Accelerated Test: Failure Rate at 25 C ???

Reliability Engineering, ET- 4256, TU delft
Digital Signal Processor

Accelerated Test Data (High Temerat!re Test"#
$ Test Temerat!re# %25
&
' ( )*+ ,
$ T&tal De-ice H&!rs# %./... h
$ ) fail!res 0ith acti-ati&n Energy &f %/. e1
$ 2 fail!res 0ith acti-ati&n Energy &f ./4 e1
2ail!re Rate at 25
&
' 333
4e15 energy acti-ati&n
4,5 tem/ abs&l!te
4e16,5 %. 6 / + # th 0i
5
.
A
T k
E
E
T
k e Q Q
A
Accelerated Test
$ E-al!ate e7!i-alent de-ice h&!rs er fail!re m&de
h&!rs at %25
&
' E
A
h&!rs at 25
&
' fail!res
25
4h
-%
5
%./... %/. %/+% %.
+
) %/66 %.
-+
%./... ./4 5/.5 %.

5
2 5/*4 %.
-6
t&t 5/*6 %.
-6
1
]
1

2*+
%
)*+
%
)*+ 2*+ ,
k
E
x
x
e t t
Accelerated Test
Confidence Level
(table)
Based on
2
distribution:
T
P x
C
UCL
" 8 (
2
2

Number
of
Failure
s
Confidence Level
5.9 6.9 *.9 *59
. ./6. ./*) 2/)% 2/*6
% %/6+ 2/.. )/+* 4/6:
2 2/6: )/.+ 5/). 6/2%
) )/6: 4/%: 6/:. :/6*
4 4/6: 5/24 +/.. */.*
5 5/6: 6/25 */25 %./42
6 6/6: :/2: %./55 %%/:6
: :/6: +/)) %%/:5 %)/%6
+ +/6: */)5 %)/.. %4/).
* */6: %./42 %4/2. %5/6)
%. %./6: %%/42 %5/4. %6/*5
Ea H&!rs at 25' 2ail!res

%,. %,+%E<..+ ) 4,%: 2,30E-008
.,4 5,.5E<..5 2 ),.+ 6,10E-006
6,12E-006
U'=(6.9"
fail!res

25
(ucl
60%)
t&t
Poisson Distribution
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P
=
1
-

p
r
o
b
.

o
f

U
C
L
x=0 x=1 x=2 x=3 x=4
m
UCL
= predicted # of failure (UCL)
Ea H&!rs at 25' 2ail!res
%,. %,+%E<..+ ) 4,%: 2,30E-008
.,4 5,.5E<..5 2 ),.+ 6,10E-006
6,12E-006
U'=(6.9"
fail!res

25
(ucl
60%)
t&t
Reliability Data Analysis
Time [h] Pump A Pump
0
100 !
104 "
300 !
308 "
2000 !
2003 "
4476 !
4486 "
7014 !
7020 "
8760 # #
Reliability data &f 2 identical !ms
$ >!m A is !sed 24h6day
$ >!m ? is !sed %2h6day
$ >!ms fail &nly acti-e and are n&t ne0 at start &f eri&d
$ @bser-ati&n eri&d# Aan %-Dec )% (n& data a-ailable &-er re-i&!s years"
333 '!m!lati-e 2ail!re Distrib!ti&n 2(t"
333 BT?2
C ( fail!re
R ( reaired
@ ( end &f &bser-ati&n
Data normalized to active hours
Time [h] Pump A Pump
0
100 !
104 "
300 !
308 "
2000 !
2003 "
4476 !
4486 "
7014 !
7020 "
8760 # #
)..
5.
42:4
+:.
24:)
%6*2
)455
>!m A
>!m ?
2ail!re
D!r-i-al
Failure Distribution
Time [h] $%ilu&e' ()*' "(+)
0 7 1
50 6 1
300 5 1
870 4 1
16,2 1 3 0-75
2473 1 2 0-5
3455 1 1 0-25
4274 0 0-25
-0!
0
0!
0"
0#
0$
%
0 %000 !000 &000 "000 '000
F(t)

%
%
%

i
i i
i i
N
X N
R R h
X
t t N
MTBF
i
i
i
i i i
4):%
)
%)%%4
" (
% %

Accellarated life test
R(t"(eE4-(t"
'
5
Accelerated test#
4).,8
4).
(4%.-), '(%/:2

45.,8
45.
(5%.-), '(%/:2
4e16,5 %. 6 / + 0ith " (
5
.

