09-01-2015

Technical
Analysis
Review

Review_09/01/15 - ( Rating - 7/15 ) Positive - High Risk - Rupee is Depreciating / Nifty on verge of Breaking out into Bull Market / AD is +ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is
+ve / Bonds is -Ve (--) Big Picture is Positive.
| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Neutral | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |

Indian Rupee - ( 3/4 ) Rupee Breakout from Symmetrical triangle Pattern. $ is in a

Bull Maket v/s Rupee Depreciation.Rupee had Retracement from Top to 61.37 on 0308-2014. Rupee is consolidating into a Range at Demand Level from Weekly
Timeframe.A Breakout from Range is awaited

Supply Zone at 1) 69.228 (68.860) 68.578 2) 64.074 (63.669) 63.206

Demand Zone are at 1) 61.154 (60.720) 60.373 & 2) 59.368 (59.044) 58.688

It is notable that the entire activity of previous 4 Months is contained into the range of
August Huge Candle & it is unable to takeout the lows of that August candle.On Daily
TF the price has broken on Upside. It is Notable that $ Index has Given a Breakout
from Weekly Demand Zone & $ is expected to Raise against all Currencies (Trouble for
Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been considered to be the
Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash).

Nifty - ( 3/4 ) Daily Chart is in Uptrend - Highest Low is 7723.

This was a Normal Range Week.The Bears won the week as prices closed in bottom
third of the Range below the Previous week close & exposed the inability of Bulls to
Retest the Supply Zone on Weekly Timeframe.
The Higher High, Higher Low Bar Range has been broken on Daily Weekly & Monthly
Timeframe - Weekly | DZ - 8160 - 7961 + 7831 - 7723 | SZ 8626 - 8588

Monthly Chart has 3 Days to Go & Engulfing bar action on Monthly could mean deep
correction. The Demand Zone on Monthly is near 7721 - 7422 & Below it 6730 - 6650

Demand Levels are (8118 - 8084) + FZ 7890 + (7906 - 7857) + SHFZ (7840 - 7817) +
(7731 - 7695) + (7676 - 7654) + (7625 - 7598) + (7564 - 7532) + (7420 - 7360) + (7130 7080) + RN 7000 + (6860 - 6820) + (6690 6640) + 6354 (6228.45) 6187.80 + 6133
(6100) 6102 + 5807 (5791) 5780 + 5755.28 to 5714.63 + 5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 +
5276.86 - 5211.20 + 5128.09 (5079.67) 5032.70 + 4842.27 4770.73

Supply Levels - Life Highs + 8663 - (8627) - 8545

Dimensions
Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot Highs of 6154 - 6134 is broken on
the Up side & retesting the Trendline break from above,Measured up move of Break
of Ascending Triangle is Very high at 10043.
Volume Volumes are in increasing Trend.In Jan series Nifty future shed 9.18 lakh
position in Open Interest and this accounts to -5.16 % of Total Open Interest in Jan
series.The Nifty Jan series is trading at 22.65 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative
cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net shed 8.77 lakh position in open
interest and this accounts to -4.72 % of Total Open Interest in all series and
cumulatively trading in average premium of 74.72 Rs to Underlying.
Open Intrest (OI) Record updated for-.Jan/09/2014-NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(8257.25)
is currently in SIDEWAYS trend.The open interest is also not increasing with trend so
be careful.
In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even though put/call ratio is high At
current price strike the activity is tilted to put side but addition of call is slightly
increasing at 8200 level The Nifty call option is trading at discount so sentiment at
higher level seems cautious Yesterday Nifty Put option has added 568.56 lakh position
and Nifty call option has added 567.44 lakh position in open interest on cumulative
basis
NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) 1.0 & (Money Wise) - 0.29

Sentiments Sentiments are now Caustious as current Breakout into Life time High
has retraced, Due to Sharp retracement in Upmove Traders are forced to cut their
Long Position,A Break on Upside from Weekly Inverse H&S & Monthly Ascending
Triangle Indicates Supreme Power for Bulls.Risk Reward would be favourable on Bear
Side upto Retest. Earnings expectations are mostly -ve
TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 8174.00 ) Nifty could now build Short Position
due to Sharp Pullback Rally..
Nifty's 56 Day Cycle
(09-01-2014 was a Bullish Pin Bar Up Day) (Next Date 06-03-2015 Expect Uptrend )-->
Mid month Reversal ( 12-12-2014 was a Huge Downtrend Day )(Next Date 12-012015) Quaterlies Settlement is on 3rd Friday (19-12-2014 was Narrow Range Bearish
Pinbar Day) (Next Date 20-03-2015)
P & F Chart Ascending Triple Top Breakout Pattern occurred on 21-11-2014. 1) Rare
Double top & Inverse H&S Neckline Breakout @ 6200 --- 2) New Support 8000 &
Resistance Life Highs 8550
Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)
Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks
advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even
reverse.
AD Line is Now falling with increase in Nifty, indicates decreased strength in Up trend
& But Line is still Low on the Curve hence it is Positive for Uptrend.
Midcaps are Raising with declining Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels
) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Little Momentum.

Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (1/1) To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline

Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty
TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0
(More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that
are Declining
SMA Trin is Between 0.8 & 0.7 indicated reduced Strength in Uptrend & space for
more stocks to Decline even tho Nifty is Rising,The series of Higher Lows in SMA10 of
TRIN can be Restored.

NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs
versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs
indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive
There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" has been broken on upside
for a 2nd Time indicating weekness in Up Trend.The "Peaks of stocks Hitting 52
Week High" Should increase for strong Up Trend

India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied
volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor
& used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with
Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will
move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index
VIX is below 20 indicating Complacancy. Fear/ Volitality has increased with Up Trend
indicating Possible pullback...Volume is also High....
Indian Bonds (0/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period
= Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market)
All Bonds Compleing Pullback in Uptrend. InCorrect Relation of 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI < 3Y ROI is achived (Caution Money is Moving to Short term Bond Market from
Share Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) .. . Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed
by Govt) & with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than
corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets.
10 Y
30 Y
3Y

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Commodities (Negative Correlation) $CRB is in Accumulation Phase, Commodities

Crude Has Broken Down, Gold is Pushed down as $ Moved up But Copper has
regained Lost Ground ... & Geo Political Tensions are high,Now Commodities are to
Resume uptrend if $ fails to resume uptrend & continues to Decline

Group 1 - Oil + Gas -> 33% Weight

Group 2 - Natural Gas + Metal + Corn + Soya -> 42% Weight

Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is inclining Currency post the

bounce from Demand Zone & Hence Some Currencies are Reaching Supply Zone.
Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to Rebuild (Distribution) after
Fed's Stance of Tapering in QE & Budget Deal, Hints at Liquidity Reversal is on Hold
(Market is Build Gains on Good News) ..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off Mode
.. Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency (Developed & Other
Emerging Mkt Currencies ) are depreciating against $ to take advantage of investment
in safe Govt Secured Bond

Group 3 - Others -> 25% Weight

World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Chinese Recover is Slow with raised

concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan & US Markets has Fresh Break Down
(Markets are Distributing Stocks on Good News Markets are now Ferouscliously
Selling.Europe CAG are Near Resistance DAX & FTSE have given Fresh Break down
(Global Markets are Now breaking out of Resistance. Syncronisation in Breakouts is
seen after Creating consolidation Patterns.But Global Liquidity is Drying,interest Rates
are increasing ..All Equity Markets except EMs are on Risk ON Mode

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NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any
investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.