REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

William and Phyllis

Mack Center
for Technological Innovation
The Future of
BioSciences:
Four Scenarios for
2020 and Beyond...
Highlights of a major report by the BioSciences Crossroads
Initiative of the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at
the Wharton School and Decision Strategies International
This long-term project explores the key factors that will
influence commercialization of life science technologies
from now until 2020 and beyond
The goal of this research is to provide decision makers in
many industries with insights needed to develop,
commercialize and deploy life science technologies
Decision
Strategies
International
Four Scenarios for the
Future of BioSciences
No one can reliably predict if emerging life
science technologies will be wildly successful,
or fall short of expectationsor whether the
public will accept or reject these new scientific
techniques. What we do know for certain is
that multiple futures are possible. So how do we describe, anticipate and plan for these possible futures?
Prof. Paul Schoemaker has led a team of management researchers from the Mack Center for Techno-
logical Innovation at the Wharton School, and senior consultants from Decision Strategies Interna-
tional (DSI), to develop four scenarios that describe the commercialization potential of emerging
bioscience technologies from now until 2020 and beyond:
How Decision Makers
Can Use These Scenarios
Whether your organization is a pharmaceutical firm,
biotech startup, government agency, NGO, or patient
advocacy group, you need to think about the long-term
future and consider the drivers that will shape the future.
The Future of BioSciences team at the Wharton School
has developed four meta-scenarios that senior managers
and strategic planners can use as a starting-point to create
micro-scenarios for specific industries and environments.
In the coming months and years, DSI and the Future of
BioSciences team will monitor industry trends, winning
and losing strategies, best practices and critical issues.
Our goal is to provide insights of interest and value to
decision makers in organizations that are developing,
deploying or benefiting from bioscience technologies.
SCENARIO
DIAGRAM
A. WHERES THE BEEF?
Patients and practitioners want and need
medical solutions to treat and cure disease,
but science falls far short of expectations.
B. NEW AGE OF MEDICINE
Medical science achieves unprecedented
breakthroughs that cure disease, help
people live longer and ushers in a new age
of personalized medicine.
C. MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
Genomics, stem cells and other life sciences
cause much commotion but fail to achieve their
early promise. Research investment dries up
and remains stalemated about ethical what ifs.
D. BIOSCIENCES HELD HOSTAGE
Medicine and healthcare strive to develop and
commercialize embryonic stem cells, cloning,
gene therapy and other technologies, but the
public rejects these technologies at a deep level.
These scenarios are described in more detail in
the The Future of BioSciences research report
(Fall 2005). To order this 100+ page report,
please visit our website:
www.thinkdsi/biosciences
Researchers from the Wharton School and DSI host an
ongoing series of workshops, meetings, conferences and
interviews with industry experts. Individuals and
organizations that are interested in participating in
these events in the futureas sponsors and partners in
our programsare encouraged to contact us.
This 2x2 Matrix summarizes the four scenarios presented in the
Future of BioSciences report, based on technological success or failure
and public acceptance or rejection.
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Technology Fails Technology Succeeds
Introduction
Future of BioSciences Report
The following excerpts from the Future of BioSciences Report, edited by Paul J.H. Schoemaker and Michael S.
Tomczyk, describes key elements of a long-term research project that will continue to evolve over time as the future of
bioscience unfolds. We invite you to join our network of funding partners, sponsors and researchers who are studying
critical developments in biomedicine and other technologies that have the potential to transform all of our lives.
Technology can benefit from public supportim-
pacting laws, regulatory policies, investment, media
coverage and many othe aspects. Conversely, inno-
vation can be slowed or frozen if the public opts out
of promising technologies.
One thing we know for surewe all need to pay at-
tention to what happens in the life sciences because
the implications are enormous, for all of us.
THE FUTURE OF BIOSCIENCES
Table of Contents
Introduction
Executive Summary: Four Scenarios for the BioSciences
Chapter 1. Assessing the Future of BioSciences
Insights from Wharton Research in Emerging Technologies
Scenario Planning as a Conceptual Framework
Using Scenarios to Craft or Test Strategies
Chapter 2. Lifes Sciences and Healthcare Today
The BioSciences Value Chain
Technological Progress
The Biomedical Research Model
Disease Areas and Treatments
Global Health Care Challenges
Chaper 3. Forces Shaping the Future of BioSciences
Long Term Trends (common to all four scenarios)
Key Uncertainties (that vary across scenarios)
The Role of Stakeholders in BioSciences
Drivers and Results: Modeling Complex Relationships
Chapter 4. Four Scenarios for the Future of BioSciences: 2020
Wheres the Beef?
