D BO BN HNG V LP NGN SCH

1. D bo
o nh ngha mt s thut ng
o Tm quan trng ca d bo bn hng i vi gim c bn hng
o Qu trnh d bo
o Cng vic d bo v gim c bn hng
o Qui trnh d bo v cht lng
o Cc quy trnh d bo v s lng
o La chn qui trnh d bo thch hp nht
2. ra hn ngch (ch tiu)
3. Lp ngn sch

Tm tt
Chng ny nu ln ba hot ng qun tr bn hng quan trng l d bo, xc
nh hn ngch v lp ngn sch. D bo, xc nh hn ngch v lp ngn sch l
mt qu trnh c quan h qua li trong qun l tin bc ca qun. Mt gim c bn
hng c th lp d bo v cht lng v s lng. Cc d bo l c s ca hn ngch
m ngi gim c cn phi t c. Vy th s hiu bit cc loi hn ngch khc
nhau, mc ch ca chng v vic xc nh chng l mt phn trch nhim ca ngi
gim c. Cui cng, ngn sch bn hng ca mt qun phi thng nht vi hn
ngch bn hng v cc ph tn nh trc cho qun. Ngi gim c c trch nhim
mt phn v vic lp d ton ngn sch v c trch nhim hon ton v vic theo
di n c hon thnh.
1. D bo
D bo bn hng c th l mt trong cc vn th quan trng nht ca c quan.
Nhiu thnh vin trn cc lnh vc chc nng ca cng ty da vo d bo bn
hng lp k hoch hot ng ca h. Thc hin ngn sch v ln k hoch nhn
s, sn xut v kinh doanh, qun tr ti sn v phn phi, v.v...tt c u ph thuc
vo tnh chnh xc ca d bo bn hng v gim c bn hng ng hai vai tr quan
trng. Th nht, h thng cung cp c s d kin cho vic lp mt d bo. Th hai,
cc hot ng ca h cp c s trc tip tc ng n tnh chnh xc ca bn d
bo chung. Hnh 6-1 tm tt mt m hnh c n gin ha ca quan h gia d
bo, ra hn ngch v lp ngn sch.

Hnh 6-1. Mi quan h gia d bo, ra hn ngch v lp ngn sch

nh ngha mt s thut ng
pht trin v s dng mt bn d bo bn hng, ngi s dng cn phi hiu bn
iu quan trng: Nng lc th trng, doanh s ca ngnh bn hng, nng lc bn
ca cng ty, v d bo bn hng ca cng ty.
Nng lc th trng. y l nh gi v khi lng hng bn cao nht c th c
ca mt sn phm, dch v hoc dch v cng cng trn th trng i vi tt c cc
i th cnh tranh, trong mt giai on nht nh. Nhiu gi thit c a ra bao
gm cc iu kin kinh t a phng v quc gia v mc cnh tranh. Nng lc
th trng cn c qui nh theo khu vc lnh th cng nh theo phn loi khch
hng.
Doanh s ca ngnh hng. Ton b nng lc th trng yu cu trc mt khi
lng bn hng s to ra c di cc iu kin l tng, doanh s ca ngnh hng
l khi lng hng bn thc s ca mt ngnh nht nh th trng c th trong
mt giai on nht nh. Nu cc gi thit v iu kin khc nhau, doanh s ca
ngnh hng s gn ging nng lc th trng. mt s ngnh hng, cc d bo c
lp bi cc hng t nhn hoc cc hip hi cng thng. Cc d bo ny cng a ra
cc gi thit v cc yu t nh iu kin kinh t v lc lng tip th ca ngnh.
Nng lc bn hng ca cng ty. y l s lng cao nht ca nng lc th
trng m mt cng ty n c c th hy vng nhn c t cc ngun v kh nng
sn c ca n mt cch ng tin cy.
D bo bn hng ca cng ty. l nh gi s lng bn bng tin hoc theo
n v sn phm (dch v) trong tng lai ca mt hng i vi tng mt hng mt

thi gian nht nh trn tt c cc th trng m cng ty ny tham gia cnh tranh.
D bo c lp ra nh mt b phn ca qu trnh lp k hoch hng ny v l c
s ca cch la chn ca mt cng ty v s phi hp tip th thc t. Nu k hoch
v phi hp tip th thay i, th sau mt d bo mi cn phi c a ra
phn nh cc thay i . mc khu vc, d bo cng chia theo sn phm v
thi gian, nhng khi khu vc a l c xc nh, sau c th c d bo theo
tng khch hng ring bit.
Tm quan trng ca d bo bn hng i vi gim c bn hng
Bi v c hai hn ngch bn v ngn sch bn hng l h qu trc tip ca d
bo bn hng, gim c bn hng b ph thuc nhiu vo d bo bn hng pht
trin cc k hoch ca qun v trong vic kim sot cc hot ng ca nhn vin
bn hng. D bo cho php gim c ln k hoch phn cng nhn s trong qun, v
th khi lng bn v mc tiu li nhun c hon thnh.
Hn ngch bn dnh cho mi nhn vin bn hng l qui nh php lnh i vi
tt c cc nhn vin cng nh vi gim c o lng v nh gi vic thc hin.
Ngn sch bn hng qui nh s tin m ngi gim c ca mnh nhm hon thnh
hn ngch bn hng trong mt giai on nht nh. Nh vy tnh chnh xc ca d
bo tr thnh mt yu t tm l trong hot ng thnh cng qun ca ngi gim
c bn hng.
Qu trnh d bo
Mc d gim c bn hng c s hu nh lun l ngi s dng cc d bo, vai
tr ca gim c bn hng trong qu trnh lp mt d bo c th v s thay i
nhiu theo cng ty. Tuy nhin khng c mt phng php d bo no c th chnh
xc cho mi lc. Mt gim c cn nhn bit mt s k thut d bo thch hp v
cc c tnh ca chng trc khi la chn mt loi k thut d bo no . Nhn
chung, tuy vy, v phng din t chc c hai qu trnh m mt gim c qun c
th gp phi d bo bn hng cp qun: T trn xung v t di ln (Trong hot
ng hng ngy cc cng ty hu nh s s dng kt hp c hai phng php ny
kim tra tnh hiu lc ca chng).
Phng php t trn xung :
Phng php t trn xung cng cn c gi l phng php chia nh (break down). Trong phng php ny d bo bn hng c thc hin mc kinh
doanh chung hoc chin lc. Sau trn c s cc tiu chun nh lng bn k