B
T k
E
k e Q T Q
B
A
Arheni!s relati&n
((t) ))
&00
))
R(t"(eE4-(t"
'
5
Accelerated test#
4).,8
4).
(4%.-), '(%/:2

45.,8
45.
(5%.-), '(%/:2
%
" ( " (

c
t c t
%
% ( "
( " ( "
( "
c
!R t
t c t
R t !t

4).
45.
%
ln .,%+5:
% %
45. 4).
A
E k
_

1
,

1
]
4
)..
4/5 %.

45. 4). )..
45. 4). )..
% % %
A A A
E E E
k k k
e e e

*+ercise, -os.ital /o0er 1u..ly system
F
Emergency
generat&r
>!blic
D!ly
a
(acti-e"
(&ff"
3 BarG&- Diagram (n& reair"
3 Reliability
3 BTT2
@erati&n
Theatre
-os.ital 1u..ly 1ystem
2ar3ov 2odel
D
.
Differential E7!ati&ns#
(eEtra" %
" (
2
.
)
2 .
2
% .
%
.
.

+
i
i
N P
A N
P N
P P
P P
!t
!P
P P
!t
!P
P
!t
!P

H& reair,
then
D
2
D
%
D
4
D
)
n
D
.
D
)
D
2
D
%
n
1olvin4 Reliability
Time D&main
(eEtra" %
" (
2
.
)
2 .
2
% .
%
.
.

+
i
i
N P
A N
P N
P P
P P
!t
!P
P P
!t
!P
P
!t
!P

(eEtra"
%
%
%
%
2
.
)
. 2
. %
.

+ +
+

+
+ +
+

+
+ +
i
i
P N N
P
N
P
P N A
N
A
N
P N
P
s
P
s s
P
s
P
s s
P
s
P
s
P

=alace D&main
Transf&rmati&n
(eEtra"
%
% 8
8
%
2
.
)
2
%
.

+ +
+
+
+

+ +
+
+
+ +
i
i
P N N
A P N
N
P N A
P N
P
s
P
" C
s
"
s
C
P
B A
s
B
s
A
P
s
P

Dlit int& single terms
Transf&rmati&n
[ ]
2 % .
" (
2
" (
%
" (
.
" (
III IIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIII
P P P t R
P
P
P
e e
e e
e
t t
t t
A P N
N
t
P N N
P N A
P N
+ +
+

+
+
+


1olvin4 2TTF
Direct fr&m Time D&main
2 % .
. 2
. %
.
" (
III IIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIII
%
%
%
P P P s R
s s
P
s
P
s s
P
s
P
s
P
P N N
P
N
P
P N A
N
A
N
P N
+ +
+
+ +
+

