Quyhoach&quanlynguonnuoc

Trng i hc Thy li
GS. TS. H Vn Khi

Gio trnh

Quy hoch v qun l ngun nc

Nh xut bn Nng nghip
H Ni - 2005
2 Quy hoch v qun l ngun nc
Cc tc gi bin son gio trnh ny da trn cng mn hc, cc
ti liu ging dy vi s h tr ca cc chuyn gia t vn quc t. Gio
trnh do GS. TS. Ng nh Tun v PGS. TS. Nguyn Vn Tun phn
bin. Hi ng Khoa hc v o to Trng i hc Thy li ph
chun cho xut bn gio trnh ny theo Quyt nh s 1456/Q-HTL-
HKH&T ngy 18/4/2005. Tiu hp phn "H tr tng cng nng lc
cho Trng i hc Thy li" thuc Chng trnh H tr ngnh nc
ca DANIDA ti tr kinh ph cho t vn quc t, trong nc v in n
gio trnh.
mc lc 3

Mc Lc

Trang
Li ni u 5

Chng 1

Ti nguyn nc v vn s dng ti nguyn nc 7
1.1. Ti nguyn nc v vn khai thc ti nguyn nc 7
1.2. Khi nim v h thng ngun nc v c im ca n 10
1.3. Nhu cu nc dng v nhu cu nc sinh thi 12
1.4. c im chung v ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam 14

Chng 2

Quy hoch v qun l ngun nc 22
2.1. Nhim v ca quy hoch v qun l ngun nc 22
2.2. Cc bi ton c bn v quy hoch v qun l ngun nc 23
2.3. Chng trnh nc quc gia cc dng quy hoch ngun nc 25
2.4. Ni dung v cc bc c bn lp quy hoch ngun nc 29
2.5. Khung lut php v th ch trong qun l ti nguyn nc 32
2.6. Yu cu pht trin bn vng ti nguyn nc 34
2.7. Phng php tip cn h thng trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc 36
2.8. Vai tr ca m hnh ho, nhng u im v hn ch ca n 37

Chng 3

Phn tch kinh t trong quy hoch pht trin ngun nc 41
3.1. Nhim v v ni dung phn tch kinh t trong pht trin ngun nc 41
3.2. Mt s khi nim c bn 41
3.3. Cc ch tiu nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca d n 49
3.4. Phn tch chi ph v li ch trong quy hoch ngun nc 52
3.5. V d v nh gi hiu qu kinh t d n 53
3.6. Gi nc v nh gi nc 63


Chng 4

M hnh ho trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc 64
4.1. Qu trnh la chn phng n quy hoch ngun nc 64
4.2. M hnh m phng h thng 65
4.3. M hnh ti u ho trong quy hoch ngun nc 68
4.4. Thit lp bi ton ti u h thng ngun nc v phn loi 71
4.5. Ti u ha i vi bi ton pht trin h thng ngun nc 77
4.6. Bi ton ti u a mc tiu 79

Chng 5

K thut phn tch h thng ng dng trong quy hoch
v qun l ngun nc 85
5.1. L thuyt phn tch h thng 85
5.2. H thng phng php lun ca l thuyt phn tch h thng 90
5.3. Phn loi tng qut cc m hnh ti u 92
5.4. Phng php gii cc bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh 94
5.5. Quy hoch phi tuyn 107
5.6. Quy hoch ng 134
5.7. p dng phng php ti u ha trong quy hoch qun l ngun nc 150
5.8. p dng m hnh m phng trong quy hoch ngun nc 174

Chng 6

H thng h tr ra quyt nh 177
6.1. Khi nim v h thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS) 177
6.2. H thng h tr ra quyt nh trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc 180

Ti liu tham kho 187

mc lc 5

Li ni u 5

Li ni u

Gio trnh Quy hoch v qun l ngun nc c bin son theo
khun kh Chng trnh H tr ngnh nc ca Danida (WAterSPS), thuc
tiu hp phn H tr nng cao nng lc Trng i hc Thu li do Chnh
ph an Mch ti tr. Gio trnh ny phc v ging dy mn hc Quy
hoch ngun nc chng trnh i hc v c th s dng lm ti liu
tham kho cho cc hc vin cao hc v nghin cu sinh thuc lnh vc pht
trin ngun nc.
Mc tiu ca Gio trnh l gii thiu nhng khi nim c bn v quy
hoch v qun l ngun nc, cc phng php phn tch kinh t k thut,
phng php phn tch h thng trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc.
Ni dung ca gio trnh c trnh by theo hng tip cn nhng phng
php nghin cu hin i trn th gii v quy hoch v qun l ngun
nc. Ph lc km theo gio trnh ny l cc v d v nghin cu in hnh
v cc bi ton quy hoch h thng h cha li dng tng hp, quy hoch
phng l, cc bi ton qun l khai thc h thng ngun nc.
Gio trnh gm 6 chng vi nhng ni dung chnh nh sau:
1. Cc khi nim v ni dung c bn v quy hoch v qun l
ngun nc
2. c im Ti nguyn nc v vn quy hoch qun l ngun
nc ca Vit Nam
3. Phn tch kinh t trong quy hoch v pht trin ngun nc
4. K thut phn tch h thng ng dng trong quy hoch v
qun l ngun nc
5. p dng phng php ti u ho trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun nc
6. H thng h tr ra quyt nh trong quy hoch qun l ngun
nc

Cc nghin cu in hnh s c xut bn ring trong tp ti liu
hng dn thc hnh.
Trong qu trnh chun b bn tho ca gio trnh ny, tc gi
nhn c s h tr thng xuyn v mt ti liu v t vn chuyn mn ca
Chng trnh h tr ngnh nc ca Danida (WAterSPS). Tc gi xin chn
thnh cm n v s gip ny. Tc gi xin chn thnh cm n GS. TS.
Ng nh Tun, GS. TS. L Thc Cn ng gp nhiu kin qu bu
tc gi hon tt bn tho ln cui. Xin chn thnh cm n cc ng
nghip, c bit l PGS. TS. Nguyn Vn Tun, PGS. TS. Tt Tc,
TS. Nguyn Vn Thng v nhng nhn xt v nhng kin gp cho bn
tho ca chng ti.
y l gio trnh c xut bn ln u nn kh trnh khi nhng
sai st v khim khuyt. Rt mong s gp ca c gi nng cao cht
lng ca gio trnh trong nhng ln xut bn sau.

GS. TS. H Vn Khi

Li ni u 7

Chng 1- Ti nguyn nc... 7

Chng 1

TAI NGUYN NC
VA VN S DUNG TAI NGUYN NC

1.1. Ti nguyn nc v vn khai thc ti nguyn nc

Nc l yu t quyt nh n s tn ti v pht trin mi trng sng. Nc l
mt loi ti nguyn thin nhin qu gi v c hn, l ng lc ch yu chi phi mi
hot ng dn sinh kinh t ca con ngi. Nc c s dng rng ri trong sn xut
nng nghip, thy in, giao thng vn ti, chn nui, thu sn v.v... Bi vy, ti
nguyn nc c gi tr kinh t v c coi l mt loi hng ho.
Nc l loi ti nguyn c th ti to c v cn phi s dng mt cch hp l
duy tr kh nng ti to ca n.
Trn hnh tinh chng ta nc tn ti di nhng dng khc nhau: Nc trn tri
t, ngoi i dng, cc sng sui, h ao, cc h cha nhn to, nc ngm, trong
khng kh, bng tuyt v cc dng lin kt khc. Theo V. I. Vernatske, khi lng
nc trn tri t vo khong 1,46 t km
3
, trong nc trong i dng chim
khong 1,37 t km
3
.
S phn b nc trn hnh tinh chng ta theo s liu c tnh ca UNESCO nm
1978 (bng 1-1) nh sau: Tng lng nc trn tri t vo khong 1.385.984.610 km
3

trong nc trong i dng vo khong 1.338.000.000 km
3
chim 96,5%. Nc
ngt trn tri t chim t l rt nh ch vo khong 2,5%. Nc ngt phn b nc
ngm, nc mt, dng bng tuyt v cc dng khc, trong lng nc dng bng
tuyt chim t l cao nht (xp x 70%), nc ngt cc tng ngm di t chim t
l vo khong 30,1%, trong khi nc trong h thng sng sui ch chim khong
0,006% tng lng nc ngt trn tri t, mt t l rt nh.
H thng tun hon nc c th m t trn hnh (1-1). Nc trn tri t tn ti
trong mt khong khng gian gi l thu quyn. Nc vn ng trong thu quyn qua
nhng con ng v cng phc tp cu to thnh tun hon nc cn gi l chu trnh
thu vn.
Nc bc hi t cc i dng v lc a tr thnh mt b phn ca kh quyn.
Hi nc c vn chuyn vo bu khng kh, bc ln cao cho n khi chng ngng
kt v ri tr li mt t hoc mt bin. Lng nc ri xung mt t mt phn b gi

li bi cy ci, chy trn trn mt t thnh dng chy trn sn dc, thm xung t,
chy trong t thnh dng chy st mt t v chy vo cc dng sng thnh dng
chy mt. Phn ln lng nc b gi li bi thm ph thc vt v dng chy mt s
quay tr li bu kh quyn qua con ng bc hi v bc thot hi. Lng nc ngm
trong t c th thm su hn xung nhng lp t bn di cp nc cho cc tng
nc ngm v sau xut l thnh cc dng sui hoc chy dn vo sng ngi thnh
dng chy mt v cui cng ra bin hoc bc hi vo kh quyn.
C th coi qu trnh tun hon nc l mt h thng thu vn, thc cht l qu
trnh chuyn t ma sang dng chy vi cc thnh phn l nc ri, bc hi, dng
chy v cc pha khc nhau ca chu trnh. Cc thnh phn ny c th c tp hp
thnh cc h thng con ca chu trnh ln. Chu trnh vng tun hon ton cu c m
t trn hnh (1-1). Theo s tun hon nc trn hnh (1-1) c nhn xt nh sau:
- Tng ng vi 100 n v ma trn lc a c 38 n v chy dng chy mt ra
bin; 1 n v chy ngm ra bin; 61 n v bc hi t lc a. R rng lng bc hi
t mt t l rt ln so vi lng nc mt v lng nc ngm chy ra bin.
- Trn i dng, tng ng vi 385 n v ma xung i dng c 424 n v
bc hi t i dng.
Bng 1-1: c lng nc trn tri t
Hng mc
Din tch
(10
6
km
2
)
Th tch
(km
3
)
Phn trm ca
tng lng nc
Phn trm
ca nc ngt
1. i dng 361,3 1.338.000.000 96,5
2. Nc ngm
- Nuc ngt 134,8 10.530.000 0,76 30,1
- Nc nhim mn 134,8 12.870.000 0,93
- Lng m trong t 82,0 16.500 0,0012 0,05
3. Bng tuyt
- Bng cc cc 16,0 24.023.500 1.7 68,6
- Cc loi bng tuyt khc 0,3 340.600 0,025 1,0
4. H, m
- Nc ngt 1,2 91.000 0,007 0,26
- Nhim mn 0,8 85.400 0,006
- m ly 2,7 11.470 0,0008 0,03
5. Sng ngi 148,8 2.120 0,0002 0,006
6. Nc sinh hc 510,0 1.120 0,0001 0,003
7. Nc trong kh quyn 510,0 12.900 0,001 0,04
Tng cng 510,0 1.385.984.610 100
Nc ngt 148,8 35.029.210 2,5 100

Thm
Dng chy mt
Dng chy st mt
Dng chy ngm
Dng chy mt chy ra bin
38
Ma ri xung mt t
100

Bc hi t lc a
61
Bc hi t i dng
424
Ma ri xung i dng
385
Lng m trong khng kh
39
Mc nc ngm
H cha
Tng khng thm
Dng chy ngm chy ra bin
1

Vng tun hon nc v cn bng nc ton cu vi 100 n v ma trn lc a
Hnh 1-1: S cn bng nc
(Chow V.T., David R. Madment v Larry W. Mays, Thy vn ng dng,
Hu Thnh v Vn Ton dch, Nh xut bn Gio dc, 1994)

Ghi ch: Tng ng vi 100 n v ma trn lc a c 38 n v dng chy mt ra bin;
1 n v chy ngm ra bin; 61 n v bc hi t lc a; tng ng c 385 n v ma xung
i dng v 424 n v bc hi t i dng.

S phn b theo khng gian rt khng u. Trn tri t c vng c lng ma
kh phong ph, nhng li c nhng vng kh hn. Cc vng nhiu ma (lng ma >
2000 mm trong nm) trn th gii phn b nh sau:
Chu u: vng ni Anp, Ccaz, Nauy;
Chu : Vit Nam (tr mt s vng nh chu th Cu Long, Cao Bng, Lng
Sn...), Innxia, Philipin, Nht Bn, Malaixia, Campuchia v.v...).
Mt trong nhng c th quan trng na l: Ngun nc c tr lng hng nm
khng phi l v tn, s bin i ca n khng vt qua mt gii hn no v khng
ph thuc vo mong mun ca con ngi.

Nc thng phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian, dn n s khng
ph hp gia ti nguyn nc v yu cu s dng ca con ngi.
Ti nguyn nc c nh gi bi ba c trng quan trng: Lng, cht lng
v ng thi ca n:
Lng nc: tng lng nc sinh ra trong mt khong thi gian mt nm
hoc mt thi k no trong nm. N biu th mc phong ph ca ti
nguyn nc trn mt vng lnh th.
Cht lng nc: bao gm cc c trng v hm lng ca cc cht ho tan
v khng ho tan trong nc (c li hoc c hi theo tiu chun s dng ca
i tng s dng nc).
ng thi ca nc c nh gi bi s thay i ca cc c trng dng
chy theo thi gian, s trao i nc gia cc khu vc cha nc, s vn
chuyn v quy lut chuyn ng ca nc trong sng, s chuyn ng ca
nc ngm, cc qu trnh trao i cht ho tan, truyn mn v.v...

Ngun nc trn th gii l rt ln, nhng nc ngt mi l yu cu c bn cho
hot ng dn sinh kinh t ca con ngi. Nc ngt trn th gii dng khai thc
c c tr lng khng ln, chim khong trn di 1% tng lng nc c trn tri
t. Khi s pht trin dn sinh kinh t cn mc thp, nc ch mi c coi l mi
trng cn thit cho s sng ca con ngi. Trong qu trnh pht trin, cng ngy cng
c s mt cn i gia nhu cu dng nc v ngun nc. Di tc ng cc hot
ng kinh t x hi ca con ngi, ngun nc ngy cng c nguy c b suy thoi v
cn kit, khi nc c coi l mt loi ti nguyn qu cn c bo v v qun l.
Cc lut nc ra i v cng vi n mi quc gia u c mt t chc qun l
nghim ngt loi ti nguyn ny.

1.2. Khi nim v h thng ngun nc v c im ca n
1.2.1. H thng ngun nc
Qu trnh khai thc ngun nc hnh thnh h thng cc cng trnh thu li.
Nhng cng trnh thu li c xy dng lm thay i ng k nhng c im t
nhin ca h thng ngun nc. Mc khai thc ngun nc cng ln th s thay i
thuc tnh ti nguyn nc cng ln v chnh n li nh hng n qu trnh khai thc
s dng nc ca con ngi. Chnh v vy, khi lp cc quy hoch khai thc ngun
nc cn xem xt s tc ng qua li gia ti nguyn nc, phng thc khai thc v
cc bin php cng trnh. Bi vy, theo quan im h thng ngi ta nh ngha h
thng ngun nc nh sau:
H thng ngun nc l mt h thng phc tp bao gm ti nguyn nc, cc
bin php khai thc v bo v ngun nc, cc yu cu v nc cng vi mi quan h
tng tc gia chng cng vi s tc ng ca mi trng ln n
(1) Ngun nc c nh gi bi cc c trng sau: Lng v phn b ca n
theo khng gian v thi gian; Cht lng nc; ng thi ca nc v cht lng
nc.
(2) Cc bin php khai thc v bo v ngun nc: Bao gm cc cng trnh
thu li, cc bin php ci to v bo v ngun nc, bao gm c bin php cng trnh
v phi cng trnh, c cu trc tu thuc vo mc ch khai thc v bo v
ngun nc.
(3) Cc yu cu v nc: Bao gm cc h dng nc, cc yu cu v mc bo
m phng chng l lt, ng hn, cc yu cu v bo v hoc ci to mi trng cng
cc yu cu dng nc khc.
Tc ng ca mi trng l nhng tc ng v hot ng dn sinh kinh t, hot
ng ca con ngi (khng k cc tc ng v khai thc ngun nc theo quy hoch).
Nhng tc ng bao gm nh hng ca cc bin php canh tc lm thay i mt
m v lng dn, s tc ng khng c thc vo h thng cc cng trnh thy li v.v...
1.2.2. c im ca h thng ngun nc
Nghin cu v h thng ngun nc cn ch nhng c im chnh ca n, c
th h thng li nh sau.
(1) H thng ngun nc l mt h thng phc tp, tn ti mt s lng cc
tham s v cc mi quan h gia chng. H thng ngun nc b tc ng mnh m
bi yu t mi trng.
(2) H thng ngun nc l h bt nh, c nhiu yu t bt nh, bao gm:
+ Cc bin vo, bin ra v bin trng thi l nhng bin ngu nhin. Quy
lut ngu nhin ca cc bin s nh hng n cht lng ca cc thit
k, quy hoch v iu khin h thng ngun nc.
+ Cc thng tin v h thng l khng y , hoc c th cng rt kh c th
phn tch c ht cc thuc tnh ca h thng khi lp cc quy hoch khai
thc. Cc thng tin bao gm:
- Cc ti liu o c v kh tng thy vn.
- Cc ti liu v yu cu nc trong tng lai.
- Cc thng tin v nh hng tc ng ca mi trng v.v...
(3) S hiu bit khng y ca con ngi nghin cu v h thng, bao gm
cc quy lut vt l ca ngun nc, cc "tim nng" ca h thng v cc nh hng
ca cc bin php cng trnh n s thay i trng thi ca h thng ngun nc v.v...

(4) Bt ng v mc tiu, th hin cc mt:
+ Mc tiu khai thc c th cha c t ra mt cch r rng ngay t u,
v n ch c hnh thnh trong qu trnh tip cn h thng.
+ a mc tiu trong khai thc v qun l ngun nc.
+ H thng ngun nc l h thng lun lun trng thi cn bng tm thi.
Nhng bin i v kh hu, mt m v cc tc ng t bin ca con
ngi lm h thng ngun nc thay i t trng thi cn bng ny sang
trng thi cn bng khc. Do nhng thng tin hin ti v h thng
khng phn nh nhng quy lut ca tng lai.

(5) H thng ngun nc l h thng c cu trc yu, bi v:
+ Cc mi quan h trong h thng rt kh th hin bng cc biu thc ton
hc, thm ch khng th hin c.
+ Kh kim sot c cc tc ng ca mi trng, c bit l cc tc ng
ca con ngi.

Vi nhng c im trn ca h thng ngun nc, n tr thnh mt i tng
nghin cu ca l thuyt phn tch h thng.

1.3. Nhu cu nc dng v nhu cu nc sinh thi

Nc l nhu cu khng th thiu v l nguyn nhn ch yu ca s pht trin
lch s loi ngi. Trong qu trnh pht trin, bng cc bin php thy li con ngi
lm thay i trng thi t nhin ca ngun nc nhm tho mn cc yu cu v nc
ngy cng tng ca x hi loi ngi. Cc bin php thy li cng a dng, bao gm:
H cha, p dng nc, h thng , h thng cc trm bm v cng ti tiu, cng
ngn mn v.v... Cc bin php thy li ngy cng pht trin s lm thay i mnh m
ch t nhin ca dng chy sng ngi.

1.3.1. Yu cu dng nc v phn loi
Khai thc ngun nc c th theo nhng mc ch khc nhau: cp nc ti, cp
nc cho cng nghip, cp nc cho sinh hot, pht in, giao thng thy, du lch, ci
to mi trng, phng chng l lt, tiu ng, ln bin v.v..., c th gi chung l cc
yu cu v nc. Yu cu v nc rt a dng v c th chia thnh cc nhm nh sau.
1. Yu cu cp nc
Bao gm cc dng sau:
- Cp nc ti
- Cp nc sinh hot
- Cp nc phc v cng nghip
Cc h dng nc loi ny tiu hao mt lng nc kh ln v hu nh khng
hon li hoc hon li rt t nn thng gi l cc h tiu hao nc.
2. Yu cu s dng nc
Bao gm cc dng sau:
- Khai thc thu nng
- Giao thng thu
- Pht trin du lch
- Nui trng thu sn
Cc h dng nc loi ny khng tiu hao hoc tiu hao rt t lng nc m n
c s dng nn thng gi l cc h s dng nc.
3. Yu cu v ci to v bo v mi trng
Bao gm cc dng sau:
- Phng chng l lt v tiu thot nc
- X l nc thi v chng nhim ngun nc
- Ci to mi trng sinh thi
- Chnh tr sng v bo v b

1.3.2. Nhu cu nc sinh thi
Theo quan im pht trin bn vng, khai thc ngun nc phi m bo khng
lm cn kit, suy thoi ngun nc v m bo cn bng sinh thi. Nhng bin php
khai thc ngun nc nhm mc ch pht trin kinh t x hi v phc v i sng ca
con ngi c th lm thay i ng k ngun nc c v lng, cht lng v ng
thi ca n dn n s thay i cn bng nc trn lu vc sng. S thay i cn bng
nc t nhin c th c li hoc c hi cho mi trng sinh thi. Bi vy, pht trin
ngun nc phi hng ti s thay i c li v cn bng sinh thi ca lu vc sng.
Nhu cu nc sinh thi c coi l mt trong nhng tiu ch nh gi cc d n pht
trin ngun nc.
Nhu cu nc sinh thi c xem xt theo cc mc ch nh sau:
- m bo cn bng sinh thi t nhin.
- Ti to mt phn sinh thi do tc ng xu ca s dng nc ca con ngi.
- Ci to hoc to ra mt mi trng sinh thi mi c li cho con ngi.
Theo quan im hin i, mc ch khai thc ti nguyn nc khng ch v mc
tiu tng trng kinh t m cn hng ti s m bo cht lng mi trng sng i
vi con ngi. Bi vy, nhu cu nc cho sinh thi c u tin hng u trong cc
quy hoch v qun l ngun nc.

Vic xc nh yu cu nc sinh thi thng rt kh khn v ph thuc vo iu
kin c th ca bi ton quy hoch t ra.
Hin nay, trn th gii ngi ta ni nhiu n khi nim ngng khai thc.
Vit Nam, vn ngng khai thc cng c cp n trong nhng nm gn
y, tuy nhin cha c mt chun mc cho nhng quy nh v ngng khai thc. i
vi lu vc sng c mc khai thc ln thng lu cn quy nh lu lng ti
thiu cn x xung h du trong thi k ma kit. Hin nay, nc ta thng chn lu
lng ny tng ng vi mt tn sut quy nh no . Tn sut ny hin nay thng
ly bng 90%.

1.4. c im chung v ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam

Nc ta l mt trong nhng nc c ti nguyn nc phong ph trn th gii,
cng l nc c tr lng nc di do khu vc chu .
Vit Nam c 16 lu vc sng c din tch lu vc ln hn 2.000 km
2
, trong c
10 lu vc c din tch ln hn 10.000 km
2
, l cc sng: Hng-Thi Bnh, Bng
Giang-K Cng, M, C, Thu Bn, Ba, ng Nai, Cu Long, Srpok, S San (xem
bng 1-2). Theo thng k bng 1-2 ch c hai sng ln l sng Thu Bn v sng Ba
c ton b din tch tp trung nc nm chn vn trn lnh th Vit Nam. Hu ht cc
sng c ca sng ra b bin thuc lnh th Vit nam (tr sng Bng Giang-K
Cng, sng S San v sng Srpok).
a hnh ni non v kh hu nhit i gi ma tc ng su sc ti lng v phn
phi lng nc trong nm. Ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam c nhng c im chnh
nh sau:
1) Phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian. Trn lnh th c nhng vng
nc rt phong ph: lng ma trung bnh nm xp x 2000 mm, c ni lng ma
trung bnh nm trn 3800 mm. Nhng cng c vng ma rt nh, lng ma hng nm
t di 1500 mm, c bit ch t xp x 800mm (vng Phan Rang). Lng dng
chy hng nm ch yu tp trung vo khong 3 thng ma l, chim 80% tng lng
dng chy hng nm, ma kit ko di gy kh khn cho cp nc.
2) Nc ta c tng din tch l 331.000 km
2
th c n 75% din tch l i ni
v tp trung ch yu min Bc, Ty Nguyn v khu vc min Trung, cn li l ng
bng ph sa v chu th, ch yu l ng bng sng Hng v sng Cu Long.
3) a hnh min ni to ra tim nng ng k v thu in v d tr nc. Tuy
nhin cng l nguyn nhn gy l, l qut v xi mn t.
4) L, ng l hin tng xy ra thng xuyn gy thit hi ln cho nn kinh t
quc dn.
Vng ng bng ven bin, hin tng nhim mn cng gy kh khn cho sn
xut nng nghip v cp nc cho nng thn.

1.4.1. Ti nguyn nc mt
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nc c h thng sng ngi chng cht l mt
trng thi thun li cung cp ngun nc mt. Tng lng nc bnh qun hng nm
chy trn cc sng sui Vit Nam k c t ngoi lnh th chy vo theo s liu nh
gi ca WB v UNDP (Vit Nam - nh gi tng quan ngnh thy li, Bo co chnh
do WB, ADB, FAO, UNDP, NGO v IWRP lp, 1996) l 879 t m
3
, trong 75%
lng nc ny thuc lu vc sng Hng v sng M Kng. Theo kt qu nghin cu
ca ti KC-12 (1995) con s ny l 835 t m
3
. So vi cc nc lng ging, lng
nc c dng trn u ngi (bng lng nc chy hng nm ca mt nc chia cho
dn s) nc ta thuc loi cao trong khu vc.
Bng 1-2: Thng k din tch lu vc 10 sng ln Vit Nam
(Vit Nam - nh gi tng quan ngnh thy li, Bo co chnh do WB,
ADB, FAO, UNDP, NGO v IWRP lp, 1996, trang 15)
Phn din tch lu vc Vit Nam
TT Lu vc sng Din tch tng cng (km
2
)
Din tch (km
2
) T l %
1 Bng Giang-K Cng 12.880 11.200 87
2 Sng Hng-Thi Bnh 169.000 86.660 51
3 Sng M 28.490 17.810 63
4 Sng C 27.200 17.730 65
5 Sng Thu Bn 10.496 10.496 100
6 Sng Ba 13.900 13.900 100
7 Sng ng Nai 42.655 36.261 85
8 Sng Cu Long 795.000 72.000 9
9 Sng Srpok - 39.000 -
10 Sng S san - 18.200 -

Vit Nam hu nh nm cui h lu cc sng ln: Sng Hng, sng M Kng,
sng M, sng C, sng ng Nai. Chng hn: Sng M Kng c 90% din tch lu
vc nm nc ngoi v cng 90% lung nc sng M Kng chy vo Vit Nam t
nc ngoi; Sng Hng c gn 50% din tch lu vc nm Trung Quc v 30%
lng nc hng nm bt ngun t Trung quc. Do , kh nng c nc, c bit l
ma kh, khi cc nc vng thng ngun gia tng s dng ngun nc l iu nm
ngoi tm kim sot ca Vit Nam.

Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nc nm trong vng nhit i chu tc ng mnh
m ca cc hnh th thi tit gy ma ln. V vy, tnh trng l lt l mi e da
thng xuyn i vi cc vng dn c nm h lu cc sng ln, c bit l vng
ng bng Bc B v ng bng sng Cu Long l hai vng ng dn nht Vit Nam
nm vng ca sng ca hai sng ln l sng Hng v sng M Kng. Hng nm, l
ca hai sng lun e da cuc sng ca hng triu ngi vng chu th hai sng ny.
L qut cng l mi him ho i vi cc vng dn c thuc cc tnh min ni.
L lt Vit Nam c nhng c im chnh nh sau:
1. Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nc nm trong vng nhit i chu tc ng
mnh m ca bo v cc hnh th thi tit gy ma ln, l nguyn nhn gy ra tnh
trng l lt nghim trng cho vng h du sng.
2. Hu ht cc sng ln u c ca sng nm trong lnh th Vit Nam. Thy
triu v s din bin phc tp vng ca sng lm tng tnh nghim trng ca l lt.
3. a s cc sng sui c dc ln, l tp trung nhanh gy kh khn cho cng
tc phng trnh l.
4. Hu ht khu vc dn c u nm vng trng thng xuyn b ng lt v b
l e da.
5. L qut thng xuyn xy ra gy thm ho cho cc khu dn c thuc trung du
v min ni.
Do c im a hnh, c im sng ngi v s hnh thnh l ca cc vng khc
nhau nn cng tc quy hoch phng chng l ca cc vng cng c nhng c th
khc nhau.
nc ta c n 70% s dn nm trong vng thng xuyn b e da bi l lt.
Bi vy, phng chng l l mt trong nhng vn c nh nc quan tm c bit.
Do c im kh hu nn s phn b dng chy trong nm rt khng u. Tng
lng dng chy trong 3 n 5 thng ma l chim khong t 70% n 80% lng
dng chy trong nm, trong khi trong sut 7 n 9 thng ma kit t l ny ch vo
khong 20% n 30%.
Tnh trng nhim nc mt trong nhng nm gn y gia tng theo nhp iu
pht trin cng nghip. Tnh trng nhim ngun nc mt r rng nht cc khu
th nh H Ni, Thnh ph H Ch Minh. Tc pht trin kinh t cao l nguy c lm
xu i cht lng ngun nc trn cc sng sui.
Hin tng xm nhp mn vng ven bin l vn chnh cn phi gii quyt i
vi vng ng bng ven bin, c bit l ng bng sng Cu Long.

1.4.2. Ti nguyn nc ngm
Tr lng nc ngm Vit Nam kh phong ph. Tuy nhin, do c lng nc
mt kh phong ph nn nc ngm cha c khai thc nhiu. Lng nc ngm c
khai thc chim t l vo khong 2% tr lng nc ngm v chim khong 14% tng
lng nc ngm c th khai thc c. Vic khai thc nc ngm ch yu ti cc
thnh ph ln nh H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh. Ti y, nc ngm c khai
thc cung cp 30% nhu cu nc thnh ph.
Ni chung, cht lng nc ngm rt tt. Tuy nhin, do nhim ngun nc mt
v tnh trng khai thc khng hp l c th l xu i cht lng ngun nc ngm
trong tng lai.

1.4.3. Nhng nt chnh v pht trin ngun nc trong tng lai
1.4.3.1. Nhu cu cp nc
Hin nay, nc c s dng ch yu cho pht trin nng nghip. Trong tng
lai khi cng nghip pht trin mnh, nhp th ho tng nhanh th nhu cu cp
nc cho cng nghip s chim t trng ln. Thm vo tnh trng nhim ngun
nc do s dng nc s c th rt nghim trng nu khng c bin php qun l
hiu qu.
Nc s dng cho nng thn hin nay c cht lng thp c v lng v cht. V
vy, nc sch cho nng thn cng cn cp n trong cc quy hoch trong tng
lai. Vng nng thn ng bng sng Cu Long v cc vng ni cao l nhng i tng
cn c xem xt u tin trong chin lc pht trin ngun nc sch cho nng thn.
1.4.3.2. Pht trin nng lng
Pht trin thu nng hin ang chim t trng ln trong h thng nng lng ca
Vit Nam. T trng ny cn gi trong nhiu nm na. Hin nay, cc nh my thy
in Ho Bnh, Thc B, a Nhim, Tr An, Yaly, Thc M... c xy dng. Cc
h cha pht in Tuyn Quang, S San 3, Bn V... ang c xy dng; thy in
Sn La v mt s cng trnh thu in khc ang chun b khi cng v mt lot cc
nh my thy in khc s c xy dng trong vng 15 nm ti. Trong bng (1-3)
thng k mt s cng trnh thy in ln v s c xy dng trong nhng nm ti.

Bng 1-3: Mt s cng trnh thy in hin c v d kin c xy dng
Cng trnh hin c hoc ang xy dng Cc cng trnh d kin
Cng trnh Lu vc
Cng sut lp my
(MW)
Cng trnh Lu vc
Cng sut lp my
(MW)
Ho Bnh S. 1920 S San 3 S. S San 273
Thc B S. Chy 108 S San 3A S. S San 100
Tuyn Quang S.L 342 S San 4 S. S San 330
Sn La S. 2400 Cn n S.ng Nai 60
Thc M S. B 150 Hm Thun S. ng Nai 34
Sng Hinh S. Ba 66 a Mi S. ng Nai 36
a Nhim S. ng Nai 160 ng Nai 4 S. ng Nai 64
Tr An S. ng Nai 420 Bn V S. C -
Yaly S. S San 700 Ca t Sng M 120
Plei Krong S. S San 120

Hnh 1-2: H thng h cha pht in trn sng S San
1.4.3.3. Phng chng l lt
Nc ta nm trong vng nhit i gi ma, thng xuyn c bo xy ra. a
hnh i ni li rt phc tp nn l lt xy ra thng xuyn v gy thit hi ln. Bi
vy, cc bin php phng chng l lt c nh nc rt quan tm.
Vng Bc B hnh thnh h thng iu rt s, tuy nhin l lt vn l
him ho i vi vng ng bng ng dn ny. Hin ny, cc h cha Ho Bnh,
Thc B gp phn gim thit hi do l gy ra nhng cng ch c kh nng khng
ch trn l 125 nm xut hin mt ln. Trong chin lc phng chng l lt sng
Hng - Thi Bnh, cc bin php h cha, trong c cc h cha Sn La, Lai Chu,
Tuyn Quang s tip tc c xy dng v m nhim chng l vi trn l 500 nm
xut hin mt ln. Cc bin php no vt chnh tr lng sng cng c cp trong
chin lc phng l h du.
i vi vng ng bng sng Cu Long, nhng bin php gim thiu thit hi do
l gy ra c nghin cu v p dng trong nhng nm gn y, l bin php
chuyn nc sang bin Ty. Tuy nhin, chin lc chung i vi vng ny l chung
sng vi l v khai thc cc ngun li t l.
i vi cc lu vc sng min Trung, l thng c cng ln v xy ra rt c
lit. Cc bin php h cha c p dng gim thiu thit hi. V lu di th
nhng bin php ny cng khng cho hiu qu cao v kh nng xy dng cc h cha
ln l rt t.

1.4.4. Hin trng v khai thc v qun l ngun nc Vit Nam
Vic lp cc quy hoch ngun nc nc ta bt u t nhng nm 60.
Nhng quy hoch ln nh quy hoch khai thc ngun nc sng Hng, cc quy hoch
phng l, tiu ng v cp nc c thc hin vi mt s lng ln. Nhng d n
quy hoch c thc hin t nm 1960 n nay lm thay i cn bn h thng
ngun nc nc ta v mang li hiu qu cao cho pht trin nng nghip, thy nng
v phng chng l lt. Nh nc ch u t cho pht trin thy li vi quy m
ln, to ra mt h thng cng trnh thy li a dng v rng khp trn ton lnh th.
C th tm tt cc bin php thy li ch yu nh sau:
(1) Nng cp, tu b v pht trin h thng iu c, nhm nng cao hiu qu
chng l cho vng ng bng chu th Bc B v cc tnh thuc khu vc min Trung.
(2) Xy dng cc h cha, trong c c cc h cha ln, cc h cha va v
nh. Cc h cha ln thng c nhim v iu tit nc pht in kt hp phng l v
cp nc. Cc h cha nh thng ch c nhim v cp nc cho nng nghip. Khai
thc thy nng t cc h cha chim t trng ln trong h thng nng lng Vit Nam.
Theo thng k ca Cc Qun l nc v cng trnh thy li (nay l Cc Thy li) B
Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn nm 1998, nc ta hin nay c hn 60 h cha

c dung tch trn 10 triu m
3
. Tng dung tch cha trong cc h phc v ti l
5,2 t m
3
. Ngoi ra cn c cc h thng thy nng ly nc trc tip t nhng sng ln
nh h thng Bc Hng Hi, sng Chu, Bi Thng v.v...
(3) Xy dng cc trm bm ti, tiu hoc ti tiu kt hp, cc cng ly nc ti
tiu vng ng bng. ng thi xy dng cc h thng cng ngn mn vng ca sng.
Vi mc khai thc ngun nc nh hin nay c du hiu v s suy thoi
ngun nc trn cc lu vc sng nc ta. Bi vy, vn quy hoch s dng hp l
ngun nc n lc phi xem xt mt cch nghim tc. Quy hoch khai thc ti
nguyn nc cn c xem xt theo quan im h thng vi s tip cn vi nhng
phng php hin i khi lp cc quy hoch pht trin ngun nc.
Nhng tn ti trong cng tc lp quy hoch ngun nc v cng tc qun l
ngun nc hin nay l:
! Qun l ngun nc c cp n trong cng tc quy hoch pht
trin ngun nc. Tuy nhin, hin cha c cc m hnh hiu qu c
s dng trong cng tc qun l. H thng chnh sch trong qun l
ngun nc chm a vo thc t sn xut.
! Nhng quy hoch chin lc cho nhng vng quan trng nh ng
bng sng Cu Long, Ty Nguyn, ng bng Bc B v cc quy hoch
phng chng l cn ang giai on nghin cu nhm hon chnh cc
quy hoch lu vc sng.

Trong tng lai Vit Nam phi tng cng hn na cng tc qun l ngun nc
c bit l qun l lu vc sng. Nhng quy hoch ln thuc ng bng sng Hng,
ng bng sng Cu Long, vng ven bin min Trung v Ty Nguyn vn cn tip tc
c nghin cu.
Mt s nh hng v quy hoch phng l cho h du sng Hng
Hin trng h thng cng trnh phng chng l sng Hng cha p ng yu cu
phng chng l cho h du. C th l:
H thng - Sng l h thng cng trnh ch lc chng l cho h du sng
Hng vn tim n nhng nguy c s c khi c mc nc cao.
Kh nng thot l ca h thng sng ngi b suy gim do:
- Lng sng b thu hp
- Ca sng b bi lp v suy thoi
- Xut hin nhiu vt cn
- Xi l v bi lp cc b
- Hot ng ca h thng tiu ni ng b sung gy nc dnh
Do kh nng thot l ca h thng sng ngi b suy gim lm gim hiu qu
ct l ca h thng h cha thng ngun.
Do nhng l do trn, quy hoch h thng phng l sng Hng vn l vn c
tip tc nghin cu. Phng hng quy hoch phng l sng Hng c th tm tt nh sau:
1. Xy dng cc h cha ln trn thng ngun (Tuyn Quang v Sn La, Lai Chu...).
2. Tm gii php lm tng kh nng thot l vng ca sng.
3. No vt lng sng v bo v b.
4. Tng cng cng c h thng iu.
5. Nghin cu cc phng n phn chm l, phn tn l.
6. Nng cao cht lng d bo thu vn theo hng hin i ho.
7. Nng cao hiu qu qun l vn hnh phng chng l.
8. Bo v rng v chng xi mn.

Vn phng l ng bng sng Cu Long
Lu vc sng M Kng c din tch vo khong 795.000 km
2
, trong din tch
lu vc thuc a phn Vit Nam chim 10% din tch lu vc. ng bng vng chu
th sng Cu Long thuc sng M Kng c din tch 39.000 km
2
, dn s hn 15 triu
ngi l vng thng xuyn b ng v l e da.
L ln trn h thng sng Cu Long thng xut hin vo thng 7, 12 hng nm,
l ng bng sng Cu Long l loi l hin, ln chm v rt chm. L ng bng sng
Cu Long ko di v gy din ngp ln (25% din tch chu th). Vng ng bng
sng Cu Long thp, khng c (tr mt s b bao) nn khng kim sot c l,
vng ngp l cng thng nht l T gic Long Xuyn v ng Thp Mi.
Hin trng h thng cng trnh phng l c th tm tt nh sau:
Ch c cc bao mt s vng ngp
hnh thnh h thng knh thot l cho vng T gic Long Xuyn v
ng Thp Mi. H thng cng trnh knh thot l c b tr bin gii
vi Campuchia v thot l ra bin Ty.
H thng knh rch ng bng sng Cu Long rt ln nhng kh nng thot
l ca h thng sng ngi rt hn ch do vng ngp l cao trnh thp, hin
tng thu triu rt phc tp. Hin tng xi l c th pht trin rt phc tp
khi tin hnh xy dng cc bao hoc cc knh thot l.
Phng hng quy hoch phng chng l cho ng bng sng Cu Long l:
1) Phng chm chung: Va nghin cu cc bin php phng l va thc
hin phng chm chung sng vi l v khai thc ngun ti nguyn l.
2) Tm gii php thot l vng ng bng.
3) No vt lng sng v bo v b.
4) Nghin cu kh nng xy dng bao mt s vng dn c
5) Quy hoch hp l cc cm dn c vng ngp l
6) Nng cao cht lng d bo thy vn
7) Tng cng hiu qu kim sot l lu vc sng vi s hp tc cht ch
gia cc quc gia trn lu vc sng. Cn pht huy hiu lc ca U ban
sng M Kng.


Chng 2

QUY HOACH VA QUN L NGUN NC

2.1. Nhim v ca quy hoch v qun l ngun nc

Quy hoch ngun nc l s hoch nh chin lc s dng nc mt cch hp
l ca mt quc gia, trn mt vng lnh th hoc mt lu vc sng, bao gm chin
lc u t pht trin ngun nc v phng thc qun l ngun nc nhm p ng
cc yu cu v nc v m bo s pht trin bn vng.
Quy hoch v qun l ngun nc l lnh vc khoa hc kh phc tp. Trong thi
i hin nay, vic khai thc ngun nc lin quan khng nhng phi m bo s u
t c hiu qu m cn phi m bo s pht trin bn vng. Ngun nc trn hnh tinh
cng ngy cng cn kit so vi s pht trin dn s v mc yu cu ngy cng cao
ca cc ngnh dng nc c v s lng v cht lng. Chnh v vy trong cc quy
hoch khai thc ngun nc thng tn ti cc mu thun: mu thun gia cc ngnh
dng nc, mu thun gia khai thc v bo v mi trng, mu thun gia s dng
nc vi s m bo pht trin bn vng. Nu trc y, theo quan im truyn thng,
khai thc ngun nc phi m bo ti u v mt u t, th ngy ny vn phn tch
kinh t ch l mt loi tiu chun nh gi d n quy hoch. Khi phi m bo s pht
trin bn vng trong qu trnh pht trin ngun nc th vn t ra khng phi tm
phng n ti u m cn phi tm phng n hp l nht - l phng n ti u kinh t
v tha mn cc yu cu pht trin bn vng.
Nhim v ca cc quy hoch s dng nc l s thit lp mt cn bng hp l
vi h thng ngun nc theo cc tiu chun c quy nh bi cc mc ch khai
thc v qun l ngun nc.
Mt quy hoch h thng ngun nc c gi l hp l nu tho mn yu cu khai
thc ngun nc c nh gi bi h thng ch tiu nh gi vi cc tiu ch sau:
- S dng ngun nc hiu qu nht v hp l nht.
- Hiu qu u t cao, cc phng n quy hoch ti u nht.
- p ng yu cu bo v mi trng v s pht trin bn vng ti nguyn
nc.
Li dng tng hp l nguyn tc cao nht ca vic hoch nh cc phng n
quy hoch khai thc ti nguyn nc. Nhng cng v vy, c th tn ti nhng mu
thun gia nhng ngnh dng nc, hoc l mu thun gia khai thc v bo v mi trng.
Chng 2- Quy hoch v qun l ngun nc 23
Tm kim phng n ti u trong quy hoch c th c gii quyt nh p dng
cc phng php ti u ho. Hin nay, cc phng php ti u ho trong lnh vc quy
hoch ngun nc c p dng tng i ph bin trn th gii. Tuy vy, khng
phi bi ton quy hoch no cng c th p dng c phng php ti u ho. Trong
trng hp nh vy th phng php m phng s hiu qu hn trong vic tm nghim
ti u. Thc ra, phng php m phng khng tm nghim ti u m tm nghim hp l.

2.2. Cc bi ton c bn v quy hoch v qun l ngun nc

Quy hoch v qun l ngun nc gm ba loi bi ton: Quy hoch h thng
(hay cn gi l thit k h thng), Pht trin ngun nc v Qun l ngun nc. Di
y s trnh by khi nim v ba loi bi ton ny.
2.2.1. Quy hoch h thng (Thit k h thng)
Quy hoch h thng ngun nc l s thit lp cu trc ca h thng ngun nc
bao gm h thng cng trnh v h thng cc yu cu v nc. Trong lnh vc ngun
nc cng vic ny c gi l Quy hoch h thng. Trong mt s ti liu cn c tn
gi l Thit k h thng, mt ngn t c s dng trong thit k cc loi h thng k
thut khc. Mc tiu ca giai on thit k h thng l xc nh mt cu trc hp l
nht ca h thng ngun nc, tho mn cc mc tiu khai thc v bo v ngun nc.
Khi lp cc quy hoch h thng, t yu cu khai thc ngun nc ngi lm quy
hoch phi xc nh nhng loi cng trnh no s c xem xt xy dng? quy m xy
dng ra sao? yu cu cp nc no cn c xem xt v kh nng p ng n u?
cu trc no ca h thng c coi l kh thi v ti u nht. Ngoi ra cn xem xt cc
phng n phi cng trnh (trng rng, h thng chnh sch..) nhm bo v v ti to
ngun nc.
Nhim v ca quy hoch h thng l xc nh cu trc hp l v cc gii php
cng trnh v phng thc s dng nc. Chng hn ta cn lp quy hoch i vi mt
h thng tiu ng, v mt bin php cng trnh cn thit xem xt cng trnh u mi
no s c xy dng (cng tiu hoc cng trnh tiu ng lc), v tr xy dng v quy
m cc loi cng trnh , xc nh cu trc ca h thng cc trc knh tiu, s phn
vng cc khu tiu. V mt yu cu tiu cn xem xt mc tiu cho tng vng tiu
trong h thng nh th no l hp l.
Ni tm li, quy hoch h thng l xc nh mt cu trc hp l v bin php
cng trnh v phng thc khai thc s dng nc. Bi vy, quy hoch h thng cn c
tn gi l thit k h thng. Cn phn bit hai ngn t thit k h thng v thit
k cng trnh: thit k h thng l xc nh cu trc ca h thng trong khi lp quy
hoch ngun nc cn thit k cng trnh l cng tc thit k i vi mt cng trnh
c th no trong h thng.

