Cuba Core - Northwestern 2013 Plus One

*FINISHED ARGUMENTS*
Tourism DA
1NC Shell
Cubas coral reefs have escaped harm from tourism, but
are fragile due to rising ocean temps- lifting the US
embargo is the biggest threat to the reefs.
Dean 07- (Cornela- science editor and writer for the New York Times,
Conserving Cuba, After the Embargo, New York Times, December 25 2007,
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/25/science/25cuba.html?pagewanted=all)//
Like corals elsewhere, those in Cuba are suffering as global warming
raises ocean temperatures and acidity levels. And like other corals in
the region, they reeled when a mysterious die-off of sea urchins left them
with algae overgrowth. But they have largely escaped damage from
pollution, boat traffic and destructive fishing practices. Diving in
them is like going back in time 50 years, said David Guggenheim, a
conference organizer and an ecologist and member of the advisory board of
the Harte Research Institute, which helped organize the meeting along with
the Center for International Policy, a private group in Washington. In a report
last year, the World Wildlife Fund said that in dramatic contrast to its
island neighbors, Cubas beaches, mangroves, reefs, seagrass beds
and other habitats were relatively well preserved. Their biggest
threat, the report said, was the prospect of sudden and massive
growth in mass tourism when the U.S. embargo lifts.
Lifting the embargo would double tourism in one year,

crushing all previous attempts at conservation.
In the late 1990s, Mr. Houck was involved in an effort, financed in part
by the MacArthur Foundation, to advise Cuban officials writing new
environmental laws. But, he said in an interview, an invasion of U.S.
consumerism, a U.S.-dominated future, could roll over it like a
bulldozer when the embargo ends. By some estimates, tourism in Cuba
is increasing 10 percent annually. At a minimum, Orlando Rey Santos, the
Cuban lawyer who led the law-writing effort, said in an interview at the
conference, we can guess that tourism is going to increase in a very
fast way when the embargo ends. It is estimated we could double
tourism in one year, said Mr. Rey, who heads environmental efforts at the
Cuban ministry of science, technology and environment. About 700 miles
long and about 100 miles wide at its widest, Cuba runs from Haiti west
almost to the Yucatn Peninsula of Mexico. It offers crucial habitat for
birds, like Bicknells thrush, whose summer home is in the mountains of New
England and Canada, and the North American warblers that stop in Cuba on
their way south for the winter.
Tourist development in Cuba produces coastal erosion,

increasing the sediment in coastal waters, and
devastating tourist attractions- turns case.
Cepero 04 (Eudel Eduardo- environmental scientist focused on Cuba, part
of the Urban Issues and the Environment research staff at the Cuban
Research Institute at Florida International University, Environmental
Concerns for a Cuba in Transition, 2004, Cuba Transition Project, Institute for
Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami,
http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/Research_Studies/ECepero.pdf, page 15)//
However, the unsustainable development to attract tourism being
carried out by government building brigades has caused, among
other impacts, the destruction of some 10,000 acres of mangroves;
the creation of 428.4 hectares of holes produced by quarry mining
and borrow pits in Cayo Coco, Cayo Guillermo, and Cayo Romano; and
accelerated processes of beach sand erosion due to the building of
hotels and tourism infrastructure on coastal sand dune areas.
Within a period of 15 years, features of considerable environmental
value have been destroyed in Cubas northern keys, endangering the
ecosystem and all its investments, given the dramatic deterioration
of the natural resources (landscapes and beaches) that gave rise to
them.
Water runoff and sediment from tourism will cause mass

bleaching of Caribbean reefs and lower the threshold for
damage from global warming.
Pulwarty 10- (Roger S., Caribbean Islands, Environment Magazine,
Volume 52, Number 6, November/December 2010, EBSCO)//

Little is known about the long-term effects of climate variability and change
in the Caribbean Sea and in turn on fisheries population viability within its
larger marine ecosystems. Coral reefs are the most conspicuous
coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean, with the second longest barrier
reef in the world located off the coast of Belize. In 2000, Caribbean
reefs alone provided annual net benefits from fisheries, dive
tourism, and shoreline protection services of 5345 billion,it did not
including indirect benefits such as the stabilization of coastlines. The smallscale fishing sector is growing as a source of seasonal employment and
subsistence (Figure 3). Estimates indicate that only 25 percent of
Caribbean reefs are in good health.3 Stresses that cause or
exacerbate coral health impacts include unusually high ocean
temperatures, high levels of ultraviolet light, disease, abnormal
salinity, and high turbidity and sedimentation from runoff and
industrial waste In the early 1980s, the combined reduction of
herbivorous fishes and the die-off of the black sea urchin, Diadema
antillarum, which feeds on algae growing over corals, are believed to
have had negative impacts on reefs in many areas of the Caribbean.
Low salinity and hypoxic conditions from runoff and waste disposal
trigger mass mortalities of fish, along with reductions in sea-grass

area.1 These impacts point to complex interspecies interactions and
coupled habitat complexes that have extensive on reef building.
There are also signs that Caribbean fish stocks are suffering from the
phenomenon known as fishing down the food web, in which longer-lived,
predatory fish become more scarce, and stocks become dominated by
shorter-lived, plankton-eating species, signaling further long-term ecosystem
risks. While climatebiota relationships are difficult to predict, reef fish are
clearly shown to benefit from proximity to protected areas.2 In the summer
of 2005, central Caribbean reef habitats and coral species were affected by
widespread and severe bleaching (Figure 4). The common factor was water
temperature, approximately above the seasonal maxima down to at least 30
meters depth. Coastal sea temperatures are expected to warm 1.22.2"C
over the next century, with indications that bleaching incidents could become
part of the annual cycle of events by 2025 to 2050."4 lf corals can adapt to 1
~1.5C, mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at harmful intervals
until the latter half of the century.-Against the background of
ecosystem degradation and human pressures, the capacity of reefs
to cope may be irreversibly compromised at even lower temperature
thresholds. Thus, a fixed bleaching temperature threshold for management
of l to 2C above the present average sea temperature needs to be
reevaluated.
Loss of coral collapses the ocean ecosystem, causing

catastrophic worldwide hunger, political unrest, and
extinction.
Red Orbit 10- (Online source for space, science, health, and technology
news, Coral Reef Extinction Could Have Catastrophic Effect, March 26 th

2010,
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1842159/coral_reef_extinction_could_h
ave_catastrophic_effect/)//
Coral reefs are slowly becoming extinct and could disappear entirely
within the next century which could have disastrous results all over the
world, experts claim. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) statistics published in a March 25 Associated Press
(AP) article, roughly 19-percent of the Earths coral reefs have already
disappeared, and an additional 15-percent could be gone within the
next two decades. Furthermore, Dr. Kent Carpenter, a professor at Old
Dominion University, believes that global climate change could result
in the extinction of the species in no more than 100 years unless more
is done to combat global warming. Were that to occur, the results could
be catastrophic. Coral reefs are eaten or inhabited by many of the
oceanic fish population, which in turn provide a food or income
source for an estimated one-billion people around the world. In
addition to hunger and poverty, some predict that severe political
unrest could also result, should the coral reef actually become
extinct. You could argue that a complete collapse of the marine
ecosystem would be one of the consequences of losing corals,
Carpenter told Brian Skoloff of the AP on Thursday. Youre going to have a
tremendous cascade effect for all life in the oceans. Whole nations
will be threatened in terms of their existence, added Carl Gustaf
Lundin of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. According to
Skoloff, Experts say cutting back on carbon emissions to arrest rising
sea temperatures and acidification of the water, declaring some reefs
off limits to fishing and diving, and controlling coastal development and
pollution could help reverse, or at least stall, the tide. Such
measures have met with resistance, however. Earlier this week, in fact, a
proposed set of restrictions on the trade of coral species was rejected by the
member nations of the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered
Species of Wild Fauna and Flora. Failing to establish such regulations,
however, could create a chain effect that could wipe out other seagoing
species, such as grouper, snapper, oysters, and clams, and destroy a fishing
industry that directly employs at least 38 million individuals worldwide. Fish
will become a luxury good, Cassandra deYoung of the U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization told Skoloff. You already have a billion people
who are facing hunger, and this is just going to aggravate the
situation. We will not be able to maintain food security around the
world.
Uniqueness Extensions
Environment
Cubas Garden of the Queen reef has, so far, avoided
destruction and is a haven of biodiversity in the
Caribbean.
Whittle, Rader, and Dixon 1-16 (Dan- senior attorney at
Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and director of its Cuba Program, DougPhD and EDFs Chief Oceans Scientist, and Violet- Marketing Communications
Associate for EDFs Oceans program, Protecting Cubas Abundant Coral
Reefs, Sailors For the Sea.ORG, January 16 2013,
http://sailorsforthesea.org/sailing-and-the-environment/ocean-watch/oceanwatch-essays/protecting-cubas-abundant-coral-reefs-.aspx)//
Seeing under the sea Healthy coral reefs, mangrove swamps and
seagrass beds support thriving fish populations, which in turn
support local fishing communities and attract ocean enthusiasts.
Scuba divers come from around the world, for example, to witness the
myriad of sea animals and breathtaking underwater ecosystems in
the Gardens of the Queen. On these dives, they encounter numerous
species of shark including Caribbean reef sharks, silky sharks, nurse
sharks and occasional lemon and blacktip sharks. Depending on the
season and other factors, visitors also occasionally encounter whale sharks,
the largest known fish species. Swimming with Goliath Large groupers -including the true behemoths, goliath groupers -- are common. They can be
the size of a small car! While goliath groupers are making a comeback in
some places in Florida, they are mostly juveniles, with mature individuals
appearing less frequently. In the Gardens of the Queen, other groupers -black, Nassau, yellowmouth, yellowfin and tiger -- are abundant at diving
depths, along with a full array of snappers, many of which are fished
out, or nearly so, in other Caribbean locales. Smaller species are
present in great diversity and abundance as well, such as
parrotfishes and other herbivores, the sanitation engineers of the reef.
EDF divers recorded totals of 124 and 127 fish species in the park during
short trips in 2010 and 2011, respectively, without any night diving or
specialty habitat diving that would have expanded the numbers dramatically.
Tourism
Tourism is falling now in Cuba
Cuba Standard 6-16 (A Cuban business and economic news website,
Cuba tourism continues slide, June 16th 2013,
http://www.cubastandard.com/2013/06/16/tourism-continues-slide/)//
Continuing a slide that began early this year, visitor numbers in April
were 3.9 percent below those of April 2012, mainly due to weakness in
European source markets, and a drop of visitors from the United States.
Close to 274,000 visitors arrived at the island in April, down from
288,000 in 2012, according to statistics released by the Oficina Nacional de
Estadsticas (ONE). The total for the year through the end of April was
1.222 million, down 1.4 percent. Visitors from Canada, Cubas main
tourism source market, rose 1.3 percent in April, and visitors from the United
Kingdom (+8.1%), Germany (+11.8%), and Chile (+38.6%) increased
considerably. However, the number of visitors from other countries,
the second largest category which includes the United States, was down
a hefty 13.4 percent in April. The number of visitors from France (6.8%), Spain (-39.5%) and Italy (-7.2%) continued to decline. For the
period January-April, the number of visitors from Canada and the UK
showed slow growth, at 1 percent each, while German visitors were up
10.4 percent. The number of visitors from other countries dropped 5.6
percent, Spain -17.3 percent, Italy -13.1 percent, and France -8.8 percent.
Other tourism indicators are down as well. According to a statistical
report for the first quarter, the number of overnight stays for Jan.March was down 1.6 percent; hotel occupancy for the quarter
dropped to 63.7 percent, from 65.7 percent in the same period last year.
Link Extensions
Lifting the embargo would increase Carbbean tourism at
least 10%.
Romeu 08- (Rafael- senior economist at IMF, previously an external
consultant to the Central Bank of Venezuela, Vacation Over: Implications for
the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism, July 2008, Working Paper for
the International Monetary Fund, p. 21,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08162.pdf)//
Imposing trade barriers raises costs and distorts the flow of
commerce. Using tourist-mile as a cost proxy for current tourism
restrictions, the cost to U.S. consumers of traveling to Cuba is
estimated to be at least 7,000 nautical miles. This cost increase has
permitted distant tourist destinations to accommodate artificially
high numbers of U.S. arrivals for decades, when in the absence of
this restriction, less costly alternative destinations would be
available. The results presented suggest an increase of Caribbean
tourism arrivals of roughly 10 percent, and a shift toward U.S.
tourism. U.S. consumers would experience an increase in purchasing power
as the dead weight loss of the current policy were to be eliminated. For
Caribbean competitors, a hypothetical opening of Cuba to U.S.
tourists would imply hedging toward alternative tourist sources, as
U.S. visitor losses would occur on impact. The results suggest that
binding capacity constraints in Cuba would likely displace current
tourists as new U.S. arrivals with immensely lower travel costs would
compete for limited hotel rooms. Capturing this short-term
dislocation is important for offsetting potential U.S. tourist losses.
The results also suggest that permanent declines in travel costs for
U.S. tourists alongside their importance in this market would
increase their long-term presence in the region. As U.S. tourists would
be able to spend less on getting to their destination, they would be able to
outbid other visitors for greater tourism quality and quantities.
Lifting the embargo will send 1 million more Americans to

Cuba each year.
Woodrow Wilson Center for Latin American Program 10-
(edited by Jose Raul Perales- senior program associate of the Latin American
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, The
United States and Cuba: implication of an Economic Relationship, the
Woodrow Wilson Center for Latin American Program, August 2010,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/LAP_Cuba_Implications.pdf)//
Similarly, the U.S. tourism industry would like to see changes to the
U.S. embargo against Cuba, stated the National Tour Associations
Public Affairs Advocate Steve Richer. An end to travel restrictions could
lead to a surge in up to 1 million U.S. visitors to the island, by some
estimates. Indeed, President Obamas recent easing of travel
restrictions for Cuban Americans has led to an estimated 20

percent increase in U.S. travel to Cuba in the past year through the
seven officially authorized Cuba tour operators. Yet many people are
deliberately testing the administrations position on travel. Some U.S.
citizens are actually flouting the restrictions in the hopes that they will be
charged, thus providing them with a platform to challenge the
constitutionality of the Cuba travel ban in court.
Lifting the embargo will create a 3 million person surge to

Cuba in the first year- more than one tenth of all tourists
in Cuba in the last two decades.
Woodrow Wilson Center for Latin American Program 10-
(edited by Jose Raul Perales- senior program associate of the Latin American
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, The
United States and Cuba: implication of an Economic Relationship, the
Woodrow Wilson Center for Latin American Program, August 2010,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/LAP_Cuba_Implications.pdf)//
Brito argued that the conventional wisdom suggesting that the mere
presence of U.S. tourists will improve the plight of Cubans needs to be
rethought. Tourism is Cubas most important sector and its largest source of
foreign exchange. The island houses approximately 240 hotels with 38,000
rooms. In the last two decades Cuba has received approximately 29
million tourists from 70 countries, yet little has changed politically in
the island. Canada is Cubas largest source of tourism revenue and it sends
the largest number of tourists. Considering that Canada is a consolidated
democracy, were the conventional wisdom to hold this Canadian-Cuban
exchange should have had some sort of positive effect on the islands
politics. Indeed, over 900,000 Canadian visited Cuba in 2009, but they came
largely for reasons of tourism, not human rights. Brito expects that a surge
in U.S. tourism would likewise change little, if anything, within Cuba. He
estimated that the number of U.S. visitors to Cuba would swell to
upwards of 3 million in the year following a lifting of travel
restrictions. However, this tourism itself will not fix Cubas
problems.
Internal link extensions
Tourism causes bad things

Tourism in Cuba causes water pollution, erosion, and acid
rain.
Laakso 11- (Paula- Bachelors candidate, Programme in Tourism, HAMK
University Tourism: Good or Bad?, Bachelors thesis, Degree Programme in

Tourism, HAMK University of Applied Sciences,
http://publications.theseus.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/29547/Paula_Laakso.pdf
?sequence=1)//
Littering has most damaging consequences to the quality of
geological environment. Uncollected waste which is not attractive and it
can produce poison to the soil. Still there are many places with litter
because the litter bins are hardly ever emptied. If the resorts do not
commit to the requirements of cleanliness then not only tourism should
be blamed for pollution. An indirect impact on the geological
environment is acid rain which is caused by heavy metals emitted
into the air by transport. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 189190.) Untreated
waste water is also a problem especially in smaller tourism
companies. Because of economic reasons, local community uses a socalled
interceptor container system but the problem is the wastewater often
running off the interceptors into the soil. The wastewater does not
pollute only the soil, but also the surface and sub-surface of water
affecting then the flora and fauna because most toxins and
polluters infiltrate into the soil through the water. A good example of
that is caused by road transportation like washing cars and changing the oil.
(Boers & Bosh 1994, 33; Hemmi 2005, 4447.) Erosion caused by
tourism is typical especially in mountain areas having negative
impacts especially in the places with thin soil surface (Boers & Bosh
1994, 31). The erosion process will continue because of wind and
rain. It can threaten animals and plants. Caves and mountains are
major tourist attractions, which are affected by the building of routes and
lights construction. Large numbers of visitors cause erosion, e.g. touching
stalactites. (Hemmi 2005, 5457.) The impacts of tourism to the geological
environment are big but they can also contribute to the prevention or the
elimination of geological destruction by technological improvements and with
measures to protect against erosion. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 190191.)
The Cuban government neglects environmental protection

in the favor of tourism, causing desert areas, coastal
degradation, and loss of vegetation.
Cepero 04 (Eudel Eduardo- environmental scientist focused on Cuba, part
of the Urban Issues and the Environment research staff at the Cuban
Research Institute at Florida International University, Environmental
Concerns for a Cuba in Transition, 2004, Cuba Transition Project, Institute for
Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami,
http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/Research_Studies/ECepero.pdf, p. 23-24)//
Over the past forty years, Cubas environment has deteriorated

markedly. The soil, vegetation, and water are the elements that have
suffered the most degradation. Continuous impacts on these natural
resources have produced cumulative negative effects on several
environmental variables, causing them to be classified on an ascending
scale of degradation as moderate, severe, critical, and irreversible. A clear
example is that in some areas the soil variable has reached a nearly
terminal state; consequently, a new landscape has appeared within
the islands geography: desert areas. For decades, the Cuban
governments limited actions on behalf of environmental protection
have failed in the area of land improvement and soil conservation,
despite the fact that the destruction of this resource constitutes
the countrys main ecological problem. Likewise, it is important to note
that number four on the list of most affected natural elements is the
degradation of coastal areas and beaches, resulting from the
impact that tourism has had and continues to exert on major
seaboard systems.
Cubas government turns a blind eye to the expansion of

luxury hotels in Cuba in unsuitable locations which
degrade the environment and introduce non-native
species
Winson 06- (Anthony- professor, Dept. of Sociology and Anthropology,
University of Guelph with focus in sustaining rural communities and local
ecologies in 3rd world countries, Ecotourism and Sustainability in Cuba: Does
Socialism Make a Difference?, Journal of Social Sustainable Tourism, 2006,
Vol. 14 Issue 1, p.6-23, Ebsco Host.
In addition, it is worth noting that relatively large luxury hotels have
been the favoured mode of development along the most attractive
beaches of these islands. Despite some initial efforts to make
accessible the flora and fauna of the archipelago with some infrastructure
such as bird viewing stations along the highway linking two of the islands, as
of 2002 there was little effort to promote environmental awareness
and/or appreciation of local nature in the hotels, which carried on much
as other conventional hotel operations. Meanwhile, exploitation of other
keys in this region has proceeded, as is the case of Cayo Santa
Maria to the west, or is in the planning stage, as with Cayo Anton Chico
on the north side of the extensive Cayo Romano where an exclusive
250 room resort has been proposed (Martinez et al., 2001: 5561). It is not
only on the north coast where environmental issues exist, however,
and Collis (1995: 4534) cites government sources specifically the
Cuban Institute of Physical Planning conceding that the countrys most
intensive tourist zone Veradero was not developed in a manner
that would protect the local environment. Specifically, an excess of
hotels was constructed, at times in unsuitable locations, while the
introduction of non-native plant species had adverse environmental
effects.
Tourism causes ozone depletion, air pollution, and

significant global warming- 60% of fossil fuels are used by
tourists.

?sequence=1)//
The main impacts on air are increasing ozone depletion and the
enrichment of chemical elements in the atmosphere. The obvious
impacts of tourism are air pollution such as transportation, (60% of
the worlds reserves of fossil fuels are consumed by tourism) and all
heating and air conditionings systems in catering and accommodation
establishments. All this may cause increasing global warming. (Boers
& Bosh 1994, 30; Hemmi 2005, 62.) A less obvious impact is the
unpleasant smell in transportation and accommodation establishments.
The noise impacts from transportation, catering, attractions and so on, are in
connection with impacts on air. Noise impacts usually disturb the locals
everyday life and may force some animal species to leave their
habitat. (Williams 1998.) Tourists usually do not consider noise pollution to
be a significant problem because it is usually caused by their entertainment
activities. The solutions to avoid noise pollution from public road traffic can
be isolating walls. There are very few positive impacts on air quality.
For example cars are expelled from shopping centres because of tourism,
but that is an indirect impact and can only be perceived in very limited areas.
Because of the positive economic impacts of tourism, technology can also be
developed to decrease negative emissions. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 187188.)
Tourism causes difficult-to-manage sewage increases, and

water pollution.
?sequence=1)//
From Hemmis (2005, 45) point of view, the most pollution is caused by
cruise liners and their waste dump. The contaminate quality of water and the
water news itself very slowly. According to Rtz & Puczk (2002, 191), the
organic substances especially phosphorous cause eutrophication in the
water. The enrichment of organic substances increases the quantity of
algae, which has negative impacts to tourism when the conditions of safe
swimming are not be guaranteed anymore. Sewage treatment is important to
the environment, but also to the local community. Triple treatment is needed
i.e., physical, chemical and biological, to achieve the adequate cleanliness
level. The problem of sewage treatment is significant in the areas
of mass tourism where tourism is concentrated to the space and
time and also the pressure of the environment is concentrated to
the same place because of attractions. Seasonality different
pressure makes it difficult to define the optimum capacity of sewage

treatment between tourism seasonality and locals needs. (Williams
1998.) A big problem is also sun lotion. Tourists use several hundreds
of bottles during the high season and it is not water soluble. Sun
lotion decreases waters oxygen and affects flora and fauna. Of
course, water transport and leisure boats pollute the water. (Hemmi
2005, 45; Rtz & Puczk 2002, 192.)
Tourism causes a strain on natural resources like fuel and

water, causing shortages for local people.
?sequence=1)//
The over-exploitation of natural resources can be connected to
tourism. This appears in transportation using fuel or in attractions,
accommodations and establishments of catering which are heated
by coal, oil or gas, not by the renewable resources. The fresh water
is also threatened and it is in close connection with sewage system
so it is really important to save water, not to waste it but to use water in
responsible way. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 193). According to Holden (2000), the
impacts of tourisms development occur too often as prohibition of
local peoples access to the water resources. At the same time 100
luxury hotel guests for 55 days will use 15 000 cubic meters of
water whilst the same amount of water will be used by 100 nomads
or by 100 rural farmers in three years and by 100 urban families in
two years.
Tourism can cause over-hunting and fishing, loss of animal

habitat, and forest fires- driving tourists out of the area.
?sequence=1)//
The consuming factors of the nature are fishing and hunting
especially if these are not organized and managed. The perceived
impacts of environment will be affected by the volume and the
nature of activities. The public and new roads and the animal
accidents have increased. However, increased public transport does not
necessarily mean the growth of tourism traffic. The tourism development
usually overtakes agricultural areas which can cause the meadows
and groves to disappear. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 197198.) All this can
cause ecological disturbance, first changes in the composition of
flora and then changes in the fauna. The result of the process can
be a disappearance of some plants and animal species and some
other unforeseeable consequences in long term. The disappearance

of natural land can increase the threat of erosion. Animals change
their habitat for many different reasons such as disturbances of
tourists, hunting and not finding food. After animals departure the
tourism area may lost its attraction and basis. (Williams 1998.)
Collecting souvenirs is an impact of tourism and can damage the
environment in the target country. The impact can be direct,
collecting protected plants or hunting by tourists or it can be indirect
when local community or enterprises start to collect and sell protected or
rare species to earn their livelihood and to respond to tourists demand.
(Shaw & Williams 2004, 27 28.) Tourism services are consuming in other
ways too, e.g. using packing materials or raw materials for catering. The
others not so common impacts of tourism are causing forest fires,
collecting wood illegally, which is done by local people who collect wood
for their normal subsistence. This is usually called subsistence crime. The
visual tourism impacts can increase the value of the environment. A
plantation of typical flowers and plants offers positive impacts both to the
local people and tourists. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 200201.) So, when the
development of tourism is planning and led by highly skilled people with
revaluation thoughts most of the negative impacts can be avoided.
(Saukkonen 1999, 31).
Those bad thinks kill reefs

Ocean acidification creates massive losses in Caribbean
reefs.
Pulwarty 10- (Roger S., Caribbean Islands, Environment Magazine,
Volume 52, Number 6, November/December 2010, EBSCO)//

The Caribbean region experienced an average sea-level rise of about
10 centimeters over the twentieth century. Satellite data over the past
15 years show a global sea-level rise that is twice the rate observed over the
past century, even as the rate of atmospheric warming has slowed. This
measure is not uniform over the region, since some islands (Barbados) are
experiencing geologic uplift, and all have varied coastal composition and
bathymetry. A global sea level rise of one meter is projected for the
end of the century. For a one-meter rise, Antigua and St. Kitts are
estimated to have potential adaptation costs of 32 percent and 27 percent of
GDP, respectively.27 It should be noted that sediment availability and
wetland evolution in these estimates are highly uncertain. In the
past 200 years, oceans have absorbed approximately one-third to
one-half of the anthropogenic CO2 resulting in a 30 percent increase
in the concentration of hydrogen ions. This ocean acidification"
reduces the ability of living organisms to create calcium carbonatebased shells and skeletons, increasing the erosivity of existing
reefs. Projections of current acidification could result in reductions
of 14 to 30 percent in calcification rates of corals by 2050.
Notwithstanding ocean thermal limits, several studies acknowledge that
atmospheric C02 concentrations must be maintained at significantly
below double the pre-industrial levels if the present benefits of coral
reefs are to be maintained?0
Local runoff, pollution, and sediment from nearby areas

greatly harm reefs- focusing on solving local problems
gives reefs the best chance of surviving global ones.
Henley 11- (Mike, manager of the Smithsonian National Zoos coral
collection, Coral reefs are hotspots for biodiversity but they face many
threats (Q&A), Rare Conservation blog, August 4 th 2011,
http://www.rareconservation.org/blog/2011/08/04/coral-reefs-are-hotspots-forbiodiversity-but-they-face-many-threats-qa/)//
How important are coral reefs to our oceans? Coral reefs are extremely
important to the health of the oceans. They are hotspots for
biodiversity, and while they cover less than 1 percent of the oceans,
it is estimated that at least a quarter of all marine life spends at
least part of their life on a coral reef. If we lose reefs, then we are
losing not just the organisms that inhabit reefs but also those that
indirectly depend on reefs for survival. What immediate threats are
coral reefs facing? What will they be facing in the future? Direct pollution,
runoff from land-based sources of pollution, sedimentation from land
development that can smother corals and other reef inhabitants,
destructive fishing and over-fishing the oceans and global climate

change are probably the biggest threats right now. Climate change will
continue to negatively affect coral reefs, resulting in more mass bleaching
episodes (loss or expulsion of the endosymbiotic algae that provide the coral
with much of its food) and ocean acidification the lowering of the pH
of the ocean as more and more carbon dioxide is sequestered by the
oceans has the potential to be extremely detrimental not only to
corals and reefs, but possibly every organism in the oceans, all the
way down to the phytoplankton. Unfortunately, the closer a coral
reef is to human development and disturbance, the less healthy it
often is, and there are often more cases of coral disease in these
locations. As the human population continues to exponentially grow,
the oceans will be taxed with more and more resources to provide,
and they are running out. How can be prevent or mitigate these threats?
One has to separate the stressors into local and global issues and
try to mitigate the local stressors so these ecosystems can have a
better fighting chance at adapting to the global changes. For
example, educating oneself about and choosing sustainable seafood for
healthy oceans, using reusable shopping bags instead of plastic bags and
supporting organizations/projects that are directly involved in coral reef
conservation are just some of the things a person can do to help coral reefs.
Caribbean is key
The Caribbean is home to the most diverse an unique
species- losing species there cuts deep in global
biodiversity.
The Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund 12 (Caribbean
Islands Biodiversity Hotspot: Ecosystem Profile Summary, Critical
Ecosystems Partnership Fund, 2012,
http://www.cepf.net/SiteCollectionDocuments/caribbean/Caribbean_EP_Summ
ary.pdf)//
The Caribbean Islands hotspot also supports important freshwater
habitats, including rivers, streams, lakes, wetlands and underground
karst networks. In addition to providing habitat for many
important, unique and migratory animals and plants, these freshwater
sites provide clean water, food, hydroelectricity and many other
services to local communities. These services are especially
important as the small islands of the insular Caribbean are
surrounded by salt water, and rely greatly on limited, land-based fresh
water from functional ecosystems. The hotspot supports a wealth of
biodiversity within its terrestrial ecosystems, with a high proportion
of species that are endemic, or unique, to the hotspot. It includes
about 11,000 plant species, of which 72 percent are endemic. For
vertebrates, high proportions of endemic species characterize the
herpetofauna (100 percent of 189 amphibian species and 95 percent of
520 reptile species), likely due to their low dispersal rates, in contrast to the
more mobile birds (26 percent of 564 species) and mammals (74 percent
of 69 species, most of which are bats). Species endemic to the hotspot
represent 2.6 percent of the worlds 300,000 plant species, and 3.5
percent of the worlds 27,298 vertebrate species. The hotspot is
the heart of Atlantic marine diversity. Roughly 8 percent to 35 percent of
species within the major marine taxa found globally are endemic to the
hotspot. The shallow marine environment contains 25 coral genera, 117
sponges, 633 mollusks, more than 1,400 fishes, 76 sharks, 45 shrimp, 30
cetaceans and 23 species of seabirds. The Caribbean contains
approximately 10,000 square kilometers of reef, 22,000 square
kilometers of mangrove, and as much as 33,000 square kilometers of
seagrass beds. The region also provides wintering and nursery grounds for
many Northern Atlantic migratory species, including the great North Atlantic
humpback whale, which reproduces in the northern Caribbean seascape.
Impacts
Moral Obligation
We have a moral responsibility to save corals- reefs are
crucial to the marine ecosystem, keeping 1 billion people
alive
Jha 09- (Alok- science correspondent at the Guardian, Coral condemned
to extinction by CO2 levels, warns Attenborough, July 7 th 2009, The
Guardian,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/07/coral-attenborough
)//
Coral reefs support a quarter of all marine life including more than
4,000 species of fish. They also provide spawning, nursery, refuge
and feeding areas for creatures such as lobsters, crabs, starfish and
sea turtles. This makes them crucial in supporting a healthy marine
ecosystem upon which more than 1bn people depend for food. Reefs
also play a crucial role as natural breakwaters, protecting coastlines
from storms. Attenborough said the world had a "moral responsibility"
to save corals.
Turns Case- Kills tourism

Tourism can cause over-hunting and fishing, loss of animal
habitat, and forest fires- driving tourists out of the area.
?sequence=1)//
The consuming factors of the nature are fishing and hunting
especially if these are not organized and managed. The perceived
impacts of environment will be affected by the volume and the
nature of activities. The public and new roads and the animal
accidents have increased. However, increased public transport does not
necessarily mean the growth of tourism traffic. The tourism development
usually overtakes agricultural areas which can cause the meadows
and groves to disappear. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 197198.) All this can
cause ecological disturbance, first changes in the composition of
flora and then changes in the fauna. The result of the process can
be a disappearance of some plants and animal species and some
other unforeseeable consequences in long term. The disappearance
of natural land can increase the threat of erosion. Animals change
their habitat for many different reasons such as disturbances of
tourists, hunting and not finding food. After animals departure the
tourism area may lost its attraction and basis. (Williams 1998.)
Collecting souvenirs is an impact of tourism and can damage the
environment in the target country. The impact can be direct,
collecting protected plants or hunting by tourists or it can be indirect
when local community or enterprises start to collect and sell protected or
rare species to earn their livelihood and to respond to tourists demand.
(Shaw & Williams 2004, 27 28.) Tourism services are consuming in other
ways too, e.g. using packing materials or raw materials for catering. The
others not so common impacts of tourism are causing forest fires,
collecting wood illegally, which is done by local people who collect wood
for their normal subsistence. This is usually called subsistence crime. The
visual tourism impacts can increase the value of the environment. A
plantation of typical flowers and plants offers positive impacts both to the
local people and tourists. (Rtz & Puczk 2002, 200201.) So, when the
development of tourism is planning and led by highly skilled people with
revaluation thoughts most of the negative impacts can be avoided.
(Saukkonen 1999, 31).
Tourism and overdevelopment severely threaten coral

reefs and fish, and reduce the value of beaches and other
tourism hotspots.
The Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund 12 (Caribbean
Islands Biodiversity Hotspot: Ecosystem Profile Summary, Critical
Ecosystems Partnership Fund, 2012,

http://www.cepf.net/SiteCollectionDocuments/caribbean/Caribbean_EP_Summ
ary.pdf)//
The main threats to the terrestrial biodiversity today are habitat
destruction and fragmentation due to the expansion of agriculture,
cities, tourism and commercial development. Overexploitation of
living resources, predation and competition by invasive alien
species are also significant threats. Pollution and sedimentation
has negatively affected marine environments by smothering coral
reefs, killing fish and reducing the recreational value of beaches.
Climate change is believed to have increased the frequency and intensity of
hurricanes and droughts. Sea level rise and a general drying trend also is an
important concern. A major priority therefore in addressing climate change
is to formulate and implement strategies for adaptation to mitigate the social
and environmental impacts.
Biodiversity
Loss of biodiversity leads to famines, natural disasters,
diseases, and conflict leading to nuclear war.
Takacs 96- (David- professor at the University of California, Hastings
College of Law, focusing on policy issues and global climate change, The Idea
of Biodiversity: Philosophies of Paradise, 1996, p200-201
So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value and of itself, as
well as for us. Raven, Erwin, and Wilson oblige us to think about the value
of biodiversity for our own lives. The Ehrlichs rivet-popper trope makes this
same point; by eliminating rivets, we play Russian roulette with
global ecology and human futures: It is likely that destruction of the rich
complex of species in the Amazon basin could trigger rapid changes in global
climate patterns. Agriculture remains heavily dependent on stable
climate, and human beings remain heavily dependent on food. By
the end of the century the extinction of perhaps a million species in
the Amazon basin could have entrained famines in which a billion
human beings perished. And if our species is very unlucky, the
famines could lead to a thermonuclear war, which could extinguish
civilization. 13 Elsewhere Ehrlich uses different particulars with no less
drama: What then will happen if the current decimation of organic
diversity continues? Crop yields will be more difficult to maintain in
the face of climatic change, soil erosion, loss of dependable water
supplies, decline of pollinators, and ever more serious assaults by
pests. Conversion of productive land to wasteland will accelerate;
deserts will continue their seemingly inexorable expansion. Air
pollution will increase, and local climates will become harsher.
Humanity will have to forgo many of the direct economic benefits it
might have withdrawn from Earth's wellstocked genetic library. It
might, for example, miss out on a cure for cancer; but that will make
little difference. As ecosystem services falter, mortality from
respiratory and epidemic disease, natural disasters, and especially
famine will lower life expectancies to the point where cancer (largely a
disease of the elderly) will be unimportant. Humanity will bring upon
itself consequences depressingly similar to those expected from a
nuclear winter. Barring a nuclear conflict, it appears that civilization will
disappear some time before the end of the next century - not with a bang but
a whimper.14
Biodiversity loss caused by humans will bring our demise.

