Professional Documents
Culture Documents
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
CMP Target Price
Rating Upside
BUY (■) 32.7 %
RBL reported a strong margin uptick – up 19bps QoQ/44bps YoY to 4.7%, but elevated opex Change in Estimates
and NPA provisions led to a slight miss on PAT at Rs2.1bn (vs. our est.: Rs2.2bn). However, EPS Chg FY23E/FY24E (%) (0.4)/(0.8)
the bank has guided for 1% exit RoA, as income growth outpaces opex and LLP too moderates Target Price change (%) 40.6
with asset quality on the mend.
Target Period (Months) 12
Credit growth improved to 15% YoY/6% QoQ, mainly led by better traction in the retail/SME Previous Reco BUY
book. Despite disbursements being impacted for a week in Q3 due to technical upgrade, MFI
Emkay vs Consensus
AUM grew 10% QoQ and should further accelerate in the seasonally-strong 4Q. Deposit growth
is also expected to accelerate (3Q at 11% YoY), as built-up franchisee and fintech partnerships EPS Estimates
deliver results. FY23E FY24E
GNPA ratio improved by 19bps QoQ to 3.6% due to higher recoveries/w-offs and growth. Bank Emkay 14.7 21.1
has indicated that the MFI stress flow from the restructured pool is largely done with, which Consensus 14.9 19.7
should, thus, lead to moderate slippages. This should result in lower LLP and hence drive-up Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 145
RoAs to 0.8-1.2%/7-12% over FY23E/FY25E from a loss in FY22. Stock Details
We retain BUY on the stock and upgrade our TP to Rs225 (from Rs160), rolling forward on 0.9x Bloomberg Code RBK IN
Dec-24E ABV, while taking comfort from improving growth/asset quality and RoE trajectory. The
Face Value (Rs) 10
bank’s regulatory compliance should also improve and so reduce the risk of regulatory friction.
That said, managing liability amid rising competitive intensity will be closely tracked. Shares outstanding (mn) 600
52 Week H/L 189 / 74
M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 102 / 1.25
Strong growth, coupled with asset re-pricing, led to sharp margin uptick: Overall credit Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 172,68,180
growth improved to 15% YoY/6% QoQ, mainly driven by retail/SME. Despite disbursements Daily Avg Turnover (USD mn) 32.6
being impacted for a week in Q3 due to technical issues, MFI AUM grew by 10% QoQ and is
likely to further improve hereon. Growth in the card business is also gradually accelerating, Shareholding Pattern Dec '22
which could be a key growth & margin driver. That said, RBL would also focus on increasing Promoters -%
the share of new business lines, including housing, vehicle loans (new/used), tractors and gold. FIIs 26.5%
The bank has been consuming internal excess liquidity which, coupled with asset re-pricing, led DIIs 20.2%
to sharp margin uptick – 19bps QoQ to 4.7%. However, RBL would now incrementally focus on Public and Others 53.3%
driving-up deposit growth that, coupled with rising CoF, should have some effect on margins.
