Danh Gia Vien Tro PDF

nh gi Vin tr
KHI NAO C TC DUNG, KHI NAO KHNG, VA TAI SAO

Ngi dch: Nguyn Th Thanh Minh
Nguyn Th Vit Phng
Hong Quc Hng
Phm Hng Vn
Nguyn nh Th
V c Dng
Ngi hiu nh: Nguyn Quc Thng
Bo co nghin cu ch nh sch
ca Ngn hng Th gii
ANH GIA VIN TR
NGN HANG TH GII
Bnh lun v cun nh gi vin tr: Khi no c tc dng, khi no khng, v ti sao
Cun sch tt nht v y nht v nh hng ca vin tr. Mi ngi quan tm n mi quan
h gia cc nc giu v nc ngho (ai m khng?) u nn c. Ti hy vng tt c nhng c
quan chu trch nhim phn phi vin tr u buc cn b qun l ca mnh phi c cun sch
ny.
Alberto Alesina, Gio s kinh t, i hc Harvard
Nu cc nh ti tr mun nghim tc s dng vin tr gip ngi dn thot khi i ngho,
h cn c cun sch ny trc khi lm bt k iu g. Bng chng ca tc gi a ra cho thy
c th tng cng hiu qu vin tr ln rt nhiu nh nhng thay i n gin nhng cn bn
trong chnh sch vin tr.
Gio s Jan Willem Gunning, i hc Oxford
Gim c Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t chu Phi
Cun nh gi vin tr l mt bc tip theo trong qu trnh i mi t duy ca Ngn hng Th
gii v chin lc pht trin v vin tr. y l mt bc i xa hn khi th gii cht hp tn c
in ca cc th trng hon ho.
Shigeru Ishikawa, Gio s Danh d, i hc Hitotsubashi
nh gi vin tr a ra mt tnh hung tuyt vi trong vin tr c th v c tc dng -
l khi n h tr cho cc ci cch trong chnh sch v qun l nh nc l yu t ch o tng
trng nhanh v gim i ngho. Nhng ng thi cng c mt bi kch l mt phn rt ln vin
tr vn ang b lng ph. nh gi chn thc v mi m ny v vin tr ni chung v vin tr ca
Ngn hng Th gii l mt ti liu quan trng cho nhng ngi lm chnh sch lin quan ti ci
cch ci cch cc c quan quc t v vin tr.
Nancy Birdsall, Thnh vin Cao cp, Qu Ho bnh Carnegie
Mt phn tch mi m v mt ch quan trng, vit mt cch tinh t, thng thn v dng cm.
Robert Klitgaard, Gio s Cao cp v Pht trin v An ninh Quc t ca Ford, Gim c
trng Sau i hc RAND
nh gi Vin tr l cun th by trong tp Bo co Nghin cu Chnh sch vi d nh mang
n cho bn c ng o kt qu nghin cu ca Ngn hng Th gii v cc vn chnh sch
pht trin. Cc bo co ny tng kt nhng iu c bit v cha bit v cc vn ny v gp
phn tranh lun v cc chnh sch cng cng thch hp cho cc nc ang pht trin.
Tham kho mng internet theo a ch http://www.worldbank.org/research/aid/
ANH GIA VIN TR
ANH GIA VIN TR
ix
Mc lc
Li ni u................................................................................................................... xiii
Nhm lm bo co ....................................................................................................... xv
Tng quan i mi t duy v ng tin v cc tng vin tr............................ 1
Mi trng quc t mi ........................................................................................... 8
T duy mi v chin lc pht trin...................................................................... 11
Tin cng quan trng - trong mt mi trng chnh sch tt................................ 15
Vin tr c th lm b cho cc chnh sch tt ................................................. 19
Tin cng quan trng - trong mt mi trng th ch tt ..................................... 22
Vin tr c th lm b cho cc th ch hiu qu ............................................. 24
Tin, nhng cng nhiu tng hn..................................................................... 26
1. Tin cng quan trng - Trong mt mi trng chnh sch tt........................... 32
Cc nc khc nhau - vn mnh khc nhau........................................................... 33
Ti sao c s chnh lch? ...................................................................................... 36
Vi cc nc c c ch qun l tt........................................................................ 38
Vin tr cha u tin cc nc c c ch qun l tt............................................ 46
Vin tr c trng im........................................................................................... 48
2. Vin tr c th lm b cho cc chnh sch tt................................................. 53
ng tin- li hay hi i vi ci cch? ............................................................... 54
thc lm ch - tin cng khng th mua c.................................................... 56
Khuyn khch ci cch .......................................................................................... 60
Nu cam kt - cung cp tin, nu khng cam kt - cung cp tng .................. 65
3. Tin cng quan trng - Trong mt mi trng th ch tt ................................ 68
Tnh bt phn nh? ............................................................................................... 70
Chi tiu cng cng - Cht lng ch khng phi s lng.................................... 83
Cc nh ti tr nn lm g?.................................................................................... 88
4. Vin tr c th lm b cho cc th ch hiu qu............................................. 94
Cung ng cng cng tt hn.................................................................................. 95
Cung ng cng cng khng qua c quan cng cng........................................... 104
Lm cho vin tr c tc ng gip dch v cng cng tt hn............................ 107
ANH GIA VIN TR
nh gi Vin tr: khi no c tc dng, khi no khng, v ti sao
x
5. Tin, nhng cng cn nhiu tng hn ........................................................... 115
Vit Nam: iu chnh khng cn tn dng........................................................... 117
Phn quyn v ci cch gio dc En Xanvao, Pakixtan v Braxin ................. 120
Camrun: ngun ti chnh cho y t v vic cung cp dch v.............................. 124
Sng kin duy tu ng b chu Phi ................................................................ 126
Kt lun ............................................................................................................... 128
Ph lc ....................................................................................................................... 133
nh gi tc dng ca vin tr i vi tng trng............................................. 133
Gii thch v thnh cng hay tht bi ca cc chng trnh iu chnh c cu... 138
Phn tch tnh bt phn nh ca vin tr nc ngoi.......................................... 143
Tc ng ca t do cng dn v ch dn ch ti hot ng ca chnh ph.... 148
nh gi tc ng ca nghin cu phn tch....................................................... 152
Khung ..............................................................................................................................
1. nh ngha vin tr ...................................................................................... 7
2. Tnh lng vin tr ...................................................................................... 9
3. nh ngha v c ch qun l tt: chnh sch v th ch........................... 14
4. Chc nng ca U ban H tr Pht trin ................................................... 15
5. Quan im ca cc bn lin quan v mc hiu qu ca vin tr.......... 27
1.1 Vin tr v cc nc ngho mc nhiu n................................................. 47
2.1 Ci cch ch lng hu......................................................................... 61
4.1 Vin tr v tp quyn................................................................................. 97
4.2 Mt s tri dy hu ch ca cc t chc phi chnh ph ........................... 106
4.3 Ti nh c trong pht trin ..................................................................... 110
5.1 Ci cch cc c quan vin tr trong nhng nm 1990............................. 131
Hnh .................................................................................................................................
1. Dng ti chnh vo cc nc ang pht trin.......................................... 8
2. ODA so vi GNP, cc nh ti tr chnh10
3. Khong cch gia m hnh v thc t Zambia, 1961-94 ........................ 10
4. Tng trng GDP tnh theo u ngi cc quc gia c
thu nhp thp nhng c c ch qun l tt ................................................ 11
5. Kt qu hot ng d n theo mi trng chnh sch v th ch .............. 16
6. Vin tr song phng v quan h thuc a............................................... 17
7. Bu c, nhim k, v kh nng ci cch thnh cng ................................. 20
8. u t cng cng t mt la ca doanh thu t thu hay
vin tr pht trin chnh thc..................................................................... 21
9. Thnh cng trong cc d n cung cp nc nng thn
vi cc mc tham gia khc nhau ca i tng th hng.................. 25
10. S phn b vin tr trn thc t, 1996 v s phn b ti u
gim ngho............................................................................................ 26
ANH GIA VIN TR
Mc lc
xi
1.1 T vong tr s sinh mt s nc, 1967 v 1994 .................................. 34
1.2 Qun l kinh t v tng trng mt s nc ang pht trin.................. 38
1.3 Tc tng trng v mc thu nhp ......................................................... 39
1.4 Vin tr v tng trng mt s nc ang pht trin, 1970-1993.......... 40
1.5 Tc ng cn bin ca vic tng vin tr thm 1% GDP
i vi tng trng..................................................................................... 41
1.6 Tng trng kinh t v ngho kh ............................................................. 43
1.7 Gim t l t vong tr s sinh nh lng vin tr
tng ng 1% GDP................................................................................ 44
1.8 Tc ng cn bin ca lng vin tr tng ng 1% GDP
ti u t t nhn ....................................................................................... 45
1.9 Vin tr song phng, a phng v NHTG tnh bnh qun
u ngi v mc thu nhp........................................................................ 46
1.10 Vin tr v dn s...................................................................................... 47
1.11 Phn b vin tr song phng 1970-1993 ................................................. 49
1.12 Phn b vin tr a phng 1970-1993..................................................... 50
1.13 Ngho kh v chnh sch, 113 nc ang pht trin, 1996 ....................... 51
2.1 Dmbia: Vin tr v chnh sch................................................................. 56
2.2 Gana: Vin tr v chnh sch..................................................................... 58
2.3 Blivia: Vin tr v chnh sch.................................................................. 59
3.1 Phn b cc ngun vin tr, theo loi hnh v ngnh ................................ 69
3.2 Bt phn nh hon ton............................................................................. 70
3.3 Bt phn nh mt phn ............................................................................. 71
3.4 Mt la vin tr v chi tiu Chnh ph .................................................... 73
c lng t mu nhiu nc
c lng theo tng nc v t mu nh
3.5 Mt la vin tr v chi tiu u t cng cng ......................................... 76
3.6 Vin tr song phng v chi tiu ca Chnh ph....................................... 76
3.7 Mt la vin tr cho nng nghip v chi tiu cho nng nghip............... 77
3.8 Mt la vin tr cho gio dc, y t v chi tiu cho gio dc, y t ........... 78
3.9 Chi tiu ca Chnh ph cho y t tnh % GDP v tnh trng sc kho ........ 86
4.1 S tham gia ca ngi hng li v thnh cng d n .............................. 98
4.2 T do cng dn v xc sut tht bi cc d n ca NHTG........................ 99
4.3 Chi ph v li ch khi thm mt tun cng cho cng tc phn tch.......... 113
5.1 Vit Nam: vin tr v chnh sch............................................................. 119
5.2 Pakistan: T l nhp hc ca tr em gi t 5 n 8 tui .......................... 122
5.3 Camrun: Thay i v mc s dng cc trung tm y t, 1990-1991 ....... 125
Hnh khung......................................................................................................................
2 Tng vin tr ODA v vin tr chnh thc iu chnh ca OECD.......... 9
3 Cc th ch, chnh sch v tng trng...................................................... 14
Bng .................................................................................................................................
1.1 Thu nhp u ngi thc t so vi M ...................................................... 35
ANH GIA VIN TR
xii
2.1 c im ca cc chng trnh iu chnh c cu thnh cng v tht bi 59
3.1 Vin tr trong tng chi tiu u t hai nc chu Phi (phn trm) ........ 80
3.2 nh gi tc ng ca d n khi cc ngun vin tr l bt phn nh ...... 81
Bng ph lc ...................................................................................................................
A.1.1 c lng tc ng ca vin tr i vi tng trng .............................. 136
A.1.2 Cc nc trong bng s liu..................................................................... 137
A.2.1 D tnh kt qu ca vic iu chnh vn vay ........................................... 142
A.3.1 Tc ng ca vin tr nc ngoi i vi tng chi tiu,
chi tiu thng xuyn v chi u t, 1971-1990...................................... 146
A.3.2 Tc dng ca tn dng u i i vi chi tiu ngnh
ca chnh ph, 1971-1990........................................................................ 147
A.4.1 c im c bn ca cc nhn t phi qun l quyt nh
ti li sut kinh t ca cc d n chnh ph............................................. 150
A.4.2 Tc ng ca cc ch tiu v t do cng dn i vi li sut kinh t ca
cc d n chnh ph, c i chng vi cc bin s v kinh t v d n... 151
A.5.1 Tc ng ca ESW i vi kt qu d n v mc sinh li kinh t........... 155
ANH GIA VIN TR
xiii
Li ni u
rong vin tr nc ngoi kin thc cng khng km phn quan trng so vi tin
bc. Gip cc nc v cc cng ng hnh thnh kin thc cn thit cho pht trin
l vai tr c bn ca vin tr. V vin tr cng l mt lnh vc cn hc hi lin tc khi
cc bi hc thnh cng v tht bi tr nn r rng.
nh gi vin tr l ng gp cho qu trnh hc hi khng ngng ny. Cun
sch gp phn vo vic i mi t duy v vin tr m cng ng quc t ang tin
hnh - i mi t duy theo hai ngha. Th nht, vi vic kt thc chin tranh lnh, c
nhng ngi t vn l liu c cn thit phi vin tr hay khng trong mt th gii
m cc th trng vn lin h cht ch vi nhau. Vi xu hng ny, chng ti chng
minh c rng vin tr t nc giu sang nc ngho vn c vai tr ca n.
Th hai, cc nc ang pht trin v cc nc pht trin u ang xem xt li vai
tr ca vin tr di nh sng ca m hnh pht trin mi. Vin tr hu hiu c th gip
pht trin th ch v ci cch chnh sch l cc yu t ti quan trng cho qu trnh pht
trin. Trong sut 50 nm qua d c rt nhiu c gng nhng s ngho kh trn th
gii vn l mt vn nghim trng.
Nghin cu v vin tr, tng trng v gim ngho kh cung cp nhng bng
chng quan trng chng ta tng cng hiu qu ca vin tr. Bo co ny tm tt
nhng kt qu nghin cu gn y ca Ngn hng Th gii v hiu qu vin tr. Cng
trnh nghin cu gc hoc sp c cng b trn cc tp ch chuyn mn. Cn bo
co ny c mc ch ph bin cc kt qu nghin cu cho cc i tng c gi rng
hn. Cn nhn mnh rng c nhng kha cnh quan trng trong hp tc pht trin m
cng trnh nghin cu ny cha cp n. Bo co ny ch hn ch nhng lnh vc
m chng ti c nhng pht hin mi.
Vin tr thng qua cc hot ng khc nhau nhm cung cp tin ca v nhng
tng. C hai ch chnh c nu trong bo co ny. Ch th nht l vin tr
mun c hiu qu phi ng lc, v ch th hai l n i hi phi kt hp tin v
tng mt cch hp l.
Xc nh vin tr ng lc rt quan trng gip cc nc ci thin chnh sch
v th ch ca mnh. Khi cc nc ci cch cc chnh sch kinh t ca mnh, vin tr
ng lc c th gip tng cng ch li ca ci cch v duy tr s ng h ca cng
chng. Cng tng t nh th, cp a phng khi cc cng ng t t chc li vi
nhau ci thin dch v th vin tr i khi c th quyt nh n thnh cng hay tht
bi ca cc sng kin ny.
T
ANH GIA VIN TR
xiv
V cc lnh vc hot ng khc nhau, chng ti thy vin tr c tc ng ln
nhng ch cc nc c thu nhp thp v c c ch qun l tt.Trc khi cc nc tin
hnh ci cch, ti chnh c rt t tc dng. Do , cc nh ti tr phi da vo cc cng
c ca mnh h tr pht trin trong mi trng b bp mo v bo co xem xt chi
tit khi no vin tr c tc dng v khi no th khng.
c tc ng ln hn i vi vic gim ngho kh trn phm vi ton cu thng
qua pht trin cng bng v bn vng, vin tr nc ngoi i hi phi c s hp tc ba
bn gia cc nc nhn vin tr, cc c quan vin tr v cc nc ti tr.
Nc nhn vin tr cn phi hng v cc chnh sch v th ch tt. S tham gia
tch cc ca x hi dn s c th gip duy tr c c ch qun l tt cc nc ang
pht trin. May mn l nhiu nc ngho ang tin hnh cc cuc ci cch nghim tc
v chnh sch v qun l nh nc, do mi trng to nhiu thun li cho vin tr
c hiu qu trong hng thp k qua.
Cc c quan pht trin cn chuyn trng tm khi mc tiu tng lng gii ngn
v nh gi hot ng d n mt cch cc b sao cho vin tr c hiu qu cao hn. Cc
c quan ny cn phi c nh gi theo mc phn b cc ngun lc ca mnh, c
ngun kin thc v ti chnh, vi mc ch khuyn khch ci cch chnh sch v i mi
th ch nhm ci thin i sng ca ngi dn. Rt may l cc c quan a phng v
song phng ang t i mi v hp tc vi nhau hot ng tr nn hiu qu hn.
Cui cng, dn chng ca cc nc ti tr cn tip tc ng h vin tr. Rt tic l
ti thi im vin tr c coi l hiu qu nht nh hin nay th lng vin tr li gim st
v ang mc thp nht. Bo co ny c mc ch ku gi cc nc ti tr tip tc cung
cp vin tr v tham gia tch cc vo s nghip pht trin v hp tc pht trin.
Pht trin c hiu qu hn c ngha l ci thin cuc sng ca hng trm triu
ngi dn: ba n c y hn, con ci kho mnh hn, nhiu tr em c ti
trng hn. y l nhng mc tiu ng chng ta phn u v nu c qun l tt
th vin tr c th ng gp rt nhiu.
Joseph E. Stiglitz
Ph ch tch cao cp ph trch kinh t pht trin
Chuyn vin kinh t trng
Ngn hng Th gii
Thng 11-1998
ANH GIA VIN TR
xv
Nhm lm bo co
Bo co nghin cu chnh sch ny do David Dollar v Lant Pritchett thuc
Nhm Nghin cu pht trin vit. y l nh cao ca chng trnh nghin cu v hiu
qu vin tr do Lyn Squire khi xng v gim st. Cc cng trnh nghin cu lm tin
cho bo co ny l ca cc tc gi nh Craig Burnside, Claus Deiningger, Shanta
Devarajan, William Easterly, Deon Filmer, Jonathan Isham, Dani Kaufmann, Elizabeth
King, Jennie Litvack, Luis Serven, Lyn Squire, Vinaya Swaroop v Jakob Svensson. Cc
tc gi s dng nhiu v trch dn cc nh gi v nghin cu ca cc n v khc
trong Ngn hng Th gii. Hu ht cc nghin cu nn c trnh by v tho lun
hi tho Qu u t hi ngoi Nht Bn (OECF) - Ngn hng Th gii Tm nhn Hp
tc Pht trin mi cho th k XXI (Tokyo, thng 9-1997). Cc tc gi cng ghi nhn
nhng h tr nghin cu qu bu ca Mita Chakraborty, Charles Chang, Giuseppe
Iarossi v Pablo Zoido-Lobaton v nhng h tr hnh chnh tuyt vi ca Emily Khine,
Kari Labrie v Raquel Luz. Lawrence MacDonald gip rt tn tnh trong sut qu
trnh chun b bo co. Bruce Ross-Larson cng Jessica Moore v Sharifah Albukhary
hiu nh li bo co trc khi xut bn.
Nhng kin trong bo co nghin cu chnh sch ny khng nht thit phn
nh quan im ca Hi ng Qun tr Ngn hng Th gii hay ca cc chnh ph m
Hi ng i din.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
1
Tng quan
i mi t duy v ng tin
v cc tng vin tr
Vin tr nc ngoi i khi rt thnh cng. Btxoana v
Hn Quc vo nhng nm 1960, Innsia vo nhng nm
1970, Blivia v Gana vo cui nhng nm 1980, Ugana v
Vit Nam vo nhng nm 1990 l nhng dn chng cho
thy cc nc thot ra t khng hong c c s pht
trin nhanh chng. Vin tr nc ngoi gi mt vai tr quan
trng trong tng s bin i, ng gp cc tng v chnh
sch pht trin, o to cc nh hoch nh chnh sch cng
v ti tr cho ci cch v m rng cc dch v cng cng.
Vin tr nc ngoi cng lm bin i ton b cc ngnh.
Hot ng i mi, u t v chnh sch trong nng nghip,
nhng yu t to nn Cch mng Xanh - ci thin i
sng ca hng triu ngi ngho trn th gii - c h
tr ti chnh, c ng h v ph bin thng qua s hp tc
ca cc nh ti tr song phng v a phng. Cc chng
trnh c s ti tr v phi hp ca quc t lm gim mnh
bnh tt chng hn nh bnh m do nc sng v tin hnh
cc chng trnh tim chng m rng chng li cc bnh c
bn tr em. Hng trm triu ngi, nu khng ni l
c i i, th cng c ti trng, s dng nc
sch, v sinh, in, trm y t, ng s v ti tiu - tt c
u nh vin tr nc ngoi.
Ngc li, i khi vin tr nc ngoi cng tht bi hon
ton. Trong khi Mbutu Sese Seko, nh c ti ca Daia
trc kia theo bo co l mt trong nhng ngi c ti sn
c nhn kch x nht th gii (d nhin c u t nc
ngoi) th vin tr quy m ln ca nc ngoi trong hng
thp k qua cng khng em li mt cht tin b no. Daia
(hin nay l Cng ho Dn ch Cngg) ch l mt trong
mt s cc dn chng v vic ngun vin tr c cung cp
u n m khng tnh n - nu khng mun ni l khuyn
khch - s bt ti, tham nhng v cc chnh sch lch hng.
Ly Tandania lm v d, trong 20 nm qua cc nh ti tr
rt vo y mt lng ln tin ti tr, 2 t la cho vic xy
dng ng s. Mng li ng s c ci thin hay
cha? Cha. Do thiu duy tu, bo dng, ng s thng b
hng nhanh hn so vi mc xy dng mi.
Vin tr nc ngoi
i khi rt thnh
cng - nhng i khi
li tht bi hon
ton
ANH GIA VIN TR
2
Do , nhng giai on v a im khc nhau, vin
tr nc ngoi hoc rt hiu qu, hoc hon ton khng hiu
qu hoc hiu qu mc no . y c l l iu mong
i trong na th k qua ca hng lot cc n lc vi v s
cc nc ti tr, hng trm nc nhn ti tr, hng chc
ngn cc hot ng c th v gn mt nghn t la tin vin
tr. Nhng s nhn thc mun mn ny ch c gi tr nu n
to ra c s hiu bit. Lch s si ng v vin tr a
n nhng ci thin v vin tr nc ngoi, to c hi tip
tc ci cch. Cu hi cp bch t ra l: Lm th no vin
tr pht trin c th gim tnh trng ngho kh trn phm vi
ton cu mt cch hiu qu nht?
Cn sm c cu tr li cho vn ny. Mc d trong 50
nm qua vic gim ngho t c nhiu tin b hn so
vi bt k giai on no c th so snh c trong lch s
nhn loi, nhng ngho kh vn cn l mt vn gay cn
mang tnh ton cu. Hn 1 t ngi sng trong cnh ngho
kh cng cc - vi mc sng di 1 la/ngy, thm ch
thiu c nhng dch v c bn m ngi dn cc nc pht
trin cho l l ng nhin phi c: nc sch, v sinh, in,
trng hc. Tht tr tru v ng bun l khi ci cch kinh
t tri qua hng thp k mi to ra c mi trng tt nht
cho vin tr c hiu qu th cc nh ti tr t nhin ct
gim mnh vin tr. Nm 1997, cc nh ti tr OECD dnh
cho vin tr mt khon nh nht trong GNP ca mnh - nh
hn 0,25% - mc thp nht k t khi cc s liu thng k
mang tnh so snh c bt u thu thp vo nhng nm
1950. Phi cn thm khong 50% vin tr na mi tr li
c mc ca nm 1991.
C rt nhiu nghin cu xut sc v vin tr nc ngoi
1
.
Tuy nhin, c ba l do quan trng xem xt li lnh vc
c quan tm theo di ny. Th nht, nhng thay i mi
y trong mi trng kinh t v chnh tr ton cu - nht l
vic chin tranh lnh kt thc v dng vn t nhn t
vo cc nc ang pht trin - tc ng ti bc tranh ton
cc ca vin tr pht trin ti mc ngi ta phi t ra rt
nhiu cu hi cho vn tn ti ca vin tr. Th hai, chin
lc pht trin thay i i hi c mt phng thc vin tr
mi vi vai tr nh mt bin php chin thut trong chng
trnh ngh s lun thay i. Th ba, mt bng chng thc t
gn y gip tr li c cu hi th no l vin tr hiu
qu v th no l vin tr khng hiu qu.
i mi t duy v vin tr dn ti nhng pht hin
Vin tr ti ch nh
pht huy tc dng
trong mt mi trng
ch nh sch tt
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
3
sau:
Vin tr ti chnh pht huy tc dng trong mi
trng chnh sch tt. H tr ti chnh cc nc ang pht
trin c c ch qun l kinh t tt s gip tng trng nhanh
hn, gim tnh trng ngho kh v t c cc ch tiu x
hi. nh hng ca n l rt ln: vi c ch qun l t
nc tt th 1% GDP vin tr s lm gim 1% ngho kh v
cng gim tng t nh vy t l t vong tr s sinh. Tuy
nhin, trong mi trng yu km, tin li c tc ng t hn
nhiu. Tng 10 t la vin tr mt nm s cu c 25
triu ngi thot khi ngho kh - nhng ch i vi cc
nc c c ch qun l kinh t tt. Nu tri li, cho d c
tng 10 t la vin tr cho tt c cc lnh vc th cng ch
cu c 7 triu ngi khi cnh kim n ln hi.
Ci thin th ch v chnh sch kinh t nhng
nc ang pht trin l cha kha to bc nhy vt v
lng trong vic gim tnh trng ngho kh. ng vy,
trong thp k qua vn qun l v chnh sch c
nhng ci thin ng k, nhng nu tip tc ci cch vi
cng mt quy m th hng nm s cu thm c 60 triu
ngi na thot khi ngho kh. Khi cc nc mong mun
ci cch, th vin tr nc ngoi c th ng gp s h tr
cn thit - v tng, o to v ti chnh. Ngc li,
nhng c gng hng "mua" nhng ci thin v mt chnh
sch nhng nc khng c n lc ci cch tht bi
thm hi.
Vin tr hiu qu b sung cho u t t nhn.
nhng nc c c ch qun l kinh t tt th vin tr nc
ngoi khng thay th cho sng kin t nhn. ng vy,
vin tr ng vai tr nh nam chm "ht" u t t nhn
theo t l xp x 2 la trn 1 la vin tr. i vi nhng
nc cam kt ci cch th vin tr gp phn cng c
nim tin tng cho khu vc t nhn v h tr cc dch v
cng cng quan trng. Ti nhng mi trng b bp mo
nghim trng th vin tr li "loi tr" u t t nhn, iu
ny gii thch ti sao trong nhng trng hp nh vy tc
ng ca vin tr li rt nh.
Gi tr ca cc d n pht trin l ch th ch v
chnh sch c cng c c th cung cp cc dch v
mt cch hiu qu. Vin tr em li c s hiu bit ln ti
chnh. Hu ht vin tr c phn b qua cc d n u t
trong nhng lnh vc c th nh ng s, cp nc, hoc
gio dc. Tuy nhin, ti tr theo d n thng khng lm
tng chi tiu ca ngnh hn nhiu so vi vin tr khng
Gi tr ca cc d n
pht trin l ch
th ch v ch nh
sch c cng c
c th cung cp
cc dch v mt
cch hiu qu
ANH GIA VIN TR
4
iu kin, khng hon li - bi v vin tr ni chung l bt
phn nh (khng quy nh mc ch s dng c th - ND).
Do vy, vic chn nhng lnh vc ang c cao nh
chm sc sc kho ban u hoc gio dc c s cng cha
th bo m rng tin c s dng mt cch hiu qu.
Vin tr cung cp ti chnh cho ton b khu vc cng v
cht lng tng th ca cc chnh sch v th ch l yu t
c bn bo m t c li sut cao t vic u t ny.
Nhng pht hin ny cho thy ng gp quan trng nht
ca cc d n khng phi tng ngun ti chnh cho cc
ngnh c th no , m l gip ci thin vic cung cp
dch v bng cch cng c cc th ch a phng v th
ch ngnh. Vic to ra c kin thc vi s tr gip ca
vin tr s dn ti mt s ci thin trong nhng ngnh c
th, trong khi mt phn ti chnh ca vin tr s m rng
cc dch v cng cng ni chung.
Mt x hi dn s tch cc s ci thin cc dch v
cng cng. Mt tng tt m rt nhiu d n trong nhng
nm qua to ra l phng thc tham gia (t di ln -
ND) c p dng trong vic cung cp dch v, thng
em li nhng ci thin ln. Cc d n vin tr tt nht
h tr cho cc sng kin lm thay i cch lm n ca khu
vc cng cng. Phng thc p t t trn xung mang
tnh k tr c p dng cho vic thit k d n v cung
cp dch v khng pht huy tc dng trong nhng lnh
vc pht trin quan trng - cp nc nng thn, gio dc
c s, qun l ngun ti nguyn thin nhin v nhiu lnh
vc khc.
Vin tr c th nui dng ci cch, thm ch trong
nhng mi trng b bp mo nghim trng - nhng i hi
phi kin nhn v ch trng ti vn tng ch khng
phi tin. mt s nc ngho nht trn th gii, chnh
ph khng a ra c nhng chnh sch v dch v hiu
qu, l l do ti sao vin tr gia chnh ph ny vi
chnh ph khc khng thu c nhng kt qu tt. Tuy
nhin, cp ngnh hoc a phng thng vn c nhng
nh ci cch thnh cng, vin tr i khi rt hiu qu trong
vic h tr nhng sng kin ny. Cng vic ny c s tham
gia ca nhiu nhn vin v ch phi chi tiu rt t. Vin tr
thnh cng y nhm gip cc nh ci cch xy dng v
th nghim cc tng ca mnh.
vin tr hiu qu hn trong vic gim ngho i hi
phi tin hnh nm bin php ci cch chnh sch. Th
nht, vin tr ti chnh phi ch trng mt cch hiu qu
hn na ti nhng nc c thu nhp thp m c c ch
Vin tr ti ch nh
cn phi ch trng
mt cch hiu qu
hn na ti cc nc
c thu nhp thp
nhng c c ch
qun l kinh t tt
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
5
qun l kinh t tt. Trong mi trng chnh sch tt, vin
tr ti chnh l cht xc tc tng trng nhanh, t c
cc ch s x hi nhanh hn, v u t t nhn cao hn
(chng 1). Tuy nhin, trong mt mi trng yu km th
vin tr li c t tc ng hn nhiu. R rng l, nhng
nc ngho c chnh sch tt cn phi nhn c nhiu ti
chnh hn so vi nhng nc cng ngho nh vy nhng
c c ch qun l kinh t yu km. Tuy nhin, cho ti u
nhng nm 1990 lng ti chnh vo nhng nc c c
ch qun l tt v nhng nc c c ch qun l ti l nh
nhau. Hn th na, phn ln vin tr vn tip tc dnh cho
nhng nc c thu nhp trung bnh, nhng nc khng cn
ti hnh thc vin tr ny. Hon ton c th tp trung vin
tr mt cch hiu qu hn vo nhng nc ngho nhng
c c ch qun l tt.
Th hai, vin tr trn c s chnh sch phi c dnh
nui dng ci cch chnh sch trong nhng nc ci
cch ng tin cy. Kinh nghim cho thy rng ngun vin
tr c iu kin nghim ngt nhng khng c gii lnh
o v chnh tr trong nc ng h mnh m ni chung s
khng to ra c s thay i bn vng no (chng 2).
Vn y l ngun ti chnh trn thc t vn tip tc
c dnh cho cc chnh ph ch ci cch xung. Ti tr
trn c s chnh sch ch nn dnh cho nhng nc c
thnh tch ln hoc c c s lc quan r rng (v d nhm
h tr cho nhng hnh ng ci cch c th c trong
nc khi xng hoc mt chnh ph va mi thng c
bng cng lnh ci cch). Cc chnh ph mi ln nm
quyn sau xung t thng l nhng ng vin tt cho vin
tr. Ti nhng nc c chnh sch yu km v khng c
ng thi ci cch ng tin cy th vin tr nn gi vai tr
khim tn v kin nhn hn trong vic ph bin tng,
truyn b kinh nghim ca cc nc khc, o to cc nh
lnh o v hoch nh tng lai v tng cng nng lc
tranh lun v chnh sch trong x hi dn s c thng tin
y . Cc bin php ny tng i r v khng mu
thun vi xut cho rng phn ln ngun ti chnh nn
dnh cho cc nc c c ch qun l kinh t tt.
Th ba, hng lot cc hot ng vin tr phi c thit
k trn c s cc iu kin ca cc quc gia v ngnh
(chng 3). Thm ch nhng ni c th ch v chnh sch
yu km th cc nh ti tr vn c gng tm ra mt ci g
hu ch ti tr. Chc chn chm sc sc kho ban
u hoc gio dc c s l nhng lnh vc cn phi ti tr?
Tuy nhin, bng chng cho thy vin tr thng mang tnh
Vin tr trn c s
ch nh sch cn phi
dnh nui dng
ci cch ch nh sch
nhng nc ng
tin cy
ANH GIA VIN TR
6
bt phn nh, bi vy ci m bn thy khng phi l ci
m bn nhn c. Trong trng hp cc d n tng t
ng no cng phi c tin hnh, tin ti tr cho cc d
n v ngnh c th khng nht thit phi "cng nhc" - m
n gin ch tng thm ngn sch cho chnh ph. Do ,
trong mt mi trng b bp mo th cho d cc d n c
c la chn hoc ngun ti chnh ca cc nh ti tr c
c phn b li mt cch mnh m cho cc hot ng
c cao th cng cha chc bo m tnh hiu qu
ca vin tr. xc nh mc hiu qu ca ti tr, cc
nh ti tr cn xem xt mt cch tng th vic phn b v
quan trng hn c l mc hiu qu ca chi tiu cng cng.
Ch phn b cc khon chi tiu khng thi th khng
bo m cho s thnh cng bi cht lng ca chi tiu
cng cng cng quan trng nh s lng chi tiu. nhng
nc c c ch qun l kinh t tt (c v chnh sch kinh t
v m v cung cp cc dch v cng cng), vin tr c th
c b sung di dng h tr ngn sch, iu ny s n
gin ha v mt hnh chnh v gim bt chi ph qun l.
nhng nc c chnh sch ni chung tt nhng kh nng
cung cp dch v cng cng yu, vin tr d n phi l cht
xc tc nng cao tnh hiu qu ca cc chi tiu cng cng.
Cc nc khng c chnh sch tt, khng c dch v cng
cng hiu qu, hoc khng phn b chi tiu hp l s
khng c li nhiu t vin tr; v vin tr trc ht phi tp
trung vo vic ci thin cho c ba lnh vc ny.
Th t, cc d n cn tp trung vo vic to ra v
chuyn giao kin thc v nng lc. Vai tr chnh ca cc
d n pht trin phi l h tr cho nhng thay i v mt
th ch v chnh sch nhm ci thin vic cung cp cc
dch v cng cng (chng 4). Thm ch, nhng ni m
tin c th khng gii quyt c vn th kin thc v
nng lc th ch ca a phng do vin tr lm cht xc
tc to ra li c th gip gii quyt c. i vi nhng d
n mang tnh i mi th vic ra mc tiu, tin hnh
nh gi nghim tc kt qu v ph bin thng tin mi l
cn thit. Nhn thc c khi no vin tr pht huy tc
dng trong vic cung cp dch v - v khi no khng - l
mt trong nhng u ra quan trng nht ca vin tr pht
trin. Trong rt nhiu trng hp, cc phng thc i mi
c p dng cho vic cung cp dch v s thu ht s tham
gia ng o hn ca cc cng ng a phng v vic ra
quyt nh s c phn cp.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
7
Khung 1 nh ngha vin tr
S khc bit gia Vin tr pht trin chnh
thc (ODA) v Ti chnh pht trin chnh
thc (ODF) l g? ODA l mt phn ca
ODF, trong c yu t vin tr khng
hon li cng vi cho vay u i v phi
chim t nht 25% trong tng vin tr. Ti
chnh pht trin chnh thc l tt c cc
ngun ti chnh m chnh ph cc nc
pht trin v cc t chc a phng dnh
cho cc nc ang pht trin. Mt s
khon ti tr ny c mc li sut gn vi
li sut thng mi. "Vin tr nc ngoi"
thng lin quan ti Vin tr pht trin
chnh thc v thng dnh cho cc nc
ngho nht v l trng tm ca nghin cu
ny, nhng nhiu pht hin li c th p
dng vi hnh thc rng hn l Ti chnh
pht trin chnh thc.
C hai loi vin tr ny u c th
chia thnh song phng v a phng.
Vin tr song phng do cc c quan
ca chnh ph ti tr qun l (chng hn
C quan pht trin quc t ca M hoc
Qu hp tc kinh t hi ngoi ca Nht
Bn). Vin tr a phng do cc nc
giu c ng gp v do cc t chc nh
Chng trnh pht trin Lin hp quc v
Ngn hng Th gii qun l. Trong s tt
c vin tr pht trin chnh thc th
khong 1/3 l vin tr a phng.
Mt phn vin tr song phng
mang tnh iu kin, ngha l n phi
c s dng mua sm hng ha v
dch v ca nc ti tr. Cc nghin cu
cho thy vin tr theo hnh thc ny
lm gim gi tr ca vin tr khong 25%
v c s nht tr rng ri rng vin tr
song phng khng iu kin s hiu qu
hn. Mt s nc thuc OECD c mt xu
hng r rt l trnh hnh thc vin tr c
iu kin ny. Nm 1995, vin tr di
hnh thc ny ch chim khong 1/5 tng
s vin tr.
Th nm, do cc phng php truyn thng tr nn
bt lc nn cc c quan vin tr cn phi tm ra c
nhng phng thc thay th h tr cho nhng quc gia
c nn kinh t b bp mo nghim trng (hnh 5). Cc cng
ng dn c v chnh ph l nhng thc th khng ng
nht v thm ch trong nhng mi trng kh khn nht
vn n cha nhng tng ci cch. Cc nh ti tr cn
phi kin nhn, linh hot v tm kim c hi nui dng
nhng n lc ci cch ny. Nhiu khi nhng tng s tr
nn hu hiu hn so vi ngun ti chnh quy m ln. Kh
nng lm vic ca cc nh ti tr trong nhng mi trng
ny b cn tr bi l li ph chun v gii ngn, theo
khng nh gi cao cc hot ng quy m nh cn nhiu
nhn lc. Trc y, cc c quan thng ch trng vo tin
gii ngn v vo cc bin php thc hin mang ngha
vt cht nh hp ca cc d n "thnh cng" m h ti tr;
nhng chng c bin php no trong s cho bit c
nhiu v mc hiu qu ca vin tr. Thay vo , nh
gi v vin tr pht trin cn tp trung vo mc m cc
ngun ti chnh ng gp ci thin mi trng chnh
Do cc phng php
truyn thng tr
nn bt lc nn cc
c quan vin tr cn
phi tm ra c
nhng phng thc
thay th h tr
cho nhng quc gia
c nn kinh t b bp
mo nghim trng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
8
sch. nh gi ny cn ch trng vo mc s dng
ngun lc ca cc c quan trong vic thc y ci cch
chnh sch v thay i th ch to ra c nhng kt
qu tt hn. y khng phi l nhng cu hi d tr li,
nhng nhng nghin cu c lp ca cc c quan pht
trin - vi s tham gia ca cc nh hoch nh chnh sch
ca cc nc ang pht trin v nhng nc hng th d
n - c th gip xc nh c liu cc c quan ny ang
lm mt cng vic tt hay khng.
Mi trng quc t mi
Vin tr nc ngoi l mt hin tng ni ln sau
Chin tranh th gii th hai. Ngay t khi bt u, n c
hai mc tiu tn ti song song, nhng thc cht li mu
thun vi nhau. Mc tiu th nht l thc y tng trng
di hn v gim ngho nhng nc ang pht trin; ng
c chnh ca cc nh ti tr l kt hp gia tinh thn v tha
v mi quan tm mang tnh c nhn hn l xt v lu di
an ninh kinh t chnh tr ca h s c li khi cc nc
ngho tng trng. Mc tiu th hai l tng cng li ch
chin lc v chnh tr ngn hn ca cc nc ti tr. Vin
tr c dnh cho nhng ch l ng minh chnh tr ca
cc cng quc phng Ty ln. V vy, cc mc tiu
chin lc v mc tiu pht trin c n cha mu thun
nhng khng nht thit phi th hin ra. Hy xem xt
trng hp ca Blivia v Daia. C hai nc ny u nhn
vin tr ca M, mt phn v nhng l do chin lc, tuy
nhin kt qu li rt khc nhau. Blivia s dng cc ngun
lc tng i c hiu qu sau cc cuc ci cch vo gia
nhng nm 1980 v thp k va qua n nh v bc
u thnh cng. Daia trc y th ngc li, kh c th
nhn ra c mt li ch no trong nhng nm qua khi h
l nc nhn vin tr ch yu.
Trong nhng nm 1970 v 1980, vin tr nc ngoi t
cc nc thuc OECD tng lin tc (hnh 1)
2
. Nm 1991,
vin tr pht trin chnh thc t ti con s nh im l
69 t la (theo gi nm 1995, xem khung 1 v 2). Tuy
nhin, vo nhng nm 1990, c ba s kin lm gim
tm quan trng tuyt i v tng i ca vin tr nc
ngoi: cc vn v ngn sch cc nc OECD, chin
tranh lnh kt thc v ngun vn t nhn vo cc nc
ang pht trin tng mnh.
Vin tr gim sau
khi ln ti nh im
vo nm 1991
Hnh 1: Dng ti ch nh
vo cc nc ang
pht trin
T la nm 1995
Ngun: Ti chnh pht trin
ton cu 1998
Vn t
nhn
Ti ch nh pht
trin ch nh thc
Vin tr pht
trin ch nh thc
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
9
Trong nhng nm gn y, cc nc OECD ang phi
u tranh kim sot vic thm ht ngn sch v kim
ch vic gia tng trong chi tiu ca chnh ph. Mc d vin
tr cho nc ngoi chim mt phn rt nh ca ngn sch,
nhng n l mt trong nhng hng mc u tin phi ct
gim. Trong giai on t nm 1991 n nm 1997, tt c
cc nh ti tr ln u gim t l vin tr trong GNP ca
mnh (hnh 2). M l nc gim vin tr mnh nht, vo
nm 1997 vin tr ca nc ny ch cn chim 0,08%
GNP. Thu in v cc nc Bc u khc c truyn thng
l nhng nc ho phng cng ch ng gp 1% GNP cho
vin tr. Nhng trong s cc nc ln th Php l nc duy
nht ng gp hn 0,45%. Tu chung th nm 1997 cc
nc OECD ch ng gp c 0,22% GNP. Vic chin
tranh lnh kt thc nh hng ti quyt nh ca mt s
nc. Tm quan trng chin lc ca vin tr gim i;
do c nguy c mt i s h tr to ln ca chnh ph cc
nc ti tr.
Khung 2 T nh lng vin tr
U ban h tr pht trin ca OECD cng b
thng tin v tnh hnh vin tr ca cc thnh vin
cho cc quc gia ang pht trin - l vin tr
cng vi phn gii ngn rng ca cc khon cho
vay u i c t l khng hon li ti thiu l 20%.
Mt cch khc tnh vin tr l bc tch phn
khng hon li ra khi mi khon vay u i ri
cng vi cc khon vin tr 100% khng hon li.
Vi cch ny, Chang, Fernandez-Arias v Serven
(1998) tnh c s vin tr m 103 quc gia
nhn c (xem s liu).
C ba im ng lu v s liu mi ny. Th
nht, con s iu chnh ny dng nh thp hn
so vi cch tnh c. Th hai, hai s liu ny tng
quan cht ch vi nhau v u cho kt qu tng t
v mt phn tch kinh t lng. Hu ht vin tr l
di dng vin tr khng hon li, do cch tnh
mi ny khng nh hng nhiu lm ti cch tnh
tng th. Tc ng v mt kinh t v m ca vin
tr l nh nhau cho d s dng cch tnh lng
vin tr no i chng na (xem chng 1). Th ba,
so vi cch tnh ca OECD th s liu vin tr
iu chnh cho thy vin tr vo nhng nm 1990
gim xung rt nhiu. L do l v li sut quc
t trong nhng nm gn y thp, do vy phn vin
tr trong cc khon vay u i cng nh hn. Phn
vin tr trong khon vay vi li sut 2% c coi
l nh nu li sut quc t l 5% v c coi l ln
nu li sut quc t l 10%.
Hnh khung 2: Tng vin tr ODA v Vin
tr Ch nh thc iu chnh ca OECD
T la nm 1993
Vin tr
pht trin
chnh thc
ca OECD
Vin tr chnh thc
iu chnh
Ngun: Chang, Fernando-Arias v Serven 1998
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
10
c mt thi k vn t nhn t vo cc quc gia
ang pht trin. Vo nhng nm 1970 v 1980 ngun ti
chnh chnh thc - l tin ca cc nh ti tr song
phng v cc t chc a phng - chim khong mt na
ngun ti chnh m cc nc pht trin vo cc nc
ang pht trin (xem hnh 1). Tuy nhin, do nm 1996
ngun vn ca t nhn tng ln hn 250 t la nn
ngun ti chnh chnh thc dnh cho cc nc ang pht
trin hin ch cn chim mt phn t tng ngun ti chnh
vo.
Hnh 2: ODA so vi GNP, cc nh ti tr ch nh, 1991 v
1997
Phn trm ODA so vi GNP
Thy in Php Canada c Nht Bn Anh Italia M OECD
Ngun: Cc ch s pht trin th gii 1998
Tuy nhin, dng vn t nhn tp trung phn ln vo rt
t nc - v mt s dng vn mang tnh cht bt n. Thi
k u t t ny ca t nhn vo cui nhng nm 1970
gim xung khi khng hong n bt u xy ra vo nm
1982. t u t vn ln tip theo xy ra vo gia nhng
nm 1990, nhng khng hong ti chnh n ra ng
vo nm 1997 lm cho u t nc ngoi gim mnh.
Lng tin ca t nhn vo cc nc ang pht trin t
nm 1996 n 1997 gim 80 t la. Trong bt c
trng hp no, dng vn t nhn s tip tc vo mt s
t nc (ch yu l) c thu nhp trung bnh. Nm 1996, 26
nc nhn c 95% u t t nhn; s cn li cho 140
nc ang pht trin khc. i vi mt quc gia c thu
nhp thp in hnh, vin tr vn l ngun ti chnh ch
yu ca nc ngoi, chim ti 7-8% GNP.
Cc thnh tu pht trin vo nhng nm 1990 lm
thay i mnh mi trng cho vin tr nc ngoi. Chin
Vin tr gim xung
khp mi ni
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
11
tranh lnh chm dt m ra nhng kh nng mi: vin
tr s khng cn b hn ch bi cc mc tiu chin lc, do
n s c kh nng t hiu qu hn nhm p ng mc
tiu c bn l tng trng di hn v gim ngho.
3
Tuy
nhin, vi tnh hnh ngn sch eo hp v dng vn t nhn
gia tng cc nh ti tr r rng ang cn nhc li tm quan
trng v gi tr ca vin tr nc ngoi.
T duy mi v chin lc pht trin
Vin tr nc ngoi, mt trong nhiu cch thc y s
pht trin, cn phi ph hp vi mt chin lc tng th rng ln.
Trc y iu kin chnh tr v nim tin vo chin lc pht
trin trong nc v quc t quyt nh c cu ca cc t chc,
cc cng c v vic thc hin hot ng vin tr. Nhng nhng
nim tin ny ang thay i nhanh v ngy cng mnh m.
thi k u ca vin tr pht trin, chnh ph c
coi l tc nhn tch cc cho s thay i. Ngi ta ngh rng
ti cc nc ang pht trin, th trng khng tn ti v
khng c kh nng pht trin. Th trng quc t b lng
on do s cu kt vi ch ngha thc dn, cng nh do s
sp ca th trng hng ho v tn dng trong thi k
i suy thoi vo nhng nm 1930. nhiu nc ang
pht trin, ln sng c lp u tin to ra t tng lc
quan v nhng chnh ph mi, coi l nhng tc nhn
cho s thay i v chnh tr, x hi v kinh t. Vic chnh
ph ny vin tr cho chnh ph khc c mt l do hp
l, coi l cch tt nht thc y s pht trin.
Nu tt c cc khon
vin tr cho Dmbia
c a vo u t
mt cch hiu qu th
ngy nay nc ny
tr nn giu c.
Cc nh kinh t pht trin khng ch tin rng cc nc
ngho b km hm ch yu bi thiu ngun nhn lc v vt
lc (iu ny v vn ng) m cn tin rng ngho kh
trong nc v cc khim khuyt ca th trng quc t
khng cho cc nc ang pht trin c tip cn vi cc
ngun vn u t cn thit pht trin kinh t.
4
Vic tnh
ton yu cu v ngun ti chnh cho u t hoc ngoi
hi (hoc c hai) phc v cho mc ch tng trng ca
cc quc gia - v so snh nhng yu cu ny vi ci hin
c - nhn mnh ti quy m thiu ht cn b p. Cch
ng ph mang tnh t pht l lp ch trng bng vin tr
nc ngoi thng qua vic chuyn nhng s ngoi hi c
th u t. Nu vn ch l tin th vic lm cho ng
tin chuyn ng l mt mc tiu thch hp ca vin tr
v cc c quan vin tr th lc s ng gp ca vin tr
c th tnh bng la.
Hnh 3: Khong cch gia
m hnh v thc t
Dmbia, 1961-94
Nghn la M nm 1995
Thu nhp tnh theo u
ngi m Dmbia l ra
t c nu tt c vin tr
u c a vo u t
v nu u t l phc v
mc ch tng trng theo
m hnh hai khon thm
ht
Thu nhp tnh
theo u ngi
ca Dmbia
ANH GIA VIN TR
12
Tht ng bun, thi gian tc ng tiu cc ti t
tng lc quan tt p v cc chin lc pht trin da vo
ngun ti tr mang tnh tch lu do chnh ph khi xng.
Gi s vin tr pht trin ch cung cp ti chnh cho u t
v u t thc s ng vai tr quan trng nh cc m hnh
trc d on, th trong trng hp ny vin tr dnh
cho Dmbia l ra phi l ngun ti chnh to ra s tng
trng nhanh, y thu nhp bnh qun u ngi ln trn
20.000 la, trong khi trn thc t thu nhp u ngi vn
dng mc khong 600 la (hnh 3). Hai mi nm qua
chng kin s sp ca cc nn kinh t k hoch ho
tp trung, s tr tr ca cc m hnh thay th nhp khu
hng u ca nhng nm 1970 (Mhic v Braxin) v tht
bi kinh t xy ra trn phm vi rng khp (nu khng ni
l s tan r hon ton) ca chu Phi sau khi ginh c c
lp, chu lc ny theo ui chin lc do nh nc khi
xng
5
. Hai mi nm qua cng c chng kin cnh
mc thu nhp v xut khu ca cc nn kinh t ng
tng ngon mc - trc tin l Hn Quc, i Loan (Trung
Quc), Hng Cng (hin c tr v cho Trung Quc)
v Xingapo, sau l Thi Lan, Malaixia, Innsia v sau
hng lot cc cuc ci cch quan trng l Trung Quc; vic
Chil ni ln nh mt nn kinh t M Latinh nng ng
nht v s phc hi gn y ca cc quc gia khc; v
nhng thnh cng gt hi c chu Phi, nh Btxoana
v Mrix. Thc t cho thy hon ton c th pht trin
nhanh, nhng phi da vo th trng v vo mt nh nc
hiu qu ng vai tr quan trng trong vic h tr ch
khng phi thng tr nn kinh t.
Ngun: Easterly 1997
Bi vy, c ba giai on nhn nhn s pht trin khc
nhau. giai on u, khim khuyn th trng c xem
nh xy ra trn quy m ton din v ph bin, cn chnh
ph th c coi l gii php duy nht cha tt c nhng
cn bnh ny. giai on th hai tng i ngn ny th
tht bi ca chnh ph c coi l hin tng ph bin v
ton din, cn th trng nu khng phi l gii php th
cng l hy vng duy nht. Quan im th ba nh hin nay -
mang tnh thc dng nhng khng tho mn v mt l
lun - l ch c th trng v chnh ph u gp phi
nhng tht bi ln nhng thng khng mang tnh ton
din. iu ny mun nhn mnh rng chnh ph nn ch
trng vo nhng lnh vc m cc vn tr nn trm trng
nht khi thiu s can thip, nhng chnh ph phi c
nng lc ci thin tnh hnh. Chng ta cn cng nhn
Mt chng trnh ngh
s rng ln hn ra i
cng vi chin lc
mi
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
13
c hn ch v u th ca th trng, cng nh bt li v
thun li ca vic chnh ph can thip nhm sa cha cc
khim khuyt ca th trng (Stiglitz, 1989, tr. 202).
Chin lc pht trin ni ln t quan im ny l chin
lc hai mc tiu - thc thi cc chnh sch nh hng th
trng, thc y tng trng (mi trng kinh t v m n
nh, lut php hiu qu, t do ho thng mi, v.v..) v
bo m vic cung cp cc dch v cng cng quan trng
m th trng t nhn khng th cung cp mt cch chu
o v cng bng. Cc nc ang pht trin c cc c quan
nh nc cht lng cao v cc chnh sch ph hp tng
trng nhanh hn nhiu so vi nhng nc khng c
nhng yu t -thu nhp tnh theo u ngi tng 2,7%
so vi mc -0,5% (khung 3). Ni mt cch n gin,
nhng tht bi trong hoch nh chnh sch, xy dng th
ch v cung cp cc dch v cng cng tr thnh ro cn
i vi pht trin cn trm trng hn so vi vic thiu vn.
Cng vi chin lc mi, mt chng trnh ngh s rng
ln hn cng ra i. Pht trin trc y tp trung vo
vic tng thu nhp u ngi. Nhng trn thc t, cc quc
gia ang pht trin li quan tm ti nhng ci thin rng hn
v mt cht lng cuc sng - thu nhp cao hn, ng vy,
nhng ng thi cng phi gim ngho, tng cng sc
kho, nng cao trnh vn ho v pht trin bn vng mi
trng. Chng trnh ngh s mi c th hin trong nhng
mc tiu do cng ng cc nh ti tr ra, c tham kho
kin ca i tc l cc quc gia ang pht trin:
Ti nm 2015 gim mt na s ngi sng trong tnh
trng ngho kh cng cc.
Ti nm 2015 ph cp gio dc tiu hc tt c cc quc
gia.
Ti nm 2005 t tin b trong vn bnh ng v gii
v quyn lc ca ph n bng cch xo b s chnh lch
v gii trong gio dc tiu hc v trung hc.
Ti nm 2015 gim hai phn ba t l t vong tr s
sinh v tr em di 5 tui v ba phn t t l t vong
khi sinh n.
Trc nm 2015, thng qua h thng chm sc sc
kho ban u to iu kin cho tt c ph n v ch
em ang trong tui sinh c tip cn mc ti
a vi cc dch v y t lin quan n vn sinh n.
Ti nm 2005 thc hin cc chin lc quc gia v
pht trin bn vng tt c cc nc nhm bo m
ngun lc mi trng b mt i c ti to tng
ANH GIA VIN TR
14
quc gia v trn ton cu cho ti nm 2015.
Khung 3 nh ngha v c ch qun l tt:
ch nh sch v th ch
Qun l tt bao gm cc th ch v chnh sch
dn ti s pht trin nhanh v gim c ngho
kh mt t nc no . Cc nc ang pht
trin rt ra c nhng chnh sch tt v khng
tt t chnh kinh nghim ca h v h hc hi ln
nhau. Vic qun l tt kh nhng khng phi l
khng th o lng c bng cch s dng mt
s ch s thay th.
Hnh khung 3: Cc th ch, ch nh sch v
tng trng
T l tng trng hng nm so vi GDP thc t t nh
theo u ngi
Chnh sch kinh t Cht lng th ch
Cao
Thp
Thp
Cao
Ngun: Burnside v Dollar 1998.
Ch s v chnh sch kinh t s dng trong hnh
khung 3 kt hp ba yu t nu trong cc nghin
cu thc tin phn nh tnh hnh tng trng ca
cc nc ang pht trin: lm pht, thng d ngn
sch, v m ca thng mi, nh Sachs v Warner
tnh c (1995). Mt nc vi cc chnh sch
khng ph hp s c t l lm pht cao, mt cn i
ngn sch ln v ch thng mi ng (Nicaragoa
vo nhng nm 1980 chng hn). Mt v d v quc
gia c chnh sch kinh t ph hp l Ugana vo
gia nhng nm 1990.
Vic o lng cht lng th ch bao gm mt
nh gi v sc mnh ca h thng php quyn, cht
lng ca b my hnh chnh Nh nc v mc
ph bin ca tham nhng. Nh khng hong 1997-
1998 cho thy, Innsia l nc c cht lng th
ch km. Btxoana l mt v d khc c cht lng
th ch cao.
Khi cc nh ti tr c nhiu n lc h tr cho
c ch qun l tt, h thng mun m rng cch
tnh ny ch khng hn ch cc ch s v th ch
v kinh t v m nh trnh by y. V d,
nhng n lc nhm ci thin h thng gio dc v y
t l rt quan trng thc y thnh cng.V s h
tr t pha chnh ph cho vic m rng v nghin
cu nng nghip v cho cc n lc on kt cng
ng c mt ng gp quan trng cho thnh cng
ca ng (Ishikawa 1960, 1978). im chung
y l nh ngha v qun l tt c c kt t
nhng kinh nghim thc tin ca cc nc ang pht
trin.
Nhng mc tiu ny c chi tit ho trong bo co
Kin to th k XXI: Vai tr ca hp tc pht trin ca U
ban hp tc pht trin (khung 4).