Chivan 11 (Eric, director of the Project on Global Environmental Change
and Health, and member of Physicians for Social Responsibility, Species
Extinction, Biodiversity Loss and Human Health, in Environmental Health
Hazards, from the Encyclopedia of Occupational Health and Safety, 2011,
http://www.ilo.org/oshenc/part-vii/environmental-health-hazards/item/505species-extinction-biodiversity-loss-and-human-health)//
Human activity is causing the extinction of animal, plant and

microbial species at rates that are a thousand times greater than
those which would have occurred naturally (Wilson l992), approximating
the largest extinctions in geological history. When homo sapiens evolved,
some l00 thousand years ago, the number of species that existed was the
largest ever to inhabit the Earth (Wilson l989). Current rates of species loss
are reducing these levels to the lowest since the end of the Age of Dinosaurs,
65 million years ago, with estimates that one-fourth of all species will become
extinct in the next 50 years (Ehrlich and Wilson l99l). In addition to the
ethical issues involved - that we have no right to kill off countless
other organisms, many of which came into being tens of millions of years
prior to our arrival - this behaviour is ultimately self-destructive,
upsetting the delicate ecological balance on which all life depends,
including our own, and destroying the biological diversity that
makes soils fertile, creates the air we breathe and provides food and
other life-sustaining natural products, most of which remain to be
discovered. The exponential growth in human population coupled
with an even greater rise in the consumption of resources and in the
production of wastes, are the main factors endangering the survival
of other species. Global warming, acid rain, the depletion of
stratospheric ozone and the discharge of toxic chemicals into the air,
soil and fresh- and salt-water ecosystems - all these ultimately lead
to a loss of biodiversity. But it is habitat destruction by human
activities, particularly deforestation, that is the greatest destroyer.
A2: Warming/Alt Causes

Local runoff, pollution, and sediment from nearby areas
greatly harm reefs- focusing on solving local problems
gives reefs the best chance of surviving global ones.
Henley 11- (Mike, manager of the Smithsonian National Zoos coral
collection, Coral reefs are hotspots for biodiversity but they face many
threats (Q&A), Rare Conservation blog, August 4 th 2011,
http://www.rareconservation.org/blog/2011/08/04/coral-reefs-are-hotspots-forbiodiversity-but-they-face-many-threats-qa/)//
How important are coral reefs to our oceans? Coral reefs are extremely
important to the health of the oceans. They are hotspots for
biodiversity, and while they cover less than 1 percent of the oceans,
it is estimated that at least a quarter of all marine life spends at
least part of their life on a coral reef. If we lose reefs, then we are
losing not just the organisms that inhabit reefs but also those that
indirectly depend on reefs for survival. What immediate threats are
coral reefs facing? What will they be facing in the future? Direct pollution,
runoff from land-based sources of pollution, sedimentation from land
development that can smother corals and other reef inhabitants,
destructive fishing and over-fishing the oceans and global climate
change are probably the biggest threats right now. Climate change will
continue to negatively affect coral reefs, resulting in more mass bleaching
episodes (loss or expulsion of the endosymbiotic algae that provide the coral
with much of its food) and ocean acidification the lowering of the pH
of the ocean as more and more carbon dioxide is sequestered by the
oceans has the potential to be extremely detrimental not only to
corals and reefs, but possibly every organism in the oceans, all the
way down to the phytoplankton. Unfortunately, the closer a coral
reef is to human development and disturbance, the less healthy it
often is, and there are often more cases of coral disease in these
locations. As the human population continues to exponentially grow,
the oceans will be taxed with more and more resources to provide,
and they are running out. How can be prevent or mitigate these threats?
One has to separate the stressors into local and global issues and
try to mitigate the local stressors so these ecosystems can have a
better fighting chance at adapting to the global changes. For
example, educating oneself about and choosing sustainable seafood for
healthy oceans, using reusable shopping bags instead of plastic bags and
supporting organizations/projects that are directly involved in coral reef
conservation are just some of the things a person can do to help coral reefs.
A2: Environmental reform laws

Lack of counter-pressure by environmental groups dooms
environmental laws to failure.
For Dr. Guggenheim, the best lessons for Cubans to ponder as they
contemplate a more prosperous future can be seen 90 miles north, in
the Florida Keys. There, he said, too many people have poured into an
ecosystem too fragile to support them. As Cuba becomes an
increasingly popular tourist resort, Dr. Guggenheim said, we dont
want to see and they dont want to see the same mistakes, where
you literally love something to death. But there are people
skeptical that Cuba will resist this kind of pressure. One of them is Mr.
Houck. The environmental laws he worked on are a very strong
structure, he said, But all laws do is give you the opportunity to
slow down the wrong thing. Over time, you can wear the law
down. That is particularly true in Cuba, he said, where theres no
armed citizenry out there with high-powered science groups pushing
in the opposite direction. What they lack is the counter pressure of
environmental groups and environmental activists.
Lack of public disclosure and enforcement mechanism

cripples the 1997 environmental laws.

In addition to creating the new Ministry, new legislation developed
by this Ministry and enacted in 1997 shaped the contours of the
Ministrys powers concerning the environment. The new Law of the
Environment of 1997 has been described as more ambitious in its
goals and its details than any comparable legislation in the United
States or Western Europe (Houck, 2003: 4). It embraces a very wide
array of concerns, from programmes in air, water and waste to historic
preservation, biological diversity, national parks, forests and environmental
impact assessment and planning. Of particular interest to this paper is the
Environmental Laws impact with respect to protected areas. As part of its
mandate the new law establishes the basic objectives for what has come to
be called the National System of Protected Areas, and gives the new Ministry
powers to direct and control activities related to these areas in coordination
with other relevant organisations (CNAP, 2001: 4). As part of its mandate the
new law lays out and formalises eight new categories of protected areas,
which range from a few very limited zones designated as natural reserves
designed to protect rare genetic resources and exempted from any type of
human exploitation and activity, to much larger areas designated as national
parks or ecological reserves which permit a range of activities including
recreation and tourism, but are also mandated to guarantee the conservation
of biological diversity and to promote respect for the outstanding ecological,
geomorphological, cultural and aesthetic features they contain (C.N.A.P.,
2001: 1213). As Houck (2003: 6) has argued, for such a law to function
minimal levels of open disclosure, public participation and
disinterested review will be necessary. Moreover, the CITMA is
judged to have few obvious mechanisms to encourage compliance,
and few obvious sanctions such as judgements or fines (Houck, 2003:
7). As well, the success or failure of the new legal regime will be
shaped by the wider bureaucratic environment, which has been
evolving throughout the 1990s towards a more decentralised model.
Despite reform in law, concrete projects fail to promote

conservation.
At the level of concrete tourism projects, which is where the lofty
policy pronouncements of governments work themselves out, there
are some issues emerging. Clearly a perennial concern that
advocates of sustainable tourism are forced to confront is
ultimately a political issue: who shall control the resources
generated by tourism (see Hall, 1994: 1214). In Cuba this manifests
itself in the relationship between local communities and
individuals, on the one hand, and the state on the other.
Governments and large corporate players that provide expensive
infrastructure and other financing for tourism projects will likely
always lay claim to much of the revenues generated locally. Ideally
though, part of the revenue stream should remain locally, to assist
conservation efforts, and to support community development, particularly
if the project involves restricting locals access and exploitation of natural
areas. In many parts of the world, as Weber (1993) has argued, the
communities that sacrifice the most for conservation receive the
least in return.
Disagreement, poor planning, and cost-cutting measures

undermine any attempt by Cuba to mitigate the
environmental impact of tourism- Cayo Coco proves.

Questionable projects and practices were already established as part
of the tourist scene by the 1990s. One of the most high profile
tourist projects in this period was to develop the potential of the
extensive chain of large islands or keys lying just off the central north
shore of Cuba in Camaguey province. Initial plans to protect the
environment were seriously set back by the construction of an
extensive 17 kilometre solid earth causeway to Cayo Coco, which
inevitably damaged the fragile brackish water ecosystem of this
biologically valuable zone and illustrated the weakness of the
agency then charged with environmental protection. As Collis (1995)
has noted, the initial plan for Cayo Coco by the national organisation
charged with protecting the environment the National Commission for
the Protection of the Environment and the Rational use of Natural Resources
(COMARNA) was undermined. The plan called for a causeway that would
minimise impact on the fragile and biologically valuable estuarine ecosystem
of this zone by utilising bridges and existing intermediary islands. When all
parties involved in the project could not agree on this design, it was
referred to a higher authority for a decision the Council of Ministers.
Here, financial exigencies won out and a lower cost direct route that
entailed the building of a solid earth causeway, some 17 kilometres long,
was approved. Collis (1995) notes that, after some pressure, a number
of tunnels to allow some flow of tidal waters were permitted.
Nevertheless, as the author ascertained in 2002, the gaps are few and
far between, and inevitably the ecosystem of this fragile zone has
been seriously affected as the normal flow of tidal waters has been
thwarted. Fortunately a bridge, rather than a causeway, was utilised to link
Cayo Coco with Cayo Guillermo and the substantial tidal flow between these
islands has been maintained. A well-placed key informant told the
author in 2003 that the original environmental assessment of this
project had apparently only assessed the carrying capacity of the
beaches of this zone, and had not been focused on the fragile
ecosystem of the inter-coastal waters separating the keys from the main
island of Cuba. If true, this might explain why such a problematic
causeway was approved in the first place.
A2: Eco-Tourism
Collaboration by big tourist companies, and land
ownership by the Ministry of Agriculture prevents
conservation and ecologically-sustainable tourism.

With respect to unsound practices, in 1996 key informants with
considerable experience in the ecological tourism area reported to
the author that several para-statal tourism organisations, each
competing with the other to develop what was essentially a market for
nature tourism, had little positive impact with respect to conservation
of natural areas. The principal organisations included Gaviota, Horizontes,
Rumbos and Cubanacan. It was also noted that the prevailing mentality
of some of these agencies militated against the development of the
few organisations oriented towards a more ecologically sustainable
tourism because of the reluctance of these larger and established
agencies to pass on clients desirous of a more sustainable ecotourism experience. There were also issues of a more general
bureaucratic nature that impeded sound policies and practices vis-visthe environment and protection of natural areas. For example,
the Ministry of Agriculture controlled a number of zones that were
important from the point of view of their potential for ecotourism, and
because of their bio-diversity. It was inevitable, however, that sooner
or later any serious attempts to conserve these areas would come
into conflict with the Ministrys principal mandate to promote the
nations agricultural development. Conflicting mandates over
development versus conservation within state bureaucracies are, of
course, a perennial problem of our time the world over, including the
wealthiest developed nations. It is unfortunate that conservation is so often
the fatality when mandates conflict.
No modeling of ecotourism- Sustainable projects,

decentralized projects after La Terrazas have failed.
While there is evidence in the case of the Las Terrazas project that locally
generated revenues have gone in the past, at least in part, to reinforce
community development, it is less clear that this rather experimental project
has had a strong influence in determining themodus operandiof other

projects evolving in the countrys protected natural areas. In at least one
significant case, the Topes de Coyante of the Escambray mountain region
of central Cuba, a key informant well acquainted with the situation
told the author that local families who earned their income from
offering excursions into the local protected area on horseback have
been denied the possibility to do so in the future, and the activity
taken over by the large government tourist company Gaviota. In
other areas of the country, such as the Viales tourist region in the
province of Pinar del Rio, the authors interviews with a few local
families attempting to offer accommodation services indicated that
they are very restricted in what they can and cannot do because of
what appears to be a burdensome and tightly enforced regulatory
structure (authors interviews, 2003). Overall, it would appear that at
present a rather small proportion of tourist revenues generated locally stays
at that level. A major issue underlying this situation is the matter of
who will have access to scarce foreign exchange the state via its
tourist agencies and hotel chains or some of the local residents
who have the wherewithal to offer acceptable accommodations and
other services. This is not a simple issue either, since at least in Cuba the
state provides a variety of critical social services free of charge to the
general population that need to be funded by such sources as tourist
revenues, and not all locals are positioned to reap benefits from eco-tourist
activities. In other words, the state in this context plays some role of
spreading out the benefits of tourism to the rest of society. Nevertheless, the
perception by at least some locals who wish to offer such services is that the
state wants all the action for itself.
Tourism DA Answers
No Link
No link- no flood of American tourists
CAPA Centre for Aviation 11- (provider of aviation market
intelligence, analysis, and data services, Cuba may not get traffic flood as
gateways opened, CAPA Centre for Aviation, March 10 th 2011,
http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/cuba-may-not-see-huge-traffic-flood47456)//
While the curiosity may be high as new charter services are now allowed
between eight US airports and Cuba, it is unlikely that the liberalisation
of 50-year-old travel restrictions will release a flood of traffic,
according to Boyd Group International President Mike Boyd, whose
organisation just issued a study to that effect. The report also suggested that
there is not a lot of appetite for tourist/beach traffic potential and, in
fact, will be much less than expected. Gateways include Baltimore,
Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, New Orleans, Chicago O'Hare, Pittsburgh, Tampa
and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Using statistics prior to the reimposition of travel
restrictions by President George Bush in 2004, Mr Boyd indicated that Miami
was, by far, the largest gateway to the island with 95.5% of the charter traffic
compared with 4.2% over Kennedy and 0.3% from Los Angeles. Service is
limited to charter flights, which can already operate between the two
countries. Travel is limited to religious, academic, journalistic or cultural
reasons under a more liberal Obama policy which restored new rules imposed
during the Clinton Administration. The new 'VFR' - Visiting Family and
Relatives - rules will, without question, tend to increase the demand for this
specific traffic segment, said Mr Boyd. But there is a misconception that
just ending the US embargo will open a floodgate of tourist and business
travel between the USA and Cuba. Our analyses do not support such a
contention. Under any range of circumstances, there would not be
anywhere near a flood of new air travel demand to Cuba in the
near-term. Actually, there isn't even any external gate at the present time
keeping trade or tourism out of Cuba. What most Americans do not
realise is that Cuba can and does trade freely with the rest of the
world, and currently has air service access to the globe. Opening up
the ability for selling US goods to Cuba does not necessarily mean the Cuban
government wants it. Or, can afford it.
Affs a prerequisite 2 conservation

Lifting the embargo is a prereq. to conservation- visas for
scientists.
Cuban scientists at the conference noted that this work continued a tradition
of collaboration that dates from the mid-19th century, when Cuban
researchers began working with naturalists from the Smithsonian Institution.
In the 20th century, naturalists from Harvard and the University of Havana
worked together for decades. But now, they said, collaborative
relationships are full of problems. The Cancn meeting itself illustrated
one. We would have liked to be able to do this in Havana or in the United
States, Jorge Luis Fernndez Chamero, the director of the Cuban science and
environment agency and leader of the Cuban delegation, said through a
translator in opening the meeting. This we cannot do. While the
American government grants licenses to some (but not all) American
scientists seeking to travel to Cuba, it routinely rejects Cuban
researchers seeking permission to come to the United States,
researchers from both countries said. So meeting organizers turned to
Alberto Mariano Vzquez De la Cerda, a retired admiral in the Mexican navy,
an oceanographer with a doctorate from Texas A & M and a member of the
Harte advisory board, who supervised arrangements for the Cuban
conferees. The travel situation is potentially even worse for
researchers at state institutions in Florida. Jennifer Gebelein, a
geographer at Florida International University who uses global positioning
systems to track land use in Cuba, told the meeting about restrictions
imposed by the Florida Legislature, which has barred state colleges from
using public or private funds for travel to Cuba. As a result of this move
and federal restrictions, Dr. Gebelein said were not sure what is
going to happen with her research program.
Lifting the embargo is a prereq. to conservation- boats.

If you are going to do marine science, at some point you have to go
out on a ship, said Robert E. Hueter, who directs the center for shark
research at the Mote Marine Laboratory in Sarasota, Fla., and attended the
Cancn meeting. But, he and others said, the United States government
will not allow ships into American ports if they have recently been in
Cuban waters in the previous six months, and the Cuban government
will not allow American research vessels in Cuban waters. One answer
might be vessels already in Cuba, but nowadays they are often tied up
in tourism-related efforts, Cubans at the Cancn meeting said. And even

with a ship, several American researchers at the conference said, it is difficult
to get Cuban government permission to travel to places like the islands
northwest coast, the stretch closest to the United States. As a result, that
region is the least-studied part of the Cuban coast, Dr. Guggenheim and
others said.
Development is sustainable
Cubas the only country with sustainable developmenttourism will be eco-friendly.
Leftside 06- (governmental urban planner, blogger about Latin America
and the Caribbean, WWF: Cuba is Only Sustainable Country in World, A
View to the South, October 26, 2006,
http://aviewtothesouth.blogspot.com/2006/10/wwf-cuba-is-only-sustainablecountry.html)//
A report published by the World Wildlife Foundation(WWF) says that the
only country in the world with "sustainable development" is Cuba.
WWF includes in its report a graph that shows two features: the human
development index (established by the United Nations) and the
"ecological footprint" which shows the per-person energy and resources
consumed in each country. Not surprisingly to those whove followed
Cuban environmental policies, only Cuba has passed in both arenas,
which is enough to be designated a country that "meets the
minimum sensitivity criteria". The study's authors credit the high
level of literacy, long life expectancy and low consumption of energy
for this success.
Cuba is taking actions to fight beach erosion and make

tourism sustainable.
Hindustan Times 6-3 (syndicated from the Philippines News Agency,
Feature: Cuba demolishes buildings to fight beach erosion,, June 3 2013,
Lexis Nexis)//
Cuba is demolishing buildings constructed over the natural dunes of
its famed seaside resort of Varadero in a bid to fight beach erosion
at its top tourist attraction. Some 19 buildings in Varadero have been
razed, and another 21 atop dunes along the resort's 22-kilometer coastline
are slated to be knocked down, 10 of them by the end of this year.
Random construction is one of the main causes of erosion at more
than 400 beaches around the Caribbean island nation, which is losing sand
beaches at the rate of more than a meter a year, said Ivis Fernandez, an
official with Cuba's Tourism Ministry. The authorities are also fighting
beach erosion by trucking sand to beef up certain beaches in
Varadero, and some 3 million cubic meters of sand has already been
"replanted" in recent years. "We're spreading the sand through a ...
technique that in a short time restores the natural state of the
beaches," said Jose Luis Juanes, chief of the Department of Coastal
Procedures at the Oceanology Institute of the Environment, Science and
Technology Ministry.
Coalitions of US and Cuban scientists, NGOs, and govt.

organizations are working on sustainable tourism and
environmental protection.
States News Service 12- (UC Santa Barbara-based Sustainable
Ocean Solutions aims to aid Vulnerable Fisheries, June 28 2012, Lexis

Nexis)//
How will Cuba's increasing prospects for trade, and tourism, impact
its ocean areas and the fish that populate them? Will its sea life
suffer overexploitation in the name of commerce and recreation? Will
its fishermen lose income, or jobs, as fish stocks deplete? A still-young
project born at UC Santa Barbara is considering such questions,
developing solutions to the problems facing fisheries and other
ocean uses on Cuba and other countries around the world and teaching
affected communities how to use them. A new grant is providing
momentum toward that goal. On the heels of a similar-sized grant a year
ago, the Waitt Foundation has awarded $500,000 to an interdisciplinary
partnership of two UCSB entities the Bren School of Environmental Science
and Management and the Marine Science Institute (MSI) known as the
Sustainable Fisheries Group (SFG). The money is earmarked for an
ongoing project, Sustainable Ocean Solutions (SOS), which first
launched in 2011 with a $400,000 award from the ocean-focused foundation
established by Gateway Inc. founder Ted Waitt. "The Waitt Foundation is our
core support our biggest, overarching support," said SFG research and
program manager Sarah Lester, a project scientist at MSI and Bren. "Their
funding allows us to tie together all the pieces of what we do, which is so
crucial." With ongoing initiatives in the Galapagos Islands, Cuba,
Bermuda, Indonesia, and California, among other locations, SOS is
employing ocean management, conservation, and sustainability
practices, in unison, to protect even bolster the health of such
vulnerable low-volume fisheries worldwide. An interdisciplinary
consortium of scientists, ecologists, and economists, the group is
also teaming with governments, non-governmental organizations
(NGO's), conservationists, and stakeholders including fishermen's
unions. Together they are blending academic research and
development with real-time projects on the water to design and
implement such solutions as fisheries rights, also known as catch
shares; marine-protected areas and spatial management, or zoning;
as well as seafood sustainability ratings and other supply-chain
initiatives. "Any one of those things might have some positive effect,
though small, but by combining them we can enhance the
sustainability, we argue, of essentially any fishery in the world," said
principal investigator Christopher Costello, a professor of environmental and
resource economics at the Bren School, who credits a conversation with Waitt
himself for the conception of SOS. "The Waitt Foundation is incredibly
supportive of that approach. Ted Waitt is actively involved, and really
engaged with the work. He is a tremendous champion of the oceans and has
been an outstanding partner."
Cuba is already protecting its reefs, and working with

environmental protection programs.
Whittle, Rader, and Dixon 1-16 (Dan- senior attorney at
Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and director of its Cuba Program, DougPhD and EDFs Chief Oceans Scientist, and Violet- Marketing Communications
Associate for EDFs Oceans program, Protecting Cubas Abundant Coral
Reefs, Sailors For the Sea.ORG, January 16 2013,
http://sailorsforthesea.org/sailing-and-the-environment/ocean-watch/oceanwatch-essays/protecting-cubas-abundant-coral-reefs-.aspx)//
Environmental Defense Fund has worked collaboratively for 12 years
with scientists, managers, environmentalists and others to develop
new approaches to protect marine biodiversity in Cuba and in the
shared waters of the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic
Ocean. Our successful partnerships are a foundation for broader
dialogue and cooperation on environmental and natural resource
matters. Cubans realize that the long-term value of maintaining
healthy coral reefs is higher than the short-term profits that may
come from tourism development, unless tourism is carefully
balanced with conservation. Officials are preparing plans to expand
recreational fishing, boating and diving opportunities in ways that
respect the fragile coral reefs and other coastal and marine
ecosystems. Creating marine parks The Cuban National Center for
Protected Areas has set an ambitious target of designating 25% of
their coastal waters in MPAs. Currently, between 10 and 15% are
already officially approved as MPAs, including the Gardens of the Queen.
Setting aside critical habitat for turtles, sharks, groupers and innumerable
other species is only the first step. Because coral reef animals are dependent
on near-shore mangrove swamps and seagrass beds as nurseries, protecting
all kinds of shallow-water habitats help sustain coral reefs offshore. The
combination of protected areas and sound fishery management that
motivates fishermen to help protect the parks and fish populations is critical.
Alt Causes
Global warmings a larger threat than pollution to reefsimpact is inevitable.
Martin 6-5 (Caitlin- major in environmental studies at the University of
Southern California, The Effects of Climate Change on Coral Reef Health,
Scientific American Blog, June 5 2013,
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/expeditions/2013/06/05/the-effects-ofclimate-change-on-coral-reef-health/)//
Coral reefs are one of the most diverse ecosystems on this planet. They are
home to numerous species of marine life and offer a plethora of benefits both
to natural ecosystems and to the human population. Coral reefs bring in
enormous funds to coastal countries through tourism, fishing, and discoveries
of new biochemicals and drugs (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999). Additionally, they
provide natural coastal protection and building materials (Hoegh-Guldberg
1999). However, coral reefs are experiencing massive die-outs all
around the world. At first, many thought the biggest threats to coral
reef health were direct anthropogenic effects such as water
pollution and sedimentation, but now it is clear that the problem is
much larger in scale (Wilkinson 2011). 50-70% of coral reefs are
directly affected by anthropogenic global climate change (HoeghGuldberg 1999). Rising global temperatures, increasing oceanic CO2,
and other consequences of climate change are all affecting coral reef
health in a negative way. This blog explores some of the most pressing
issues regarding climate change and coral reef health, with a special focus on
the coral reefs in Guam and Palau.
Greenhouse gas already in the atmosphere will degrade

corals by 2030.
Chestney 12 (Nina- senior environmental markets correspondent,
Climate Change: Coral Reefs Expected to Suffer Greatly, Study Finds,

Huffington Post, September 16 2012,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/16/climate-change-coralreefs_n_1888288.html)//
The chance to save the world's coral reefs from damage caused by
climate change is dwindling as man-made greenhouse gas emissions
continue to rise, scientists said in a study released on Sunday. Around 70
percent of corals are expected to suffer from long-term degradation
by 2030, even if strict emission cuts are enforced, according to the
study. "The window of opportunity to preserve the majority of coral
reefs, part of the world's natural heritage, is small," said Malte
Meinshausen, co-author of the report published in the journal Nature Climate
Change. "We close this window if we follow another decade of
ballooning global greenhouse-gas emissions." Coral reefs are home to
almost a quarter of the world's ocean species, they provide coastal protection
and can support tourism and fishing industries for millions of people
worldwide. The rise of global average temperatures, warmer seas and
the spread of ocean acidification due to greenhouse gas emissions,
however, pose major threats to coral ecosystems. The scientists from
the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the University of British
Columbia and the universities of Melbourne and Queensland in Australia used
climate models to calculate the effects of different emissions levels on 2,160
reefs worldwide. World carbon dioxide emissions increased by more than 3
percent last year and global average temperatures have risen by about 0.8
degrees Celsius over the past century. Coral reefs face serious threats
even if global warming is restricted to a 2 degrees Celsius limit,
which is widely viewed as a safe threshold to avert the most devastating
effects of climate change, such as drought, sea level rise or crop failure.
Warmer sea surface temperatures are likely to trigger more frequent and
more intense mass coral bleaching, which is when reefs turn pale, the study
said.
No Impact- Biodiversity
Every previous mass extinction has resulted in more
adapted and diverse species.
Dodds 07 (Donald J, president of North Pacific Research, The Myth of
Biodiversity, 2007,
northpacificresearch.com/downloads/The_myth_of_biodiversity.doc)//
Notice next that at least ten times biodiversity fell rapidly; none of these
extreme reductions in biodiversity were caused by humans. Around 250
million years ago the number of genera was reduce 85 percent from
about 1200 to around 200, by any definition a significant reduction in
biodiversity. Now notice that after this extinction a steep and rapid rise
of biodiversity. In fact, if you look closely at the curve, you will find that
every mass-extinction was followed by a massive increase in
biodiversity. Why was that? Do you suppose it had anything to do with the
number environmental niches available for exploitation? If you do, you are
right. Extinctions are necessary for creation. Each time a mass
extinction occurs the world is filled with new and better-adapted
species. That is the way evolution works, its called survival of the fittest.
Those species that could not adapted to the changing world
conditions simply disappeared and better species evolved. How
efficient is that? Those that could adapt to change continued to
thrive. For example, the cockroach and the shark have been around well
over 300 million years. There is a pair to draw to, two successful species that
any creator would be proud to produce. To date these creatures have
successful survived six extinctions, without the aid of humans or the EPA.
Part of evolution is the loss of some species- trying to

prevent it is just harmful human meddling.
Biodiversity, 2007,
Geologic history has repeatedly shown that species that become
overspecialized are ripe for extinction. A classic example of
overspecialization is the Kola bears, which can only eat the leaves from a
single eucalyptus tree. But because they are soft and furry, look like a
teddy bear and have big brown eyes, humans are artificially keeping
them alive. Humans do not have the stomach or the brain for
controlling evolution. Evolution is a simple process or it wouldnt
function. Evolution works because it follows the simple law: what
worksworks, what doesnt workgoes away. There is no legislation,
no regulations, no arbitration, no lawyers, scientists or politicians. Mother
Nature has no preference, no prejudices, no emotions and no ulterior
motives. Humans have all of those traits. Humans are working against
nature when they try to prevent extinctions and freeze biodiversity.
Examine the curve in figure one, at no time since the origin of life
has biodiversity been constant. If this principal has worked for 550 million
years on this planet, and science is supposed to find truth in nature, by what
twisted reasoning can fixing biodiversity be considered science? Let alone
good for the environment. Environmentalists are now killing species
that they arbitrarily term invasive, which are in reality simply better
adapted to the current environment. Consider the Barred Owl, a superior
species is being killed in the name of biodiversity because the Barred Owl is
trying to replace a less environmentally adapted species the Spotted Owl.
This is more harmful to the ecosystem because it impedes the
normal flow of evolution based on the idea that biodiversity must
remain constant.
Geologic history proves that a cycle of biodiversity and

extinction is natural and not threatening.
Biodiversity, 2007,
What is suggested by geologic history is that the world has more
biodiversity than it ever had and that it maybe overdue for another
major extinction. Unfortunately, today many scientists have too
narrow a view. They are highly specialized. They have no time for geologic
history. This appears to be a problem of inadequate education not
ignorance. What is abundantly clear is that artificially enforcing rigid
biodiversity works against the laws of nature, and will cause
irreparable damage to the evolution of life on this planet and maybe
beyond. The world and the human species may be better served if
we stop trying to prevent change, and begin trying to understand
change and positioning the human species to that it survives the
inevitable change of evolution. If history is to be believed, the planet
has 3 times more biodiversity than it had 65 million years ago.
Trying to sustain that level is futile and may be dangerous. The next
major extinction, change in biodiversity, is as inevitable as climate change.
We cannot stop either from occurring, but we can position the human species
to survive those changes.
Tourism Good/Bad
Tourism Bad
Wont liberalize
Tourism money strengthens the government, not private
businesses and citizens.
Tamayo 4-29 (Juan O.- editor with the Miami Herald, focusing on Latin
America, especially Cuba, previously Mexico/Central America news chief at

United Press International, former Research Associate with the U of Miami
Cuban Institute, April 29 2013, Ladies in White leader wants U.S. to maintain
hard-line on Cuba, Miami Herald,
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/04/29/3371054/ladies-in-white-leaderwants-us.html)//
The leader of Cubas dissident Ladies in White, Berta Soler, Monday
called for maintaining the U.S. trade embargo and limiting travel to
the island until the Ral Castro government respects human rights.
Castros economic and migration reforms are merely cosmetic,
Soler added during a lengthy visit with reporters and editors from The Miami
Herald and El Nuevo Herald. Soler acknowledged that her hard-line views
differ from those of other government critics such as blogger Yoani Snchez,
who opposes the embargo and favors more U.S. travel. But all dissidents
agree that the Castro system must end, she added. Wearing the traditional
white clothes that the Ladies in White use during their protests, the 49-yearold microbiology lab technician called for harsh treatment of the Castro
regime, including maintaining the half-century old U.S. embargo to take
away the Cuban governments oxygen. While Cuban-American visitors
deliver some cash and other benefits to their relatives on the island,
Soler argued that other U.S. visitors spend most of their money on
state-owned hotels and tourist facilities. The embargo prohibits tourist
travel to Cuba, but U.S. citizens are allowed to make people-to-people trips,
which are supposed to increase the opportunity to interact with everyday
Cubans. That money arrives clean at the Cuban government, she
said, adding that for island officials international tourism is the industry
that lays the golden eggs. Soler also dismissed Castros economic
reforms as nothing more than cosmetic. She called the changes in the
immigration system credited with allowing her and half a dozen other
dissidents to travel abroad for the first time in years the same dog with a
different collar. Although the government removed the requirement for the
much hated exit permit in January, she added, authorities can still deny
passport applications or put no travel flags on the official records of any
Cuban.
The tourism industry is monopolized by the governmentwill not help reform.

