Contents

List of Tables

List of Diagrams

List of Abbreviations

Introduction...............................................................................................................................1

1. Problem Outline.................................................................................................................1

2. Political Operationalization................................................................................................3

2.1. Object of Analysis (Variables and Hypotheses) and Timeframe................................3

2.2. Structure of Analysis....................................................................................................5

2.3. Theoretical Framework.................................................................................................5

2.4. Methodology and Case Selection.................................................................................7

2.5. State of Research..........................................................................................................8

2.6. Constraints to the Analysis...........................................................................................9

Dependent Variable: Degree of Political Stability...............................................................11

1. Definitional Background: Political Stability.....................................................................11

2. Operationalization and Measurement................................................................................13

2.1. Political In/Stability Indices......................................................................................13

2.2. Public protest events (non-violent and violent)..........................................................14

Chapter I. Independent Variable 1: Responsiveness of the Political Authorities............15

1. Brief Definitional Background: Political Authorities, Stimuli..........................................15

2. Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)........................................................................16

3. Degree of Legitimacy....................................................................................................16

3.1. Degree of Support......................................................................................................17

3.1.1 Voter Turnout........................................................................................................18

3.1.2 Election Results....................................................................................................18

3.2. Degree of Trust...........................................................................................................18

 4. Hungary, the Czech Republic and, the Slovak Republic: Case Comparison of
Independent Variable 1.........................................................................................................19

4.1. Context and Stimuli...................................................................................................19

4.2. Worldwide Governance Indicators............................................................................23

4.2.1. Governance Effectiveness....................................................................................23

4.2.2. Voice and Accountability...................................................................................27

4.3. Degree of Legitimacy.................................................................................................28

4.3.1. Degree of Support................................................................................................29

4.3.1.1. Voter Turnout...............................................................................................29

4.3.1.2. Election Results.............................................................................................32

4.4. Degree of Trust...........................................................................................................37

4.5. Brief Summary: Independent Variable 1....................................................................39

Chapter II. Independent Variable 2: Social Imbalance......................................................41

1. Unemployment................................................................................................................41

2. Income Inequality...........................................................................................................41

3. Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic: Case Comparison of Independent
Variable 2..............................................................................................................................42

3.1. Unemployment...........................................................................................................42

3.2. Income Inequality.......................................................................................................44

4. Brief Summary of Case Comparison................................................................................47

Chapter III. Degree of Political Stability (Dependent Variable): Case Comparison......49

1. Political Instability Indices...............................................................................................49

2. Public Protest Events (Violent and Non-Violent)............................................................52

3. Brief Summary: Dependent Variable Case Comparison...................................................56

Chapter IV: Interaction of Variables, Evaluation and Conclusion..................................57

Annex.......................................................................................................................................63

a) Region and Country Information......................................................................................64

b) Bibliography.....................................................................................................................66
List of Tables

1 Voter Turnout in Hungary (1990-2006)…………………………………………………30

2 Voter Turnout in the Czech Republic (1990-2006)……………………………………...31

3 Voter Turnout in Slovakia (1990-2006)…………………………………………………32

4 Trust in Political Parties…………………………………………………………………38

5 Trust in Politicians ………………………………………………………………………38

6 Trust in Country’s Parliament……………………………………………………………38

7 Summary of Income Distribution Data for mid-2000’s………………………………….47

8 EIU Political Instability Index for 2009/2010 (Hungary)………………………………..49

9 Political Risk Index Values for Hungary (2003-2008/2009).............................................51

10 EIU Political Instability Index for 2009/2010 (Czech Republic)………………………...51

11 EIU Political Instability Index for 2009/2010 (Slovakia)………………………………..52

List of Diagrams

1 Government Effectiveness Indicator (1996-2008)………………………………………27

2 Voice and Accountability Indicator (1996-2008)……………………………………….28

3 Parliamentary Election Results for Hungary (1990-2006)………………………………33

4 Parliamentary Election Results for the Czech Republic (1996-2006)…………………...35

5 Political Stability Indicator 1996-2008 (WGI)…………………………………………..50

List of Abbreviations

DV Dependent Variable

CEE Central and Eastern Europe

CL Civil Liberties

CSSD Czech Social Democratic Party

EIU Economist Intelligence Unit

EU European Union

EP European Parliament

ESS European Social Survey

FIDESZ Hungarian Civic Union

IV Independent Variable

Jobbik The Movement for a Better Hungary

KDH Christian Democratic Movement (Slovakia)

KDU-CSL Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People’s Party

KSCM Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (Czech Republic)

LS-HZDS People’s Party-Movement for a Democratic Slovakia

MDF Hungarian Democratic Forum

MSZP Hungarian Socialist Party

ODA Civic Democratic Alliance (Czech Republic)

ODS Civic Democratic Party (Czech Republic)

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development

PM Prime Minister

PRI Political Risk Index

SDKU Slovak Democratic and Christian Union

SDKU-DS Slovak Democratic and Christina Union – Democratic Party

SMER Direction – Social Democracy (Slovakia)

SMK Party of the Hungarian Coalition (Slovakia)

SNS Slovak National Party

SZDSZ Alliance of Free Democrats (Hungary)

WGI World Governance Indicators