Bicol University Gubat Campus

Gubat, Sorsogon

Prepared by:

Chad Lowe V. Villarroya

Prepared for:

Prof. Marlyn Padre

Climate Change Page 1

Climate change

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over

periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a
change in the average weather or a change in the distribution of weather
events around an average (for example, greater or fewer extreme weather
events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur
across the whole Earth.
In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate
change usually refers to changes in modern climate (see global warming).
For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the
data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate
change over the past century, see attribution of recent climate change.

Causes
Factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings. These
include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the
Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift, and changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change
feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts
of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in
reaction to climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the
climate system can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new external
forcings.
Plate tectonics
Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates
reconfigures global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This
can affect both global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean
circulation.[1]
The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and
therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas
are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the
globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent example of
tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of
Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean dynamics of
what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice
cover.[2][3] Earlier, during the Carboniferous period, plate tectonics may have
triggered the large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation.[4]
Climate Change Page 2
Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during
the time of the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that
the existence of the supercontinent was conductive to the establishment of
monsoons.[5]
More locally, topography can influence climate. The existence of mountains
(as a product of plate tectonics through mountain-building) can cause
orographic precipitation. Humidity generally decreases and diurnal
temperature swings generally increase with increasing elevation. Mean
temperature and the length of the growing season also decrease with
increasing elevation. This, along with orographic precipitation, is important
for the existence of low-latitude alpine glaciers and the varied flora and
fauna along at different elevations in montane ecosystems.
The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of
the oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally
lower in coastal areas than they are inland. A larger supercontinent will
therefore have more area in which climate is strongly seasonal than will
several smaller continents and/or island arcs.
Solar output

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on

observations of sunspots and beryllium isotopes.
The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long-
and short-term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global
climate.
Early in Earth's history the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does
today. With the same atmospheric composition as exists today, liquid water
should not have existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the
presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean[6][7] and Archean[8][6]
eons, leading to what is known as the faint young sun paradox.[9]
Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere,
with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist[10]
Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the
sun increased and atmospheric composition changed, with the oxygenation

Climate Change Page 3

of the atmosphere being the most notable alteration. The luminosity of the
sun will continue to increase as it follows the main sequence. These changes
in luminosity, and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and
then a white dwarf, will have large effects on climate, with the red giant
phase possibly ending life on Earth.
Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar
cycle[11] and longer-term modulations.[12] The 11-year sunspot cycle produces
low-latitude warming and high-latitude cooling over limited areas of
statistical significance in the stratosphere with an amplitude of
approximately 1.5°C. But although "variability associated with the 11-yr solar
cycle has a significant influence on stratospheric temperatures. ...there is
still no consensus on the exact magnitude and spatial structure".[13] These
stratospheric variations are consistent with the idea that excess equatorial
heating can drive thermal winds. In the near-surface troposphere, there is
only a small change in temperature (on the order of a tenth of a degree, and
only statistically significant in limited areas underneath the peaks in
stratospheric zonal wind speed) due to the 11-year solar cycle. Solar
intensity variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the
Little Ice Age,[14] and for some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950.
The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it
differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages
and evolves, with some studies pointing toward solar radiation increases
from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming.[15] [16]
Orbital variations
Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the amount of sunlight
reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. The
former is similar to solar variations in that there is a change to the power
input from the sun to the Earth system. The latter is due to how the orbital
variations affect when and where sunlight is received by the Earth. The three
types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in
the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis.
Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large
impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and
interglacial periods,[17] their correlation with the advance and retreat of the
Sahara,[17] and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.[18]
Volcanism
Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of
the Earth to its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are
examples of volcanic processes which release gases and/or particulates into
the atmosphere.
Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per
century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar
radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of

Climate Change Page 4

Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th
century[19] (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta[20]) affected the climate
substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F). The
eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer.[21]
Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few
times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass
extinctions.[22]
Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long
(geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust
and mantle, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other
geological carbon dioxide sinks. According to the US Geological Survey,
however, estimates are that human activities generate more than 130 times
the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[23]
Ocean variability

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term
fluctuations (years to a few decades) such as the El Niño–Southern
Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and
the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability rather than climate
change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as
thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out
a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term
redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.
Human influences

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment. In

some cases the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct
and unambiguous (for example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity),
whilst in other instances it is less clear. Various hypotheses for human-
induced climate change have been argued for many years. Presently the
scientific consensus on climate change is that human activity is very likely
the cause for the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the

Climate Change Page 5

past several decades.[24] Consequently, the debate has largely shifted onto
ways to reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to change
that has already occurred.[25]
Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels
due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols
(particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other
factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture[26] and
deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play - both separately and
in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate.