Tt c iu ny mun ni ti mt vai tr khc ca vin
tr. Vin tr pht trin ch trng ch yu vo vic h tr
cho cc th ch v cc chnh sch ph hp ch khng phi
cp vn. D nhin tin cng l mt vn quan trng
nhng vin tr hiu qu phi mang li c ti chnh ln
tng - v mt trong nhng iu ct li l tm ra c s
kt hp ng n cho c hai nhm gii quyt nhng tnh
hung v vn khc nhau.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
15
Khung 4 Chc nng ca U ban h tr pht
trin
T khi thnh lp nm 1960, U ban h tr pht
trin (DAC) ca OECD hot ng vi t cch l
mt c quan chnh yu ca cc nh ti tr song
phng ln c chc nng ra chnh sch, chin
lc v nh gi kt qu thc hin.
Cc chng trnh vin tr song phng khng
c xem xt v thc hin trong mt mi trng phi
chnh tr. ng vy, chng phi chu p lc ng k
t pha cc nhm c quyn li chnh tr v thng
mi khc nhau ti cc nc ti tr. V cc c quan
ti tr song phng c th phi tun theo nhng loi
ng lc ly gii ngn lm mc tiu nh cc ngn
hng pht trin a phng lm, khuyn khch
nhn vin ca mnh ch trng ti khi lng ph
duyt ch khng phi ti kt qu ca chng trnh.
S quan tm ca cc c quan ny vo vic ging
cao l quc k ca mnh nhng d n pht trin
cng c th nhiu hn so vi vic phi hp nhng n
lc ci thin khu vc tp th m sng kin ca cc
nh ti tr xut.
DAC l din n ni cc nh ti tr ln ngi vi
nhau bn bc gi cho cc chng trnh ca h i
ng mc tiu pht trin, nhm tng cng s hp
tc v nh gi mc hiu qu ca vin tr. C ba
nm th n lt mt thnh vin ca DAC c cc
thnh vin khc trong U ban xem xt li chnh sch
v kt qu thc hin vin tr ca mnh, trn c s
nhng nghin cu do nhn vin ca OECD thc hin
v hai thanh tra vin c bit c b nhim t U
ban lm trng nhm. T nm 1994, cc nh gi
hp tc pht trin ny, k c cc kt lun ca DAC
c cng b.
Trong thp k ri qua, DAC h thng ho
v xut bn mt b hon chnh v Cc nguyn tc
vin tr c hiu qu. Nhng hng dn v v d
tt nht ny cp nhng nh hng chnh sch
ch yu v cc vn vn hnh trong nhng lnh
vc chnh ca qun l vin tr nh vn iu phi,
h tr d n, h tr chng trnh, h tr k thut,
mua sm v nh gi - cng nh cc kha cnh c
bn ca pht trin nh s tham gia v iu hnh tt,
mi trng v s bnh ng v gii.
Nhm nh gi vin tr hin ti ca DAC
tp hp c nhng ngi ng u ca cc b
phn nh gi trong cc c quan pht trin song
phng v a phng xem xt v nng lc
nh gi cc nc ang pht trin.
cp chin lc, nm 1996 DAC cho
ra i bn bo co, Kin to th k XXI: Vai tr
ca hp tc pht trin, xy dng c s cho s hp
tc, ch yu t bc tin cho s pht trin: v
pha cc quc gia ang pht trin l s cam kt
mnh m cho mt mi trng chnh sch hiu qu
v cc u tin pht trin ch yu nhm mc ch
cho tng trng u tin ngi ngho; cn v pha
cc nh ti tr l vic tng cng s h tr v mt
ti chnh cho nhng chnh sch lin quan ti vn
chng trnh v mc ngn sch ng thi nhn
mnh ti yu t tham gia v xy dng nng lc
(to iu kin cho chuyn giao kin thc v
tng)
Ngun: Thng tin do nhn vin DAC cung cp.
Tin cng quan trng - trong mt mi trng ch nh sch tt
Bi vy, vi t duy mi v pht trin th iu g l quan
trng i vi tng trng di hn? Mi trng kinh t v m
n nh, ch thng mi m ca v quyn s hu c
bo h, cng nh b my hnh chnh cng hiu qu c th
m ng vic cung cp cc dch v nh gio dc, y t v
cc dch v khc. Khi cc nc ang pht trin c c ch
qun l tt th h tr ti chnh s c tc ng ln ti tng
trng v vn gim ngho, ci thin cc ch s x hi sao
cho chng vt ln trn mc m vic qun l tt t n c th
to ra. Cng bng m ni, vin tr t tc ng ti s pht
trin ca nhng quc gia c trnh qun l ti. Vin tr ch
Vin tr c tc ng
ln hn khi cc quc
gia c c ch qun
l tt.
ANH GIA VIN TR
16
c tc ng lu di trong mi trng lnh mnh cho u t
hiu qu v pht trin ngun nhn lc. Bng chng c th
ly t ba ngun - cc nghin cu lin quc gia, nghin cu
thnh cng v tht bi ca cc d n u t do Ngn hng
Th gii ti tr v cc nghin cu tnh hung v mc hiu
qu ca vin tr.
Rt t nghin cu lin quc gia chng minh c rng
vin tr c tc ng mnh m ti tng trng. Tuy nhin,
tnh hnh s i khc, nu cc quc gia c chia theo trnh
qun l. Ni chung, vin tr c tc ng ln trong nhng
mi trng qun l tt: 1% GDP vin tr dn n mc tng
trng bn vng tng ng vi 0,5% GDP. Mt s nc
c c ch qun l tt ch nhn c khon vin tr nh
nhng t tc tng trng mc 2,2% tnh theo u
ngi. Tuy nhin, vi nhng nc va qun l tt va c
nhiu vin tr th tc tng trng cn nhanh hn nhiu -
3,7% tnh theo u ngi (hnh 4). i vi nhng nc c
c ch qun l ti th khng c s khc bit nh vy. Nc
nhn t vin tr cng nh nc nhn nhiu vin tr u tng
trng mt cch chm chp (nu c tng mt cht). S dng
nhng bin s khc khng lm thay i tnh hnh.
Tc ng ca vin tr khng ch dng s tng trng.
quc gia c c ch qun l tt, 1% GDP vin tr s lm
gim 1% ngho kh. Vin tr c tc ng tng t i vi t
l t vong tr s sinh, nhng phi c c ch qun l hiu
qu.
Bi hc cui cng rt ra t nhng nghin cu lin quc
gia l vi c ch qun l tt, vin tr s pht huy tc dng
cng vi ngun vn ca t nhn. C th l 1% GDP vin tr
s to thm 1,9% GDP u t t nhn. Ni cch khc, vin
tr cho nhng nc c c ch qun l tt s cng c nim tin
ca khu vc t nhn v gp phn h tr cho cc dch v
cng cng quan trng. Khng cn phi cp nhng
nhng nc qun l ti, vin tr s loi tr u t t nhn.
Cn c nhiu bng chng hn na v mi quan h gia
vin tr, qun l v pht trin c ly t cc nghin cu v
thnh cng v tht bi ca cc d n u t cng cng do
Ngn hng Th gii ti tr - chng hn, v ng s, in v
gio dc. Ti cc quc gia c s qun l kinh t v m tt v
cc th ch nh nc hiu qu, 86% cc d n l thnh cng
vi t l hon vn cao hn nhiu. Ti nhng quc gia c h
thng chnh sch v th ch yu km, con s tng ng ch
t c 48% (hnh 5).
Nghin cu tnh hung v hiu qu ca vin tr a
ra nhng kt lun tng t. Ln na, hy xem xt mt s so
Hnh 4: Tng trng GDP
t nh theo u ngi
cc quc gia c thu nhp
thp nhng c c ch
qun l kinh t tt
T l tng trng hng nm
Vin tr nhiu Vin tr t
Ngun: Burnside v Dollar
1998.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
17
snh trc y: vai tr quan trng ca vin tr i vi
Blivia sau ci cch, c so vi tnh trng vin tr phi hiu
qu trn lan Nicaragoa, chnh sch ca nc ny sut
nhng nm 1980 u km hiu qu; hoc vin tr vi hiu
qu cao cho Btxoana (mt trong nhng quc gia c chnh
sch v th ch tt nht) so vi nhiu tht bi Tandania.
Hnh 5: Kt qu thc hin d n theo mi trng ch nh sch
v th ch
Cc d n t yu cu
(phn trm so vi tng s)
Cht lng th ch
Cao
Thp
Thp
Cao
Chnh sch kinh t
Ngun: Ngn hng Th gii 1997a.
Vi cc ch nh sch
v th ch tt hn
cc d n cng c
thc hin tt hn.
Mc d vic minh ho rt ra c mt s khc bit c
bn gia qun l kinh t tt v qun l ti l cn thit nhng
cc ch chnh sch trn thc t nm gia hai thi cc
ny. Nhiu nc ang pht trin ri vo vng xm gia qun
l tt v qun l ti. T nhng pht hin ny, nhn xt chnh
rt ra khng phi l ti chnh ch nn vo nhng nc
c qun l tt m chng ti xut vin tr nn c
phn b trn c s mc ngho kh v c ch qun l kinh
t. i vi cc quc gia c mc ngho kh nh nhau nhng
ch chnh sch khc nhau th ti chnh nn phn b nhiu
hn cho cc quc gia c c ch qun l tt.
Vic phn b ngun vin tr trn thc t thng chu
tc ng bi quyn li chin lc ca cc nh ti tr. Mc
d hnh vi ti tr khc nhau, nhng ton b s vin tr
song phng u c xu hng vo cc nc thuc a
ANH GIA VIN TR
18
trc y v cc ng minh chnh tr nhiu hn so vi cc
nn kinh t m hay dn ch. Mt quc gia phi dn ch
nhng trc y l thuc a nhn c vin tr gp
khong hai ln so vi mt quc gia dn ch nhng khng
phi l thuc a v cng ng nh vy i vi mt quc
gia ng ca trc kia l thuc a so vi mt quc gia m
ca nhng khng phi l thuc a (hnh 6). Kt qu l
phn ln vin tr song phng u vo nhng nc c
c ch qun l ti. ng vy, cc quc gia qun l ti nhn
c khon vin tr song phng gn bng vi cc quc
gia qun l tt (khi i chng thu nhp tnh theo u ngi
v dn s).
Tng hp cc dng vin tr ca cc nh ti tr li vi
nhau s lm lu m tiu ch phn b vin tr. cc nc
Bc u, cc bin s mang tnh chin lc - nh vic trc
kia l thuc a hay ch biu quyt ca Lin hp quc -
hu nh chng ng vai tr g trong vic phn b. Vin tr
ca cc nc Bc u nhm vo cc quc gia ngho nht,
u tin cc nn kinh t m v dn ch. Vin tr a phng
hng ng hn so vi vin tr song phng cho cc
quc gia c c ch qun l tt, mc d vn cn ci thin
nhiu. Ni chung, khi c a vo cc nc ngho nhng
qun l tt th vin tr thc y tng trng v gim ngho
hiu qu hn. Vin tr thm 10 t la na s cu gip cho
25 triu ngi thot khi cnh ngho kh hng nm - nu
vin tr ny l cho cc quc gia c c ch qun l tt. Nu
tri li, cho d vin tr tt c cc lnh vc tng ln cng
ch cu c 7 triu ngi thot khi ngho kh.
C hai l do hy vng rng vin tr nc ngoi trong
tng lai c th c phn b hiu qu hn. Th nht, chin
tranh lnh kt thc, p lc phi vin tr cho cc ng minh
chin lc khng cn ln nh trc na. Vo u nhng nm
1990, vin tr gim mt cch khng khip mt vi nn
kinh t c chnh sch b bp mo nghim trng (nh
Mianma, Nigiria, Daia). Th hai, xu hng ci cch kinh t
lan rng trn phm vi ton th gii cc quc gia ang
pht trin. Do vy, ngy cng nhiu nc ngho ban hnh
nhng chnh sch tng i tt. tipia, n , Ugana v
Vit Nam chng hn, c s dn ln v nhiu ngi ngho,
nhng trong nhng nm qua c rt nhiu n lc ci cch
kinh t. Vin tr nhm vo nhng nc ci cch c thu nhp
thp ny c th c tc ng ln ti tng trng v gim
ngho. V vy nn phn ln ti chnh khng th c s dng
hiu qu nu cc nc cha tin hnh ci cch. Trong nhng
mi trng b bp mo nghim trng, cc nh ti tr cn
Vic trc y l
thuc a s thu ht
c nhiu vin tr
hn so vi vic c
ch nh sch hp l.
Hnh 6: Vin tr song
phng v quan h
thuc a
la theo u ngi
Km dn
ch hn
Dn ch
hn
Trc y l
thuc a
Trc y khng
phi l thuc a
ng ca
M ca
Trc y l
thuc a
Trc y khng
phi l thuc a
Ngun: Alesina v Dollar 1998
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
19
tm ra nhng cng c khc h tr cho s pht trin.
Vin tr c th lm b cho cc ch nh sch tt
Ngoi vic cung cp tin, vin tr nc ngoi cn phi
thc y cc chnh sch ph hp v gip pht trin cc th
ch. Cc ti liu gn y cho thy ci cch chnh sch nu
khng kh khn v mt k thut (n nh ho v t do ho
thng mi) c th tng thm 2-3% cho tng trng cc
nc ang pht trin. Do mc tng trng bnh qun ca
nhng nc ny ch t 1% tnh theo u ngi nn y s
l mt s ci thin ln.
Mc tiu ca phn ln vin tr pht trin l y nhanh
ci cch chnh sch v kt qu thu c c c thnh cng ln
tht bi. Nhng ci cch nh vy ph thuc phn nhiu vo
cc yu t chnh v x hi trong nc, m nhng yu t ny
ngi bn ngoi kh m tc ng. Nhng nhng ni no
vin tr pht trin dnh cho nhng nc c chnh sch b
bp mo nghim trng thc y c ci cch chnh sch th
kha cnh phi ti chnh ca vin tr thng l yu t quan
trng. Do , cc nh ti tr c th i u trong vic thc
y ci cch chnh sch trong nhng mi trng kh khn
m khng mu thun vi khuyn ngh u tin: cp nhiu
tin hn cho nhng nc thc hin ci cch chnh sch hiu
qu. Trong nhng mi trng chnh sch ngho nn, tng
quan trng hn tin.
Kh c th o lng c mt s cch thc thc y
quan trng nht ca vin tr nc ngoi i vi ci cch
chnh sch. Vo nhng nm 1990, trn khp th gii din ra
xu th t do ho kinh t v vic tuyn truyn v nhng
tng chnh sch tt ca cc c quan pht trin chc chn
pht huy tc dng. Cc nh ti tr v cc t chc cng ng
vai tr quan trng trong vic o to cc nh hoch nh
chnh sch nc ngoi. Nhm cu sinh vin Berkeley,
tc gi ca hng lot cc chnh sch ci cch Innsia
vo nhng nm 1970, l mt v d c nhc n nhiu ln.
Nhiu cuc ci cch y n tng M Latinh vo nhng
nm 1980 v 1990 c khi xng bi cc chnh tr gia v
cc quan chc c o to ln trnh cao. Mt phn
ngun ti chnh ca hot ng o to ny c ly t vin
tr.
Mt s n lc ch c th c tc dng trong di hn. Vo
u nhng nm 1990, chng hn, Ngn hng Th gii
pht ng chin dch gio dc qun chng Ucraina nhm
khuy ng cuc tranh lun v ci cch kinh t trong x hi
dn s. Ucraina phi c c nhng chnh sch thc s hp
Ci cch ch nh
sch ph thuc phn
ln vo cc yu t
ch nh tr v x hi
trong nc.
ANH GIA VIN TR
20
l nhng s h tr cho gio dc qung i cng c th
khng t c thnh cng ln. Kh c th xc nh c
mt cch chnh xc nh hng ca vic truyn b kin thc,
gio dc cc quan chc v khuyn khch tranh lun trong
cng chng. Tuy nhin, cc nghin cu tnh hung cho thy
chng u ng vai tr quan trng c c mt chng
trnh ci cch thnh cng.
Mt cch thc y ci cch chnh sch nhanh hn thng
qua vin tr l t iu kin ti tr, bt buc p dng mt s
chnh sch nht nh -phng php tip cn m Qu Tin t
quc t (IMF) v Ngn hng Th gii p dng kh lu.
Cc kt qu cha bao gi ng nht vi nhau. Trong nhiu
trng hp, cc bin php chnh sch khng c tin
hnh, tuy nhin, vn vay vn c gii ngn. Khong mt
phn ba khon vay iu chnh ca Ngn hng Th gii
khng t c mc tiu ci cch : ci cch chnh sch
him khi thnh cng tr khi chnh ph thc s b thuyt
phc rng cn phi ci cch v coi chng trnh ci cch l
ca chnh bn thn mnh (Ngn hng Th gii 1997a,
tr.37). Mc d nhng nm 1990 c nhng bin chuyn v
mt kt qu, nhng vn cn tip tc t nhiu tin b hn
na - kt hp bi hc kinh nghim va qua ca ng .
Mt nghin cu gn y pht hin ra rng thnh cng
(hay tht bi) ca nhng khon cho vay iu chnh hu nh
c th on trc c ch yu bng cch xem xt cc c
im chnh tr v th ch ni bt ca mt quc gia, k c vic
liu lnh t ca nc c c bu mt cch dn ch hay
khng v chnh ph nm c quyn hnh trong bao lu. i
vi mt chnh ph ci cch mi ln nm quyn th kh nng
thnh cng ln hn so vi chnh ph c on nm quyn
hnh lu (hnh 7). Ni chung, cc chnh ph mi, k c
nhng chnh ph mi ni ln sau xung t, thng tin hnh
ci cch vi t l thnh cng cao v l cc ng c vin xng
ng c h tr. Nghin cu ny cng cho thy rng cc
bin s thuc s kim sot ca Ngn hng Th gii nh s
lng cc iu kin hay ngun lc cho cng tc chun b v
gim st, khng c tc ng ng k ti kh nng thnh cng
hay tht bi ca ci cch.
ngha: vic p t iu kin c th khng mang li ci
cch lu bn nu trong nc khng c ng thi mnh m
cho s thay i. Khi cc khu vc c tri trong nc cam kt
ci cch, cc khon cho vay iu chnh v vin tr nc
ngoi c th gip thng nht cc thnh tu v mt chnh
sch bng ba cch. Th nht, cho vay c iu kin l cch
thc mt chnh ph ch trng ci cch c th cng khai
Cc ch nh ph mi
ln nm quyn ho
hng ci cch hn.
Hnh 7: Bu c, nhim
k, v kh nng ci cch
thnh cng
Kh nng thnh cng (%)
S nm nm quyn
c bu
Khng c bu
Ngun: Dollar v Svensson 1998.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
21
cam kt thc hin cc bin php chnh sch. Th hai, a ra
iu kin chnh l pht tn hiu thng bo cho khu vc t
nhn bit rng chng trnh ci cch l ng tin cy v iu
ny s khuyn khch cc nh u t hng ng nhanh hn.
Th ba, vin tr thc y tng trng trong mt mi trng
chnh sch tt. Bi vy, nu cc ci cch thc y nhanh v
ci thin c mi trng chnh sch th h tr ti chnh s
pht huy nhiu tc dng, i li iu s gip tng cng
s h tr v mt chnh tr i vi ci cch. y l kt lun
rt ra t nh gi v tm nc ci cch thnh cng trong giai
on sau chin tranh (Sachs 1994). Sachs nhn xt rng
trong tt c cc trng hp ny cc chnh ph hon ton
cam kt ci cch nhng vin tr kp thi ca nc ngoi
ng vai tr quan trng. Ci m vin tr lm l "gip
cc chnh ph c chnh sch tt ny tn ti c thi
gian gii quyt vn " (tr. 512). Cc nh ti tr dn dn
nhn thc c bi hc ny v thc t cho thy h thn
trng hn khi vin tr trn c s chnh sch: trong giai on
1990-1995, t l thnh cng ca cc khon cho vay iu
chnh ca Ngn hng Th gii ln ti 76%, so vi 67% trc
nm 1990 (Ngn hng Th gii, 1997a).
Do , h tr cho ci cch chnh sch, vic kt hp
cung cp mt cch kp thi cc tng v ti chnh ng vai
tr quan trng cho s h tr hiu qu. Ti nhng nc khng
c phong tro ci cch, cc nh ti tr c th nui dng
chng thng qua cc cng trnh nghin cu, cc hot ng
o to v h tr k thut. Nhng h tr phi ti chnh
cng vn rt quan trng khi phong tro ci cch pht trin
v cc k hoch ci cch c cng c. Thi im cung cp
ti chnh trn quy m ln cng cn phi chnh xc. Nu
cung cp qu sm th s khi u ca mt chng trnh cht
ch c th b ph v v ngun ti chnh c th khng c
tc ng my ti tng trng. Nu cung cp qu mun th c
hi s qua i - l dp pht huy nh hng ca ci cch i
vi tng trng v gip cng c c ch chnh sch. Trong
vn quyt nh thi gian, cc nh ti tr phi theo di tin
trnh ci cch, cng nh nhng iu kin c bn ci cch
thnh cng (chnh ph mi thng c chng hn). t iu
kin rng buc cng cn thit - cho php chnh ph cam
kt vi ci cch v to tn hiu thng bo v mc nghim
tc ca ci cch - nhng c th hiu qu cn phi nhn
mnh mt vi bin php thc s quan trng.
Mt la vin tr s
lm cho u t cng
cng tng ng
bng lng m bt
k mt ng la
no ca ngn sch
nh nc to ra.
Hnh 8: u t cng cng
t mt la ca doanh
thu t thu hay vin tr
pht trin ch nh thc
Mc tng ca u t cng cng
(cent)
Doanh thu t thu ODA
Ngun: Feyzioglu, Swaroop
v Zhu 1998.
ANH GIA VIN TR
22
Tin cng quan trng - trong mt mi trng th ch tt
Thnh phn v mc hiu qu ca chi tiu cng cng
nh hng ti c tng trng ln gim ngho. Mc d vic
nh nc cung cp mt s dch v l cn thit nhng trong
nhng dch v khc th s tham gia ca nh nc tt nht
l mc trung lp -s can thip ny i khi lm mo m
nn kinh t v lm mt i s quan tm v ngun lc dnh
cho cc nhim v cp bch hn ca khu vc nh nc. Mc
d hu ht vin tr nc ngoi u dnh cho cc d n u
t c th nhng ci bn thy cha chc l ci bn nhn
c. Trong nhiu trng hp, ngun ti chnh pht trin
mang tnh bt phn nh. V d, mc d mc tiu ca hu
ht cc khon vin tr l nhm trang tri cc chi ph u t
nhng cc con s c tnh cho thy tc ng rng ca mt
ng la vin tr s lm cho u t cng cng ch tng
c 29 cent - hon ton bng vi lng m bt c ng
la ngn sch no cng to ra c (hnh 8). Tng t,
mt la vin tr c s dng ti tr cho cc d n
gio dc c xu hng lm tng chi tiu ca chnh ph
mi lnh vc, ngang vi mc mt la ca chnh ph thu t
bt c mt ngun no.
Nu vin tr mang tnh bt phn nh th tc ng ca
vin tr bng tin v vin tr bng tng cn phi
c nh gi mt cch ring bit. Tnh bt phn nh c
ngha l mt chnh ph c th s dng cc ngun lc b
sung tu theo s la chn ca chnh ph - tng chi
tiu, b p phn thu gim, hay gim thm ht ngn sch.
Mc hiu qu ca ti chnh ph thuc vo cht lng
ca tt c cc u t v chi tiu cng cng, ch khng ch
n gin ph thuc vo cc khu vc v d n nhn vin tr.
Pht hin ny c ngha quan trng i vi vic qun l v
nh gi vin tr. Cc c quan thng ly t l thnh cng
ca cc d n n l lm thc o hiu qu ca h. Thot
nhn, cch ny dng nh tp trung vo vn cht
lng nhng c th dn ti nhng bin php khuyn khch
mo m, l thuc vo tiu ch nh gi thnh cng. V tin
thng mang tnh bt phn nh c nn t l hon vn
ca bt k mt d n nhn ti tr no cng khng cho thy
tc ng thc cht ca vin tr. Hn th na, nu cc t
chc c nh gi ch yu da trn t l thnh cng ca
cc d n (c xc nh theo ngha hp, khng tnh ti
phn li ch ngoi hin) th cc nh qun l s trnh n
nhng d n ri ro, i mi m ch mun thc hin ci m
h bit. T l hon vn ph thuc vo mc hiu qu ni
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
23
chung ca chi tiu cng cng. Ngoi ra, cn c mt cu
hi quan trng l d n c thc hin khc i nh th
no khi c v khng c s ti tr.
Mt khi tnh bt phn nh c cng nhn th vic
la chn mc vin tr v cng c vin tr i hi phi c s
hiu bit v cht lng qun l tng th i vi khu vc
cng. Nhng lm th no nh gi c c cu v mc
hiu qu ca chi tiu cng cng? Cc chnh ph cn phi cn
nhc trong chi tiu, lun lun lu ti tc ng rng ca chi
tiu b sung cho tng trng v gim ngho. V iu ph
thuc vo ci m khu vc t nhn s cung ng khi khng c
nh nc. Qu nhiu nc ang pht trin dng ngn sch
chi cho cc hot ng khng c tim nng tng trng v
khng c tc ng ti ngho kh: cc doanh nghip nh nc
phi hiu qu v lng ph, tr cp nhin liu, in cho tng lp
trung lu v hn th na phn ln tr cp l cho ngi giu,
v d nh tr cp tn dng v gio dc i hc min ph.
Thm vo , mc hiu qu ca chi tiu cng cng cng
khng km phn quan trng nh c cu ca chi tiu cng
cng. Nn nh gi chnh ph khng ch kha cnh h chi
tiu bao nhiu m cn kha cnh h thc hin c bao
nhiu.
Nhng quc gia c khu vc nh nc cung cp cc dch
v hiu qu v cht lng cao l nhng ng c vin hng u
c nhn khon vin tr ti chnh ln v mt phn nn
di dng h tr chung cho ngn sch. Cch tip cn ny
cng nhn tnh bt phn nh l mt thc t v tit kim c
chi ph phn b vin tr (i vi c nc nhn vin tr v
nc vin tr). Cc nghin cu v vin tr nc ngoi trong
mt thi gian di ch ra s phi hp khng tt gia cc
nh ti tr v gnh nng n gy ra cho cc nc ang pht
trin. Ti tr nhiu hn na theo hnh thc h tr chung cho
ngn sch s loi b c vn ny.
Nhng quc gia c
khu vc nh nc
cung cp cc dch v
hiu qu v cht
lng cao l nhng
ng c vin hng u
c nhn khon
vin tr ti ch nh ln
Nh lu , nhiu quc gia c thu nhp thp ri vo
vng xm gia qun l tt v qun l ti. V v mt k thut
th vic tin hnh cc ci cch kinh t v m v thng mi
d dng hn so vi vic cng c cc th ch (chng hn b
my cng v v nh nc php quyn) nn nhng nc ny
thng c cc chnh sch kinh t v m tng i tt nhng
cung cp cc dch v li khng c hiu qu. Do vy, cn
phi tng cng h tr hn na cho vic xy dng ch ch
v tin hnh ci cch nhng khu vc khc nhau - nhiu
tng hn, t tin i. Phn ti chnh ln hn nn vo cc
d n c gi tr gia tng c tnh bng mc ng gp
ca qu trnh thit k v thc hin d n vo vic ci thin
Cc nh ti tr nn
sn sng ct gim
ti ch nh dnh cho
cc nc c khu vc
nh nc hot ng
km hiu qu trin
min.
ANH GIA VIN TR
24
kt qu hot ng ca cc khu vc .
Cui cng, cc nh ti tr nn sn sng ct gim ti
chnh dnh cho cc nc c khu vc nh nc hot ng
km hiu qu trin min. Mc d vic ngng cung cp ti
chnh khng phi l d dng nhng nhng n lc phi
hp vi khu vc nh nc km cht lng c th s chng
lm c iu g c gi tr hoc lu bn. Vin tr ca cc
nh ti tr trong nhng trng hp ny nn hng vo
gim vic cung cp ti chnh v tng cng cc hot ng
v lu di c th t nn mng cho ci cch th ch v
chnh sch mt ln na quay tr li vi cc tng, vi
mt lng ti chnh va lm cho cc tng tr
thnh hin thc. im chung y l cc mi trng quc
gia khc nhau i hi cc cng c h tr khc nhau.
Vin tr c th lm b cho cc th ch hiu qu
Nhiu dch v cng cng quan trng - chng hn nh
phn ln c s h tng c bn - kh (hoc khng th) phn b
thng qua th trng. Nhng cc c tnh kinh t lm cho nh
nc tr thnh ng c vin cung cp cc dch v ny cng
gy tr ngi khi thit k cc th ch v chnh sch khuyn
khch khu vc nh nc hot ng hiu qu. Mt thch thc
ln i vi vn pht trin t nm 2000 tr i l lm cho
cc chnh ph lm tt chc nng m h ng phi lm.
Vin tr vi thit k tt c th gip cho cc t chc nh
nc hot ng hiu qu v qun l tt bng cch gip tin
hnh th nghim, hc hi, truyn b v thc hin nhng
tng mi trong lnh vc cung cp dch v. ni no c
nhu cu cn thay i th vin tr c th c ng gp ln,
thng l qua cc d n. Nh cp, yu t ti chnh
ca mt d n khng nht thit gn lin vi mt ngnh c
th bi v thu ngn sch ca chnh ph mang tnh bt phn
nh. Do vy, mc tiu chnh ca cc d n phi l h tr
ci cch th ch v chnh sch ca ngnh v ch ra phng
hng mi t c kt qu pht trin.
iu kin v lch s, php l, chnh tr v kinh t lm
cho mi nc c hon cnh c th - v thng i hi
phi c nhng kin thc mi. Vin tr c th gip cc
chnh ph rt ra cc bi hc t chnh bn thn mnh, hay t
kinh nghim ca quc t v to iu kin cho vic tin
hnh th nghim v quan trng hn c l nh gi. Cc d
n vin tr c th h tr cc quc gia ci thin hot ng
cho ton b cc khu vc kinh t ca mnh.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
25
ng tic l vin tr i khi li gy ra mt phn rc ri.
Vin tr trc y hu nh ch dnh cho (hoc chuyn qua)
chnh quyn trung ng v tc ng ti cch thc cung
cp cc dch v cng cng. Mc d mt s chnh quyn a
phng c th cung cp cc dch v hiu qu hn nhng
cc nc ang pht trin c xu hng tp quyn mt cch
khng cn thit i vi vic cung cp dch v c ng gp
ca vin tr. Kiu thit k v qun l vin tr truyn thng
cng hn ch s tham gia ca cng ng a phng
vo vic thit k v thc hin cc d n pht trin.
Nhng phn ng trc y ca nh ti tr i vi cc
th ch yu km thng khng c tc dng. Do nng lc
thc hin km v do p lc phi lm cho ng tin vn
ng, cc c quan vin tr trong mt thi gian di c
gng lm kn cho cc d n ca mnh khi s dng h tr
k thut mt cch bit lp, cc n v thc hin d n c
lp v cc chuyn gia nc ngoi - ch khng phi c gng
ci thin mi trng th ch cho vic cung cp dch v.
Nhng n lc ny trong nhiu trng hp gp tht bi
thm hi nh hoc thm ch cn hn c nhng n lc tc
ng ti ci cch chnh sch kinh t v m. Chng khng
ci thin c cc dch v trong ngn hn m cng khng
to ra nhng thay i th ch trong di hn.
Hnh 9: Thnh cng
trong cc d n cung
cp nc nng thn vi
cc mc tham gia
khc nhau ca i tng
th hng
Cc d n thnh cng (phn
trm so vi tng s)
Mc tham gia
t
Mc tham gia
nhiu
Ngun: Isham, Narayan v
Pritchett 1995.
Vin tr bng nhiu cch c th gip ci thin cc th
ch v chnh sch cp ngnh:
Cng trnh phn tch ca cc c quan ti tr, nh
Ngn hng Th gii c chng minh l lm tng kh
nng thnh cng ca cc d n cng cng. Mt nghin cu
cho bit 10.000 la c b sung vo cng vic nghin
cu lm tng thm 80.000 la li ch cho d n.
Trong mu iu tra v cc d n cung cp nc nng
thn c nhn ti tr, t l thnh cng l 68% i vi nhng
d n m bn th hng tham gia nhiu nhng ch l 12%
i vi nhng d n m bn th hng tham gia t (hnh 9).
Quan trng hn c l cc n lc ca nh ti tr nhm tng
cng s tham gia ca cc bn th hng gp phn
phng php ny c p dng cho lnh vc cung cp dch
v.
So snh cc trng hp thc hin thnh cng d n
cc nc cho thy tm quan trng ca mi trng th ch
i vi cc hot ng u t cng cng. Ni chung, trong
nc cng c nhiu yu t t do (t do bo ch, t do hi
hp... ) th cng c nhiu d n thnh cng. cung cp
Nhng nc ngho
c ch nh sch tt l
ra phi nhn c
nhiu vin tr hn
so vi nhng nc
c ch nh sch bnh
thng - nhng trn
thc t h li nhn
c t hn
ANH GIA VIN TR
26
mt cch hiu qu cc dch v cng ng th cc kin
ca cng dn phi c lng nghe.
Khong 40% d n ca Ngn hng Th gii tc
ng ng k ti vic pht trin th ch - l chng
gp phn lm thay i cch hot ng ca khu vc cng.
Cc pht hin cho thy vai tr ch yu ca cc d n
vin tr pht trin l khng phi lm ng tin vn ng
m l h tr qu trnh xy dng khu vc cng thnh khu
vc hiu qu. Cc c quan vin tr c th a ra nhng
tng v vic lm th no ci thin dch v v h tr cho
cch tip cn sng to. Hc hi t nhng sng kin ny s
cho kin thc nhn bit c ci g c tc dng v ci g
khng c tc dng. Quan im ny ca cc d n pht trin
c ngha quan trng, tc ng khng ch ti s la chn
v nh gi d n m cn ti cch thc thit k v nh gi
cc c quan ti tr. Vic nh gi cc d n trn quan im
ca cc nh ti tr c bit phi ch trng ti vic liu cc
d n c tc ng tch cc i vi cc th ch v chnh
sch khu vc hay khng.
Hnh 10: S phn b vin
tr trn thc t, 1996 v
s phn b ti u
gim ngho.
Vin tr (phn trm GDP)
S phn b
thc
S phn b ti
u gim
ngho
Chnh sch
km
Chnh sch
bnh thng
Chnh sch
tt
Ngun: Collier v Dollar 1998.
Tin, nhng cng nhiu tng hn
Hn ai ht cc nc ang pht trin ang nm trong tay
s phn ca mnh. Qun l kinh t trong nc cn quan
trng hn c vin tr ti chnh nc ngoi. Cc nn kinh t
b tt hu l do nhng khim khuyt v chnh sch v th
ch hn l do thiu ti chnh. Vin tr bng tin c tc
dng ch khi cc nc t c tin b ng k trong ci
cch chnh sch v th ch. Nhng nc ngho c chnh
sch tt l ra phi nhn c nhiu vin tr hn so vi
nhng nc c chnh sch bnh thng - nhng trn thc t
h li nhn c t hn (hnh 10).
Vin tr nc ngoi tp trung qu nhiu vo vic
chuyn giao vn m (thng) him khi ch ti mi
trng chnh sch v th ch qua cc ngun lc c th
lu chuyn. Cch lm ny l hu qu ca vic hiu sai khi
nim pht trin - nhn mnh qu nhiu vo ti chnh m b
qua chnh sch v th ch - v l do cc c quan vin tr
phi chu p lc t trong v ngoi nc. i vi cc c
quan pht trin th vic gii ngn (cc khon vay v vin
tr) c th d dng tnh c v c xu hng tr thnh mt
thc o u ra quan trng. Cc c quan vin tr cm thy
mnh ch yu c vai tr chi tin, do vy chng c g ngc
nhin khi phn ln vin tr c vo cc nc c c ch
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
27
qun l ti - vi kt qu t c rt t i.
Do , cng ng quc t c th lm c g c ch
trong nhng mi trng b mo m nhiu nh vy? D nhin
vn ny chng c cu tr li n gin. Trong ba thp k
qua, hu nh chng c iu g kh quan xy ra Mianma
hay Nigiria, bi vy s qu ch quan khi ni rng c mt
s gii php thn k cho cc nc ny v cc nc tng t.
Tuy nhin, nhng nc cng c nhng v d v vin tr
thnh cng trong vic ci thin cuc sng ca ngi dn.
Chng cui cng ca bn bo co ny a ra bn
nghin cu tnh hung v vin tr c hiu qu nhng
iu kin kh khn: iu chnh m khng cn vay iu
chnh Vit Nam; h tr cho phn cp gio dc En
Xanvao, Pakixtan v Braxin; i mi cng tc ti tr cho
y t Camrun; v sng kin bo dng ng s chu
Phi. Xuyn sut nhng trng hp thnh cng ny trong
nhng mi trng kh khn l bn ch :
Khung 5 Quan im ca cc bn lin quan v mc hiu qu ca vin tr
chun b cho bo co ny, cc thng ip
c gi i v c tho lun rng ri vi hng lot
nc lin quan thuc khu vc ang pht trin v
pht trin. Mc d chc chn s c mt s quan
im khc nhau nhng c s nht tr cao v
nhng yu t to nn thnh cng trong vin tr pht
trin:
Chng c g phi ngc nhin, nhng yu t ny
ho ra l mt mi trng chnh sch v th ch
thun li cho vic t c nhiu li ch t cc
ngun lc dnh cho pht trin; vai tr hng u
ca nc nhn vin tr trong vic thit k v qun
l cc chng trnh vin tr, gp phn cng c cam
kt i vi thnh cng v s iu hnh thng
thong nhm tng cng tinh thn trch nhim v
s thn trng.
Benno Ndulu,
Vin trng Vin nghin cu kinh t chu Phi
Khi nim mi v "lm ch" c nhn mnh
trong chin lc pht trin mi ca U ban h tr
pht trin l nhm mc ch nng cao mc hiu
qu v tc dng bng cch phn tn trch nhim
ri ro v chi ph cho cc bn lin quan. Chnh
quyn trung ng ca cc nc ang pht trin c
vai tr u tu trong vic hoch nh chnh sch
pht trin. Tuy nhin, i vi hnh thc pht trin
tham gia th cc cng dn tham gia - v gnh chu
mt phn gnh nng - hp tc vi nhau bo m
iu ny bo m s tham gia nhit tnh ca cng
chng v duy tr tnh bn vng cho d n.
Toru Shinotsuka,
Kinh t trng, OECD ti Nht Bn
S phi hp cht ch vi cc t chc phi chnh ph
(NGO) trong cc d n pht trin chng t c hiu
qu trong vic tng cng thc s hu v tham gia
ca cng ng, do cng c s bn vng ca cc d
n, c bit cc d n cung cp cc dch v (v trao
quyn) cho cc cng ng a phng. Nhng thi
ca c cc c quan ti tr ln chnh ph nhn ti tr
i vi s tham gia ca cc NGO l quan trng v
y thi khng thun nht. Khng phi tt c
cc nh ti tr u hoan nghnh vai tr mnh m ca
NGO. Tng t nh vy, mi nc th thi tip
nhn s tham gia ca NGO t pha chnh ph - cha
ni ti s phi hp - l khc nhau. Thm ch trong ni
b mt nc, nh Philippin chng hn, gia cc cp
chnh quyn c s khc nhau v quan im. Phn
ln cng tc vin tr vn phi tin hnh v vai tr ch
o ca Ngn hng Th gii tng cng s phi
hp ca x hi dn s trong qu trnh hp tc pht
trin l cn thit.
Cielito Habito,
B trng K hoch Kinh t -X hi
Cng ho Philippin
Ngun: OECD/Ngn hng Th gii 1998, tr. 23,15,21.
ANH GIA VIN TR
28
cho d n t hiu qu. Cng chng s lp k
hoch v ku gi vin tr, chu mt s chi ph xy
dng v lnh trch nhim bo dng v qun l.
Tm mt nh v ch. Cc nc, cc chnh ph v
cng ng l nhng thnh phn khng ng nht. Trong khi
vic xp Mianma v c bn l "nc c c ch qun l ti" l
cng bng th trong cng ng v thm ch trong chnh ph
nc ny c th c nhng yu t hng ti ci cch. Nu vin
tr c th tm ra phng thc h tr cho nhng quc gia ci
cch ny th nh hng ca n c th rt ln.
S nhn nhn di hn v nhng thay i mang tnh
h thng. Nhng nc ci cch thnh cng nhn thy
iu g s c th khc i trong 10 nm na - khc c v kt
qu (nhiu tr em ti trng hn, nhiu sinh vin tt
nghip hn, nhiu cng n vic lm hn) ln quy trnh (s
tham gia ca cng ng vo trng hc, cng chng h tr
rng ri hn cho cc chnh sch ci cch).
H tr qu trnh to ra kin thc. Mc d c trng
ca cc nc ci cch l c tm nhn di hn nhng h cn
phi thng xuyn b sung chi tit bng cch ci tin v
nh gi. Hn th na, ci cch tn gc i hi phi
chng minh c rng ci cch trn thc t c pht huy tc
dng. nh gi v cung cp ti chnh cho cc hot ng
ci tin l vai tr chnh yu ca vin tr pht trin.
S tham gia ca x hi dn s. Trong nhng mi
trng b mo m nhiu, chnh ph khng th a ra c
nhng chnh sch h tr v cc dch v hiu qu. Bi vy,
vic chuyn giao ti chnh t chnh ph ny sang cho chnh
ph khc li gy ra nhng kt qu khng tt. Trong trng
hp ny, vin tr hiu qu thng phi c s tham gia h
tr ca x hi dn s hoc gy p lc cho chnh ph
phi thay i hoc li ko vic cung cp dch v trc
tip v tay mnh.
Nhng im trnh by trn cho thy cc c im ca
nhng mi trng thun li cho s thay i v vic lm th
no cc nh ti tr c th tng cng c nhng c
im ny. Nhng khon vin tr thnh cng cng rt ra bi
hc v hnh vi ca nh ti tr. Ti tr s c hiu qu hn
khi:
Cc c quan ti tr tp trung vo ci cch di hn.
iu ng lu i vi thnh cng trong cc mi trng
kh khn in hnh l cc nh ti tr cn phi s dng
nhiu cn b v gii ngn nh git. Vt ra ngoi khun
kh d n, thnh cng ny cn h tr cho cc ci cch
mang tnh h thng. Vin tr hiu qu trong cc mi
ci cch tn gc
i hi phi chng
minh c rng ci
cch trn thc t c
pht huy tc dng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
29
trng kh khn thng thin v h tr tng hn l tin
hay d n. Tin c th l mt u vo, nh trong cc v d
chng 5. Cc d n cng c th l mt u vo c ch.
Nhng trng tm ca h tr trong nhng trng hp ny l
nhm cung cp nhng tng mi hay gip tm kim
tng mi.
Cc nh ti tr hot ng bng phng thc hp
tc ch khng phi cnh tranh. Cc nghin cu v vin tr
trong mt thi gian di cho bit s lng cc nh ti tr
trong thi gian qua gia tng nhanh nhng h vn cha
phi hp cht ch vi nhau. Cc quc gia c c ch qun l
tt buc cc nh ti tr phi phi hp vi nhau nhng trong
cc mi trng yu km cc nh ti tr thng hay mnh
ai ngi ny chy. Kh c th gii thch c hnh vi
ny, ngoi tr vic cc nh ti tr mun "cm c ca mnh"
trn mt ci g hu hnh. Trong nhng trng hp vin
tr thnh cng, chng ti thy c s phi hp cht ch gia
cc nh ti tr ch trng vo s chuyn i rng ln hn,
ch khng phi vo tng d n v sc c c th.
V mc tiu ca vin tr l nhm vo vn tin v
tng nn cng vic qun l v nh gi tr nn nghim
ngt hn. Cc c quan ti tr ang c gng h tr cho ci
cch chnh sch v pht trin th ch c cp kinh t v m
ln cp ngnh. Thnh phn c u tin s l chng trnh
quc gia hay chng trnh ngnh. Cc d n n l s ng
vai tr quan trng trong vic h tr ngnh pht trin nhng
nn nh gi nhng d n ny trc ht trn c s ng
gp ca chng i vi cng cuc ci cch th ch v chnh
sch ngnh, nh khi xy gch th mng. nh gi hiu
qu ca Ngn hng Th gii c th s chng cn ch ch
trng ti cc hot ng d n m cn phi o lng c
tc ng ca hng lot cc hot ng v ngn hng cp
ngnh v quc gia. iu ny i hi phi c cc cng c
v hnh thc mi... (Ngn hng Th gii 1997a, tr.1).
T thnh cng v tht bi, cc c quan ti tr rt ra
c bi hc cho mnh. Trong nhng nm 1990, tt c cc
c quan ti tr ln u tin hnh ci cch vi mc tiu
cng c vic hng trng tm vo kt qu. Hu ht cc c
quan ny cng trin khai cc chin lc h tr quc gia
sao cho ngy nay cc hot ng n l phi ph hp vi k
hoch tng th hn ca cng cuc ci cch chnh sch v
thay i th ch. Cng vi tinh thn nh vy, trng tm ca
nh gi vt qua cp d n m ch trng vo vic
nh gi tng th chng trnh quc gia. iu ny chc
chn s dn ti cu hi: liu cc c quan ny s dng
Trong trng hp
vin tr thnh cng,
cc nh ti tr ch
trng vo s chuyn
i rng ln hn, ch
khng phi vo tng
d n v sc c c
th.
ANH GIA VIN TR
30
ngun lc ca mnh thc y qu trnh thay i th ch
v chnh sch t ci thin dch v v cht lng cuc
sng hay cha? Cu hi ny kh c th tr li, nhng li l
cu hi nn t ra. Hi ng pht trin hi ngoi va qua
ti tr cho mt nh gi tc ng tng th ca vin tr
ti tm nc chu Phi, do chuyn gia ca cc nc ang
pht trin lin quan v cc nc ti tr ln cng phi hp
tin hnh - dng nh y l mt phng php hu hiu.
Tng t, cc c ng ca IMF va qua c mt nhm
cc chuyn gia bn ngoi i nh gi vin tr ca Qu i
vi cc nc c thu nhp thp ang ci cch. Ngn hng
Th gii cng bt u xng cc nh gi vin tr
quc gia vi ngun u vo do hng lot cc thnh vin
ca n cung cp.
Cc nh gi c lp ca cc c quan pht trin vi u
vo c huy ng mnh m t cc nc ang pht trin
ch trng ti hai vn : Liu khon ti chnh khng l
c c u t vo mi trng chnh sch v th ch ph
hp khng? Cc c quan ng gp cho ci cch chnh
sch v thay i th ch cha? nh gi nhng vn ph
hp phi c p dng vo cng tc qun l v khuyn
khch trong ni b cc c quan. Vi vic qun l v nh
gi tt hn, cc c quan pht trin s tr nn:
Chn lc k hn - nhiu tin hn vo nhng
nc c c ch kinh t tt.
Ch trng ti kin thc hn - s dng cc ngun
lc h tr cho cc phng thc tip cn mi trong lnh
vc cung cp dch v, m rng kin thc v s hiu qu
ca cc phng thc v truyn b thng tin ny, coi
l cng vic chnh yu.
Phi hp tt hn - cc c quan ch trng ti kt
qu s t quan tm hn ti vic cm c ca mnh trn mt
d n c th no m ch trng vo vic lm th no
cc cng ng, cc chnh ph v cc nh ti tr phi hp
vi nhau cng ci thin cc dch v.
C thc t ph bnh hn - cc c quan s khng
ngng t hi mnh: Ti sao chng ta lm ci chng ta ang
lm? V c tc ng g?
Khi hiu r hn v pht trin v tc dng ca vin
tr, cng vi vic kt thc p lc ca chin tranh lnh,
ngi ta c l do tin tng rng cng cuc ci cch ca
cc c quan vin tr s thnh cng.
C l do tin tng
rng ci cch ca
cc c quan ti tr
s thnh cng.
1
Thm ch mt phn danh mc ti liu cng bao gm c nhng cun sch ca cc c quan ti tr
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tng quan
31
bn ngoi (Cassen 1986, cp nht nm 1994); Riddell 1996; Mosley 1987; Krueger, Michalopoulos v
Ruttan 1989), cc nh gi th ch khc nhau v danh mc sch tham kho v cc ch chuyn su,
nh vin tr v kinh t hc v m (White 1992), cho vay trn c s chnh sch (Killick 1991), vin tr v
cc t chc phi chnh ph (Riddell, Bebbington v Peck 1995) v vin tr v ti thit sau xung t (Ngn
hng Th gii 1998b).
2
Trn c s nhng s liu hin c, trng tm ca nghin cu ny l h tr ca cc nc OECD cho
cc nc ang pht trin, khng cp vin tr Nam-Nam (chng hn, t Cot hay Arp Xt) hay vin
tr m rng ca Lin bang X vit.
3
Trng tm ca bn bo co ny l nhng n lc quc t nhm h tr cho tng trng di hn v gim
ngho cc quc gia ang pht trin. Cn c cc hnh thc hp tc quc t khc na khng c cp
trong nghin cu ny, nh cc n lc nhm hn ch vn chuyn ma tu qua bin gii hay xc tin gii
quyt xung t bng con ng ho gii. Ngoi ra, vin tr nhn o chim gn 10% ca vin tr pht
trin v ch yu l nhng n lc cu tr trong ngn hn l vn ring bit khng cp trong bo co
ny.
4
S ng tnh lc u l v u t vt cht v gn y l u t con ngi - l nhn xt thng thy
m cc ti liu v thc t chng minh l sai. Tc phm V ca kch chu c ca Gunnar Myrdal, c
vit vo nhng nm 1950 bo hiu cho thy gii tr thc c cch nhn tng i cng bng gia vn
nhn lc v vt lc.
5
S sai lm nu qu coi trng nhng quan im trc y hay nhng ngi c quan im v kinh t
hc khng phi l mn khoa hc chnh xc v vn lun chng l vn kh. Mt nh kinh t pht trin
50 tui hoch nh chnh sch nm 1960 trong cuc i s c chng kin: cuc i suy thoi, Chin
tranh th gii th hai chm dt tnh trng tht nghip v tng mc sn xut ca thi chin, s ni ln k
diu ca Lin bang X vit vi ch k hoch ho tp trung v vic Nht Bn ui kp c cc cng
quc chu u.
ANH GIA VIN TR
32
Chng 1
Tin cng quan trng -
trong mt mi trng ch nh sch tt
Trong nhiu nm qua, nhiu nc ang pht trin
nhn c mt s lng vin tr nc ngoi rt ln. Liu
nhng khon vin tr ny c th lm gim ngho v t l t
vong tr em hay khng? Vin tr nc ngoi c gp phn
lm tng thu nhp theo u ngi hay khng? Vin tr
hiu qu hn c tng thu nhp v gim ngho trong tng
lai hay khng? V liu tc dng ca vin tr ti tnh hnh
ngho kh c th c ci thin bng cch phn b li vin
tr gia cc nc hay khng?
Cho d l cc mc tiu trung gian l g, th mc tiu
cui cng ca vin tr vn l thc y tng trng v gim
ngho. Trong mt th gii l tng, vin tr mt triu la
cho mt nc s c tc dng i vi tng trng v qu
trnh gim ngho ging nh kt qu khi vin tr cng mt
s tin cho mt quc gia khc. Thc t iu ny khng xy
ra. Mt s nc thu c kt qu cao hn so vi cc nc
khc. Ti sao? Hiu qu ca vin tr ph thuc ch yu
vo cc th ch v chnh sch ca cc nc nhn vin tr.
Vi nhng nc qun l kinh t tt, vin tr s lm tng
u t t nhn, thc y tng trng, h thp t l t vong
tr em, y nhanh qu trnh gim ngho. Vi cc nc
qun l kinh t km, vin tr c tc dng rt t ti qu trnh
pht trin.
Phn u chng ny tng kt cc din bin tng
trng khc nhau ca cc nc ang pht trin. Tng
trng gp phn lm gim ngho v ci thin cc ch tiu
v x hi, y chnh l l do gii thch tm quan trng ca
mi quan h gia vin tr v tng trng. Sau chng
ny xem xt mt s bi hc thc tin v s tng trng, cc
th ch, chnh sch v cu hi t ra l - ti sao vin tr li
c s nh hng ti s tng trng. Chng ta cng s xem
xt cc mi quan h gia vin tr v tng trng, vin tr
v ngho kh, vin tr v u t t nhn. Sau l mt cu
hi khc c t ra: vin tr (c song phng v a
phng) c phn b nh th no. Sau cng l mt s
kin ngh v cch nng cao hiu qu vin tr.
Nhiu bin php
thc y tng trng
di hn cng gp
phn gim ngho.
ANH GIA VIN TR
33
Cc nc khc nhau - vn mnh khc nhau
Nm 1966, tipia, n v Thi Lan u l cc nc
ngho. , a s ngi dn sng vi mc di 1
la/ngi/ngy (gi nm 1995). Trong giai on t nm
1966 n 1990, so vi nhiu nc ang pht trin khc n
t kt qu tt, thu nhp u ngi thc t tng gp hai
ln v gim s ngi ngho xung cn 53% s dn. Nhng
cng trong thi k ny, Thi Lan tng thu nhp theo u
ngi ln gp ba ln v gim t l ngi ngho xung cn
2% s dn. S khc bit ny c Robert Lucas gi l
nhng kt qu v phc li gy sng st ca tc tng
trng v pht trin khc nhau. S tng phn gia Thi Lan
v tipia thm ch cng r rt hn. Nm 1966, mc thu
nhp bnh qun theo u ngi ca Thi Lan cao gp bn ln
mc thu nhp bnh qun theo u ngi ca tipia. n
nm 1990, thu nhp ca tipia khng tng trng trong khi
thu nhp theo u ngi ca Thi Lan cao hn gp 10 ln.
Cc vn tng trng khng ch v mc ch tng
trng m cn v mc tiu nng cao mc sng. Nm 1967,
c 1000 tr em sinh ra Thi Lan th c n 84 em b cht
di mt nm tui. n nm 1994, con s tr em t vong
sau khi sinh Thi Lan gim i 2/3. n v tipia
cng c nhng tin b nhng khng bng Thi Lan. T l tr
t vong sau khi sinh n trong thi k ny gim mt
na, cn tipia t vong tr em ch gim 27%. Cc ch
tiu x hi khc cng phn nh c thc tin tng t. Vo
nm 1990, Thi Lan ph cp tiu hc cho ton b cc b
gi trong khi n mi ch l 91% v tipia l 19%.
Tng trng khng loi b ht ngho kh nhng thu
nhp u ngi v cc ch tiu x hi khc c ci thin
(hoc xu i). iu ny c ngha l tui th, t l nhp
hc, t vong tr em v tr em suy dinh dng u c mi
lin h cht ch vi thu nhp bnh qun u ngi. Mc d
trn ton cu, mc sng cao hn, song s khc bit ln
v mc sng gia cc nc ni ln tm quan trng ca qu
trnh pht trin. n c i vi t l t vong tr em;
trong giai on t 1967-1994 hu ht cc nc ang pht
trin ni chung, t l t vong tr em u gim. Tuy
nhin, mc gim li c s khc nhau rt ln gia cc
nc (hnh 1.1). Cc quc gia c nn kinh t tr tr nh
Daia (Cng ho dn ch Cngg ngy nay), tipia,
Nigiria, Dmbia c t l t vong tr em gim rt t,
Tc tng trng GDP
u ngi thc t lun thay
i, ngay c trong mt thi
k n nh. Trong thi k
1960-1980, chng ti thy
rng tc tng trng GDP
u ngi thc t ca n
l 1,4%, Ai Cp l 3,4%,
Hn Quc l 7%... T gia
thp nin 1960 n gia thp
nin 1970, tc tng trng
ca Innsia tng t 3,9%
ln 7,5%.
Ti khng hiu lm sao
m mt ngi c th xem xt
nhng con s m li khng
xem chng nh l cc kh
nng ang tr thnh hin
thc. C cch no Chnh
ph n c th lm cho
nn kinh t nc ny tng
trng nhanh nh Innsia
khng? Nu c, chnh xc
l g? Kt qu ca vic a
phc li con ngi vo trong
cc cu hi ny l: Mt khi
mt ngi bt u suy ngh
n cc cu hi ny th
chng cn u c u m
ngh n cc iu khc.
Robert E. Lucas, Jr.
"Bn v c ch pht trin
kinh t", tr. 4-5.
ANH GIA VIN TR
34
trong khi cc nc tng trng nhanh nh Btxoana,
Chil, Lxth, Mrix, Tuynidi th t l t vong tr em
gim mnh khong 70% hoc hn.
Thu nhp ca ngi ngho tng ln m rng kh
nng ci thin sc kho, gio dc v mc sng ca h. Hn
na nhiu bin php thc y tng trng bn vng nh
gio dc hoc t do ho thng mi cng gp phn gim
bt tnh trng ngho kh. Nhng tng trng kinh t khng
gii quyt mi vn nh hu hoi mi trng, ti phm
v bo lc, phn bit i x v gii, s cm on ca x
hi v cc vn tng t c nh hng n thu nhp. Khi
ngi dn ci thin c mc thu nhp t thp n mc
trung bnh th s c nhiu thch thc ny sinh i vi x
hi. V d nh nhng m my khi bao trm bu tri cc
nc ng Nam ma h nm 1997 m nguyn nhn l
t rng lm trang tri. Hoc l cc vn v n tc giao
thng v nhim khng kh cc thnh ph ca cc nc
ang pht trin.