Gomez 6-21 (Henry- writer for Babalu, a website critical of the Castro
regime in Cuba, June 21, 2013, Dont End the Cuban Embargo, PJ Media,
http://pjmedia.com/blog/dont-end-the-cuban-embargo/?singlepage=true)//
Michael Edghill proposes a novel but convoluted and factually challenged
argument to end the United States embargo on Cubas Castro regime. Edghill
begins his argument by highlighting the oft-repeated advice that the

Republican Party needs to do a better job of appealing to Hispanics. I agree
completely with this and have written extensively that the natural home for
Hispanics is the GOP because of their family values, social conservatism, and
entrepreneurialism. But then Mr. Edghill goes off the rails to use this as a
justification for changing U.S. policy toward Cuba. First he attacks the
effectiveness of the embargo by stating the obvious that it has not caused
political change in Cuba. But he does not offer any evidence that its absence
would cause political change. In fact, Edghill admits that tourists and
business interests from Europe and the rest of the Americas have
sustained the Cuban economy. Its important to keep in mind the fact
that the Cuban economy is completely dominated by the state; in
particular, the tourist sector is controlled by the Cuban Armed
Forces, of which Raul Castro has been the head since the revolution
that brought Fidel Castro to power. So how, exactly, would getting
rid of the embargo hurt the existing status quo? The obvious answer is
that it wouldnt. In fact, it would provide a financial boon to Cubas
oppressors.
Jamaica tradeoff
Lifting the embargo hurts Jamaicas tourism industry- 10%
of their GDP
Luton 08 (Daraine- staff reporter for the Jamaican Gleaner, Novemeer 2
2008, Jamaica may suffer If US lifts Cuban embargo, the Jamaica Gleaner,
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20081102/lead/lead1.html)//
JAMAICA'S economy could suffer if the next United States president
decides to lift the trade embargo on communist Cuba. "We have to be
careful what we wish for," says John Rapley, president of the
Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), at the University of the West
Indies, Mona. Rapley was a guest at The Gleaner Editors' Forum on the US
elections last week. With just two days to go before the US votes for a
president to replace George W. Bush, there are speculations as to whether
the 40-year trade embargo imposed on Cuba will be lifted. Vote to lift
embargo On Wednesday, the United Nations General Assembly voted to lift
the American trade embargo on Cuba. The vote in the 192-member world
body was 185 to three, with two abstentions. The US, Israel and Palau voted
no, while Micronesia and the Marshall Islands abstained. The approval of the
resolution was the 17th straight year that the General Assembly called for the
embargo against Cuba to be repealed "as soon as possible". Cuban Foreign
Minister Felipe Prez Roque later told the Associated Press in an interview
that "we expect that the new president will change the policy towards Cuba".
Prime Minister Bruce Golding, whose Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was
ideologically opposed to relations with Cuba, has already called for the US to
lift the embargo. "My hope is that within a short time, we can see an end to
the isolation of Cuba," the prime minister said in May. But during last week's
Editors' Forum, Rapley said a softening of US relations with Cuba could
hurt Jamaica. "Jamaica is one of the countries that is going to suffer
the most in terms of loss, particularly tourism traffic," Rapley said,
pointing to a recent assessment done by CaPRI on a liberalised Cuba.
Tourism contribution In Jamaica, tourism contributes 10 per cent to
GDP - a measure of the country's economic performance - and nine per
cent to employment, employing 80,000 persons directly and 180,000
persons indirectly.
Caribbean tradeoff
Lifting the embargo causes lower investment, lower
market share, and increase in marketing cost in USdependent countries (Jamaica, the Bahamas, Cayman
Islands, the Turks and Caicos Islands)
Luton 08 (Daraine- staff reporter for the Jamaican Gleaner, Novemeer 2
2008, Jamaica may suffer If US lifts Cuban embargo, the Jamaica Gleaner,
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20081102/lead/lead1.html)//
According to Rafael Romeo of the International Monetary Fund, who
presented at the CaPRI conference, if the US embargo on Cuba is
removed, the communist island would see an increase of between
two and 11 per cent in stopover visitor arrivals. "If this forecast is
correct, then there will be serious implications for other Caribbean
destinations that are heavily dependent on the US markets. They
may not only lose market share, but also valuable tourist dollars,
both in terms of foreign direct investments and visitor spending,"
CaPRI concluded. "Further, these countries will have to increase their
marketing budget to break down value chains and attract customers.
Countries most likely to be affected would be The Bahamas, The
Cayman Islands, The Turks and Caicos Islands and Jamaica," CaPRI
added. Last week, Rapley concluded that the lifting of the embargo on
Cuba "sounds great, but I think we might regret that we spend this
time talking about it".
Internal Unrest
American tourist boom causes unrest in Cuba and clashes
over migration to Havana.
Chase 09 (Michelle-, teaches Latin American history at Bloomfield College,
writing a book on women and gender in the Cuban Revolution, April 28 2009,
The Bigger Picture of the Cuban Embargo and Travel Ban, the North
American Congress on Latin America, https://nacla.org/news/bigger-picturecuban-embargo-and-travel-ban)//
The capitals youth population is already particularly frustrated with
the inaccessibility of certain consumer goods and the difficulties of
receiving permission to travel abroad. An avalanche of iPod-toting
U.S. spring-breakers will only exacerbate this frustration. A U.S.induced tourist boom also stands to increase the steady stream of
migration from places like the impoverished easternmost province of
Oriente toward Havana. These migrants already face difficulty
legalizing their residency in Havana and are often forcibly deported
back to their place of origin. In either case, tensions with their Havana
neighbors and police could grow.
Laundry list
American tourism to Cuba would strengthen the military
regime, and harm the economies of the other Caribbean
islands.
Suchlicki 4-12 (Jaime- previously director of the U of Miamis Research
Institute for Cuban Studies, Latin American Editor for Transaction Publishers,
April 12 2013, What if the U.S. Ended the Cuba Travel Ban and the
Embargo?, Democracy, Development and Institutions blog, sponsored by the
Development Research Center,
http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/12/what-if-the-u-s-ended-the-cubatravel-ban-and-the-embargo/)//
Ending the embargo and lifting the ban for U.S. tourists to travel to
Cuba would be a major concession totally out of proportion to recent
changes in the island. If the U.S. were to lift the travel ban without
major reforms in Cuba, there would be significant implications:
Money from American tourists would flow into businesses owned by
the Castro government thus strengthening state enterprises. The
tourist industry is controlled by the military and General Raul Castro,
Fidels brother. American tourists will have limited contact with
Cubans. Most Cuban resorts are built in isolated areas, are off limits to the
average Cuban, and are controlled by Cubas efficient security apparatus.
Most Americans dont speak Spanish, have but limited contact with ordinary
Cubans, and are not interested in visiting the island to subvert its
regime. Law 88 enacted in 1999 prohibits Cubans from receiving
publications from tourists. Penalties include jail terms. While providing the
Castro government with much needed dollars, the economic impact
of tourism on the Cuban population would be limited. Dollars will
trickle down to the Cuban poor in only small quantities, while state
and foreign enterprises will benefit most. Tourist dollars would be
spent on products, i.e., rum, tobacco, etc., produced by state enterprises, and
tourists would stay in hotels owned partially or wholly by the Cuban
government. The principal airline shuffling tourists around the island, Gaviota,
is owned and operated by the Cuban military. Over the past decades
hundred of thousands of Canadian, European and Latin American
tourists have visited the island. Cuba is not more democratic today.
If anything, Cuba is more totalitarian, with the state and its control
apparatus having been strengthened as a result of the influx of
tourist dollars. A large influx of American tourists into Cuba would
have a dislocating effect on the economies of smaller Caribbean
islands such as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas,
Puerto Rico, and even Florida, highly dependent on tourism for their
well-being. Careful planning must take place, lest we create significant
hardships and social problems in these countries.
AT Tourism Bad
AT Jamaica Tradeoff
Jamaica wont be hurt by end to travel ban- industry
leaders confident.
Luton 09- (Daraine- staff reporter for The Jamaica Gleaner, Tourist Heads
not Worried about Cuba, The Jamaican Gleaner, April 15 2009,

http://www.jtbonline.org/resources/Media%20Clippings/Tourist%20heads
%20not%20worried%20about%20Cuba.pdf)//
AT LEAST one major stakeholder group in the tourism sector has
shrugged off speculation that the lifting of a ban on citizens of the
United States travelling to Cuba would negatively impact the local
industry. Wayne Cummings, president of the Jamaica Hotel and
Tourist Association (JHTA), told The Gleaner yesterday that the
lifting of the travel ban should not affect Jamaica at this time. He
also said that should the 47-yearold US-imposed trade embargo against Cuba
be lifted, there was nothing to suggest that this country would be
at a major disadvantage. US President Barack Obama on Monday lifted
some restriction on travel to the Communist island. BRACING FOR A FLOOD
The Associated Press reported yesterday that some travel agents were
bracing for a flood of American visitors into Cuba. However, Cummings
said the speculation that tourists might flood to Cuba and hurt the
local market might be extreme. They are going to have to do a lot
of homework. They have a way to go before they develop their
capacities in Cuba, whereas we are far more mature in terms of
infrastructure and room inventory, among other things.
No Link
No link- no flood of American tourists
CAPA Centre for Aviation 11- (provider of aviation market
intelligence, analysis, and data services, Cuba may not get traffic flood as
gateways opened, CAPA Centre for Aviation, March 10 th 2011,
http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/cuba-may-not-see-huge-traffic-flood47456)//
While the curiosity may be high as new charter services are now allowed
between eight US airports and Cuba, it is unlikely that the liberalisation
of 50-year-old travel restrictions will release a flood of traffic,
according to Boyd Group International President Mike Boyd, whose
organisation just issued a study to that effect. The report also suggested that
there is not a lot of appetite for tourist/beach traffic potential and, in
fact, will be much less than expected. Gateways include Baltimore,
Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, New Orleans, Chicago O'Hare, Pittsburgh, Tampa
and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Using statistics prior to the reimposition of travel
restrictions by President George Bush in 2004, Mr Boyd indicated that Miami
was, by far, the largest gateway to the island with 95.5% of the charter traffic
compared with 4.2% over Kennedy and 0.3% from Los Angeles. Service is
limited to charter flights, which can already operate between the two
countries. Travel is limited to religious, academic, journalistic or cultural
reasons under a more liberal Obama policy which restored new rules imposed
during the Clinton Administration. The new 'VFR' - Visiting Family and
Relatives - rules will, without question, tend to increase the demand for this
specific traffic segment, said Mr Boyd. But there is a misconception that
just ending the US embargo will open a floodgate of tourist and business
travel between the USA and Cuba. Our analyses do not support such a
contention. Under any range of circumstances, there would not be
anywhere near a flood of new air travel demand to Cuba in the
near-term. Actually, there isn't even any external gate at the present time
keeping trade or tourism out of Cuba. What most Americans do not
realise is that Cuba can and does trade freely with the rest of the
world, and currently has air service access to the globe. Opening up
the ability for selling US goods to Cuba does not necessarily mean the Cuban
government wants it. Or, can afford it.
Tourism mixed results

Long-term Caribbean tourism will increase, non-americans
will go elsewhere, no empirical tests show that other
countries prepare to try to keep non-american tourists- it
will be mixed.

The results presented here point toward two major findings. First, a future
liberalization of Cuba-U.S. bilateral tourism would increase overall
arrivals to the Caribbean. This surge would likely drive tourism in
Cuba to full capacity, although much is unknown about shortrun supply
constraints. As U.S. visitors overwhelm capacity, OECD visitors
currently vacationing in Cuba would have to be redirected toward
neighboring countries. Hence, while short-run constraints would be
binding in Cuba, the region would enjoy a period of sustained
demand. In the wake of this change, some countries would potentially
stand to lose U.S. tourists but would gain new non-U.S. tourists, as
trade redistributes in line with fundamentals. The results suggest that
total Caribbean arrivals would increase by approximately 211
percent; hence, as costs obey fundamentals in lieu of trade barriers,
strong tourism growth would await some Caribbean destinations
while others would potentially face long-term declines. The second
major finding regards preparation for a possible future opening of Cuba-U.S.
tourism. An industry-wide shock such as this occurs once in one hundred
years. While the probability, timing or pace of Cuba-U.S. tourism
liberalization is unknown, previous empirical tests conducted during periods
of potential liberalization suggest that Cuba moves to retain non-U.S. visitors
even while preparing to receive increased U.S. arrivals. There is no
empirical evidence that neighboring tourist destinations
particularly those that are heavily dependent on U.S. tourist
arrivalshedged potential losses ahead of this change.8
Lifting the embargo would increase Carbbean tourism

arrivals 10%, and increase American tourists in Cuba,
displacing European tourists.

Imposing trade barriers raises costs and distorts the flow of
commerce. Using tourist-mile as a cost proxy for current tourism
restrictions, the cost to U.S. consumers of traveling to Cuba is
estimated to be at least 7,000 nautical miles. This cost increase has
permitted distant tourist destinations to accommodate artificially

high numbers of U.S. arrivals for decades, when in the absence of
this restriction, less costly alternative destinations would be
available. The results presented suggest an increase of Caribbean
tourism arrivals of roughly 10 percent, and a shift toward U.S.
tourism. U.S. consumers would experience an increase in purchasing power
as the dead weight loss of the current policy were to be eliminated. For
Caribbean competitors, a hypothetical opening of Cuba to U.S.
tourists would imply hedging toward alternative tourist sources, as
U.S. visitor losses would occur on impact. The results suggest that
binding capacity constraints in Cuba would likely displace current
tourists as new U.S. arrivals with immensely lower travel costs would
compete for limited hotel rooms. Capturing this short-term
dislocation is important for offsetting potential U.S. tourist losses.
The results also suggest that permanent declines in travel costs for
U.S. tourists alongside their importance in this market would
increase their long-term presence in the region. As U.S. tourists would
be able to spend less on getting to their destination, they would be able to
outbid other visitors for greater tourism quality and quantities.
Chinese Influence Good DA
1NC Shell
A. Uniqueness -- China dominates Latin America now
comparatively more influential than the US.
Menendez 5-10. [Fernando, economist and a Principal at Cordoba Group International, a
strategic consulting firm providing political and economic analysis "The East is rising, in Latin America" The
Commentator -- www.thecommentator.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america]
concerns about a rising China are broached they are usually focused
around that nations increasing economic, financial and military power in Asia.
Another region undergoing significant political and economic development,
once considered the backyards of the United States, is less often cited. Latin
America, however, is fast becoming a growing nub on Chinas radar as a global
power. U.S. preoccupation with the Middle East has led arguably to a
decline in American power in Latin America and elsewhere. Economically, as
Americas influence wanes in the southern hemisphere Chinas has
When
grown . The shift can be seen in levels of loans, foreign direct

investment and trade.
B. Link - Chinese influence in the western hemisphere is

zero-sum. US engagement is seen as a challenge to
Chinas power
Kreps and Flores-Macias 13. [Sarah, Assistant Professor of Government at Cornell
University, Gustavo, Assistant Professor of Government at Cornell University, "No Strings Attached?
Evaluating China's Trade Relations Abroad" The Diplomat -- May 17 -- thediplomat.com/china-power/nostrings-attached-evaluating-chinas-trade-relations-abroad/]
The champion of the developing world has become a common reference to describe China over the last
China is both a developing country itself but also one of the

largest world economies, putting it in a unique position to represent
the interests of its developing world brethren. As the Asian country grows in
economic strength, its ability to give voice to developing world issues
grows commensurately, especially in international forums. At least this is
decade.
the common refrain among Chinese leaders. In practice, this narrative mischaracterizes the relationship
between Chinas economic rise and international voice opportunities for developing countries. A closer
examination of trade relationships and foreign policy consequences shows, not that Beijing has come to
endorse the interests of its partners, but that its trade partners converge with Beijing. In particular, we
find that the more countries in Africa and Latin America trade with China, the more likely they are to align
with the Asian country on one of its main foreign policy issues: non-intervention with respect to human
rights. Every year, the United Nations General Assembly holds country-specific resolutions on human
rights, and invariably Beijing votes against condemning violations, invoking the principle of self
African and Latin American countries that have

growing trade ties with China have begun to abstain or vote against
resolutions they would have typically supported. This change in behavior can be
determination. Increasingly,
quite remarkable for countries with a long-standing tradition of promoting human rights, such as Costa
Rica. That developing countries would be inclined to side with China rather than the other way around is
surprising in some ways. China has famously touted its no strings attached approach on commercial
relations. This way of doing business comes in stark contrast to the conditions imposed by Western
countries, the International Monetary Fund, or the World Bank. When dealing with them, developing
countries have to worry about a number of conditions, including democracy, human rights, and labor
provisions in trade agreements, governance oversight in foreign aid, and economic stringency in loans.
The obvious benefit would be that Chinas engagement is not only risk free, but also devoid of any colonial
China
may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partners into
impetus. Mutual economic benefit would be the main driver of the relationship. To be sure,
alignment on foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional, however, this

gravitational effect has a sound economic basis. Developing countries in Africa and Latin America are
comparatively much more dependent on China than China is on these countries. In a ten year period, for
example, Sudans trade with China rose from 1 to 10% of its Gross Domestic Product. That pattern is even
starker in a country like Angola, for which trade with China represented 25% of its GDP in 2006. While
China certainly needs access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries are far less
important to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry in needs gives China a bargaining
advantage that translates into foreign policy outcomes even if not by explicit design. Whether by design
or not, the convergence with Chinas foreign policy goals is important on
at least two levels. First, developing countries in Africa and Latin America may be lulled by the prospect of
partnering with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political agenda, as did the United
States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an illusion. Whether this reaches the
level of new colonialism as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but
A second
set of implications deals with the United States . During the same period in which
Chinas trade with Africa and Latin America and foreign policy convergence have increased , the
United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA
voting behavior. This suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in
the economic asymmetries that undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely.
which Chinas growing trade relations make it easier to attract

allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing . Taken
together, these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the
United States in the developing world. Since the September 2001 attacks,
Washington has dealt with Africa and Latin America through benign neglect and shifted its attention
elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercial relations, the US ought to
reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as an important means of projecting influence abroad.
C. Impact - Chinese influence key to secure Latin American

resources key to growth.
Lettieri 5. [Michael, research associate, "Bush goes to Beijing, China goes to Latin America" Council
on Hemispheric Affairs -- November 14 -- www.coha.org/bush-goes-to-beijing-china-goes-to-latin-america/]
Latin Americas Strategic Importance to China As Chinas economy

has boomed, racking up continuous growth rates of 9%, and its population has become increasingly
urbanized, the countrys need for raw materials has skyrocketed . The need
was exacerbated by the decision to become a fully motorized consumer economy, meaning that in short
order China would require in the order of twice of its present level of consumption of petroleum. It is
relevant to note that today China is the third largest manufacturer of automobiles in the world. Therefore,
it is not surprising that according to the Washington Post, Beijing has estimated that by 2020 the country
would need 600 million tons of crude oil annually. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that in a report in
Februarys issue of Poder magazine, China
has displaced the United States as the

worlds largest consumer of most industrial raw materials , including
copper, aluminum, nickel, platinum, and iron ore. An Embarrassment of Riches Latin America
offers in abundance many of those key resources now coveted by
China, and its history and experience of serving as a raw-goodsexporting economic enclave for the industrialized metropolis be it Spain, the U.K. or the
U.S., has been at different stages of its history further enhances the regions appeal
to Beijing. In its eagerness to secure access to the Latin American
resources it so prizes, the PRC has skillfully wielded its economic
soft power to convince regional governments to amicably open up
their countries to Chinese penetrations. Not that much persuasion was necessary,
considering the desire of countries like Brazil to find an outside foreign partner capable of
counterbalancing the U.S.
Chinese growth prevents global economic collapse, war

over Taiwan and CCP collapse
Lewis 8. [Dan, Research Director Economic Research Council, The Nightmare of a Chinese
Economic Collapse, World Finance, 5/13,
http://www.worldfinance.com/news/home/finalbell/article117.html]
In 2001, Gordon Chang authored a global bestseller "The Coming Collapse of China." To suggest that the worlds largest nation of 1.3 billion people is on the brink of
collapse is understandably for many, a deeply unnerving theme. And many seasoned China Hands rejected Changs thesis outright. In a very real sense, they were of course
Chinas expansion has continued over the last six years without a hitch.
right.
After notching up a
staggering 10.7 percent growth last year, it is now the 4th largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $2.68trn. Yet there are two Chinas that concern us here; the
800 million who live in the cities, coastal and southern regions and the 500 million who live in the countryside and are mainly engaged in agriculture. The latter which we
in the West hear very little about are still very poor and much less happy. Their poverty and misery do not necessarily spell an impending cataclysm after all, that is how
they have always have been. But it does illustrate the inequity of Chinese monetary policy. For many years, the Chinese yen has been held at an artificially low value to boost
manufacturing exports. This has clearly worked for one side of the economy, but not for the purchasing power of consumers and the rural poor, some of who are getting even
Meanwhile, rural unrest in

China is on the rise fuelled not only by an accelerating income gap with the coastal
cities, but by an oft-reported appropriation of their land for little or no compensation by
the state. According to Professor David B. Smith, one of the Citys most accurate and respected economists in recent years, potentially far more serious though is the
poorer. The central reason for this has been the inability of Chinese monetary policy to adequately support both Chinas.
impact that Chinese monetary policy could have on many Western nations such as the UK. Quite simply, Chinas undervalued currency has enabled Western governments to
maintain artificially strong currencies, reduce inflation and keep interest rates lower than they might otherwise be. We should therefore be very worried about how vulnerable
Western economic growth is to an upward revaluation of the Chinese yuan. Should that revaluation happen to appease Chinas rural poor, at a stroke, the dollar, sterling and
the euro would quickly depreciate, rates in those currencies would have to rise substantially and the yield on government bonds would follow suit. This would add greatly to
the debt servicing cost of budget deficits in the USA, the UK and much of euro land. A reduction in demand for imported Chinese goods would quickly entail a decline in
It has been calculated that to keep Chinas society stable ie to

manage the transition from a rural to an urban society without devastating
unemployment - the minimum growth rate is 7.2 percent. Anything less than that and
unemployment will rise and the massive shift in population from the country to the cities
becomes unsustainable. This is when real discontent with communist party rule becomes
vocal and hard to ignore. It doesnt end there. That will at best bring a global recession.
The crucial point is that communist authoritarian states have at least had some success
in keeping a lid on ethnic tensions so far. But when multi-ethnic communist countries
fall apart from economic stress and the implosion of central power, history suggests that
they dont become successful democracies overnight. Far from it. Theres a very real
chance that China might go the way of Yugoloslavia or the Soviet Union chaos, civil
unrest and internecine war. In the very worst case scenario, a Chinese government might
seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with Taiwan whom America is
pledged to defend.
Chinas economic growth rate. That is alarming.
Uniqueness
US investment low
Obama doesnt care about Latin America.
Cerna 11. [Michael, staff @ CRC, "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US
and Chinese presence in the region" China Research Center -- Vol 10 No 1 -- www.chinacenter.net/chinasgrowing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-s-and-chinese-presence-in-the-region/]
In March 2011, U.S. President Barack Obama met with leaders and officials in
Brazil, Chile and El Salvador. Mr. Obama made this visit amid growing Chinese power in the region.
The trip marked the first time President Obama had visited Latin
America since becoming President. By comparison, at this point in Hu Jintaos
presidency, the Chinese president already had visited four countries, including Brazil, where he signed 39
bilateral agreements and announced $100 billion in investments. While Mr. Obama was well-received
during his trip,
the most common response in those countries was that

the trip was symbolic but not very substantive. Obamas visit did not
reflect any shift in policy. Many of the major statements these countries hoped for (such as a
call for Brazils permanent place on the U.N. Security Council), in fact, were not made. Mr. Obama admitted
on his trip: There have been times when the United States took this region for granted, according to the
Latin American Herald Tribune. Those times are not yet in the distant past and there are fears this
administration is making mistakes similar to ones in the past. After promising during his 2000 election
campaign to correct Washingtons indifference to Latin America, George W. Bush was accused of turning
The
President showed no concern for a growing Chinese influence in the
hemisphere, and China put both feet inside before anyone in
Washington seemed to realize the door was open. This was a move China had
his back on the region in favor of more pressing issues in the wake of the September 11 attacks.
planned during the administration of George H.W. Bush.
Chinese influence is stronger in Latin America than the US

the US is focused on the war against terrorism
Ellis 2006 (R. Evan Ellis is an Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. with
an emphasis on Latin American security issues, wargaming, and military and
business simulation) (March 3rd 2006 The New Chinese Engagement With
Latin America: Understanding Its Dynamics and the Implications for the
Regionhttp://www6.miami.edu/hemisphericpolicy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306.pdf)
In understanding Chinas interest in Latin America, it is also important to take
into account the impact of the new generation of Chinese leadership19 and
the political seachange that has taken place in Latin America. On the Chinese
side, Hu Jintao, and to a lesser extent, his predecessor Jiang Zemin which
came of age in a China much stronger and stable in both political and
economic termsa China with an established and expanding role in the
global community, and no longer struggling to ideologically define itself vis-vis the Communism of its former rival, the Soviet Union.20 Hu Jintao and
his leadership team arguably feel less constrained by the boundaries which
prevailed during the cold war period, such as the Monroe Doctrine and the
presumption of U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. The
confidence of the new generation of Chinese leadership is
complimented by the political sea change that took place in Latin
America following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
Following 9-11, US attention and resources turned inward to focus
on homeland security, and also toward the Middle East, where
Afghanistan and Iraq became the focal point abroad of the Global
War on Terror. The perception by Latin American leaders that the
region was no longer a US priority was reinforced by their
perception that their positions were not taken into consideration on
a wide range of international issues from the Iraq war to
immigration policy.21 Meanwhile, within Latin America itself, a series of
elections brought left-of-center governments to power, from pragmatic
socialists such as Ricardo Lagos in Chile, Ignacio Lula de la Silva in Brazil
and Tabar Vasquez in Uruguay--to radical populists, such as Hugo Chvez in
Venezuela, and most recently, Evo Morales in Bolivia. The new Latin
American leadership was less willing to accept the neo-liberal
economic orthodoxy represented by the Washington Consensus,
and more disposed to explore new types of relationships that could
give their nations alternatives to the traditional US domination of
the regional economy. For these leaders, regional trade blocks
such as MERCOSUR, and the building of relationships with nontraditional economic partners such as China, India, and the
European Union, represented new sources of leverage in the
increasingly globalized economy. In short, a new generation of
Chinese leaders with acute resource needs, and willing to take
risks, encountered a new Latin American leadership, looking for
new opportunities and economic partners.
Washington has VERY low influence in Latin America now

China can fill in the gap
Hsiang 9. [Dr. Antonio, Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology, Taiwan, "China rising
in Latin America: More opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging
Markets -- Vol 1 Issue 1 -- November -- digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=1003&context=jekem]
Because many Latin American countries no longer look to

Washington leadership, the socalled Washington Consensus has lost
traction.28 As a global rising power, China offers an alternative
model for Latin Americas development. Even though China has been
hurt by the 2008 financial crisis, its economic and financial
powers have been strengthened relative to those of the West.
Chinas global influence will thus increase, and Beijing will be able
to undertake political and economic initiatives to increase it
further.29 In fact, Washington seemed to adopt a Chinese-style
solution to its escalating financial problems: greater state
intervention to restrict the movement of capital.30 Thus, Beijings
emergence as a global economic power is seen throughout Latin America as
offering an alternative from the Washington Consensus model for economic
development. The Beijing Consensus is the brainchild of Joshua Cooper
Ramo, a former senior editor and foreign editor of Time magazine and later
a partner at Kissinger Associates, the consulting firm of former Secretary of
State Henry Kissinger. According to Ramo, the Beijing Consensus has
three features. The first is a commitment to innovation and constant
experimentation in reforms. The second, a rejection of per capita
GDP as the only measure of progress, as sustainability and
equality also count. And the third, a commitment to
selfdetermination. Less developed countries should therefore ensure

their own financial integrity and keep great powers in check.31 The
Beijing Consensus has evolved to describe a plethora of alternative plans for
economic development in the underdeveloped world. Ramo argues that
China and India, who most pointedly ignored the World Bank and the IMFchampioned Washington Consensus, now have records that speak for
themselves.32 Consequently, the so-called the Beijing Consensus
has been attracting attention in Latin America because of Chinas
distinctive development model, . . . [which] posits far more state
intervention in the economy and a greater concern with political
stability and strong government to guide the development
process.33 Chinese academics argue that there are three signs that likely
predict a convergence between China and Latin America. First, the
background conditions are compatible because there are no
fundamental conflicts of interest or historical animosities between
China and Latin America. Second, the two regions have largely
complementary economies. Third, China and Latin America both
value diversification in international economic and political
relations. For instance, both sides openly oppose hegemonism,
imperialism, and power monopolies by a few developed countries.34
Nevertheless, governmental ideological affinity is only of limited concern in
relations between China and Latin America. For example, after establishing
diplomatic relations with Chiles Allende government, China did not see any
problems with maintaining relations with the subsequent Pinochet regime.
The US remains the dominant in Latin America, but by a

quickly diminishing margin
Cerna 11 (International Policy Management at Kennesaw State University,
Kennesaw, GA, Chinas Growing presence in Latin America and Implications
for US and Chinese Presence in the Region,
http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-americaimplications-for-u-s-and-chinese-presence-in-the-region/
A major talking point in the U.S. media today is the alleged

weakening of American influence in the world. The common
perception is that power is shifting to East Asia, and particularly
to China, with ramifications globally and especially close to home
in Latin America. Chinas economic emergence over the last
decade has sent shockwaves through the region , causing
economic policy shifts and realignment of markets toward the
reawakened dragon. While the U.S. has a strong history of
moving to block outside political influence in Latin America, its
attention of late has been focused on Iraq and Afghanistan, and
the region has gradually fallen lower and lower on Americas list
of priorities. China has been all too willing to fill any void.
However, the numbers show that, despite the rapid growth of the
Chinese economy, the U.S. remains the central figure in economic

relations with Latin America by an enormous margin. Yet, there
are trends that should at least concern the United States . Exactly
how worried should the U.S. be about Chinas growing influence
in Latin America? Is China on its way to overtaking the U.S. as the
regions primary trade partner? Are Chinas motivations strictly
economic or is there an underlying political driver behind Chinas
actions that should warrant concern from the U.S.? Perhaps most
important, is trade with Latin America a zero-sum game, or is it
possible for both China and the United States to benefit from
Latin Americas growth?
Chinese investment high

Chinese investments have high influence in Latin America
Gallagher 5/30/13 (Kevin Gallagher is professor of international relations
at Boston University where he co-directs the Global Economic Governance
Initiative) (Latin America playing a risky game by welcoming in the Chinese
dragon http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/povertymatters/2013/may/30/latin-america-risky-chinese-dragon)
The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, travels to the US and Latin America this
week, for the first time since he took office in March. What a difference a
decade makes. Ten years ago, there would hardly have been any fanfare
about a Chinese visit to the region. Now, for Brazil, Chile and others, China is
the most important trade and investment partner. China-Latin America
trade surpassed $250bn (165bn) last year. Although China's impact in
Africa receives the most attention, China trades just as much in Latin
America as in Africa, and has more investments in the region. Chinese
finance in Latin America chiefly from the China Development Bank and
the Export-Import Bank of China is staggeringly large and growing. In a
recently updated report, colleagues and I estimate that, since 2005, China
has provided loan commitments of more than $86bn to Latin
American countries. That is more than the World Bank or the InterAmerican Development Bank have provided to the region during the
same period . China's presence is a great opportunity for Latin
America , but it brings new risks. If the region can seize the new
opportunities that come with Chinese finance, countries could come
closer to their development goals, and pose a real challenge to the
way western-backed development banks do business. However, if Latin
American nations don't channel this new trade and investment toward longterm growth and sustainability, the risks may take away many of the
rewards. First, the positive side. Chinese trade and investment is partly
a blessing for Latin America because it diversifies the sources of
finance finance that for too long has relied on the west. The US and
European economies have been anaemic since 2008, and trade with
China has tugged Latin American growth rates to impressive levels.
Every 1% increase in Chinese growth is correlated with a 1.2% increase in
Latin American growth. Chinese finance is more in tune with what Latin
American nations want, rather than with what western development experts
say they "need". Whereas the US and international financial institutions (IFIs)
such as the World Bank and IMF tend to finance in line with the latest
development fads such as trade liberalisation and micro-anti-poverty
programmes, Chinese loans tend to go into
China is heavily investing in Latin America now.