+
+ +
+

+
+ +

2r&m =alace D&main
X X
X X
X
!t P
P P !t
!t
!P

1
]
1
.
.
" . ( " (
2 % .
2 .
% .
.
IIII IIIIIIIIII
.
.
" ( %

+ +
+

+
N P
A N
P N
" ( lim
" ( lim
.
.
s R
!t t R
#
T
T
1
]
1
+ +
+
N
P
A
N
P N

%
%
2 .
2
% .
%
.
.
" (
P P
!t
!P
P P
!t
!P
P
!t
!P
N P
A N
P N

+

Catastro.hic Failure 2odel
.P/
2
.P/
1
.)0+ &)l
/0i +
ex+e&0%l
p&)ce''e'
mi &&)&e1
1i '2'
333 'atastr&hic 2ail!re m&del
333 2ail!re r&bability &f system
2ail!re >r&babilities
$
Terminal#
t
$
DisG#
d
$
'>U#
c
$
'&ntr&l !nit#
ctrl
Catastro.hic Failure 2odel
.P/
2
.P/
1
.)0+ &)l
/0i +
ex+e&0%l
p& )ce''e'
mi &&)&e1
1i '2'
R
%
=R
2
= %$
c
%$
t
'>U% Term%
'>U2 Term2
DisG%
DisG2
Rctrl
R%
R2
R)
R
)
=%$
!
2
R
4
=%$
ctrl
R
5
=%%R
%
%R
2
Rctrl R5 R)
R
)
=%$
!
2
R
4
=%$
ctrl
R
D
R
#
=R
5
R
)
R
ctrl
Rctrl
/eriodic /reventive maintenance
2-!nit acti-e red!ndant system
$ 2ail!re rate
$ Baintenance# eri&d T(%6(%."
$ ideal (as ne0"
$ negligibly sh&rt
))) 2TTFF
" ( %
" (
.
T R
!t t R
MTTFF
T
Dte %# R(t" 0ith&!t maintenance

Dte 2#
/eriodic /reventive maintenance
D. D% D2
2

T
T
T
e
e
T R
!t t R
MTTFF
e e t R
e e P
s s
P P P P
e P
s
P P P
+
+

+

%
%
2
)
" ( %
" (

- 2 " (
2 - 2
2
% 2
2

2
%
2
)
%
.
t 2 - t -
t 2 - t -
% % % .
J
%
t 2 -
. . .
J
.
1ubmarine .ro.ulsion system
Engine %
Engine 2
K
K
Acti-e red!ndancy (identical !nits"
K( %.
-)
6h
%/ BTT22 0ith&!t c&rrecti-e maintenance3
%/ BTT22 0hen failed engines are reaired !&n fail!re
(reair rate (%.
-%
"
%/ 'all-rate (fre7!ency" f&r the reair facility (K LL "3

K
K
BarG&- diagram
2TTFF 0ithout corrective maintenance)
D
.
D
%
D
2
2K K
MTTFF=
%
2K
%
%
=%5..h
P
.
&
=2KP
.
'P
%
P
%
&
=2KP
.
'% P
%
P
2
&
=%P
%
(=(
.
(
%
=
%
%
'%
2K
%
=5%5..h
K
K
BarG&- diagram
2TTFF 0ith re.air on unit level)
D
.
D
%
D
2
2K K
<
%=2K(
.
'(
%
.=2K(
.
'%(
%
%=%(
%
K
K
BarG&- diagram
Call-rate ))
D
.
D
%
D
2
2K K
<
call rate
%
c)cle time
=
%
%
2K
%
'
=
%
5%. h
1.are-.art .rovision
$ Bissi&n Time# 6 m&nths
$ 1ital Radar art# (%.
-4
6h (2 re7!ired acti-e"
$ *.9 s!r-i-al r&bability re7!ired
3 H&0 many sare arts re7!ired 3
D
.
D
%
D
2
D
B
D
B<%
%
st
rel
B
th
rel
2
nd
rel
2 2 2 2 2
D
.
D
%
D
2
D
B
D
B<%
%
st
rel
B
th
rel
2
nd
rel
2 2 2 2 2
M M
M
i i
i
P P
!t
!P
P P
!t
!P
P P
!t
!P
P
!t
!P

2 2
2 2
2 2
2
%
%
% .
%
.
.
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
t
M
M
M
M
M M
t
i
i
i
i
i i
t
t
e
M
t
P
s
P
s
P
e
i
t
P
s
P
s
P
e t P
s
P
s
P
e P
s
P

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
2
%
%
2
%
%
2
%
2
. %
2
. .
M
2

2
2
2
2

M
2

2
2
2
2

2
2
2
2
2

2
%

( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
t
M
M
M
M
M M
t
i
i
i
i
i i
t
t
e
M
t
P
s
P
s
P
e
i
t
P
s
P
s
P
e t P
s
P
s
P
e P
s
P