Hin nay i vi cc nc c thu nhp thp, vic t duy
tr mc tng trng vn l bin php quan trng trong qu
trnh pht trin. Nu tng gi tr sn phm ca tipia
c phn b u gia cc h gia nh th mi ngi u
ngho. Tng trng r rng l cn thit gii quyt tnh
trng ngho kh v cc vn pht sinh nh suy dinh
dng, sc kho km, tht hc v thiu cc dch v x hi
khc.
Hnh 1.1. T vong tr s sinh mt s nc, 1967 v 1994
T vong tr s sinh
(1000 tr s sinh)
n
Th Nh K
Ngun: Cc ch tiu pht trin th gii 1998.
Xt trn tng th cc nc ang pht trin thu c rt
nhiu thnh tu ln nh gim s t vong tr s sinh, ngun
T mt xut pht
im ging nhau
nm 1967, nm 1994
t l t vong tr s
sinh ca Btxoana
gim xung cn
3,3%, trong khi con
s ny ca Dmbia
gn nh khng i l
11%.
ANH GIA VIN TR
35
lng thc c to ra nhiu hn, s tr em n trng ng
hn, s ngi cht v nhng bnh c th phng nga gim
xung nhiu. Ni chung trn ton cu mc tng tui th ca
ngi dn trong 40 nm gn y cn cao hn mc tng tui
th ca c 4000 nm trc (Ngn hng Th gii, 1993).
Ci cch gio dc c m rng ti nhiu th h; 60 nm
trc 62% dn s Trung Quc khng c n trng, n
nay con s ny ch cn l 5%. Innsia, 60 nm trc
80% dn s khng c n trng nay con s ny ch cn l
15%.
Nhng xt v mi phng din th nhng tin b t
c khng c tnh ng u. cc nc tng trng
nhanh th tnh hnh c ci thin nhiu nht. K t sau
Chin tranh th gii th hai, cc nc ang pht trin c
phn thnh ba nhm: th nht l nhm cc nc tng
trng nhanh, th hai l nhm cc nc tng trng chm
v khng tng trng, th ba l nhm cc nc tt li
(Pritchett 1998). Mt nhm nh nhng gy n tng ln
gm cc nc Btxoana, Innsia, Hn Quc v Thi
Lan, tng trng nhanh hn cc nc cng nghip (bng
1.1). Khong cch gia cc nc ny so vi M (nc dn
u v thu nhp) c rt ngn li mt cch ngon mc.
Nhm cc nc tng trng nhanh cng c s thay
i: c mt s nc mi gia nhp v mt s nc khc b
loi khi nhm. Hn Quc l mt nc ngho trc khi
nc ny ct cnh nm1960. Nm 1966, Innsia cn rt
m nht v lc nc ny tng trng qu thp, c mc
lm pht cao v x hi lun bt n. Trc khi bng n vo
nm 1974, Mrix c thu nhp bnh qun u ngi thp
hn so vi nm 1960. Gn y c nhiu nc gia nhp
nhm cc nc tng trng nhanh; Trung Quc vo cui
nhng nm 1970 v Chil vo nm 1984. ng thi, mt
s nc cng ri khi nhm nhng nc tng trng
nhanh. T nm 1965 n 1980, Braxin c tc tng
trng bnh qun l 4,2% nm, nhng n thi k 1980-
1992 tc tng trng l -0,2% nm. Chc chn tng
trng ca Innsia s gim do hu qu ca cuc khng
hong ti chnh gn y.
Nhm cc nc tng trng chm gm Bnglat, n
, Malauy v Pakixtan, c tc tng trng tng
ng cc nc cng nghip. Cc nc ny cha th theo
kp nhm cc nc tng trng nhanh nhng cng khng
b tt li. Nm 1990 thu nhp u ngi ca M cao gp
18 ln thu nhp u ngi ca n , nhng do thu nhp
u ngi ca mi nc u tng ln gp i, nn khong
Bng 1.1. Thu nhp u
ngi thc t so vi M
T l % so vi
thu nhp ca M
1966 1990
Cc nc tng trng nhanh
Btxoana 4,7 12,5
Innsia 5,0 10,9
Hn Quc 9,6 37,0
Thi Lan 10,1 19,8
Cc nc tng trng chm
Bnglat 8,8 7,7
n 5,4 7,0
Malauy 3,6 2,9
Pakixtan 7,3 7,7
Cc nc khng tng trng
Ct ivoa 11,6 6,7
tipia 2,4 1,8
Haiti 7,3 4,5
Iran 29,0 18,8
Nicaragoa 18,7 7,2
Daia 5,1 2,2
Dmbia 8,5 3,8
Ngun: Summers v Heston
1991.
ANH GIA VIN TR
36
cch v s tuyt i hin nay l ln hn nhiu. Cc nc
tng trng chm cng thu c mt s kt qu trn
lnh vc gim ngho v nng cao cc tiu ch x hi, nhng
nhng kt qu ny khng cao bng cc nc tng trng
nhanh.
Trong my thp nin qua, thu nhp bnh qun u
ngi ca mt s ln dn c trn th gii khng h tng,
thm ch cn gim xung ng k (c bit l gn y). S
ng nhng ngi ny sng chu Phi (v d, Ct ivoa,
tipia, Dmbia) hoc cc nc nh Haiti, Nicaragoa v
Iran. Khi so snh vi cc nc khc trn th gii th cc
nc ny c thu nhp u ngi qu thp. Nm 1966 thu
nhp u ngi ca M gp 20 ln thu nhp u ngi ca
Daia (Cng ho dn ch Cngg), n nay khong cch
ny l 50 ln.
Ti sao c s chnh lch?
Gii thch nh th no v nhng din bin tng trng
rt khc nhau nu trn? Mi ngi tng ngh rng
nguyn nhn chnh ca cc nc ngho chnh l thiu tch
lu v thiu ngun ngoi t cho u t. Mt phn c s l
lun ban u ca vin tr nc ngoi l gip cc nc
khc phc thiu ht tch lu, nhm to ngun u t cn
thit v khc phc thiu ht ngoi t c cc my mc,
thit b nhp khu lm nn tng cho s u t cn thit.
Cc c quan pht trin lp ra m hnh hai thiu ht,
m hnh ny xem nhp khu v u t c bn l cc ng
lc cho tng trng. Vai tr ca vin tr nc ngoi trong
vic thc y tng trng l cn thit, v vin tr nc
ngoi c th gp phn gii quyt hai thiu ht trn.
S tr tr ko di v s sp nhanh chng h thng k
hoch ho tp trung kiu x vit (chnh h thng ny l cha
ca t duy thiu ht v ch hoch nh pht trin)
chng minh rng ch c u t th khng th bo m s
tng trng. Vo nhng nm 1990, cc nghin cu l
thuyt v thc tin ch trng vo nghin cu c chiu
su hn. Trng tm nghin cu chuyn sang cc n
by khuyn khch ch khng cn l u t nh trc kia.
Ngha l t n thun v vn nay chuyn sang nghin cu
cc th ch, cc chnh sch, thc y tng trng thng
qua khuyn khch u t c hiu qu, h tr pht trin
ngun lc con ngi v to iu kin pht trin cng ngh.
Kt lun ca cc nghin cu mi v tng trng l g?
Nhiu bng chng
th hin rng
qun l kinh t v
m tt s to ra
mt mi trng
thun li cho tng
trng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
37
Mt mi trng kinh t v m n nh l rt quan trng.
Lm pht cao s rt bt li cho u t v tng trng
(Fischer, 1993). Tng t, thm ht ngn sch ln lm
chm qu trnh tng trng (Easterly v Rebelo, 1993).
Tng trng cn mt nh hng pht trin hng ngoi v
mt mi trng ph hp cho hi nhp quc t; t do ho
thng mi ti a cng s thc y tng trng nhanh
(Sachs v Warner, 1995)
1
, cc chnh sch ti chnh, thng
mi, tin t s th hin trnh qun l kinh t v m cao
hay thp v thc t ch ra rng qun l kinh t v m tt
s to ra mt mi trng thun li cho s tng trng.
Cc th ch tt v qun l kinh t tt cp vi m cng
rt cn thit. Sc mnh ca quyn s hu, php quyn v
cht lng h thng cng v c tc ng n tng trng
di hn (Knack v Keefer, 1995). Tng t, t tham nhng
trong b my qun l nh nc cng gy tn hi n s
tng trng (Mauro, 1995).
nghin cu v vin tr v tng trng, Burnside v
Dollar (1997, 1998) thu thp cc d liu v 56 nc
ang pht trin nhn vin tr nc ngoi v xc nh tc
tng trng bnh qun cng vin tr nc ngoi v cc bin
s khc trong cc thi k bn nm (bt u t 1970-1973
n 1990-1993). Cc tc gi ny thit k cc ch s
qun l kinh t, da trn cc nh gi ca Sachs v Warner
v m ca, thng d ngn sch, mc lm pht v
hiu qu ca cc th ch. Tt nhin cn nhiu vn khc
c lin quan n qun l kinh t, nhng nhng ch s ny
l cc bin s i din c th o lng c v hu ch
trong phn tch
2
. Mt ln na, mi quan h gia tng
trng v thu nhp bnh qun u ngi vi ch s qun l
kinh t khng nh rng c ch qun l tt - c cp v m
v cp th ch - l yu t rt quan trng i vi s tng
trng (hnh 1. 2).
Kt qu ny ch ra rng cc nc ngho ang b tt hu
khng ch v thiu ht ti chnh m cn v thiu ht th
ch v thiu ht chnh sch. Nu cc nc c th khc
phc cc thiu ht ny, th h c th bt u tng trng
mt cch thnh cng. Btxoana v Thi Lan l cc in
hnh v c ch qun l tt - Tandania v Dmbia l cc
in hnh v c ch qun l ti. V d: s chnh lch v
trnh qun l gia Thi Lan v Dmbia ng vi chnh
lch bn im phn trm tng trng (v d nu tng
trng ca Dmbia l 2% th ca Thi Lan l 6% -ND),
Innsia c chnh sch kinh t v m tt nhng li yu v
th ch.
ANH GIA VIN TR
38
Hnh 1.2. Qun l kinh t v tng trng mt s nc ang
pht trin
Tc tng GDP u ngi hng nm
Ti Trung bnh Tt
Ch s qun l kinh t
Qua thi gian cc nc c th iu chnh v tr ca h.
Blivia v Gana u nhng nm 1980 c trnh qun l
ti, nhng n nhng nm 1990 tr thnh cc nc c
trnh qun l tt. Cc chnh sch kinh t v m trong ch
s ny c th thay i nhanh chng nu x hi v cc
chnh ph thc s mun tin hnh ci cch. Cc kha cnh
khc v th ch ca mt c ch qun l loi tt, nh khun
kh php l chng hn, i hi mt thi gian lu hn mi
hon thin c (North 1990).
Tc tng trng ca cc nc ang pht trin dao
ng nhiu hn so vi cc nc cng nghip (Easterly v
cc tc gi khc 1993). Cc nc ang pht trin c th c
tc tng thu nhp bnh qun u ngi l 5% trong mt
giai on bn nm v ngay trong giai on sau tc ny
c th gim xung cn -3%. Cc nghin cu thc t v tng
trng c th gii thch phn no s thay i tc tng
trng ca cc nc ang pht trin.
Cc nc c cc
ch nh sch tt hn
s tng trng
nhanh hn v ci
cch c th gip h
trong vic ny - nh
Gana v Blivia.
Vi cc nc c c ch qun l tt...
Cc nc c c ch qun l tt c rt nhiu li th.
Nhng nhng li th ny ch c th thnh hin thc khi c
cc chnh sch tt (Sachs v Warner, 1995). Mu nghin
cu ca Burnside v Dollar c phn thnh nhm c ch
qun l tt v nhm c ch qun l ti nhm ch ra mi
quan h gia thu nhp trong thi k u ca mi giai on
Cc nc ngho c
tim nng pht
trin nhanh.
ANH GIA VIN TR
39
v s tng trng sau (hnh 1.3). Trong s cc nc c
c ch qun l tt, cc nc c thu nhp trung bnh tng
trng nhanh hn cc nc c thu nhp cao. Cc siu sao -
nhng con h ng (trc khng hong 1997) hoc
Chil - u l cc nc c c ch qun l tt, c thu nhp
trung bnh tng trng nhanh hn so vi cc nc c thu
nhp cao. Nhn chung, cc nc c thu nhp trung bnh vi
c ch qun l tt u thu ht rt nhiu u t nc ngoi
trc tip, tip thu cng ngh tin tin t nc ngoi v c
li sut u t cao. Cc nc ny ang c bt kp cc nc
cng nghip ho, nhng cng ngy xu th tng trng cng
chm li, c hi tip thu cng ngh t nc ngoi cng
gim i, li sut cng gim xung. Ngc li, cc nc c
c ch qun l ti khng h c li th. Cc nc ny tng
trng chm bt k thu nhp ca h l cao hay thp. Cc
nc khng tham gia vo qu trnh ton cu ho vn duy
tr hng ro thng mi v cc chnh sch kinh t v m
khng n nh l cc nc thit thi nht.
Khi cc nc thu nhp thp, chng hn nh Mali, a
ra cc chnh sch tt th h s tng trng nhanh hn,
nhng kt qu ca h cng khng th bng cc nc thu
nhp trung bnh. C mt s l do gii thch hin tng ny.
Cc nc ny c th c cc c trng khc gy bt li cho
qu trnh tng trng - v d qu t b hn ch. Mt khc
s ngho kh cng gy kh khn cho vic tch lu v u
t ngay c khi cc nc ny c cc chnh sch tt. Gi nh
rng th trng vn quc t l hon ho th vn t nhn s
vo cc nc ang tin hnh ci cch nghim tc.
Nhng th trng trn thc t li khng hon ho, ngha l
cc nh u t t nhn khng th nh gi chnh xc c
tnh hnh v h c th li bc, lm hi n mt chng
trnh ci cch c trin vng thnh cng.
iu ny to ra cho vin tr nc ngoi mt vai tr
xc tc tng trng ca cc nc ang pht trin. Vin tr
ti chnh cho cc nc ngho c chnh sch tt s em li
hiu qu cao v c th gip cc nc ny tng tc tng
trng. Ngc li, vin tr cho cc nc c c ch qun l
ti s khng gip thc y tng trng ca cc nc .
Vin tr pht trin cng c th khuyn khch ci cch
chnh sch (theo cch no chnh l ch ca chng sau).
Ci cch nghim tc c th tng tc tng trng ln 2
n 3 im phn trm. Chnh lch ny s to ra s khc
bit rt ln cc nc ang pht trin m trong 25 nm
qua thu nhp u ngi tng rt t hoc khng h tng.
Hnh 1.3. Tc tng
trng v mc thu nhp
% tng trng nm ca GDP
u ngi
Cc nc
qun l tt
Cc nc
qun l ti
Thu nhp
thp
Thu nhp
trung bnh
thp
Thu nhp
trung bnh
1998.
ANH GIA VIN TR
40
... vin tr nc ngoi thc y tng trng
Mi quan h n gin gia vin tr v tng trng bnh
qun u ngi cc nc ang pht trin nu c th cng
khng r lm (hnh 1.4)
3
. Mt s nc nhn vin tr rt
nhiu song tng trng vn chm chp (v d Dmbia),
trong khi mt s nc tng trng nhanh m cng ch nhn
mt lng vin tr khng ln (Btxoana, Gana).
T xut pht im n gin ny, ny sinh hai vn
ln khi phn tch tc dng ca vin tr i vi tng trng.
Th nht, cng cn phi xem xt cc yu t khc c nh
hng ti tng trng. Th hai, trong mt s trng hp
ngi ta ch ng vin tr cho mt s nc tng trng
chm. V d, nu mt nc b tn tht do thin tai tn ph
nng nghip lm cho nc ny tng trng chm th vin tr
tm thi c th tng. Do vy, d mi quan h n gin ny
cho thy tng quan t l nghch gia vin tr v tng trng,
vic suy lun rng vin tr lm gim tng trng s l mt sai
lm.
Hnh 1.4. Vin tr v tng trng mt s nc
ang pht trin, 1970-1993
Tng trng GDP bnh qun u ngi hng nm (%)
T l phn trm vin tr/GDP
Mt s nc nhn
nhiu vin tr m
thu nhp gim, trong
khi mt s nc
nhn t vin tr
nhng thu nhp
tng.
Mt nghin cu gn y cp vn ny song
cng cha ch ra mi quan h gia vin tr v tng trng
(Boone 1994). Thm ch ngay khi a thm mt lot cc
bin s khc vo phn tch nhng kt qu cng khng khc
- khng c mi quan h.
ANH GIA VIN TR
41
Tuy nhin, iu lm thay i hon ton bc tranh chnh
l s phn bit cc nc c c ch qun l tt v cc nc c
c ch qun l ti. Burnside v Dollar (1997) th nghim mt
gi nh v ch ra rng vin tr khng pht huy tc dng
cc nc khng c cc n by pht trin mnh. i vi cc
nc c c ch qun l ti th s tht l: d s tin vin tr l
bao nhiu th tng trng vn rt thp, thm ch cn m.
Trong vi thp nin qua, thc t mt s nc nhn nhiu vin
tr song vn khng tng trng gy tai ting cho vin tr
nc ngoi.
Xt cc nc c c ch qun l tt, vic chia cc nc
ny thnh nhm nhiu vin tr v nhm t vin tr c th
em li cc kt qu bt ng. Cc nc c c ch qun l tt
vi t vin tr tng trng vi tc 2,2%, trong khi hu
ht cc nc c c ch qun l tt vi nhiu vin tr u
tng trng nhanh gp i vi tc khong 3,7% theo u
ngi. Khi tnh c cc yu t khc (th ch, chnh tr, chnh
sch) th vin tr c mt tc dng rt ln v tch cc ti s
tng trng cc nc c c ch qun l tt (ph lc1). Nu
khng a cc nc thu nhp trung bnh nhn t vin tr vo
phn tch, th cn thy tc ng ca vin tr ln hn ti tng
trng. i vi cc nc c c ch qun l tt khi vin tr
tng ln 1% GDP th tc tng trng tng ln 0,5 im
phn trm - mt li sut khong 40% vi gi nh mc khu
hao l 10%/nm (hnh 1.5). Cc nc c c ch qun l tt
nhn vin tr nhiu v s dng tt trong nhng nm
1990 c th k l Blivia, En Xanvao, Gana, nurt v
Mali.
Hiu sut cn bin ca vin tr gim dn, do vy - ngay
c khi c ch qun l tt - kt qu thu c s gim khi
lng vin tr tng ln. Tuy nhin, vi mt lng vin tr
nht nh m cc nc c c ch qun l tt thc s nhn
c, th kt qu ca vic tng vin tr cho cc nc ny
vn rt tch cc. V d, trong thi k 1990-1993 Gana l
ra cn tng vin tr ln gp i t ti im m ti
li sut cn bin ca mt khon vin tr bng 0.
Hn na nu mt nc ang nhn vin tr vi mc
trung bnh khong 2% GDP theo sc mua tng ng
(PPP) th khi ch s qun l ca nc ny tng ln 1 im,
tc tng trng c th tng ln 1,3 im phn trm. Khi
s vin tr ny tng ln gp i, th thm ch tc dng ca
c ch qun l tt cn mnh hn - tng trng s tng ln
1,9 im phn trm.
Khi c c ch qun
l tt, vin tr tng
ln 1% GDP, tng
trng tng 0,5 im
phn trm.
Hnh 1.5. Tc ng cn
bin ca vic tng vin
tr thm 1% GDP i vi
tng trng
im phn trm tng trng kinh t
Qun l kinh t
Tt Km Trung bnh
Ngun: Ph lc 1
Cc nh nghin cu khc cng rt ra cc kt lun
tng t. Trong mt nghin cu gn y bng vic thng
ANH GIA VIN TR
42
qua so snh hiu qu vin tr Blivia, Csta Rica v
Nicaragoa, ng Cecilia Lopez, B trng K hoch ca
Clmbia tm ra rng vin tr khng c tc dng ln
ti s tng trng Nicaragoa do cc chnh sch ca nc
ny b bp mo mt cch nghim trng - thm ht ngn
sch ln v lm pht cao. Vin tr Blivia ni chung em
li hiu qu, nc ny hon tt mt chng trnh ci
cch vo nhng nm 1980. Kt lun ca Lopez xut pht t
ba nghin cu tnh hung:
Vin tr nc ngoi t n c lp vi s pht trin v
cc tc dng tch cc hay tiu cc ca vin tr ph
thuc vo chnh sch ca chnh ph. Tc ng i vi
s pht trin kinh t c xu hng l tch cc khi vin
tr c s dng to ra cc ngun lc hoc to
ngun u t cho cc d n cng cng gp phn tng
kh nng sinh li ca u t t nhn hoc u t cho
pht trin ngun lc con ngi.
Cc chnh sch ti chnh nn to ra cc khon tch ly
cho chnh ph cc ngun lc trong nc v nc
ngoi cng tp trung u t cc d n cng cng. Nu
khng lm c iu ny th cc ngun lc t nc
ngoi c th b dng trang tri cho cc chi tiu
thng xuyn ca chnh ph ch khng phi l u t
vo cc d n nh thc tin Nicaragoa.
Mi quan h gia cc nh hng tch cc ca vin tr v
cc chnh sch ph hp trong nc lun lun c duy
tr, thm ch trong thi k iu chnh (Lopez 1997).
Mt nghin cu v by nc chu Phi do cc nh
nghin cu t cc nc vin tr v cc nc nhn vin tr
(di s bo tr ca Hi ng pht trin hi ngoi) ch
ra rng, cc chnh sch kinh t tt l mt iu kin kin
quyt cho s thnh cng ca cc khon vin tr.
Cc ch nh sch
kinh t c tc ng
quan trng ti hiu
qu vin tr, cng
mt cch thc nh
tc ng ti tng
trng kinh t.
R rng, ngun vin tr ln khng thc y tng
trng kinh t hu ht cc nc chu Phi v ch gp
phn rt nh vo vic gim ngho. Vy lm th no
dung ha c nhng thiu st nu trn v t c
mt nhn thc r rng v nhng tc ng kinh t ca
vin tr? Khng may l c mt s cc nhn t ngn
cn s hnh thnh mt mi lin h r rng gia vin
tr v tnh hnh kinh t chung. Th nht, chnh cc
chnh sch kinh t ca chnh ph c th ngn cn vin
tr pht huy cc tc dng ng c ca n. Cc chnh
sch kinh t c tc ng quan trng ti hiu qu vin
tr, vi cng mt cch thc nh tc ng ti tng
i vi cc nn kinh
t ang suy thoi,
thu nhp bnh qun
u ngi gim 7%
lm cho t l ngho
kh tng ln 19%.
ANH GIA VIN TR
43
trng kinh t. Cc chnh sch kinh t gy ra kh khn
v cn cn thanh ton, thm ht ngn sch ln hoc
mc lm pht cao c th lm cho mi trng kinh t
bt n, lm gim s hng ng ca khu vc t nhn
trc nhng d n u t cng cng s dng vin tr.
Mt v d in hnh cho hin tng ny l mt d n
khuyn nng s dng vin tr khng t c cc mc
tiu tng sn lng hay nng sut, bi v cc chnh
sch kinh t v m to ra mt ng tin c nh
gi qu cao, chnh iu lm gim tnh cnh tranh
ca cc sn phm to ra. Tng t, cc chnh sch to
ra s bp mo th trng c th hy hoi cht lng
vic s dng cc ngun lc khan him gy hu qu
xu cho x hi. Vi v d v d n khuyn nng, nng
dn khng hng ng v cc chnh sch nng nghip
ca chnh ph khng khuyn khch nng dn s dng
cc cng ngh mi tng nng sut. y khng phi l
cc v d ngu nhin. Vo gia nhng nm 1980, hu
ht cc chuyn gia u tin rng n lc ca cc nh ti
tr v cc chnh ph nhm pht trin v hin i ha
nng nghip nhiu nc chu Phi gn nh b v hiu
ha v cc chnh sch v m v chnh sch ngnh
lm trm trng thm nhng nh hng ca s tt gi
nng sn trn th gii. V d, cc chuyn gia ny cho
rng mi trng chnh sch ca h l kt qu ca
thnh cng trong sn xut nng nghip Knia v l
hu qu hot ng yu km trong khu vc nng
nghip Tandania v Dmbia (van de Walle v
Johnston 1996, tr. 36 - 37).
... vin tr gp phn gim ngho
Mc tiu chnh ca vin tr l gim ngho. Qu trnh
gim ngho cc nc ang pht trin c mi quan h cht
ch vi tng thu nhp u ngi. Cc nh kinh t hc pht
trin trc kia tng lo ngi rng cc li ch ca tng
trng s b s mt cng bng trong thu nhp lm v hiu
ho khi cc nc ngho pht trin. Tuy nhin, cc chng c
gn y ch ra rng iu lo lng ny l khng th c.
Mt nghin cu v cc xu hng trong vic phn phi
thu nhp ca 45 nc a ra cc s liu tin cy v thu
nhp v chi ph ca cc h gia nh trong mt khong thi
gian (Li, Squire v Zou 1998). C 29 nc khng xut hin
xu hng no, trong s 16 nc cn li th 8 nc c xu
hng tng v 8 nc c xu hng gim s chnh lch
Hnh 1.6. Tng trng
kinh t v ngho kh
Tng trng
thu nhp
bnh qun
u ngi
Thay i
i ngho
bnh qun
Cc nn
kinh t
ang i ln
Cc nn
kinh t ang
suy thoi
Ngun: Ravallion v Chen,
1997.
Khi c ch qun l
tt, vin tr tng ln
1% GDP lm cho t
l t vong tr s sinh
gim 0,9%.
ANH GIA VIN TR
44
trong phn phi thu nhp. Nu vic phn phi thu nhp
khng thay i nhiu theo thi gian, mc tng thu nhp
u ngi s tc ng n cc b phn khc nhau ca x
hi mt cch ng u. Do vy cc nc tng trng
nhanh, thu nhp ca nhng ngi ngho s tng nhanh,
mc ngho kh s gim xung. Nhng cc nc c
thu nhp khng tng v phn phi thu nhp n nh th tnh
trng ngho kh s khng c ci thin.
Mt nghin cu khc v tng thu nhp u ngi v gim
ngho 67 nc trong s dng cc s liu v h gia nh.
Nghin cu ny cho thy cc nc c thu nhp u ngi
theo h gia nh tng th ngho kh gim xung v cc nc
c thu nhp gim th ngho kh li ti t hn. Trong cc nn
kinh t ang tng trng, thu nhp u ngi tng vi mc
4% th mc ngho kh gim 5%. Trong cc nn kinh t ang
suy thoi thu nhp u ngi gim bnh qun 7% dn n
mc ngho kh tng ln 19% (hnh 1. 6).
Trong nghin cu ca Burnside v Dollar khng c
cc s liu v tnh trng ngho kh i vi tt c cc nc
v trong cc giai on, do vy khng th trc tip xem xt
tc dng ca vin tr. Nhng theo Bruno, Ravallion v
Squire (1998), bnh qun cc nc ang pht trin thu
nhp u ngi tng thm 1% dn n t l ngho kh
gim xung 2%. Ni cch khc, cc nc c c ch qun
l tt vin tr tng ln 1% GDP thc t to ra thm 0,5%
tng trng v do vy dn ti gim t l ngho kh xung
1%. Vi cc nc c c ch qun l ti tc dng mong i
ca vin tr i vi gim ngho thp hn nhiu.
Vin tr c th nh hng n con ngi theo nhiu
cch. Chng hn c th xt s thay i trong t l t vong
tr s sinh, mt ch tiu x hi quan trng m s liu c
tng i y . Burnside v Dollar pht hin ra rng vin
tr gp phn gim t l t vong tr s sinh nu mt nc
c c ch qun l tt, vin tr tng ln 1% GDP lm gim
t l t vong tr s sinh 0,9% (hnh 1.7). Ngc li, nu
mt nc c c ch qun l ti vin tr tng ln 1% GDP
cng khng em li mt tc ng no i vi t l t vong
tr s sinh.
... vin tr thc y u t t nhn
Tc dng ca vin tr i vi tng trng cc nc c
c ch qun l tt rt cao. iu ny c th xy ra v mt
khi c ch qun l tt s c nhng n u t cng cng
c hiu qu dnh cho vin tr. Nu mt nn kinh t ang
Hnh 1.7. Gim t l t
vong tr s sinh nh
lng vin tr tng
ng 1% GDP
T l t vong tr s sinh (% gim)
Tt Trung bnh Km
Qun l kinh t
1998
ANH GIA VIN TR
45
tng trng nhanh, li nhun u t vo khi phc ng
giao thng, chng hn, s cao. Nu nn kinh t tr tr, li
nhun rt thp v thm ch khng c. Tng t, kinh t
tng trng lm tng t l nhp hc v hiu qu u t vo
pht trin con ngi s cao. Ngc li, mt nn kinh t tr
tr s lm yu ng lc cho tr em ti trng. Do vy khi
c c ch qun l tt, vin tr gip cc chnh ph c nhiu
ngun u t vo lnh vc em li hiu qu cao ny.
Nhng bng chng kinh t cp vi m cng thng nht vi
nhng pht hin ny. V d, cc d n u t cng cng do
Ngn hng Th gii ti tr c t l thnh cng cao (86%)
trong mt mi trng th ch v chnh sch tt so vi mc
48% trong mt mi trng th ch v chnh sch km (xem
hnh 5 phn Tng quan).
C mt s l gii khc v mi quan h gia vin tr v
tng trng, l khi mt nc ngho p dng cc chnh
sch tt cn cc nh u t trong v ngoi nc khng tin
Vietnamo tnh bn vng ca qu trnh ci cch; nu cn e
ngi v s thay i, cc nh u t s ch i. Thm ch cc
nc c c ch qun l tt nhng thu nhp thp c th gp
cc tr ngi khc, trong c c s h tng yu km. Vin
tr nc ngoi dnh cho cc chnh quyn ang tin hnh ci
cch c th ci thin mi trng u t cho u t t nhn c
bng cch to ra lng tin i vi cc chng trnh ci cch
v bng cch gii quyt nhng kh khn v c s h tng.
Vi mt nc c c ch qun l ti, vin tr nc
ngoi c th loi tr u t t nhn. Vin tr c th khuyn
khch khu vc Nh nc tin hnh cc khon u t thng
mi ng ra l do cc nh u t t nhn thc hin. Vi
mt nc c c ch qun l tt, tc dng ca vin tr nc
ngoi c th tng mnh nh vic thc y u t t nhn.
C cn c ng h tng ny (Dollar v Easterly
1998): cc nc c c ch qun l tt, vin tr tng vi
quy m 1% GDP s lm tng u t t nhn thm 1,9%
GDP (hnh 1.8). Do vy cc nh u t t nhn rt hoan
nghnh s kt hp gia c ch qun l tt v vin tr nc
ngoi v iu ny gip gii thch r tc ng ln ca vin
tr i vi tng trng trong mi trng c ch qun l tt.
Tuy nhin mt nc c c ch qun l ti, c tnh 1%
GDP vin tr lm u t t nhn gim 0,5% GDP, iu ny
l gii v sao vin tr khng c tc dng my i vi tng
trng.
Nhng pht hin v tc dng ca vin tr i vi tng
trng v u t t nhn trn y lm sng t cc vn
ca cc nc ngho mc nhiu n v cch h c th c
Hnh 1.8. Tc ng cn
bin ca lng vin tr
tng ng 1% GDP ti
u t t nhn
u t t nhn %GDP
Tt Trung bnh Km
Qun l kinh t
Ngun: Dollar v Easterly
1998
ANH GIA VIN TR
46
gip (Khung 1.1).
Vin tr cha u tin cc nc c c ch qun l tt
Hng vin tr vo cc nc ngho c th ch v chnh
sch tt s thu c li nht t ngun vin tr khan him
khuyn khch u t, thc y tng trng v gim t l
ngho kh. Nhng trong thi k 1970-1973 vic phn b
vin tr ca cc nh ti tr song phng v a phng li
b chi phi bi cc yu t chnh tr - c chnh tr quc t
ca cuc chin tranh lnh v chnh tr i ni ca cc t
chc vin tr.
Vin tr nc ngoi nhm gip nc ngho, nhng
khng hon ton nh vy. Vin tr song phng tnh theo
u ngi m cc nc ang pht trin nhn c c mi
quan h t l nghch (tuy nh) vi thu nhp u ngi ca
cc nc (hnh 1.9). Ni chung khi thu nhp u ngi
tng ln hai ln th vin tr gim xung 33%. Nhng hnh
vi ca cc nh ti tr song phng rt khc nhau
(Ehrenpreis 1997): mt na vin tr ca Thy in dnh
cho 12% s nc ngho nht (c tnh n trng s theo dn
s). Trong tng s vin tr song phng ch mt phn nm
dnh cho cc nc ny. Mt nghin cu khc cng pht
hin ra rng, vin tr ca Canaa, H Lan, Bc u u
nhm vo cc nc ngho (Alesina v Dollar 1998). Mi
quan h gia thu nhp v vin tr theo u ngi ca vin
tr a phng mnh hn so vi vin tr song phng v h
tr ca Hip hi pht trin quc t (IDA) thuc Ngn hng
Th gii cng cao hn. i vi IDA, khi thu nhp u
ngi tng gp i th vin tr theo u ngi gim 90%.
Hnh 1.9. Vin tr song
phng, a phng ca
Ngn hng Th gii t nh
bnh qun u ngi v
mc thu nhp
Vin tr bnh qun u ngi
GDP u ngi thc t
Song phng
a phng
Ngn hng Th gii
Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu
ca Burnside v Dollar.
Mt yu t quan trng khc trong phn b vin tr l
dn s. Cc nc dn s thp nhn vin tr theo u ngi
so vi GDP cao hn (hnh 1.10). iu ny ng vi mt s
loi vin tr. V d, chi ph tr gip k thut dnh cho
Ngn hng trung ng ca n v Cng ho dn ch
nhn dn Lo cng tng t nh nhau. Nhng nu vin tr
dnh cho dch v cng cng nh gio dc hoc xy dng
ng s th khng nn c s phn bit thit thi y cho
cc nc ln. Hn mt na s ngi ngho trn th gii
sng n v Trung Quc c nhn tng ng 2 v 1
la tin vin tr tnh theo u ngi trong thi k 1990-
1993. Trong khi , cc nc nh thng nhn 50 la
vin tr/u ngi l mt thc t gii thch mi quan h
khng mnh gia phn b vin tr v thu nhp.
ANH GIA VIN TR
47
Khung 1.1 Vin tr v cc nc ngho
mc nhiu n
Cc nc ngho mc nhiu n l cc nc
thu nhp thp, c nhiu khon n m h khng
th thanh ton c gc ln li. Vn pht sinh
khng phi l do vin tr nc ngoi (ch yu l
vin tr khng hon li) m bi v cc nc ny
vay qu nhiu trn th trng vn t nhn
hoc cc ngun vin tr chnh thc c mc li
sut gn nh mc li sut th trng. Cc nc
ny gp phi rc ri nh th no? Nn gip
cc nc ny nh th no?
So vi cc nc thu nhp thp khc, vo
nhng nm 1970-1980 cc nc ny c th c
c ch qun l ti hn. Trong thi k 1970-
1993 thu nhp u ngi ca cc nc ny
khng tng nhng vn vay c khi lng ln.
Nhng s tin vay c ny khng c s
dng tt v chc chn khng sinh li cao
c th thanh ton n.
Trong nhng nm 1990, cc nc ngho
mc nhiu n nhn mt s lng vin tr bt
thng ln nhm thanh ton nhng khon n
ny - nhiu gp hai ln so vi mc h ng c da
trn cc ch tiu thu nhp u ngi, dn s v cc
chnh sch... Cho d c vin tr gii quyt n
nhng cc khon n ln ang treo l lng to ra
nhng bt n trong nn kinh t. iu g s xy ra nu
cc nh ti tr khng quan tm n vic phn b
nhng khon vin tr ny?
Ngn hng Th gii (WB), Qu Tin t quc t
(IMF) v cc nh ti tr khc khi xng vic xa
phn ln s n ny, to nhiu ngun lc hn cho cc
nc mc n h u t vo cc dch v cng cng
quan trng. Xa n cn c mt tc dng quan trng
trong vic ci thin mi trng cho u t t nhn.
Xo dt im cc khon n khng th hon tr s lm
gim nhng bt n ca nn kinh t. Xa n l mt
hnh thc vin tr v s c tc ng cao hn cc
nc c c ch qun l tt. Xa n i vi nhng
nc c c ch qun l ti s khng c tc dng. V
nhng l do trn m cc tng gim n cho cc
nc ngho mc nhiu n i hi phi theo di cht
ch qu trnh ci cch chnh sch. Nhng nc u
tin c hng li qua vic gim n gia nhng nm
1990 rt thnh cng trong vic ci cch chnh sch
- l Ugana v Blivia.
Hnh 1.10. Vin tr v dn s
Vin tr theo 1% GDP (log)
Dn s (triu ngi, log)
Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca Burnside v Dollar.
Yu t th hai nh hng xu n mi quan h ny l
vic phn b vin tr thng ph thuc vo li ch chnh tr
v cc chin lc ca cc nh ti tr. V d vin tr ca
M Trung ng hoc vin tr ca chu u dnh cho cc
thuc a c. Burnside v Dollar (1997) pht hin ra rng
cc nhn t chnh tr gii thch vic phn b vin tr
ANH GIA VIN TR
48
song phng nhng vin tr a phng li khng b nh
hng nhiu bi cc nhn t chnh tr. Cc nhn t chnh
tr ny l khng quan trng ch i vi mt nhm cc nh
ti tr nh Canaa, an Mch, Phn Lan, H Lan, Nauy v
Thy in (Alesina v Dollar 1998).
Hai mc tiu song hnh - theo ui cc mc ch
chin lc v thng cho cc chnh sch tt - cng vn
ng vi nhau. iu ny th hin r trong s tng quan
gia vin tr song phng v c ch qun l (hnh 1.11).
Vy cc nh ti tr song phng i x vi hai nc c
cng thu nhp v cng s dn nhng khc nhau v c ch
qun l nh th no? C ch qun l tt hay xu u nhn
c vin tr bnh qun gn nh nhau. Thuc a c ca
mt nc vin tr chnh thng c li hn trong vic thu
ht vin tr song phng d c c ch qun l tt hay
khng (Alesina v Dollar 1998).
S phn b vin tr a phng ph thuc vo thu nhp,
dn s v c ch qun l tt, nhng cn nhc v chnh tr
v chin lc u khng quan trng. Do vy, i vi vin
tr a phng, cc nc thu nhp mc trung bnh km
nhng c c ch qun l tt s nhn c vin tr ln hn
30% so vi cc nc cng mc thu nhp v dn s nhng
c c ch qun l ti (hnh 1.12). i vi cc nc thu
nhp cc k thp, s khc bit gia c ch qun l tt v
c ch qun l ti l rt nh.
Do hu ht vin tr pht trin chnh thc l vin tr
song phng, nn vic phn b tng vin tr (a phng v
song phng) khng phn nh mi quan h vi cht lng
qun l ca mt nc. Vin tr chin tranh lnh v mc
tiu chin lc c th hon thnh c cc mc ch
chnh tr, nhng vin tr cho cc nc ngho c c ch
qun l ti khng gim c ngho kh cc nc ny.
Vin tr c trng im
R rng, vin tr pht trin cn phi tp trung hn na
vo nhng ni m n c th gim ngho mt cch hiu qu
nht. Cn xem xt nhiu hn na v mi trng cho vin
tr. H tr ti chnh c th gim ngho mt cch hiu qu
nht cc nc ngho kh trn din rng nhng c mi
trng th ch v cc chnh sch tt. Ngc li, cc nc
t ngho kh hn hoc c mi trng chnh sch v th ch
km th vin tr khng t c hiu qu cao.
Hin nay, nhiu nc
ngho kh din rng
nhng li c cc
ch nh sch v th
ch tt.
ANH GIA VIN TR
49
Hnh 1.11. Phn b vin tr song phng 1970-1993
Vin tr theo %GDP
G D P u n g i t h c t
T h u n h p t h p
T h u n h p
t r u n g b n h
Q u n l k m
Q u n l t t
Nhng liu c c hi cho mt gii php trng im hn
khng? C th no s ngho kh trn din rng thng gn
cht vi cc th ch km v chnh sch khng ph hp n
ni chng ta khng tm c m hnh kt hp gia ngho
kh din rng v cc chnh sch tt trong hiu qu vin
tr cao? Khng phi nh vy, hin ti nhiu nc ngho
kh trn din rng li c cc chnh sch v th ch tt. Ti
sao? chnh l ln sng ci cch chnh sch v xy dng
th ch trn qua cc nc ngho trong nhng nm 1990.
Hnh 1.13 phn hng 113 nc ang pht trin tt da
trn mc ngho kh v cht lng cc chnh sch ca
h trong nm 1996
4
.
Nhng nc c c hi nhn vin tr nc ngoi ln
nm trong gc phn t th nht, l 32 nc c mc
ngho kh trn 50% v cng c cc chnh sch trn trung
bnh. Trong nhng iu kin , vin tr s gim ngho
mt cch c hiu qu, mt s nc trong gc phn t ny
l nhng nc ngho nht th gii v d nh tipia,
Ugana, Mali v n . y l gc phn t Tc ng ln
ca vin tr.
Ngc li, vin tr khng c hiu qu gc phn t th
ba: 16 nc c t l ngho kh rt thp v cc chnh sch
di mc trung bnh. Khng c nhiu ngi ngho cn
gip v vin tr khng gip h c nhiu v cc chnh
sch ti cn tr vin tr lm vic .
Vi hai gc phn t cn li, vin tr cng khng cao
bng gc phn t th nht.
Ti sao? Bi v ln
sng ci cch ch nh
sch v xy dng
cc th ch trn
qua cc nc ngho
trong nhng nm
1990.
ANH GIA VIN TR
50
C 32 nc vi mc ngho kh trn 50% gc phn t
th hai, hng triu ngi ngho nhng nn kinh t ny
ang cn s gip , nhng tht khng may, mi trng
chnh sch khng c tt vin tr pht huy tc dng.
S u tin ca cng ng th gii i vi cc nc ny l
nhm gip cc nc ny thay i chnh sch, ngha l bng
cch ng gp kin thc ch khng phi cung cp ngun
ti chnh ln hn. Tt nhin lng ti chnh ln hn s to
c hi i thoi v chuyn giao kin thc mnh hn. Vin
tr cho cc nc ny cn phi c bin minh theo s ng
gp gin tip ca chng i vi nhng thay i chnh sch
ch khng phi l theo tc ng trc tip ca n trong vic
giI quyt ngho kh.
Hnh 1.12. Phn b vin tr a phng, 1970-1993
T l vin tr/GDP (%)
Thu nhp
trung bnh thp
Thu nhp thp
Qun l
tt
Qun l
km
GDP thc t u ngi
gc phn t th t l 31 nc c cc chnh sch trn
trung bnh. Vin tr c tc dng trong cc mi trng ny
nhng vin tr lm c s t hn, bi v y mc ngho
kh khng cao.
Vy, chc chn l s c mt gii php vin tr c trng
im: vin tr ti chnh cho cc nc tc ng ln gc
phn t th nht s hiu qu hn nhiu so vi cc nc
nm cc gc khc. Nhng liu c c hi vin tr c
trng im hn na so vi hin nay hay khng? Chc hn
l cc nh ti tr khi xem xt phn b ti chnh vo u
tnh n cc yu t nh t l ngho kh v cht lng
chnh sch?
ANH GIA VIN TR
51
Hnh 1.13. Ngho kh v ch nh sch, 113 nc
ang pht trin, 1996
Chnh sch ti,
ngho kh
nhiu
II
Chnh sch ti,
ngho kh t
III
Chnh sch tt,
ngho kh t
IV
Chnh sch tt,
ngho kh
nhiu
I
Ngun: Collier v Dollar 1998.
Thc ra th h cha lm c vy. xem xt vn
ny, gi nh rng cng ng th gii huy ng c
thm 10 t la vin tr v phn b vin tr ny theo t l
phn b vin tr hin ti. Khi phn b nh vy, khon vin
tr tng thm ny c th s gip 7 triu ngi thot ra khi
cnh ngho kh. Gi s thay cho vic phn b nh c, 10
t la vin tr c tp trung vo cc nc thuc gc tc
ng ln ca vin tr th tc dng s ln hn vi khong 25
triu ngi s thot ra khi cnh ngho kh (Collier v
Dollar, 1998).
Do vy khi phn b vin tr c trng im hn, ta c
th nng cao hiu qu trong vic gim ngho. S ngi
c a khi tnh trng ngho kh tng gn gp bn ln
vi cng mt lng vin tr, tt nhin nu vin tr c hiu
qu hn th lng vin tr cng s tng ln. Qu trnh gim
ngho nhanh chng l mt thch thc ton cu v tnh hiu
qu c th hin c th to ra s hu thun ln hn cho
vin tr.
Tng 10 t la vin
tr theo t l phn
b hin ti s gip 7
triu ngi thot
khi i ngho,
nhng nu vin tr
c trng Im s a
con s ny ln 25
triu ngi.
1
C ba nghin cu ny u xem xt liu chnh sch tt dn ti tng trng hay l tng trng lm ny
sinh cc chnh sch tt - v rt ra kt lun ci cch chnh sch dn ti tng trng cao hn.
2
Collier v Dollar1998 ch ra rng trong nhng nm 1990 vin tr pht huy tc dng hn trong mt
mi trng qun l tt, thng qua cc thc o rng hn i vi cc th ch, chnh sch, trong c cc
vn nh tham nhng, c ch qun l, cng bng v an sinh x hi. Vi mc ch nghin cu, thc o
rng ri ny c nhc im l khng phi thi im no cng c s liu.
3
i vi phn tch tng trng, vin tr c tnh theo GDP ngang gi sc mua (Summers v Heston
1991), cc nc thu nhp thp, gi tr ca GDP ngang gi sc mua thng cao gp ba ln GDP theo
mc gi ni a, v gi cc hng ha phi mu dch cc nc ngho rt thp. Cc nc ang pht trin
ANH GIA VIN TR
52
bnh qun nhn c vin tr vo khong 2% so vi GDP theo ngang gi sc mua. Trong khi nu xc
nh theo gi ni a th con s ny c th l 6-7% GDP.
4
Thc o v chnh sch c thit lp xc nh hnh ny l nh gi v chnh sch v th ch
quc gia ca Ngn hng th gii. Thc o ny c nhiu b phn hn so vi ch s qun l trong nghin
cu ca Burnside - Dollar, k c cc lnh vc nh cc chnh sch x hi v h thng an sinh. Thc o
ny c u im l n xem xt rt nhiu nc v lun lun c cp nht, nhng n khng phi l mt
thc o nht qun trong cc thi k lch s khc nhau.
ANH GIA VIN TR
53
Chng 2
Vin tr c th lm b cho
cc ch nh sch tt
C ch qun l tt, n nh kinh t v m, nh nc
php quyn v hn ch tham nhng s dn ti tng trng
cao v gim ngho. N cng to ra mt mi trng tt
vin tr gp phn gim ngho. Trong khi mi nm vin tr
tng ln 10 t la th c khong 25 triu ngi c th
thot khi tnh trng ngho kh, cuc tn cng ngho kh
quy m ln hn trn phm vi ton cu s i hi phi xy
dng th ch v ci cch chnh sch mnh hn na. Trong
giai on gia nhng nm 1980 n gia nhng nm 1990
cht lng chnh sch ca cc nc ang pht trin c
nhng tin b rt ln. Mt ci thin tng ng c th s
tng pht trin ca cc nc ang pht trin thm mt
im phn trm v gip 60 triu ngi thot khi vc su
ca ngho kh trong mt nm. Cha kha thnh cng l ci
cch chnh sch v kh nng xy dng th ch. Kt hp
tng vi ng tin s lm c nhiu vic hn so vi ch
ring ng tin.
Trong chng ny chng ta xem xt mi quan h gia
vin tr v ci cch chnh sch mc kinh t v m v
mc ngnh ca nn kinh t. Vin tr nhn c c tc
ng ti cc chnh sch ca cc nc hay khng? Mt s
nh ph bnh bo th cho rng cc khon ti tr s dn ti
cc chnh sch ti. Bng chng l g? Chng ta cng xem
xt cc khon tn dng trn c s chnh sch (hoc c iu
kin) v mc m cc khon tn dng ny gip ci thin
cc chnh sch kinh t ca cc nc ang pht trin. Sau
, chng ta tp trung vo cc c ch v hnh vin tr
tc ng n cc chnh sch - vic ph bin cc tng,
vic o to th h lnh o tng lai, vic khuyn khch
cc cuc tranh lun v chnh sch trong mt x hi dn s.
C th bin lun rng y l mt trong nhng vai tr quan
trng nht ca vin tr.
Tuy vy, kh c th khi qut ha v vin tr v chnh
sch. Th nht, khng phi l cc nc nhn nhiu vin
tr lun c chnh sch ti, ng ngc nhin l gn nh
khng h c quan h gia lng vin tr vi cc chnh
sch. Th hai, cc khon tn dng c iu kin em li
Trong giai on t
gia nhng nm
1980 n gia nhng
nm 1990, cht
lng ch nh sch
cc nc ang pht
trin c nhng
tin b rt ln.
ANH GIA VIN TR
54
mt kt qu khng ng nht. Nhiu nc khi xng
cc chng trnh ci cch nghim tc, v cc khon tn
dng iu chnh c cu thnh cng trong vic h tr
cc chng trnh ci cch ny v duy tr c nhng thay
i chnh sch. ng thi, tn dng iu chnh c cu
cng tht bi nhng nc khng c qu trnh ci cch
trong nc mnh. Nu khng c s t vn ng cc
nc, th vin tr nc ngoi khng th l thc y qu
trnh ci cch. Sau cng, mt phn l suy on, cc
nghin cu tnh hung cho thy vin tr c th ng mt
vai tr quan trng l khuyn khch ci cch trong mt
thi gian kh khn v ko di. Vin tr gip o to
nhiu nh lnh o nc ngoi, mt khon u t ch
th hin trong chnh sch sau 20 nm hoc hn na. Cng
c nhiu trng hp vin tr nc ngoi lm dy ln
cc cuc tranh lun v chnh sch trong x hi dn s,
nhng li kh o lng c tc ng.
T n dng c iu
kin em li kt qu
tt nhng nc m
ci cch c c s
ng h nghim tc t
trong nc.
Cc khon tn dng em li kt qu cao nhng ni ci
cch c trong nc ng h mnh. Tuy nhin, ni chung,
cc nh ti tr khng xt duyt k lng cho tn dng
c iu kin. Vi cc nc c chnh sch ti hoc khng
c xu hng ci cch t trong nc th cn phi tm cch
lm xut hin cc nh ci cch v s vn ng ci cch
t bn trong, nhng vic ny khng d dng. Cc khon tn
dng iu chnh khng phi l cc cng c hu dng v
mt ny v i khi chng cn phn tc dng. Trong mt
mi trng kh khn nh vy, vai tr ca vin tr l o
to cc nh lnh o cho cc th h sau v khuyn khch
cc cuc tranh lun v chnh sch trong ton x hi dn s,
cng nh l chia s nhng thng tin v cc chnh sch.
ng tin - li hay hi i vi ci cch?
Cc nh khoa hc x hi tranh lun rt nhiu v vai tr
ca vin tr chnh thc trong vic h tr ci cch. Nu ci
cch chnh sch c nhng chi ph, tn tht, thit hi ngn
hn tc ng ti mt b phn no ca dn c th vin tr
nc ngoi c th gip loi b nhng ci cch ny. Chnh
sch n nh ho thng i hi phi c s iu chnh
ngn sch ko theo tng thu hoc gim dch v cng cng
cho mt nhm ngi no . T do ha thng mi gy
tn hi cho doanh nghip v cng nhn trong cc ngnh
trc kia c bo h. Ci cch doanh nghip nh nc v
t nhn ha thng gy ra tnh trng tht nghip tm thi.
ANH GIA VIN TR
55
Nu mt chnh ph mun thc hin nhng ci cch ny th
vin tr nc ngoi c th gip trang tri cc chi ph
iu chnh.
Mt nghin cu gn y phn tch mt s nc ci
cch kinh t hu chin nh Blivia, Chil, c, Ixraen,
Mhic, Ba Lan v Th Nh K (Sachs 1994). Trong mi
trng hp, vin tr gp phn quan trng mc d tt c
cc chnh ph u cam kt thc hin ci cch trc khi c
cc khon vin tr quy m ln. Nghin cu ny kt lun
rng vin tr gip "cc chnh ph duy tr thi gian
gii quyt cc vn " (tr. 512). Hn na, vin tr nc
ngoi tng cng tc dng ca cc ci cch chnh sch i
vi tng trng, do vy tng mi li so vi chi ph. iu
ny tng kh nng ci cch c duy tr v pht trin.
Tuy nhin, cc nghin cu khc ch ra rng Vin tr
cng c th gip cho cc chnh ph ti sng st (Rodrik,
1996). tranh lun, ngi ta c th cp t nht l cc
trng hp m Sachs dng th hin mi lin h gia
vin tr v ci cch b tr hon... Mt trong nhng lun
im truyn thng v ci cch Hn Quc v i Loan
(Trung Quc) trong nhng nm 1960 l nhng ci cch ny
din ra trn quy m ln bi v ngun vin tr ln ca
M trc y (nhng nm 1950) khng cn na (tr. 31).
Burnside v Dollar nghin cu mi quan h gia
vin tr vi cc ch s v chnh sch v m v chnh sch
thng mi ca 56 nc chn mu. Trc tin h ch ra
rng cc chnh sch c th c gii thch bng c im
ca mt nc, nh l php quyn, s phn ho sc tc (c
lin quan ti cc chnh sch ti) hoc s bt n v chnh tr
(cng c lin h ti chnh sch ti). Khi thm bin s vin
tr vo phn tch ny th vin tr khng c nh hng g
n ch s chnh sch. iu ny khng ph nh quan im
ca Sachs cho rng vin tr trong mt s trng hp gp
phn vo ci cch - m n gin l bi vin tr h tr
cc chnh ph c chnh sch ti bng mc h tr cc chnh
ph ang tin hnh ci cch.
Tuy khng c mi quan h gia lng vin tr m cc
nc nhn c vi trnh ca cc chnh sch ca h,
song vin tr vn c th h tr cc thay i v chnh sch.
Nu cc nh ti tr d kin tt v "thi im bc ngot"
v tng cc khon vin tr ngay trc ci cch th chng ta
cng s thy vin tr ang chy vo cc nc c chnh
sch ti nhng vin tr phi dn n ci cch. Alesina v
Dollar (1998) iu tra kh nng ny. Trong mt mu 60
Vin tr h tr
cc ch nh ph c
ch nh sch ti bng
mc h tr cc
ch nh ph ang tin
hnh ci cch.
ANH GIA VIN TR
56
nc, h tm ra 87 tnh hung trong vin tr tng t
bin (mt s thay i ln so vi nhng g m cc nc ny
nhn c trc ) ch 6 trong s 87 tnh hung trn,
vin tr tng ko theo ci cch. Ngc li trong 92 trng
hp vin tr gim mnh c 16 trng hp ko theo ci
cch. Do vy, ci cch thng pht sinh sau khi vin tr
gim ch khng phi sau khi vin tr tng. Nhng im
chnh ni bt trong nghin cu ny l mi quan h gia s
thay i vin tr vi ci cch chnh sch l rt nh, yu.
Ni chung, khng phi cc nh ti tr nh gi chnh
xc cc "thi im bc ngot" v tng cng vin tr
trc khi xy ra cc cuc ci cch.
Mi quan h bin i gia vin tr v chnh sch c th
c xem xt tng nc ring l. V d Dmbia l mt
chng c cho quan im rng vin tr cho php cc chnh
ph tr hon ci cch. Cc chnh sch Dmbia trc kia
ti v giai on 1970-1993 li cng ti hn, cho d vy,
s lng vin tr m nc ny nhn c tng khng
ngng - vo u nhng nm 1990 s vin tr t 11%
GDP thc t (hnh 2.1).
Tuy nhin, ng vi mi Dmbia li c mt Gana. Gana
nhn rt t vin tr khi nc ny c chnh sch ti -
nhng li nhn c s ng h mnh hn k t khi nc
ny tin hnh ci cch (hnh 2.2). Cc nghin cu tnh
hung v Gana ni chung u nhn ra rng vin tr nc
ngoi gip nc ny cng c mt chng trnh ci cch
tt. Trong 56 nc c Burnside v Dollar chn lm mu,
nhng s khc bit ny trit tiu ln nhau: vin tr v
chnh sch khng lin quan vi nhau. Khi a cc bin s
khc c coi l c nh hng n chnh sch vo phn
tch th vn khng thy lin h gia vin tr v chnh sch.
Do vy, khng c mt mi quan h n gin gia s
lng vin tr m cc nc nhn c vi cht lng cc
chnh sch ca cc nc ny. Tuy nhin, trong mt s
trng hp vin tr c th vn gp phn ci cch chnh
sch, thng qua cc iu kin t ra hoc thng qua vic
ph bin tng mi.
Dmbia, cc
ch nh sch cng
ti hn khi nc
ny nhn cng
nhiu vin tr...
Hnh 2.1. Dmbia: Vin
tr v ch nh sch
Chnh sch
Vin tr
B
n
h

t
h
n
g
K
m
Vin tr theo
%GDP
Ch s chnh sch
Ngun: Dollar v Easterly 1998.
thc lm ch - tin cng khng th mua c
Nu vin tr c th tr hon cng nh khuyn khch ci
cch th ti sao khng t iu kin c nhn vin tr l ci
cch chnh sch? Suy cho cng, s h tr ti chnh ca IMF
ANH GIA VIN TR
57
v cc khon tn dng iu chnh c cu ca Ngn hng Th
gii ch c gii ngn khi cc bin php ci cch c thc
hin. Cho d y l mt b phn ca ngun ti chnh chnh
thc, nhiu nh ti tr vn ch n cc chng trnh iu
chnh c cu khi quyt nh phn b vin tr.