Wang 5-6. [Xiaoxia, economic observer, "In America's Backyard: China's rising influence in Latin
America" World Crunch -- www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-risinginfluence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/]
IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD :
CHINA'S RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA
China is busy in America's backyard.
Over
the past five years, Chinese
businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a

number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady
supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans. At this year's Boao Forum for
Asia, for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created that included the participation of several
Since 2011, China has overtaken the

Netherlands to become Latin Americas second biggest investor behind
the United States. China has signed a series of large cooperation
agreements with Latin American countries in such fields as finance,
resources and energy. According to the latest statistics of the General
Administration of Customs of China, Sino-Latin American trade grew in 2012 to a
total of $261.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.18%.
heads of state from the region.
Links
Generic
An increase in US engagement in Latin America
challenges Chinas influence in the region
Dumbaugh et al 5. [Kerry, specialist in Asian Affairs, Mark Sullivan, Specialist in Latin
American affairs, "China's growing interest in Latin America" CRS Report for Congress -- April 20 -www.au.af.mil/AU/AWC/AWCGATE/crs/rs22119.pdf]
On April 6, 2005, the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee of the House International Relations Committee
held hearings on Chinas growing Latin American involvement. Witnesses reflected the range of debate on
observers believe increased

Chinese interest and economic linkages with Latin America
constitute a significant future threat to U.S. influence and interests
in Latin America. They maintain that China is using Latin America to
the implications of Chinas regional contacts.12 Some
challenge United States supremacy in the western hemisphere and

to build a third world coalition of nations with interests that may
well be at variance or even inimical to American interests and
values. 13 According to this view, the assertive Chinese commercial interest
demonstrated at the November 2004 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum meeting in
Chile should serve as a wake-up call to U.S. policymakers to focus more
attention on Chinas growing role in the region.14 Chinas regional presence,
they say, ultimately could have significant strategic implications for the United States when China begins
Some observers who are wary of

PRC initiatives in the Western Hemisphere contend that the Chinese
government is attempting to exploit weaknesses left by U.S.
inattentiveness to the region. According to this view, the United States should adopt a
to take action to protect its interests in the region.15
new strategy in Latin America including expanding its own free trade network, helping friendly nations
develop strong market economies, fostering closer, more cooperative security relationships in order to
Chinese activity in Latin

America is one of relatively benign expansion, confined to seeking
out trade and investment opportunities.17 They say that the inroads
China has made into the region are marginal compared with
longstanding U.S. economic linkages, and they see evidence that
Chinese officials have been restrained in their Latin American
contacts.
deflect the China challenge.16 Other observers contend that
Plan causes the US to invest in Latin America more

Regenstreif 6/12/13 (Gary Regenstreif joined Reuters as a Reporter,
Canada; former Bureau Chief, Caracas, Buenos Aires & Rome; later, Regional
Editor, Western Europe; has overseen local-language news products in
domestic markets for Thomson Reuters) (The looming U.S.-China rivalry over
Latin America http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/06/12/thelooming-u-s-china-rivalry-over-latin-america/)
Though the U.S. and Chinese presidents heralded a new model of
cooperation at their weekend summit, a growing competition looks
more likely. The whirlwind of activity before President Barack Obama met
with President Xi Jinping in the California desert revealed that Beijing and
Washingtons sights are set on a similar prize and face differing challenges
to attain it. Their focus is Latin America and the prize is increased trade and
investment opportunities in a region where economic reforms have pulled
millions out of poverty and into the middle class. Latin America is rich in the
commodities and energy that both China and the United States need, largely
stable politically and eager to do deals. Consider the travel itinerary: Obama
visited Mexico and Costa Rica last month. Vice President Joe Biden recently
went to Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago and Brazil. Chiles president paid
Obama a visit last week, Perus leader arrived Tuesday and Brazils is due in
October. Meanwhile, just after Biden left Trinidad, Xi arrived, part of a tour
that also took him to Costa Rica and Mexico to promote trade and
cooperation. Both U.S. and Chinese officials, however, are finding a
more self-confident Latin America, able to leverage its new strength
to forge better agreements and find multiple trading partners. That
will likely force Washington to work harder to maintain its leading
trade position against China which has money to burn in the
region. There is a more energetic [U.S.] tone, a more optimistic mood
about economic agenda in second term than [the] first time, Michael Shifter,
president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy group, told me.
Theres something happening in the region and the U.S. wants to be
part of it. Whether theres a well-thought-out vision or policy remains a
question. But there is more of an affirmation of the region and a willingness
to engage. The United States, Latin Americas largest trading partner
throughout much of its history, still retains this position. Washington has
now signed free trade agreements with more than a third of the
hemispheres nations and annually exchanges more than $800
billion in goods and services with Latin America more than three
times the regions commerce with China.
Venezuelan Oil
Venezuela China Venezuela oil
Cerna 10 (International Policy Management at Kennesaw State University,
Kennesaw, GA, Chinas Growing presence in Latin America and Implications
for US and Chinese Presence in the Region,
http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-americaimplications-for-u-s-and-chinese-presence-in-the-region/
In order to meet rising industrial needs and consumer demand,

China has pursued investments and agreements with a variety of
Latin American oil producers. In 2007 Venezuela agreed to a $6
billion joint investment fund for infrastructure projects at home
and for oil refineries in China able to process Venezuelan heavy
crude oil (Santiso, 2007). Venezuela planned to increase oil
exports to China by 300,000 barrels per day. Then in 2009,
Venezuela announced a $16 billion investment deal with the
Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for oil exploration
in the Orinoco River to develop heavy crude oil resources
(Economist, 2009). Meanwhile, the CNPC has invested $300
million in technology to use Venezuelas Orimulsion fuel in
Chinese power plants. This exemplifies Venezuelas desire to
break away from the U.S. During a visit to China in 2004,
President Chavez said shifting exports to China would help end
dependency on sales to the United States (Johnson, 2005).
Cuba
Link China is already one of the largest trading partners
with Cuba
China, not the U.S., is now Chiles biggest copper export market; a true New
Copper Road, a sea lane rather, now stretches from the southern Pacific to
East Asia. China is now Cubas second-largest trading partner (after
Venezuela), with annual bilateral trade at over US$2.6 billion. China
has also pledged $10 billion in loans to Brazils oil giant Petrobras to develop
the Western hemisphere's largest oil discovery since 1976. And by 2012,
Caracas will be selling 1 million barrels of oil a day to Beijing. No wonder
Chinese President Hu Jintao can confidently declare at the APEC
summit in Peru that China and South America have already
become extremely good friends and partners.25 At a signature
ceremony in Washington for Chinas accession into the Inter- American
Development Bank (IDB), Zhou Wenzhong, Chinas Ambassador to the United
States, pointed out that China is the largest developing country, and
Latin America is the most important developing region in the
world. Bringing these two together for high-level, broadbased and
high-quality cooperation is in alignment with the trend of the times
and the development needs of the two sides.26 Joining the IDB,
China will have additional incentive to fulfill its obligations,
strengthen policy coordination with member countries both in and
outside the region, engage in IDBs activities, and promote bilateral
cooperation in trade financing and infrastructure construction and
other areas of mutual concern so as to carry forward poverty
reduction and socioeconomic development in Latin America and the
Caribbean. And of course, it paves the way for Chinese companies to take
part in infrastructure projects in Latin America. On Nov. 16, 2008, Beijing
released Chinas Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean. It reads,
under new circumstances, the development of relations between China and
Latin American and Caribbean countries is faced with new opportunities.
China's policy goals on the region include: promoting mutual respect and
mutual trust and expanding common ground; deepening cooperation and
achieving win-win results; drawing on each others strengths to boost
common progress and intensify exchanges; and confirming that the one
China principle is the political basis for the establishment and development
of relations between two sides. For Jiang Shixue, expert on Latin American
Studies at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, cooperation in some fields
mentioned in the policy paper is still in its infancy, while opportunities for
cooperation in other fields remain unexplored.27
Impacts
Latin American Economy

Chinese investment good it injects money into Latin
American economies
Romero 2009 (Simon Romero reported from Caracas, and Alexei
Barrionuevo from Rio de Janeiro.)(NYT 2009 Deals Help China Expand Sway
in Latin America
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?_r=0)
CARACAS, Venezuela As Washington tries to rebuild its strained
relationships in Latin America, China is stepping in vigorously, offering
countries across the region large amounts of money while they
struggle with sharply slowing economies, a plunge in commodity prices
and restricted access to credit.In recent weeks, China has been
negotiating deals to double a development fund in Venezuela to $12
billion, lend Ecuador at least $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant,
provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion in Chinese
currency and lend Brazils national oil company $10 billion. The deals
largely focus on China locking in natural resources like oil for years to come.
Chinas trade with Latin America has grown quickly this decade,
making it the regions second largest trading partner after the United States.
But the size and scope of these loans point to a deeper engagement with
Latin America at a time when the Obama administration is starting to address
the erosion of Washingtons influence in the hemisphere. This is how the
balance of power shifts quietly during times of crisis, said David Rothkopf, a
former Commerce Department official in the Clinton administration. The
loans are an example of the checkbook power in the world moving to
new places, with the Chinese becoming more active. Mr. Obama will
meet with leaders from the region this weekend. They will discuss the
economic crisis, including a plan to replenish the Inter-American Development
Bank, a Washington-based pillar of clout that has suffered losses from the
financial crisis. Leaders at the summit meeting are also expected to push Mr.
Obama to further loosen the United States policy toward Cuba. Meanwhile,
China is rapidly increasing its lending in Latin America as it pursues
not only long-term access to commodities like soybeans and iron
ore, but also an alternative to investing in United States Treasury notes.
One of Chinas new deals in Latin America, the $10 billion arrangement
with Argentina, would allow Argentina reliable access to Chinese currency to
help pay for imports from China. It may also help lead the way to Chinas
currency to eventually be used as an alternate reserve currency. The
deal follows similar ones China has struck with countries like South Korea,
Indonesia and Belarus.
US involvement in Latin America is too complicated. China

solves better
Regenstreif 6/12/13 (Gary Regenstreif joined Reuters as a Reporter,
Canada; former Bureau Chief, Caracas, Buenos Aires & Rome; later, Regional
Editor, Western Europe; has overseen local-language news products in
domestic markets for Thomson Reuters) (The looming U.S.-China rivalry over
Latin America http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/06/12/thelooming-u-s-china-rivalry-over-latin-america/)
In Obamas first term, however, the administration was widely viewed as
neglecting Latin America. And China has moved in fast. China built its
annual trade with the region from virtually nothing in 2000 to about
$260 billion in 2012. In 2009, it overtook the United States as the largest trading partner of Brazil,
the regions powerhouse largely through massive purchases of iron ore and soy. Other data is telling: In
1995, for example, the United States accounted for 37 percent of Brazils foreign direct investment. That
dropped to 10 percent in 2011, according to the Council of the Americas, which seeks to foster
hemispheric ties.
Washingtons renewed ardor is at least partly because

of the fear that China will repeat in Latin America the economic success it has
built in Africa. China has been able to present itself as a benevolent partner there, which has played well
against the Wests history of meddling in domestic affairs. Its about influence and leverage, said Eric
Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas, The region matured and expects to be treated
in real partnership rather than [in the] patronizing way it happened in the past. The challenges facing
Beijing and Washington lie in how each approaches the region .
Washington confronts
lingering resentment about its historic regional interference,
stretching back to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, and its continuing
desire to mix business with policy which muddies its approach to
trade and investment. Washingtons domestic problems, its pivot to Asia
and a host of global crises, also serve as distractions that could keep its
actions in Latin America from matching its words as has happened before.
China, meanwhile, is largely viewed in the region as unencumbered
by ideology. It approaches opportunities almost exclusively on
commercial terms there. Biden, in a May 29 speech in Rio de Janeiro, gushed about the
progress made by Latin America and trumpeted the regions growing international stature. In the U.S.,
Biden said, the discussion is no longer what it was when I was first elected as a young man: What could
we do for the Americas? Thats long since gone. The issue now is: What can we do together? We want to
engage more. We think theres great opportunity. Were optimistic. As with many new starts, a
recognition of past mistakes is in order. For many in Brazil, Biden said, the United States doesnt start
with a clean slate. Theres some good reason for that skepticism. That skepticism still exists and its
understandable. But the world has changed. Were moving past old alignments, leaving behind old
suspicions and building new relationships. China has particular interest in Mexico, the regions secondlargest market. Beijing has been competing with Mexico to supply the U.S. market with manufactured
goods. But China is now looking to work with Mexico City investing in infrastructure, mining and energy
because of the expected reforms that would open the oil industry to foreign investment. There are
obstacles ahead. One irritation that President Enrique Pea Nieto shared with Xi is that though Mexico
posted a trade surplus with its global partners, it ran a big deficit with China. China is looking for even
more however. It is eager to pursue a free trade agreement with Mexico, but Mexico City said last week it
was too soon. Meanwhile, Mexicos trade with the United States continues to flourish and it is due to
displace Canada as the largest U.S. trade partner by the end of the decade, according to the Dialogue.
China is also considering joining negotiations for the Trans-Pacific

Partnership agreement, which aims to boost trade among the
Americas, Asia and Australia. The talks include the United States, Canada and other major
economies on the Pacific rim. Each superpower also brings baggage to the region. Washington still seeks
to exert pressure on its partners. It has told Brazil, for example, that it has the responsibility to use its
leverage with others, such as Iran. Meanwhile, Chinese investment, Farnsworth said, doesnt always
The
different approaches suit Latin America just fine as it looks for
continued growth. Latin Americas welcomes being courted by both
superpowers, Shifter explained. Just as Latin America doesnt want to rely too much on the United
bring with it good governance practices or anti corruption or environmental concerns.
States, it also now doesnt want to depend too much on Beijing, particularly in light of the Chinas current
economic slowdown. It gives them options, Shifter said about the different dynamics in play. The
U.S. relationship comes with more complications. The Chinese one

comes strictly on the economic question. Theyre very targeted, strategic in areas they
want to support. They have a specific agenda. The U.S. agenda is more diffuse. Latin America welcomes
both.
CCP Collapse
Economic collapse leads to the collapse of the CCP that
causes social unrest
Cheng 9. [Li, research director and senior fellow at the Brookings Institutions John L. Thornton China
Center, "China's Team of Rivals" Foreign Policy -- March 1 -www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/02/16/china_s_team_of_rivals]
The two dozen senior politicians who walk the halls of Zhongnanhai, the
compound of the Chinese Communist Party's leadership in Beijing, are
worried. What was inconceivable a year ago now threatens their rule:
an economy in freefall. Exports, critical to China's searing economic
growth, have plunged. Thousands of factories and businesses, especially
those in the prosperous coastal regions, have closed. In the last six months of
2008, 10 million workers, plus 1 million new college graduates, joined the
already gigantic ranks of the country's unemployed. During the same period,
the Chinese stock market lost 65 percent of its value, equivalent to $3 trillion.
The crisis, President Hu Jintao said recently, "is a test of our ability to control
a complex situation, and also a test of our party's governing ability." With this
rapid downturn, the Chinese Communist Party suddenly looks
vulnerable. Since Deng Xiaoping initiated economic reforms three decades
ago, the party's legitimacy has relied upon its ability to keep the
economy running at breakneck pace . If China is no longer able to
maintain a high growth rate or provide jobs for its ever growing
labor force, massive public dissatisfaction and social unrest could
erupt. No one realizes this possibility more than the handful of people who
steer China's massive economy. Double-digit growth has sheltered them
through a SARS epidemic, massive earthquakes, and contamination scandals.
Now, the crucial question is whether they are equipped to handle an
economic crisis of this magnitude -- and survive the political challenges it will
bring. This year marks the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic, and the
ruling party is no longer led by one strongman, like Mao Zedong or
Deng Xiaoping. Instead, the Politburo and its Standing Committee,
China's most powerful body, are run by two informal coalitions that
compete against each other for power, influence, and control over
policy. Competition in the Communist Party is, of course, nothing new. But
the jockeying today is no longer a zero-sum game in which a winner takes all.
It is worth remembering that when Jiang Zemin handed the reins to his
successor, Hu Jintao, in 2002, it marked the first time in the republic's history
that the transfer of power didn't involve bloodshed or purges. What's more,
Hu was not a protg of Jiang's; they belonged to competing factions. To
borrow a phrase popular in Washington these days, post-Deng China has
been run by a team of rivals. This internal competition was enshrined as
party practice a little more than a year ago. In October 2007, President Hu
surprised many China watchers by abandoning the party's normally
straightforward succession procedure and designating not one but two heirs
apparent. The Central Committee named Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang -- two very
different leaders in their early 50s -- to the nine-member Politburo Standing
Committee, where the rulers of China are groomed. The future roles of these
two men, who will essentially share power after the next party congress
meets in 2012, have since been refined: Xi will be the candidate to succeed
the president, and Li will succeed Premier Wen Jiabao. The two rising stars
share little in terms of family background, political association,
leadership skills, and policy orientation. But they are each heavily
involved in shaping economic policy -- and they are expected to lead
the two competing coalitions that will be relied upon to craft China's
political and economic trajectory in the next decade and beyond.
Causes nuclear war.

Yee and Storey 2. [Professor of Politics and International Relations at Hong Kong Baptist
University and Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and
Reality, p. 5]
the fear of political and

economic collapse in the PRC, resulting in territorial fragmentation,
civil war and waves of refugees pouring into neighbouring countries .
Naturally, any or all of these scenarios would have a profoundly negative
impact on regional stability. Today the Chinese leadership faces a raft
of internal problems, including the increasing political demands of its citizens, a growing
The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is
population, a shortage of natural resources and a deterioration in the natural environment caused by rapid
These problems are putting a strain on the

central governments ability to govern effectively. Political
disintegration or a Chinese civil war might result in millions of
Chinese refugees seeking asylum in neighbouring countries. Such an
unprecedented exodus of refugees from a collapsed PRC would no
doubt put a severe strain on the limited resources of Chinas
neighbours. A fragmented China could also result in another
nightmare scenario nuclear weapons falling into the hands of
irresponsible local provincial leaders or warlords.12 From this perspective, a
disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the
world.
industrialization and pollution.
Ext CCP collapse = nuke war

Nuke war is inevitable. Its a question of whether or not
the CCP feels the need to lash out if they lose power
Rexing 5. (San Epoch Times International August 3 -- http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-8rd
3/30931.html)
What, then, is the gist of this sinister plan of insane gambling on the
deathbed? It can be summarized as a beast at bay is fighting humanity for
survival. To reinforce your belief, please read the following excerpts from
the speech. 1) We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our
biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack (on the US), the
Chinese people will be able to keep their loss at a minimum in the
fight against the U.S. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a
nuclear retaliation from the U.S., China would perhaps suffer a
catastrophe in which more than half of its population would perish.
That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and
medium-sized cities. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward
fearlessly for the sake of our Party and state and our nations future,
regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices we have to
make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if
the Party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone! 2) In any
event, we, the CCP, will never step down from the stage of history! Wed
rather have the whole world, or even the entire globe, share life and death
with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isnt there a nuclear
bondage theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound
the security of the entire world, all will die together if death is
inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the
fate our Party is tied up with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are
over, China will be over, and the world will be over. 3) It is indeed
brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path
that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the
world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths. But if history
confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of
Americans, wed have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to
safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party. That is
because, after all, we are Chinese and members of the CCP. Since the day we
joined the CCP, the Partys life has always been above all else! Since the
Partys life is above all else, it would not be surprising if the
CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons
in its attempt to postpone its life. The CCP, that disregards human
life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans,
coupled with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its
ends. The speech, free of all disguises, lets the public see the CCP for
what it really is: with evil filling its every cell, the CCP intends to fight all
of mankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. And that is the
theme of the speech. The theme is murderous and utterly evil. We did
witness in China beggars who demanded money from people by threatening
to stab themselves with knives or prick their throats on long nails. But we
have never, until now, seen a rogue who blackmails the world to die with it by
wielding biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons. Anyhow, the bloody

confession affirmed the CCPs bloodiness: a monstrous murderer,
who has killed 80 million Chinese people, now plans to hold one billion
people hostage and gamble with their lives. As the CCP is known to be
a clique with a closed system, it is extraordinary for it to reveal its top secret
on its own. One might ask: what is the CCPs purpose to make public its
gambling plan on its deathbed? The answer is: the speech would have
the effect of killing three birds with one stone. Its intentions are the
following: Expressing the CCPs resolve that it not be buried by either
heaven or earth (direct quote from the speech). But then, isnt the
CCP opposed to the universe if it claims not to be buried by heaven and
earth? Feeling the urgent need to harden its image as a soft egg in the face
of the Nine Commentaries. Preparing publicity for its final battle with
mankind by threatening war and trumpeting violence. So, strictly
speaking, what the CCP has leaked out is more of an attempt to clutch
at straws to save its life rather than to launch a trial balloon. Of
course, the way the speech was presented had been carefully prepared.
It did not have a usual opening or ending, and the audience, time, place, and
background related to the speech were all kept unidentified. One may
speculate or imagine as one may, but never verify. The aim was obviously to
create a mysterious setting. In short, the speech came out as something
one finds difficult to tell whether it is false or true.
Ext Influence Key to Resources

Energy resources are key to Chinese influence
Ellis 2006 (R. Evan Ellis is an Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. with
an emphasis on Latin American security issues, wargaming, and military and
business simulation) (March 3rd 2006 The New Chinese Engagement With
Latin America: Understanding Its Dynamics and the Implications for the
Regionhttp://www6.miami.edu/hemisphericpolicy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306.pdf)
On the supply side, China has simply been unable to keep up with
demand in key sectors such as petroleum and selected metals,
despite ambitious exploration efforts and investment in capacity expansion.
Chinese agriculture has been limited, for example, by inefficiency, limits in
suitable terrain,12 and encroachment by developers on traditional
agricultural lands.13 From 2001 to 2005, for example, Chinese demand for
soybean oil doubled.14 While the story is slightly different in each sector, the
combination of demand growth and supply limitations has been an
explosive growth in Chinese imports of a wide range of global
commodities. In the first 11 months of 2005, for example, China reported
that it imported $133.7 billion in primary products, representing a 26.2%
increase over the same period in 2004.15 Within this category, Chinese
imports of fuel products increased by 35%, while minerals and metal
imports increased by 26.1%.16 Chinas increasingly acute need to
import the resources that it requires to sustain its high rates of
economic growth not only has increased its demands on its current
network of suppliers, but has prompted it to engage in an everbroader search to secure future sources of supply. This quest has
led China not only into new forms of economic and political
engagement with Latin America, but also in Africa, the Middle East, and
other parts of the world.17 Although Chinas other global initiatives are also
important, it has a particularly strong interest in Latin America
because the region is oriented to export significant quantities of a
broad range of primary products that China needs to sustain its
economic growth.18
China-India War
CCP collapse causes China-India war.
Cohen 2. (Stephen, Senior Fellow Brookings Institution, Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War in South Asia: An
Unknowable Future, May, http://www.brookings.edu/dybdocroot/views/speeches/cohens20020501.pdf)
A similar argument may be made with respect to China. China is a country that has had its share of upheavals in the past. While there is no expectation
today of renewed internal turmoil, it is important to remember that closed
authoritarian societies are

subject to deep crisis in moments of sudden change. The breakup of the Soviet Union
and Yugoslavia, and the turmoil that has ravaged many members of the former communist bloc are examples of what could happen to China. A severe
economic crisis, rebellions in Tibet and Xinjiang, a reborn democracy movement and a party torn by factions could be the ingredients of an unstable
situation. A
vulnerable Chinese leadership determined to bolster its shaky

position by an aggressive policy toward India or the United States or both might
become involved in a major crisis with India, perhaps engage in nuclear
saber-rattling. That would encourage India to adopt a stronger
nuclear posture, possibly with American assistance.
That goes nuclear and draws in the US.

Fisher 11 (Max, Associate Editor at the Atlantic, Editor of the International Channel, 5 Most Likely
Ways the US and China Could Spark Accidental Nuclear War)
(4) China or India occupies disputed territory. In 1962, China seized a disputed district called Tawang along
its border with India. Since then, China hasn't shown much interest in using military force to invade
But Indian politics have become increasingly nationalist

and its leaders insecure about the rising Chinese power . India's
decades-long territorial dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir -- which came
very close to sparking nuclear war in the 1990s -- means that India is extremely
sensitive about its borders. It's not hard to foresee an erratic Indian
politician or a twitchy general trying to preempt some imagined
Chinese invasion of a disputed territory. If that happens, China's response
could easily escalate the stand-off, whether intentionally or not. India, like China, not
yet clarified precisely when it will and will not consider using nuclear weapons. The U.S., a close
ally of India, would probably be compelled to step in -- as it has between India
and Pakistan. But that might add to the volatility and the ways things could
spiral out of control.Photo: Indian army Brahmos missile launcher passes on a flotilla towards
disputed territory.
the India Gate memorial during rehearsal for the Republic Day parade in New Delhi.
Relations
Chinese investment in Latin America good facilitates
relations and foreign investment
Arnson and Davidow 2011 (Cynthia J. arnson is director of the Latin
American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for

Scholars Her most recent work has focused on the quality of democratic
governance in the hemisphere, poverty and inequality, energy and
international relations, and US policy in the Western hemisphere) (Jeffrey
Davidow is the president of the Institute of the Americas Before assuming
that position in 2003, he served for 34 years in the US Foreign Service,
with postings as assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere and
ambassador to Venezuela and Mexico He is the author of The U.S. and
Mexico: The Bear and the Porcupine, a book outlining the nature of the
complicated relationship)(January 2011 China, Latin America, and the
United States: The New Triangle
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/LAP_120810_Triangle_rpt.pdf)
The fundamental questions for the economic relationship between China and
Latin America are how to improve trade quality and how to diversify direct
investment beyond raw materials CAF has tried to facilitate a better
relationship with China through, for example, an agreement with the
China Development Bank Through this relationship, CAF shares its
knowledge on Latin America with the Chinese, while also
encouraging them to co-finance private sector projects that
contribute to diversifying Chinese investments in the region Garca
suggested that initiatives such as these increase social and
intellectual interaction and could also play a role in building
mutual understanding for a more constructive relationship with
China.
Taiwan War
Chinese economic downturn sparks Taiwan war.
Lewis 10 (Dan, Research Director of Economic Research Council, The nightmare of a Chinese
economic collapse World Finance, http://www.worldfinance.com/news/home/finalbell/article117.html)
keep Chinas society stable ie to manage the transition from

the minimum growth rate
is 7.2 percent. Anything less than that and unemployment will rise
and the massive shift in population from the country to the cities becomes
unsustainable. This is when real discontent with communist party
rule becomes vocal and hard to ignore. It doesnt end there. That will at best bring a global
It has been calculated that to
a rural to an urban society without devastating unemployment -
recession. The crucial point is that communist authoritarian states have at least had some success in
keeping a lid on ethnic tensions so far. But when multi-ethnic communist countries fall apart from
economic stress and the implosion of central power, history suggests that they dont become successful
Theres a very real chance that China might

go the way of Yugoloslavia or the Soviet Union chaos, civil unrest
and internecine war. In the very worst case scenario, a Chinese government
might seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with
Taiwan whom America is pledged to defend.
democracies overnight. Far from it.
Taiwan war causes extinction.

