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covnn cu
THE WI NDI NG PATHS
OF CAPI TAL
!ntcrvicw by Duvid !urvcy
Ccu|d ycu tc|| us ubcut ycur juni|y buckgrcund und ycur cducuticn?
I
ws son n Milan in ;. On ny nothoi`s sido, ny lan-
ily lackgiound was louigoois. My giandlathoi, tho son ol Swiss
innigiants to Italy, had iison lion tho ianks ol tho laloui
aiistociacy to ostallish his own lactoiios in tho oaily twontioth
contuiy, nanulactuiing toxtilo nachinoiy and latoi, hoating and aii-
conditioning oquipnont. My lathoi was tho son ol a iailway woikoi,
loin in Tuscany. Ho cano to Milan and got a jol in ny natoinal giand-
lathoi`s lactoiyin othoi woids, ho ondod up naiiying tho loss`s
daughtoi. Thoio woio tonsions, which ovontually iosultod in ny lathoi
sotting up his own lusinoss, in conpotition with his lathoi-in-law. Both
shaiod anti-lascist sontinonts, howovoi, and that gioatly inuoncod ny
oaily childhood, doninatod as it was ly tho wai: tho Nazi occupation ol
Noithoin Italy altoi Rono`s suiiondoi in q, tho Rosistanco and tho
aiiival ol tho Alliod tioops.
My lathoi diod suddonly in a cai accidont, whon I was 8. I docidod to
koop his conpany going, against ny giandlathoi`s advico, and ontoiod
tho Univoisit Bocconi to study ocononics, hoping it would holp no
undoistand how to iun tho hin. Tho Econonics Dopaitnont was a noo-
classical stionghold, untouchod ly Koynosianisn ol any kind, and no
holp at all with ny lathoi`s lusinoss. I hnally ioalizod I would havo to
closo it down. I thon spont two yoais on tho shop-ooi ol ono ol ny
oz iv 6
giandlathoi`s hins, collocting data on tho oiganization ol tho pioduction
piocoss. Tho study convincod no that tho ologant gonoial-oquililiiun
nodols ol noo-classical ocononics woio iiiolovant to an undoistanding
ol tho pioduction and distiilution ol inconos. This locano tho lasis ol
ny dissoitation. Thon I was appointod as ussistcntc vc|cnturic, oi unpaid
toaching assistant to ny piolossoiin thoso days, tho hist iung on tho
laddoi in Italian univoisitios. To oain ny living I got a jol with Unilovoi,
as a tiainoo nanagoi.
!cw did it ccnc ubcut tnut ycu wcnt tc Ajricu in r6, tc wcrk in tnc
Univcrsity Cc||cgc cj Rncdcsiu und Nyusu|und?
Why I wont thoio was piotty stiaightloiwaid. I loaint that Biitish uni-
voisitios woio actually paying pooplo to toach and do iosoaichunliko
tho position in Italy, whoio you had to soivo loi loui oi hvo yoais as an
ussistcntc vc|cnturic loloio thoio was any hopo ol a paid jol. In tho oaily
oos tho Biitish woio sotting up univoisitios thioughout thoii loinoi
colonial onpiio, as collogos ol Biitish onos. Tho 0cn was a collogo ol
tho Univoisity ol London. I had put in loi two positions, ono in Rhodosia
and ono in Singapoio. Thoy callod no loi an intoiviow in London and,
locauso tho 0cn was intoiostod, thoy olloiod no tho jol as Loctuioi in
Econonics. So I wont.
It was a tiuo intolloctual ioliith. Tho nathonatically nodollod noo-
classical tiadition I`d loon tiainod in had nothing to say alout tho
piocossos I was olsoiving in Rhodosia, oi tho ioalitios ol Aliican lilo.
At 0cn I woikod alongsido social anthiopologists, paiticulaily Clydo
Mitcholl, who was alioady doing woik on notwoik analysis, and Jaap Van
Volson, who was intioducing situational analysis, latoi ioconcoptual-
izod as oxtondod caso-study analysis. I wont to thoii soninais iogulaily
and was gioatly inuoncod ly tho two ol thon. Giadually, I alandonod
alstiact nodolling loi tho concioto, onpiiically and histoiically gioundod
thooiy ol social anthiopology. I logan ny long naich lion noo-classical
ocononics to conpaiativo-histoiical sociology.
Tnis wus tnc ccntct jcr ycur r66 cssuy, Tnc Pc|iticu| Eccncny cj Rncdcsiu,
wnicn unu|yscd tnc jcrns cj cupitu|ist c|uss dcvc|cpncnt tncrc, und tncir spc-
cijc ccntrudicticnscp|uining tnc dynunics tnut |cd tc tnc victcry cj tnc
sctt|crs Rncdcsiun Frcnt Purty in r6., und tc Snitns Uni|utcru| Dcc|uruticn
cj !ndcpcndcncc in r6. Wnut wus tnc initiu| inpu|sc bcnind tnc cssuy, und
wnut is its inpcrtuncc jcr ycu, |ccking buck?
tvvicii: o
'Tho Political Econony ol Rhodosia` was wiitton at tho incitonont ol Van
Volson, who was iolontlossly ciitical ol ny uso ol nathonatical nodols.
I had dono a ioviow ol Colin Loys`s look, Eurcpcun Pc|itics in Scutncrn
Rncdcsiu, and Van Volson suggostod I dovolop it into a longoi aiticlo.
Hoio, and in 'Laloui Supplios in Histoiical Poispoctivo`, I analysod
tho ways in which tho lull piolotaiianization ol tho Rhodosian poas-
antiy cioatod contiadictions loi capital accunulationin lact, ondod
up pioducing noio piollons than advantagos loi tho capitalist soctoi.
As long as piolotaiianization was paitial, it cioatod conditions in which
tho Aliican poasants sulsidizod capital accunulation, locauso thoy pio-
ducod pait ol thoii own sulsistonco, lut tho noio piolotaiianizod tho
poasantiy locano, tho noio thoso nochanisns logan to lioak down.
Fully piolotaiianizod laloui could lo oxploitod only il it was paid a lull
living wago. Thus, instoad ol naking it oasioi to oxploit laloui, piolotaii-
anization was actually naking it noio dilhcult, and olton ioquiiod tho
iogino to locono noio iopiossivo. Maitin Logassick and Haiold Wolpo,
loi oxanplo, naintainod that South Aliican Apaithoid was piinaiily duo
to tho lact that tho iogino had to locono noio iopiossivo ol tho Aliican
laloui loico locauso it was lully piolotaiianizod, and could no longoi
sulsidizo capital accunulation as it had dono in tho past.
Tho wholo southoin iogion ol Aliicastiotching lion South Aliica
and Botswana thiough tho loinoi Rhodosias, Mozanliquo, Malawi,
which was thon Nyasaland, up to Konya, as tho noith-oast outpostwas
chaiactoiizod ly ninoial woalth, sottloi agiicultuio and oxtiono dis-
possossion ol tho poasantiy. It is voiy dilloiont lion tho iost ol Aliica,
including tho noith. Wost Aliican ocononios woio ossontially poasant-
lasod. But tho southoin iogionwhat Sanii Anin callod 'tho Aliica ol
tho laloui iosoivos`was in nany ways a paiadign ol oxtiono poasant
dispossossion, and thus piolotaiianization. Sovoial ol us woio point-
ing out that this piocoss ol oxtiono dispossossion was contiadictoiy.
Initially it cioatod tho conditions loi tho poasantiy to sulsidizo capital-
ist agiicultuio, nining, nanulactuiing and so on. But incioasingly it
cioatod dilhcultios in oxploiting, nolilizing, contiolling tho piolotaiiat
that was loing cioatod. Tho woik that wo woio doing thonny 'Laloui
Supplios in Histoiical Poispoctivo`, and iolatod woiks ly Logassick and
Bovoily J. Silvoi, Fcrccs cj Lubcur. Wcrkcrs Mcvcncnts und C|cbu|izuticn Sincc r6,c,
Canliidgo zoo.
o
Aiiighi and Silvoi, Cnucs und Ccvcrnuncc in tnc Mcdcrn Wcr|d Systcn,
Minnoapolis .
tvvicii: ;
that intoi-capitalist iivaliios tuining into wais would cioato lavouiallo
conditions loi iovolution, which is sonothing that can lo olsoivod
onpiiically up to tho Socond Woild Wai. In a sonso ono could aiguo that,
in tho piosont tiansition, tho spooding up ol social conict has piovontod
capitalist statos lion waging wais on ono anothoi. So, to iotuin to youi
quostion, in Tnc Lcng Twcntictn Ccntury I choso to locus on olaloiating
lully tho aigunont alout hnancial oxpansions, systonic cyclos ol capital
accunulation and woild hogononios, lut in Cnucs und Ccvcrnuncc wo
iotuinod to tho issuo ol tho intoi-iolations lotwoon social conict, hnan-
cial oxpansions and hogononic tiansitions.
