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Robeii }eivis, Columbia Univeisiiy


i may be useful io mail ile addiiion of Secuiiiy Siudies io ile H-Diplo lisi by
discussing some of ile diffeiences in ile way lisioiians and poliiical scieniisis
iypically appioacl oui common subjeci maiiei.
:
Is ii ioo mucl io say ilai oui
ielaiions aie symbioiic oi even ilai we aie doomed io a maiiiage? Alilougl we lave
significani diffeiences and ofien squabble, we noi only need io siay iogeilei foi ile sale
of ile lids (i.e., oui siudenis), bui wlile we someiimes do noi wani io aclnowledge ii, we
diaw gieai susienance and even pleasuie fiom eacl oilei. Fiom ile poliiical science
side, ii seems io me ilai ile invesimeni and affeciions aie a bii asymmeiiic in ilai mosi
of us see ile gieai impoiiance of inieinaiional lisioiy,

wlile lisioiians diaw less fiom
poliiical science and someiimes lave ile iemeiiiy io doubi ile value of ile discipline. In
my lasi yeai of giaduaie siudies ai Beileley I iool a fine couise on Euiopean inieinaiional
lisioiy by ile ienowned Raymond Soniag. I veiy mucl enjoyed and leained fiom ile
couise, bui wlen I ialled io lim aboui diawing on lisioiy foi my disseiiaiion, wlile le
iieaied me wiil gieai peisonal lindness, le made cleai ilai le ieally didn'i see wly
poliiical science was needed and loped ilai I would noi mucl up lis field. On ile oilei
land, many lisioiians lave noi only ioleiaied and even encouiaged oui iniiusions, iley
lave diawn on oui ileoiies. Foi all oui diffeiences, we slaie a fascinaiion wiil ile
paiieins, idiosynciasies, and clanges in cioss-boidei ielaiions.
We boil wani io explain inieinaiional lisioiy. Wlen I said ilis ai ile H-Diplo
confeience ai Williams College lasi spiing, Randy Sclwellei objecied ilai poliiical
scieniisis seel io develop and iesi ileoiies iailei ilan io explain evenis. I do noi eniiiely
disagiee, bui would ieply ilai alilougl we lave diffeiences in oui siance iowaids facis
and geneializaiions, poliiical scieniisis wani io develop ileoiies ilai aie noi only
paisimonious and iooied in geneial social science, bui ilai sled ligli on (i.e., explain ai
leasi in paii) evenis and paiieins in inieinaiional lisioiy.


i
Tlis papei giows oui of iemails given io open ile fiisi H-Diplo Confeience on New Sclolaislip
in Ameiican Foieign Relaiions, leld on iy-iS Apiil :ooq ai Williams College, and I lave pieseived ile
infoimal ione of ile occasion. An eailiei veision was posied on H-Diplo on i }une :ooq ai: liip:]]www.l-
nei.oig]-diplo]williams:ooq .

:
I will pui aside leie quesiions of ile sianding of eacl of ilese fields in iis own discipline. Tlese
aie familiai if soiiy sioiies ilai I ilinl lave ileii ioois in inielleciual iiends wiilin eacl discipline and ile
poliiical cioss-cuiienis in ile academy and ile widei socieiy.

I will use ile ieims inieinaiional lisioiy and diplomaiic lisioiy inieiclangeably, alilougl of
couise one could aigue ilai ile foimei is bioadei ilan ile laiiei, wlicl "only" focuses on siaie-io-siaie
ielaiions. To pull on ilis iliead would be inieiesiing, bui a digiession leie. Foi some discussion, see ile
H-Diplo iliead, eniiiled "Teiminologydiplomaiic lisioiy, inieinaiional lisioiy, and iiansnaiionalism"
ilai siaiied on Tlu, iq Maicl :ooq. Tle fiisi posi is available via liip:]]bii.ly]cfIW(z ; ile iesi of ile
iliead is available in ile discussion logs foi Maicl |liip:]]bii.ly]qnMyXj and Apiil |liip:]]bii.ly]bGQAsTj.
I
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Tleie aie impoiiani diffeiences in siyle, aesileiics, and appioacles, and my biief
iemails can laidly do jusiice io all of ilem. Bui a minoi poini may be woiil maling ai
ile siaii. Ii seems io many of us in poliiical science ilai lisioiians aie gluiions foi
punislmeni, and we maivel ai ileii linguisiic compeience and abiliiy io peneiiaie and
synilesize enoimous amounis of maieiial. Yeais ago, I was ialling io my good fiiend Bob
Dallel aboui wleilei le was going io iale a bieal now ilai le lad finisled ile
enoimous effoii of pioducing lis iwo-volume biogiaply of Lyndon }olnson. He said le
lad oiiginally planned io, "bui I jusi leained ilai iley aie opening a million new pages of
maieiial on Kennedy, and I jusi can'i iesisi." Mosi of us in poliiical science would lave a
quiie a diffeieni ieaciion, bui we aie veiy glad ilai Bob and lis colleague pioduce sucl
bools.

