Heartland renewal?

Immigrants, their children, and the Baby Boomer transition

Rolf Pendall
Director,
Metropolitan Housing & Communities Policy Center
The Urban Institute
rpendall@urban.org
Presentation to REALTOR University, June 24, 2014
1
Outline
Demographics, households, and
homeownership
The Baby Boomer transition:
Releasing housing to younger generations
Why Hispanic growth matters
For the Midwest
For the nation
Policy implications
2
Demographics, households, and
homeownership
Young people form households, feed
homeownership
15-34: Household formation begins and reaches
maximum acceleration
25-44: Transition to homeownership begins and
reaches maximum acceleration
Older adults exit from households,
homeownership
55-64: More household exits than entries
65 onward: Accelerating exits
3
Household change by birth decade,
1990-2030 (observed & projected)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
I
n
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a
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D
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1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
M
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l
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s

1995-2015
1985-94
1975-84
1965-74
1955-64
1945-54
<1945
Observations: Decennial Census. Projections: Pendall, Myers, Freeman, & Hepp 2012 middle
series, based on US Census 2009 projections. 4
Homeowner change by birth decade,
1990-2030 (observed & projected)
Observations: Decennial Census. Projections: Pendall, Myers, Freeman, & Hepp 2012 middle
series, based on US Census 2009 projections.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
I
n
c
r
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a
s
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D
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c
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a
s
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I
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I
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a
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D
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c
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a
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1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
M
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l
l
i
o
n
s

1995-2015
1985-94
1975-84
1965-74
1955-64
1945-54
<1945
5
Non-whites are critical to current and
future household formation
0
5
10
15
1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
N
e
t

g
r
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M
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Hispanic
Other
Black
White
Observations: Decennial Census. Projections: Pendall, Myers, Freeman, & Hepp 2012 middle
series, based on US Census 2009 projections. 6
and growth in homeownership.
Observations: Decennial Census. Projections: Pendall, Myers, Freeman, & Hepp 2012 middle
series, based on US Census 2009 projections.
0
5
10
15
1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
N
e
t

g
r
o
w
t
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i
n

h
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m
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b
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a
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h
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M
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Hispanic
Other
Black
White
7
Recent out-migration saps demand for
ownership housing in Great Lakes
Map portrays ratio of seniors exiting homeownership to young people entering
8
The future of Midwest housing
markets?
two, Image by Scott Carey, cc-nc-nd-3.0, https://flic.kr/p/9tCVPE 3/25/11
9
Hispanics in 1990:
Mostly in traditional gateways
10
Hispanics in 2010: Positioning the
Great Lakes, NE Corridor for renewal?
11
Great Lakes & Northeast Baby Boomer
transition: Crisis or opportunity?
Recent diverse growth can make the
differencebut only if young people stay.
Preparing young-adult residents to move into
retiring Boomers jobs (starting now)
Creating living-wage jobs in senior care
(accelerating 2020-25)
Incentivizing retrofits of existing housing for safe,
comfortable aging in place
Sprawl without growth adds to challenge
12
Whats in it for the rest of the country?
Scott Carey, west side, 4/17/11, cc-
nc-nd-3.0 https://flic.kr/p/9zs5BD
Daniel Lobo, Sprawl, 4/1/07, cc by 2.0,
https://flic.kr/p/FrTLG
13