Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Initiation of coverage
Now that Sound has attracted a farm-in partner and strategic investor in
2014 (Niche Group and Continental Investment Partners), we foresee a
period of high activity approaching for Sound, with a rejuvenated balance
sheet and five material exploration and appraisal prospects scheduled for
Price
Revenue
(m)
EBITDA
(m)
PBT*
(m)
Net (debt)/
cash (m)
Capex
(m)
12/12
0.00
(4.61)
(4.63)
6.83
(3.99)
12/13
0.48
(6.29)
(6.56)
(1.63)
(7.11)
12/14e
0.82
(2.55)
(2.63)
3.70
(0.80)
12/15e
4.22
0.72
0.18
(11.6)
(17.4)
Year end
10.75p
Market cap
35m
US$1.6/
7
327.8m
Free float
76%
Code
SOU
Primary exchange
AIM
Secondary exchange
N/A
Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share
based payments
1m
3m
12m
Abs
24.3
75.5
27.6
Rel (local)
25.6
73.8
15.8
52-week high/low
12.88p
4.63p
Business description
Sound Oil is a 100% Italy-focused E&P company
with two fields in production, Rapagnano and Casa
Tiberi; three fields scheduled for further appraisal,
Nervesa, Laura and Santa Maria Goretti; and two
sizeable, drill-ready exploration prospects, Badile
and Zibido.
Next events
Nervesa second appraisal well
Q314
Q414/Q115
Q215
Q215
Q315
Analysts
Peter Lynch
Elaine Reynolds
Will Forbes
Ian McLelland
oilandgas@edisongroup.com
Edison profile page
Investment summary
Company description: New partners recognise opportunity
AIM-listed E&P company Sound Oil holds majority working interests in 18 oil and gas licences
across Italy. Within these licences the group holds two producing gas assets, Rapagnano and Casa
Tiberi; three assets undergoing further appraisal, Nervesa, Laura and Santa Maria Goretti; and two
outsized exploration prospects, Badile and Zibido. In April 2014 Sound successfully introduced two
institutional funds to the company, Niche Group, as farm-in partner carrying 100% of the costs of
the upcoming appraisal well at Nervesa (5m), and Continental Investment Partners (CIP), as
cornerstone investor and provider of debt, injecting 14m to the company (comprised of 7m equity
and a 7m loan).
Operationally, the company plans to drill five exploration and appraisal wells in the coming two
years. Of these five wells, exploration prospect Badile, scheduled to spud in Q414 (pending a farmout agreement), is the well to watch as potential company maker. As a backdrop to exploration at
Badile the group continues with a programme of low-risk appraisal at existing discoveries Nervesa,
Laura and Santa Maria Goretti.
Now with funding in place, the group schedules five material exploration and appraisal wells across
this portfolio within the next two years following the introduction of a new farm-in partner and a
strategic investor in 2014. Of these five wells, exploration prospect Badile, scheduled to spud yearend 2014 pending a farm-out agreement, is the well to watch as a potential company maker. As a
backdrop to this exploration prospect the group continues a programme of low-risk appraisal at
existing discoveries Nervesa, Laura and Santa Maria Goretti, in addition to maintenance of
production at recently commissioned fields Rapagnano and Casa Tiberi.
Exhibit 3: Rapagnano
The next field to come on production for Sound will be Casa Tiberi. The field development of Casa
Tiberi remains on track, with first production expected by July 2014. The Casa Tiberi-1 discovery
well was drilled in late 2011 and tested gas at a commercial rate of 0.3mmscf/d. The company
expects to produce P50 reserves from Casa Tiberi of around 0.2bcf, though will wait for a sustained
period of output before firming this estimate.
In addition to the level 1 reservoir, Sound has identified a 150m thick sequence of thin sand layers
sitting above Level 1; the company believes this formation can be produced at a commercial rate.