Tleie is a peilaps associaied diffeience beiween ile sclolais in ileii siance iowaid facis.
I do noi wani io gei inio ile difficuli and impoiiani quesiion of wlai exacily we mean by
facis, wleilei iley can exisi independenily of oui inieipieiaiions, and ielaied issues of
episiemology and oniology. Bui foi all ile debaie, eveiyone agiees boil ilai facis do noi
speal foi ilemselves and ilai noi all inieipieiaiions lave equal claims on oui beliefs.
Tlai said, Sclwellei's poini is ielevani leie. Poliiical scieniisis geneially seel ileoiies of
some geneialiiy and in puisuii of ilem ile field las piovided license io do some bui noi
unlimiied injusiice io facis and individual cases. Tleie is no easy way io sum up
communiiy noims leie, and I will jusi say ilai wlile poliiical scieniisis cannoi give ile
facis ile iliid degiee io gei ilem io iell us wlai we need foi oui ileoiies, we can iougl
ilem up a bii. We slould be awaie of wlai we aie doing, lowevei, and aleii oui ieadeis
of ilis, ialing special caie io poini ilem io alieinaiive inieipieiaiions. Since we aie ofien
painiing in bioadei siioles and looling foi ways io explain a gieai deal wiil a ielaiively
few faciois and ielaiionslips, we can uiilize undeisiandings of lisioiy ilai simplify and
iiim ii. In ilis way, poliiical scieniisis lave someiling in common wiil posimodeinisis
in oui willingness io diaw on inieipieiaiions ilai we lnow aie paiiial and coniesied.
Indeed, in some cases we can be lappy io iale coniesied facis and inieipieiaiions as
lypoileiicals. Tlus even if Geimany sougli a wai in iqi( iailei ilan being diagged inio
ii by iis wealei ally, Ausiiia-Hungaiy, poliiical scieniisis can use ile laiiei inieipieiaiion
as an example of ile peinicious dynamics ilai can be ai woil in a muliipolai sysiem,
especially one in wlicl a siiong siaie las become dependeni on a wealei one.

Tle giound-iules aie noi eniiiely cleai leie, bui wlaievei iley aie, iley aie diffeieni
fiom ilose goveining lisioiians. Well, mosi lisioiians. Ii seems io me ilai A. }. P.
Tayloi was a poliiical scieniisi in ilis iegaid, mucl as le would be loiiified by ile
ilougli. As I iead lis maivelous bools, iley appeai io iesemble poliiical science in
being leavily ilesis-diiven and even ileoiy-diiven. Tle facis aie pusled, pulled, and
iwisied io fii lis fascinaiing aigumeni, and ilis is as iiue of lis fiisi majoi bool,
Germony's First BiJ for Colonies as ii is of lis (in)famous Tbe Oriqins of tbe SeconJ VorlJ
Vor. As wiong as le is aboui boil cases, le noi only siimulaied sclolais io go deepei
inio ile maieiial io slow lis eiiois, le also developed impoiiani ideas ilai may be
fiuiiful even if iley do noi apply in ilese cases.
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IMPORTANCE OF CHRONOLOGY

Tle passage of iime is ceniial io lisioiy and so ii is noi suipiising ilai mosi lisioiical
siudies aie buili aiound clionology. Tlis is noi io say ilai ilese accounis simply pui one
iling afiei anoilei, bui ilai undeisianding low posiiions develop and clange and low
ielaiions evolve oi unfold iliougl iime is ceniial io ile lisioiian's iasl. Hisioiy is a
sioiy, and alilougl we someiimes iell sioiies oui of clionological oidei io aclieve
vaiious effecis, mosi of ilem lave a beginning, a middle, and an end, even if ile cloice of
siaiiing and siopping poinis is noi easy and is consequeniial, as I will noie below. To ile
exieni ilai lisioiians aie expliciily conceined wiil causaiion, ile undeilying iaiionale foi
ilis appioacl is cleai: ile evenis, aiiiiudes, and siiuciuies exisiing ai one poini in iime
influence if noi deieimine ilose ilai come laiei.

