Chapter 2: Probability

Section 2.8: Bayes Theorem

Exercise 2.106
The probability that a one-car accident is due to faulty brakes is 0.04, the
probability that a one-car accident is correctly attributed to faulty brakes is
0.82, and the probability that a one car accident is incorrectly attributed to
faulty brakes is 0.03.
a. What is the probability that a car accident will be attributed to faulty
brakes?

A: The probability that a car accident will be attributed to faulty
brakes.
B: The probability that a car accident is due to faulty brakes.








b. What is the probability that a car accident attributed to faulty brakes
was actually due to faulty brakes?
Part a. is an example of the rule of total probability.
P(A) = P(B) * P(A|B) + P(B)*P(A| B)
and can be generalized by
Theorem 2.12. If the events B1, B
2
, . . . , B
k
constitute a partition of the
sample space S and P(B
i
) 0 for i = 1, 2, . . . k, then for event A in S
P(A) =
) | ( * ) (
1
i
k
i
i
B A P B P

A charity sells pink, blue, and purple bags for $10 each: 35% of the bags
are pink, 25% of the bags are blue, and 40% of the bags are purple. In 7%
of the pink bags, 6% of the blue bags, and 8% of purple bags are gift cards
for $100. Find the probability that any given bag contains a $100 gift card.



Theorem 2.13. If the events B1, B
2
, . . . , B
k
constitute a partition of the
sample space S and P(B
i
) 0 for r = 1, 2, . . . k, then for event A in S such
that P(A) 0
) | ( * ) (
) | ( * ) (
) | (
1
i
k
i
i
r r
r
B A P B P
B A P B P
A B P

r = 1, 2, . . . k.


See the previous example. Knowing that a bag containing a gift card was
chosen, what is the probability that the bag is purple?