Straits Times 00 (6-25, Lexis, No one gains in war over Taiwan)
THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates a crossstrait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China .
If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a fullscale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil
other countries far and near and -- horror of horrors -- raise the possibility of a
nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country
providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its
retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore.
If China were to retaliate, east Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end
there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US
Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. The balance of

hostilities
between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a
new and dangerous phase. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to
distracted,
power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia,
General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the
Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from
military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the
conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with
two choices in Korea -- truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If
the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar
there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later,

short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear
capability,
warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option.
A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use"
principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded
Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in
Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from
the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the
should
that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation . There
country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that
the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon

over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts
would be no victors in such a war. While
sovereignty above everything else.
Ag Cooperation
China and Latin America to boost ag cooperation
Xinhua 6-9 (China, Latin America to boost agricultural
cooperation, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/201306/09/c_132444844.htm)
China, Latin American and Caribbean countries will look to
eliminate trade barriers as they look to boost agricultural
cooperation, a joint statement said Sunday. Efforts will also be
made to simplify trade procedures, according to a statement from
the China-Latin America and the Caribbean Agricultural Ministers'
Forum, which was held in Beijing. The sides will work together to
set up agricultural research and development centers and
demonstration projects for food production and processing, the
statement said. China, Latin American and Caribbean countries
will jointly hold agricultural fairs and expos to promote bilateral
trade. The sides will make full use of a special fund of 50 million
U.S. dollars set up by the Chinese government last year for
bilateral agricultural cooperation, the statement added.
Laundry List
Chinese influence good for a laundry list of reasons
Xiaoxia 5/6/13 (Wang Xiaoxia is a staff writer for the Economic Observer)
(IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD: CHINA'S RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA
http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investmentsenergy/c9s11647/)
Initially, Chinas activities in Latin America were limited to the diplomatic level. By providing
funds and assisting in infrastructure constructions, China managed
to interrupt diplomatic ties between poor Latin countries and
Taiwan. Since then, with China's economic boom, the supply of energy and resources
has gradually become a problem that plagues China -- and its exchanges with Latin
America thus are endowed with real substantive purpose. Among the
numerous needs of China, the demand for oil has always been the most powerful driving force. In the past
30 years, China has consumed one-third of the world's new oil production and become the world's secondlargest oil importer. More than half of China's oil demand depends on imports, which increases the
instability of its energy security. Diversification is inevitable. In this context, Latin America and its huge
China must better

protect its energy supply, and can't just play the simple role of
consumer. It must also help solidify the important links of the
petroleum industry supply chain. Indeed, the China National Petroleum Corporation
reserves and production capacity naturally became a destination for China.
frequently appears in Latin American countries, and Chinas investment and trade in the Latin American
countries are also focused on its energy sector. In the opinion of many European and American scholars,
China's current practice isnt much different from that of Western colonizers of the last century. These
scholars believe that China doesnt care about local human rights or the state of democracy when dealing
China is interested in is establishing long-term, stable

economic relations. This realistic path is exactly opposite to that of America's newfound
idealism. Thus China has become a close collaborator of certain Latin
American countries, such as Venezuela, that are in sharp conflict with the United States. The
with countries. All
global financial crisis of 2008 was a chance for China to become an increasingly important player in Latin
American. As Europe and the United States were caught in a financial quagmire, China, with nearly $3
trillion of foreign exchange reserves as backing, embarked on "funds-for-assets" transactions with Latin
American countries. So what does China want exactly in entering Latin American? Is it to obtain a stable
supply of energy and resources, and thus inadvertently acquire political influence? Or the other way round?
Presumably most U.S. foreign policy-makers are well aware of the answer.
China's
involvement in the Latin American continent doesnt constitute a

threat to the United States, but brings benefits. It is precisely because
China has reached "loans-for-oil" swap agreements with Venezuela, Brazil,
Ecuador and other countries that it brings much-needed funds to these oilproducing countries in South America. Not only have these funds been used in the
field of oil production, but they have also safeguarded the energy supply of the
United States, as well as stabilized these countries' livelihood -- and to a certain extent
reduced the impact of illegal immigration and the drug trade on the
U.S.
Chinese Soft Power

Chinese influence in Latin America is key to soft power
Ellis 10 (R. Evan, Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for
Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University. Chinese Soft Power
in Latin America: A Case Study http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-powerlatin-america.html, 12/27/10)
China's economic footprint in Latin America, and its attempts to

engage the region politically, culturally, and otherwise, has
expanded enormously. Understanding the nature and limits of
PRC soft power in Latin America casts light on Chinese soft power
in other parts of the world as well. The Nature of Chinese Soft
Power In general, the bases of Chinese soft power differ from
those of the United States, leading analysts to underestimate that
power when they compare the PRC to the United States on those
factors that are the sources of U.S. influence, such as the affinity
of the world's youth for American music, media, and lifestyle, the
widespread use of the English language in business and
technology, or the number of elites who have learned their
professions in U.S. institutions. It is also important to clarify that
soft power is based on perceptions and emotion (that is,
inferences), and not necessarily on objective reality. Although
China's current trade with and investment position in Latin
America are still limited compared to those of the United States,3
its influence in the region is based not so much on the current
size of those activities, but rather on hopes or fears in the region
of what it could be in the future. Because perception drives soft
power, the nature of the PRC impact on each country in Latin
America is shaped by its particular situation, hopes, fears, and
prevailing ideology. The "Bolivarian socialist" regime of Hugo
Chvez in Venezuela sees China as a powerful ally in its crusade
against Western "imperialism," while countries such as Peru,
Chile, and Colombia view the PRC in more traditional terms as an
important investor and trading partner within the context of
global free market capitalism. The core of Chinese soft power in
Latin America, as in the rest of the world, is the widespread
perception that the PRC, because of its sustained high rates of
economic growth and technology development, will present
tremendous business opportunities in the future, and will be a
power to be reckoned with globally. In general, this perception can be divided into seven
areas: hopes for future access to Chinese markets hopes for future Chinese investment influence of Chinese entities
and infrastructure in Latin America hopes for the PRC to serve as a counterweight to the United States and Western
institutions China as a development model affinity for Chinese culture and work ethic China as "the wave of the
future." In each of these cases, the soft power of the PRC can be identified as operating through distinct sets of actors:
the political leadership of countries, the business community, students and youth, and the general population. Hopes for
Future Access to Chinese Markets. Despite China's impressive rates of sustained growth, only a small fraction of its
population of 1.3 billion is part of the "modern" economy with the resources that allow them to purchase Western goods.
Estimates of the size of the Chinese middle class range from 100 million to 150 million people, depending on the income
threshold used, although the number continues to expand rapidly.4 While selling to Chinese markets is a difficult and
expensive proposition, the sheer number of potential consumers inspires great aspirations among Latin American
businesspeople, students, and government officials. The Ecuadorian banana magnate Segundo Wong, for example,
reportedly stated that if each Chinese would eat just one Ecuadorian banana per week, Ecuador would be a wealthy
country. Similar expressions can be found in many other Latin American countries as well. In the commodities sector,
Latin American exports have expanded dramatically in recent years, including Chilean copper, Brazilian iron, and
Venezuelan petroleum. In Argentina, Chinese demand gave rise to an entire new export-oriented soy industry where none
previously existed. During the 2009 global recession, Chinese demand for commodities, based in part on a massive
Chinese stimulus package oriented toward building infrastructure, was perceived as critical for extractive industries
throughout Latin America, as demand from traditional export markets such as the United States and Europe fell off.
Beyond commodities, certain internationally recognized Latin American brands, such as Jos Cuervo, Caf Britt, Bimbo,
Modelo, Pollo Campero, and Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee, sell to the new Chinese middle class, which is open to
leveraging its new wealth to "sample" the culture and cuisine of the rest of the world. Unfortunately, most products that
Latin America has available to export, including light manufactures and traditional products such as coffee and tropical
fruits, are relatively uncompetitive in China and subject to multiple formal and informal barriers to entry. Despite the rift
between hopes and reality, the influence of China in this arena can be measured in terms of the multitude of business
owners who are willing to invest millions of dollars and countless hours of their time and operate in China at a loss for
years, based on the belief that the future of their corporations depends on successfully positioning themselves within the
emerging Chinese market. The hopes of selling products to China have also exerted a powerful impact on political
leaders seeking to advance the development of their nations. Chilean presidents Ricardo Lagos and Michelle Bachelet, for
example, made Sino-Chilean trade relations the cornerstone of Chile's economic policy, signing the first free-trade pact
between the PRC and a Latin American nation in November 2005. Peruvian president Alan Garcia made similar efforts to
showcase that nation as a bridge to China when it hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November
2008. Governments in the region have also invested significant sums of money in the China-related activities of trade
promotion organizations such as APEX (Brazil), ProChile, ProComer (Costa Rica), Fundacin Exportar (Argentina), and
CORPEI (Ecuador), among others, as well as representative offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and other Chinese
cities, with the objective of helping their nationals to place products in those countries. Latin American leaders, from
presidents to mayors, lead delegations to the PRC and fund elaborate pavilions in Chinese culture and trade shows such
as the Canton Trade Fair and the Shanghai World Expo in an effort to help their countries' businesses sell products in the
PRC. Hopes for Future Chinese Investment. China's combination of massive sustained trade surpluses and high internal
savings rates gives the PRC significant resources that many in Latin America hope will be invested in their countries.
Chinese president Hu Jintao helped to generate widespread awareness of the possibility of Chinese investment in the
region during his trip to five Latin American countries in 2004, specifically mentioning tens of billions of dollars in possible
investment projects. A public controversy over whether his use of the figure $100 billion was actually referring to trade or
investment has only called more attention in Latin America to China as a potential source of funds. Although the
expected Chinese investment was initially slow to materialize, today, thanks to China's growing familiarity with doing
business in Latin America, and its enormous financial reserves (including a foreign currency surplus that had reached $2.5
trillion by mid-20105), the PRC has begun to loan, or invest, tens of billions of dollars in the region, including in high-profile
deals such as: $28 billion in loans to Venezuela; $16.3 billion commitment to develop the Junin-4 oil block in Venezuela's
Orinoco oil belt $10 billion to Argentina to modernize its rail system; $3.1 billion to purchase the Argentine petroleum
company Bridas $1 billion advance payment to Ecuador for petroleum, and another $1.7 billion for a hydroelectric
project, with negotiations under way for $3 billion to $5 billion in additional investments more than $4.4 billion in
commitments to develop Peruvian mines, including Toromocho, Rio Blanco, Galleno, and Marcona $5 billion steel plant in
the Brazilian port of Au, and another $3.1 billion to purchase a stake in Brazilian offshore oil blocks from the Norwegian
company Statoil; a $10 billion loan to Brazil's Petrobras for the development of its offshore oil reserves; and $1.7 billion to
purchase seven Brazilian power companies. For Latin America, the timing of the arrival of the Chinese capital magnified
its impact, with major deals ramping up in 2009, at a time when many traditional funding sources in the region were
frozen because of the global financial crisis. Moreover, as Sergio Gabrielli, president of the Brazilian national oil company
Petrobras has commented, China is able to negotiate large deals, integrating government and private sector activities in
ways that U.S. investors cannot.6 Influence of Chinese Entities and Infrastructure in Latin America. Although the
presence of Chinese corporations and workers in Latin America pales by comparison to that of the United States, it is
growing and exerting an increasing weight in select countries. Particularly in states such as Ecuador and Venezuela,
Chinese corporations are becoming increasingly critical for the functioning of the extractive industries that generate
significant portions of the state's revenue. In Ecuador, Chinese petroleum and service companies directly operate seven
oil blocks, are a partner in others through consortiums, and account for almost 40 percent of nonstate oil production, while
China Railway Road and Tongling are ramping up for a $3 billion project in the recently opened Ecuadorian mining sector.
In Venezuela, Chinese companies are one of the key actors maintaining oil production in the mature oilfields of Maracaibo
and Anzotegui, a vital current revenue stream for the Chvez regime. In the Orinoco belt in the south of Venezuela,
Chinese investment, technology, and manpower, including Chinese-made drilling rigs, are a key to the development of
that nation's future oil potential, while a May 2010 agreement makes Chinese companies key players in the extraction of
Venezuelan iron, gold, bauxite, and coal.7 Although Chinese companies have yet to attain the level of "key employers" or
have a major role in many Latin American communities, they play a growing role in strategically important sectors in
many Latin American countries. For example, in telecommunications, the Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE are
increasingly important product, service, and infrastructure providers,8 and in logistics, companies such as China Shipping,
China Overseas Shipping, and Hutchison Whampoa play increasingly vital roles in Latin America's foreign trade.
Ironically, Latin American Chinese communities have played a relatively limited role in this expanding influence. Although
there are large, historically rooted Chinese communities in countries such as Peru, Ecuador, Panama, and Brazil, Chinese
immigrants have traditionally sought to keep a low profile in these societies. The structure of these communities has also
served to channel new Chinese immigrants into certain traditional occupations, such as restaurants, the retail sector, or
farming, with the result that ethnic Chinese today have a fairly narrow involvement in emerging ChinaLatin America
trade, even in key hubs for trade such as Coln, Iquique, or Ciudad del Este. Beyond business ties, the PRC has an
important and growing presence in the region's military institutions. In addition to frequent visits by senior-level officers
and defense leaders, Mexico and almost all of the countries of South America send officers to professional military
education courses in the PRC, including a 5-month course for midgrade officers taught in Spanish in Beijing. Chinese-made
clothing and nonlethal equipment are also becoming increasingly common within Latin American militaries. In addition,
thanks to opportunities provided by the regimes of Ecuador, Venezuela, and Bolivia, the PRC has begun to sell
sophisticated hardware in the region, such as radars and K8 and MA60 aircraft. As happened in commercial industries
such as motorcycles, cars, and consumer appliances, Chinese military goods companies such as Norinco are likely to
leverage their experience and a growing track record for their goods to expand their market share in the region, with the
secondary consequence being that those purchasers will become more reliant on the associated Chinese logistics,
maintenance, and training infrastructures that support those products. Beyond Chinese corporations and military ties,
the PRC is also taking on a progressively important role in regional institutions, such as the Organization of American
States (OAS), Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), and United Nations peacekeeping operations in Haiti. Although
the PRC has only observer status in the OAS, for example, its delegation is a strong contributor to the activities of the
body.9 With respect to the IADB, China has leveraged its seat at the table as an opening for doing business in the region,
such as the $10.2 billion currency swap with Argentina, which it signed on the sideline of the IADB's annual meeting in
March 2009. Also, through its initial financial contribution to the IADB, the PRC became part of a special committee
overseeing loans to highly impoverished countries in the region, affording it expanded contacts with and subtle pressures
over countries that do not currently recognize the PRC diplomatically, including Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In the
case of Haiti, Chinese leverage is further bolstered by having had police forces on the ground there since 2006, through
Hopes for the PRC to Serve

as a Counterweight to the United States and Western Institutions .
China's historical status as a "leader of the developing world"
positions it as the natural ally of the new generation of Latin
American populist leaders, such as Hugo Chvez, Rafael Correa,
and Evo Morales. During his first trip to Beijing after being elected
president, for example, Morales proclaimed himself to be a "great
admirer of Mao," while Chvez has exclaimed that Mao and South
American revolutionary icon Simn Bolvar would have been
"great friends." While these leaders may primarily be seeking
Chinese investments and commodity purchases, the position of
the PRC as a geopolitical "alternative" to the United States
shapes the way that they court the Chinese. In permitting such
hopes, the PRC has, to date, been careful not to associate itself
directly with the anti-U.S. activities or rhetoric of these regimes,
so as not to damage its strategically important relationship with
the United States and the West. Nonetheless, the relationship
cannot avoid some flavor of the relationships between the Soviet
Union and its Latin American client states during the Cold War.
Bolivia turned to China to purchase K8 combat aircraft, for
example, after the United States blocked its ability to procure
aircraft from the Czech Republic. China as a Development Model.
The tremendous, sustained economic growth that the PRC has
enjoyed since opening up to the world in 1978 has caused many
in Latin America to look to China's integration of capitalism and
authoritarian politics as a development model, even while the
U.S. combination of liberal democracy, free markets, and
privatization is increasingly seen as ineffective for solving the
region's endemic problems, such as corruption, poverty, and
inequality. For traditional Latin American elites, the Chinese
model is particularly attractive because it suggests that it is
possible to achieve prosperity and growth without relinquishing
political power. As with other Chinese sources of soft power, the
impact of the "Beijing Consensus" in Latin America relies on
PRC participation in the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti.10
perceptions rather than realities; differences between the two

regionsincluding the relative submission to authority in the
Chinese work culture, Chinese willingness to save rather than
spend, and another part of the world serving as the market for
Chinese exportsmake the Chinese success story difficult to
repeat in Latin America.
Affinity for Chinese Culture. The PRC has actively promoted Chinese culture and language throughout the world, including
through such landmark events as the 2008 Olympics in Beijing and 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, visited by an estimated
5 million foreign tourists,12 as well as establishing more than 282 Confucius institutes worldwide, including 20 in Latin
America. Cultural exchanges are a featured part of China's dealings with Latin America, consistent with the
"nonthreatening" character that Beijing wishes to emphasize in these interactions. Despite PRC "marketing efforts," by
contrast to the global impact of U.S. culture, Chinese culture is arguably one of the PRC's weakest levers of soft power in
Latin America, with interest in Chinese culture arguably reflecting, more than driving, China's influence in the region.
Although some Chinese culture is reaching the Latin American mainstream, perceptions of it in Latin America are
generally limited and superficial, sometimes based on media reports or experiences with ethnic Chinese living in those
countries. Such perceptions are often mixed, including respect for the Chinese work ethic, a sense of mystery regarding
Chinese culture, and often a sense of mistrust arising from the perceived differentness of that culture and commercial
competition from Chinese products. China as "the Wave of the Future." Perhaps China's greatest source of soft power is
the most intangible. China's emergence as a key global player is a phenomenon that has assumed almost mystical
proportions within Latin America. The rapid growth in PRC trade with and investment in Latin America, and the expansion
of contacts at all levels, only reinforce the perceived significance of "China's rise," as observed from Latin America. In
addition to opportunism for commerce, Latin America's belief in the rise of China and its globally transformational
implications draws the attention of the people and leaders of the region to the PRC and shapes their course of action.
Costa Rican president Oscar Arias, for example, established regular diplomatic relations with the PRC as a necessary part
of ensuring the relevance of his country as an international actor. At the popular level, the rise of China is most likely
behind a swelling interest in the Chinese language in the region. The dedication of 5 or more years by students to gain a
basic capability in the Mandarin language and its character set, for example, is arguably driven by their calculation that
the ability to communicate in Chinese will be fundamental to the pursuit of opportunities in the PRC, and with Chinese
businessmen and government officials, in the future. Use of Chinese Soft Power One of the most important questions
associated with the rise of China is how it is likely to use its growing soft power. Although such an endeavor is, by nature,
speculative, Chinese interests and patterns of behavior to date suggest the continued use of that influence in at least the
following areas: diplomatic recognition of Taiwan access to Latin American markets protection of Chinese investments
in and trade flows from the region protection of Chinese nationals working against the consolidation of U.S. influence in
the region and its institutions. Although the Chinese government repeatedly states its commitment to noninterference in
the internal affairs of partner nations, in reality the PRC is as interested in such issues as any other outside country. Only
the issues that the PRC focuses on, and the ways in which China applies pressure, differ. Diplomatic Recognition of
Taiwan. For the PRC, the government of Taiwan represents an important issue of political legitimacy and internal security.
Currently, 12 of the 23 nations in the world that diplomatically recognize the government of Taiwan are found in Latin
America and the Caribbean. Although the People's Republic of China does not publicly threaten to block investment in or
loans to countries that do not recognize the PRC, China repeatedly emphasizes the issue in its public diplomacy in the
region, and makes such investments and market access difficult for those countries that do not recognize it, while
simultaneously nurturing expectations regarding the opportunities that diplomatically recognizing the PRC could bring.
When Costa Rica changed its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC in May 2007, for example, it received an aid
package that included an $83 million soccer stadium, the purchase of $300 million in government bonds, various highway,
public works, and aid projects, and a $1 billion joint venture to expand the country's petroleum refinery, as well as PRC aid
in facilitating access to Chinese markets by traditional Costa Rican products such as coffee. In part, such Chinese
generosity was directed toward the other countries in the region that still recognized Taiwan in order to demonstrate the
types of benefits that could be made available if they too were to change their diplomatic posture.13 Although the PRC
and Taiwan have informally agreed to refrain from the use of economic incentives to competitively "bid" for diplomatic
recognition, since Costa Rica's switch, the allure of the PRC has prompted declarations of interest in changing diplomatic
posture by Panamanian president Richard Martenelli, Paraguayan president Fernando Lugo, and Salvadoran president
Maricio Fuenesalthough all did so prior to assuming office. Access to Latin American Markets.Latin American markets
are becoming increasingly valuable for Chinese companies because they allow the PRC to expand and diversify its export
base at a time when economic growth is slowing in traditional markets such as the United States and Europe. The region
has also proven an effective market for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated, higher value added products in sectors
seen as strategic, such as automobiles, appliances, computers and telecommunication equipment, and aircraft. In
expanding access for its products through free trade accords with countries such as Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica, and
penetrating markets in Latin American countries with existing manufacturing sectors such as Mexico, Brazil, and
Argentina, the PRC has often had to overcome resistance by organized and often politically well-connected established
interests in those nations. In doing so, the hopes of access to Chinese markets and investments among key groups of
businesspeople and government officials in those nations have played a key role in the political will to overcome the
resistance. In Venezuela, it was said that the prior Chinese ambassador to Venezuela, Zheng Tuo, was one of the few
people in the country who could call President Chvez on the telephone and get an instant response if an issue arose
regarding a Chinese company. Protection of Chinese Investments in and Trade Flows from the Region. At times, China has
applied more explicit pressures to induce Latin America to keep its markets open to Chinese goods. It has specifically
protested measures by the Argentine and Mexican governments that it has seen as protectionist: and, in the case of
Argentina, as informal retaliation, China began enforcing a longstanding phytosanitary regulation, causing almost $2
billion in lost soy exports and other damages for Argentina.14 China has also used its economic weight to help secure
major projects on preferential terms. In the course of negotiating a $1.7 billion loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair
Hydroelectric plant in Ecuador, the ability of the Chinese bidder SinoHidro to self-finance 85 percent of the projects
through Chinese banks helped it to work around the traditional Ecuadorian requirement that the project have a local
partner. Later, the Ecuadorian government publicly and bitterly broke off negotiations with the Chinese, only to return to
the bargaining table 2 months later after failing to find satisfactory alternatives. In Venezuela, the Chvez government
agreed, for example, to accept half of the $20 billion loaned to it by the PRC in Chinese currency, and to use part of that
currency to buy 229,000 consumer appliances from the Chinese manufacturer Haier for resale to the Venezuelan people.
In another deal, the PRC loaned Venezuela $300 million to start a regional airline, but as part of the deal, required
Venezuela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company.15 Protection of Chinese Nationals. As with the United States
and other Western countries, as China becomes more involved in business and other operations in Latin America, an
increasing number of its nationals will be vulnerable to hazards common to the region, such as kidnapping, crime,
protests, and related problems. The heightened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern jungle region of
Ecuador, for example, has been associated with a series of problems, including the takeover of an oilfield operated by the
Andes petroleum consortium in Tarapoa in November 2006, and protests in Orellana related to a labor dispute with the
Chinese company Petroriental in 2007 that resulted in the death of more than 35 police officers and forced the declaration
of a national state of emergency. In 2004, ethnic Chinese shopkeepers in Valencia and Maracay, Venezuela, became the
focus of violent protests associated with the Venezuelan recall referendum. As such incidents increase, the PRC will need
to rely increasingly on a combination of goodwill and fear to deter action against its personnel, as well as its influence with
Blocking the Consolidation

of U.S. Influence in the Region and Its Institutions.The rise of
China is intimately tied to the global economy through trade,
financial, and information flows, each of which is highly
dependent on global institutions and cooperation. Because of
this, some within the PRC leadership see the country's sustained
growth and development, and thus the stability of the regime,
threatened if an actor such as the United States is able to limit
that cooperation or block global institutions from supporting
Chinese interests. In Latin America, China's attainment of
observer status in the OAS in 2004 and its acceptance into the
IADB in 2009 were efforts to obtain a seat at the table in key
regional institutions, and to keep them from being used "against"
Chinese interests. In addition, the PRC has leveraged hopes of
access to Chinese markets by Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica to
secure bilateral free trade agreements, whose practical effect is
to move Latin America away from a U.S.-dominated trading block
(the Free Trade Area of the Americas) in which the PRC would
have been disadvantaged. Finally, the PRC benefits from the
challenges posed to the dominance of the United States in the
region by regimes such as Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia, and
its trade and investment with those regimes help to keep them
economically viable. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, the PRC
is careful to avoid association with the anti-U.S. rhetoric and
projects of those regimes, which could damage its more
strategically important relationship with the United States.
governments of the region, to resolve such problems when they occur.
China Cuban Relations

Chinese-Cuban relations strong now
Bonzn 5/31/13 (Yail Balloqui Bonzn is a writer for Juventud rebelde
The Newspaper of Cuban Youth )(Cuba and China Reinforce Relations
http://www.juventudrebelde.co.cu/international/2013-05-31/cuba-and-chinareinforce-relations/)
The Politburo member of the Communist Party of China (PCCh), Guo
Jinlong arrived to Cuba in the afternoon of May 30. He came is on an
official visit whose busy agenda is aimed at strengthening the
mutual ties between both nations. Jos Ramn Balaguer Cabrera,
member of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Cuban
Communist Party (PCC) welcomed Guo Jinlong at the Jos Mart
international airport and Guo Jinlong gratefully stressed that the
relationships between both countries, and also their both political
parties, are at the best moment in history. Guo Jinlong added that this
visit will promote the development of friendly mutual exchanges between
Havana and Beijing. Balaguer explained to the visitor those tasks Cuban
government and people are engaged in, which are focused on updating the
economic model, and the implementation of the Guidelines of the economic
and social policies of the 6th Congress of the PCC, as well as the agreements
achieved at the Conference of the Cuban Party. Balaguer said that the
implementation of the Guidelines is going well and it is the main
task of the Cuban Party at present. He said We are sure that we are
doing it well. He added that exchanges with China will support the
Cuban people, mainly in these moments when the United States is
promoting actions which interfere with the process of integration
that is carrying out in Latin America. According to the visit agenda, Guo
Jinlong will meet with Cuban authorities and take part in the opening of a
photovoltaic plant, and the signature of agreements.
Turns US Econ
Chinese economic decline tanks the US economy
Manning and Garrett 13. [Robert A., Senior Fellow in the Brent Scowcroft Center on
International Stability, Banning, Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow for Global Trends Strategic Foresight
Initiative, Does Beijing Have a Strategy? Chinas Alternative Futures Atlantic Council -- March 19 -http://www.acus.org/publication/does-beijing-have-strategy-chinas-alternative-futures]
The United States needs to avoid schadenfreude as China faces increasing

difficulties in the future and recognize that US interests are best served by a
successful, not failing, China, and that a successful China is more likely to
eschew extreme nationalism in favor of bilateral and global cooperation with the
United States. China experiencing a sharp economic decline and resulting
political and social instability, would likely have a devastating effect
on the global economy and on international stability and security. In short,
hoping for or seeking to promote failure or a sharp decline in Chinas
fortunes could lead to mutual assured economic destruction as w ell
as to global governance gridlock i n the face of mounting global challenges threatening
the prosperity and security of China, the United States and all other nations.
AT: Aff arguments
No economy take over

Their turns Latin American economies dont apply. Their
warrants are just myths
Based on evidence of the events taking place between China and Latin
America, Beijings goals in Latin America are: counterbalancing American
hegemony by enhancing multilateral relations; diversifying external
relations to diversify their export strength; and maintaining good relations
with major producers of oil (Venezuela), food (Argentina and Brazil) and
other raw materials (copper in Chile, nickel and cobalt in Cuba, and pulp in
Brazil).35 It is no accident that in March 2007, during the Inter-American
Development Banks annual meeting in Guatemala, the Banks President
Luis Alberto Moreno signed an agreement of understanding with Zhou
Xiaochuan, the head of the Peoples Bank of China, to formalize talks over
Beijings request to become a member. In November 2008, China became the
third Asian nation to join the bank, after South Korea and Japan. Even
former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asserts, China obviously is a
big player, a global economic player, and thats obviously a good thing for
Latin America.36 Hu Jintao was famously quoted in 2004 of saying that he
expected $100bn worth of Chinese investment in Latin America in the
following 10 years. Although the Chinese government later amended this to
mean $100bn in bilateral trade, not investment, trade between the two
regions eclipsed the $100bn mark less than 3 years after Hus initial
pronouncement. As a sign of its long-term intent, China has been negotiating
free trade agreements (FTAs) with individual Latin American countries
including 1) Chile, the first non-Asian country to sign a FTA with China in
2005; 2) Peru in November 2008; and 3) Costa Rica, under negotiation since
January 2009. World Bank economists report that the rise of China and India
is bestowing substantive net benefits on Latin America through higher
commodity prices, cheaper industrial inputs, and growing capital inflows.
Moreover, if Latin American governments adopt appropriate
investment and trade strategies, including negotiating bilateral freetrade agreements, Latin American exporters should be able to
successfully penetrate the burgeoning Asian commercial markets
and better integrate themselves into Asian-linked global production
networks. No wonder economists from the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), generally concur
with their World Bank counterparts that as seen through the Latin
American lens, China is closer to heaven than hell.37 A closer look at
three common perceptions of Chinas impact on emerging markets can help
clarify whether or not Latin American countries can benefit from the ongoing
shifting power equation in the world economy. Myth I: The main source of
Chinas competitive advantage is cheap labor. Reality: Low labor costs in
China are significant but the wide availability of capital, coupled
with very high productivity growth levels, are equally important in
explaining Chinas hard-to-beat competitiveness. Myth II: China has a

negative impact on FDI flows to other emerging markets. Reality: Most Latin
American economies do not compete for the same type of FDI that
China receives and Chinas investments in Latin America are only
the beginning of a trend that offers many opportunities for the
region. Myth III: Chinas rise benefits commodity exporting countries and
adversely affects light- manufacturing exporting nations. Reality: Chinas
rise offers opportunities in keeping and sustaining a
manufacturing sector.38 The fact is that China and Indias growth has not
been a zero-sum game for LAC [Latin American and Caribbean], but the
potential benefits are not being fully realized. It is crucial that LAC
countries take advantage of the growing presence of China and India
in world markets by adopting offensive strategies that facilitate
both the participation of LAC firms in global production networks
and their commercial presence in the two Asian economies markets.39
Since formally becoming a member of the Inter-American Development Bank
in 2009, China has already contributed $350 million to sustain
regional development. Comparisons of export structure are based
on the assumption that similar export structures will suggest the
highest potential for competition.40 An OECD study found: In general
terms . there is no trade competition between China and Latin
America. . . . [Moreover] this trade competition is even decreasing
rather than increasing over the recent period of time . Not
surprisingly, countries that export mainly commodities face lower competition
. . . Paraguay, Venezuela, Bolivia and Panama are those exhibiting the lowest
figures among 34 selected economies, i.e. those are the countries that suffer
less from Chinese trade competition. Brazil could be considered as an
intermediate case between Mexico and Venezuela. 41 Facing Chinas new
role in the Western Hemisphere, Latin American government[s] need to
boost general competitiveness by lowering country-cost factors and
emphasizing policies that promote innovation that favor the companies of
tomorrow. Investment in infrastructure that maximizes export comparative
advantages and facilitates deeper and faster regional trade and business
integration should be a priority, together with funding and support of
education and research institutions assimilating the needs and demands of
the markets.42 For most of Latin America, with the main exceptions of
Mexico and Central America, China has been an engine for export growth,
allowing exporters to diversify away from traditional markets in the north.
Beyond the fact that the regions exports to China are concentrated on
commodity products, the issue remains that Chinas economic and political
rise should be a wake-up call for more reforms in the region.43
Chinese investment will not hurt Latin American

economies
Hearn 2009 (Dr. Adrian H. Hearn is a research fellow at the School of
Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney) (June 2009 Cuba
and China: Lessons and Opportunities for the United States
http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/cuba-china-hearn.pdf)
Bilateral trade between Latin America and China skyrocketed from

$10 billion in 2000 to over $143 billion in 2008 (Xinhua 2009), and the
Chinese governments recent Policy Paper on Latin America and
the Caribbean signals its interest in deepening harmonious
relations with the region (Xinhua 2008). State-to-state international
engagement, an integral component of the so-called Beijing Consensus, is attractive to
the Latin American left in part because of its inherent endorsement
of national sovereignty and state-coordinated development . In 1960
Cuba became the first Latin American country to recognize the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), and
despite the tensions produced by the Sino-Soviet split, their shared commitment to state supremacy for
Chinese enterprises have

developed a broad range of industrial initiatives in Cuba.
Agricultural cooperation has focused on the production of rice, soy,
sorghum, and maize, and Cuba exports 400,000 tonnes of raw
sugar annually to China. Scientific exchange has developed in
earthquake detection, solar energy research, cancer treatment,
and vaccine production. In 2004, Hu Jintao pledged to invest $500 million in Cubas nickel
half a century has provided fertile ground for
cooperation.
sector, and although Venezuela emerged as the leading financier of the Las Camariocas ferro-nickel
plant, China has since consumed 20,000 tons of the resource (Cheng 2009:1). The Chinese oil company
Sinopec has teamed up with Cubas CUPET to develop onshore operations in Pinar del Rio (CRS 2008:24),
while the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is negotiating exploration of Cuban deposits in
the Gulf of Mexico. In 2007, 10,000 Chinese tourists visited Cuba, and as discussed below, electronics
China often
pays for developing country natural resources with trade credits,
construction equipment, infrastructure upgrading, and technical
training rather than hard currency (Robles 2005). The significance of
such exchanges does not lie in their capacity to generate shortterm commerce, but rather in the more encompassing goal of
building stable alliances, political trust, and economic growth over
the long term. This is facilitated by direct collaboration between
the Cuban and Chinese governments, whose state-owned
enterprises do not duplicate, undercut, or compete with each
manufacturing and transport infrastructure have
emerged as key areas of expansion.
other. Even Chinas more strictly commercial goals in Cuba, such as

filling Cuban homes and stores with Chinese electronic appliances,
have been accomplished in close collaboration with the Cuban
state. Cuban officials argue that the state is more capable than the market
of developing human capital and protecting the social
commitments of the health and education systems. Chinese officials
are familiar with the role of public services in building the
legitimacy of the state, and have designed collaborative industrial
projects in Cuba that outwardly emphasize a combination of
cultural, economic, and social outcomes. The Chinese governments awareness of
Cuban political culture is an integral element of its commercial success in Cuba, while by contrast, as
Eusebio Leal has said, well never allow McDonalds to hang its billboards in Old Havana (interview, 29
April 2002). During Hu Jintaos visit to Havana in November 2008, the headline of the newspaper
Granma read, Example of Transparence and Pacific Cooperation (Granma International 2008:1).
Chinese officials maintain that their objective in

Cuba and Latin America is mutually beneficial economic partnership
and southsouth cooperation (Jiang 2008, Robles 2005, Yang 2008). Diplomatic
engagement with Cuban political culture has clearly advanced
Chinas commercial goals. While some analysts identify state leadership in developing
Adopting a similar tone,
countries as an integral and valuable component of alliance capitalism (Dunning 1997), critics argue
that state-led industrial models, such as those advocated by Cuba and China, threaten human rights
and democratic governance (CLATF 2006, Eisenman 2006, Lam 2004, Santoli et al. 2004). In his
testimony before the House Committee on International Relations in April 2005, U.S. Congressman Dan
Burton warned that, Beijings influence could easily unravel the regions hard-won, U.S.-backed reforms
to fight against corruption, human rights abuses, increase government transparency and combat
intellectual property violations (Burton 2005:7). Similarly, Joshua Kurlantzick argues that poor
transparency has enabled China to develop partnerships with countries that are hostile to the United
States while maintaining privacy from international rights and monitoring agencies (2008:199). Given the
political climate in Washington, an opportunity exists for the United States to engage with both sides of
this debate, and to assert a regional policy that enables more genuine forms of information sharing,
responds to local needs, and sustains geopolitical balance. As the Congressional Research Service has
advised, the United States should work harder to ensure that U.S. democratization and human rights
values are not seen by other countries as encumbrances and prohibitions placed in the way of, but
instead as things that ultimately will improve, their economic progress (CRS 2008:15). Given the
political climate in Havana,
Cuba is a logical starting point for advancing this
policy. Its successful implementation, however, will require a more detailed awareness of the Cuban
governments approach to cooperation with foreign enterprises. Below I discuss two prominent aspects of
bilateral engagement that have underpinned Chinas industrial relations with Cuba.
No risk China will take over in Latin American economies