!n nis discussicn cj prinitivc uccunu|uticn, Mur writcs ubcut tnc nuticnu|
dcbt, tnc crcdit systcn, tnc bunkccrucyin u wuy, tnc intcgruticn bctwccn
jnuncc und stutc tnut cccurrcd during prinitivc uccunu|uticnus bcing
ubsc|utc|y criticu| tc tnc wuy in wnicn u cupitu|ist systcn cvc|vcs. But tnc unu|-
ysis in Capital rcjuscs tc dcu| witn tnc crcdit systcn unti| ycu gct tc Voluno
Thioo, bccuusc Mur dccsnt wunt tc dcu| witn intcrcst, cvcn tncugn tnc crcdit
systcn kccps cn ccning up us cruciu| tc tnc ccntru|izuticn cj cupitu|, tc tnc
crgunizuticn cj jcd cupitu|, und sc cn. Tnis ruiscs tnc qucsticn cj ncw c|uss
strugg|c uctuu||y wcrks urcund tnc jnunccstutc ncus, wnicn p|uys tnc vitu|
rc|c tnut ycurc pcinting tc. Tncrc sccns tc bc u gup in Murs unu|ysis. cn tnc
cnc nund, suying tnc inpcrtunt dynunic is tnut bctwccn cupitu| und |ubcur,
cn tnc ctncr nund, |ubcur dccsnt sccn tc bc cruciu| tc tnc prcccsscs tnut ycurc
tu|king ubcuttrunsjcrcnccs cj ncgcncny, junping cj scu|cs. !ts undcrstund-
ub|c tnut Tho Long Twontioth Contuiy nud u nurd tinc intcgruting |ubcur
intc tnut stcry, bccuusc in u scnsc tnc cupitu||ubcur rc|uticn is nct ccntru| tc
tnut uspcct cj tnc cupitu|ist dynunic. Wcu|d ycu ugrcc witn tnut?
Yos, I agioo, with ono qualihcation: tho phonononon I nontionod ol
tho spooding up ol social histoiy. Tho woikoi stiugglos ol tho oos
and oaily ;os, loi oxanplo, woio a najoi lactoi in tho hnancializa-
tion ol tho lato ;os and 8os, and tho ways in which it ovolvod. Tho
iolationship lotwoon woikois` and sulaltoin stiugglos and hnancializa-
tion is sonothing that changos ovoi tino, and has iocontly dovolopod
chaiactoiistics that it didn`t havo loloio. But il you aio tiying to oxplain
tho iocuiionco ol hnancial oxpansions, you cannot locus too nuch on
laloui, locauso thon you will lo talking only alout tho latost cyclo, you
aio lound to nako tho nistako ol taking laloui as tho causo ol hnancial
oxpansions, whon oailioi onos took oll without tho intoivontion ol woik-
ois` oi sulaltoin stiugglos.
;o iv 6
Sti|| cn tnc qucsticn cj |ubcur, tncn, ccu|d wc truck buck tc ycur rc cssuy
cn tnc rcnuking cj tnc wcr|d |ubcur ncvcncnt, Murist Ccntury, Ancricun
Ccntury.
;
Ycu urgucd tncrc tnut Murs ucccunt cj tnc wcrking c|uss in tnc
Manilosto is dccp|y ccntrudictcry, sincc it strcsscs ut cncc tnc incrcusing
cc||cctivc pcwcr cj |ubcur, us cupitu|ist dcvc|cpncnt prccccds, und its incrcus-
ing inniscruticn, ccrrcspcnding in cjjcct tc un uctivc industriu| urny und u
rcscrvc urny. Mur, ycu pcintcd cut, tncugnt tnut bctn tcndcncics wcu|d bc
unitcd in tnc sunc nunun nuss, but ycu wcnt cn tc urguc tnut, in tnc cur|y
twcntictn ccntury, tncy in juct bccunc sputiu||y pc|urizcd. !n Scundinuviu und
tnc Ang|cspncrc, tnc jrst prcvui|cd, in Russiu und jurtncr cust tnc scccnd
Bcrnstcin cupturing tnc situuticn cj tnc jcrncr, Lcnin cj tnc |uttcr|cuding tc
tnc sp|it bctwccn rcjcrnist und rcvc|uticnury wings cj tnc |ubcur ncvcncnt.
!n Ccntru| EurcpcCcrnuny, Austriu, !tu|ycn tnc ctncr nund, ycu urgucd
tnut tncrc wus u ncrc juctuuting bu|uncc bctwccn uctivc und rcscrvc, |cuding
tc Kuutskys cquivccuticns, unub|c tc cnccsc bctwccn rcjcrn cr rcvc|uticn,
ccntributing tc tnc victcry cj juscisn. At tnc cnd cj tnc cssuy ycu suggcstcd
tnut u rcccnpcsiticn cj tnc |ubcur ncvcncnt nignt bc ccning ubcutniscry
rcuppcuring in tnc Wcst, witn tnc rcturn cj widcsprcud uncnp|cyncnt, und
cc||cctivc pcwcr cj wcrkcrs, witn tnc risc cj Sc|idurity, in tnc Eust, pcrnups
rcuniting wnut spucc und nistcry nud dividcd. Wnut is ycur vicw cj sucn u
prcspcct tcduy?
Woll, tho hist thing is that, along with this optinistic sconaiio lion tho
point ol viow ol uniting tho conditions ol tho woiking class glolally,
thoio was a noio possinistic considoiation in tho ossay, pointing to
sonothing that I`vo always considoiod a voiy soiious aw in Maix and
Engols`s Munijcstc. Thoio is a logical loap that doos not ioally hold up,
intolloctually oi histoiicallytho idoa that, loi capital, thoso things that
wo would today call gondoi, othnicity, nationality, do not nattoi. That tho
only thing that nattois loi capital is tho possilility ol oxploitation, and
thoioloio tho nost oxploitallo status gioup within tho woiking class is
tho ono thoy will onploy, without any disciinination on tho lasis ol iaco,
gondoi, othnicity. That`s coitainly tiuo. Howovoi, it doosn`t lollow that tho
vaiious status gioups within tho woiking class will just accopt this. In
lact, it is piocisoly at tho point whon piolotaiianization loconos gonoial-
izod, and woikois aio suljoctod to this disposition ol capital, that thoy
will nolilizo whatovoi status dilloionco thoy can idontily oi constiuct to
win a piivilogod tioatnont lion tho capitalists. Thoy will nolilizo along
;
Aiiighi, 'Maixist Contuiy, Anoiican Contuiy: Tho Making and Ronaking ol tho
Woild Laloui Movonont`, n ];, JanFol o.
tvvicii: ;;
gondoi linos, national linos, othnicity oi whatovoi, to oltain a piivilogod
tioatnont lion capital.
'Maixist Contuiy, Anoiican Contuiy` is thoioloio not as optinistic as
it night havo soonod, locauso it pointod to this intoinal woiking-class
tondoncy to accontuato status dilloioncos, to piotoct thonsolvos lion
tho disposition ol capital to tioat laloui as an undilloiontiatod nass that
would lo onployod only to tho oxtont that it onallod capital to ioap piol-
its. So tho aiticlo ondod on an optinistic noto, that thoio is a tondoncy
towaid lovolling, lut at tho sano tino ono should oxpoct woikois to hght
to piotoct thonsolvos thiough status-gioup loination oi consolidation
against this voiy tondoncy.
Dccs tnis ncun tnut tnc dijjcrcntiuticn bctwccn tnc uctivc urny und tnc indus-
triu| rcscrvc urny u|sc tcnds tc bc stutus-dividcdruciu|izcd, ij ycu wi||?
It doponds. Il you look at tho piocoss glolallywhoio tho iosoivo ainy
is not just tho unonployod, lut also tho disguisodly unonployod and
tho oxcludodthon dohnitoly thoio is a status division lotwoon tho
two. Nationality has loon usod ly sognonts ol tho woiking class, ol tho
activo ainy, to dilloiontiato thonsolvos lion tho glolal iosoivo ainy. At
a national lovol, this is loss cloai. Il you tako tho Unitod Statos oi Euiopo,
it`s nuch loss appaiont that thoio is actually a status dilloionco lotwoon
tho activo and iosoivo ainy. But with innigiants cuiiontly coning lion
countiios that aio nuch pooioi, anti-innigiation sontinonts which aio
a nanilostation ol this tondoncy to cioato status distinctions within tho
woiking class havo giown. So it`s a voiy conplicatod pictuio, paiticulaily
il you look at tiansnational nigiation ows, and at tho situation whoio
tho iosoivo ainy is piinaiily concontiatod in tho glolal South iathoi
than tho Noith.