2.2.2. Pht trin ngun nc
Pht trin ngun nc l bi ton hoch nh chin lc u t pht trin bao
gm c vn u t pht trin h thng cng trnh v vn s dng ngun nc mt
cch hp l nhm m bo s pht trin bn vng trong tng lai. Lut ti nguyn
nc ca Vit Nam xc nh chin lc pht trin ngun nc nh sau: Pht trin
ti nguyn nc l bin php nhm nng cao kh nng khai thc, s dng bn vng ti
nguyn nc v nng cao gi tr ca Ti nguyn nc (Lut Ti nguyn nc - trang
5, mc 3, iu 7).
Lp quy hoch pht trin ngun nc bao gm nhng ni dung nh sau:
- D bo yu cu v nc trong tng lai bao gm yu cu s dng nc,
phng chng l v bo v mi trng.
- nh gi cn bng nc trong tng lai bao gm cn bng t nhin v cn
bng vi quy hoch h thng cng trnh xc nh trong tng lai.
- Xy dng quy hoch v s dng nc v khai thc ngun nc trong tng lai.
- D bo s thay i v mi trng, s suy thoi ngun nc do cc hot ng
dn sinh kinh t v tc ng do cc bin php khai thc ngun nc gy
nn. Trn c s lp cc quy hoch cho cc bin php nhm ti to ngun
nc, chng suy thoi v ngun nc.
- Hoch nh cc bin php cn thit trong qun l ngun nc, h thng
chnh sch v th ch nhm m bo s pht trin bn vng.
- Lp chin lc ti u trong u t pht trin ngun nc.

2.2.3. Qun l ngun nc
Qun l ngun nc: L s xc nh phng thc qun l ngun nc trn mt
vng, mt lnh th hoc mt h thng sng mt cch hiu qu v m bo yu cu v
s pht trin bn vng cho vng hoc lu vc sng nhm kim sot cc hot ng khai
thc ngun nc v nhng hot ng dn sinh kinh t c tc ng tch cc v tiu cc
n cn bng sinh thi v suy thoi ngun nc trn mt vng lnh th hoc lu vc
sng. Phng thc qun l cc hot ng khai thc ngun nc v cc hot ng dn
sinh kinh t trn mt lu vc sng gi l Qun l lu vc sng.
Qun l khai thc h thng cng trnh: L s thit lp cc phng thc qun l
khai thc h thng cng trnh, xy dng chng trnh iu hnh, iu khin h thng
sau khi h thng cng trnh c xy dng, m bo tnh hiu qu ca vic s dng
nc v m bo s pht trin bn vng v ngun nc. Qun l h thng cng trnh
thu li bi vy ch l mt ni dung ca qun l ngun nc.
qun l ngun nc mt cch c hiu qu cn gii quyt cc vn chnh
nh sau:
- Hoch nh h thng cc chnh sch, th ch nhm qun l tt nht ti
nguyn nc trn mt lnh th hoc trn mt lu vc sng. H thng chnh
sch bao gm lut nc v cc quy nh di lut do nh nc ban hnh, h
thng cc chnh sch nhm khuyn khch cng ng tham gia vo qu trnh
bo v ngun nc. Cc th ch c xy dng tu thuc vo c im c
th ca vng c ngun nc cn bo v. i vi cc sng ln chy qua lnh
th ca nhiu quc gia cn thit lp cc t chc lin quc gia phi hp
hnh ng.
- Thit lp h thng k thut tr gip cng tc qun l ngun nc bao gm
h thng quan trc, h thng x l thng tin, cc m hnh ton v cc phn
mm qun l d liu, cc m hnh v phn mm qun l ngun nc. y
c coi l cng c quan trng kim sot nhng nh hng c li v c
hi n ngun nc v sinh thi do cc hot ng dn sinh kinh t gy ra, t
c c s hoch nh cc phng thc khai thc hp l ti nguyn nc v
cc bin php cn thit bo v v nng cao cht lng ca ngun nc.

2.3. Chng trnh nc quc gia cc dng quy hoch ngun nc
2.3.1. Chng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun nc
Chng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun nc xc lp h thng chnh sch v
chng trnh v nc trn ton quc nhm khai thc hiu qu v hp l ti nguyn
nc ca mt quc gia.
H thng chnh sch v cc chng trnh quc gia v nc bao gm cc quyn
cam kt v nc, kim tra cht lng nc, bo v phn phi nc v tng hp thng
tin t cc quy hoch lu vc sng. Chng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun nc
cng nu cc iu kin hin ti, nhng hot ng cn lm v nhng bin php d kin
hng dn cc hot ng c nh hng n phm vi ton quc trong tng lai.
Quan trng hn, chng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun nc phi m bo c
nhng hot ng cp Chnh ph nhm thng nht cc k hoch v chng trnh lin
quan n nc ca tt c cc c quan Chnh ph, k c pht trin th, cng nghip,
ti tiu, thu in, m v cc pht trin t nhn.
C s ca vic lp chng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun nc l cc mc
tiu quc gia c lin quan n s dng khai thc ngun nc bao gm:
Xo i gim ngho;
Tng trng kinh t;
Pht trin khu vc;
Duy tr mi trng lnh mnh;
An ninh quc gia...

Vi cc mc tiu k hoch chung ca quc gia, cc mc tiu v ngun nc cp
quc gia thng bao gm cc vn sau:
- Ti u ho nhng li ch a mc tiu t ti nguyn nc, t ai v cc ti
nguyn thin nhin khc
- Ti u ho sn xut in nng trong khun kh nhng hn ch khc
- Phng chng l lt
- Cung cp nc thch ng cho dn sinh v cng nghip
- Duy tr cht lng nc theo cc tiu chun cht lng xc lp
- Duy tr mi trng bn vng theo nhng hng dn t ra
- Pht trin giao thng thu v duy tr pht trin thy sn
- m bo kh nng bn vng ti chnh ca cc d n v chng trnh.

2.3.2. Quy hoch lu vc v ngun nc
Quy hoch ngun nc cp lu vc vch ra chnh sch v chng trnh v nc
trn mt lu vc sng nhm khai thc hiu qu v hp l ti nguyn nc trn lu vc.
Mc ch ca Quy hoch lu vc l a ra hng dn m bo s dng c
hiu qu ngun nc trn lu vc nhm p ng tt nht cc mc tiu v mc ch
quc gia v vng lnh th. Quy hoch lu vc v th phi bao gm mt ti liu xc
nh, la chn v k hoch thc hin cc d n, quy ch v cam kt v nc. Quy
hoch ny tng hp tt c cc d liu thch hp hin c lp thnh vn bn tt c cc d
n ang tn ti, cc quy nh v cam kt v nc, a ra cc phng n qun l t
chc v vt cht cc ngun nc ph hp vi cc mc tiu v mc ch ra. Cc
iu kin s dng nc v cc phng n c lp theo thi hn hin ti, 10 nm,
25 nm v 50 nm. Do nhng d liu thu thp c ngy cng tng cng vi s thay
i v mc tiu nn Quy hoch lu vc phi c thay i v cp nht thng k. Quy
hoch lu vc s l vn bn chnh thc hng dn mi hot ng quy hoch ca Chnh
ph v khu vc t nhn ca tt c cc ngnh c th s dng hay tc ng n cc
ngun nc ca lu vc.
Phm vi ca quy hoch lu vc s cp n mi ngun nc trong lu vc v
s dng cc ngun nc ny trong cng nh ngoi phm vi lu vc. Khi lp cc quy
hoch lu vc cn xem xt trong mi quan h s lin i vi cc lu vc khc.
Cc mc tiu v mc ch m pht trin ngun nc lu vc thng hng ti
bao gm:
a. Qun l cc ngun nc theo cch nhm m bo ti a ho cc li ch kinh t
x hi v mi trng trong sch c nu trong cc mc tiu quc gia.
b. Hon thnh hoc tin hnh cc d n v chng trnh ph hp vi lut php v
quy nh Quc gia cng nh cc lch trnh t ra nhm p ng cc nhu cu ph thuc
vo nc.
H thng chnh sch nh hng n quy hoch nc lu vc sng c th bao
gm:
Cc quy nh php lut v nc, thit k cng trnh v qun l ngun nc;
Quy nh v th t u tin i vi cc i tng dng nc;
Cc chnh sch m bo bn vng v mi trng;
Quy nh cc loi ph hay u i c lin quan n cc dch v v nc: cp
nc, ti, tiu, phng l..., mc p ng mi chi ph hot ng
qun l khai thc ngun nc;
Cc quy nh lin quan n la chn v vn hnh cc cng trnh ph hp
vi cc tho thun v cam kt php l ca lu vc, Quc gia v quc t;
Quy nh m bo s cng bng gia cc i tng s dng nc...

Quy hoch lu vc v Chng trnh v nc cp quc gia b sung cho nhau, c
s ph thuc hai chiu ln nhau. Nhng chi tit v ti nguyn nc v tim nng
pht trin ca quy hoch lu vc s cung cp cho Chng trnh v nc cp quc gia.
Trong khi , cc quyt nh iu chnh v chnh sch, kinh t v cng trnh xut pht
t Chin lc quc gia v pht trin ngun nc phi c phn nh trong quy hoch
lu vc.

2.3.3. Quy hoch chuyn ngnh hoc cc quy hoch cp tiu vng
Quy hoch ngun nc cp tiu vng l cc quy hoch chi tit c th cho mt
vng thuc mt lu vc sng hoc mt phn lnh th nm trong quy hoch lin lu vc.
Quy hoch chuyn ngnh l quy hoch chi tit cho mt i tng khai thc
ngun nc no : Quy hoch phng l, quy hoch khai thc thu nng, quy hoch
cp nc cho nng nghip... Trong thc t mt quy hoch thng c lp theo
nguyn tc li dng tng hp v c gi l quy hoch a mc tiu.
Hai loi quy hoch ny thng c tin hnh ring r v chnh n s l c s
cho vic lp quy hoch lu vc v xy dng cc chng trnh pht trin ngun nc
cp quc gia. Mt khc, khi cc quy hoch lu vc v chng trnh pht trin ngun
nc cp quc gia c xc lp th nhng quy hoch vng v quy hoch chuyn ngnh
phi c thc hin trong khun kh ca quy hoch lu vc v quy hoch quc gia.
2.3.4. Hai giai on lp quy hoch
Quy hoch lu vc v chng trnh quc gia v pht trin ngun nc c xy
dng theo nhiu giai on khc nhau nhm hon chnh cc quy hoch c lp. Tuy
nhin, quy hoch lu vc v chng trnh pht trin ngun nc cp quc gia thng

c thc hin theo hai giai on: giai on th nht l quy hoch khung; giai on
th hai l quy hoch ton b. Vic thc hin theo hai giai on s gim c thi gian
v kinh ph thc hin quy hoch chi tit khi m phng n quy hoch tng th cha
c lm r.
2.3.4.1. Giai on 1: Quy hoch khung v ngun nc
a. Quy hoch khung lu vc
Quy hoch khung v ngun nc c th coi l bc quy hoch s b v ngun
nc trn lu vc sng, bao gm cc ni dung chnh nh sau:
Ti liu v cc mc tiu c th vng lu vc trong khun kh quc gia
Tin hnh nh gi ngun nc
c tnh nhu cu nc hin nay v trong tng lai
Chun b cn bng nc v nhng nhu cu nc trong tng lai
Tm tt s pht trin hin ti, s pht trin d kin trong tng lai, t vch
ra cc la chn cho quy hoch.
b. Chng trnh khung pht trin ngun nc cp quc gia
Chng trnh khung pht trin ngun nc cp quc gia bao gm cc ni dung
chnh nh sau:
Kim tra v nng cp v mc ch v chnh sch v ngun nc quc gia
Tm tt v tng hp quy hoch lu vc thy nhu cu trong tng lai v
nhng khu vc c s thiu ht tim nng. T c phng hng iu chnh
i vi cc quy hoch lu vc
Xc nh u tin hng u pht trin trong tng lai v cc yu cu trong quy
hoch
nh gi Lut hin hnh, quy nh, quy tc hot ng v thit lp th ch
Xy dng ti liu v chng trnh nc cp quc gia v ra cc khuyn
ngh.

2.3.4.2. Giai on 2: Hon tt quy hoch v ngun nc
y l giai on nghin cu chi tit cc quy hoch da trn nhng ti liu nghin
cu giai on 1. Cc ni dung chnh trong giai on ny c lit k nh sau.
a. i vi quy hoch lu vc
nh gi chn lc v ngun nc phc v cho quy hoch chi tit
Nng cp c tnh nhu cu nc (hin nay v trong tng lai) thc hin
giai on 1
Tin hnh m phng h thng ngun nc, tnh ton cn bng nc v nhng
nhu cu nc trong tng lai
Hnh thnh cc phng n quy hoch, chng trnh la chn pht trin, qun
l v bo v mi trng cho ngun nc v nhng la chn c khuyn
ngh c li.

b. i vi chng trnh pht trin ngun nc cp quc gia
Kim tra v nng cp phm vi, mc ch v chnh sch quy hoch ngun
nc quc gia
Tm tt v thng nht quy hoch lu vc vo quy hoch quc gia, th hin
nhng nhu cu trong tng lai, xc nh quyn, tim nng lin lu vc v
tim nng pht trin
Chun b u tin hng u cho pht trin v vch cc phng n c th
nh gi li Lut hin hnh, quy nh, quy tc hot ng quyn s dng
nc v thit lp th ch
Tp hp cc ti liu ni trn vo quy hoch ngun nc quc gia v ra
khuyn ngh.

2.4. Ni dung v cc bc c bn lp quy hoch ngun nc
2.4.1. Kim k nh gi ti nguyn nc
y l ni dung rt quan trng nhm nh gi c tim nng, tnh cht ca
ngun nc. Trn c s hoch nh chin lc khai thc ngun nc v h thng
chnh sch qun l ngun nc, m bo s pht trin bn vng ca mt vng hoc lu
vc sng. Cng tc kim k, nh gi ti nguyn nc bao gm:
a) nh gi tr lng nc mt, nc ngm, trong tr lng nc mt
c nh gi theo cc c trng dng chy sng ngi, c im ngun
nc v cn bng nc
b) nh gi kh nng khai thc nc mt v nc ngm
c) nh gi cht lng nc
d) D bo s thay i ngun nc mt v nc ngm trong tng lai
e) Tnh ton cn bng nc h thng v lu vc.

2.4.2. Xc nh nhng yu cu v nc
Nhng yu cu v nc bao gm:
Yu cu nc cho nng nghip
Yu cu nc cho pht trin cng nghip
Yu cu v cht lng nc
Yu cu phng l, tiu ng v gim nh thin tai do l lt gy ra
Yu cu khai thc thy nng
Yu cu nc cho giao thng thy, gii tr, du lch

Nhng yu cu lin quan n ci to mi trng
Yu cu nc sinh thi
nh gi nh hng ca pht trin dn sinh kinh t n cht lng nc.

2.4.3. Hoch nh chin lc v phng n khai thc ngun nc
Quy hoch ngun nc c thit lp theo cc giai on khc nhau, mi mt giai
on tip theo cc nghin cu s chi tit hn giai on trc. Ni dung chnh ca mt
quy hoch theo cc giai on bao gm:
- Hoch nh chin lc khai thc ti nguyn nc, v nghin cu cc
phng php khai thc kh thi v hp l. Trn c s hnh thnh cc mc tiu khai
thc h thng v thit lp h thng ch tiu nh gi h thng.
- Thit lp cc phng n v bin php cng trnh c th, phn tch tnh kh
thi ca cc phng n cng trnh, bao gm cc vn kinh t v k thut. Trong giai
on ny cn thit phi s dng cc m hnh m phng nh gi kh nng t c
nhng ch tiu t ra. Trn c s kt qu nghin cu c th iu chnh cc mc tiu
ban u cng vi h thng ch tiu khai thc h thng. Hai qu trnh ny c lp li
nhiu ln cho n khi xc nh c mt chin lc v mc tiu tng i hp l.
- La chn cc phng n c th v bin php cng trnh v thit k h thng
theo cc phng n quy hoch.
- Phn tch v xc nh chin lc pht trin h thng, bao gm c chin lc
pht trin h thng cng trnh v chin lc s dng ngun nc trong tng lai.
Trong giai on ny cn ch n kh nng huy ng vn trong sut thi k quy
hoch. Phn tch hiu ch kinh t ca qu trnh pht trin h thng la chn chin
lc ti u.
- Phn tch mt cch y cc mc tiu khc: vn x hi chnh tr, vn
ho v.v T , khng loi tr kh nng c th phi iu chnh li mc tiu ban u.

2.4.4. Xy dng h thng ch tiu nh gi quy hoch
Nh trnh by trn, nhim v ca quy hoch ngun nc l xc nh mt
cn bng hp l trong quy hoch, thit k, iu khin v qun l ngun nc. Mt cn
bng c gi l hp l theo quan im hin i, phi t c cc tiu chun chnh
sau y:
1) Phi p ng ti a cc yu cu v nc trong vng nghin cu;
2) m bo s cn bng pht trin bn vng ca vng hoc lu vc sng;
3) Phi t c tnh hiu qu cao ca cc bin php khai thc v tnh kh thi
ca cc d n quy hoch. N ph thuc vo cc iu kin k thut v kh nng huy
ng vn ca nh nc, tc l ph thuc vo trnh pht trin kinh t ca quc gia;
4) t c tnh mm do ca d n, tc l s thch ng ca quy hoch i vi
nhng iu chnh v mc tiu khai thc v s dng nc trong tng lai nu c;
5) C tin cy cao, tc l xc sut ca s sai khc gia nhng thay i trong
tng lai so vi quy hoch ban u l nh nht.

2.4.5. M hnh ho h thng ngun nc
M hnh ton l cng c quan trng trong qu trnh phn tch h thng khi xy
dng cc phng n quy hoch v qun l ngun nc. Bi vy, vic thit lp cc m
hnh ton cho h thng ngun nc l khng th thiu c trong quy hoch v qun
l ngun nc. Cc m hnh ton cn c thit lp bao gm:
Xy dng cc m hnh m phng h thng tu thuc vo cc mc tiu khai
thc v h thng cc ch tiu nh gi
Xy dng cc m hnh cn bng nc h thng, bao gm cc m hnh v
lng v cht, nhm tr gip cho cng tc qun l ngun nc
Cc m hnh ti u ho c thit lp c s dng trong nh gi hiu qu
cc phng n quy hoch.

Thit lp v la chn m hnh m phng l khu quyt nh cht lng ca bi
ton quy hoch. M hnh m phng bao gm s m phng cc qu trnh vt l ca h
thng v m hnh hot ng ca h thng. Cc m hnh m phng qu trnh vt l ca
h thng ngun nc rt a dng, cc m phng cn c thit lp c th bao gm:
M hnh tnh ton dng chy sng ngi, bao gm m hnh tt nh v cc m
hnh ngu nhin
M hnh tnh ton nc ngm
M hnh xc nh cc nhu cu v nc, c bit l nh ton nhu cu nc cho
nng nghip
M hnh chuyn ti nc trn h thng sng v knh
M hnh tnh ton iu tit nc trong h thng h cha
M hnh tnh ton tiu
M hnh tnh ton nhim mn v truyn cht
Cc m hnh tnh ton chuyn ti ph sa v din bin lng dn v ca sng.
Nhng m hnh trn l nhng m hnh thnh phn m t mt qu trnh ring
r. Khi phn tch h thng ngun nc phi xy dng cc m hnh m phng,
l s lin kt cc m hnh trn theo mc tiu ca bi ton t ra i vi h
thng c nghin cu.
2.4.6. Phn tch nh gi cc phng n quy hoch
1) Phn tch hiu qu d n thng qua cc m hnh ti u kt hp vi phng
php m phng.

2) nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca cc d n quy hoch.
Khi thit lp cc d n quy hoch h thng ngun nc c th s dng cc ch
tiu nh gi hiu qu kinh t, cc tiu chun v bo v mi trng, pht trin dn
sinh, cc yu cu v chnh tr x hi. Khi nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca cc phng n
quy hoch, phi xut pht t hai quan im khc nhau: quan im ti chnh v quan
im kinh t. Cng vi n l s phn tch kinh t v phn tch ti chnh ca mt d n.
3) nh gi tc ng ca d n n mi trng: Hiu qu kinh t ca d n l
ch tiu quan trng, nhng n c th khng c thc thi nu tc ng xu n mi
trng. nh gi tc ng n mi trng ca mt d n quy hoch bao gm:
S tc ng n mi trng nc, s thay i tiu kh hu nu c
nh hng n cc hot ng dn sinh kinh t ca vng d n hoc c cc
vng ln cn khi d n c thc hin
nh hng n mi trng sinh thi
Tc ng v mt vn ho x hi, tp qun, nh hng v mt an ninh quc
gia, v c cc vn chnh tr.

2.4.7. Quyt nh
Quyt nh phng n quy hoch gm nhng ni dung sau:
Quyt nh quy hoch di hn v ngn hn.
Quyt nh qu trnh hot ng ca cc d n - Chin lc v trnh t u t
pht trin.
Xy dng h thng chnh sch qun l s dng ngun nc m bo s pht
trin bn vng ca vng hoc lu vc.
Thit lp cc m hnh qun l ngun nc.

2.5. Khung lut php v th ch trong qun l ti nguyn nc

Nc l mt ti nguyn thit yu v quan trng ca quc gia nn vic qun l ti
nguyn nc cn c thc hin trn c s xy dng khung th ch v lut php ph
hp vi tnh hnh thc t ca tng quc gia.
2.5.1. Lut Ti nguyn nc v nhng vn bn di lut
2.5.1.1. Lut Ti nguyn nc
S pht trin thnh cng hay khng ca mt quc gia ph thuc vo nng lc
qun l cc ngun ti nguyn thin nhin ch cht ca quc gia , trong c ti
nguyn nc l ti nguyn quan trng th hai sau ti nguyn con ngi. Lut nc
c coi l mt vn bn php l nhm bo v ngun nc v s dng hp l ngun
nc. nc ta trong nhng nm qua tng bc xy dng v hon thin dn khung
php l i vi qun l ti nguyn. Quc hi thng qua Lut Ti nguyn nc ngy 20
thng 5 nm 1998 v c Ch tch nc k ban hnh ngy 1 thng 6 nm 1998.
Lut Ti nguyn nc ca nc ta c xy dng da trn chnh sch v nc
ca quc gia c xt n cc kinh nghim v bi hc v lut Ti nguyn nc ca cc
nc khc trn th gii. Ni dung ca Lut Ti nguyn nc phn nh c phn ln
nhng quan im v nguyn tc v qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc m quc t
khuyn co phi thc hin.
2.5.1.2. Cc vn bn di lut
thc hin Lut Ti nguyn nc, Chnh ph cn ban hnh cc vn bn nhm
c th ho nhng iu c ghi trong lut. Nhng vn bn di lut bao gm cc Ngh
nh, cc Quy nh v hot ng qun l ngun nc, cc Php lnh ca Nh nc lin
quan n bo v ngun nc. Vit Nam ban hnh mt s Php lnh bao gm: Php
lnh khai thc v bo v cng trnh thy li sa i; Php lnh iu; Php lnh
phng chng lt bo v.v...
2.5.2. Khung th ch qun l ti nguyn nc
qun l nc mt cch c hiu qu cn thit phi hnh thnh h thng th ch
qun l ti nguyn nc. Mi quc gia c th xy dng khung th ch cho ph hp vi
tnh hnh ca tng nc. Tuy nhin, khung th ch thng l nhng quy nh v mt t
chc trong qun l ngun nc v vn x hi ho trong quy hoch v qun l ngun
nc. Cc quy nh v mt t chc bao gm phng thc qun l v t chc hnh
chnh tham gia vo qu trnh qun l nc. Hin nay c hai phng thc qun l nc:
qun l nc theo a phn hnh chnh v phng thc qun l nc theo lu vc
sng. Qun l nc theo lu vc sng l mt phng thc tin b v hiu qu nht. Bi
v lu vc sng l mt h thng nht bao gm khng gian khp kn t ngun ti ca
sng, trn din ra tt c cc hot ng t to ngun n khai thc, s dng v bo
v ti nguyn nc ca lu vc. Khc vi qun l ti nguyn nc theo a bn hnh
chnh, qun l ti nguyn nc theo lu vc sng l iu kin cn thit khai thc v
s dng bn vng ti nguyn nc lu vc sng. thc hin m hnh ny cn thnh
lp t chc qun l lu vc sng, U ban sng M Kng l mt v d in hnh ca
loi t chc ny.
M hnh qun l ti nguyn nc theo lu vc sng l mt bc tin mi, c
nhiu u im hin ang c p dng ngy cng ph bin trn th gii thc hin
mc tiu ca pht trin bn vng.
2.5.3. S tham gia ca cng ng
Trong qun l ngun nc vai tr ca cng ng l rt quan trng v n c
cp trong lut Ti nguyn nc. Vai tr ca cng ng khng dng ch h c
tham gia vo qu trnh khai thc v bo v ngun nc m mong mun ca h l c
tham gia quyt nh k hoch, thm ch tham gia u t di cc dng thch hp. Cc

h s dng nc v nhng ngi hng li ni chung cn c o to c bn v k
thut, qun l ti chnh. Hin nay, cc t chc v nc thng to iu kin cc hi
dng nc c tham gia cc lp tp hun trong thi gian ngn gip cc t chc
a phng t khc phc c im yu trong qun l ngun nc ca mnh. Vit
Nam nng cao hiu qu khai thc s dng ti nguyn nc, trong nhng nm gn
y s tham gia ca cng ng trong qun l ti nguyn nc trn lu vc sng
c Nh nc rt quan tm.

2.5.4. Vn gii trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc
Ph n l lc lng thng xuyn v trc tip c lin quan n vic s dng
nc. i vi gia nh thng h l ngi thit thi hn nam gii. Vn nc sch
c lin quan n sc kho cng ng c bit l sc kho ca ph n. Ph n c t c
hi c tip cn vi cc thng tin c lin quan n vic s dng nc so vi nam gii,
c bit i vi cc nc chm pht trin. Bi vy, vic cung cp cc thng tin i vi
ph n l rt cn thit thng qua cc lp tp hun v gii trong lnh vc qun l nc.
Thng qua cc lp tp hun v gii, ph n s ng vai tr quan trng trong vic bo
v ngun nc.

2.6. Yu cu pht trin bn vng ti nguyn nc
2.6.1. Khi nim v pht trin bn vng
Pht trin bn vng l mt khi nim mi v s pht trin xut hin trong vi
thp k gn y khi m mu thun gia mi trng v pht trin tr thnh su sc
nhiu nc trn th gii.
Pht trin l quy lut ca lch s tt yu ca x hi loi ngi. Th k 20 l th
k pht trin v bo ca khoa hc k thut v kinh t, cng l th k bng n dn s
trn ton cu. Tc pht trin kinh t v s bng n v dn s khin cho nhiu ti
nguyn thin nhin b s dng qu mc ang tin ti nguy c b cn kit, nhim mi
trng gia tng, e do s pht trin lu bn ca nhn loi. T , vn ang c
quan tm l pht trin nh th no con ngi ca th h hm nay cng nh trong
tng lai c c cuc sng hnh phc c v vt cht v tinh thn, chnh l Pht
trin bn vng. Ni mt cch khc, Pht trin bn vng l s pht trin nhm p ng
nhu cu ca th h hm nay m khng lm tn hi n kh nng p ng nhu cu ca
cc th h tng lai.
Khi nim v pht trin bn vng bt u c cp n t nhng nm 70
ca th k 20 v c Hi ng th gii v Mi trng v Pht trin (WCED) trnh
by nh l mt nh ngha trong cun Tng lai ca chng ta: S pht trin nhm
p ng nhu cu ca th h ngy nay m khng lm tn hi n kh nng p ng nhu
cu ca cc th h tng lai. Pht trin bn vng bao gm cc mt chnh sau y:
Bn vng v mt mi trng
Bn vng v kinh t ti chnh
Bn vng v x hi
Bn vng v th ch chnh sch
Bn vng v nng lc v tr tu
S pht trin bn vng v kinh t - x hi c nh gi bng 4 ch tiu chnh
nh sau:
1) V kinh t, trong x hi bn vng, vic u t pht trin phi em li li
nhun v tng tng sn phm quc gia.
2) V ti nguyn thin nhin, l loi ti nguyn khng th hoc kh ti to
c, v vy cn phi s dng trong phm vi khi phc c v s lng v
cht lng hoc s dng mt cch tit kim v b sung thng xuyn bng
con ng t nhin hoc nhn to.
3) V cht lng mi trng: Mi trng khng kh, nc, t v cnh quan
lin quan n sc kho, tin nghi, yu cu thm m, tm l ca con ngi
nhn chung khng b cc hot ng ca con ngi lm nhim; Cc ngun
ph thi phi c x l, ti ch kp thi.
4) V vn ho - x hi, x hi bn vng phi l x hi trong pht trin kinh
t phi i i vi cng bng x hi, gio dc, o to, y t; phc li x hi
phi c chm lo, cc gi tr vn ho v o c ca dn tc v cng ng
phi c bo v v pht huy.

Mt trong 4 iu kin trn b vi phm th s pht trin ca x hi s c nguy c
mt bn vng.
Thng 6 nm 1992 Hi ngh thng nh v Mi trng v Pht trin ln u
tin c t chc ti Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Hi ngh nht tr ly pht trin bn
vng lm mc tiu ca ton nhn loi tin vo th k 21. Hi ngh c tho thun
v bn vn kin quan trng: Tuyn ngn cc nguyn tc, Tuyn b Rio de Janeiro v
Chng trnh hnh ng, Lch trnh Th k 21, Cng c khung v bin i kh hu v
a dng sinh hc.
2.6.2. Pht trin bn vng ti nguyn nc
Mt trong nhng iu kin m bo s pht trin bn vng l s s dng hp l
v tit kim ngun ti nguyn thin nhin. Nc cng l mt loi ti nguyn qu gi
ang c nguy c b cn kit v suy thoi do s khai thc khng hp l v tc ng xu
ca cc hot ng kinh t ca con ngi. Bi vy, pht trin bn vng ti nguyn nc
l vn c t ra mt cch cp bch i vi tt c cc quc gia trn th gii.

Pht trin bn vng ngun nc l s pht trin nhm p ng nhu cu v nc
ca th h ngy nay m khng lm tn hi n kh nng p ng nhu cu nc ca cc
th h tng lai.
Pht trin bn vng ti nguyn nc c coi l mt nguyn tc trong khai thc
s dng cng nh qun l ngun nc. m bo pht trin bn vng ti nguyn nc,
khi lp cc quy hoch pht trin ngun nc phi tun th nhng nguyn tc sau y:
1) Ngun nc phi c khai thc s dng mt cch hp l, va phi m bo
ti a cc yu cu v nc ng thi khng c vt qu mt gii hn no
c gi l ngng khai thc ngun nc c kh nng hi phc hay
ti to theo chu trnh thu vn vn c trong t nhin.
2) Ngun nc phi c bo v, m bo khng b cn kit v cht lng nc
khng b suy thoi. Cn c bin php kim sot v hn ch nhim nc,
khng th cho tnh trng nhim nc tr thnh trm trng lm gim
lng nc sch ca con ngi.
3) Cn c nhng bin php cng trnh hoc phi cng trnh phc hi v ti to
ngun nc. Cc bin php bo v rng v ti to rng l mt trong nhng
bin php tch cc bo v ngun nc.
4) Mi quc gia cn thit lp khung th ch qun l ngun nc mt cch hiu
qu nht. Cc chng trnh v nc cp quc gia cn c thc hin mi
quc gia.
5) Qun l ngun nc phi m bo tnh cng ng v tnh cng bng. Phi c
s tham gia ca cng ng v cc thnh phn c lin quan n s dng nc.

2.7. Phng php tip cn h thng trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun nc

Vn quy hoch v qun l ngun nc l mt vn phc tp. Khi m mc
khai thc ca con ngi i vi h thng ngun nc cn mc thp, th vic ra
quyt nh trong cc phng n quy hoch, iu hnh h thng c th ch cn n
nhng phng php truyn thng. Ngi ra quyt nh ch cn da trn mt s hu hn
nhng nghin cu c th hoc thc hin mt s phng n tnh ton khng phc tp
ra quyt nh. Nhng n khi s khai thc v can thip ca con ngi vo h thng
ngun nc tng ln, th cc bi ton h thng tr nn rt phc tp. Ngi lm quyt
nh phi gii quyt mt bi ton c dung lng ln cc thng tin. Trong h thng tn
ti nhiu mi quan h cn phi gii quyt, nhiu mc tiu khai thc cn phi cp
n. Trong trng hp nh vy, nhng phng php truyn thng t ra khng cn c
hiu qu na. iu i hi phi c nhng phng php phn tch hin i, vi s x
l thng tin nhanh gip ngi lm quyt nh c nhiu c hi la chn cc quyt nh
hp l. M hnh ton hc cng vi s pht trin ca cng c tnh ton nhanh gip
ch cho lm thay i v cht trong cc nghin cu v h thng ngun nc. l
phng php phn tch h thng.
Trong nhng nm gn y, l thuyt phn tch h thng c p dng trong
cc bi ton quy hoch, thit k v iu khin h thng ngun nc. Mc d s p
dng l thuyt phn tch h thng i vi cc h thng ngun nc mi ch bt u
vo nhng nm 70, nhng to ra s thay i v cht trong nghin cu, qui hoch,
qun l h thng thu li v tin mt bc kh xa so vi nhng phng php truyn
thng c p dng trc y. Hin nay, l thuyt phn tch h thng c ng
dng rng ri trong qui hoch ngun nc nhiu quc gia. Tuy nhin, nc ta cng
vic ny mi ch bt u trong nhng nm gn y.
Hin nay, cc ti liu khoa hc trn th gii lin quan n lnh vc quy hoch v
khai thc ngun nc thng c trnh by theo quan im h thng vi s ng dng
l thuyt phn tch h thng. Bi vy, tip cn l thuyt phn tch h thng khng ch
cn l vn nhn thc m l mt yu cu cp thit i vi ngi lm cng tc qui
hoch v iu khin h thng ngun nc.
Cc phng php tip cn vi bi ton quy hoch v qun l ngun nc vi s
ng dng l thuyt phn tch h thng rt a dng, trong m hnh m phng c
coi l cng c chnh trong qu trnh phn tch v tip cn h thng. y l bc i u
tin trong phn tch v thit k h thng ngun nc. Cc m hnh ti u ho c ng
dng rng ri v c coi l mt cng c phn tch h thng. Nguyn l tip cn tng
bc c coi l mt nguyn tc trong qu trnh phn tch h thng i vi cc h
thng bt nh, trong c h thng ngun nc.
Khi phn tch h thng ngun nc cn lm r nhng vn chnh sau y:
- Hiu qu kinh t ca phng n quy hoch
- Hiu qu pht trin kinh t x hi ca quy hoch
- Tc ng n mi trng
- S m bo v nhu cu sinh thi
- S m bo v pht trin bn vng

2.8. Vai tr ca m hnh ho, nhng u im v hn ch ca n

M hnh ho h thng ng vai tr quyt nh khi lp cc quy hoch ngun
nc. M hnh ho h thng bao gm m hnh m phng v m hnh ti u. M hnh
m phng m t cc qu trnh vt l v hot ng ca h thng, m hnh ti u thit
lp nhm tm ra phng n tt nht trong s cc phng n quy hoch.

2.8.1. M hnh m phng h thng
M phng h thng l phng thc m t mt h thng thc bng mt h thng
khng thc do ngi nghin cu to ra. Trn h thng nhn to, cc qu trnh vt l
ca m hnh thc c m t gn ng hoc tng t. Cc quy lut vn ng ca h
thng thc c suy ra t nhng kt qu nghin cu trn h thng do ngi nghin
cu to ra.
i vi mt h thng bt k, vic xc nh mc tiu ban u ch l nh tnh,
mc t c ca mc tiu t ra cn c kim tra bng tnh ton vi cc m hnh
m phng xc lp. Cng vi mc tiu khai thc h thng cn xc nh bin php
cng trnh v quy m cc cng trnh cn c xy dng. Ngoi ra, cng cn phi
khng nh kh nng p ng ca h thng i vi cc yu cu khai thc h thng. Tt
c nhng vn ny ch c lm r khi s dng m hnh m phng trong qu trnh
tnh ton v phn tch. Kt qu tnh ton bng m hnh m phng cho php s b quyt
nh nhng vn chnh sau y:
1. Quyt nh mc tiu khai thc h thng bao gm nhng yu cu v nc
c chp nhn v mc p ng i vi mc tiu khai thc t ra. Lng
ho mc tiu khai thc bng cc hm mc tiu v cc rng buc v mc tiu.
2. Phng thc khai thc ngun nc trn h thng.
3. Cu trc h thng bao gm cu trc h thng cng trnh, h thng cc yu
cu v nc v mi quan h ca chng trn h thng.
4. Tp cc phng n c th: cc phng n cng trnh v cc phng n khai
thc s dng ngun nc.
5. Cc gii hn v rng buc ca h thng: c m t bng cc biu thc rng
buc ton hc.

2.8.2. M hnh ti u
Khi phn tch h thng trong iu khin, iu khin hoc pht trin h thng, cn
phi xc nh mc tiu ca n. Mc tiu khai thc h thng c m t v lng ho
bng mt s cc ch tiu no , gi l h thng ch tiu nh gi. H thng ch tiu
nh gi l cc ch tiu m h thng cn t c bao gm hiu qu khai thc do h
thng mang li v cc rng buc k thut, kinh t v mi trng m n phi tho mn.
H thng ch tiu nh gi bi vy c lng ho theo nhng dng rt khc nhau, c
th khi qut mt s dng c bn nh sau:
+ H thng ch tiu nh gi l mt hoc mt s hu hn cc hm s m n cn
c lm cc tr, c dng:
Fj(X) max (min)
vi j =1, m; m l s hm mc tiu (2-1)
Cc hm Fj(X) trong trng hp ny c gi l hm mc tiu.
Trong X l mt vec t cc bin s no ca h thng:
X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
)
+ H thng ch tiu nh gi c m t bng mt hoc mt s hu hn cc ng
thc hoc bt ng thc. Cc biu thc c vit i vi hm ra ca h thng Y(t).
Dng tng qut ca loi h thng ch tiu ny c vit nh sau:
F
j
(Y(t)) bj vi j = 1, m (2-2)
Trong F l hm biu din qua hm ra ca h thng Y(t).
Biu thc (2-2) c vit mt cch tng qut, tng ng vi du "" c th c
thay bng du " = " hoc bng du "".

Trong m l s ch tiu trong h thng ch tiu nh gi. Cc hm Fj(Y(t))
trong trng hp ny c coi l cc biu thc rng buc v mc tiu.
+ H thng ch tiu nh gi c dng hn hp, tc l mt s ch tiu nh gi
c m t bng cc hm mc tiu dng (2-1), s cn li c m t nh mt rng
buc ca h thng v mc tiu, c dng (2-2).
H thng ch tiu nh gi c dng cc hm (2-1) v (2-2), l tiu chun nh
gi cht lng ca h thng vi cc mc tiu t ra, bi vy c gi l cc hm
cht lng, c trnh by trong nhiu ti liu.

Cc thng s
ca h thng
M hnh dng chy
(M hnh thu vn,
thu lc h thng)
M hnh
m phng
M hnh
ti u
PHN TCH VA
QUYT |NH

KHI M HNH M PHNG
KHI TI U HO

Hnh 2-1: S kt hp phng php m phng v phng php ti u ha
(B. G. Priazinskaia: M hnh ton trong lnh vc ngun nc, Nayka - Mascova, 1985)
M hnh ti u l cng c phn tch hiu qu kinh t ca phng n quy hoch,
cng c th l nhng hiu qu khng tnh bng tin.
Vic s dng m hnh ti u c u im l tm c nghim tt nht ca phng
n quy hoch. Tuy nhin, trong thc t c nhng hn ch nht nh, l:

- Khng phi bi ton no quy hoch cng c th m t bng mt m hnh ti u
- Trong nhiu trng hp bi ton ti u khng th gii c do nhng hn ch
ca phng php ton hc
- C th nghim ca bi ton ti u tm c ch l nghim ti u cc b v do
c th b st cc phng n tt hn.
Trong trng hp phng php ti u ho c nhng hn ch nht nh ngi ta
s dng phng php m phng. Phng php m phng l phng php s dng m
hnh m phng phn tch hiu qu ca tng phng n quy hoch, t tm ra
phng n c li nht. Nh vy, phng n m phng ch tm phng n gn ti u.
tm phng n tt nht bng phng php m phng cn thit lp cc kch bn v
phng n quy hoch v do c th cng b st cc phng n tt hn do khng to
ra mt khng gian cc phng n mt cch y .
Trong thc t ngi ta thng kt hp hai phng php ny (phng php ti u
ho v phng php m phng) hn ch u nhc im ca tng phng php (xem
s trn hnh 2-1).


Chng 3- Phn tch kinh t... 41

Chng 3

PHN TCH KINH T TRONG QUY HOACH
PHT TRIN NGUN NC

3.1. Nhim v v ni dung phn tch kinh t trong pht trin
ngun nc

Phn tch kinh t d n nhm mc ch trnh c s u t khng hiu qu v
lng ph vo cc d n c xy dng. y l iu c bit quan trng trong nhng
trng hp m tin vn ti tr cho d n c bn mi ang b thiu hoc phi vay
vn ca nc ngoi. Phn tch kinh t l mt trong nhng ch tiu quan trng trong qu
trnh lp v quyt nh thc thi d n. Phn tch kinh t trong quy hoch ngun nc
c cp n trong nhiu ti liu v quy hoch ngun nc (Biswas, A.K, Jellali,
M., and Stout G.E., (eds.) (1993): Water for Sustainable Development in the TWenty-
fist Century,oxford University Press (ISBN 0 19 563303 4)).
Goodman,A.S. Principles of Water Resources Planing. Prentise-Hall, Inc, 1984,
ISBN 0 137 10616 5.
Nhim v ca phn tch kinh t l nh gi hiu qu ca vic s dng khai thc
ngun nc v hiu qu ca vic u t pht trin ngun nc. Trn c s c quyt
sch hp l cho chin lc pht trin ngun nc.
Ni dung c bn ca phn tch kinh t trong pht trin ngun nc bao gm:
- Phn tch xc nh gi tr ca nc i vi cc ngnh s dng tng hp ngun nc
- Phn tch chi ph v li ch i vi cc quy hoch pht trin ngun nc
- nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca cc d n u t pht trin ngun nc
- Hch ton kinh t trong qu trnh qun l khai thc tng hp ngun nc,
trn c s nh gi nc mt cch hp l
- Hoch nh cc chnh sch kinh t trong qun l ngun nc

3.2. Mt s khi nim c bn
3.2.1. Khi nim v phn tch ti chnh v phn tch kinh t
a. Phn tch ti chnh
S phn tch hiu qu u t ca d n theo quan im ti chnh, gi l phn tch
v mt ti chnh. S phn tch v mt ti chnh s xem xt, nh gi chi ph v li ch
m mt n v hoc mt ngi nhn c v thanh ton trong quan h th trng.

Phn tch ti chnh n gin ch l s phn tch li ch gia ngi u t v ngi
s dng trong mi quan h v mt ti chnh. Ngi u t (c th l mt cng ty hoc
chnh ph) s ch quan tm n li ch mang li cho h khi u t vo d n: ai l
ngi tr tin cho h v li ch h thu c l bao nhiu.
V d mt cng ty (hoc nh nc) u t xy dng mt nh my thu in. Nh
u t cn phi nh gi c li ch m h nhn c khi u t vo d n. Li ch
mang li cho nh u t l s tin thu c t bn in trong thi gian khai thc cng
trnh sau khi tr i cc khon chi ph (xy dng cng trnh, qun l, thu nc, cc
li thu khc, n b...). Nh u t cn phn tch lm r hai kha cnh sau:
- Li ch mang li cho cng ty v kh nng thu hi vn khi u t vo d n ny.
- Kh nng chi tr vn vay nu cng ty phi vay vn theo hn nh ca ngn
hng hoc vay vn nc ngoi vi mc li sut n nh trc.
Thng qua phn tch ti chnh, nu s u t mang li li ch khng ln hoc nh
u t khng c kh nng chi tr vn vay theo hn nh th d n c th khng c
u t xy dng.
b. Phn tch kinh t
S phn tch hiu qu u t ca d n theo quan im kinh t gi l phn tch v
mt kinh t. Phn tch v mt kinh t s xem xt mt d n quy hoch mt gc
rng ln hn. N gip c on nhng li ch v chi ph i vi ton b nn kinh t
quc dn.
Cng ly v d mt cng ty (hoc nh nc) u t xy dng mt nh my thy
in. Theo quan im kinh t, Nh nc cn phi nh gi c li ch mang li cho
nn kinh t quc dn khi u t vo d n. Li ch mang li khng phi ch l tin thu
c t bn in m cn bao gm cc li ch kinh t khc: to iu kin pht trin cc
lnh vc kinh t khc, to cng vic lm, v.v... Nh vy, li ch kinh t mang li c
xem xt trong s pht trin chung ca nn kinh t quc dn. Nh u t ch c
hng li ch do bn in m c, li ch ny c th l khng ln nhng li ch mang li
cho nn kinh t quc dn c th l rt ln.
xem xt tnh kh thi ca mt d n, ngoi phn tch v mt k thut cn
thng qua phn tch ti chnh, phn tch kinh t quyt nh xem d n c cn c
u t hay khng. Tt nhin khi phn tch d n cn xem xt nh hng ca n n
cc vn x hi, mi trng, chnh tr, qun s v.v...
3.2.2. Khi nim v chi ph v li ch
a. Theo quan im ti chnh
Theo quan im ti chnh, bt c nhng g lm gim li nhun rng ca mt
cng ty hoc mt c nhn no c gi l chi ph, nhng g lm tng thu nhp rng
ca cng ty hoc mt c nhn gi l li ch.
b. Theo quan im kinh t
Theo quan im kinh t, bt c nhng g lm gim thu nhp quc dn gi l chi
ph, nhng g lm tng thu nhp nn kinh t quc dn gi l li ch.
Chng hn, vic s dng xi mng c s dng cho vic lt knh dn nc ca
cng trnh thu li l gim kh nng sn xut ca nhng lnh vc dch v khc, cui
cng lm gim thu nhp quc dn. Bi vy, vic s dng xi mng trong d n trn l
chi ph i vi nn kinh t quc dn.
Nhng vic s dng xi mng cho vic lt knh cng lm tng sn xut la go
dn ti kt qu lm tng khi lng hng ho v dch v x hi, thu nhp kinh t quc
dn tng ln. Vy vic s dng xi mng lt knh s mang li li ch.
Nhim v ca vic phn tch kinh t l phi nh gi c xem liu nhng li ch
ca d n c ln hn chi ph b ra hay khng.
c. V d
Gi s c d n xy dng mt h cha cp nc ti cho nng nghip.
Theo quan im ti chnh cc chi ph bao gm:
Vn u t xy dng cng trnh
Cc chi ph vn hnh sa cha
Tin gii phng mt bng v n b
Cc loi thu.
Li ch mang li l tin thu c t vic bn nc, tin thu c t vic khai thc
du lch, nui trng thy sn ti lng h.
Theo quan im kinh t cc chi ph c th bao gm:
Vn u t xy dng cng trnh
Cc chi ph vn hnh sa cha
Tin gii phng mt bng v n b
Thit hi kinh t do mt kh nng sn xut phn din tch t dnh cho
lm cng trnh v phn din tch dnh cho gii phng mt bng.
Li ch mang li bao gm:

Sn lng la go tng ln do c cng trnh cp nc ti v lm tng thu
nhp quc dn
Lm tng thu nhp quc dn t vic xut khu la go
Li ch t khai thc lng h do nui trng thu sn v du lch
Lm tng sn phm cho x hi do s thay i tp qun canh tc v thay
i ngnh ngh sn xut ca khu vc di dn
Li ch mang li do gim sc lao ng cho ngi trng la vng c
cp nc. Ngi nng dn s c c hi lm nhng ngh ph khc lm
tng sn phm x hi
Lm tng sc sn xut ca cc lnh vc c lin quan: sn xut xi mng,
st thp, cng nghip ch bin...
Ngoi ra cn c nhng li ch khng tnh c bng tin. l cc vn
v ci thin iu kin mi trng, li ch x hi khc mang li.
Ni chung, vic phn tch chi ph v li ch theo quan im kinh t l rt phc
tp v kh khn hn nhiu so vi vic phn tch ti chnh.