Sound plans an appraisal well, Torrente Tesino-3, located around 150m to the north of Torrente
Tesino-2, to target both the 150m thin bed formation and the Level 1 reservoir. This appraisal well is
scheduled to spud by Q215 and based on current Sound estimates, is expected to cost around
9m. In the event of success at St. Maria Goretti, the well could be tied into the existing Carassai
treatment plant located only 1.5km away.
in the near term, and we would not expect the group to proceed with drilling Badile without a partner
in place to share costs.
Exhibit 11: Badile prospect depth map
The Badile structure is a three-way fault dip closure, identified from 2D and 3D seismic data and
bounded to the west by a north-south trending fault. The target reservoir is the Upper Triassic
Conchodon Dolomite, productive in both the nearby Villafortuna-Trecate and Malossa fields. The
play is fed by two major Triassic source rocks, with the Villafortuna-Trecate containing gas and 43
API oil, while Malossa contains gas and condensate. It is believed Badile shares its source rock
with Malossa and hence it is assumed to contain gas condensate.
Based on the 2013 CPR, the Conchodon Dolomite could exhibit poor primary reservoir quality;
however, productivity should be enhanced by the presence of fractures. Based on experience from
the analogous Malossa field, the company believes that a vertical well should encounter sufficient
fractures to achieve commercial productivity. The key risks in Badile are thought to be source rock
maturity and successful migration, with reservoir productivity considered a secondary risk. The
combination of these risks drives a 22% geological chance of success (GCoS) for this prospect.
In the event of a successful discovery at Badile, Sound Oil plans to drill a further appraisal well in
2016 followed by two development wells with a view to first production in 2019. The mid-case field
development scenario for Badile, as per the CPR, assumes a production rate of 12mmscf/d per well
with a field plateau rate of 48mmscf/d. The CPR assigns a recovery factor to Badile of 45%, which
is based on a similar level of recovery having been achieved at Malossa.
Management
James Parsons (CEO): appointed CEO in October 2012, James has 20 years experience, mostly
working for Shell, in the fields of strategy, management, finance and corporate development in the
energy industry. James is a qualified accountant and has a BA Honours in business economics.
Luca Madeddu (managing director, Italy): Luca has over 24 years experience gained with ENI.
Luca holds a degree in geology from Milan University, and has been a Member of the Society of
Petroleum Engineers (SPE) since 1995. He has extensive experience in hydrocarbon production,
field development and petroleum engineering.
Leonardo Spicci (technical manager and Badile project director, Italy): Leonardo has 24 years
experience with ENI, with extensive experience of working in Italy. Prior to joining Sound Oil in 2013
he was the district manager for all northern Italian assets at ENI. Leonardo has a BSc in geological
science and is a Member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
technical and commercial uncertainties, in addition to any required dilution the company may
experience due to the funding requirements of field development.
Regarding commodity pricing, for natural gas we have assumed $11/mcf escalated at 2.5% a year
as our long-term gas price scenario. This may seem relatively high, but Italy as a region
experiences consistently higher gas prices than the rest of Europe, due mainly to location and the
lack of domestic supply.
Our analysis suggests a core NAV for Sound of 1.3p, comprised of 1.6p in cash, two-year SG&A
expenses of 1.0p, and 0.6p in value attributable to producing asset Rapagnano.
Beyond this, we suggest a further 12p in value attributable to the companys fully funded assets
under appraisal, Nervesa and Santa Maria Goretti. These assets were astutely acquired by Sound
as prior ENI discoveries with proven hydrocarbon potential; hence we have discounted the
estimated value of these assets with a lower level of geologic and commercial risk. As the company
carries funds to drill Santa Maria Goretti and is 100% free carried in its upcoming appraisal well at
Nervesa, we include both assets in our core NAV+ funded appraisal category, valued at 13.3p.