!n ycur rr urtic|c, Wcr|d !nccnc !ncquu|itics und tnc Futurc cj Scciu|isn,
ycu sncwcd tnc ctrucrdinury stubi|ity cj tnc rcgicnu| wcu|tn nicrurcny in tnc
twcntictn ccnturytnc ctcnt tc wnicn tnc gup in pcr cupitu inccnc bctwccn
tnc ccrc Ncrtn,Wcst und tnc scni-pcripncru| und pcripncru| Scutn,Eust cj tnc
wcr|d nud rcnuincd uncnungcd, cr uctuu||y dccpcncd, ujtcr nu|j u ccntury cj
dcvc|cpncntu|isn.
8
Ccnnunisn, ycu pcintcd cut, nud jui|cd tc c|csc tnis gup
in Russiu, Eustcrn Eurcpc und Cninu, tncugn it nud dcnc nc wcrsc in tnis
8
Aiiighi, 'Woild Incono Inoqualitios and tho Futuio ol Socialisn`, n ]8,
SoptOct .
;8 iv 6
rcspcct tnun cupitu|isn in Lutin Ancricu, Scutncust Asiu cr Ajricu, und in
ctncr rcspcctsu ncrc cgu|ituriun distributicn cj inccnc witnin sccicty, und
grcutcr indcpcndcncc cj tnc stutc jrcn tnc Ncrtn,Wcstcrn ccrcit nud dcnc
signijcunt|y bcttcr. A ccup|c cj dccudcs |utcr, Cninu nus cbvicus|y brckcn tnc
puttcrn ycu wcrc dcscribing tncn. !cw jur did tnis ccnccr nct ccncus u
surprisc tc ycu?
Fiist ol all, wo should not oxaggoiato tho oxtont to which China has lio-
kon tho pattoin. Tho lovol ol poi capita incono in China was so lowand
still is low, conpaiod to tho woalthy countiiosthat ovon najoi advancos
nood to lo qualihod. China has doullod its position iolativo to tho iich
woild, lut still that only noans going lion z poi cont ol tho avoiago poi
capita incono ol tho woalthy countiios to q poi cont. It is tiuo that China
has loon docisivo in pioducing a ioduction in woild incono inoquali-
tios bctwccn countiios. Il you tako China out, tho South`s position has
woisonod sinco tho 8os, il you koop it in, thon tho South has inpiovod
sonowhat, duo alnost oxclusivoly to China`s advanco. But ol couiso,
thoio has loon a lig giowth in inoquality within tho vc, so China has
also contiilutod to tho woild-scalo incioaso in inoqualitios witnin coun-
tiios in iocont docados. Taking tho two noasuios togothoiinoquality
lotwoon and within countiiosstatistically China has liought alout a
ioduction in total glolal inoquality. Wo should not oxaggoiato thistho
woild pattoin is still ono ol hugo gaps, which aio loing ioducod in snall
ways. Howovoi, it`s inpoitant locauso it changos iolationships ol powoi
lotwoon countiios. Il it continuos, it nay ovon chango tho glolal distii-
lution ol incono lion ono that is still voiy polaiizod to a noio noinal,
Paioto-typo distiilution.
Was I suipiisod at this? To sono oxtont, yos. In lact, that`s why I shiltod
ny intoiost ovoi tho last hltoon yoais to studying East Asia, locauso I
ioalizod that, although East Asiaoxcopt loi Japan, cloailywas pait ol
tho South, it had sono poculiaiitios that onallod it to gonoiato a kind ol
dovolopnont that did not quito ht within that pattoin ol stallo inoqual-
ity anong iogions. At tho sano tino, no ono ovoi clainodI coitainly
did notthat stalility in tho glolal distiilution ol incono also noant
innolility ol paiticulai countiios oi iogions. A laiily stallo stiuctuio
ol inoqualitios can poisist, with sono countiios going up and othois
down. And this, to sono oxtont, is what has loon happoning. Fion tho
8os and os, in paiticulai, tho noio inpoitant dovolopnont has
loon tho liluication ol a highly dynanic and upwaidly nolilo East Asia
tvvicii: ;
and a stagnant and downwaidly nolilo Aliica, and paiticulaily southoin
Aliica'tho Aliica ol tho laloui iosoivos`, again. This liluication is tho
thing that intoiosts no nost: why southoin Aliica and East Asia havo
novod in such opposito diioctions. It`s a voiy inpoitant phonononon to
tiy to undoistand, locauso to do so would also nodily oui undoistand-
ing ol tho undoipinnings ol succosslul capitalist dovolopnont, and tho
oxtont to which it iolios oi not on dispossossiontho conploto piolo-
taiianization ol tho poasantiyas happonod in southoin Aliica, oi on
tho voiy paitial piolotaiianization that has takon placo in East Asia. So
tho divoigonco ol thoso two iogions liings up a lig thooiotical quostion,
which onco again challongos Bionnoi`s idontihcation ol capitalist dovol-
opnont with tho lull piolotaiianization ol tho laloui loico.
Chaos and Govoinanco urgucd cur|y cn, in r, tnut Ancricun ncgcn-
cny wcu|d dcc|inc principu||y tnrcugn tnc risc cj Eust Asiu, und ubcvc u||
cj Cninu. At tnc sunc tinc it ruiscd tnc prcspcct tnut tnis wcu|d u|sc bc tnc
rcgicn wncrc |ubcur nignt in juturc pcsc tnc snurpcst cnu||cngc tc cupitu|,
wcr|dwidc. !t nus scnctincs bccn suggcstcd tnut tncrcs u tcnsicn bctwccn
tncsc pcrspcctivcstnc risc cj Cninu us u rivu| pcwcr ccntrc tc tnc Unitcd
Stutcs, und ncunting unrcst uncng tnc |ubcuring c|usscs in Cninu. !cw dc
ycu scc tnc rc|uticnsnip bctwccn tnc twc?
Tho iolationship is voiy closo, locauso, hist ol all, contiaiy to what nany
pooplo think, tho Chinoso poasants and woikois havo a nillonnial tiadi-
tion ol uniost that has no paiallol anywhoio olso in tho woild. In lact,
nany ol tho dynastic tiansitions woio diivon ly iolollions, stiikos and
dononstiationsnot just ol woikois and poasants, lut also shopkoop-
ois. This is a tiadition that continuos down to tho piosont. Whon Hu
Jintao told Bush, a low yoais ago, 'Don`t woiiy alout China tiying to
challongo 0s doninanco, wo havo too nany piooccupations at hono`,
ho was pointing to ono ol tho chiol chaiactoiistics ol Chinoso histoiy:
how to countoi tho conlination ol intoinal iolollions ly tho suloidi-
nato classos, and oxtoinal invasions ly so-callod lailaiianslion tho
Stoppos, up to tho ninotoonth contuiy, and thon, sinco tho Opiun Wais,
lion tho soa. Thoso havo always loon tho ovoiwholning concoins ol
Chinoso govoinnonts, and thoy sot naiiow linits on China`s iolo in
intoinational iolations. Tho lato-oightoonth and ninotoonth-contuiy
inpoiial Chinoso stato was lasically a kind ol pio-nodoin wollaio
stato. Thoso chaiactoiistics woio iopioducod thioughout its sulsoquont
ovolution. Duiing tho os, Jiang Zonin lot tho capitalist gonio out
8o iv 6
ol tho lottlo. Cuiiont attonpts to put it lack again havo to lo sot in
tho contoxt ol this nuch longoi tiadition. Il iolollions ol tho Chinoso
suloidinato classos natoiializo in a now loin ol wollaio stato, thon that
will inuonco tho pattoin ol intoinational iolations ovoi tho noxt twonty,
thiity yoais. But tho lalanco ol loicos lotwoon tho classos in China is still
up loi gials at tho nonont.
Is thoio a contiadiction lotwoon loing a najoi contio ol social uniost
and loing a iising powoi? Not nocossaiilytho Unitod Statos in tho
os was in tho vanguaid ol woikoi stiugglos, at tho sano tino that
it was onoiging as hogononic. Tho lact that thoso stiugglos woio suc-
cosslul, in tho nidst ol tho Gioat Dopiossion, was a signihcant lactoi in
naking tho 0s socially hogononic loi tho woiking classos as woll. This
was coitainly tho caso in Italy, whoio tho Anoiican oxpoiionco locano
tho nodol loi sono ol tho Catholic tiado unions.
Rcccnt stutcncnts jrcn Cninu suggcst u grcut dcu| cj wcrry ubcut tnc |cvc|s
cj uncnp|cyncnt tnut nuy rcsu|t jrcn u g|cbu| rcccssicn, witn un urruy cj
ncusurcs tc ccuntcruct it. But dccs tnis u|sc cntui| tnc ccntinuuticn cj tnc
dcvc|cpncnt ncdc| in wuys tnut nuy, in tnc cnd, cnu||cngc tnc rcst cj g|cbu|
cupitu|isn?