3.2.3. Gi tr v gi c
Gi tr ca mt lng hng ho no chnh l lng sn phm tng thm khi s
dng lng hng ho .
V d gi tr ca mt bao phn bn chnh l lng thc go tng thm sau khi s
dng thm mt bao phn bn. Gi tr tnh bng tin ca mt bao phn bn chnh l s
tin thu c t lng thc go tng thm khi bn chng vi mt gi no .
Nu gi ca bao phn bn bn cao hn gi tr ca n th s c t ngi s dng
loi phn bn . Nu gi ca bao phn bn thp hn gi tr ca n s c nhiu ngi
mua hn.
Trong qu trnh sn xut nu vn u t sn xut mt bao phn bn cao hn gi
tr ca n th vic u t sn xut loi phn bn s khng c li. Mt cch tng t,
nu vn u t cho mt d n thu li cao hn gi tr ca n (l s tng thm ca sn
phm x hi khi c d n ) th vic u t s khng c li v mt kinh t.
Vn cn quan tm l vic nh gi cho sn phm to ra ca mt d n nh th
no. Chng hn i vi d n thu li cn thit phi nh c gi nc sau khi d n
hon thnh. Nu gi nc qu cao v ln hn gi tr ca n th ngi nng dn s
khng s dng nc t d n. Ngc li nu gi nc thp s c nhiu ngi s dng
nc nhng c th vic u t s b l do sut u t cao. Bi vy, vic nh gi nc
theo quan im kinh t l mt vn phc tp v phi c xem xt t cc kha cnh:
- ca ngi u t vo d n thu li
- ca ngi nng dn
- ca chin lc pht trin kinh t ca nh nc.
Mt gi nc c gi l ti u nu n lm tng thu nhp quc dn nhng c th
li khng li i vi ngi u t vo d n thy li. Khi nh nc s c bin php
tr gi cho ngi nng dn hoc b l cho ngi u t vo d n.
Trong phn tch kinh t d n thng s dng hai loi gi: Gi th trng v gi
kinh t.
Gi th trng l mt s c tnh tng i tu thuc vo quy lut gi c ca th
trng. i vi mt loi hng ho no nu c nhiu ngi sn sng mua th c th
c gi cao, ngc li s c gi thp.
S phn tch v mt ti chnh thng s dng gi th trng. S phn tch v mt
kinh t thng phi s dng gi kinh t c chn sao cho c li cho s pht trin
chung ca nn kinh t v mang li nhng li ch v mt x hi v mi trng.

3.2.4. Gi tr thi gian ca ng tin
Nu chng ta cho mt ngi khc vay tin s dng, chng ta c quyn hy vng
s nhn c khon tin li trong tng lai. L do l, nu mt ngi no cho ngi
khc vay tin th ngi b qua c hi s dng khon tin vo mc ch ring
ca mnh. Bi vy, ngi cho vay tin c quyn c nhn bi thng cho s hy sinh
. chnh l tin li.
Khon tin li phi c tr, cho d nn kinh t c chu lm pht hay khng.
Nu c lm pht th li sut s c tnh thm sao cho ngi cho vay sau khi nhn li
s tin ca mnh vn phi c sc mua bng vi sc mua ti thi im cho vay.
Ti thi im cui nm 2000, nu chng ta cho mt ngi no vay mt s
tin 1.000.000 ng vi li sut 10%/nm th sau 5 nm (vo cui nm 2005), ngi
vay phi tr cho chng ta mt khon tin l 1.610.510 ng. S tin phi tr sau 5 nm
c tnh theo php tnh li lu tin, gi l php tnh a hp (xem bng 3-1). Gi li
sut l r (trong v d ny r=10% = 0.1), S
0
l s tin ban u, s tin d n cui mi
nm s l:
- Cui nm th nht: S
1
= S
0
(1+r)
- Cui nm th hai: S
2
= S
0
(1+r)(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
2
- Cui nm th ba: S
3
= S
0
(1+r)
2
(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
3
- Cui nm th t: S
4
= S
0
(1+r)
3
(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
4
- Cui nm th nm: S
5
= S
0
(1+r)
4
(1+r)= S
0
(1+r)
5
Nh vy, n cui nm th nm ngi vay phi tr mt s tin l:S
5
= S
0
(1+r)
5
Mt cch tng qut, nu ngi vay s tin ban u l S
0
th sau n nm ngi
phi tr mt s tin tng cng l S
5
= S
0
(1+r)
n
.

S tin m ngi cho vay nhn c sau 5 nm l 1.610.510 ng thc cht ch
bng 1.000.000 ng ti thi im hin ti cui nm 2000. Vic tnh ton chuyn gi
tr ng tin ti thi im bt k v thi im ban u c gi l php tnh khu hao
(xem tnh ton bng 3-2).
Gi s S
5
l s tin nhn c cui nm th 5, khi gi tr ng tin u
mi nm tng ng l:
- u nm th nm (cui nm th 4): S
4
= S
5
/(1+r)
- u nm th t (cui nm th 3): S
3
= S
5
/(1+r)
2
- u nm th ba (cui nm th 2): S
2
= S
5
/(1+r)
3
- u nm th hai (cui nm th 1): S
1
= S
5
/(1+r)
4
- u nm th nht (thi im ban u): S
0
= S
5
/(1+r)
5

Bng 3-1: Php tnh a hp
Th t
nm
Nm S lng u nm (ng) H s =1+li sut S lng cui nm (ng)
to 1.000.000
t1 2001 1.000.000 1.1 1.100.000
t2 2002 1.100.000 1.1 1.210.000
t3 2003 1.210.000 1.1 1.331.000
t4 2004 1.331.000 1.1 1.464.100
t5 2005 1.464.100 1.1 1.610.510

Nh vy, s tin ngi cho vay nhn c cui nm th 5 (sau 5 nm) l S
5

thc cht ch l S
0
khi tnh quy i v thi im ban u, v tt nhin ngi vay ch
c nhn s tin l S
0
v sau 5 nm phi tr s tin l S
5
.
Trong trng hp tng qut, nu s nm cho vay theo hn nh l n nm th s
tin ngi cho vay nhn c l S
n
v tng ng vi gi tr S
0
ti thi im ban u
xc nh theo cng thc:

n
0 n
S
S
(1 r )
=
+
(3-1)
Nh vy, gi tr ca ng tin khng phi l gi tr bt bin theo thi gian. Khi u
t vo cc d n, cc li ch mang li thng ch thu c sau mt thi gian nht nh
k t khi d n bt u c thc thi. Bi vy, so snh li ch ca d n so vi vn
u t, chng ta cn thc hin php tnh quy i gi tr ng tin v thi im hin ti.
Php tnh quy i gi tr ng tin thi im bt k v thi im hin ti gi l
php tnh khu hao.
Bng 3-2: Php tnh khu hao
Th t
nm
Nm
S lng cui nm
(ng)
H s
S lng u nm
(ng)
t5 2005 1.610.510 1.1 1.464.100
t4 2004 1.464.100 1.1 1.331.000
t3 2003 1.331.000 1.1 1.210.000
t2 2002 1.210.000 1.1 1.100.000
t1 2001 1.100.000 1.1 1.000.000

3.2.5. T l khu hao
Gi tr r trong cc php tnh a hp v php tnh khu hao l s thp phn. Trong
quan h ti chnh, trong giao dch vay vn hoc gi tin vo ngn hng, r c gi l
t l li sut.
Trong lnh v u t pht trin thng phi thc hin cc php tnh khu hao nn
r gi l t l khu hao hay cn gi l t sut khu hao. Trong ti liu ny chng ti s
dng ngn t t l khu hao.
Trong u t pht trin ngi ta s dng t l khu hao a gi tr ca nhng
chi ph v li ch trong tng lai v gi tr ti thi im hin ti phn tch cc
phng n u t.
T l khu hao phn nh mc thu hi vn ti thiu c th chp nhn c i vi
mt d n.
i vi phn tch ti chnh t l khu hao thng lin quan n hot ng ti
chnh ca cng ty hoc nh nc, c lin quan n quan h vn vay ti ngn hng hoc
vn vay ca nc ngoi. T l khu hao khng th nh hn t l li sut vay t
ngn hng.
i vi phn tch kinh t t l khu hao phi phn nh c t l m tin t lu
ng sn c ca nn kinh t quc dn phi c huy ng ti a. T l khu hao theo
quan im kinh t do Nh nc quy nh tu thuc vo trnh pht trin v chin
lc u t pht trin ca nn kinh t quc dn. Vit Nam t l khu hao hin nay
thng c chn 10%/nm.
Trong nhiu trng hp ngi ta gi s dng t l khu hao u i thi gian
x hi, gi tt l t l u i. C s ca lp lun ny l ch ngi ta cho rng x hi
c chiu di thi gian di hn nhiu so vi tng c nhn con ngi hoc cng ty. Ni
mt cch khc vic u t pht trin khng phi cho th h hm nay m cn v s pht
trin x hi trong tng lai ca cc th h mai sau. V vy, t l u i thi gian x hi

l mt t l thp hn. Tt nhin, iu ny cn tu thuc vo mc thu nhp quc dn
ca mi nc v kh nng d tha vn lu ng ca nn kinh t quc dn.
Nu ta gi C
t
l chi ph ti thi im t ca thi gian quy hoch (trong tng lai);
gi B
t
l li ch mang li ca d n ti thi im t trong tng lai. Ta c gi tr ca chi
ph v li ch tnh quy i v thi im hin ti t
0
(thi im bt u thc hin quy
hoch hoc d n) tng ng l C
0
v B
0
:

0
t
0
t t
C
C
(1 r )

=
+
,
0
t
0
t t
B
B
(1 r )

=
+
(3-2)
Nu chn thi im hin ti bng 0 (t
0
= 0) th cng thc (3-2) c vit li
theo dng (3-3) nh sau:

t
0
t
C
C
(1 r)
=
+
,
t
0
t
C
B
(1 r)
=
+
(3-3)

Bng 3-3: Gi tr chi ph v li ch d n tnh quy i v thi im hin ti
Thi gian
t
Chi ph hng nm C
t

(10
6
ng)

Chi ph quy i v thi
im hin ti C
0
(10
6
ng)

Li ch hng
nm B
t
(10
6
ng)

Li ch quy i v thi
im hin ti B
0

(10
6
ng)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1 4.000 3.636.364 0 0.000
2 2.000 1.652.893 0 0.000
3 150 112.697 200 150.263
4 150 102.452 500 375.657
5 150 93.138 1.000 620.921
6 150 84.671 2.000 1.128.948
7 150 76.974 2.000 1.026.316
8 150 69.976 2.000 933.015
9 150 63.615 2.000 848.195
10 150 57.831 2.000 771.087
Tng cng 7.200.000 5.950.611 11.700.000 5.854.402

Nu thi gian quy hoch l T nm thng ly bng tui th ca d n quy hoch
hoc n thun l thi gian hot ng ca d n sau khi c xy dng dng lm tiu
chun phn tch kinh t d n, khi chi ph v li ch tng cng tnh quy i v thi
im hin ti s l:

T
t
t
t 1
C
C
(1 r )
=
=
+

T
t
t
t 1
B
B
(1 r )
=
=
+
(3-4)
Gi s c mt d n thu li vi thi gian quy hoch T nm. Chi ph cho d n
gm 2 phn: Chi ph xy dng cng trnh c thc hin trong 2 nm u vi mc 4 t
ng (nm th nht) v 2 t ng (nm th hai); chi ph qun l v khai thc hng nm
l 150 triu ng k t nm th 3 tr i.
Li ch khai thc t d n bt u t nm th 3 tr i vi s tin thu c hng
nm thng k trong ct (4) bng 3-3. p dng cng thc 3-4 c th tnh c tng chi
ph v li ch 10 nm u tin tnh quy i v thi im hin ti ( u nm th nht)
th hin trong bng 3-3.
Trong bng 3-3: ct (2) l chi ph hng nm; ct (3) l chi ph hng nm c
tnh quy i v thi im hin ti; ct (4) l li ch thu c hng nm; ct (5) l li
ch hng nm c tnh quy i v thi im hin ti.
Theo bng 3-3 tng s tin chi ph hng nm ca 10 nm u tin l 7.200.000
ng, nhng khi tnh quy i v thi im hin ti s l 5.950.611 ng. Cng li ch
tng nm s l 11.700.000 ng nhng khi tnh quy i v thi im hin ti th gi tr
ca n ch tng ng vi s tin l 5.854.402 ng. D rng thy rng, cng trnh
cng nhanh a vo khai thc cng mang li li ch cao v cng nhanh hon vn.

3.3. Cc ch tiu nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca d n

nh gi phng n chp nhn c v mt hiu qu u t c thc hin
thng qua cc ch tiu kinh t c trnh by di y.
3.3.1. Gi tr thu nhp rng ti thi im hin ti NPV (Net Presnt Value)
Gi tr thu nhp rng tnh theo thi im hin ti l gi tr tnh quy i v thi
im hin ti ca mt d n, sau khi tt c chi ph v li ch ca d n c khu
hao vi cng mt t s chn sn. Gi tr thu nhp rng ca d n trong thi gian quy
hoch tnh theo thi im hin ti c xc nh theo cng thc:

T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV B C
(1 r)
=
= =
+
(3-5)
Trong :
B
t
- rng tin thu nhp nm th t (ng);
C
t
- chi ph nm th t;
T- tui th cng trnh hoc thi gian quy hoch;
r- h s chit khu (t l khu hao).
Nu gi tr thu nhp rng ca mt d n l NPV 0 phng n c coi l chp
nhn c v vn u t c th thu hi c trong thi gian quy hoch T. Trong trng

hp ngc li NPV < 0, phng n quy hoch khng chp nhn c v mt kinh t.
D n c NPV cng ln th hiu qu u t cng cao.
3.3.2. Ch tiu t s li ch v chi ph B/C
T s gia li ch B v chi ph C tnh theo thi im hin ti l mt ch tiu phn
nh hiu qu u t. C th thy ngay l, t s B/C phi ln hn 1 th mi c kh nng
thu hi vn u t trong thi gian quy hoch bng tui th ca d n T.

T
t
t
t 1
T
t
t
t 1
B
(1 r)
B / C
C
(1 r)
=
=
+
=
+
(3-6)
Khi gi tr B/C > 1 th phng n c coi l chp nhn c. T s ny cng
ln, kh nng thu hi vn cng nhanh v hiu qu u t cng ln.
3.3.3. Ch s thu hi vn bn trong IRR (Internal Rate of Return)
Ch s thu hi vn bn trong (IRR) l mt ch tiu quan trng th hin tc thu
hi vn ca mt d n trong thi gian quy hoch.
Ch s thu hi vn bn trong IRR chnh l t l khu hao lm cho gi tr thu nhp
rng trong thi gian quy hoch T bng 0, tc l:
NPV = B C = 0 (3-7)
Trong B v C l li ch v chi ph c tnh quy i v thi im hin ti.
Cng thc (3-7) v th c th vit di dng (3-8) nh sau:

T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV B C
(1 IRR)
=
= =
+
= 0 (3-8)
Nh vy, IRR cng chnh l mc li sut ti a m d n c th tr ho vn trong
thi gian quy hoch T.
Phng n quy hoch c gi l chp nhn c v mt kinh t nu gi tr IRR
ln hn mt gi tr cho php no :
IRR i
cp
, trong i
cp
l t l khu hao cho php.
T l khu hao cho pho i
cp
theo quan im kinh t do nh nc quy nh m
bo s pht trin cn i ca nn kinh t quc dn, theo quan im ti chnh t l ny
khng c vt t l li sut vay vn thc hin d n.
Xt theo quan im ti chnh, nu mt ch u t no (mt cng ty, mt t
nhn hoc nh nc) phi vay vn vi li sut i no s c 3 trng hp xy ra:
- Nu IRR = i th ch u t ho vn khi kt thc d n
- Nu IRR< i th ch u t b l
- Nu IRR> i th ch u t s c li
Xt theo quan im kinh t, vic phn tch kinh t d n theo hai trng hp sau:
- Nu IRR i
cp
th vic u t vo d n khng gy s mt cn i cho nn
kinh t quc dn
- Nu IRR< i th d n cn phi xem xt k lng v cn phn tch thm cc
li ch x hi v mi trng v cc li ch khc ca quc gia quyt nh.
xc nh gi tr IRR cn thc hin cc php tnh ng dn. Cc bc tnh
ton nh sau:
Bc 1: Gi nh tr s IRR
Bc 2: Tnh gi tr B, C v NPV theo cng thc dng (3-5) vi t l khu hao IRR:
Bc 3: Kim tra iu kin NPV=0:
Nu NPV vi l s dng kh nh cho trc, th gi tr IRR chnh l gi
tr cn tm.
Nu NPV > vi l s dng kh nh cho trc, th gi tr IRR cha phi l
gi tr cn tm, cn gi nh li gi tr IRR v tin hnh tnh ton li t bc 2.
Nu gi tr IRR > gi tr cho php (thng l gi tr ca t l khu hao r) th
phng n quy hoch chp nhn c. Gi tr IRR cng ln th thi gian thu hi vn
cng nhanh v hiu qu u t ca d n cng ln.
3.3.4. Thi gian hon vn
T
h
= T
xd
+
0
K
D
(3-9)
Trong : Hiu ch bnh qun hng nm:
D =
T
t vht
t 1
kt
(B C )
T t
=

(3-10)
t
kt
- nm bt u khai thc;
B
t
- hiu ch nm th t;
C
vht
- chi ph vn hnh nm th t;
K
0
- vn u t ban u;
T
xd
- thi gian xy dng cng trnh.
Mt d n c coi l chp nhn c v mt kinh t nu T
h
gi tr cho php.

3.4. Phn tch chi ph v li ch trong quy hoch ngun nc

Phn tch chi ph v li ch i vi cc d n quy hoch ngun nc l cng vic
kh phc tp do kh xc nh cc gi tr v li ch v chi ph ca cc hng mc cn
tnh ton. Phn tch chi ph v li ch cng bao gm phn tch kinh t v phn ch ti
chnh. Trong mc ny trnh by mt s ni dung chnh khi phn tch chi ph v li ch
theo quan im kinh t.
3.4.1. Phn tch chi ph i vi cc d n quy hoch ngun nc
Chi ph c tnh i vi d n quy hoch ngun nc rt a dng c th lng
ho c cng c khi ch c tnh hoc khng lng ho c. Nhng hng mc kh
lng ho lin quan n cc vn v x hi hoc mi trng. Nhng chi ph c
tnh tu thuc vo d n c th thng bao gm nhng hng mc chnh nh sau:
- Vn u t cho h thng cng trnh v cc bin php phi cng trnh. Bin
php phi cng trnh c th l bin php pht trin rng phng h, b tr li
cc khu dn c, cc bin php cnh bo v d bo v.v
- Cc chi ph vn hnh sa cha h thng cng trnh
- Tin gii phng mt bng v n b khi thc hin cc d n
- Thit hi kinh t do mt kh nng sn xut phn din tch t dnh cho
lm cng trnh v phn din tch dnh cho gii phng mt bng
- Cc chi ph nhm chng nhim mi trng do d n gy ra
- Thit hi do tc ng xu n mi trng v cc hot ng kinh t khc
khi thc hin cc d n quy hoch (do nh hng xm nhp mn, thit hi
i vi ngh c, s thay i c ch cy trng v.v).

3.4.2. Phn tch li ch i vi cc d n quy hoch ngun nc
Cng tng t nh vic phn tch chi ph, vic phn tch li ch cng rt phc tp
v rt a dng. Di y trnh by cch phn tch li ch d n i vi mt s ni dung
chnh khi lp cc d n quy hoch pht trin ngun nc.
a. Li ch cp nc ti v tiu ng
- Sn lng la go tng ln do c cng trnh cp nc ti v lm tng thu
nhp quc dn.
- Lm tng thu nhp quc dn t vic xut khu la go.
- Lm tng sn phm cho x hi do s thay i tp qun canh tc v thay i
ngnh ngh sn xut ca khu vc di dn.
- Li ch mang li do gim sc lao ng cho ngi trng la vng c cp
nc. Ngi nng dn s c c hi lm nhng ngh ph khc lm tng sn
phm x hi.
- Lm tng sc sn xut ca cc lnh vc c lin quan: sn xut xi mng, st
thp, cng nghip ch bin...
- Ngoi ra cn c nhng li ch khng tnh c bng tin. l cc vn v
ci thin iu kin mi trng, li ch x hi khc mang li.

b. Li ch pht trin thu nng
- Li ch do cung cp in cho cc ngnh kinh t mang li: tng nng sut lao
ng, tng trng cc ngnh kinh t, tng c hi vic lm gp phn tng thu
nhp ca nn kinh t quc dn.
- Lm h gi thnh in nng do pht trin thy nng v gim ngoi t do nhp
khu in nng.
- Lm thay i ch dng chy vng h du c li cho sn xut nng nghip,
giao thng thy v.v...

c. Pht trin vn ti thu
- Tng kh nng vn chuyn lu thng hng ho trn th trng.
- Lm gim gi thnh vn chuyn hng ho.
- To nhiu cng n vic lm cho x hi.

d. Hiu qu phng l
- Lm gim thit hi do l lt gy ra
- n nh kinh t vng l, to iu kin pht trin kinh t vng l
- Gim thit hi do ci to mi trng vng l
- Ci thin i sng nhn dn vng ngp l
- Ci thin mi trng vn ho x hi vng l.

Trn y l nhng ni dung chnh khi phn tch li ch ca d n quy hoch.
Ngoi ra cc li ch khc nh pht trin du lch, nui trng thy sn, ci to mi
trng, thay i c li v mi trng sinh thi v cc li ch khc cng c phn tch
tu thuc vo tng d n c th.

3.5. V d v nh gi hiu qu kinh t d n

Ly d n no vt sng Ninh C lm v d v phn tch kinh t d n. D n do
Cng ty T vn v chuyn giao cng ngh Trng i hc Thy li thc hin nm
2000-2001 (Bo co D n no vt sng Ninh C, B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng
thn, H Ni, 4-2001).
3.5.1. Gii thiu d n
Sng Ninh C nhn nc sng Hng t ca Mom R, chy theo hng ng Bc
- Ty Nam ra bin ti ca Lch Giang. Tng chiu di sng l 52 km. Knh Qun
Liu c di trn 2 km, ni sng y vi sng Ninh C v tr cch ca sng 28 km.
Knh Qun Liu nhn nc t sng y chy vo sng Ninh C v l trc giao thng
thu quan trng trong vng. Sng Ninh c l ngun nc duy nht cung cp cho cc

vng ti thuc cc huyn Hi Hu, Nam Ninh, Xun Trng. Tng din tch vng
ti ca cc huyn ly nc t sng Ninh C thng k trong bng 3-4. Lu lc sng v
vng hng li th hin trn hnh 3-1.
Bng 3-4: Din tch ti v tiu theo n v hnh chnh 2001
([13] Bo co D n no vt sng Ninh C, B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn, H Ni, 4-2001)
TT n v hnh chnh F ti (ha) F tiu (ha)
1 Huyn Xun Trng 4.737
2 Huyn Hi Hu 16.551 16.315
3 Nam Ninh 8.927,5 18.343,5
4 Huyn Ngha Hng 15425.0
Tng cng 30176 50083.5

Trong nhng nm gn y do hin tng bi lp ca sng v cc on cc b
lng nc chuyn vo sng Ninh C gim gy ra hin tng nhim mn su vo t
lin nn kh nng cp nc cho cc knh dn rt cng thng, gy kh khn cho qun
l vn hnh cp nc, c bit l cc vng thuc huyn Hi Hu tnh Nam nh.
Bng 3-5: Din tch hn hng nm trong vng ti
Khu vc Din tch ti (ha) Ti ch ng
(ha)
Hn theo thi tit
(ha)
Hn thng xuyn
(ha)
Xun Trng 4.737,0 1.950 1.200 1.587,0
Hi Hu 16.551,0 6.123 5.000 4.728,0
Nam Ninh 8.927,5 3.000 3.000 1.927,5
Tng cng 30.215,5 11.073 9.200 8.242,5

Tnh trng hn l gim nng sut la ch yu l v ng Xun. Theo nh gi
ca a phng nng sut la b gim thp t 10% n 30%, c th nh sau:
- Din tch hn thng xuyn do thiu ngun nc l 8.242,5 ha gim nng
sut n 30%. Phn din tch ny chim 27,3% tng din tch ti.
- Din tch hn do thi tit l 9.200 ha gim nng sut t 10%.


Hnh 3-1: Bn vng d n sng Ninh C
(Bo co D n no vt sng Ninh C, B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn, H Ni, 4-2001)

khc phc tnh trng thiu nc lp d n no vt vi phm vi no v bin
php cng trnh nh sau:
! No vt on ca vo Mom R t ca vo sng Hng qua cng Hnh Thin,
trn chiu di 2838,7m. Lm k bo v b t nhm y dng chy v pha
b li (b hu).
! No vt ton b bi gia trc cng Mc vi chiu di l 1048m m bo
cho dng chy xui thun.
! Gia c sa cha k n ng (b hu Lch su) gi s n nh ca lng
chnh.
Khi lng xy lp chnh ch yu l khi lng no vt hai on sng ti Mom
R v on t cng Ko n cng Mc 2. Tng hp khi lng xy lp c tng hp
trong bng 3-6.
Bng 3-6: Tng hp khi lng xy lp chnh

No vt Cc k bo v b
TT Loi cng tc n v
Mom R Mc 2 n ng Mom R
Tng cng
1 t o m
3
1.335.583,0 408.540,0 9.890,4 5.998,7 1.760.012,1
2 xy M100 m
3
501,0 278,0 779,0
3 lt khan va M75 m
3
887,0 1.683,5 2.570,5
4 Vi a k thut 100m
2
47,8 60,8 108,5
5 ri m
3
1.118,3 1.118,3
6 R 0.5x1x2 r 1.692,0 1.692,0
7 R 1x1x2 r 1.274,0 1.274,0
8 Rng f=60, l=10m rng 259,0 602,8 861,8
9 Dm si m
3
458,0 349,0 807,0
10 p quai m
3
955,5 955,5
11 p t 110,7 110,7

3.5.2. nh gi hiu qu kinh t
C s nh gi
nh gi hiu qu kinh t c tin hnh trn c s cc gi nh sau:
i sng kinh t ca d n: Tnh theo gi nh thi gian tn ti d n
bng thi gian bi li ca lng dn: T = 20 nm
Thi gian thi cng trong vng 1 nm
Gi u vo, u ra theo mt bng gi ca Nam nh qu IV/2001.
D kin kh nng pht huy hiu qu ca d n:
+ Nm th nht 60% thu nhp ca d n hng nm;
+ Cc nm cn li t 100% hiu qu.
Chi ph ca d n (C)
Tng chi ph bao gm: Tng vn u t ban u (K); Chi ph qun l vn hnh
(C
QLVH
).
a. Vn u t ban u (K)
D kin vn u t xy dng c phn b trong 1 nm: Tng vn l:
41.003.078.393 ng
b. Chi ph vn hnh (C
QLVH
)
Tng chi ph vn hnh bao gm chi ph lng, chi ph nng lng in v.v...
Theo tiu chun 14TCN 113- 1997 trong giai on nghin cu kh thi ly bng 3%
Tng vn u t xy dng cng trnh.
nh gi li ch d n (B)
Hin nay, theo thng k ca S Nng nghip & PTNT tnh Nam nh, vng d
n thng xy ra thiu nc v ng Xun do ngun nc b nhim mn. Din tch b
thiu nc ch yu thuc huyn Hi Hu v mt phn ca Xun Trng. Tnh trng
thiu nc ch yu l la ng Xun. Tng din tch thng b thiu nc do to
ngun 8.245 ha. Nng sut b gim t 10% n 30%. Do vy trong tnh ton chn
nh sau:
- Din tch b thiu nc F = 8.245 ha.
- Nng sut la khi nc ly bng nng sut la ti Hi Hu nm 1999 l
7.560 kg/ha.
- Nng sut la khi b thiu nc gim bnh qun 15% so vi mc trn.
- Li ch d n ch ly bng li ch tng ln hng nm cho phn din tch b
thiu nc (8.245 ha) khi c cp nc.

Xc nh cc ch tiu hiu qu ca d n
1. Gi tr thu nhp rng ti thi im hin ti (NPV)
T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV
(1 r)
=
=
+

Trong :
B
t
- rng tin thu nhp nm th t (ng);
C
t
- chi ph nm th t;
T- tui th cng trnh, trong d n chn bng 20 nm;
r- h s chit khu.
Tiu chun nh gi l: NPV > 0.

Theo kt qu tnh ton c:
Vi T =20 nm NPV = 70.889.714.480 ng.
2. Ch tiu t s li ch v chi ph
T
t
t
t 1
T
t
t
t 1
B
(1 r)
B / C
C
(1 r)
=
=
+
=
+

Kt qu cho gi tr B/C > 1, c th l:
Vi T =20 nm B/C = 2,59.
3. Ch s thu hi vn bn trong (IRR)
c tnh theo cng thc:
T
t t
t
t 1
(B C )
NPV B C
(1 IRR)
=
= =
+
= 0
Theo tiu chun nh gi IRR > [r]
Theo kt qu tnh ton c IRR = 29,5%.
4. Thi gian hon vn
T
h
= T
xd
+
0
K
D

Trong :
Hiu ch bnh qun hng nm: D =
T
t vht
t 1
kt
(B C )
T t
=

t
kt
- nm bt u khai thc;
B
t
- hiu ch nm th t;
C
vht
- chi ph vn hnh nm th t;
K - vn u t ban u.
Theo kt qu tnh cho T
h
= 5,0 nm.
5. T s gi tr thu nhp rng v vn u t ban u vi T =20 nm NPV/K=1,73
Kt qu tnh ton li ch sau khi c d n trnh by bng 3-10; kt qu tnh thu
nhp rng v gi tr IRR xem bng 3-8 v 3-9.
Nhn xt: Cc ch tiu kinh t theo tnh ton u t hiu qu kinh t.
NPV > 0.
IRR > 10% B/C = 2,59 1 T
h
= 5 nm
NPV/K > 0,1.
Vi cc ch tiu kinh t nh trn cho thy hiu qu u t ca d n tng i cao.
Tng hp vn u t
Tng vn u t xy dng l 41.003.078.393 ng. Trong :
! Xy lp: 28,831,372,430 ng
! Chi khc: 8,317,069,519 ng
! D phng: 3,854,636,445 ng
Cc hng mc vn c thng k trong bng 3-7.
Bng 3-7: Tng hp vn u t
TT Hng mc Gi tr DT trc thu Thu VAT Gi tr sau thu
A Xy lp 27.458.449.933 1.372.922.497 28.831.372.430
B No vt sng 25.780.083.492
1 No vt sng cc on sng 16.624.549.079 831.227.454 17.455.776.532
2 Kinh ph pht gm cu, cng 1.503.054.765 75.152.738 1.578.207.504
3 o v vn chuyn t 6.424.856.625 321.242.831 6.746.099.456
4 K n ng 1.659.609.677 82.980.484 1.742.590.161
5 K Mom R 1.246.379.788 62.318.989 1.308.698.777
C Chi ph khc 7.583.699.563 758.369.956 8.317.069.519
- Giai on chun b u t 416.583.035 41.658.303 458.241.338
1 Kho st + lp BCNCKT 409.090.909 40.909.091 450.000.000
2 Thm nh BCNCKT 7.492.125 749.213 8.241.338
- Giai on thc hin u t 6.787.386.252 678.738.625 7.442.315.353
1 Chi ph kho st giai on TKKT 454.545.455 45.454.545 500.000.000
2 Thit k ph (T l % Xy lp) 642.619.000 64.261.900 706.880.901
3 Thm nh TKKT 16.209.575 1.620.957 17.830.532
4 Thm nh tng d ton 14.597.170 1.459.717 16.056.887
5 Lp h s mi thu XL 29.065.644 2.906.564 31.972.208
6 Gim st k thut XD 171.161.599 17.116.160 188.277.759
7 Chi ph qun l d n XL 400.514.951 40.051.495 440.566.446
8 Th nghim m hnh 476.190.476 47.619.048 500.000.000
9 R ph bom mn 1.818.181.818 181.818.182 2.000.000.000
10 nh gi tc ng mi trng 63.636.364 6.363.636 70.000.000
11 n b gii phng mt bng 2.700.664.200 270.066.420 2.970.730.620

TT Hng mc Gi tr DT trc thu Thu VAT Gi tr sau thu
- Giai on kt thc xy dng 379.730.276 37.973.028 416.512.828
1 Kim tra cht lng CT 54.916.900 5.491.690 60.408.590
2 Khi cng, bn giao CT 18.181.818 1.818.182 20.000.000
3 Thm nh & quyt ton 23.809.524 2.380.952 25.000.000
4 Chi ph bo him CT 282.822.034 28.282.203 311.104.238
D Cng d ton (A+B) 35.042.149.496 2.131.292.453 37.148.441.949
E D phng 3.504.214.950 350.421.495 3.854.636.445
Tng d ton 38.546.364.445 2.481.713.948 41.003.078.393

Bng 3-8: Tnh ton gi tr thu nhp rng NPV v B/C (n v tnh: ng)

TT Nm Chi ph QLVH
Tng chi ph hng
nm (ng)
Tng li ch hng
nm (ng)
Li ch quy i
r=10%
Chi ph quy i
r=10%
1 2003 41.003.078.393 8.651.303.984 7.864.821.803 37.275.525.812
2 2004 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 4.418.839.973 11.916.396.672 1.016.605.249
3 2005 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 4.418.839.973 10.833.087.884 924.186.590
4 2006 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 9.848.261.712 840.169.628
5 2007 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 8.952.965.193 763.790.571
6 2008 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 8.139.059.266 694.355.064
7 2009 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 7.399.144.788 631.231.877
8 2010 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 6.726.495.261 573.847.161
9 2011 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 6.114.995.692 521.679.237
10 2012 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 5.559.086.993 474.253.852
11 2013 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 5.053.715.448 431.139.865
12 2014 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 4.594.286.771 391.945.332
13 2015 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 4.176.624.337 356.313.938
14 2016 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 3.796.931.216 323.921.762
15 2017 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 3.451.755.651 294.474.329
16 2018 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 3.137.959.682 267.703.936
17 2019 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.852.690.620 243.382.759
18 2020 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.593.355.109 221.257.054
19 2021 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.357.595.554 201.142.776
20 2022 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 2.143.268.685 182.857.069
Tng cng: 23.372.068.972 64.375.147.365 282.609.263.471 117.512.498.340 46.629.783.859
NPV = 70.882.714.480
B/C = 2,52
NPV/K =1,73

Bng 3-9: Tnh ton gi tr IRR
Nm
th
Chi ph vn hnh
Tng vn u t
(ng)
Li ch hng nm
(ng)
Chi ph hng nm
quy i
IRR=0,295%
(ng)
Li ch hng nm
quy i
IRR=0,295%
(ng)
1 41.003.078.393 41.003.078.393
2 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 8.651.303.984 733.496.729 6.680.543.617
3 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 566.406.740 8.597.868.233
4 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 437.379.722 6.639.280.489
5 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 337.744.959 5.126.857.520
6 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 260.806.918 3.958.963.336
7 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 201.395.304 3.057.114.545
8 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 155.517.609 2.360.706.213
9 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 120.090.818 1.822.939.160
10 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 92.734.222 1.407.675.027
11 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 71.609.438 1.087.007.743
12 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 55.296.863 839.388.219
13 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 42.700.281 648.176.231
14 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 32.973.190 500.522.186
15 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 25.461.923 386.503.618
16 1.230.092.352 1.230.092.352 14.418.839.973 19.661.716 298.458.393
17 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 15.183.762 230.469.801
18 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 11.724.913 177.968.958
19 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 9.053.987 137.427.767
20 1.230.170.923 1.230.170.923 14.418.839.973 6.991.496 106.121.828
23.372.068.971 268.190.423.498 44.199.308.984 44.063.992.883

Kt qu tnh th dn cho IRR=29,5%.

Bng 3-10: Tnh ton gi tr thu nhp thun tu ca 1 ha la v ng xun
v li ch mang li trc v sau d n

Hng mc
n gi
(ng)
n v S lng
Gi tr
(ng)
I. Thu nhp thun tu trc khi c d n
1. Sn lng thc trn 1 ha 85% 1.800 kg 6.426 11.566.769
2. Tng chi ph 10.350.700
a. Chi ph lao ng cng 265 5.300.000
b. Chi ph u vo 3.583.500
Ging 7.500 kg 85 637.500
Phn chung 200.000 tn 8,4 1.680.000
m 2.500 kg 168 420.000
Ln 1.200 kg 280 336.000
Kali 2.500 kg 84 210.000
Thuc tr su 60.000 kg 5 300.000
c. Thu my 560.000
d. Thy li ph 403200
e. Thu nng nghip 504.000
3. Gi tr thu nhp thun ty 1.216.069,4
II. Thu nhp thun tu sau khi c d n
1. Sn lng thc trn 1 ha (100%) 1.800 Kg 7.560 13.607.964
2. Tng chi ph 10.642.460
a. Chi ph lao ng 20.000 cng 265 5.300.000
b. Chi ph u vo 3.583.500
Ging 7.500 kg 85 637.500
Phn chung 200.000 tn 8,4 1.680.000
m 2.500 kg 168 420.000
Ln 1.200 kg 280 336.000
Kali 2.500 kg 84 210.000
Thuc tr su 60.000 kg 5 300.000
c. Thu my 524.160
d. Thu li ph 655.200
e. Thu nng nghip 579.600
3. Gi tr thu nhp thun tu 2.965.504
Li ch thc ca 1 ha la sau khi c d n: 1.749.434,60
Tng hp:
- Din tch hn gim t 10% n 30% nng sut l 8242 ha, ly trung bnh
gim 15% nng sut
- Nng sut la v ng Xun ly theo ti liu thng k ca Hi Hu nm
1999: 7.560 kg/ha
- Thu nhp tng sau d n trn 8242 ha b hn l: 8242 x 1.749.434 =
14.418.839.973 ng.

3.6. Gi nc v nh gi nc

Nc l loi hng ho c bit v rt kh nh gi. Theo quy lut gi tr th gi tr
ca 1 m
3
nc l lng sn phm tng thm khi s dng lng nc . Tuy nhin,
khng phi lc no gi tr ca nc cng c nh gi nh vy. Chng hn nc s
dng cho ci to mi trng, m bo yu cu sinh thi th khng th tnh c bng
tin hoc sn phm m n to ra. V vy, vic nh gi nc l mt cng vic rt kh
khn, n khng phi ch ph thuc vo nh sn xut hoc nhu cu ca ngi s dng
n mang tnh x hi cao v cn c s can thip ca nh nc.
Vn cn quan tm l vic nh gi nc nh th no cho mt d n pht trin
ngun nc. Gi nc qu cao v ln hn gi tr ca n th ngi nng dn s khng
s dng nc t d n. Ngc li nu gi nc thp s c nhiu ngi s dng nc
nhng c th vic u t s b l do sut u t cao. Bi vy, vic nh gi nc theo
quan im kinh t l mt vn phc tp v phi c xem xt t cc kha cnh: ca
ngi u t vo d n thu li; ca ngi nng dn; ca chin lc pht trin kinh t
ca nh nc; vn x hi v sinh thi.
Mt gi nc c gi l ti u nu n lm tng thu nhp quc dn nhng c th
li khng c li i vi ngi u t vo d n thu li. Khi nh nc s c bin
php tr gi cho ngi nng dn hoc b l cho ngi u t vo d n.
Ni tm li, vic nh gi nc khng ch da trn quan im ti chnh, quan
im kinh t m cn phi ch n n kha cnh x hi mi trng v sinh thi. Do
vy, nh nc cn c s can thip nht nh trong qu trnh nh gi nc i vi cc
d n pht trin ngun nc.



Chng 4

M HNH HO TRONG QUY HOACH
VA QUN L NGUN NC

4.1. Qu trnh la chn phng n quy hoch ngun nc
La chn cc phng n ca bi ton quy hoch v qun l ngun nc thng
c thc hin theo cc trnh t sau y:
1. Xc nh mc tiu ca bi ton quy hoch hoc qun l h thng.
2. Xc lp tp cc phng n c th (phng n cng trnh, phng n ci to
h thng, phng n vn hnh h thng, phng n s dng ngun nc...).
3. M phng h thng bng m hnh m phng.
4. S dng m hnh m phng nh gi phn ng ca h thng theo cc
phng n c th xc nh cc phng n chp nhn c. Cc phng
n chp nhn c l cc phng n tho mn cc iu kin k thut, cc
iu kin rng buc v mi trng v cc iu kin rng buc khc i vi
h thng.
5. Tm phng n ti u nht hoc phng n hp l trong s cc phng n
chp nhn c bng phng php m phng hoc phng n ti u ho.

Trnh t trn c th m t trn s 4-1.
Khi phn tch la chn phng n quy hoch thng ng dng hai phng php
rt c trng ca l thuyt phn tch h thng, l: Phng php ti u ho v
phng php m phng.
Phng php m phng l phng php so snh trc tip cc phng n chp
nhn tm phng n c hiu qu kinh t cao nht v tho mn cc iu kin k thut
v cc rng buc.
Phng php ti u ho tm phng n ti u bng cch lp v gii bi ton ti
u i vi bi ton ang xem xt.
Cc phng php ti u ho sau y thng dng trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun nc:
- Phng php quy hoch tuyn tnh;
- Phng php gii bi ton ti u phi tuyn c dng v khng dng o hm;
Chng 4- M hnh ha... 65
- Phng php quy hoch ng;
- Phng php d tm ti u.

Nh vy, phn tch la chn phng n quy hoch mt cch hp l nht cn
phi thit lp cc m hnh ton theo mc tiu khai thc h thng. Ta phn bit hai loi
m hnh ton i vi h thng ngun nc: m hnh m phng v m hnh ti u ha.

Tp cc phng n c
th (phng n s
dng nc, phng n
cng trnh v.v)
Tp cc gi tr u
vo ca h thng
(dng chy sng ngi,
ti liu a hnh v.v)

M HNH
M PHNG
H THNG
Bng phng php m phng
Tm phng n hp l trong s cc
phng n chp nhn c bng
phng php m phng
Bng phng php ti u ha
Tm phng n hp l trong s
cc phng n chp nhn c
bng phng php ti u ho

Tp cc phng n
chp nhn c
TM PHONG N TI U
Xc nh mc tiu ca bi ton

Hnh 4-1: S m t qu trnh la chn phng n quy hoch
hoc qun l h thng

M hnh m phng m t qu trnh vt l v cc hot ng ca h thng c
xy dng nhm nhn thc h thng, xem xt ng thi ca h thng v phn tch kh
nng t c ca cc mc tiu khai thc h thng t ra. M hnh ti u c thit
lp nhm mc ch tm phng n quy hoch ti u bng phng php ti u ho.

4.2. M hnh m phng h thng
4.2.1. Khi nim v m phng
Quan im h thng hin i i hi phi xy dng cc m hnh h thng, c
bit i vi nhng h thng ln v phc tp. Cc m hnh h thng nhm m t cc
qu trnh vt l ca h thng, cc hot ng ca h thng v ch lm vic ca h
thng.

M phng h thng l phng thc m t mt h thng thc bng mt h thng
khng thc do ngi nghin cu to ra. Trn h thng nhn to, cc qu trnh vt l
ca m hnh thc c m t gn ng hoc tng t. Cc quy lut vn ng ca h
thng thc c suy ra t nhng kt qu nghin cu trn h thng do ngi nghin cu
to ra.
C nhiu cch m phng, bao gm: M hnh vt l, m hnh ton v.v... Chng
hn qu trnh tp trung nc trn lu vc c th m t bng m hnh tng t in. Cc
quy lut chuyn ng nc trong lng dn c th m t bng cc m hnh vt l c
xy dng trong phng th nghim theo cc tiu chun tng t.
Khi nghin cu cc h thng k thut v h thng ngun nc ngi ta s dng
m phng ton hc.
M phng ton hc l s biu t cc quy lut vt l v qu trnh hot ng ca
h thng bng cc biu thc ton hc bao gm cc hm s, cc cng thc ton hc,
cc biu thc logic, cc bng biu v cc biu .
Nh vy, c th rt ra nh ngha: M hnh m phng l s biu t cc quy lut
ca h thng bao gm cc qu trnh vt l v ng thi ca h thng bng cc biu
thc ton hc.
Cc m hnh ton s dng m phng h thng thc khng th phn nh y
cc tnh cht, quy lut chuyn ng v.v... ca h thng thc, v cc qu trnh t
nhin ca h thng thc b gin ho hoc c biu t theo mt "quan nim" no
ca ngi nghin cu khi h thit lp cc m hnh m phng. Tu thuc vo mc
ch nghin cu m biu t v s gin ho theo cc dng khc nhau. Tiu chun nh
gi cht lng ca m hnh m phng l s sai khc gia gi tr thc v gi tr tnh
ton ca cc c trng m ngi nghin cu quan tm.
M hnh m phng i vi h thng bt k c dng sau:
Y = H ( U, X, A ) (4-1)
vi rng buc: G ( Y, X, U, A ) 0 (4-2)
trong : X - vc t cc bin vo ca h thng v l hm ca thi gian, X = X(t),
X(t) = ( x
1
(t), x
2
(t),..., x
j
(t),..., x
n
(t)) J = 1, n (4-3)
U - vc t cc bin iu khin v cng l hm ca thi gian, U = U(t),
U(t) = (u
1
(t) , u
2
(t) ,..., u
i
(t) ,..., u
n
(t)) i = 1, m (4-4)
Y - cc bin ra ca h thng, Y = Y(t),
Y(t) = ( y
1
(t), y
2
(t), ...., y
ip
(t) , ...., y
p
(t) ip = 1, p (4-5)
A - vc t cc thng s m hnh m phng h thng,
A = (a
1
, a
2
,..., a
iL
,... a
L
) i
L
= 1, L (4-6)
G - vc t biu th cc hm rng buc ca h thng, ta c th vit:
G
jg
( Y, X, U, A) 0 ; J
g
= 1, Ng (4-7)
H - k hiu biu th dng hm ca m hnh m phng.