Poliiical scieniisis geneially do ii quiie diffeienily. Regaidless of wleilei iley use case
siudies oi siaiisiical daia (wlai aie lnown as laige-N siudies), iley geneially use ile
compaiaiive meilod io gei ai causaiion. Tle basic episiemology follows }oln Siuaii Mill
in iiying io deieimine ile effeci of a vaiiable (a ieim ilai puis mosi lisioiians' ieeil on
edge) by compaiing cases (anoilei ieim ilai lisioiians dislileiley aie siudying people,
piocesses, and evenis in ilemselves, noi as cases) in wlicl ii is pieseni oi las assumed
one value wiil cases in wlicl ii is abseni oi diffeieni. Tle iieaimeni of cases ilemselves
may be clionological, bui ile exeicise is in seivice of compaiisons io oilei cases. Laiei I
will discuss ile viiiues of ile compaiaiive meilod ilai lisioiians someiimes miss, bui
leie wani io noie pioblems wiil compaiisons of wlicl lisioiians aie fully awaie.
Poliiical scieniisis iiy io lool ai cases ilai aie ile same excepi foi a diffeience on one
dimension wlose significance iley wisl io piobe, and laige-N siudies esseniially do ile
same iling wiil soplisiicaied siaiisiical meilods designed io measuie ile influence of
eacl facioi. Boil slaie ile assumpiions ilai ile cases aie independeni of one anoilei.
Someiimes iley aie. Bui wlen we aie dealing wiil a seiies of inieiaciions beiween io
couniiies, oi insiances in wlicl couniiies lave been obseiving wlai oileis aie doing,
ilis may noi be ile case. Laiei inieiaciions may iuin oui as iley did noi because of ile
vaiiables poliiical scieniisis aie focusing on, bui because ciiizens oi decision-maleis
obseived ile couise of pievious inieiaciions and adjusied ileii belavioi accoidingly. To
iale a ciude example, a siaie may siand fiim (oi bacl down) in one confioniaiion noi
because of ile "undeilying" vaiiables poliiical scieniisis aie pione io lool ai, bui because
of lessons (peilaps incoiieci) diawn fiom pievious ciises.

Poliiical scieniisis do noi eniiiely slun clionology. Siaiisiical fixes can be deployed,
ileie is quiie a bii of woil on leaining, and some poliiical scieniisis lave siiessed ile
impoiiance of "pail-dependence"ile way in wlicl cloices and evenis can sei enduiing
paiieins. Bui ii is neveiileless ile case ilai ile compaiaiive meilod is diilled inio ilem
in giaduaie sclool (oi peilaps ii is an affiniiy wiil ilis appioacl ilai las diawn ilem io
ile discipline), and clionology is iaiely ile baclbone of ileii analysis.

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Relaied io clionology is someiling ilai is moie an issue and a quesiion ilan ii is a divide
beiween ile iwo disciplines. Tlis is ile impoiiance (oi lacl ileieof) of iuining-poinis
and iiieveisibiliiy. Hisioiians ofien discuss ile foimei expliciily, bui demonsiiaiing ileii
exisience is noioiiously difficuli and ile ielaied quesiion of iiieveisibiliiy is discussed
even less fiequenily. Tle esseniial aigumeni las io be ilai ceiiain evenis move a
ielaiionslip oi ile couise of lisioiy in a diieciion fiom wlicl ii is difficuli io be
dislodged. Tle Obama adminisiiaiion las iiied io pusl ile "iesei" buiion in Russian-
Ameiican ielaiions. Tle new adminisiiaiion las indeed ieveised oi clanged some of ile
pievious policies, bui is a iiue iesei possible? Oi, iailei, undei wlai condiiions is ii
possible? We lacl ile memoiy-eiasing device used so well in Men in Block. Ai ile end of
a "conveisaiion" in wlicl Diiecioi of Ceniial Inielligence }oln McCone beiaied an
Assisiani Secieiaiy of Defense ovei ile laiiei's iefusal io giani CIA sufficieni influence
ovei inielligence saielliies, ile Assisiani Secieiaiy said: "Mi. McCone, lei's foigei aboui
ilis wlole episode, please."
(

All we can gei, lowevei, is an agieemeni io pieiend ilai we
will foigei, wlicl is a pale imiiaiion of foigeiiing, if noi a negaiion of ii. Some clanges
can be ieveised only wiil gieai difficuliy, if ai all. Tlus many people would lile ile
Obama adminisiiaiion io picl up ielaiions wiil oilei couniiies as iley weie in }anuaiy
:ooi. Bui ile inieivening yeais cannoi be wiped oui. Foi example, ii is possible io aigue
ilai if Busl lad coniinued ile Clinion policies le could lave ended Noiil Koiea's
nucleai and missile piogiams bui io also conclude ilai Noiil Koiean policies,
piefeiences, and beliefs lave now clanged, paiily in iesponse io wlai Busl did and paiily
as a iesuli of faciois in Koiean domesiic poliiics, in a way ilai las ended ilis
oppoiiuniiy. Tlis is noi io say ilai evenis always naiiow ile iange of possible cloices; in
oilei cases ii can widen ilem. Wlai is impoiiani is ilai ile sensiiiviiy io clanges ovei
iime slould aleii us io ile impoiiance of iuining poinis and iiieveisibiliiy. Hisioiians
may be quiclei io see ile impoiiance of ilis, bui ii is faii game foi all of us.
Anoilei aspeci of ile impoiiance of clionology is ile iole of iiming. Tleie aie iliee
aieas of inieiesi leie. Fiisi, sclolais, membeis of ile inieiesied public, and diplomais
ofien asl wleilei ile iime is iipe foi a seiilemeni, and alilougl slowing wleilei oi noi
ilis is ile case is exiiemely difficuli (excepi by iesoiiing io ciiculai ieasoning in wlicl
ile piesence oi absence of a seiilemeni slows wleilei oi noi ile iime was iipe), ile
iopic is cleaily impoiiani foi analyses of wleilei ileie weie missed oppoiiuniiies and
ile opposiie side of ile coinwleilei piemaiuie diplomaiic iniiiaiives lave made ilings
woise.