trc v cc mc v ngun tin s bo bn c chia nh ra dn theo cc n v

t chc, kt thc d bo bn sn phm cho cc qun v khu vc bn hng.
D bo ban u ca qu trnh ny bt ngun t i ng nhn vin kinh nghim
hng ngy, t my vi tnh, c s s liu ln v cc k thut thng k v kinh t phc
tp. Ngc li, chng c khuynh hng da nhiu vo cc ngun ny. Cc d bo
thng xuyn hn c ra v pht trin c lp bi b phn hi s khng cn
bt c s ng gp no ca lc lng bn hng. Trong cc trng hp ny gim c
bn hng khng c trch nhim. n gin vo u nm h (gim c) c bit d
bo bn hng g i vi cng ty v hn ngch no h cn phi hon thnh. u vo
ca Qu trnh ny hoc khng c mong i hoc khng c khuyn khch.
Phng php t di ln
Phng php ny cng cn c gi l phng php xy dng ln bi v n bt
u vi cc d bo bn hng tng lai v tng sn phm t nhng ngi c kin
thc hiu bit v cc iu kin th trng. Cc d bo theo sn phm ny sau
c tng hp theo tt c (sn phm) mt hng v n v lp mt d bo bn
ca cng ty. D bo ny c th sau y c xc nh bi b phn phn tch tnh
n cc iu kin kinh t, kh nng tip th v cc sn phm mi.
Thc t, nhiu cng ty cc gim c v nhn vin l c s ban u, thnh
thong cn l ngun duy nht nh gi d bo bn. Mc d v nguyn tc s
tham gia khng i hi g hn ngoi nhng nh gi n gin, s tn ti ca ngi
s dng phn mm d bo trn my vi tnh cung cp cho ngi gim c c hi
to ra nhng d bo ring cho mnh. Rt nhiu gim c, tuy vy, khng c thi
gian, khng c quan tm, khng c hun luyn hoc nhn cc s liu cn thit
thc hin trn gi d bo ny. Thm ch nu ngi gim c khng bao gi b yu
cu lm nhiu hn cc s liu cung cp cho ca b phn bn, anh (ch) ta cn phi
thc hin thnh cng cc d bo.
Cng vic d bo v gim c bn hng
Mt gim c khng th hy vng va l nh gim c gii va l nh d bo
gii. Gim c bn hng c s cn nhn bit mt s qui trnh d bo v c kh nng
lp mt d bo cn bn nh s dng cc s liu sn c. C nhiu qui trnh m mt
gim c c th p dng trong khi ra mt d bo. thun tin chng c chia
ra lm hai loi: cht lng v s lng.
Qui trnh d bo v cht lng

Cc k thut v cht lng khng da trc tip trn s tham gia ca cc con s
vo mt d bo. ng hn chng biu hin "cc nh gi tt nht" c tp hp li
ca nhng ngi c coi l chuyn nghip. D bo chuyn nghip ny c th c
do cc nhn vin bn hng, cc nhn vin thi hnh c hc vn, cc khch hng hoc
nhng ngi s dng d bo sn phm hoc dch v lp nn.
Tng hp ca lc lng bn hng
Phng php d bo ny gm s tp hp cc nh gi ca nhn vin bn hng,
qun tr bn hng hoc c hai, cho khi lng bn sn phm c nhn hoc cho
tng khi lng bn. C 60-70% ca cng ty s dng phng php ny nh l mt
b phn thng xuyn ca chng trnh d bo ca h. Vic s dng thng xuyn
k thut ny l cc hng cng nghip lp cc d bo ngn hn v trung hn.
K thut ny c mt s u im: n s dng cc kin thc quen thuc nht v
th trng, ngi nn bit cc k hoch ca khch hng; n lm n gin ha sn
phm, khch hng v phn chia khu vc ra hn ngch v kim sot; v cui
cng, nhng ngi c trch nhim i vi d bo ny s cn phi thc hin theo cc
nh gi ca h, v vy tnh khuyn khch s chnh xc v ng s tht l rt cao.
Nhc im ca k thut ny l cc nhn vin bn hng khng phi l cc nh
d bo c o to v c xu hng b nh hng ln bi cc tc ng tinh thn lc
quan hay bi quan ngi tham gia th trng. Hn na, h t khi bit v cc tc
ng ca cc iu kin kinh t tng qut, b b buc vo hn ngch v s tr th lao
bn hng ca h.
Tnh chnh xc ca d bo ca lc lng bn hng c th c ci thin nu
nhng ngi bn hng c cung cp nhiu thng tin hn, nhiu thi gian thc
hin cc d bo ca h, khuyn khch lm chnh xc v c hun luyn nhiu hn
v qui trnh d bo v cc hng tng lai ca cng ty. Cng ty cng cn phi sn
sng lm ngi phn xt thng thi v cc d bo ca nhn vin bn hng trn c s
cc thng tin b sung.
Gim st kin thi hnh
Phng php cht lng ny thng c cc hng dch v v nh sn xut
hng tiu dng p dng nhiu nht. Mt nhm nhng nhn vin tha hnh t cc
lnh vc t chc v chc nng khc nhau c bu ra d bo khi lng bn. V
d: nhng ngi tha hnh t cc b phn qung co, bn hng v sn xut s c