4.2.2. Thit lp m hnh m phng
Vic thit lp m hnh m phng c tin hnh theo nhng bc sau y:
1. Thu thp thng tin v h thng, xc nh mc tiu khai thc v lp s h
thng theo mc tiu nh.
2. Xc lp cu trc h thng v m t bng s cc mi quan h gia cc
thnh phn trong h thng.
3. Chn cc thng s ca h thng c trng cho mi quan h gia cc thnh
phn ca h thng v thit lp cc biu thc ton hc, cc biu thc logic
ca cc qu trnh trn. M hnh ton ca h thng bao gm cc m hnh
thnh phn v s ghp ni gia chng. Do cn xc nh:
+ Phng thc m t cc m hnh thnh phn, bao gm:
- M phng cc quy lut v cc qu trnh vt l ca h thng.
- M phng cc qu trnh tc ng vo h thng t mc tiu.
- M phng hm mc tiu khi mc tiu khai thc i vi h thng xc lp.
+ S lp ghp cc m hnh thnh phn.
+ Cc biu thc logic m t cho chin lc iu khin h thng v tho
mn cc rng buc ca h thng.
4. Kim tra s hp l ca m phng v xc nh cc tham s ca m hnh
theo ti liu quan trc c.

Hin nay tn ti kh nhiu m hnh m phng c s dng rng ri trong quy
hoch v qun l ngun nc. in hnh l cc m hnh loi HEC: HEC1, HEC2,...,
HEC6, HEC-HMS, HEC-RESIM; cc m hnh h MIKE: MIKE11, MIKE21, MIKE-
BASIN v rt nhiu cc m hnh khc.

4.2.3. S dng m hnh m phng xc lp mc tiu v phng thc
khai thc
y l bc i u tin trong phn tch v thit k h thng ngun nc. i vi
mt h thng bt k, vic xc nh mc tiu ban u ch l nh tnh, mc t c ca
mc tiu t ra cn c kim tra bng tnh ton vi cc m hnh m phng xc
lp. Cng vi mc tiu khai thc h thng cn xc nh bin php cng trnh v quy
m cc cng trnh cn c xy dng. Ngoi ra, cng cn phi khng nh kh nng

p ng ca h thng i vi cc yu cu khai thc h thng. Tt c nhng vn ny
ch c lm r khi s dng m hnh m phng trong qu trnh tnh ton v phn tch.
Kt qu tnh ton bng m hnh m phng cho php s b quyt nh nhng vn
chnh sau y:
! Quyt nh mc tiu khai thc h thng bao gm nhng yu cu v nc
c chp nhn v mc p ng i vi mc tiu khai thc t ra. Lng
ho mc tiu khai thc bng cc hm mc tiu v cc rng buc v mc tiu.
! Phng thc khai thc ngun nc trn h thng.
! Cu trc h thng bao gm cu trc h thng cng trnh, h thng cc yu
cu v nc v mi quan h ca chng trn h thng.
! Tp cc phng n c th: cc phng n cng trnh v cc phng n khai
thc s dng ngun nc.
! Cc gii hn v rng buc ca h thng: c m t bng cc biu thc
rng buc ton hc.

C th ni m hnh m phng l cng c nhn thc h thng v nh hng
quy hoch v qun l h thng ngun nc.

4.3. M hnh ti u ho trong quy hoch ngun nc

Phng php ti u ho trong quy hoch ngun nc c s dng kh rng ri
trn th gii v c trnh by trong nhiu ti liu c lin quan (Biswas, A.K, Jellali,
M., and Stout G.E., (eds.) (1993): Water for Sustainable Development in the TWenty-
fist Century,oxford University Press (ISBN 0 19 563303 4). Daniel P. Louks, Jery R.
Stedinger, Dougias A. Haith: Water Resource Systemt Planning and Analysis,
International Institute for Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Delft, the
Netherlands, 1981, ISBN 0 139 45923 5; Mays L.W., Tung Y.K., Hydrosystems
engineering and management, McGraw-Hill, Inc, 1992, ISBN 0 070 41146 7; Grigg
N.S., Water Resources Management: Principles, Regulations, and Cases, McGraw-
Hill,1996. ISBN 0 070 41146 7).
Phng php ti u ho l phng php xc nh li gii ca h thng theo mc
tiu khai thc h thng bng cch lng ho chng thnh cc hm mc tiu. Sau khi
xc nh c mc tiu ca bi ton quy hoch th vn quan trng nht cn t ra l
xy dng hm mc tiu ca bi ton quy hoch cn gi l thit lp bi ton ti u. M
hnh m t hm mc tiu c gi l m hnh ti u. Vic xy dng hm mc tiu tu
thuc vo nhim v ca bi ton quy hoch v tnh phc tp ca h thng. Trong thc
t thng gp cc bi ton a mc tiu do nhng mc ch khai thc khc nhau. Di
y s trnh by cc dng c bn ca hm mc tiu i vi bi ton thit k h thng,
pht trin h thng v qun l iu hnh h thng ngun nc.
4.3.1. M t tng qut bi ton ti u h thng
Gi s c h thng c cu trc no . Gi X(t) l vc t cc thng tin vo, U(t)
l vc t iu khin, Y(t) l vc t cc thng tin ra, Z(t) l vc t bin trng thi, A l
vc t thng s cu trc ca h thng. Ta c :
X(t) = ( x
1
(t), x
2
(t), . . .., x
n1
(t))
U(t) = ( u
1
(t), u
2
(t), ......, u
n2
(t))
Y(t) = ( y
1
(t), y
2
(t), ...... , y
n3
(t)) (4-8)
Z(t) = ( z
1
(t), z
2
(t), ....... , z
n4
(t))
A = (a
1
, a
2
, ...................., a
n5
)

M hnh m phng h thng c dng :
Y(t) = H(X(t), U(t), Z(t), A) (4-9)
Cn thit k v iu khin h thng sao cho cc tr mt hm mc tiu no :
F(X(t), Y(t), Z(t), U(t), A) (cc tr) (4-10)
Vi rng buc :
G
j
(X(t), Y(t), Z(t), U(t),A) b
j
j = 1, m (4-11)

Ta c th chia ra lm ba loi bi ton khc nhau.
a. Bi ton thit k
i vi bi ton thit k thng quy nh trc ch lm vic ca h thng, do
vc t U(t) bit trc v quy lut thay i ca bin trng thi Z(t), X(t) cng
bit. Hm mc tiu (4-10) khi ch cn mt loi bin l vc t A.
Nh vy cc biu thc t (4-9) n (4-11) c th vit di dng gin ho, tc l
khng cn m t cc bin bit trong phng trnh tng qut:
Ta c hm mc tiu s l:
F(a
1
, a
2
,, a
n
) cc tr (4-12)
A
Vi rng buc:
G
j
(a
1
, a
2
,..., a
n
) b
j
j = 1, m (4-13)
Trong : A = (a
1
, a
2
,..., a
n
)

(4-14)
l tham s cu trc ti u ca h thng.
Ta gi bi ton ny l bi ton thit k.

b. Bi ton iu khin
Gi thit h thng c thit k, tc l cc thng s cu trc A bit trc.
Nu ta thay (4-9) vo (4-10) ta c dng gin ho:
F(X(t), Z(t), U(t)) cc tr (4-15)
vi rng buc: Y(X(t), Z(t), U(t)) b
j
j = 1, m (4-16)
Ta cn phi tm vc t U(t) lm ti u mc tiu no ang c xem xt.
Bi ton nh vy c tn gi l bi ton iu khin h thng.
c. Bi ton thit k tng qut
i vi bi ton thit k thc ra vic nh ra trc cc gi tr lm vic ca h
thng l khng hp l, v rng cc thng s cu trc ca h thng c mi quan h cht
ch vi ch lm vic ca n v quy lut thay i ca cc bin vo X(t). Do cn
gi nguyn phng trnh dng tng qut (4-9) n (4-11). Tuy nhin tm nghim ca
dng bi ton ny khng n gin, khng nhng do tnh phc tp ca n m cn do s
bt nh v mc ch khai thc h thng na. Trong trng hp c th dng phng
php m phng tm nghim hp l.

4.3.2. Vn thit lp hm mc tiu v cc rng buc ca bi ton ti u
a. Mc tiu v hm mc tiu
Cn phn bit khi nim "mc tiu " v "hm mc tiu".
Mc tiu khai thc h thng c th c lng ho bng mt i lng no .
Cng c th khng c lng ho. i lng dng lng ho mc tiu c th nhn
cc gi tr khc nhau, do c th gi l "mc" ca mc tiu ra. Chng hn mt
kho nc c thit k ti th "ti" l mc tiu khai thc cn din tch cn ti hoc
qu trnh lng nc yu cu ti l mc t mc tiu.
Hm mc tiu l tiu chun nh gi cht lng t c mc tiu ra vi mc
nh, cho nn trong nhiu ti liu cn gi l hm tiu chun hoc hm cht lng.
i vi bi ton ti trn y c th c hai cch thit lp hm mc tiu:
- Hm mc tiu l mt hm s m n cn nhn gi tr cc tr (ln nht hoc nh
nht). Nu W(t) cha nh trc, tc l din tch cn ti cha nh r ta c th t
hm mc tiu theo dng:
(4-17) J F( a , a , ..., a ) max
n
1 2
=
Trong : J - hiu ch mang li ln nht. Trong bi ton phn phi nc nu
nh trc ta c:
1 2 n
a , a , ..., a
(4-18) J
1
F(W(t)) max =
vi W(t) l vc t lng nc c phn phi cho cc khu ti:
W(t) = (w
1
(t), w
2
(t),..., w
n
(t))
- Hm mc tiu c nhn cc gi tr trong gii hn no . Nu yu cu v ti
W(t) nh ta cn xc nh cu trc v thng s ca h thng cng trnh sao cho:
P{Wc(t)W(t)} [ P] (4-19)
Trong P l k hiu xc sut, Wc(t) l lng nc m kho nc c th p ng
vi lng nc n khc nhau. Biu thc (4-19) c ngha l xc sut m bo nc
phi ln hn mc cho php p .
b. Rng buc ca h thng
Cc biu thc rng buc (4-13) hoc (4-16) m t gii hn hot ng ca h
thng khi thit k v iu khin n. Cc gii hn bao gm cc iu kin k thut,
cc yu cu khai thc ca h thng, cn bng nc h thng v.v...
V d, cn iu khin mt kho nc pht in vi mc tiu t ra l tng in
nng ca nh my trong thi k vn hnh l ln nht. Tc l:
(4-20)
T
0
J E(t)dt max =
Trong : E(t) - nng lng in nhn c ti thi im t.

iu kin (4-20) cn tha mn vi cc rng buc sau:
- Mc nc trong kho nc khng c vt qu mc nc dng bnh thng
H
tb
v khng nh hn mc nc cht H
o
, y l rng buc v k thut:
H
o
Z(t) H
bt
(4-21)
- Lu lng tho qua mt t my khng vt qu gii hn max, min ca n (rng
buc k thut):
q
min
q(t) q
max
(4-22)
- Lu lng tho xung h lu khng c nh hn mt lu lng cho php
m bo ti cho vng h lu v tha mn yu cu giao thng thy (rng buc do yu
cu khai thc h thng, dng:
q
x
(t) q
cp
(4-23)

4.4. Thit lp bi ton ti u h thng ngun nc v phn loi
4.4.1. Bi ton tng qut quy hoch ti u h thng ngun nc
Gi s ta lp quy hoch pht trin ngun nc trong thi gian quy hoch T, trong
T l thi gian lp quy hoch k t thi im lp quy hoch (v d nm 2000 ta lp

quy hoch pht trin ngun nc n nm 2050 th thi gian quy hoch T=50 nm).
Gi s ta chia h thng ra n nt quy hoch. Nt quy hoch l cc nt ti c xy
dng cng trnh hoc c yu cu v nc. Quy c rng nu ti nt th j no khng
c cng trnh m ch c yu cu v nc th chi ph xy dng cng trnh bng 0, cn
ti nt c xy dng cng trnh nhng khng c yu cu v nc th li ch cng ly
bng 0. V d h Ho Bnh c nhim v phng l cho h du th nt h Ha Bnh
khng tnh li ch phng l cn ti H Ni ch tnh li ch phng l v chi ph cho cc
bin php chng l ti ch. Bi ton quy hoch pht trin h thng c xc nh trn
c s phn tch quan h chi ph - li chc m t bi bi ton ti u vi hm mc
tiu c dng:
Z = (4-24)
T n
t
tj tj
t 0 j 1
(1 r) (B C ) max
= =
+
- B
tj
l li ch thu nhp rng mang li ti nt quy hoch th j ti nm t. Nu ti
nm t cha c li ch mang li th B
tj
= 0.
- C
tj
l tng chi ph ti nt th j bao gm chi ph u t xy dng cng trnh, chi
ph qun l vn hnh, cc thit hi tnh ti nt v.v... ti nm t. Nu ti nm t cng
trnh cha c xy dng ti nt j th chi ph xy dng cng trnh ly bng 0, cc chi
ph khc nh vn hnh h thng, thit hi gy ra ti nt c th khc 0.
- r l h s chit khu;
t
(1 r)
+ l h s tnh quy i chi ph v li ch v thi

im ban u. Gi s thi im lp quy hoch vo nm 2000; thi im xy dng cng
trnh th j vo nm 2030 th t = 30.
T cng thc (4-24) cho thy nu li ch cng chm c mang li th li ch thu
nhp rng cng gim.
Hm mc tiu (4-24) ch n thun phn tch hiu ch u t tnh bng tin.
Trong thc t cc li ch v thit hi v mi trng, x hi, chnh tr v.v, trong mt
s trng hp khng th quy i thnh tin. Trong trng hp nh vy chng c
m t bi cc biu thc rng buc hoc xem xt trong giai on quyt nh phng n
quy hoch.
Quy hoch ngun nc c tin hnh theo nguyn l tip cn tng bc, theo
trc tin cn xem xt bi ton thit k h thng, sau s gii bi ton pht trin
h thng. Ngoi ra, do s phn lp bi ton nn s cn phi gii cc bi ton ring
trc khi lp ghp trong bi ton tng qut. Bi vy, ta xem xt cc trng hp ring.

4.4.2. Bi ton quy hoch ti u (Bi ton thit k h thng)
Vi phng thc s dng ti nguyn nc v cc yu cu cp nc n nh,
cn xc nh cu trc v quy m ca h thng cng trnh sao cho ti u. y l bi
ton thit k h thng (xem chng 2). Nu cha tnh n li ch mang li v cha xt
n chin lc u t trong tng lai th dng (4-24) tr thnh bi ton cc tiu vn
u t.
Z = (4-25)
n
j
j 1
C mi
=

n
x
trong C
j
l vn u t thc t cho cng trnh th j.
Thc cht ca bi ton ny l xc nh phng n thit k cng trnh c mc u
t nh nht khi phi p ng yu cu nc n nh trc.

4.4.3. Bi ton phn phi nc ti u
Khi kh nng khai thc xc nh, cn xem xt phng thc s dng ti
nguyn nc ti u. Nu cha xem xt chin lc u t m ch phn tch phng thc
s dng nc tt nht th hm mc tiu (4-24) tr thnh bi ton cc i li ch kinh t
mang li trong quy hoch s dng nc:
Z = (4-26)
n
j
j 1
B ma
=

y l bi ton s dng ti u ngun nc khi h thng cng trnh c xy

dng. i vi cng trnh c xy dng cn xc nh mt phng n vn hnh tt
nht sao cho tho mn cc yu cu v nc m hiu ch mang li l cao nht. Di y
l mt v d v bi ton qun l vn hnh ti u.
V d
Gi s mt h cha c nhim v cp nc cho 3 h dng nc h lu. Gi W
l lng nc cp xung h lu hng nm t h cha; x
1
, x
2
, x
3
ln lt l lng nc
cp cho cc h dng nc 1, 2, 3; Y l lng nc cn li chy trong sng v h lu
cc cng trnh ly nc; B
1
, B
2
, B
3
l li ch mang li t cc h dng nc v l hm s
ca lng nc c cp tng ng x
1
, x
2
, x
3
.

W
H dng
nc 1
Y
H dng
nc 2
H dng
nc 3
H cha
x
1

x
2
x
3
B
1 B
2
B
3

Hnh 4-2

Trong bi ton ny cc bin quyt nh l x
i
, i=1, 2, 3. Gi s li ch mang li
cho cc h dng nc khi n c cp lng nc l x
i
c biu th theo th trn
hnh 4-3 v c th khi qut ho nh hm s bc 2 i vi cc bin s x
i
, c dng:

2
i i i i i i
B (x ) a x b x i 1, 2, 3 = = (4-27)
Cn xc nh phng thc phn phi nc trn h thng sao cho tng li ch
mang li l ln nht.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Bin x:Lng nc phn phi cho h dng nc (triu m3)
L
c
h

m
a
n
g

l
i

B

(
t
n
g
)
B1
B2
B3

Hnh 4-3

Rng buc v cn bng nc ca h thng c dng:

1 2 3
x x x Y W + + + = (4-28)
Hm B (x
1,
x
2
, x
3
) l hm mc tiu cn c cc i c dng:

3
2
i i i i i i
i 1
B (B (x ) a x b x ) max i 1, 2
=
= = =
, 3 (4-29)
Nh vy bi ton ti u c th vit di dng tng qut:

3
2
i i i i i i
i 1
B (B (x ) a x b x )
Max
x
=
= =
(4-30)
Vi rng buc:

3
i
i 1
x Y W
=
+ =
(4-31)

4.4.4. Ti u ha trong qun l vn hnh h thng
4.4.4.1. Khi nim hm mc tiu
Trong giai on qun l h thng ngun nc cn phi xc nh phng n phn
phi nc v iu hnh h thng mt cch hp l.
Bi ton qun l vn hnh h thng c t ra nh sau: Gi s cc yu cu v
nc (ti, tiu, cp nc v.v...) c n nh trc vi mc W
i
(t), vi i=1, 2, 3,...,
n, trong n l s cc yu cu v nc i vi h thng. Ly mt s v d minh ho
nh sau: Mt h cha nc cn cp nc cho 3 h dng nc vi mi h dng nc c
yu cu cp nc tng ng l W
1
, W
2
,W
3
, ta c n=3.
Trong thc t thng gp 3 loi bi ton nh sau:
- Dng th nht: iu hnh h thng sao cho mt hm hoc mt phim hm no
m n cn c lm cc tr, hm mc tiu trong trng hp c th c dng:
min (hoc max) (4-32) J F(U, Z, X)dt
0
T
=

- Dng th hai: iu hnh h thng sao cho h thng t trng thi n nh
trc, c biu din di dng bt ng thc hoc ng thc:
F(U, Z, X) B (4-33)
- Dng th ba: l t hp ca hai dng trn
Mt bi ton c th c iu khin vi hai hoc nhiu mc tiu khc nhau, v
c biu din bng mt trong hai dng trn. Trong trng hp ta c bi ton iu
khin a mc tiu. a mc tiu c th c t ra do cng mt ch th iu khin,
cng c th c t ra bi nhiu ch th iu khin.
Cc dng hm (4-32) v (4-33) c gi l hm mc tiu. Bi ton iu khin
m hm mc tiu c dng (4-32) gi l bi ton iu khin ti u.
V d 1:
Gi s ta cn iu khin lu lng nc qua nh my thy in trong cc thng
ma kit sao cho tng in nng t c l ln nht. Gi E l tng in nng t c
trong thi gian khai thc; E
i
l in nng t c thng th i, ta c hm mc tiu:

(4-34)
n n
E E N (V , q , Q ) t m
i i i i i
i 1 i 1
= =
= =
ax
u
V(t) = ( v
1
(t), v
2
(t),..., v
n
(t) l cc dung tch ca h cha
q(t) = (q
1
(t), q
2
(t),..., q
n
(t)) l lu lng ly ra t cc h cha bao gm lu lng
vo cc cng ly nc v lu lng x xung h lu.
Q(t) = (Q
1
(t), Q
2
(t),..., Q
n
(t)) l lu lng t nhin chy vo cc h cha.
V d 2:
Cn iu khin cc cng trnh x l trong thi k l sao cho mc nc cc
tuyn h du cng trnh kho nc phng l khng vt qu mt mc nc cho php ti
tuyn khi xut hin l nh hn hoc bng l thit k phng l. Khi hm mc tiu
ca bi ton l cc bt ng thc c dng:
Z
j
(t) [ Z ]
j
(4-35)
V d 3:
Gi s cn iu khin lu lng nc qua h cha xung h du sao cho cc i
nng lng in trong ma l c m t bng phng trnh (4-34) v tho mn yu
cu phng l cho h du theo tiu chun phng trnh (4-35) khi l xy ra trn h thng
khng vt qu l thit k phng l. Trong trng hp ny c bi ton a mc tiu vi
hai hm mc tiu c dng khc nhau.
4.4.4.2. Khi nim v rng buc ca bi ton iu khin
H thng c iu khin thng phi chp nhn mt gii hn no c gi
l min iu khin. C hai dng rng buc nh sau:
- Rng buc v iu khin: vc t iu khin U(t) = (u1(t), u2(t),..., u
m
(t)) trong
bt k bi ton iu khin no cng khng th chn tu m thng c rng buc
bi cc gii hn nht nh. Cc gii hn c biu th bi cc bt ng thc c
dng:
(4-36) G (U, Z, X) B
u

trong G
u
(U, Z, X) l vc t cc hm rng buc; B
u
l vc t cc hng s. Dng
(4-36) c vit di dng khai trin nh sau:
vi cc B G (U, Z, X) B
u1 u1
u1
, B
u2
,..., B
um
l cc hng s.
(4-37) G (U, Z, X) B
u2 u2
............................
G (U, Z, X) B
um um

Chng hn i vi kho nc lu lng qua cng trnh trong mt s trng hp c
th b rng buc bi cc biu thc c dng sau:
q
j
min qx
j
(t) q
j
max (4-38)
- Rng buc v trng thi: Vc t bin trng thi ca h thng thay i ty thuc
v s thay i ca iu khin U(t). Tuy nhin, trng thi ca h thng cng ch c
thay i trong gii hn nht nh, v c biu th cng bng cc rng buc dng bt
ng thc:
vi cc B G (U, Z, X) B
x1 x1
x1
, B
x2
,..., B
x
L
l cc hng s.
(4-39) G (U, Z, X) B
x2 x2
............................
G (U, Z, X) B
xL xL
Chng hn khi iu khin i vi h thng kho nc, th dung tch trong mi kho
nc ch c th thay i trong gii hn ln nht v nh nht ca n:
V
jmin
V
j
(t) V
jmax
(4-40)

4.5. Ti u ha i vi bi ton pht trin h thng ngun nc

y l bi ton tng qut nht ca quy hoch ngun nc. i vi mt vng,
min hoc lu vc sng, vi tim nng ngun nc nht nh, ngi lm quy hoch
phi nghin cu mt cch ton din gm nhng vn chnh nh sau:
- Kh nng khai thc ngun nc p ng yu cu pht trin vng
- S dng ti nguyn nc vo nhng mc ch no l hp l.
- Gii php quy hoch v bin php cng trnh no cn c thc hin.
- Chin lc u t: Trnh t u t pht trin vng c v s dng nc cng
nh u t xy dng cc cng trnh cp nc, phng l... va ph hp vi
kh nng ti chnh m li ch mang li l ti u nht.

Cc vn trn c gii quyt trn c s phn tch v cn nhc nhiu mt, trong
phn tch li ch kinh t l cn bn nht. Phn tch li ch kinh t lin quan n vic
la chn phng n ti u v kinh t. Khi cc m hnh ti u ho l cng c hu
hiu cho vic phn tch v tm kim phng n ti u.
Bi ton ti u c thit lp trong giai on ny l s lin kt ca cc bi ton
thit k, bi ton ti u i vi cc yu cu v nc v xem xt n trong chin lc
pht trin (lp k hoch u t pht trin).

y l mt bi ton phc tp, bi vy khi gii quyt loi bi ton ny cn thit s
dng k thut phn cp phn bi ton ln thnh nhng bi ton con c s bin t
hn v phc tp hn v cch tm nghim.

4.5.1. Bi ton chin lc u t xy dng cng trnh
d hiu, ta chia bi ton lm hai loi: loi th nht ch xt chi ph u t xy
dng; loi th hai c tnh n chi ph qun l vn hnh.
4.5.1.1. Khi cha tnh n chi ph qun l vn hnh (bi ton loi A)
Pht biu bi ton
Gi s i vi mt vng c th cn p ng yu cu v nc W(t) trong thi gian
quy hoch T , yu cu t mc ti a cui thi k quy hoch l Wmax. Gi s trong
giai on gii bi ton thit k h thng cng trnh xc nh c tp cc phng n
cng trnh tho mn yu cu nc t ra. Cn xc nh cc cng trnh no s c
a vo xy dng v xy dng vo thi gian no ca thi k quy hoch kinh ph
xy dng l nh nht.
V d:
V d mt h thng c 4 cng trnh s c xy dng. Vn u t xy dng C v
kh nng cp nc W
c
bit. Gi s cc cng trnh c xy dng phi p ng yu
cu nc W(t). Yu cu xc nh trnh t u t xy dng cc cng trnh sao cho chi
ph xy dng l ti thiu. Tc l, tm cc tiu ca hm mc tiu:
F = (4-41)
=

=

+
n
1 i
t
1 t
min
t
r) (1
it
C
it
x
Trong :
C
it
- chi ph xy dng i vi cng trnh th i:
C
it
= 0 nu n khng c xy dng vo nm t;
C
it
= C
it
nu n c xy dng vo nm t;
r - h s trit khu, t l bin thi gian tnh theo nm;
x
it
- h s ly gi tr bng 0 v 1: bng 0 tc l khng xy dng, khi nhn vi
C
it
s c tch bng 0, c ngha l khng c chi ph xy dng. Vic a
vo h s x
it
d dng trong qu trnh tnh ton.

4.5.1.2. C tnh n chi ph qun l vn hnh (bi ton loi b)
Khi c k n chi ph qun l vn hnh trong giai on khai thc, hm mc tiu
ca chin lc u t pht trin h thng cng trnh s c dng sau:
F = min (4-42)
T n
t
i i i it
t 0 i 1
(1 r) (a c b w )
= =
+ + +

Vi cc rng buc:
- Lng nc cp c ca h thng cng trnh nm t phi ln hn hoc bng
lng nc yu cu theo quy hoch ca nm :
(4-43)
n
it
i 1
w W(t
=

)
- Chng trnh tho mn yu cu v nc ca cng trnh th i vo nm t khng
vt qu nng lc ca cng trnh l w
i
:
0 w
it
w
i
(4-44)
Trong :
t - bin thi gian;
i - ch s cng trnh;
r - h s chit khu;
T - thi gian quy hoch tnh bng nm;
n - tng s cng trnh c nghin cu trong quy hoch;
W(t) - nhu cu nc tng cng ca vng;
W
i
- kh nng p ng yu cu nc ln nht ca cng trnh th i;
c
i
- chi ph xy dng cng trnh th i;
a
i
- chi ph qun l cng trnh hng nm ca cng trnh th i,
(ly c nh cho mi cng trnh);
b
i
- chi ph vn hnh cho mi n v lng nc ca cng trnh th i;
w
it
- chng trnh cp nc ca cng trnh th i trong nm t.
Cch gii bi ton ti u dng (4-42) c thc hin tng t nh bi ton cha
tnh n chi ph vn hnh, ch khc ch, vi mi phng n pht trin h thng phi
tnh chi ph qun l vn hnh cng trnh.

4.6. Bi ton ti u a mc tiu
4.6.1. Khi nim
Khi lp cc d n quy hoch v iu khin h thng ngun nc, c th phi gii
bi ton a mc tiu. Bi ton c t ra nh sau:
Gi s mt h thng no c c trng bi vc t X:
X = ( x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) (4-45)
Gi s c m mc tiu khai thc. Cn tho mn iu kin:
g
j
(X) b
j
vi j =1, 2,..., m (4-46)
Vi cc iu kin ti u ring:

f
1
(X) min (max)
f
2
(X) min (max)
.............................. (4-47)
f
i
(X) min (max)
..............................
f
m
(X) min (max)
Nh vy, mi mt mc tiu khai thc u cn khai thc h thng sao cho ti u
mc tiu ca mnh. Cc mc tiu m t trong biu thc (4-47) c th c quyn li mu
thun nhau. Tp hp cc im m quyn li ca mc tiu ny mu thun vi
quyn li ca mc tiu khc gi l vng tranh chp.
Bi ton m t theo biu thc (4-47) gi l bi ton a mc tiu.
Ta xt mt v d v thit k h thng kho nc.
Mt h thng h cha nc c thit k vi nhim v pht in v phng l.
Gi s cc mc nc dng bnh thng c n nh. Cn xc nh dung tch phng
l trn h thng sao cho hiu ch pht in mang li l ln nht ng thi hiu ch
phng l cng ln nht.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
V
B
1

h
o
c

B
2

Hnh 4-4: Quan h B
1
= f
1
(V) v B
2
= f
2
(V)

Gi B
1
l hiu ch tng cng do hiu ch pht in mang li, B
2
l s gim thit
hi (c coi l hiu ch mang li v mt phng l) do c s iu tit l cc kho nc
thng lu. Ta c bi ton ti u hai hm mc tiu:
B
1
(V) max (4-48)
v B
2
(V) max (4-49)
Trong V l vc t cc dung tch phng l:
V = ( V
1
, V
2
, V
3
,..., V
j
, ... V
n
) (4-50)
Khi tng dung tch phng l ca cc kho nc trn h thng cng ln th hiu
qu phng l B
2
cng ln. Nhng v mc nc dng bnh thng n nh nn hiu
qu pht in B
1
cng gim. Nh vy, hai mc tiu khai thc mu thun nhau. S mu
thun gia hai mc tiu phng l v pht in i vi mt kho nc c lp c th
minh ha trn hnh 4-4.

4.6.2. Phng php gii bi ton ti u a mc tiu
Hin nay tn ti nhiu phng php gii bi ton ti u a mc tiu, nhng nguyn
tc chung l a bi ton nhiu hm mc tiu v bi ton mt hm mc tiu (N. N. Moi
xeep: Cc vn ton hc trong phn tch h thng, Nayka - Mascova, 1981).
Ni chung, i vi bi ton a mc tiu, vic tm nghim ca bi ton thc cht
l bi ton ti u c iu kin. Mt nghim c gi l ti u s mang li quyn li tt
hn cho mc tiu ny v s lm thit hi n quyn li ca mc tiu khc. Bi vy c
th ni, li gii ti u bi ton a mc tiu l tm c mt tho hip tt nht gia cc
mc tiu.
Phng php trng s
Vi phng php trng s ngi ta a hm mc tiu dng (4-47) v dng mt
hm mc tiu c dng:
F(X) = c
1
f
1
(X)+ c
2
f
2
(X) + ... + c
i
f
i
(X) +... + c
n
f
n
(X) (4-51)
Hay l: F(X) = (4-52)
n
i i
i 1
c f (X)
=
Vi 0 c
i
1 v = 1 (4-53)
n
i
i 1
c
=
Rng buc: g
j
(X) b
j
vi j =1, 2,..., m (4-54)

Cc h s c
i
c chn ty thuc vo mc u tin ca tng mc tiu. Quyn
li ca mi mc tiu b xm hi ty thuc vo mc u tin ca cc mc tiu khc.
Khi gii bi ton ti u dng (4-52), ngi ta phi tnh ton theo cc phng n
khc nhau ca s la chn cc h s c
i
. Trn c s phn tch kt qu cc phng n v
nh hng ca vic chn cc c
i
n gi tr ti u ca tng mc tiu s chn c mt
nghim hp l, tc l chn c tho hip chp nhn c gia cc mc tiu.
S chn cc h s c
i
c m t trn hnh 4-5.


M t cc hm mc tiu ca
cc mc tiu ring f
i
(X)
Thit lp hm mc tiu chung

n
i i
i 1
F(X) c f (X)
=
=

Vi cc rng buc g
j
(X) b
j
; j =1, 2,..., m
Chn cc phng n h s c
i
vi iu kin
0 c
i
1 v
n
i
i 1
c 1
=
=

Gii bi ton ti u tm nghim ti u:
- Tham s ti u ca h thng: X
*
= (
1 2 k mk
x , x ,...., x ,..., x )

- Cc gi tr ti u cc hm mc tiu F(X
*
), f
i
(X
*
), vi i=1, 2,...,n
Phn tch nh hng ca cc phng n la chn c
i
n
hm mc tiu ring ca cc i tng khai thc h thng.
T ra quyt nh phng n chn

Hnh 4-5: S xc nh phng n ti u theo phng php trng s

Phng php s dng cc ch s tiu chun
Phng php ny cng a bi ton nhiu hm mc tiu v dng bi ton mt
hm mc tiu bng cch gii bi ton ti u vi mt hm mc tiu ring trong khi
khng cho php gi tr ca cc hm mc tiu cn li vt qu mt gii hn no . Gi
s c bi ton nhiu hm mc tiu c dng:
f
1
(X) min
f
2
(X) min
.................... (4-55)
f
i
(X) min
....................
f
m
(X) min

Vi rng buc:
g
j
(X) b
j
vi j =1, 2,..., m (4-56)
Trong : X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
k
,..., x
mk
) l vc t m
k
tham s ca h thng.
Gi s chn mt hm mc tiu ring, chng hn f
1
(X), m n cn c cc tiu,
ta c:
f
1
(X) min (4-57)
Cc mc tiu cn li cn tho mn iu kin:
f
2
(X) f ( = X)
2
*
1
f
3
(X) f ( = X)
3
*
2
....................... (4-58)
f
i
(X) (X) f
*
=
i i

.......................
f
n
(X) = (X) f
*
n n
Cc gi tr
i
= vi i =1, 2,..., n l cc gi tr n nh trc i vi hm mc
tiu th i. Vic n nh cc gi tr
(X) f
*
i
i
= trong biu thc (4-58) s nh hng n
gi tr ti u ca cc hm mc tiu cn li. Bi vy, trong thc t cn xem xt vic
thay i cc gi tr sao cho tho ng. Vn ny c gii quyt bng cch
xem xt li ch v thit hi i vi cc i tng m yu cu ca h c n nh trc
theo biu thc (4-58). Cch lm tng t c th thc hin i vi bt k hm mc tiu
no trong s n hm mc tiu ca bi ton.
(X) f
*
i
(X) f
*
i
Vi cch thay
i
= ta c th vit: (X) f
*
i
f
i
(X) min (4-59)
vi
l l
f (X) i ; 1, n - 1 = ! !


M t cc hm mc tiu ca
cc mc tiu ring f
i
(X)
Chn hm mc tiu ring tm nghim ti u f
i
(X)
V i cc rng buc g
j
(X) b
j
; j =1, 2,..., m
Chn cc phng n h s
l
vi l=1, 2, 3...n-1 v li
Gii bi ton ti u tm nghim ti u:
- Tham s ti u ca h thng: X
*
= ( ) ,..., ,...., ,

mk k
x x x x
2 1

- Gi tr ti u hm mc tiu f
i
(X
*
)
Phn tch s hp l ca cc phng n la chn
i
n hm
mc tiu ring ca cc i tng khai thc h thng.
i =1
ng
Sai
i > n
i=i+1
Kt thc
ra quyt nh
Hp l
Khng
hp l

Hnh 4-6: S m t qu trnh la chn cc gi tr
i
trong qu trnh tm nghim


Chng 5- K thut phn tch h thng... 85

Chng 5

KY THUT PHN TCH H THNG NG DUNG
TRONG QUY HOACH VA QUN L NGUN N C

5.1. L thuyt phn tch h thng

Sau chin tranh th gii ln th hai, do yu cu ca thc t sn xut, cc nh
khoa hc phi xem xt cc phng php ton hc nhm tm kim li gii ti u khi
thit k v iu khin cc h thng phc tp. Hai mn hc mi ra i (vo nhng nm
50) - l Vn tr hc v L thuyt iu khin. Hai mn hc ny c mt mc tiu
chung l nghin cu cc chin lc ti u khi iu khin v thit k cc h thng phc
tp. Tuy nhin, vn tr hc hng nhiu hn vo cc bi ton tnh, tc l cc bi ton
khng cha cc bin ph thuc vo thi gian, hoc c th cng a v bi ton tnh
bng cch a v cc s nhiu giai on. Trong khi l thuyt iu khin li bt
u t cc bi ton iu khin trong c cha cc bin ph thuc thi gian.
L thuyt iu khin v vn tr hc l cng c rt hiu qu cho cc nh nhin
cu khi gii quyt cc bi ton thit k v iu khin cc h thng k thut. Tuy nhin,
hai mn hc ny cng ch dng li bi ton c quy m khng ln. Trong thc t
thng gp nhng h thng ln v cu trc phc tp, c bit l nhng h thng c
cha nhiu yu t bt nh. Mt s h thng c cu trc yu, khng cho php m t
bng ngn ng ton hc mt cch cht ch. Trong nhng trng hp nh vy, vn tr
hc v l thuyt iu khin khng cho li gii mong mun. Nhng loi h thng nh
vy i hi mt phng php phn tch khoa hc, cn cn nhc nhiu mt v kt hp
phng php hnh thc v phi hnh thc. iu i hi mt s pht trin mi ca
ton hc v do ra i mt mn khoa hc mi - L thuyt phn tch h thng. L
thuyt phn tch h thng thc ra ch l giai on pht trin ca vn tr hc v l
thuyt iu khin.
5.1.1. Vn tr hc l g?
C th pht biu mt cch tng qut nh l mt nh ngha v vn tr hc
nh sau:
Vn tr hc l mt mn khoa hc m nhim v c bn ca n l tm kim li
gii ti u khi thit k mt h thng phc tp. Cc thng s cu trc ca h thng tm
c trong qu trnh ti u ho gi l cc thng s ti u thit k ca h thng.
Gi s cn xc nh cc thng s cu trc ca h thng vi s i hi ti u theo
mt tiu chun no y, tc l lm cc tr mt hm mc tiu no , c dng:
F(X) min (max) (5-1)
hoc F(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
i
,..., x
n
) min (max) (5-2)
vi cc rng buc:
g
1
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
1
(5-3)
g
2
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
2
(5-4)
g
2
(x
3
, x3,..., x
n
) b
3
(5-5)
...................................
g
j
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
j
(5-6)

...................................
g
m
(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) b
m
(5-7)
Trong b
1
, b
2
,..., b
j
,..., b
m
l nhng gi tr bit.
Gi s X l vc t hng n chiu ca cc bin thng s cu trc.
X = ( x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) (5-8)
khi h t (5-2) n (5-7) c th vit li di dng gn hn:
F(X) min (max) (5-9)
vi g
j
(X) b
j
J 1, m = (5-10)
Nghim ti u ca bi ton s l:

2
* * * *
(x , x , ..., x , ... x )
1 i
n
*
X = (5-11)
Nu h (5-9), (5-10) tha mn, ta c nghim ti u ca bi ton .
Cc biu thc ton hc (5-9), (5-10) gi l m hnh ti u. Cc phng php ton
hc i vi bi ton ti u (5-9), (5-10) gi l cc phng php ti u. Trong thc t,
cc phng php ti u ho c tn gi l "quy hoch ton hc". Chng hn quy hoch
tuyn tnh c p dng i vi cc m hnh ti u dng tuyn tnh, quy hoch phi
tuyn c p dng i vi cc bi ton phi tuyn.
Cn phn bit r cc khi nim "bi ton ti u" v " phng php ti u". Khi
xc nh chin lc ti u mt h thng bng cch xc lp cc m hnh ti u dng
tng qut (5-9) v (5-10) gi l bi ton ti u, cc phng php gii cc bi ton dng
trn gi l cc phng php ti u.
Vn tr hc c nhim v c bn l tm kim gi php ti u khi thit k hoc xc
lp mt chin lc khai thc h thng trn c s thit lp cc m hnh ti u v
phng php gii cc bi ton ti u ha.

5.1.2. Khi nim v l thuyt iu khin
L thuyt iu khin c nghin cu bt u t cc i tng m chuyn ng
ca n c m t bng phng trnh vi phn thng. Bi vy, c khi nim v bi
ton iu khin hy bt u t v d i vi lp bi thuc loi ny.
Gi s mt i tng chuyn ng theo quy lut c m t bng phng trnh
c dng:

dS
f(x, s, u, t)
dt
= (5-12)
Trong x=x(t) l tc ng t bn ngoi (nhiu) khng iu khin c, s = s(t)
l bin trng thi ca h thng; u = u(t) l bin iu khin c vit di dng y :
u = u(x(t), s(t), t ) (5-13)
Cng c th bin iu khin u(t) ch ph thuc vo mt hoc hai bin s ca
(5-13), chng hn:
u = u(x(t), t); u = u(s(t), t) hoc u = u(t); u = u (s(t)); u = u(x(t)). (5-14)
Phng trnh (5-12) m t s thay i trng thi ca i tng iu khin nn
cn gi l Phng trnh trng thi.
Nhim v ca bi ton iu khin l xc nh chin lc iu khin, tc l tm
kim iu khin u(t) i tng iu khin t mc tiu mong mun ca ngi iu
khin. Mc tiu iu khin c lng ho bng mt hm s c cha bin iu khin
u(t), bin trng thi s(t) v nhiu x(t), c gi l hm mc tiu. Nh vy, t c
mc tiu mong mun, cn phi lm cc tr hm mc tiu.
Gi s cn iu khin i tng no , m quy lut chuyn ng ca n c
m t theo (5-12), t trng thi ban u So = S(to) n trng thi St = S(T) sao cho t
cc tr mt phim hm no y c dng:

T
0
J F(x, u, s, t)dt =

max (min) (5-15)
Vi biu thc rng buc l G(x,u,s,t) b ; b l hng s cho trc.
Trong J gi l hm mc tiu hoc cn gi l hm cht lng, c ngha khc
nhau tu thuc vo lp bi ton c nghin cu.
Nghim ca bi ton iu khin ti u l vc t iu khin ti u:
U U (t)
* *
= (5-16)
Tng ng vi iu khin ti u U
*
l qu o ti u S
*
:
S
*
= S (t)
*
(5-17)
Nh vy, nhim v ca bi ton iu khin l tm iu khin U
*
v qu o iu
khin S
*
a i tng t c mc tiu iu khin t ra.
Ta y mt v d minh ho vi mt h cha lm nhim v pht in. Bi ton
c t ra nh sau: Gi s dung tch ban u ca h cha ti thi im t
0
l V
0
tng
ng vi mc nc ban u l H
0
. Tm qu trnh lu lng qua tua bin q
tb
(t) sao
cho tng cng sut ca trm thu in trong khong thi gian T t t
0
n t
n
(T = t
n
- t
0
)
l ln nht.
Phng trnh trng thi biu th s thay i dung tch h cha chnh l phng
trnh cn bng nc:
( )
r
dV
Q(t) q (t) dt
dt
= - (5-18)
Vi: q
ra
(t) = q
tb
(t)+q
x
(t)+q
tt
(t)
Hm mc tiu c dng:

tn tn
J N(t)dt 8,5q (t)H(t)dt
tb
to to
= =

max (5-19)
Vi rng buc: q
min
q
tb
(t)q
max
Trong :
Q(t), q
tt
(t) - lu lng n h v lu lng tn tht l cc i lng ngu
nhin (nhiu ngu nhin);
q
tb
(t) - bin iu khin - iu khin ca h thng ti thi im t;
H(t) - chnh lch ct nc thng h lu; q
x
(t) l lu lng x tha ti thi
im t; N(t) l cng sut ca trm thu in ti thi im t;
V - dung tch h ti thi im t ng vai tr bin trng thi, V = V(t);
q
min
- lu lng nh nht cn x xung h du m bo yu cu cp nc
cho h du;
q
max
- gi tr ln nht x qua tuyc bin ph thuc vo kh nng tho qua cc
t my.
Gi bi ton ti u trn s tm c iu khin ti u l qu trnh lu lng qua
tua bin
tb tb
q q (t)
* *
= , s bin i dung tch h tng ng
t
V V (t)
* *
= l qu o ti u
hoc cn gi l trng thi ti u.