Tho quostion is whothoi tho noasuios that Chinoso iulois tako, in
iosponso to tho suloidinato gioups` stiugglos, can woik in othoi placos
whoio tho sano conditions do not oxist. Tho issuo ol whothoi China can
locono a nodol loi othoi statospaiticulaily othoi lig Southoin statos,
liko Indiais dopondont on a lot ol histoiical and googiaphical spocihci-
tios that nay not lo iopioducillo olsowhoio. Tho Chinoso know this, and
thoy do not actually sot thonsolvos up as a nodol to lo initatod. So what
happons in China will lo ciucial in toins ol tho iolationship lotwoon tho
vc and tho iost ol tho woild, lut not in toins ol sotting up a nodol loi
othois to lollow. Novoitholoss thoio is an intoiponotiation ol stiugglos
thoiool woikoi and poasant stiugglos against oxploitation, lut also ol
stiugglos against onviionnontal piollons and ocological dostiuction
that you don`t hnd to tho sano oxtont olsowhoio. Thoso stiugglos aio
oscalating at tho nonont, and it will lo inpoitant to soo how tho loadoi-
ship iosponds. I think that tho chango in loadoiship to Hu Jintao and
Won Jialao is iolatod to noivousnoss, at tho loast, alout alandoning a
long-standing wollaio tiadition. So, wo`ll havo to nonitoi tho situation
and watch loi possillo outconos.
tvvicii: 8
Tc rcturn tc tnc qucsticn cj cupitu|ist criscs. Ycur r,. cssuy, Tcwurds u Tnccry
cj Cupitu|ist Crisis, turns cn u ccnpuriscn bctwccn tnc |cng dcwnturn cj
r6,r66 und tnc prcdicticn, wnicn prcvcd ccnp|ctc|y uccurutc, cj unctncr
sucn crisis, wnicn nistcricu||y sturtcd in r,. Ycuvc rcturncd tc tnis puru||c|
scvcru| tincs sincc, pcinting cut tnc sini|uritics but u|sc tnc inpcrtunt dijjcr-
cnccs bctwccn tnc twc. But ycuvc writtcn |css ubcut tnc crisis cj r. cnwurds.
Dc ycu rcgurd tnc Crcut Dcprcssicn us ccntinuing tc bc cj |css rc|cvuncc?
Woll, not ol loss iolovanco, locauso in lact it is tho nost soiious ciisis
that histoiical capitalisn has oxpoiioncod, coitainly, it was a docisivo
tuining point. But it also oducatod tho powois-that-lo in toins ol what
thoy should do so as not to iopoat that oxpoiionco. Thoio aio a vaiioty
ol iocognizod and loss iocognizod instiunonts loi piovonting that typo
ol lioakdown lion happoning again. Evon now, though tho collapso in
tho stock oxchango is loing conpaiod to tho os, I thinkI nay lo
wiongthat loth tho nonotaiy authoiitios and tho govoinnonts ol tho
statos that actually nattoi in this aio going to do all thoy can to avoid
tho collapso in tho hnancial naikots having sinilai social ollocts to
tho os. Thoy just cannot alloid it, politically. And so thoy will nud-
dlo thiough, do anything thoy havo to. Evon Bushand loloio hin
Roaganloi all thoii lioo-naikot idoology, ioliod on an oxtiono kind
ol Koynosian dohcit sponding. Thoii idoology is ono thing, what thoy
actually do is anothoi, locauso thoy aio iosponding to political situations
which thoy cannot allow to dotoiioiato too nuch. Tho hnancial aspocts
nay lo sinilai to tho os, lut thoio is a gioatoi awaionoss and tightoi
constiaints on tho political authoiitios not to lot thoso piocossos alloct
tho so-callod ioal oconony to tho sano oxtont that thoy did in tho os.
I`n not saying that tho Gioat Dopiossion is loss iolovant, lut I`n not
convincod that it is going to lo iopoatod in tho noai lutuio. Tho situation
ol tho woild oconony is iadically dilloiont. In tho os it was highly
sognontod, and that nay havo loon a lactoi in pioducing tho conditions
loi thoso lioakdowns. Now it`s lai noio intogiatod.
!n Tcwurds u Tnccry cj Cupitu|ist Crisis ycu dcscribc u dccp structuru|
ccnjict witnin cupitu|isn, in wnicn ycu dijjcrcntiutc bctwccn criscs tnut urc
cuuscd by tcc nign u rutc cj cp|cituticn, wnicn |cud tc u rcu|izuticn crisis
bccuusc cj insujjcicnt cjjcctivc dcnund, und tncsc cuuscd by tcc |cw u rutc cj
cp|cituticn, wnicn cuts intc dcnund jcr ncuns cj prcducticn. Ncw, dc ycu
sti|| nc|d tc tnis gcncru| distincticn, und ij sc wcu|d ycu suy tnut wc urc ncw in
un undcr|ying rcu|izuticn crisis, nuskcd by cpunding pcrscnu| indcbtcdncss
8z iv 6
und jnunciu|izuticn, duc tc tnc wugc rcprcssicns tnut nuvc cnuructcrizcd
cupitu|isn cvcr tnc |ust tnirty ycurs?
Yos. I think that ovoi tho last thiity yoais thoio has loon a chango in tho
natuio ol tho ciisis. Up to tho oaily 8os, tho ciisis was typically ono ol
lalling iato ol piohts duo to intonsilying conpotition anong capitalist
agoncios, and duo to ciicunstancos in which laloui was nuch lottoi
oquippod to piotoct itsoll than in tho piovious dopiossionsloth in
tho lato-ninotoonth contuiy and in tho os. So that was tho situation
thiough tho ;os. Tho RoaganThatchoi nonotaiy countoi-iovolution
was actually ainod at undoinining this powoi, this capacity ol tho woik-
ing classos to piotoct thonsolvosit was not tho only oljoctivo, lut it
was ono ol tho nain oljoctivos. I think that you quoto sono advisoi ol
Thatchoi, saying that what thoy did was . . .
. . . tc crcutc un industriu| rcscrvc urny, cuct|y . . .
. . . what Maix says thoy should do! That changod tho natuio ol tho ciisis.
In tho 8os and os and now, in tho zooos, wo aio indood lacing
an undoilying ovoipioduction ciisis, with all its typical chaiactoiistics.
Inconos havo loon iodistiilutod in lavoui ol gioups and classos that havo
high liquidity and spoculativo dispositions, so inconos don`t go lack into
ciiculation in tho loin ol olloctivo donand, lut thoy go into spoculation,
cioating lulllos that luist iogulaily. So, yos, tho ciisis has loon tians-
loinod lion ono ol lalling iato ol pioht, duo to intonsihod conpotition
anong capitals, to ono ol ovoipioduction duo to a systonic shoitago ol
olloctivo donand, cioatod ly tho tondoncios ol capitalist dovolopnont.
A rcccnt rcpcrt cj tnc Nuticnu| !ntc||igcncc Ccunci| prcdictcd tnc cnd cj
g|cbu| dcninuncc by .c., und tnc cncrgcncc cj u ncrc jrugncntcd, nu|ti-
pc|ur, und pctcntiu||y ccnjictuu| wcr|d. Dc ycu tnink tnut cupitu|isn us u
wcr|d systcn rcquircs, us u ccnditicn cj pcssibi|ity, u sing|c ncgcncnic pcwcr?
!s tnc ubscncc cj cnc ncccssuri|y cquivu|cnt tc unstub|c systcnic cnucsis u
bu|uncc cj pcwcr bctwccn rcugn|y ccnpurub|c nujcr stutcs inpcssib|c?
No, I wouldn`t say that it`s inpossillo. A lot doponds on whothoi tho
incunlont hogononic powoi accopts acconnodation oi not. Tho
chaos ol tho last six, sovon yoais is duo to tho iosponso ol tho Bush
Adninistiation to ], which has in sono iospocts loon a caso ol
gioat-powoi suicido. What tho doclining powoi doos is voiy inpoitant,
tvvicii: 8
locauso thoy havo tho alility to cioato chaos. Tho wholo 'Piojoct loi a
Now Anoiican Contuiy` was a iolusal to accopt doclino. That has loon a
catastiopho. Thoio has loon tho nilitaiy dolaclo in Iiaq and tho iolatod
hnancial stiain on tho 0s position in tho woild oconony, tiansloining
tho Unitod Statos lion a cioditoi nation into tho liggost doltoi nation in
woild histoiy. As a doloat, Iiaq is woiso than Viotnan, locauso in Indo-
China thoio was a long tiadition ol guoiiilla wailaio: thoy had a loadoi
ol tho calilio ol Ho Chi Minh, thoy had alioady doloatod tho Fionch.
Tho tiagody loi tho Anoiicans in Iiaq is that, ovon in tho lost possillo
ciicunstancos, thoy havo a haid tino winning tho wai, and now thoy
aio just tiying to got out with sono laco-saving dovico. Thoii iosistanco
to acconnodation has lod, hist, to an accoloiation ol thoii doclino, and
socond, to a lot ol sulloiing and chaos. Iiaq is a disastoi. Tho sizo ol tho
displacod population thoio is lai liggoi than in Dailui.