Tuy nhin, v nhiu l do khc nhau, iu kin vin tr c
th khng gip ci thin cc chnh sch c lu di. Th
nht l kh khn trong khu gim st. V d mt iu kin
n gin l thm ht ngn sch khng c vt qu mt
mc nht nh. Thm ht ngn sch khng ch b nh
hng bi cc chnh sch ca chnh ph m cn do cc c
sc ngoi tm kim sot ca chnh ph. Do vy, v mt c
sc no m mt nc khng th thc hin c mt mc
tiu tha thun; trn thc t, tht bi ny l cn thit v
mt chnh sch tt trong mt mi trng ny cha chc
l mt chnh sch tt trong mt mi trng khc. Vic cc
mc tiu v chnh sch t ra c c thc hin hay khng
vn cn c nh gi ch quan. nh gi ch quan cng quan
trng hn khi ci cch tr nn phc tp hn v mt th ch.
Kh khn th hai i vi vic t ra cc iu kin l cc
iu kin ch c hiu lc trong thi k ang din ra cc
chng trnh iu chnh. Mt chnh ph ang gp kh khn
v ti chnh c th ng thc hin ci cch v tin hnh ci
cch i ly vin tr c iu kin. Nu khng c mt cam
kt mnh m v ci cch, cc ci cch ny c th v thng
l s b o ngc khi chng trnh kt thc.
Vn th ba, v c th l vn nghim trng nht
lin quan n ng lc ca cc t chc ti tr. Vic gii
ngn cc khon vin tr l mt trong nhng mc tiu c
bn ca cc t chc ny. V vic gim st cc ci cch
chnh sch i hi mt s nh gi ch quan, nn cc nh
ti tr c xu hng xu xoa coi l cc chnh ph ang c
nhiu n lc ci cch - iu ny c th ng hay sai - v
gii ngn cc khon vin tr. Tp ch Nh Kinh t m t
hnh vi ny ca cc nh ti tr nh sau:
Trong mt s nm qua Knia thc hin mt nghi
l thn thin vi cc nh ti tr ca h. Cc bc nh
sau: th nht, Knia dnh c cc cam kt vin tr
hng nm. Th hai: chnh ph bt u thay i quan
im, t b ci cch kinh t v c thi rt c
on. Th ba, hi ngh cc nc ti tr vi s c mt
ca cc nc vin tr ang m c chun b khin
trch Knia. Th t, Knia ni xoa du mt cch
dng di. Th nm, cc nh ti tr ngui gin v li
cam kt vin tr v ton b iu nhy li bt u tr
... nhng Gana
vin tr tng song
song vi cht lng
cc ch nh sch tt
hn.
ANH GIA VIN TR
58
li (s ngy 19-8-1995, tr. 37).
C mt ni cc nghin cu v tn dng iu chnh c cu
v tc dng ca chng i vi chnh sch (V d: Mosley
1987, Mosley v cc tc gi khc 1995, Thomas 1991). Tt
c cc nghin cu ny kt lun vi s nghi ng v kh nng
cc iu kin t ra c th thc y ci cch cc nc
khng h c nh hng ci cch. Mt nghin cu rt ra
kt lun rng chu Phi cc khon tn dng iu chnh c
cu ca Ngn hng Th gii c tc ng qu t, khng
nh Ngn hng Th gii mong i ti cc chnh sch ca
cc nc nhn vin tr (Mosley v cc tc gi khc 1995).
Vn chnh l Ngn hng Th gii qu phn khch khi
gii ngn cc khon tn dng - v chnh v th h mong mun
nhn thy nhng n lc ci cch ngay c nhng ni khng
h c cc n lc ny. Trn thc t trong s cc khon tn
dng iu chnh c chn lm mu nghin cu ch 53% cc
iu kin t ra c tha mn, tuy vy hu ht cc khon tn
dng vn c gii ngn. V d, Dmbia nhn 18 khon
tn dng iu chnh c cu trong khong thi gian 1966-1969
v 1990-93 trong khi cc chnh sch ca nc ny cng ngy
cng ti t hn (hnh 2.1). Ngn hng Th gii nm ln
cung cp vin tr nhm h tr cng mt chng trnh ci
cch chnh sch nng nghip Knia. Mi ln nh vy ci
cch hoc khng c thc hin hoc kt qu li b o
ngc, trong khi tt c cc khon tn dng vn c gii ngn
y . Bi hc l g? Mt khon tn dng c iu kin
khng th bo m rng ci cch s c tin hnh hoc duy
tr c lu di.
D vy cc khon tn dng iu chnh c cu ca IMF v
Ngn hng Th gii h tr nhiu chng trnh ci cch
thnh cng. Blivia l mt v d tt v cc khon tn dng
iu chnh c cu cung cp ti chnh cho mt chnh ph
quyt tm thc hin ci cch; nc ny s h tr tng dn
theo ci cch chnh sch (Lopez 1997; hnh 2.3). Phn ln
ngun ti chnh tng ln nc ny l thng qua tn dng
iu chnh c cu. Mt bo co kim im v tn dng da
trn chnh sch rt ra kt lun: "R rng l cc khon tn
dng c iu kin ch pht huy tt khi cc chnh sch ca
nc nhn tn dng, ch yu l do cc nc ny t hoch
nh vi h tr k thut t bn ngoi, c nh hng r rng
nhm gii quyt cc yu cu ci cch, thc hin cc thay i
v chnh sch v tip cn cng ng quc t tranh th s
h tr v ti chnh nhm t c mc tiu trn (Ranis 1995,
tr. 10).
Hnh 2.2. Gana: Vin tr
v ch nh sch
Chnh sch
Vin tr
B
n
h

t
h
n
g
K
m
Vin tr theo
%GDP
Ch s chnh sch
Ngun: Dollar v Easterly
1998.
Blivia, t n dng
iu chnh c cu
cung cp ti ch nh
cho mt ch nh ph
quyt tm tin hnh
ci cch.
Trong mt tng kt ni b, Ngn hng Th gii cng
ANH GIA VIN TR
59
rt ra mt kt lun tng t - " thc lm ch" hay s
ng h ci cch mnh trong nc l iu kin cn thit
cho s thnh cng ca cc khon tn dng iu chnh c
cu. Trc nm 1990, khong 1/3 cc khon tn dng iu
chnh c cu khng em li ci cch nh mong i. Vic
thiu " thc lm ch" hoc thiu cam kt ca nc i vay
l mt nhn t quan trng gy ra nhng tht bi ny
(Branson v Jayarajah 1995).
T s ln cc khon tn dng iu chnh c cu ca
Ngn hng Th gii c chn lm mu nghin cu (105
trng hp ci cch c thc hin thnh cng v 55 trng
hp khng thnh cng), mt nghin cu gn y thy
rng mt s c im v chnh tr v th ch c quan h vi
cc chng trnh ci cch thnh cng (Dollar v Svensson
1997). Quan trng nht l 52% cc chnh ph tin hnh ci
cch thnh cng l cc chnh ph c bu ra mt cch dn
ch, trong khi ch 29% s cc chnh ph tht bi trong ci
cch l cc nc c bu c mt cch dn ch. Cc chnh
ph cm quyn trong thi gian di kh c th thc hin ci
cch thnh cng. Hn na s bt n chnh tr c mi quan h
tng tc cht ch vi cc tht bi trong ci cch (bng 2.1).
Nhng bin s kinh t, chnh tr d on ng kt qu
ca 75% cc khon tn dng iu chnh c cu (ph lc 2).
Bng 2.1. c im ca cc chng trnh iu chnh
c cu Thnh cng v tht bi
Thnh cng Tht bi
Thng k quc gia
c bu dn ch 52% 29%
Khng hong chnh ph 9% 24%
trong thi k ci cch
Cc bin s Ngn hng Th gii
Chun b (tun cng ca nhn vin) 143 135
Phn tch trc (tun cng ca nhn vin) 84 80
S cc iu kin rng buc 45 47
Quy m tn dng (triu USD) 169 166
Ngun: Dollar v Svensson 1998.
Hnh 2.3. Blivia: Vin tr
v ch nh sch
Chnh sch
Vin tr
B
n
h

t
h
n
g
K
m
Vin tr theo
%GDP
Ch s chnh sch
Nghin cu ny cng xem xt cc nhn t thuc tm
kim sot ca Ngn hng Th gii, bao gm quy m khon
tn dng iu chnh, s iu kin, cc ngun lc s dng
chun b khon tn dng v cc ngun lc dnh cho vic phn
tch trong bn nm trc khi cp tn dng. Nghin cu v tm
ra rng cc bin s "n lc ngn hng" nu trn l nh nhau
i vi c cc chng trnh iu chnh thnh cng v chng
trnh tht bi (xem bng 2.1) khi tt c cc bin s ny c
a vo phn tch th r rng l ci cch thnh cng ph
ANH GIA VIN TR
60
thuc c bn vo cc c th v th ch v chnh tr ca mt
nc.
Trc y, Ngn hng Th gii khng xem xt mt cch
y rng s thnh cng hay tht bi ca ci cch ph thuc
rt nhiu vo chnh n lc ca mt nc. Dmbia l mt
trng hp in hnh: trong nhng nm 1980 Ngn hng Th
gii duyt bn khon tn dng iu chnh c cu vi tng s
tin l 212 triu la v cc khon tn dng ny gn nh
c gii ngn hon ton. Sau khi hon thnh gii ngn, Ngn
hng Th gii nh gi ba trong bn khon tn dng trn l
tht bi ngha l ci cch m cc khon tn dng ny h tr
khng c thc hin nh mong i. Cc kt qu nghin
cu ca Dollar v Svensson ch ra rng iu ny l nhn tin.
Cc iu kin t ra cho Dmbia thi gian khng c nh
hng ci cch. Chnh ph Dmbia l mt chnh ph khng
c bu c mt cch dn ch, nm quyn qu lu - khng
th l mt nh ci cch. Khon tn dng u tin cho Dmbia
thi gian l ra phi to tin cho ci cch, nhng ngi ta
phi tha nhn rng vic cp lin tc cc khon tn dng
iu chnh sau ny Dmbia khng phi l cch s dng
ngun lc tt nht. Cc nh ti tr dn dn nhn ra bi hc
ny v thn trng hn trong vic la chn, cung cp cc
khon vin tr c iu kin. Trong giai on 1990-1995, t l
thnh cng ca cc khon tn dng iu chnh c cu ca Ngn
hng Th gii tng ln ti 76% (Ngn hng Th gii, 1997a).
Nhng nghin cu trn nu ra rng ci cch chnh sch
ph thuc rt nhiu vo cc c th th ch v chnh tr ca
cc nc. Mt iu kin tin quyt cho s thnh cng l
thc lm ch qu trnh ci cch ca cc nc nhn tn
dng. Nhng mt khi chng trnh ci cch nghim tc
c khi xng th cc khon vin tr c th gp phn
cng c chng trnh ny.
Trc y, Ngn
hng Th gii khng
xem xt mt cch
y s thnh
cng hay tht bi
ca ci cch ph
thuc rt nhiu vo
ch nh n lc ca
mt nc.
Khuyn kh ch ci cch
Nghin cu thc t ch ra rng ci cch trong tm
vi ca cc nc thu nhp thp c th tng pht trin
ca cc nc ny ln 2 n 3 im phn trm. Vi tng
trng di hn ca hu ht cc nc ny t 0 n 1%, th
y cng l mt s ci thin rt ln. i vi nhiu nc
ngho nht th gii - cc nc tt hu qu xa - vic tin
hnh ci cch chnh sch mt cch nghim tc c l l vn
quan trng nht trong chng trnh ngh s ca h.
ng thi, vic to nn mng cho ci cch khng phi l
ANH GIA VIN TR
61
d dng v cc khon tn dng c iu kin cp cho cc
nc c mi trng th ch v chnh sch ti b tht bi.
Do vy, liu cc nh ti tr c th thc y ci cch chnh
sch trong cc mi trng b bp mo nghim trng
khng? V d nh Mianma, Nigiria, hay Cng ha dn
ch Cngg. Hay n gin ch l lc u b tay?
R rng khng th chp nhn vic b ri cc nc ang
kh khn. Khi m t l ngho kh ang gim xung cc
nc ang pht trin c cc chnh sch tt th cc nc c
cc chnh sch b bp mo s chim t phn ngy cng tng
trong tng s ngi ngho trn th gii. Cu tr li l g?
c cc chng c chng t rng cc nh ti tr c th thay i
tnh th m khng cn mt lng ti chnh quy m ln. Cc
n lc v hnh c chi ph thp c th thc y ci cch chnh
sch trong mt thi gian di - bng cch chia x nhng
tng pht trin, o to th h lnh o tng lai v khuyn
khch vic tranh lun v chnh sch trong mt x hi dn s.
Cc c quan pht trin ng mt vai tr quan trng
trong vic truyn b thng tin v chnh sch hiu qu c
cp kinh t v m v cp ngnh c th nh ci cch
gio dc, y t, lng hu (khung 2.1). Nhng chnh sch
tt khng phi l mt ci g c quyt nh ch quan
theo Ngn hng Th gii m l cc bi hc rt ra t kinh
nghim ca cc nc ang pht trin. Khch quan m ni
c ch qun l tt chnh l nhng g thc y s tng
trng v gim bt ngho kh cc nc ang pht trin.
Khung 2.1 Ci cch ch lng hu
Cc nn kinh t ang pht trin v qu
c ch lng hu cng cng khng bn
vng - ngha l ch ng gp qu
lng hu ch pht huy vai tr khi s lao
ng ang lm vic nhiu, s ngi ngh
hu t; nhng ch ny khng c tc
dng khi s ngi ngh hu nhiu hn s
lao ng ang lm vic. Trnh khng
hong ngi cao tui, mt bo co ca
Ngn hng Th gii, cng cc trao i
kin ny sinh t bo co ny v s tr gip
k thut l mt v d tt v cch thc vin
tr quy m nh c th khuyn khch ci
cch chnh sch. Cn c vo bn bo co,
cc nh ti tr gip nhiu nc nh
chentina, Trung Quc, Hunggari,
Mhic, Ba Lan v Urugoay nghin cu
cc hu qu v ti chnh v phn phi
mang tnh di hn ca h thng bo tr
tui gi. Cc nhn vin c hiu bit v ci
cch lng hu thnh cng - v d nh
Chil - c s dng trao i, ph
bin cc kin thc quan trng. Mc tiu
ca s h tr k thut l gip cc nc lp
m hnh m phng ch lng hu hin
ti ca h v tc ng ca cc gii php
ci cch. Trong nhiu trng hp, nhng
phn tch trn tr thnh ch cho cc
cuc tho lun rng ri v ci cch lng
hu v l mt phng php chnh ph
thuyt phc cng chng rng ci cch l
cn thit.
ANH GIA VIN TR
62
Mt s chnh sch pht trin then cht (n nh kinh t
v m v m ca) c bit n nh l "tha thun
Oasinhtn". y l mt iu ma mai bi v trong nhng
nm 1970, cc t chc nh Ngn hng Th gii khng
thc y cc chnh sch ny. Trn thc t, Ngn hng Th
gii ng h cc chnh sch quc gia ch ngha v d nh
cc chnh sch ca Julius Nyerere Tandania. Tuy nhin,
qua kinh nghim th gii ngi ta bit rng gii php
ny khng em li s pht trin n nh. ng thi cc nh
hoch nh chnh sch nh T.S. Chiang v T.C. Liu i
Loan (Trung Quc) cng th nghim cc chnh sch
khng theo kiu ca cng ng pht trin quc t.
Ti tn nhng nm u thp nin 1980, cc c quan
pht trin mi bt u nh gi y gi tr ca c ch
qun l kinh t v m tt v bt u thc y t do ha
thng mi, khuyn khch cc nn kinh t ng hc tp
thnh cng ca cc nn kinh t m. Kh c th nh gi
tc ng ca vic trao i cc tng ny. Sachs v
Warner (1995) nghin cu 35 nc tin hnh t do ha
thng mi trong 10 nm qua. Cc nc ny chc chn u
chu nh hng ca s thnh cng ca cc nc khc. Cc
c quan pht trin c ng mt vai tr quan trng trong
qu trnh ph bin kin thc v cc chnh sch tt khng?
Chc chn l c, nhng khng th chng minh c theo
mt cch ny hay cch khc.
Vin tr pht trin cng c th thc y vic ph bin
kin thc v pht trin bng cch cung cp ti chnh o
to sinh vin nc ngoi - nghin cu kinh t hc, lut
hc, qun l hnh chnh v cc mn khc. Nhng sinh vin
sau khi hc nc ngoi quay tr v thng c ng gp
quan trng trong qu trnh ci cch chnh sch vi t cch
trc tip l cc quan chc chnh ph hoc gin tip thng
qua cc hot ng cc trng i hc hoc cc t chc
khc. Mt v d ni ting l nhm cu sinh vin Berkeley
thit k ci cch ca Innsia vo cui nhng nm
1960 v u 1970. Hn 10 nm qua, ci cch cc nc
M Latinh u do cc b trng tng nghin cu kinh
t nc ngoi thit k v thc hin. C quan pht trin
quc t ca M c mt chng trnh ni ting o to
hu ht cc quan chc chnh ph Btxoana.
Mt nghin cu kinh t chnh tr hc v ci cch kt
lun rng c th khi qut ha v s thnh cng trong ci
cch ca cc nc ang pht trin (Williamson 1994, tr.
589). Quan trng nht l mt "i ng cc nh kinh t
hng mnh". Ni chung, cc thnh vin quan trng ca cc
cc nc m cc
yu t ch nh tr
trong nc khi
ng mt phong tro
ci cch, th cc nh
kinh t v cng chc
c o to tt l
yu t rt quan trng
i vi s thnh
cng ca ci cch.
ANH GIA VIN TR
63
i ng ny nhng nc ang tin hnh ci cch u
c o to v kinh t nc ngoi, vi s h tr ca cc
nh ti tr hoc cc t chc phi chnh ph nh Qu Ford.
Tuy vy o to nc ngoi khng phi l phng
thuc bch bnh cho ci cch, thay vo khi cc yu t
chnh tr trong nc bt u khi xng phong tro ci
cch th cc nh kinh t v cng chc c o to tt l
yu t rt quan trng i vi thnh cng ca ci cch.
Trong nhiu trng hp c nhiu ngi c o to
nhng khng c s dng mt cch c hiu qu. Mt
nghin cu gn y v vin tr chu Phi do Hi ng
pht trin hi ngoi tin hnh xem xt cc trng hp
thnh cng hoc khng thnh cng:
Cc chnh ph gp kh khn trong vic gi li cc
nhn vin c trnh cao do nhng vng mc trong
qun l ni b v do mc lng thp ca khu vc
nh nc. Lm vic cho nh nc khng em li
mc lng tha ng so vi lm vic trong khu vc
t nhn. V d Tandania v Knia trong nhng
nm 1970 mt ngi lm vic cho nh nc c thu
nhp cao hn 14 v 11-16% so vi ngi lm cng
cng vic c cng kinh nghim v trnh o to
nhng lm vic trong khu vc t nhn. Tuy nhin
n cui nhng nm 1980, ch bo tr thiu cn
nhc cng vi lm pht cao v khng hong ngn
sch ko di gy kh khn cho thu nhp ca cn
b cng nhn vin. S cng chc Tandania tng
t 135.000 nm 1970 ln 302.000, nhng lng ca
ngi lm cng cho nh nc gim 94% so vi sc
mua trc y. Cc chnh ph chu Phi gp kh
khn trong vic gi cc nhn vin c nng lc, c
bit l nhng ngi c trnh v tay ngh cao. Do
vy mt d n do CIDA ti tr o to 13 thc s
kinh t cho Knia trong giai on t 1985-1991, tuy
vy trong vng mt nm, 10 ngi tm vic lm
bn ngoi v 3 ngi khc va tr v t Canaa ang
tm kim vic lm c mc lng cao hn khu vc
t nhn. Vn n gin ch l v cc cng chc
chnh ph c trnh thc s ch nhn c mc
lng bng 1/5 s thu nhp nu h i lm cho mt
trong nhng cng ty t vn qun l quc t Nairbi
hoc mt n v thng tr ca cc t chc vin tr.
Nhn chung chu Phi, cc vin chc chp nhn
mt cng vic trong khu vc t nhn hoc di c ra
Cng chc ch nh
ph c trnh thc
s ch nhn c mc
lng bng 1/5 s
thu nhp nu h i
lm cho mt trong
nhng cng ty t vn
qun l quc t
Nairbi.
ANH GIA VIN TR
64
nc ngoi. Theo t chc Lin hp quc, trong thi
k 1986-1990 khong 50.000 - 60.000 nhn vin
qun l c trnh cao v trung bnh chu Phi
ri khi t nc. Trong nhiu ngi i lm vic
cho cc t chc vin tr do s thu ht ca mc lng
cao gp 5-10 ln mc lng trc y h nhn
c. V d Knia, mt d n ca Ngn hng Th
gii thu 8 ngi Knia, d n ny tr lng cho
h t 3000-6000la/thng. Mc lng ny cao hn
nhiu ln so vi mc lng 250 la m cc nh
kinh t cao cp lm vic trong chnh ph nhn c.
mt nc khng b nh hng ca khng hong
kinh t nh Btxoana, khi nim o c to ra
mt ng thi hon ton khc. Hng mc lng
khng n ni no v c cung cp cc phng tin
thc hin cng vic gi c cc cng chc
chnh ph tip tc cng vic ca h. Khng him
nhng th k chuyn nghip lm vic hn 10 nm
lin, cho d gn y tin lng trong khu vc t
nhn tng ln v mt s cng chc b nh
nc, c rt t ngi di c ra nc ngoi. Mt bo
co nghin cu tnh hung ghi li li nhn xt ca
USAID rng: Trong s 1300 ngi Btxoana nhn
bng thc s M k t khi nc ny ginh c lp
ch c 3 ngi khng tr v nc (van de Walle v
Johnston 1996, tr. 89 - 92).
Vic khuyn kh ch
tranh lun v ch nh
sch trong x hi
dn s l mt cch
h tr pht trin
c th tc ng ti
ci cch ch nh
sch.
R rng cc quan chc c o to cn thn c th l mt
u vo quan trng a ra cc chnh sch tt (Btxoana l
mt chng c). Tuy nhin, nu c cc yu t khc theo hng
duy tr cc chnh sch li thi th cc quan chc c o to
c th s ri b khu vc nh nc (cho d h vn c th gp
phn cho qu trnh pht trin). Nhng nhng ngi ny thng
di c ra nc ngoi, trong trng hp vic o to s khng
em li li ch cho mt nc nh mong i.
Vic khuyn khch tranh lun v chnh sch trong x hi
dn s l mt cch h tr pht trin c th tc ng ti
ci cch chnh sch. iu ny khng d thc hin, lnh o
cc nc c cc chnh sch ti c duy tr nhng chnh sch
ny v cc quyn li ca mnh. Cc ch thng mi, t
gi hi oi, gi c trong nng nghip b bp mo nghim
trng c th gy ra tham nhng v kim li bt chnh trong
mt nhm ngi c quyn lc. Trong nhng trng hp ny
cc nh ti tr nn tm kim c hi tip xc vi b my cng
chc bc trung - nhng ngi ny thng thin v k tr hn
l chnh tr - v cc t chc ca x hi dn s.
ANH GIA VIN TR
65
V d Ucraina, trong mt thi k tn ti ca cc
chnh sch ti, Ngn hng Th gii quyt nh rng cho
vay s phn tc dng. Tn dng s tr hon ci cch lu
hn, do cn c s can thip khc - v d nh gip tng
cng cng tc gio dc cng cng trong chnh ph v cho
ton x hi dn s. Cc c quan thng tin, cc nh ci cch
trong chnh ph, cc thnh vin quc hi, cc t chc phi
chnh ph v khu vc t nhn c tham gia cc hi tho
chnh, cc cuc mt tinh ton thnh ph trn c nc, cc
tip xc hng tun vi cc c quan thng tin thng bo
v cc vn ci cch kinh t v th ch. Mt nh v ch
ca chng trnh ny l Thng c Ngn hng Trung ng
Ucraina. ng ta tham gia rt tch cc cc chng trnh
trn v thng bo trc ton b dn chng rng iu m
Ngn hng Th gii lm trong nhng nm u thi k
qu nhm thc y ci cch v pht trin l khng cung
cp cc khon tn dng iu chnh c cu m tp trung
thc hin cc chng trnh gio dc cng cng.
C t kt qu nghin cu kt lun rng vic trao i cc
tng tt, gi sinh vin ra nc ngoi o to hay khuyn
khch tranh lun chnh sch trong x hi dn s s dn ti
ci cch chnh sch v hot ng tt hn cc nc ang
pht trin. Nhng cc nghin cu tnh hung nu ra
rng cc nhn t ny rt quan trng, hn na cc hot ng
ny cng s dng rt t cc ngun lc ti chnh.
Nu cam kt - cung cp tin,
nu khng cam kt - cung cp tng
Vic cung cp mt lng tin ln cho mt nc c cc
chnh sch ti khng em li mt gi tr no, ngay c khi
nc ny cam kt thc hin cc iu kin ca mt chng
trnh ci cch. Vic cp tn dng iu chnh c cu cho cc
chnh ph khng tin hnh ci cch nghim tc tr
thnh mt vn ln ca vin tr nc ngoi.
i vi cc nc c thu nhp thp, vic khi xng ci
cch kinh t c ngha rt quan trng cho nhng tin b
trong tng lai. Nhng ngi ngoi cuc khng d g to ra
qu trnh ci cch trong nc. Vi cc nc c chnh sch
ti, cc nh ti tr nn tp trung vo cc hot ng h tr ci
cch trong di hn - nh hc bng nc ngoi, trao i cc
tng v ci cch chnh sch v pht trin, khuyn khch
tranh lun v chnh sch trong x hi dn s. Trong hu ht
Ngi ngoi cuc
khng d g to ra
qu trnh ci cch
trong nc.
ANH GIA VIN TR
66
cc trng hp, y l cc bin php tng i tit kim chi
ph, do vy khng c s mu thun vi quan im cho rng
ngun ti chnh nn tp trung ht vo cc nc ngho t
c nhng kt qu tt trong ci cch chnh sch.
Nghin cu ca chng ti cng pht hin ra rng tn
dng iu chnh c cu l phng tin hiu qu nht khi
mt chnh ph cam kt mt cch chc chn v vic tin
hnh ci cch. Tuy nhin, c mt cu hi l nu ci cch
phi c s ng h mnh t trong nc mi thnh cng th
c cn n cc khon tn dng c iu kin hay khng?
Mt nghin cu cho rng cc khon tn dng c iu kin
vn c vai tr hu ch, nhng vi iu kin cch qun l
cc khon tn dng ny phi c i mi (Collier 1997).
Trc kia cc t chc ti tr n lc "mua ci cch"
bng cch h tr cc chnh ph khng mun tin hnh ci
cch, gii php ny b tht bi. Hn na, vic s dng
cc iu kin kiu ny lm v hiu cc gi tr tim nng
ca chnh chng. Cc chnh ph thc s cam kt ci cch
c th ng vi mt s khon tn dng c iu kin rng
buc vi mt chnh sch v gip ngn cn mt s c
quyn c li trong nc. Khon tn dng s l mt
hnh thc hn ch cc chnh ph i lch khi cc chnh
sch tt v li ch thin cn.
Cc khon tn dng c iu kin cng c th l mt
cng c tn hiu hu ch. S bt n v chnh sch lm chm
tr u t. Cc khon tn dng c iu kin s ra tn hiu
cho khu vc t nhn bit rng chnh ph ang tin hnh ci
cch nghim tc v h thng cc chnh sch mi s c
duy tr. Vi cc nc c chnh sch tt, vin tr thng i
i vi vic tng u t t nhn; s kt hp gia ci cch
v vin tr nc ngoi c th tng cng lng tin ca cc
nh u t. Collier ch ra rng cch qun l cc khon tn
dng c iu kin hin nay c th lm hng tc dng dy
cng v n tn hiu ca n. Cc khon tn dng ny
khng thc hin c chc nng dy cng (bi cc khon
tn dng c gii ngn bt k ci cch c c tin
hnh hay khng) v cng khng phi l cc tn hiu ng
v tnh nghim tc ca vic ci cch (trc nm 1990, mt
phn ba cc khon tn dng b tht bi).
Vai tr ca cc t chc nh Ngn hng Th gii khng
phi l bt buc cc chnh ph lm nhng g m h khng
mun lm. Khng phi l khi Ngn hng Th gii hot ng
tch cc hn hoc tng thm ngun cho tn dng iu chnh
c cu th mt nh ci cch tht bi c th tr thnh mt nh
ci cch thnh cng. Vai tr ca cc t chc quc t l nn
c hiu qu cc
khon t n dng iu
chnh c cu cn tp
trung vo mt s
thc o thc s
quan trng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
67
trao i cc thng tin c th tc ng n s tho lun chung
ca mi x hi v ci cch chnh sch v hc cch nhn bit
cc tn hiu rng liu cc chnh ph c tin hnh ci cch
nghim tc hay khng. Cc sai st l khng th trnh khi,
nhng s thnh cng ca cc khon tn dng iu chnh c
cu phi l khong 85% ch khng phi l 67%. Ch c th
t c nhng mc tiu ny bng cc la chn cc mi
trng tt hn cho vin tr iu chnh c cu.
Collier cho rng, cch tip cn ny c hiu qu cc
khon tn dng iu chnh c cu cn phi tp trung vo mt
s thc o quan trng thc s (trong mu nghin cu ca
Dollar-Svensson trung bnh c 46 iu kin v ti a l 193
iu kin). cc khon tn dng iu chnh lm tt chc
nng dy cng cn phi c nhng s thng nht r rng
gia chnh ph v cc t chc ti tr v nhng ch tiu quan
trng v cc trng hp buc phi ngng gii ngn. cc
khon tn dng iu chnh lm tt vai tr tn hiu ca mnh,
chng phi c t l thnh cng cao (v d 85%). Lc
chng s l cc tn hiu chnh xc bo cho khu vc t nhn
bit rng chnh ph ang nhn khon tn dng ny cam
kt thc hin ci cch mt cch nghim chnh.
ANH GIA VIN TR
68
Chng 3
Tin cng quan trng -
Trong mt mi trng th ch tt
Tin cng quan trng - nhng khng theo nh cch
chng ta tng ngh. Cc d n c ti tr bi cc ngun
vin tr nc ngoi thng l nhng thnh qu quan trng
v d nhn thy, l h thng ng s, trng hc v
bnh vin, h thng cp thot nc, cc nh my in.
Nhng chng ta c th nh gi thnh cng hai cp: cp
vi m hay d n, cp ny mc thnh cng thng rt
cao; cp v m xt ti s tng trng ca ton b nn
kinh t v mc gim ngho, cp ny, nh chng 1 ch
ra, mc thnh cng thp hn rt nhiu. Nu cc ngun
vin tr l bt phn nh, li ch ca mt d n vin tr t
lin quan ti nhng li ch thc ca vic ti tr vn. Tc
ng thc t ca cc ngun vin tr ph thuc vo mt cu
hi quan trng (nhng kh c th nh gi) l: iu g
c th xy ra nu nh khng c vin tr?
Phn ln vin tr c dnh cho nhng d n nhm h
tr mt s ngnh nht nh (hnh 3.1). Liu nhng ngun
vin tr vi mc tiu nh trc ny c ti c nhng
ngnh hay khng? C th, liu nc nhn vin tr c chi
cho gio dc nhiu hn khi cc nh ti tr cp vn cho mt
d n v gio dc tr gi 1 triu la so vi trong trng hp
cc nh ti tr ch n gin cp 1 triu la h tr cho
ngn sch nh nc? Vn y khng phi l nn tham
hay vic qun l cc ngun vin tr. Thay vo , mt c
nhn - hay mt quc gia - khi nhn c cc ngun h tr
bng hin vt s iu chnh li cc khon chi tiu khc.
Nu vin tr c phn nh (mc ch s dng),
chng ta s d dng nh gi tc ng chung ca vin tr:
v n gin l tc ng tng hp ca cc d n c lp.
Nu gio dc tiu hc l quan trng, cng nhiu d n cho
lnh vc ny s cng ci thin tt tnh hnh chung. Tuy
nhin, nu vin tr l bt phn nh th vic qun l v
nh gi tc ng ca vin tr s tr nn phc tp hn rt
nhiu. Nhng g m chng ta nhn thy li khng phi l
nhng g chng ta thu c. Vic nh gi tc ng ca
vin tr khng ch i hi xem xt nhng g xy ra
trong thi gian hot ng ca d n, m cn phi nh gi
iu g c th xy ra nu nh khng c vin tr.
Hu ht cc ngun
vin tr c dnh
cho cc d n-v
hu ht vin tr
theo d n c
dnh cho nhng c
s h tng v x hi,
kinh t v qun l.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Tin cng quan trng - Trong mt mi trng th ch tt
69
Phn u ca chng ny s gii thch chi tit v tnh
bt phn nh ca vin tr. Sau chng ta s xem xt
nhng bng chng c thc v mt vi c im ca tnh
bt phn nh. Nu nc vin tr cp vn cho mt d n
u t, cho gio dc chng hn, c s no h tin rng
nhng ngun vin tr ny s:
c chnh ph s dng ch khng phi dng ti tr
cho nhng mc ch khc, v d nh b p cho vic
ct gim thu?
Ti tr cho u t ch khng phi tng chi cho tiu
dng?
Ti tr cho gio dc ch khng phi cho mt ngnh
no khc?
Nhng nc vin tr khng th bit chc rng nhng
ngun vin tr s c dnh cho ngnh m d n hng
ti. V vy, chng ta s xem xt ngha ca tnh bt phn
nh i vi vic nh gi d n.
Trn thc t, tc ng ca vic ti tr cho d n l nhm
tng chi tiu chnh ph ging ht nh trong trng hp tr
cp chung cho ngn sch. iu ny ng rng ngay c khi
cc nh ti tr h tr vn cho cc d n th vic nh gi tc
ng ca vin tr vi t cch l mt c ch chuyn giao ti
chnh ph thuc vo vic nh gi chi tiu chung ca chnh
ph - liu vn c c phn b cho nhng hot ng nhm
tng cng pht trin kinh t hay khng v hiu qu ca cc
khon chi tiu ca chnh ph. iu ny lin quan ti vic
nh gi tnh hp l trong hot ng chi tiu ca chnh ph.
Nh ni trn, nhng g m chng ta nhn thy khng
nht thit phi l nhng g chng ta thu c: iu g xy ra
nu khng c s can thip ca chnh ph?
Tnh bt phn nh c ngha nh th no trong vic
phn tch s phn b v tnh hiu qu ca chi tiu chnh ph
v trong vic qun l v nh gi cc ngun h tr pht
trin? i vi nhng quc gia chnh ph thc thi nhng
chnh sch vng chc, phn b hp l cc khon chi tiu v
cung cp nhng dch v hiu qu cao, cc nh ti tr c th
cung cp nhng ngun vin tr ln di hnh thc cc khon
h tr chung cho ngn sch, do h bit chc rng nhng
ngun h tr ny s c s dng hiu qu. nhng nc
m chnh ph v nh ti tr u c cng quan im trong
vic phn b cc khon chi tiu nhng hiu qu ca cc
khon chi tiu khng cao, vic nh gi cc d n c vin
tr v vic vin tr khng nn ch da vo s tin cp cho
tng d n c th m cn phi tnh n s ng gp ca
Hnh 3.1 Phn b cc ngun
vin tr, theo loi hnh v
ngnh
D n
Mc ch
khc
Cng nghip v cc
ngnh sn xut khc
Nng
nghip
C s h tng
v x hi v
qun l
C s h tng
kinh t
H tr
chng trnh
Vin tr
lng thc
Ngun: OECD 1998.
ANH GIA VIN TR
70
chng trong vic nng cao hiu qu chung ca chi tiu chnh
ph (xem chng 4). nhng nc m nh ti tr v chnh
ph khng ng nht quan im trong vic phn b cc
khon chi tiu v hiu qu ca chng li thp th cch tt
nht l gim vin tr v tng cng h tr cho vic hoch
nh chnh sch v xy dng th ch - cho ti khi nhng nh
ti tr thy rng vin tr ca h s ng gp cho s pht
trin.
T nh bt phn nh?
Trc ht chng ta s nghin cu mt on dn dt ngn
nhng cha ng nhiu thng tin. C nhiu chng trnh ca
chnh ph nhm h tr v thu nhp cho cc c nhn - l
nhng thu nhp gn lin vi vic mua hng ho c th hay
c tr cp di hnh thc hin vt ch khng phi bng
tin mt. Mt v d in hnh l chng trnh tem phiu
lng thc trong nh nc cp tem phiu cho ngi dn
i ly mt lng lng thc nht nh. Ngay c khi
chng trnh ny khng lm ny sinh vn tham (mi
la tr gi ca tem phiu lng thc s c i ly lng
thc), liu nhng chng trnh nh vy c tc ng mnh
hn ln tiu dng lng thc ca ngi dn so vi trng
hp h c tr cp bng tin mt hay khng?
Chng ta hy so snh hai quan im. Quan im n
gin nhng g ta nhn thy l nhng g ta thu c cho
rng nu tem phiu lng thc c dng mua lng
thc th chi tiu cho lng thc s tng ln tng ng vi
ngun thu nhp b sung t tem phiu. Quan im bt
phn nh cho rng, nhng ngi c cp tem phiu
lng thc khng suy ngh n gin nh vy v h c
nhng mc tiu ring ca mnh. Trong trng hp nh vy
ngi c cp tem phiu s gim chi tiu v lng thc t
nhng ngun thu nhp khc ngoi tem phiu lng thc
tng ng vi phn tng ln nh c tem phiu lng thc.
Do vy mt la tr gi ca tem phiu lng thc, ngay c
khi c dng chi mua lng thc s tng khon chi
tiu v lng thc ln mt lng ng bng nh trong
trng hp tr cp mt la tin mt.
Quan im no l ng? C nhng bng chng r rng
v chng trnh h tr tem phiu lng thc. l trng
hp v chng trnh h tr tem phiu lng thc ca
Puect Ric nm 1982, thc t ch ra rng chng trnh
ny tc ng rt t, thm ch khng h c tc ng g n
T nh bt phn nh ch
tr thnh vn tranh
lun khi nhng nh ti
tr v ch nh ph nhn
vin tr theo ui nhng
mc tiu khc nhau
Hnh 3.2. Bt phn nh hon ton
Trng hc
ng s
Ngun: Minh ho mang tnh gi thuyt.
ANH GIA VIN TR
71
chi tiu cho lng thc (Moffitt 1989). Hoa K qua hai
chng trnh tr cp bng hin vt th nghim theo phng
php chn mu ngu nhin ngi ta khng thy chng c
tc ng g n chi tiu cho lng thc Alabama v ch
c tc ng nh San Diego (Franker v cc tc gi khc
1995). i vi s h tr bng tem phiu lng thc, nhng
bng chng thc t cho thy r mt iu rng quan
im n gin l sai, cn quan im tnh bt phn nh
l (gn nh hon ton) ng. Nhng iu ny lin quan g
ti vin tr nc ngoi?
Mt th n gin s gip chng ta m t ba c im
ca tnh bt phn nh ca vin tr nc ngoi (hnh 3.2).
Gi s chnh ph ch chi tiu cho hai hng ho, l ng
s v trng hc v ngn sch phn b khon chi tiu R cho
ng s v S cho trng hc (im X trn ng gii hn
ngn sch). By gi gi s rng c mt nh ti tr sn sng
vin tr mt khon tin A cho vic u t vo ng s. Nu
ngun vin tr ny hon ton c phn nh, ton b s
tin s c chi cho ng s. V vy chnh ph s chi
R+A cho ng s v mt lng tin khng i (S) cho
trng hc. Nhng nu s tin ny hon ton bt phn nh,
ngn sch mi ca chnh ph chnh bng ngn sch trc
khi c vin tr cng vi A (min l chnh ph tho mn iu
kin s chi nhiu hn A cho ng s). Trong v d ny
chnh ph s chi R cho ng s (nhiu hn mc trc khi
c vin tr R v nhiu hn A nhng t hn R+A) v S cho
trng hc. iu ny gii thch ba vn sau y.
Th nht, ton b s tin vin tr (A), c chi cho
ng s nu xt n thun v mt hnh chnh, nhng mc
nh hng ca ngun vin tr ny ln tng chi tiu cho
ng s c th c gi tr t khng n tng s tin A.
Th hai, tnh bt phn nh hon ton khng c ngha
l vin tr khng h c chi tiu cho ng s, m tc
ng ca vic h tr s tin A cho ng s i vi tng
chi tiu cho ng s hon ton khng khc g so vi trong
trng hp nh ti tr dng s tin A ny h tr chung
cho ngn sch. ngha thc tin ca tnh bt phn nh ph
thuc vo vic nh ti tr v chnh ph nhn vin tr c
cng mc tiu hay khng. Nu nh ti tr ch n gin
mong mun h tr thm vn cho chnh ph, nhng s
thun li hn v mt hnh chnh nu h cp vn cho ng
s, khi tnh bt phn nh khng quan trng. Nu ngc
li nh ti tr c nhng mc tiu khc v h thc s mun
chnh ph nhn vin tr s chi khon vin tr A cho ng
Hnh 3.3. Bt phn nh mt phn
Trng hc
ng s
Ngun: Ngun: Minh ho mang tnh
gi thuyt.
ANH GIA VIN TR
72
s, lc ny tnh bt phn nh s l mt vn .
Th ba, tnh bt phn nh i hi s tin vin tr dnh
cho ng s phi nh hn s tin m chnh ph chi cho
ng s t chnh nhng ngun thu ca chnh ph trong
trng hp khng c vin tr. Gi s rng chnh ph chn
mc chi tiu ti im X cho ng s v trng hc v sau
nhn c khon vin tr A (hnh 3.3). Chi tiu thc t
s tng ti im Y, nhng chnh ph mong mun chn
im Z. V vy tnh bt phn nh t c kh nng tr thnh
vn nu s vin tr ln hn nhiu so vi ngn sch
chnh ph (nh nhiu nn kinh t ph thuc vo vin tr
nc ngoi) hay nu vin tr nhm h tr cho mt i
tng c th v ch c mt phn rt nh ngn sch chnh
ph c chi cho i tng (v d, vin tr theo d n
h tr cho mt hot ng chi tiu hon ton mi).
Hu ht vin tr nc ngoi c dnh cho cc d n,
trong nh ti tr h tr vn hoc cho mt d n u t ln
(nh mt cng trnh xy dng ng cao tc) hoc ph bin
hn l cho mt tp hp cc d n u t c lin quan ti nhau
(ng s nng thn, nh th, h thng knh thu li,
cp nc sinh hot cho nhiu lng mc, cc chng trnh xy
dng trng hc). Tuy nhin, ngi ta nhn thy tnh bt
phn nh ca vin tr s l mt vn ngay t u khi cp
cc ngun vin tr quy m ln.
1
L lun v vn ny khng
c g mi, nhng ci mi y l nhng bng chng v tnh
bt phn nh. Gi s nh ti tr cp 1 triu la cho chnh
ph u t vo mt d n c th, chng hn nh gio dc.
Ba cu hi thch hp y l:
Chi tiu ca chnh ph c tng ln 1 triu la hay
khng?
Chi tiu u t ca chnh ph c tng ln 1 triu la
hay khng?
Chi cho gio dc c tng ln 1 triu la hay khng?
Vin tr c lm tng chi tiu ch nh ph hay khng?
Chnh ph c mt s cch x l khc nhau khi h c
nhn vin tr. H c th dng ton b s tin vin tr
tng chi tiu. H c th gim thu tng ng vi s tin
vin tr. Hay h c th gi nguyn mc chi tiu v thu
hin ti v s dng vin tr b p thm ht ngn sch
(tng ng vi vic ct gim thu trong tng lai) - hay
bt k s kt hp no gia ba cch gii quyt .
c rt nhiu nghin cu v tc ng ca cc ngun
R rng hiu ng
"by rui" ca cc
khon vay u i
mnh hn so vi
ca cc ngun vin
tr khng hon li.
ANH GIA VIN TR
73
chuyn giao ngn sch gia cc cp chnh quyn trong cng
mt quc gia - v d, gia chnh quyn trung ng v cc c
quan chnh quyn cp tnh (hay cp tiu bang). Bng chng
cho thy rng, tin chuyn t cc c quan chnh quyn cp
cao xung cc c quan chnh quyn i phng c xu hng
dnh cho tng chi tiu chnh ph nhiu hn v t c dng
ti tr cho vic ct gim thu so vi mc m quan im
tnh bt phn nh hon ton ch ra. Xu hng ngun thu
ngoi thu ch lm tng chi tiu ca chnh ph m khng
c dng h tr vic ct gim thu c gi l hiu ng
by rui.
ANH GIA VIN TR
74
Hnh 3.4. Mt la vin tr v chi tiu ch nh ph
c lng t cc mu iu tra nhiu nc
Gii ngn 38
nc
1971-1990
Vay u i
38 nc
1971-1990
Vay song phng
46 nc
1969-1980
Ngun: Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu 1998; Cashel-Cordo v Craig 1990.
Trong cc mu iu
tra ln, mt la
vin tr lm tng chi
tiu ch nh ph ln
cha n mt la...
c lng t cc mu nh v mt s nc c th
14 nc
gii ngn ODA
14 nc
vay u i
Xri Lanca CH minica Innsia
Ngun: Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu 1998; Pack v Pack 1990, 1993, 1996.
...nhng i vi tng
quc gia c th i
khi ngi ta ghi
nhn nhng hiu
ng "by rui" rt
mnh.
C rt nhiu cng trnh nghin cu v hiu ng by
rui ca vin tr nc ngoi. Hai cng trnh da trn cc
mu iu tra quy m ln gm nhiu quc gia ch ra rng 1
la vin tr lm tng chi tiu chnh ph ln t hn 1 la.
Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu (1997) nghin cu vn ny
38 quc gia v thy rng 1 la cho vay u i (v d
nhng khon cho vay ca Hip hi pht trin quc t) lm
tng thm 63 cent trong chi tiu chnh ph (hnh 3.4). Khi
kt hp cc khon cho vay u i vi cc ngun vin tr,
ANH GIA VIN TR
75
tc ng ny ch l 33 cent. V vy, r rng hiu ng by
rui mnh hn i vi cc khon vay u i so vi cc
ngun vin tr. Cashel-Cordo v Craig (1990) khi nghin
cu mt mu iu tra khc gm 46 quc gia thy rng
nhng khon vay song phng khng h c tc ng ln
chi tiu chnh ph.
Nhng nghin cu da trn cc mu iu tra quy m nh
hn v tng quc gia c th cho thy hiu ng by rui
mnh hn. Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu (1997) s dng mu
iu tra nh gm 14 quc gia m h c s liu chi tit v chi
tiu chnh ph chia theo ngnh trong nhiu nm (ph lc 3).
H tm thy c hiu ng by rui tuyt i: 1 la vin tr
lm tng chi tiu chnh ph xp x 1 la (95 cent i vi
cc khon vay song phng v 1,24 la i vi cc khon
vay u i). Trong trng hp ca Innsia, Pack v Pack
(1990) thy rng 1 la vin tr lm tng chi tiu chnh ph
ln 1,50 la (hnh 3.4). V vy, thay v h tr cho vic ct
gim thu do cc ngun vin tr c th thay th cho mt
phn ngun lc huy ng trong nc, vin tr c th lm
tng thu do tc ng lm tng chi tiu chnh ph. Tc
ng tng chi tiu chnh ph ny c th l do vin tr gip
chnh ph khai thc c cc ngun vn khc thng qua
vic nng cao hiu qu cng tc thu thu hay to iu kin
khai thc cc ngun vn thng mi-hay nh c vin tr m
c th r b cc ro cn i vi chi tiu chnh ph.
iu ny ng h quan im cho rng cc ngun vin
tr c tnh bt phn nh ln. Tnh bt phn nh c ngha
l mt chnh ph c th s dng nhng ngun vn b sung
tng chi tiu, h tr cho vic gim thu, hay gim thm
ht ngn sch (thng qua ct gim thu tng lai). Mi x
hi khc nhau s c nhng la chn khc nhau, v vy
chng ta c th tm c nhng v d (nh Innsia)
trong chi tiu chnh ph tng ng thi vi cc ngun
vin tr. Nhng kh m tm thy mi quan h ny ng
lot xut hin trong cc mu iu tra ln gm nhiu quc
gia, iu cho thy rng mc d c hiu ng by rui
mt mc nht nh nhng ni chung l khng ng khi
cho rng 1 la vin tr s tng chi tiu chnh ph ln c 1
la. Mt phn trong s s c dng h tr vic ct
gim thu hay gim thm ht ngn sch.
Kh c th tm c
mi lin h gia vin
tr v chi tiu u
t.
Vin tr c lm tng chi tiu u t hay khng?
Cc nh ti tr khi h tr vn cho cc d n thng
ANH GIA VIN TR
76
khng nhm mc tiu tng chi tiu chnh ph mt cch
chung chung. Thay vo , vin tr thng nhm vo cc
d n nht nh hoc cc khon chi tiu c th, v d nh
u t vo c s h tng hay cung ng cc dch v x hi.
Trong ngn sch nh nc ca nhng nc ang pht trin
c s phn bit gia cc khon chi thng xuyn v chi
tiu u t.
Nhiu nc ang pht trin khng c s liu r rng v
phn b gia chi tiu u t v cc khon chi tiu khc
(nh cho qun l hnh chnh, tr cp, an ninh quc
phng...). V vy rt kh tm ra mi lin h gia vn vin
tr v chi tiu u t trong mt mu iu tra ln gm nhiu
quc gia. Tuy nhin chng ta c th rt ra mt tng
chung thng qua vic xem xt mi quan h gia vin tr
nc ngoi v chi cho tiu dng ca chnh ph.
Trong mu iu tra gm 14 quc gia ca mnh,
Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu thy rng 1 la vin tr nc
ngoi thng lm tng 29 cent u t cng cng (hnh 3.5).
Lu rng, nhng nc ny c hiu ng "by rui" mnh
v vy vin tr hu nh c dnh ht tng chi cho tiu
dng ca chnh ph. Dng nh vin tr h tr cho
chnh ph ni chung ch khng nhm vo chi tiu u t
nh mc ch nh ti tr thng t ra. Trong mu iu tra
ny 29 cent ng bng phn dnh cho u t trong 1 la
chi tiu chnh ph c ly t tt c cc ngun (vin tr v
khng vin tr). V vy 1 la vin tr c cng tc ng
nh 1 la t bt k ngun thu no khc ca chnh ph.
Chng ta c th xem xt tc ng mnh ca vin tr (c
bit vin tr song phng) ln chi cho tiu dng ca chnh
ph trong mu iu tra ln gm nhiu quc gia c s
dng trong chng 1 (hnh 3.6). Mi lin kt mnh gia vic
tng vin tr vi vic tng tiu dng ca chnh ph (ngay c
khi tnh n cc yu t quyt nh khc trong chi tiu chnh
ph) cho thy c s hin din ca c hiu ng "by rui" v
tnh bt phn nh (n cho php vin tr dnh cho u t
c dng h tr cho tiu dng ca chnh ph).
ANH GIA VIN TR
77
Hnh 3.5. Mt la vin tr v chi tiu u t cng cng
Gii ngn ODA
14 nc
Vay u i
14 nc
Innsia Xri Lanca
Ngun: Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu 1998; Pack v Pack 1990,1993,1996.
Mt la vin tr
thng lm tng 29
cent cho u t
cng cng...
Hnh 3.6 Vin tr song phng v chi tiu ca ch nh ph
T trng chi tiu ca ch nh ph t nh theo %GDP
T trng ca vn vin tr song phng trong GDP (%)
Nhng nghin cu thc nghim Innsia v Xri Lanca
cng ch ra rng vin tr tc ng ln chi tiu u t t hn so
vi tng chi tiu chnh ph, v vy khng phi ton b vin
tr c chuyn thnh u t. Mt ln na nhng s khc
bit gia cc nc li rt ln. Xri Lanca mt la vin tr
lm tng thm 52 cent trong chi tiu chnh ph. Trong , 38
cent dnh cho chi tiu u t v 14 cent dnh cho chi cho tiu
dng. Innsia mt la vin tr lm tng 1,58 la trong
chi tiu chnh ph, trong chi tiu u t chim 89 cent.
...phn ln phn cn
li c dnh cho
tiu dng ca ch nh
ph.
ANH GIA VIN TR
78
Bng chng cho thy rng ngay c khi vin tr c
dnh hu ht cho chi tiu chnh ph, hiu ng ca n i
vi tiu dng v u t cng kh xc nh, d l v mt
hnh chnh vin tr c c a vo nhng d n u t c
th hay khng.
Cc ngun vin tr theo d n c h tr vn cho cc ngnh c th no
hay khng?
Cc nh nghin cu cng c gng tm hiu tnh bt phn
nh theo ngnh - ngha l, liu nhng ngun vin tr nc
ngoi cho mt ngnh nht nh (v d, nng nghip hay gio
dc) tng ln c lm tng chi tiu cho ngnh hay khng?
C hai cch tr li cu hi : bng cch so snh mc chi
tiu ca mt nc qua cc nm v so snh mc chi tiu gia
cc nc vi nhau. Cho d theo phng php no i na th
cu tr li ch l mt: mc bt phn nh khng ng
nht. mt s nc v mt s ngnh cc ngun vin tr
hon ton bt phn nh gia cc ngnh, trong khi cc
nc v cc ngnh khc vin tr dng nh rt cng nhc.
Pack v Pack (1990) ch ra rng i vi mi la tng
ln trong vn ti tr cho nng nghip ca Innsia, chi
tiu trong ngnh tng ln 92 cent. Ngc li, mt
nghin cu i vi 14 quc gia s dng cc s liu theo
ngnh li cho thy rng chi tiu cho nng nghip gim 5
cent i vi mi la vin tr cho nng nghip (hnh 3.7).
Hnh 3.7. Mt la vin tr cho nng nghip v chi tiu cho nng nghip.
Cng ho
minica
14 nc
(u t
cng cng)
Innsia Xri Lanca
14 nc
(chi tiu
chnh ph)
Ngun: Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu 1998; Pack v Pack 1990,1993,1996
Mt la vin tr cho
nng nghip lm tng
chi tiu cho nng
nghip ln cha n
mt la.
ANH GIA VIN TR
79
Tc ng rng ca mt la vin tr i vi chi tiu
cho mt ngnh c th khng ch ph thuc vo thnh phn
vin tr nhn c m cn ph thuc vo vic chnh ph
x l cc ngun vin tr nh th no. Chng ta s xem xt
vn ny i vi ngnh gio dc v y t vi kt qu iu
tra s liu theo ngnh ca 14 nc. Tc ng trc tip ln
chi cho gio dc ca mt la vin tr ph thuc vo s
phn b ngun vin tr gia cc ngnh: 8,7 cent trong mt
la vin tr c dnh cho gio dc v y t. Tuy nhin,
khng phi l hon chnh nu cn nhc v tnh bt phn
nh theo ngnh, chng ta cn phi xem xt ti vic liu
vin tr cho gio dc c lm gim phn chi cho gio dc
m chnh ph ln d ton khi khng c vin tr hay
khng v liu cc ngun vin tr cho cc ngnh khc c
khin chnh ph chi nhiu hn cho gio dc hay khng.
Theo cc kt qu iu tra 14 nc, tc ng thc ca mt
la vin tr l lm gim 6,5 cent trong chi tiu cho gio
dc v y t, mc d trong 1 la vin tr trung bnh c 8,7
cent c dnh cho gio dc v y t (hnh 3.8).
Cam kt ca ch nh ph
i vi mt ngnh no
cn quan trng hn
dnh vin tr cho n.
Hnh 3.8. Mt la vin tr cho gio dc, y t v chi tiu cho
gio dc, y t
Cng ho
minica
Innsia Xri Lanca 14 nc
Trc tip: T l vin tr phn b cho y t v gio dc
Tng s: Tc ng tnh sau khi xem xt tnh bt phn nh theo ngnh
Ngun: Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu 1998; Pack v Pack 1990,1993,1996.
Tc ng ny mi nc mt khc. Xri Lanca dnh
5,9 cent trong 1 la vin tr cho gio dc v y t, nhng
tc ng thc c tnh li lm gim 1,9 cent trong chi ngn
sch cho ngnh . Innsia nhn c mt phn tng t
cho gio dc v y t l 7,2 cent, nhng tc ng li l tng
chi tiu ln 18,9 cent; r rng tin cp cho cc ngnh khc
c phn phi li cho gio dc v y t. Vn quan
Mt la vin tr cho
gio dc gn nh
khng lm tng chi tiu
ngn sch cho gio
dc.
ANH GIA VIN TR
80
trng y l cam kt ca chnh ph i vi mt ngnh
no cn quan trng hn dnh vin tr cho n.
Nhng con s thng k ny khng ni ln ht c tt
c vn . C th l nhng thay i trong chi tiu ca
chnh ph m chng ta thy li chnh l nhng g m
cc nh ti tr mong mun. Chng hn, mc tiu ca nh
ti tr c th khng phi l tng tng chi cho gio dc, m
l tng chi cho gio dc tiu hc ng thi gim chi cho
gio dc bc cao. Nhng c c s dch chuyn trong
vic phn b chi tiu i hi nh ti tr v chnh ph phi
thng nht quan im vi nhau da trn cc phn tch v
tho lun.
C ch ngn sch ca t nh bt phn nh
Mc bt phn nh ph thuc vo c cu ngn sch
ca nc nhn vin tr, kh nng chnh ph c th qun l
cc ngun ti chnh ca mnh v mc tham gia ca nh
ti tr.
