NG DNG M HNH MIKE 11 TNH TON THY LC, CHT LNG

NC CHO LU VC SNG SI GN- NG NAI

Trn Hng Thi, Hong Th Thu Trang, Nguyn Vn Thao, L V Vit phong
Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng

1. t vn
Trong nhng nm gn y, cng vi s pht trin ca cng ngh thng tin cng
nh khoa hc k thut ni chung, cc m hnh ton ng dng cng ngy cng c pht
trin nhiu hn. Cc m hnh ton vi cc u im nh cho kt qu tnh ton nhanh, gi
thnh r, d dng thay i cc kch bn bi ton,vv... ang tr thnh l mt cng c
mnh, phc v c lc trong nhiu lnh vc, trong c lnh vc qun l ti nguyn v
mi trng. La chn m hnh l khu u tin rt quan trng trong phng php m
hnh ton, n ph thuc vo yu cu cng vic, iu kin v ti liu cng nh tim
nng ti chnh v ngun nhn lc sn c. Trn th gii hin nay c rt nhiu m hnh
ton ang c s dng. Trong nghin cu ny, vi mc tiu m phng v tnh ton
ch thy vn, thy lc v cht lng nc cho h thng sng Si Gn ng Nai,
chng ti la chn p dng b phn mm MIKE 11, bi n p ng c nhng
tiu ch sau:
- L b phn mm tch hp a tnh nng;
- L b phn mm c kim nghim thc t;
- Cho php tnh ton thy lc v cht lng nc vi chnh xc cao;
- Giao din thn thin, d s dng;
- C ng dng k thut GIS, l mt k thut mi vi tnh hiu qu cao.

2. Gii thiu m hnh MIKE 11
M hnh MIKE 11 l mt phn mm k thut chuyn dng do Vin Thu lc
an Mch (DHI) xy dng v pht trin trong khong 20 nm tr li y, c ng
dng m phng ch thy lc, cht lng nc v vn chuyn bn ct vng ca
sng, trong sng, h thng ti, knh dn v cc h thng dn nc khc. MIKE 11
bao gm nhiu m un c cc kh nng v nhim v khc nhau nh: m un ma
dng chy (RR), m un thu ng lc (HD), m un ti - khuch tn (AD), m un
sinh thi (Ecolab) v mt s m un khc. Trong , m un thu lc (HD) c coi
l phn trung tm ca m hnh, tuy nhin tu theo mc ch tnh ton m chng ta kt
hp s dng vi cc m un khc mt cch hp l v khoa hc. Trong nghin cu ny,
chng ti s dng cc m un HD, AD v Ecolab.
2.1. M un thy lc HD
M un thy lc c xy dng trn c s h phng trnh Saint Venant mt
chiu cho trng hp dng khng n nh, gm hai phng trnh sau:

Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 342
Phng trnh lin tc
Q A
q
x t

+ =


(1)
Phng trnh ng lng
2
2
0
AR
Q
gQ Q A Q h
gA
t x x C

= + +

=

(2)
L mt h hai phng trnh vi phn o hm ring phi tuyn bc nht, h
phng trnh c dng ny ni chung khng gii c bng phng php gii tch. Do
, ngi ta gii h phng trnh ny bng phng php s vi lc sai phn
hu hn 6 im n (Abbott-Inoescu).
2.2. Cc m un cht lng nc
gii quyt vn cht lng nc c lin quan n nhng phn ng sinh
ha, m hnh MIKE 11 s dng ng thi hai m un l m un ti - khuch tn (AD)
v m un sinh thi (Ecolab) trong tnh ton.
a. M un truyn ti khuch tn
M un truyn ti khuch tn c dng m phng vn chuyn mt chiu
ca cht huyn ph hoc ho tan (phn hu) trong cc lng dn h da trn phng
trnh tr tch lu vi gi thit cc cht ny c ho tan trn ln. Qu trnh ny
c biu din qua phng trnh sau:
2
AC QC C
AD AKC C q
t x x x


+ = +




(3)
Trong , h s phn hu sinh hc K ch c dng khi cc hin tng hay qu
trnh xem xt c lin quan n cc phn ng sinh ho.
Phng trnh () th hin hai c ch truyn ti, l truyn ti i lu do tc
dng ca dng chy v truyn ti khuch tn do Gradien nng gy ra. Phng trnh
ny cng c gii theo phng php s vi s sai phn n trung tm.
b. M un sinh thi (Ecolab)
M un sinh thi trong m hnh MIKE 11 gii quyt kha cnh cht lng nc
trong sng ti nhng vng b nh hng bi cc hot ng dn sinh kinh t.v.v. M
un ny phi c i km vi m un ti - khuch tn, iu ny c ngha l m un
cht lng nc gii quyt cc qu trnh bin i sinh hc ca cc hp cht trong sng
cn m un ti - khuch tn c dng m phng qu trnh truyn ti khuch tn
ca cc hp cht .