Physical evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be
used to reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of
surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 1800s. For
earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are
inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation,
ice cores,[27] dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology.
Historical & Archaeological evidence
Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding
changes in settlement and agricultural patterns.[28] Archaeological evidence,
oral history and historical documents can offer insights into past changes in
the climate. Climate change effects have been linked to the collapse of
various civilisations.[29]
Glaciers

Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the
last 450,000 years
Glaciers are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change,[30]
advancing when climate cools (for example, during the period known as the
Little Ice Age) and retreating when climate warms. Glaciers grow and shrink,
both contributing to natural variability and amplifying externally forced

Climate Change Page 6

changes. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s.
Initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps, this compilation has
resulted in a detailed inventory of more than 100,000 glaciers covering a
total area of approximately 240,000 km2 and, in preliminary estimates, for
the recording of the remaining ice cover estimated to be around
445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on
glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide
have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in
the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and
again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.[31] Mass balance data
indicate 17 consecutive years of negative glacier mass balance.

Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 years

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene
(approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles.
The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years.
[32]
Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of
continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the
climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger
events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may
also influence climate without the forcing effect of orbital changes.
Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material - including
organic matter that may be accurately dated - recording the periods in which
a glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological
techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil
or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may also be precisely
ascertained.
Vegetation
A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur
given a change in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a
mild change in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth,
resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of
airborne CO2. Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may

Climate Change Page 7

well[weasel words] result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification
in certain circumstances.[33]
Ice cores
Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice
sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level
variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2
variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern
environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant
indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and continue to provide
valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern
atmospheric conditions.
Dendrochronology
Dendochronology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine
the age of a tree. From a climate change viewpoint, however,
Dendochronology can also indicate the climatic conditions for a given
number of years. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered
growing period, whilst thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and
less-than-ideal growing conditions.
Pollen analysis
Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including
pollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant
species, which vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of
plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since
the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they
resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different sedimentation
levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities;
which are dependent on climate conditions.[34][35]
Insects
Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different
species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given
the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered
significantly over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of
the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are
found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.[36]
Sea level change
Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been
estimated using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time
to give a long-term average. More recently, altimeter measurements — in
combination with accurately determined satellite orbits — have provided an
improved measurement of global sea level change.[37]
Climate change: How do we know?

Climate Change Page 8

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in
ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that
atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Source:
NOAA)

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last
650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat,
with the abrupt end of the last ice age about seven thousand years ago,
marking the beginning of the modern climate era —and of human
civilization. Most of these changes are attributed to the very small changes
in the Earth’s orbit changing the amount of solar energy the Earth receives.

The current warming

trend is of particular "Scientific evidence
significance because for warming of the
most of it is very likely climate system is
human-induced and unequivocal."
proceeding at a rate that
is unprecedented in the - Intergovernmental
past 1,300 years.1 Panel on Climate
Change
Earth-orbiting satellites
and other technological
advances have enabled
scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of
information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. Studying
these climate data collected over many years reveal the signals of a
changing climate.
Certain facts about Earths climate are not in dispute:

Climate Change Page 9

 • The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was
demonstrated in the mid-19th century.2 Their ability to affect the
transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific
basis of many JPL-designed instruments, such as AIRS. Increased levels
of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response.
• Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain
glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in solar
output, in the Earth’s orbit, and in greenhouse gas levels. They also
show that in the past, large changes in climate have happened very
quickly, geologically-speaking: in tens of years, not in millions or even
thousands.
The evidence for abrupt climate change is compelling:

Global sea level rose about 17

centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last
century. In the last decade,
however, the rate of rise nearly
doubled.3

Aitutaki atoll: Vulnerable to rising sea

levels

Levels of Carbon Dioxide are higher

today than at anytime in past
650,000 years.

Scientists reconstruct past climate

The Keeling Curve shows a pattern of
steadily increasing carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere since 1958.
conditions through evidence
preserved in tree rings, coral reefs
and ice cores. For example, ice
cores removed from 2 miles deep in
the Antarctic contain atmospheric
samples trapped in tiny air bubbles
that date as far back as 650,000
years. These samples have allowed
scientists to construct a historical
record of greenhouse gas
concentration stretching back
hundreds of thousands of years.

Climate Change Page 10

 Global surface air temperatures
rose three-quarters of a degree
Celsius (almost one and a half
degrees Fahrenheit) in the last
century, but at twice that amount in
the past 50 years. Eleven of the last
12 years (1995-2006) are the
warmest since accurate
recordkeeping began in 1850.4
The effects of climate change will
likely include more frequent droughts
in some areas and heavier
precipitation in others.