V d n , trong h thng ti chnh lin bang rt
phc tp v phn b vn ngn sch gia chnh quyn trung
ng v cc tiu bang, h thng ngn sch c lp ra sao
cho nhng ngun h tr vn thng qua chnh quyn trung
ng dnh cho cc d n mt s bang nht nh khng nh
hng ti cc d n c chn v cng khng nh hng ti
tng vn ngn sch cp cho cc bang . iu ny r rng
to ra tnh bt phn nh. Theo h thng ngn sch ca n
, ngi ta xc nh cc d n c chn c nm trong k
hoch u t cng cng ca chnh ph hay khng v tm
ngun ti tr (hoc t ngn sch nh nc hoc t ngun
nc ngoi - ND) cho nhng d n . Nhng bng chng
thu c t mt cuc iu tra thc nghim cho thy rng
vin tr cho chnh quyn trung ng n l hon ton bt
phn nh, gia cc khon chi tiu u t v cc khon chi
cho cc mc ch khc v gia cc khon chi tiu phn theo
ngnh (Jha v Swaroop 1997). Nhng nc khc, chng hn
nh Mhic, p dng cc c ch to ra tnh bt phn nh
trong h thng ngn sch ca h: mc ch ca h thng
ngn sch nhm bo m vic phn b vn ngn sch khng
b nh hng bi cc ngun vn ti tr.
H thng ngn sch ca n cng xc nh lng
vn h tr u t chnh quyn trung ng cp cho tng
bang. Trc y, nu cc bang nhn c cc ngun vn
Thc chi khc rt nhiu
so vi d ton
ANH GIA VIN TR
81
ti tr t pha cc nh ti tr nhiu hn so vi d kin th
phn vn ngn sch cp cho u t t pha chnh quyn
trung ng s gim xung mt lng tng ng (Jha v
Swaroop 1997).
Mt hn ch ca vin tr chu Phi l thiu s kim
sot ngn sch mt cch cht ch ca c chnh ph v x
hi i vi u t ca chnh ph. Mt nghin cu Gana,
Malauy v Ugana cho thy kh nng kim sot qu yu
km n ni khng th thc hin c bt k mc tiu no
trong s ba mc tiu chnh ca h thng ngn sch: p
dng k cng ngn sch, nh ra cc mc tiu u tin c
tnh cht chin lc v tng cng hiu qu k thut
(Campos v Pradhan 1996). C mt vn ln i vi
nhng nc ny l vic thc hin ngn sch thng tu
tin, thc chi khc rt nhiu so vi d ton v khng c
mi lin h gia chi tiu thng xuyn v chi tiu u t.
Ngoi ra, vin tr c bit cho cc d n li chim mt
phn ln ca chi tiu u t v tng chi tiu. V d, cc
ngun vin tr cho d n chim 71% chi tiu u t
Gana v 87% Ugana (bng 3.1).
Bng 3.1. Vin tr trong tng chi tiu u t hai nc chu
Phi (%)
Gana Ugana
Vin tr cho d n/chi u t 71 87
Vin tr cho d n/tng chi tiu 27 43
Tng vin tr/tng chi tiu 32 67
Ngun: Campos v Pradhan 1996
H thng lp k hoch, kim sot v qun l ngn sch
yu km cng vi nhng ngun vin tr ln thng dn ti
vic Chng trnh u t cng cng c quyt nh bi
cc mc tiu u tin do nh ti tr t ra, do lm hi ti
qu trnh xc nh mc tiu u tin ca cc quc gia
(Campos v Pradhan 1996, tr. 29). Mt nghin cu gn y
do Hi ng pht trin hi ngoi cng vi mt s nh
nghin cu M (van de Wale v Johnston 1996) thc hin
ch ra rng mt trong nhng vn quan trng ca cc
ngun vin tr chu Phi l thiu s kim sot ca chnh
ph i vi vic chn la cc d n v i vi qu trnh
phn b ngn sch. Trong nghin cu i vi 70 nc cc
tc gi thy rng cc nh ti tr thng quyt nh vic
chn la cc d n v c rt t d n do nc nhn vin tr
chn. V d, Xngan ch c 170 trong s 316 d n
trong k hoch u t ca chnh ph c nh gi theo
ANH GIA VIN TR
82
cc th tc ca quc gia nhn vin tr. S kim sot ca
nh ti tr thng c ngha rng vin tr s km bt phn
nh hn, nhng iu li t ra nhng vn khc -
chng hn nh thiu s ng h cng nh s lm ch ca
chnh ph i vi cc chi tiu thng xuyn cho d n.
nh gi d n khi vin tr bt phn nh
Nhng im khc nhau v tnh bt phn nh gia cc
quc gia cho thy chc chn rng nhng g m chng ta nhn
thy khng phi l nhng g chng ta thu c. Hn na,
cng kh c th bit mc bt phn nh trc hay sau khi
nh ti tr cp vn v do kh xc nh c chnh xc
nhng g c ti tr. Nhng nu vin tr bt phn nh
th vic nh gi cc d n c ti tr vn li khng tr nn
quan trng v tc ng ca cc d n ny khng ging tc
ng khi nh ti tr vin tr thng cho d n.
Bng 3.2 nh gi tc ng ca d n khi cc ngun vin tr l bt phn nh
Tc ng danh
ngha ca d n
c vin tr
Tc ng thc t ca
vin tr
Cc d n
thc hin
D n
Li
nhun
D n Li nhun
Trng hp c s
Nh ti tr h tr vn cho A, d n c li sut
cao nht, vn di ra c ti tr cho F, d n
ngp ngh (ng hng u trong s cc d
n cha c xt)
Nh ti tr h tr vn cho d n ngp ngh
do chnh ph chn
cao nht, vn di ra c ti tr cho K, d n
c li sut rt thp
cao nht, vn di ra c ti tr cho chi cho
tiu dng hay h tr cho vic ct gim thu
ABCDE
ABCDE, F
ABCDE, F
ABCDE, K
ABCDE
A
F
A
A
100%
40%
100%
100%
F
F
K
Khng
40%
40%
0%
Khng xc
nh, c th
ln hoc
nh
Lu : Da vo v d hon ton mang tnh gi thuyt trong c mt tp hp cc d n c th thc hin
c (chi ph cho mi d n l 10 triu la) vi cc mc li sut khc nhau - v nu khng c vin tr,
chnh ph s chn thc hin nm d n.
Ngun: Minh ho mang tnh gi thuyt.
ANH GIA VIN TR
83
Ly mt v d c tnh gi thuyt: gi s c 11 d n c
lp, chi ph cho mi d n l 10 triu la. Gi s rng li
sut kinh t ca cc d n gim t 100% (i vi d n A),
ti 90% (i vi d n B) v tip tc xung 0% (i vi d n
K). Cui cng, gi s nc nhn vin tr s u t 50 triu
la t nhng ngun vn trong nc v nh ti tr cp tng
s 10 triu la, ti tr cho 6 d n. C mt s cc kh
nng sau y (bng 3.2).
Trc ht, chnh ph ng cho nh ti tr cp vn
cho d n c li sut cao nht (A). Do li sut r rng l
100%: ngha l, khi nh ti tr nh gi li ch t c h
s thy rng vin tr ca h l mt thnh cng ln. Tuy
nhin, vn thc s trong vic nh gi tc ng ca vin
tr li l cch gii quyt ca chnh ph i vi s vn l ra
n s u t cho d n nu khng c vin tr. Chnh ph c
th u t cho mt d n ngp ngh l d n hng u
trong s nhng d n cha c xt v s l d n F
(vi li sut bng 40%), do chnh ph cam kt thc hin
cc d n B, C, D v E. Hoc chnh ph c th chn thc
hin d n K v cc li ch chnh tr ch khng phi kinh t
v ch li d n mang li cho nn kinh t bng khng.
Chnh ph cng c th chn cch phn b li cc khon chi
tiu u t chuyn bt sang chi tiu thng xuyn. Li ch
ca nhng khon b sung cho chi tiu thng xuyn b
sung ny nh th no, cao hay thp? Thng thng cc
khon chi cho tiu dng, v d chi cho duy tu v bo
dng, khng c cc nh ti tr h tr v vn nhng
chng em li nhng li ch to ln v nh nhng khon chi
tiu ny m cc khon u t hin ti t c hiu qu
cao. Chnh v vy, vic chuyn vn t u t sang chi
thng xuyn c th mang li li ch ln, 200% chng hn.
Tuy nhin, chi tiu thng xuyn c th l nhng khon
vung vi, n tiu xa x ca nhng ngi c quyn lc v v
vy khng em li li ch kinh t. Hay ngun vin tr c
th h tr cho vic ct gim thu, v d n cng c th
mang li li ch ln nu n gim cc khon thu c tc
ng sai lch.
Vin tr qua con ng d n em li mt s li th cho
nh ti tr. l nhng li th v mt qun l do c th t
chc cng vic trong nhng n v c lp v c kh nng
qun l. Cc d n u t t ra rt ph hp vi quan im cho
rng tng u t chnh l yu t quyt nh ti s pht trin.
Thng qua vic vin tr cho nhng lnh vc c th (k hoch
ho gia nh, gio dc ...), nhng d n ny s thu ht s
quan tm i vi lin minh n mc ch ca cc nc vin
tr.
Mc d cch thc vin
tr theo d n em li
mt s li th cho nh
ti tr, nhng iu
khng bo m rng
vin tr s c s
dng tt.
ANH GIA VIN TR
84
Mc d cch thc vin tr theo d n em li mt s
li th cho nh ti tr, nhng iu khng bo m rng
vin tr s c s dng tt. iu cng khng to thun
li cho vic nh gi hiu qu ca cc ngun vin tr. Nu
chng hn vin tr c dnh cho mt d n xy dng
ng s c li sut l 20%, con s ny chng ni ln iu
g v hiu qu ca vin tr. Liu tnh bt phn nh c ch
ra rng cch tip cn d n t ra khng ph hp v khng
nn c s dng nh mt cch thc t chc v chuyn
giao cc ngun vin tr hay khng? Hon ton khng phi
nh vy. Phng thc vin tr theo d n c th c s
dng thu c gi tr gia tng. Trong rt nhiu trng
hp, gi tr gia tng ca d n khng ch t bn thn khon
u t. Cc nh ti tr thng khng c gng tc ng
ti vic la chn d n hay trc tip thay i c cu chi
tiu cho cc ngnh nhng h s dng cc d n nh l
phng tin chuyn giao cng ngh hoc nng cao
hiu qu v mt th ch hay ci cch cc chnh sch ngnh.
Trong v d v ng s, s tham gia ca nh ti tr c
th lm tng hiu qu hot ng ca nhng c quan chc
nng c lin quan - hay thay i cc chnh sch v ng s
theo chiu hng tt hn. Cc d n l ni cha ng tin
ca v tng. Do tin khng nht thit phi gn vi ngnh
la chn, vic xy dng v nh gi d n nn tp trung
vo nhng kin ng gp thay i cc th ch v chnh
sch i vi ngnh c vin tr (xem chng 4).
Chi tiu cng cng - Cht lng ch khng phi s lng
Gi thit an ton nht cho nhng nh ti tr l h hu
nh ang ti tr cho ci m chnh ph nhn vin tr mun.
Cc nh ti tr h tr ti chnh chung cho chnh ph nn h
cn phi xem xt tt c cc khon chi tiu chnh ph, c v
kha cnh phn b ln hiu qu, khi quyt nh cp bao
nhiu vin tr v phng php vin tr. V vy, mi nh ti
tr s phi quyt nh ti tr nh th no gip cho
chng trnh chi tiu chnh ph tr nn c hiu qu hn?
Gi thit an ton nht
cho nhng nh ti tr l
h hu nh ang ti tr
cho ci m ch nh ph
nhn vin tr mun.
Cng bng v hiu qu
Chnh ph nn tham gia vo nhng vic m s can
thip ca chnh ph l hon ton hp l. Khong hai mi
nm trc y, cc nh ti tr sn sng h tr vn cho hu
ANH GIA VIN TR
85
ht cc cng vic m chnh ph mun tham gia vo - nh
nh my dt, cng ty giy, nh my luyn kim v tt c cc
ngnh sn xut. V s cc cng ty nh nc c thnh lp
do c qu nhiu cc ngun vin tr. Tuy nhin c mt
s thay i t duy ln v gi tr ca cc khon u t ca
chnh ph trong cc ngnh sn xut giy v dt vi. Ngy
nay t ngi phn i rng khu vc t nhn c th thc
hin nhng hot ng d dng vi hiu qu cao hn.
Ni chung, s hp l trong vic can thip ca chnh ph
chnh l tng cng s cng bng v hiu qu. Nhng
t c nhng mc tiu ny khng phi l d.
Cng bng. Nhiu khon chi tiu chnh ph - ngay c
nhng khon chi c xc nh t cch y rt lu do chng
c kh nng nng cao tnh cng bng - thng khng thc
hin tt mc tiu gim ngho. V d, mt nh gi Braxin
cho thy chi cho bo him x hi nm 1980 ch gip cho
nhng cng chc nh nc kh gi, do tin tr cp m 20%
s cng chc giu c nht nhn c gp 12 ln so vi ca
20% nhng ngi ngho nht. i vi gio dc cng vy,
vic thc hin cng bng khc xa nhau gia gio dc tiu
hc v gio dc bc cao. Mt nghin cu Innsia cho
thy rng 20% nhng h gia nh giu nht ch nhn c
60% tr cp bnh qun t ngun chi tiu chnh ph cho gio
dc tiu hc ngang bng 20% nhng h ngho nht. Tuy
nhin, con ci ca nhng gia nh kh gi c kh nng hc
ln cao hn, do trnh hc vn cng cao th cng nhiu
tr cp chnh ph ri vo ti nhng h gia nh kh gi. Tnh
ti nm cui ca bc hc ph thng, li ch m 20% nhng
h giu nht nhn c gp 17 ln so vi ca nhng h
ngho nht (van de Walle 1995).
Hiu qu. nh gi nhng hot ng ca chnh ph
nng cao hiu qu cng khng phi d. Chng ta phi tnh
n s hin din ca cc khim khuyt ca th trng. V
chng ta cng phi tnh n mc nh hng ca chng,
c bit khi so snh vi khim khuyt ca chnh ph c
th c khi thc hin mt phng thuc cu cha cc khim
khuyt ca th trng. Quan nim cho rng cc khim
khuyt ca th trng c tc ng rng khp v ton b, do
i hi phi c s can thip ca chnh ph, c thay
th bi mt quan nim tinh t hn - cho rng c khim
khuyt ca th trng v ca chnh ph u c tc ng ln,
nhng khng ton b. V vy, mc d theo nguyn tc thng
thng, nhng cn c s nh gi gia cc quc gia xc
nh ln ca cc khim khuyt ca th trng v b su
nng lc ca chnh ph (Ngn hng Th gii 1997b).
Cht lng ca chi tiu
ch nh ph thng quan
trng hn s lng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
86
Tuy nhin, nguyn tc hiu qu thng a ra nhng
khuyn ngh r rng. V d, cc chnh ph, i khi c
vin tr v vn, dnh cc ngun vn ln u t cho cc
ngnh cng nghip v thng mi l nhng ngnh m bn
thn th trng c th hot ng rt tt v do xt v mt
hiu qu th s can thip ca chnh ph l khng cn thit.
Ngoi ra, chnh ph thng tr cp trn din rng trong
khng hp l c v mt cng bng ln hiu qu - v d nh
cc khon tr cp quy m ln cho cc sn phm nng
nghip hay cht t m ch yu c s dng bi nhng
ngi giu c, iu v hnh chung t ra mt loi thu
i vi nhng ngi lm nng nghip ngho hn.
Cht lng v s lng
Cht lng ca chi tiu chnh ph thng quan trng
hn s lng. Mc d c nhng bng chng v nhng loi
hng ho cng cng no l cn thit cho s tng trng
kinh t v gim ngho (chng hn nh c s h tng v
gio dc c bn), nhng li c rt t hoc thm ch khng
c bng chng chng minh cho vic tng chi tiu chnh
ph s c tc ng ln nhng mc tiu ny. Do tc ng
ca vin tr tng nc l khc nhau nn tc ng ca
vic tng chi tiu chnh ph i vi vic tng sn lng
cng khc nhau gia cc nc. Nhng bng chng khi so
snh gia cc nc v cc khu vc, cng nh trong cc
trng hp c th, ch ra rng nhng yu t u vo nh
tin vn thng khng phi l vn quan trng nht i
vi sn lng ca khu vc nh nc.
L thuyt v tng trng thc nghim cho thy chi cho
tiu dng ca chnh ph khng c tc ng tch cc i vi
tng trng kinh t. Mt s nghin cu tm thy tc ng
tiu cc, mt s khc khng tm thy tc ng no. Nhng
kt qu tm c v vic phn ln cc ngun vin tr h tr
cho chi tiu dng ca chnh ph, m khon chi li
khng c nh hng tch cc ti tng trng, mt ln na
gip chng ta gii thch v sao cc ngun vin tr khng
thc y tng trng kinh t nhiu nc ang pht trin.
Mt nghin cu s dng s liu v tng trng kinh t v
phn b ngn sch chnh ph ca 43 nc ang pht trin
cho thy rng khng c mi lin h gia tng trng kinh t
v chi tiu u t pht trin ca chnh ph (Devarajan,
Swaroop v Zou 1996). Cc tc gi thy rng nu tng phn
Lng chi tiu ca
ch nh ph cho y t ch
c tc ng nh ti vic
gim t l t vong.
ANH GIA VIN TR
87
chi tiu cho u t pht trin ca chnh ph (so vi chi cho
tiu dng thng xuyn) ln 1% th s lm gim tng trng
kinh t i 0,5% hng nm. Mt nghin cu khc, s dng
mt tp hp s liu c bit v u t ca chnh ph, sau khi
kim tra mt tp hp chun cc yu t quyt nh tng
trng, ch ra rng phn GDP dnh cho u t ca chnh
ph khng h lin quan n tng trng kinh t (Easterly v
Rebelo 1993). Vy l, trong khi mt mc tiu ca vin tr l
tng chi tiu u t ca chnh ph, bn thn vn u t li
khng lin quan n tng trng kinh t. Xem xt tc ng
ca lng vn u t ca chnh ph gia cc nc cho thy
s khc nhau v hiu qu u t ca chnh ph l mt yu t
quan trng gii thch s tng trng kinh t nh vo vn
u t ca chnh ph (Pritchett 1996).
Cc s liu cng ch ra rng khng c mi lin h gia
cc khon chi tiu theo ngnh v tng trng kinh t.
Devarajan, Swaroop v Zou khng tm thy mi lin h
gia tng trng v chi tiu chnh ph cho gio dc v y t.
Ngoi ra h cn thy rng chi ph bnh qun u ngi cho
gio dc v y t t l nghch vi tng trng. Easterly v
Rebelo cng thy phn GDP dnh cho u t ca chnh
ph, cho gio dc v y t khng nh hng ti tng trng
kinh t. Trong vic so snh gia cc quc gia, c rt t bng
chng cho thy khi tng chi tiu u t ca chnh ph, hay
phn b li ngn sch gia cc ngnh, s t ng to ra
mc tng trng kinh t cao hn.
Kt qu ny ph hp vi nhng nh gi v hiu qu
ca chi tiu chnh ph i vi ba ngnh chnh: y t, gio
dc v c s h tng. Vic so snh s liu gia cc quc
gia cho thy rng chi tiu ca chnh ph c tc ng mt
mc no (nh) i vi y t. Trong danh sch cc
quc gia c sp xp da vo khong chnh lch gia ch
s t vong thc t tr em v mc d tnh da vo nhng
yu t quyt nh ti sc kho v x hi v kinh t, 10
quc gia m ngi dn c sc kho tt nht thng chi
1,3% GDP cho y t - v ch s t vong tr em thp hn
40% mc d tnh (hnh 3.9). i vi 10 quc gia m ngi
dn c sc kho km nht, ch s t vong tr em cao hn
khong 40% so vi d tnh, nhng trn thc t nhng nc
ny li dnh phn nhiu GDP hn cho cc khon chi ca
chnh ph cho y t so vi 10 nc tt nht (Filmer v
Pritchett, 1997). Khi gii thch php o con s t vong (tr
s sinh, tr em) hay tui th, phn tch hi quy tm thy
mi lin h m nht hay thm ch khng c lin h gia
chi tiu chnh ph v tnh trng sc kho (Musgrove 1996).
Hnh 3.9 Chi tiu ca ch nh
ph cho y t (%GDP) v Tnh
trng Sc kho
Phn trm
Mi
nc
tt nht
Mi
nc
km nht
Lu : S t trong ngoc l s
d ca hi quy hm log c s t
nhin ca bin s t l t vong
tr em di 5 tui i vi GDP
bnh qun u ngi v cc yu
t kinh t x hi quyt nh ti t
l t vong.
Ngun: Filmer v Prichett 1997.
ANH GIA VIN TR
88
Tng t, i vi gio dc c rt t bng chng cho rng
tng chi tiu ng ngha vi vic tng cht lng gio dc.
S dng nhng nh gi v cht lng gio dc i vi mn
ton v khoa hc da trn kt qu ca nhng cuc thi tng
ng cc nc, mt nghin cu ch ra rng c tng chi
tiu v chi thng xuyn cho gio dc c o theo t l
phn trm trong GDP u t l nghch vi kt qu thi
(Hanushek v Kim 1995). Mc d hu ht mi ngi u
ng rng kh nng nng cao k nng nhanh chng chnh
l yu t quyt nh cho s thnh cng ca nhng nn kinh
t ng vi tc tng trng kinh t cao trong giai on
trc nm 1997, nhng nhng quc gia ny li khng ly g
lm ni bt v lng vn dnh cho gio dc trong sut giai
on ct cnh v sau (chi tiu ca chnh ph cho gio dc
chim khong 3% trong GDP Hn Quc) hay v nhng
u vo vt cht cho gio dc nh t l hc sinh/gio vin,
t l vo nm 1985 l 38 Hn Quc, 31 Philippin v
32 Xri Lanca (Tan v Mingat 1992).
i vi c s h tng, s liu cng ch ra nhng im
khc bit tng t v chi ph v kt qu gia cc nc vi
nhau (Ngn hng Th gii 1994). Mc d cc cng trnh c
s h tng rt quan trng i vi tng trng kinh t,
nhng kh c th ch ra rng chi tiu cho c s h tng (v
c tng lng c s h tng) l quan trng (Hulten 1996).
i vi nhng ngi c kinh nghim v cc nc ang
pht trin, s khng c g lm h ngc nhin khi vic so
snh cc s liu ch ra mi lin h m nht gia chi u
t ca chnh ph v kt qu u t. Tuy nhin, iu ny
khng c ngha rng chi tiu ca chnh ph khng th nh
hng ti kt qu u t. Tc ng thc t ca chi tiu
chnh ph trong hu ht cc lnh vc m chnh ph tham
gia u t - t c s h tng n gio dc - nh hn nhiu
so vi tc ng tim nng.
Khi ng thi t ra cc cu hi ci g v kt qu ra
sao v khi chnh ph lm tt nhng vic cn lm, kt qu
t c c th lm ngi ta kinh ngc. Mt v d in
hnh l nhng thnh cng v gio dc ng , ni m
cc nc, v d nh Hn Quc, t ch i b phn dn
chng cn m ch vn ti t c cht lng gio
dc ngang hng (v cao hn) cht lng gio dc nhng
nc giu c hn nhiu. Chng ta cng c th tm thy
nhng v d tng t i vi y t. Nhng n lc trong vic
bo v sc kho cng ng nhm chng li nhng bnh
dch ly lan, bnh dch hch v nhng bnh ly qua nc
Tc ng thc t ca
chi tiu ch nh ph
trong hu ht cc lnh
vc m ch nh ph
tham gia u t - t c
s h tng n gio dc
- nh hn nhiu so vi
tc ng tim nng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
89
to nn mt cuc cch mng v tnh trng sc kho.
Xri Lanca v bang Kerala ca n tui th ca ngi
dn cao hn rt nhiu so vi mc d on da vo thu nhp
v trnh gio dc ca h. Khi bang Ceara ca Braxin
tng cng v h tr cho nhng cng chc nh nc lm
vic trong ngnh y t, con s t vong tr s sinh gim
mnh ch trong mt vi nm.
Khi vn t ra l chnh ph nn lm g v c th
chnh ph nn chi bao nhiu, th cc ngun vin tr chnh
l ngun h tr cho chi tiu chnh ph. V vy, cc ngun
vin tr hon ton c lp vi mc hiu qu ca chi tiu
chnh ph trong vic thc hin mc tiu gim ngho. Trong
nhiu trng hp, ngay c khi vin tr gip tng u t
trong mt lnh vc cn thit, iu cng khng h to ra
mc tng trng cao hn. V vy vn khng ch n
gin l chnh ph nn lm g, m cn nn thc hin nh th
no v hiu qu ra sao.
Cc nh ti tr phi c
ch nh kin v s phn
b v t nh hiu qu
ca cc khon chi tiu
ch nh ph ca mt
quc gia.
Cc nh ti tr nn lm g?
Tnh bt phn nh v nhng im khc bit v cht
lng ca chi tiu chnh ph c ngha nh th no i vi
cng vic ca cc nh ti tr? Nhng vn thu ht nhiu
tranh lun trong chnh sch vin tr tp trung vo vn cc
nh ti tr nn h tr v vn cho ci g: gio dc cho hc
sinh n hay xy dng ng giao thng nng thn, pht
trin nng nghip hay cc c s y t phc v k hoch ho
gia nh, nh my in hay cc chng trnh tim chng.
Nu nh tin l bt phn nh gia cc ngnh (v thng l
nh vy), quan im theo ngha hp v tng cng chi tiu
cho rng vic cc nh ti tr h tr vn cho lnh vc no li
khng thnh vn . Tuy nhin, phn ln nhng nh nghin
cu v s pht trin u bit r v tnh bt phn nh v h
theo quan im theo ngha rng hn v tc ng ca cc
ngun vin tr: nhiu vn cn lu tm hn l ch n gin
tng cng vn. iu ny t ra cu hi l cc nh ti tr
nn phn b cc ngun vn nh th no h tr cho tng
quc gia mt cch tt nht. Trong phm vi chnh sch tm
quc gia, chng ta s chuyn sang hai ch v la chn
mc v cch thc h tr: thi gian v s la chn v vai
tr ca ng tin v cc tng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
90
Hnh thnh quan im...
theo ui mt chin lc pht trin hiu qu, cc
nh ti tr phi c chnh kin v s phn b v tnh hiu
qu ca cc khon chi tiu chnh ph ca mi mt quc
gia. Cc nh ti tr ch c th gip khi h bit quc gia
ang cn nhng g. Trong thp k trc nhng phn tch
v chi tiu chnh ph tr thnh mt cng c hu hiu trong
vic nh gi gi tr ca u t chnh ph vo nhng lnh
vc khc nhau. Cc bo co nhn xt v chi tiu chnh ph
tp trung vo mc ngn sch nh nc p ng ba ch
tiu ca qun l ngn sch l: k lut ngn sch, u tin
gia cc ngnh v hiu qu.
Cc nh ti tr cn phi nhn thc c mc hiu
qu trong chi tiu chnh ph theo tng ch tiu trn. Vic r
sot chi tiu loi b rt nhiu cc khon u t khng v
li ch kinh t. Mt ng gp tch cc ca vic phn tch
chi tiu chnh ph l r sot (v thng ct gim) cc
khon u t ln theo k hoch m thng sau ko theo
vic phn b ngn sch.
Phn tch chi tiu chnh ph cng cnh bo v
nhng vn ny sinh gia cc ngnh - gia cc b phn
trong tng ngnh v gia cc c quan chc nng. Khi cc
nc tin hnh iu chnh ti chnh, c hai xu hng ph
bin l ct b mt s khon mc ngn sch v ct gim chi
tiu cho tt c cc khon, tuy nhin phng php ct gim
tin lng t ra khng hiu qu. Vic phn tch cng tp
trung vo nhng u tin gia cc b phn trong tng
ngnh- chng hn nh i vi vic ct gim chi ngn sch
cho gio dc th nn ct gim phn chi cho gio dc bc
cao cn nn gi nguyn phn chi cho gio dc tiu hc.
Nhng phn tch chi tiu chnh ph u tin mi ch dng
li mc phn tch n gin. Nhng phn tch thng
khng s dng h thng cc khon chi tiu chnh ph v hng
dn chung v cc b phn thch hp trong chi tiu chnh ph
gia cc khu vc (Swaroop 1997). Kim im 113 bo co ca
Ngn hng Th gii v chi tiu chnh ph cho thy rt t bo
co xem xt ti vai tr ca nh nc v ranh gii gia nh
nc v khu vc t nhn (McCarthy 1995). Ngoi ra, rt t bo
co xem xt mt ci g vt ra khi phm vi cc khon chi
tiu v lin h chng vi nhng kt qu c th.
Mt bi hc kinh
nghim au n l v
tm quan trng ca vn
lm ch ca ch nh
ph v cng ng i
vi cc d n.
ANH GIA VIN TR
91
... v s dng quan im
Sau khi nh ti tr c quan im v vic phn b v
tnh hiu qu ca chi tiu chnh ph, h nn lm g tip sau
? Mt phn ng chung ca nh ti tr i vi tnh bt
phn nh ca tin t l c gng trnh n bng cch t ra
nhng iu kin b sung cho vic vin tr ra ngoi phm vi
mt d n nhm bo m ngun vn u t tng ln cho
ngnh. y l mt tng rt ti.
Mt cch bo m cc ngun vn u t tng ln
l vic cc nh ti tr ch h tr vn cho nhng khon mc
hay d n m chnh ph khng u t. Tuy nhin, chng ta
cng d nhn thy lp lun ny cn nhiu thiu st. N c
ngha l cc nh ti tr ch h tr vn cho nhng g m quc
gia v chnh ph khng mun lm. V chnh ph t hoc
khng cam kt thc hin hay duy tr cc d n sau khi cc
nh ti tr kt thc cng vic ca h. Mt s chnh ph (ch
hoc v tnh) cho php cc nh ti tr t lm nhng g
m h cm thy nn lm. Tin vn cp cho nhng d n nh
vy r rng tng ln, nhng chc chn chnh nhng d n
ny li tr nn v dng, tr mt vi trng hp hn hu d
n ko theo cc iu kin vi chnh ph. S tt hn nhiu
nu c nc nhn vin tr v nh ti tr c nhng cam kt
cht ch bo m s tn ti ca cc d n. Nhng iu
ny c th t c khi ng tin bt phn nh.
C mt bi hc kinh nghim au n v tm quan
trng ca vn lm ch ca chnh ph v cng ng i
vi cc d n. Vic c gng tng ngun ti tr li hm
rng cc nh ti tr v chnh ph c th mu thun vi
nhau v vic phn b cc khon chi tiu ca chnh ph
nhng cc nh ti tr c th mnh bo m rng cc
chnh ph phi chp nhn tun theo li khuyn ca cc nh
ti tr i vi vic phn b cc khon chi tiu xt trn tng
th. Trn thc t iu ny l khng th. Vn khng phi
ch ni rng nu mt nh ti tr cung cp thm mt triu
la th chi tiu cho hot ng c ti tr s phi tng
mt triu la v bn thn khon chi tiu cng c th
c chnh ph tng thm mt triu la ngay c khi
khng c khon vin tr thm. bo m vic gia tng
chi tiu cho hot ng c ti tr, cc nh ti tr cn phi
yu cu chnh ph cam kt chi thm mt triu la so vi
mc m h l ra chi tiu nu nh h khng nhn c
khon vin tr. Nhng c l ng no th chnh ph cng
ni c?
ANH GIA VIN TR
92
Trn thc t, cc nh ti tr cn phi tha nhn rng
vin tr ca h l bt phn nh bi v l mt thc t.
Vn ny i hi phi cn nhc thm v cch thc iu
phi vin tr. Vic iu phi vin tr mt cch hiu qu
cc nc khc nhau ph thuc vo tnh cht ca hot ng
chi tiu cng cng v hiu qu hot ng ca khu vc cng
cng. Mt thc o tnh hiu qu ca khu vc cng cng l
ch s qun l kinh t. Mt khuyn ngh nu ra trc y
l trong hai nc ngho nh nhau, th nc c c ch
qun l tt cn phi nhn c s ti tr nhiu hn nc c
c ch qun l ti (xem chng 1).
Nu mt nc c kh nng qun l chi tiu cng cng
tt th t phn vin tr di dng h tr ngn sch chung
c th ln hn so vi cc nc khc. iu ny xut pht t
vic tha nhn tnh bt phn nh v tit kim chi ph hnh
chnh ca hot ng vin tr. Nhng iu ny rt quan
trng - mt d n c trng ca Ngn hng Th gii
thng tiu tn khong mt triu la cho cc khon chi
ph hnh chnh. Nu mt d n chng qua ch lp li mt
ci g m mt nc lm tng i tt (xy dng mt
nh my in khc trong mt h thng t chc qun l
thnh tho), th c rt t gi tr gia tng t cc khon chi
ph hnh chnh. Cung cp h tr ngn sch chung c th s
gii phng cc nhn vin v ngun lc ca cc nh ti tr
cho mc ch khc, cc hot ng mang li gi tr gia tng
cao hn.
Cc vn ca qun l chi tiu cng cng thng tn
ti di mt trong hai dng: khng hiu qu trong phn b
ngun lc gia cc hot ng khc nhau v khng hiu qu
trong vic s dng cc ngun lc c phn b.
C cu chi tiu. Trc ht hy xem xt trng hp mt
nc thc hin mi hot ng kh tt, nhng vn tip tc
chi tiu vo nhiu khon khng hiu qu bi v th trng
t nhn cng khng th lm nhng vic ny tt hn hay
n gin l li sut x hi qu thp. Hy c gi s rng
mt nc c nht nh u t cc khon ti chnh cng
cng ln vo gio dc bc cao. Cc nh ti tr th thng
thng li mun ti tr cho gio dc tiu hc tng t
phn ngn sch tng i ca khon chi tiu ny. Nhng
do tnh bt phn nh nn cch tip cn ny l khng c c
s. Mt cch tip cn tt hn c th l h tr ti chnh theo
cch "chia nh thi gian" cho ngn sch gio dc.
Cc nh ti tr cn phi
tha nhn rng vin tr
ca h l bt phn nh
bi v l mt thc t.
Cc cng c nh Chng trnh u t ngnh c
pht trin phc v ring cho mc ch ny. Cc nh ti
ANH GIA VIN TR
93
tr v chnh ph nhn vin tr tin ti mt tho thun chung
v cc mc tiu cho ngnh c th - xy dng cc d n v
cc chng trnh t c mc tiu ny. Cc nh ti tr
sau h tr ti chnh cho nhng d n c th trong phm vi
chng trnh tho thun hoc h tr chung cho ngn sch
ca ngnh . Vic nh gi nh k Chng trnh u t
ngnh to ra mt din n cho cc nh ti tr v chnh ph
nhn vin tr trao i mt cch thnh tht cc kin lin
quan ti chng trnh chi tiu ngnh tng th. Cc nh ti tr
c th s dng cuc i thoi chnh sch ny ci tin vic
phn b cc khon chi tiu. Mt c ch khc m mt s
nc th nghim l xy dng Khung chi tiu trung hn
nhm tm cch to ra cc nh hng chin lc cho chnh
ph. Tuy nhin, cc nghin cu tnh hung Gana v
Ugana pht hin ra rng c ch ny khng c thnh
cng nh mong i. Gana, cc khon chi tiu c la
chn l nhng chi tiu nng ct. Sc p a thm nhng
khon chi tiu khc vo chi tiu nng ct dn n vic to
nn cc khon chi tiu "siu nng ct", mt khi nim cng
c p ra nh vy. C hai khi nim ny u c hu b
vo nm 1990. Tuy vy, chng ai c th mong i mt s k
diu c th xy ra v nhng kinh nghim trc y i vi
nhng sng kin ny cho thy rng c rt nhiu kh khn
cn bn khi thc hin.
Cc cuc i thoi ci m l rt b ch, nn s l khng
thc t nu chng ta hy vng c mt s nht tr hon ton
v cc hot ng quan trng m chnh ph cn phi thc
hin. C rt nhiu kin khc nhau v vai tr ca chnh
ph gia nc vin tr v nc nhn vin tr v gia cc
nc vin tr vi nhau. Nhiu ngi tin rng chnh ph cn
phi tr cp cho gio dc i hc v sau i hc. Nhiu
ngi khc khng cho rng nh vy l ng. Nhiu ngi
tin rng chnh ph cn phi ng vai tr quan trng trong
vic phn b tn dng. Nhiu ngi khc li ni rng
khng cn. Chnh ph cn phi cung cp in, mt vi
ngi ni nh vy. Nhiu ngi khc khng ng . Bt
ng khng ch xy ra vi mc v tnh cht ca cc
khim khuyt ca th trng m cn xy ra nhng vn
nh l mc chnh ph can thip vo vic phn phi li.
Cc t vn mang tnh chnh tr - k thut n thun s
khng gii quyt hu ht cc xung t lin quan ti
vic phn b gia cc ngnh v trong mt ngnh nhng
gia cc hng mc chi tiu khc nhau. Nm 1990, Thu
in chi tiu gp ba ln mc 11,5% GDP cho tr cp x
hi (Lindert 1994). Cn c vo s khc bit rt ln gia cc
nc vin tr trong vic phn b cc khon chi tiu v
C rt nhiu kin
khc nhau v vai tr
ca ch nh ph gia
nc vin tr v nc
nhn vin tr v gia
cc nc vin tr vi
nhau.
ANH GIA VIN TR
94
trch nhim ca khu vc t nhn v cng cng th kh c
th tin c rng s c mt s nht tr cao thng qua c
ch dn ch, ngay c gia cc nh ti tr vi nhau, cn
gia cc nh ti tr v nc nhn vin tr s nht tr s
thp hn nhiu.
Hiu qu chi tiu. By gi hy gi s rng mt nc
nhn vin tr c cc khon phn b chi tiu c cc nh
ti tr h tr chung nhng phn phi dch v khng hiu
qu. Nu mt nc tin hnh ci cch kinh t v m,
nc cn phi nhn c mt khon vin tr ln. Ci
cch kinh t v m khng kh khn v mt k thut, nhng
xy dng mt khu vc cng cng hiu qu th l mt thch
thc ln hn. Trong trng hp ny, cc nh ti tr cn
phi gn cht v c bn vo phng php tip cn d n.
Lc ny, mc tiu chnh ca d n khng phi l tng chi
tiu cho mt hot ng c th, m l gip thay i th
ch v chnh sch tm v m ni nh hng ti phn phi
dch v. Cn nh gi hiu qu khu vc cng cng ra
quyt nh sng sut v phng thc phn phi vin tr.
Mt khi cc nc tin hnh ci cch kinh t v m, nc
no c khu vc cng cng hiu qu c th nhn h tr
ngn sch, cn nc no c khu vc cng cng khng hiu
qu s c nhn t tin v nhiu tng hn.
Nu vic phn b cc khon chi tiu mt nc no
b bp mo mt cch thm t v lnh vc cng cng hot
ng khng hiu qu th th ch v chnh sch ca nc
s rt km ci v cc khon ti chnh h tr s c t gi tr.
Tuy nhin, phn ng thng thng ca cc nh ti tr s l
tm ra mt ci g c ch u t. Tnh bt phn nh
gip chng ta gii thch ti sao cc khon vin tr ln
khng c tc dng lu di trong nhng mi trng b bp
mo cao ny. Khng c mt phng n no khc ngoi
s kin nhn. Nhng c rt nhiu cch khng tn km m
cc nh ti tr c th h tr to ra mt mi trng chi tiu
cng cng hu hiu. y chnh l ch ca chng 4.
1
Chuyn vin kinh t trng u tin ca Ngn hng Th gii, Paul Rodenstein-Rodan, trong nhng nm
1950 nhn mnh rng ngay c khi vic ti tr c gn vi cc d n, tin thng vn l bt phn nh.
Vic nh gi vin tr ngay t nhng nm 1960 a ra vn tnh bt phn nh (Little v Clifford
1965).
ANH GIA VIN TR
94
Chng 4
Vin tr c th lm b cho cc th ch
hiu qu
V cc nn kinh t th gii ang dch chuyn mt cch
khng trnh khi theo hng theo ui chnh sch ng h
th trng, khu vc cng cng ang c nh hng li v
gim dn quy m. Ngi ta h ho rng "cng gim cng
tt". Nhng liu s phn ng ny c th i c bao xa?
Trong rt nhiu lnh vc quan trng, c rt nhiu ngha v
cng cng thit yu - pht trin c s h tng vt cht, th
ch v con ngi - m chnh ph phi tip tc thc hin.
Trong cc lnh vc ny, cng gim khng nht thit l cng
tt, m phi l "cng tt th cng tt hn".
Cha kho ca s pht trin l chnh ph phi lm tt
nhng vic m chnh ph phi lm. Do vin tr (c tin v
tng) ch yu h tr lnh vc cng cng, chng ta c
th a ra cu hi: Thit k vin tr pht trin nh th no
n gip cc chnh ph thc hin tt hn cc hot
ng thit yu i vi tng trng v gim ngho? Cu hi
khc l: Lm th no vin tr c th kt hp h tr ti
chnh v s gip nng cao kin thc cho nc nhn vin
tr cc chnh ph c th ci thin cht lng v hiu qu
ca dch v cng cng?
Vic nng cao kin thc khng ng ngha vi vic cc
t chc ti tr (hoc chuyn gia do h thu) c nhng thng
tin v k thut v n gin l chuyn giao cho nc nhn
vin tr. Trong lnh vc cng cng, kin thc pht trin l cn
thit c th thit k v qun l mt cch hiu qu cc t
chc c trch nhim cung ng dch v cng cng: trng tiu
hc En Xanvao, cung cp nc Ghin, bo dng ng
Tandania, hay iu tit v dch v cng ch chentina.
Kin thc ny khng tn ti u c th gi trong va li
v em ti cc nc ang pht trin. Kin thc ny buc phi
c to ra ti nc s ti v ni a ho th mi c tc dng.
Cc nguyn l ang tn ti phi lun lun c iu chnh
thch ng vi hon cnh mi hoc hon cnh a phng
(hoc c hai) v chnh ph v cng dn cc nc ang pht
trin phi i u trong vic to ra nhng kin thc mi ny.
Tuy nhin, cc c quan pht trin cng c th em ti nhng
gi tr gia tng c bit.
S tp trung nht qun vo vic ci thin cht lng khu
Thit k vin tr
pht trin nh th
no n gip
cc ch nh ph thc
hin tt hn cc hot
ng l thit yu i
vi tng trng v
gim ngho?
ANH GIA VIN TR
Vin tr c th lM b cho cc th ch hiu qu
95
vc cng cng ng ngha vi vic dch chuyn cn bn
phng thc thc hin cng tc vin tr - trong vic la chn
cc cng c, cch thc s dng v nh gi cc cng c
cch thc cc nh ti tr gn chnh ph vi x hi dn s.
Trc khi la chn cc cng c, trc ht cc nh ti tr
cn phi c mc tiu r rng. Vai tr ca vin tr thay i
ph thuc vo hon cnh ca tng nc; kt hp vin tr
pht trin ti chnh v phi ti chnh phi c thit k theo
yu cu c th. mt s nc ngho c lnh vc cng cng
hot ng hiu qu, nhim v ca vin tr nc ngoi l
r rng: n gin l ti tr cho vic m rng dch v cng
cng chc chn s thnh cng v c li. Tuy nhin, hu ht
cc nc ang pht trin, chnh ph hot ng khng hiu
qu trong vic cung cp cc dch v cng cng v ti tr
thm cho cc hot ng khng hiu qu nh vy chc hn s
khng thnh cng v khng c li. Trong nhng trng hp
ny, vin tr nc ngoi cn tp trung vo tng hiu qu cc
dch v cng cng ct li. Vic ny i hi mt hn hp hp
l cc khon ti tr v tng to ra gi tr gia tng ln
nht. Tin thng thng khng phi l quan trng nht. Cc
c quan vin tr cn phi c tm nhn vt ra ngoi vic
cung cp ti chnh ti s h tr to ra kin thc mi.
Kt hp gia cc cuc i thoi chnh sch v h tr ti
chnh s c kh nng tng hiu qu hn l vic tp trung
mt cch thin cn vo vic thc hin thnh cng d n
c ti tr. i khi, cc nh ti tr gy tr ngi cho vic
to ra lnh vc cng cng hiu qu v h cho rng lun
lch quanh cc th ch ca nc s ti l cch d nht
t c mc tiu d n. Cc nh ti tr cn phi thuyt
phc cc nc v gi tr ca chnh sch v th ch hon
thin hn hn l kh kh bo v d n "ca h" khi nhng
hu qu ti t ca cc chnh sch .
Trc khi la chn
cc cng c, trc
ht cc nh ti tr
cn phi c mc tiu
r rng.
Cung ng cng cng tt hn
Cung ng dch v cng cng mt cch c kt qu v
hiu qu i hi tt c cc thnh vin tham gia - chnh ph,
ngi cung ng (cho d l cng chc hay t nhn), v cc
cng dn - phi c khuyn khch hp l. Cc bin php
khuyn khch ny c rt nhiu v: t vic lm cho chnh
ph p ng li cc cng dn trong vic bo m c cu
quyn li ca cc khon chi tr cng v, cho n vic thit
k cc tho thun nhng b ph hp vi hon cnh ca
t nc v ca tng ngnh kinh t.
ANH GIA VIN TR
96
Trch nhim gii trnh
qua ri ci thi chnh ph l cc nh cung ng dch v
c quyn (gio dc, y t, ng s, v.v..) m khng c trch
nhim gii trnh cho cng dn (trc tip hay gin tip) v cc
hot ng ca h. Trong nhng nm gn y, cc nh ti tr
ngy cng hng s h tr ti trch nhim gii trnh v lnh
o cng nh cc sng kin nhm h tr s tham gia v nng
cao ting ni ca cng ng trong hot ng ca chnh ph.
Trong hng lot ngnh, cc ci cch ny mang nhng ci tn
khc nhau v di nhng dng khc nhau nhng cng phn
nh cng mt nhn t thc y - cung cp nc nng thn
("tham gia"), h thng thu li ("nhm s dng nc"),
trng hc ("phn cp" v "t qun trng hc"), vn ti
("ban qun l ng b"), y t ("hip hi cng ng") v
qun l mi trng ("lm nghip cng ng").
Cc khon ti tr c th tc ng tch cc hoc tiu cc
ti trch nhim gii trnh v cht lng dch v cng cng.
Trong lnh vc thu li, c y ry cc v d v cch thc
trong chnh ph v cc nh ti tr do qu ch vo mc
tiu s lng (hay u t) v cng ngh hin i dn ti
vic loi tr ngi hng li d kin ra khi qu trnh lp k
hoch, thit k v trin khai d n. i khi vic loi b c
th dn ti nhng kt cc ng ngn. Mt h thng thy li
c ti tr ln Npan c chuyn gia k thut thit k
vi gi nh l vng hng li cha c ti tiu (Ostrom
1996). Mt s chm tr tnh c ca d n cho php ngi ta
c thi gian pht hin ra rng trn thc t c 85 h
thng thu li do nng dn qun l hot ng tt . Mt
d n thu li Npan khc trn thc t lm gim nng
sut nng nghip do lm tan r cc tho thun tn ti trc
gia nng dn vi nhau (Hilton 1990, 1992).
Mt vn ti din vi cc d n thu li l khng c
ngun thu cho duy tu bo dng. Vic ch nng thy li
ph s khng gii quyt c vn tr phi cc nh cung
cp c th gii trnh c v cc khon thu cn thit phi
c s dng bo dng. Ngay c khi ngun thu cho
duy tu bo dng, c cu t chc ca ngi cung cp cng
c th l vn nan gii. C mt nghin cu so snh cc
h thng thu li n v Hn Quc (Wade 1995).
Trong khi hai h thng l ging nhau, s thit k cc ban
thu li (c trch nhim phn phi nc) ca h khc nhau
dn n s khc nhau cn bn trong thc hin. n l
mt v qun l tp trung da vo ngun kho bc; Hn
Quc cc quan chc thu li l ngi a phng v c lin
lc trc tip vi nng dn.
Cc khon ti tr c
th tc ng t ch
cc hoc tiu cc ti
trch nhim gii
trnh v cht lng
dch v cng cng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
97
Cc vn nh vy khng phi l c trng cho thu
li, m l cn bnh ca hot ng phn phi dch v rt
nhiu ngnh khc - cung cp nc sinh hot, chm sc y
t, gio dc, bo dng ng s - mt phn do cch thc
xy dng d n vin tr. S ch vo tng khi lng vin
tr ti chnh gii quyt vn tng trng hng cc
c quan vin tr ti cc mc tiu tp trung vo quy m v
tc gii ngn v p dng phng php k tr thit k
cc d n u t. Ngay c khi cc bn u bit c phng
n tt hn th "gii ngn" c th d dng v nhanh chng
tr thnh mc tiu quan trng nht ca cc c quan vin
tr (xem Tendler 1975). Vi cch ngh , cc c quan
vin tr thng d la chn d n ln so vi cc d n nh
v thch quan h trc tip vi cc c quan trung ng
qu trnh nhanh chng v hiu qu (Khung 4.1). Lm nh
vy cng vic k ton v qun l hnh chnh s d dng
hn. Trong rt nhiu trng hp, d n u t ca cc nh
ti tr - vi tin v ngn sch c nh - ngn cn s
tham gia ca nhng ngi hng li vo d n. Trong vi
trng hp, iu ny dn n mt "thi quen c tha
nhn" cc t chc vin tr, ni thnh cng c nh gi
bi khi lng tin c gii ngn (Ngn hng Th gii
1992).
Khung 4.1 Vin tr v tp quyn
"Tng cng vai tr ca chnh quyn a
phng, c bit l trong hot ng phn phi dch
v cng cng - v d nh y t, phc li x hi,
khuyn nng, v cung cp c s h tng nng
thn, tt c nhng ci c pht trin
Philippin - v trc quan l thch hp. Nhng trn
thc t, vic phn quyn dn ti nhng kh
khn khi xy dng cc d n ti tr. Cc vn
ny khng hay ny sinh cc d n vin tr khng
hon li nh l cc d n vay n, khi m vn
qun l tin vay tr thnh mt ro cn. Cc c
quan ti tr thng khng sn sng cho cc nh
cm quyn a phng vay trc tip m khng c
s bo lnh ca chnh ph. Tuy nhin, bo lnh
nh th i ngc li nguyn tc giao trch nhim
cho nh cm quyn a phng. Khi a phng
khng c nng lc cn thit qun l tin vay,
cc c quan chnh ph c xu hng xy dng cc
d n trong a phng b tc bt quyn, v
iu ny hu hoi qu trnh chuyn giao trch
nhim xung cp di" (xem Habito, trong
OECF/Ngn hng Th gii 1998, 21).
Khi nh gi kt qu kinh nghim hot ng 30 nm ca
c quan ti tr an Mch i vi ngnh nc nng thn
Tandania ngi ta pht hin ra cc vn tng t (duy tu
bo dng yu km v cng ng t tham gia) xy ra thng
xuyn, nhng vn khng chu sa i ng k cng tc thit
k d n. Phng php tin hnh ca cc c quan vin tr
c nh hng bi nhu cu thc hin d n ch khng phi
l to ra ngun cung cp nc tho mn nhu cu ca ngi
hng li d n. Mt nh gi v kinh nghim trong lnh vc
ANH GIA VIN TR
98
thu li ca Ngn hng Th gii cng ch ra rng mc d li
ch ca vic tham gia ca ngi s dng vo d n l rt ln,
"cc chuyn gia thu li rt min cng huy ng s tham
gia bi v h hiu rng iu s ko di thi gian thc
hin d n" (xem Jones 1995, tr. 141).
Mt s thc o o tm quan trng ca s tham gia ca
nhng ngi hng li i vi thnh cng ca d n c th
c ch ra t vic nh gi 121 d n nc nng thn
c ti tr bi cc nh ti tr v t chc phi chnh ph
49 nc (Narayan 1995; Isham, Narayan v Pritchett
1995). Phn khi qut ch ra rng 68% cc d n c s
tham gia mc cao rt thnh cng. Nhng trong s cc
d n c t s tham gia ca nhng ngi hng li, ch c
12% l c kt qu. Mt pht hin quan trng khc l khng
ch s tham gia ca nhng ngi hng li l c ngha
quan trng ti thnh cng ca d n, m n c th c
khuyn khch hoc ngn cn bi vic thit k d n v
hnh ng ca chnh ph. Nhng c quan thc hin tch
cc huy ng s tham gia ca ngi hng li d kin ca
d n c 62% s d n thnh cng (hnh 4.1). Ngc
li, cc c quan chnh ph khng tch cc huy ng s
tham gia ca ngi hng li kt thc d n ca h vi kt
qu km hn v ch c 10% l thnh cng cao.
Khi coi s tham gia
ca ngi hng li
l mt mc tiu, 62%
s d n thnh cng
- nu khng lm nh
vy, ch c 10%
thnh cng.
Mt nghin cu khc pht hin ra rng cc d n u t
c kt qu tt hn nhng nc m ngi dn c hng
t do cng dn (Isham, Kaufmann, v Pritchett 1997). y
khng phi l thc o mc dn ch chnh tr m l
thc o mc t do th hin quan im ca ngi dn
(t do bo ch, t do hi hp, t do cht vn chnh ph). T
do cng dn l rt quan trng ngay c i vi cc d n
nh gi theo li sut kinh t - l cc d n c coi hon
ton l vn k tr ca cc nh k s v kinh t, hon
ton tch ri khi sc p ca cng ng (Ph lc 4). Mt
s tht l tht bi ca mt d n (d n vi li sut kinh t
tng kt thp hn 10%) cc nc c mc t do cng
dn thp hn c xc sut cao hn 50% (hnh 4.2).
Cc nh ti tr ngy cng khuyn khch s tham gia ca
nhng ngi hng li v s lm ch a phng. Nhm
mc ch , h bt tay vo hng lot sng kin mi, bao
gm c cc qu u t x hi. Cc qu ny khng quy nh
c th tp hp cc d n theo lnh vc (d n ng b, hay
c th xy dng cc trng hc mi cc lng c th). Thay
vo , h quy nh th tc theo cc cng ng dn c c
th xin tin cho bt k mt d n no m h c th thc hin
trn c s iu kin chi ph hp l cn phi bn vng v
ng gp li ch cho cng ng, v.v.. Qu kiu c
Hnh 4.1. S tham gia ca
ngi hng li v thnh
cng ca d n
D n thnh cng
(Phn trm trn tng s)
S tham gia
khng phi
l mc tiu
S tham gia l
mt mc tiu
quan trng
Ngun: Isham, Narayan v
Pritchett 1995
ANH GIA VIN TR
99
lp ra trn 20 nc v theo nh gi s b, chng kh
thnh cng. iu ny buc cc nh ti tr phi thay i t
vic xy dng d n sang xy dng th tc: qu cn phi
quy nh r rng th tc ti tr cho cc d n v nh gi
kh nng cc th tc s gip to ra cc d n c li ch
lu di. Nhng nh gi ny cng pht hin ra rng ngay c
cc qu x hi cng c nhng c tnh th hin l mt cuc
chy ua nc rt trnh cc khim khuyt v mt th ch v
v th ch l mt gii php tm thi.
Cc nh ti tr cng tr nn linh hot hn i vi vic
cho php iu chnh d n trong qu trnh thc hin v
khuyn khch "hc tp dn" nhm t c cc mc tiu
pht trin. V d: l s h tr ca Ngn hng Th gii cho
d n v sinh PROSANEAR ca Braxin. c Qu kinh t
lin bang (Caixa Economica Federal) ti tr mt phn, d
n ny s dng mt chin lc thu gom nc thi hu hiu.
"PROSANEAR t ho v mc tham gia ca cng ng
v vic chia s trch nhim. Cng ng tham gia su hn
vo vic kim sot vic s dng ca cc h gia nh, hot
ng ca h thng v qun l vic sa cha h thng ca
mnh. c trng ng ngc nhin nht ca d n l s
nhit tm ca Qu nhm iu chnh thit k v cng vic
theo cc bi hc rt ra" (Ngn hng Th gii 1995a, tr. 6).
T do cng dn l
quan trng i vi
cc d n kinh t.
Th lao v kt qu hot ng ca khu vc cng cng
Phng php tip cn cc khon vin tr nhn mnh
vo lng u t v k nng k tr c xu hng khng
lng ht vai tr ca cc bin php khuyn khch trong
vic quy nh cc hnh ng m ngi cung ng dch v
cng cng phi tin hnh. Trc y, cc nh k tr ca
chnh ph v cc nh ti tr gi nh rng mt khi nh my
in c xy dng, chng s hot ng hu hiu; cc con
ng mi s c bo tr; cc trm y t, mt khi c xy
dng, s cung cp dch v c cht lng. Trn thc t, li
ch s ch vn ng khi cc nh cung ng dch v (ch yu
l b my cng chc) nhn c cc bin php khuyn
khch mt cch y . C cc nh ti tr song phng v
a phng gi y nhn ra rng cc bin php khuyn
khch l ht sc quan trng i vi s thnh cng v h
tr ci cch qun l khu vc cng cng v ngnh cng v.
Nhiu nc ngho pht hin ra rng, kh c th duy tr
cc cng v mt cch tn tm, hiu qu v thnh tho do
mc lng thc t ca khu vc cng cng ngy cng
xung dc trong vng 15-20 nm qua. Tr lng thp
(nhng khng phi lm vic c bit qu mc) cng vi
ng c lm vic thp lm cho cc cng chc, c bit
Hnh 4.2. T do cng dn
v xc sut tht bi cc
d n ca Ngn hng
Th gii.