It is not cloai what Olana actually wants to do. Il ho thinks that ho can
iovoiso tho doclino, ho`s going to havo sono voiy nasty suipiisos. What
ho can do is to nanago tho doclino intolligontlyin othoi woids, chango
tho policy lion: 'Wo aio not acconnodating. Wo want anothoi contuiy`,
to ono ol dc juctc nanaging doclino, dovising policios that acconno-
dato tho chango in powoi iolationships. I don`t know whothoi ho`s going
to do so locauso ho`s voiy anliguous, whothoi locauso in politics you
cannot say coitain things, oi locauso ho doosn`t know what to do, oi
locauso ho just is anliguousI don`t know. But tho chango lion Bush
to Olana doos opon up tho possilility ol nanaging and acconnodat-
ing tho doclino ol tho Unitod Statos in a non-catastiophic way. Bush has
had tho opposito olloct: tho ciodilility ol tho Anoiican nilitaiy has loon
luithoi undoininod, tho hnancial position has locono ovon noio dis-
astious. So now tho task lacing Olana, I think, is nanaging doclino
intolligontly. That`s what ho can do. But his idoa ol oscalating 0s intoi-
vontion in Alghanistan is woiiying, to say tho loast.
Ovcr tnc ycurs, wni|c u|wuys busing ycur wcrk cn Murs ccnccpticn cj
cupitu| uccunu|uticn, ycuvc ncvcr ncsitutcd tc cprcss u nunbcr cj |cuding
criticisns cj Murnis undcrcstinuticn cj pcwcr strugg|cs bctwccn stutcs, nis
indijjcrcncc tc spucc, tnc ccntrudicticns in nis ucccunt cj tnc wcrking c|uss,
uncng ctncrs. Fcr u |cng tinc ycuvc u|sc bccn juscinutcd by Adun Snitn,
wnc p|uys u ccntru| rc|c in ycur |utcst wcrk, Adan Snith in Boijing. Wnut
wcu|d bc ycur ccnpurub|c rcscrvuticns ubcut nin?
8q iv 6
Tho conpaiallo iosoivations alout Snith aio tho sano as Maix`s ios-
oivations alout hin. Maix took a lot lion Sniththo tondoncy ol tho
iato ol pioht to lall undoi tho inpact ol intoi-capitalist conpotition, loi
oxanplo, is a Snithian idoa. Cupitu| is a ciitiquo ol political oconony:
Maix was ciiticizing Snith loi nissing what was going on in tho hiddon
alodos ol pioduction, as ho put itintoi-capitalist conpotition night
diivo down tho iato ol pioht, lut it was countoiod ly tho tondoncy and
alility ol capitalists to shilt tho iolationships ol powoi with tho woiking
class in thoii lavoui. Fion this point ol viow, Maix`s ciitiquo ol Snith`s
political oconony was naking a ciucial point. Howovoi, ono also has
to look at tho histoiical ovidonco, locauso Maix`s was a thooiotical con-
stiuct, with assunptions that nay not coiiospond to tho histoiical ioality
ol paiticulai poiiods oi placos. Wo cannot inloi onpiiical ioalitios lion
a thooiotical constiuct. Tho validity ol his ciitiquo ol Snith has to lo
assossod on tho lasis ol tho histoiical iocoid, that applios to Snith as
nuch as it applios to Maix, oi anylody olso.
Onc cj Murs ccnc|usicns in Capital, purticu|ur|y Voluno Ono, is tnut udcp-
ticn cj u Snitniun jrcc-nurkct systcn wi|| |cud tc incrcuscs in c|uss incquu|ity.
Tc wnut dcgrcc dccs tnc intrcducticn cj u Snitniun rcginc in Bcijing curry tnc
risk cj cvcn grcutcr c|uss incquu|itics in Cninu?
My aigunont in tho thooiotical chaptoi on Snith, in Adun Snitn in
Bcijing, is that thoio is no notion in his woik ol soll-iogulating nai-
kots as in tho nooliloial ciood. Tho invisillo hand is that ol tho stato,
which should iulo in a docontializod way, with nininal luioauciatic
intoiloionco. Sulstantivoly, tho action ol tho govoinnont in Snith is
pio-laloui, not pio-capital. Ho is quito oxplicit that ho is not in lavoui
ol naking woikois conpoto to ioduco wagos, lut ol naking capitalists
conpoto, to ioduco piohts to a nininun accoptallo iowaid loi thoii
iisks. Cuiiont concoptions tuin hin conplotoly upsido-down. But it`s
uncloai whoio China is hoadod today. In tho Jiang Zonin oia, in tho
os, it was coitainly hoadod in tho diioction ol naking woikois con-
poto loi tho lonoht ol capital and pioht, thoio is no quostion alout that.
Now thoio is a iovoisal, ono which as I`vo said takos into account not
only tho tiadition ol tho Rovolution and tho Mao poiiod, lut also ol tho
wollaio aspocts ol lato-inpoiial China undoi tho Qing in tho oightoonth
and oaily ninotoonth contuiios. I`n not putting lots on any paiticulai
outcono in China, lut wo nust havo an opon nind in toins ol sooing
whoio it`s going.
tvvicii: 8
!n Adan Snith in Boijing, ycu u|sc druw cn Suginuru Kucrus wcrk in ccn-
trusting un industricus rcvc|uticn, buscd cn intcnsivc |ubcur und nusbunding
cj nuturc, in cur|y ncdcrn Eust Asiu, und un industriu| rcvc|uticn, buscd cn
nccnunizuticn und prcduticn cj nuturu| rcscurccs, und spcuk cj tnc ncpc tnut
tncrc ccu|d bc u ccnvcrgcncc cj tnc twc jcr nununity in tnc juturc. !cw wcu|d
ycu cstinutc tnc bu|uncc bctwccn tncn in Eust Asiu tcduy?
Voiy piocaiious. I an not as optinistic as Sugihaia in thinking that tho
East Asian tiadition ol 'industiious iovolution` is so woll ontionchod that
it nay, il not locono doninant again, at loast play an inpoitant iolo in
whatovoi hyliid loination is going to onoigo. Thoso concopts aio noio
inpoitant loi nonitoiing what`s happoning than saying, East Asia is
going this way, oi tho Unitod Statos is going tho othoi way. Wo nood to
soo what thoy actually do. Thoio is ovidonco that tho Chinoso authoiitios
aio woiiiod alout tho onviionnont, as woll as alout social uniostlut
thon thoy do things that aio plain stupid. Maylo thoio is a plan in tho
woiks, lut I don`t soo nuch awaionoss ol tho ocological disastois ol cai
civilizations. Tho idoa ol copying tho Unitod Statos lion this point ol
viow was alioady ciazy in Euiopoit`s ovon ciazioi in China. And I`vo
always told tho Chinoso that in tho os and zooos, thoy wont to look
at tho wiong city. Il thoy want to soo how to lo woalthy without loing
ocologically dostiuctivo, thoy should go to Anstoidan iathoi than Los
Angolos. In Anstoidan, ovoiylody goos aiound on licyclos, thoio aio
thousands ol likos paikod at tho station ovoinight, locauso pooplo cono
in ly tiain, pick up thoii licyclos in tho noining and loavo thon thoio
again in tho ovoning. Whoioas in China, whilo thoio woio no cais at all
tho hist tino I was thoio in ;oonly a low lusos in a soa ol licyclos
now, noio and noio, tho licyclos havo loon ciowdod out. Fion that
point ol viow it`s a voiy nixod pictuio, voiy woiiying and contiadictoiy.
Tho idoology ol nodoinization is discioditod olsowhoio lut so lai is liv-
ing on, iathoi naivoly, in China.
But tnc inp|icuticn cj Adan Snith in Boijing sccns tc bc tnut wc nignt nccd
scnctning cj un industricus rcvc|uticn in tnc Wcst, und tnut tncrcjcrc tnis is u
cutcgcry tnuts nct spccijc tc Cninu, but cun uctuu||y bc nucn brcudcr?