The oceans have absorbed much of

this increased heat, with the top
700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of
ocean showing warming of 0.18
degrees Fahrenheit since 1955.

The Greenland and Antarctic ice

sheets have shrunk in both area
and mass. Data from JPLs Gravity
Recovery and Climate Experiment
show Greenland lost 150 to 250
cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic
miles) of ice per year between 2002
and 2006, while Antarctica lost
about 152 cubic kilometers (36
cubic miles) of ice between 2002
and 2005.

Flowing meltwater from the Greenland

ice sheet

Climate Change Page 11

 Mountain glaciers and snow cover
have declined on average in both
hemispheres, and may disappear
altogether in certain regions of our
planet, such as the Himalayas, by
2030.5

The disappearing snowcap of Mount

Kilimanjaro, from space.

Many species of plants and animals

are already responding to global
warming, moving to higher
elevations or closer to the poles.

Precipitation and evaporation

patterns over the oceans have
changed, as evidenced by
increased ocean salinity near the
equator and decreased salinity at
higher latitudes.6

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Climate Change Page 12

The greenhouse effect
Most scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is
human expansion of the "greenhouse effect" -- warming that results when
the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space.
Certain gases in the atmosphere behave like the glass on a greenhouse,
allowing sunlight to enter, but blocking heat from escaping. Long-lived
gases, remaining semi-permanently in the atmosphere, which do not
respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are described as
"forcing" climate change whereas gases, such as water, which respond
physically or chemically to changes in temperature are seen as "feedbacks."
Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include:
• Water vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it
acts as a feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's
atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and
precipitation, making these some of the most important feedback
mechanisms to the greenhouse effect.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2). A minor but very important component of the
atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such
as respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities
such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels.
Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by a third
since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important long-
lived "forcing" of climate change.
• Methane. A hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources
and human activities, including the decomposition of wastes in
landfills, agriculture, and especially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant
digestion and manure management associated with domestic
livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a far more
active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much
less abundant in the atmosphere.
• Nitrous oxide. A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation
practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers,
fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Synthetic compounds of entirely of industrial
origin used in a number of applications, but now largely regulated in
production and release to the atmosphere by international agreement for
their ability to contribute to destruction of the ozone layer. They are also
greenhouse gases .

Climate Change Page 13

Not enough greenhouse effect: The planet Mars has a very thin
atmosphere, nearly all carbon dioxide. Because of the low atmospheric
pressure, and with little to no methane or water vapor to reinforce the weak
greenhouse effect, Mars has a largely frozen surface that shows no evidence
of life.

http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

The current and future consequences of global change

The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent
wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions and an increase in the
number, duration and intensity of tropical storms.

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the

environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up
earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner.
Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global
climate change are now occuring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise
and longer, more intense heat waves.

Climate Change Page 14

Scientists have high
confidence that global
temperatures will "Taken as a whole,
continue to rise for the range of
decades to come, largely published evidence
due to greenhouse indicates that the net
gasses produced by damage costs of
human activities. The climate change are
Intergovernmental Panel likely to be significant
on Climate Change and to increase over
(IPCC), which includes time."
more than 1,300 - Intergovernmental
scientists from the Panel on Climate
United States and other Change
countries, forecasts a
temperature rise of 2.5
to 10 degrees Fahrenheit
over the next century.
According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on individual
regions will vary over time and with the ability of different societal and
environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to change.
The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8
to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990 levels will
produce beneficial impacts in some regions and harmful ones in others. Net
annual costs will increase over time as global temperatures increase.
"Taken as a whole," the IPCC states, "the range of published evidence
indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be
significant and to increase over time."
Below are some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the
IPCC:
• North America: Decreasing snowpack in the western mountains; 5-10
percent increase in yields of rain-fed agriculture in some regions;
increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in cities that
currently experience them.
• Latin America: Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in
eastern Amazonia; risk of significant biodiversity loss through species
extinction in many tropical areas; significant changes in water
availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.
• Europe: Increased risk of inland flash floods; more frequent coastal
flooding and increased erosion from storms and sea level rise; glacial
retreat in mountainous areas; reduced snow cover and winter tourism;
extensive species losses; reductions of crop productivity in southern
Europe.

Climate Change Page 15

 • Africa: By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to
be exposed to increased water stress; yields from rain-fed agriculture
could be reduced by up to 50 percent in some regions by 2020;
agricultural production, including access to food, may be severely
compromised.
• Asia: Freshwater availability projected to decrease in Central, South,
East and Southeast Asia by the 2050s; coastal areas will be at risk due
to increased flooding; death rate from disease associated with floods
and droughts expected to rise in some regions.