5.1.3. Nhng hn ch ca vn tr hc v l thuyt iu khin - S ra i
ca l thuyt phn tch h thng
Nh trnh by trn, l thuyt iu khin v vn tr hc l cc phng php
rt hiu lc khi thit lp chin lc ti u trong thit k v iu khin cc h thng k
thut v kinh t. Tuy nhin khng phi trng hp no cng c hiu lc bi l n c
nhng hn ch sau y:
1. Vn tr hc v l thuyt iu khin i hi s m t cht ch cc qu trnh
xy ra trong h thng bng cc hm ton hc. Do vy n ch thch hp i vi nhng
h thng c cu trc cht, tc l cc h thng m cc mi quan h trong n c m t
mt cch tng minh bng cc hm ton hc.
2. i vi nhng h thng ln v phc tp mc d c th thit lp c cc m
hnh ti u, nhng cc phng php ti u hin c khng c hiu lc khi gii cc m
hnh ti u ny. Do hn ch v phng php ti u ho, trong mt s trng hp ngi
ta thit lp cc m hnh gin ho dn n s khng chnh xc ca li gii hp l.
3. Vi nhng h thng c nhiu yu t bt nh, c bit l bt nh v mc tiu,
khng th thit lp c cc m hnh ti u v m hnh iu khin v thiu thng tin.
Trong trng hp , mc tiu v dng ca bi ton ti u (hoc iu khin) s c
hnh thnh nh k thut phn tch (thuc phm tr l thuyt phn tch h thng), trong
qu trnh thit lp bi ton.
4. Cui cng cn nhn mnh thm l, vn tr hc v l thuyt iu khin thng
i hi mt s m t ton hc cht ch v chnh xc cc qu trnh ca h thng. Nhng
h thng c cu trc yu trong c h thng thu li, iu ny khng phi lc no
cng thc hin c. Nhng h thng nh vy s l i tng nghin cu ca l thuyt
phn tch h thng.
Do nhng hn ch ca vn tr hc v l thuyt iu khin m mt mn hc mi
ra i - L thuyt phn tch h thng. L thuyt phn tch h thng k tha ton b
phng php ton hc c trong vn tr hc v l thuyt iu khin. Cc mc tiu ca
l thuyt phn tch h thng cng l mc tiu nghin cu ca bi ton vn tr v bi
ton iu khin - Chin lc tm kim li gii hp l cho h thng khi thit k v iu
khin n.
S pht trin ca l thuyt phn tch h thng l ch n b sung thm h thng
phng php lun v phng php phn tch, bao gm:
H thng cc quan im
H thng cc phng php phn tch
Hon thin cc phng php ti u ha
Nguyn l v tip cn h thng.
S b sung v mt l thuyt ca l thuyt phn tch h thng nhm hon thin
kh nng la chn li gii hp l i vi cc h thng phc tp. R rng, l thuyt
phn tch h thng ch l giai on pht trin ca l thuyt vn tr v iu khin. Nh
vy vn tr hc v l thuyt iu khin l mt b phn c bn ca l thuyt phn tch
h thng. L thuyt phn tch h thng l mt mn khoa hc c pht trin trn c s
vn tr hc v l thuyt iu khin bng cch a vo h thng cc quan im v
phng php phn tch hin i, nhm hon thin kh nng la chn li gii ti u i
vi cc h thng phc tp.
Phn tch h thng c th hiu l nhng tp hp cc phng php phn tch nhm
tm li gii ti u khi thit k hoc iu khin mt h thng no .
S hnh thnh l thuyt phn tch h thng c lin quan cht ch vi nhng tin
b v phng php tnh v cng c tnh ton hin i, c bit l kh nng m phng
trn my tnh in t.
Mt c th quan trng ca l thuyt phn tch h thng l, trong khi vn tr hc
v l thuyt iu khin coi trng vic s dng phng php ti u ha tm ra li gii
ti u cho h thng th l thuyt phn tch h thng li s dng rt hiu qu phng
php m phng trong qu trnh tm kim li gii hp l cho bi ton t ra.

5.2. H thng phng php lun ca l thuyt phn tch h thng

Nh trnh by trn, mc ch phn tch h thng l xc nh li gii ti u
hoc hp l khi thit k v iu khin h thng. Phn tch h thng bao gm h thng
cc quan im, cc nguyn l v cc k thut phn tch h thng. K thut phn tch
h thng rt a dng bao gm c cc phng php chun v cc phng php phi
hnh thc. Di y, s trnh by h thng phng php lun ca l thuyt phn tch
h thng.

5.2.1. Phng php m phng v phng php ti u ha trong phn
tch h thng
Phn tch h thng, c bit l h thng ngun nc s dng hai cng c chnh l
phng php ti u ho v phng php m phng. Phng php ti u ho c nhng
hn ch nht nh, khc phc nhng hn ch ca phng php ti u ho, ngi ta
p dng cc phng php m phng, mt phng php rt c th v c hiu lc ca
l thuyt phn tch h thng.
Phng php m phng l phng php s dng cc m hnh m phng nh
gi cht lng ca h thng khi thit k v iu khin n. S phn tch cht lng ca
h thng c tin hnh bng cch a ra tt c nhng tnh hung hoc phng n c
th v phn tch tt c phn ng ca h thng m ta quan tm tng ng vi cc tnh

hung t ra. Theo s phn tch ngi nghin cu la chn nghim ca bi ton
trong s cc tnh hung t ra. Nh vy, phng php m phng ch tm nghim
trong tp hu hn cc tnh hung, bi vy nghim ca bi ton c th khng trng vi
nghim ti u. Do , phng php m phng khng cho nghim ti u m ch cho
nghim gn ti u. Cng v vy, nghim ca bi ton c gi l li gii hp l ch
khng gi l li gii ti u. Cc hm mc tiu thit lp cho phng php ti u v
phng php m phng c dng tng t nhau hoc c dng khc nhau, nhng h
thng ch tiu nh gi c a vo nh nhau i vi hm mc tiu. S khc bit ca
hai phng php ny l ch:
- Phng php m phng khng gii bi ton ti u m ch tm cc gi tr kh d
chp nhn c i vi hm mc tiu.
- V phng php ti u c nhng hn ch v phng php nhn nghim, bi vy
c th c s gin ho trong m phng i vi cc qu trnh ca h thng, trong khi
cc m phng c m t chi tit hn khi s dng phng php m phng.

5.2.2. H thng cc quan im v nguyn l tip cn h thng
5.2.2.1. H thng cc quan im
(1) L thuyt phn tch h thng coi trng tnh tng th, y chnh l quan im
h thng, th hin tnh bin chng trong nghin cu h thng. Xut pht t quan im
h thng, khi nghin cu mt h thng cn xem xt cc quy lut ca h thng trong
mi quan h tng tc gia cc thnh phn cu thnh h thng v quan h ca h
thng vi mi trng tc ng ln n. Quan im phi c lng ho bng cc m
hnh ton hc m t cc qu trnh ca h thng. ng thi v xu th pht trin ca h
thng c xc nh nh cc m hnh m phng, v qua c th pht hin cc tc
ng hp l ln h thng. S phn tch h thng trong mi quan h tng tc gia cc
qu trnh trong h thng s pht hin tnh "tri", m n khng nhn bit c nu ch
phn tch cc qu trnh ring r ca h thng.
(2) L thuyt phn tch h thng tha nhn tnh bt nh ca h thng, bao gm
bt nh v mc tiu, bt nh v s trao i thng tin trong h thng, s hiu bit
khng y ca ngi nghin cu v h thng v bt ng do s tc ng ngu nhin
t bn ngoi.
(3) Vi cc h thng ln, tn ti nhiu mi quan h phc tp lin quan n nhiu
lnh vc khc nhau. Bi vy, l thuyt phn tch h thng tn trng v tha nhn tnh
lin ngnh. Khi nghin cu cc h thng phc tp nh vy, cn thit c s tham gia
ca nhiu ngnh khoa hc. Trong qu trnh nhn nghim phi xem xt n quyn li
ca nhng i tng khc nhau v quan h qua li gia chng trong h thng. Nu cc
quyt nh ch v nhng quyn li cc b th trong qu trnh pht trin ca h thng,
cc quy lut c thit lp i vi h thng s b ph v.
(4) Tha nhn tnh bt nh, l thuyt phn tch h thng ch trng s kt hp
gia phng php hnh thc v phng php phi hnh thc, kt hp gia phn tch ton
hc v kinh nghim v tn trng vai tr ca tp th trong nghin cu.
5.2.2.2. Nguyn l tip cn h thng
i vi nhng h thng phc tp do s tn ti cc yu t bt nh trong h thng,
ngi nghin cu khng th ngay mt lc pht hin ht c nhng tnh cht ca h
thng, cng khng th d bo ngay c xu th pht trin ca h thng. Do , cc
mc tiu khai thc h thng cng ch hnh thnh r nt sau khi th phn ng ca h
thng bng cc k thut phn tch hp l. M hnh m phng ng vai tr c bit
quan trng trong qu trnh tip cn h thng.
Qu trnh tip cn h thng l qu trnh tm li gii ca h thng trn c s lin
tip lm r mc tiu ca khai thc h thng, v xem xt s cn thit b sung thng tin
v h thng.
Nguyn l tip cn tng bc trong phn tch cc h thng phc tp c coi nh
l mt nguyn tc i vi ngi nghin cu h thng.

5.3. Phn loi tng qut cc m hnh ti - u

Hin nay tn ti kh nhiu cc phng php ti u ho c phm vi ng dng
khc nhau. Trong cc bi ton k thut ngi ta c gng a cc bi ton ti u v cc
dng chun tc c v c th gii c. lm c iu cn c nhng gi thit
v nhng iu kin gin ho sao cho bn cht vt l ca bi ton c bo ton mt
cch tng i. C th c mt s mu bi ton ti u thch hp khi thit k v iu
khin h thng ngun nc. Do trong ti liu ny chng ti ch trnh by mt s
phng php in hnh cho cc dng p dng c.
5.3.1. Bi ton ti u tng qut
Bi ton ti u tng qut c th m t nh sau:
Cn tm cc tr hm mc tiu c dng:
F(X) min (max) (5-20)
Vi h cc biu thc rng buc:
g
j
(X) b
j
, vi j =1, 2,..., m (5-21)
H (5-20) v (5-21) c th vit di dng y :

1 2 i n
F(x , x , ..., x , ..., x ) min (max) (5-22)
vi cc rng buc:

1 1 2 i n 1
2 1 2 i n 2
j 1 2 i n j
m 1 2 i
g (x , x ,...., x ,...., x ) b
g (x , x ,...., x ,...., x ) b
..................................................
g (x , x ,...., x ,...., x ) b
.................................................
g (x , x ,...., x ,
n m
...., x ) b
(5-23)
Vi cc bin ca hm s l vc t c dng:
X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) (5-24)
Nghim ti u ca bi ton ti u l vc t nghim :
X
*
= (x
1
*
, x
2
*
,..., x
n
*
) (5-25)

5.3.2. Bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh
Bi ton (5-20), (5-21) c gi l tuyn tnh, nu hm mc tiu v cc rng
buc u l hm tuyn tnh i vi cc i s ca vc t X = ( x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
), tc l:
F(X) =
n
i i
i 1
c x
=
min ( max) (5-26)

vi rng buc
n
j i i j
i 1
a x b
=

vi j = 1, 2,..., m; (5-27)
v x
i
0 vi i =1, 2,..., n

5.3.3. Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn
Trong trng hp khi d ch mt trong hai biu thc (5-20) hoc (5-21) l phi
tuyn th bi ton trn c gi l phi tuyn.
Cc bi ton phi tuyn c chia ra lm hai loi: quy hoch li v quy hoch
lm. Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn li l bi ton m hm mc tiu l hm li, cn cc
rng buc to thnh mt tp hp li. Bi ton ti u c rng buc c gi l ti u c
iu kin, hay cn gi l bi ton cc tr vng.
5.3.4. Bi ton cc tr phim hm
Bi ton ti u m hm mc tiu c dng (5-28) c gi l bi ton cc tr
phim hm:

1
0
x
.
x
J(Z) F(Z, Z, x) dx =

(5-28)
Vi Z l vc t ct Z =[ ]
T
1 2 n
z (x), z (x),..., z (x)
.
Z =[
. . .
1
2 n
z (x), z (x)... z (x) ]
T

.
i
i
z (x) dz (x) / dx =

5.4. Ph- ng php gii cc bi ton Quy hoch tuyn tnh

Quy hoch tuyn tnh l mn ton hc nghin cu phng php tm gi tr nh
nht (min) hoc ln nht (max) ca mt hm tuyn tnh (hm mc tiu) theo mt s
bin, tho mn mt s hu hn rng buc c biu din bng h phng trnh v bt
phng trnh tuyn tnh.
5.4.1. Mt s v d
Xin trch ra mt s v d kinh in v cc bi ton thc t c th m t theo dng
bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh.
V d 1: Bi ton vn ti
C m im sn xut cng mt loi sn phm a v n im tiu th b. Cho rng
trong 1 n v thi gian lng cung v cu bng nhau, tc l:

i
m n
a b
j
i 1 j 1
=
= =
(5-29)
Gi x
ij
(x
ij
0) v c
ij
tng ng l lng sn phm v chi ph vn chuyn cho 1
n v sn phm t i n j. Tm phng n vn chuyn x
ij
sao cho chi ph vn chuyn
l nh nht, tc l:

m n
ij ij
j 1 i 1
Z c x
= =
=
min (5-30)
Cc rng buc ca bi ton s l:

n
ij j
j 1
m
ij i
i 1
ij
x b
x a
x 0
=
=
=
=
(5-31)
V d 2: Bi ton thc n
Gi th phi thit k mt thc n m bo nhu cu hm lng ti thiu hng
ngy ca 4 cht dinh dng l b
1
, b
2
, b
3
, b
4
. Gi s c hai loi thc n P
1
v P
2
cn phi
mua cho thc n trn. Hm lng cht trong 1 n v mi thc n v gi mi loi
thc n nh bng 5-1.

Bng 5-1: Bi ton thc n
Hm lng cht dinh dng c trong loi thc n
Loi cht dinh dng Nhu cu ti thiu hng ngy
P1 P2
N1 b
1
a
11
a
12

N2 b
2
a
21
a
22

N3 b
3
a
31
a
32

N4 b
4
a
41
a
42

Gi tin cho 1 n v thc n c
1
c
2

Tm phng n mua lng hai loi thc n l x
1
v x
2
sao cho tin mua l t nht
m vn m bo cht dinh dng ti thiu hng ngy.
Theo bi ton t ra ta c hm mc tiu cn ti u l:

1 1 2 2
Z c x c x min = + (5-32)
V cc rng buc:

11 1 12 2 1
21 1 22 2 2
31 1 32 2 3
41 1 42 2 4
i
a x a x b
a x a x b
a x a x b
a x a x b
x 0; i 1, 2, 3, 4
+
(5-33)

5.4.2. Hai dng c bn ca quy hoch tuyn tnh
5.4.2.1. Dng chnh tc
Nu hm mc tiu v rng buc ( 5-20) v (5-21) l cc biu thc tuyn tnh i
vi cc bin s, ta c m hnh ti u l tuyn tnh: M hnh tuyn tnh c gi l chnh
tc nu cc rng buc l ng thc. Ta c hm mc tiu ca m hnh tuyn tnh l:

1 1 2 2 i i n n
F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x min + + + + + (5-34)
Vi c
i
l hng s vi bin th i.
Vi rng buc l:

j j1 1 j2 2 jn n j
g (X) a x a x ... a x b ; j 1, m = + + + = = (5-35)
v x
i
0 vi i=1, 2,..., n.
Vi b
j
l hng s vi rng buc th j; a
ji
l cc hng s.
Trong trng hp bi ton cn tm cc i (max), phi nhn hm mc tiu vi
(-1) a v bi ton ti u dng chnh tc.
Bi ton tm cc i (5-21) c dng:

1 1 2 2 i i n n
F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x max + + + + + (5-36)
Vi c
i
l hng s vi bin th i.
Vi rng buc l:

j j1 1 j2 2 jn n j
g (X) a x a x ... a x b ; j 1, m = + + + = = (5-37)
v x
i
0 vi i=1, 2,..., n;
c a v dng chnh tc vi hm mc tiu:
max F(X) = min(-F(X))
tc l:

1 1 1 2 2 i i n n
F (X) F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x min = - = - - - - - -

V d: Tm X =

(x
1,
, x
2
, x
3
, x
4
) sao cho hm mc tiu:
Z = x
1
+ 2x
2
- 3x
3
+ 4x
4
max
Vi cc rng buc:
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
i
x x 7x x 100
2x 3x x 10x 800
x 0; i 1 4
- + + =
+ - + =

c a v dng chnh tc nh sau:
Tm X =

(x
1,
, x
2
, x
3
, x
4
Z = -x
1
- 2x
2
+ 3x
5
- 4x
4
min
Vi cc rng buc:

1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
i
x x 7x x 100
2x 3x x 10x 800
x 0; i 1 4
- + + =
+ - + =

5.4.2.2. Dng chun tc
Dng chun tc l dng m rng buc l bt ng thc, tc l:
g (X) a x a x ... a x ... a x b
j j1 1 j2 2 ji i jn n j
= + + + + + ; j 1, m = (5-38)
v x
i
0 vi i =1, 2,..., n.

5.4.2.3. - a bi ton QHTT v dng chun tc v dng chnh tc
+ Nu rng buc c dng g
j
(X) b
j
: Nhn 2 v ca biu thc rng buc vi (-1),
a bi ton v dng chun vi rng buc dng (5-21).
+ a bi ton chun tc v dng chnh tc:
Bi ton dng chun c th a v dng chnh tc bng cch thm cc bin ph
vo v tri ca cc bt ng thc. C m rng buc bt ng thc s c m bin ph. Do
dng chnh tc mi s c n + m nghim. Ta c:

n j
g (X) x 0
j +
+ = ; j 1, m = (5-39)
trong : x
n j +
l bin ph;
v x
i
0 vi i=1, 2,..., n.

5.4.3. nh l c bn v cc nh ngha v quy hoch tuyn tnh
5.4.3.1. nh l c bn ca quy hoch tuyn tnh
nh l (pht biu cho dng chnh tc): Phng n ti u ca quy hoch tuyn
tnh cha mt s bin dng ng bng s cc rng buc dng ng thc c lp,
cc bin cn li c gi tr 0.
V d bi ton QHTT c 5 bin v 3 rng buc nh sau:

1 1 2 2 i i 5 5
F(X) c x c x ... c x ... c x min + + + + + vi n = 5
vi cc rng buc ng thc:
a
11
x
1
+ a
12
x
2
+ + a
15
x
5
= b
1

a
21
x
1
+ a
22
x
2
+ + a
25
x
5
= b
2

a
31
x
1
+ a
32
x
2
+ + a
35
x
5
= b
3
S rng buc m = 3
Do nghim ti u c 3 bin khc khng, hai bin cn li c gi tr khng.
Chng hn nghim l: X ( , , 0, 0, )
*
= * * * .
Nu bi ton ti u tuyn tnh dng chnh tc c nghim th nghim ca bi ton
s nm cc im cc bin: cc nh tam gic (i vi bi ton phng) v nh cc a
gic (i vi bi ton 3 chiu) v.v... Cc phng php tm nghim ca bi ton thng
l cc php th dn ti cc im cc bin. Gi s d tm tt c nhng im
cc bin m khng tm c mt trng hp no c x
i
0 vi mi i th bi ton l
v nghim.
5.4.3.2. Khi nim v phng n c s chp nhn - c
a. Bin c s (BCS) v bin t do (BTD)
Gi s ta xt mt bi ton ti u chnh tc c n bin s, vi s phng trnh rng
buc ng thc l m. Ta gi:
Tp hp cc bin c chn tu vi gi thit l x
i
o, vi i=1 m,
trong m l s cc phng trnh rng buc c gi cc bin c s.
Tp hp cc bin cn li x
j
vi j i, j = (n-m) n c gi l bin t do.
b. Ph- ng n c s
L phng n m cc bin t do c chn bng khng, tc l ta gi nh x
j
=0
vi mi j thuc bin t do.
Gi tr ca cc bin c s c xc nh theo th tc sau:
- Chn bin c s ca bi ton
- Gi nh cc gi tr ca bin t do bng khng x
j
=0 vi mi j thuc bin t do.
- Xc nh gi tr ca bin c s bng cch gii h cc phng trnh rng buc
sau khi thay cc gi tr bng khng ca bin t do vo phng trnh.
c. Ph- ng n c s chp nhn - c
L phng n c s c cc bin c s nhn cc gi tr dng.
d. V d
Xt bi ton QHTT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Z 6x 2x 5x x 4x 3x 12x min = + - + + - +
Vi cc rng buc:
x
1
+ x
2
+ x
3
+ x
4
= 4
x
1
+ x
5
= 2
x
3
+ x
6
= 3 (5-40)
3x
2
+ x
3
+ x
7
= 6
x
i
0, j = 1, 2,..., 7
Chn bin c s:
Ph- ng n 1:
- Chn cc bin x
4
, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
l bin c s, tc l X = (0, 0, 0, x
4
, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
).
- Thay cc gi tr ca X vo h phng trnh rng buc (5-40) tm c gi tr
cc bin l X = (0, 0, 0, 4, 2, 3, 6).

Cc bin c s u nhn gi tr dng vy phng n 1 l phng n c s chp
nhn c.
Ph- ng n 2:
- Chn cc bin x
2
, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
l bin c s, tc l X = (0, x
2
, 0, 0,, x
5
, x
6
, x
7
).
- Thay cc gi tr ca X vo h phng trnh rng buc (5-40) tm c gi tr
cc bin l X = (0, 4, 0, 0, 2, 3, - 6).
Trong cc bin c s c mt bin (x
7
) nhn gi tr m vy phng n 2 khng
phi l phng n c s chp nhn c.

5.4.4. Gii bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh
5.4.4.1. Ph- ng php th
Phng php th c dng khi s bin s 4. V phng php ny c th
tham kho nhiu ti liu chuyn kho. Ta xem xt bi ton phng qua mt v d.
Bi ton:
Tm nghim ti u X (x , x )
1 2
* * *
= sao cho hm mc tiu:
Z = c
1
x
1
+c
2
x
2
max (5-41)
Cc rng buc:

11 1 12 2 1
21 1 22 2 2
i
a x a x b
a x a x b
x 0; i 1, 2
+
(5-42)
Cch gii
Cch gii bi ton phng c tin hnh nh sau:
1. V min chp nhn c (min D m X tho mn rng buc (5-40), xem hnh
(5-1).
+ Nu rng buc l ng thc th min chp nhn c l im A, giao ca
ng N
1
M
1
v N
2
M
2
.
+ Nu rng buc l bt ng thc th min chp nhn c l hnh AN
1
OM
2

bao gm c bin AN
1
v AM
2
.
2. V cc ng cng mc tiu (ng mc):
+ Cho mt gi tr c th Z = Z
0
. V ng x
2
=
o 1
1
1 2
z c
x
c c
-
+ Thay i gi tr Z
0
ta c cc ng song song. Trn mi ng hm mc
tiu c cng gi tr. Gi tr Z
0
cng ln th ng x
2
cng xa im 0.
3. Tm nghim ti u:
+ Di chuyn ng Z
0
(theo gi tr Z
0
) xc nh c nghim cc i ti A
+ Nu ng cng mc tiu tip xc ti 1 nh th nghim ti u l n tr.
+ Nu ng cng mc tiu tip xc ti 2 nh (1 cnh) th nghim ti u l
a tr.
X
2

1
2
1
1
0
2
x
c
c
c
z
x - =
N
2
N
1
A
x
2
*
D
O x
1
*
M
2
M
1
X
1

X
2

1
2
1
1
0
2
x
c
c
c
z
x - =
N
2
N
1
A
x
2
*
D
O x
1
*
M
2
M
1
X
1

Hnh 5-1 Hnh 5-2

Trng hp m rng: i vi bi ton c n bin x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
vi m rng buc.
+ Nghim ti u l to ca mt nh hay nhiu nh min cho php. Min
a din l mt a din li (n-m) chiu.
+ Nghim n tr nu c 1 nh tip xc vi mt cng mc tiu.
+ Nghim a tr nu c k nh ( k>1) tip xc vi mt mc tiu, to thnh 1
n hnh (k-1) chiu. l c s ca phng php n hnh.
V d: Bi ton phn b din tch cy trng
Gi s c khu ti vi din tch 1800 ha c quy hoch gieo trng 2 nhm cy:
- Nhm A: gieo trng 1 ha loi cy trng ny cn n 3 ha din tch t (trn
mi ha c 1/3 din tch c gieo trng v t trng chim 2/3 din tch). Gi tr tin
thu c trn mi ha gieo trng l 300USD/ha. Din tch ln nht gieo trng loi cy
ny l 400 ha.
- Nhm B: gieo trng 1 ha loi cy ny cn n 2 ha din tch t (trn mi
ha c 1/2 din tch c gieo trng v t trng chim 1/2 din tch). Gi tr tin thu
c trn mi ha gieo trng l 500USD/ha. Din tch ln nht l 600 ha.

Hy xc nh din tch gieo trng hai loi cy trn li ch mang li t gi tr
ln nht.
Gi x
A
din tch gieo trng nhm A v x
B
din tch gieo trng nhm B. Gi Z l
tng li ch hng nm ca hai loi cy trng, ta c hm mc tiu cn cc i l v cc
rng buc nh sau:
A B
A
B
A B
A B
Maximize Z 300x 500x
x 400
x 600
3x 2x 1800
x 0 x 0
= +
+

Hnh 5-3
Bng phng php hnh hc (xem hnh 5-3) c th tm c nghim ti u khi
x
A
= 200 ha v x
B
= 600 ha. Gi tr hm mc tiu Z
max
= 300200+500600 = 360.000 $.
5.4.4.2. Ph- ng php n hnh
Phng php n hnh l phng php c bn nht khi gii cc bi ton quy
hoch tuyn tnh. Phng php do G.B. Dantzig a ra nm 1948.
Ni dung ca phng php nh sau: Tm nh ti u ca a din cc nghim cho
php bng phng php ln lt th cc nh ca a din. vic th khng phi m
mm, ngi ta a ra thut ton i t nghim xu n nghim tt hn tc l i dn n
nghim ti u.
Gii bi ton Quy hoch tuyn tnh theo phng php n hnh c tin hnh
bng cch tnh th dn hoc bng bng gi l bng n hnh. Di y s trnh by
cch gii bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh bng cch lp bng n hnh.
1. Bng n hnh
Gi s c bi ton QHTT c hm mc tiu dng chnh tc (5-43) Dng tm
min (Bi ton tm max c th a v dng tm min nh trnh by trn). Rng buc
ca bi ton vit di dng tng qut cho m phng trnh rng buc.

1 1 2 2 i i n n
Z c x c x ... c x ... c x min = + + + + + ( 5-43)
Vi rng buc:

11 1 12 2 1i i 1n n 1
21 1 22 2 2i i 2n n 2
j1 1 j2 2 ji i jn n j
a x a x .. a x .... a x b
a x a x ... a x .... a x b
.................................................................
a x a x ... a x .... a x b
...............................
+ + + + + =
+ + + + + =
+ + + + + =
m1 1 m2 2 mi mn n m
.....................................
a x a x ... a ... a x b
+ + + + + =
(5-44)
Hoc vit gn di dng:
g (X) a x a x ... a x = b
j j1 1 j2 2 jn n j
= + + + ; j 1, m = (5- 45)
Gi s c phng n c s chp nhn c X vi cc bin c s tng ng l x
1
,
x
2
,..., x
j
,..., x
m
(k hiu tng qut l x
j
, j = 1, 2,..., m). Cc thng tin v mt bc lp
n hnh thc hin i vi phng n chp nhn c ghi trong bng (5-2), gi l bng
n hnh tng ng vi phng n c s chp nhn c X.
Cc ct v hng trong bng (5-2):
- Ct u tin ghi h s c
j
ca hm mc tiu i vi cc bin c s tng ng
- Ct 2: ghi tn cc bin c s
- Ct 3: Gi tr ca cc bin c s c xc nh trn c s gii h m phng
trnh (5-45) vi cc bin t do ly bng khng.
- Ct cui cng ghi h s q tnh theo cng thc (5-48) (xem mc sau).

- Dng trn cng ghi gi tr cc h s ca hm mc tiu c
i
vi i =1, 2,..., n. Gi
tr ny i vi cc bin ly bng khng nu bin vng mt trong hm mc tiu.
- Dng th 2: ghi tn cc bin x
i
vi i =1, 2,..., n
- Cc tng ng t ct 4 n ct 8 ghi h s ca cc s hng ca h phng
trnh rng buc (5-44). H s ny s bng khng nu phng trnh rng buc vng mt
bin tng ng.
- Dng cui cng l dng c lng cc phn t tng ng vi cc bin tnh theo
cng thc:
D
i
=
m
j ji i
j 1
c a c
=
-
vi i =1, 2,..., n (5-46)

Ghi ch: Cc gi tr c
j
ly ct u tin; c
i
ly hng trn cng theo ct tng
ng th i; a
ji
ly cc tng ng vi ct i.
Bng n hnh lp cho phng n chn u tin c gi l phng n xut pht.
Bng 5-2: Bng n hnh i vi bi ton tm min
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
c
1
...... c
i
c
n
H s c
j
Dng th
Tn bin c
s
Gi tr ca bin
c s x
1
....... x
i
...... x
n

H s
q
j
c
1
(1) x
1
x
*
1
a
11
....... a
1i
.... a
1n
q
1

....

(2) .... ..... .... ..... ..... .... ..... .....
c
j
(3) x
j
x
j
*
a
j1
....... a
ji
...... a
jn
q
j

.... (4) .... .... ...... ...... ...... .... .... .....
c
m
(5) x
m
x
m
*
a
m1
...... a
mi
.... a
mn
q
m

D

(6) D
1
.... D
i
..... D
n

2. Gii bi ton n hnh dng bng
Vi bng n hnh c xy dng (bt u t bng xut pht) tin hnh cc bc
lp n hnh i vi phng n chp nhn c nh sau.
1. Kim tra tiu chun ti u:
Nu cc phn t ca dng c lng l khng dng (D
i
0, vi mi i = 1, 2,..., n)
th phng n c s chp nhn c ang xt l ti u, thut ton kt thc. iu ny
c th ng ngay trong ln th u tin (bng xut pht).
2. Kim tra iu kin hm mc tiu khng b chn di (v nghim):
Nu c c lng no (D
i
> 0 vi i l bt k) m cc phn t trong bng n
hnh ct ng vi n u khng dng ( a
ji
0, vi j =1, 2,..., m) th hm mc tiu
ca bi ton khng b chn di. Thut ton kt thc v v nghim.
Nu 2 bc trn khng xy ra phi tm dng xoay v ct xoay lp bng n
hnh mi.
3. Tm ct xoay
Ct xoay ca bin i s l ct c gi tr c lng ln nht v khng m:
D
i0
= max (D
i
vi i = 1, 2,..., n) > 0 (5-47)
Ct tng ng x
i0
gi l ct xoay, cc phn t ca ct xoay l a
ji0
.
4. Tm dng xoay
Tnh gi tr q
j
:
q
j
=
j ji 0 ij
ij
x / a , nu a 0
, nu a 0
>
(5-48)
Dng xoay s l dng c gi tr q
j
nh nht:
q
0
= min (q
j
) (5-49)
Phn t giao im ca dng xoay v ct xoay gi l phn t xoay, k hiu l
j i
0 0
a

- t
o
k
ji
a l cc gi tr thuc ct xoay (ct i
0
) ca bng n hnh ang xt (gi l
bng c), j =1, 2,..., m.
- t
0
k
ij
a l cc gi tr ca dng xoay (dng j
0
) ca bng n hnh ang xt (bng
c), i =1, 2,..., n.
5. Lp bng n hnh mi
Lp bng n hnh mi thc cht l chuyn t phng n c s chp nhn c
c sang phng n c s chp nhn mi. Cch lm nh sau:
i) Chn bin mi thay th cho bin c s thuc dng xoay.
ii) Cc phn t v tr dng xoay thuc bng mi bng cc phn t tng ng
bng c chia cho gi tr ca phn t xoay:

k 1 k
j j i j i
0 0 oi
a a / a
+
=
0
vi j =1, 2,..., m (5-50)
k 1 k
j j i
oi
a a
+
0
, l gi tr ca phn t mi v phn t c thuc dng xoay.

iii) Cc phn t v tr ct xoay ca bng mi u bng khng, ngoi tr gi tr
phn t v tr phn t xoay bng 1.
iv) Gi tr ca cc phn t cn li c tnh t phn t c theo cng thc:

o
k 1 k k k
ji ji ji ij i j 0 0
0
a a a a / a
+
= - (5-51)

o
k 1 k k k
i i ij i i j 0 0
0
a / a
+
D = D - D (5-52)
Trong :
k 1
ji
a
+
- gi tr ca phn t ti (ij) ca bng mi;
k
ji
a - gi tr ca phn t ti (ij) ca bng c;
o
k
ji
a - gi tr phn t (ji
0
) thuc hng th j (tng ng vi ang xt ij) nm
trn ct xoay i
0
ca bng c;
k
ij
0
a - gi tr phn t (ij
0
) thuc ct th i ca phn t ang xt, nm trn dng
xoay j
0
ca bng c;
k 1
i
+
D - gi tr c lng ca bng mi ti ct th i ang xt;
k
i
D - gi tr c lng ca bng c ct th i ang xt;
i 0
D - gi tr c lng ca bng c ct ng vi ct xoay i
0
;
i j 0 0
a - gi tr ca phn t xoay ca bng c.
Khi chuyn sang bng n hnh vi c s mi vic nh gi tm ti u li
c bt u t bc u tin cho n khi r ht cc bin ca bi ton.
3. V d minh ha
Gii bi ton QHTT c dng:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Z x 6x 32x x x 10x 100x min = - + + + + + (5-53)
Vi cc rng buc dng phng trnh tuyn tnh:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
i
x 0x 0x x 0x 6x 0x 9
3x x 4x 0x 0x 2x x 2
x 2x 0x 0x x 2x 0x 6
x 0; i 1, 2,..., 7
+ + + + + + =
+ - + + + + =
+ + + + + + =
(5-54)
Chn phng n chp nhn c (phng n xut pht) vi cc bin c s l x
4
,
x
7
, x
5
. T h cc phng trnh rng buc (5-54) tm c phng n chp nhn u
tin X = (0, 0, 0, 9, 6, 0, 2). Cc thng tin v mt bc lp n hnh thc hin i vi
phng n chp nhn c ghi trong bng (5-3).
Theo tiu chun (5-47) v (5-48) tm c ct (4) l ct xoay, dng (3) l dng
xoay, phn t xoay c gi tr
0 0
j i
a 3 = (c du @).
Trong bng (5-3) cc gi tr c lng D (dng 5) cn tn ti cc gi tr dng
nn cha phi l phng n ti u. Ta phi lp bng n hnh mi.
Chn bin c s mi cho dng xoay l x
1
. Lp bng (5-4) trn c s bng n
hnh (5-3).
Tip tc i chiu vi tiu chun (5-47) v (5-49) bng n hnh mi (5-4) tm
c ct (5) l ct xoay, dng (3) l dng xoay, phn t xoay c gi tr
j i
0 0
a = 1/3 (c
du @).
Bng 5-3: Bng n hnh s 1 (bng xut pht)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
1 -6 32 1 1 10 100 (1) H s c
j
Tn bin
c s
Gi tr
bin c s
x
1
x
2
x
3
x
4
x
5
x
6
x
7
H s
q
j
(2) 1 x
4
9 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 9
(3) 100 x
7
2 3
@
1 -4 0 0 2 1 2/3
(4) 1 x
5
6 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 6
(5) D

301 108 -432 0 0 198 0

Bng 5-4: Bng n hnh s 2
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
1 -6 32 1 1 10 100 (1) H s c
j
Tn bin
c s
Gi tr
bin c s
x
1
x
2
x
3
x
4
x
5
x
6
x
7
H s q
j
(2) 1 x
4
25/3 0 -1/3 4/3 1 0 16/3 -1/3 +
(3) 1 x
1
2/3 1 1/3
@
-4/3 0 0 2/3 1/3 2
(4) 1 x
5
16/3 0 5/3 4/3 0 1 4/3 -1/3 16/5
(5) D

0 23/3
3
92 -

0 0 -8/3
3
301 -


Bng 5- 5: Bng n hnh s 3
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
1 -6 32 1 1 10 100 (1) H s c
j
Tn bin
c s
Gi tr
bin c s
x
1
x
2
x
3
x
4
x
5
x
6
x
7
H s q
j
(2) 1 x
4
9 1 0 0 1 0 6 0
(3) -6 x
2
2
3
1 -4 0 0 2 1
(4) 1 x
5
2 -5 0 8 0 1 -2 -2
(5) D

-23 0 0 0 0 -18 -108

Tng t bng c (5-3) trong bng n hnh mi (5-4) cc gi tr c lng D
(dng 5) cn tn ti cc gi tr dng nn cha phi l phng n ti u. Ta phi lp
bng n hnh mi (bng 5-5). Vic lp bng (5-5) c tin hnh tng t nh bng
(5-4). Nhng bng (5-4) by gi l bng c ca bng (5-5).
Khi lp bng (5-5) chn x
2
l bin c s mi th ch cho bin c s dng
xoay ca bng (5-4).
Trong bng (5-5) tt c cc gi tr c lng D (dng 5) khng cn tn ti cc
gi tr dng. Bi vy, y l phng n ti u.
Nghim ti u l X
*
= (0, 2, 0, 9, 2, 0, 0), gi tr ti u ca hm mc tiu l Z
*
= -1.

5.5. Quy hoch phi tuyn
5.5.1. Khi nim v quy hoch li
5.5.1.1. Tp li
Tp C R
n
c gi l li nu x
1
C, x
2
Cth on x
1
x
2
cng thuc C, tc l C
cha tt c cc im c dng:
x = lx
1
+ (1-l) x
2
; 0 l 1 (5-55)
Hnh 5-4 minh ho tp li tho mn biu thc dng (5-55). Hnh 5-5 khng tha
mn biu thc dng (5-55) khng phi tp li.
5.5.1.2. Hm li
a. nh ngha
Hm f(x) l hm li trn tp li C nu vi mi cp (x
1
, x
2
) thuc C v mi l
thuc [0,1], ta c:
f[lx
1
+ (1-l)x
2
] l f(x
1
)+ (1-l)f(x
2
) (5-56)
C ngha l im x = lx
1
+ (1-l)x
2
trong [x
1
, x
2
] th mi im ca th f(x)
lun nm di M
1
M
2
(hnh 5-6).
x
1
x
2
x
2
x
1

Hnh 5-4 Hnh 5-5

b. Cc tr ca hm li
Bt k cc tiu a phng no ca hm li trn tp li cng l cc tiu tuyt i
ca hm trn tp .
Nh vy, trong quy hoch li th gi tr ti u a phng cng l gi tr ti u
ton th.
f(x)
x
x
1
x
2
x
M
1
M
2

x
L
l
X
*
,l
*

Hnh 5-6 Hnh 5-7

5.5.2. Bi ton quy hoch li tng qut
5.5.2.1. Pht biu bi ton
Tm X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
F(X) = F(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) min (5-57)

Vi rng buc X C; g
j
(X) 0 vi j =1, 2,..., m (5-58)
Trong C l tp li; F, g l cc hm li trn C.
5.5.2.2. iu kin ti - u
a. Min nghim chp nhn - c
D = { x C; g
j
(X) 0 } j =1, 2,..., m
b. im yn nga (hnh 5-7)
Hm Lagrange L(X,l) = F(X) +
m
j j
j 1
g (X)
=
l
(5-59)
vi vc t l = (l
1
, l
2
,..., l
m
)
im yn nga ca hm L(X,l) l im ( x*, l*)
vi X D; l 0 sao cho (X,l*) L(X*,l*) L(X*,l) (5-60)

c. iu kin cn v ca ti - u
C hai nh l nhn bit X
*
l gi tr ti u.
nh l 1:
im X
*
l ti u khi v ch khi F
z
(X
*
) = F(X
*
), Z 0 vi mi Z D(X
*
).
Ngha l, nu i t X
*
theo mi hng m F(X) u tng th hm F(X) t gi tr min
ti X
*
.
F(X
*
), Z l o hm theo hng Z ca hm F(X) ti im X
*
.
nh l 2 (nh l Kuhn - Tucker):
Gi s bi ton quy hoch li tho mn iu kin Slater:
Vi mi X
0
thuc C tho mn rng buc g
j
(X) < 0 vi j =1, 2, ..., m)
iu kin cn v X
*
tr thnh nghim ti u l tn ti mt vc t m chiu,
khng m:
l = (l
1
, l
2
,..., l
m
) sao cho cp (X
*
, l
*
) l im yn nga ca hm Lagrange L(X, l
*
).
5.5.2.3. Khi nim v quy hoch lm
Hm F(X) l hm lm nu hm - F(X) l hm li.
Hm F(X) l lm khi:
F[lx
1
+ (1-l)x
2
] l F(x
1
)+ (1-l)F(x
2
) (5-61)
Vi mi x
1
, x
2
R
n
v mi l nm trong khong 0 l 1
5.5.3. Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn tng qut
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn tng qut c dng: Tm gi tr ti u (max hoc
min) ca hm mc tiu
F(X) min (5-62)
vi rng buc :
g
j
(X) b
j
; j=1, 2,..., m (5-63)
Trong : X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
) R
n
; cc hm F(X) v g
j
(X) l phi tuyn.
Tp cc nghim chp nhn c:
D = {XR
n
: g
j
(X) b
j
; j =1, 2,..., m} (5-64)
Ch :
i vi bi ton tm cc i dng: F(X) max c th a v dng tm cc tiu
bng cch tm cc tiu ca hm -F(X), tc l:
max F(X) = min (-F(X))
Tng t vy, nu rng buc c dng g
j
(X) b
j
; j=1, 2,..., m c th a v dng:
g
j
(X) - b
j
; j=1, 2,..., m
5.5.4. Ti u ca bi ton phi tuyn tng qut
Ti u ton b (ti u tuyt i):
max: F(X
*
) F(X); X D (5-65)
min: F(X
*
) F(X); X D
Ti u a phng (ti u tng i):
Nu tn ti ln cn V ca X
*
sao cho:
max: F(X
*
) F(X); X D V (5-66)
min: F(X
*
) F(X); X D V
X
*

l nghim ti u; F(X
*
) l gi tr ti u ca hm mc tiu F(X).
Trn hnh 5-8 (i vi hm 1 bin cc im A, C l cc tiu a phng v A l
cc tiu tuyt i; im B v D l cc i a phng vi D l cc i tuyt i.
Trong quy hoch li th ti u a phng cng l ti u ton th. Trong quy
hoch phi tuyn tng qut th ti u ton th cng l ti u a phng, nhng iu
ngc li khng ng.

A
B
C
D
f(x)
x

Hnh 5-8

Trong quy hoch tuyn tnh hm mc tiu t gi tr ti u ti im cc bin ca
min D. Trong quy hoch phi tuyn, hm mc tiu c th t gi tr ti u ti trong
hoc trn bin ca D v c th tn ti mt gi tr ti u a phng.
Khng c phng php chung no c hiu qu gii bi ton quy hoch phi
tuyn. Cc phng php c th chia lm 2 nhm:
- Cc phng php gradient c dng o hm.
- Cc phng php trc tip khng dng o hm.

5.5.5. Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn khng c rng buc
5.5.5.1. Bi ton
F(X)=F(x
1
, x
2
, x
3
, .., x
i
, .. ,x
n
) min (5-67)
Trong : X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
) E
n

5.5.5.2. iu kin cn v ca ti - u a phng
a. iu kin cn
Nghim ti u phi l nhng im m:
-
x 0
F(X ) (cc im dng) (5-68)
- Hm F(X
0
) kh thi ti X
0

Trong :
x 0
F(X ) l cc o hm ring cp 1, tc l:

x 0
F(X ) =
1
2
n
F(X)
x
F(X)
x
......
.......
F(X)
x
(5-69)
b. iu kin
Nhng im dng phi tho mn iu kin : im dng l cc tr nu ma trn
Hessein c xc nh dng i vi bi ton cc tiu v xc nh m i vi bi ton
cc i. Ma trn Hessein c dng:
2
n
x
F
2
..........
i
x
n
x
F
2
......
2
x
n
x
F
2
1
x
n
x
F
2
. . . . . . . . . . . .
n
x
j
x
F
2
........
i
x
j
x
F
2
.......
2
x
j
x
F
2
1
x
j
x
F
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
n
x
2
x
F
2
.........
i
x
2
x
F
2
..........
2
2
x
F
2
1
x
2
x
F
2
n
x
1
x
F
2
.........
i
x
1
x
F
2
.........
2
x
1
x
F
2
2
1
x
F
2
)) ( (

=
o
X F H (5-70)
Ma trn Hessein l ma trn i xng c dng tng qut A = (a
ij
) cp n, c xc
nh dng khi v ch khi nh thc cp n v mi nh thc ng vi phn t cho chnh
u dng. Tc l:

11 1n
11 12
n 2 1 11
21 22
n1 nn
a .............a
a a
...................... 0,...., 0; a 0
a a
a ............a
D > D = > D = > (5-71)
V d: Tm min F(X) = (x
1
-2)
2
+ (x
2
- 1)
2

Ta c:

F F
2(x1 2); 2(x2 1)
x1 x2

= - = -

Cc im dng ti
F F
0; 0
x1 x2

= =

khi
1
0 0
2
x 2; x 1 = =

Tnh c:
2 2 2
2 2
1 2 1 2
F F F
0; 2; 2
x x x x

= = =

Vy ma trn Hessein H l:

2 0
0 2

Ma trn con chnh th nht bng 2 > 0; ma trn chnh th hai bng 4> 0. V vy
ma trn Hessein l xc nh dng v hm F(X) c cc tiu ti X
0
= (2,1).
5.5.6. Gii bi ton ti u phi tuyn khng rng buc bng phng
php s dng o hm
C hai loi phng php gii bi ton ti u phi tuyn:
- Phng php dng o hm: Phng php gradient; phng php hng dc
nht; phng php Newton v.v...
- Phng php khng dng o hm: Phng php lp trc tip; phng php
Pwell; phng php Nelder v Mead v.v...
5.5.6.1. Ph- ng php gradient
Phng php gradient l phng php c dng ph bin tm cc tiu ca
hm. Phng php lun hi t nu hm c nghim ti u. Theo phng php ny php
lp c tnh theo cng thc:
X
(k+1)
= X
(k)
- l
(k)
F(X
(k)
) (5-72)
Trong :
k 0: bc lp th k.
l
(k)
> 0: l h s xc nh di ca bc i theo hng gradient. C th chn
l = const cho c qu trnh lp, hoc c th chn gi tr ti u ca l theo tng bc
lp theo phng php ti u 1 tham s.
F(X
(k
): hng

ngc li ca gradient ti X
(k)
.
Ban u ta chn im xut pht X
0
ty . Nu dy X
k
khng hi t ta ly l nh
hn. Khi l nh th X
k
s hi t v X
*
.
V d: Tm min ca f(x) = x
2
+3
Gii:
f(x) = 2x. Chn x
(0)
=1 2 x
(0)
= 2 0
x
(1)
= x
(0)
- lf(x
(0)
) = 1 - 2l; l > 0 .
f(x
(1)
) =2 x
(1)
= 2(1 - 2l);
Nu chn l 1/2 th f(x
(1)
) 0
V x
(2)
= (1 - 2l) - 2l(1 - 2l) = (1 - 2l)
2

Tip tc s c php lp th k c
x
(k)
= (1 - 2l)
k

Nh vy, nu 0 < l< 1 th x
(k)
0 khi k +
im x
*

= 0 l im cc tiu v f(x
*
) = 3.
5.5.6.2. Ph- ng php h- ng dc nht
Phng php hng dc nht c thc hin theo trnh t sau:
Chn im xut pht; tnh F(X
(k)
);
( k )
F(X .
Tnh vc t n v theo hng F(X
(k)
):
S
(k)
=
(k)
(k)
F(X )
F(X

t X
(k)
= X
(k)
- l
k
S
(k)

Dng ti u ho 1 tham s:
F(X
(k+1)
) = F(l
k
) min t tm c gi tr ti u
*
k
l .
Chn im mi: X
(k+1)
= X
(k)
-
*
k
l S
(k)
.
Tip tc thc hin cc php lp tip theo.
V d: Tm min ca hm Rosenbrock c dng
F(X) = 100(x
2
- x
1
2
)
2

Gii:
Chn im xut pht X
(k)
= (-0,5; 0,5)
Tnh F(X
(k)
) v
( k )
F(X ) :

F F
47; 50
x1 x2

= =

( k )
F(X ) =
2 2
47 50 + = 68,6

Tnh vc t n v theo hng F(X
(k)
):
S
(k)
=
(k)
(k)
F(X )
F(X
=
1 47
68, 6 50

= (0,658; 0,729)
T

Vc t S
(k)
vung gc vi ng cng mc tiu ca F(X) ti X
(k)
= (-0,5; 0,5)
t X
(k)
= X
(k)
- l
k
S
(k)

hay : X
(k0
=
k
0, 5 47
0, 5 50
-
- l

Dng ti u ho 1 tham s:
F(X
(k+1)
) = F(l
k
) =100[0,50.729l
k
(0,5+0,685l
k
)
2
]+(1,5+0,685l
k
) min t
tm c gi tr ti u
*
k
l = 0,164
Chn im mi: thay l =
*
k
l =0,164 vo cng thc X
(k+1)
= X
(k)
-
*
k
l S
(k)
.
X
(k+1)
=
0, 5 47
0,164
0, 5 50
-
-

F(X
(k)
) = 2,6
Tip tc tnh S
(k+1)
, cui cng qu trnh tnh hi t ti X
*
= (1;1) v gi tr ti u
ca hm F(X
*
) = 0.
Cng c th dng
k
l = const cho c qu trnh.
5.5.6.3. Ph- ng php Newton
Phng php Newton c s dng gii phng trnh c nghim gn ng, ng
thi cng l phng php ng dng gii cc bi ton ti u phi tuyn.
1. Ph- ng php Newton gii phng trnh c nghim gn ng
Phng php lp Newton-Raphson l mt phng php kh hiu qu khi phi
gii cc phng trnh c nghim gn ng, v do c p dng kh rng ri i vi
cc bi ton thuc h thng ngun nc. Ta bt u t bi ton c mt bin s.
a. Bi ton mt chiu
Gi s phi tm nghim xp x ca hm s f(x) = 0. Nu hm f(x) c o hm
khc khng, tc l f (x) 0 vi "x. Khi xp x nghim php lp n bt k c
dng:

f(x )
n
x x
n
n 1
f (x )
n
= -
+

(5-73)
Trong : ch s n ch ln lp th n. Php lp s kt thc ln lp th n+1 nu
tho mn biu thc c dng:
x x
n 1 n
- e
+
(5-74)
v gi tr x
n 1 +
l nghim ca phng trnh.
b. Bi ton nhiu chiu
Gi s cn tm nghim xp x ca h phng trnh vi n phng trnh tng ng
vi n bin s cha bit:
f
i
(X) 0 = vi i = 1, n (5-75)
Hoc di dng vc t F(X) = 0.
Trong X l vc t X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
)
Nghim gn ng ca h phng trnh trn ti ln lp th n l:
X X J(X ) F(X )
n n 1 n 1
1
n 1
= -
- -
-
-
(5-76)
Trong F(X
n-1
) l gi tr ca hm s tng ng vi gi tr ca X ti ln lp th
n-1 l X
n-1
; X
n
l ga tr gn ng ca hm s ti ln lp ang xt n; J(X
n-1
) l ma
trn Jacobien ti X
n-1
:

1 1 1
1 2 n
F F F
...
x x x

J(Xn-1) =
2 2 2
1 2 n
F F F
...
x x x
...........................