Price Performance
NPA formation moderates; MFI pain largely behind: Despite elevated slippages at (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Rs6.1bn/4.2% of loans (due to slippages from the RSA pool, including MFI/Cards), higher
Absolute - 32 85 12
recoveries/w-offs led to a 19bps QoQ decline in the GNPA ratio to 3.6%. Specific PCR remained
Rel. to Nifty 2 28 70 10
flat, albeit healthy at ~68%. The restructured book moderated to 1.4% of loans due to relapse
into NPAs, with the balance being business loan (largely secured). As a strategy, the bank is Relative price trend
likely to focus on recovery from old NPAs, including CCD, McLeod Russel, etc which should 200 Rs % 30
Outlook and valuations: We retain BUY on the stock and upgrade our TP to Rs225 (earlier 148 2
Rs160), rolling forward on 0.9x Dec-24E ABV, while taking comfort from the improving 122 -12
growth/asset quality and RoE trajectory (7-12% over FY23-25E from a loss in FY22). The bank’s
96 -26
regulatory compliance should also improve and, thus, reduce the risk of regulatory friction. Key
70 -40
risks: Management attrition, sharp rise in CoF leading to margin derailment and continued asset Jan-22 Mar-22May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22Nov-22 Jan-23
quality stress in Cards/Business loans. RBK IN Equity (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The
Financial Snapshot (Standalone) following person(s) are responsible for the
production of the recommendation:
(Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Heet Khimawat
Net income 56,716 63,673 68,622 79,321 94,521
heet.khimawat@emkayglobal.com
Net profit 5,078 (747) 8,834 12,626 17,836
+91 22 6612 1275
EPS (Rs) 9.2 (1.2) 14.7 21.1 29.8
ABV (Rs) 212.0 200.6 215.0 235.0 261.4
Dixit Sankharva
RoA (%) 0.5 (0.1) 0.8 1.0 1.2 dixit.sankharva@emkayglobal.com
RoE (%) 4.4 (0.6) 6.8 9.0 11.6 +91 22 6612 1281
P/E (x) 18.5 NM 11.5 8.0 5.7
Soumya Jain
P/ABV 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
soumya.jain@emkayglobal.com
Source: Company, Emkay Research, NM: Not Meaningful
+91 22 6612 1262
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Overall credit growth improved in Q3... Exhibit 2: …mainly led by Retail and SME
-10% 0%
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
-10%
-8%
CIB CB Retail MFI Credit card
Exhibit 3: NIM improved by 19bps, mainly due to higher yields Exhibit 4: GNPA% improved by 19bps due to lower slippages and
higher recovery/w-offs, while PCR remained at 68% levels
5.4
6.0 5.0 5.9 75.0
4.7
4.8
4.6 68
5.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.4 5.3 70.0
4.4
4.10
4.1
3.8
4.7 65.0
3.6
4.0
4.1 60.0
3.0 3.5
55.0
2.1
2.0 2.9
1.9
50.0
2.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.0 1.7 45.0
0.0 1.1 40.0
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
0.5 35.0
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
NIMs (%)
GNPA Ratio (%) NNPA Ratio (%) PCR (%)
Exhibit 5: NPA stabilizing across products and should continue to Exhibit 6: Strong growth, improving asset quality and lower LLP
improve should drive up the bank’s RoA
Total
Others
Wholesale
Retail
Retail Agri
Credit Cards
Banking
-0.1
Loans
0.0 0.0
-0.2 -2.0
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
3QFY22 2QFY23 3QFY23 RoA (%) RoE (%)
Exhibit 7: The stock currently trades at 0.7x one-year forward P/ABV (x)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
Jul/17
Jul/18
Jul/19
Jul/20
Jul/21
Jul/22
Jan/17
Jan/18
Jan/19
Jan/20
Jan/21
Jan/22
Jan/23
Oct/18
Oct/21
Apr/17
Oct/17
Apr/18
Apr/19
Oct/19
Apr/20
Oct/20
Apr/21
Apr/22
Oct/22
P/AdjBVPS Mean +2 SD -2 SD
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 2
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 3
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 4
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
Balance Sheet
Y/E Year End (Rs mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Equity 5,980 5,995 5,995 5,995 5,995
Reserves 1,20,645 1,20,187 1,28,421 1,39,848 1,55,886
Net worth 1,26,625 1,26,182 1,34,417 1,45,843 1,61,881
Deposits 7,31,213 7,90,065 8,74,648 10,28,134 12,30,820
Borrowings 1,04,959 1,03,630 95,340 1,00,107 1,05,112
Total liabilities 10,06,505 10,62,086 11,40,553 13,20,583 15,73,261
Cash and bank 67,047 1,31,111 68,178 71,586 75,166
Investments 2,32,304 2,22,744 2,46,258 2,73,143 3,13,966
Loans 5,86,225 6,00,218 6,95,248 8,32,226 10,18,105
Others 49,070 58,166 70,414 82,756 98,045
Total assets 10,06,506 10,62,086 11,40,553 13,20,583 15,73,261
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 5
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 6
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
21-Jul-20
18-Jul-21
15-Jul-22
22-Jan-20
18-Jan-21
15-Jan-22
12-Jan-23
29-Oct-21 181 215 12m Hold Anand Dama
03-Aug-21 187 200 12m Hold Anand Dama
05-Apr-21 206 255 12m Buy Anand Dama Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
29-Jan-21 214 290 12m Buy Anand Dama
20-Jan-21 254 290 12m Hold Anand Dama
29-Oct-20 175 200 12m Hold Anand Dama
29-Jul-20 177 195 12m Hold Anand Dama
08-May-20 119 145 12m Hold Anand Dama
11-Apr-20 121 175 12m Hold Anand Dama
23-Jan-20 339 340 12m Hold Anand Dama
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 7
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.