yu cu a ra nh gi theo s thay i th trng v cho kin (nhn xt) c

bit v s nh hng ca nhng thay i ny n s thc hin bn ca cng ty trong
nm tip theo. Cc d bo ny sau c iu ha a vo mt d bo bn hng
duy nht.
nh gi tng qut
K thut xem xt tng qut bao gm s t cu hi trc tip cho cc khch
hng v ngi mua sp ti v k hoch trong tng lai ca h hoc cc nh chuyn
mn bn ngoi m h thu nhn trong tng lai. iu ny rt hp l v c hiu qu
nhng ni m th trng c xc nh r v quyt tm mua ca khch hng c
ln k hoch cn thn v c thi hnh bnh thng. Cc nh gi tng qut ny c
th cng n gin nh cuc phng vn ca nhn vin bn hng vi cc khch hng
hoc phc tp nh cc cu hi a ra vi kh nng ly mu v phn tch cc s liu
tinh vi do cc nh nghin cu th trng a ra. S nh gi tng qut theo din
rng tnh quyt tm mua ca khch hng l i tng ca tt c cc vn c lin
quan ti bt k s xem xt no. Hn na, trong thi gian yu cu thu thp cc kt
qu, mi trng c th thay i, v vy tt nhin kt qu d bo c gi tr khng r
rng.
Mt s cng ty c mi quan h bn vi mt s t khch hng yu cu cc
nhn vin bn hng ca mnh t cu hi vi cc khch hng ny v cc k hoch
tng lai ca h. Tuy nhin, u cng ty phi nhn thy rng cc nhn vin bn
hng hin nhin khng c tc ng, i khi b nh kin thu thp cc thng tin. Qun
tr cn phi cn thn cn i cc nh gi ca nhn vin vi cc ngun khc nh cc
d bo s lng trc tip t th trng ca khch hng.
Cc quy trnh d bo v s lng
Quy trnh d bo v s lng c th rt phc tp. Mt s k thut i hi c
kin thc y v c hun luyn cng vi s thc hnh thng xuyn m
bo rng chng c s dng ng. Mt gim c bn hng cn phi lp cc d bo
s dng ch nhng qui trnh m anh (ch) ta hiu bit. Trong phn ny qui trnh d
bo v s lng c nhm thnh ba loi: nguyn nhn, nhm thi gian, v cc yu
t th phn.
Mt phng php tng i khng phc tp ca d bo s dng cc s liu in
n tnh ton tnh trng ca cc yu t th trng hin ti m n c mi lin h t
lu vi s thc hin bn hng ca cng ty. Hai ngun c s dng thng xuyn

hn l ch s sc mua v cc thng tin cc ngun t nhn v cng cng, ph thuc

vo h thng Phn loi Tiu chun Cng nghip.
Ch s sc mua (BPI). BPI l mt ch s v kh nng mua ca ngi tiu dng
c tnh ton theo cc s liu trong cun "iu tra v sc mua" c xut bn hng
nm bi c quan "Qun tr bn hng v tip th". BPI c ba phn chnh: 1 - Nhn
khu hc, da trn c s cc c tnh ca dn s v vng 2 - Kinh t - thu nhp gia
nh; 3 - Phn phi, bao gm khi lng bn l cc loi ca hng.
Khi s liu ca BPI c chun b sn v tch ly mi nm, cc nh gi ny c
th c thc hin cho tt c cc th trng v gi nguyn trng. Tuy nhin, nn nh
rng chng l nng lc th trng v khng phi nh gi d bo bn. lp c
mt d bo bn hng cng ty cn phi nh gi phn hp l m cng ty c th c
kh nng nhn c khu vc trn c s nh gi s cnh tranh v s xm nhp
vo th trng ca cng ty v h tr phn phi cng nh s lng v kh nng ca
cc nhn vin bn hng cho bn theo cc khon .
La chn qui trnh d bo thch hp nht
Mt cu hi thng t ra l k thut d bo no to ra nhng kt qu chnh
xc nht? Cu tr li l khng c mt k thut no to ra kt qu "tt nht" trong tt
c cc tnh hung v iu kin. K thut d bo c s dng ph thuc vo mc
ch ca d bo, thi gian qui nh a ra, vo s lng v cht lng ca cc s liu
lch s v vo nhng ngi s thc hin v p dng k thut.
D bo ngn hn
D bo ngn hn thng c xt cho mt thi k di mt nm. Nhng kt
qu ca mt cuc nghin cu cho thy sai s bnh qun cho mt d bo thi hn
ngn khong 6,9%.
Nhn chung mt s dng ca phng php nhm thi gian c s dng tt
nht cho d bo ngn hn. Cc d bo ny thng d tnh ton v d hiu v chng
i hi tng i t s liu hon thnh. Hai phn ba cc cng ty nghin cu cho
thy, h tha mn vi tnh chnh xc ca phng php san bng bng s m, nhng
ch c 43% l tha mn vi s thc hin hn hp lc lng bn hng. Kh khn
chnh l thc hin mt qui trnh to ra cc d bo chnh xc v ng tin cy.
D bo di hn

