AIR PASSENGER MARKET ANALYSIS

APRIL 2014
KEY POINTS
Growth in air travel picked-up in April, rising 7.5% compared to a year ago. This is an acceleration on March,
when revenue passenger kilometers increased 2.9%. The year-on-year comparison is positively biased by the
timing of Easter, which occurred a month later than in 2013, boosting air travel in April 2014.
But even after adjusting for the Easter impact on April 2014 traffic, the first chart below shows there was a rise in
volumes. Prior to April, the trend had been toward moderating growth, which is consistent with developments in
demand drivers, so it is unclear if the April pick-up will be sustainable.
On international markets, all regions recorded acceleration in year-on-year growth rates in April compared to
March, but the timing of Easter has caused an upward bias on the growth rates. Airlines in Asia Pacific saw a
solid rise in international air travel, up 6.7% in April, and the month-to-month rise suggests some rebound in prior
weakness in the growth trend. However, economic conditions in the region do not support further acceleration in
growth, with China continuing to decelerate and J apan also starting to see some reversal of previous growth
momentum. International air travel on European airlines rose 7.9% on April. Indicators point to a pick-up in
economic growth in Europe in Q2, after weaker than expected performance in Q1, which bodes well for regional
carriers.
Domestic air travel varied significantly across markets in April, and also showed impacts of the Easter holiday
timing in some cases. Growth in some of the BRIC nations including China and Russia was near or above
double digits in April, up 9.9% and 10.3%, with economic growth significant enough in both countries to sustain
strong expansion in domestic air travel. In India, by contrast, growth reached just 2.7% in April. Although there is
positive sentiment toward the incoming government, inflation is high and consumer demand remains constrained.
Load factors improved in April, both compared to a year ago and to the previous month. The pick-up was
experienced across most regions and reflected the solid growth in demand in April. The trend in load factors
shows that weakness in previous months due to slowing demand has now paused.
The demand environment for air travel continues to signal growth, but there has been no further improvement in
key drivers over recent months. Performance of emerging markets, mostly in China, has weakened and placed
downward pressure of global growth. The duration of the weakness is unclear, but continued improvement in
advanced economies is likely to sustain a positive demand environment for air travel in months ahead.
11
13
14
15
16
17
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
510
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M
o
n
t
h
l
y

F
T
K

(
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
M
o
n
t
h
l
y

R
P
K

(
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
Total Air Freight and Passenger Volumes
Source: IATA (SeasonallyAdjusted)
Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs)
Freight Tonne Kilometers (FTKs)

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14
%

c
h
a
n
g
e

o
v
e
r

y
e
a
r
I
n
d
e
x

o
f

b
u
s
i
n
e
s
s

c
o
n
f
i
d
e
n
c
e
Worldwide growth in air travel and business confidence
Business Confidence
Growth in RPKs
Source: IATA, J P Morgan/Markit Source: IATA, J P Morgan/Markit




Year on Year Comparison Month on Month Comparison

Apr 2014 vs. Apr 2013 YTD 2014 vs. YTD 2013 Apr 2014 vs. Mar 2014

RPK ASK PLF RPK ASK PLF RPK ASK PLFpt
International 8.5% 6.9% 79.0% 6.1% 6.4% 78.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Domestic 5.8% 3.9% 80.2% 5.9% 4.9% 79.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4%
Total Market 7.5% 5.8% 79.4% 6.0% 5.8% 78.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2%

FTK: Freight-Tonne-Kilometers; AFTK: Available Freight Tonne Kilometers; FLF: Freight Load Factor. All
Figures are expressed in % change Year on Year except FLF which are the load factors for the specific
month.

Data are seasonally adjusted. All figures are expressed
in % change MoM except, FLFpt which are the
percentage point difference between LF of two months.
Air Passenger Market Anal ysis
April 2014
PASSENGER MARKET
International Markets
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M
o
n
t
h
l
y

R
P
K
s

(
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
)
International Passenger Market
Source: IATA
Actual Seasonally Adjusted

-2.9%
0.6%
2.0%
4.5%
9.2%
0.6%
2.3%
3.9%
6.7%
7.9%
8.2%
18.6%
4.9%
8.5%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America
Middle East North
America
Industry
%

