Input Modeling

4 Steps to Input Modeling

1.

Collect data from real system

Substantial time and resources

When data is unavailable (due to time
limit or no existing process):
Use expert opinion
Make educated guess based from
knowledge of the process

4 Steps to Input Modeling

2.

Identify probability distribution to

represent input process

Develop frequency distribution or

histogram
Choose a family of distributions

4 Steps to Input Modeling

3.

Choose the parameters of the

distribution family.

4.

These parameters are estimated from the

data.

Evaluate the chosen distribution and its

parameters.

Goodness of fit test : chi-square or KS test.

This is an iterative process of selecting and
rejecting the different distributions until the
desired is found.
If none is found, create an empirical
distribution.

Data Collection Problems

Inter-arrival times are not
homogenous
Service times which are dependent
on other factors
Service time termination
Machine breakdowns

Data Problems with

Simulation
No

Data
Old Data
Missing Data
Guesstimates
Erroneous Data
No resource

Simplifying

assumptions
Using Averages
Outliers
Optimistic Data
Politics

Consequence of Data Problems

Bad

data equals bad models

The Best models fail under bad
data
Successful simulation is unlikely
with bad data

Guidelines in Data
Collection
Always

question data
Electronic data does mean good
data.
Know the source
Allocate sufficient time to collect
and analyze data

Suggestions to facilitate
data collection:
1.

Plan

Collect data while pre-observing

Create forms and be prepared to
modify them when needed
Video tape is possible and extract
date later

Suggestions to facilitate
data collection:
2.

Analyze.

3.

Try to combine homogenous data.

4.
5.
6.

Determine if data is adequate.

Do not collect superfluous data.
Use two sample t-test.

Be wary of data censoring.

Look for relationships between variables
using a scatter plot.
Be aware of autocorrelations within a
sequence of observations.