La chn k thut cho cc d bo c thi hn di hn, kh khn hn, khng

mt k thut no tha mn tt c cc trng hp. Cc phng php s lng c th
rt chnh xc, nhng chng i hi s tinh vi (k lng) hn trong khi thi hnh v s
dng. Hn na, chng khng c chnh xc lm trong cc mi trng bin ng cao
bi v chng c mt s vn c nu ln trc nh thay i trong chu k i sng
ca sn phm. Mt phng php cht lng c th ch ra cc yu t quan trng
khng th xc nh c nhng c xu hng b nh hng ca nh kin c nhn. Do
mi k thut c nhng u im v nhc im ring, nn s dng nhiu dng k
thut mt lc.
Cc phng php no c qun tr bn hng p dng?
Nhiu nm trc, cc cng ty c yu cu nghin cu cc k thut d bo
m h thng s dng. Hai cuc nghin cu v s dng cc k thut d bo bn
hng ch ra rng hai k thut c qun tr bn hng s dng nhiu l loi
phng php cht lng, phn xt kin ngi thi hnh v hn hp lc lng bn
hng.
S p dng cc phng php cht lng cng c tm thy s thch hp
nhiu cng ty v ngnh cng nghip. K thut theo cht lng c a thch hn bi
v chng d thi hnh v chng i hi nhng ngi tham gia d bo suy ngh k
lng v ln cc k hoch. i vi cc cng ty cng nghip, vi hp ng c nhn
ln th trng, s ph thuc vo vic thi hnh v d bo lc lng bn hng l tt
nhin. Hn na, n xut hin nh yu cu v thng k thc hin mt gii hn cho
nhiu ngi s dng v gii thch ti sao t l s dng chng li qu thp.
Nh vy, Gim c bn hng cn phi nhn thc rng khng c mt qu trnh
d bo no hon ho, thm ch vi bn kim tra. Nu nhn vin v gim c
hon thin kin thc v th trng v l cc nh lp d bo khng b nh kin, th
phng php n gin nht v tt nht l n gin lp danh sch khch hng v
ngi t hng trong khu vc v nh gi kh nng bn ca h, ch yu l khi
lng bn tng lai. S trng hp ca cc khu vc v qun s to ra khi lng bn
v lng bn hng trong qun cho ti cui giai on.
Nhng do mi trng khng th lng trc v gim c cng nhn vin khng
phi l ngi d bo hon ho, nn pht sinh nhng im khng chnh xc. Tuy
nhin, gim c phi da vo s tng hp thng minh cc phng php theo cht
lng v s lng c c mt d bo c ngha i vi qun tr cp cao nh l
mt ti liu quan trng dng cho qu trnh ln k hoch v ra hn ngch.

Phng

php

Khng

d
1. D bo c lp vi qun tr cp

bo

trn?
2. D bo p dng phng php
mc tiu?
3. Cc k thut cu trc thu
nhn cc nh gi?
4. S dng cc chuyn gia c kinh
nghim gn y nht?
5. p dng t hai phng php tr
ln c d bo?
6. Ngi s dng c hiu cc
phng php d bo khng?
7. Cc d bo c c nhn xt
khng?
8. C chun b ring cc vn th
dng cho cc k hoch v d bo
khng?
Cc s liu

9. C ngn sch phn tch v

thc hin cc s liu khng?
10. C tn ti ngn hng thng tin
trung ng khng?
11. C s dng cc d bo kinh t
v m t tin gn y nht khng?

khng

trc c

lng 12. C cc gii hn cao nht v

thp nht?
13. Phn tch s lng tnh chnh
xc cho trc?
14. C cc d bo chun b cho cc
tng lai d kin?

Hnh 6-2. Bn kim tra d bo

2. ra hn ngch (ch tiu)

Cc dng hn ngch
Mt hn ngch c th c qui nh nh mt phn hoc t l ca mt tng s,
c yu cu t hoc ngha v hoc thuc quyn mt qun, bang, ngi, hoc mt
nhm c th. C hai loi hn ngch c th c qui nh trn c s kt qu v trn
c s hnh vi c x.
Hn ngch trn c s kt qu
S lng v s phong ph ca loi hn ngch theo kt qu rt thay i nh s lng
cc cng ty s dng loi hn ngch ny. C th nhm thnh ba dng: khi lng
hng bn tng i, khch hng v ti chnh.
Khi lng hng bn tng i. Trn c s mt khu vc, hn ngch hng bn
tng i l mt phn trong mc ch bn ca cng ty khu vc cho giai on bn
tip theo. c bit hn, mt hn ngch bn ca khu vc c th c xc nh nh h
s (t l) mc tiu bn hng chung ca cng ty c phn cng cho mt khu vc c
bit.
Hnh thc thng thng ca loi hn ngch ny l da trn tng khi lng
hng bn. Hn ngch ny l tng khi lng bn. Cc hn ngch loi ny d hiu
nht. Sau cng, nhn vin bn hng c thu mn v hun luyn bn. Hn
na, cc k hoch sn xut, ti chnh v nhn s ca cng ty ph thuc vo phm vi
t ti mt trnh tt v bn hng. Khng c g k l rng hn ngch trn c s
khi lng bn rt d c, khng nhng cc nhn vin bn hng chp nhn m cn
ton b mt cng ty. Hn ngch bn hng c th di hnh thc n v o lng
hoc khi lng bng tin.
Nhiu cng ty c sn phm cng nghip v tiu dng s dng cc hn ngch
bn hng c ra theo n v tin bi v h c danh mc cc sn phm rng, s
thay i hn hp sn phm v/ hoc bn m rng cc dng khch hng. Cc
nhn vin v gim c cng d hiu hn ngch theo tng s hng bn bng tin m
chng to ra mt c s chun n gin vic phn tch bn hng v tnh ton cc
t l chi ph. Hn na, khi mt nhn vin bn cc sn phm tinh vi, cch o bng
tin to s qui nh thng thng xc nh gi tr v s thc hin ca nhn vin
qun.
Trn c s khch hng. Cc hn ngch trn c s khch hng tp trung vo gn
gi hoc thu nhn khch hng hoc ngi t mua. H thng l s phn nh trc
tip chin lc chung ca cng ty. V d, khi chin lc chung qui nh t c mc