Tle second caiegoiy is ielaied bui bioadei. Decision-maleis and commeniaiois ofien
believe ilai a policy, aci, oi iniiiaiive can be effeciive if launcled ai ile iigli iime and
ineffeciive oileiwise. Someiimes ile ley quesiion is wlai slould come fiisi, as in ile
ieceni aigumeni beiween Piime Minisiei Neianyalu and Piesideni Obama ovei wleilei

(
Depaiimeni of Siaie, Foreiqn Relotions of tbe UniteJ Stotes, i6-i68, Vol. XXXIII, Oiganizaiion
and Managemeni of U.S. Foieign Policy (Waslingion, D.C., :oo(), (:i.

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piogiess in negoiiaiions beiween Isiael and ile Palesiinians would faciliiaie an
agieemeni wiil Iian (because ile foimei would male ii easiei foi Aiab siaies io pui
piessuie on Iian) oi wleilei ile oidei slould be ieveised (because Iian is ile moie
piessing dangei and geiiing ii oui of ile nucleai business would male ii mucl easiei io
seiile oilei issues in ile Middle Easi). Moie geneially, an expiessed willingness io
negoiiaie can lead io fiuiiful ialls if and only if ile oilei side is ieady; a ilieai may be
inappiopiiaie if made ioo soon and ineffeciive if made ioo laie, bui can convey ile
desiied message if ii comes ai ile iigli iime; a concession ilai would be ialen as a sign
of wealness if made ioo eaily oi iigli afiei ile oilei side las ialen a belligeieni aciion
can lead io iecipiocaiion if ii comes on ile leels of fiimness on oilei issues. Saddam
Hussein's offeis on Kuwaii in iqqi weie always "a day laie and a dollai sloii," and ile faci
ilai we lave a saying foi ilis plenomenon indicaies iis pievalence. Had le expiessed a
willingness io wiildiaw eailiei, le could lave avoided a miliiaiy defeai and lepi lis
foices iniaci. Despiie eiiois lile ilis, leadeis ofien piide ilemselves on ileii sense of
iiming, and Neville Clambeilain's leiieis io lis sisieis aie filled wiil self-congiaiulaioiy
siaiemenis aboui lis slill in ilis iegaid and wiil claims ilai Hiilei las "missed ile bus."

On ile oilei side of ilis coin, A.}. P. Tayloi aigued ilai Hiilei "became involved |sicj in
wai iliougl launcling on :q Augusi a diplomaiic manoeuvie wlicl le ougli io lave
launcled on :S Augusi."
6

Tlai I would join wiil mosi lisioiians in iejeciing ilese claims
is noi inconsisieni wiil aiguing ilai iley aie geiiing ai an aspeci of inieiaciion ilai is
veiy impoiiani, iaiely ile subjeci of explicii analysis, and laid io ileoiize aboui.
Timing enieis in anoilei way as well, one ilai las been be of moie inieiesi io poliiical
scieniisis. Tlis is ile exieni io wlicl iiming pioblems can inlibii agieemenis and,
ielaiedly, ile way in wlicl cieaiive negoiiaiois can consiiuci agieemenis io suimouni
ilese luidles. Tle basic pioblem is ilai in many cases eacl side wanis ile oilei io go
fiisi. Tlis is iiue in iwo senses. Eacl wanis ile oilei io iale ile iniiiaiive in opening
negoiiaiions, liniing ai ile possibiliiy of a soluiion, oi maling offeis of possible
concessions. Tle ieason is ilai alilougl ilese sieps can lead io agieemeni if iley aie
iecipiocaied, iley also may be ialen by ile oilei side as signs of wealness and may lead
ii io iouglen iis posiiion, puiiing ile siaie ai a baigaining disadvaniage oi even placing
an agieemeni beyond ieacl. As wiil missed oppoiiuniiies, ii is laid io deieimine low
many soluiions lave been desiioyed by ilis meclanism, bui ii is cleai ilai naiional
leadeis ofien lave iefused io iale diplomaiic iniiiaiives oui of feai ilai doing so would
male ilem appeai weal. An impoiiani iopic foi ieseaicl is low and wlen ilese feais
lave been oveicome and low diplomais lave been able io ciafi iniiiaiives ilai open ile
way foi fiuiiful negoiiaiions if ile oilei side so desiies wlile minimizing ile undesiied

Robeii Self, ed., Tbe Neville Cbomberloin letters, vol. (, Tbe Downinq Street Yeors, i-io
(Aldeisloi, :oo).