3. Phng php nghin cu
Phng php nghin cu s dng trong nghin cu ny bao gm phng php
thu thp, phn tch cc ti liu t cc ngun hin c, phng php kho st thc a,
ly mu phn tch thc trng cht lng nc ti cc v tr quan trc cht lng nc
dc cc sng, nhm nh gi hin trng mi trng ti khu vc nghin cu v thu thp
Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 343
cc ti liu cn thit cho tnh ton. Tip , ng dng phng php m hnh ton
tnh ton, m phng ch thy vn thy lc v din bin cht lng nc trn h
thng sng Si Gn ng Nai.

4. Gii thiu v lu vc nghin cu
Lu vc sng ng Nai l mt trong nhng lu vc sng ln ca Vit Nam v
gi vai tr v cng quan trng trong pht trin kinh t - x hi ca t nc. Lu vc
nm trong vng kh hu nhit i gi ma, c lu vc tch thu i t vng cao nguyn
Ty Nguyn n ht ng bng min ng Nam B, c gii hn trong to t
105
o
30'21'' n 109
o
01'20" kinh ng v t 10
o
19'55" n 12
o
20'38" v Bc.
Tng din tch t nhin khong 43.450 km
2
. Lu vc c hnh nan qut, ko di t cui
sn Ty ca dy Trng Sn thuc Nam Trung B, qua ht vng ng Nam B n
gip vng ng Thp Mi thuc ng bng sng Cu Long. Dng chnh sng ng
Nai chy theo hng ng Bc - Ty Nam, cc nhnh sng ln quan trng vo
dng chnh l sng La Ng (nm bn tri dng chnh theo hng t thng ngun ra
ca sng), sng B, sng Si Gn v sng Vm C (nm bn phi). Ton b h thng
cc sng sui trong lu vc tp trung v cc ca chnh l Gnh Ri v Xoi Rp.
Trong xu th pht trin kinh t - x hi ca c nc, khu vc ny ang v s
ny sinh hng lot cc vn nhim mi trng, c bit l nhim ngun nc ca
hai con sng chnh v quan trng l sng ng Nai v sng Si Gn. Cc khu th,
khu dn c v khu cng nghip tp trung c hnh thnh v pht trin mnh m dc
theo 2 con sng ny t thng ngun (Lm ng, Bnh Thun, Bnh Phc, Ty
Ninh) n trung lu (ng Nai, Bnh Dng) v h lu (Thnh ph H Ch Minh, B
Ra - Vng Tu) , ang v s l ngun gy nhim nc cho 2 con sng ny.

5. Cc ti liu s dng
Vi mc tiu tnh ton cht lng nc, ti liu, s liu phc v cho m hnh
trong tnh ton cn rt nhiu, bao gm cc s liu v thu vn, thu lc v cht lng
nc, c th nh sau:
5.1. Ti liu mt ct
Ton b h thng sng trong khu vc nghin cu gm c 4 con sng vi 52 mt
ct, trong :
Sng ng Nai: 26 mt ct ( T trm Ho An - trm Nh B)
Sng Si Gn: 16 mt ct (T trm Bnh Phc nam Ct Li)
Sng Nh B: 8 mt ct (T trm Nh B - trm Vm St)
Sng Lng Tu: 2 mt ct (T Ph Xun Nh B - trm Tam Thn Hip)
Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 344
S liu mt ct c
dng trong tnh ton ch yu
do Tng cc Kh tng Thu
vn c (nay l B Ti nguyn
v Mi trng) o c nm
2003. Ni chung s liu mt
ct s dng trong m hnh c
tin cy tng i cao. S
ha mng li sng trn
lu vc c th hin nh
Hnh 1