tiu chung bng tng dn s xm nhp th trng, cc hn ngch c th ra trn

c s tng khi lng bn i vi cc khch hng hin c. Mt khc, nu hng ny
ang c gng tng s dng kho tng v h thng phn phi, bng cch tham gia vo
cc th trng mi ni m h c s hin din khng tng xng th cc hn ngch c
th c ra bng qui nh nhn thm khch hng mi.
V ti chnh. C ba dng hn ngch v ti chnh. l: li nhun khu vc, tng
li gp v chi ph kim sot.
1. Li nhun khu vc. Cc cng ty nhn thc c rng h pht t nh li
nhun v cc nhn vin bn hng khng th lm vic m khng c lu ti chi
ph. V vy cng ty lp hn ngch c tnh trn c s li nhun rng, t l doanh li
trn ti sn c s dng (ROAM = return on assets managed) hoc thu nhp cn
li. Cc hn ngch ny c coi l l tng trong iu kin chng cha ng nhng
tng ca nh qun tr hng u v gim s phn cng ngho nn cc ngun bn
cho cc ni c tng li gp cao m li nhun thp.
Tuy nhin, ch tiu li nhun vng khng phi d dng tnh ton ng lc. N
lm cho c nhn vin v gim c kh bit c mc thc hin hin ti ca mt
nhn vin. Khng c thng tin cp nht, n gy kh khn cho gim c trong vic
pht hin cc chin lc bn hng ngho nn hoc s thc hin yu km ca nhn
vin, khi iu chnh c n th qu mun. Hn na, thng ngi nhn vin
khng kim sot c cc yu t tham gia vo s knh thnh li nhun hoc ROAM v
vy vic qun l chng ginh c li nhun c th s kh khn.
2. Tng li gp. Hn ngch tng li gp l mt cch m bo mt gii hn li
nhun trong khi ph v cc kh khn v tnh ton li nhun ca ring mt khu vc.
Mt s tht ca cuc sng l cc sn phm khc nhau to ra li nhun khc nhau.
mc cho h t xoay s lo liu ly, rt nhiu nhn vin bn hng s ch bn
nhng sn phm no d bn nht v khng bn nhng loi c kh nng sinh li
nhiu nht. Nh vy, hn ngch tng li gp c th hng dn nhn vin bn hng
c gng vo cc sn phm c tng li gp cao hn, c bit nu y c mi lin h
vi h thng (tr th lao).
V mt ti chnh c th kh qun l hn ngch tng li gp, khi cc tnh ton
li gp ca khu vc theo sn phm c th nng h thng k ton ca hng. Cc
nhn vin bn hng khng nhn thy ng lc thc y h di cc h thng ny bi
v h khng hiu rng qui trnh v cc bo co v vic thc hin c rt ra t h
thng k ton thng chm. Mt nghin cu khoa hc cho thy rng cc hng

ngnh cng nghip c s dng k hoch s d thu nhp tng s c mt s d

thp nht v c tin lng cao nht. Mt gii thch chp nhn c l cc sn phm
c s d cao i hi mt lng cc ngun bn hng khng cn i v nh vy kt
qu tng li nhun rng thp hn i vi cng ty.
3. Kim sot chi ph: C th y l hn ngch thng dng nht lin quan ti
mt ti chnh. Thng th cng ty lp hn ngch s chi ph bng tin cho cc nhn
vin cc lnh vc nh tng lng bn v tip khch. Trong thc t l cc gii
hn (limits) v ngn sch m ngi bn hng khng c vt qua. phn cui
chng ny phn lp ngn sch s bn n kim sot chi ph bn hng c th hn.
V d, nu dng tin mt ca cng ty cng thng th hn ngch chi ph s kim
sot dng chi tr tin ca lc lng bn hng. Hoc nu cng ty lp cc mc tiu
li nhun chung, chng c th t c nh phn phi hp l cc hn ngch v cc
sn phm c tng li gp cao hn. Bt k s kt hp no vi cc hn ngch ti
chnh, ngi gim c bn hng phi chu trch nhim m bo rng, cc nhn vin
thc hin c chng. Cc phc tp ca hn ngch ti chnh c phn nh trong
kt qu ca hai cuc nghin cu thc t lp hn ngch trong qun tr bn hng v n
cho thy khng c cng ty no s dng hn ngch ti chnh.
Hn ngch trn c s hnh vi c x
Hn ngch theo kt qu thng hng thng ti cc mc ch ti chnh tc thi
ca cng ty. Hn ngch theo hnh vi c x, i khi cn c gi hn ngch hot
ng, cho thy rng, c nhng hnh vi nht thit mt nhn vin cn phi thi hnh,
chng c th khng to ra kt qu bn hng ngay tc thi. Quan nim rng vic thc
hin cc hot ng cn thit s thanh ton sau cng cc khon tng doanh s v li
nhun. Hn ngch theo hnh vi c xt theo qui nh s cc hot ng cn thc
hin trong mt thi gian c th nh s ln gi bn trong ngy, s ln gi cho hng
trong ngy, s ln trng by bn l, s ln gi dch v, s th cho hng c gi i,
s cuc hi tho, s ln gp mt cc nh bn bun c t chc v cc hi tho
cho hng.
i vi hn ngch hot ng c hai vn quan trng ni ln. Th nht, chng
ch o lng s lng cng sc b ra, ch khng o cht lng. Th hai, nhn vin
bn hng cn phi ghi ra cc hot ng ny bng cch s dng mt th tc bo co
ring bit. iu ny c ngha cng vic giy t cho c gim c v nhn vin s
nhiu hn. Tng t, s quyn r "la o" ca nhn vin c th cao, n c th
ph v nng n mi quan h qua li gia gim c v nhn vin. Tuy nhin mt s

hn ngch hot ng nh "Mt nhn vin bn hng cn thc hin khong tm ln gi

bn trong mt ngy" tip tc c s dng mt cch c hiu qu. Chng cn c
s dng cn thn, hoc chng c th lp li trong tnh ton s lin tc ca hot ng
v b qua mc ch c bn lu di ca h.
Dng hn ngch thng dng nht l da trn khi lng bn. Trong thc tin
cc cng ty thng s dng nhiu dng hn ngch bi v khng c mt loi ring bit
no c p dng thnh cng cho tt c cc trch nhim ca nhn vin bn hng
khu vc.
Mc ch ca hn ngch
Hn ngch c th c ba mc ch chnh: Kim sot, khuyn khch v nh
gi.
Kim sot
Mt gim c bn hng chu trch nhim v cc nhn vin bn hng trn thc
t khng th ginh tt c thi gian ca mnh i quan st h, hng dn lm vic,
to cho h cm hng, v lm cho h chc chn lm nhng g h cn phi lm. Mt
h thng hn ngch c ra tt c th cung cp mt cng c thay th kim
sot hng nga trong hot ng qun tr.
Ban qun tr c th ra cc bn ghi nh ni vi nhn vin h cn phi gi bn
cc khch hng mi, m bo chc chn s ln gi dch v, b ra rt nhiu ngy
trong thng thc hin gi cho bn cho cc nhn vin phn phi i l, gim thp
cc chi ph cn thit hoc tng cng cc sn phm quan trng trong danh mc sn
phm. Cc gim c bn hng c th sp xp thi gian v sc lc chnh m bo
chc chn rng cc nhaan vin thi hnh cc hng dn ny.
Mt phng php thit lp hn ngch c kt qu hn trong hn ngch c phn
nh cc mc tiu qun tr ny v t chc cho nhn vin c kh nng tnh ton chng.
V d, mt cng ty yu cu cc nhn vin bn hng t chc t nht 10 cuc gp mt
bn bun trong ba thng. C nhn vin v gim c u bit hn ngch v cng
thc hin v m bo chc chn t c hn ngch, cng ty pht hin l phng
php ny c hiu lc v tc dng hn l cc bn vit ghi nh t cp qun tr cao
nht.
Khuyn khch