6
A. }. P. Tayloi, Tbe Oriqins of tbe SeconJ VorlJ Vor (New Yoil, iq6i), :6y.

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consequences if ile oilei seels exploiiaiion. Ambiguiiy and inieimediaiies can be useful
leie, bui of couise sucl signals lend ilemselves io being missed oi misinieipieied.
y


Tle oilei aspeci of ilis iiming pioblem is ilai in ile absence of enfoicemeni
meclanisms, siaies musi safeguaid againsi ile dangei ilai ile oilei side will cleai on
any agieemeni ilai las been ieacled. Eacl will ilen wani ile oilei io iale ile fiisi
sieps io caiiy ii oui in oidei io minimize ile clance ilai ile siaie will be exploiied and io
leave open ile possibiliiy foi ile siaie io exploii ile oilei. Tle basic iiicl in foimulaiing
an agieemeni is ilen io divide up iiansaciions inio a seiies of small sieps so ilai ieneging
ai any poini piovides liiile gain, and io develop sequences ilai build iiusi, piovide
iianspaiency inio wlai eacl side is doing, and ensuie ilai ai eacl siage eacl side las
inceniives io coniinue complying. All ilis is easiei said ilan done, of couise, and boil
lisioiians and poliiical scieniisis migli do well io devoie moie aiieniion io ilese
pioblems. Tley lelp iell us wlen and wly agieemenis aie ieacled, aleii us io ile iole of
diplomaiic cieaiiviiy, and could lelp siaies ieacl agieemenis in ile fuiuie. To iale jusi
one example, I suspeci ilai one ieason wly ile agieemenis beiween ile Busl
adminisiiaiion and Noiil Koiea fell apaii is ilai iley iequiied ile Noiil io piovide a full
accouniing of iis nucleai maieiials and piogiams ioo eaily in ile piocess. Complying
would lave given away mucl of ile Noiil's baigaining leveiage and ieduced ile
inceniives foi ile U.S. io comply wiil ile laiei siages of ile agieemeni.

Tle final aspeci of iiming quesiions is one ilai I adveiied io eailiei. Sclolaily analyses of
conflici lave io siaii ai some poini in iime. Bui ilis is ofien ile nub of ile dispuie boil
beiween sclolais and beiween ile couniiies. Tle fundamenial quesiion ofien is ile
same as ile one ilai comes up in ile playgiound oi beiween squabbling siblings: wlo
siaiied ii? Tle daie ilai you picl io begin youi analysis piedisposes an answei io ile
ciucial quesiion of iesponsibiliiy. Tle obvious iesponse io analysis ilai indicaies ilai
couniiy X was ai fauli in a dispuie by poiniing io wlai ii did ai a paiiiculai iime is ilai
ilis oveilools couniiy Y's pievious piovocaiion. In many cases, ilieais and losiiliiy
beiween iwo couniiies aie iecipiocaied, and diseniangling causes and effecis is exiiemely
difficuli. Tleie aie no simple ways io pioceed leie, and I will be conieni wiil ile geneial
poini ilai ii lelps io be awaie of ile pioblem.

GENERALIZATIONS AND COMPARISONS

Ii is ioo easy io say ilai lisioiians aie conceined wiil individual cases and poliiical
scieniisis seel geneializaiions. In faci, we cannoi undeisiand any a paiiiculai case
wiiloui implicii if noi explicii ideas aboui low siaies noimally belave, and
geneializaiions iesi on specific cases. Fuiileimoie, some lisioiians expliciily use ile
compaiaiive meilod, eiilei beiween cases oi wiilin a single one, as Einesi May did in lis
analysis of ile causes of Ameiican expansionism ai ile iuin of ile :o
il
ceniuiy.
S

y
Robeii }eivis, Tbe loqic of lmoqes in lnternotionol Relotions (Piinceion, iqyo), cl. .