Broda No Date (Professor Broda's research addresses issues in
international trade, finance, and macroeconomics. He currently is a faculty
research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, associate editor
of the Journal of Development Economics, and the James S. Kemper
Foundation Scholar for 2006. His papers have been published in the American
Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and the Journal of
International Economics.) (Chinas Impact on Latin America
http://www.chicagobooth.edu/news/2008-02-29_broda.aspx)
South America has so far experienced "little pain and lots of gain"
from China's emergence as an economic superpower , but the continent will
face growing competition from the Asian giant in the coming years. This was the message associate
professor of economics Christian Broda delivered in a talk on China's impact on Latin America economies
as part of the Global Leadership Series, held at the Brazilian Capital Market Institute on February 21. The
thanks to Chinas demand

boosting prices for the region's commodities while the "little pain" is a
consequence of South American manufacturing having little overlap
with China's, meaning little direct competition. Other boons to Latin America
"lots of gain" for South America identified by Broda is
have been low world interest rates as a result of the high Chinese savings rate and China's role in
stimulating global growth. "China and India contribute 40 percent of all world growth," said Broda. "And
high world growth explains about half of the region's growth." But he drew a clear distinction between
China's impact on South America and that on Mexico and Central America, which have faced far more
direct competition from Chinese manufacturing. Using the example of textiles Broda demonstrated how
that region's manufacturing sector has been hollowed out by Chinese competition, especially in Mexico
where the advantages of NAFTA have been eroded since China joined the World Trade Organization.
Much of the positive scenario for South America will remain in place
in the medium run. China's growth rates will likely dampen down,
but its economy is now so large that demand for South American
commodities such as oil, iron ore, copper, and meat will continue to
grow strongly.
No Aggression
Ikenberry concludes that Chinese influence in Latin
America is good
China has been rising in Latin America since the twenty-first century
for two reasons. The first is the relative decline in the economic
and political pre-eminence of the United States after its brief
moment of unchallenged power at the end of the cold warThe
second factor is that many Latin American countries have become
more self-confident and bent on asserting their diplomatic
independence.14 As the United States comparative position erodes and
China gets more powerful, some realists predict that, The result of these
developments will be tension, distrust, and conflict, the typical features of a
power transition. But for G. John Ikenberry, professor at Princeton
University, The rise of China does not have to trigger a wrenching
hegemonic transition . The U.S.-Chinese power transition can be
very different from those of the past because China faces an
international order that is fundamentally different from those that
past rising states confrontedTodays Western order, in short, is hard
to overturn and easy to join.15 Similarly, Fareed Zakaria also argues that,
the greater the openness of the global system is, the better the
prospects for trade, commerce, contact, pluralism and liberty. Any
strategy that is likely to succeed in todays world will be one that
has the active support and participation of many countriesthere
are many good signs in the world today. The most significant rising
powerChinadoes not seem to seek to overturn the established
order (as have many newly rising powers in the past) but rather to succeed
within it.16 There are encouraging signs that the U.S. leadership shares
Zakarias optimism that the interconnectivity of the global system serves a
tempering function to Chinas increasing power. It fact, as early as
September 21, 2005, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert
B. Zoellick called on China to act as a responsible stakeholder in
global affairs. Later, when hosting Chinese President Hu Jintao in
Washington in April 2006, former President Bush said, The United States
and China are two nations divided by a vast ocean yet connected through
a global economy that has created opportunity for both peoples. The
United States welcomes the emergence of a China that is peaceful
and prosperous, and that supports international institutions.17
Since then, China has tried to play the role of a responsible
stakeholder in global affairs, particularly in Latin America. On the
international level, Chinas rising levels of wealth and education,
improvement of property rights and the establishment of the rule
of law greatly contribute to the global political and economic
development.
Chinese influence is peaceful. Even US officials like

Chinese involvement
For Daniel Deudney and G. John Ikenberry, the fact that autocracies such as
China are capitalist has profound implications for the nature of their
international interests that point toward integration and accommodation in
the future. The dependence of autocratic capitalist states on foreign trade
and investment means that they have a fundamental interest in
maintaining an open, rule-based economic system . . . In the case of China,
because of its extensive dependence on industrial exports, the WTO may act
as a vital bulwark against protectionist tendencies in importing states.18
While some argue that a globally-ascending China is a revisionist
power seeking important changes in the international system,
most agree that China seeks the desired change in a patient,
prudent, and peaceful fashion. Americans who deal in foreign affairs
especially appreciate the fact that Chinese strategic thinking has
moved away from notions of a global class conflict and violent
revolution. Instead, today's China emphasizes a peaceful rising in
global influence while seeking a harmonious world. Former
Secretary of State Zbigniew Brzezinski asserts that the Chinese emphasis
on harmony can serve as a useful point of departure for U.S.Chinese relations during the Obama presidency. Thus, it is a task
that President-elect Barack Obama who is a conciliator at heart should
find congenial, and which President Hu Jintao who devised the
concept of a harmonious world should welcome. It is a mission
worthy of the two countries with the most extraordinary potential for
shaping our collective future.19 In Latin America, Chinas
engagements have been mostly politically neutral. Despite its
disagreements with the United States about many issues, Beijing has
adopted a low-key approach and managed to avoid any public
confrontation with the United States in the Western Hemisphere .
China is comparatively better than other countries that

have influence in the region Russia proves
20 Nevertheless, China's growing clout is hard to miss. At the APEC summit

in 2008, all eyes were on Hu Jintao as he declared that China now wants
to show it is a responsible stakeholder in the region, according to
Dan Erikson, a specialist in ChinaLatin American relations from the InterAmerican Dialogue.21 Compared with Russias involvement in Latin
America, which includes holding joint military exercises with
Venezuela and selling arms to the region, Chinas engagement has
been decidedly dovish. Although the neo-conservatives loudly worry about

Chinas close relations with Venezuela, [the] oil interest actually plays a
rather limited role in SinoVenezuelan ties in the foreseeable future.22 This is
because while China is obviously keen to enter into oil agreements with
Venezuela, Beijing has shown no intention to be drawn into any
tensions between Hugo Chavez and the U.S. government. Despite the
fact that the China-Latin America trade still amounts to much less than
China's trade with the U.S. ($560bn) or the EU ($250bn), recent trends are
significant. Chinas total two-way trade with Latin America shot up from just
$12.2 billion in 2000 to $102 billion in 2007. China is buying more and more
Latin American commodities like oil, minerals, and soya. This kind of
increase economic integration carries risks: the danger in the coming
years is that fragile Asian economies might look to exclusive trading
arrangements or move to protect domestic markets, partly as a result of
citizen demands.23 Consequently, it becomes ever more important
that China embraces its role as a responsible stakeholder and
avoid the temptations of protectionism and exclusivity. Some Latin
American countries have negatively responded to Chinas economic
penetration. For instance, some Brazilians complain that the Brazil-China
trade relation has been unbalanced. Brazil is further frustrated that neither
China nor Russia supported its Security Council bid.24 However, it is
undeniable that Chinas purchases of commodity greatly
contributed to Brazil and Latin Americas economic growth in the
last decade .
Chinese military presence in Latin America wont escalate

theyre rational
Ellis 2011 (R. EVAN ELLIS is a professor of national security studies,
modeling, gaming, and simulation with the Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies, with a research focus on Latin Americas relationships with external
actors, including China, Russia, and Iran. )(August 2011China-Latin America
Military Engagement: Good will, good business, and strategic position
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1077.pdf Pgs. 9-10)
As noted previously, the PRCs pursuit of military objectives in the
region is subordinate to its broader national objectives. Where the
two conflict, the exact balance will reflect the perceptions and self-confidence
of the Chinese leadership and its propensity for risk-taking, factors which
continue to evolve with each successive generation of Chinese leadership.
Direct forms of security assistance, for example, may support the
objective of protecting Chinese companies and resource flows, yet
undermine the more important strategic objective of preserving access by
the PRC to Western technology and markets. At the very least, China has
strong incentives to portray all 10 military interactions with Latin
American states in a way that avoids an appearance of
threatening the United States, so as to minimize the risk of
damage to its broader objectives. In many cases, this goal not only
will impact how China represents its activities, but how it structures them.
Gifts of military medical capabilities or logistics gear, for example, may be
preferable to selling or donating more lethal end items because the former
generates similar institutional good will and contacts, while appearing less
threatening. In general, as this section has suggested, the course taken by
Chinese military engagement with Latin America in the medium or long term
is likely to differ significantly from that witnessed with respect to Soviet
military activities in the region during the Cold War. In general, the PRC is
more likely to refrain from overtly provocative activities, such as
the establishment of bases with a significant Chinese presence,
overt military assistance to groups trying to overthrow a regime,
unilateral military intervention in the region in a contested
leadership situation, or participation in anti-US military alliances.
No risk of aggression from china they are only seeking

commercial ties with Latin America
Nelson Cunningham of McLarty Associates argued that from a strategic
perspective, Chinas interests appear to be purely commercial This
is distinct from Russias ideologically-based military and diplomatic
alliance with the government of Venezuela, described by
Cunningham as aimed at balancing US influence in the region
Latin American countries may have initially pursued the Chinese
market to serve as a strategic counterweight to the regions
historical commercial and political dependence on the United
States Yet the relationship has not necessarily fulfilled these
expectations For example, popular accusations have been leveled against
Brazilian President Lula da Silva that China took advantage of him through
both the commercial arrangements between the two countries and in
negotiations over Chinas accession to the WTO Building a strategic
relationship with China is challenging not only because of low levels of
Chinese investment in the region, but also because the investment that
does occur generally employs Chinese laborers and materials brought over
for specific infrastructure projects While Chinas lack of human rights and
environmental restrictions makes it an easier commercial partner as
compared to the United States and Europe, the relationship lacks the deep
cultural kinship that exists between Latin America and these other two areas
of the world Within this context, Cunningham posited that the
relationship between China and Latin America will remain strictly
commercial, but recommended that the United States be vigilant regarding
the way that increasing commercial ties can transform into political
alliances In order for the United States to maintain its privileged
relationship with the region, it must compete with China at the commercial
level This consists of lowering trade barriers to Latin American exports and
expanding preexisting commercial and corporate ties
Oil dependence
China isnt looking to invest in Latin American oil
companies

international relations, and US policy in the Western hemisphere)
(Jeffrey Davidow is the president of the Institute of the Americas Before
assuming that position in 2003, he served for 34 years in the US
Foreign Service, with postings as assistant secretary of state for the
Western Hemisphere and ambassador to Venezuela and Mexico He is the
author of The U.S. and Mexico: The Bear and the Porcupine, a book
outlining the nature of the complicated relationship)(January 2011 China,
Latin America, and the United States: The New Triangle
Dr. Sun hongbo of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed to strong
Chinese economic growth, national oil companies, government, and financial
organizationsespecially the Chinese Development bankas the four
elements driving Chinese energy cooperation with Latin America A new
trend emerging from this mix is the increased cooperation between
financial organizations and national oil companies Sun listed five models
that China employs for cooperation: 1) a technical service model, 2) a joint
development model, 3) an infrastructure-building participation model, 4) a
loans for oil model, and 5) a bio-fuels technology joint research model
These models can be seen across various countries with which China is
cooperating (See Figure 6) For example, in Mexico, Chinese companies
had provided nearly $1 billion in engineering services for oil projects by the
end of 2007 Sun also cited successful joint ventures in Colombia and
Ecuador including the Andes Petroleum purchase of all of
Encanas assets in Ecuadoras areas of successful cooperation
In addition to the China Brazil loan-for-oil agreement, China will also
cooperate with Brazil in the development of renewable energy
sources such as biofuels However, given that Latin America only
accounted for 758 percent of Chinas oil imports in 2008, Sun
doubted that Latin America would play a strategic role in
guaranteeing Chinas future energy security While opportunities
for growth and investment are present for both China and Latin
America, Chinas national oil companies are confronting risks of
social conflict at the local level, political instability, intense
competition, environmental clauses, transportation costs, and the
uncertain US response to Chinas presence in the region Sun
also indicated that Latin America can still be viewed as a strategic
alternative for China to diversify its oil imports
China-Taiwan War
No chance of a turn Chinese-Taiwan relations are
improving
Hsiang 9. [Dr. Antonio, Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of
Technology, Taiwan, "China rising in Latin America: More opportunities than

Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -- Vol 1
Issue 1 -- November -- digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
On the last day of 2008, President Hu Jintao offered six proposals to
promote peaceful development of cross-strait relationships in a
speech to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the mainlands Message
to Compatriots in Taiwan. The six points Hu announced included: 1)
an end to political confrontation under the one China principle, 2)
economic cooperation, 3) promotion of Chinese culture, 4)
intensified personal exchange with the Democratic Progressive
Party, 5) adequate arrangement for Taiwan to participate in
international organizations, and 6) a peace accord. According to The
United Daily News, one of the biggest newspapers in Taiwan, the six
proposals put forward by Hu Jintao on the cross-straits relationship
are positive and explicit. In fact, most Taiwanese hold positive
opinions about the six proposals and see goodwill and
understanding in them. More importantly, Hus remarks signal that
Taiwans aspiration for participation in international activities, or
greater international space in Taiwans parlance, could be
realized through cross-trait negotiations.50 Until Ma was elected as
Taiwans president in March 2008, Taipei and Beijing had frequently accused
each other of using checkbook diplomacy to lure the others allies in a
long-running battle for diplomatic supremacy on the world stage. This battle
was particularly fierce in Latin America and seemed like a lose-lose
proposition for both China and Taiwan. As He Li correctly points out, in the
long run, China is more likely to leverage its economic clout in the region to
support its political preference, pressing countries to fall in line on its top
foreign policy priority: its claims over Taiwan.51 But Beijing also
understands well that Chinas prospective success at sweeping
Taiwan out from Latin America may force its hand from a de facto
to a de jure independence. Since Ma Ying-jeou took office, relations
across the Taiwan Strait have been tremendously improved. Some
potential candidates looking to switch their diplomatic recognition from
Taipei to Beijing, such as Paraguay and Nicaragua, have been disappointed
because China seems more concerned about sustaining
harmonious relations with Taiwan. In return, President Ma has
carefully responded to Beijings goodwill. He told the New York Times, we
are not dissatisfied with the fact they did not mention Taiwan, referring to
Hillary Clintons trip to Beijing. All eyes are now on Latin America to see
whether the diplomatic truce between China and Taiwan can be sustained.
52
Chinese soft power bad

Chinese soft power is perceived as positive Venezuela
proves
Ellis 2011 (R. EVAN ELLIS is a professor of national security studies,
modeling, gaming, and simulation with the Center for Hemispheric Defense
Studies, with a research focus on Latin Americas relationships with external
actors, including China, Russia, and Iran. )(2011 Chinese Soft Power in Latin
America: A Case Study http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latinamerica.html)
In general, the bases of Chinese soft power differ from those of the United
States, leading analysts to underestimate that power when they compare the
PRC to the United States on those factors that are the sources of U.S.
influence, such as the affinity of the world's youth for American music, media,
and lifestyle, the widespread use of the English language in business and
technology, or the number of elites who have learned their professions in U.S.
institutions. It is also important to clarify that soft power is based on
perceptions and emotion (that is, inferences), and not necessarily on
objective reality. Although China's current trade with and investment
position in Latin America are still limited compared to those of the
United States,3 its influence in the region is based not so much on the
current size of those activities, but rather on hopes or fears in the region
of what it could be in the future. Because perception drives soft
power, the nature of the PRC impact on each country in Latin
America is shaped by its particular situation, hopes, fears, and
prevailing ideology. The "Bolivarian socialist" regime of Hugo Chvez in
Venezuela sees China as a powerful ally in its crusade against Western
"imperialism," while countries such as Peru, Chile, and Colombia view the PRC
in more traditional terms as an important investor and trading partner within
the context of global free market capitalism. The core of Chinese soft
power in Latin America, as in the rest of the world, is the widespread
perception that the PRC, because of its sustained high rates of economic
growth and technology development, will present tremendous business
opportunities in the future, and will be a power to be reckoned with
globally. In general, this perception can be divided into seven areas: hopes
for future access to Chinese markets hopes for future Chinese investment
influence of Chinese entities and infrastructure in Latin America hopes for the
PRC to serve as a counterweight to the United States and Western
institutions China as a development model affinity for Chinese culture and
work ethic China as "the wave of the future." In each of these cases, the
soft power of the PRC can be identified as operating through distinct
sets of actors: the political leadership of countries, the business
community, students and youth, and the general population.
China DA Answers
Defense
Non Unique
China isnt expanding their sphere of influence any time
soon

Professor Chai Yu of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences stated
that while Latin Americas trade partnership with China is
increasingly important, its not enough According to Yu, Chinas
development model is unique in that GDP growth is driven by
consumption, foreign and domestic investment, and to a lesser
extent, exports Between 1993 and 2009, the majority of Chinas imports
and exports, 599 percent and 465 percent, respectively, were with
trading partners in Asia Latin America, meanwhile, only accounted for
69 percent of Chinas imports and 5 percent of its exports Brazil and
Chile have been the principal Latin American beneficiaries of Chinas growth
and have moved up in the ranking of Chinas import shares However,
Asian nations still account for the majority of Chinas import
shares (See Figure 1) China is currently facing a number of economic
challenges In 2008, a new labor law expanding rights for workers
increased labor costs by upwards of 40 percent The renminbi has
appreciated by 21 percent since 2005 Yu predicted that as a result, there
would be a decrease in labor-seeking investment and an increase in
market-seeking investment by transnational corporations The
WTO accession process will further limit Chinas exports for at least the next
ten years At the domestic level, these challenges are contending with
Chinas attempts to make the results of economic development felt more
broadly by its population through what Yu labeled people friendly or
inclusive development Yu emphasized that Chinas inclusive
development model presents an opportunity, not a threat; within this
framework Chinas task is to promote a stronger relationship with Latin
America The case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) economic integration with China is instructive In the early
1990s, the ASEAN countries were roughly the same size as Latin America
and expressed similar concerns in the face of Chinas economic
development The 2007 free trade agreement implemented between ASEAN
and China diminished many of these concerns as the ASEAN countries began
to benefit from increased natural resource exports Yu suggested that with

increased cooperation, China and Latin Americas relationship could parallel
that of ASEAN and China Yu responded to concerns about Chinas natural
resource-dominated commercial relationship with Latin America She
framed this phenomenon within the context of the countrys economic
relationship with its neighbors and the United States as well as Chinas own
strategies for development As the hub of the International
Production Network, China imports intermediary products from its
neighborsJapan and Koreaand exports final products to the
US and Europe At home, its principal priorities are employing
its massive population in industry and stimulating innovation
China is therefore focused on addressing its own situation of
underdevelopment However, Yu remarked that in the future, both China
and the region could benefit from preferential trade agreements and Chinas
installation of factories in Latin America that produce for local markets as
well as export abroad
China influence in Latin America will not surpass Americas

Valencia 6/24/13 (Robert Valencia is a New York-based political analyst
and a contributing writer for Global Voices) (US and China: The Fight for
Latin America http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/06/24/us-and-chinafight-latin-america)
The United States hasnt lost Latin America, and is unlikely to lose
it completely. It is still the regions top trade partner. The United
States has recently signed free-trade agreements with Colombia and
Panama, and maintains other trade agreements with Peru, Chile, and
Mexico. Central American and several Caribbean countries rely upon
U.S. military cooperation in an attempt to curtail drug trade.
Nevertheless, the post 9/11 years severely eroded U.S.-Latin American
relations as the Bush administration focused heavily on the war on terror,
often ignoring issues in Latin America.
No link
No link china isnt even interested in cuba
Cuba established diplomatic relations with the PRC in 1960
However, when Cuba decided to strengthen its alliance with the
USSR and as the relationship between the two communist powers
deteriorated, Cuba no longer served Chinas interests In the
1970s, China turned back to Mexico as an outpost for its foray into
Latin America and as a training ground for Chinese specialists in Latin
American affairs Today, those academics and diplomats are the
core actors influencing Chinese strategy towards the region
Between 1974 and 1986, Ley noted instances of learning and cooperation
through traditional Chinese medicine, donations of corn seed, and education
about massive job creation, using the Mexican maquiladora (factory) model
as an example
China isnt looking to invest in Latin American oil

companies

Dr. Sun hongbo of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed to strong
Chinese economic growth, national oil companies, government, and financial
organizationsespecially the Chinese Development bankas the four
elements driving Chinese energy cooperation with Latin America A new

trend emerging from this mix is the increased cooperation between
financial organizations and national oil companies Sun listed five models
that China employs for cooperation: 1) a technical service model, 2) a joint
development model, 3) an infrastructure-building participation model, 4) a
loans for oil model, and 5) a bio-fuels technology joint research model
These models can be seen across various countries with which China is
cooperating (See Figure 6) For example, in Mexico, Chinese companies
had provided nearly $1 billion in engineering services for oil projects by the
end of 2007 Sun also cited successful joint ventures in Colombia and
Ecuador including the Andes Petroleum purchase of all of
Encanas assets in Ecuadoras areas of successful cooperation
In addition to the China Brazil loan-for-oil agreement, China will also
cooperate with Brazil in the development of renewable energy
sources such as biofuels However, given that Latin America only
accounted for 758 percent of Chinas oil imports in 2008, Sun
doubted that Latin America would play a strategic role in
guaranteeing Chinas future energy security While opportunities
for growth and investment are present for both China and Latin
America, Chinas national oil companies are confronting risks of
social conflict at the local level, political instability, intense
competition, environmental clauses, transportation costs, and the
uncertain US response to Chinas presence in the region Sun
also indicated that Latin America can still be viewed as a strategic
alternative for China to diversify its oil imports
Most of Chinas influence in Latin America has been with

none of the three target countries
Costa 6-24 (international affairs at Georgetown University's School of Foreign
Service, U.S. Chins Relations: Should Washington Be Concerned Over Growing
Chinese Trade in Latin America? http://www.policymic.com/articles/48673/u-s-
chins-relations-should-washington-be-concerned-over-growing-chinese-tradein-latin-america, 6/24/13)
Yet how worried should the U.S. be over these figures? One thing
to take into consideration is the fact that the U.S. still retains a
comfortable lead against China in absolute terms: Washington
exchanges $800 billion in goods and services with Latin America
annually, more than three times the region's trade with China.
Moreover, the fact that most of China's confirmed investments in
Latin America target the extraction of natural resources raises
questions about the sustainability of China's investment in the
region. It means that a sudden change in commodity prices could
have serious consequences for Chinese foreign direct investment
into the region. Finally, according to ECLAC data, most of China's
trade with Latin America has been concentrated in a small group
of countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. This is a key fact
that must be taken into consideration when evaluating China's

involvement in the region as a whole.
China is not increasing ties in Venezuela and Cuba now
The Economist 6/6/13 (Why has China snubbed Cuba and Venezuela?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/06/economistexplains-3)
XI JINPING'S first visit to Latin America and the Caribbean as Chinas
president, from May 31st to June 6th, took him tantalisingly close to
Beijings strongest ideological allies in the region, Cuba and
Venezuela. Yet he steered clear of both of them. Instead of visiting
Cuba, as his predecessor Hu Jintao did on his first presidential trip to
the region, Mr Xi stopped off in an English-speaking Caribbean
nation, Trinidad and Tobago, which (as if to rub it in) is only a short
hop from Caracas. He then travelled to Costa Rica and Mexico
(pictured)two countries that are at least as much a part of
Americas orbit as Cuba and Venezuela are part of the Beijing
Consensus. Why this snub to two friendly nations that have been lavished
with Chinese largesse in recent years, especially at a time when both are
struggling to come to terms with the death in March of Hugo Chvez, the
Cuba- and China-loving Venezuelan leader? The short answer is: for
simplicitys sake. Visits to Cuba and Venezuela might well have raised
distracting questions when Mr Xi meets Barack Obama in Southern
California on June 7th, and neither socialist government was likely to
express publicly any offence at being left off the itinerary. The beauty of
having a chequebook as thick as Chinas is that if you give your friends the
cold shoulder, you can always mollify them with money. That may be why, on
June 6th, Venezuelas oil minister announced that he had secured an extra $4
billion from China to drill for oil, in addition to $35 billion already provided by
Beijing. Not quite in the same league, but significant nonetheless, the Havana
Times reported this week that China was also planning to invest in Cuban golf
courses, the islands latest fad. However, as our story on Mr Xis visit to
Latin America points out, he may have had other reasons for picking
the destinations that he did. Firstly, he may be trying to respond to
Mr Obamas pivot to Asia by showing that China is developing its
own sphere of influence in Americas backyard. Chinas business
relationship with Latin America gets less attention than its dealings with
Africa, but in terms of investment, it is much bigger. According to Enrique
Dussel, a China expert at Mexicos National Autonomous University, Latin
America and the Caribbean were collectively the second largest recipient of
Chinese foreign direct investment between 2000-2011, after Hong Kong. In
terms of funding, Kevin Gallagher of Boston University says China has
provided more loans to Latin America since 2005 than the World Bank and
the Inter-American Development Bank combined. The visits to Mexico and
Costa Rica may also represent a pivot of sorts in terms of the type of
economic relationship China has with Latin America. Up until now, China has
hoovered up the regions commodities, importing soya, copper, iron, oil and
other raw materials, particularly from Brazil, Chile and Venezuela, while
flooding the region with its manufactured goods. But its relations with Mexico,
a rival in low-cost manufacturing, have been frosty: China accounts for only
about 0.05% of Mexican foreign direct investment, and it exports ten times as
much to Mexico as it imports. But as wages in China have increased and high
energy prices have raised the cost of shipping goods from China to America,
Beijing may be looking for bases such as Mexico and Costa Rica where it can
relocate Chinese factories and benefit from free-trade agreements with the
United States. This idea thrills the Mexican government, but does it pose an
immediate threat to Venezuela and Cuba? Probably not: China will continue
to need their staunch ideological support over issues like Taiwan, for
one thing. But it does suggest that Chinas economic interest in the region is
broadening, especially along the Pacific coast. If that proves to be the case,
Cuba and Venezuela, deprived of the charismatic Chvez to court Beijing on
their behalf, will have to work hard to stay relevant.
No Impact
No Chinese take over in Latin America the US and EU are
still more influential
ONeil 2012 (Shannon K. O'Neil is a Senior Fellow for Latin America
Studies)(October 26th Chinas Economic Role in Latin America

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2012/10/26/chinas-economic-role-in-latin-america/)
There is much talk of Chinas escalating economic influence in Latin
America. But its worth looking at what has (and hasnt) actually
happened in the three main ways that China interacts with the
regions economies: trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and loans
(from state-owned banks). Trade is the most visible and important
connection. Over the last several years, goods flowing back and forth have
increased some 30 percent per year, bringing todays total to roughly US$250
billion. This trade leans in Chinas favor, with a deficit (nearly all with Mexico)
of nearly US$100 billion. While sizable numbers, this is still just a quarter of
Latin Americas trade with the United States. And it appears to be
leveling off, suggesting that China wont overtake the United States
as the regions primary trading partner anytime soon . This trade is
also quite concentrated. Exports to China come primarily from Brazil,
Chile, Peru, and Argentina, and are mainly raw materials (copper, iron ore,
lead, tin, soya, and sugar). Of the goods China sends east nearly half go to
Mexicoa mix of consumer goods and capital goods (equipment for
production). Trade with China has expanded dramatically over the past
decade. But it is worth remembering that it both started from a low base and
is unevenly distributedaffecting a few countries significantly and others
very little. Chinese foreign direct investment has been the focus of
numerous high-level state visits and has been much touted in the press.
Money flowing from China to Latin America has increasedtotaling
some $10 billion in 2010. Still, this continues to be less than the
US$25 billion coming from the United States or the US$60 billion
from European countries, and is roughly equal to US$10 billion
heading from Latin American countries into their neighbors. The vast
majority of Chinese funds head to the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin
Islandssuggesting tax considerations instead of productive investments.
The money that is invested remains heavily concentrated on raw materials
and energymostly in Brazil, and some in Peru. Though promises continue,
so far Chinese FDI has yet to make a serious regional mark. Finally
loans are a means of engaging Latin American nations. These have increased
to countries such as Venezuela, Brazil, and Ecuador, nearly all in exchange for
oil. These tens of billions of dollars comprise a decent portion of Chinas
development loans abroad, and outpace Latin American resources from the
World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the United States ExportImport Bank. Still, since most countries have easy access to world financial
markets, most financing comes through non-governmental sources. Overall
economic ties are indeed increasing. But these trade, FDI, and loan numbers
suggest the rise is slower than either the cheerleaders or naysayers might
suggest. The next question is whether these links are good or bad for the
region. On the good side, trade with China has helped spur Latin
Americas economic growth. Increased ties with China have played a
big part of the strong (by Latin American standards) GDP growth of last
decade. Especially for Brazil, Argentina, and Peru, connections to the worlds
economic engine were important in wake of the world financial crisis.
Comparing Brazils and Mexicos growth rates in 2010 tells that story
and the positive role that China can and does play. Chinas trade
has also benefited Latin Americas consumers. The big story of the last
two decades is the rise of a middle class in many Latin American countries.
Achieving a middle class lifestyle relies in part on higher incomes,
but also on greater purchasing power. Access to more goods of
better quality and at lower prices, has changed the lives of many.
Chinas sales of clothing, electronics, and even cars have benefited
those in the middle and lower middle ranks.
Chinese presence in Latin America doesnt do anything.