Nhiu cng ty kt hp hn ngch vo cc chng trnh b p th lao ca

mnh. Vi d, tht khng bnh thng i vi mt cng ty khi n i hi nhn vin bn
hng t c mt hn ngch qui nh trc khi cc khon hoa hng c sinh ra.
Mt s hng cng sp xp tng lng xng ng trn c s s lng bn hng vt
hn ngch ca nm trc. Nh vy hon thnh hn ngch khng tch ri vi ng
vin ti chnh.
Phn ln cc nhn vin bn hng c gng l nhng ngi rt thi ua v hng
ti t mc ch. H thch c cc mc tiu v tiu chun v thc hin. Thc t l, cc
nhn vin coi thc hin tt hn khi h cn phi thc hin chng cc hn ngch cao,
kh hn l nu h c php la chn mt loi khc thp hn. Mt hn ngch chnh
xc nh "bn 75 ngn la gi tr my bm v 40 ngn la mng dn nc" c th
khi ng loi lao ng vin rng "hy lm tt hn qu sau" s khng bao gi to ra.
nh gi
Cc hn ngch bn, hot ng v ti chnh c th c s dng trong nh gi
thc hin ca nhn vin bn hng. Mt nghin cu cho thy rng mt s lng ln
cc cng ty c nghin cu c hai ngnh cng nghip sn xut v dch v s
dng cc n v o c lin quan ti bn hng trong nh gi lc lng bn hng
nhng li s dng tng i t cc ch s c lin h vi hot ng, thm ch cc tiu
chun lin quan ti li nhun li cng t hn.
Cc hn ngch c ra cho tng nhn vin bn hng v sau s thc hin
c kim tra v so snh vi cc hn ngch . Cc nhn vin bn hng khng t
c hn ngch c th nhn c s quan tm nhiu hn ca nh qun tr. V d,
nu mi nhn vin c hn ngch bn hng nm l 100.000 la tnh c khi lng
phn phi trong mt nm, c chia ra theo qu l 25.000 l lm cho gim c
nh gi tnh lin tc trong thc hin ca tng nhn vin. Nhng ngi khng t
c hn ngch qu c th c cp qun tr cao hn hng dn v ng vin.
ra hn ngch v thi hnh
Cc hn ngch c nhn c thit lp hai mc trong phm vi mt t chc:
mc chung (chin lc) v mc gim c bn hng c s (chin thut), xem
hnh 6-3.
Chnh sch chung v mc chin lc

B phn iu hnh hay bn hng c trch nhim i vi vic xc nh hn

ngch cn phi la chn loi hn ngch s dng v xc nh tm quan trng c
lin quan ca cc loi hn ngch y.

H 6-3. Lp hn ngch
La chn loi hn ngch. Quyt nh s dng hn ngch bn hng, hot ng
hay ti chnh ph thuc vo chnh cc yu t nh mc ch lu di ca hng, c tnh
ca th trng v ca sn phm, chu k mua ca khch hng, tnh linh hot ca h
thng k ton v thu thp d kin v vo c tnh ca lc lng bn hng. Cc v d
sau y nu ln cc trng hp c th xc nh loi hn ngch tt nht.
- Cc hn ngch ti chnh ch nhiu n tc v tnh chnh xc ca h
thng k ton trong cc bo co thng k tng qut ca mt khu vc. Khng c
kh nng , cc hn ngch ti chnh c ngha rng cc hnh vi trc tip ca nhn
vin bn hng khng th tin cy c.
- Cc iu kin th trng n nh vi cc khu vc hot ng gn vi nng lc
bn ca cng ty cn c cc hn ngch chi ph bn cnh cc hn ngch bn hng. Cc
khi lng bn n nh hn th kim sot chi ph lin tc hn s c li nhun trn
mc gii hn di.

- Cc hn ngch chi ph phi c s dng rt cn thn nhng th trng c

sc p cnh tranh ln v tnh kin nh v tnh ton b gim thp. S tp trung gim
thp chi ph di nhng iu kin ny ca mt nhn vin c th khng tiu ph vn
cho hn ngch v nh mt lng hng bn cho khch hng tng lai.
- Khi chu k mua ca khch hng di v/ hoc cc sn phm yu cu phi c
dch v v h tr b sung, cc hn ngch hot ng c th thch hp hn hn ngch
bn.
- Cc hn ngch bn theo n v o lng s tt hn tnh bng tin khi gi c
hay thay i v ngoi s kim sot ca nhn vin hay ca cng ty.
Xc nh tm quan trng tng i ca tng loi hn ngch c s dng.
Quyt nh ny coi nh mt hng s dng nhiu loi hn ngch, hng ny cn phi
quyt nh tnh ton chng nh th no. S ra nhng suy xt trc ny l mt
quyt nh qun tr tt yu c c cp qun tr cao nht hoc cp c s thc hin
trn c s chin lc ca cng ty v kinh nghim iu hnh. V d, nu mt cng ty
ang c gng to mt phn th trng thng qua pht trin cc khch hng mi, th
sau mt hn ngch v khi lng hng bn theo khch hng mi s c ra
trn c s nng lc tng khu vc. Nu chin lc chung l xy dng s thm nhp
trong khch hng ang c, th sau hn ngch v khi lng bn trc tip s l ti
cao.
Trch nhim ca gim c bn hng c s
Xc nh trnh ca tng hn ngch tng khu vc. Mt khi cng ty quyt
nh s dng loi hn ngch v tnh quan trng ca chng, s lng thc t cn phi
c phn b n tng khu vc v nhn vin theo tng loi ngch c s dng Kt qu hoc hnh vi.
1. Kt qu.
V d: nu hn ngch kt qu l tng s bn, mt phng php m mt gim
c c th p dng l bt u t t l tng bn hng c d bo ca cng ty giao
cho qun ny vo nm ti v p dng n tng t vi cc khu vc trong qun .
Cng n gin v d nh cc cch ny, ly mc tiu ca cng ty tng 5% v i hi
tt c cc khu vc u t tng 5%, nh vy tt c cc khu vc v c nhn tt yu
nh nhau. Thc cht, do s khc bit trong kh nng ca nhn vin v s khc nhau

