0roug0 t0eir life time.
igure 9 8!th ,ur5e [ Table of Figures ] [ Failure T0eory Index ]
In t0e first of t0e t0ree stages, t0e failure rate !lunges do8n8ard ra!idly from a 'ery 0ig0 starting !oint 6 t0is is 1infant
mortality1. Failure during t0is stage $an be attributed almost entirely to manufa$turing ) installation defe$ts. Failure
$aused by manufa$turing defe$ts or !oor installation tend to s0o8 u! almost immediately, a$$ounting for t0e 0ig0
starting !oint. T0e term 1+urn In1 80i$0 $an also be used to des$ribe t0is !eriod, $omes from t0e $om!uter industry
80ere ne8 ma$0ines are run in a 0ot en'ironment before dis!at$0. &ny 0ard8are faults 8ill s0o8 u! ui$,ly in t0is
ele'ated tem!erature. ;n$e a ma$0ine !asses it s0all 0a'e a long trouble6free life. Eui!ment $an also return to t0e
infant mortality stage after maintenan$e inter'ention -Figure #<.. For 'arious reasons, eui!ment $an suffer !roblems as
a result of maintenan$e. 3lanned maintenan$e $an a$tually redu$e its a'ailability.
Exam!le> a grou! of similar bearings are $0anged e'ery year as !art of a !lanned maintenan$e a$ti'ity. If t0ey 8ere
$ondition monitored and $0anged on s0o8ing signs of imminent failure, it 8ould be found t0at t0ese bearings 0a'e an
a'erage life of %./ years. T0is o'er maintaining t0en results in in$reased !robability of failure due to t0e infant mortality
after ea$0 maintenan$e a$ti'ity.
igure 10 45er!ge "i&e !n+ p"!nne+ m!inten!nce inter5!"' [ Table of Figures ] [ Failure T0eory Index ]
2
&s t0e $ur'e le'els off, it enters t0e se$ond stage t0at is a straig0t segment indi$ating an essentially $onstant failure rate.
In t0e final stage, t0e failure rate $limbs s0ar!ly as s!ares 8earout.
In reality t0e bat0 $ur'e 0as little a!!li$ation in industrial !ro$ess. Hery sim!le $om!onents $an follo8 t0is failure
!attern su$0 as a lig0t bulb 80ere faulty manufa$ture may result in 'ery s0ort life. & rare exam!le of a more $om!lex
system t0at follo8s t0e bat0 $ur'e is a !etrol engine. Engines 0a'e to be ta,en $are of in t0eir early life to allo8 t0em to
1bed in1. Follo8ing t0is t0ey go t0roug0 a !eriod of $onstant failure. Most !etrol engines t0en fail follo8ing a life of
#<<,<<< to #/<,<<< miles. E'en t0is so $alled 8earout !eriod $an $o'er a signifi$ant !art of t0e engine9s life.
;. Si0 .!ttern' o& !i"ure - go to Top o& .!ge / - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
igure 11 Si0 p!ttern' o& &!i"ure [ Table of Figures ]
4
During t0e de'elo!ment of t0e +oeing 4(4, bat$0es of air$raft $om!onents 8ere tested to determine t0eir failure !atterns
-ref... T0e results are dis!layed in Figure ##.
Pattern A is t0e 8ell6,no8n bat0 $ur'e.
Pattern B s0o8s $onstant or slo8ly in$reasing failure !robability ending in a 8ear6out Ione.
Pattern C s0o8s slo8ly in$reasing !robability of failure, but t0ere is no identifiable 8ear6out age.
Pattern D s0o8s lo8 failure !robability 80en t0e item is ne8 or Just out of s0o!, t0en a ra!id in$rease to a $onstant
le'el.
3attern E s0o8s a $onstant !robability of failure at all ages -random failure..
Pattern F starts 8it0 0ig0 infant mortality, 80i$0 dro!s e'entually to a $onstant or 'ery slo8ly in$reasing failure
!robability.
In 0ig0ly $om!lex eui!ment, su$0 as an air$raft, infant mortality follo8ed by random failure is t0e dominating failure
!attern as s0o8n by t0e abo'e studies $arried out on $i'il air$raft. :it0in manufa$turing industry, a!!roximately 3<= of
industrial failures are related to age as in & ) +. :it0 in$reasing $om!lexity of modern eui!ment t0e failure !attern
from industry 8ill more $losely mat$0 t0e studies from t0e air$raft industry.
7. The 7!ture o& !i"ure - go to Top o& .!ge / - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
Failure !attern + de!i$ts age6related failures as in t0e figures from t0e air$raft industry 'ery fe8 failures s0o8 a relation6
s0i! 8it0 age. &n exam!le 8ould be abrasion, e.g. t0e abrasi'e a$tion of !iston rings on t0e $ylinder 8alls of a
re$i!ro$ating engine.