The US is better off engaging with its neighbors
Nelson Cunningham of McLarty Associates argued that from a strategic
perspective, Chinas interests appear to be purely commercial This is
distinct from Russias ideologically-based military and diplomatic alliance
with the government of Venezuela, described by Cunningham as aimed at
balancing US influence in the region Latin American countries may
have initially pursued the Chinese market to serve as a strategic
counterweight to the regions historical commercial and political
dependence on the United States Yet the relationship has not
necessarily fulfilled these expectations For example, popular
accusations have been leveled against Brazilian President Lula da Silva
that China took advantage of him through both the commercial
arrangements between the two countries and in negotiations over
Chinas accession to the WTO Building a strategic relationship
with China is challenging not only because of low levels of Chinese
investment in the region, but also because the investment that
does occur generally employs Chinese laborers and materials
brought over for specific infrastructure projects While Chinas lack
of human rights and environmental restrictions makes it an easier

commercial partner as compared to the United States and Europe, the
relationship lacks the deep cultural kinship that exists between
Latin America and these other two areas of the world Within this
context, Cunningham posited that the relationship between China and
Latin America will remain strictly commercial, but recommended that the
United States be vigilant regarding the way that increasing
commercial ties can transform into political alliances In order for the
United States to maintain its privileged relationship with the region, it
must compete with China at the commercial level This consists of
lowering trade barriers to Latin American exports and expanding preexisting
commercial and corporate ties
AT: I/L Not zero sum

Trade is not zero-sum. Lifting the embargo can strengthen
US-Sino-Latin American relations
Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney) (June 2009 Cuba
and China: Lessons and Opportunities for the United States
As U.S. firms weather the recession and adapt to a global economic environment
skeptical of short-term
partnerships with Cuba could offer some stable and

constructive solutions. In March 2009 the Obama administration approved wider legal
investments,
channels for U.S. agricultural and medical exports to Cuba under the Omnibus Appropriations Measure
(P.L. 111-8), providing a foundation for future industrial engagement. Likely next steps could include the
authorization of trade in farm equipment, medical apparatus, and telecommunications products, niches
already benefited from Chinese trade credits . Such steps would permit U.S.
firms to compete and collaborate with Chinese counterparts in
Cuba, and as indicated by several recent legislative proposals in
Congress, would advance U.S. strategic interests if extended to the
oil sector. It is generally acknowledged that the U.S. embargo on Cuba has not achieved its
that have
economic or political goals. Even Cuban dissidents received the 2006 report of the Commission for a Free
Cuba with skepticism, criticizing it for presuming what a Cuban transition must be, and affirming that
only we Cubans, of our own volition...can decide issues of such singular importance (quoted in Sullivan
2009:20). A greater awareness of local socio-political dynamics in Cuba
is sorely needed, and would be achieved by closer contact both at
the interpersonal level, a prospect favored by 55.2 percent of Cuban Americans (FIU 2007),
and through more
interactive and coordinated commercial relations. Since 2002 the Unites States has
in September
2008, the Cuban government expressed its readiness for deeper
trade relations (Sullivan 2009:24). Rather than dismiss this prospect on political grounds,
economic openings and industrial coordination could be used to
promote democratic outcomes. As the Inter-American Dialogue has concluded, a
democratic society in Cuba should be the objective of U.S.
engagement, not a precondition (IAD 2009:10). A policy outlook that
engages Cuba as a stakeholder in the prevailing world system
would advance negotiations and resolutions on long-contended
political disputes. Encouraging rather than impeding Cubas
participation in the Organization of American States and other
multilateral institutions would be welcomed in the region (IAD
2009:10), and would encourage much-needed multilateral dialogue
on human rights, transparency, and sovereignty. This would also
build international familiarity with the Cuban governments
industrial partnerships with China, economic objectives, and
methods of calculating trade figures, which include social services
not included in standard U.N. measures of economic output.
Furthermore, multilateral engagement would widen opportunities
for cultural exchange, academic forums, and NGO access, which
together would build a more realistic picture of local priorities,
needs, and opportunities for building community welfare capacities.
been Cubas largest food supplier, and in the wake of hurricanes Gustav and Ike
This process, in Marifeli Prez-Stables terms, would enable Havana and Washington to formulate a
new beginning with words that do not prune the dialogue before it can blossom (2009; also see Colvin
2008:30-31). Similarly, Chinas increasing participation in international multilateral institutions, such as

the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), the East Asia-Latin American Cooperation Forum (FOCALAE),
and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has engendered clearer understandings of its intentions
in Latin America. Chinas 2008 accession to the IDB with an initial investment of $350 million has
extended its influence in Latin American by augmenting its capacity to bid for regional projects, but it
has also subjected Chinese enterprises to IDB mechanisms for monitoring transparency and followthrough. This and other multilateral forums provide constructive channels for open discussion about
environmental impact, human rights, and corporate responsibility (CFR 2007:97, CRS 2008:9-10). For
the United States, the value added by the above process lies in its promotion of trilateral cooperation.
Both China and the United States favor more open markets in Cuba,
and considering the attempts of Chinese enterprises to build Cubas
export capacities and develop its transport, manufacturing, and
resource sectors, the United States is a logical source of
management services and marketing expertise. Building on
existing U.S. activities in agriculture, medicine, and
telecommunications, expansion into these sectors would bring both
economic benefits for U.S. firms and opportunities for harmonizing
approaches to governance and information sharing. Indeed, the
Obama administrations relatively conciliatory stance toward Cuba
could lay the foundation of a much-needed mutually reinforcing
diplomacy with China in the region (Wilder 2009:4). A defining challenge for U.S.
foreign policy in the 21st century will be the
development of mutually beneficial partnerships with China.
Chinese projects in Latin America could become a

source of deeper cooperation, for as Daniel Erikson concisely put it
to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, trade is not a zero
With sensible
diplomacy,
sum game (2008:3). Hu Jintaos proposal at the 2009 G-20 to jointly develop financial monitoring
mechanisms reflects Chinas desire
for cooperative relations with the United States. With legal
Cuba could become a platform for advancing responsibly

governed trilateral projects that demonstrate awareness of
regional diversity and a commitment to international cooperation.
authorization,
Accommodating diversity is critical to effective diplomacy, for although Confucius may have stated,
have no friends not equal to yourself, in his pragmatic wisdom he also taught his followers to be firm
in the right way, and not merely firm.
Chinese influence isnt zero sum

Xiaoxia 5/6/13 (Wang Xiaoxia is a staff writer for the Economic Observer)
(IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD: CHINA'S RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA
http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investmentsenergy/c9s11647/)
For South America, China and the United States, this is not a zero-sum
game, but a multiple choice of mutual benefits and synergies. Even

if China has become the Latin American economys new upstart, it is
still not in a position to challenge the strong and diverse influence
that the United States has accumulated over two centuries in the region.
There is no trade-off between Chinese and US influence in

Latin America engagement is not zero sum
Malln 5/30/13 (Patricia Rey Malln covers Latin America for the
International Business Times.)(Latin Lovers: China And U.S. Both Vying To
Increase Influence And Trade In Latin America, Caribbean

http://www.ibtimes.com/latin-lovers-china-us-both-vying-increase-influencetrade-latin-america-caribbean-1284839)
The battle is on. The world's two largest economic superpowers, China and
the United States, are making moves on Latin America, hoping to gain more
geopolitical influence in a booming region. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden
arrived in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday, while Chinese President Xi Jinping
just landed in the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago and is
following closely in Bidens steps. Bidens visit to Brazil marks the end of a
six-day swing through the region, which included stops in Colombia and
Trinidad and Tobago. Xis trip to Trinidad, Costa Rica and Mexico is the first
since the formal transition of power ended in China in March. These parallel
journeys from the worlds top powers to Latin America emphasize how
the regions vast natural resources and steady economic growth are
making it an increasingly attractive trading partner. China's designs
on Latin America have long been apparent, with imports to the Asian giant
surging from $3.9 billion in 2000 to $86 billion in 2011, as calculated by the
Inter-American Development Bank. Now, China seeks to start buying massive
amounts of soy beans, copper and iron ore from Latin nations, reports the
South China Morning Post. The U.S., on the other hand, which has had deep
involvement in many Latin American nations for the past two centuries, has
nonetheless been less than consistent in its recent trade policies, said Boston
University economist Kevin Gallagher, who has written about China's
incursions in the region. The onus is on the U.S. to come up with a more
flexible, attractive offer, but thats not so easy because it doesnt have the
deep pockets like it used to, he told Bloomberg. During his visit to
Colombia, Biden signed a two-year free trade agreement between the
countries, calling it just the beginning. The VP said, at the end of a
particularly tense discussion about trade in Trinidad on Tuesday, that the U.S.
is deeply invested in the region, and wants to expand that investment with
more agreements. Our goal is not simply growth, but growth that
reaches everyone, he added. In Rio de Janeiro, Biden met with President
Dilma Rousseff and invited her to a meeting in Washington to finalize a
strategic accord. Biden mentioned being particularly interested in oil and
energy companies like state-owned Petroleo Brasilero, better known as
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), reported Brazilian newspaper O Globo. Biden
mentioned that trade with Brazil could be increased by 400 percent
from the current $100 billion, if trade between the two largest
Western Hemisphere nations included biofuels and aviation.
Meanwhile, Chinas blossoming relationships with the region evince a shift in
its strategy; indeed, in the past Beijing deferred to U.S. economic interests in
Latin America, due to geographic proximity, even referring to the region as
Washingtons backyard. But now, in a globalized world, China seems to
view the entire planet as its own "backyard." You dont hear that anymore
from Xis team, said Evan Ellis, professor at the National Defense University
in Washington, D.C. In fact China has recently ousted the U.S. to become the
top trade partner for Brazil and Chile, reported Bloomberg News. Moreover,
China is seeking to advance its footprints in the region in gradual
steps -- for example, Beijing plans to lend Costa Rica $400 million to help
expand a highway, reported local newspaper La Nacin. If the Chinese
decide to unroll one of their little packages in Trinidad [the biggest energy
supplier in the region], they will win the entire Caribbean over, said
Gallagher. Still, the U.S. and China both deny they are competing in
the vast region. Ultimately, the decision lies with Latin American leaders,
says Gallagher. If I was [a Latin American leader], Id be very happy because
I now have more chips to play with, he added.
Both the US and China are vying for increased economic

engagement in Latin America
Regenstreif 6-21 (Gary, Reporter, Canada; former Bureau Chief, Caracas,
Buenos Aires & Rome; later, Regional Editor, Western Europe The Looking US-China
Rivalry Over Latin America, http://blogs.reuters.com/greatdebate/2013/06/12/the-looming-u-s-china-rivalry-over-latin-america/ , 6/21/13)
Though the U.S. and Chinese presidents heralded a new model of

cooperation at their weekend summit, a growing competition looks more
likely. The whirlwind of activity before President Barack Obama met with
President Xi Jinping in the California desert revealed that Beijing and
Washingtons sights are set on a similar prize and face differing challenges
to attain it. Their focus is Latin America and the prize is increased trade and
investment opportunities in a region where economic reforms have pulled
millions out of poverty and into the middle class. Latin America is rich in the
commodities and energy that both China and the United States need, largely
stable politically and eager to do deals. Consider the travel itinerary: Obama
visited Mexico and Costa Rica last month. Vice President Joe Biden recently
went to Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago and Brazil. Chiles president paid
Obama a visit last week, Perus leader arrived Tuesday and Brazils is due in
October. Meanwhile, just after Biden left Trinidad, Xi arrived, part of a tour
that also took him to Costa Rica and Mexico to promote trade and
cooperation. Both U.S. and Chinese officials, however, are finding a more
self-confident Latin America, able to leverage its new strength to forge better
agreements and find multiple trading partners. That will likely force
Washington to work harder to maintain its leading trade position against
China which has money to burn in the region. There is a more energetic
[U.S.] tone, a more optimistic mood about economic agenda in second term
than [the] first time, Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American
Dialogue, a Washington policy group, told me. Theres something happening
in the region and the U.S. wants to be part of it. Whether theres a wellthought-out vision or policy remains a question. But there is more of an
affirmation of the region and a willingness to engage. The United States,
Latin Americas largest trading partner throughout much of its history, still
retains this position. Washington has now signed free trade agreements with
more than a third of the hemispheres nations and annually exchanges more
than $800 billion in goods and services with Latin America more than three
times the regions commerce with China. In Obamas first term, however, the
administration was widely viewed as neglecting Latin America. And China has
moved in fast. China built its annual trade with the region from virtually
nothing in 2000 to about $260 billion in 2012. In 2009, it overtook the United
States as the largest trading partner of Brazil, the regions powerhouse
largely through massive purchases of iron ore and soy. Other data is telling:
In 1995, for example, the United States accounted for 37 percent of Brazils
foreign direct investment. That dropped to 10 percent in 2011, according to
the Council of the Americas, which seeks to foster hemispheric ties.
Washingtons renewed ardor is at least partly because of the fear that China
will repeat in Latin America the economic success it has built in Africa. China
has been able to present itself as a benevolent partner there, which has
played well against the Wests history of meddling in domestic affairs. Its
about influence and leverage, said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the
Council of the Americas, The region matured and expects to be treated in
real partnership rather than [in the] patronizing way it happened in the
past. The challenges facing Beijing and Washington lie in how each
approaches the region. Washington confronts lingering resentment about its
historic regional interference, stretching back to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine,
and its continuing desire to mix business with policy which muddies its
approach to trade and investment. Washingtons domestic problems, its pivot
to Asia and a host of global crises, also serve as distractions that could keep
its actions in Latin America from matching its words as has happened
before. China, meanwhile, is largely viewed in the region as unencumbered
by ideology. It approaches opportunities almost exclusively on commercial
terms there. Biden, in a May 29 speech in Rio de Janeiro, gushed about the
progress made by Latin America and trumpeted the regions growing
international stature. In the U.S., Biden said, the discussion is no longer
what it was when I was first elected as a young man: What could we do for
the Americas? Thats long since gone. The issue now is: What can we do
together? We want to engage more. We think theres great opportunity. Were
optimistic. As with many new starts, a recognition of past mistakes is in
order. For many in Brazil, Biden said, the United States doesnt start with a
clean slate. Theres some good reason for that skepticism. That skepticism
still exists and its understandable. But the world has changed. Were moving
past old alignments, leaving behind old suspicions and building new
relationships. China has particular interest in Mexico, the regions secondlargest market. Beijing has been competing with Mexico to supply the U.S.
market with manufactured goods. But China is now looking to work with
Mexico City investing in infrastructure, mining and energy because of the
expected reforms that would open the oil industry to foreign investment.
There are obstacles ahead. One irritation that President Enrique Pea Nieto
shared with Xi is that though Mexico posted a trade surplus with its global
partners, it ran a big deficit with China. China is looking for even more
however. It is eager to pursue a free trade agreement with Mexico, but
Mexico City said last week it was too soon. Meanwhile, Mexicos trade with
the United States continues to flourish and it is due to displace Canada as the
largest U.S. trade partner by the end of the decade, according to the
Dialogue. China is also considering joining negotiations for the Trans-Pacific
Partnership agreement, which aims to boost trade among the Americas, Asia
and Australia. The talks include the United States, Canada and other major
economies on the Pacific rim. Each superpower also brings baggage to the
region. Washington still seeks to exert pressure on its partners. It has told
Brazil, for example, that it has the responsibility to use its leverage with
others, such as Iran. Meanwhile, Chinese investment, Farnsworth said,
doesnt always bring with it good governance practices or anti corruption or

environmental concerns. The different approaches suit Latin America just
fine as it looks for continued growth. Latin America welcomes being courted
by both superpowers, Shifter explained.
Offense
Latin American Economies

Chinese influence in the region is bad for Latin American
economies
ONeil 2012 (Shannon K. O'Neil is a Senior Fellow for Latin America
Studies)(October 26th Chinas Economic Role in Latin America

http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2012/10/26/chinas-economic-role-in-latin-america/)
The downsides also exist. These same imports that make consumers
happy hit the economy at large. They directly compete with Latin
American producers, both in home markets as well as abroad in the
United States and the European Union. Anecdotal evidence points to
factories closing, and aggregate trade data shows Latin American
producers losing world market share to China. Still, estimates suggest
this head to head competition occurs in roughly 12 percent of exports from
Latin Americas biggest economiessignificant, but not everywhere. The
indirect effects of Chinas rise have also caused problemsespecially
through the Dutch disease. This occurs when the success of
commodity exports raises the currency, making it harder for
manufacturing companies to compete internationally. Many argue that
this has occurred in Brazil (and helps account for the decline in
manufacturing production as a percent of exports) it may also be happening
in Venezuela, Argentina, and Peru. The bigger worry for Latin American
countries is that they are losing their hard fought gains. Over the last
few decades many both successfully opened their economies and diversified
their production. Looking at the breakdown of exports, one can see a
manufacturing surge in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia since the 1980s. But
Chinas pressure on its trading partners threatens to undo these
gains. Whether or not Latin America can continue to climb the economic
value-added chain matters for the long term. Commodity dependency
leaves countries more vulnerable to global commodity price swings,
and makes it harder to plan and implement long-term policies as a
result. It also limits the job opportunities for the growing number of
educated, urban, and ambitious peoplethe new middle class.
Chinas presence in Latin America, as in many places, holds both promises
and perils. But it is a reality. The challenge for Latin American countries will
be to harness these ties for bigger gains for their own economies and people.
Chinese investment in Latin America bad causes

economic downturn and competition for financial
resources

Garca warned that despite the benefits of high export prices, the
concentration of exports to China in specific areassuch as soya,
raw materials, and mineralsmakes Latin America vulnerable to an
economic downturn and reinforces its traditional production
structures In order to create more equitably distributed and
sustainable growth, the China-Latin America trade model must
move beyond free trade agreements However, at present Chinese
foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America and the Caribbean
is low, and 80 percent of FDI is directed toward tax havens In addition,
Garca highlighted some of the main challenges that Latin American
countries are currently facing: low rates of savings and investment (an
average of 18 percent and 2021 percent of GDP over the last ten years,
respectively), as well as slow productivity growth According to the World
Economic Forums rankings, Latin America also suffers from a lack of
competitiveness This is related to both low investment rates and poor
infrastructurethe region on average invests a mere 23 percent of its GDP
in infrastructure Garca warned that because Chinas reserves help to
compensate for the savings/investment gap in the region and the
fiscal deficits in the United States and Europe, there will be
competition for Chinas financial resources
Political Stability
China has no business in Latin America worsens already
weak governments

Cynthia Sanborn of the Universidad del Pacfico in Lima, Peru, situated the
presence of Chinese state-owned firms in Latin America in the
context of the regions still fragile political democracies These
democracies are characterized by an increased concern for industry
diversification, changing roles for the state and political institutions, and the
presence of new actors such as global NGOs, the Catholic Church,
indigenous communities, and environmental organizations that demand a
voice in natural resource policy In many countries of the region, new or
expanded democratic space enables these groups to question who has the
right to subsoil property, whether local communities can veto concessions
and how they can benefit from revenue distribution, and how to control the
environmental impacts created by these industries In response, global
programs such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and
the International Council on Mining and Minerals (ICMM) have created new
industry standards for addressing revenue transparency, improving
relationships with the communities where companies mine, and using
cleaner technologies in the extraction process Many Western companies
have voluntarily acceded to these regulatory bodies By contrast, Sanborn
classified agreements between China and Latin American
governments as accommodationist China does not belong to the
EITI, and one has only to look to Venezuela and Ecuador to observe that
China adapts to changing rules of the game more successfully than its
Western counterparts China is not only looking for trade
opportunities, but is also interested in the stability of Latin
American societies and seeks local capacities for negotiation
Sanborn specifically addressed the case of Peru and its evolving relationship
with China In Peru, mineral exploitation accounts for one-fourth of tax
revenues and 6 percent of GDP, though in certain regions mineral revenue
constitutes up to half of GDP Thirty-four percent of mineral investments in
Peru are from China, and Peru represents 26 percent of Chinas global
mergers and acquisitions (M &A) Indeed, 40 percent of oil production in
Peru is owned by China investors through a partnership between China

National Petroleum Company (CNPC) and the Argentine firm Pluspetrol
Eight large Chinese firms are present in Perus extractive industries, and
while six of them are purely state-owned, there are also private Chinese
investors purchasing lots Given that China is expected to invest $7 billion
in minerals over the next five years, this trend is unlikely to wane While
Peruvian governments have a strong desire to attract Chinese investment
and increase private development of its industries, national authorities have
been largely unable to provide an effective regulatory framework for foreign
firms or mediate between these firms and the communities where they plan
to conduct extractive activities As a result, the Chinese, like others, have
been forced to adapt based on the conflicts they encounter firsthand
Sanborn cited two cases demonstrating Chinas challenges in this
regard In 1992, Shougang Corporations purchase of Hierro Per in
Marcona was the first mining privatization to occur under former
Peruvian president Alberto Fujimoris new neoliberal regime As part
of this acquisition, Shougang brought in 350 Chinese staff, fired local
employees, and assumed control of the communitys water services, creating
conflicts with labor unions and local government The company was
later accused of corruptionthough these charges have been suspended
so as not to affect further Chinese investment Fifteen years later, the
social conflict surrounding the purchase by the Zijin Consortium of a large
copper project in northern Peru suggested that the Chinese had still not fully
realized that the Peruvian government was largely unable to prevent or
mediate conflict at the local level The result has been violence
between local residents who oppose the mine, representatives of
the company, and political authorities, with the stagnation of the
project itself Faced with the conditions listed abovea weak central
government as well as regulatory frameworkChinese companies today are
learning how to implement community relations at the local level In the
case of Chinalcoa major Chinese state-owned enterprise with direct ties to
the Central Committeethe company has hired experts and local staff with
extensive knowledge of community relations, committed to investing in
environmental clean-up, and cultivated relationships with local China, LaTin
ameriCa, and The UniTed STaTeS: The new TriangLe | 28 | authorities, in
order to undertake a large copper project in the Junin region They are now
in the process of negotiating compensation to local residents for voluntarily
relocating in order to accommodate the open pit mine they plan to build
Sanborn concluded that both responsible national policy makers and
effective civil society actors are necessary for mitigating the development
impacts of mineral extraction and preventing social conflict Absent this
oversight, local communities must rely on the voluntary and often volatile
action by firms themselves
Oil Dependence
Chinese presence in Latin America results in an increase
in oil demand

Conference participants also addressed the implications of Chinas growing
energy demands for LAC countries, for Chinas own economic development,
and for the world energy market Are we looking at China and Latin
American oil as [a] panda or a dragon? asked Jeremy Martin, director of the
Energy Program at the Institute of the Americas Estimates project that
Chinas demand for oil will grow from 8 million barrels per day
(mbd) to 16 mbd by 2030; current imports as a percentage of consumption
are over 50 percent Beijings general strategy for satisfying Chinese
demand consists of securing access to a diverse array of material reserves
and inserting itself into production positions in oil projects Beijing is
pursuing a strategy to assure that all of its oil reserve and production eggs
are not in the same basket Despite its ready economic capital, the
Chinese must face increased competition for oil resources as they
undertake their strategy against the backdrop of a global shift to
peak access; in todays world there are few easy targets and
access to resources has been seriously diminished As a result of
the failed and conflictive US (UNOCAL) and Ecuador (Andes Petroleum
Ecuador Ltd) acquisitions in 2005, China has learned that it can no
longer go it alone in the Western hemisphere Chinas strategy
now includes mergers and acquisitions (M &A) through the
purchase of local shares, joint ventures with local companies, and oil
swaps, where long-term credit is exchanged for oil (for a listing of
these initiatives as of May 26, see Figure 5) According to Martin, oil swaps
are becoming the most important arrows in Beijings quiver This is
exemplified by Venezuelas recent agreement with the Chinese Development
Bank to receive a $20 billion credit line that can be repaid in oil Brazil has
negotiated a similar $10 billion credit line that will provide Petrobras with a
portion of the massive capital needed to develop its recently discovered presalt deep sea fields Martin warned against overstating the current energy
relationship between China and Latin America, noting that while a $10 billion
oil swap for Brazil may sound considerable, it is less than 20 percent of
Petrobras annual capital expenditure program of $4750 billion
Oil dependence causes global warming

Thinkquest No Date
(http://library.thinkquest.org/J003411/causes.htm#)
Global Warming is caused by many things. The causes are split up into two
groups, man-made or anthropogenic causes, and natural causes. Natural Causes Natural causes
are causes created by nature. One natural cause is a release of methane gas from arctic tundra and
A greenhouse gas is a gas that traps heat

in the earth's atmosphere. Another natural cause is that the earth goes through a cycle of
climate change. This climate change usually lasts about 40,000 years. Manmade Causes Man-made causes probably do the most damage . There are many
man-made causes. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems .
Pollution comes in many shapes and sizes. Burning fossil fuels is one thing that
causes pollution. Fossil fuels are fuels made of organic matter such as coal, or oil. When
fossil fuels are burned they give off a green house gas called CO2 . Also
wetlands. Methane is a greenhouse gas.
mining coal and oil allows methane to escape. How does it escape? Methane is naturally in the ground.
When coal or oil is mined you have to dig up the earth a little. When you dig up the fossil fuels you dig up
the methane as well. Another major man-made cause of Global Warming is population. More people
means more food, and more methods of transportation, right? That means more methane because there
will be more burning of fossil fuels, and more agriculture. Now your probably thinking, "Wait a minute, you
said agriculture is going to be damaged by Global Warming, but now you're saying agriculture is going to
help cause Global Warming?" Well, have you ever been in a barn filled with animals and you smell
something terrible? You're smelling methane. Another source of methane is manure. Because more food is
needed we have to raise food. Animals like cows are a source of food which means more manure and
methane. Another problem with the increasing population is transportation. More people means more cars,
and more cars means more pollution. Also, many people have more than one car. Since CO2 contributes
to global warming, the increase in population makes the problem worse because we breathe out CO2. Also,
the trees that convert our CO2 to oxygen are being demolished because we're using the land that we cut
the trees down from as property for our homes and buildings. We are not replacing the trees (an important
part of our eco system), so we are constantly taking advantage of our natural resources and giving nothing
back in return.
Warming causes biodiversity loss in regional hotspots

that causes extinction
Handwerk 2006 (Brian Handwerk is a Nat Geo News Watch contributor)
(April 12th 2006 Global Warming Could Cause Mass Extinctions by 2050,
Study Says
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/04/0412_060412_global_war
ming.html)
A new study suggests that global warming could threaten one-fourth
of the world's plant and vertebrate animal species with extinction
by 2050. The report's authors reached their conclusion after estimating
potential changes to habitatsand the resulting loss of speciesin 25
biodiversity "hot spots" around the world. The ecologically rich hot spots
include South Africa's Cape Floristic Region, the Caribbean Basin, and the
tropical regions of the Andes Mountains. These territories compose only a
small fraction of the planet's land area but contain large numbers of Earth's
flora and fauna. "These [hot spots] are the crown jewels of the
planet's biodiversity," lead author Jay Malcolm of the University of Toronto
told the Canadian Press. "Unless we get our act together soon, we're
looking at committing ourselves to this kind of thing." The report
appears in the current issue of the journal Conservation Biology. Many
Threats Seen Global warming projections are by nature uncertain, and the
report includes many variables that significantly affect species' survival rates
both for good and for ill. Changes to the rate and degree of warming,
as well as the ability of species to migrate or adapt, altered the
estimates of species' extinction risk. Climate change is also only
one threat to species diversity. Many plants and animals are already
feeling the effects of habitat destruction and invasions by non-native
species. It is difficult for scientists to take all such factors into account. Still,
the study's worst-case scenarios are sobering. They include a doubling of
present carbon dioxide levels (as predicted by many climatologists) and rising
temperatures that could potentially eliminate 56,000 plant and 3,700 animal
species in the 25 hot spot regions. The report's findings echo those of a
2004 study, in which a team of international scientists suggested that over a
million species15 to 35 percent of those they studiedcould be at risk of
extinction by 2050. Both the 2004 study and the current research were
conducted in part by scientists from Conservation International. "We used a
completely different set of methods [from the 2004 study] and came up with
similar results," Conservation International's Lee Hannah, co-author of the
current study, told Reuters. "All the evidence shows that there is a
very serious problem." Hot Spot Species Live on the Edge Stuart
Pimm, an expert in extinctions and biodiversity at Duke University in
Durham, North Carolina, explained that species living in ecological
hot spots are at particular risk when their environments change.
"That's where the most vulnerable species are, because they have
the smallest geographical ranges," said Pimm, who is not affiliated with
the study. Species living high on tropical mountainsides, for
example, have nowhere to go if temperatures warm their home
turf. In South Africa's Cape Floristic Region, located on the continent's
southern tip, species are unable to migrate to lower latitudes to escape the
rising temperatures. "There's no question that the poles are experiencing
the greatest climatic change," Pimm said. But polar species are far fewer
in number and may not face the same extinction risk as those that
live in more confined hot spots with greater biodiversity. "While
polar bears and caribou are being harmed, they are not as vulnerable as the
species that live in these hot spots because of [the hot spot species'] very
narrow geographic ranges." Other experts warn that it's not just the
hot spots featured in the new study that face an imminent extinction
risk. "Many species are indeed struggling to hold on in locations all
over the globe, not just in hot spots," said biologist Terry Root, of
Stanford University's Center for Environmental Science and Policy, who was
not involved in the study. "This is not some activity that will only be
occurring 'overseas.' The likely extirpations and extinctions will also be
occurring within a couple hundred miles of all of our back yards."
China-Taiwan War
Turn China is only using Latin America to isolate Taiwan.
That causes tensions to escalate
From 2000 to 2008, Latin America had been a diplomatic battlefield

between China and Taiwan. During the eight years of his tenure,
Taiwans president Chen Shui-bian pursu[ed] identity politicsat the
heavy cost of international isolation, inflamed cross-Strait tensions and
economic stagnation. His tactics were often unnecessarily
provocative, ranging from calling for independence to renaming
public buildings to emphasize Taiwanese identity. Taiwan-U.S.
relations are, as a result, at their lowest ebb in decades.44 In his final
gambit, Chen insisted on holding a national referendum on whether the island
should seek to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan instead of
its legal name, the Republic of China. Of course the Security Council, where
China has a veto, would never have accepted Taiwans application.45 In
March 2008, Taiwans voters rejected the referendum by a substantial margin
and produced a government more favorable to the security across the
Taiwan Strait. The mandate of president Ma Ying-jeou is founded on his
promise to deliver tangible benefits from better relations with Beijing,
including direct airline flights, an economic accord protecting investments,
more tourist visits by mainlanders to Taiwan and a peace accord under
which China would withdraw the thousands of missiles it aims across the
strait.46 According to U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, a
retired admiral who heads 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, the United States
must continue to make sure that military adventures are
unattractive to both sides of the Taiwan Strait. He also cautioned
that Taiwan has to realize that its long-term security lies in some
sort of an arrangement with China. It does not lie in military
defenses. But Taiwan has long held justifiable complaint about its
international political isolation and about Beijings efforts to force
nations to choose diplomatic relations with either Taiwan or China.
The Taiwanese fear that if Chinas policy prevails and renders them
completely isolated, Beijing would face minimal international opposition to
increased hegemony over the island and, ultimately, to Taiwans unwilling
absorption into the mainland.47 Therefore, according to Chong-Pin Lin,
president of the Foundation for International and Cross-Strait Studies and
Taiwans former Deputy Minister of National Defense, Beijing needs to
think creatively about how to gradually allow Taiwan international
space. This is a crucial subject and necessary to win the hearts and
minds of Taiwanese people.48 Proposed by President Ma Ying-jeou, the
policies of diplomatic truce and modus vivendi diplomacy have
successfully improved cross-strait relations. China also deserves some
credit for sharing some international space with Taiwan. In
November 2008, APEC issued a list of countries and leaders on
which Taiwan was referred to as Chinese Taipei and Ma was listed

with his official title and photo. This was the first time that the countrys
president was introduced in an APEC document and it shows that we have
adopted the right strategies of no unification, no independence and no use of
force, according to President Ma.49 In addition, Lien Chan, Taiwans former
vice-President, was able to attend the APEC meeting in Peru. This is
significant because, while the one China principle has long been the
political basis for the establishment and development of relations
between China and Latin American and Caribbean countries and
regional organizations, Liens participation suggests that Beijing
currently has less interest to isolate Taiwan in Latin America.
US-Sino relations
Engagement with Cuba is the stepping stone for stronger
trade relations with China. Lifting the embargo is a key
first step
Social and Political Sciences, the University of Sydney. He has conducted
research in Cuba and and China and is currently undertaking a study of
Chinese engagement with Latin America) (June 2009 Cuba and China:
Lessons and Opportunities for the United States
As U.S. firms weather the recession and adapt to a global economic
environment skeptical of short-term investments, partnerships with Cuba could
offer some stable and constructive solutions. In March 2009 the Obama
administration approved wider legal channels for U.S. agricultural and medical exports to Cuba under the
Omnibus Appropriations Measure (P.L. 111-8), providing a foundation for future industrial engagement.
Likely next steps could include the authorization of trade in farm

equipment, medical apparatus, and telecommunications products,
niches that have already benefited from Chinese trade credits.
Such steps would permit U.S. firms to compete and collaborate with
Chinese counterparts in Cuba, and as indicated by several recent legislative proposals in
Congress, would advance U.S. strategic interests if extended to the oil sector. It is generally
acknowledged that the U.S. embargo on Cuba has not achieved its economic or political goals. Even
Cuban dissidents received the 2006 report of the Commission for a Free Cuba with skepticism, criticizing
it for presuming what a Cuban transition must be, and affirming that only we Cubans, of our own
2009:20). A greater
awareness of local socio-political dynamics in Cuba is sorely
needed, and would be achieved by closer contact both at the
interpersonal level, a prospect favored by 55.2 percent of Cuban
Americans (FIU 2007), and through more interactive and
coordinated commercial relations. Since 2002 the Unites States has been Cubas
largest food supplier, and in the wake of hurricanes Gustav and Ike in September 2008, the Cuban
government expressed its readiness for deeper trade relations
volition...can decide issues of such singular importance (quoted in Sullivan
(Sullivan 2009:24). Rather than dismiss this prospect on political grounds, economic openings and
industrial coordination could be used to promote democratic outcomes. As the Inter-American Dialogue
has concluded, a
democratic society in
Cuba should be the objective of
U.S. engagement, not a precondition (IAD 2009:10). A policy outlook

that engages Cuba as a stakeholder in the prevailing world system
would advance negotiations and resolutions on long-contended
political disputes. Encouraging rather than impeding Cubas participation in the Organization
of American States and other multilateral institutions would be welcomed in the region (IAD 2009:10),
and would encourage much-needed multilateral dialogue on human rights, transparency, and
sovereignty. This would also build international familiarity 7 with the Cuban governments industrial
partnerships with China, economic objectives, and methods of calculating trade figures, which include
social services not included in standard U.N. measures of economic output. Furthermore, multilateral
engagement would widen opportunities for cultural exchange, academic forums, and NGO access, which
together would build a more realistic picture of local priorities, needs, and opportunities for building
community welfare capacities. This process, in Marifeli Prez-Stables terms, would enable Havana and
Washington to formulate a new beginning with words that do not prune the dialogue before it can
(2009; also see Colvin 2008:30-31). Similarly, Chinas increasing
participation in international multilateral institutions, such as the
Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), the East Asia-Latin American
blossom
Cooperation Forum (FOCALAE), and the Inter-American Development