r rt gia cc khu vc nn mt s khu vc c th t c cao hn 5% v mt s

khc th t hn.
Mt phng php khc l php tng ng i vi phng php t di ln ca
d bo bn hng. Gim c bn hng bt u t lng bn hng d kin tng ca
cng ty cho qun. Sau anh (ch) ta lm vic vi tng nhn vin phn tch tng
khon sn phm xc nh r khi lng bn hng tng m nhn vin c th
t c. Sau tng s khi lng bn c so snh vi hn ngch ca qun nu
con s khng t, ngi gim c li lp li qu trnh ny cho ti khi tng s lng
bn ca cc khu vc bng hn ngch ca qun. Nu nh cng ty s dng phng
php d bo t di ln, thng gim c cp trn sa li d bo ca qun t
c cc mc ch v chin lc chung.
2. Hnh vi.
Cng vic ra mt hn ngch hnh vi i hi nhng kin thc chuyn su v
chnh xc v vai tr quan trng ca cc hnh vi i vi mt hot ng c kt qu ca
bt k khu vc no. Hn na, gim c v nhn vin cng cn phi thch hp vi cc
hn ngch hnh vi ny thit lp cc yu cu ca mt khu vc. Thng thng cc
cng ty s ra cc hn ngch tng qut v cho php gim c v nhn vin trnh
by t m cc s khc bit ring ca khu vc.
iu ha nhng s khc bit. Bt k mt d bo v ngn sch ca mt qun s
c gim c cp cao chp nhn ch khi n ph hp vi cc mc ch ti chnh
chung, mt gim c bn hng c s cn phi m bo chc rng tng cc hn
ngch cho tng nhn vin c bo co t c hoc b sung vo h thng hn
ngch ca qun mnh. iu ny rt quan trng i vi cc hn ngch kt qu, n
nh hng trc tip ti cc mc ch thc hin chung v cc hot ng c thi hnh
cc phng, ban khc nh phng ln k hoch sn xut (Tt nhin, l cho rng
gim c vng ra cc hn ngch khc nhau cho tng qun trn cng mt c s).
Cc quy nh trong lp hn ngch
ra mt h thng hn ngch, thi hnh v nh gi chng l mt qu trnh
vn hnh khng n gin. Mt lot cc quy nh trc tip tc ng n tnh hiu qu
ca hn ngch v n phng php m lc lng bn hng thi hnh chng.
Ci g to nn mt chng trnh hn ngch tt?

Mt chng trnh hn ngch c coi l tt nu trong cc hn ngch c

ra thch hp, c kh nng thc thi, d hiu v y .
Thch hp.
Cc hn ngch khng da vo cc s liu khoa hc hoc khng thch ng vi
cc trch nhim ca nhn vin bn hng hoc vi cc mc tiu ca cng ty c th,
mc ti t nht, lm "nn lng" lc lng bn hng. Cn mc tt nht l chng b
qua. V d: nu mt cng ty hng nm c mt hn ngch v s lng ln gi bn
trong ngy, n cn c xem xt k xc nh nu mc cc ln gi hoc
tng ca mt hn ngch tip c ra trong mi trng bn hng hin ti.
Kh nng thc thi.
Vn bn lun y l c cn cc hn ngch v gi tr cao nht nh gi
mc hon thnh ca tng ngi hoc ro chn thc s l tt c cc nhn vin u
mun t hn ngch vi sc lc bnh thng. Cc hn ngch cao c th c coi nh
mt khuyn khch mnh i vi cc nhn vin v tng cng s tn nhim ca gim
c trong kh nng thc hin cc hn ngch ca nhn vin. Nhng nu hn ngch
qu cao, cc nhn vin c th s khng c gng bi v h tin rng hn ngch l mc
ch khng th t c hoc h c th gian di t c hn ngch. C s tha
hip rng cc hn ngch nn cao nhng c th t c vi hao ph lao ng c cht
lng.
Mt nghin cu so snh mt s cc qun bn hng cho thy cc qun tt nht
l cc qun c c gim c v nhn vin vi cc mc ch cao. Nh vy, s xc nh
hn ngch cc mc cao cho nhn vin cng i hi ngi gim c phi to ra
mt mi trng m cc mc ch cao c coi l ch tiu. Cc mi trng thc
hin cao ny cng l c trng ca dng qun tr h tr cng vi s ra mc ch
nhm mnh.
D hiu.
Nguyn tc "Hy gi cho n gin" tuy c nhng lun lun ph hp vi mt
chng trnh hn ngch. Nu mt h thng hn ngch qu phc tp th lc lng bn
hng s khng hiu n v mt s lng ln cc nhn vin c th s b qua chng.
Hy thit lp hn ngch vi s li cun nhn vin hoc s tham gia tch cc ca h,
hoc xc nh mt cch r rng tng thnh phn v gii thch ngha ca h v s
nh hng ca chng ti nhn vin v mt ti chnh hoc trong nhng hot ng
hng ngy ca h.