Yos. But Sugihaia`s lasic point is that tho typical dovolopnont ol tho
industiial iovolution, tho sulstitution ol nachinoiy and onoigy loi laloui,
not only has ocological linits, as wo know, lut it has ocononic linits as
woll. In lact, Maixists olton loigot that Maix`s idoa ol tho incioasingly
8o iv 6
oiganic conposition ol capital, diiving down tho iato ol pioht, has to
do sulstantivoly with tho lact that tho uso ol noio nachinos and onoigy
intonsihos conpotition anong capitalists in such a way that it loconos
loss piohtallo, losidos loing ocologically dostiuctivo. Sugihaia`s point
is that tho sopaiation ol nanagonont and laloui, tho giowing doni-
nanco ol nanagonont ovoi laloui, and tho lact that laloui is dopiivod
ol its skills, including thoso ol soll-nanagonont, which is typical ol tho
industiial iovolution, has linits. In tho industiious iovolution thoio is a
nolilization ol all tho housohold`s iosouicos, which dovolops, oi at loast
piosoivos, nanagoiial skills anong tho lalouiois. Evontually tho advan-
tagos ol thoso soll-nanagonont skills locono noio inpoitant than tho
advantagos doiivod lion tho sopaiation ol concoption and oxocution that
was typical ol tho industiial iovolution. I think ho has a point, in tho
sonso that this is piotty ciucial to undoistanding tho piosont Chinoso
iiso, that having piosoivod thoso soll-nanagonont skills thiough soiious
linitations on tho piocossos ol piolotaiianization in a sulstantivo sonso,
China now can havo an oiganization ol tho laloui piocoss that is noio
ioliant on tho soll-nanagonont skills ol laloui than olsowhoio. This is
piolally ono ol tho nain souicos ol tho conpotitivo advantago ol China,
undoi tho now ciicunstancos.
Wnicn wcu|d tukc us buck tc tnc pc|itics cj tnc Crunsci Crcup, in tcrns cj tnc
|ubcur prcccss und autononia?
Yos and no. Thoy aio two dilloiont loins ol autonony. What wo aio
talking alout now is nanagoiial autonony, whoioas tho othoi was
autonony in stiugglo, in tho woikois` antagonisn towaids capital.
Thoio, tho idoa ol autonony was: how do wo loinulato oui piogianno
in such a way that wo unito woikois in tho stiugglo against capital, iathoi
than divido laloui and cioato tho conditions loi capital to io-ostallish
its authoiity on tho woikois in tho woikplaco? Tho piosont situation is
anliguous. Many look at Chinoso soll-nanagonont skills and soo thon
as a way ol suloidinating laloui to capitalin othoi woids, capital savos
on nanagoiial costs. Ono has to put thoso soll-nanagonont skills in
contoxtwhoio, whon, and loi what puiposo. It is not that oasy to clas-
sily it in ono way oi anothoi.
Ycu cndcd Wcr|d !nccnc !ncquu|itics in rr by urguing tnut, ujtcr tnc
cc||upsc cj tnc , dccpcning und widcning ccnjicts cvcr scurcc rcscurccs
witnin tnc Scutntnc !ruq!run Wur cr tnc Cu|j Wur cun bc tukcn us
tvvicii: 8;
cnb|cnuticwcrc jcrcing tnc Wcst tc crcutc cnbrycnic structurcs cj wcr|d
gcvcrnncnt tc rcgu|utc tncsc. tnc C, us un cccutivc ccnnittcc cj tnc g|cbu|
bcurgccisic, tnc und Wcr|d Bunk us its Ministry cj Finuncc, tnc Sccurity
Ccunci| us its Ministry cj Dcjcncc. Tncsc structurcs, ycu suggcstcd, nignt jj-
tccn ycurs ncncc bc tukcn cvcr by ncn-ccnscrvutivc jcrccs. !n Adan Snith in
Boijing ycu spcuk rutncr cj u wcr|d-nurkct sccicty us u pctcntiu||y ncpcju|
juturc, in wnicn nc pcwcr is uny |cngcr u ncgcncn. Wnut is tnc rc|uticnsnip
bctwccn tnc twc, und ycur ccnccpticns cj tncn?
Fiist, I didn`t actually say that tho stiuctuios ol woild govoinnont
onoigod locauso ol tho conicts within tho South. Most ol thon woio
Biotton Woods oiganizations, sot up ly tho Unitod Statos altoi tho
Socond Woild Wai as nochanisns that woio nocossaiy to avoid tho
pitlalls ol soll-iogulating naikots in tho glolal oconony, and as instiu-
nonts ol govoinanco. So, lion tho stait ol tho post-wai oia thoio woio
onliyonic stiuctuios ol woild govoinnont in placo. What happonod in
tho 8os was an incioasing tuilulonco and instalility, ol which thoso
conicts in tho South woio an aspoct, and thoioloio thoso institutions
woio liought in to nanago tho woild oconony in a dilloiont way than
loloio. Could thoy lo takon ovoi ly non-consoivativo loicos? My atti-
tudo to thoso institutions was always anlivalont, locauso in nany ways
thoy iooct a lalanco ol powoi anong tho statos ol tho Noith and tho
Southwithin tho Noith, lotwoon Noith and South, and so on. Thoio
was nothing in piinciplo that iulod out tho possilility that thoso institu-
tions could actually lo put to woik to iogulato tho glolal oconony in
ways that night pionoto a noio oqual distiilution ol inconos woild-
wido. Howovoi, what happonod is oxactly tho opposito. In tho 8os,
tho & and tho Woild Bank locano tho instiunonts ol tho nooliloial
countoi-iovolution, and thoioloio pionotod a noio unoqual distiilution
ol incono. But ovon thon, as I`vo said, what happonod in tho ond was
not so nuch a noio unoqual distiilution lotwoon Noith and South,
lut a lig liluication within tho South itsoll, with East Asia doing voiy
woll and southoin Aliica doing voiy ladly, and othoi iogions sonowhoio
in tho niddlo.
How doos that iolato to tho woild-naikot socioty concopt that I discuss in
Adun Snitn in Bcijing? It is now cloai that a woild stato, ovon ol tho nost
onliyonic, conlodoial typo, would lo voiy dilhcult to liing alout. It is
not a soiious possilility in tho noai lutuio. Thoio is going to lo a woild-
naikot socioty, in tho sonso that countiios will lo iolating to ono anothoi
88 iv 6
thiough naikot nochanisns which aio not at all soll-iogulating, lut
aio iogulatod. This was also tiuo ol tho syston dovolopod ly tho Unitod
Statos, which was a highly iogulatod piocoss whoioly tho olinination ol
taiills, quotas and iostiictions on laloui nolility was always nogotiatod
ly statosnost inpoitantly ly tho Unitod Statos and Euiopo, and thon
lotwoon thoso and tho othois. Tho quostion now is what iogulation is
going to lo intioducod to piovont a os-stylo lioakdown ol tho naikot.
So tho iolationship lotwoon tho two concopts is that tho oiganization ol
tho woild oconony will lo piinaiily naikot-lasod, lut with an inpoi-
tant paiticipation ol statos in tho iogulation ol this oconony.
!n Tho Long Twontioth Contuiy, ycu skctcncd tnrcc pcssib|c cutccncs cj tnc
systcnic cnucs intc wnicn tnc |cng wuvc cj jnunciu|izuticn tnut sturtcd in
tnc cur|y r,cs wus |cuding. u wcr|d cnpirc ccntrc||cd by tnc Unitcd Stutcs,
u wcr|d-nurkct sccicty in wnicn nc stutcs dcninutcd ctncrs, cr u ncw wcr|d
wur tnut wcu|d dcstrcy nununity. !n u|| tnrcc cvcntuu|itics, cupitu|isn, us
it nus nistcricu||y dcvc|cpcd, wcu|d nuvc disuppcurcd. !n Adan Snith in
Boijing, ycu ccnc|udc tnut, witn tnc jui|urcs cj tnc Busn Adninistruticn, tnc
jrst cun ncw bc ru|cd cut, |cuving just tnc |ust twc. But isnt tncrc, |cgicu||y ut
|cust, cnc pcssibi|ity witnin ycur cwn jruncwcrktnut Cninu ccu|d cncrgc
cvcr tinc us u ncw ncgcncn, rcp|ucing tnc Unitcd Stutcs, witncut u|tcring
tnc structurcs cj cupitu|isn und tcrritcriu|isn us ycu dcscribc tncn? Dc ycu
cc|udc tnis pcssibi|ity?