G
r
o
w
t
h

Y
o
Y

i
n

R
P
K
s
International Passenger Growth by Region
Source: IATA
Mar-14 Apr-14


On international markets, all regions recorded acceleration in year-on-year growth rates in April compared to
March, but the timing of Easter has caused an upward bias on the growth rates. But even after adjusting for the
Easter impact, the first chart above shows there was a rise in volumes in April. The trend during the recent past
had moderated, which is consistent with developments in demand drivers, so it is unclear if the April pick-up will
be sustainable.
Airlines in Asia Pacific saw a solid rise in international air travel, up 6.7% in April, and the month-to-month rise
suggests some rebound in prior weakness in the growth trend. However, economic conditions in the region do not
support further acceleration in growth, with China continuing to show weakness and J apan starting to see some
reversal of previous growth momentum. Growth in China is strong compared to most advanced economies, but
rates have slowed and have caused domestic demand and employment to fall. Both developments do not bode
well for air travel demand for regional carriers. In J apan, a recent sales tax increase has caused indicators for
economic activity to decline sharply in April.
International air travel on European airlines rose 7.9% on April. In the Eurozone, economic activity continues to
improve slowly, but economic growth in Q1 2014 came in at 0.2%, below expectations of 0.4%. Measures of
business activity point to acceleration in economic growth in Europe in Q2, after weaker than expected
performance in Q1, which is encouraging for regional carriers.
North American airlines international RPKs rose 4.9% in April year-on-year. Latest data suggested that
underlying growth trends in business activity are positive and downward pressure on employment is easing,
which should support stronger growth in air travel demand in coming months.
Carriers in Latin America and Middle East recorded the strongest increases in international air travel in April,
rising 8.2% and 18.6%, respectively. Airlines in the Middle East continue to benefit from the strength of regional
economies and solid growth in business-related premium travel. The outlook for Latin American carriers remains
broadly positive, with continued robust performance of economies like Colombia, Peru and Chile, and the
upcoming demand to be generated by the FIFA World Cup in Brazil. On the downside, however, trade volumes
have made no progress this year compared to the highs reached at the end of 2013, which means acceleration in
business-related travel is unlikely in the near term.
By contrast, airlines in Africa saw the slowest rates of growth among regions, with international RPKs up 3.9%.
And in fact growth year-to-date has been just 1%. The weakness in international air travel for regional carriers
over recent months could be in part reflecting adverse economic developments in some parts of the continent,
with the slowdown of the major economy of South Africa.
Air Passenger Market Anal ysis
April 2014
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%

o
f

A
S
K
s
Passenger Load Factor on International Market
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA

68.9%
76.4%
79.5%
76.9%
77.0%
79.6%
77.8%
66.2%
75.7%
81.4%
79.1%
80.8%
80.8%
79.0%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America
Middle East North
America
Industry
%

A
S
K
s
International Passenger Load Factor by Region
Source: IATA
Apr-13 Apr-14


Domestic Market
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M
o
n
t
h
l
y

R
P
K
s

(
B
i
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l
i
o
n
)
Domestic Passenger Market
Source: IATA
Actual Seasonally Adjusted

1.5%
11.5%
4.7%
1.4%
10.2%
12.9%
2.2%
3.9%
4.5%
11.1%
9.9%
2.7%
5.4%
10.3%
3.8%
5.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Australia Brazil China, P.R. India Japan Russian
Federation
USA Industry
%

G
r
o
w
t
h

Y
o
Y

i
n

R
P
K
s
Domestic Passenger Growth by Country
Source: IATA
Mar-14 Apr-14


Domestic air travel demand varied significantly across markets in April, also showing impacts of the Easter
holiday timing in some cases. The overall rise in April was 5.8%, well above growth in March at 3.9%.
Growth in some of the BRIC nations including China and Russia was near or above double digits in April, up
9.9% and 10.3% respectively, with economic growth significant enough in both countries to sustain strong
expansion in domestic air travel. Growth in Brazil was also very strong, rising 11.1% in April compared to a year
ago. Although economic fundamentals do not support the acceleration seen in 2014 so far, there could be some
positive impacts of preparation for the FIFA World Cup.
In India, by contrast, growth reached just 2.7% in April. Although there is positive sentiment toward the incoming
government, inflation remains high and investment growth has slowed. As a result, consumer confidence and
demand remains constrained.
In the US, domestic air travel rose 3.8% in April year-on-year. Domestic air travel in the US should receive
support for continued growth with recent increases in consumer confidence throughout the year as well as rising
employment activity.
Growth in J apans domestic air travel market was a solid 5.4% in April compared to a year ago, but this is a
slowdown on growth year-to-date (7.9%). The introduction of a sales tax increase (mentioned previously), could
erode some of the previous progress made by the government to boost growth and domestic demand, which
would inevitably weaken the demand base for air travel also.
Air travel growth in Australia was up just 4.5% in April year-on-year. The outlook for domestic demand is mixed;
there have been recent improvements in the unemployment rate and business sentiment, but the announcement
of the latest budget placed downward pressure on consumer confidence.