Tnh y .
Mt chng trnh hn ngch tt s bao trm tt c cc tiu chun c s dng
hng dn, kim sot v nh gi lc lng bn hng. Nu c mt kha cnh
khng c hn ngch cp ti ging nh cc kha cnh khc, tt nhin mt nhn
vin s nhn thc rng cng ty khng tin rng n quan trng. C th nhn vin ny
s khng b nhiu cng sc quan tm ti kha cnh .
S tham gia ca lc lng bn hng vo vic thit lp hn ngch
Nh nu ra trc y, cc cng ty thng bo s p dng tch cc hnh thc
tham gia cc qu trnh d bo ca cc nhn vin bn hng. Phng php tng t
cch t di ln c p dng trong ra hn ngch c khong 56% cc cng ty
c nghin cu lin kt vi nhn vin bn hng trong qu trnh ra hn ngch.
kin chung l cc nhn vin s trnh cc nh gi mang tnh cht nh kin trong
cc d bo v hn ngch nu s tr cng ca h b gii hn vo cc nh gi . Tuy
nhin, mt cuc kho st thi hnh bn hng cho thy, h khng tri qua nhng nh
kin ny. Thc t, c mt cng ty pht hin ra rng cc nhn vin c mt cam kt
ln hn i vi cc hn ngch ca h khi h tham gia vo xc nh cc hn ngch.
Tt c cc tnh hung ny cho thy hn ngch c ra bi hai pha gim c v
nhn vin, ch khng phi bi mt nhm cc lc lng bn hng.
iu g xy ra nu h khng thi hnh hn ngch?
iu g s xy ra khi hn ngch c ra, cc nhn vin thng hiu chng,
nhng hn ngch vn khng c hon thnh? 81% cc cng ty c nghin cu ch
ra rng khng c g xy ra qu nhiu ngay lp tc i vi nhng ai khng t c
hn ngch. iu ny cho thy nguyn nhn khng thc hin hn ngch rt quan
trng. Nu n bn ngoi s kim sot ca nhn vin th li lm sau c b
qua. Nu nhn vin chu trch nhim th cc hnh vi iu chnh c th c thc hin
sau khi nh gi thi hnh.
Hn ngch v thc tin qun tr
Trong nhiu mi trng bn hng, cc hn ngch l mt thnh phn ch cht
trong qun tr lc lng bn hng c hiu qu. Cc hn ngch c th l cc mc tiu
ca chng trnh qun tr theo mc tiu. Chng c th gip ci thin kh nng sinh
li ca qun v ca cng ty nh hng cc c gng ca nhn vin ti bn cc sn
phm c tng s thu nhp cao hn. Cui cng, chng to c s mt k hoch tr
cng bn hng tch cc c th c thi hnh.

Nh vy, ra hn ngch khng phi l mt khoa hc chnh xc. Nhng bt

u t d bo bn hng v nh gi cc yu t tc ng trong cc khu vc, cc hn
ngch bn hng v hn ngch hot ng hin thc c th c qui nh cho tng
nhn vin v tng khu vc. Tm quan trng c bit ca cc hn ngch trong vic
thit k cc chng trnh tr cng v nh gi thc hin ca nhn vin cho thy
chng cn c cc gim c bn hng thit lp mt cch k lng p dng c
hiu qu.
3. Lp ngn sch
Th no l mt ngn sch bn hng?
Trong ngha hp, ngn sch bn hng l mt bn lit k cc yu t chi ph theo
chc nng c lin quan ti bn hng c nhn mt vng lnh th hoc vng hot
ng. Mt ngn sch thng thng xc nh mt hn mc bng tin m cc nhn
vin bn hng v gim c c th chi ph theo cc hng mc nh tip khch hng,
tng lng bn v i li. Nhng hn mc ny c th c xt bng tin theo cc mc
trong mt ngy nh v thc phm, khu phn n .
mt cng ty, ngi gim c c trch nhim ti thiu trong lnh vc ny v
vy khng c cc danh mc hot ng khng c ngun ngn sch. cc cng ty
khc, tuy vy, cc s lng chnh ca ngun tin c dng qung co v tr chi
ph ngi i tuyn bn ngoi v gim c c mt phm vi rng v s phn b chng
nh th no.
Xy dng mt ngn sch
Ngn sch c th c cng ty hoc gim c bn hng xy dng. Mt cch l
tng th ngn sch bn hng ca qun c hnh thnh nh cc mc tiu xc
nh cho qun v sau to ngun tin t t c cc mc tiu . Cch ny
c bit n nh phng php mc tiu v nhim v ca lp ngn sch v thng
c xem nh mt phng php lp ngn sch tt. Thng thng hn, cng ty bt
u t xem xt cc khon chi ph ca nm trc, so snh chng vi khi lng bn
d kin v hn ngch ca nm . Cc chi ph theo k hoch cho ti cui nm hin
hnh c xem xt ln hoc xung trn c s d bo bn hng mi ca qun v hn
ngch mi, v th cc mc tiu li nhun chung theo k hoch t c.
Hiu mt ngn sch c s dng nh th no?

u tin khi mt ngn sch c thit k, n l mt b phn ca k hoch, bi

v mi yu t u cha ng mt s lng tin ginh cho mt chc nng hot ng
c th ca nm ti. T d kin k hoch, m hnh bn hng v chi ph cho gim c
qun c lp thnh ch tiu. M hnh bn l hn ngch (s ti thiu) m anh (ch) ta
mong mun t c v vt n, cn m hnh chi ph l ph tn cao nht m anh
(ch) ta khng c vt qua.
Gim c bn hng cn phi thng xuyn lm vic vi ngn sch c d
ton cho cc b phn. Gim c nh gi cc chi ph ca gim c v nhn vin, cn
i li nhun d kin vi cc qu sn c theo cc khon mc trong ngn sch.
Thng thng khi ngn sch tng s i hi gim c "bn" s tng ny cho gim
c cp cao, khi thc hin cc chi ph hin ti ngi gim c cn phi d kin cc
qu cho cc cam kt tng lai.