I don`t oxcludo that possilility, lut lot`s login ly putting tho iocoid
stiaight alout what I actually say. Tho hist ol tho thioo sconaiios that I
onvisagod at tho ond ol Tnc Lcng Twcntictn Ccntury was a woild onpiio
contiollod not only ly tho Unitod Statos, lut ly tho Unitod Statos in
coopoiation with its Euiopoan allios. I novoi thought that tho 0s would
lo so iockloss as to tiy to go it alono loi a Now Anoiican Contuiythat
was just too ciazy a piojoct to contonplato, and, ol couiso, it lackhiod
innodiatoly. In lact, thoio is a stiong cuiiont within tho 0s loioign-policy
ostallishnont that wants to patch up tho iolationship with Euiopo, which
was stiainod ly tho unilatoialisn ol tho Bush Adninistiation. That`s still
a possilility, although it`s now loss likoly than it usod to lo. Tho socond
point is that tho woild-naikot socioty and tho gioatoi woight ol China in
tho glolal oconony aio not nutually oxclusivo. Il you look at tho way in
which China has lohavod towaids its noighlouis histoiically, thoio has
always loon a iolationship lasod noio on tiado and ocononic oxchangos
than on nilitaiy powoi, this is still tho caso. Pooplo olton nisundoistand
tvvicii: 8
this: thoy think I an dopicting tho Chinoso as loing soltoi oi lottoi than
tho Wost, it`s nothing to do with that. It has to do with tho piollons ol
govoinanco ol a countiy liko China, which wo`vo discussod. China has a
tiadition ol iolollions that no othoi toiiitoiy ol sinilai sizo and donsity
ol population has lacod. Its iulois aio also highly conscious ol tho pos-
silility ol now invadois lion tho soain othoi woids, tho 0s. As I point
out in Chaptoi Ton ol Adun Snitn in Bcijing, thoio aio vaiious Anoiican
plans loi how to doal with China, nono ol which aio oxactly ioassuiing
loi Boijing. Apait lion tho Kissingoi plan, which is ono ol cooptation,
tho othois onvisago oithoi a now Cold Wai diioctod against China oi
gotting China involvod in wais with its noighlouis, whilo tho 0s plays
tho iolo ol 'happy thiid`. Il China doos onoigo, as I think it will, as a now
contio ol tho glolal oconony, its iolo will lo iadically dilloiont lion that
ol piovious hogonons. Not just locauso ol cultuial contiasts, iootod as
thoso aio in histoiicalgoogiaphical dilloioncos, lut piocisoly locauso
tho dilloiont histoiy and googiaphy ol tho East Asian iogion will havo an
inpact on tho now stiuctuios ol tho glolal oconony. Il China is going
to lo hogononic, it`s going to lo hogononic in voiy dilloiont ways to
tho othois. Foi ono thing, nilitaiy powoi will lo lai loss inpoitant than
cultuial and ocononic powoipaiticulaily ocononic powoi. Thoy havo
to play tho ocononic caid lai noio than tho 0s ovoi did, oi tho Biitish,
oi tho Dutch.
Dc ycu jcrcscc grcutcr unity witnin Eust Asiu? Tncrc is tu|k, jcr cunp|c, cj
u scrt cj Asiun juci|ity, unijcuticn cj currcncydc ycu scc Cninu us tnc
ccntrc cj un Eust Asiun ncgcncn, rutncr tnun u sc|c p|uycr? And ij sc, ncw
dccs tnut jt witn tnc rising nuticnu|isns in Scutn Kcrcu, ]upun und Cninu?
What is nost intoiosting alout East Asia is how, in tho ond, tho oconony
is dotoininant ol statos` dispositions and policios towaids ono anothoi,
in spito ol thoii nationalisns. Tho nationalisns aio voiy woll ontionchod,
lut thoy aio iolatod to a histoiical lact olton loigotton in tho Wost: that
Koioa, China, Japan, Thailand, Canlodia, all ol thoso woio national
statos long loloio thoio was a singlo nation-stato in Euiopo. Thoy all
havo histoiios ol nationalist ioactions to ono anothoi, in a lianowoik
that was piodoninantly ocononic. Occasionally thoio woio wais, and
tho attitudo ol tho Viotnanoso towaids China, oi tho Koioans towaids
Japan, is dooply iootod in tho nonoiy ol thoso wais. At tho sano tino,
tho oconony soons to iulo. It was stiiking that tho nationalist iosuigonco
in Japan, undoi tho Koizuni govoinnont, was suddonly chockod whon
o iv 6
it locano cloai that Japanoso lusinoss was intoiostod in doing lusinoss
with China. In China, too, thoio was a lig wavo ol anti-Japanoso donon-
stiations, lut thon thoy stoppod. Tho gonoial pictuio in East Asia is that
thoio aio doop nationalist dispositions, lut at tho sano tino thoy tond to
lo supoisodod ly ocononic intoiosts.
Tnc currcnt crisis cj tnc wcr|d jnunciu| systcn |ccks |ikc tnc ncst spcctucu|ur
vindicuticn cj ycur |cng-stunding tnccrcticu| prcdicticns tnut unycnc ccu|d
inuginc. Arc tncrc uny uspccts cj tnc crisis tnut nuvc surpriscd ycu?
My piodiction was voiy sinplo. Tho iocuiiont tondoncy towaids hnan-
cialization was, as Biaudol put it, a sign ol tho autunn ol a paiticulai
natoiial oxpansion, contiing on a paiticulai stato. In Tnc Lcng Twcntictn
Ccntury, I callod tho onsot ol hnancialization tho signal ciisis ol a iogino
ol accunulation, and pointod out that ovoi tinousually it was aiound
hall a contuiytho toininal ciisis would lollow. Foi piovious hogonons,
it was possillo to idontily loth tho signal ciisis and thon tho toininal cii-
sis. Foi tho Unitod Statos, I vontuiod tho hypothosis that tho ;os was
tho signal ciisis, tho toininal ciisis had not yot conolut it would. How
would it cono? Tho lasic hypothosis is that all thoso hnancial oxpan-
sions woio lundanontally unsustainallo, locauso thoy woio diawing
into spoculation noio capital than could actually lo nanagodin othoi
woids, thoio was a tondoncy loi thoso hnancial oxpansions to dovolop
lulllos ol vaiious kinds. I loiosaw that this hnancial oxpansion would
ovontually load to a toininal ciisis, locauso lulllos aio as unsustainallo
today as thoy havo loon in tho past. But I did not loiosoo tho dotails ol tho
lulllos: tho dot.con loon, oi tho housing lulllo.
Also, I was anliguous alout whoio wo woio in tho oaily os, whon I
wioto Tnc Lcng Twcntictn Ccntury. I thought that in sono ways tho Bollo
Epoquo ol tho Unitod Statos was alioady ovoi, whoioas it was actually only
loginning. Roagan piopaiod it ly piovoking a najoi iocossion, which
thon cioatod tho conditions loi tho sulsoquont hnancial oxpansion, lut
it was Clinton who actually ovoisaw tho Bollo Epoquo, which thon ondod
with tho hnancial collapso ol tho zooos, ospocially ol tho Nasdaq. With
tho luisting ol tho housing lulllo, what wo aio olsoiving now is, quito
cloaily, tho toininal ciisis ol 0s hnancial contiality and hogonony.
Wnut nurks ycur wcrk cjj jrcn u|ncst cvcrycnc c|sc in ycur jc|d is ycur upprc-
ciuticn jcr tnc jcibi|ity, uduptubi|ity und juidity cj cupitu|ist dcvc|cpncnt,
tvvicii:
witnin tnc jruncwcrk cj tnc intcr-stutc systcn. Yct in tnc longuo duio, sucn
us tnc cc, rc und c-ycur jruncwcrk ycu udcptcd jcr tnc cc||cctivc cuninu-
ticn cj Eust Asius pcsiticn in tnc intcr-stutc systcn, puttcrns cncrgc tnut urc
ustcnisning|y c|cur, u|ncst sturk in tncir dctcrninucy und sinp|icity.
!cw
wcu|d ycu cnuructcrizc tnc rc|uticnsnip bctwccn ccntingcncy und ncccssity in
ycur tninking?
Thoio aio two dilloiont quostions hoio: ono concoins an appiociation ol
tho oxilility ol capitalist dovolopnont and tho othoi is tho iocuiionco ol
pattoins, and tho oxtont to which thoso aio dotoininod ly contingoncy
oi nocossity. On tho hist, tho adaptalility ol capitalisn: this is paitly
iolatod to ny poisonal oxpoiionco in lusinoss, as a young nan. Initially
I tiiod to iun ny lathoi`s lusinoss, which was iolativoly snall, thon I
did a dissoitation on ny giandlathoi`s lusinoss, which was liggoia
nodiun-sizod conpany. Thon I quaiiollod with ny giandlathoi and
wont into Unilovoi, which in toins ol onployoos was tho socond-laigost
nultinational at tho tino. So I had tho lucklion tho point ol viow ol
analysing tho capitalist lusinoss ontoipiisool going into succossivoly
laigoi hins, which holpod no undoistand that you cannot talk alout
capitalist ontoipiisos in gonoial, locauso tho dilloioncos lotwoon ny
lathoi`s lusinoss, ny giandlathoi`s lusinoss and Unilovoi woio inciod-
illo. Foi oxanplo, ny lathoi spont all his tino going to visit custonois
in tho toxtilo distiicts, and studying tho tochnical piollons that thoy had
with thoii nachinos. Thon ho would go lack to tho lactoiy and discuss
tho piollons with his onginooi, thoy would custonizo tho nachino loi
tho cliont. Whon I tiiod to iun this lusinoss, I was totally lost, tho wholo
thing was lasod on skills and knowlodgo that woio pait ol ny lathoi`s
piactico and oxpoiionco. I could go aiound and soo tho custonois, lut I
couldn`t solvo thoii piollonsI couldn`t ovon ioally undoistand thon.