Xc sut tht bi
Nhiu t do
cng dn hn
t t do cng
dn hn
Ngun: Isham, Kaufmann, v
ANH GIA VIN TR
100
l cp cao, chuyn sang lm thm ngoi gi hoc
tham nhng (Ngn hng Th gii 1995b). Th d cho n
1986, mc lng thc t Tandania gim ti mc bng
mt phn nm gi tr mc lng nm 1969-1977. Lng
ca cc cng chc cp cao nht cn gim hn nhiu, ch
cn bng 6% mc trc y. T l tin tr cho quan chc
cp cao nht so vi mc lng ti thiu ch l 5/1. Tin
lng thng khng phi l vn . Ngay c nhng nc
m tin tr cho cng chc cao, c cu khuyn khch
cng cha . S bo m ch lm v tng lng theo
thm nin chng khuyn khch mt ci g ngoi vic tham
quyn.
Pritchett 1997.
c bit l nhng nc ngho v ph thuc vo vin
tr, cc nh ti tr nhiu khi lm nhiu vic c hi hn l c
li. Do n lc tm nhng ngi tt nht phc v cho d n,
cc nh ti tr c th khng sng sut khi ginh ht cc
cn b gii giang v thng minh nht bng cch a ra
nhng mc lng v iu kin lm vic m chnh ph khng
c c. Mt nghin cu c lp ghi nhn rng Ngn hng
Th gii tuyn tm nhn vin vi mc lng 3000-6000
la mt thng cho mt d n nng nghip Knia; trong s
tm ngi th by ngi l thu t khu vc cng chc, ni
mc lng thng cho mt nh kinh t hc cao cp l khong
250 la. Cc t chc quc t Mdmbch tr gp nm
ln mc lng cng chc cho cc chuyn gia v gp 10 ln
cho cc k thut vin (Fallon v Pereira da Silva 1995). S
kt hp gia tin lng khu vc cng v thp v cnh tranh
gia cc nh ti tr thu ht cc cn b c k nng lm cho
cng tc h tr tng cng nng lc ca cng chc ht sc
kh khn. Cc nhn vin ri c quan ngay sau khi c o
to. Mt chng trnh Knia c C quan pht trin quc
t Canaa (CIDA) ti tr o to 13 nh kinh t hc
trnh thc s; trong vng mt nm, 10 ngi trong s h
tm c cng vic ngoi khu vc chnh ph v 3 ngi cn
li ang tm kim vo lc (van de Walle v Johnston
1996).
Ci cch cng v cng thng tc i cc nhn vin
thnh tho nht ca khu vc cng cng. Ci cch thng i
km vi gim bin ch (bit ng cho khi nim sa thi lao
ng tha). Khi iu ny mang tnh "t nguyn" (nhn vin
c nhn mt khon chi trn gi, thng thng ho phng
hn l theo quy nh ca php lut), th cc nhn vin c k
nng nht thng l nhng ngi ri b u tin. Tuy nhin,
vic gim bin ch khng thnh vn . Nm 1991, Pru
thng bo hai t gim bin ch ln trong i ng cng chc.
Mt t gim bin ch ng lot trn mi lnh vc lm
gim 250.000 nhn vin. Sau 163.000 trong s ny
Thng thng mt
d n tht bi l do
th ch v cc t
chc cng cng yu
km.
ANH GIA VIN TR
101
c thu tr li. Ngc li, vic gim bin ch nhm vo
nhng k nng khng cn thit trong ngnh thu gim
c hai phn ba s nhn vin. S cn li c tng lng v
doanh thu thu tng gp i (Haltiwanger v Singh chun
b xut bn).
Th ch cng cng hu hiu
Thng thng mt d n tht bi l do th ch v cc t
chc cng cng yu km. C hng lot cc bng chng v
cch m nng lc th ch nh hng ti tng trng kinh t
v s thnh cng ca cc d n u t. Mt nghin cu gn
y ch ra rng trong vng 30 nm tnh n nm 1994, cc
nc c chnh sch lnh mnh v mt th ch chnh ph hu
hiu v c kh nng tng trng vi tc khong 3%
tnh theo mc bnh qun u ngi mi nm, trong khi cc
nc c chnh sch lnh mnh nhng th ch yu km ch
tng trng khong 1,4% mt nm (Ngn hng Th gii
1997a).
S dng mt ch s da trn thc o khc nhau v
cht lng hot ng ca chnh ph, mt nh gi ca
nhn vin Ngn hng Th gii gn y i vi cc d n
do Ngn hng ti tr pht hin ra rng, trong khi t l
thnh cng trung bnh ca cc d n do Ngn hng ti tr
l 68%, th t l d n thnh cng cc nc c chnh sch
lnh mnh v th ch vng vng l 86%. Cc nc khng
c chnh sch lnh mnh v th ch c kh nng b tht bi
52%, gp khong bn ln t l tht bi ca cc nc c
chnh sch v lnh o tt (hnh 5 phn Tng quan).
Nghin cu ny kt lun l: "Khi xy dng d n nhng
nc c chnh sch v th ch yu km, tt nht l Ngn
hng tp trung vo cc dch v vay n v phi vay n da
trn c s chnh sch h tr cho cng tc lp chnh sch
chin lc v kh nng thc hin ca chnh ph" (Ngn
hng Th gii 1997a, tr. 13).
Liu mt d n vin tr pht trin chnh thc c thit
k tt c ngha l cc th ch cng cng hu hiu hn
khng? Do vin tr gn nh ch cp cho (hay cp qua)
chnh quyn trung ng nn chng nh hng ti cch
thc phn pht cc dch v cng cng. Nhn chung, dch v
c chnh ph cung cp phi l cc loi dch v kh c
th c phn phi qua th trng, hoc do chng l hng
ho cng cng n thun c li chung (an ninh quc gia,
lut php) hoc do chng c cc tc ng ngoi hin kh
c th lng gi c (dch v y t, bo v mi trng).
Tuy nhin, bn cht ca cc dch v ny bao hm cc vn
trong vic thit k cc th ch bn vng v cc bin
Thit k ca cc d
n cn phi c
iu chnh ph hp
vi thc t l tin
hay ngun vn
khng quan trng
bng th ch hu
hiu hay tng hay
ANH GIA VIN TR
102
php khuyn khch vic phn phi v hot ng ca khu
vc cng cng t hiu qu.
Quan tm ti vic thc hin d n hu hiu, cc nh ti
tr thng thit lp cc n v thc hin d n gn nh c
lp i vi cc b chuyn ngnh (v i khi bn ngoi c
quan chnh ph). Cc nh ti tr lm nh vy "kh kh
bo v" cc d n do h ti tr khi nhng yu km ti t
trong khu vc cng cng. Khi d n c thc hin "thnh
cng" v chuyn giao cho b ch qun iu phi hot
ng, b ny thiu s nhit tm, kh nng v ngun lc
tip tc iu phi hot ng. Cc d n n l c th c tc
dng cho mc ch th nghim, gii thiu hay nh gi.
Nhng "thnh cng" c o lng theo ngha hp c c
vi ci gi ca s hy sinh vic nng cao nng lc th ch
chng qua ch l mt chin thng Pyrrhic (chin thng phi
tr gi qu t khng b p c - BT) v l k th ca s
thnh cng thc s ca vin tr.
Thit k ca cc d n cn phi c iu chnh ph hp
vi thc t l tin hay ngun vn khng quan trng bng th
ch lnh mnh hoc tng hay. Mc tiu ca mt d n
gio dc khng phi l tng ngun qu cho d n (iu
ny c th thc hin c m khng cn c d n) m l gip
cc nh ci cch thay i tng, th ch v chnh sch
cho lnh vc gio dc. Mt d n hu hiu thc s l mt lot
cc hot ng khng phi l xy dng trng hc, m quan
trng hn, gip thay i cch thc hot ng ca cc
trng nng cao cht lng gio dc. Xy dng cc trng
hc, bnh vin hay ng s tt nht s l v ngha nu
khng c th ch duy tr hot ng ca chng.
iu c ngha l nhng d n thnh cng nht
thng phi c s i mi. Nu mt nc c kh nng xy
dng trng hc v qun l chng, cc nh ti tr s n
gin ch cn cung cp h tr ngn sch chung. Tnh ng
n ca mt d n l n lm c nhng vic khc so vi
hin ti. Nu cc trng hc ang tn ti v hot ng hu
hiu th mt d n hu ch c th l nng cp chng v
gip iu chnh cc c ch t chc (v d, tng s tham
gia ca cng ng vo vic ra quyt nh). Mt d n nh
vy c th c rt kinh nghim t mt d n khc c
thc hin u , nhng n l mt sng kin ch xt
xem ni no l ni d n cn c thc hin.
Mt h qu quan trng rt ra t iu ny l t l thnh
cng ca cc d n c ti tr khng phi l yu t quan
trng c bit - nu nh s thnh cng ch c xc nh theo
ngha hp. Mt c quan hot ng hu hiu phi ti tr cho
rt nhiu d n i mi v mt vi d n ny c th "tht bi"
- vi ci ngha l n khng dn ti cc dch v tt hn. Cu
Nu mt d n c
coi l "thnh cng"
ch v chng lp li
thnh cng trc
y, th c quan vin
tr c ng c sai
ANH GIA VIN TR
103
hi quan trng t ra l liu cc nc ang pht trin c thu
c cc kin thc mt cch c h thng t cc th nghim
kiu nh vy hay khng. Cc d n tht bi thng em li
nhiu bi hc b ch nh l (v thng l nhiu hn) cc d
n thnh cng. Nu mt d n c coi l "thnh cng" ch v
chng lp li thnh cng trc y, th c quan vin tr c
ng c sai trong vic cung cp vin tr hu hiu. Cc nh
qun l s mun trnh nhng d n i mi v c ri ro nn
thng ng h cc d n c bit l hot ng c hiu
qu. iu ny dn n s cnh tranh khng hu ch v khng
thch ng gia cc nh ti tr "ht vng" v ch ti tr
cho cc hng mc trong chng trnh u t cng cng c v
s thnh cng - ngay c khi c hoc khng c vin tr ca
cc nh ti tr.
khc phc nhc im ny, cc nh ti tr chuyn
theo hng nh gi s thnh cng ca d n theo tiu chun
rng hn. H thng nh gi tc ng ca cc d n i vi
nng lc th ch ca cc c quan trong lnh vc lin quan.
Ly v d mt d n xy dng ng s. Liu c nn a vo
cc cng ngh tt hn cho vic thit k v xy dng ng?
Liu chnh sch gi c v cc chnh sch khc c m bo
vic duy tu bo dng ng hay khng? Liu nhn vin ca
cc c quan c nhn c s o to cn thit? nh gi liu
c mt "tc ng th ch quan trng" hay khng ch yu
l do vic t cu hi cho nc nhn vin tr xem d n
gip nc nhn vin tr thay i cch thc qun l lnh
vc ng b nh th no.
Ch rng mt d n c th c "kt qu" thnh
cng - con ng c xy dng v c li ch cao - nhng
khng c tc ng lu di. mt kha cnh khc, d n c
th "tht bi" nhng dn ti s pht trin th ch
quan trng. iu ny cng ng i vi cc phng thc
sng to trong vic phn phi dch v m rt nhiu vin tr
hin nay nhm vo. Phng php i mi ny c th cng
khng c kt qu, nhng nu n c nh gi mt cch
h thng v kin thc c a vo cc d n ci cch rng
hn, th d n cng gp phn vo ci tin cng tc qun l
ca lnh vc lin quan.
Loi nh gi c th ny thng khng c thc hin
cho cc d n vin tr pht trin, nhng n c ngha tim
nng rt ln. Mt ln na, s i mi c th tht bi, nhng
vin tr pht trin s tng cng nng lc ca th ch lin
quan bng cch gip vic thit k v nh gi phng
php mi v to ra kin thc cho cc thnh vin. Cc nh
ti tr ngy cng nhn mnh tm quan trng c bit ca
kin thc c to ra nh d n ny. Ly v d Vng quc
Anh. Cun Sch trng v pht trin quc t gn y vit:
trong vic cung cp
vin tr hu hiu.
ANH GIA VIN TR
104
"Nghin cu l mt v kh quan trng trong cuc u
tranh chng li ngho kh. Nu khng c nghin
cu th nhiu s can thip nhm thc y pht trin
c th s tht bi hoc km thnh cng rt nhiu; v
nghin cu c tc ng nhn rng rt quan trng -
cc bin php gii quyt nguyn nhn ngho kh
mt nc ang pht trin c th c p dng li
mt nc khc. Nguyn l chia s kin thc l mt
b phn quan trng ca s hp tc ti cn thit cho
s pht trin. Chnh ph coi cc d n u t lin tc
vo vic to kin thc nh l mt yu t then cht
trong vic t c mc tiu v mc ch ca chnh
ph i vi vn pht trin quc t" (Sch trng,
Vng quc Anh, 1997, tr. 48).
Ngn hng Th gii nh gi mi d n kt thc da
vo vic nh gi xem n c "tc ng pht trin th ch
quan trng hay khng" iu ny c coi l "tiu thc
nh gi quan trng nht i vi tc ng pht trin di
hn" (Ngn hng Th gii 1997a, tr. 24). Tuy nhin, thnh
phn ny cng rt kh xc nh. Trong mt khong thi
gian di, khong 30% cc d n do Ngn hng Th gii ti
tr c tc ng "quan trng" i vi th ch v ch trong
my nm gn y con s ny mi tng ln ti 39%. Nh
vy, d n pht trin c kh nng gip cho s thay i
cn bn cch thc khu vc cng cng hot ng. Nhng
iu ny cng ch xy ra trong mt s rt t cc trng hp.
Theo kin ca chng ti, mt c quan pht trin hot
ng hu hiu phi chp nhn ri ro, nh gi mt cch h
thng cc kt qu d n v ph bin cc kin thc thu
c. S to ra v ph bin kin thc l mt trong nhng
ng gp ln nht m vin tr pht trin c th thc hin.
Cng vi cc nguyn l cn bn c i vi vin tr, trong
cc khon ti tr nhm gii quyt cc khim khuyt ca
th trng vn, hot ng ca cc nh ti tr cn phi
hng ti nhng khim khuyt ca th trng "kin thc"
(Stiglitz 1988). Tuy nhin, nhng nh gi mnh m v
nghim chnh nhm to ra kin thc c th thng rt tn
km v khng mt chnh ph no c ng c mnh
tin hnh cc nh gi s em li li ch cho nc khc.
Nu khng c
nghin cu th nhiu
can thip nhm thc
y pht trin c th
s tht bi hoc km
thnh cng rt
nhiu.
Cung ng cng cng khng qua c quan cng cng
cc khon vin tr hot ng hu hiu hn, chnh
ph cc nc ang pht trin ang c xu hng khc phc
truyn thng dnh vic cung ng dch v c tnh cht c
quyn cho cc c quan hnh chnh quan liu. Rt nhiu
ANH GIA VIN TR
105
dch v cng cng c th c cung cp mt cch hu hiu
(v thng hu hiu hn) bi cc t chc t nhn theo hnh
thc thu v khon. Cc nh ti tr v chnh ph hay chn
cc t chc phi chnh ph. Cc ngun ti chnh mi cng
to ra nhng thay i quan trng i vi ng c khuyn
khch cho cc nh cung ng, tng ting ni ca nhng
ngi hng li d kin v tng hiu qu vin tr.
Thu v khon
T nhn ho v gim dn ngha v u t gip gim
gnh nng cho ngn sch v gim nng lc ca khu vc
cng cng trong mt s lnh vc m vai tr ca n khng
cn qu quan trng. Tuy nhin, ngay c khi chnh ph gi
li trch nhim cung ng dch v, h khng nht thit phi
qun l chng thng qua cc c quan thng thng ca khu
vc cng cng. Rt nhiu hot ng c th em u thu
cho khu vc t nhn v s cnh tranh gia cc nh cung cp
tim nng c th s to ra sc p lm tng hiu qu chi ph.
iu ny xy ra nh th no? Hy nghin cu trng
hp ca AGETIPs (Agences d'Execution des Travaux
d'Intert Public), mt hip hi phi li nhun tham gia vo
cc hp ng khon ca chnh ph thc hin cc d n c
s h tng. D n u tin l Xngan, mt d n (c
thc hin thng qua hp ng vi cc nh cung cp t nhn
bng cch u thu m rng) cho php gim chi ph v s
chm tr. Cc nc Ty Phi khc cng nhanh chng s
dng m hnh ny (Ngn hng Th gii 1997c).
Khon l cch k hp ng vi cc nh cung cp t nhn
cung ng dch v m chnh ph khng t b quyn s hu
cng cng i vi ti sn hoc kim sot cng cng i vi
cc iu kin phn phi dch v. Mt hp ng khon
Ghin theo mt hng qun l t nhn m nhim vic vn
hnh mt h thng nc, hp ng c h tr bi tin vay
ca Hip hi pht trin quc t theo hnh thc Hip hi tr
phn chnh lch gia chi ph v doanh thu t ngi s dng.
Tr cp c gim t t v hot ng ca h thng ny gi
y hon ton mang tnh thng mi. iu ny ch ra cch
thc vin tr c th gip p dng nhng tho thun mi mt
cch sun s. V quan trng l cc nh ti tr c th chuyn
giao cc kinh nghim tch cc (v tiu cc) ti cc c quan
vin tr khc v cc nc khc ang xem xt nhng tho
thun tng t - l vic phn quyn qun l in Chil,
khon qun l nc chentina, hay l qun l ng thu
ph giao thng Mhic.
Ph bin kinh nghim v bi hc ca nhng nh i mi
l c bit quan trng nng cao hiu qu vin tr. Hy
Rt nhiu hot ng
dch v cng cng
c th c cung
cp mt cch hu
hiu (v thng hu
hiu hn) bi cc t
chc t nhn theo
hnh thc thu v
khon.
ANH GIA VIN TR
106
nghin cu cng trnh ng st, mt th d r rng v ph
bin thng tin ci cch trong qun l. ng st cc nc
ang pht trin thng hay hng hc v chi ph cao vi a s
u my toa xe ht hn s dng - tt c l do qun l cng
cng khng hiu qu v cnh tranh ca ng b v ng
khng. chentina l mt nc i mi trong lnh vc ng
st. Nc ny chia nh h thng lin bang cng knh thnh
nhiu mng li ng st ch ngi v hng v trao quyn
iu khin chng cho cc hng t nhn, i khi thng qua
cc tho thun khon "m" (khi cc hng b thu mc tr
cp thp nht m chnh ph phi tr cho h). Mc d mt s
tho thun khon ny c nhiu vn , nng sut lao ng
tng gp bn ln, gi c gim v khu vc cng cng tit
kim khong 600 triu la (Thompson v Budin 1997).
Quan trng hn i vi cc d n vin tr l cc c quan
pht trin tm cch bo m rng cc u nhc im rt
ra t kinh nghim ca chentina c a vo trong chng
trnh Braxin, Chil, Mhic v cc nc chu Phi, nhng
nc chuyn theo hng thc hin khon ng st.
Cc t chc phi ch nh ph l ngi cung cp dch v
Vic s dng cc t chc phi chnh ph (NGO) lm cc
c quan thc hin cho cc d n c ti tr l mt xu
hng ngy cng tng (Khung 4.2). Nhiu NGO cng nhn
c hp ng cung ng dch v vi chnh ph.
Cc NGO c li th trong cung cp dch v hn c cc
c quan chnh ph ln cc doanh nghip v li nhun. Cc
NGO c th tip cn cc nhm a phng v mc tiu mt
cch c kt qu hn cc c quan chnh ph truyn thng.
Nhng cc NGO khng phi l phng thuc cho cc
khim khuyt ca khu vc cng cng. Hn na, cc NGO
nc ngoi cng c nhiu vn nh cc nh ti tr trong
vic to ra s tn ti bn vng v tnh lm ch a phng
(Ngn hng Th gii 1998a). Nh vy, trong khi cc NGO
c th l mt phn ca h thng phn phi dch v, h
khng th thay th chnh ph v khng th l mt s thay
th lu di cho nng lc ca khu vc cng cng.
Khung 4.2 Mt s tri dy hu ch ca cc t
chc phi chnh ph
Mt bo co mi y ca Qu hp tc kinh t
hi ngoi Nht Bn (OECF) ghi nhn rng "s m
rng dn ch v s tham gia ca dn chng vo
cc hot ng chnh tr ngy mt nhiu hn theo
sau s kt thc ca cuc chin tranh lnh
khuyn khch hot ng ca cc t chc phi chnh
ph trn khp th gii. Chnh ph ca c cc nc
cng nghip v cc nc ang pht trin hiu
kh r vai tr rng ln ca cc t chc phi chnh
ph i vi s pht trin ca t nc. OECF
phi hp vi cc NGO a phng tin hnh
nghin cu trc v sau khi thc hin
ANH GIA VIN TR
107
i vi rt nhiu d n, bao gm d n trng cy gy
rng Aravalli Hills n v d n lm nghip
Philippin. OECF cng u quyn cho mt NGO
ca Nht, c tn l Hi Chim hoang d Nht Bn,
tin hnh kho st mi trng sng ca su l mt
phn ca vin tr c bit ca OECF cho vic xy
dng d n pht trin nng nghip cc nng trng
quc doanh tnh Hc Long Giang Trung Quc.
Mt NGO a phng thc hin cc kho st c
bn cc khu vc t b trng dng cho d n cu a
nng Jamuna Bnglat. C rt nhiu th d trong
cc NGO quc t v a phng ng gp
nhng t vn gi tr cho kho st khu vc, cc nghin
cu trc thc hin, thm nh v thc hin d n
(OECF 1996,
tr. 60).
Ph s dng, t nh hu hiu v ti tr cho mt cu
Dch v ca chnh ph (c bit l nhng dch v s
dng vin tr) thng c cung cp khng mt tin cho
ngi s dng - chm sc y t, thu li, nc, dch v m
rng, cung cp trng hc, ng s v v.v.. Trong nhiu
trng hp phng php tip cn ny l l tng v mt x
hi nhng lm ny sinh ba vn trong hai vn l
nghim trng, cn mt vn hn. Vn t quan trng
nht l dch v min ph thng b s dng qu mc, gy
ch tc cho h thng - d l mng li ng b hay dch
v y t. Hai vn nghim trng hn c tnh cht th ch
v lin quan trc tip ti vin tr. Th nht, do dch v
khng to ra doanh thu, ngi cung cp l thuc vo ngn
qu kho bc. c bit l nhng nc ngho c cc cuc
khng hong ti chnh ti din thm nin, th l mt
iu kh chu; khng c g bo m l tin cn cho thuc
men v duy tu h thng thu li s c ngay khi cn. Th
hai, do ngun qu ly t kho bc, kh c th trao quyn
cho ngi hng li v mang n cho h thc lm ch l
iu cn thit cho s thnh cng ca d n vin tr. Ngi
s dng b tch ra khi qu trnh xc nh u tin, lp k
hoch v phn phi dch v.
Trong nhng nm gn y, cc nh ti tr ti tr cho
cc cch i mi tng tnh hu hiu ca dch v bng
cch thu ph i vi phn cht lng c ci thin - t
thu li ti gio dc, y t ti nng nghip. Y t l mt th
d hay. Cung cp dch v chm sc y t ph cp cc
nc ngho l mt mc tiu c cao. Nhng do khng
c ngn qu nn nhit huyt vi cng vic cng ngui
i v quan trng hn cc trm y t thng khng c kim
tim, dc phm v thuc ung. iu ny dn n vng
lun qun: bnh nhn bit cht lng ti ca trm y t nn
tm n dch v y t ch khc, dn n cc trm y t
c s dng khng ht cng sut v iu kh c th
chng minh c vic u t ngn sch ci tin cht
lng l cn thit (Filmer, Hammer v Pritchett 1998).
Nm 1988 Sng kin Bamako tm cch xoay chuyn
Trong nhng nm
gn y cc nh ti
tr ti tr cho cc
cch i mi tng
t nh hu hiu ca
dch v
ANH GIA VIN TR
108
vng lun qun ny bng cch a chi ph s dng vo
Camrun. Mt d n c C quan Pht trin quc t ca
M ti tr tin hnh mt nh gi c i chng s kt
hp gia thu ph s dng v s dng chng ci tin cht
lng bng cch to ra s cung cp dc phm ng tin
cy. Nghin cu ny pht hin ra rng khng ch nhiu
ngi ti trung tm y t hn m t l ngi ngho so vi
ngi giu i khm bnh cng tng ln (Litvack v Bodart
1993). Th nghim tng t c kt qu tng t cc lnh
vc khc, v d nh trong gio dc (Birdsall v Orivel
1996). Cc th d kiu ny ch ra rng cc nh ti tr ng
vai tr quan trng trong vic cung cp ti chnh v nh gi
cc sng kin trong phn phi dch v.
Lm cho vin tr c tc ng gip dch v cng cng tt hn
S dch chuyn ca cc t tng pht trin t chin lc
tch t t bn theo nh hng ca chnh ph sang tp trung
vo cc nn tng kinh t, tnh hu hiu v hiu qu ca hot
ng cng cng ct yu i hi phi c mt s chuyn hng
cc cng c vin tr. C th, iu ny c ngha l phi xem
xt li phng php vin tr ti chnh (d n hoc chng
trnh) v phi ti chnh (tr gip k thut, phn tch chnh sch
v o to) v xem xt li cch thc chng c iu chnh
ph hp h tr chin lc pht trin mi.
S thay i t tng
pht trin i hi
phi c mt s
chuyn hng cc
cng c vin tr.
Cung cp ti ch nh thng qua d n
Chng ta vn cha bn bc v mt ch chnh cho vic
phn tch tnh hu hiu ca d n: cc chi tit mang tnh
hnh chnh v k thut lm cho d n c kt qu hn. S
d nh vy l do hai l do. Th nht, v cng l quan trng
nht, lnh vc ny c cp trong rt nhiu nh gi,
xem xt kinh nghim v nghin cu trc y v vic b
sung thm ca chng ti s chng c my gi tr. Rt nhiu
c quan ti tr tin hnh nh gi li kt qu thc hin ca
cc d n hon chnh. S kt hp kinh nghim ca cc d n
n l v so snh cho gia cc nc cho php cc nh gi
ny c th xut c cc kin ngh ph phn c tnh xy
dng xut pht t cc bi hc kinh nghim thu c ci
tin hot ng ca t chc. Hn na, mt s b phn nh
gi v k thut ca cc c quan ti tr tin hnh c cc
bo co nh gi cho cc ngnh c th v c cc vn m
ngnh phi i ph ln cc phng n c nhiu trin
vng cho cc ngnh
1
. Ti liu phong ph v kt qu d n v
cc ngnh cung cp nhng ngun ti sn thng tin cn
ANH GIA VIN TR
109
thit thc hin thnh cng d n.
L do th hai chng ta khng i su hn vo ch
d n vin tr hu hiu l chng ta quan tm nhiu hn ti
tc ng gin tip hn l tc ng trc tip ca d n. Cc
d n vin tr c tc ng lan truyn t cc d n n l
sang vn hnh chung ca h thng nh nc.
Gn nh ngay t lc u, ngi ta cho rng cc d
n ti tr bng vin tr nc ngoi c tc ng gin tip
quan trng. Hirschmann (1967) lp lun rng li ch gin
tip ln nht l vic cc c nhn v t chc c th hc hi
t cc khi nim, cng tc hoch nh v thc hin d n.
ng tin rng d n l cc yu t u tin ca pht trin c
th to ra s cch tn trn c s gii quyt cc vn pht
sinh. Nhng li ch ny nhn mnh vo cc gi tr gia tng
ca vic cc nh ti tr tham gia vo d n. iu ny cho
php c mt "c s h tng" thun li cho h tr k thut
v th ch thc hin d n, m nu khng c s tham
gia ca cc nh ti tr th c th khng xut hin.
Cc d n pht trin c th l cc c s th nghim cho
cc tng hay khi nim mi i vi mt nc, trnh din
cho chnh ph v cng dn ca nc nhng vic c
(hoc khng c) tc dng - thu khon dch v cng cng,
s dng cc NGO, vn ng cc nhm s dng tham gia vo
qun l, v.v.. Gi tr gia tng ca cc nh ti tr xut hin
hai kha cnh. Mt l kh nng s dng ngun lc nh
gi thn trng cc kinh nghim. Kin thc dng ny l hng
ho cng cng quc t, v khng chnh ph no c ng c
mnh tin hnh nh gi v ph bin chng. D n ti
tr cng c th gip ph v nhng quan im tri buc khu
vc cng cng vo nhng c ch khng hiu qu. Chnh ph
d c t tng i mi cng thy kh thc hin cc tng
mi - nht l khi cc tng thch thc cc quyn li bm
r v c bit l nu khng c mt bo m no l chng s
c tc dng. Vn chng s c tc dng ch c th c
chng minh bng cch thc hin chng. Cc nh ti tr c
th ph v ci vng lun qun ny bng cch h tr thc hin
nhng d n nh vy. Trong mt cuc hp mt lin ngnh
gia cc quan chc Gmbia v Ngn hng Th gii ci
tin quan h lm vic, ngi Gmbia nhn mnh "tm
quan trng ca Ngn hng trong vic p dng nhng tng
v kinh nghim ca cc nc khc vo nguyn tc chc chn
nht trong quan h hp tc. Cung cp ti chnh l quan trng,
nhng quan trng hn l n mang li kh nng lm mt ci
g - thay i xa hn nhng li ni ca ming" (Marshall
1997, tr. 26).
Nhng li ch ph thuc vo s thc hin d n theo
Cc d n pht trin
c th l cc c s
th nghim cho cc
tng hay khi
nim mi i vi mt
nc.
ANH GIA VIN TR
110
cch thc khc nhau v vic nh gi s khc nhau ca
d n. Mt iu khng may l c hai yu cu ny kh c
th c p ng do cc d n vin tr thng khng c c
ch c th nh gi mt cch mnh m kt qu- hay ni
ng hn l cho n nay th cha a ra c.
Cc d n cng to iu kin c th tham gia vo
cc cuc i thoi trong tng lnh vc ca nn kinh t vi
chnh ph. Nhiu d n thc hin tht bi c lin quan ti
chnh sch ca chnh ph i vi tng lnh vc, m thng
thng cc chnh sch ny hay xung t v c mc tiu
khng ph hp vi mc tiu d n. V d, cc d n vn
ti, thu li v khuyn nng nhm khuyn khch nng dn
sn xut mt sn phm no c th b ln t do cc chnh
sch kinh t v m v vi m lm thu nng nghip qu cao.
Cc d n u t vo ng s, thu li v c s h tng
cc nc khc c bo tr mt cch yu km (hoc
chng bo tr g c) bi v cc c quan cng cng khng c
kh nng thu hi chi ph v i vn. Thay i cc chnh
sch chung c c t cc cuc i thoi vi chnh ph s
ci thin kh nng bn vng ca cc d n c ti tr v
ci thin trin vng ca tt c cc d n trong lnh vc lin
quan. Tc ng ny c th l gi tr gia tng quan trng
nh c s tham gia ca cc nh ti tr vo d n.
C mt v d v vic ti nh c kh khn do lin quan
ti chuyn trng dng t ai ca cc d n u t cng
cng (xem Khung 4.3). Do d n c c tc ng trc tip
(xy mt con ng mi ni lin cc cng ng, chuyn
ch ngi v hng ho) v tc ng lan truyn (ci tin th
ch v chnh sch ngnh), c hai cn phi c nh gi.
Khung 4.3 Ti nh c trong pht trin
Mt bo co nh gi ton din ca Ngn
hng Th gii v kinh nghim thc hin chnh sch
ti nh c ca cc d n ca Ngn hng kt lun
rng:
"L mt c quan pht trin u tin thc hin
chnh sch ti nh c, Ngn hng thc y
chnh sch ny vi cc nc i vay c cc d n
lin quan ti ti nh c t nguyn. Mt kt qu
ch yu ca tc ng xc tc ca Ngn hng trong
khong thi gian t 1986 ti 1993 l c rt nhiu
nc i vay ban hnh v ci tin cc chnh sch
i ni v khung php l cho hot ng ti nh
c.
Ti nh c c tc dng khi chnh ph mun
nh vy. Cch thc tt nht chnh ph th hin
cam kt ca mnh c c s ti nh c lnh
mnh l to ra nng lc th ch y , ngha l
hp lc gia chnh sch, t chc v ngun lc. Khi
nc i vay khng thc s theo chnh sch ti nh
c ca Ngn hng ngay t bui u, vic ti nh
c thng khng c thc hin tt - nu khng
tnh n cc phi on ca Ngn hng v tn sut
Ngn hng e do ngng gii ngn.
Ngn hng s c tc ng ln hn nhiu v
cc hot ng trc tip s c li hn, khi tho
thun vi nc vay n v khung chnh sch ngnh
v chnh sch i ni ph hp vi hot ng h tr
ca Ngn hng, hn l gii hn n lc ca Ngn
hng trong phm vi tho thun php l vi tng d
n ring l. Ngc li, cc ngha v a ra cho
tng tho thun vay n v "chnh sch d n" c
tho thun i khi l c s bn bc v ci thin
khung lut php v chnh sch trong nc" (Ngn
hng Th gii 1996a, tr. 8).
ANH GIA VIN TR
111
Cung cp ti ch nh phi d n
Hnh thc vin tr t rng buc vi vic thc hin mt d
n c th - v d nh cc vin tr theo chng trnh, cung cp
ti chnh u t cho cc ngnh, cc chng trnh iu chnh
c cu ngnh, hoc cc cng c cung cp ti chnh theo thi
gian - c nhng u nhc im nht nh so vi cc cung cp
ti chnh theo d n.
Vi cc nc m vic phn b ti chnh lnh mnh v chi
tiu c kh nng mang li hiu qu cao th gi tr gia tng ca
cc nh ti tr khi tham gia vo cng tc thit k v thc hin
d n l rt nh. Ti tr phi d n tit kim chi ph thc hin
v chi ph chun b d n, c i vi cc nh ti tr v nc
nhn vin tr. Mt ngun lc khan him ca cc nh ti tr l
nhn vin c k nng k thut v kinh nghim ca hng lot
cc nc. Do cng tc chun b d n s dng nhiu nhn
vin nn vic s dng d n di dng h tr cc nc c
c ch qun l tt khng phi bao gi cng to iu kin s
dng c nhn vin nhng ni m k nng ca h c
cn n nht v c s dng tt nht. Cc k nng khan
him c th c s dng u mt cch hiu sut hn.
i vi cc nc nhn vin tr, vin tr phi d n gip
cho vic iu phi ca cc nh ti tr. Vic sp t hnh
chnh cn thit kim sot d n, c khi l hng trm d n
ti tr mt lc, l iu phin toi cho chnh ph c nng lc
qun l khu vc cng cng hn ch. Thng thng mi nh
ti tr v mi d n c nhng yu cu ring i vi th tc
tin hnh, lp k hoch, bo co v mua sm.
Bn thn vic cung cp ti chnh cho d n cng c
nhng lch lc nht nh i vi c ch khuyn khch ca cc
c quan vin tr: u tin u t hn l chi tiu thng xuyn,
u tin d n ln hn l d n nh, tng sn lng hn l
nng cao hiu qu, nguyn vt liu nhp khu hn l ni a.
Cc nc nhn vin tr thng coi trch nhim xy dng v
trin khai cc d n l ca cc c quan vin tr khin ngi
trong nc thy mnh khng phi l ch.
Vic s dng h tr ngn sch chung lm mt mi lin h
gia d n v thc hin d n vi nhng mc tiu vin tr
tng th - l, quy m ca d n thng c iu chnh
t cc mc tiu ca tng vin tr c gii ngn ch khng
phi ti a ho gi tr gia tng ca cc d n. i khi quy m
ca d n c ra khc vi d kin ban u.
Tuy nhin, tt c cc nghin cu ny c p dng ch
yu cho mt s t cc nc may mn v mt s lnh vc m
cung ng dch v cng cng hu hiu v c th c hiu
Bn thn vic cung
cp ti ch nh d n
cng mang li nhng
lch lc nht nh
i vi c ch
khuyn kh ch ca
cc c quan vin tr:
u tin u t hn l
chi tiu thng
xuyn, u tin d n
ln hn l d n nh
ANH GIA VIN TR
112
qu. Nu mt trong nhng vn quan tm ca pht trin l
ci thin chnh sch v tng nng lc th ch ca chnh ph
(v cn phi l vn quan tm ca pht trin), vin tr
nc ngoi ch nhm m rng kh nng chi tiu ca ngn
sch cho cc hot ng ang c m khng thay i c cu
hay thay i c ch khuyn khch i vi cc hot ng phn
phi dch v th chc hn s khng mang li nhiu kt qu.
Vn t ra l: hnh thc h tr no s ci thin c khu
vc cng cng? i khi d n l cn thit nhng i khi li
phi cn cc cuc i thoi chnh sch - lin quan ti vin tr
theo chng trnh. V i khi khng vin tr ti chnh cht
no li l tt nht.
Mt nghin cu xut sc v vin tr chu Phi do Hi
ng pht trin hi ngoi ti tr da trn c s nghin cu
tnh hung phi hp by nc chu Phi, xut nh sau:
"[Vin tr theo chng trnh] chc chn s khng h tr
cho pht trin nu khng c chnh sch kinh t ng n.
Trong nhng trng hp , cc nh ti tr cn phi duy tr
mt cuc i thoi chnh tr vi chnh ph, nhng hn ch
lung vin tr v nh hng chng trc tip vo cc vin tr
theo d n, thng l tp trung vo khu vc ngoi quc doanh.
Sau khi cc chnh sch kinh t ng n c a ra, cc nh
ti tr cn phi m rng vin tr theo chng trnh, c th l
trong khung cnh cc chin lc u t theo lnh vc c
m phn vi chnh ph" (van de Walle v Johnston 1996, tr.
8).
iu tha nhn cc nhn t phc tp khi la chn
phng php v mc vin tr pht trin. Cc khon vin
tr c kt qu ph thuc khng ch vo cc dng v phng
php vin tr c la chn, m cn ph thuc chnh yu vo
cc chnh sch ca chnh ph, nng lc th ch v cam kt
ci tin dch v.
H tr phi ti ch nh
H tr phi ti chnh cng c th thu c kt qu cao,
tuy nhin thnh tch ca n cng pha trn. Nng lc th
ch yu km cc nc ang pht trin t lu c tha
nhn l ro cn ln i vi pht trin
2
. Mt gii php
truyn thng l s dng ba loi vin tr k thut: thu
chuyn gia nc ngoi ngn hoc di hn, o to quan
chc chnh ph (trong nc hoc nc ngoi), v cung
cp ti chnh cho cc chng trnh hc bng di hn. Trong
khi cc nh ti tr s dng rt nhiu chuyn gia nc
ngoi ci tin th ch ( c nhiu thnh cng) kt qu
tng quan tht ng tht vng (Ngn hng Th gii 1996b).
Mt x hi (hay c
quan ch nh ph)
nu t hnh thnh
c chng trnh
ci cch ca mnh th
d tip thu cc vin
tr k thut v xy
dng th ch.
ANH GIA VIN TR
113
Mt nh gi ca Chng trnh Pht trin Lin hp quc
nm 1993 ngh rng "c mt cm gic ngy cng gia
tng rng hp tc k thut khng pht huy hiu qu, rng
theo thc t hin nay th hp tc k thut hot ng khng
c kt qu v rng nhng li ch m n em li rt tn km
v trong tt c cc trng hp n c rt t tc ng lu di"
(Berg 1993, tr. 3-4).
Mt x hi (hay c quan chnh ph) nu t hnh thnh
c chng trnh ci cch ca mnh th d tip thu cc
vin tr k thut v xy dng th ch. Khi khng c nh
hng bi nhu cu trong nc i vi mt t vn chuyn
mn c th no , cc chuyn gia nc ngoi thng
khng phi hp c vi cc b kin thc c th c
chuyn giao. H tr k thut ca cc nh t vn quc t v
cc chuyn gia k thut c lp phc v c mt vi
mc ch, nhng vi t cch l mt phng thc thc
y v ci tin khu vc cng cng th chng thng l
nhng tht bi t gi.
o to k nng k thut cho cc quan chc chnh ph
cng c nhng kt qu thnh cng v tht bi. nhiu
nc, o to khng thnh cng v cc quan chc chnh
ph khng c ng c cn thit th hin, b ngn cn
v mt chnh tr nn khng th th hin c, hoc khng
c c s vt cht v ngun lc thc hin. rt nhiu
nc, khng c cch no y nhanh qu trnh chm
chp lin quan ti khng ch nng lc phn tch v i
thoi chnh sch (c trong chnh ph v trong x hi dn
s) m cn lin quan ti yu cu ca nc nhn vin tr
i vi vin tr k thut hu ch. Tc ng ca cc t
tng rt kh c th kim sot, nh gi v c bit l
lng ho bi v cch thc phn tch chnh sch gp ch
cho vic thc hin d n tng lai thng l v hnh v
gin tip.
Mt nghin cu tin hnh phn tch kinh nghim ca
cc d n ca Ngn hng Th gii (hu ht c thng qua
trong nhng nm 1980) iu tra s ng gp tng i
ca hai ngun nhn vin u vo (Deininger, Squire v Basu
1998). Mt l ngun nhn vin lin quan trc tip ti d n -
chun b trc khi d n bt u v gim st khi d n c
thc hin v ti chnh c gii ngn. Ngun th hai l "lao
ng cho cc ngnh v c nn kinh t", ni chun b cc bo
co v nn kinh t v cc ngnh c th gip cho chnh ph,
ng thi m nhim cc cuc i thoi vi chnh ph v
cc c quan pht trin khc.
Nghin cu pht hin ra rng (ngay c sau khi tnh
n cc yu t lin quan ti cc iu kin kinh t, ngnh v
Cng tc phn t ch
ANH GIA VIN TR
114
quc gia v c cc yu t lin quan n vic chun b v
gim st ca nhn vin i vi mt d n c th) cc cng
tc phn tch trc khi thc hin d n nng cao cht lng
d n. Tnh trung bnh cc hot ng ny c kt qu cao,
do li ch ca mt tun lm vic tng thm ca cng tc
phn tch bi Ngn hng Th gii cao gp 9 ln chi ph -
bao gm c thi gian, i li v chi ph hnh chnh cho nhn
vin (hnh 4.3). Hn na, do cng tc phn tch nh hng
ti d n rt nhiu, li ch tng hp thm ch cn ln hn
th. V y mi ch tnh ti li ch mang li cho d n
c ti tr bi Ngn hng. Nu nhng thay i nh c
phn tch chnh sch nh hng ti d n c ti tr, hay
c th ngay c cc d n ca chnh ph, li sut ca vic
tham gia vo cc hot ng ngoi vay vn c th rt ln.
Tuy cng tc phn tch c li sut cao, cc tc gi li
pht hin ra rng Ngn hng Th gii u t qu t vo
vic thc hin cng tc v u t qu nhiu vo cc
ngun lc s dng bo m mt dng d n n nh
chy ti Ban iu hnh (Ph lc 5). Theo c lng ca h,
mt s dch chuyn ngun lc t vic chun b d n cho
cng tc phn tch c th lm gim vn cam kt nhng
tng t l d n thnh cng. Ni cch khc, c th t d n
hn s c thng qua, nhng chng s c thit k v
thc hin tt hn. Nghch l l vic dch chuyn ngun lc
t vic chun b d n cho cng tc phn tch s y nhanh
tc gii ngn cc ngun qu. L do l cc d n c vn
thng c thc hin mt cch chm chp v v th
gii ngn rt chm.
c th em li mi li
khng l
Hnh 4.3. Chi ph v li
ch khi thm mt tun
cng cho cng tc phn
t ch
Nghn la
Chi ph
bnh qun
Li ch
Ngun: Deininger, Squire v
Basu 1998.
Cc phng php vin tr v hiu qu khu vc cng cng
Nu c qun l hon ho, vin tr c th khuyn
khch khu vc cng cng thng qua cc hot ng d n v
phi d n (v thng l thng qua s kt hp ca c hai).
C hai c th em li nhng kin thc m cc nc cn.
Cc d n h tr vic th nghim v ci cch, trnh din,
th im, nh gi v cch tn. Cng c rt nhiu cch
cc nh ti tr c th gip cc nc thng qua cc hot
ng phi d n, nh l to ra v ph bin cc bi hc kinh
nghim. Bi cc c quan vin tr tin hnh nhiu d n
nhiu nc khc nhau vi cc cu trc th ch khc nhau
v c nng lc nh gi cc d n, h c th c nhiu
dn chng v bi hc so snh m mt nc n l khng
th rt ra c. Phn tch chnh sch v chia s kinh
Nu c qun l
hon ho, vin tr c
th khuyn kh ch
khu vc cng cng
thng qua cc hot
ng d n v phi d
n
ANH GIA VIN TR
115
nghim ca chuyn gia l nhng cng vic hu ch. o
to - gip cn b trong nc nhng nng lc cn thit
hon thnh nhim v, cung cp kinh nghim hay trang b
k nng mi cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch - u c
vai tr cc k quan trng.
1
Thm ch ch mt phn ti liu ca Ngn hng Th gii cng th hin iu ny. T V nh gi hot
ng c nhng kim im v thu li, khuyn nng v vay iu chnh c cu v nhiu lnh vc khc.
Cc bo co chnh sch ngnh xem xt li kinh nghim ca Ngn hng Th gii trong cc ngnh nh
nng lng, nc, gio dc v vay iu chnh c cu.
2
Krueger, Michalopoulos v Ruttan (1989) nu rng trong nhng nm 1950, C quan Pht trin quc t
ca M l ni din ra nhng cuc tranh lun ny la gia trng phi vin tr u t v vin tr k thut.
ANH GIA VIN TR
114
Chng 5
Tin, nhng cng cn nhiu tng hn
i vi cc nc ang pht trin, vn qun l kinh t
quan trng hn so vi vn vin tr ti chnh nc ngoi.
Chnh cc thiu ht v chnh sch, v th ch gy ra
hin tng tt hu ca cc nn kinh t ch khng phi l
cc thiu ht ti chnh. S tin vin tr ch c tc dng ln
sau khi cc nc t c nhng tin b ln trong qu
trnh ci cch chnh sch v th ch. Tuy vy, iu ny
khng nn b xuyn tc vi ngha rng cc nc c cc
th ch v chnh sch km (gi l cc mi trng kh
khn, yu hay c vn ) th khng th gip c. Ngc
li, cc nc ny hon ton c th gip c. C th lm
rt nhiu iu em li li ch cho cc nc ny.
Nhng trc ht chng ta bit nhng g "khng c kh
nng" thc hin da trn kinh nghim:
Cc khon tin ln. Vic cung cp cc khon ti chnh
ln khng gii quyt c nhiu tnh trng ngho
kh cc nc qun l km.
Vic i mua ci cch. Nu cc nc khng c s vn
ng trong nc theo nh hng ci cch th tn dng
c iu kin cng khng to ra c ci cch.
Vic tp trung vo cc d n c th. Trong cc mi
trng kh khn, cc nh ti tr thng da vo mt
chng trnh cc d n nh, hu ht l thuc lnh vc
x hi. Nhng thnh cng ca cc d n c th ny
(thng rt kh t c) khng c tc dng ln tr khi
n khuyn khch "thay i c tnh cht h thng". Mt
khc, do tnh bt phn nh ca ng tin, nn ton b
khu vc nh nc (vi chnh sch b bp mo) c
nhn ti tr ch khng ch nhng ngnh c u tin.
Cng ng quc t khng nn ch dng cc d n, cn
khuyn khch thay i c tnh cht h thng cc ngnh
v cc nc. Trong ba thp nin qua, khng c mt tc
ng tch cc no din ra Mianma nay Nigiria. Hin
nhin, khng c mt phng thuc bch bnh cho tnh
trng m yu ca cc nc ny. Tuy vy, cng c nhng v
d v s thnh cng ca vin tr, l vin tr ci thin
i sng nhn dn cc nc c s qun l km v cc
chnh sch ti. Trong mt s trng hp, vin tr gp
phn to ra nhng thay i ln hn v to ra mt s khc
Cng ng quc t
khng nn ch dng
cc d n, cn khuyn
kh ch thay i c
t nh cht h thng
cc ngnh v cc
nc.
ANH GIA VIN TR
115
bit to ln.
Sau y, chng ti gii thiu bn nghin cu v hiu
qu vin tr trong cc iu kin kh khn. Cc nghin cu
ny c bn ch im sau:
Tm mt nh v ch. Cc nc, cc chnh ph v cc
cng ng u c thnh phn cu to khc nhau. Trong
khi vic coi ton b Mianma l nc "qun l km" l
ph hp, th vn c th c cc yu t "c u c ci
cch" trong cng ng ny v thm ch trong Chnh
ph Mianma. Nu c th tm ra v h tr nhng nh ci
cch ny, th vin tr c th c tc dng cao.
C mt tm nhn di hn v thay i c tnh cht h
thng. Cc nh ci cch thnh cng c mt tm nhn v
nhng thay i, v d sau 10 nm - s thay i c v
mt kt qu (tng s tr em n trng, tt nghip v
c vic lm) v v mt qu trnh (s tham gia ca cng
ng vo gio dc, s ng h mnh m ca cng chng
i vi cc chnh sch ci cch).
H tr s hnh thnh kin thc. Khi cc nh ci cch
c mt tm nhn lu di h thng xy dng cc chi tit
ci cch thng qua s ci tin v nh gi. Hn na,
ci cch c cm r chc chn i hi phi c s chng
minh rng ci cch s thnh cng. Ti tr v nh gi
cc sng kin l mt vai tr then cht ca vin tr.
Huy ng x hi dn s. Trong cc mi trng b bp
mo nghim trng, chnh ph khng th a ra cc
chnh sch h tr v khng th cung cp cc dch v c
hiu qu. y l l do ti sao cc khon vin tr ti
chnh gia cc chnh ph to ra cc kt qu ti. Trong
nhng mi trng ny, vin tr hiu qu thng lin
quan ti vic gip x hi dn s gy sc p chnh
ph phi i mi vic cung ng dch v hoc giao bt
cng tc cung cp dch v cho x hi dn s (hoc kt
hp c hai).
Nhng im nu trn lin quan ti cc c trng ca cc
mi trng ha hn cho s thay i v cc cch thc cc
nh ti tr c th pht trin nhng c trng ny. Nhng bi
hc t thnh cng ca vin tr cng l nhng ch dn v hnh
vi ca nh ti tr. Vin tr s c hiu qu hn khi:
Trong cc mi trng
kh khn, vin tr c
hiu qu l thng qua
cc tng nhiu hn
bng tin hoc cc d
n.
Cc t chc tp trung vo ci cch di hn. Vin tr
thnh cng trong cc mi trng kh khn in hnh
lin quan ti u vo i ng cc nhn vin chuyn
trch v mt s tin gii ngn nh. Vin tr thnh cng
cng hot ng "bn ngoi cc d n" h tr ci
Cc nc qun l tt
iu phi cc nh ti tr,
nhng cc nc qun
l ti cc nh ti tr
mnh ai ny lm
ANH GIA VIN TR
116
cch h thng.
Cc nh ti tr l i tc, ch khng phi l i th
cnh tranh ca nhau. Cc nghin cu v vin tr t lu
ch ra s sinh si ny n ca cc nh ti tr v vic
thiu phi hp gia cc nh ti tr. Cc nc qun l tt
iu phi cc nh ti tr, nhng cc nc qun l
ti cc nh ti tr mnh ai ny lm. Kh c th l gii
hin tng ny, ngoi tr l do l cc nh ti tr thch
"cm c ca h" vo mt ci g hu hnh (bt c th
g). Trong nhng trng hp vin tr thnh cng, c xu
hng xut hin s phi hp cht ch gia cc nh ti tr
ch trng vo nhng thay i ln hn, ch khng phi
vo tng mu c sc o ring ca mnh.
Vit Nam: iu chnh khng cn t n dng
Kh c th tng tng ra mt mi trng kh khn
cho vin tr pht trin hn l Vit Nam vo gia nhng
nm 1980. L mt trong s nhng nc ngho ca th gii,
Vit Nam phi ku gi vin tr lng thc quc t vo
mt s thi im ca thp nin . Mc d c vin tr
ca Lin X (khong 10% GNP mi nm) nhng thc t
vn khng c mt s pht trin no din ra (trong vic xa
i gim ngho hay vic ci thin cc ch tiu x hi).
Qun l kinh t yu km, ch thng mi ng ca;
trong nn kinh t khng c ch cho khu vc t nhn; thm
ht ngn sch trm trng c b p bng vic in tin,
dn n siu lm pht.
Vit Nam trong thi k 1985-1986 l mt v d tt v
vic ti sao mt khon vin tr ti chnh li khng c mt
tc ng no trong mt mi trng c chnh sch v th
ch b bp mo. X hi, chnh ph v ng cng sn lnh
o u khng chp nhn nhng kt qu ti t ny. Trong
mt i hi c tnh lch s nm 1986, ng cng sn
quyt nh thay i nh hng v bt u i mi. Mt
trong nhng nh ci cch hng u l ng V Vn Kit,
Ph th tng ph trch kinh t. ng lc thc y s thay
i ny khng ch l thc t ngho kh ca Vit Nam, m
cn l thnh cng ca cc nn kinh t lng ging ang thc
hin m ca hn na i vi thng mi v u t nc
ngoi. Mc d i ng cc nh kinh t Vit Nam c mt
nh hng chung cho chnh sch kinh t - ni lng cho
khu vc t nhn v m ca rng hn - nhng h vn cha
c mt chng trnh ci cch chi tit (Ljunggren 1993).
ANH GIA VIN TR
117
Cui nhng nm 1980 vin tr ca Lin X gim t
ngt, ngun vin tr cho Vit Nam ch cn gii hn l do
UNDP v Thu in (SIDA) cp vi gi tr cha y 1%
GDP. Trong khi ang phi vt ln vi cc vn v iu
chnh c cu, Vit Nam vn khng nhn c s h tr v
ti chnh ca Qu Tin t quc t hay ca Ngn hng Th
gii do cn s bt ha v chnh tr gia Vit Nam vi cc c
ng chnh ca cc t chc ny. Tuy nhin, hai t chc ny
ng gp bng thi gian lm vic ca cc nhn vin t
vn cho chnh ph. Hn na, UNDP v SIDA mi Ngn
hng Th gii v Qu Tin t quc t qun l mt s d n
h tr k thut do h ti tr. Do vy Qu Tin t quc t
qun l d n h tr k thut cho Ngn hng nh nc do
UNDP ti tr v ng gp thi gian hot ng ca cc
nhn vin ca h. ng thi, Ngn hng Th gii cng
qun l d n h tr k thut cho U ban k hoch nh nc
(nay l B K hoch v u t) do UNDP ti tr.
Trong nhng giai on u ci cch, s hp tc gia
cc t chc ny to ra nhng u vo quan trng. Trong
nm 1991, Ngn hng Th gii v UNDP t chc mt
cuc hp ti Kuala Lmp, ti y ng V Vn Kit v
phi on Vit Nam gp g cc b trng kinh t cc
nc Innsia, Hn Quc v Malaixia. Mi nc u
nu ra mt s chnh sch em li hiu qu cho h v
on Vit Nam a ra nhng cu hi chi tit v n nh
ha, t do ha thng mi, u t nc ngoi v cc chnh
sch kinh t khc. V mc k thut su hn, cc t chc
ti tr ny t chc cc kha o to, hi tho v chnh
sch, cc chuyn kho st nghin cu nc ngoi cho cc
nhn vin ca cc b thuc khi kinh t ca Vit Nam.
Tt c nhng vic lm ny nhm gip Vit Nam hc
hi kinh nghim ca cc nc lng ging v to ra nhng
kin thc cn thit Vit Nam qun l kinh t thnh
cng. Vic nng cao kin thc cng c s h tr
cp vi m hn. UNDP, SIDA v Ngn hng Th gii
phi hp gip chnh ph thc hin cuc iu tra h gia
nh u tin Vit Nam, thu nhp nhiu thng tin v sn
xut h gia nh, mc thu nhp v tnh trng ngho kh,
gio dc, sc khe v dinh dng tr em. Tin hnh vo
nm 1992-1993, cuc iu tra ny cho thy rng 55%
s dn Vit Nam ang sng di mc ngho kh
1
m th
gii vn p dng (Dollar v cc tc gi khc 1998)
*
.
Ci cch ca Vit Nam
to iu kin cho
x hi dn s pht
trin v hot ng ca
cc nh ti tr
khuyn kh ch vic
ny
*
1. S liu ny khc vi s liu thng k ca Vit Nam (B.T).
ANH GIA VIN TR
118
Ci cch ca Vit Nam m ra nhiu iu kin cho
x hi dn s v hot ng ca cc nh ti tr khuyn
khch vic ny. Hai v d: cc t chc Asian Foundation v
Ngn hng Th gii t chc cuc hp u tin gia khu
vc t nhn Vit Nam vi cc quan chc lnh o tho
lun v cc chnh sch kinh t v mt s tr ngi i vi
khu vc t nhn. Mt nhm cc nh ti tr t chc cc
hi tho v nng thn tho lun v tnh trng ngho kh
pht sinh t iu tra h gia nh v cc cch thc cc
nh ti tr c th h tr cc a phng thc hin xa i
gim ngho.
Ngi ta khng th xc nh chnh xc tc ng ca
nhng hot ng ny ca cc nh ti tr. Nhng r rng
c mt s ci thin rt ln v chnh sch kinh t Vit
Nam v s ci thin ny lm cho i sng mi ngi tt
hn. Cc chnh sch ca Vit Nam c ci thin t mc
thc s khng khip vo gia nhng nm 1980 ln mc
tng i tt vo nm 1990 (hnh 5.1). (S ci thin gm
tng quyn s hu i vi t nng nghip v bc u n
nh, lm pht t 400% xung cn khong 70%). Vo u
nhng nm 1990 c nhng ci thin hn na v mt
chnh sch, v d nh kim sot c lm pht, t do ha
thng mi v to ra mt mi trng php l r rng cho
khu vc t nhn.
Hnh 5.1. Vit Nam: Vin tr v ch nh sch
Ch s ch nh sch Vin tr/GDP (%)
Chnh sch
Vin tr
T
t
T
i
B
n
h

t
h
n
g
Vin tr Vit Nam
tp trung ch yu vo
t vn v ch nh sch
v s h tr k thut
trong qu trnh iu
chnh v ci cch. H
tr ti ch nh quy m
ln ch ti sau khi c
mt mi trng ch nh
sch tt.