Hnh 1. S mt ct h thng sng Si Gn - ng Nai
5.2. Ti liu kh tng thy vn
Ti liu kh tng thy vn bao gm ti liu v mc nc v lu lng, o c
theo gi nm 2005, c dng lm iu kin bin trn (Q~t ), bin di (H~t) hoc
hiu chnh v kim nh m hnh. Danh sch cc trm thy vn s dng c lit
k trong bng 1
Bng 1. Danh sch cc trm thu vn s dng
STT Tn trm Sng
1 Trm thu vn Ho An ng Nai
2 Trm thu vn Ct Li ng Nai
3 Trm thu vn Nh B ng Nai
4 Trm thu vn Bnh Phc Si Gn
5 Trm thu vn Ph An Si Gn
6 Trm thu vn Tam Thn Hip Lng Tu
7 Trm thu vn Vm St Nh B
5.3. Ti liu cht lng nc
S liu cht lng nc mt quan trc ti cc im ly mu vo cc nm 2003,
2004, 2005 v 6 thng u nm 2006, trong s liu quan trc nm 2005 c
dng lm iu kin bin hoc hiu chnh v kim nh m hnh, chui s liu
t thng 10/2005 n thng 12/2005 c s dng hiu chnh m hnh cht
lng nc. Cc ch tiu cht lng nc c tnh ton thu thp bao gm:
DO, BOD, TN, TP, tng Coliforms.
Ti liu v ngun gy nhim: Trong qu trnh pht trin, cng nghip ha,
hin i ha, cc a phng trn lu vc sng Si Gn ng Nai v ang
Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 345
tip tc i mt vi vn nhim cc ngun nc vi xu hng ngy mt gia
tng, c bit l khu vc h lu ca h thng sng ny. Cc ngun thi gy
nhim chnh i vi h thng sng Si Gn ng Nai c nhn din bao gm:
+ Ngun thi t cc khu th
+ Ngun thi t cc khu cng nghip tp trung
+ Ngun thi t cc c s cng nghip phn tn
+ Ngun thi t cc bi rc
Cc s liu thu vn, thu lc trc tin c s dng din ton ch thu
lc trong h thng sng nghin cu, lm u vo cho bi ton cht lng nc, sau
kt hp vi cc s liu cht lng nc tnh ton m phng cht lng nc trong
cc sng.

6. Kt qu ng dng m hnh MIKE 11
6.1. Kt qu tnh ton thy lc h thng sng Si Gn - ng Nai
Mc tiu ca tnh ton thy lc l xc nh mt b thng s thu lc ph
hp nht i vi lu vc nghin cu, phc v cho m hnh cht lng nc. Cn c
vo nhim v tnh ton, ti liu mt ct v cc ti liu c bn thu thp c, s
tnh ton thy lc cho mng sng Si Gn ng Nai c thu hp li nh Hnh 1
trn bi cc l do sau:
Do thiu s liu mt ct trn vng thng lu sng Si Gn
Do thiu s liu lu lng, mc nc thc o v mt ct di vng Ca Soi
Rp v Lng Tu Ng By.
a. Cc bc ng dng


Cc
Ci t
m
hnh
Thit lp cc
iu kin bin
trn v di
Xy dng
iu kin
ban u
Hiu
chnh
m hnh
Kim
nh m
hnh
Bin ca bi ton c xc nh nh sau:
Bin trn l qu trnh lu lng gi thc o t 01/01/2005 n 31/12/2005 ti
cc trm Bnh Phc, Ha An.
Bin di l qu trnh mc nc gi thc o t 01/01/2005 n 31/12/2005 ti
cc trm Vm St, Tam Thn Hip.
Hiu chnh, xc nh thng s m hnh
Vic hiu chnh thng s ca m hnh thy lc c thc hin ch yu qua vic
thay i h s nhm Manning, bc thi gian tnh ton v gi tr ban u. Sau khi hiu
chnh thng s, m hnh m bo chnh xc cn thit vi bc thi gian tnh ton l
1 gi, h s nhm trong khong 0.02-0.03. Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh thu lc ti cc
trm Ct Li, Ph An v Nh B c th hin trn cc hnh 2, 3, 4 nh sau:
Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 346
09:00
2005-01-15
09:00
01-16
09:00
01-17
09:00
01-18
09:00
01-19
09:00
01-20
09:00
01-21
09:00
01-22
09:00
01-23
09:00
01-24
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Cat Lai
H CatLai Obs [meter]
H Cat Lai Cal [meter]
Hnh 2. So snh mc nc gia kt qu tnh
ton vi s liu thc o trm Ct Li.
09:00
2005-03-02
09:00
03-03
09:00
03-04
09:00
03-05
09:00
03-06
09:00
03-07
09:00
03-08
09:00
03-09
09:00
03-10
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Phu An
H Phu An Obs [meter]
H Phu An Cal [meter]
Hnh 3. So snh mc nc gia kt qu tnh ton
vi s liu thc o trm Ph An.
09:00
2005-03-02
09:00
03-03
09:00
03-04
09:00
03-05
09:00
03-06
09:00
03-07
09:00
03-08
09:00
03-09
09:00
03-10
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
PhuAn
H Phu An Obs [meter]
H Phu An Cal [meter]