So it was hopoloss. In lact, in ny youth, whon I usod to say to ny lathoi,
'Il tho Connunists cono, you aio going to lo in tioullo`, ho said, 'No,
I`n not going to lo in tioullo, I`ll continuo to do what I`n doing. Thoy
nood pooplo who do this.`
Whon I closod ny lathoi`s lusinoss, and wont into ny giandlathoi`s,
it was alioady noio ol a Foidist oiganization. Thoy woio not studying
tho custonois` piollons, thoy woio pioducing standaidizod nachinos,
oithoi tho custonois wantod thon oi thoy didn`t. Thoii onginoois woio
Aiiighi, Takoshi Hanashita and Maik Soldon, ods, Tnc Rcsurgcncc cj Eust Asiu.
cc, rc und c Ycur Pcrspcctivcs, London zoo.
z iv 6
dosigning nachinos on tho lasis ol what thoy thought thoio would lo a
naikot loi, and tolling tho custonois: this is what wo havo. It was onliy-
onic nass pioduction, with onliyonic assonlly linos. Whon I wont to
Unilovoi, I laioly saw tho pioduction sido. Thoio woio nany dilloiont
lactoiiosono was naking naigaiino, anothoi soap, anothoi poilunos.
Thoio woio dozons ol dilloiont pioducts, lut tho nain sito ol activity
was noithoi tho naikoting oiganization noi tho placo ol pioduction, lut
hnanco and advoitising. So, that taught no that it`s voiy haid to idontily
ono spocihc loin as 'typically` capitalist. Latoi, studying Biaudol, I saw
that this idoa ol tho oninontly adaptallo natuio ol capitalisn was sono-
thing that you could olsoivo histoiically.
Ono ol tho najoi piollons on tho lolt, lut also on tho iight, is to think
that thoio is only ono kind ol capitalisn that iopioducos itsoll histoiically,
whoioas capitalisn has tiansloinod itsoll sulstantivolypaiticulaily
on a glolal lasisin unoxpoctod ways. Foi sovoial contuiios capitalisn
ioliod on slavoiy, and soonod so onloddod in slavoiy lion all points ol
viow that it could not suivivo without it, whoioas slavoiy was alolishod,
and capitalisn not only suivivod lut piospoiod noio than ovoi, now
dovoloping on tho lasis ol colonialisn and inpoiialisn. At this point it
soonod that colonialisn and inpoiialisn woio ossontial to capitalisn`s
opoiationlut again, altoi tho Socond Woild Wai, capitalisn nanagod
to discaid thon, and to suivivo and piospoi. Woild-histoiically, capital-
isn has loon continually tiansloining itsoll, and this is ono ol its nain
chaiactoiistics, it would lo voiy shoit-sightod to tiy to pin down what
capitalisn is without looking at thoso ciucial tiansloinations. What
ionains constant thiough all thoso adaptations, and dohnos tho ossonco
ol capitalisn, is lost captuiod ly Maix`s loinula ol capital MCM', to
which I ioloi iopoatodly in idontilying tho altoination ol natoiial and
hnancial oxpansions. Looking at piosont-day China, ono can say, naylo
it`s capitalisn, naylo notI think it`s still an opon quostion. But assun-
ing that it is capitalisn, it`s not tho sano as that ol piovious poiiods,
it`s thoioughly tiansloinod. Tho issuo is to idontily its spocihcitios,
how it dillois lion piovious capitalisns, whothoi wo call it capitalisn
oi sonothing olso.
And tnc scccnd purt cj tnc qucsticntnc cncrgcncc cj sucn distinct, longuo-
duio puttcrns in ycur wcrk, und tnc trunsjcrnuticns cj scu|c?
tvvicii:
Ono point is that thoio is a voiy cloai googiaphical dinonsion to tho
iocuiiont cyclos ol natoiial and hnancial oxpansion, lut you can soo this
aspoct only il you do not stay locusod on ono paiticulai countiylocauso
thon you soo a totally dilloiont piocoss. This is what nost histoiians havo
loon doingthoy locus on a paiticulai countiy, and tiaco dovolopnonts
thoio. Whoioas in Biaudol, tho idoa is piocisoly that tho accunulation ol
capital junps, and il you don`t junp with it, il you don`t lollow it lion
placo to placo, you don`t soo it. Il you stay locusod on England, oi on
Fianco, you niss what nattois nost in tho dovolopnont ol capitalisn
woild-histoiically. You havo to novo with it to undoistand that tho pioc-
oss ol capitalist dovolopnont is ossontially this piocoss ol junping lion
ono condition, whoio what you`vo toinod tho 'spatial hx` has locono
too constiaining, and conpotition is intonsilying, to anothoi ono, whoio
a now spatial hx ol gioatoi scalo and scopo onallos tho syston to oxpo-
iionco anothoi poiiod ol natoiial oxpansion. And thon ol couiso, at a
coitain point tho cyclo iopoats itsoll.
Whon I was hist loinulating this, inloiiing tho pattoins lion Biaudol
and Maix, I had not yot lully appiociatod youi concopt ol spatial hx, in tho
doullo sonso ol tho woidhxity ol invostod capital, and a hx jcr tho piovi-
ous contiadictions ol capitalist accunulation. Thoio is a luilt-in nocossity
to thoso pattoins that doiivos lion tho piocoss ol accunulation, which
nolilizos nonoy and othoi iosouicos on an incioasing scalo, which in
tuin cioatos piollons ol intonsilying conpotition and ovoi-accunulation
ol vaiious kinds. Tho piocoss ol capitalist accunulation ol capitalas
opposod to non-capitalist accunulation ol capitalhas this snowlall
olloct, which intonsihos conpotition and diivos down tho iato ol pioht.
Thoso who aio lost positionod to hnd a now spatial hx do so, oach tino in
a laigoi 'containoi`. Fion city-statos, which accunulatod a hugo anount
ol capital in tiny containois, to sovontoonth-contuiy Holland, which was
noio than a city-stato, lut loss than a national stato, thon to oightoonth-
and ninotoonth-contuiy Biitain, with its woild-onconpassing onpiio, and
thon to tho twontioth-contuiy, continont-sizod Unitod Statos.
Now tho piocoss cannot continuo in tho sano way, locauso thoio is no
now, laigoi containoi that can displaco tho Unitod Statos. Thoio aio laigo
nationalin lact, civilizationalstatos, liko China and India, which aio
not liggoi than tho Unitod Statos in toins ol spaco, lut havo loui oi
hvo tinos its population. So now wo aio switching to a now pattoin:
instoad ol going lion ono containoi to anothoi, spatially laigoi, ono, wo
q iv 6
aio going lion a containoi with a low population donsity to containois
with high population donsitios. Moioovoi, pioviously it was a switch
lion woalthy to woalthy, in toins ol countiios. Now wo aio going lion
voiy woalthy to what aio still lasically pooi countiiosChina`s poi capita
incono is still ono-twontioth that ol tho Unitod Statos. In ono sonso, you
can say, 'Okay, now hogonony, il that`s what is happoning, is shilting
lion tho iich to tho pooi.` But at tho sano tino, thoso countiios havo
hugo intoinal dilloioncos and inoqualitios. It`s all voiy nixod. Thoso aio
contiadictoiy tondoncios, and wo nood to dovolop additional concoptual
tools to undoistand thon.
Ycu cnd Adan Snith in Boijing witn tnc ncpc cj u ccnncnwcu|tn cj civi|i-
zuticns |iving cn cquu| tcrns witn cucn ctncr, in u snurcd rcspcct jcr tnc curtn
und its nuturu| rcscurccs. Wcu|d ycu usc tnc tcrn scciu|isn tc dcscribc tnis
visicn, cr dc ycu rcgurd it us cutdutcd?
Woll, I would havo no oljoctions to it loing callod socialisn, oxcopt that,
unloitunatoly, socialisn has loon too nuch idontihod with stato contiol
ol tho oconony. I novoi thought that was a good idoa. I cono lion a
countiy whoio tho stato is dospisod and in nany ways distiustod. Tho
idontihcation ol socialisn with tho stato cioatos lig piollons. So, il
this woild-syston was going to lo callod socialist, it would nood to lo
iodohnod in toins ol a nutual iospoct lotwoon hunans and a colloctivo
iospoct loi natuio. But this nay havo to lo oiganizod thiough stato-
iogulatod naikot oxchangos, so as to onpowoi laloui and disonpowoi
capital in Snithian lashion, iathoi than thiough stato ownoiship and
contiol ol tho noans ol pioduction. Tho piollon with tho toin social-
isn is that it`s loon alusod in nany dilloiont ways, and thoioloio also
discioditod. Il you ask no what would lo a lottoi toin, I`vo no idoaI
think wo should look loi ono. You aio voiy good at hnding now oxpios-
sions, so you should cono up with sono suggostions.
Okuy, !|| nuvc tc wcrk cn tnut cnc.
Yos, you havo to woik on a sulstituto loi tho toin 'socialist` that dison-
tanglos it lion tho histoiical idontihcation with tho stato, and liings it
closoi to tho idoa ol gioatoi oquality and nutual iospoct. So, I`ll loavo
that task to you!