Unresolved questions about Earth's climate

Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging

Telescope (EIT) image of the sun with
a huge, handle-shaped prominence,
taken in 1999. While there is no
evidence of a change trend in solar
output over the past half century,
long-term changes in solar output are
not well-understood.

This website presents a data-rich view of climate and a discussion of how

that data fits together into the scientists' current picture of our changing
climate. But there's a great deal that we don't know about the future of
Earth's climate and how climate change will affect humans.
For convenience and clarity, climate scientists separate things that affect
climate change into two categories: forcings and feedbacks (see sidebar at
right).
Also, climate scientists often discuss "abrupt climate change," which includes
the possibility of "tipping points" in the Earth's climate. Climate appears to
have several states in which it is relatively stable over long periods of time.
But when climate moves between those states, it can do so quickly
(geologically speaking), in hundreds of years and even, in a handful of cases,
in only a few decades. These rapid 'state changes' are what scientists mean
by abrupt climate change. They are much more common at regional scales
than at the global scale, but can be global. State changes have triggers, or
"tipping points," that are related to feedback processes. In what's probably
the single largest uncertainty in climate science, scientists don't have much
confidence that they know what those triggers are.

Climate Change Page 16

Below is an explanation of just a few other important uncertainties about
climate change, organized according to the categories forcing and feedback.
This list isn't exhaustive. It is intended to illustrate the kinds of questions
that scientists still ask about climate.
Forcings
1. Solar Irradiance. The sun has a well-known eleven-year irradiance
cycle that produces a .08% variation in output.1 Solar irradiance has
been measured by satellite daily since the late 1970s, and this known
solar cycle is incorporated into climate models. There is some evidence
from proxy measurements-sunspot counts going back centuries,
measurements from ancient trees, and others-that solar output varies
over longer periods of time, too. While there is currently no evidence of
a trend in solar output over the past half century, because there are no
direct observations of solar output prior to the 1970s, climate scientists
do not have much confidence that they understand longer-term solar
changes. A number of U.S. and international spacecraft study the sun.
2. Aerosols, dust, smoke, and soot. These come from both human
and natural sources. They also have very different effects on climate.
Sulfate aerosols, which result from burning coal, biomass, and volcanic
eruptions, tend to cool the Earth. Increasing industrial emissions of
sulfates is believed to have caused a cooling trend in the Northern
Hemisphere from the 1940s to the 1970s. But other kinds of particles
have the opposite effect. The global distribution of aerosols has only
been tracked for about a decade from the ground and from satellites,
but those measurements cannot yet reliably distinguish between types
of particulates. So aerosol forcing is another substantial uncertainty in
predictions of future climate.
Feedbacks
3. Clouds. Clouds have an enormous impact on Earth's climate,
reflecting back into space about one third of the total amount of
sunlight that hits the Earth's atmosphere. As the atmosphere warms,
cloud patterns may change, altering the amount of sunlight absorbed
by the Earth. Because clouds are such powerful climate actors, even
small changes in average cloud amounts, locations, and type could
speed warming, slow it, or even reverse it. Current climate models do
not represent cloud physics well, so the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change has consistently rated clouds among its highest
research priorities. NASA and its research partners in industry,
academia, and other nations have a small flotilla of spacecraft and
aircraft studying clouds and the closely related phenomenon of
aerosols.
4. Carbon cycle. Currently, natural processes remove about half of each
year's human carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere, although
this varies a bit year to year. It isn't well understood where this carbon

Climate Change Page 17

 dioxide goes, with some evidence that the oceans are the major
repository and other evidence that land biota absorbs the majority.
There is also some evidence that the ability of the Earth system to
continue absorbing it may decline as the world warms, leading to
faster accumulation in the atmosphere. But this possibility isn't well
understood either. The planned Orbiting Carbon Observatory mission
will mark NASA's first attempt to answer some of these questions via
space observations.
5. Ocean circulation. One very popular hypothesis about climate
change is that as the Earth as a whole warms, ocean circulation in the
Atlantic will change to produce cooling in Western Europe. In its most
extreme form, this hypothesis has advancing European ice sheets
triggering a new ice age. A global-warming induced ice age is not
considered very likely among climate scientists. But the idea highlights
the importance of ocean circulation in maintaining regional climates.
Global ocean data sets only extend back to the early 1990s, so there
are large uncertainties in predictions of future ocean changes.
6. Precipitation. Human civilization is dependent upon where and when
rain and snow fall. We need it for drinking water and for growing our
food. Global climate models show that precipitation will generally
increase, but not in all regions. Some regions will dry instead.
Scientists and policymakers would like to use climate models to assess
regional changes, but the models currently show wide variation in their
results. For just one example, some models forecast less precipitation
in the American southwest, where JPL is, while others foresee more
precipitation. This lack of agreement on even the direction of change
makes planning very difficult. There's much research to be done on
this question.
Sea level rise. In its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used new satellite data to
conclude that shrinkage of ice sheets may contribute more to sea level rise
than it had thought as recently as 2001. The panel concluded that it could
not "provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise" over the
next century due to their lack of knowledge about Earth's ice. There are 5-6
meters worth of sea level in the Greenland ice sheet, and 6-7 meters in the
West Antarctic Ice Sheet, while the much larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet is
probably not vulnerable to widespread melting in the next century. Many
hundreds of millions of people live within that range of sea level increase, so
our inability to predict what sea level rise is likely over the next century has
substantial human and economic ramifications.