Hnh 4. So snh mc nc gia kt qu tnh ton
vi s liu thc o trm Nh B.
Sai s gia s liu thc o v tnh ton ti cc trm c nh gi theo ch s
Nash-Sutcliffe, c th nh trong bng 2.
Bng 2. Phn tch hiu qu v sai s ca hiu chnh m hnh
TT Trm kim nh Mc hiu qu ca m hnh (%)
1 Ct Li 90%
2 Nh B 94%
3 Ph An 89%
b. Kim nh m hnh
Mc ch ca cng tc kim nh m hnh nhm nh gi mc ph hp ca
b thng s xc nh trong phn hiu chnh m hnh. y chng ti s dng s
liu thc mc nc thc o trong ma kit t thng 1/2004 n thng 12/2004 kim
nh. Kt qu kim nh mc nc ti trm Nh B c trnh by trong Hnh 6 vi
mc sai lch t 92%.
Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 347
4-2-2004 6-2-2004 8-2-2004 10-2-2004 12-2-2004 14-2-2004
-2.2
-2.0
-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
[meter]
Time Series Water Level

Hnh 5. So snh mc nc gia kt qu tnh ton
vi s liu thc o trm Nh B nm 2004.
6.2. ng dng m hnh MIKE 11 tnh ton cht lng nc lu vc sng Si Gn
- ng Nai
a. Mc tiu
Mc tiu l xc nh b thng s cht lng nc ph hp nht cho khu vc
nghin cu. Do hn ch v thi gian v ti liu cht lng nc nn trong nghin cu
ny chng ti ch tp trung vo tnh ton mt s ch tiu cht lng nc c bn quan
tm trong sng theo thi gian v khng gian nh DO, BOD, tng Nit, tng Photpho,
tng Coliforms tng ng vi cc iu kin bin thy lc v cc ngun thi.
b. Thit lp bi ton
Da trn kt qu ca m hnh thy lc tnh ton phn trn. Bi ton cht
lng nc cho lu vc sng Si Gn ng Nai c xy dng tip tc nh sau:
Thit lp cc iu kin bin v cht lng nc v cc ngun thi vo sng:
(i) cc thng s cht lng nc ti cc bin trn (cc v tr quan trc), (ii)
thng s cht lng nc ti cc bin di, (iii) v tr v nng , lu lng cc
ngun x thi;
Hiu chnh m hnh xc nh cc thng s ph hp;
S dng m hnh vi cc thng s mi c xc nh m phng thy lc v
cht lng nc theo khng gian, thi gian vi cc iu kin bin thch hp.
c. S tnh ton
Li tnh ton trong m hnh cht lng nc nh Hnh 2 trn v c thu
gn li bi cc l do sau:
- Ch yu tp trung tnh ton cht lng nc trn sng Si Gn v ng Nai
- Mng li quan trc nc mt ch yu tp trung trn sng Si Gn v sng ng Nai
S liu u vo cho m hnh cht lng nc bao gm:
- Cc iu kin thy lc bin trn v bin di trn h thng sng sau khi c thu
gn s tnh;
- Cc iu kin bin:
+ iu kin bin trn l nng cht lng nc gm 5 ch tiu cht lng nc
o t 01/10/2005 n 31/12/2005 ti cc trm Bnh Phc, Ph An.
+ iu kin bin di l nng cht lng nc gm 5 ch tiu cht lng nc
o t 01/10/2005 n 31/12/2005 ti cc trm Tam Thn Hip, Vm St.
Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 348
- Cc ngun nhim: (i) v tr cc ngun thi ra sng, (ii) nng cc cht trong
nc thi (iii) lu lng thi.
- S liu cht lng nc ti mt s im quan trc dc sng c s dng cho hiu
chnh m hnh. Cc s liu ny c o c ng b vi s liu dng lm bin trn
v bin di trong m hnh thu lc v m hnh cht lng nc.
d. Hiu chnh m hnh
Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh cht lng nc ti cc trm Ph An v Nh B
vi hai ch tiu DO v BOD c m t nh trong cc hnh 7, 8, 9,10.
So snh kt qu hiu chnh nng DO vi s liu
thc o ti trm Ph An nm 2005
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1/10 8/10 15/10 22/10 1/11 8/11 15/11 22/11 1/12 8/12 15/12
m
g
/
l
DO Ph An Cal DO Ph An Obs TCVN 5942-B