(5-77)

n n n
1 2 n
F F F
...
x x x

X=X
n-1

Phng php lp Newton - Raphon c dng nhiu trong phng php gi cc
phng trnh vi phn. Trong lnh vc ngun nc c ng dng gii cc bi ton v
chuyn ng ca nc ngm.
2. Ph- ng php Newton gii bi ton ti - u phi tuyn
Phng php ny c tin hnh theo cc bc sau:
- Chn im xut pht: gi tr ban u ca X
(k)
(im xut pht k =0).
- Tnh gi tr o hm cp 1 ti v tr xut pht:

( k )
x
F(X ) =
1
2
n
F(X)
x
F(X)
x
......
.......
F(X)
x
(5-78)
- Tnh ma trn Hesein theo gi tr ban u:

2 2
1 2 1 n
( k)
2 2
n 1 n n
F F
x x x x
H(F(X ))
F F
x x x x

=

LL
LLLLLLLL
LL
(5-79)
- Chn gi tr mi: X
(k+1)
=X
(k)
+
*
k
l H(F(X
(k)
).
( k )
x
F(X ) = X
(k)
+
*
k
l .S
(k)
.
V tip tc vi cc php lp tip theo cho n khi
*
k
l nh s c nghim
ti u.
V d:
Tm (x
1
, x
2
) sao cho cc tiu hm mc tiu:
F(X) =
2 1
2 1
1 1
4
x x
x x + + + min (5-80)
Gii:
1. Chn im xut pht: gi tr ban u ca X
(0)
= (1,13; 3,56).
2. Tnh gi tr o hm cp 1 ti v tr xut pht:

( 0)
x
F(X ) =
2
1
2
2
1
4
x
1
1
x
-
-
=
3, 21
0, 92

Tng ng vi gi tr xut pht c chn X
(0)
= (1,13; 3,56).
3. Tnh ma trn Hesein theo gi tr ban u:

3
1 ( 0)
3
2
2
0
x
H(F(X ))
2
0
x

=

=
1, 41 0
0 0, 04

Gi tr:
1 ( 0)
0, 71 0
H (F(X ))
0 25
-

=

4. Chn gi tr mi: X
(1)
=X
(0)
+
*
k
l H
-1
(F(X
(0)
).
( 0)
x
F(X )
X
(1)
=
1, 13
3, 56
-
k
l

25 0
0 71 , 2 4, 21
0, 92

=
1,13
3, 56

-
k
l
2, 28
23

*
k
l = 0,112
Chn c bin mi l: X
(1)
=
1,13
3, 56

- 0,112
2, 28
23

=
0, 88
0, 98

Sau khi chn bin mi X
(1)
lp tip c kt qu ti u X
*
= (0,5;1). Phng php
kt thc bc th 2. Nu p dng phng php hng dc nht phi mt 20 bc
mi t im ti u.

5.5.7. Gii bi ton ti u phi tuyn khng rng buc bng phng php
khng dng o hm
Cc bi ton dng c in c gii bng cch tm o hm v xc nh cc
im dng ch ph hp vi nhng dng bi ton c th hm ho c. Ngoi ra cn
chng minh s tn ti nghim v cc o hm tng ng.
Trong cc bi ton k thut nhng iu kin ny rt kh tha mn, bi vy ngi
ta tm nghim ca bi ton bng cc phng php d tm ti u. Cc phng php loi
ny p dng cho c bi ton c rng buc v khng rng buc.
Phng php ph bin c p dng l phng php d tm trc tip theo bc.
Trong ti liu ny s trnh by mt s phng php thng c p dng trong lnh
vc pht trin ngun nc.
5.5.7.1. Ph- ng php d tm theo h- ng ca Hooke-Jeeves
Phng php Hooke - Jeeves c th gi l phng php di chuyn theo hng c
th n im cc tr. S d tm theo hng c th c thc hin theo tng to ca
vc t X.
1. Bi ton: Tm gi tr ca vc t X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) sao cho:
F(X) min vi X R
n


2. Cch gii
Gii bi ton trn theo cc bc thc hin nh sau:
(1) La chn to ban u lm im xut pht:

( )
0 1 0 0
0 2 n
x x , x , ..., x = (5-81)
Tng ng ta c:

( ) ( )
0 1 0 0
0 2 n
F x F x , x , ..., x = (5-82)
(2) Chn mt bin bt k trong vc t X v d tm hng c th cho bin y. Ta
bt u bin u tin
1
x , cc bin khc c gi nguyn gi tr ban u. Gi s ta tng
gi tr ca
1
x mt gi tr Dx
1
.
Ta c:
1 0
1 1 1
x x x = + D (5-83)
(3) Tnh gi tr
0 0 0
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = + D
v tnh
0
1 1
F F F(X ) D = - (5-84)
(4) Kim tra iu kin:
- Nu
1
F 0 D < chng t hng di chuyn l ng ta c nh im vi
1
x v
d sang bin khc.
Tc l ly
1 0
1 1 1
x x x = + D (5-85)
- Nu
1
F 0 D hng d ny khng v c min (khng t). Ta phi d theo
hng ngc li (li) ly:
1 0
1 1 1
x x x = - D
Tip tc tnh
0 0 0
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = - D v
0
1 1
F F F(X ) D = -
Nu
1
F 0
D < , chng t hng d tm ng, ta c nh im v d tm cho

bin tip theo, tc l:

1 0
1 1 1
x x x = - D (5-86)
Nu
1
F 0
D , hng d tm khng t, tc l ri vo tnh trng "tin thoi lng

nan". Trong trng hp ny ta gi nguyn bin x
1
, tc l "khng tin cng khng li":

1 0
1 1
x x = (5-87)
v d sang bin tip theo.

Bt u
(1) Chn im ban
u X
0
. Tnh F
0
(X
0
)

(2) Tnh
) ,....., 2 , 1 ; (
1
n k x F
k
=

k x x k
i
x x
i k k
= = = i vi i vi
0 1
;

0 f F D

I =I+1
i
x
0
i
x
1
i
x - =
x
Tnh F1 v DF1

DF1< 0
Fk = F
1
; DF
G
= F
k
F
0

Sai
ng
ng
Sai
ng
Sai
i=1

i i i
x x x D + =
0 1
0 1
F F F - = D

I > N
DF
G
< 0
|DF
G
|< e
2 /
i
x
i
x D =
1
i
x
0
i
x =
0
i
x
1
i
x =
Sai
Sai
kt thc

Hnh 5-9: S tnh d tm ti u theo phng php Hooke-Jeeves


(5) D tm theo hng c th ca bin th hai: Trong khi bin th nht c
c nh theo mt trong cc biu thc (5-85)(5-87). Gi s chn mt gia lng
2
x D
cho bin th hai ta c:
Chn
1 0
2 2 2
x x x = + D v tnh
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x , x ) ... = + D
(6) Tnh:
2 2 1
F F F D = -
Nu DF
2
< 0. Ta c hng di chuyn t yu cu, ta c nh ta
2
x v d tm
cho bin tip theo, tc l chn:
1 0
2 2 2
x x x = + D (5-88)
DF
2
0. Hng d tm khng t phi li.
Ta chn
1 0
2 2 2
x x x = D - v tnh
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x , x ) ... = D -
Tnh
'
2 2 1
F F F D = -
- Nu
2
F 0
D < . Hng d tm t yu cu v c nh im chn:

1 0
2 2 2
x x x = - D (5-89)
Tip tc d tm cho bin tip theo.
- Trong trng hp ngc li, tng t nh i vi bin th nht, ta gi gi tr
ca bin th hai, tc l:

1 0
2 2
x x = (5-90)
v chuyn sang d tm cho bin sau.
(7) Tip tc lm nh cc bc trn dy cho n cui cng l x
n
. Ta kt thc ln
lp th nht.
(8) Sau khi kt thc ln lp th nht, tnh gi tr F(X
1
), vi:

1 1 1 1
1 2 n
X (x , x ,..., x ) = (5-91)
(9) Kim tra iu kin :

1 0
F F(X ) F(X ) D = - < 0 (5-92)
Nu (5-92) khng tho mn, hng d tm khng tha mn, chuyn sang
bc (10).
Nu (5-92) tha mn, s d tm theo hng ny (xu th chung i vi tt c
cc tham bin) t yu cu. Kim tra thm iu kin:
Nu F D e (5-93)
Trong e l s dng cho trc tu (sai s ca kt qu d tm im cc tr)
- Nu (5-93) tha mn, kt thc cng vic d tm v nghim ti u ca bi ton l:

8 * *
1 2 n
..., X (x , x x ) = (5-94)
- Nu F D > e, c ngha l hng di chuyn l ng nhng cha n im cc
tiu vi sai s cho trc e.
Ta tip tc d tm tip, nhng to ban u cho ln d tm tip theo l im kt
thc i vi ln d tm trc, tc l: X
0
= X
1
, ng thi bc d tm c chn nh ln
d tm trc , tc l:
ly
2 1
i i
x x D = D i 1, n =
(10) Trong trng hp DF 0, chng t hng d tm khng t do vt qu
im c gi tr min. Kim tra iu kin:

k
i 1
x D e vi mi i (5-95)
vi
1
e l sai s cho trc i vi cc Dx
i
vi mi i.
Nu (5-95) tha mn, kt thc d tm v nghim ca bi ton.
Trong trng hp ngc li cn chia nh bc d tm bng cch chn :

2 1
i i
1
x x
2
D = D
v tip tc quay li t bc u tin, cho n khi t c cc iu kin (5-93) v (5-95).
5.5.7.2. Ph- ng php d tm theo mu
1. Bi ton:
Tm gi tr ca vc t X = (x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) sao cho:
F(X) min vi X R
n

2. Cch gii:
Gii bi ton trn theo cc bc thc hin cho bc th k (bt u t k =0):
Cng on I: Tm thm d bc 1
c chia thnh cc bc nh nh sau:
Bc 1: La chn to ban u lm im xut pht:

(k) (k) ( k) (k)
1 2 n
X (x , x ,..., x ) = (5-96)
(Nu bt u t im xut pht k =0 th to u l:
(0) (0) (0) (0)
1 2 n
X (x , x ,..., x ) = )
Tng ng ta c:

(k) (k) ( k) (k)
1 2 n
F(X ) F(x , x , ..., x ) = (5-97)
Bc 2: Chn mt bin bt k trong vc t X v d tm hng c th cho bin y. Ta
bt u bin u tin
1
x , cc bin khc c gi nguyn gi tr ban u. Gi s ta tng
gi tr ca
1
x mt gi tr
1
x D .
Ta c:
(k 1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x
+
+ = D (5-98)
Bc 3: Tnh gi tr
(k) (k) (k)
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = + D
v tnh
( k)
1 1
F F F(X ) D = - (5-99)
Bc 4: Kim tra iu kin:
- Nu
1
F 0 D < chng t hng di chuyn l ng ta c nh im vi
1
x v d
sang bin khc.
Tc l ly
(k 1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x
+
+ = D (5-100)
- Nu
1
F 0 D hng d ny khng v c min (khng t). Ta phi d theo
hng ngc li (li) ly:
(k 1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x
+
- = D
Tip tc tnh
(k) (k) (k)
1 1 1 2 n
F F(x x , x ..., x ) = + D v
' ( k)
1 1
F F F(X ) D = -
Nu
'
1
F 0 D < , chng t hng d tm ng, ta c nh im v d tm cho
bin tip theo, tc l:

(k+1) (k)
1 1 1
x x x = - D (5-101)
Nu
'
1
F 0 D , hng d tm khng t, tc l ri vo tnh trng "tin thoi lng
nan". Trong trng hp ny ta gi nguyn bin x
1

(k+1) (k)
1 1
x x = (5-102)
Bc 5: D tm theo hng c th ca bin th hai: Trong khi bin th nht c
2
x D
Chn
(k+1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x + = D v tnh
(k 1) (k) (k) (k)
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x ..., x )
+
= + D
Bc 6: Tnh:

2 2 1
F F F D = -
Nu DF
2
< 0. Ta c hng di chuyn t yu cu, ta c nh to
2
x v d tm
cho bin tip theo, tc l chn

(k 1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x
+
= + D (5-103)
DF
2
0. Hng d tm khng t phi li.
Ta chn
(k 1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x
+
= - D v tnh
(k 1) (k) (k) ( k)
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(x , x x , x ..., x )
+
= - D
Tnh
'
2 2 1
F F F D = -
- Nu
'
2
F 0 D < . Hng d tm t yu cu v c nh im v chn:

(k 1) (k)
2 2 2
x x x
+
= - D (5-104)
V tip tc d tm cho bin tip theo.

(k 1) (k)
2 2
x x
+
= (5-105)
Bc 7: Tip tc lm nh cc bc trn cho n bin cui cng l x
n
. Ta kt thc ln
lp th nht.
Nh vy trong d tm bc I, ti mi bc dch chuyn theo bin c lp, gi tr
hm mc tiu c so snh vi gi tr ca n ti im trc. Nu hm mc tiu c
ci thin ti mi bc no th gi tr c c thay th bng gi tr mi trong nhng
so snh sau . Nu hm mc tiu khng c ci thin th gi nguyn gi tr c.
Cng on II: Tm theo mu
Sau khi kt thc ln lp cng on I, ta xc nh c gi tr:

( k 1) (k 1) (k 1) (k 1)
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
= (5-106)
bc tm theo mu ta ly:

( k 2) (k 1) (b)
2
X mX X
+ +
= - X
(k+2)
= mX
(k+1)
- X
(b)
(5-107)

Tc l:
x
i
(k+2)
= m x
i
(k+1)
- x
i
(b)
(5-108)
D theo mu s c to mi l:

( k 2) (k 2) (k 2) (k 2)
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
= (5-109)
Tnh hm mc tiu:
( k 2) (k 2) (k 2) (k 2)
1 2 n
F(X ) F(x , x ,..., x )
+ + + +
=
Trong :
x
i
(b)
- im c s ln lp u X
(b)
= X
(k)
;
m - s bin d tm cn thit. Th d vi F(x
1
, x
2
) th m=2.
Bc thm d theo mu ch xc nh to mi cho thm d bc 2. Vic kt
lun thm d theo mu c thnh cng hay khng ch c kt lun sau khi thc hin
thm d bc 2.
Cng on III: Thm d bc 2
Bc 1: Thm d bc 2 c thc hin theo cc bc tng t nh thm d bc
1, im xut pht l im thm d theo mu X
k+2
. Thm d bc 2 c thc hin
n bin th n s c to mi:

( k 3) ( k 3) (k 3) (k 3)
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
= (5-110)
V tnh:
( k 3) (k 3) (k 3) (k 3)
1 2 n
F(X ) F(x , x , ..., x )
+ + + +
=
Bc 2: Kim tra s thnh cng ca thm d theo mu:
- Nu F(X
(k+3)
) F(X
(k+1)
), th thm d theo mu c coi l kt qu. Khi im
c s l:
X
(b)
= X
(k+1)
(5-111)
Tip tc thm thm d theo mu (quay loi Cng on II) nhng im xut pht
l X
(k+3)
, ly:
X
(k+4)
= mk
(k+3)
- X
(b)
= mX
(k+3)
- X
(k+1)

Tc l:
x
i
(k+4)
= m x
i
(k+3)
- x
i
(b)
= m x
i
(k+3)
- x
i
(k+1)
(5-112)
- Nu F(X
(k+3)
) > F(X
(k+1)
), th thm d theo mu c coi l tht bi. Khi quay li
thm d bc 1 (quay li Cng on I) sao cho xc nh hng mi c hiu qu.
Nhng im xut pht by gi l im xut pht ca thm d bc 2 ca ln tht bi
ny (X
(k+2)
).
Nu tip tc thm d bc 1 lin tip khng cho hng mi thnh cng s phi
gim gi tr ca Dx
i
cho n khi hoc cho hng mi c hiu qu, hoc khi a
i
nh hn
mt gi tr cho php.

Bt u
(1) Chn im c s
X
b
= X
0
. Tnh F(X
b
)

(2) Tm kim thm
d bc 1 t im
c s X
b
. Tnh F(X)

F(X) > F(X
b
)

(3) Chn dim c s mi
F(X
b
+ = F(X)
(4) Tm theo mu
(5) Tm kim thm d
bc II

F(X) > F(X
b
) trong (3)

(6)
Gia s Dx
i
e
(7)
Gim s gia Dx
i

Kt
thc
Sai
ng
ng Sai
ng
Sai

Hnh 5-10a: S thut ton d tm trc tip - D theo mu

Vic gim gi tr hm F(X) khi cc gi tr Dx
i
kh b chnh l nghim ca
bi ton.
Thut ton ca php lp ny c trnh by s hnh 5-10a.
Phng php ny khc vi phng php d tm Hooke-Jeeves nh sau: Sau khi
d tm theo bin s hon thnh i vi tt c cc bin s, phng php Hooke-
Jeeves s chn to di chuyn ti lm to xut pht cho ln d tm tip theo,
cn phng php d tm theo mu li tm im xut pht mi kim tra hng di

chuyn tip theo. Vi cch lm ny, phng php d tm theo mu s hn ch c
tnh trng khng thot ra c cc cc tr a phng.
Ni chung cc phng php khng dng o hm khc phc c cc trng
hp m hm mc tiu khng c trnh by di dng hm tng, nhng c nhc
im l d b ri vo cc cc tr a phng v do khng tm c ng nghim ca
bi ton. khc phc ngi ta thc hin nhiu ln d tm vi ta ban u c
chn khc nhau.
3. V d minh ha
Bi ton:
Tm gi tr ca vc t X = (x
1
, x
2
) sao cho:
F(X) =
2 2
1 2
1
max
(x 1) x

+ +

Gii:
Gii bi ton trn theo cc bc thc hin cho bc th k (bt u t k =0):
Cng on I: Tm thm d bc 1
Bc 1: La chn to ban u lm im xut pht:

0
X (2, 0;2,8) = Chn X (0, 6;0, 84) D =
Tnh:
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Bc 2: Chn mt bin bt k trong vc t X v d tm hng c th cho bin y. Ta
bt u bin u tin x
1
. Gi s ta tng gi tr Dx
1
.
- Ta c :
(1) (0)
1 1 1
x x x = + D = 2,0 +0,6 = 2,6
- Tnh gi tr
(0) (0)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = + D = F(2, 6 , 2, 8) = 0,048 <
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Hng di chuyn khng t.
ly:
(1) (0)
1 1 1
x x x = - D = 2,0 - 0,60 = 1,4
- Tnh gi tr
(0) (0)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = - D = F(1, 4 , 2, 8) = 0,073 >
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Hng di chuyn t yu cu.
Bc 3: D sang bin th 2:
- Ta c :
(1) (0)
2 2 2
x x x = + D = 2,8 +0,84 = 3,64
- Tnh gi tr
(1) (0)
1 1 2 2
F F(x ;x x ) = + D = F(1, 4 ;3, 64)= 0,052 <
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
ly:
(1) (0)
2 2 2
x x x = - D = 2,8 - 0,84 = 1,96
- Tnh gi tr
(0) (1)
1 2 2 1
F F(x x , x ) = - D = F(1, 4 ;1, 94)= 0,104 >
0
F(X ) 0, 059 =
Nh vy, tm thm d bc 1 t v ly
(1)
X (1, 4; 1, 94) =
Cng on II: Tm theo mu
Tnh theo mu ta ly:
x
i
(k+2)
= m x
i
(k+1)
- x
i
(b)

Ta c: x
i
(2)
= 2x
i
(1)
-x
i
(0)
tm c x
1
(2)
= 2(1,4)-2 = 0,8; x
2
(2)
= 2(1,96)-2,8 = 1,12
D theo mu s c to mi l:
(2) (2) (2)
1 2
, ) x (x x = = (0,8; 1,12)
Tnh hm mc tiu:
(2) (2) (2)
1 2
) , ) F(X F(x x = = 0,22
Cng on III: Thm d bc 2
Thm d bc 2 c thc hin theo cc bc tng t nh thm d bc 1,
im xut pht l im thm d theo mu X
(2)
. Thm d bc 2 c thc hin n
bin th n s c ta mi:
- Ta c :
(3) (2)
1 1 1
x x x D = = 0,8 +0,6 = 1,4
- Tnh gi tr
(3) (2)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = + D = F(1, 4; 1,12) = 0,14 <
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =
ly:
(3) (2)
1 1 1
x x x = - D = 0,8 - 0,60 = 0,2
- Tnh gi tr
(3) (2)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = - D =F(0, 2 ,1,12) =0,38>
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =

D sang bin th 2:
- Ta c :
(3) (2)
2 2 2
x x x = + D = 1,12 +0,84 = 1,96
- Tnh gi tr
(3) (2)
1 1 2 2
F F(x ;x x ) = + D = F(0, 2 ;1, 96) = 0,19 <
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =
ly:
(3) (2)
2 2 2
x x x = - D = 1,12 - 0,84 = 0,28
- Tnh gi tr
(2) (3)
1 2 2 1
F F(x x , x ) = - D = F(0, 2 ; 0, 28)= 0,104 >
2
F(X ) 0, 22 =
Nh vy, tm thm d bc 2 t v ly
(3)
X (0, 2; 0, 28) =
V tnh:
(3) 3 3
1 2
) , x F(X F(x ) F(0, 2; 0, 28) 0, 67 = = =
Kim tra s thnh cng ca thm d theo mu:
Ta c: F(X(
3)
) = 0,67 > F(X
(1)
) = 0,105. Vic thm d theo mu c kt qu.
im c s mi by gi l: X
(b)
= X
(1)
= (1,4; 1,96)
Tip tc thm d theo mu vi im xut pht l X
(3)
, ly:
X
(4)
= mX
(3)
- X
(1)
= mX
(3)
- X
(1)

Tc l:
x
1
(4)
= 2 (0,2)-1,4 = -1; x
2
(4)
= 2(0,28)-1,96 = -1,4
Tnh F(X
(4)
) =F (-1; -1,4) = 0,51
Tm thm d bc 2 vi im xut pht l X
(4)
= (-1; -1,4) v F(X
(4)
) = 0,51
- Tnh gi tr
(4) (4)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = + D = F( 1, 4; 1, 4) - - = 0,43 <
4
F(X ) 0, 51 =
ly:
(5) (4)
1 1 1
x x x = - D = -1 - 0,60 =-1,6
- Tnh gi tr
(4) (4)
1 1 1 2
F F(x x , x ) = - D = ; F( 1, 6 1, 4) - - =0,43<
4
F(X ) 0, 51 =
Hng di chuyn khng t yu cu. Ly x
1
(5)
= -1.

Hnh 5-10b: Minh ha qu trnh d tm theo mu theo v d

- Ta c:
(5) (4)
1 1 1
x x x = + D = -1 +0,6 = -0,4
D sang bin th 2:
- Ta c:
(5) (4)
2 2 2
x x x = + D = -1,4 +0,84 = -0,56
- Tnh gi tr
(5) (4) 4
1 1 2 2
) 0, 51 F F(x ; x x ) F( 1; 0, 56) 3,18 F(X = = + D = - - = >
Ta c: F(X(
5)
) = 3,18 > F(X
(3)
) = 0,6. Vic thm d theo mu c kt qu. im
c s mi by gi l:
X
(b)
= X
(3)
= (0,2 ; 0,28)
Tip tc tm theo mu vi im xut pht X
(5)
v im c s X
(b)
= X
(3)

-1 -2 -3 -0 1 2 3
1
2
3
-1
-2
-3
x
1
x
2
x
(0)
x
(1)
x
(3)
x
(4)
x
(5)
im c s: x
(0)
, x
(3)
, x
(5)

i vi cc bc d tm
C kt qu
Tht bi
i vi cc bc d tm theo mu
C Kt qu
Tht bi

x
1
(6)
= 2( -1) - 0,2 = -2,2; x
2
(6)
= 2.(-0,56) - 0,28 = -1,5.
Tm c F(X
(6)
) = F(-2,2; -1,4) = 0,29
Tip tc thm d bc 2 so snh vi F(X
(6)
).
x
1
(7)
= -2,2 +0,6 = -1,6 F(-1,6; - 1,4) = 0,43 > F(X
(6)
) = 0,29
Bc thm d c kt qu.
x
2
(7)
= -1,4 + 0,84 = -0,56 F(-1,6; - 0,56) = 1,49 > F(X
(6)
) = 0,29
V F(X
(7)
) = F(-1,6; - 0,56) = 1,49 < F(X(
5)
) = 3,18 nn mc d thm d bc 2
c kt qu nhng kt qu tm mu c coi l khng thnh cng.
Do vy, ta phi d tm bc 1 vi im xut pht l X
(5)
. Tip tc lm nh vy
cho n khi tm kim hiu qu. i vi v d ny tm c ti u l:
X
*
= (-1,0 ; 0,0) v F(X
*
) = .

5.5.8. Bi ton ti u c rng buc
Cc bi ton ti u c rng buc c gi l cc bi ton cc tr vng. C hai
loi loi rng buc: rng buc ng thc v rng buc bt ng thc.
5.5.8.1. Bi ton rng buc ng thc
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton ti u vi rng buc ng thc c dng:
F(X) min (5-113)
Rng buc: g
j
(X) = b
j
j 1, m = (5-114)
Vi: X = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n
) R
n
(5-115)
Ph- ng php gii
gii bi ton loi ny ngi ta tm cch a bi ton ti u v loi khng rng
buc bng phng php hm pht, hoc phng php nhn t Lagrange.
Trong ti liu ny gii thiu phng php nhn t Lagrange (L).
Thit lp hm s Lagrange (L), c dng:

m
j j j
j 1
L(X, ) F(X) g (X) b
=
l = + l -

(5-116)
trong : L(X, l) l hm Lagrange; l l vc t nhn t Lagrange:
l = (l
1
, l
2
,...,l
j
,...,l
m
)
Ngi ta chng minh c rng nghim ti u ca hm L (X, l) cng l nghim
ti u ca hm F(X) vi rng buc (5-117), tc l:
min( max) L (X, l) = min(max) F (X) (5-117)
Nh vy, vi vic thit lp hm Lagrange bi ton rng buc ng thc c a
v bi ton khng rng buc. Tuy nhin, s bin ca bi ton tng thm m bin l
j
.
Bng cch lp hm Lagrange, a bi ton rng buc ng thc v dng bi
ton ti u c in khng rng buc. n y, ta c th p dng cc cch gii ca bi
ton phi tuyn khng c rng buc cho bi ton ny.
Cc im dng ca hm L (X, l) l:

m
j j j
j 1
i i i
L F
(G (X) b )
x x x
=

= + l -

(5-118)

m
j
j
j 1
i i i
G (X)
L F
0 i 1, n
x x x
=

= + l = =

(5-119)
v
m
j
j j
j 1
K K
L
(G (X) b ) 0
=
l
= - =
l l

K K
K
L
(G (X) b ) K 1, m
= - =
l
(5-120)
v vi j K c
J
K
0
l
=
l

Nh vy ta phi gii h n + m phng trnh s tm ra n + m nghim ca x
i
v l
j
.

5.5.8.2. Bi ton rng buc bt ng thc
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton ti u vi rng buc bt ng thc c vit di dng:
F(X) min (5-121)
vi G
j
(X) b
j
J 1, m = (5-122)
Ch :

j
(X) b
j
; j=1, 2,..., m c th a v dng:
g
j
(X) - b
j
; j = 1, 2,..., m
Ph- ng php gii
Trong trng hp rng buc l bt ng thc: Ngi ta cng a bi ton c rng
buc v bi ton khng rng buc. C hai cch a bi ton rng buc bt ng thc
v bi ton khng rng buc.
1. Bng cch a thm vo v phi mt bin ph rng buc bt ng thc tr
thnh rng buc ng thc:
G
j
(X) + x
j
= b
j
J 1, m = (5-123)
vi x
j
0
Khi hm Lagrange c dng (5-124). Nh vy ta a v dng bi ton rng
buc ng thc, c gii tng t nh trng hp (5.5.7.1):

m
L(X, ) F(X) (G (X) b x )
j j j j
j 1
l = + l - +
=
(5-124)
Hay l:
L(X, l )= L(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
; l
1
, l
2
,..., l
j
,..., l
m
; x
n+1
, x
n+2
,...,x
n+m
) (5-125)
trong cc gi tr ca l = (l
1
, l
2
,..., l
j
,..., l
m
) v ca X
j
= (x
n+1
,..., x
n+j
,..., x
n+m
) l cc
bin s.
Bi ton khng rng buc dng (5-125) by gi c s bin tng ln v l
n+2m bin s. Nh vy, thay v gii bi ton (5-121) vi c n bin s vi rng buc
(5-122) ta c bi ton khng rng buc (5-124) vi n+2m bin s. Sau khi a bi ton
ti u v dng khng c rng buc ta c th d dng mt trong nhng phng php
gii trnh by trn i vi bi ton ti u khng c rng buc.
2. Khng thit lp hm L, bi ton ti u c gii vi hm F(X) tng t nh
trng hp khng c rng buc. Sau cc nghim tm c s c kim tra xem c
tho mn cc rng buc hay khng. Nhng nghim khng tho mn cc rng buc s
b loi.
5.5.8.3. Bi ton c rng buc ng thc v bt ng thc
Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton ti u c rng buc ng thc v rng buc bt ng thc c vit di
dng:
F(X) min (5-126)
vi G
j
(X) b
j
J 1, m = (5-127)
v h
k
(X) = 0

Ch :
j
(X) b
j
; j =1, 2,..., m c th a v dng:
g
j
(X) - b
j
; j =1, 2,..., m
Ph- ng php gii
Trong trng hp ny thit lp hm Lagrange c dng:

m mk
j j j j k k
j 1 k 1
L(X, , ) F(X) g (X) b x h (X)
= =
l m = + l - + + m

(5-128)
Vi m = (m
1
, m
2
,..., m
mk
) l nhn t Lagrange m rng.
i vi bi ton loi ny hm Lagrange m rng c s bin l n+2m+m
k
. Cch
gii bi ton cng c thc hin tng t nh cc trng hp trn.
Cc bi ton ti u ho dng c in c th c gii vi nhiu phng php
khc nhau.

5.6. Quy hoch ng
5.6.1. Khi nim chung
Phng php quy hoch ng da trn nguyn l ca Bellman, c pht biu
tm tt nh sau:
Mt th hin ti u c c tnh l, bt lun trng thi ban u v nhng quyt
nh ban u nh th no, nhng quyt nh tip theo phi to thnh mt th hin ti
u i vi trng thi ban u, do kt qu ca nhng quyt nh u tin to nn.
Thc cht ca nguyn l ny l, thit lp mt chin lc ti u nhiu giai on,
sao cho li gii mi giai on nhn c theo li ch tng cng c li nht tnh n
cui giai on ang xt. l c s ca vic thit lp ca phng trnh truy hi, th
hin chui cc bi ton ti u nhiu giai on.

Phng php quy hoch ng cho php a bi ton ti u nhiu bin v chui
cc bi ton ti u mt bin s. Phng php quy hoch ng l phng php c p
dng nhiu trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc.
Khi p dng phng php quy hoch ng i vi cc bi ton thc t cn ch
iu kin sau: Hm mc tiu ca bi ton phi l hm tch c, c vit di
dng tng ca cc hm thnh phn, v mi hm thnh phn ch cha mt bin c lp,
tc l:

n
1 2 n j
j 1
Z(x , x ..., x ) z(x )
=
=

(5-129)
Hoc c th vit di dng khai trin:

1 1 2 2 j j n n
Z z (x ) z (x ) ... z (x ) ... z (x ) = + + + + + (5-130)

5.6.2. Phng php quy hoch ng vi bi ton phn b ti nguyn
5.6.2.1. Bi ton
Gi s c lng ti nguyn X
T
c phn b cho n i tng s dng, gi thit
rng hm mc tiu c dng tch c:

1 1 2 2 j j n n
Z z (x ) z (x ) ... z (x ) ... z (x ) = + + + + + (5-131)
tc l hm mc tiu l tng cc hm m trong ch cha mt bin s. Trong (5-131),
cc gi tr
1 2 n
x , x ..., x l cc ti nguyn ca mi i tng nhn c theo mt phng
n phn phi no tho mn iu kin sau:

T
1 2 j n
X x x ... x ... x = + + + + + (5- 132)
Cn xc nh chin lc phn b ti nguyn cho cc i tng s dng sao cho
hm mc tiu (5-131) t gi tr ln nht, tc l:

n
i j
T
j 1
Z Z (x )
X
J max
max
=
= =

(5-133)

5.6.2.2. Ph- ng gip gii ca Bellman
Thut ton ti u c gii theo hai hai bc: Bc tnh xui nhm xc nh cc
th hin ti u c iu kin, bc tnh ngc c thc hin tm nghim ti u i
vi cc bin s.
a. B- c tnh xui
Bellman a ra nguyn l ti u nhiu giai on. u tin xem xt chin lc
phn b ti u cho hai i tng sau l 3, 4 v.v... n n i tng mi mt giai
on, chin lc ti u cho i tng ang xt c kt hp vi chin lc ti u cc
giai on trc.
Trc tin xem xt s phn chia ti nguyn gia hai i tng u tin.
Hai i tng th nht v th hai s ly cc gi tr sao cho:

2 2 1 1
F z (x ) z (x ) = + max (5-134)
Hoc l:

T
2 2 2 2 1 1
2
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (x ))
max
x
= + (5-135)
Vi iu kin tng s ti nguyn phn cho hai i tng u tin khng c
vt qu gi tr
T
2
X , tc l:

T T
1 2 2
X x x X + = (5-136)
Trong :
T
2
X - tng ti nguyn phn cho hai i tng u tin;
T
X l tng s ti
nguyn.
V
T
1 2 2
x X x = - nn (5-135) c vit di dng:

T T
2 2 2 2 1 2 2
2
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X x ))
max
x
- = + (5-137)
Gii phng trnh (5-137) tm nghim ti u.
Ta lp bng 5-6 nh sau:
- Chia
T
2
X thnh m mc c th (trong bng 5-6, m = 4, ct (2)).
- Gi nh m gi tr x
2
tng ng vi cc mc ca
T
2
X , ct (3) bng 5-6.
- Tnh gi tr
T
1 2 2
x X x = - (ct

(4) bng 5-6).
- Tnh gi tr z(x
1
) v z(x
2
): ct (5) v (6).
- Tnh gi tr ca F : ct (7)
- Tng ng vi mi gi tr
T
2
X , tm c gi tr ti u:
T
2 2
Z X ( ) = max F v cc
2
x
*
tng ng.
Gi s ta cng chia
T
2
X thnh 4 mc tnh ton. Khi , s c tng cng 16 gi tr
c th (xem bng 5-6).

Mi mt gi tr c th ca i tng th nht c th phi hp vi 4 gi tr c th
ca i tng th hai sao cho m bo rng buc (5-136). Nh vy, tng ng vi mi
mt mc ca
T
2
X s t hp vi 4 mc ca x
2
v to thnh 4 4 =16 gi tr c th, to
ra 4 gi tr cc i theo biu thc (5-137) tng ng vi mi mc c chia ca i
lng
T
2
X .
Gi s sau khi tnh ton theo bng 5-6 ta tm c 4 trng hp c gi tr ln
nht tng ng vi 4 mc ca gi tr
T
2
X (cc gi tr c du (*).
Nh vy, c th thit lp 4 phng n ti u tng ng vi 4 gi tr x
2
. Cng vi
n l cc gi tr
T
2
X v
T
2 2
z (X ) . Lp c hai quan h ph tr dng bng nh sau:

T
2 2 2
X X (X )
* *
= v
T
2 2
z (X ) (5-138)
Cc gi tr ti u trn y c gi l ti u c iu kin. Cc gi tr hm ti u
l
T
2 2
z (X ) gi l cc gi tr ti u c iu kin ca hm ti u.
Tip tc nh vy tm cc phng n ti u khi phn phi ti nguyn cho i
tng th 2 v th 3. Nhng cc gi tr ti u by gi l tng ca gi tr ti u c iu
kin giai on trc. Tc l:

T T
3 3 3 3 2 3 3
3
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X x ))
max
x
- = + (5-139)
Tip tc thc hin n bc th j ta c cng thc tng qut:

T T
j j j j j 1 j j
j
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X x ))
max
x
-
- = + (5-140)
Vi rng buc:
T T
j j 1 j
X X x
-
= + (5-141)
T (5-141) c:
T T
j 1 j j
X X x
-
- = , do cng thc (5-140) c th vit di dng
khc:

T T
j j j j j 1 j 1
j
Z (X ) (z (x ) z (X ))
max
x
- -
= + (5-140a)
giai on cui khi j = n ta c:

T T
n n n n n n 1 n n
n
Z Z x (X ) (z (x ) z (X ))
max
x
-
= - = + (5-142)
vi
T T T
n n 1 n
X X X x
-
= = + (5-143)
n giai on ny gi tr Z
n
chnh l gi tr cc i ca hm mc tiu Z.
Bng 5-6: Cc gi tr c th cc trng hp phn phi ti nguyn
cho hai i tng u tin
TT
T
2
X

x
2
T
1
X = x
1
=
T
2
X - x
2
z(x
1
) z(x
2
) F=z(x
1
)+z(x
2
)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
x
21

(1)
11
x

z(
(1)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(1)
11
x )

x
22
(1)
12
x z(
(1)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(1)
12
x )
*
x
23

(1)
13
x

z(
(1)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(1)
13
x )

1
T
2(1)
X
x
24
(1)
14
x

z(
(1)
14
x )

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) + z(
(1)
14
x )

x
21

(2)
11
x

z(
(2)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(2)
11
x )

x
22
(2)
12
x z(
(2)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(2)
12
x )
x
23

(2)
13
x

z(
(2)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(2)
13
x )

2
T
2(2)
X
x
24
(2)
14
x

z(
(2)
14
x )

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) + z(
(2)
14
x )
*
x
21

(3)
11
x

z(
(3)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(3)
11
x )

x
22
(3)
12
x z(
(3)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(3)
12
x )
x
23

(3)
13
x

z(
(3)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(3)
13
x )
*
3
T
2(3)
X
x
24
(3)
14
x

z(
(3)
14
x )

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) + z(
(3)
14
x )

x
21

(4)
11
x

z(
(4)
11
x )

z(x
21
) z(x
21
) + z(
(4)
11
x )
*
x
22
(4)
12
x z(
(4)
12
x ) z(x
22
) z(x
22
) + z(
(4)
12
x )
x
23

(4)
13
x

z(
(4)
13
x )

z(x
23
) z(x
23
) + z(
(4)
13
x )

4
T
2(4)
X
x
24
( 4)
14
x

( 4)
14
x

z(x
24
) z(x
24
) +
( 4)
14
x

i vi mt giai on th j bt k vi j = 1, 2, 3,..., j,..., n; vi s bin i ca i
lng
T
j
X , tng t nh giai on th hai ta c 2 cp quan h:

T
j j j
X X (X )
* *
= v
T
j j j
z z (X ) =

(5-144)
n i tng cui cng lp c quan h:

T
n n n
X X (X )
* *
= v
T
n n n
z z (X ) =

(5-145)

Vi nhng cp nh vy s thit lp cc bng (bng 5-7) v lu tr trong my tnh
s dng bc tnh ngc. Trong bng 5-7 s mc chia cho mi mt i tng
khng phi l 4 m ly tng qut bng m.
b. B- c tnh ng- c
Qu trnh tm nghim
1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
* * * *
= c thc hin bc tnh ngc.
Bc tnh ngc rt n gin v khng cn thc hin cc php tnh ti u, m ch s
dng cc quan h thit lp giai on tnh xui ghi trong bng 5-2 suy ra
nghim ca bi ton. Qu trnh tm nghim bc tnh ngc c thc hin theo
trnh t sau:
- giai on cui cng ca bc tnh xui ta tm c gi tr
n
X
*
, theo quan
h lp sn tm c
T
n
X
*
.
- Tip tm c
T T
n-1 n n
X X X
* * *
= -

v tra quan h (5-145):
T
n-1 n 1 n 1
X X (X )
* *
- -
= tm c
n-1
X
*
.
- Tip tc nh vy cho n i tng u tin tm c cc gi tr ti u:

1 2 n
X (x , x , ..., x )
* * * *
= . (5-146)

Bng 5-7: Bng cc quan h ph tr bi ton phn b ti nguyn
Giai on 2 Giai on 3 ... Giai on n
T
2
X
T
2 2
Z (X )
2
X
*

T
3
X
T
3 3
Z (X )
3
X
*
...
T
n
X
T
n n
Z (X )
n
X
*

T
21
X
T
2 21
Z (X )
21
X
*

T
31
X
T
3 31
Z (X )
31
X
*
...
T
n1
X
T
n n1
Z (X )
n1
X
*

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
T
2i
X
T
2 2i
Z (X )
2i
X
*

T
3i
X
T
3 3i
Z (X )
3i
X
*
...
T
ni
X
T
n ni
Z (X )
ni
X
*

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
T
2m
X
T
2 2m
Z (X )
2m
X
*

T
3m
X
T
3 3m
Z (X )
3m
X
*
...
T
nm
X
T
n nm
Z (X )
nm
X
*

V d:
Bi ton: Mt trm thu in cn chy my vi cng sut N
C
= 250 MW. Cn
tm s phn phi cng sut cho 3 t my pht in pht cng sut N
C
sao cho tng
lu lng vo nh my l nh nht.
Gi thit t nht phi c 1 my pht phi lm vic. Tc l, cng sut nh nht ca
trm thu in s l:
N
min
=
3
j
j 1
N 50MW
=
=
(5-147)
Gi cng sut ca cc my pht l N
j
, ta c tng cng sut ln nht ca cc my
pht l:

3
T
j max
j 1
N N
=
=
(5-148)
Quan h gia lu lng v cng sut ca mi t my Q
j
= f
j
(N
j
), vi j = 1, 2,...,
n, cho trong bng (5-8).