New Age of Medicine
Much Ado About Nothing
BioSciences Held Hostage
Chapter 5. Strategic Implications
Implications for Stakeholders
Strategic Postures, Reinvention and Change
Leadership Imperatives
Expert Views and Commentary
Chapter 6. Next Steps: Tracking the BioSciences
Monitoring What Happens Next
Keeping the Dialog Going
Contributors and Acknowledgments
Figures
From now through 2020, we can
expect major successesand fail-
uresin the commercialization of
emerging life science technologies.
These technologies, which we call
biosciences, include genomics,
proteomics, bioinformatics, stem
cell therapies, cloning, regenerative
medicine and related areas.
Some of these technologies will be
wildly successful while others will
fall far short of expectations. Some
will be welcomed by the public, and
others will be rejected.
If successfulnew therapies will
come from analysis and manipula-
tion at the molecular level of organs,
tissues, cells, genes and proteins
and from the convergence of bio-
medicine/systems biology and in-
formation technology, telecommu-
nications and nanotechnologies.
We would also expect new types of
sensors, implants, drug delivery sys-
tems and artificial organs; and im-
proved diagnostics to detect com-
municable diseases before symp-
toms appear. New forms of person-
alized care and customized medi-
cine would also be enabled.
If unsuccessfulstem cell research,
tissue engineering and therapeutic
cloning could be restrained by pub-
lic policy; drug recalls could slow
the regulatory process. Gene therapy may not be avail-
able before 2020 and even if gene therapy works, a
stunning failure could introduce unintended muta-
tions or other consequences, and smother genetic re-
search. If a lethal viruses or bacteria emerge that are
resistant to known cures, we could see unprecedented
pandemic diseases; weaponized diseases in the hands
of bioterrorists could likewise wreak havoc, worldwide.
Who are the
Stakeholders?
The stakeholders in biosciences include virtually ev-
ery individual and organization, worldwide, because
what happens in life sciences will affect everyone,
everywhere.
The Stakeholder Map shown here identifies four key
groups of stakeholders: For Profit Organizations in-
cluding pharmaceutical and biotech firms, insurance
providers et. al.; Government Organizations such as
health and regulatory agencies and world health orga-
nizations; Non-Profit/Non-Government Organiza-
tions such as disease and consumer advocacy groups,
private research centers and charitable organizations;
and Academic Institutions including universities, re-
search hospitals and research centers.
It is likely that the combination of technology and public
opinion will foster new models for medical and scien-
tific research including drug discovery, diagnostics,
medical treatment and personalized care. Decision
makers need to consider how biosciences will influence
health insurance, pensions, privacy laws and govern-
Influence Diagrams
Scenarios can be influenced by many forces and
events, such as an economic downturn, changes in
population demographics, the pace of innovation,
enabling technologies such as supercomputers, et. al.
Scenario building in a complex environment requires a
systems approach. With so many variables in play, and
countless possibilities available, a sense-making frame-
work is needed to conceptualize the key cause and ef-
fect relationships in the biosciences.
The BioSciences research team has created .an influ-
ence diagram for each scenario that shows driving forces
and consequences.
ment regulations; and plan for the transforming effects
on long term care, life insurance, agriculture, consumer
products, industrial processes and much more.
Lessons From Other Industries
How does the freezing of the nuclear power
industry relate to a potential failure of bioscience
technology?
The nuclear power
industry suffered a strong
public backlash after the
nuclear accident at Three
Mile Island, resulting in
no new nuclear power
plants built in the U.S.
and most other countries,
for more than 30 years. This kind of technology
shutdown could occur in the biosciences if there is a
failure that creates a media meltdown and public
outrage.
Fuel efficient vehicles, semiconductors and genetically
modified foods provide other analogies where industries
have faced conditions similar to those described in our
scenarios. For example, the extraordinary decades-long
run of the semiconductor industry could offer a model
for biosciences if stem cell research or gene therapy
achieves a string of successes a la the New Age of
Medicine. These industry stories reveal pitfalls to
avoid, as well as positive lessons for strategists.
improvement in
systems biology
earlybioscience
breakthroughs from
current pipeline
specialized drugs
raisingefficacy
controversialbioscience
researchand development
adopted
shift inlegislation
public acceptance of
biosciences
economic health
improves
educational reformimproves
understandingof life-altering
possibilities inbioscience
researchanddevelopment
media-friendlycelebriti es join
the nationawide campaignto
educate the public
growthinpublic and
private fundingfor life
sciences
healthcare costs
decline
job creation
percei ved threat fromadvances in
biological and chemical weapons
amongunstable regimes
increased fundingfor
biodefense
US continues to
drive innovation
respect for
intellectual property
favorable trade relations
withemergingeconomi es
Influence Diagram
Scenario B
New Age of Medicine
BioSciences Stakeholder Map
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Technology Fails Technology Succeeds
Four Scenarios for the
Future of BioSciences: 2020
Scenario B:
New Age of Medicine
The View From 2020:
The new age of medicine envisioned in the 1990s
has finally come to pass. Medical technology has
provided effective treatments or alternatives for many
previously fatal diseases. Breakthroughs in regen-
erative medicine have extended the life expectancy
of people in developed countries, exacerbating the
pressures caused by aging populations. Millions of
people in developing nations have benefited from
novel cures for malaria and many other diseases.