+

+

+

+

+

+

+
2
%
%
2
%
%
2
%
2
. %
2
. .
M
2

2
2
2
2

M
2

2
2
2
2

2
2
2
2
2

2
%

( )

M
i
T
i
e
i
T
R
.
2
M
2
(T"

T( 4)6+h
B(. R(T"( ./4%:4
B(% R(T"( ./:+2%
B(2 R(T"( ./*4%4
1hared re.air
=athe#
=
( %6yr
=
( %..6yr
'!tter#
'
( 26yr
'
(
%5.6yr
% reairman#
strategy#
first c&me8 first ser-e
3 BarG&- Diagram
3 ?!sy 9 reairman
3 A
=
3 BTTR
=
'
D
.
'
D
4
'
D
2
D
%
'
D
)
%
%. 442 / .
%. )2. / .
%. %). / . 2 " (
%. %6. / . " (
*66 / . " (
4 ) 2 % .
4
4 4 2
5
) ) %
)
2 ) .
)
% 4 . %
. 2 % .
+ + + +
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
P P P P P
P P P
P P P
P P P P
P P P P
P P P P
C L
L C
L C C L
C L L C
C L C L

1hared re.air
=

=
'
'
'
'
D
.
D
2
D
4
D
%
D
)
%
%. 442 / .
%. )2. / .
%. %). / . 2 " (
%. %6. / . " (
*66 / . " (
4 ) 2 % .
4
4 4 2
5
) ) %
)
2 ) .
)
% 4 . %
. 2 % .
+ + + +
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
P P P P P
P P P
P P P
P P P P
P P P P
P P P P
C L
L C
L C C L
C L L C
C L C L

)r MTTR
MTTR MTTR MTBF
MTBF
A
P P A
P
L
L L
L
L L
L
L
L
bus)
.2% / .
6 %
6 %
*:* / .
9 4 / ) .)4 / . *66 / . % % >
2 .
.

+

5.timization
A
2
(./+
'
2
()...
A
)
(./+5
'
)
(45..
A
%
(./*
'
%
(25..
Dystem# ) s!bsystems
A
t&t
m!st be

./*:5
alternati-es# acti-e red!ndancy &n s!bsystem le-el
33 'heaest c&nfig!rati&n f&r A
t&t
./*:5
5.timization
A
2
(./+
'
2
()...
A
)
(./+5
'
)
(45..
A
%
(./*
'
%
(25..
Dte%# A
%,2,)
./*:5 start c&nfig!rati&n (2,),2"
Dte 2# (2,),2" A
t&t
(./*6.8 '&sts# 2)...
(),),2" A
t&t
(./*6*8 '&sts# 255..
(!6&6&) A
tot
70898: Costs, !9'00
(2,4,2" A
t&t
(./*668 '&sts# 26...
/roblem
Network with computers:
! all lines: failure prob" = p
## $
%&
:
! with path'cut method
! with decomposition method
%
& (
) 2
a
b
f e d c
i
*
h
1olution(%)
$educe series and parallel structures
! *+=*''(h i)
! e+=e''(b f)
## ,(*+) and ,(e+)
%
& (
) 2
a
b
f e+ d c
*+
i h
,(*+) = ,(e+) =p(%-(%-p)
2
)
1olution, /ath 2ethod (%)
%
& (
2
a
e+ d c
*+
.aths:
/inimal paths##:
mimimal cuts##:
ae+0 c*+0 cde+0 cd*+0 ac*+0 ad*+
ae+0 c*+0 cde+0 ad*+
(line reliabilities11)
e d c , g d a , g e , c a
(line failure probabilities11)

1olution, Decom.osition 2ethod (!)
$educe series and parallel structures
! *+=*''(h i)
! e+=e''(b f)
## ,(*+) and ,(e+)
%
& (
) 2
a
b
f e d c
*+
i h
1olution, Decom.osition 2ethod
% 20(
a'c
e+' *+
%
& (
2
a
e+ c
*+
$
s
= d 2 3 d
{ } { } ( ) [ ]
* + : 6 5 4 2
2
2
2
2 2
2 %% 2. * %. + %
" 2 ( % " % ( % % " 2 ( % " % "( % (
"" J % "( J % ( % ( " J J % "( % (
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
ae c* ! * e c a ! R
s
+ + +
1
]
1
+
1
]
1