Bng 5-8: Quan h cng sut lu lng ca cc t my
Quan h lu lng Q (m
3
/s) vi cng sut ca cc t my (10
3
kW)
C. sut
T
my
0 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lu 1 0 20 25 30 35 40 45
lng 2 0 18 23 30 37 44 51
(m
3
/s) 3 0 21 22 24 28 35 50

Cng sut ti a ca mi my l 100 MW, do c:
- Cng sut ti a ca hai t my l 200 MW
- Cng sut ti a ca 3 t my l
max
T
N = 300 MW.
Hm mc tiu theo bi ton t ra c vit di dng sau:
Q
n
=
3
j j
j 1
Q (N ) min
=

(5-149)
Vi rng buc l:
max
3
T
j
j 1
50MW N N
=

(5-150)
Cch gii:
B- c tnh xui:
Trc tin ta xt phn phi cng sut cho hai t my.
Hm mc tiu i vi 2 t my s l:

T T
2 2 2 2 1 2 2
2
Q N Q N Q N N
max
N
= + - ( ) ( ( ) ( )) (5-151)

Vi
T
2 2 1
N N N - = (5-152)
Trong :
N
1
, N
2
tng ng l cng sut ca t my 1 v t my 2;
Q
1
(N
1
) v Q
2
(N
2
) l lu lng ca t my 1 v 2 tng ng vi cng sut N
1
, N
2
;
T
2
N l tng cng sut ca hai t my u tin, phi tha mn rng buc:

T
2
50MW N 200M (5-153)
Gi s ta chia cng sut
T
2
N thnh cc mc vi bc chia l 10MW. Lp bng
phng n phn phi cng sut v tnh lu lng tng cng ca hai t my u tin
(bng 5-9).
T kt qu tnh ton bng 5-9 c th chn ra cc phng n ti u theo cc cp
chia ca c trng
T
2
N v lp c quan h gia 3 i lng
T
2
N , N
2
v
T T
2 2
Q (N ) (bng
5-10). Ta xem xt cc phng n phn phi cng sut cho 3 t my. Tng lu lng
ca 3 t my c xc nh nh phng trnh dng truy hi:

T T
3 3 3 3 2 3 3
3
Q N Q N Q N N
max
N
= + - ( ) ( ( ) ( )) (5-154)
gim khi lng tnh ton (v y l v d minh ha) ta chn bc tnh ton
h = 50MW.
Tng cng sut 3 t my s nm trong khong:
50MW
T
3
N 300 MW
Theo phng trnh (5-154) ta lp bng (5-11) v cc phng n phn phi cng
sut cho 3 t my, trong cng sut ca 2 t my u tin l cc phng n ti u
khi xem xt cc phng n phn phi cng sut gia 2 t my .
T kt qu tnh ton bng (5-11) c th chn c cc phng n ti u c
tng lu lng qua cc t my l nh nht. Kt qu ghi trong bng (5-12), l kt qu
cui cng ca qu trnh tnh ton. Gi tr ti u tng ng vi cc mc quyt nh v
cng sut m 3 t my phi m nhim.
Nu ta quyt nh 3 t my phi chy my vi cng sut tng cng l 250 MW,
th phng n ti u tng ng s l phng n 5 trong bng (5-11).
B- c tnh ng- c:
Theo thut ton ngc tm c li gii ca bi ton ghi bng (5-13).
Bng 5-9: Cc phng n phn phi cng sut cho hai t my u tin
TT
T
2
N
N2
N1 =
T
2
N -N
2 Q
1
(N1) Q
2
(N2) F = Q
1
(N
1
)+Q
2
(N
2
)
1 200 100 100 45 51 96
2 190 90 100 45 44 89
3 - 100 90 40 51 91
4 180 80 100 45 37 82
5 - 100 80 35 51 86
6 170 70 100 45 30 75
7 - 100 70 30 51 81
8 160 60 100 45 23 68
9 - 100 60 25 51 76
10 - 80 80 35 37 72
11 - 90 70 30 44 74
12 - 70 90 40 30 70
13 150 50 100 45 18 63
14 - 100 50 20 51 71
15 - 60 90 40 23 63
16 - 90 60 25 44 69
17 - 80 70 30 37 67
18 - 70 80 35 30 65
19 140 50 90 40 18 58
20 - 90 50 20 44 64
21 - 60 80 35 23 58
22 - 80 60 25 37 62
23 - 70 70 30 30 60
24 130 50 80 35 18 53
25 - 80 50 20 37 57
26 - 60 70 30 23 53
27 - 70 60 25 37 62
28 120 50 70 30 18 48
29 - 70 50 20 30 50
30 - 60 60 25 23 48
31 110 50 60 25 18 43
32 - 60 50 20 23 43
33 100 0 100 45 0 45
34 - 100 0 0 51 51

TT
T
2
N
N2
N1 =
T
2
N -N
2 Q
1
(N1) Q
2
(N2) F = Q
1
(N
1
)+Q
2
(N
2
)
35 - 50 50 20 18 38
36 90 0 90 40 0 40
37 - 90 0 0 44 44
38 80 0 80 35 0 35
39 - 80 0 0 37 37
40 70 70 0 0 30 30
41 - 0 70 30 0 30
42 60 0 60 25 0 25
43 - 60 0 0 23 23
44 50 0 50 20 0 20
45 - 50 0 0 18 18

Bng 5-10: Cc phng n phn phi ti u c iu kin cho hai t my u tin
TT
T
2
N
N2
T
2
Q =max F
TT
T
2
N
N2
T
2
Q =max F
1 200 100 96 12 120 50 48
2 190 90 89 13 120 60 48
3 180 80 82 14 110 50 43
4 170 70 75 15 110 60 43
5 160 60 68 16 100 50 38
6 150 50 63 17 90 0 40
7 150 60 63 18 80 0 35
8 140 50 58 19 70 70 30
9 140 60 58 20 70 0 30
10 130 50 53 21 60 60 23
11 130 60 53 22 50 50 18

Bng 5-11: Cc phng n phn phi cng sut cho 3 t my
TT
T
3
N
N
3

T T
2 3 3
N N N = -

T
2 2
Q (N )
Q
2
(N
3
)
T
2 2 3 3
F Q (N ) Q (N ) = +
1 50 0 50 18 0 18
2 100 50 50 18 21 39
3 150 50 100 38 21 59
4 - 100 50 18 50 68
5 - 0 150 63 0 63
6 200 50 150 63 21 84
7 - 100 100 38 50 88
8 - 0 200 96 0 96
9 250 50 200 96 21 117
10 - 100 150 63 50 113
11 300 100 200 96 50 146

Bng 5-12: Cc phng n phn phi ti u c iu kin cho hai t my u tin
TT
T
3
N
N
3

T
3
Q = max F
TT
T
3
N
N
3

T
3
Q = max F
1 50 0 18 4 200 50 84
2 100 50 39 5 250 100 113
3 150 50 59 6 300 100 146

Bng 5-13: Kt qu phn phi cng sut vi cng sut tng l 250 MW
T my 1 2 3
Cng sut (MW) 100 50 100
Lu lng (m
3
/s) 45 18 50

5.6.3. Phng php quy hoch ng tm qu o hoc trng thi ti u
Phng php quy hoch ng vi bi ton trng thi thng c p dng trong
mt s bi ton ti u c cha bin thay i theo thi gian. Do , loi bi ton ny rt
c lu tm.
Bi ton loi ny l bi ton tm qu o ti u. Thut ng qu o c hiu
theo hai ngha: khng gian v thi gian.

V d 1: Cn xy dng mt ng dy ti in ni 2 thnh ph A v B. Tm
tuyn xy dng ng dy sao cho chi xy dng l nh nht. Khi tuyn xy dng
ng dy s l qu o theo ngha khng gian.
V d 2: Xc nh qu trnh lu lng tho qua nh my thy in trong thi
gian ma kit sao cho tng nng in trong thi gian vn hnh l ln nht. S thay i
lu lng qua nh my lm thay i mc nc h cha. Qu trnh thay i mc nc
h theo thi gian c coi l qu o theo thi gian.
Cc bin m t qu o (theo thi gian hoc khng gian) gi l bin trng thi.
Bi ton quy hoch ng loi ny gi l bi ton quy hoch ng vi bin trng thi.
Nguyn l c bn ca bi ton ti u trng thi cng tng t nh bi ton phn
b ti nguyn. Bi ton ti u cng c thc hin theo hai bc: bc tnh xui v
bc tnh ngc. bc tnh xui, thut ton c thc hin nhm tm ra chui cc
nghim ti u c iu kin, sau , thut ton ngc cho php tm trng thi (qu o)
ti u ca c qu trnh.
5.6.3.1. Pht biu bi ton
Bi ton vi bin trng thi l thi gian c t ra nh sau:
Gi s ta phi a trng thi ca h thng t thi im ban u t
0
n thi im
cui t
n
(hnh 5-11). Gi X
0
l trng thi ban u ca i tng; x
n,i
l trng thi ca i
tng nghin cu thi on cui cng t
n
vi i l bt k trong s m trng thi c th
ca n: i = 1,, m. Cn tm qu o di chuyn ca i tng t trng thi ban u X
0

n trng thi cui cng x
n,i
sao cho qu o l ti u. Trong qu trnh di chuyn t
trng thi ban u X
0
n,i
, i tng nghin cu s to ra mt
hiu ng no . Dng ca hiu ng rt a dng tu thuc vo dng ca bi ton: c
th l nng lng cn tiu hao, c th l nng lng sinh ra trong qu trnh di chuyn,
cng c th l chi ph cn thit trong qu trnh di chuyn t trng thi ny sang trng
thi khc v.v... Sau y, tin s dng ta gi chung cc hiu ng l nng lng.
Gi Z (x
n,i,
,X
0
) l nng lng sinh ra trong qu trnh di chuyn ca i tng t
trng thi ban u X
0
n,i
. Cn tm qu o di chuyn ca i
tng X
0
x
n,i
vi i l trng thi bt k ti thi im cui, sao cho hm nng lng:
F = Z (x
n,i,
,X
0
) max (min) (5-155)
Qu o tng ng s l qu o ti u.
Ta chia thi k
0
t t
n
ra nhiu thi on ni tip nhau, gi s ta chia lm n thi
on. mi thi on, trng thi ca i tng c th l bt k trong gii hn hot
ng ca n (xem hnh 5-11). K hiu
j, i
x l trng thi c th ca i tng thi
on th j (ch s ch thi on); i l ch s ch trng thi ca i tng thi on .
mi mt thi on c phn chia, trng thi ca i tng ch nhn nhng gi tr
tho mn iu kin:

i i
min j, i max
x x x vi i =1, 2,..., n; j = 1, 2,..., m
Trong ,
i
min
x v
i
max
x tng ng l gii hn trn v gii hn di ca trng thi
ti thi on th j phn chia.
K hiu
j j, i j 1, k
z (x , x )
-
l "nng lng" nhn c khi i tng di chuyn t
trng thi k bt k thi on j -1 l
j 1, k
(x )
-
, n trng thi i bt k thi on j l
j, i
(x ) . Ta phn tch cc trng thi ti u i tng khi n di chuyn t trng thi
ban u
0
x n trng thi
j, i
(x ) . C v s cc qu o i tng "chuyn ng" t
ta ban u
0
x n trng thi
j, i
x , nhng ch c mt qu o ti u.

1 2 ............................ n-2 n-1 n
Bc
x
1,1
x
1,2
x
1,3
x
1,4
x
2,4
x
2,3
x
2,2
x
2,1
x
n-2,4
x
n-2,3
x
n-2,2
x
n-2,1
x
n,4
x
n,3
x
n,2
x
n,1
x
0
Qu o ti u

Hnh 5-11

Theo nguyn l Bellman, bi ton ti u trng thi, c pht biu nh sau:
Qu o ti u, mt i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u x
0
n trng
thi
j, i
x bt k giai on th j, l qu o m khi di chuyn trn n sinh ra mt
"nng lng ti u".
Nng lng ti u nhn c l cc tr ca tng cc nng lng i tng di
chuyn t trng thi ban u n trng thi
j 1, k
(x )
-
cng vi nng lng i tng
di chuyn t
j 1, k
(x )
-
n trng thi
j, i
x . Nh vy, cn tm trng thi no trong s cc

trng thi thi on trc
j 1, k
(x )
-
vi k = 1, m, i tng khi di chuyn t
0
x i qua n n
j, i
x t nng lng ti u.
V qu o chuyn ng t
0
x i qua
j 1, k
(x )
-
n
j, i
x phi l qu o ti u, do
, qu o t
0
x n trng thi cn tm trc
j 1, k
(x )
-
cng phi l qu o ti u.
Bi vy, phi tm qu o no trong s cc qu o di chuyn ca i tng t
0
x n
trng thi bt k
j 1, k
(x )
-
giai on j - 1 l qu o ti u. Qu o ti u phi l qu
o m nng lng sinh t gi tr cc tr. Nng lng ny bng tng nng lng ti
u h thng di chuyn t
0
x n
j 2, k
(x )
-
cng vi nng lng sinh ra khi i tng
di chuyn t trng thi ti u thi on trc
j 2, k
(x )
-
n trng thi
j 1, i
(x )
-
.
Mt cch tng t, cn tm trng thi no trong s cc trng thi trc
j 2, k
(x )
-
giai on j - 2, khi i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u
0
x qua n
n
j 1, i
(x )
-
t nng lng ti u.
C nh vy ta cn tin hnh nhng bc tng t theo chiu ngc li cho n
trng thi ban u.
Nh vy, tm c qu o ti u, ta cn thit lp cc qu o ti u c iu
kin bt u t trng thi ban u (bc tnh xui), sau , trong bc tnh ngc, t
trng thi ti u c iu kin giai on cui cng, ta ln ngc li s c qu o
ti u ca bi ton.
5.6.3.2. Ph- ng php gii
a. B- c tnh xui
Trc tin ta xem xt "nng lng" i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u
0
x

n trng thi bt k ca n thi on th nht (j =1). Ti thi on th nht, i
tng c th di chuyn t trng thi ban u
0
x n trng thi bt k
1, i
x . Hm nng
lng t c khi i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u
0
x n trng thi bt k
1, i
x l:
1 1, i 0
z (x , x ) , vi i 1, m = .
thi on u tin, ta cha tm trng thi ti u.
Sang giai on th hai, i tng cng c th di chuyn n trng thi bt k
2, i
x . C v s cc qu o trng thi t
0
x qua cc trng thi bt k thi on j = 1
t n
2, i
x (vi i l bt k). Ta cn xc nh xem trng thi no thi on trc
(j = 1), khi i tng di chuyn qua n trng thi
2, i
x cho gi tr ti u v nng
lng, tc l:

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k 0
2, i
Z (x ) max (z (x , x ) z (x , x ))
x
= + (5-156)
vi k = 1, 2,..., m; v i = 1, 2,..., m (nu tt c cc thi on, vng gii hn ca
h thng u c chia thnh m trng thi).
Trong :
1 1, k 0
z (x , x ) l "nng lng" sinh ra khi i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u
x
o
n trng thi x
1,k

thi on u tin;
2 2, i 1, k
z (x , x ) l nng lng sinh ra khi i tng di chuyn t trng thi x
1,k

giai
on 1 n trng thi bt k x
2,i
giai on 2.
Vi mi trng thi th i thi on th 2, s tm c mt gi tr
1, k
x
*
thi
on th nht cho qu o
0 1, k 2, i
x x x
*
- - l qu o ti u. Tng ng vi mi
trng thi th i ( i 1, m = ) c mt gi tr
1, k
x
*
. Ta s c m qu o t ti u n cc
trng thi
2, i
x vi i =1, 2,..., m.
t
1 1, k 1 1, k 0
Z (x ) z (x ,x ) = (5-157)
Ta c th vit li biu thc (5-156) di dng sau:

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k
2, i
Z (x ) max (z (x , x ) z (x ))
x
= + (5-158)
Trong :
1 1, k
z (x ) l gi tr ti u khi i tng di chuyn t x
0
n x
1,k
, vi k l
bt k thi on th nht.
Theo kt qu tm c, ta lp c cp quan h
1, k
x
*
~ x
2,i
.

Thi on th 3, cn phi tm trng thi no trong s cc trng thi c th thi
on th hai x
2,k
, khi i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u qua n n trng
thi x
3,i

t nng lng ti u. iu kin c tho mn c m t theo biu thc sau:

3 3, i 3 3, i 2, k 2 2, k
3, i
Z (x ) max (z (x , x ) z (x ))
x
= + (5-159)
Trong :

2 2, k
z (x ) l nng lng ti u khi i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u x
0

n trng thi x
2,k
, c xc nh thi on th 2.

3 3, k 2, k
, x z (x ) l nng lng khi i tng di chuyn t trng thi x
2,k
(vi k l bt
k), n trng thi x
3,i
thi on 3.
Tng t nh giai on 2 ta tm c trng thi
2, k
x
*
ti u thi on trc
(thi on th 2), i tng di chuyn t trng thi ban u x
o
qua n n trng
thi x
3,i

bt k giai on 3. Nh vy, n giai on 3, ta c qu o ti u
0 1, k 2, k 3, i
x x x x
* *
- - - .V tng t ta lp c cp quan h
2, k
x
*
~ x
3,i

n thi im bt k th j ta c biu thc tng qut ca bi ton ti u c iu
kin:

j j, i j j, i j-1, k j 1 j-1, k
j, i
Z (x ) (z (x ,x ) Z (x ))
max
x
-
= + (5-160)
Tng t nh tt c cc thi on trn, thi on bt k th j, c th tm c
mt trng thi thi on trc n j - 1 l
j-1, k
x
*
khi i tng di chuyn t qu o
ti u trc (qu o ti u t trng thi ban u x
o
n trng thi
j-1, k
x
*
) n trng
thi bt k x
j,i
cho gi tr ti u. Nh vy, n giai on th j ta c qu o ti u t
trng thi ban u x
o
, n trng thi bt k x
j,i
l:
0 1, k 2, k 3, k j, i
x x ... x x x
* * *
- - - - - .V c cp quan h
j-1, k
x
*
~
j, i
x
n thi on cui cng j = n, ta c :

n n, i n n, i n-1, k n 1 n-1, k
Z (x ) max(z (x ,x ) Z (x ))
-
= + (5-161)
Trong : x
n,i
l trng thi cn t c thi on cui vi i =1, 2,..., m. Gi
tr Z
n
(x
n,i
) chnh l gi tr ti u ca hm mc tiu, a h thng t trng thi ban
u n trng thi x
n,i
bt k giai on cui. Ti thi on cui, vi mi trng thi
c n nh trong s cc trng thi c th i (vi i =1, 2,..., m) ca n, s tng ng c
mt qu o ti u khi n di chuyn t trng thi ban u n trng thi .
Trong thc t, thi on cui cng c th xy ra hai trng hp sau:
1. n nh trc mt trng thi no trong s cc trng thi x
n,i
m i tng
cn phi di chuyn n. Khi , t trng thi n nh trc, tnh ton theo bc tnh
ngc (xem mc sau) s c qu o ti u tng ng.
2. Cn xc nh trng no trong s cc trng thi x
n,i
c qu o ti u ton
cc. Trong trng hp nh vy, gi tr ti u s l cc tr ca cc gi tr ti u trong s
m trng thi c th giai on cui, tc l:
Z
n
= max(Z
n
(x(
n,i
); i = 1, 2,..., m)) (5-162)
Tng t nh bi ton phn phi ti nguyn, ta lp bng cc quan h gia trng
thi ti u thi on trc vi trng thi bt k ca thi on ang xt (bng
5-14). Cc quan h ny c lu trong b nh ca my tnh v c s dng bc
tnh ngc.
b. B- c tnh ng- c
Vi trng thi x
n
no (gi s l x
n,3
), theo quan h bng (5-14), tm c
mt trng thi ti u
n-1
x
*
=
n-1, k
x
*
, vi k l mt ch s trng thi c th no tng
ng vi trng thi cn t giai on n l x
n
= x
n,3
. Chng hn ta tm c k = 2, khi
:
n-1
x
*
=
n-1, 2
x
*
.
C c gi tr
n-1, k
x
*
, ta tip tc dng bng quan h tm ra chui cc trng thi
ti u (qu o ti u t)
n-1
x
*
n
n
x
*
:

0 1 2 j n
, x , x , ..., x , ..., x ) (x
* * * * *
(5-163)

Bng 5- 14: Bng quan h ph tr s dng cho bc tnh ngc
Giai on
Trng thi
2 3 ... n
1
1, k
x
*
~ x
2,1

2, k
x
*
~ x
3,1

.
n-1, k
x
*
~ x
n,1

2
1, k
x
*
~ x
2,2

2, k
x
*
~ x
3,2

.
n-1, k
x
*
~ x
n,2

3
1, k
x
*
~ x
2,3

2, k
x
*
~ x
3,3

.
n-1, k
x
*
~ x
n,3

. . . . .
m
1, k
x
*
~ x
2,m

2, k
x
*
~ x
3,m

.
n-1, k
x
*
~ x
n,m

5.7. p dng phng php ti - u ha trong quy hoch qun l
ngun n- c
Phng php ti u ha khi p dng trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc rt
a dng. Trong ti liu ny trnh by mt s ng dng c th minh ha cho phng
php ti u ha.

5.7.1. Ti u vi bi ton thit k h thng
V d 1: Bi ton thit k h thng h cha cp n- c
Gi s thit k h thng gm 3 h cha v c nhim v cp nc cho vng A vi
qu trnh lu lng cn l q(t). Xc nh dung tch hiu dng ca 3 h sao cho chi ph
xy dng cng trnh l nh nht. S c 3 cng trnh h cha c a vo xem xt
trong bi ton quy hoch v c 3 loi kh nng phng n cng trnh:
1. Xy dng h cha 1 v h cha 2 vi quy m tng ng l V
1
v V
2
:
Vc
1
V
1
V
1bt
; Vc
2
V
2
V
2bt

Vc
1
,Vc
2
- dung tch cht ca h HC1 v HC2
V
1bt
,V
2bt
- dung tch ln nht cho php tng ng vi mc nc dng bnh
thng cho php ca hai h.
2. Xy dng h 2 v h 3 vi quy m V
2
v V
3
: Vc
3
V
3
V
3bt

Vi Vc
3
l dung tch cht ca h HC3; V
3bt
l dung tch ln nht cho php ca h
HC3 tng ng vi mc nc dng bnh thng cho php.
3. Xy dng c 3 h cha vi quy m V
1
, V
2
v V
3
.

Q(t)
Q
KG1
(t)
Q
KG2
(t)
HC1
HC2
HC3
Vng ti
C
q
C
(t)
Vng ti
A
Vng ti
B
q
B
(t)
q
A
(t)

Hnh 5-12: S h thng cp nc ti
HC1, HC2, HC3 - h cha; Q (t) l qu trnh lu lng n thit k tuyn h HC1;
Q
KG1
(t), Q
KG2
(t) l cc qu trnh lu lng khu gia thit k;
q
A
(t), q
B
(t), q
C
(t) l qu trnh lu lng theo yu cu ti ca vng A, B, C;
Vng A, B, C - vng ti.
C th p dng phng php quy hoch ng gii bi ton ny.
Gi cc gi tr
1 2 3
v ,v ,v l cc quy m dung tch hiu dng ca mi cng trnh.
Khi theo iu kin a hnh dung tch ln nht v nh nht ca dung tch hiu dng
V
h1h
, V
h2h
, V
h3h
l:
0 V
1
V
h1h
= V
1bt
-V
1c

0 V
2
V
h2h
= V
2bt
-V
2c

0 V
3
V
h3h
= V
3bt
-V
3c

V
h1h
, V
h2h
, V
h3h
l dung tch hiu dng a hnh nm gia dung tch cht v
dung tch tng ng vi mc nc dng bnh thng V
1bt
, V
2bt
, V
3bt
.
Cn xc nh quy m cng trnh cho cc cng trnh c a vo quy hoch sao
cho cc tiu hm mc tiu:

3
j j
T
j 1
C (v )
V
J C min
min
=
= =

(5-164)
Phng php gii bi ton c thc hin theo cc bc tnh xui v tnh ngc.
a. B- c tnh xui
Cc phng n xy dng u tin: Chi ph xy dng h u tin c vit
di dng:

T
1 1 1 1
C (V ) c (V ) = (5-165)
Vi cc rng buc:
- V cp nc q
C
(t) = q
A
(t) (5-166)
- V a hnh 0 V
1
V
h1h
; (5-167)
i vi h u tin mi c mt i tng nn cha xt ti u, gi tr V
1
nhn gi
tr bt k trong gii hn cho php ca n, c
1
(V
1
) l vn u t i vi h HC1 vi quy
m V
1
.
Xc nh gi tr dung tch hiu dng nh nht v ln nht ca HC1:
Dung tch nh nht ca h HC1 phi m bo cp nc ly ti thng lu
h l q
A
(t). Tin hnh tnh ton iu tit cho h HC1 c dung tch hiu
dng ti thiu cp nc theo yu cu q
A
(t) l V
h1(min)

Gi s h HC2 v HC3 l p dng, khi h HC1 phi c dung tch iu
tit b sung ln cp nc theo q
B
(t) v q
C
(t). Gi s tnh iu tit cho h
thng c dung tch hiu dng ln nht h HC1 l V
h1T
,. i chiu vi dung
tch hiu dng ln nht cho php theo a hnh V
h1h
:
- Nu V
h1T
V
h1h
th V
h1max
=V
h1h
(v dung tch h khng th vt mc
nc dng bnh thng cho php).

- Nu V
h1T
< V
h1h
th V
1max
=V
h1T
(h cha HC1 ch cn dung tch ln nht
V
h1T
cp nc cho ton h thng).
Gi s ta chia bin dung tch h HC1 thnh n1 cp ( tin theo di ta gi
nh chia thnh 4 mc: n1= 4) l V
11
, V
12
, V
13
, V
14
vi iu kin:
V
h1min
V
11
, V
12
, V
13
, V
14
V
h1max
(5-168)
Tng ng s c vn u t xy dng l C
1
(V
11
) C
1
(V
12
) C
1
(V
13
) C
1
(V
14
).
Cho v d bng s:
Phng n b tr dung tch hai h u tin: Phng trnh ti u c iu kin
khi b tr dung tch hiu dng hai h u tin c vit di dng:

T
2 2 2 2 1 1
2
C (V ) (c (V ) c (V ))
min
v
= + (5-169)

Bng 5-15: Dung tch hiu dng v chi ph xy dng h HC1
Phng n dung tch
(triu m
3
)
V
11
=V
h1min
=1,0 V
12
= 4,0 V
13
= 7,0 V
14
=V
h1max
= 10
C1(V
1
) (t ng) C
1
(V
11
)= 10,0 C
1
(V
12
)= 15,0 C
1
(V
11
)= 20,0 C
1
(V
14
)= 30,0

Phng trnh (5-169) c vit di dng phng trnh truy hi:

T T
2 2 2 2 1 1 2
2
C (V ) (c (V ) C (V V
min
v
)) = + + (5-170)
Vi rng buc:
T T
2 1 2
(V ) V V = + , t suy ra:
T T T
2 2 1 2 1
V V V V V = - = - (v trong trng hp xem xt hai h u tin th
T
1 1
V V = )
Trong V
1
v V
2
l quy m cng trnh ca h s HC1 v h s HC2 c th
chn bt k sao cho nm trong gii hn c th ca n;
T
2
V l dung tch tng cng ca
hai h u tin; c
1
(V
1
), c
2
(V
2
) l chi ph xy dng h th nht v th hai vi quy m V
1

v V
2
;
T
2 2
C (V ) l gi tr ti u c iu kin phng n 2 h u tin.
Vi iu kin tng dung tch ca hai h u tin nm trong khong gi tr ln
nht v nh nht ca n:

T T T
2 2 1 2 2
minV V (V V ) maxV = + (5-171)
Trong :
T T
2 2
min V , maxV tng ng l dung tch tng cng nh nht v ln
nht ca hai h u tin.
Xc nh
T T
2 2
minV , maxV :
Tng dung tch nh nht ca h HC1 v HC2 phi m bo cp nc ly ti
thng lu h HC1 l q
A
(t) v h HC2 l q
B
(t), tng ng vi h HC1 c dung tch ti
thiu l V
h1min
. Tin hnh tnh ton iu tit cho h HC1 v h HC2 c dung tch
hiu dng tng cng ca hai h l:
T
2
minV = 3,0 triu m
3

Xc nh
T
2
maxV :
Tng dung tch hiu dng ln nht ca hai h tng ng vi trng hp h HC3
l p dng (dung tch hiu dng bng 0). Khi hai h cha phi m HC1 v HC2
phi iu tit b sung m bo cp nc ti cho c 3 khu ti. Tnh ton iu tit
cho hai h cha HC1 v HC2 theo iu kin trn c tng dung tch hiu dng cho
hai h trn l
T
2tt
maxV . Tng dung tch hiu dng ca hai h
T
2
maxV khng th ln
hn dung tch cho php do iu kin a hnh. Bi vy:
- Nu
T T
2tt 2dh
V maxV = V
h1h
+V
h2h
th
T
2
maxV =
T
2dh
V
- Nu
T
2tt
maxV <
T
2dh
V = V
h1h
+V
h2h
th
T
2
maxV =
T
2tt
V
Gi s thng qua tnh ton c
T
2
maxV = 10 t m
3
. Gi tr ca dung tch hiu
dng tng cng nm trong khong:
3,0 triu m
3
=
T
2
minV
T
2
V
T
2
maxV =10 triu m
3

Gi s chia gi tr
T
2
V thnh 3 mc: 3,0; 5,0; 10,0 (triu m
3
)
S c cc t hp sau y ca dung tch hai h cha u tin (bng 5-15):
Cc gi tr c k hiu (*) l cc gi tr cho kinh ph nh nht c xc nh theo
cng thc (5-169). Cc phng n ti u i vi 3 mc ca tng dung tch
T
2
V c
thng k trong bng (5-16). Trong bng (5-16), mi phng n ti u ca mt mc
tng ng s l gi tr ti u ca V
1
v V
2
.


Bng 5-15: Cc t hp phn phi dung tch hai h cha u tin v gi tr ti u
T
2
V
(triu m
3
)
T
1 1
V V =
(triu m
3
)
C
1
(V
1
)
(t ng)
V
2
(triu m
3
)
C2(V
2
)
(t ng)
C
2
T
2
) (V = C1(V
1
)+C2(V
2
)
(t ng)
T
2
V = 3,0 1,0 10,0 2,0 16,0 26,0
(*)

1,0 10,0 4,0 22,0 32,0
T
2
V =5,0
4,0 15,0 1,0 8,0 23,0
(*)

1,0 10,0 9,0 36,0 46,0
4,0 15,0 6,0 28,0 43,0
7,0 20,0 3,0 15,0 35,0
T
2
V =10,0
10 30,0
0,0
(p dng)
2,0 32,0
(*)

Phng n b tr dung tch ba h cha: Phng trnh ti u c iu kin c dng:

T T
3 3 3 3 2 2
C (V ) min (c (V ) C (V ) = + (5-172)
Vi rng buc:
T T
3 2 3
V V V = + (5-173)
T xc nh V
3
=
T T
3 2
V V -
Bng 5-16: Phng n ti u theo cc mc ca
T
2
V
Phng n dung tch
(triu m
3
)
T
2
V = 3,0
T
2
V =5,0
T
2
V =10,0
min C
2
(
T
2
V ) (t ng) 26,0 23,0 32,0
V
1
1,0 4,0 10,0
V
2
2,0 1,0 0,0

Trong : V
3
l dung tch h th 3;
T
3
V l dung tch tng cng ca 3 h cha;
c
3
(v
3
) l chi ph xy dng h th 3 vi quy m v
3
;
T
3 3
C (V ) l gi tr ti u phng n 3
h;
T
2 2
C (V ) l gi tr ti u c iu kin khi xem xt cc phng n 2 h u tin. Gi
tr ti u
T
3 3
C (V ) l gi tr ti u cui cng, gi tr ny ph thuc vo bin chn V
3
.
Bi vy, cn phi thc hin bc cui cng: chn trong s cc gi tr
T
3 3
C (V ) mt gi
tr nh nht v chnh l gi tr ti u ca hm mc tiu.
Bng 5-17: Dung tch hiu dng ca h HC3 v kinh ph xy dng tng ng
Tng dung tch hiu dng h HC1+HC2
(triu m
3
)
Phng n 1
T
2
V = 3,0
Phng n 2
T
2
V =5,0
Phng n 3
T
2
V =10,0
Kinh ph xy dng cc tiu hai h HC1+ HC2
min C
2
(
T
2
V ) (t ng)
26,0 23,0 32,0
Dung tch hiu dng h HC3: V
3
(triu m
3
)

7,0 5,0
0,0
(p dng)
Kinh ph xy dng h HC3: C
2
(V
3
) (t ng) 30,0 26,0 3,0
Tng kinh ph xy dng 3 h (t ng) 56,0 49,0 35,0
(*)

H HC3 l h bc cui cng nn dung tch ca h HC3 phi m bo cp
nc cho vng ti C vi q
C
(t) vi s iu tit b sung ca hai h pha trn. Vi mi
phng n tng dung tch hiu dng ca hai h HC1 v HC2 l
T
2
V trong bng (5-16)
s c tng ng 1 gi tr dung tch hiu dng ca h HC3. Tnh ton iu tit cho h 3
h cha vi cc phng n
T
2
V s c dung tch hiu dng tng ng ca h HC3.
Trong bng (5-17) thng k kt qu xc nh V
3
, kinh ph xy dng km theo ca h
HC3 v kinh ph tng cng xy dng c 3 h theo cc mc khc nhau ca
T
2
V ( ti
u bc tnh ton trc).
b. B- c tnh ng- c
Theo kt qu tnh ton giai on cui cng thng k trong bng (5-17) cho
thy phng n 3 l phng n ti u nht, kinh ph xy dng tng cng nh nht l 35
t ng. Suy ngc li cc gi tr ti u c iu kin bng (5-16) cho kt qu dung
tch hiu dng cc h cha nh sau:
H HC1: Dung tch hiu dng V
1
= 10 triu m
3
; h HC2 v HC3 u c dung
tch hiu dng bng 0. Nh vy, ch nn xy dng h cha HC1 cn cc v tr cn li
ch nn lm p dng.
V d 2: Xc nh su cng tc c li nht ca h thng h cha bc
thang pht in
Trong v d ny xem xt bi ton ti u cho h thng h cha bc thang
pht in.
su cng tc c li nht ca mi h cha trong h thng bc thang pht in
c la chn sao cho lm cc i tng cng sut m bo ca h thng trm thu
in ca cc h cha trong bc thang:

F(h
1
, h
2
,..., h
j
,..., h
n
) =
n
j
j 1
Np max
=
= F(h
1
, h
2
,..., h
j
,..., h
n
) (5-174)
Hm mc tiu (5-174) c tham bin nghim l cc su cng tc.
Hm mc tiu ca bi ton ny c dng khng tch c nn khng th ng
dng phng php quy hoch ng.
Bi ton c th gii bng phng php lp ca trc tip i vi vc t:
H = (h
1
, h
2
,... h
n
).
Gii bi ton trn theo cc bc thc hin nh sau:
(1) La chn to ban u lm im xut pht:

0 0 0 0
1 2 n
H (h , h , ..., h ) = (5-175)
Tng ng ta c:

0 0 0 0
1 2 n
F(H ) F(h , h ,..., h ) = (5-176)
(2) Chn mt bin bt k trong vc t H v d tm hng c th cho bin y. Ta
bt u bin u tin h
1
, cc bin khc c gi nguyn gi tr ban u. Gi s ta tng
gi tr ca
1
h mt gi tr Dh
1
.
Ta c:
1 0
h
1 1 1
h h = + D (5- 177)
(3) Tnh gi tr
0 0 0
,
1 2 n
F F(h h , h ..., h )
1 1
= + D
v tnh DF
1
= F
1
- F(H
0
) (5-178)
(4) Kim tra iu kin:
- Nu DF
1
0 chng t hng di chuyn l ng ta c nh im vi
1
h v
d sang bin khc.
Tc l ly
1 0
1 1 1
h h h = + D (5-179)
- Nu DF
1
< 0 hng d ny khng v c max (khng t). Ta phi d theo
hng ngc li (li) ly:
1 0
1 1 1
h h h - = D
Tip tc tnh
0 0 0
F F(h h , h , ..., h )
1 1 1 2 n
= - v
0
'
1
F F F(H ) D = -


Chn gi tr ban u h
o
(1), h
0
(2), .., .., h
0
(n)
Bt u
Tnh hm gi tr F
0
(h
0
(1), h
0
(2), ..,..,h
0
(n)
I=1
(*)T nh hm F
1
= F[h
1
(I), (h
n
(k ), vi k=1,2,..,n) v k I)]
DF
0
> 0
DF
1
= F1 F
B
F
B
=F
0

h
1
(I) = h
0
(I)+Dh(I)
DF
1
> 0
yes
I=I+1
I> n
yes
h
1
(I) = h
0
(I) - Dh(I)

Tnh F
1

DF
1
= F1 F
B

DF
1
> 0
h
1
(I) = h
0
(I)
yes
No
DF
0
= F
1
F
0

h
0
(I) = h
1
(I)
vi mi I
DF
0
> e Dh(I) = 0, 5* Dh(I)

F
B
= F
1

yes
yes
No
No
No
STOP
No

Hnh 5-13: Phng php lp trc tip xc nh su cng tc c li nht


Nu
'
1
F 0 D , chng t hng d tm ng, ta c nh im v d tm cho
bin tip theo, tc l:

1 0
1 1 1
h h h = - (5-180)
Nu
1
F 0 D <
'
, hng d tm khng t, tc l ri vo tnh trng "tin thoi lng
nan". Trong trng hp ny ta gi nguyn bin h
1

1 0
1 1
x x = (5-181)
(5) D tm theo hng c th ca bin th hai: Trong khi bin th nht c
2
h D
Chn
2 0
1 2 2
h h h = + D v tnh
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(h , h h , h ..., h ) = +
(6) Tnh:
2 2 1
F F F D = -
Nu DF
2
0 hng di chuyn t yu cu, ta c nh to h
2
v d tm cho
bin tip theo, tc l chn

1 0
2 2 2
h h h = + D (5-182)
Nu DF
2
< 0, hng d tm khng t phi li.
Ta chn
1 0
2 2 2
h h h = D - v tnh -
1 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 3 n
F F(h , h h , h ..., h ) =
Tnh
'
2 2 1
F F F D = -
- Nu
'
2
F 0 D hng d tm t yu cu v c nh im chn:

1 0
2 2 2
h h h = D - (5-183)
v tip tc d tm cho bin tip theo.

1 0
2 2
h h = (5-184)
(7) Tip tc lm nh cc bc trn dy cho n cui cng l h
n
. Ta kt thc ln
lp th nht.
(8) Sau khi kt thc ln lp th nht, tnh gi tr F(H
1
), vi:

1 1 1 1
1 2 n
H (h , h , ..., h ) = (5-185)
(9) Kim tra iu kin:

1 0
F F(H ) F(H ) 0 D = - > (5-186)
Nu (5-186) khng tho mn, hng d tm khng tho mn, chuyn
sang bc (10).
Nu (5-186) tho mn, s d tm theo hng ny (xu th chung i vi
tt c cc tham bin) t yu cu. Kim tra thm iu kin:
Nu F D e (5-187)
Trong e l s dng cho trc tu (sai s ca kt qu d tm im cc tr)
- Nu (5-187) tho mn, kt thc cng vic d tm v nghim ti u
ca bi ton l:

1 2 n
H (h , h , ..., h )
* * * *
= (5-188)
- Nu F D > e, c ngha l hng di chuyn l ng nhng cha n
im cc tiu vi sai s cho trc e.
Ta tip tc d tm tip, nhng to ban u cho ln d tm tip theo l im kt
thc i vi ln d tm trc, tc l: H
0
= H
1
, ng thi bc d tm c chn nh ln
d tm trc , tc l:
ly
2 1
i i
h h i 1, n D = D =
(10) Trong trng hp DF < 0, chng t hng d tm khng t do vt qu
im c gi tr min. Kim tra iu kin:

k
i 1
h D e vi mi i (5-189)
Trong : k l ch s ch ln lp;
1
e l sai s cho trc i vi cc Dh
i
vi mi i.
Nu (5-189) tho mn, kt thc d tm v nghim ca bi ton.
Trong trng hp ngc li cn chia nh bc d tm bng cch chn:

k k 1
i i
1
h h
2
-
D = D
v tip tc quay li t bc u tin, cho n khi t c cc iu kin (5-188) v (5-189).

5.7.2. Ti u ho trong bi ton phn phi nc
Pht biu bi ton
Gi s ta c mt lng nc hn ch l W
T
, cn phn chia cho n vng sao cho
tng li ch mang li l ln nht. Gi thit cc vng c nhn nc t W
T
c th
khng p ng yu cu vng. Trong trng hp nh vy, cc vng c th khai thc
ngun nc ti ch v sp xp c ch cy trng hp l cho vng .
Gi w
j
l lng nc cp cho vng th j; j = 1 n n, sao cho tho mn rng buc:

n
T
i
j 1
w W
=
=
(5-190)
Cn tm phng n phn phi nc sao cho l cc i hm mc tiu c dng:
F = f
1
(w
1
, w
x1
, s
1
, A
1
) +...+ f
j
(w
j
, w
xj
, s
j
, A
j
) +...+ f
n
(w
n
, w
xn
, s
n
, A
n
) max (5-191)
Trong :
w
vj
- lng nc m c th khai thc c trong vng;
s
j
- vn cn u t bao gm chi ph cho yu cu v nc, phn bn v.v... ;
A
j
- thng s hnh thc c trng cho phng n cy trng.
Gi thit rng:
w
j
+ w
vj
= D
j
(5-192)
Trong :
D
j
- lng nc cn ph thuc vo cc phng n cy trng.
Cc hm f
j
(.) l li ch mang li vi phng n phn phi nc. Hm li ch f(.)
c th li ch thu c ca t vic bn nc (theo quan im phn tch ti chnh) hoc
li ch kinh t mang li cho ton vng (theo quan im phn tch kinh t).
Ph- ng php gii
Vic gii bi ton ti u dng (5-191) l rt phc tp v s lng bin ca bi
ton a dng, mt khc kh tm c phng php thch hp cho bi ton t ra i
vi nhng h thng c cu trc phc tp.
gii bi ton loi ny thng ngi ta s dng k thut phn cp. Ta c th
m t bi ton trn y theo h thng hai mc (xem hnh 5-14). Ta m t bi ton phn
phi nc theo hai dng: quan im kinh t v quan im ti chnh.
Theo quan im kinh t, bi ton c m t nh sau:
Cp trung tm cho ch tiu hot ng cc cp di l w
j
, j = 1,..., n, cc cp di
nhn c ch tiu w
j
s tm phng n ti u cho h thng con ang xt v cho phn
hi ln cp trung tm l j
j
f (w ) .
i vi vng th j, khi nhn lng nc h thng l w
j
, s cn lm ti u mt li
ch trong vng ca n biu th bng hm mc tiu:
f
j
(w
j
, w
vj
, s
j
, A
j
) (5-193)
Trong :
Mc tiu t c ca vng th j l lm cc tr hm (5-193) vi rng buc hm
(5-192). Cp trung tm s quan tm n gi tr cc i ca f
j
(w
j
), Ta c:

j j j vj j j
f(w ) max f (w , w , s , A ) = (5-194)
sao cho tho mn rng buc (5-192). Gi tr w
j
l phng n phn phi nc cho vng
th j c coi l bit khi gii bi ton ti u (5-194), nghim ca bi ton i vi
vng s l cc gi tr ti u i vi cc c trng w
vj
, s
j
, A
j
.
Ch rng vi w
j
nhn c, cc phng n cy trng A
j
bao gm cc trng
hp b hoang khng canh tc v khng c li.
Nh vy gi tr ti u ca h thng lm cc i hm li ch:

1 1 2 2 n n
maxF(w) f (w ) f (w ) ... f (w ) = + + + (5-195)
Vi rng buc dng (5-190).
Trong : W = ( w
1
, w
2
,..., w
j
,..., w
n
)
Nh vy, vi k thut phn cp chng ta a mt bi ton ti u nhiu bin s
(n+4n bin) v n bi ton ti u c 5 bin v 1 bi ton ti u n bin. Vi cch nh
vy s lm gim s phc tp ca bi ton ti u.
Cc bc gii bi ton trn nh sau:
(1) i vi mi h thng con th j, gi nh nhng gi tr w
j
khc nhau
(w
j1
, w
j2
,..., w
jm
), vi mi gi tr w
ji
tin hnh tm cc tr hm mc tiu dng (5-194)
c cc gi tr j
j
f (w ) .
(2) Vi mi vng j nh vy v c mt quan h hm ti u gia j
j
f (w ) vi cc
w
j
(hnh 5-15).
(3) Gii bi ton ti u ton h thng dng (5-195).
Bi ton ti u dng (5-195) c th c gii bng cc phng php ti u khc
nhau: Phng php quy hoch tuyn tnh, phng php quy hoch ng, phng php
ti u phi tuyn. a s cc bi ton ti u loi ny hin c gii bng phng php
quy hoch tuyn tnh hoc phng php quy hoch ng.

) ( f
j
w
j
) ( f
n
w
n
Trung tm
Vng 1
max f
1
(.)
Vng j
max f
j
(qj)
Vng n
max f
n
(qn)
w1
wj
w
n
)
1
(w
1
f
Hnh 5-14a: S phn cp h thng theo quan im phn tch kinh t
) ( f
j
w
j
) ( f
n
w
n
Trung tm
Vng 1
max f
1
(.)
Vng j
max f
j
(qj)
Vng n
max f
n
(qn)
a
1
a
j
a
n
)
1
(w
1
f
Hnh 5-14b: S phn cp h thng theo quan im phn tch ti chnh

Di y s trnh by cch t bi ton cho cc phng php trn.
Theo quan im ti chnh, ch tiu hot ng ca h thng cp di khng phi
l w
j
m l gi nc. Bi ton t ra nh sau:
Gi s cng ty qun l thu nng cn nh gi nc cho cc vng l a
j
,
j =1, 2,..., n. Vi gi nc n nh cho tng vng, cc vng s phi xem xt kh nng
dng nc vi gi nh vy v quyt nh lng nc dng w
j
. y l gi tr ti u m
h c th dng ti u hm mc tiu cc b dng (5-194). Phn hi ca tng con ln
trung tm (Cng ty) l gi tr ti u j
j
f (w ) bng:
j
j j j
f (w ) a w =
V hm mc tiu vi cp trung tm c dng:

n
j j
j 1
F a w
=
=

(5-196)
C quan qun l nc (Cng ty) phi quyt nh v phng n gi nc sao cho
li ch ca cng ty l ln nht, tc l hm mc tiu (5-196) phi t gi tr cc i.
j f (w
j
)
w
j

Hnh 5-15: Quan h j
j
f (w ) ~ w
j

1. Ph- ng php d tm ti - u
Bi ton ti u dng (5-195) vi rng buc dng (5-190) c th a v dng bi
ton khng c rng buc bng cch lp hm Lagrange:
L (W, l)= F(W) + l (W g(W)) (5-197)
Trong g(W) = w
1
+ w
2
+ ... + w
n
.
Vi l l nhn t Lagrange.
Bi ton ti u dng (5-197) c gii bng cc phng php d tm ti u,
Trong :
W = (w
1
, w
2
,..., w
j
,...,w
n
)
Vi phng php d tm ti u s tm c nghim ti u l
*
v W
*
:
W
*
= (w
*
1
, w
*
2
,..., w
*
n
)
2. Ph- ng php quy hoch ng
Hm mc tiu ca bi ton (5-195) l hm tch c. Bi vy, c th p dng
phng php quy hach ng gii bi ton ti u vi bi ton. Ta vit li hm mc
tiu vi dng sau:

1 1 2 2 n n
Z f (w ) f (w ) ... f (w ) = + + + (5-198)
Vi rng buc:

W
T
= w
1
+ w
2
+... + w
n
. (5-199)
Phng php qui hoch ng c gii quyt bng cch s dng cng thc truy
hi ca Bellman:

T T
j
j j j j 1 j j
(W ) max(f (w ) (W w ))
-
= + - Z Z (5-200)
trong : 0
T
j
W W
T
Cc gi tr j
j
f (w ) c tra trn biu (5-15).
Bi ton ti u c gii theo nhiu giai on, u tin xem xt s phn phi
nc cho 2 vng, sau l 3, 4 vng v.v..., cho n n vng. Sau thc hin php tnh
ngc tm c nghim ti u.
3. Ph- ng php quy hoch tuyn tnh
Phng php quy hoch tuyn tnh i hi hm mc tiu v cc rng buc phi
l cc biu thc tuyn tnh. Cc bi ton phn phi nc trn h thng c th coi l
tho mn vi i hi ny. Ta xt 2 bi ton sau:
a. Bi ton phn phi n- c theo quan im phn tch ti chnh
Theo quan im phn tch ti chnh, hm mc tiu c dng (5-196), vi rng
buc (5-190), v c th vit la nh sau:
max F = a
1
w
1
+ a
2
w
2
+... + a
j
w
j
+... + a
n
w
n
(5-201)
Vi rng buc:
w
1
+w
2
+...+w
j
+..+w
n
= W
T
(5-202)
y l dng bi ton tuyn tnh c th gii c theo phng php quy hoch
tuyn tnh.
b. Bi ton phn phi n- c theo quan im phn tch kinh t
Theo quan im phn tch kinh t ly li ch pht trin vng v pht trin quc
gia phn tch chin lc phn phi nc.
i vi tng vng (5-191) c th vit hm mc tiu di dng:

m Nt Nt
j j j j s i q i
j 1 i 1 i 1
F (B y C )A c S c Wn
= = =
= - - -

(5-203)
Trong :
A
j
- din tch cy trng loi j;
B
j
- gi thnh mt n v sn phm cy trng th j;
Y
j
- nng sut loi cy trng th j;
C
j
- chi ph cho mt n v din tch loi cy trng th j (khng tnh chi ph nc;
C
s
, C
q
- gi nc mt v nc ngm;
S
i
- lng nc mt c s dng;
W
q
- lng nc ngm c s dng;
m - s loi cy trng;
Nt - s thi on tnh ton trong mt nm (thi on thng ly bng thng).