Scenario Excerpt:
Remarkable achievements in molecular science and
other areas of medicine have ushered in a new age
of medicine.
Biomedical solutions are
making it possible to
eradicate or con-
trol most diseases,
extend longevity,
and improve the
quality of life.
Scenario C:
Much Ado
About
Nothing
The View From 2020:
The long delay in delivery of molecular science so-
lutions has led people in all nations to settle into a
status quo mentality, where expectations for
medical miracles exist in theory, but not in real life.
Patients suffering from debilitating diseases have lost
hope in the power of technology to save them. Dis-
ease advocacy groups are frustrated after decades of
lobbying for research funding, given the lack of re-
sults.
Scenario Excerpt:
In 2020, molecular science has failed to fulfill its
early promise, leading to frustration among patients,
practitioners, investors and politicians. Technology
has not delivered the expected and hoped-for solu-
tions, and society remains deeply conflicted.
Scenario D:
Biosciences
Held
Hostage
The View From 2020:
Successful life science treatments and cures can
not break through the obstacles posed by negative
public sentiment, legal barriers and lack of fund-
ing. This opposition comes from lack of education
or understanding of how life science technologies
work, as well as legitimate safety and ethical con-
cerns. The greatest obstacles entail moral or ethical
considerations involving the manipulation of human
genes and proteins and other molecular structures.
Scenario Excerpt:
Significant developments and breakthroughs in new
life science technologies have produced raging suc-
cess in the field, but many of the most novel and
effective of these are rejected by consumers, govern-
ment agencies, advocacy groups and in some cases,
entire regions of the world.
Scenario A:
Wheres the Beef?
The View From 2020:
The world is becoming increasingly hazardous to
your health. Medical science has been unable to
cure many common diseases, despite strong public
pressure and ambitious corporate and government
research initiatives. The promise of biomedicine
and gene therapy in particular have not fulfilled their
early promise after decades of research.
Scenario Excerpt:
In 2020, public demand for biomedical solutions and
breakthroughs is extremely high, especially for
incurable forms of cancer, cardiovascular disease,
diabetes, Alzheimers, AIDS, malaria, hereditary
conditions, drug-resistant infections, to name a few.
Unfortunately, technology
has been slow to
deliver, causing the
public to demand:
Wheres the beef?
How Scenarios Can
Help Decision Makers
Anticipate the Future
The field of biosciences offers a rare opportunity to
study and monitor vital technologies that are just
beginning to move from research to commercializa-
tion.
To understand this emerging and very complex field,
the management researchers in the Mack Center at
Wharton and senior DSI consultants are using a
scenario approach that has been used effectively to
evaluate many firms and industries.
What Is Scenario Planning?
Scenario planning is a management tool for visual-
izing and describing several possible futures based
on trends, uncertainties, stakeholder roles and cause-
and-effect relationships (drivers). This approach is
especially applicable to technology-driven industries
that are evolving under conditions of high uncertainty
and complexity.
Scenarios can be meta-scenarios that apply to an en-
tire industry or set of technologies (such as biosciences),
or micro-scenarios for a specific firm, industry or in-
terest group.
The scenario planning approach developed by DSI en-
abled our research team to identify the most important
uncertainties in biosciences, and use those to describe
likely scenarios that can be monitored and planned for.
For the biosciences, we identified technological suc-
cess and public support as two critical variables/driv-
ers, and these became the parameters for the 2x2 ma-
trix used to create the four scenarios.
Ideally, decision makers can use these meta-scenarios
as a starting-point to craft micro-scenarios and strate-
gies for their organization, industry and environment.
Our report identifies the trends, uncertainties and stra-
tegic factors that will influence commercialization of
life science technologies and the evolution of health
care in the coming decades.
Who Can Benefit From
Reading This Report?
This report offers value to individuals and organi-
zations in many fields, including:
Managers in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, in-
surance, consumer products and other industries
who are planning their business strategies,
Policymakers trying to understand how to address
the factors that will transform the future,
Healthcare providers and practitioners, and
Consumers and advocacy groups who want safe,
effective, affordable medical cures and treatments.
Hopefully, the insights presented in this report, and in
the ongoing Future of BioSciences research project, will
help organizations develop strategies for their specific
sectors.
To order your copy of this report, and become involved
in our biosciences learning network, visit our website
at: www.thinkdsi.com/biosciences.
About the Researchers...