Hnh 7. So snh nng DO gia kt qu tnh
ton vi s liu thc o trm Ph An
So snh kt qu hiu chnh nng DO vi s liu
thc o ti trm Nh B nm 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1/10 8/10 15/10 22/10 1/11 8/11 15/11 22/11 1/12 8/12 15/12
m
g
/
l
DO Nh B Cal DO Nh B Obs TCVN 5942-B
Hnh 8. So snh nng DO gia kt qu tnh
ton vi s liu thc o trm Nh B
So snh kt qu hiu chnh nng BOD vi s liu
thc o ti trm Ph An nm 2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1/10 15/10 1/11 15/11 1/12 15/12
m
g
/
l
BOD Ph An Cal BOD Ph An Obs TCVN 5942-B

Hnh 9. So snh nng BOD gia kt qu tnh
ton vi s liu thc o trm Ph An
So snh kt qu hiu chnh nng BOD vi s liu
thc o ti trm Nh B nm 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1/10 15/10 1/11 15/11 1/12 15/12
m
g
/
l
BOD Nh B Cal BOD Nh B Obs TCVN 5942-B
Hnh 10. So snh nng BOD gia kt qu
tnh ton vi s liu thc o trm Nh B
e. Kim nh m hnh
Kim nh m hnh nhm nh gi mc ph hp ca b thng s xc
nh trong phn hiu chnh m hnh. S liu thc o t thng 1/2006 n thng 3/2006
c dng kim nh. Kt qu kim nh m hnh ca cc trm Ph An v Nh B
ca cc ch tiu DO v BOD c trnh by tng ng trong Hnh 10 v 11.
Kt qu kim nh m hnh cht lng nc 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Nh B Ph An
m
g
/
l
DO Cal 8-2006 DO Obs 8-2006

Hnh 10. Kt qu kim nh DO
Kt qu kim nh m hnh cht lng nc 2006
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7
7.2
Nh B Ph An
m
g
/
l
BOD Cal 8-2006 BOD Obs 8-2006
Hnh 11. Kt qu kim nh BOD
Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 349
Theo kt qu tnh ton biu din trn, ta thy sai s gia kt qu tnh ton vi
kt qu thc o nh hn 20%, nh vy m hnh cht lng nc t c chnh
xc yu cu v c th p dng d bo cht lng nc lu vc trong tng lai.

7. Kt lun
Trong nghin cu ny, phng php m hnh ton c s dng trong vic
m phng ch thy vn, thy lc v cht lng nc cho h thng sng Si Gn
ng Nai mt lu vc sng ln v gi vai tr quan trng trong pht trin kinh t t
nc. Kt qu tnh ton, m phng thy vn, thy lc cht lng nc bng m hnh
MIKE 11 kh tt, cho thy kh nng ng dng hiu qu ca m hnh. Tuy nhin c
th s dng m hnh tt hn na trong hin ti v tng lai, i hi s liu quan trc
thy vn, thy lc v cht lng nc cn ng b, dy c v chnh xc hn.

Ti liu tham kho
1. Ven T Chow, Larry W Mays, David R Maidment Applied Hydrology Mc
Graw - Hill International Editions - 1988
2. PGS.TS. ng Vn Bng - i hc Thu Li M hnh ton thu vn - H Ni,
2005
3. L Trnh, L Quc Hng - Mi trng lu vc sng ng Nai-Si Gn. Nh xut
bn khoa hc k thut, H Ni. 2004.
4. Trn Hng Thi v nnk - Bo co tng kt d n ng dng m hnh tnh ton
d bo nhim mi trng nc cho cc lu vc sng: Cu, Nhu y, Si Gn
ng Nai Vin Khoa h c Kh tng thy vn v Mi trng, H Ni - 2006
5. Vin Khoa hc Thy li Min nam - Nghin cu xut cc gii php khoa hc
cng ngh n nh lng dn h du h thng sng ng Nai Si Gn phc v
pht trin kinh t - x hi vng ng Nam B. TP H Ch Minh, 01-2005.
6. DHI software - MIKE software 2004 User Guide.
7. DHI software - MIKE 11 Reference Manual 2004


Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT 350