Lu rng trong thi k 1989-1993 Vit Nam ch nhn
lng vin tr nh (khong 1% GDP). Trc 1994-1995
khng h c cc khon vin tr ti chnh quy m ln, vo
thi k 1995 mi trng v chnh sch v th ch c nh
ANH GIA VIN TR
119
gi l kh i vi mt nc thu nhp thp nh Vit Nam.
Vit Nam l mt v d in hnh v thay i c tnh
cht h thng, vo gia nhng nm 1980 cc h gia nh b
hn ch i vi nhng cng vic h c th lm vi t ai
v lao ng. Ti gia nhng nm 1990, cc h gia nh
c t do lao ng trn rung t ca h, h gia nh
c coi l n v kinh t c th thu lao ng. Cc sng
kin em li kt qu cc a phng c "nhn rng"
trn quy m c nc. Mi trng chnh sch tt hn dn
ti nhu cu u t b sung cho vic xy dng ng s,
cung cp nng lng, gio dc v cc khu vc khc.
Vi nhng ci cch chnh sch ln, tc tng trng
tng nhanh hn. Trong s 40 nc ngho nht trn th
gii nm 1986, Vit Nam t c tc tng trng
cao nht trong thp nin 1990. Li ch do tng trng em
li c phn b rng ri. Mt nghin cu thc hin
nm 1998 v cc h gia nh c nghin cu nm
1992-1993 ch ra rng thu nhp bnh qun thc t ca
cc h gia nh ny tng ln 39% v t l h ngho
gim gn mt na - t 55% xung cn 30% trn tng s h
nghin cu.
Nhng bi hc t vin tr nc ngoi l g? Cc nh ti
tr gip mt nh ci cch xy dng cc chnh sch cho
Vit Nam v cho thy chng c th pht huy hiu qu. Cc
mc tiu r rng ca cc nh lnh o Vit Nam gp
phn iu phi cc nh ti tr vi nhau.
R rng trng tm vin tr trong thi k 1989-1992 l
cc tng, ch khng phi l tin. V cc l do chnh tr
quc t, cc nh ti tr ln nh Ngn hng Th gii khng
th cung cp tin cho Vit Nam cho n tn nm 1993, do
vy h phi lm nhng vic khc c ch cho Vit Nam.
Vic ng gp cng sc nhn vin ca cc t chc ny i
hi lng chi ph nh nhng ng gp ln cho qu trnh
ci cch v pht trin ca Vit Nam.
Trong nhng nm gn
y cc nc ang
pht trin th
nghim vic phn
quyn trong gio dc
Phn quyn v ci cch gio dc En Xanvao, Pakixtan
v Braxin
Chnh ph cc nc ang pht trin thng gp mt
vai tr quan trng trong vic phn b v qun l cc ngun
lc gio dc. Ngay c khi cc tnh, thnh ph c trao cho
thm quyn, th c nhn cc nh qun l trng hc v cc
ph huynh hc sinh vn ch c mt ting ni rt hn ch.
ANH GIA VIN TR
120
Gii php tp quyn ny em li nhiu thnh tu trong
gio dc, nhng chng thng khng quan tm ti cc
nhm ngi do yu t lch s c trnh gio dc thp (v
d, nhng ngi ngho v cc b gi). V s tp quyn qu
mc chn p s sng to ca cc c nhn c vai tr
quyt nh i vi cc sn phm ca trng hc - gio
vin, hiu trng v cc bc ph huynh hc sinh.
Trong nhng nm gn y, cc nc ang pht trin
th nghim vic phn quyn trong gio dc theo hai cch
sau: Th nht, cho php cc a phng c quyn t ch
cao hn v tng u vo cho cc trng cng lp, th hai,
to ra cc iu kin thun li cho khu vc phi chnh ph
pht trin. Trong mt vi trng hp cc nh ti tr ti
tr v thit k m hnh cho nhng sng kin ny. iu
quan trng hn c l h tr cho cc n lc ca chnh
ph trong vic nh gi nhng sng kin ny mt cch
nghim tc, theo di cc nhm th nghim v so snh cc
nhm ny vi cc nhm i chng bn ngoi. i vi ci
cch cc nc nh En Xanvao, Pakixtan v Braxin, hin
nay c nhng bng chng chc chn rng nhng ci
cch ny em li kt qu tt.
Chng trnh trng hc do cng ng qun l ca En
Xanvao - thng c bit n di tn vit tt l EDUCO
(Education con Participation de la Comunidad) l mt n
lc ci cch tin hnh phn quyn trong gio dc i vi c
hai cp tin tiu hc v tiu hc, thng qua vic tng cng
mi quan h v s tham gia trc tip ca cc ph huynh hc
sinh v cc nhm cng ng. Mt m hnh th nghim v
cc trng hc EDUCO ngy nay c xy dng trong
nhng nm 1980, khi m cc trng cng lp khng th
vn ti cc vng nng thn v l do ni chin. Mt s cng
ng chp nhn sng kin t chc cc trng hc ring
cho cng ng, h qun l cc trng hc ny vi s h tr
ti chnh ca cc hi gia nh. Mc d nhng n lc ban u
ny b hn ch bi c s thu nhp nng thn thp, nhng
chng cng th hin nhu cu v gio dc, cng nh mt
mong mun tham gia qun l cc trng hc. Nm 1991, B
Gio dc, di s h tr ca cc t chc ti tr nh Ngn
hng Th gii, quyt nh s dng m hnh th nghim
ny lm phng php chnh m rng gio dc cc vng
nng thn, thng qua chng trnh EDUCO.
Ngy nay, cc trng hc EDUCO do Hip hi gio
dc cng ng (ACE) ng ra qun l, hip hi ny do cc
ph huynh hc sinh bu ra. Cc hip hi ACE ng vai tr
trung tm trong vic qun l v gim st, h tham gia cc
ANH GIA VIN TR
121
hp ng vi B Gio dc, theo h phi o to mt s
mn nht nh cho mt s lng hc sinh nht nh theo
hp ng. Hip hi (ACE) s chu trch nhim thu v thay
i gio vin qua vic gim st cht ch cht lng ca
gio vin. Hip hi cn chu trch nhim v trang thit b
v duy tr cc trng hc. S phi hp gia B Gio dc v
cc hip hi ACE nhm ci thin vic qun l cc trng
hc qua vic p ng nhu cu ca a phng.
Chng trnh EDUCO l mt phng php m rng
gio dc ra cc vng nng thn ho lnh mt cch nhanh
chng. Nhng liu phng php ny c lm xu i cht
lng o to khng? Khng. Cc trng hc cng ng
qun l khng h c cht lng o to km. Nhng thnh
tu m sinh vin t c trong cc k thi ton v ngn
ng tng ng vi thnh tu ca cc trng hc truyn
thng. Trn thc t, cc trng hc EDUCO c th c cht
lng cao nht. cc trng ny hc sinh khng b mt
gi ln lp do thiu gio vin nh cc trng khc
(Jimenez v Sawada 1998). Da trn thnh cng ny, hin
nay chnh ph ang lp k hoch p dng m hnh qun
l cng ng vo tt c cc trng hc truyn thng.
Pakixtan, tr em gi t c n trng ang l mt
vn tn ti lu. Thi k 1994-1995, chnh quyn tnh
Balochistan bt u ng h cc trng cng ng (phi chnh
ph), vi trng tm l tng t l nhp hc ca tr em gi. Da
trn s tr em gi tuyn, nh nc tr cp cho cc trng
cng ng. Sau ba nm, theo d tnh, cc trng ny s c
th t hch ton thng qua thu ph v cc h tr t nhn.
Cc trng hc do
cng ng qun l ca
En Xanvao ra i vo
nhng nm 1980 khi
cc trng cng lp
khng th vn ti cc
vng nng thn v l
do ni chin
Mi vng ngho th u c mt trng t c
thnh lp theo mu chn ngu nhin cho chng trnh ny.
T l tuyn hc sinh n tng 25 im phn trm so vi t
l tuyn trong cc trng khng nm trong chng trnh
ny (hnh 5.2). Hn na, mc d chng trnh ny ch trc
tip tr cp cho vic tuyn hc sinh n, nhng n c
mt tc ng lan truyn ti t l nhp hc ca hc sinh
nam. Thnh cng ny khng b nh hng bi thu nhp
hoc cc c im kinh t x hi khc ca vng ny. N
cho thy vic m rng trng t cc vng ngho kh ca
Pakixtan cng s thnh cng.
T l nhp hc ca tr em gi rt thp nng thn. Do
vy chng trnh ny h tr vic thnh lp cc trng dnh
cho n sinh, cc trng ny thng do mt n gio vin
ng u, y c xem l mt nhn t gp phn tng s
quan tm ca cc ph huynh n vic gi con gi ca h ti
trng. Cc kt qu, mt ln na, cho thy rng chng trnh
Mt chng trnh ci
tin nhm h tr vic
thnh lp cc trng
n sinh Balochistan
dn ti mt bc
nhy trong vic tuyn
cc n sinh n
trng
ANH GIA VIN TR
122
ny lm tng nhanh s tr em gi ti trng, khi so snh vi
cc vng khng c trng dnh cho n sinh, cng ging nh
th, chng trnh ny cng em li tc ng lan truyn
cho vic tng t l nhp hc ca cc em nam.
Rose Neubauer, B trng Gio dc tiu bang Sao Paulo
ca Braxin khi xng vic phn quyn trong gio dc v
ci thin hiu qu gio dc. H thng gio dc c s dng
cng mt c s cho trng tiu hc vo bui sng v bui
chiu cho trng trung hc, cn cc gio vin th dy cc
a im trng hc khc nhau. Mc lng thp v s km
nhit tnh ca cc gio vin cng l mt vn thng gp
trong h thng c. Kt qu l mc tuyn sinh thp, nhiu
hc sinh lu ban v b hc, kt qu hc tp km.
Ci cch c tin hnh theo ba bc. Th nht, h
thng c hp l ha, sp xp, tp trung hc sinh tiu hc
vo cc trng tiu hc, hc sinh trung hc vo cc trng
trung hc. Gio vin cng c phn ti mt trng c th,
gim thi gian phi iu chuyn gio vin v to ra cc b
mn c nh. Vic ny tp trung cc ngun lc ko
di ngy ln lp v tng lng cho gio vin. Ngn sch
tiu bang dnh chi cho gio dc tng ln 10% trong khi
lng ca gio vin gn nh c tng ln gp i - c th
l do hiu qu tng ln.
Bc th hai l thc hin vic phn quyn, chnh quyn
lin bang giao trch nhim v gio dc tiu hc cho cc
th c ngun lc, c nng lc v thc s mun m
ng trch nhim ny. Hiu trng cc trng cng c
trao quyn nhiu hn. Trc kia hiu trng c ch nh
theo quyt nh mang tnh cht chnh tr v thng khng
c c nhng chuyn mn cn thit, theo h thng mi,
hiu trng phi qua mt k thi v s phm v phi lp mt
k hoch hnh ng cho nh trng.
Bc th ba ca qu trnh ci cch l s cam kt v
vic nh gi v nghin cu - ngha l cam kt "ch trng
vo kt qu". S nh gi nghim tc cho php chnh
quyn nhanh chng quyt nh rng ci cch ang em li
kt qu tt. Trong vng mt vi nm s hc sinh tham gia
cc trng tiu hc cc khu th tng gp i t
600.000 ln 1,2 triu hc sinh. T l hc sinh lu ban gim
t hn 10% xung di 4%. T l b hc cc trng tiu
hc gim t 9% xung cn 5%, cc trng trung hc t
l ny gim t 20% xung cn 12%. Th nghim cui
cng ca ci cch s l nh hng ca ci cch i vi kt
qu hc tp ca hc sinh v h thng kim tra s cho php
nh gi mt cch cn thn trong mt vi nm ti. Cc kt
Hnh 5.2. Pakixtan: T l
nhp hc ca tr em gi t
5-8 tui.
%
Trung bnh
Pakixtan
Chng trnh
Balochistan
Ngun: Kim, Alderman v
Orazem 1998.
ANH GIA VIN TR
123
qu ban u rt ha hn v cc gio vin cng cm thy
vui hn. Trong 20 nm qua, Rose Neubauer l B trng
gio dc u tin nm quyn ba nm m cha c s nh
cng ca gio vin.
C th hc c nhng g t ci cch gio dc En
Xanvao, Pakixtan v Braxin? Trong mi trng hp, vic
phn quyn v s tham gia ca x hi dn s trong gio dc
dn ti s ci thin trong cht lng cc dch v cng
cng, c bit l vic to iu kin cho cc nhm ngi
khng c li th tham gia vo cc trng hc. Trong mi
trng hp, vn then cht l chp nhn cc tng tt v
xem liu chng c tc dng hay khng, to ra tim nng cho
thay i c tnh cht h thng, ngha l tim nng ci cch
ton b ngnh. Chnh ph En Xanvao v Braxin ang vn
ng theo nh hng ny. Pakixtan vn ang xem xt liu
sng kin ny c c ph bin ra rng ri khng.
Nhng i vi cc nh ti tr nhng ci cch gio dc
trn l cc v d r rng v cch thc vin tr c th h tr
cc nh ci cch trong vic th nghim ban u, trong qu
trnh nh gi tc ng mt cch nghim tc v nhn ra
din rng. Hn na, nhng c gng ci cch ny c th
khuyn khch vic phn quyn v s tham gia ca cng
ng vo gio dc - c th s c tc dng lan truyn ln
hn lm tng s tham gia ca cng ng vo cc lnh vc
khc nh ng giao thng v chm sc sc khe - mt
lnh vc quan trng cho cc nghin cu trong tng lai.
Vic phn quyn v
cho php s tham gia
ca x hi dn s En
Xanvao, Pakixtan v
Braxin dn ti s
ci thin i vi cc
dch v cng cng
Camrun: ngun ti ch nh cho y t v vic cung cp dch v
Camrun bc vo thp nin 1980 vi tc tng trng
10% nm v bc ra vi tc l -10%. Phn no do kt
qu ca cc c sc bn ngoi, s bin ng ny b cc
chnh sch kinh t ti lm trm trng hn na. Chnh ph
khng iu chnh kp thi vi mi trng quc t y bin
ng, thm ht ngn sch chnh ph ln ti mc 12%
GDP nm 1988. S mt cn i ngn sch buc chnh ph
phi thc thi mt s bin php iu chnh c cu, k c vic
gim tng chi tiu 19%. Ging nh cc nc chu Phi khc
gp phi vn ny, ct gim chi tiu ca nc ny
khng ng u v thin v u t cng nh cc chi tiu
thng xuyn ngoi lng. Ngn sch y t thm ch cn b
ct gim nhiu hn na - trong thi gian t 1987-1990 gim
46%.
ANH GIA VIN TR
124
Nhng ct gim chi tiu ny l mt yu t gy ra tnh
trng cht lng chm sc sc khe km v cc trung tm
y t cng cng lm vic ti. Nhng trung tm y t cng
cng ch cn li 4 hoc 5 y t nhng khng h c thuc
hay cc ngun cung ng khc. Khng c g ngc nhin, cc
nhn vin y t mt ht s nhit tnh. Ch mt s t bnh
nhn n cc trung tm y t cng cng mi ngy cha
bnh v c hi cung cp cc hot ng d phng gim
xung. Hu ht mi ngi pht l trung tm y t v "t
iu tr" bng cc phng thuc truyn thng hoc bng
vic mua cc loi thuc c cht lng ng ng t cc ca
hng t nhn hoc tranh th c vic n cc th trn xa
mua cc loi thuc t tin cc hiu thuc.
Sau , nm 1989 B Y t quyt nh phn quyn
qun l v phn ngun ti chnh ca vic thc hin chm
sc sc khe nng thn. Gii php ny ging nh gii php
ang c th nghim mt s nc chu Phi khc di
s h tr ca Qu Nhi ng Lin hp quc (UNICEF). B
Y t yu cu C quan Pht trin quc t ca M
(USAID) gip thit k v a gii php ny vo hot ng
chm sc sc khe hai tnh. Cc nh ti tr khc v cc
t chc phi chnh ph (C quan Hp tc k thut ca c,
UNICEF, CARE, Qu Cu tr nhi ng) ang ch trng
vo cc kha cnh khc nhau ca vic chm sc sc khe
ban u. Nhng d n do USAID ti tr l d n u tin
trong chnh ph th nghim mt gii php hon ton
mi trong vic cung cp ti chnh v thc hin cc dch v
y t.
Cc u ban y t a phng c thnh lp theo di
hot ng ca cc trung tm y t v gii thch vi ngi
dn v tm quan trng ca cc phng php phng bnh.
Cc trung tm y t c cung cp cc loi thuc cha bnh
v cc phng tin khc, cc ngun cung cp ny s c
cung cp thm thng qua vic thu ph t vn v tin bn
thuc. Cc bin php phng bnh (tim phng, k hoch
ha gia nh, thng tin v nc sch) vn c cung cp
min ph.
Bng vic tp trung cc loi thuc thng thng bo
m cht lng cc trung tm y t v bn vi gi phi
chng, ngi ta c c s cho rng ngi dn s tng
cng n cc trung tm y t. Trn thc t, vic s dng
cc trung tm y t ca cc h gia nh trong vng tng
ln ng k khi c chnh sch mi ny, nhng li gim
cc vng i chng (hnh 5.3). C ngi cng ngh rng
ngi ngho c th khng mun ti cc trung tm ny do
Trong thi k iu
chnh ngn sch v
ct gim chi tiu
Camrun, vic s
dng cc trung tm y
t gim 16%, nhng
cc lng c chng
trnh ci tin v ph
dch v v cc qu
quay vng thuc, vic
s dng tng ln
9%
Hnh 5.3. Camrun: Thay
i v mc s dng cc
trung tm y t, 1990-1991.
%
Nhm i chng
Chng trnh
th nghim
Ngun: Litvack v Bodart 1993.
ANH GIA VIN TR
125
phi tr ph dch v. Nhng iu ny khng xy ra.
Nhng ngi ngho khng b b ri. Thc t, h dng
nh li c li nhiu hn nhng ngi khc. Ti sao vy? V
trc khi c chnh sch ny h thiu cc loi thuc c cht
lng tin cy, do vy chnh sch ny c tc ng ln
hn i vi h (Litvack v Bodart 1993).
Mc d chng trnh th nghim thnh cng ny kt
thc nm 1994 nhng cc c hi nhn rng vn cha th
thnh hin thc. Nhiu sng kin chnh sch thc hin
hai tnh ny i hi phi t b mt s cc th tc thng
thng v nhn rng th nghim ny ra ton quc cn
c nhng thay i ln hn v mt chnh sch v lut php.
V d, th nghim ny d kin rng mi u ban sc khe
phi l mt hip hi t nhn, phi li nhun c quan h vi
i din B Y t bo m s c lp ca u ban ny.
Trong d n do USAID ti tr cng tho ra nhng quy
nh php l cn thit, nhng nhng d tho ny vn cha
c trnh ln quc hi. Cn nhiu vn khc cn phi x
l trc khi nhn rng m hnh th nghim ny: lm th
no gii quyt tnh hnh cc vng kh khn hn; lm
th no chuyn giao ngn sch gia cc cp chnh
quyn c tnh minh bch v c th theo di nhm to ra
cc sng kin thu hi chi ph v lm th no ci thin
ch thu mua tp trung i vi cc loi dc phm.
Kt qu ca s phi hp gia cc nh ci cch khu vc
y t vi cc t chc ti tr l g? t ra th hai tnh
Camrun ang cung cp cc dch v chm sc sc khe tt
hn cho nhn dn. Hn na, thu c mt bi hc rng
s tham gia ca cng ng vi s h tr tt ca chnh ph
c th l mt bin php hu hiu ci thin vic cung cp
cc dch v nng thn, c bit l cho ngi ngho. y
c th l mt u vo quan trng cho mt chng trnh ci
cch ln hn trong ngnh y t v cc ngnh khc. Nhng
do vn cha c nhng ci cch ln, nn cc nh ti tr kh
c th lm g nhiu hn cho ti khi c mt s vn ng
thay i ln trong nc.
Ngnh ng b ca
chu Phi l mt v d
in hnh v vic tin
khng th em li tc
dng ln trong mt
mi trng th ch,
ch nh sch km
Sng kin duy tu ng b chu Phi
Ngnh ng b ca chu Phi l mt v d in hnh v
vic tin khng th em li tc dng ln trong mt mi
trng th ch, chnh sch km. Gn 1/3 tng s tin u
t 150 t la ca chu Phi phn nhiu do vin tr gip
vo ng b b lng ph do khng c duy tu tt.
ANH GIA VIN TR
126
Bc vo nhng nm 1990 khong mt na ng b c
x l b mt v 70% ng b khng x l b mt (ng
t) ca chu Phi trong iu kin trung bnh hoc km.
Tnh trng yu km ca h thng giao thng l mt tr
ngi nghim trng, lm gim gi tr ci cch hoc gi tr
cc khon u t cng cng khc.
Nhng nhc im v chnh sch v th ch khng cho
php cc chnh ph t chc vic duy tu, bo dng ng s,
cho d c ngun ti chnh di do. Vic duy tu ng b hu
ht cc nc ph thuc ch yu vo cc cng ty qun l ng
b nh nc, m cc cng ty ny c mt khi lng ln cc
thit b chuyn dng nhng mc s dng chng qu thp.
ng thi, cc cng ty ny cng c i ng nhn vin d tha.
Do vy s tin c tp trung vo cc thit b v i ng
nhn vin, ch khng dnh cho cc u vo quan trng khc
(ph tng v nhin liu). Vn ang tn ti l hot ng ch
nhm thc hin cc mc tiu (v d nh to vic lm) ngoi
vic duy tu ng s. Hn na, nhng nhc im chung v
ngn sch quc gia thng gy ra ngun vn hot ng khng
u, gy tn hi n hiu qu cng vic ni chung.
i mt vi khng hong ang tng ln, nm 1987
cc b trng giao thng chu Phi a ra chng trnh
giao thng Nam Sahara chu Phi, trong yu t then cht
l sng kin duy tu ng b. Tin ca sng kin ny l
xem vn trng tm ca vic duy tu ng b khng phi
l v mt k thut v ti chnh m "nguyn nhn thc s l
th ch qun l v phn phi ti chnh cho vic duy tu
ng b khng ph hp" (Heggie 1994, tr. 2). Vi mc
tiu l thc y thay i c tnh cht h thng lu di, do
vy vo nm 2000 cc nc c th s thnh cng trong vic
xy dng cc h thng duy tu c th em li kt qu.
c im mi ca sng kin ny l g? Th nht, sng
kin ny bt u bng vic tp trung cc nh hoch nh
chnh sch trong khu vc giao thng v nhng ngi s
dng ng s vo cc cuc hi tho. Trng tm tho lun
l nhng hu qu ca vic b qua duy tu ng b v
nhng nhc im v th ch v chnh sch sinh ra tnh
trng duy tu ng b qu km. Cc nc pht hin ra
rng h c cc kh khn chung v h cng thy nhng
v d v s thnh cng ca ci cch.
Th hai, sng kin ny ch n nhng yu km v
th ch. Vic cc n v duy tu ng b l mt b phn
trong b my cng v vi cc chnh sch cng nhc v nhn
cng gy kh khn cho vic tuyn dng, khuyn khch v
sa thi nhn vin. Vic trao quyn t ch cho cc n v
Kh khn ch nh ca
vic duy tu ng b
khng phi l kh khn
v mt ti ch nh hay
k thut m l cc th
ch khng ph hp
ANH GIA VIN TR
127
qun l ng b c th lm cho vic s dng lao ng c
thc hin hp l hn. ng thi quyn t ch v ti chnh
cng to iu kin tt cho cc n v qun l ng b.
Nhn chung, duy tu ng b l mt loi hng ha cng
cng v cc n v qun l ng b khng th thu ph trc
tip cho vic cung cp hng ha ca h. Nhng l ph giao
thng v thu nhin liu c th c iu chnh bo m
c "gi c" ca vic lm mi v duy tu ng b.
Chnh ph ca mt nc qun l ngn sch tt c th
khng mun quy nh rnh rt rng l ph giao thng v
thu nhin liu phi trang tri cho chi ph duy tu v xy
dng ng s. (Bt k ngun thu l g, n s c s dng
vo nhng ni em li li nhun x hi cao nht). Nhng
ci tt nht c th l k th ca ci tt. Nu ngn sch
khng c qun l tt v khng c ngun ngn sch cho
duy tu ng s - d hiu qu ca vic duy tu l cao nht -
th tt hn l nn tm kim mt th ch ph hp vi trng
hp ny v em li nhng kt qu tt.
Mt s nc tham gia sng kin duy tu ng b lp
ra "qu ng b", trong mt s nht nh tin thu v
ph c dnh cho vic duy tu ng b. S xp xp ny c
nhng li ch sau:
Gip ci thin vic thu thu. Vic thu thu hay da vo
tnh t nguyn ca ngi np thu. Khi nhng ngi s
dng ng b tin rng tin thu h np khng gp
phn cung cp cc dch v cng cng, h s c trnh
np thu. Nu ngi s dng ng b tin rng cc
khon thu to ra ngun ti chnh cho cc dch v phc
v chnh h, h s sn sng np thu.
Gip to mt ngun ti chnh n nh cho vic hot ng
thng ngy ca cc n v qun l ng b. Trc kia
cc thit b t tin v cc nhn vin ca n v qun l
ng b c th b lng ph trong khi chnh ph phi gii
quyt khng hong ln v ngn sch. Vi th ch mi
ny, s c mt ngun ti chnh n nh hn.
Gip ci thin vic chi tiu ngn sch. Cc "qu ng
b" s do cc "Ban giao thng" gim st (Ban ny gm
cc nhn vin nh nc v ngi tham gia giao thng
nh nng dn, thng nhn, cc cng ty vn ti). S kt
hp gia nh nc v khu vc t nhn khng ch gip
thu l ph giao thng tt hn m cn s dng cc qu
mt cch hiu qu hn.
Cc "Ban giao thng" cng l cc u vo quan trng
i vi nhng thay i v th ch khc, gim ph thuc
vo khu vc nh nc l ngi c quyn duy tu ng b.
S kt hp gia ch nh
ph v khu vc t
nhn khng nhng
gip thu l ph giao
thng tt hn m cn
s dng ngun thu
hiu qu hn
ANH GIA VIN TR
128
Ngy nay qu thit b ang c s dng theo c ch th
trng, nhim v duy tu ng b v bo dng thit b
c thc hin theo cc hp ng (Carapetis v cc tc gi
khc 1991).
Mt bi hc then cht l vic xy dng mt k hoch
lu di cho ci cch c mt ngha rt quan trng. Sng
kin ny bt u nm 1987 nhng ch n nm 1992 n
mi th hin cc kt qu ln. ng thi, sng kin ny
cng th hin tm quan trng ca vic "hnh thnh kin
thc"- thut ng chng ti s dng trong nghin cu ny.
Trong cc mi trng b bp mo nghim trng, mi ngi
ngng mong i chnh ph cung cp dch v v h nghi
ng v kh nng ci cch. Nhng g cn thit trong tnh
hnh ny khng phi ch l cc tng tt m cn l cc
minh chng rng ci cch c th em li kt qu tt. Ngy
nay c nhng bng chng r rng v gi tr ca ci
cch, cc tng tt t sng kin duy tu ng b chu
Phi ang nhanh chng lan rng ra cc nc. S tham gia
ca x hi dn s vo cc th ch nh nc cng l rt cn
thit i vi ci cch.
Kt lun
Ngho kh lun ng hnh vi chng ta. Vin tr pht
trin mi ch c 50 tui i. iu ng khch l l trong
hot ng vin tr thu c nhiu thnh cng ln v
khng c g ngc nhin khi cng c mt vi tht bi ng
nh. Nhiu tht bi lin quan ti cc khon u t da trn
nhng tnh ton chin lc b nh hng ca chin tranh
lnh. Nhng s tht bi ca vin tr khng n gin l s
theo ui cc mc tiu phi pht trin. Nhiu ngi ngho
trn th gii sng cc nc c th ch v chnh sch ti,
do vy cc c quan vin tr phi hot ng trong cc mi
trng kh khn. Nhng t tng pht trin trc y cho
rng mt lng vn ln vo nhng nc ny s thc y
tng trng. Trng hp ny khng th nh vy. Cc v d
y ch ra rng c th gip s pht trin cc nc c
mi trng th ch v chnh sch ti, nhng trng tm phi
l h tr cc nh ci cch ch khng phi l tng thnh tch
gii ngn.
C mt s cc ch chung xuyn sut nhng v d v
vin tr c hiu qu, phi c nhng nh ci cch hng u
c tm nhn chin lc c cp a phng v cp quc
gia. Vin tr phi gip cc nh ci cch ny hnh thnh
C th gip pht trin
ANH GIA VIN TR
129
nhng kin thc cn thit thc y pht trin c hiu
qu. Trong cc mi trng kh khn, dch v cng cng c
cht lng km hoc khng tn ti. Bi v trong nhng
trng hp ny cc chnh ph thc hin cc chc nng qu
km, nhng sng kin c hiu qu lun lin quan n vic
gn lin vi x hi dn s - nhm dn ti ci cch trong
nh nc hoc to ra nhng c ch cung cp thay th.
Trong khi c th to ra s khc bit cc nc c th
ch v chnh sch ti th vic bo m vin tr c c
cc tc dng ln ni chung i hi phi ci cch trn quy
m ton quc. Vit Nam ci cch ton quc vo cui
nhng nm 1980 to cho vic gim ngho vo
nhng nm 1990. Nhng trong khu vc y t ca Camrun,
s sng kin thnh cng hai tnh khng c nhn rng
ra ton quc gia. iu thit yu l qun l kinh t quc
gia vn cn km v khng tn dng nhng li th v sng
kin thnh cng.
Nhng thay i c cu quc gia thng lm cho cc
nh quan st ngc nhin. Cui nhng nm 1980, khng ai
c th nhn trc c nhng thay i v kinh t chnh tr
c th din ra vi Lin X. Nhng ci cch Vit Nam,
n vo u nhng nm 1990 v tipia hoc En
Xanvao sau ni chin, tt c u kh c th d on trc
mt vi nm. iu ny c ngha g i vi cc nh ti tr.
i vi cc nh ti tr cn tm kim cc c hi h tr cho
cc cuc ci cch trong iu kin kh khn, tuy khng c
c nhiu nh hng i vi vic liu nhng thnh cng
a phng c c nhn rng ra ton quc hay khng.
Mt ch chung khc lin quan ti hnh vi ca nh
ti tr. Trong cc trng hp vin tr thnh cng, cc nh
ti tr hp tc cng nhau ch khng phi cnh tranh ln
nhau, h tp trung nhiu hn vo vic hnh thnh kin thc
ch khng phi vo tin gii ngn. c c hiu qu
nht qun i hi cc nh ti tr phi thay i cch thc
lm vic v ng c i vi cc nh qun l ca mnh - bi
nhng yu t ny thng khuyn khch ch trng vo khi
lng ti chnh hay ch trng vo vic nh gi "s thnh
cng" ca d n theo ngha hp, h khng ch trng vo s
ng gp ca vin tr i vi s thay i c tnh cht h
thng. Mt nghin cu gn y v s ph thuc vo vin
tr do SIDA ti tr phn tch vn nh sau:
cc nc c mi
trng th ch v
ch nh sch ti nhng
trng tm phi l h
tr cc nh ci cch
ch khng phi l
tng thnh t ch gii
ngn
C nh ti tr v nc nhn vin tr u c cc h
thng khuyn khch trong thng cho vic t c
Cc nh ti tr cn to
ra cc c ch v cc
ANH GIA VIN TR
130
ch tiu chuyn giao ngun lc c xc nh theo
mc trn nh trc... Trong qun l c vin tr
song phng v a phng u ch trng vo vic gii
ngn v s phn b theo quc gia. Nhng khon tin
khng c gii ngn s b lnh o v c th dn
ti vic gim lng vin tr c phn b trong ti
kho tip theo.
V pha cc nc nhn vin tr, cc quan chc ca
cc b ti chnh v k hoch c thng v h
ginh c vn cam kt t cc nh ti tr thng qua
m phn song phng hoc trong cc cuc gp mt
cc nh ti tr, ngay c khi lng gii ngn khng
nh cam kt. Cc kt qu c xc nh da trn
s lng m khng cn c vo cht lng qun l
vin tr nh th no. Cht lng c xc nh da
trn nhng nh gi thng xuyn, nhng mt ny
ca vin tr rt phc tp v lun lun gy tranh ci.
Hn na, khi n lc cn nh gi kt qu thc s th
hu ht nhng ngi chu trch nhim i vi d n
(c pha ti tr v pha nc nhn vin tr) u
thay i cng tc.
Nhng thng l ny c mi lin h trc tip vi cht
lng chng trnh cng nh vi cm gic ca nhng
ngi ch ca chng trnh. Vi cc nc ph thuc
vo vin tr hin nay, cc nh ti tr v cc b k
hoch di sc p thi gian thc p cc chng
trnh mi thc hin nhanh chng. Trong nhng
chng trnh quy m ln ny cht lng b xp th
hai sau s lng v cu hi v thc lm ch cha
bao gi ny sinh: chnh nhng ngi ch lun hi
thc cc chng trnh ny (Edgren 1996, tr. 11).
Cc nh ti tr cn to ra cc c ch v cc n by ni
ti nhm tng cng s la chn v tp trung cc ngun ti
chnh quy m ln vo cc nc ang pht trin c cc
chnh sch tt. Vi cc nc c chnh sch ti, cc nh ti
tr cn phi kin nhn hn v chp nhn rng s h tr ti
u c th l cc hot ng khng i hi nhiu ngun lc.
Cc t chc ti tr hc c t nhng thnh cng v
tht bi ca h. Trong nhng nm 1990, tt c cc t chc
ln u khi xng cc ci cch nhm tng cng ch
trng vo cc kt qu b ni (Khung 5.1). Hu ht cc t
chc xy dng cc chin lc vin tr quc gia, cc
hot ng ring bit phi ph hp vi mt k hoch ln
hn i vi ci cch chnh sch v thay i th ch. Vn
vi mt cch nh trn, trng tm ca vic nh gi vt
n by ni ti nhm
tng cng s la
chn v tp trung cc
ngun ti ch nh quy
m ln vo cc nc
ang pht trin c cc
ch nh sch tt
ANH GIA VIN TR
131
ln trn tm ca cc d n trong cc chng trnh nh gi
quc gia. Cu hi cn thit l: cc nh ti tr s dng
cc ngun lc ca h khuyn khch thay i v th ch
v chnh sch dn ti vic ci thin cc dch v cng cng
v nng cao cht lng cuc sng hay cha? y khng
phi l cu hi d tr li. Nhng y l mt cu hi rt tt.
Gn y Hi ng pht trin hi ngoi (ODC) ti tr
cho nghin cu v tc dng ton din ca vin tr tm
nc chu Phi, do cc hc gi cc nc ang pht trin
nhn vin tr v mt s nc ti tr chnh m nhim - y
c xem l mt gii php c kt qu cao. ng thi cc
c ng ca Qu Tin t quc t gn y s dng mt
nhm hc gi bn ngoi nh gi s h tr ca Qu
Tin t quc t i vi cc nc ci cch thu nhp thp.
Ngn hng Th gii khi xng vic nghin cu vin
tr quc gia vi s tham gia rng ri ca cc bn c lin
quan.
Khung 5.1 Ci cch cc c quan vin tr trong
nhng nm 1990
Mt thch thc chnh i vi cc c quan vin
tr trong nhng nm gn y l phi iu chnh
cc chin lc v th ch, phong cch lm vic v
kh nng lm vic trong vn pht trin c s
tham gia ca ngi dn. Cc phng thc mi
trong vic tuyn dng, phn cng v nh gi hot
ng ca cc nhn vin, cc phng php qun l
d n mi, v cc tiu chun mi nh gi s
thnh cng, tt c u ni ln ngy cng mnh.
Tin trnh ny t c nhng g? Nhng g cn
phi c thc hin tip.
i vi cc ngn hng pht trin a phng,
cc bo co t thc hin dn ti vic phi xem
xt li hiu qu ca cc cng c truyn thng ca
cc ngn hng ny - tn dng d n. Bt u bng
bo co Wapenhans ca Ngn hng Th gii, sau
l cc bo co tng t ca Ngn hng pht
trin Lin M (Inter-American Development
Bank), Ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB) v
Ngn hng pht trin chu Phi. Tt c rt ra kt
lun rng s lng cc khon cho vay vt xa
cht lng. ng lc ca cc nhn vin l t c
s ph chun khon vay ch khng phi l bo
m cho cc d n thnh cng hoc t c cc
mc tiu pht trin ln hn. Cc nhn t th ch
quyt nh vic tc ng ti s pht trin n nh
b b qua. Hin nay, nhng thay i trong cc
t chc a phng v cch tip cn ngnh ang
tng bc thay th cch tip cn d n. Ngn hng
Th gii lng cc mc tiu v phong cch lm
vic vo mt chin lc hp tc hng ti cc i
tc trong v ngoi chnh ph.
Trong cc t chc song phng cng c
nhng thay i tng t, cc t chc ny tng hot
ng theo nh hng gii ngn. Nhng cc cng
c ca h ch yu l cc khon vin tr khng
hon li ch khng phi cc khon tn dng, h c
th cung cp h tr k thut linh lot hn. Trng
tm hot ng ca cc t chc ny chuyn t
cc d n u t sang vic xy dng nng lc v
h tr ci cch chnh sch.
Trong tt c nhng thay i ny, trng tm l
cc kt qu pht trin - ch trng n pht trin
nhn lc v cc tin b v kinh t, chnh tr v x
hi do cc n lc ca cc nc ang pht trin v
cc i tc ca h to ra.
Ngun: Nhn vin U ban vin tr pht trin
(DAC).
Cc nghin cu c lp ca cc t chc pht trin vi
s tham gia mnh m ca cc nc ang pht trin c s
dng nghin cu vi trng tm l hai vn sau: ngun
ti chnh ln tp trung vo cc mi trng th ch,
ANH GIA VIN TR
132
chnh sch tt cha? V cc t chc c gp phn vo qu
trnh ci cch chnh sch v thay i th ch hay khng?
Vic nh gi chnh xc s to thng tin phn hi cho qu
trnh qun l v cc n by trong cc t chc ti tr. Khi
vic qun l v nh gi c ci thin th cc t chc pht
trin s:
C s la chn cht hn - u t nhiu tin hn vo
cc nn kinh t qun l tt.
Da trn c s kin thc cao hn - s dng ngun lc
h tr cc gii php cung cp dch v mi, nng cao
trnh hiu bit v nhng gii php em li kt qu
v ph bin rng ri cc thng tin ny.
Phi hp vi nhau tt hn - cc t chc hng theo kt
qu s khng lo lng nhiu v mu c sc o ca h
trn cc d n c th v h s tnh ton nhiu hn v
vic lm cch no cc cng ng, cc chnh ph v
cc nh ti tr c th cng hp tc nhm ci thin cc
dch v cng cng.
T nghim khc vi mnh hn - cc t chc cn lin tc
t hi rng: Ti sao chng ta lm nhng vic ? V
tc dng l g?
Vi s hiu bit tt hn v pht trin v hiu qu vin
tr, khi khng cn sc p chin lc ca chin tranh lnh
na, s c nhng l do lc quan rng ci cch cc c
quan vin tr s thnh cng.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
133
Ph lc 1
nh gi tc ng ca vin tr
i vi tng trng
Phn ph lc s cung cp cc chi tit k thut v mt s
kt qu nghin cu quan trng ni bt trong nghin cu
ny. Cc kt qu ny da vo cc ti liu nghin cu
di hnh thc cc bi bo hoc cc bo co cng tc
c truy nhp t trang in t nh gi Vin tr
(http://www.world bank.org/research/aid). Nhng bn
c no mun c thm chi tit nn trc tip tm n cc
ngun trn. Ni chung, cc d liu u c sn trang
in t ny. Ph lc u tin s xem xt tc ng ca
vin tr i vi tng trng.
Nn tng l thuyt cho cc nghin cu thc tin gn
y v tng trng ch yu l da vo cc m hnh ng
v vn tr lin thi. Trong cc m hnh ny, s tch ly
vn vt cht v nhn lc ph thuc vo nhng iu kin
ban u v cc th ch, chnh sch l cc yu t c tc
ng ti kt qu u t v tch ly. Do vy, tng trng
l mt hm s ca cc iu kin ban u, cc th ch,
chnh sch v cc c "sc" bn ngoi nh nhng thay i
v iu kin gi thng mi hoc nhng thay i v kh
hu.
i vi vin tr, kiu phn tch ny phi xt n thc
t l tng trng km c th lm cho cc nh ti tr tng
vin tr. Cc k thut phn tch bin s gin tip
(instrumental variables) tch cc lung vin tr thnh
cc yu t thng xuyn v tm thi. Ch cc khon vin
tr thng xuyn mi c a vo hi quy. Nhng hi
quy trong bng A1.1 s dng cc d liu t mu ca
Burnside v Dollar (1997). Bin s ph thuc l tc
tng ca GNP trn u ngi c tnh bnh qun bn
nm mt t 1970-1973 n 1990-1993. Mu ny xem xt
56 nc ang pht trin v 6 thi k bn nm (Bng
A1.2) tuy vn thiu mt s quan st do khng c s liu.
Hi quy 1 l gii rng tng trng l mt hm s ca
cc iu kin ban u, ch khuyn khch v mt biu
thc sai s phn nh cc c sc t bn ngoi. Theo cc
nghin cu khc, cc i lng ca h thng khuyn
khch bao gm t l lm pht (Fischer 1993), thng d
ANH GIA VIN TR
134
ngn sch (Easterly v Rebelo 1993), mt i lng v
s m ca thng mi (Sachs v Warner 1995) v mt
i lng v cht lng th ch (Knack v Keefer 1995).
Mc tiu dng ca chnh ph cng c xem xt, nhng
i lng ny khng c quan h ln vi tng trng.
Ch s qun l kinh t s dng trong chng ny
c hnh thnh theo tng gia quyn ca t l lm pht,
thng d ngn sch, m ca thng mi v cht lng
cc th ch, trong ch s ny trng s l cc h s hi
quy trong hi quy 1. Ch s ny c th c hiu l tc
tng trng d on, trong iu kin cho trc v c
ch khuyn khch v vi gi nh rng nc c d bo
c cc gi tr bnh qun i vi cc bin s iu kin ban
u. Ch s qun l bnh qun l 1,1 vi lch chun
1,6 (Cm t "qun l tt" trong ti liu cp mc 2,7
im hoc ln hn).
Trong hi quy 2, ch s qun l kinh t thay th cc yu
t ring bit, ch s ny c xem l c mi quan h rt
mnh vi tng trng. Hi quy 3 a thm bin s t l
vin tr theo GDP v cc s liu v vin tr v cng c
gin tip l dn s v cc bin s phn nh s quan tm
chin lc ca cc nh ti tr. Ging nh "Boone 1994"
ch ra, khng tn ti mi quan h gia tng trng v vin
tr. Tuy vy, tnh hnh thay i khi vin tr tng tc vi
ch s qun l. Hi quy 4 bao gm s tng tc gia vin
tr v vin tr bnh phng vi ch s qun l (kh nng
ni sinh ho i hi cc cng c gin tip phi c s
dng cho c bin s vin tr ln cc bin s khc). H s
dng ca vin tr nhn vi ch s qun l v h s m ca
vin tr bnh phng nhn vi ch s qun l cho bit rng
vin tr c tc ng t l thun i vi tng trng
mt mi trng chnh sch tt nhng li ch cn bin ca
vin tr gim dn. Tuy vy, cn nhn mnh rng c lng
v li ch vin tr gim dn l khng chnh xc. nh
gi li ch ca vin tr cn phi c cc trng hp trong
cc chnh sch tt v s lng vin tr rt ln. Nhng
trng hp ny ch c rt t, do vy c lng li ph thuc
vo nhng quan st him hoi nm tch khi i b phn
cc quan st. Khi b bt cc quan st him hoi ny, h s
hi quy tch s vin tr bnh phng vi ch s qun l s
khng cn ngha na. Tuy vy, h s dng ca tch s
gia vin tr v ch s qun l th hin rt r (hi quy 5).
Mu nghin cu ny c c cc nc thu nhp trung
bnh nh Chil v Mhic, y l cc nc nhn
lng vin tr thp v h cng tip cn vi th trng
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
135
vn quc t. Cc hi quy t 6 n 8 lp li cc hi quy t
3 n 5, nhng loi tr cc nc c thu nhp trung bnh.
Cc kt qu cng r hn khi xem xt hai mt sau: th
nht, tc ng d kin ca vin tr i vi tng trng
cc nc qun l tt thng ln hn; v th hai, tin
cy thng k tng ln.
Vi mt cht lng chnh sch v mc vin tr cho
trc, cc hi quy 4, 5, 7 v 8 ln lt l mt c lng
im v tc ng cn bin ca 1% GDP vin tr i vi
tng trng. Gi tr bnh qun ca cc c lng im ny
cho cc mc cht lng chnh sch khc nhau l:
Tc dng cn bin ca 1% GDP vin tr (im phn
trm):
Chnh sch ti
(ch s=0)
0,3
Chnh sch trung
bnh (1,1)
0
Chnh sch tt
(2,7)
0,5
Nu tc ng c lng ca vin tr trong mt mi
trng chnh sch ti l m, th c lng ny v gi tr
cng gn bng 0. Tc ng c lng ca vin tr trong
mt mi trng chnh sch tt l dng vi gi tr tuyt
i ln. Nhng gi tr bnh qun t bn hi quy trn l
nhng kt qu d tnh c th hin trn hnh 1.5. H s
dng trong biu thc tng tc cng c ngha l nhng
ci thin v chnh sch s c tc dng ln hn nu mt
nc ang c vin tr. Cui cng, lu rng tiu dng
ca chnh ph khng c mi quan h mnh vi tng
trng - v vin tr thng to ngun ti chnh cho tiu
dng ca chnh ph (chng 3).
ANH GIA VIN TR
136
Bng A1.1. c lng tc ng ca vin tr i vi tng trng
Bin s ph thuc: Tc tng trng GDP u ngi (bnh qun 4 nm)
Mu: 56 nc ang pht trin, cc thi k 4 nm (1970-1973 n 1990-1993)
Hi quy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
GDP u ngi ban u -0,60 -0,63 -0,67 -0,74 -0,95 -0,80 -1,14 -1,42
(1,04) (1,30) (1,00) (0,90) (1,09) (0,82) (1,22) (1,27)
su ti chnh 0,01 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,02 0,03
a
0,05
a
0,03
a
(0,95) (1,12) (1,68) (1,66) (1,62) (1,99) (1,99) (1,99)
Bt n chnh tr -0,42 -0,42 -0,39 -0,34 -0,34 -0,72 -0,93 -0,69
(1,50) (1,57) (1,43) (1,15) (1,19) (1,15) (1,75) (1,32)
Qun l kinh t - 1,00
b
1,03
b
0,50
a
0,70
b
1,20
b
0,01 0,58
a
(7,17) (7,01) (1,93) (3,42) (7,00) (0,01) (2,08)
M ca thng mi 2,11
b
- - - - - - -
(4,11)
Lm pht -1,56
b
- - - - - - -
(3,92)
Thng d ngn sch 4,07 - - - - - - -
(1,03)
Cht lng th ch 0,66
b
- - - - - - -
(3,75)
Tiu dng ca chnh ph -2,53 -1,96 -4,38 -1,53 -1,73 -2,38 2,10 1,13
(0,55) (0,52) (0,68) (0,21) (0,25) (0,40) (0,29) (0,17)
Vin tr/GDP - - -0,08 -0,15 -0,37 -0,10 -0,28 -0,53
(0,28) (0,35) (0,89) (0,49) (0,79) (1,69)
Ch s: qun l x vin tr/GDP - - - 0,66
a
0,24
a
- 0,99
b
0,36
b
(2,11) (2,38) (2,69) (3,64)
Ch s: qun l x (vin tr/GDP)
2
- - - -0,07 - - -0,09
a
-
(1,63) (2,10)
R
2
0,41 0,41 0,39 0,35 0,39 0,46 0,36 0,46
S quan st 284 284 272 272 268 189 189 185
a. Kim nh mc 5%
b. Kim nh mc 1%
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
137
Bng A1.2. Cc nc trong bng s liu
Nam Sahara
chu Phi
M Latinh
Trung ng v
Bc Phi
ng Nam
Btxoana
Camrun
Ct ivoa
tipia
Gabng
Gmbia
Gana
Knia
Maagaxca
Malauy
Mali
Nigi
Nigiria
Xngan
Xira Lin
Xmali
Tandania
Tg
Daia
Dmbia
Dimbabu
chentina
Blivia
Braxin
Chil
Clmbia
Csta Rica
CH minica
cuao
En Xanvao
Goatmala
Guyana
Haiti
nurt
Giamaica
Mhic
Nicaragoa
Paragoay
Pru
Trinit
v Tbag
Urugoay
Vnxula
Angiri
Ai Cp
Marc
Tuynidi
Xyri
Th Nh K
Innsia
Hn Quc
Philippin
Thi Lan
Malaixia
n
Pakixtan
Xri Lanca
ANH GIA VIN TR
138
Ph lc 2
Gii th ch v thnh cng hay tht bi
ca cc chng trnh iu chnh c cu
Gn y, l thuyt qun l kinh t v m v ci cch
kinh t thay i trng tm. Thay v coi qu trnh xy
dng v thc hin chnh sch kinh t l mt bi ton i
chng vi n s l mt quy tc chnh sch ti u, trng tm
ca nghin cu hng v chnh quy trnh chnh sch.
Chnh sch kinh t c la chn phn tch theo mc
hp dn ca cc bin php khuyn khch c gii hn m
cc nh hoch nh chin lc c php s dng. Nghin
cu l thuyt v kinh t chnh tr xc nh mt s yu t
tc ng ti kh nng thnh cng ca ci cch (xem
Rodrik 1996 im qua cc nghin cu ny). th nghim
nhng l thuyt ny v iu tra vic liu cc yu t
thuc s kim sot ca Ngn hng Th gii c tc ng
no ti thnh cng hay tht bi ca ci cch khng, cn
phi c mt i lng v mc ci cch chnh sch.
Nghin cu trc y nhm l gii tin trnh ci cch
s dng cc i lng kt qu hot ng khc nhau
(hoc nhng thay i ca chng) lm bin s i din cho
ci cch, nhng nghin cu ny hin nhin l cn khim
khuyt. V d, kt qu hot ng mt phn no chu s
tc ng ca cc c sc ngoi sinh m kh c th tch bit
khi cc tc ng ca cc chnh sch, c mt tr t khi
thay i chnh sch n khi thu c kt qu, cc ci cch
c cc mc tiu khc nhau v do c th khng c
nh gi theo cng mt thc o kt qu. Dollar v
Svensson (1998) trnh nhng vn ny bng cch s
dng mt bin s nh phn (0-1) phn nh tht bi hay
thnh cng ca cc chng trnh ci cch c s h tr ca
Ngn hng Th gii. Bin s nh gi theo h nh phn
c V nh gi hot ng ca Ngn hng Th gii
(OED) xc nh ti thi im sau s kin (ex-post).
Khi s dng bin s ci cch 0-1 lm bin s ph thuc
th c th xc nh mt hm hi quy dng probit gn xc
sut thnh cng ca ci cch vi cc bin s v kinh t
chnh tr trong nc, cc bin s v n lc ca Ngn hng
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
139
Th gii v vi cc bin s i chng khc. Nhng hi quy
trong bng A2.1 s dng cc d liu c to ra trong
nghin cu ca Dollar v Svensson (1998), bao gm 182
khon tn dng iu chnh trong thi k 1980-1995 l thi
k c s liu so snh: 36% ca nhng chng trnh ci
cch ny c xem l khng t c mc tiu ci cch.
Hi quy 1 gii thch kh nng thnh cng ca ci cch
theo mt hm s ca mt s bin s kinh t chnh tr chnh.
Tt c cc bin s ny u c tc ng ln, ngha l ci
cch thnh cng c quan h cht ch vi mt chnh ph
dn ch v n nh kinh t. Ly khai sc tc v di ca
mi nhim k ng chc ca cc quan chc c tc ng
mt cch phi tuyn tnh, ngha chnh y l ly khai sc
tc mc cao s khng c li cho ci cch chnh sch v
cc quan chc cm quyn qu lu kh c th l cc ng c
vin ci cch. Hi quy 1 d on chnh xc 75% tng mu
quan st.
Trong hi quy 2 b sung mt s bin s lin quan
n Ngn hng, tuy vn bin s ni sinh cha c gii
quyt. Mt s cc bin s ny c th l ngoi sinh, ngha l
tn dng iu chnh c cu ch trng vo ci cch thng
mi hay ci cch ngnh ph thuc vo tnh cht ca nhng
vn chnh sch trong nc v mong mun ca chnh ph
v vic gii quyt vn ny. Nhng g Ngn hng Th
gii c th kim sot r rng l s thi gian chun b v
gim st ca cc nhn vin Ngn hng Th gii. Trong hi
quy 2, thi gian chun b c mi lin h t l thun vi kh
nng thnh cng ca ci cch, cn qu trnh gim st c
mi lin h ngc chiu vi kh nng thnh cng. Mt khi
nm c hai bin s ny, th cc bin s khc lin quan
ti ngn hng nh s iu kin, quy m vn vay v phn
b iu kin rng buc u khng c vai tr g na.
Mt gi thit ngm bn trong hi quy 2 l Ngn hng
Th gii khng quan tm ti cc c sc ngoi sinh c th
lm gim kh nng thnh cng ca ci cch - ngha l biu
thc sai s trong hi quy 2 c gi nh l khng tng
quan vi thi gian chun b v gim st ca nhn vin
Ngn hng Th gii. Tuy nhin, mt c sc ngoi sinh lm
gim kh nng thnh cng c th cn n nhiu thi gian
hn cho vic chun b v gim st. Do vy, c th nh
gi c nhng mi lin h ny nht thit phi chia n lc
ca Ngn hng Th gii thnh mt phn c th d on
c lp vi cc c sc ngoi sinh v mt phn khng th
ANH GIA VIN TR
140
d on c. C th lm c iu bng cch s dng
k thut probit hai giai on ca Amemiya (1978). Hi
quy 3 cho kt qu khi a thm vo bin s v phn c th
c d on ca n lc Ngn hng Th gii. Mt khi cc
bin s n lc ngn hng c coi l ni sinh, th s khng
c mi lin h gia chng vi thnh cng hay tht bi ca
cc chng trnh iu chnh, trong khi mi lin h gia cc
bin s kinh t - chnh tr vi kt qu cc chng trnh iu
chnh l n nh. Kt qu ny ph hp vi quan im cho
rng cc yu t th ch v chnh tr c nh hng n kh
nng thnh cng ca mt chng trnh ci cch. Vi nhng
yu t v th ch v chnh tr cho trc, khng bin s no
trong s kim sot ca Ngn hng Th gii nh hng ln
n thnh cng hay tht bi ca cc chng trnh iu
chnh. Nu khng tnh n vn ni sinh th s c mi
quan h t l thun gia cng tc chun b v kt qu, v
mi quan h t l nghch gia cng tc gim st ca Ngn
hng Th gii vi cc kt qu iu chnh c cu. Vic cc
mi quan h ny khng xut hin trong cc hi quy probit
hai giai on ch ra rng nhng mi lin h ny phn nh
cch thc m Ngn hng Th gii phn b cc ngun lc.
tm hiu k hn v vn ny, cc phng trnh hi
quy i vi vic gim st v chun b c m t trong
cc ct t 4 n 6. Hi quy 4 ch ra rng vic chun b c
lin h cht ch vi mt s cc bin s (cc bin s gi cho
a bn khu vc, quy m khon vay, s iu kin rng
buc, thu nhp v dn s) khng c quan h vi xc sut
thnh cng - nhng c quan h rt m nht vi cc bin s
kinh t chnh tr.
C mt tnh hung tng t i vi vic phn b cc
ngun lc gim st (cc hi quy 5 v 6). Khng ging nh
phng trnh ca cng tc chun b, cc bin s gi cho a
bn khu vc khng cn quan trng na. Cc V khu vc
ca Ngn hng Th gii u t cng sc chun b cho cc
khon tn dng khng ging nhau, nhng mt khi cc
khon tn dng ny c duyt, cc V khu vc dnh
ngun lc nh nhau gim st cc khon vay vi cc c
im c bit trc. Trong phng trnh gim st cng
cn phi xem xt s nh hng ca cng tc chun b i
vi cng tc gim st. Trong hi quy bnh phng nh nht
OLS (hi quy 5) tn ti mt mi quan h mnh t l thun
gia vic chun b v vic gim st. Quan h ny phn nh
thc t l biu thc sai s trong cc phng trnh chun b
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
141
v gim st chc chn c s tng quan vi nhau. Bt c
iu g khng c quan st m dn ti cng tc chun b
cao hn (thp hn) so vi d tnh s chc chn dn n
cng tc gim st cao hn (thp hn) so vi d tnh. Vic
bin s gi cho a bn khu vc ch xut hin trong phng
trnh chun b m khng c trong phng trnh gim st
ni ln mt iu l c th s dng chng lm cng c gin
tip khc phc vn ng bin (simultaneity) ny.
Trong hi quy bnh phng nh nht hai giai on (hi quy
6), mi quan h gia chun b v gim st khng cn
ngha g na.