Disclaimer for U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of Emkay Global Financial Services Limited (Emkay), which is the employer of the
research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States
(U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-
dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority (FINRA) or required to otherwise
comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities
held by a research analyst account. This report is intended for distribution to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on
Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the
same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional
Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to
conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors.
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 8
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
1
An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of which the analyst, his spouse,
minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions
or instructions of the analyst.
2
Financial interest is defined as interest that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant, or
financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at the
arm’s length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in
securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.
1. EGFSL, its subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of January 21,
2023
2. EGFSL, and/or Research Analyst does not market make in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research Report
Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced:
3. EGFSL may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research
report during the preceding 12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view previous investment
recommendations published by EGFSL in the preceding 12 months.
4. EGFSL , its subsidiaries and/or other affiliates and Research Analyst or his/her relative’s does not have any material conflict of interest in the
securities recommended in this report as of January 21, 2023.
5. EGFSL, its subsidiaries and/or other affiliates and Research Analyst or his/her relative’s does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more
securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the January 21, 2023
6. EGFSL, its subsidiaries and/or other affiliates and Research Analyst have not received any compensation in whatever form including compensation
for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking
or brokerage services from securities recommended in this report (subject company) in the past 12 months.
7. EGFSL, its subsidiaries and/or other affiliates and/or and Research Analyst have not received any compensation or other benefits from securities
recommended in this report (subject company) or third party in connection with the research report.
8. Securities recommended in this report (Subject Company) has not been client of EGFSL, its subsidiaries and/or other affiliates and/or and
Research Analyst during twelve months preceding the January 21, 2023
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023 | 9
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM
RBL Bank (RBK IN) India Equity Research | Result Update
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
General located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be
contrary to law or regulation.
Australia This report is not for distribution into Australia.
Hong Kong This report is not for distribution into Hong Kong.
Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia.
Malaysia This report is not for distribution into Malaysia.
This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 16800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn. No.
1860024G) both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary
Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities,
Singapore
affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an agreement under Regulation 32C of the financial Advisers
Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with
the report.
Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd.
This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, ("DBSVUK"). DBSVUK is authorised
and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom.
In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected and
United Kingdom associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any
form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVUK. This communication is directed at
persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment activity following from this
communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating
to investments should not rely on this communication.
This research report is being distributed by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at units 608-610, 6th Floor, Gate
Dubai International
Precinct Building 5, PO Box 506538, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank
Financial Centre
Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for
professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.
This report is provided by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as defined
in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This report is for information purposes
only and should not be relied upon or acted on by the recipient or considered as a solicitation or inducement to buy or sell any
financial product. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives,
United Arab Emirates
financial situation, or needs of individual clients. You should contact your relationship manager or investment adviser if you
need advice on the merits of buying, selling or holding a particular investment. You should note that the information in this
report may be out of date and it is not represented or warranted to be accurate, timely or complete. This report or any portion
thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our written consent.
DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research
analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule
2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities
United States held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for
its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to
such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report
who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.
In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified,
Other jurisdictions
professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
SANJAY
DN: c=IN, o=EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL
SERVICES LIMITED, ou=-,
2.5.4.20=0e110317a8bd3bd3f96249f6a4c
209160ecb5613fd9b5a6ec3cfa00ceb0094
CHAWLA
c5, postalCode=400013, st=Maharashtra,
serialNumber=177d8e34b7d575833905ec
37ed0d9ea162f9fc49c24ac020da16b9232
71eaebb, cn=SANJAY CHAWLA
Date: 2023.01.21 10:10:14 +05'30'
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited
Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
This report is intended for 'mshahtrades@gmail.com' use and downloaded at 1/22/2023 7:27:23 PM January 21, 2023| 10