Air Passenger Market Anal ysis
April 2014
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%

o
f

A
S
K
s
Passenger Load Factor on Domestic Market
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA

74.4%
72.7%
79.8%
76.2%
59.0%
71.2%
83.1%
78.8%
74.9%
79.1%
79.8%
73.9%
60.1%
74.7%
85.3%
80.2%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Australia Brazil China, P.R. India Japan Russian
Federation
USA Industry
%

A
S
K
s
Domestic Passenger Load Factor by Country
Source: IATA
Apr-13 Apr-14



Total Market (Domestic + International)
280
330
380
430
480
530
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M
o
n
t
h
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y

R
P
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s

(
B
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l
i
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n
)
Total Passenger Market
Source: IATA
Actual Seasonally Adjusted

-3.5%
2.3%
2.7%
7.2%
8.9%
1.6%
2.9%
2.2%
7.0%
7.9%
9.9%
17.9%
4.2%
7.5%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America
Middle East North
America
Industry
%

G
r
o
w
t
h

Y
o
Y

i
n

R
P
K
s
Total Passenger Growth by Region
Source: IATA
Mar-14 Apr-14


73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%

o
f

A
S
K
s
Passenger Load Factor on Total Market
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA

70.0%
76.3%
78.6%
75.0%
77.3%
81.9%
78.2%
67.2%
75.9%
80.7%
78.7%
80.9%
83.7%
79.4%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America
Middle East North
America
Industry
%

o
f

A
S
K
s
Total Passenger Load Factor by Region
Source: IATA
Apr-13 Apr-14











Air Passenger Market Anal ysis
April 2014
ANNEX

Year on Year
Comparison
Apr 2014 vs Apr 2013 YTD 2014 vs. YTD 2013


RPK ASK PLF RPK ASK PLF
Africa 3.9% 8.1% 66.2% 1.0% 5.3% 65.9%
Asia/Pacific 6.7% 7.7% 75.7% 4.9% 6.5% 76.6%
Europe 7.9% 5.4% 81.4% 5.6% 5.6% 79.0%
Latin America 8.2% 5.2% 79.1% 5.3% 2.9% 79.5%
Middle East 18.6% 13.1% 80.8% 14.8% 12.8% 80.0%
North America 4.9% 3.3% 80.8% 3.0% 3.6% 79.4%
International 8.5% 6.9% 79.0% 6.1% 6.4% 78.0%
Australia 4.5% 3.9% 74.9% 3.9% 3.7% 75.6%
Brazil 11.1% 2.1% 79.1% 10.4% 3.0% 79.6%
China P.R. 9.9% 9.8% 79.8% 12.1% 11.9% 81.2%
India 2.7% 5.8% 73.9% 1.0% 7.4% 72.4%
Japan 5.4% 3.4% 60.1% 7.9% 5.6% 63.9%
Russian Federation 10.3% 5.0% 74.7% 11.2% 11.3% 69.6%
US 3.8% 1.1% 85.3% 2.1% 0.5% 83.7%
Domestic 5.8% 3.9% 80.2% 5.9% 4.9% 79.8%
Africa 2.2% 6.4% 67.2% 0.0% 4.2% 67.0%
Asia/Pacific 7.0% 7.6% 75.9% 6.9% 7.9% 77.0%
Europe 7.9% 5.2% 80.7% 6.0% 5.8% 78.0%
Latin America 9.9% 4.8% 78.7% 7.7% 3.8% 79.4%
Middle East 17.9% 12.6% 80.9% 14.2% 12.3% 80.2%
North America 4.2% 2.0% 83.7% 2.4% 1.6% 82.1%
Total Market 7.5% 5.8% 79.4% 6.0% 5.8% 78.7%
RPK: Revenue-Passenger-Kilometers; ASK: Available-Seat-Kilometers; PLF: Passenger-Load-Factor;
All Figures are expressed in % change Year on Year except PLFwhich are the load factors for the specific month.




















Air Passenger Market Anal ysis
April 2014





Month on Month
Comparison
Apr 2014 vs. Mar 2014 Market Share


RPK ASK PLFpt RPK
Africa 0.7% 2.0% -0.8% 3.1%
Asia/Pacific 2.6% 2.3% 0.3% 26.5%
Europe 0.7% 0.9% -0.2% 38.3%
Latin America -0.2% 0.4% -0.5% 4.3%
Middle East 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 14.2%
North America 1.8% -0.1% 1.6% 13.6%
International 1.5% 1.2% 0.2% 100.0%
Australia 0.3% 1.0% -0.7% 3.3%
Brazil 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 4.1%
China P.R. 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 21.8%
India -1.8% -1.1% -0.6% 2.8%
Japan -1.0% -0.4% -0.4% 2.8%
Russian Federation -1.9% -2.6% 0.5% 3.3%
US 0.2% -0.5% 0.7% 44.5%
Domestic 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 100.0%
Africa 0.5% 1.7% -0.8% 2.3%
Asia/Pacific 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 30.1%
Europe 0.7% 0.9% -0.1% 27.2%
Latin America 0.4% 0.9% -0.4% 5.3%
Middle East 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 9.5%
North America 0.8% -0.3% 0.9% 25.5%
Total Market 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 100%
Data are seasonally adjusted. All figures are expressed in % change MoM except,
FLFpt which are the percentage point difference between load factors of two months.



IATA Economics
E-Mail: economics@iata.org
28
TH
May 2014











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