Exhibit 13: Valuation summary
Asset
Net (debt)/cash
SG&A
Production
Rapagnano
Core NAV
Appraisal/development:
Nervesa SA-1
Nervesa Cascina Daga
S. Maria Goretti
Appraisal assets (funded)
Core NAV + funded appraisal
Country
Working interest
%
100%
100%
CoS
%
100%
100%
Gross
mmboe
Net
mmboe
Italy
100%
100%
0.2
0.2
23.3
Italy
Italy
Italy
72.5%
72.5%
100%
100%
75%
70%
0.5
1.7
3.0
0.4
1.3
3.0
29.7
34.4
15.9
Risked
p/share
1.6
(1.0)
Unrisked
p/share
1.6
(1.0)
4.4
9.10
0.6
1.3
0.6
1.3
10.6
32.6
38.9
82.1
91.2
1.6
4.8
5.7
12.0
13.3
1.6
6.4
8.2
16.1
17.4
Over and above this 13.3p, we value the groups sizeable yet unfunded exploration and appraisal
prospects, Badile, Zibido and Laura, as worth an additional 19p. Though we highlight, given the
companys success in raising capital to date, we would expect to see these assets fully funded
within the near term, most likely by means of a material farm-down of Sounds 100% working
interest in all three assets. In deriving our upside valuation for Badile, Zibido and Laura in Exhibit
14, we assume all three assets achieve funding on a 2 for 1 farm out basis, with well costs fully
carried.
Exhibit 14: Exploration & appraisal assets (unfunded)
Asset
Country Status
Laura
Badile
Zibido
Total
Italy
Italy
Italy
Appraisal
Exploration
Exploration
Working
interest
%
50%
50%
50%
CoS
GCOS
Gross
%
70%
mmboe
4.9
29.8
16.0
22%*
18%*
Net NPV/boe
mmboe
2.5
14.9
8.0
$/boe
22.1
18.9
20.5
Risked
value
$m
37.9
62.1
29.5
Risked Unrisked
p/share
5.6
9.1
4.3
19.0
p/share
7.9
41.3
24.0
73.3
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Risking based on GCOS only; further risking would take place if
Sound were to develop these assets.
Combining our 13.3p core NAV + funded appraisal with our 19p unfunded exploration and
appraisal prospects suggests material upside from the current share price for Sound. Though we
highlight a successful outcome at exploration prospect Badile could alone be worth an additional
41p to the shares.
Sensitivities
Shifting regulation Italian environmental policy remains transient
The permitting process for oil and gas drilling in Italy remains an environmentally sensitive process.
As an example, in response to the Macondo disaster in 2010, the Italian government enacted a
decree banning offshore drilling within five miles of the coast. Hence as a general theme, delays to
permitting represent a significant risk to the companys expected pace of drilling activity.
10
'000s
2010
IFRS
2011
IFRS
2012
IFRS
2013
IFRS
2014e
IFRS
2015e
IFRS
0
0
0
(1,975)
(1,990)
0
0
0
(1,990)
21
0
0
0
(4,629)
(4,640)
0
0
0
(4,640)
44
(1,969)
(1,969)
0
(1,969)
(1,969)
(4,596)
(4,596)
0
(4,596)
(4,596)
0
0
0
(4,607)
(4,631)
0
0
(174)
(4,805)
1
(174)
(4,630)
(4,804)
0
(4,804)
(4,804)
482
(135)
347
(6,291)
(6,437)
0
0
(304)
(6,741)
(123)
(304)
(6,560)
(6,864)
0
(6,864)
(6,864)
818
(200)
618
(2,550)
(2,632)
0
0
0
(2,632)
0
0
(2,632)
(2,632)
(84)
(2,717)
(2,717)
4,224
(333)
3,891
723
178
0
0
0
178
0
0
178
178
(174)
5
4
242.0
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
0.0
242.0
(1.9)
(1.9)
(1.9)
0.0
242.0
(2.0)
(2.0)
(2.0)
0.0
287.6
(2.4)
(2.3)
(2.4)
0.0
413.5
(0.7)
(0.4)
(0.7)
0.0