S
Einesi May, Americon lmperiolism. A Speculotive Essoy (New Yoil, iq6S), especially -i6.
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Neveiileless, ile sieieoiype coniains a significani measuie of iiuil. I ilinl ii is noi jusi
my own disciplinaiy affiliaiion ilai leads me io believe ilai ile compaiaiive meilods can
be quiie useful, and indeed ofien aie necessaiy. Sclolais someiimes lool ai a paiiiculai
case oi ile belavioi of a paiiiculai couniiy and aiiiibuie causaiion io faciois unique io
ilose ciicumsiances oi couniiy. Tle conclusion may be coiieci, bui ii can be secuiely
ieacled only by looling ai oilei cases oi oilei couniiies. Tle obvious example is
Ameiican foieign policy undei Geoige W. Busl. To oveisimplify, many if noi mosi
analyses fall inio ile caiegoiies of ile good, ile bad, and ile ugly. Sclolais and analysis
wlo siiongly appiove of Busl's policies geneially see ilem as iooied in ile unusual
Ameiican commiimeni io libeiiy and ialing pieveniaiive aciions. Ciiiics, usually on ile
lefi, aiiiibuie ile belavioi io ile malign impeiaiives of ile Ameiican economic sysiem oi
io a sicl poliiical culiuie. Tle meilodological pioblem wiil boil claims is ilai iley do
noi compaie Ameiican belavioi io ilai of oilei couniiies in somewlai similai
ciicumsiances. I cannoi claim io lave done so sysiemaiically, bui my Realisi piocliviiies
lean me io ile aigumeni ilai ile U.S. is geneially belaving as gieai poweis lave done in
ile pasi wlen iley lave confionied siiuaiions ilai combine boil dangei and
oppoiiuniiy. Tle U.S. is noi paiiiculaily good oi paiiiculaily bad, inieinaiional poliiics
jusi is ugly. I would noi expeci sucl a bald siaiemeni io convince slepiics and lave
piovided ai leasi a bii of evidence foi ii elsewleie,
q

bui ii is laidei io dispuie ile
meilodological poini ilai aiiiibuiions of Ameiican belavioi io iis inieinal claiacieiisiics
iequiie compaiisons io ile belavioi of oilei couniiies.
Anoilei aspeci of ile uiiliiy of compaiisons and geneializaiions is iaised by ile peiennial
debaies ovei of nucleai weapons in ile ciucial iq(-iq(y peiiod. Alilougl lisioiians
aigue fieicely aboui wly Tiuman diopped ile bomb, iley apply esseniially ile same
ieclniques of lisioiical analysis, looling ai wlai Tiuman and oileis said and leaid, low
iley clanged (oi didn'i) in iesponse io new evenis and new infoimaiion, and wlai views
iley leld on subjecis sucl as Soviei inieniions and ile lilling of }apanese civilians.
Wlile I find ilese discussions fascinaiing, as a poliiical scieniisi I would appioacl ile
maiiei moie simply (giving lisioiians ile oppoiiuniiy io ieply ilai ilis is unlisioiical
and simple-minded). I would siaii wiil ile geneializaiion ilai unless ileie aie piessing
consideiaiions io ile coniiaiy, siaies involved in a ioial wai will use all ile weapons ai
ileii disposal. Tleie aie excepiions, of couise: Hiilei iefiained fiom using neive gas
duiing Woild Wai II because le misialenly believed ilai ile Allies lad developed ilis
weapon and would ieply in lind, and ile U.S. decision noi io use moie piimiiive bui siill
effeciive gases in ile lasi siages of ile wai againsi }apan is laidei io explain. Bui do we
find cases in wlicl a couniiy lad a new weapon of enoimous powei ilai migli ieiminaie
ile conflici on favoiable ieims and declined io use ii? I cannoi ilinl of any. Tle basic
meilodological poini is ilai, assuming ileie aien'i any oi ai leasi aien'i many sucl cases,


q
}eivis, Americon Foreiqn Policy in o New Ero (New Yoil, :oo6), q:-qS.

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ai one level I would noi see any ieason io go any fuiilei because ile explanaiion foi
Tiuman's belavioi is noiling peculiai io Tiuman, io ile U.S., oi io ile specific siiuaiion.
Railei ii is jusi anoilei insiance of ile pievailing ugly paiiein in inieinaiional poliiics.

Even if I am coiieci in ile geneializaiion, one can aigue aboui wleilei ii consiiiuies an
explanaiion and exploie ile ielaiions among geneializaiions, laws, and explanaiions.
Indeed, I can diedge up some faini memoiies of discussions of Hempel's "Coveiing Law"
aigumeni. Tlis is a laige iopic, and my only poini leie is ilai if my geneializaiion is
coiieci, ii siiongly implies ilai any leadei would lave diopped ile bomb even if many
oilei ciicumsiances lad been diffeieni, including conceins aboui ile Soviei Union. Of
couise ilis does noi exclude ile possibiliiy ilai ile desiie io limii ile Soviei gains fiom
ile wai oi io iniimidaie ile USSR weie also pieseni. Belavioi ofien seems and peilaps is
oveideieimined in ilai we can find muliiple impulses, any one of wlicl on iis own
aiguably could lave been sufficieni io lave pioduced ii: a peison can die afiei laving
been boil poisoned and sloi. Bui ilis peispeciive does say ilai ile aci of diopping ile
bomb is noi a puzzle, and I ilinl mucl of ile emoiional powei belind ile debaie lies in
ile implicii counieifaciual claim ilai abseni Soviei conceins Tiuman would lave
belaved diffeienily oi ilai a moie ilougliful leadei lile FDR would lave diawn bacl.