Failure !attern " s0o8s a steadily in$reasing !robability of failure, but t0ere is no one !oint at 80i$0 8e $an say, 1t0at9s
80ere it 8ears out1. "y$li$ stresses resulting in fatigue are t0e main $ause of t0is failure !attern.
Failure 3attern E is !ure random failure. &ll t0e em!iri$al e'iden$e s0o8s t0at rolling element bearings usually $onform
to a random failure !attern. 7o8e'er it is still !ossible to $om!ute a mean time bet8een failure -MT+F. for su$0 items.
It is gi'en as t0e !oint at 80i$0 23= of t0e items 0a'e failed. ;ften !oor MT+F for bearings $an be attributed to !oor
$0oi$e and@or fitting.
Failure !attern F is t0e most $ommon failure !attern and li,e t0e bat0 $ur'e s0o8s a failure rate de$reasing 8it0 age
before going into a !eriod of random failure. T0e 0ig0 infant mortality 0as a 'ariety of $auses>
!oor design bad 8or,mans0i!
in$orre$t installation !oor reassemble
in$orre$t $ommissioning in$orre$t o!eration
in'asi'e maintenan$e !oor uality manufa$ture
unne$essary routine maintenan$e $leanliness
5
<. 8e"" ,ur5e - go to Top o& .!ge / - !i"ure Theor# In+e0 /
Some engineers and managers tend to be o'er o!timisti$ about t0e effe$ti'eness of 3lanned Maintenan$e -3M.. T0ere
are limitations to 3M>
t0e limitations set by random failure e'ents. Random ma$0inery failure e'ents, a$$ording to t0eir definition,
$ould o$$ur 8it0 eual !robability in time. Identi$al $om!onents $ould be as li,ely to fail after # 8ee, as / years
after installation. In effe$t, t0ey are al8ays as good as ne8. T0ere is no !eriod of time after 80i$0 it 8ould be
effe$ti'e to $0ange t0ese $om!onents.
t0e life dis!ersion of ma$0inery $om!onents. E'en time de!endent failures are not all t0at !redi$table. T0ey do
not a!!ear after absolutely eual o!erating inter'als, but after 'ery dissimilar time !eriods -Figure #%.. T0is
dis!ersion in$reases as t0e MT+F in$reases.
T0e exam!le belo8 -failure distribution &. s0o8s t0e o$$urren$e of MT+F for a $om!ressor bearing>
#< bearings failed bet8een %./ years and 3./ years.
%< bearings failed bet8een 3./ years and (./ years, et$.
From 3.%/ years t0e in$ident of bearing failure started to in$rease
+y /./ years /<= of t0e bearings 0ad failed
Some bearings did not fail until 5./ years
Imagine a strategy of $0anging all t0e bearings at (.4 years.
T0e freuen$y of failure 0ad started to in$rease o'er a year earlier and some bearings 8ould $ontinue to run
satisfa$torily for anot0er 3.4 years. E'en t0oug0 t0is !lanned maintenan$e is <.5 years before t0e a'erage life of /./
years, a $onsiderable number of failures still o$$ur -area a A b..
T0is !lanned maintenan$e is ex!ensi'e in t0at it $0anges t0e maJority of bearings needlessly early -u! to 3.4 years early.
and it does not !re'ent failures as a small amount still o$$urs.
3lanned maintenan$e for failure distribution 1+1 in 80i$0 t0e maJority of failures o$$ur in t0e !eriod (.3 years to 4 years
8ould be more effe$ti'e. & 3M strategy at (.4 years 8ould allo8 a small number of failures -area b.. It again ta,es !la$e
<.5 years before t0e a'erage and % years before t0e maximum ex!e$ted life. :0ile in t0is $ase it is more suitable for 3M
t0an distribution 1&1, it still in$urs $osts due to early maintenan$e. Distribution & ty!e $ur'es 8ould be more usual in
industry t0an distribution +. For failure distribution 1+1 and !ossibly 1&1 "ondition +ased Maintenan$e 8ould be
suitable.
Bell Curves of
Failure
Distribution
Failure Failure
Distribution A Distribution B
MTBF Years Frequency of MTBF Years Frequency of
Occurrence Occurrence
0.5-1.5 10 0.5-1.5 10
G
1.5-.5 10 1.5-.5 10
.5-!.5 10 .5-!.5 10
!.5-".5 0 !.5-".5 10
".5-5.5 #0 ".5-5.5 !0
5.5-5.$5 100 5.5-5.$5 1#0
5.$5-%.5 #0 5.$5-%.5 %
%.5-$.5 0 %.5-$.5 "
$.5-#.5 10 $.5-#.5 0
igure 12 The 8e"" ,ur5e [ Table of Figures ] [ Failure T0eory Index ]
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