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Review_07/11/14 - ( Rating - 10/15 ) Positive - High Risk - Rupee is Appreciating / Nifty on verge of Breaking out into Bull Market / AD is +ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is
+ve / Bonds is +Ve (--) Big Picture is Positive.
| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Neutral | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |
It is notable that the entire activity of previous 4 Months is contained into the range of
August Huge Candle & it is unable to takeout the lows of that August candle.On Daily
TF the price has broken on Upside. It is Notable that $ Index has Given a Breakout
from Weekly Demand Zone & $ is expected to Raise against all Currencies (Trouble for
Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been considered to be the
Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash).
Nifty - ( 3/4 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631 (22-02-2012) is Uptrend &
there was retracement upto 4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012
Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to 6110 (29-01-2013) There was
correction from 6110 (29-01-2013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013)
After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-05-2013) There was correction
in Uptrend (as Higher Low is formed at 5570 on 25-06-2013 after Neckline of 5950 of
Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to
6229)
Lower High Lower Low Trend (Down Trend from 6229 (20-05-2013) to 5565 (24-062013). Retest & Double Top Was From 5565 (24-06-2013) & Ended at 6077.79 ( 23-072013 ). Another Lower High is Created at 5742.29 (14-08-2013)
Sentiments Sentiments are now Caustious as current Breakout into Life time High
has retraced, Due to Sharp retracement in Upmove Traders are forced to cut their
Long Position,A Break on Upside from Weekly Inverse H&S & Monthly Ascending
Triangle Indicates Supreme Power for Bulls.Risk Reward would be favourable on Bear
Side upto Retest. Earnings expectations are mostly -ve
TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 7235.64 ) Nifty could now build Short Position
due to Sharp Pullback Rally..
Nifty's 56 Day Cycle
(19-09-2014 was a Narrow Down Doji Day) (Next Date 14-11-2014 Expect Uptrend )-->
Mid month Reversal ( 16-10-2014 was a Huge Bear Exhaustion Day )(Next Date 17-112014) Quaterlies Settlement is on 3rd Friday (19-09-2014 was Narrow Range Bearish
Doji Day) (Next Date 19-12-2014)
P & F Chart Bearish Signal Reversed Pattern occurred on 29-10-2014. 1) Rare
Double top & Inverse H&S Neckline Breakout @ 6200 --- 2) New Support 7600 &
Resistance Life Highs
Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)
Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks
advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even
reverse.
AD Line is Now falling with increase in Nifty, indicates decreased strength in Up trend
& But Line is still Low on the Curve hence it is Positive for Uptrend.
Midcaps are Raising with declining Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels
) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Little Momentum.
NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs
versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs
indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive
There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" has been broken on upside
for a 2nd Time indicating weekness in Up Trend.The "Peaks of stocks Hitting 52
Week High" Should increase for strong Up Trend
India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied
volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor
& used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with
Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will
move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index
VIX is below 20 indicating Complacancy. Fear/ Volitality has increased with Up Trend
indicating Possible pullback...Volume is also High....
Indian Bonds (3/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period
= Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market)
All Bonds Compleing Pullback in Uptrend. Correct Relation of 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI is achived (Caution Money is Moving to Short term Bond Market from Share
Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) .. . Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed by Govt)
& with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than
corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets.
10 Y
30 Y
3Y
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
http://
in.advf
n.com
/world
Weekly - Up Trend
Weekly - Up Trend
Weekly - Sideways Trend
Weekly - Up Trend
Weekly - Sideways Trend
Weekly - Up Trend
Weekly - Sideways Trend
Weekly - Up Trend
Weekly - Sideways Trend
Weekly - Up Trend
NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any
investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.