+
;et0or3
3
R
2-*
(c&nnecti&n fr&m 2 t& *"
3Again 0hen eEchanges (n&des" ha-e
als& ha-e a limited a-ailability
r+,-.../
>
local
( ./**** ((a-ailability l&cal linGs"
>
i0terlocal
( ./** ((a-ailability interl&cal linGs"
N
NN
N1
NNN
%
4
)
2
:
6
5
%.
*
+
%2
%%
e
c
b
a
d
;et0or3
3R2-*
N
NN
N1
NNN
%
4
)
2
:
6
5
%.
*
+
%2
%%
e
c
b
a
d
local
( ./****
i0terlocal
( ./**
[ ]
{ }
{ }
2
2
2 2 ) 4 5
>r(2 *" % >r( "
% >r ( " ( " ( " ( "
% 2 2 ) 2
./***6.
1 111
$ fail
$ a b b c ! c e a ! e
$ 2 2 2 2

1
]
1 + +
]
[ ]
[ ]
( )
2
2
2 2 2 ) 2 4 2 5 2 5 2 5 2
>r(2 *" >r( "
>r( ( " ( " ( " ( "
2 2 5 4
./**:56
$ 1 111
$ 1 111 a 11 c a 11 ! 13 e b 13 e b 13 ! 11 c
$ r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r 2 r

+ +
3 Again 0hen eEchanges (n&des" als&

ha-e a limited a-ailability r+,-.../
1.are .arts .roblem, /olar e+.edition
)4
Motor sleigh:
! different0 e4chan*eable parts
! ) spare parts of each t5pe
! part failure rate:
! 6=7"7&'month (normal)
! 6+=7"78&'month (2 slei*hs left)
! 69=7"%&'month (% slei*h left)
.r(% slei*h a:ailable0 after month)##
/olar e+.edition
***65: / .
M
" 6 ) ( " % (
5
.
6 )
1
]
1

i
i
$
i
e
P

)4
No slei*h when parts of one t5pe failed11
)6 )6 )6 )6 69 26+
.er part:
)6=26+=69=7"%&'month
( )
6
" % ( " % (
$ #l
P P
( "
4
4
R5t6 + -
5t 7 6
,
>
/eriodic 2aintenance (/2)
4 BTT2 0ith&!t >B3
4 BTT2 0ith >B (T()"3
4 (e5li5i*le m%i0+e0%0ce +ime
4 6%i0+%i0e1= 7%' 0e89
( "
4
4
R5t6 + -
5t 7 6
,
>
4 BTT2 0ith&!t >B3
2
2
.
2
.
( "
( "
MTTF !t
t
t
+

+

( "
4
4
R5t6 + -
5t 7 6
,
>
4 BTT2 0ith >B3
.
( %"
( "
.,%, ////
( "
( "
4
% ( " 5
4
i
m
4
T
m
iT t i T
R 5t6 + R T -
i
5 t iT 7 6
R t !t
MTTF
R T
< +

( "
4
4
R5t6 + -
5t 7 6
,
>
4 Ns !seless
. ./5 %
.
./2
./4
./5
.
Re t ( "
Rm t ( "
% . t
. ./2 ./4
.
2
4
6
5
./455
O t ( "
./4 . t

Accelerated Test: Failure Rate at 25 C ???

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Accelerated Test: Failure Rate at 25 C ???

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Reliability Engineering, ET- 4256, TU delft

Digital Signal Processor

Ea H&!rs at 25' 2ail!res

Reliability Engineering, ET- 4256, TU delft

Dte %# R(t" 0ith&!t maintenance

Reliability Engineering, ET- 4256, TU delft

3 Again 0hen eEchanges (n&des" als&

Reliability Engineering, ET- 4256, TU delft

Reliability Engineering, ET- 4256, TU delft

You might also like