Vi mi mt phng n phn phi nc w
j
, vng j phi c phng n b tr cy
trng lm cc i hm (5-203).
Vi cc rng buc:
- Rng buc v din tch:
Tng din tch canh tc khng vt qu din tch canh tc c th A.
Nu gi
j
j
A
A
l = th phi c
m
j
i 1
1
=
l
(5-204)
- Rng buc v nhu cu n- c t- i cy trng:
Tng lng nc mt thi on no i vi loi cy trng khng c vt
qu lng nc m h thng c th cp:

m
j j i s i q j i
i 1
A R S W
=
h + h
(5-205)
Trong R
ji
l mc s dng nc trn mt n v din tch ca cy trng th j
ti thi im i. ,
s q
h h l h s s dng nc mt v nc ngm.
- Rng buc v n- c mt:
Lng nc mt ca vng cng khng c vt qu mc c th cp c ca
h thng:

Nt
i c
i 1
S W
=

(5-206)
- Rng buc v n- c ngm:
Tng t nh nc mt

Nt
i q
i 1
W W
=

(5-207)
Trong W
c
v W
q
tng ng l lng nc mt v nc ngm m h thng c
th cp.

- Rng buc v din tch cy trng:
Tu thuc vo iu kin c th ca tng vng din tch cy trng loi j no
phi nm trong gii hn nht nh:
A
min
A
j
A
c
(5-208)
A
min
v A
c
l gi tr nh nht v ln nht ca din tch cy trng dnh cho cy
trng th j.
Cc biu thc t (5-203) n (5-208) u c dng tuyn tnh nn c th p dng
phng php quy hoch tuyn tnh gii.

5.7.3. Ti u vi bi ton pht trin ngun nc
Pht biu bi ton
Gi s i vi mt vng c th cn p ng yu cu v nc W(t) trong thi gian
quy hoch T, yu cu t mc ti a cui thi k quy hoch l Wmax. Gi s trong
giai on gii bi ton thit k h thng cng trnh xc nh c tp cc phng n
cng trnh tho mn yu cu nc t ra. Cn xc nh cc cng trnh no s c
a vo xy dng v xy dng vo thi gian no ca thi k quy hoch kinh ph
xy dng l nh nht.
V d: V d mt h thng c 4 cng trnh s c xy dng. Vn u t xy
dng C v kh nng cp nc Wc tng ng cho bng 5-18. Gi s cc cng trnh
c xy dng phi p ng yu cu nc W(t) c cho trong bng 5-19. H s chit
khu r = 0,05.
Yu cu xc nh trnh t u t xy dng cc cng trnh sao cho chi ph xy
dng l ti thiu. Tc l, tm cc tiu ca hm mc tiu:
F =
n t
-t
it it
i=1 i=1
x C (1 r) min + (5-209)
Trong :
C
it
- chi ph xy dng i vi cng trnh th i:
C
it
= 0 nu n khng c xy dng vo nm t;
C
it
= C
it
nu n c xy dng vo nm t ;
r - h s trit khu, t bin l thi gian tnh theo nm.
x
it
- h s ly gi tr bng 0 v 1: bng 0 tc l khng xy dng, khi nhn vi
C
it
s c tch bng 0, c ngha l khng c chi ph xy dng. Vic vo
h s x
it
d dng trong qu trnh tnh ton.
Vi cc s liu 2 bng (5-18) v (5-19), c 3 phng n v u t xy dng
m bo c yu cu nc pht trin theo thi gian W(t).
Bng 5-18: Vn u t v kh nng cp nc ca cc cng trnh
(Trong v d chi ph: tnh theo n v (t ng); cn kh nng cp nc
v nhu cu nc tnh theo n v th tch bng 1 triu m
3
)

Cng trnh 1 2 3 4
Chi ph xy dng C 20,0 35,0 40,0 50,0
Kh nng cp nc Wc 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0

Bng 5-19: Nhu cu nc theo thi gian (10 nm)
t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
W (t) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 10

Phng n 1: Xy dng cng trnh 1 v 4 vo nm u tin c th cp c
Wc = 5 n v ( nc theo yu cu), n nm th 5 hon thnh thm cng trnh s 2
v nm th 10 hon thnh cng trnh 3.
Phng n 2: Nm u xy dng hai cng trnh 2 v 3, n nm th 5 hon
thnh cng trnh 1 v n nm th 10 xy dng xong cng trnh 4.
Phng n 3: Nm u xy dng hai cng trnh 2 v 4. Vi 2 cng trnh ny
c xy dng s c kh nng cung cp Wc = 6 n v, p ng n nm th 10.
Bi vy, 2 cng trnh cn li s c hon thnh vo nm th 10. Nh vy, n nm
th 5 khng i hi c thm cng trnh no na ngoi hai cng trnh c xy dng
t nm u. iu c ngha l 2 cng trnh 1 v 3 c th xy dng vo bt k thi
im no, min l n nm th 10 phi hon thnh. Cc phng n xy dng c ghi
trong bng (5-20).
Bng 5-20: Cc phng n xy dng cng trnh
Nm u tin
(W(t) = 5 n v)
n nm th 5
(W(t) = 6 n v)
n nm th 10
(W(t) = 10 n v)
TT
Phng n
cng trnh
S hiu cng trnh theo
phng n
S hiu cng trnh theo
phng n
S hiu cng trnh theo
phng n
1 PA1 1+4 2 3
2 PA2 2+3 1 4
3 PA3 2+4 1+3

Ph- ng php gii
C th gii bi ton theo hai phng php: Phng php so snh trc tip v
phng php quy hoch ng.

a. Ph- ng php so snh trc tip
Theo phng php ny nghim ti u c tm trc tip bng cch so snh cc
gi tr ca hm ca 3 phng n trn. C th lp bng dng (5-21) v so snh cc ti
liu tnh c trong bng trn chn ra gi tr nh nht.
Bng 5-21: Tnh ton chi ph theo phng php so snh trc tip
TT Phng n Nm u tin n nm th 5 n nm th 10 Tng cng
1 PA1 1+4 2 3
F(PA1) (20+50)(1+r)
-1
(35)(1+r)
-5
(40)(1+r)
-10
100

2 PA2 2+3 1 4
F(PA2) (35+40)(1+r)
-1
(20)(1+r)
-5
(50)(1+r)
-10
118
3 PA3 2+4 1+3
F(PA3) (35+50)(1+r)
-1
(20+40)(1+r)
-10
118

b. Ph- ng php quy hoch ng
Phng php quy hoch ng vi bin trng thi thng c p dng i vi
cc loi bi ton c bin l hm ca thi gian. Bi ton ny c m t theo thut quy
hoch ng nh sau: Hm mc tiu (5-209) c vit li di dng khc:
Z =
n 0
Z(S , S ) min (5-210)
Vi Wc(t) W(t) vi mi t. (5-211)
Trong S
0
l trng thi cng trnh ti thi im ban u; S
n
l trng thi cng
trnh nm th n (nm cui cng ca quy hoch). iu c ngha l vi trng thi
h thng cng trnh ban u l S
0
th phi c chin lc pht trin h thng cng trnh
nh th no a h thng t trng thi S
0
n trng thi S
n
tng chi ph l nh
nht v vn c th m bo nhu cu nc trong qu trnh l W(t). Trng thi ban
u trong trng hp ny S
0
l mt tp hp trng (khng c cng trnh).
B- c tnh xui:
Trc tin ta xem xt cc phng n cng trnh nm u tin. Gi s nm
u tin ta c I
1
phng n cng trnh p ng yu cu cp nc sau nm u tin
(trong v d trn c 3 phng trnh I
1
= 3). Ta c chi ph xy dng cng trnh nm u
tin l
1 1, k 0
z (S , S ) , trong S
1,k
l trng thi cng trnh sau nm u tin, ch s k l s
phng n cng trnh; k =1, 2,..., k, I
1
.
Tip tc xem xt s pht trin cng trnh sau 5 nm (thi on quy hoch ly
theo thi gian 5 nm). i vi thi on th I
2
phng n cng trnh c chn sao
cho khi n kt hp vi trng thi S
1,k
(vi k =1, 2,..., I
1
) ca giai on 1 lm tho mn
nhu cu nc thi on th 2, cc phng n cng trnh c xy dng thm cui
giai on 2 l S
2,i
, vi i =1, 2,...,I
2
. Khi ta c tng chi ph xy dng cho mi mt
phng n kt hp l:

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k 0
2,i
Z (S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S , S ))
x
= + (5-212)
Trong :
1 1, k 0
z (S , S ) - chi ph xy dng tnh n cui giai on 1 vi I
1
phng n bt
k S
1,k

thi on u tin;
z
2
(S
2,i
,S
1,k
) - chi ph xy dng giai on 2 vi phng n cng trnh S
1,k

giai
on 1 v phng n S
2,i
giai on 2.
Vi mi trng thi th i thi on th 2, s tm c mt gi tr ti u
1, k
S
*

thi on th nht c s kt hp
0 1, k 2, i
S S S
*
- - l ti u. Tng ng vi mi trng
thi th i (
2
i 1, I = ) c mt gi tr
1, k
S
*
. Ta s c I
2
phng n kt hp ti u khi phng
n cng trnh giai on 2 l
2, i
S vi i =1, 2,...,I
2
.
t
1 1, k 1 1, k 0
Z (S ) z (S , S ) = (5-213)
Ta c th vit li biu thc (5-51) di dng sau :

2 2, i 2 2, i 1, k 1 1, k
2,i
Z
S
(S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S )) = + (5-214)
Trong :
1 1, k
Z (S ) - gi tr vn u t xy dng vi phng n S
1,k
, cui giai
on u tin.
Theo kt qu tm c, ta lp c cp quan h
1, k
S
*
~ S
2,i
.

n giai on bt k th j ta c biu thc tng qut ca bi ton ti u c iu
kin nh sau:

j j, i j j, i j 1, k j 1 j 1, k
j,i
Z
S
(S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S ))
- - -
= + (5-215)
Trong cng thc truy hi tng qut gi tr hm Z
j
(S
j,i
) quy i v gi tr hin
ti, tc l:

n
t
j 1 j 1, k it it
i 1
Z (1 r) x C (S )
-
- -
=
+ =
(5-216)
C
it
l chi ph ca tt c cc cng trnh c a vo phng n tnh ti thi im
bt k; x
it
= 0 th coi nh cng trnh khng c thc hin.

Tng t nh tt c cc thi on trn, giai on bt k th j, c th tm c
mt trng thi cng trnh giai on trc n j 1 l
j 1, k
S
*
-
khi kt hp vi phng
n cng trnh bc th j l S
j,i
cho gi tr ti u. Nh vy, n giai on th j ta c
mt chin lc ti u pht trin h thng cng trnh t trng thi ban u S
o
n trng
thi bt k S
j,i
l:
S
0

1, k
S
*

2, k
S
*

3, k
S
*

...

j, i
S .V c cp quan h
j 1, k
S
*
-
~
j, i
S
n giai on cui cng j = n, ta c:

n n, i n n, i n 1, k n 1 n 1,k
Z (S ) min(z (S , S ) z (S ))
- - -
= + (5-217)
Trong : S
n,i
l phng n cng trnh giai on cui vi i =1, 2,..., I
n
. Gi tr
Z
n
(S
n,i
) chnh l gi tr ti u ca hm mc tiu, a h thng t trng thi ban u
n trng thi S
n,i
bt k giai on cui. Ti thi on cui, vi mi trng thi c
n nh trong s cc trng thi c th i (vi i =1, 2,..., I
n
) ca n, s tng ng c mt
kt hp ti u cc phng n cng trnh bt u t trng thi ban u.
Ti giai on cui cng cn xc nh phng n no trong s cc trng thi S
n,i

c ti u ton cc. Khi , gi tr ti u s l cc tr ca cc gi tr ti u trong s I
n

trng thi ti u c iu kin giai on cui, tc l:
Z
n
= min (Z
n
(S
n,i
); i = 1, 2,..., I
n
) (5-218)
B- c tnh ng- c
Vi trng thi S
n
no , tin hnh bc tnh ngc s tm c phng n ti u:

0 1 2 j n
S , S , S , ..., S , ..., S
* * * * *
(5-219)
Cch gii bi ton trn y l bi ton cha k n chi ph vn hnh. Khi c k
n chi ph qun l vn hnh trong giai on khai thc, hm mc tiu ca chin lc
u t pht trin h thng cng trnh s c dng sau:
F =
T n
t
i i i it
t 0 i 1
(1 r) (a c b w )
-
= =
+ + +

min (5-220)
Vi cc rng buc:
- Lng nc cp c ca h thng cng trnh nm t phi ln hn hoc bng
lng nc yu cu theo quy hoch ca nm :

n
it
i 1
w W(t)
=

(5-221)
- Chng trnh tha mn yu cu v nc ca cng trnh th i vo nm t khng
vt qu nng lc ca cng trnh l w
i
:
0 w
it
w
i
(5-222)

Trong : t - bin thi gian;
i - ch s cng trnh;
r - h s chit khu;
T - thi gian quy hch tnh bng nm;
n - tng s cng trnh c nghin cu trong quy hoch;
W(t) - nhu cu nc tng cng ca vng;
W
i
- kh nng p ng yu cu nc ln nht ca cng trnh th i;
c
i
- chi ph xy dng cng trnh th i;
a
i
- chi ph qun l cng trnh hng nm ca cng trnh th i,
(ly c nh cho mi cng trnh);
b
i
- chi ph vn hnh cho mi n v lng nc ca cng trnh th i;
w
it
- chng trnh cp nc ca cng trnh th i trong nm t.

Cch gii bi ton ti u dng (5-220) c thc hin tng t nh bi ton cha
tnh n chi ph vn hnh, ch khc ch, vi mi phng n pht trin h thng phi
tnh chi ph qun l vn hnh cng trnh. Cng thc truy hi theo nguyn l Bellman
vn c dng:

j j, i j j, i j 1, k j 1 j 1, k
j,i
Z
S
(S ) min (z (S , S ) z (S ))
- - -
= + (5-223)
Trong :
j j, i j j j, i j 1, k j 1, j 1,k
Z S (S ) g z (S , S ) h(S )
- - -
= + (5-224)

K
t
j j, i j 1, k kt
k 1
g (S S (a )(1 r)
-
-
=
= +
, ) (5-225)

K
t
j j, i j 1, k kt kt
k 1
h (S S b w (1 r)
-
-
=
= +
, ) (5-226)
a
kt
- chi ph qun l cho cng trnh th k c xy dng vo thi im t;
c
kt
- chi ph xy dng cng trnh th k nu n c xy dng vo thi im t ;
b
kt
- chi ph vn hnh cho mt n v lng nc w
kt
ca k hoch cp nc
ca cng trnh th k ti thi im t.

V d minh ha
Gi s phi xc nh chin lc u t pht trin h thng cng trnh p ng
yu cu nc ca vng trong tng lai vi dung lng nc dng cho trong bng
(5-22). Trong giai on tnh ton thit k h thng chn c 8 phng n cng

trnh c th m bo cp nc theo nhu cu trn. Kh nng cp nc v chi ph u t
c bn thng k trong bng (5-23).
Bng 5-22: Yu cu v nc theo thi gian vi thi on 5 nm
Thi gian (Dt=5 nm) 1 2 3 4
Nhu cu nc (10
6
m
3
) 100,0 180,0 250,0 300,0

Bng 5-23: Chi ph xy dng v qun l vn hnh
Cng trnh Tui th
cng trnh
Nng lc cung cp w
i

(10
6
m
3
)
Chi ph xy dng v qun l
cng trnh c
i
+a
i
(10
9
ng)
Chi ph vn hnh b
i

(ng/10
6
m
3
)
1 100 91,250 16,000 28.000
2 100 73,000 15,000 25.000
3 100 54,750 6,000 20.000
4 100 45,625 7,500 12.000
5 100 40,150 8,000 15.000
6 100 36,500 10,000 12.000
7 100 32,850 10,000 10.000
8 100 18,250 15,000 24.000

Bng 5-24: Chi ph xy dng v qun l vn hnh
Lng nc cp c cho tng giai on vi phng n xy dng cng trnh ph trch (10
6
m
3
)
Cng trnh
1 2 3 4
1 0 70,265 91,225 68,225
2 0 0 0 73,000
3 54,375 54,750 54,750 54,750
4 45,625 45,625 45,625 45,625
5 0 0 40,150 40,150
6 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 18,250 18,250
Tng s 100,000 180,000 250,000 300,000

Yu cu xy dng chin lc pht trin h thng cng trnh sao cho tng chi ph
xy l nh nht. H s chit khu r = 6,125%.
Theo thut ton quy hoch ng ti u hm mc tiu dng (5-220) tnh c kt
qu chin lc u t xy dng h thng cng trnh ghi trong bng (5-24). Theo kt
qu bng (5-24) cng trnh th 6 v th 7 khng a vo d n quy hoch (khng
cn xy dng). Chin lc ti u s l: Giai on 5 nm u xy dng cng trnh 3 v
4; giai on 2 xy dng cng trnh s 1; giai on 3 xy dng cng trnh s 5 v s 8;
giai on 5 nm cui xy dng cng trnh s 2 cn li.

5.8. p dng m hnh m phng trong quy hoch ngun n- c

M hnh m phng l mt cng c quan trng khi lp cc quy hoch hoc qun
l ngun nc. Nh trnh by trn, phng php m phng khng tm li gii
bng m hnh ti u m s dng m hnh m phng tm li gii ti u. Khc vi
phng php ti u ho, phng php m phng s dng m hnh m phng tm
gi tr ln nht (bi ton tm cc i) hoc nh nht (bi ton tm cc tiu) trong s cc
phng n c th bng cch so snh trc tip cc gi tr tnh ton. Nghim ca bi ton
cha chc trng vi nghim ti u ton hc (nghim ca phng php ti u ho),
do n ch l a tr gn ti u v thng gi l nghim hp l.
Gi s ta gii bi ton ti u ho bng phng php m phng khi thit k h
thng cng trnh. Qu trnh phn tch tnh ton xc nh phng n thit k h thng
c thc hin theo cc bc v chu trnh sau:
Bc 1: Xc nh mc tiu khai thc h thng v lng ho cc mc tiu khai
thc.
Bc 2: Thit lp cc phng n c th v bin php cng trnh v cc phng
n khai thc h thng v cu trc h thng cc yu cu v nc (cc phng n s
dng nc, chng l, tiu ng v.v).
Bc 3: Xy dng m hnh m phng h thng theo cc phng n cng trnh v
phng n khai thc h thng.
Bc 4: Kim tra bng m hnh m phng kh nng p ng cc yu cu v
nc vi cc phng n cng trnh thit lp. Qu trnh phn tch c th dn n s
cn thit phi iu chnh b sung cc phng n cng trnh v phng n khai thc.
Bc 5: La chn cc phng n c th sau khi kim tra theo yu cu bc 4.
Bc 6: Tm phng n ti u bng phng php m phng.
Bc 7: Kim tra s chp nhn c ca phng n ti u v phn tch quyt
nh phng n quy hoch.
minh ha cho nguyn l trn ta xem xt v d v thit k h thng h cha
bc thang pht in.
Gi s c 3 h cha bc thang pht in vi cc mc nc dng bnh thng
n nh l Hbt
1
, Hbt
2
, Hbt
8.


Cn xc nh cc su cng tc ( su nc t mc nc dng bnh thng
n mc nc cht) l h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT3
sao cho tng cng sut m bo ca h thng h
cha l ln nht:
F (h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT3
) =
3
Pi
i 1
N max
=

(5-227)
Trong N
Pi
l cng sut m bo ca h th i.

h
CT3
h
CT2
h
CT1
Hbt
CT3
Hbt
CT2
Hbt
CT1
Hbt: Mc nc dng bnh thng
h
CT
: su cng tc
H
C
; Mc nc cht
H
C1
H
C2
H
C3

Hnh 5-16: S h thng h cha bc thang pht in

tm nghim ti u cho bi ton trn c th ng dng phng php ti u ho,
cng c th s dng phng php m phng c thc hin theo cc bc nh sau:
Bc 1: La chn cc phng n c th ca cc su cng tc h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT8.

Gi s c m phng n
Bc 2: Tng ng vi mi phng n s dng m hnh tnh ton cng sut m
bo ca h thng xc nh cc gi tr ca hm F (h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT3
).
Bc 3: Phn tch chn mt phng n trong cc phng n tnh ton c hm
mc tiu (5-227) t gi tr ln nht.
Hbt - mc nc dng bnh thng;
h
ct
- su cng tc;
H
c
- mc nc cht.
Cc bc xc nh nghim ti u theo phng php m phng ca bi ton ny
m t trn hnh (5-17).
V ch c th chn hu hn cc phng n tnh ton nn nghim tm c ch l
nghim gn ti u v c th khng trng vi nghim tm c bng phng php ti
u ho.

Hnh 5-17: S tng qut xc nh nghim ti u bng phng php m phng

Cc phng n su
cng tc:
PA
1
(h
CT1,1
, h
CT2,1
, h
CT3,1
)
PA
2
(h
CT1,2
, h
CT2,2
, h
CT3,2
)

PA
3
(h
CT1,3
, h
CT2,3
, h
CT3,3
)

..................................
..................................
PA
j
(h
CT1,j
, h
CT2,j
, h
CT3,j
)

..............................
...
.................................
PA
m
(h
CT1,m
, h
CT2,m
, h
CT3,m
)

Users model
of system

M hnh tnh ton
thu nng xc nh
cng sut m bo
ca h thng h
cha

(M hnh
m phng)

Tnh cc gi tr hm:
F =
3
Pi
i 1
N
=

F
1
(h
CT1,1
, h
CT2,1
, h
CT3,1
)
F
2
(h
CT1,2
, h
CT2,2
, h
CT3,2
)

F
3
(h
CT1,3
, h
CT2,3
, h
CT3,3
)

..................................
F
j
(h
CT1,j
, h
CT2,j
, h
CT3,j
)

.................................
F
m
( h
CT1,m
, h
CT2,m
, h
CT3,m
)

Chn phng n ti u l phng n m gi tr hm mc tiu
c gi tr ln nht
F (h
CT1
, h
CT2
, h
CT3
) =
3
Pi
i 1
N
=
t gi tr ln nht
Chng 6- H thng h tr ra quyt nh 177

Chng 6

h thng h tr ra quyt nh

6.1. Khi nim v h thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS)

Trong qu trnh lp cc quy hoch ngun nc cho mt vng, mt lu vc sng
ngi ra quyt nh cn nhn dng h thng ngun nc, nh gi ng thi ca h
thng v c cc thng tin cn thit ra quyt nh ng. Thc cht quy hoch
ngun nc l tm kim phng n hp l nhm tha mn nhu cu v nc. c mt
quyt nh hp l, ngi ra quyt nh cn x l mt khi lng ln cc thng tin v
h thng, l mt cng vic kh khn v tiu tn nhiu thi gian i vi ngi ra
quyt nh. ra quyt nh, ngi ra quyt nh cn phn tch cc thng tin v h
thng trn c s cc s liu thu thp c, thit b x l thng tin, m hnh phn
tch ng thi h thng v cng c tr gip ra quyt nh. Theo Larry W. Mays:
Water Resource Handbook, McGraw-Hill, 1996, ISBN 0 07 04 1150 6, qu trnh phn
tch ra quyt nh c th m t theo s trn hnh (6-1).

Hnh 6-1: S qu trnh phn tch ra quyt nh
Larry W. Mays:Water Resource Handbook, McGraw-Hill, 1996, ISBN 0 07 04 1150 6

M hnh

Ngi ra
quyt nh
Phn tch
Thit b x l
thng tin
Cng c
ra quyt nh
S liu
Trc y, vic phn tch h thng ngi ra quyt nh thng ch da vo
nhng s liu hn ch v s cng, cng c ra quyt nh v thit b x l thng tin b
hn ch v khng c s lin kt gia cc ni dung c m t trn hnh 6-1, ta gi
l phng php truyn thng. Vi nhng h thng phc tp v tn ti nhiu yu t bt
nh nh h thng ngun nc th phng php truyn thng rt hn ch n cht
lng ca vic ra quyt nh. Trong nhng nm gn y, vi mc ch nng cao cht
lng ca qu trnh ra quyt nh ngi ta pht trin mt phng php mi c gi
l h thng tr gip ra quyt nh. S pht trin hng nghin cu trn y da trn c
s nhng tin b khoa hc trong lnh vc cng ngh thng tin, tin hc, cng c v
phng php tnh ton hin i.
H thng h tr ra quyt nh (Decision Support System - DSS) cung cp phng
tin cho cc nh ra quyt nh c th tc ng trc tip n c s d liu v m hnh
phn tch h thng.

Hnh 6-2: S m t chu trnh nh hng m hnh DSS
Lucks, D.P and J.R Costa (eds.) (1990): Decission Support Systems: Water Resourses
Planning. Proc. of ARD. Vidago (Porlugal), Springer-Verlag (ISBN-0.38753097.5).

Pht trin DSS
Cc chng trnh
Kim tra &
s dng DSS
Thay i v
iu chnh
S phn tch
Ngi phn tch
Quan im ca ngi s
dng v h thng v cc
vn h thng
Ngi s dng
Cc chng trnh ca M hnh v h
thng v cc vn ca h thng
M hnh ca ngi s
dng v h thng
Bt u
Thit lp DSS
Quan im ca ngi phn tch v
h thng v cc vn ca h thng
DSS

Lucks D.P a ra nh ngha nh sau:
H thng h tr ra quyt nh - DSS l mt h thng gm cc chng trnh c s
d liu, cc m hnh xp x ton hc ti u hoc m hnh m phng cng vi cc thut
ton tng ng c thit lp lin quan n mt vn c th, mt a im hoc mt
vng c th nhm tr gip cho vic tham kho, quy hoch, qun l, vn hnh, thit
k cng nh vic ra quyt nh x l cc tranh chp ca cc yu cu s dng ti
nguyn nc Lucks, D.P and J.R Costa (eds.) (1990): Decission Support Systems:
Water Resourses Planning. Proc. of ARD. Vidago (Porlugal), Springer-Verlag (ISBN
0.38753097.5).
H thng h tr trong mt ti liu khc c nh ngha nh sau:
H thng h tr ra quyt nh - DSS l mt h thng thng tin tng hp bao gm
cc phn cng (hardware), mng li thng tin, c s d liu, c s m hnh, cc phn
mm (software) v nhng ngi s dng DSS nhm thu thp tng hp thng tin phc
v cho vic ra quyt nh (cc nh ra quyt nh).
H thng h tr ra quyt nh DSS kt hp vic s dng cc m hnh v cc k
thut phn tch vi vic nh gi truyn thng. Vic thit lp DSS nhm mc ch d
dng s dng trong mt hon cnh c s tc ng qua li v c th thch nghi vi s
thay i ca mi trng cng nh s tip cn cc quyt nh ca ngi s dng. Ngoi
ra, nng cao hiu qu v mt kinh t, DSS cng c th tng cng hiu qu v mt
qun l bng vic s dng phn tch c iu kin.
Trn s hnh 6-3 ch r s khc bit ca phng php truyn thng v DSS.

Phng php truyn thng DSS (Decision Support System)
- Nhng vn c cu trc r rng
- S dng phng php tinh ton n gin
- Cu trc cng nhc
- Thng tin hn ch

- C th nng cao cht lng quyt nh
bng cch lm r rng s liu th
- Nhng vn khng c cu trc r rng
- S dng cc m hnh
- Cu trc c tng tc qua li
- C kh nng s dng thch nghi do thng tin
c cp nht thng xuyn
- C th nng cao cht lng quyt nh trn
c s s dng m hnh ton v cc phn
mm tr gip ra quyt nh
Hnh 6-3: S khc nhau gia phng php truyn thng v DSS

Thc cht qu trnh ra quyt nh l qu trnh phn tch h thng c tr gip
bi DSS. i vi cc bi ton quy hoch v qun l ngun nc th m hnh m phng
v m hnh ti u ho l rt cn thit. Nhng m hnh ton ang c s dng rng ri
hin nay trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc u c xy dng theo dng cu
trc ca DSS.
Qu trnh phn tch h thng ra quyt nh vi s h tr ca DSS c th m t
trn hnh 6-1.
6.2. H thng h tr ra quyt nh trong quy hoch v qun l
ngun n- c

H thng h tr ra quyt nh c thit lp phc v cho cng tc qun l nhiu
ngnh k thut khc nhau. Mi mt lnh vc k thut hoc i tng cn qun l c yu
cu ring v vic thit lp DSS. H thng h tr ra quyt nh hin c ng dng rng
ri trong lnh vc quy hoch v qun l ngun nc c nhng mng chnh nh sau:
1. C s d liu ca h thng
2. Cc m hnh h thng (c coi l cng c phn tch h thng)
3. H thng thng tin v x l thng tin
4. Cc phn mm
Cc mng trn thng c lin kt vi nhau trong mt phn mm qun l iu
hnh hoc cc m hnh ton v h thng.

Hnh 6-4: Cu trc v mi lin kt gia cc khi ca DSS
Loucks, D.P. 1991. Computer Aided Decission Support in Water Resources Planning and
Management. In Loucks D.P. and J.R. Costa (eds), Decission Support Systems: Water
Resources Planning: Proceedings from the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on
Computer-Aided Support Systems for Water Resources, Researc and Management.
Ericeria, Portugal 24-28 September, 1990.
Xc lp thng tin
C s d liu
H thng thng tin a l GIS
Cng c nh gi
Chn tiu chun nh gi
Xy dng kch bn
Kim tra nh gi
Cng c x l thng tin
M phng h thng (m hnh
m phng)
M hnh ti u


Larry W. Mays a ra cu trc tng qut ca h thng DSS (xem hnh 6-4)
gm nhng khi chnh nh sau:
Cng c nh gi bao gm: chn tiu chun nh gi, xy dng kch bn v
kim tra nh gi.
Xc lp thng tin bao gm c s d liu v h thng thng tin a l GIS.
Cng c x l thng tin bao gm: M phng h thng, v m hnh ti u.

Rene F.Reitsma, Edith A.Zagona (eds.) trn c s tng hp nhng cng trnh
cng b v DSS a ra lc tng qut xy dng h thng h tr ra quyt nh
gm 8 bc nh sau:
(1) Xc nh s cn thit ca phn tch h thng: trn c s xc nh nhng vn
cn thit phi phn tch, s b thit k h thng h tr ra quyt nh v d kin
nhng ti liu c lin quan cho vic thit k DSS.
(2) Xc lp cng, mc tiu v thit lp DSS: bao gm vic lng ho mc
tiu, la chn m hnh i vi bi ton t ra, thit lp cu trc ca DSS v xc lp GIS.
(3) Chi tit ho cc chc nng ca DSS thit lp.
(4) Chi tit ho cc phn mm (Software) ca DSS: Trn c s chi tit ho cc
chc nng ca DSS xy dng cc chng trnh, thut ton m t cc chc nng v hot
ng ca DSS, xy dng c s d liu v xy dng phn mm ca DSS.
(5) Pht trin DSS: y l bc khi qut ho v hon thin thit k DSS trn c
s nhng mc tiu v ni dung cn phi phn tch.
(6) Khi ng v th nghim: l s th nghim bn thit k DSS phn tch
tnh kh dng ca bn thit k.
(7) Kim tra v b sung cho DSS thit lp: trn c s kim tra vi h thng
thc kim tra kh nng lm vic v cht lng ca DSS, t b sung vo bn thit
k ca DSS.
(8) ng gi v tch hp.

6.2.1. C s d liu
C s d liu c lu gi nh mt phn mm Ngn hng d liu. Mun ny
ng vai tr ca mt c s d liu c chc nng lu tr, cho php cp nht (sa cha,
thm, bt) d liu. Cc loi d liu c qun l bao gm:
+ Cc ti liu kh tng-thu vn: Lng ma, lng bc hi, m khng kh
tng i, nhit khng kh, s gi nng, tc gi, lu lng, mc nc...
+ Cc ti liu lin quan n s dng nc: Khu ti, khu tiu, c tnh t ai,
c cu cy trng...
+ Ti liu v h thng cng trnh: H cha, cng iu tit, cng ly nc, trm
bm, knh mng, cc loi cng trnh khc nh cu mng, xiphng...
+ Ti liu dn sinh-kinh t v yu cu dng nc ca cc ngnh;
+ Ti liu vn hnh ti/tiu phng l... ca h thng;
+ Cc bn GIS (H thng thng tin a l) th hin cc loi s liu trn.
+ Ngoi ra, mt s loi ti liu nh h s thit k, quy hoch h thng, cc vn
bn php quy lin quan n h thng, quy trnh vn hnh, cc hnh nh v phim video
cng c qun l trong mun di dng cc trang HTML (ngn ng nh du siu
vn bn c s dng trn Internet).
Cc thng tin do mun qun l c cp nht tin li thng qua cc khung nhp
liu. Cc s liu lu gi trong ngn hng d liu c thit k sao cho c th trao i
thng tin phc v cho tng phn mm ng dng khc: m hnh m phng, phn tch
d liu v.v...
Chc nng ca ngn hng d liu phc v cho mc ch tra cu thng tin. Ngoi
ra, ngi s dng c th tra cu ton b cc thng tin trong c s d liu mt cch tu
bin thng qua tra cu trn cc bn GIS. Thng tin tra cu c th c th hin qua
cc bng biu, cc dng th hoc th hin trn bn GIS, cc dng h s v t liu
khc nh hnh nh, phim v.v...

6.2.2. M hnh ton
M hnh ton l mng quan trng trong h thng tr gip ra quyt nh. M hnh
ton bao gm m hnh m phng v cc m hnh ti u ho.
M hnh m phng c s dng phn tch h thng ngun nc theo cc tc
ng khc vo h thng. M hnh m phng bao gm cc m hnh thnh phn c
lin kt vi nhau hoc c sp xp thnh cc mun ring cu trc trong mt phn
mm chung. M hnh m phng h thng bao gm nhng m hnh tnh nhu cu nc,
chuyn ti nc trong h thng sng (m hnh thu vn, m hnh thu lc), m hnh
cht lng nc, m hnh tnh ton hiu qu kinh t...
M hnh ti u ho c s dng tnh ton v xc nh phng n ti u ca
bi ton quy hoch hoc iu hnh h thng.

6.2.3. H thng trao i thng tin
H thng truyn tin thng c thit lp trong qun l h thng ngun nc. H
thng trao i thng tin thng c thit k hot ng theo nguyn tc t ng ha.
H thng o c quan trc v trao i thng tin c thit k rt a dng ph
thuc vo cng c truyn tin (mng Intenet, k tht Raa, nh v tinh...). C th minh
ho cu trc ca h thng o c v trao i thng tin n gin di y (hnh 6-5,
6-6, 6-7).

H thng trao i thng tin c nhim v t ng truyn thng tin o c quan
trc, truyn cc lnh iu khin h thng. Cc thng tin ca h thng c lin kt vi
mng c s d liu v mng m hnh ton.
a. Thit b trao i thng tin c th l hu tuyn hay v tuyn
H thng truyn tin dng v tuyn c m t trn hnh 6-5 v 6-6. Tnh nng
hot ng ca h thng nh sau:
- Tt c cc thit b phn cng u phi c chng trnh iu khin (Driver)
truyn/nhn thng tin di dng m v s: bao gm cc thng tin o c, cc d liu
h thng v cc lnh iu khin.
- Truyn thng tin o ti trm o theo thi gian quy nh di dng s ca cc
c trng mc nc, ma, m khng kh v.v...
- Cc thit b phi c chc nng truyn tin theo dng truyn s cc d liu,
truyn lnh iu khin, truyn tp thng tin ca cc d liu lu d t trm o v
trung tm v ngc li.
- Ch truyn thng tin v lu gi thng tin trong thit b o nn c quy nh
theo ch o cc c trng kh tng thy vn v cc c trng khc ca h thng.
- Mt tp tin truyn t trm o v trung tm v ngc li phi bao gm m c
trng c truyn, m ca c trng thi gian tng ng, gi tr ca c trng v a
ch trao i thng tin.
b. S lin kt gia mng phn cng v phn mm

B. SO

S 3-3: S lin kt ti trm o

My thu pht

My tnh
Driver my thu
pht
Thit b
o
Driver
thit b o
Phn mm
Thit b lu d
thng tin

Hnh 6-5: S lin kt ti trm o
Ti trm o: My tnh ti trm o s c ci t phn mm c s d liu, c
chc nng lu tr s liu o c ti trm o v cp nht cc thng tin khc ca h
thng ti vng qun l ca trm o.

Seial port

B. SO

3-4

My thu pht

My tnh
Driver my thu
pht
Bng
in t
Driver
bng in
t o
Phn mm
Thit b lu d
thng tin

Hnh 6-6: S lin kt ti trung tm

S lin kt ti trm o c trnh by trn hnh 6-5. S c cc thnh phn
lin kt sau:
Mt Driver thit b o c chc nng thu tin t thit b o v:
- Chuyn thng thng tin qua Driver ca my pht pht tin v trung tm
- Chuyn thng tin trc tip vo Phn mm my tnh.

Mt Driver my pht c chc nng:
- Chuyn thng cc thng tin thu nhn t trung tm vo phn mm iu hnh
(Khi my tnh ang lm vic) hoc chuyn qua thit b lu d thng tin chuyn vo
my tnh khi my tnh bt u lm vic.
- Chuyn thng tin t trm o v qua phn mm my tnh v trung tm.
- Chuyn trc tip cc thng tin o c ca thit b o v trung tm.
Mt Thit b lu d thng tin c chc nng lu d thng tin truyn v t trung
tm khi my tnh trm o khng lm vic v t ng chuyn thng tin thu c vo
phn mm iu hnh khi my tnh bt u lm vic.

B ni trung tm (HUB)
Trm 1 Trm 2 Trm 3
RAS
Mng trm o
Mng ni vi trung tm
Hnh 6-7: H thng truyn tin hu tuyn

.....
Cc trm lm vic t xa
Bng hin th
thng tin
(mn hnh
My ch
My in trn mng
My trm ti Trung tm

Mng cc b (LAN)
tai Trung tm
iu khin
Ti trung tm: My tnh ti trung tm s c ci t phn mm H iu hnh cng
Ngn hng d liu, c chc nng thc hin cc kt qu tnh ton cc phng n iu
hnh, lu tr s liu o c v cc d liu khc truyn v t cc trm o, cp nht cc
thng tin khc ca h thng v pht cc mnh lnh t trung tm ti cc trm o. S
lin kt ti trung tm c trnh by trn hnh 6-6. S c cc thnh phn lin kt sau:
Mt Driver ca my thu pht c chc nng:
- Chuyn thng cc thng tin thu nhn t cc trm o vo phn mm iu hnh
ca my trung tm (Khi my tnh ang lm vic) hoc chuyn qua thit b lu d
thng tin chuyn vo my tnh trung tm khi my tnh bt u lm vic.
- Chuyn thng tin t trm o qua Driver bng in t n Bng in t.
- Chuyn thng tin iu khin n cc trm o.

Mt Driver ca bng in t c chc nng chuyn thng tin t cc trm o
hoc t phn mm iu hnh ti trung tm n bng in t. H thng truyn tin v
tuyn c cu trc gm mt mng rng v mt mng ni b (xem hnh 6-7).

6.2.4. Phn mm h tr ra quyt nh
Phn mm h tr ra quyt nh c thit k theo nguyn tc lin kt tt c cc
mng ca h thng h tr ra quyt nh. Trong thc t, phn mm tr gip ra quyt
nh trong quy hoch v qun l ngun nc thng c nhng mng chnh nh sau:
- M hnh m phng h thng
- C s d liu c chc nng lu tr s liu phc v tra cu v c lin kt vi
m hnh m phng phc v tnh ton. C s d liu c lin kt vi h thng
thng tin a l (GIS).
Hin nay, nhng m hnh ton h thng nh m hnh ISIS, MIKE11, HEC-
RESIM v.v... u c xy dng theo nguyn tc H thng h tr ra quyt nh, bi
vy rt tin dng cho ngi s dng trong qu trnh ra quyt nh.


ti liu tham kho

[1] Branislav Djordjevic: Cybernetics in Water Resources Management, Water
Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, Colorado,1993, ISBN 0 918334 82 9.
[2] Biswas, A.K, Jellali, M., and Stout G.E., (eds.) (1993): Water for Sustainable
Development in the TWenty-fist Century, oxford University Press (ISBN 0 19 563303 4).
[3] Goodman,A.S. Principles of Water Resources Planing. Prentise-Hall, Inc, 1984,
ISBN 0 137 10616 5.
[4] Daniel P. Louks, Jery R. Stedinger, Dougias A. Haith: Water Resource Systemt
Planning and Analysis, International Institute for Hydraulic and Environmental
Engineering, Delft, the Netherlands,1981, ISBN 0 139 45923 5.
[5] Larry W. Mays:Water Resource Handbook, McGraw-Hill, 1996, ISBN 0 07 04 1150 6.
[6] Mays L.W., Tung Y.K., Hydrosystems engineering and management, McGraw-
Hill, Inc, 1992,ISBN 0 070 41146 7.
[7] Loucks, D.P. 1991. Computer Aided Decission Support in Water Resources
Planning and Management. In Loucks D.P. and J.R. Costa (eds), Decission Support
Systems: Water Resources Planning: Proceedings from the NATO Advanced
Research Workshop on Computer-Aided Support Systems for Water Resources,
Researc and Management. Ericeria, Portugal 24-28 September, 1990.
[8] Grigg N.S., Water Resources Management: Principles, Regulations, and Cases,
McGraw-Hill,1996. ISBN 0 070 41146 7.
[9] James, L.D and Lee, R.R: Economics of Water Resource Planning, McGraw-
Hill,1996. Library of Congress No 79 115146.
[10] Loucks, D.P, Stedinger, J.R: Water Resources Systems Planning and Analysis,
Prentice-Hiall,1981. (ISBN: 0 139 45923 5).
[11] World Bank (1993): Water Resource Planning, A World Bank Policy Paper.
The World Ba. Washington, D.C.
[12] Bo co nng nghip. D n qui hoch tng th ng bng sng Hng (VIE
89/034), H Ni, 2-1993.
[13] Bo co D n no vt sng Ninh c, B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn,
H Ni, 4- 2001.
[14] Bo co v kinh t vng ng bng sng Hng. D n qui hoch tng th ng
bng sng Hng (VIE 89/034), H Ni, 2-1994.
[15] Chow V.T., David R. Maidment v Larry W. Mays, Thu vn ng dng,
Hu Thnh v Vn Ton dch, Nh xut bn Gio dc, 1994.
[16] N. N. Moi xeep: Cc vn ton hc trong phn tch h thng, Nayka -
Mascova, 1981.
[17] E.P .Galianhin: Ti u ha trong phn phi nc cho h thng ti. Leningrat - 1981.
[18] B. G. Priazinskaia: M hnh ton trong lnh vc ngun nc, Nayka - Mascova, 1985.
[19] Vit Nam - nh gi tng quan ngnh thy li, Bo co chnh do WB, ADB,
FAO, UNDP, NGO v IWRP lp, 1996.
Nh xut bn Nng Nghip
167/6 - Phng Mai - ng a - H Ni
T: 8524506 - 8523887 Fax: (04) 5760748
Email: NXB.Nongnghiep.BT3@gmail.com
Chi nhnh NXB Nng Nghip
58 Nguyn Bnh Khim - Q.1, TP. H Ch Minh
T: 8297157 - 8299521 Fax: (08) 9101036

Chu trch nhim xut bn:
NGUYN CAO DOANH
Ph trch bn tho:
PHAM KH - HOANG NAM BNH
Trnh by ba:
NGOC NAM

M s:
-
- -
-
63 630
642
06
223
NN 2006

In 520 bn kh 19 x 27 cm ti Xng in NXB Nng nghip. Giy chp nhn ng k
k hoch xut bn s 08-2006/CXB/642-223/NN do Cc Xut bn cp ngy 15/12/2005.
In xong v np lu chiu qu I/2006.

Quyhoach&quanlynguonnuoc

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Quyhoach&quanlynguonnuoc

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Trng i hc Thy li

GS. TS. H Vn Khi

Trong : E(t) - nng lng in nhn c ti thi im t.

+ l h s tnh quy i chi ph v li ch v thi

y l bi ton s dng ti u ngun nc khi h thng cng trnh c xy

Chng 4- M hnh ha... 77

min ( max) (5-26)

vi i =1, 2,..., n (5-46)

D < , chng t hng d tm ng, ta c nh im v d tm cho

D , hng d tm khng t, tc l ri vo tnh trng "tin thoi lng

D < . Hng d tm t yu cu v c nh im chn:

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