ANH GIA VIN TR
142
Bng A2.1. D t nh kt qu ca vic iu chnh vn vay
Hi quy
1 2 3 4 5 6
Bin ph thuc
Kt qu
hot
ng
Kt qu
hot
ng
Kt qu
hot ng
Chun
b
Gim
st
Gim
st
Phng php hi quy Probit Probit Probit IV
a
OLS OLS IV
a
S quan st 220 182 179 179 179 179
S nc 67 60 60 60 60 60
Hng s -0,098 -0,762 -0,366 3,311 2,685 3,272
(0,32) (0,72) (0,25) (4,38) (4,02) (3,11)
Ly khai sc tc 5,930 8,176 7,763 0,018 -0,134 -0,144
(4,16) (4,40) (4,04) (0,04) (0,42) (0,46)
Ly khai sc tc bnh phng -6,513 -8,501 -8,046 0,043 0,213 0,254
(4,27) (4,32) (3,79) (0,10) (0,59) (0,73)
Khng hong Chnh ph -1,301 -2,372 -2,285 -0,223 -0,029 -0,017
(3,94) (4,46) (4,29) (2,48) (0,39) (0,18)
Bu c dn ch 0,585 0,887 0,912 0,124 -6,1E-3 -0,009
(2,61) (3,11) (3,09) (1,98) (0,01) (0,18)
Thi gian cm quyn -0,089 -0,118 -0,113 0,004 0,003 0,004
(2,07) (2,23) (2,09) (0,36) (0,29) (0,48)
Thi gian cm quyn bnh phng 0,003 0,004 0,004 -3,7E-3 3,6E-3 -4,7E-3
(2,15) (2,17) (2,02) (0,99) (1,14) (1,47)
Thi gian chun b, tun cng (log) 0,966 0,323 0,339 0,364
(2,31) (0,24) (5,14) (1,34)
Thi gian gim st, tun cng (log) -1,410 -0,869
(2,92) (0,67)
iu kin ti chnh (%) 1,217 1,423 -0,149 -0,078 -0,123
(1,84) (2,02) (1,07) (0,67) (0,99)
iu kin v m v ngn sch (%) 0,910 0,766 -0,260 -0,323 -0,256
(1,04) (0,89) (1,33) (1,97) (1,41)
iu kin ngnh (%) 1,386 1,161 0,002 0,180 0,175
(2,26) (1,83) (0,02) (1,65) (1,59)
iu kin thng mi 1,067 0,961 -0,021 -0,141 -0,141
(1,70) (1,46) (0,15) (1,25) (1,23)
S iu kin rng buc (%) 0,153 0,074 0,077
(3,29) (1,85) (1,28)
Quy m vn vay (log) 0,281 0,210 0,220
(5,29) (4,37) (2,50)
Vn iu chnh c cu -0,145 -0,062 -0,105
(2,16) (1,10) (1,58)
Nam Sahara chu Phi -0,080 0,093
(0,78) (1,09)
M Latinh v vng Carib -0,284 0,020
(3,06) (0,25)
ng -0,148 -0,118
(1,39) (1,33)
GDP u ngi ban u (log) -0,064 -0,453 -0,184
(1,04) (2,96) (3,39)
Dn s ban u (log) -0,147 -0,099 -0,124
(3,90) (3,00) (2,66)
D bo nng lc 0,75 0,80
H s R
2
iu chnh 0,34 0,45
a. Hi quy 3 c lng theo quy trnh 2 giai on nu trong Dollar v Svensson (1998) vi cc thng s
chun b v gim st nh ca hi quy 4 v 6. Hi quy 6 p dng phng php bnh phng nh nht
hai giai on vi thng s chun b nh ca hi quy 4. Gi tr t trong ngoc n.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
143
Ph lc 3
Phn t ch t nh bt phn nh
ca vin tr nc ngoi
Mt trong cc cch m thng qua vin tr nc
ngoi nh hng n pht trin l vin tr tc ng n cc
chi tiu cng cng ca nc nhn vin tr. Tuy nhin, mi
lin h gia vin tr nc ngoi v chi tiu cng cng
khng phi l n gin, bi v vin tr c th l "bt phn
nh". Mt nc nhn vin tr c th lm cho vin tr nhn
c tr thnh bt phn nh bng cch lm gim cc
ngun lc ca mnh cho ngnh nhn c vin tr v
chuyn chng sang cc ngnh khc.
Nm 1998, Feyzioglu, Swaroop v Zhu nghin cu
vn ny bng cch s dng dy s liu hng nm trong
thi k 1971-1990 ca 14 nc - Bnglat, Csta Rica,
cuao, Ai Cp, nurt, Knia, Mhic, Malauy,
Malaixia, Pru, Xira Lin, Thi Lan, Th Nh K v Daia.
Hai bin s v vin tr nc ngoi c s dng l tng
vin tr cho mt nc (s gii ngn thc t ca ODA) v t
trng theo ngnh ca cc khon tn dng u i t tt c
cc ngun trong khong thi gian 1971-1990. Cc bin s
khc trong cc c s d liu gm s liu chi tiu cng cng
tng cng v theo ngnh, GDP bnh qun u ngi thc
t, t l t vong tr s sinh, s nm i hc bnh qun, t l
nhp hc, chi tiu qun s ca cc nc lng ging v t
trng nng nghip trong tng thu nhp quc dn.
M hnh trong nghin cu ny thit lp cc mi lin kt
gia vin tr nc ngoi v chi tiu cng cng vi gi thit
rng cc kt qu quan st c v c cu chi tiu cng
cng xut pht t vic kt hp nhng la chn ti a ha
li ch ca chnh ph trong vic s dng cc ngun lc bt
phn nh - c trong nc v ngoi nc - v vic mua cc
hng ha bng phn vin tr c phn nh (mc ch s
dng). Trong cc phn tch thc tin, trc tin s c
lng tc ng ca tng vin tr nc ngoi i vi tng
chi tiu ca chnh ph xem xt liu vin tr nc ngoi
c nh hng ti n lc huy ng cc ngun lc ca nc
nhn vin tr hay khng. Sau s c lng tc ng ca
vin tr c phn nh dnh cho tng ngnh trong c cu chi
tiu ca chnh ph v sau cng l kim nh gi thit v
tnh bt phn nh.
Vi vn ng bin trong nghin cu ny, cc tc gi
ANH GIA VIN TR
144
c gim thiu n bng cch (a) s dng cc s liu v
gii ngn vin tr hu ht c th c xc nh trc; (b)
thm cc bin s c lp v kinh t, chnh tr v x hi ca
cc nc nhn vin tr trong phn tch hi quy.
Bng A3.1 v A3.2 ghi chp nhng kt qu hi quy
chnh ca nghin cu ny, hi quy 1 ch ra mt mi quan
h t l thun v c ngha v mt thng k gia t trng
tng chi tiu chnh ph trong GDP v t trng gii ngn
thc t ca ODA trong GDP. Hi quy ny cho bit rng
vin tr tng 1 la dn ti tng chi tiu chnh ph tng
0,95 cent. Trong mu ny khng c tc ng gim thu.
Tuy nhin, vic tng lng gii ngn cc khon tn dng u
i khuyn khch tng chi tiu ca chnh ph tng ln
nhiu. Hi quy 2 ch ra rng khi cc khon tn dng u i
tng ln 1 la th chi tiu chnh ph tng ln 1,24 la.
Nguyn nhn l gii ti sao cc khon tn dng u i li
c tc ng ln hn i vi chi tiu chnh ph so vi ODA
l cc khon tn dng u i i hi phi c vn i ng
ngha l chnh ph c chi 1 la vo mt hot ng
c quy nh th h s nhn c mt s nht nh tn
dng u i tng ng. Trong cc bin s i chng th t
trng nng nghip trong GDP - mt i lng v trnh
pht trin ca mt nc - l bin s duy nht c vai tr
quan trng v mt thng k trong c hai phng trnh. H
s m cho bit cc nc c t trng nng nghip trong
GDP cao c coi l cc nc pht trin, c chi tiu chnh
ph thp. Hi quy 3 - bao gm cc t trng chi tiu theo
ngnh - ch ra rng khong 3/4 ODA c s dng cho cc
chi tiu thng xuyn ca chnh ph. H s v ODA trong
hi quy 5 ch ra rng 1/4 vin tr cn li (sau khi trang tri
cho chi tiu thng xuyn) c dnh cho chi tiu xy
dng c bn.
Cc hi quy c ghi li trong bng A3.2 xem xt mi
lin h gia mc gii ngn tnh ca tn dng u i cho
mt ngnh c th v cc chi tiu cng cng trong ngnh
. i vi c su hi quy - cho cc ngnh gio dc, y t,
nng lng, nng nghip, giao thng v vn ti - h s ca
bin s chi tiu chnh ph tr vin tr trong GDP u ln
v th hin cch thc phn phi 1 la c b sung m
chnh ph c c t cc cc ngun tr ngun tn dng u
i. Hi quy 5 c mi quan h c ngha v mt thng k
v t l thun gia tn dng cho ngnh giao thng v vn
ti v chi tiu cng cng trong ngnh ny; h s ca bin
s vin tr l 0,92, v mt thng k h s ny gn bng 1.
Cc nh gi khc ch ra rng tn dng cho nng nghip v
nng lng cc nc ny c tnh cht bt phn nh.
Nhng i vi ngnh gio dc v y t cc gi thit khng
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
145
(null) quan trng u khng th b loi tr. C th l gii
vn ny rng da vo cc s liu sn c i vi cc
ngnh ny, mc kim nh ny khng mnh ph
nh bt c gi thit hp l no. Nhng nm gn y, cng
ng cc nh ti tr ang cng ngy cng lo ngi rng vin
tr pht trin ang c s dng cho cc chi tiu qun s.
Tuy vy, cc d liu t cc nc c nghin cu khng
ng h gi thit cho rng vin tr nc ngoi c chuyn
sang cc mc tiu qun s (hi quy 6). Kt qu ny cho
thy rng khng c mi lin h nht qun gia vin tr cho
mt ngnh v vic tng chi tiu cng cng cho ngnh ,
ngha l vin tr c xu hng tr thnh bt phn nh.
ANH GIA VIN TR
146
Bng A3.1. Tc ng ca vin tr nc ngoi i vi tng chi tiu, chi
thng xuyn v chi u t, 1971-1990
Hi quy
Tng chi tiu ca
chnh ph
Chi tiucng
cng thng
xuyn
Chi tiu u t
cng cng
Bin s ph thuc 1 2 3 4 5 6
Hng s 1,80
(0,29)
Chi tiu ca chnh ph (tr
vin tr) trong GDP
0,63
(15,33)
0,65
(14,44)
0,35
(9,15)
0,35
(8,80)
T trng ODA trong GDP 0,95 0,72 0,29
(5,82) (10,59) (4,65)
T trng tn dng u i
trong GDP
1,24
(4,08)
1,22
(8,97)
0,27
(1,19)
GDP u ngi thc t 0,01 0,01 -0,002 -0,004 0,002 0,002
(1,67) (1,10) (0,43) (1,05) (0,59) (0,80)
Chi tiu qun s trong
GDP nc lng ging
[tr (-1)]
0,33
(1,04)
0,43
(1,26)
-0,10
(0,76)
-0,53
(0,37)
0,08
(0,64)
0,04
(0,30)
S nm i hc trung bnh
ca lc lng lao ng
[tr (-1)]
-1,78
(1,04)
-1,12
(0,61)
3,74
(4,19)
2,92
(2,90)
-3,58
(4,27)
-1,95
(2,66)
T l t vong tr s sinh
[tr (-1)]
0,09 0,06 0,06 0,01 -0,05 -0,02
(1,51) (0,94) (2,19) (0,26) (1,91) (0,89)
T trng nng nghip
trong GDP [tr (-1)]
-0,63
(2,69)
-0,53
(2,09)
-0,12
(0,94)
-0,09
(0,63)
0,07
(0,59)
0,15
(1,55)
Ch s t do chnh tr v t
do cng dn
0,39
(0,64)
0,32
(0,50)
-0,17
(0,50)
-0,48
(1,35)
0,04
(0,12)
-0,03
(0,10)
R
2
c iu chnh 0,87 0,84 0,97 0,97 0,79 0,19
S quan st 128 128 89 89 89 89
M hnh
b
C
nh
C
nh
C
nh
C
nh
C
nh
Ngu
nhin
a. Bin s ph thuc tnh theo t trng trong GDP.
b. M hnh ni ln cc bin s gi cho quc gia trong hi quy i din cho tc ng c
nh hay ngu nhin ca m hnh.
Lu : Vi cc hi quy theo m hnh tc ng c nh, h s ca bin s gi khng th
hin. Gi tr t trong ngoc n.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
147
Bng A3.2. Tc dng ca t n dng u i i vi chi tiu ngnh ca ch nh
ph, 1971-1990
Hi quy
Gio dc Y t
Nng
lng
Nng
nghip
Giao
thng
vn ti
Quc
phng
Bin s ph thusc 1 2 3 4 5 6
Hng s 4,12 1,19 -0,63 -2,07 2,08 3,36
(1,49) (1,28) (0,51) (1,20) (3,44) (0,59)
Chi tiu cng cng (tr vin
tr) trong GDP
0,08
(4,94)
0,02
(4,32)
0,01
(1,99)
0,03
(2,75)
0,10
(5,57)
0,11
(5,10)
Tn dng ngnh (so vi GDP)
Gio dc 1,55 0,01 0,16 0,05 0,52 0,71
(1,08) (0,03) (0,27) (0,05) (0,31) (0,38)
Y t -3,21 -0,31 3,07 3,45 1,10 5,19
(0,73) (0,23) (1,16) (1,29) (0,21) (0,91)
Nng lng 0,71 0,12 0,36 0,21 0,17 0,02
(1,21) (1,84) (3,82) (1,59) (3,75) (0,07)
Nng nghip 0,56 0,19 0,09 -0,05 -0,01 0,21
(2,22) (2,45) (0,82) (0,32) (0,03) (0,65)
Giao thng vn ti 0,59 0,14 0,16 0,21 0,92 0,36
(3,01) (2,04) (1,92) (1,77) (3,98) (1,44)
Cc ngnh khc -0,05 0,02 0,01 0,06 0,04 -0,01
(0,15) (2,30) (0,79) (3,25) (1,09) (0,35)
GDP u ngi thc t 0,0003 -0,0001 0,001 0,0003 -0,0002 0,0002
(0,26) (0,15) (1,44) (0,45) (0,17) (0,15)
Chi tiu quc phng nc
lng ging [tr (-1)]
-0,12
(1,28)
0,003
(0,17)
0,02
(0,41)
-0,004
(0,12)
-0,04
(0,67)
0,01
(0,16)
S nm i hc trung bnh
ca lc lng lao ng [tr
(-1)]
-0,19
(0,68)
-0,08
(0,89)
-0,12
(0,99)
0,46
(2,55)
-1,65
(4,87)
-0,29
(0,75)
T l t vong tr s sinh
[tr (-1)]
0,01 -0,003 0,002 0,001 -0,03 -0,01
(1,37) (0,91) (0,53) (1,60) (2,38) (1,12)
T trng nng nghip trong
GDP [tr (-1)]
-0,5
(1,17)
0,008
(0,65)
0,02
(1,12)
-0,04
(0,18)
-0,08
(1,92)
-0,03
(0,56)
Ch s t do chnh tr v t
do cng dn
-0,17
(1,56)
-0,06
(1,92)
-0,06
(1,23)
-0,02
(0,32)
-0,07
(0,57)
-0,03
(0,2)
R
2
c iu chnh 0,04 0,24 0,18 0,09 0,89 0,34
S quan st 128 128 128 128 128 128
M hnh
b
Ngu
nhin
Ngu
nhin
Ngu
nhin
Ngu
nhin
Ngu
nhin
Ngu
nhin
Xem bng 1
a. Bin s ph thuc tnh theo t l trong GDP.
b. M hnh ni ln cc bin s gi cho quc gia trong hi quy i din cho tc ng c
nh hay ngu nhin ca m hnh.
Lu : Vi cc hi quy theo m hnh tc ng c nh, h s ca bin s gi khng th
hin. Gi tr t trong ngoc n.
ANH GIA VIN TR
148
Ph lc 4
Tc ng ca t do cng dn v ch
dn ch ti hot ng ca ch nh ph
nh gi "t do cng dn", nghin cu c tin
hnh l mt b phn ca chng trnh nghin cu v hiu
qu vin tr s dng mt tp hp cc ch tiu hin c do
cc nh khoa hc chnh tr a ra (Isham, Kaufmann v
Pritchett 1997). Hai ch tiu chung ph bin nht l ch s
t do cng dn Freedom House (1997), ch s ny xp
hng cc nc hng nm da trn mt thang 7 im cn c
vo 14 yu t nh gi nh t do bo ch, t do hi hp v
biu tnh, t do tn ngng v t do lp hi. Mt ch s
khc do Humana tng hp (1996) xp hng cc nc theo
thang im t 0 n 100 da trn s tn trng quyn con
ngi ca cc nc theo tha thun trong Cng c Lin
hp quc nm 1966 v quyn cng dn v quyn chnh tr.
nh gi "ch dn ch" cng c cc hnh thc
xp hng tng t do cc nh khoa hc chnh tr thit lp,
cc hnh thc ny ch trng vo mc bu c lnh o
ca mt nc (c hai ngnh lp php v hnh php). Cc
hnh thc ny bao gm c ch s chnh tr v ch dn
ch m Freedom House thit lp (1997) v cc ch s khc.
nh gi hot ng ca cc chnh ph chng ti
s dng mt mu cc Li sut kinh t (ERR) ca cc d n
ca Ngn hng Th gii, cc cng c ny cn mt s gii
thch c th. Bi v Ngn hng Th gii p dng cng cc
quy trnh ging nhau trong vic la chn v thc hin cc
d n tt c cc nc, nn s chnh lch v li sut gia
cc nc l mt du hiu v mc hiu qu ca chnh
ph trong vic thc hin cc d n cng cng.
nh gi tc ng ca cc bin s v qun l nh
nc chng ti bt u bng vic xc nh c s v cc
yu t quyt nh Li sut kinh t (ERR) ca Isham v
Kaufmann (ti liu sp xut bn), gm cc bin s chnh
sch (nh mc thu li th trng ch en, thng d ngn
sch), cc bin s kinh t (thay i iu kin gi thng
mi, tng trng GDP, h s vn trn lao ng) mt s
bin s gi cho s phc tp ca cc d n v cc bin gi
cho ngnh c d n hot ng. i vi cc bin s thay i
theo thi gian, chng ti s dng gi tr bnh qun trong
ba nm trc thi im d n c nh gi (thng l cc
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
149
nm hon thnh d n). Chng ti th nghim trong
trng hp c cc bin s gi v vng v trng hp khng
c cc bin s gi ny. Bng A4.1 cho thy cc kt qu ca
trng hp c bn c c lng bng cch s dng quy
trnh Tobit loi tr s gim st gi tr ca bin s c
lp (li sut kinh t b gim st cn -5).
Sau chng ti thm yu t t do cng dn vo
phng trnh ny. Cc bin s t do cng dn c tc ng
t l thun v c ngha quan trng v mt thng k ti
hot ng ca cc d n chnh ph do Ngn hng Th gii
cp vn (Bng A4. 2). Hai bin s to ra cc kt qu
nh nhau v cht v cc c lng gi rng vic ci thin
t do cng dn t mc ti nht ti mc tt nht s ci thin
mc sinh li ca cc d n u t ca chnh ph ln
khong t 8 im phn trm (ch s Freedom House) n
22 im phn trm (ch s Humana) (li nhun bnh qun
trong mu nghin cu l 16).
Hai kt qu th v khc thu c t hi quy ny
vch ra rng tc ng ny phn nh nh hng ca ting
ni ngi dn i vi hot ng ca chnh ph. Th nht,
cc ch tiu v xung t dn s (nh ni lon, biu tnh v
nh cng mang tnh cht chnh tr) c quan h t l thun
vi li sut kinh t ca cc d n Ngn hng Th gii,
nhng s tng quan mt phn ny c gii thch bng
thc t l vic th hin nhng bt ng ny cao hn cc
nc c t do cng dn cao hn. Mt khi ta coi t do cng
dn cao hn, iu s loi b bt c tc ng c lp
no ca xung t dn s, cho thy rng t do cng dn s
th hin ting ni ln hn ca ngi dn v cui cng
ting ni ny l mt ng lc cho cc chnh ph ci thin
hot ng ca mnh.
Th hai, mt khi t do cng dn c a vo cc hi
quy v hiu qu d n th khng cn tc ng g hn ca
bin s bu c dn ch. Do vy, tuy ch bu c dn ch
v t do cng dn c lin kt mt cch cht ch trn thc
t cng nh trong s liu nhng knh nh hng quyt
nh vn l t do cng dn ch khng phi l c ch chnh
tr n thun trong vic la chn lnh o.
Bng A4.1. c im c bn ca cc nhn t phi qun l quyt nh
ANH GIA VIN TR
150
ti li sut kinh t ca cc d n ch nh ph

c lng khng c
cc bin s gi v
vng
c lng c cc
bin s gi v
vng
Bin ngoi sinh
H s vn/lao ng -1,09 -1,66
(0,067)
a
(0,060)
a
Bin gi cho s phc tp ca d n -4,29 -4,23
(0,017)
b
(0,016)
b
C sc iu kin thng mi 0,0015 0,001
(0,889) (0,922)
Bin s chnh sch
Mc chnh lch ca th trng ch
en
-0,046 -0,037
(0,000)
b
(0,000)
b
Thng d ngn sch 0,197 0,266
(0,149) (0,063)
a
Tng trng GDP 0,193 0,013
(0,357) (0,949)
Bin s gi v vng
ng
-3,33
(0,154)
M Latinh v Carib -4,74
(0,072)
a
Chu u, Trung ng v Bc Phi
-4,93
(0,100)
a
Nam Sahara chu Phi -10,8
(0,000)
b
Bin s gi v ngnh
Nng nghip 0,027 1,39
(0,992) (0,602)
Nng lng v dch v cng ch -3,92 -3,18
(0,136) (0,220)
Giao thng v du lch 3,85 6,24
(0,137) (0,016)
b
Thnh th 10,1 11,9
(0,011)
b
(0,003)
b
a. Xc sut <10%.
b. Xc sut <5%.
Lu : Chng ti nu mc xc sut xem h s c bng 0 hay khng ch khng
nu gi tr t. Mc xc sut p l mc gi thit khng (null) b loi b, do
nu mc xc sut p<5% c ngha l gi thit khng b loi b mc 5%. Mc
xc sut p trong ngoc n. Mu c 761 quan st.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
151
Bng A4.2. Tc ng ca cc ch tiu v t do cng dn i vi li
sut kinh t ca cc d n ch nh ph, c i chng vi cc bin s
v kinh t v d n
Ch s
Khng c bin s
vng
C bin s vng
Ch s t do cng dn
Freedom House, 1978-1987
1,95 1,32
(0,000)
a
(0,047)
a
Ch s Humana, 1982-1985 0,251 0,256
(0,009)
a
(0,025)
a
a. Mc xc sut <5%
Lu : Kch thc mu 649 cho ch s t do cng dn Freedom House v 236 cho
ch s Humana.
ANH GIA VIN TR
152
Ph lc 5
nh gi tc ng
ca nghin cu phn t ch
Tuy c rt nhiu phn tch v tc ng ca vin tr ni
chung, nhng rt t ngi ch n vic iu tra tc ng
ca cc loi hnh vin tr khc nhau v c cu vin tr. c
bit quan trng l mi quan h gia nhng chuyn giao ti
chnh v cc nghin cu phn tch. S phn bit ny v n lc
nhm o lng tc ng v li sut kinh t i vi cc dch
v phn tch c bit cn thit bi - trong bi cnh cc nc
ang pht trin cng ngy cng c kh nng tip cn cao hn
vi cc ngun ti chnh khng u i - mi ngi cho rng
li th so snh ca cc t chc quc t nh Ngn hng Th
gii l vic cung cp cc dch v "phi tn dng" ny.
i vi Ngn hng Th gii cc nghin cu phn tch
bao gm hai lnh vc khc nhau. Cc nghin cu quy m
quc gia a ra mt bo co tng hp v tnh hnh kinh t
v cc trin vng, cng nh cc bo co theo ch nh
nh gi ngho kh, nh gi chi tiu cng cng v cc
bo co khc u c n cc t vn v chnh sch ca Ngn
hng Th gii. Nhng t vn ny c b sung bi cc
nghin cu theo ngnh nh nhng nghin cu v giao
thng, y t v gio dc - cc nghin cu ny to ra khun
kh cho vic thc hin cc hot ng cho cc ngnh ny
vay. Vic t chc nghin cu a dng v quy m ln nh
th khng phi l khng tn km - chi tiu hng nm cho
phn tch v t vn kinh t ln n trn 100 triu la.
Cc vn , cch tip cn v d liu
Ba cu hi then cht c cp trong nghin cu ca
Deininger, Squire v Basu (1998) l: (1) phi chng Cc
nghin cu kinh t v nghin cu ngnh (ESW) c nng cao
cht lng d n gp phn tch cc ti pht trin; (2) liu
vic phn b li thi gian lao ng ca cc nhn vin t cc
cng vic chun b v gim st cc d n c th sang ESW
c nng cao cht lng tng th ca cc d n khng; (3)
liu cc mc tiu khc, nh s nh i gia s lng v
cht lng tn dng c gip phn b cc ngun nhn lc
khan him hay khng. nh gi cc phng trnh gin c
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
153
v cht lng d n (cng nh nhu cu ngun lc trong vic
chun b v gim st cc d n) lun t hm mc tiu ca
nh qun l to ra mt c s th nghim thc tin v
nhng gi thit ny. Thng tin v thc hin d n c thit
lp da trn c s xp hng ca V nh gi hot ng ca
Ngn hng Th gii hoc v mc sinh li c tnh sau khi d
n hon thnh (i vi cc d n c th lm cc c tnh
ny) hoc cch xp hng n gin t/khng t. Cch xp
hng u s dng cho 1.367 d n v cch xp hng sau cho
3.957 d n tuy vic thiu d liu trong cc u vo ca
nghin cu ESW c lm gim kch thc mu i cht.
Kt qu
Cch tip cn ny thy rng ESW c mt s tc ng t
l thun v quan trng ti cc i lng khc nhau xc
nh cht lng cc d n Ngn hng Th gii. Theo bng
A5.1 khi thi gian dnh cho ESW tng ln 1 tun cng vi
chi ph tng hp (hnh chnh, i li, v.v.) di 3.000 la
trc khi d n bt u c mi lin h vi t 0,02 n 0,04
im phn trm li sut kinh t ca cc d n, tng ng
vi mc tng gi tr hin ti thc t ca d n khong t
12.000 la n 25.000 la - nh vy 1 la cho ESW to
ra t 4 n 8 la tc ng n pht trin. Nu mt tun
cng dnh cho ESW em li kt qu cho nhiu d n th
c tnh ny r rng cha th hin ht. Thc cht, vic
nghin cu tc ng ESW i vi ton b chng trnh tn
dng cho mt nc ch ra rng 1 la ca ESW to ra t 12
n 15 la tc ng pht trin. Thm ch con s ny cng
cha ni ln c nhng ch li khng lin quan ti cc d
n ca nghin cu ESW- v d nh tc ng ti vic xy
dng v phn tch chnh sch mt s nc c th.
Mt cu hi pht sinh t cch phn tch ny l liu s
phn b cc ngun lc gia cc hnh thc h tr khc nhau
hp l cha. Gi nh rng ngun nhn lc l bt phn
nh v mt thi gian v gia nhng mc ch s dng th
c th hy vng rng s ng gp cn bin ca ESW i vi
cht lng tn dng thp hn s ng gp ca dch v tn
dng (chun b v gim st), bi v - ngc li vi cc dch
v tn dng - ESW c th c cc tc ng ngoi nhng tc
ng trc tip ti tn dng. Thc cht ESW c tin hnh
nhm to ra mt c s cho vic a ra cc t vn v chnh
sch cho cc chnh ph v khng nht thit phi lin h
chng vi mt d n hoc mt chng trnh tn dng c
th. Tuy vy, Deininger, Squire v Basu tm ra kt qu
ANH GIA VIN TR
154
ngc li - ESW c tc ng t l thun v c tnh h
thng i vi cht lng chng trnh tn dng, trong khi
c cng tc chun b v gim st u khng ng vai tr
quan trng. iu ny gi rng vic phn b li thi gian
lm vic ca nhn vin t cc dch v tn dng sang cc
hot ng ESW s tng cht lng ca chng trnh tn
dng. Ph hp vi iu ny, chng ti thy rng cc nhm
trng (task manager) cp d n c th gim thi gian lm
vic dnh cho cc dch v tn dng i 2,5 tun ng thi
tng 1 tun lm vic cho hot ng ESW. Chng ti suy ra
rng ESW gip cc nhn vin xc nh v h tr cc
phng n u t mi (tng s lng cc d n kh thi) v
gip thit k cc d n tt hn (ci thin cht lng cc d
n hin d kin trong chng trnh u t). Ngc li,
chun b v gim st c th ci thin cht lng mt d n
(bt k tt hay xu) ch sau khi d n hnh thnh.
D cc kt qu trc y ch ra rng ESW cao hn s
ci thin cht lng ca chng trnh tn dng, th vi mt
iu kin ngun lc cho trc, vic chuyn nhn cng t
cc dch v tn dng sang ESW c th s lm gim tng
lng tn dng cp cho cc nc. Chng ti thy rng ng
l nh vy - cc dch v tn dng c hiu qu hn 40-50%
so vi ESW trong vic tng tng lng cam kt. Nhng nu
vic gii ngn - chuyn giao ngun lc - l bin s theo li
sut, chng ti thy rng cc nh qun l l ra c th
tng ng thi c cht lng v s lng tn dng bng
cch dch chuyn cc ngun lc t cc dch v tn dng
sang cc hot ng ESW. iu ny - cng vi kt lun cho
rng vic u t vo hot ng ESW l cha di gc
cht lng d n - gi rng lng vn cam kt l
mt mc tiu b sung nh hng cho vic phn cng li
cc ngun lc nhn vin. Nhng kt qu ny em li mt
s hiu bit v s nh i gia s lng v cht lng.
Phn tch ny ch ra rng nhn chung mt nh qun l hin
nay bng quan gia vic gim gi tr hin ti rng ca mt
chng trnh tn dng i 2 triu la v vic tng lng tn
dng thm 4 triu la. Nu nh gi ny ni chung l
chnh xc, n ch ra rng cc nh qun l sn sng chp
nhn gim cht lng chng trnh i ng k tng mt
lng vn cam kt rt nh (2%) so vi quy m trung bnh
ca chng trnh.
Bng A5.1. Tc ng ca ESW i vi kt qu d
ANH GIA VIN TR
Ph lc
155
n v mc sinh li kinh t
Bin s ph thuc Kt qu d n Mc sinh li
ESW 0,090
b
4,229
c
(0,407) (1,664)
Thng d khu vc
Nh nc
0,719
(0,963)
14,974
(53,654)
Lm pht -0,037
a
1,917
(0,021) (10,248)
Mc m ca 0,739
c
-3,495
(0,018) (21,888)
S d n 873 302
R
2
/LL -534,62 0,142
a. Kim nh mc 10%
b. Kim nh mc 5%
c. Kim nh mc 1%
Lu : H s v sai s chun nhn vi 100. Bin s gi cho ngnh c a vo tuy
khng th hin ra. Sai s chun trong ngoc n.
ANH GIA VIN TR
Danh mc sch tham kho
157
Alesina, Alberto v David Dollar, 1998, Ai cung cp vin tr cho ai v ti sao? (Who
Gives Aid to Whom and Why?) Ti liu cng tc NBER 6612, Cc nghin cu
kinh t quc gia, Cambridge, Mass.
Amemiya, T. 1978. c lng m hnh probit tng qut cho h phng trnh (The
Estimation of a Simultaneous Equation Generalized Probit Model.) Econometrica
46.
Bauer, P.T. 1971. Nhng bt ng v pht trin (Dissent on Development), London:
Weidenfeld v Nicolson.
Berg, Elliott. 1993. i mi t duy v hp tc k thut: ci cch cng tc xy dng nng
lc chu Phi (Rethinking Technical Cooperation: Reforms for Capacity Building
in Africa). New York: UNDP.
Birdsall, Nancy v Francois Orivel. 1996. Nhu cu gio dc tiu hc nng thn Mali:
c nn tng hc ph? (Demand for Primary Schooling in Rural Mali: Should
User Fees Be Increased?) Kinh t hc gio dc 4(3).
Boone, Peter. 1994. Tc ng ca vin tr nc ngoi i vi tit kim v tng trng.
(The Impact of Foreign Aid on Savings and Growth.), Trng Kinh t London.
Branson, William v Carl Jayarajah. 1995. iu chnh c cu v iu chnh ngnh: kinh
nghim ca Ngn hng Th gii, 1980-1992 (Structural and Sectoral Adjustment:
World Bank Experience, 1980-1992). Nghin cu nh gi hot ng ca Ngn
hng Th gii. Oasinhtn D.C.
Bruno, Michael, Martin Ravallion v Lyn Squire. 1998. Cng bng v tng trng
cc nc ang pht trin: quan im c v mi v cc vn chnh sch.
(Equity and Growth in Developing Countries: Old and New Perspectives on the
Policy Issues.) trch trong V. Tanzi v K. Chu, ch bin, Phn phi thu nhp v
tng trng cht lng cao (Income Distribution and High-Quality Growth).
Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Burnside, Craig v David Dollar. 1997. Vin tr, chnh sch v tng trng. (Aid,
Policies, and Growth. ). Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1777. Ngn
hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
. 1998. Vin tr, ch khuyn khch v gim ngho. (Aid, the Incentive
Regime, and Poverty Reduction.) Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1937.
Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Campos, Ed v Sanjay Pradhan. 1996. Th ch ngn sch v kt qu chi tiu: buc
chnh ph phi c trch nhim vi hot ng ngn sch. (Budgetary Institutions
and Expenditure Outcomes: Binding Government to Fiscal Performance.). Ti
liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1646. Ngn hng Th gii, V nghin cu
chnh sch, Oasinhtn D.C.
Carapetis, Steve, Hernn Levy v Terje Wolden. 1991. Sng kin duy tu bo dng
ng b: xy dng nng lc i mi chnh sch (The Road Maintenance
ANH GIA VIN TR
nh gi vin tr: Khi no c tc dng, khi no khng, v ti sao
158
Initiative: Building Capacity for Policy Reform). Ti liu hi tho ca EDI.
Oasinhtn D.C.: Ngn hng Th gii.
Cashel-Cordo, P. v S. Craig. 1990. Tc ng i vi khu vc nh nc ca vic dch
chuyn ngun lc quc t. (The Public Sector Impact of International Resource
Transfers.). Tp ch Kinh t pht trin 32(3).
Cassen, Robert. 1994. Vin tr c tc dng khng? (Does Aid Work?). Oxford:
Clarendon.
Chang, Charles, Eduardo Fernandez-Arias v Lus Serven. 1998. o lng dng vin
tr: mt phng php mi. (Measuring Aid Flows: A New Approach.). Ngn
Collier, Paul. 1997. Tht bi ca iu kin rng buc. (The Failure of
Conditionality.) trong C. Gwin v J. Nelson, ch bin, Cch nhn v vin tr v
pht trin (Perspectives on Aid and Development). Oasinhtn D.C.: Hi ng pht
trin hi ngoi.
Collier, Paul v David Dollar. 1998. Phn b vin tr v gim ngho. (Aid Allocation
and Poverty Reduction.). Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu pht trin,
Oasinhtn D.C.
Deininger, Klaus, Lyn Squire v Swati Basu. 1998. Phn tch kinh t c ci thin cht
lng h tr nc ngoi khng? (Does Economic Analysis Improve the Quality
of Foreign Assistance?). Tp ch kinh t Ngn hng Th gii, 12(3).
Devarajan, Shantayanan, Vinaya Swaroop v Heng-fu Zou. 1996. C cu chi tiu cng
cng v tng trng kinh t. (The Composition of Public Expenditure and
Economic Growth.). Tp ch Kinh t tin t 37.
Dollar, David v William Easterly. 1998. i tm cha kho: vin tr, u t v chnh
sch chu Phi. (The Search for the Key: Aid, Investment, and Policies in
Africa). Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Dollar, David, Jennie Litvack v Paul Glewwe, ch bin 1998. Phc li h gia nh v
qu Vit Nam (Household Welfare and Vietnam's Transition). Oasinhtn
D.C.: Ngn hng Th gii.
Dollar, David v Jakob Svensson. 1998. Gii thch thnh cng v tht bi ca cc
chng trnh iu chnh c cu? (What Explains the Success or Failure of
Structural Adjustment Programs?). Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1938.
Easterly, William. 1997. Bng ma b p thm ht. (The Ghost of Financing Gap.).
Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1807. Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin
cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Easterly, William, Michael Kremer, Lant Pritchett v Lawrence Summers. 1993. Do
chnh sch tt hay do vn may? Kt qu tng trng quc gia v nhng c sc tm
thi. (Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary
Shocks.). Tp ch Kinh t tin t 32(3).
Easterly, William v Sergio T. Rebelo. 1993. Chnh sch ti chnh v tng trng kinh
t: kho st thc t. (Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical
Investigation.) Tp ch Kinh t tin t 32(3).
ANH GIA VIN TR
159
Edgren, Gus. 1996. Thch thc i vi quan h vin tr. (A Challenge to the Aid
Relationship.), Ti SIDA (1996).
Ehrenpreis, Dag. 1997. Khun kh ton cu ang thay i. (The Changing Global
Framework.). Ti SIDA (1997a).
En Xanvao, B Gio dc. 1995. EDUCO hc v dy (EDUCO Learns and Teaches).
San Salvador: Algiers Impresores, SA de CV.
Fallon, Peter R. v Luiz Pereira da Silva. 1995. Nhn thc cc hn ch ca th trng lao
ng: cnh tranh gia nh ti tr v chnh ph v ngun nhn lc Mdmbch.
(Recognizing Labor Market Constraints: Government-Donor Competition for
Manpower in Mozambique.). Trong Lindauer v Nunberg (1995).
Feyzioglu, Tarhan, Vinaya Swaroop v Min Zhu. 1998. Phn tch s liu tnh bt phn
nh ca vin tr nc ngoi. (A Panel Data Analysis of the Fungibility of
Foreign Aid.). Tp ch Kinh t Ngn hng Th gii 12(1).
Filmer, Deon, Jeffrey Hammer v Lant Pritchett. 1998. Chnh sch y t cc nc
ngho: nhng mt xch yu. (Health Policy in Poor Countries: Weak Links in
the Chain.). Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1874. Ngn hng Th gii,
Nhm nghin cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Filmer, Deon v Lant Pritchett. 1997. T l t vong tr em v chi tiu cng cng dnh
cho y t: tin c tm quan trng th no? (Child Mortality and Public Spending
on Health: How Much Does Money Matter?). Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh
sch 1864. Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Fischer, Stanley. 1993. Vai tr ca cc yu t kinh t v m trong tng trng. (The
Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth.). Tp ch Kinh t tin t 32(3).
Fraker, Thomas, Alberto Martini v James Ohls. 1995. Tc ng ca h thng tem
phiu lng thc i vi chi tiu cho lng thc: nh gi nhng pht hin ca
bn m hnh. (The Effect of Food Stamp Cashout on Food Expenditures: An
Assessment of the Findings from Four Demonstrations.). Tp ch Ngun nhn
lc 30(4).
Freedom House. 1997. T do trn th gii: Quyn chnh tr v t do cng dn (Freedom
in the World: Political Rights and Civil Liberties). New York.
Haltiwanger, John v Manisha Singh. Sp xut bn. Bng chng lin quc gia v tnh
thn trng ca khu vc nh nc. (Cross-Country Evidence on Public Sector
Retrench-ment.). Tp ch Kinh t Ngn hng Th gii.
Hanushek, Eric v Dongwook Kim. 1995. Hc vn, cht lng lc lng lao ng v
tng trng kinh t. (Schooling, Labor Force Quality, and Economic Growth.)
Ti liu cng tc NBER 5399. Cc Nghin cu kinh t quc gia, Cambridge,
Mass.
Heggie, Ian. 1994. Qun l v cp ti chnh cho ng b: k hoch ci cch
(Management and Financing of Roads: An Agenda for Reform). Ngn hng Th
gii Bo co k thut 275. Oasinhtn D.C.
Hilton, Rita. 1990. Thu hi chi ph v huy ng ngun lc trong nc: nh gi cc
bin php khuyn khch h thng thu nng Npan. (Cost Recovery and Local
Resource Mobilization: An Examination of Incentives in Irrigation Systems in
ANH GIA VIN TR
160
Nepal.). Burlington Vt.: Tham gia vo pht trin nng thn.
. 1992. Khuyn khch th ch huy ng ngun lc: phn tch cc d n thu
nng Npan. (Institutional Incentives for Resource Mobilization: An Analysis
of Irrigation Schemes in Nepal.). Tp ch Chnh tr kinh vin 4(3).
Hirschman, A. 1967. Quan st cc d n pht trin (Development Projects Observed).
Qu th k XX. New York.
Hulten, Charles R. 1996. u t c s h tng v tng trng kinh t: cch s dng
hiu qu quan trng hn khi lng. (Infrastructure Capital and Economic
Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important than How Much You
Have). Ti liu cng tc NBER 5847. Cc Nghin cu kinh t quc gia,
Cambridge, Mass.
Humana, Charles. 1996. Cm nang v quyn con ngi th gii (World Human Rights
Guide). London: Hodder v Stroughton.
Isham, Jonathan v Daniel Kaufmann, sp xut bn. L l hay b lng qun ca ci
cch chnh sch: tc ng n d n. (The Forgotten Rationale for Policy
Reform: The Impact on Projects.). Tp ch Kinh t ra hng qu.
Isham, Jonathan, Daniel Kaufmann v Lant Pritchett. 1997. T do cng dn, dn ch
v kt qu ca cc d n ca chnh ph. (Civil Liberties, Democracy, and the
Performance of Government Projects.). Tp ch Kinh t Ngn hng Th gii
11(2).
Isham, Jonathan, Deepa Narayan v Lant Pritchett. 1995. S tham gia ca ngi dn c
ci thin cht lng hot ng khng? Hnh thnh quan h nhn qu vi s liu
ch quan. (Does Participation Improve Performance? Establishing Causality
with Subjective Data.). Tp ch Kinh t Ngn hng Th gii 9(2).
Ishikawa, Shigeru. 1960. Pht trin kinh t theo quan im chu (Economic
Development in Asian Perspective). Tokyo: Kinokuniya.
. 1978. S dng lao ng trong nng nghip chu (Labor Absorption in Asian
Agriculture). Bng Cc: ILO-ARTEP.
Jha, Shikha v Vinaya Swaroop. 1997. Tc ng ti chnh ca vin tr: nghin cu tnh
hung n . (Fiscal Effects of Foreign Aid: A Case Study of India.). Ngn
Jimenez, Emmanuel v Yasuyuki Sawada. 1998. Trng hc cng ng c tc dng
hay khng? nh gi chng trnh EDUCO ca En Xanvao. (Do Community-
Managed Schools Work? An Evaluation of El Salvadors EDUCO Program.). Ti
liu cng tc s 8 nh gi tc ng ca ci cch gio dc. Ngn hng Th gii,
Nhm nghin cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Jones, William. 1995. Ngn hng Th gii v thu li (The World Bank and Irrigation).
Nghin cu nh gi hot ng ca Ngn hng Th gii. Oasinhtn D.C.
Killick, Tony. 1991. Hiu qu pht trin ca vin tr chu Phi. (The Developmental
Effectiveness of Aid to Africa.). Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 646.
Ngn hng Th gii, V Kinh t quc t, Oasinhtn D.C.
ANH GIA VIN TR
161
Kim, Jooseop, Harold Alderman v Peter Orazem. 1998. Tr cp trng t thc c lm
ngi ngho i hc nhiu hn khng? Chng trnh hc bng thnh th Quetta.
(Can Private Schools Subsidies Increase Schooling for the Poor? The Quetta
Urban Fellowship Program.). Ti liu cng tc 11 nh gi tc ng ca ci cch
gio dc. Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Knack, Stephen v Philip Keefer. 1995. Th ch v hot ng kinh t: kim nghim
lin quc gia s dng cc thc o th ch khc nhau. (Institutions and
Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional
Measures.). Kinh t v chnh tr 7(3).
Krueger, Anne O., Constantine Michalopoulos v Vernon Ruttan. 1989. Vin tr v
pht trin (Aid and Development). Baltimore v London: Johns Hopkins Press.
Levy, Victor. 1987. Vin tr u i c lm tng t l u t cc nc thu nhp thp?
(Does Concessionary Aid Lead to Higher Investment Rates in Low-Income
Countries? ). Tp ch Kinh t v Thng k. 69(1)
Li, Hongyi, Lyn Squire v Heng-fu Zou. 1998. L gii cc bin thin quc t v bin
thin lin thi trong bt cng v thu nhp. (Explaining International and
Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality.). Tp ch Kinh t 108.
Lindauer, David v Barbara Nunberg, ch bin. 1995. Cng c li nh nc: ci cch
ch tin lng v vic lm chu Phi (Rehabilitating Government: Pay and
Employment Reform in Africa). Oasinhtn D.C.: Ngn hng Th gii.
Lindert, Peter. 1994. Tng chi tiu x hi, 1880-1930. (The Rise of Social Spending,
18801930.). Kho st lch s kinh t 31(1).
Little, I.M.D. v J.M. Clifford. 1965. Vin tr quc t (International Aid). London:
George Allen v Unwin.
Litvack, Jennie v Claude Bodart. 1993. Ph ngi s dng v cht lng ng ngha
vi kh nng tip cn dch v y t tt hn: kt qu ca kim nghim thc t
Camrun. (User Fees Plus Quality Equals Improved Access to Health Care:
Results of a Field Experiment in Cameroon.). Khoa hc x hi v y t 37(3).
Ljunggren, Borje. 1993. Kinh t th trng trong ch cng sn: Ci cch Vit Nam,
Lo v Campuchia. (Market Economies under Communist Regimes: Reform in
Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.). Trong B. Ljunggren, ch bin, Thch thc ci cch
ng Dng. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Lopez, Cecilia. 1997. Tc ng ca vin tr nc ngoi i vi chu M La tinh, 1972-
1992 (Impacto de la Ayuda Externa en America Latina, 1972-1992). Bogot:
Tercer Mundo.
Lucas, Robert. 1988. V c ch pht trin kinh t. (On the Mechanics of Economic
Development.). Tp ch Kinh t tin t 22(1).
Marshall, Katherine. 1997. Tm nhn v quan h trong th gii vin tr quc t: din
n i tc Kairaba gia Gmbia v Ngn hng Th gii. (Vision and
Relationships in the International Aid World: The GambiaWorld Bank Kairaba
Partnership Forum.). Ti liu tho lun HIID 602. Vin pht trin quc t
ANH GIA VIN TR
162
Harvard, Cambridge, Mass.
Mauro, Paul. 1995. Tham nhng v tng trng. (Corruption and Growth.). Tp ch
Kinh t ra hng qu 110.
McCarthy, Desmond. 1995. nh gi cng tc chi tiu cng cng. (Review of Public
Expenditure Work.). Ngn hng Th gii, V Nghin cu chnh sch, Oasinhtn
D.C.
Moffitt, Robert. 1989. nh gi vic tr cp bng hin vt: tem phiu lng thc.
(Estimating the Value of an In-Kind Transfer: The Case of Food Stamps.).
Econometrica 57(2).
Mosley, Paul. 1987a. iu kin rng buc nh mt th tc m phn: cho vay iu
chnh c cu, 1980-1986. (Conditionality as a Bargaining Process: Structural
Adjustment Lending, 1980-86.). Cc bo co ca Trng i hc Princeton v
ti chnh quc t 168. i hc Princeton, Princeton, N.J.
. 1987b. Vin tr nc ngoi: s bnh vc v ci cch (Overseas Aid: Its
Defence and Reform). Brighton, England: Wheatsheaf.
Mosley, Paul, Jane Harrigan v John Toye. 1995. Vin tr v quyn lc (Aid and
Power). Tp 1. Ti bn ln 2, London: Routledge.
Musgrove, Philip. 1996. Vai tr ca nh nc v t nhn trong y t: L thuyt v m
hnh ti tr (Public and Private Roles in Health: Theory and Financing Patterns).
Ngn hng Th gii Ti liu tho lun 339. Oasinhtn D.C.
Narayan, Deepa. 1995. Tc dng ca s tham gia ca cng ng: Thc t t 121 d n
cp nc nng thn (The Contribution of People's Participation: Evidence from
121 Rural Water Supply Projects). Bo co bt thng s 1 v pht trin bn vng
v mi trng. Oasinhtn D.C.: Ngn hng Th gii.
North, Douglass. 1990. Th ch, thay i th ch v hot ng kinh t (Institutions,
Institutional Change and Economic Performance). Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
OECD (T chc hp tc v pht trin kinh t). 1998. Hp tc pht trin: Bo co nm
1997 (Development Cooperation: 1997 Report). Paris.
. 1996. Kin to th k XXI: vai tr ca hp tc pht trin (Shaping the 21st
Century: The Role of Development Cooperation). Paris.
. 1992. Nguyn l ca vin tr hiu qu (Principles for Effective Aid). Paris.
OECF (Qu hp tc kinh t hi ngoi) Nht Bn. 1996. Vai tr ca OECF ti nm 2010
(The Role of OECF toward 2010). Tokyo.
OECF ca Nht Bn v Ngn hng Th gii. 1998. Quan im mi v hp tc pht trin
cho th k XXI (A New Vision of Development Cooperation for the 21st Century).
Kt lun hi tho t chc ti Tokyo, 9/1997. Tokyo.
Ostrom, Elinor. 1996. ng lc, quy tc tr chi v pht trin. (Incentives, Rules of
the Game, and Development.) Trong Michael Bruno v Boris Pleskovic, Hi tho
hng nm ca Ngn hng Th gii v Kinh t hc pht trin 1995 (Annual World
Bank Conference on Development Economics 1995). Oasinhtn D.C.: Ngn hng
Th gii.
ANH GIA VIN TR
163
Pack, Howard v Janet Rothenberg Pack. 1990, Vin tr nc ngoi c bt phn nh
khng? Trng hp Innsia. (Is Foreign Aid Fungible? The Case of
Indonesia.). Tp ch Kinh t 100 (thng 3).
. 1993. Vin tr nc ngoi v vn tnh bt phn nh. (Foreign Aid and
the Question of Fungibility.). Tp ch Kinh t v Thng k 75(2).
. 1996. Vin tr nc ngoi v nhng cng thng v ngn sch. (Foreign Aid
and Fiscal Stress.). i hc Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.
Pritchett, Lant. 1996. Hy thn trng: chi ph ca u t cng cng khng ch l gi tr
ca vn u t. (Mind Your Ps and Qs: The Cost of Public Investment Is Not
the Value of Public Capital.). Ti liu cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1660.
. 1998. M hnh tng trng kinh t: i, cao nguyn, ni v bnh nguyn.
(Patterns of Economic Growth: Hills, Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains.). Ti liu
cng tc nghin cu chnh sch 1947. Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu
pht trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Ranis, Gustav. 1995. V tn dng theo chnh sch v gii ngn nhanh. (On Fast-
Disbursing Policy-Based Loans.). Trng i hc Yale, Khoa Kinh t, New
Haven.
Ravallion, Martin v Shaohua Chen. 1997. S liu iu tra mi cho chng ta bit g v
nhng thay i mi y trong phn phi v ngho i? (What Can New Survey
Data Tell Us about Recent Changes in Distribution and Poverty?). Tp ch Kinh
t Ngn hng Th gii 11(2).
Riddell, Roger. 1996. Vin tr trong th k XXI (Aid in the 21st Century). Ti liu tho
lun ODS. UNDP, Vn phng nghin cu pht trin. New York: Lin hp quc.
Riddell, R.C., A. Bebbington v L. Peck. 1995. Khuyn khch pht trin gin tip: nh
gi tc ng pht trin do h tr ca chnh ph cho cc t chc phi chnh ph
Thu in (Promoting Development by Proxy: An Evaluation of the Development
Impact of Government Support to Swedish NGOs). Bo co nh gi ca SIDA
1995/2. Stockholm, C quan pht trin quc t Thu in.
Rodrik, Dani. 1996. Tm hiu ci cch chnh sch kinh t. (Understanding Economic
Policy Reform.). Tp ch Ti liu kinh t 34(1).
Sachs, Jeffrey. 1994. Cuc sng trong bi cnh kinh t khn cp. (Life in the
Economic Emergency Room. ). Trong Williamson (1994).
Sachs, Jeffrey v Andrew Warner. 1995. Ci cch kinh t v qu trnh hi nhp ton
cu. (Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration.). Ti liu ca
Brookings v hot ng kinh t, s 1.
SIDA (C quan pht trin quc t Thu in). 1996. L thuc vo vin tr (Aid
Dependency). Stockholm.
. 1997a. Hp tc pht trin trong th k XXI (Development Cooperation in the
21st Century). Stockholm.
. 1997b. SIDA hng ra pha trc (SIDA Looks Forward). Stockholm.
Summers, Robert v Alan Heston. 1991. Bng s liu th gii ca Penn, th h V.
(The Penn World Table, Version V.). Tp ch Kinh t ra hng qu 106.
ANH GIA VIN TR
164
Swaroop, Vinaya. 1997. Kinh nghim nh gi li chi tiu cng cng (Experience
with Public Expenditure Reviews.). Ngn hng Th gii, Nhm nghin cu pht
trin, Oasinhtn D.C.
Tan, Jee-Peng v Alain Mingat. 1992. Gio dc chu : Nghin cu so snh v chi
ph v ngun ti chnh (Education in Asia: A Comparative Study of Cost and
Financing). Nghin cu vng a l v ngnh ca Ngn hng Th gii. Oasinhtn
D.C.
Tendler, Judith. 1975. Bn trong vin tr nc ngoi (Inside Foreign Aid). Baltimore:
Johns Hopkins Press.
Thomas, Vinod, Ajay Chhibber, Mansour Dailami v Jaime de Melo, ch bin. 1991.
iu chnh cc nn kinh t ang sa ly: ci cch chnh sch v Ngn hng Th
gii (Restructuring Economies in Distress: Policy Reform and the World Bank).
New York: Oxford University Press
Thompson, Louis S. v Karim-Jacques Budin. 1997. Xu hng ton cu cho thu h
thng ng st c nhng kt qu tt. (Global Trend to Railway Concessions
Delivering Positive Results. ). Quan im 134. Ngn hng Th gii, Mng li
ti chnh, t nhn v c s h tng, Oasinhtn D.C.
Vng quc Anh, B trng Pht trin quc t. 1997. Xo ngho trn th gii: thch
thc ca th k XXI (Eliminating World Poverty: A Challenge for the 21st
Century). Sch trng ca B Pht trin quc t. London.
van de Walle, Dominique. 1995. Phn phi tr cp thng qua dch v y t cng cng
Innsia, 1978-1987. (The Distribution of Subsidies through Public Health
Services in Indonesia, 1978-87.). Trong Dominique van de Walle v Kimberly
Nead, ch bin, Chi tiu cng cng v ngi ngho (Public Spending and the
Poor). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.
van de Walle, Nicholas v Timothy Johnston. 1996. Ci thin vin tr cho chu Phi
(Improving Aid to Africa). Oasinhtn D.C.: Hi ng pht trin hi ngoi.
Wade, Robert. 1995. C s sinh thi ca cc th ch thu li: ng v Nam . (The
Ecological Basis of Irrigation Institutions: East and South Asia.) Pht trin Th
gii 23.
White, H. 1992. Phn tch v m v tc ng vin tr. (The Macroeconomic Analysis
of Aid Impact.). Tp ch Nghin cu pht trin 28.
Williamson, John, ch bin 1994. Kinh t chnh tr ca ci cch chnh sch (The
Political Economy of Policy Reform). Oasinhtn D.C.: Vin Kinh t Quc t.
Ngn hng Th gii. 1992. Trin khai c hiu qu: cha kho cho tc ng v mt pht
trin. (Effective Implementation: Key to Development Impact.). Bo co ca
nhm c nhim qun l ca Ngn hng Th gii. Oasinhtn D.C.
. 1993. Bo co v tnh hnh pht trin th gii 1993: u t vo y t (World
Development Report 1993: Investing in Health). New York: Oxford University
Press.
. 1994. Bo co v tnh hnh pht trin th gii 1994: C s h tng cho pht
trin (World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development). New
ANH GIA VIN TR
165
York: Oxford University Press.
. 1995. Bo co v tnh hnh pht trin th gii 1995: Cng nhn trong mt th
gii hi nhp (World Development Report 1995: Workers in an Integrating
World). New York: Oxford University Press.
. 1996a. Ti nh c v pht trin: nh gi ca Ngn hng Th gii i vi cc
d n c ti nh c bt buc, 1986-1993. (Resettlement and Development: The
Bankwide Review of Projects Involving Involuntary Resettlement, 19861993.).
Bo co s 032 ca V Mi trng. Oasinhtn D.C.
. 1996b. H tr k thut. (Technical Assistance.). Bi hc v thc hnh s 7.
Ngn hng Th gii, V nh gi hot ng, Oasinhtn D.C.
. 1997a. Kim im hng nm v hiu qu pht trin. (Annual Review of
Development Effectiveness.). Bo co s 17196. Ngn hng Th gii, V nh
gi hot ng, Oasinhtn D.C.
. 1997b. Bo co v tnh hnh pht trin th gii 1997: Nh nc trong mt th
gii ang chuyn i (World Development Report 1997: The State in a Changing
World). New York: Oxford University Press.
. 1998a. Ti chnh pht trin ton cu 1998 (Global Development Finance
1998). Oasinhtn D.C.
. 1998b. Cc ch bo v tnh hnh pht trin th gii 1998 (World Development
Indicators 1998). Oasinhtn D.C.
ANH GIA VIN TR

Danh Gia Vien Tro PDF

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Danh Gia Vien Tro PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

nh gi Vin tr

KHI NAO C TC DUNG, KHI NAO KHNG, VA TAI SAO

You might also like