413.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
72.0
N/A
N/A
75.5
N/A
N/A
92.1
17.1
N/A
BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets
Intangible Assets
Tangible Assets
Investments
Current Assets
Stocks
Debtors
Cash
Other
Current Liabilities
Creditors
Short term borrowings
Long Term Liabilities
Long term borrowings
Other long term liabilities
Net Assets
12,112
11,479
12
621
7,515
28,248
26,302
1,278
668
7,793
15,399
14,546
853
0
9,721
20,976
19,500
1,476
0
2,705
21,681
20,209
1,473
0
13,094
38,539
35,871
2,668
0
2,162
2,940
4,484
91
(284)
(284)
0
(1,628)
0
(1,628)
17,715
1,388
6,286
119
(2,233)
(2,233)
0
(3,942)
0
(3,942)
29,866
2,774
6,909
38
(801)
(719)
(82)
(2,805)
0
(2,805)
21,514
1,978
543
184
(3,026)
(2,797)
(229)
(5,338)
(1,947)
(3,391)
15,317
1,978
10,932
184
(3,026)
(2,797)
(229)
(10,391)
(7,000)
(3,391)
21,359
1,978
0
184
(3,026)
(2,797)
(229)
(16,164)
(11,373)
(4,791)
21,511
CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow
Net Interest
Tax
Capex
Acquisitions/disposals
Financing
Dividends
Net Cash Flow
Opening net debt/(cash)
HP finance leases initiated
Other
Closing net debt/(cash)
(2,662)
0
0
(3,580)
0
104
0
(6,138)
0
0
1,654
4,484
(2,965)
0
0
(6,505)
0
11,272
0
1,802
(4,484)
0
0
(6,286)
(4,316)
0
0
(3,993)
2,515
6,417
0
623
(6,286)
0
(82)
(6,827)
(2,636)
0
0
(7,188)
0
1,794
0
(8,030)
(6,827)
0
(430)
1,633
(2,487)
0
0
(788)
0
8,611
0
5,336
1,633
0
0
(3,703)
697
0
0
(17,403)
0
1,400
0
(15,306)
(3,703)
0
0
11,602
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: Assumes successful completion of 87.5m share issue to Continental
Investment Partners.
11
Contact details
Revenue by geography
Riverbridge House
Guildford Road
Leatherhead
Surrey
KT22 9AD
United Kingdom
+44 (0)1372 365725
www.soundoil.co.uk
100%
Italy
CAGR metrics
Profitability metrics
EPS 2011-15e
EPS 2013-15e
EBITDA 2011-15e
EBITDA 2013-15e
Sales 2011-15e
Sales 2013-15e
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
ROCE 14e
Avg ROCE 2011-15e
ROE 14e
Gross margin 14e
Operating margin 14e
Gr mgn / Op mgn 14e
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Gearing 14e
Interest cover 14e
CA/CL 14e
Stock days 14e
Debtor days 14e
Creditor days 14e
Sensitivities evaluation
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Litigation/regulatory
Pensions
Currency
Stock overhang
Interest rates
Oil/commodity prices
Management team
CEO: James Parsons
Appointed CEO in October 2012, James has 20 years experience, mostly
working for Shell, in the fields of strategy, management, finance and corporate
development in the energy industry. James is a qualified accountant and has a
BA Honours in business economics.
Managing Director, Italy: Luca Madeddu
Luca has over 24 years experience gained with ENI. He holds a degree in
geology from Milan University, and has been a Member of the Society of
Petroleum Engineers (SPE) since 1995. Luca has extensive experience in
hydrocarbon production, field development and petroleum engineering.
Principal shareholders
(%)
21.00
13.78
13.34
12.18
11.83
7.84
5.8
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960
Schumannstrasse
Sound Oil 34b
| 27 June
60325 Frankfurt
Germany
12