NGHIN CU CC NHN T

NH HNG N CHI TIU CHO

INTERNET TI TP NNG
Cc thnh vin:
1. Hunh Th Kim Duyn
2. Nguyn Tn Xun Phc
3. Nguyn Th Thanh Phng
4. Hunh c Tn Vinh
NI DUNG TI
Phn I: M u

Phn II: Thit lp, phn tch, nh gi m hnh

Phn III: Kim nh cc hin tng trong m
hnh hi quy

Phn IV: Kt lun

THIT LP M HNH
Bin ph thuc: Y - s tin chi tiu cho internet hng thng
(nghn ng/ thng).
Bin c lp: M hnh gm 5 bin c lp:
X
1
- thu nhp bnh qun hng thng (nghn ng/thng), k
vng mang du dng.
X
2
- cht lng dch v (tc ng truyn, dch v hu
mi), k vng mang du dng.
X
3
- nhm tui, k vng mang du m.
X
4
- mc s dng internet, k vng mang du dng.
X
5
- gi cc, k vng mang du dng.
M hnh hi quy tng th:
Y =
0
+
1
X
1
+
2
X
2
+
3
X
3
+
4
X
4
+
5
X
5 +

.

THIT LP M HNH

M hnh hi quy mu:
Y= -302.2783 + 0.00748X
1
+ 97.83939X
2
-
7.697797X
3
+ 6.578608X
4
+ 55.66639X
5
+ e
i


Kt qu chy chng trnh EViews:
NGHA CC H S HI QUY
c ngha l khi cc yu t khc khng i nu thu
nhp tng (gim) 1 nghn ng th chi tiu cho internet tng (gim)
0.007480 nghn ng.

2
= 97.83939 c ngha l khi cc yu t khc khng i nu cht
lng dch v tng (gim) 1 n v th chi tiu cho internet tng (gim)
97.83939 nghn ng.

3
= -7.697797 c ngha l khi cc yu t khc khng i nu ngi
s dng nhm tui tng (gim) 1 n v th chi tiu cho internet gim
(tng) 7.697797 nghn ng.

4
= 6.578608 c ngha l khi cc yu t khc khng i nu mc
s dng tng (gim) 1 n v th chi tiu cho internet tng (gim)
6.578608 nghn ng.

5
= 55.66639 c ngha l khi cc yu t khc khng i nu gi
cc tng (gim) 1 nghn ng th chi tiu cho internet tng (gim)
55.66639 nghn ng.

KIM TRA NGHA H S HI QUY
Gi thit: H
0
:
i
= 0
H
1
:
i
0. Vi mc ngha 5%, ta c:

prob(X
1
) = 0.0000 < = 0.05
prob(X
2
) = 0.0000 < = 0.05
prob(X
5
) = 0.0000 < = 0.05



prob(X
3
) = 0.115 > = 0.05
prob(X
4
) = 0.163 > = 0.05





Bc b gi thit H
0
. Ngha l thu
nhp, cht lng dch v, gi cc
c nh hng n chi tiu cho
internet hng thng.
Chp nhn gi thit H
0
. Ngha l
nhm tui, mc s dng khng
nh hng n chi tiu cho internet
hng thng.
KIM NH S PH HP CA M HNH
Kim nh gi thit H
0
: R
2
= 0
H
1
: R
2
0 vi mc ngha 5%

Ta c: Prob(F-statistic) = 0.000000 < = 0.05:
bc b gi thit H
0
.
Vy m hnh ph hp vi mc ngha 5%.

KIM NH A CNG TUYN
M hnh hi quy mi:
Y= -302.7344 + 0.006855X
1
+ 99.62295X
2
+ 55.4695X
5

+ e
i


Sau khi xc nh nhng bin khng nh hng n chi
tiu cho internet, chy li chng trnh EViews ta xc
nh c m hnh hi quy mi.
KIM NH A CNG TUYN
Ta thy r
12
= 0.448032; r
15
= 0.503905; r
25
=
0.543045 u nh hn 0.8 nn khng c xy ra
hin tng a cng tuyn.
KIM NH PHNG SAI THAY I
Ta thy: Prob. Chi-Square(8) = 0.0000 < 0.05 : bc
b gi thit H
o.
Vy m hnh tn ti hin tng
phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i.

Kim nh gi thit H
0
: Phng sai khng thay i
H
1
: Phng sai thay i
Tin hnh kim nh White, ta c kt qu sau:
KIM NH T TNG QUAN
Kim nh gi thit:
H
0
: = 0

(khng c tng quan bc 1)
H
1
: 0 (c tng quan bc 1)

Ta c : d = 1.995633
Vi n = 200,
k = 3 k= k-1 = 2
Tra bng Durbin Watson
vi n = 200, k = 2 ta c:
d
U
= 1.789
d
L
= 1.748
Vy d
U
= 1.789

< d =
1.995633: chp nhn gi
thit H
0.

Tc l m hnh khng c
hin tng t tng quan
bc 1.

KT LUN
M hnh hi quy cui cng l:
Y= -302.7344 + 0.006855X
1
+ 99.62295X
2
+ 55.4695X
5
+ e
i

- Thu nhp, cht lng dch v, gi cc c nh hng
n chi tiu cho internet hng thng.
- Cc bin c lp gii thch c 80,89% s bin ng
ca bin ph thuc, v vy m hnh c ph hp cao.
- Khng c hin tng a cng tuyn, khng c hin
tng t tng quan. Tuy nhin cn c hin tng
phng sai thay i.