Tle failuie io biing ile aiom undei inieinaiional coniiol las similaily been ile siie of
fieice aigumenis, many of wlicl ievolve aiound ile iiadiiional and ievisionisi
explanaiions foi ile oiigins of ile Cold Wai, wiil ile aiiendani disiiibuiion of ile blame
beiween ile U.S. and ile USSR. My analysis again siaiis (and ends?) wiil an
inieinaiional poliiics geneializaiion. Alilougl Campbell Ciaig and Seigey Radclenlo
male an iniiiguing claim ilai Tiuman's posiiion laidened wlen le leained of ile Soviei
spying ai Los Alamos, I do noi find ilis necessaiy io explain wly le did noi male majoi
concessions oi wly ile negoiiaiions failed.
io
Wlen las a couniiy agieed io slaie iis
miliiaiy secieis, lei alone ile maieiial involved (wlicl would lave been moie valuable
ilan ile secieis, mosi of wlicl ile Sovieis lad oi could ieplicaie)? And wlen las
anoilei gieai powei agieed io give up ile puisuii of sucl a weapon? Ciaig and
Redclenlo male a somewlai similai aigumeni on page i, and ilis is implicii in Sean
Malloy's siaiemeni ilai "Ii would lave ialen exiiaoidinaiy poliiical couiage on Tiuman's
paii io willingly give up ile Ameiican nucleai monopoly wiiloui fiisi exiiaciing majoi
concessions fiom ile Soviei Union."
ii

io
Campbell Ciaig and Seigey Radclenlo, Tbe Atomic Bomb onJ tbe Oriqins of tbe ColJ Vor (New
Haven, :ooS).
Even ile Anglo-Ameiican waiiime slaiing,
pioduced by oveiwlelming inceniives, was siiained and fai less ilan compleie. Receni
ieseaicl by }acques Hymans indicaies ilai many decision-maleis in Biiiain weie moie
open io ile idea of inieinaiional coniiol and ilai Cluiclill's opposiiion siemmed in laige

ii
Sean Malloiy, Atomic TroqeJy. Henry l. Stimson onJ tbe Decision to Use tbe Bomb Aqoinst jopon
(Iilaca, :ooS), i.

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measuie fiom lis desiie io solidify Anglo-Ameiican ielaiions.
i:
Bui ile veiy faci ilai iley
did noi lave ile final auiloiiiy may lave made ii easiei foi ilem io enieiiain ilese ideas,
and ii is fai fiom cleai ilai lad ile Wesi siaiied down ilis ioad ii would lave led
anywleie. Similaily, even if Geoffiey Robeiis is coiieci ilai Sialin was seiious in lis
desiie io exploie moie coopeiaiive aiiangemenis ilai would lave saciificed a Soviei
bomb, I agiee wiil Ciaig and Radclenlo's ieply ilai ii was unlilely ilai le would lave
agieed io even ieasonable inspeciions and ilai negoiiaiions would lave foundeied.
i


Tlis does noi mean ilai inieinaiional coniiol was impossible, bui jusi ilai in ile noimal
couise of inieinaiional evenis and even wiiloui paiiiculaily losiile inieni on eiilei side
ilis ouicome was exiiemely unlilely. Of couise one can ieply, as Secieiaiy of Wai Heniy
Siimson and many aiomic scieniisis did, ilai ile ciicumsiances weie so unusual, ile
dangeis of a nucleai aims iace so gieai, and ile benefiis of inieinaiionalizaiion so cleai
ilai ile siandaid paiiein of inieinaiional poliiics slould and could lave been biolen.
Peilaps, bui I believe ilai ai minimum ile case lools veiy diffeieni wlen viewed in
ieims of geneializaiions aboui inieinaiional poliiics ilan ii does fiom a deiailed
examinaiion of ile case ilai ignoies ilis paiiein. Even if ile ielaiions beiween ile gieai
poweis lad been as laimonious as iley weie afiei ile Napoleonic wais (sloii of
compleie laimony, io be suie, bui coopeiaiive io an almosi an unpiecedenied exieni), ii
is laid io see an agieemeni on inieinaiional coniiol. Tle siaies in ile Conceii nevei
embailed on coopeiaiive veniuies on oidei of ilis magniiude.