Content for the report was developed from a wide
range of research activities involving project leaders
from the Mack Center and DSI, research team mem-
bers, scenario authors, workshop participants and in-
dustry/academic experts in many fields.
This report is edited by Paul J.H. Schoemaker and
Michael S. Tomczyk. Prof. Schoemaker is Research
Director of the Mack Center for Technological In-
novation, director of the BioSciences project, and
founder/chairman of DSI, Inc. Michael Tomczyk is
Managing Director of the Emerging Technologies
Management Research Program (Mack Center) at
Wharton.
This research benefits from insights developed dur-
ing more than 10 years of management research by
the Emerging Technologies Management Research
program, some of which is summarized in the book,
Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies
edited by George Day and
Paul Schoemaker with
contributions by 17 Whar-
ton faculty authors.
Support for this research is
provided by industry part-
ners in the BioSciences
Crossroads Initiative at the
Wharton School, and cor-
porate sponsors (listed on
the back cover of this Execu-
tive Summary).
DSI and the Mack Center
are organizing an insight-building network of spon-
soring organizations and individuals to participate
in the next phase of our Future of BioSciences re-
search.
This promises to be especially exciting as we con-
tinue to track the emerging future of biosciences.
Factors that will influence
commercialization of
biosciences from now
until 2020 and beyond...
Scenario building in a complex environment like
biosciences requires a systems approach. The Future
of BioSciences report identifies and considers the
impact of trends, uncertainties, the roles of stakehold-
ers, strategic drivers and of course, technological
innovation. Based on these factors, the report builds
influence diagrams that show multiple cause and effect
relationships, and discusses strategic implications for
decision makers.
Multiple futures...
The history of innovation is littered with the skeletons
of technologies and industries that adopted a single
future view of the world. In a complex environment
such as biosciences, multiple futures are possible
which is why we study many different paths and
monitor their course as bioscience technologies, and
opportunities, continue to evolve.
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
U
1
A major new disease crisis/pandemic
U
2
Supply of qualified people in healthcare & research
U
3
Legislative restrictions
U
4
Will the focus shift elsewhere?
U
5
Public acceptance of Biosciences
U
6
Role of complementary industries
U
7
Major setback/backlash or meltdown
U
8
Emergence of artificial life forms
U
9
Economic growth around the world
U
10
Intellectual property regimes
U
11
Global power shifts
U
12
Scarcity and politics of water
U
13
Venture capital cycles/funding sources
U
14
Sustainable growth
U
15
Biotech rogue states
U
16
Raging success/killer apps
U
17
Global climate shifts
U
18
Capacity of science to deliver solutions
LONG TERM TRENDS
That Will Influence BioScience Technologies
T
1
Aging Population
T
2
Systems Biology & Scientific Convergence
T
3
Customization of Therapeutics
(personalized medicine)
T
4
Continued Innovation Explosion
T
5
Increased Distributed Computing
T
6
Miniaturization and Automation
T
7
Increasing Cost Containment
T
8
Focus Areas of Economic Development
(by many governments/entities)
T
9
Improvements in Agricultural Production
T
10
Need for Education and Training
T
11
Bioterrorism
(actual and preventive measures)
Bio-driven
Convergence
Security/
Defense
I
T
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Agriculture
Automotive
Vaccines
Pathogens
BioDefense
BioSensors
Biometrics
Telemedicine
Telehealth
HT Screening
Molecular
Imaging
Nanotech
Grid Computing
Wireless
Remote
Diagnostics
Monitoring
GMOs
Animal
Health
Cloning
Nutraceuticals
Cosmeceuticals
Transgenics
Biomarkers
Cloning
Genomics
Proteomics
Cell Therapies
Genetic Screening
Stem Cells
Tissue Farming
Emerging
Technologies
Nanobiotechnology
Regenerative Medicine
Medical Robotics
Artificial Organs
Space Medicine
BioSciences
Bio-Driven
Convergence
To order your copy of the
Future of BioSciences
research report,
please visit our website at:
www.thinkdsi.com/biosciences
To become an industry partner in the
BioSciences Crossroads Initiative at
the Wharton School, visit our website
at: http://
mackcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/
biosciences
BioSciences Crossroads Initiative
William & Phyllis Mack Center
for Technological Innovation
The Wharton School
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6371
Phone: 215-573-7722 Fax: 215-573-7722
Email: emerging-tech@wharton.upenn.edu
Web: http://mackcenter.wharton.upenn.edu
Decision Strategies International, Inc.
100 Four Falls Corporate Center, 6th Fl.
Conshohocken, PA 19428
Phone: 610-717-1000 Fax: 610-717-1005
Email: info@thinkdsi.com
Web: www.thinkdsi.com
We wish to thank our industry partners
and sponsors, whose valuable support
makes this research possible:
Procter & Gamble