Resources on climate change

mitigation

Climate Change Page 18

 Some degree of global change is irreversible. NASA's role is to provide
data needed to understand and model Earth's climate, which can help
policymakers make informed decisions on steps to mitigate global change
and its effects.
It is not NASA's role to develop solutions or public policies related to global
climate change. Instead, the agency's mission is to provide the scientific
data needed to understand climate change and to evaluate the impact of
efforts to control it. (For more information, see NASA's role.)
The following selected resources from governmental organizations provide
information about options for climate change mitigation.
Energy policy options
• U.S. Department of Energy: Climate Change
Describes strategies currently being pursued or considered to reduce
carbon emissions and address global climate change.
http://www.energy.gov/environment/climatechange.htm
• Energy for America's Future
Details current White House policy on energy security and confronting
climate change.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/energy/
• U.S. Climate Policy and Actions
Describes current U.S. policy regarding climate change.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/policy/index.html
• The State of California's Climate Change Portal
This site provides a large number of links to state reports on climate
change mitigation and adaptation options.
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/research/index.html
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Online newsletter concerning issues on and about the U.N.'s
convention on long-term climate change.
http://unfccc.int/2860.php
Individual action
• EPA: What You Can Do
A detailed guide to reducing personal greenhouse gas emissions, from
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/index.html
Personal Emissions Calculator
Use this tool from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to estimate you
or your family's greenhouse gas emissions and explore ways to lower your
impact.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/calculator/ind_calculator.html

Climate Change Page 19

Questions:

1. ________ is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of

time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the
average weather or a change in the distribution of weather events around an
average.
a. Climate Change
b. Global Warming
c. Modern Climate
d. Climate Forcings
e. None of the above

2. Factors that can shape climate are often called ____________.

a. Climate Change
b. Global Warming
c. Modern Climate
d. Climate Forcings
e. None of the above
3. _________ are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change,
advancing when climate cools and retreating when climate warms.
a. Glaciers
b. Dendrochronology
c. Vegetation
d. Volcanism
e. None of the above
4. ___________is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle
of the Earth to its surface.
a. Glaciers
b. Dendrochronology
c. Vegetation
d. Volcanism
e. None of the above
5. __________ is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine the age of
a tree. It can also indicate the climatic conditions for a given number of
years. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period,
whilst thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-than-ideal
growing conditions.
a. Glaciers
b. Dendrochronology
c. Vegetation
d. Volcanism

Climate Change Page 20

 e. None of the above
6. The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a
feedback to the climate. It increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms,
but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these
some of the most important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse
effect.
a. Water Vapor
b. Greenhouse Gases
c. CFC’s (Chlorofluorocarbon’s)
d. CO2 (carbon dioxide)
e. Methane
7. A hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources and human
activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills,
agriculture, and especially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant
digestion and manure management associated with domestic
livestock.
a. Water Vapor
b. Greenhouse Gases
c. CFC’s (Chlorofluorocarbon’s)
d. CO2 (carbon dioxide)
e. Methane
8. A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices,
especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel
combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning.
a. CO2 (carbon dioxide)
b. Water Vapor
c. Methane
d. CFC’s (Chlorofluorocarbon’s)
e. Nitrous Oxide
9. Synthetic compounds of entirely of industrial origin used in a number
of applications, but now largely regulated in production and release to
the atmosphere by international agreement for their ability to
contribute to destruction of the ozone layer.
a. CO2 (carbon dioxide)
b. Water Vapor
c. Methane
d. CFC’s (Chlorofluorocarbon’s)
e. Nitrous Oxide
10.A minor but very important component of the atmosphere, carbon
dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and
volcano eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation,
land use changes, and burning fossil fuels.
a. CO2 (carbon dioxide)
b. Water Vapor
c. Methane
d. CFC’s (Chlorofluorocarbon’s)
e. Nitrous Oxide

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