Tlose lile ile lisioiian Paul Sclioedei and ile poliiical scieniisi G. }oln Ilenbeiiy could
ieply ilai ielying on geneializaiions in ilis way implies ilai inieinaiional poliiics does
noi and cannoi clange (a common and paiiially misleading claige ofien levied againsi
Realism), wleieas in faci ovei iime ileie is piogiess iowaid gieaiei coopeiaiion and
oidei. Tlis implies ilai ile failuie io aclieve inieinaiional coniiol, and peilaps ile
diopping of ile A-bombs, aie indeed puzzles even ilougl iley weie iypical of eailiei
inieinaiional poliiics. One iesponse would be ilai ilese cases casi doubi on aigumenis
foi piogiess. A moie measuied one would be ilai even if ileie is piogiess (and I am
inclined io ilinl ilai ileie is), ile geneializaiions iemain poweiful.

MORALITY

Tle final diffeience beiween lisioiians and poliiical scieniisis ilai I wani io discuss
conceins moialiiy. I will be biief leie in paii I lad an eailiei exclange wiil Paul

i:
}acques Hymans, "Biiiain and Hiioslima," journol of Stroteqic StuJies, vol. :, Ociobei :ooq:
y6q-qy.

i
H-Diplo Roundiable on Ciaig and Rodclenlo, Tbe Atomic Bomb onJ tbe Oriqins of tbe ColJ Vor,
Vol. XI, No S. y Decembei :ooq, pp. iS-:o, :y.

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Sclioedei on ilis subjeci.
i(

I ilinl ilai lisioiians aie geneially moie conceined wiil
and willing io male value and moial judgmenis aboui ile conduci of ilose iley aie
siudying ilan aie mosi poliiical scieniisis. In paii, ilis is linled io wlai I discussed in
ile pievious seciion. If almosi all decision-maleis would lave acied as Tiuman did, ilen
lis belavioi appeais diffeieni moially as well as analyiically. We may wani io condemn
(oi piaise) naiional leadeis and oilei individuals, bui unless iley aie belaving
disiinciively, ilen oui judgmenis apply io wlole caiegoiies of peopleoi io people as a
wloleiailei ilan io individuals. To ile exieni ilai we aiiiibuie ile individual's
belavioi io ile ciicumsiances sle is in iailei ilan io lei peisonaliiy, piefeiences, oi
piedisposiiions, oui moial judgmenis musi be iempeied. Tlis of couise is ile siandaid
Realisi aigumeni ilai ile compelling naiuie of ile inieinaiional enviionmeni iendeis
inappiopiiaie ile siandaids of moialiiy ilai we use in eveiyday life, and someiimes in
domesiic poliiics. Noi all poliiical scieniisis aie Realisis and noi all diplomaiic lisioiians
disseni fiom ilis iiadiiion, bui I ilinl ile concein wiil geneializaiions leads io iesisiing
eilical judgmenis aboui ilose being siudied. Because poliiical scieniisis expeci leadeis
io saciifice oileis' inieiesis if noi ileii lives in oidei io siay in powei and io be willing io
saciifice ile inieiesis and lives of ciiizens of oilei couniiies in oidei io pieseive ilose of
ileii couniiymen, iley find many of ile accounis of diplomaiic lisioiians io be
moialisiic and nave in ileii iesponses io noimal if unpleasani inieinaiional belavioi.
Peilaps moie impoiianily, mosi poliiical scieniisis see ileii iasl as explaining belavioi,
noi judging ii. Tle poini of oui exeicise is io use oui ileoiies io undeisiand wly people
aie aciing as iley aie and io discein and diseniangle ile complex webs of causaiion.
Moial judgmenis may be made ai ile end, bui iley aie noi paii of oui job desciipiion. By
coniiasi, if Paul Sclioedei is coiieci many lisioiians see as ceniial io ileii calling ile
need io do jusiice io and foi ilose wlo can no longei speal foi ilemselves. Poliiical
scieniisis noi so mucl disagiee as leep ileii focus elsewleie, on ile causes of ile
belavioi and low iley fii wiil oui geneial undeisianding of poliiics.

Tlese diffeiences pioduce iensions beiween poliiical scieniisis and inieinaiional
lisioiians ilai we slould noi expeci io be iesolved. Indeed, iley slould noi be because
ile diveisiiy of peispeciives benefiis us all. Tle poini is noi io conveii oileis io oui
viewpoini, bui io undeisiand ileiis.


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i(
Oui essays can be found in Colin Elman and Miiiam Fendius Elman, eds., BriJqes onJ BounJories.
Historions, Politicol Scientists, onJ tbe StuJy of lnternotionol Relotions (Cambiidge, Mass., :ooi).