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+
g
AOIG
OI
F F
2
1
1
1
+ NFA
where g is the forecasted growth rate of 4%.
First calculate AOIG two years ahead (2007). There are two methods for doing this.
Method 1: Difference between cum-FCF OI for 2007 minus normal OI for 2007
Forecast of OI for 2007 = NOA
2006
RNOA
2007
NOA
2006
= 4,632 1.04
= 4,817.3
OI
2007
= 4,817.3 0.2794
= 1,345.9
FCF
2006
= OI
2006
- NOA
2006
= 1,294.0 185.3
= 1,108.7
AOIG
2007
= OI
2007
+ FCF
2006
reinvested (1.086 OI
1997
)
= 1,345.9 + (0.086 1,108.7) (1.086 1,294)
= $35.95 million
Method 2 (much simpler!): AOIG is growth in residual operating income from the previous
year
AOIG
2007
= ReOL
2006
0.04
= 895.6 0.04
= 35.82 (allow for rounding error)
Accordingly, the valuation is:
Value of equity =
(
+
04 . 1 086 . 1
82 . 35
294 , 1
086 . 0
1
+ 1,012
= $25,113 million or $96.18per share
(d) Value of operations = Value of equity - NFA
= 25,113 1,012
= $24,101 million
(e) ReOI is driven by RNOA and growth in net operating assets. So, if RNOA is forecasted
to be constant, net operating assets must be forecasted to grow at 4% per year.
(f) Forward enterprise P/E = $24,101/$1,294 = 18.63
Forward levered P/E = $25,113/$1,326.4 = 18.93
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+ =
1 1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
NBC OI
V
ELEV
OI
V
Earn
V
NOA NOA E
= 18.63 - [0.0244 (18.83 1/0.032]
= 18.93
(ELEV
1
= NFE/Earnings = -32.4/1,326.4 = -0.0244
(g) Stock repurchases change financial leverage; in this case, Nike liquidated its financial
assets to pay for the stock repurchase. Operating income will not be affected because NOA
are not affected by stock repurchase. With fewer shares outstanding, eps will increase, as the
denominator effect (fewer shares) overwhelms the number effect (loss in interest income on
the financial assets). The only exception is the case where financing leverage is unfavorable
(RNOA less than RNFA). Also, the expected eps growth rate will increase. But, if the share
repurchase is at fair market value, price will not change. See Boxes 13.5 and 13.6.