Bank (IDB) has engendered clearer understandings of its intentions
in Latin America. Chinas 2008 accession to the IDB with an initial investment of $350 million
has extended its influence in Latin American by augmenting its capacity to bid for regional projects, but
it has also subjected Chinese enterprises to IDB mechanisms for monitoring transparency and followthrough. This and other multilateral forums provide constructive channels for open discussion about
and corporate responsibility (CFR 2007:97, CRS 2008:9-10). For
the United States, the value added by the above process lies in its
promotion of trilateral cooperation. Both China and the United
States favor more open markets in Cuba, and considering the
attempts of Chinese enterprises to build Cubas export capacities
and develop its transport, manufacturing, and resource sectors, the
United States is a logical source of management services and
marketing expertise. Building on existing U.S. activities in agriculture, medicine, and
environmental impact, human rights,
telecommunications, expansion into these sectors would bring both economic benefits for U.S. firms and
opportunities for harmonizing approaches to governance and information sharing. Indeed, the Obama
administrations relatively conciliatory stance toward Cuba could lay the foundation of a much-needed
the region (Wilder 2009:4). A defining

challenge for U.S. foreign policy in the 21st century will be the
development of mutually beneficial partnerships with China . With sensible
diplomacy, Chinese projects in Latin America could become a source of
deeper cooperation, for as Daniel Erikson concisely put it to the
House Committee on Foreign Affairs, trade is not a zero sum
mutually reinforcing diplomacy with China in
game (2008:3). Hu Jintaos proposal at the 2009 G-20 to jointly develop financial monitoring
mechanisms reflects Chinas desire for cooperative relations with the United States. With legal
authorization, Cuba could become a platform for advancing
responsibly governed trilateral projects that demonstrate
awareness of regional diversity and a commitment to international
cooperation. Accommodating diversity is critical to effective diplomacy, for although Confucius
may have stated, have no friends not equal to yourself, in his pragmatic
followers to be firm in the right way, and not merely firm.
wisdom he also taught his
Lifting the embargo strengthens relations with China and

builds multilateral cooperation throughout Latin America
Hearn 9, (Adrian, research fellow at the School of Social and Political Sciences,
the University of Sydney. He has conducted research in Cuba (three years) and
China (ten months), and is currently undertaking a study of Chinese engagement
with Latin America. Cuba and China, Lessons and Opportunities for the United
States, http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/cuba-chinahearn.pdf)
It is generally acknowledged that the U.S. embargo on Cuba has not achieved
its economic or political goals. Even Cuban dissidents received the 2006
report of the Commission for a Free Cuba with skepticism, criticizing it for
presuming what a Cuban transition must be, and affirming that only we
Cubans, of our own volition...can decide issues of such singular importance
(quoted in Sullivan 2009:20). A greater awareness of local socio-political
dynamics in Cuba is sorely needed, and would be achieved by closer contact
both at the interpersonal level, a prospect favored by 55.2 percent of Cuban
Americans (FIU 2007), and through more interactive and coordinated
commercial relations. Since 2002 the Unites States has been Cubas largest
food supplier, and in the wake of hurricanes Gustav and Ike in September
2008, the Cuban government expressed its readiness for deeper trade
relations (Sullivan 2009:24). Rather than dismiss this prospect on political
grounds, economic openings and industrial coordination could be used to
promote democratic outcomes. As the Inter-American Dialogue has
concluded, a democratic society in Cuba should be the objective of U.S.
engagement, not a precondition (IAD 2009:10). A policy outlook that engages Cuba as a
stakeholder in the prevailing world system would advance negotiations and resolutions on longcontended political disputes. Encouraging rather than impeding Cubas participation in the Organization
of American States and other multilateral institutions would be welcomed in the region (IAD 2009:10),
and would encourage much-needed multilateral dialogue on human rights, transparency, and
sovereignty. This would also build international familiarity 7 with the Cuban governments industrial
partnerships with China, economic objectives, and methods of calculating trade figures, which include
social services not included in standard U.N. measures of economic output. Furthermore, multilateral
engagement would widen opportunities for cultural exchange, academic forums, and NGO access, which
together would build a more realistic picture of local priorities, needs, and opportunities for building
community welfare capacities. This process, in Marifeli Prez-Stables terms, would enable Havana and
Washington to formulate a new beginning with words that do not prune the dialogue before it can
blossom (2009; also see Colvin 2008:30-31). Similarly, Chinas increasing participation in international
multilateral institutions, such as the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), the East Asia-Latin American
Cooperation Forum (FOCALAE), and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has engendered clearer
understandings of its intentions in Latin America. Chinas 2008 accession to the IDB with an initial
investment of $350 million has extended its influence in Latin American by augmenting its capacity to
bid for regional projects, but it has also subjected Chinese enterprises to IDB mechanisms for monitoring
transparency and follow-through. This and other multilateral forums provide constructive channels for
open discussion about environmental impact, human rights, and corporate responsibility (CFR 2007:97,
CRS 2008:9-10). For
the United States, the value added by the above process

lies in its promotion of trilateral cooperation. Both China and the United
States favor more open markets in Cuba, and considering the attempts of
Chinese enterprises to build Cubas export capacities and develop its
transport, manufacturing, and resource sectors, the United States is a logical
source of management services and marketing expertise . Building on
existing U.S. activities in agriculture, medicine, and telecommunications,
expansion into these sectors would bring both economic benefits for U.S.
firms and opportunities for harmonizing approaches to governance and
information sharing. Indeed, the Obama administrations relatively
conciliatory stance toward Cuba could lay the foundation of a much-needed
mutually reinforcing diplomacy with China in the region (Wilder 2009:4).
A defining challenge for U.S. foreign policy in the 21st century will be the
development of mutually beneficial partnerships with China . With sensible
diplomacy, Chinese projects in Latin America could become a source of
deeper cooperation, for as Daniel Erikson concisely put it to the House
Committee on Foreign Affairs, trade is not a zero sum game (2008:3). Hu
Jintaos proposal at the 2009 G-20 to jointly develop financial monitoring
mechanisms reflects Chinas desire for cooperative relations with the United
States. With legal authorization, Cuba could become a platform for
advancing responsibly governed trilateral projects that demonstrate
awareness of regional diversity and a commitment to international
cooperation.
US Heg
Chinas presence in Latin America is a strategic tool to
challenge US power the US must engage with Latin
America
Johnson 5. [Stephen, Senior Policy Analyst, "Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America"
Heritage Foundation -- October 24 -- www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growinginfluence-in-latin-america]
Twenty-five years into this experiment, China has the world's sixthlargest economy, the third-largest defense budget according to
some estimates, and the largest national population (1.3 billion people).
According to the World Bank, its gross domestic product of $1.6 trillion is growing about 9 percent per year.
China needs resources to feed its rapidly expanding economy, but it

does not have sufficient oil, natural gas, aluminum, copper, or iron to
satisfy its energy and manufacturing needs. Furthermore, it needs trade partners
to buy its electronics, apparel, toys, and footwear. While communist China is embracing market concepts,
it still has a non-market economy in which a disciplined totalitarian party retains full authority (through the
central government) over non-state investment, import, export, and financial decisions .
China's
neighbors are competing for many of the same world markets, as are
Europe and the United States. Latin America is a particularly
promising prospect. It is relatively unindustrialized and has an
abundance of raw materials. Moreover, authoritarian leaders and/or corrupt oligarchies
control a number of governments. Signing purchase agreements with them is much easier than dealing
with the panoply of private corporations found in more democratic countries. Challenging the United
China's main rival for global preeminence is the United States.

China sees the United States as preventing Tai wan's reunification
with the mainland and thwarting Beijing's rise as a power. Previously,
China was isolated, but now plays key roles in Asian geopolitics and aspires
to do so elsewhere. Besides status as a nuclear nation, it is a member of the U.N. Security
States.
Council, the World Trade Organization, the Group of 77 developing nations, and the Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation group. It also holds observer status in the Organization of American States. While China has
become the second-largest U.S. trade partner after Canada ,
it challenges U.S. influence

wherever it can. In fact, it will soon have more attack submarines than the United States, with the
addition of four Russian Kilo-class subs and new diesel-electric vessels equipped with technology that will
allow them to run quieter than nuclear submarines.[1] According to former U.S. Ambassador to Beijing
"[T]he facts are that [the Chinese] run massive intelligence

operations against us, they make open statements against us, their
high-level documents show that they are not friendly to us." Chinese
military white papers promote power projection and describe U.S.
policies as "hegemonism and power politics ."[2] In the Western Hemisphere, the
Chinese are taking advantage of failures of half-hearted market
reforms and Washington's unwillingness to pursue neighborhood
relations with much enthusiasm. National Defense University professor Cynthia A. Watson
James Lilly,
notes, "[T]he 1990s turned into a period of severe disappointment as free markets led to rampant
corruption and unfulfilled expectations in Latin America while Washington became the world's superpower
rather than a partner for the region."[3]
*IN PROGRESS*
Advantage Research
Democracy
Internal Links
The sanctions against Cuba have only encouraged people
to listen to Castro, not defy him
Mitchell 1 The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions
Against Cuba Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army,

2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
The irony of U.S. policy toward Cuba is that it seeks a peaceful transition to
democracy in that country, yet actively encourages the opposite effect.
During the cold war, Castros Soviet-oriented policies were a challenge to U.S. interest. Washington was
constantly at war in various ways with the Cuban Leader, elevating him in status to a world figure, far out
Castros foreign policies

are generally conducted according to international expectations, and
his significance for the United States has largely disappeared. But
the U.S. has not changed its policy toward him and thus continues to
project himself as larger than life onto the world stage . Therefore those
who proclaim themselves Castros worst enemies have in fact
become guarantors of his heritage as an unflinching antiimperialist, still defying what he calls U.S. efforts to stamp out any
diversity in the world.
of proportion to his position as the dictator of a tiny island. Today,
***generic trade = democracy card*** Trade and

democracy promotion go hand in hand economists prove
Meissner et Lopez 6 (Christopher M. Meissner is an Associate
Professor for the Department of Economics at UC Davis. J. Ernesto LUpezCUrdova is the Lead Economist for Mexico at the Inter-American Development
Bank. The Impact of International Trade on Democracy: A Long-Run
Perspective p. 4-6 http://old.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/cmm/democracy-andtrade-p-short.pdf. 10/23/06)
Inthispaperwetestwhetherincreasedtradeflowshaveadirectimpactondemocracy.However,theviewthatglobalizationhelps
builddemocracyhasinthepastrestedonanindirectcausallinkage:(i)globalization
is conducive to
economic development and(ii)economic development fosters
democracy.Thefirstargumentisthesubjectofafierceacademicdebateineconomics.FrankelandRomer(1999)and
FranciscoAlcalandAntonioCiccone(2004),amongothers,arguethattradeopennessiscausallycorrelatedwitheconomicgrowth.
FranciscoRodrguezandRodrik(1999)offeredan(early)skepticalassessmentofthatliterature.Moreover,Rodrik,Arvind
SubramanianandFrancescoTrebbi(2002)underscoretheimportanceofinstitutionsasthemaindriverofeconomicprosperityand
3
findthattradehasaninsignificantimpactongrowthandoftenappearstohaveanegativeeffect. Regardingthesecondargument,the
propositionthateconomicdevelopmentfostersdemocracyhasbeenadvancedbySeymourMartinLipset(1959).Barro(1999)and,
morerecently,CarlesBoixandSusanC.Stokes(2002)findeconometricevidenceinsupportofLipsetsproposition.Accordingto
JagdishBhagwati(2004),Lipsets
views have usually been interpreted as implying that economic development is accompanied by the emergence
of a middle class demanding expanded political rights,eventuallygiving
rise to democracy.Inaccordancewiththisview,JustinYifuLinandJeffreyB.Nugent(1995,p.2336)statethat
...adictatorshiporauthoritarianregimemaynotbecompatiblewithlongruneconomicgrowth.The more
successful is such a state in achieving economic development, the
more likely it is that the state will face alegitimacycrisis.Thisisbecausebothafinancially
independentmiddleclassandthe integration of the domestic economy with the
world economyareatthesametimebothnecessaryconditionsforandnaturaleffectsofeconomicsuccessinthemodern
world.Asaresult,democratic ideology of DCs [developed countries] may
penetrate the middle class
andunderminethelegitimacyoftheregime.Thesepressuresmayalsoforcethe
statetocutitsownpowerofinterventioninordertomakecredibleitscommitmenttosuchreforms.Thus,authoritarian
states may gradually be transformed into democratic states, as

seems to be happening in Korea, Taiwan, and Chile .Thepreeminencegiventothe
emergenceofamiddleclassisreminiscentofrecentworkbyAcemogluandRobinson(2001)whichputsthedistributionofincome
andassetsatthecenterofamodelofpoliticaltransitions.When
the distribution of assets is

skewed, economic elites fear the adoption of redistributive policies
by a democratic government and,asaconsequence,theysupport authoritarian
regimes. In this view, egalitarian societies are more likely to be
democratic as there would be less propensity and opposition to
redistribution.AcemogluandRobinson(2001)suggestthatpolicies that result in a better
distribution of assets,suchasimprovedaccesstoeducationbythepoor,totheextentthattheyamelioratethe
appealofredistribution,would prop efforts to democratize.Extendingthislineofargument,
AcemogluandRobinson(2005)arguethatglobalization should improve income
distributionthroughStolperSamuelsoneffectsforexampleand,inturn,should reduce political
conflict and favor democratization.AcemogluandRobinson(2005)emphasizehoweverthat
where the gains from trade accrue to an elite,perhapsincommodityexportingcountries
orwherelandistheabundantfactor,increasedtradecouldimpedetheemergenceofdemocracy.
Collapsing the embargo is key to promotion of democracy

Lloyd 10 (DELIA LLOYD is a political Corrospodent for the Huffington Post.
Ten Reasons to Lift the Cuba Embargo
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/08/24/ten-reasons-to-lift-the-cubaembargo/. 08/24/10.)
2. It's good politics. Supporters of the trade embargo -- like Cuban-American Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.)
-- have long argued that easing the restrictions would only reward Castro for the regime's ongoing
repression of political dissidents. We need to keep up the economic pressure on Cuba, so this logic goes, in
there's a longstanding empirical relationship between trade and democracy. The

usual logic put forth to explain this relationship is that trade creates an economically
independent and politically aware middle class , which, in turn, presses for
political reform. It's not clear that this argument actually holds up when subjected to close causal
order to keep pressure on the regime to do something about human rights. But
scrutiny (although the reverse does seem to be true -- i.e., democratic reform creates pressure for trade
by enabling visiting
scholars and religious groups to stay in Cuba for up to two years (as the
presidential order would allow) rather than a matter of weeks (as is currently the case) we'd be
helping, not hurting, democracy in Cuba. First, easing the current travel
restrictions would allow for far deeper linkages between nongovernmental organizations from both countries, which some see as
a powerful mechanism for democratic reform. Second, because American
visitors would be staying on the island longer, scholars and activists alike would gain
much better insight into where the pressure points for democracy
actually exist.
liberalization). Still, it's difficult to disagree with the proposition that
Lifting the embargo helps economic relations also key to

democracy
Lloyd 10 (DELIA LLOYD is a political Corrospodent for the Huffington Post.
Ten Reasons to Lift the Cuba Embargo
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/08/24/ten-reasons-to-lift-the-cubaembargo/. 08/24/10. Accessed 03/10/13. #GGStilleStrikesAgain!)

It's not yet clear what all of this will amount to. The congressional bills still need to wend their way through several other committees, where they may face entrenched opposition to altering Cuba policy, especially on the long-standing trade embargo. And even the presidential order (if
it comes) will only return Cuban policy to where it was under President Clinton after a decade of more severe restrictions under President Bush. Still, all of this has lots of people speculating that there's a sea change afoot in U.S.-Cuban relations, one that has the potential to not only
lifting the embargo makes sense: 1. It's

good economics. It's long been recognized that opening up Cuba to
American investment would be a huge boon to the tourism industry
in both countries.
One 2009 study estimated that doing away with all
financing and travel restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba
would have boosted 2008 dairy sales to that country from $13
million to between $39 million and $87 million, increasing U.S.
market share from 6 percent to between 18 and 42 percent. 2. It's good politics.
Supporters of the trade embargo -- like Cuban-American Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) -have long argued that easing the restrictions would only reward
Castro for the regime's ongoing repression of political dissidents. We need to keep
up the economic pressure on Cuba, so this logic goes, in order to keep
pressure on the regime to do something about human rights. But there's a long-standing
empirical relationship between trade and democracy. The usual logic
put forth to explain this relationship is that trade creates an
economically independent and politically aware middle class, which,
in turn, presses for political reform. It's not clear that this argument actually holds up when
ease travel restrictions but possibly even overturn the embargo itself. In that spirit, here are 10 reasons that
According to the Cuban government, 250,000 Cuban-Americans visited from the United States in 2009, up from roughly 170,000 the year before, suggesting a pent-up demand. Lifting the embargo would also be
an enormous boon the U.S. agricultural sector.
subjected to close causal scrutiny (although the reverse does seem to be true -- i.e., democratic reform
it's difficult to disagree with the

proposition that by enabling visiting scholars and religious groups to
stay in Cuba for up to two years (as the presidential order would allow) rather than a
matter of weeks (as is currently the case) we'd be helping, not hurting, democracy in
Cuba. First, easing the current travel restrictions would allow for far
deeper linkages between non-governmental organizations from both
countries, which some see as a powerful mechanism for democratic reform. Second, because
American visitors would be staying on the island longer, scholars and
activists alike would gain much better insight into where the
pressure points for democracy actually exist.
creates pressure for trade liberalization). Still,
Engaging with the Cuban people by lifting the embargois

our best hope for a peaceful transition to democracy in
Cuba.
Dodd 7 (Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut argues in a press release on
August 15, 2007. Chris Dodd is a Senator from Connecticut. Dodd on Cuba
Policy. Matt Browner-Hamlin.http://havanajournal.com/politics/entry/chrisdodd-supports-s721-freedom-to-travel-to-cuba-act-of-2007/)
I want to see the peaceful transition to democracy occur on the Island of Cuba in my
life time. That isnt going to happen if we continue the misguided policies
of the last forty-six years. We must open the flood gates to contacts
with the Cuban people. We must remove restrictions on the ability of Cuban Americans to
provide financial assistance to their loved ones. Even small sums of money in the hands of ordinary Cuban
families can serve as catalysts for private investment to gain a foothold in Cuba. I have long supported the
freedom to travel to Cuba, which is why I have joined with twenty of my colleagues in a bi-partisan way to
It is simply un-American to
bar American citizens from traveling to foreign countries. In fact,
co-sponsor S.721 the Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act of 2007.
Americans are currently free to travel to both Iran and North Korea, two countries which pose far more
the
United States most potent weapon against totalitarianism is the
influence of ordinary American citizens. They are some of the best ambassadors we
have, and the free exchange of ideas and the interaction between
Americans and Cubans are important ways to encourage democracy
in Cuba. For more than forty-six years, the United States has maintained an isolationist
policy toward Cuba, which I believe has not achieved its intended objectives,
serious threats to American national security than the government of Cuba. But more than that,
namely to hasten a peaceful anddemocratic transition on the Island of Cuba. Rather, it has solidified the
authoritarian control of Fidel Castro, and has adversely affected the already miserable living conditions of
11 million innocent men, women, and children on the Island. I have long opposed restrictions on the sale of
food and medicine to the Cuban people. Frankly I believe it is immoral to deprive innocent people from
access to American medical and farm products. Moreover, we hurt our American farm families with such an
ill conceived policy. It is a commonsense policy to encourage Cuban authorities to purchase US food and
medicine rather than other foreign purchases that may impact adversely on our nations security. The
Cuba is in the throes of a transition to a post-Castro Cuba. A US policy

of staying the course leaves us on the sides as the future of Cuba is
being written. It is time to engage before it is too late to have a positive influence on the
Island of
political landscape which is rapidly taking shape there. In a Dodd administration the United States will
engage with the Cuban people in support of a peaceful transition to

democracy.
Impacts
Latin America is a key model to make democratic
transitions effective
Fauriol et al 95 (Georges, director of the CSIS Americas Program, and
Sidney, William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS, Professor at
School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, Summer 1995,
The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 3, U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the
Southern Cone, p. 123)
The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department regularly parades the fact
that all countries in the hemisphere, save one, now have democratically elected governments. True enough, as long as the
definition of democracy is flexible, but these countries turned to democracy mostly of their own volition. It is hard to
determine if the United States is using the democracy theme as a club in the hemisphere (hold elections or be excluded)
or promoting it as a goal. If as a club, its efficacy is limited to this hemisphere, as the 1994 Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Indonesia demonstrated in its call for free trade in that region, replete with nondemocratic
Latin Americans are somewhat cynical as to

whether the United States really cares deeply about promoting
democracy if this conflicts with expanding exports. Yet this triad of
objectives - economic liberalization and free trade, democratization,
and sustainable development/alleviation of poverty [are] generaaccepted in the hemisphere. The commitment to the latter two varies by country,
but all three are taken as valid. All three are also themes expounded
widely by the United States, but with more vigor in this hemisphere
than anywhere else in the developing world. Thus, failure to advance
on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in
the world.
nations, by 2020. Following that meeting,
Democratic governance is key to international stability

prevents terrorism, genocide, and environmntal
destruction
Diamond 95, a professor, lecturer, adviser, and author on foreign policy, foreign aid, and
democracy. [Larry Diamond, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and instruments, issues and
imperatives : a report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1995,
http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/di.htm]
The experience of this century offers important lessons.
Countries that govern themselves in

a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. They do
not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic governments do not ethnically
"cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Democracies
do not sponsor terrorism against one another. They do not build
weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another.
Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and
more stable climates for investment. They are more environmentally responsible because
they must answer to their own citizens, who organize to protest the
destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international
treaties since they value legal obligations and because their openness makes it much more difficult to breach
agreements in secret. Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property
rights, and the rule of law, democracies are the only reliable foundation on
which a new world order of international security and prosperity can
be built.
The marxist structure impossed by Castro is rooted in war

and a belief that society has to be violently recorded--leads to multiple humanitarian obstructions
Hoppe 89, Hans-Hermann. The Ludwig Von Mises Institutes Studies in
Austrian Economics. Boston: Kluwer Academic, 1989. Print.
Finally, as a last example that illustrates the impoverishment caused by conservative policies, the
experience with
national-socialism in Germany and to a lesser degree with Italian fascism should
be mentioned. It is often not understood that both were conservative-socialist movements.29 It is as such,
i.e., as movements directed against the change and the social disrup tions brought about by the dynamic
forces of a free economy, that theyother than Marxist-socialist movementscould find support among
the class of established proprietors, shop owners, farmers and entrepreneurs. But to derive from this the
conclusion that it must have been a pro-capitalist movement or even the highest stage in the development
of capitalism before its final demise, as Marxists normally do, is entirely wrong. Indeed, fascisms and
Nazisms most fervently abhorred enemy was not socialism as such, but liberalism. Of course, both also
despised the socialism of the Marxists and Bolshevists, because at least ideologically they were
internationalists and pacifists (relying on the forces of history that would lead to a destruction of capitalism
devoted to war and

conquest; and, probably even more important regarding its public support, because Marxism
implied that the haves would be expropriated by the have-nots and
the social order thus would be turned upside-down, while fascism and Nazism
from within), while fascism and Nazism were nationalist movements
promised to preserve the given order.30 But, and this is decisive for their classification as socialist (rather
than capitalist) movements, to pursue this goal impliesas has been explained in detail abovejust as
much a denial of the rights of the individual user-owner of things to do with them whatever seems best
(provided one does not physically damage anothers property or engage in noncontractual exchanges),
and just as much an expropriation of natural owners by society (that is, by people who neither produced
nor contractually acquired the things in question) as does the policy of Marxism. And indeed, in order to
reach this goal both fascism and Nazism did exactly what their classification [p. 94] as conservativesocialist would have led one to expect: they established highly controlled and regulated economies in
which private ownership was still existent in name, but had in fact become meaningless, since the right to
determine the use of the things owned had been almost completely lost to political institutions. The Nazis,
in particular, imposed a system of almost complete price controls (including wage controls), devised the
institution of four-year plans (almost like in Russia, where the plans spanned the period of five years) and
established economic planning and supervising boards which had to approve all significant changes in the
production structure. An owner could no longer decide what to produce or how to produce it, from whom
to buy or to whom to sell, what prices to pay or to charge, or how to implement any changes. All this, to be
sure, created a feeling of security. Everyone was assigned a fixed position, and wage-earners as well as
owners of capital received a guaranteed, and in nominal terms, stable or even growing income. In addition,
giant forced labor programs, the reintroduction of conscription, and

finally the implementation of a war economy strengthened the
illusion of economic expansion and prosperity.31 But as would have to be
expected from an economic system that destroys a producers incentive to adjust to demand and avoid not
adjusting to it, and that thereby separates demand from production, this feeling of prosperity proved to be
nothing but an illusion. In reality, in terms of the goods that people could buy for their money the standard
of living fell, not only in relative but even in absolute terms.32 And in any case, even disregarding here all
of the destruction that was caused by the war, Germany and to a lesser extent Italy were severely
impoverished after the defeat of the Nazis and fascists.
EU Relations
Internal Links
Embargo hurts EU relations also kills international trade
Hanson et al 1-16
(Daniel Hanson, Dayne Batten & Harrison Ealey are all political journalists for Forbes.com It's Time For The U.S. To End
Its Senseless Embargo Of Cuba http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/01/16/its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-its-senseless-embargo-of-cuba/. 01/16/13.)
the U.S. is largely alone in restricting access to Cuba. The

embargo has long been a point of friction between the United States
and allies in Europe, South America, and Canada. Every year since 1992, the
U.S. has been publically condemned in the United Nations for maintaining
counterproductive and worn out trade and migration restrictions against Cuba
At present,
despite the fact that nearly all 5,911 U.S. companies nationalized during the Castro takeover have dropped
since Europeans, Japanese, and Canadians can travel

and conduct business in Cuba unimpeded, the sanctions are rather toothless. The
State Department has argued that the cost of conducting business in
Cuba is only negligibly higher because of the embargo. For American
multinational corporations wishing to undertake commerce in Cuba,
foreign branches find it easy to conduct exchanges.
their claims. Moreover,
Lack of humanitarian aid hurts relations with US and UN

AAWH 97
(The American Association for World Health is a multi-national committee that works in tandem with WHO and PAHO. The impact of the US
embargo on health and nutrion in Cuba Chapter 9: "International Law, Human Rights, and the Embargo," 295-301. 1997)
over the course of

time, various limitations have come to be recognized by the
international community as to what is the proper scope of a
permissible embargo. In short, international practice has come to
include an exception for medicines, medical supplies and certain basic
foodstuffs in any embargo in order to prevent unnecessary suffering among civilian populations.
Humanitarian exceptions permitting the free flow of medicines and
food were features of multilateral embargoes imposed against North Korea,
Vietnam, South Africa, Chile, El Salvador, the Soviet Union and Haiti. In the recent U.N.supported embargoes against Iraq and the territories of the former Yugoslavia, the U.N.
upheld the principle that food and medicines must be allowed
through in order to serve the basic needs of the civilian population.
The use of economic embargoes as a political sanction is not new. However,
In the case of Iraq, a special Sanctions Committee was established within the U.N. to ensure that
shipments of food and medicines were permitted to get through to Iraqi civilians. In explaining the
U.N. Security Council officials

stated that it is internationally "unacceptable to cause wide-spread
suffering among civilians through impeding the shipment of food
and medicines in order to punish a countrys leaders.
rationale for allowing these exceptions to the embargo,
A single effort by US and EU is the only method to solve

aid in Cuba
Erikson 9
(Daniel P. Erikson, Senior Associate for US policy and
Director of Caribbean programs at the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD) Europes Cuba Problem: The Limits of Constructive Engagement
http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/loader.cfm?csmodule=security/getfile&pageid=38108.)
Cuba has long presented a vexing problem for the European Union (EU), which has become increasingly
critical of the Castro government but is committed to maintaining political and economic links to the
island.
European policy towards Cuba is further complicated
by the domestic political controversies over Cuba that

brew in several key EU member states, the divergent strategies favoured
towards dealing with the Castro regime and Cubas domestic political opposition, and the large number of
states (27) engaged in foreign-policy making. Furthermore, the United States of Americas embargo of
Cuba and the overall American effort to isolate the Castro government and starve Cuba of resources is a
In recent years, the European Union and

the United States have attempted to paper over their
deep policy and political differences regarding Cuba with the
assertion that both Washington and Brussels share the same policy
goal a democratic transition in Cuba and therefore the only disagreement is
over whether that objective is best achieved through the
engagement favored by Europe or the isolation promoted
by the United States.
source of tension with Europe.
EU and US differing policies hurts democracy promotion in

Cuba
Erikson 9
European and American conceptions of Cubas democratic

transition have much less in common than is widely acknowledged.
However,
The dominant European vision of change in Cuba is marked by Cubas gradual evolution to a social
The United States,

by contrast, has sought the rapid collapse of the Castro regime and its
replacement by a democratic, pro-free market government that offers compensation
democratic model that continues to respect European trade and investment.
for past property expropriations and offers a major role for US-based Cuban exiles in the countrys future.
The European Union and the United States, therefore, are not offering two different
policies to achieve the same result; they in fact have been seeking very different
political results regarding Cuba, and this fact is reflected in their preferred approaches.
However, the Cuban policies promoted by Brussels and Washington do have one thing in
common their manifest failure to bring about any democratic change in Cuba. More than 50 years after
the Cuban Revolution, it is apparent that the pace of political change in Cuba will be determined by
principally by domestic factors. Indeed, while it is difficult to envision either the European Union or the
it is quite plausible that

the conflicting strategies pursued by Europe and the United States
United States having much impact on a future Cuban transition,
have only served to further diminish the effectiveness of their

democracy promotion strategies.
EU coop with US solves democracy

Erikson 9
The European role in a future democratic transition in Cuba will be

limited by the fact that any political or economic change in Cuba will need to be managed first and
foremost by the Cubans themselves. Internationally, the United States remains the dominant
actor; still, a coordinated effort from Europe would have more weight in
influencing the new Cuban leadership. The EU could act in the
following areas: 1. Establish a high-level non-governmental forum
for multilateral dialogue. The sensitivity of the Cuban issue for the
governments of Europe means that official governmental channels are illsuited to generate constructive dialogue. International and multilateral institutions
are similarly constrained. 2. Work with Latin Americas progressive democrats tore-engage with
Cuba.The
hemispheres political template today presents an

opportunity for Latin Americas moderate countries to become more
active in bringing Cuba into the democratic community of states. One
starting point would be to assemble a group of 1012 current and former Latin American officials with
unquestionable democratic credentials at home and a reasonable level of access to the Cuban government
to meet with high-level Cubans from all sectors of society, assess the leadership, and suggest next steps.
Replace the European Common Position with an approach that

better suits the diverse interests and comparative advantages of the
member countries. It may be more helpful for EU members to agree to a narrow set of guiding
3.
principles, such as support for expanding political and civil liberties, the importance of dialogue, and
continued economic engagement, rather than attempt to have a single policy of conditional engagement
A recast strategy by the European Union would allow it to

harness its diversity as a strength in approaching Cuba, rather than a
with the regime.
weakness that results in a watered-down approach to Cuba. 4. Encourage the integration of Cuba into the
The EU can develop dialogue mechanisms to

explore ways to better integrate Cuba into critical institutions, such as
the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and leverage these resources to
advance the quality of life for the Cuban people. 5. Provide technical expertise,
global economic and political system.
advice and financing to help Cuba evolve into a politically and economically more open society. The newest
members of the The Cuban policies promoted by Brussels and Washington have one thing in common
their manifest failure to bring about any democratic change in Cuba. The
European role in a
future democratic transition in Cuba will be limited by the fact that
any political or economic change in Cuba will need to be managed
first and foremost by the Cubans themselves. EU have made the transition from
authoritarian rule to democracy over the past two decades, and these experiences carry important lessons
for Cubas eventual democratization.
US Embargo makes it extremely difficult for any nation to

assist Cuba medically
Kirkpatrick 96
, Anthony F. "Role of the USA in Shortage of Food and Medicine in Cuba."Cubasolidarity.net. N.p., 30 Nov. 1996. Web. 6 Mar. 2013.
The USA has immense control over the availability of essential drugs
worldwide. The figure shows that the US pharmaceutical industry has a significant global lead in the
discovery and development of major drugs. The US monopoly spans almost all therapeutic and diagnostic
the US has restricted Cubas access

to these essential medicines.4 However, with the tightening of the embargo in 1992 through
the passage of the Cuban Democracy Act (CDA) many of these medicines became
virtually unattainable. The new restrictions required that the President of the
USA certify, through on-site inspections approved by the President, that all
applications.2,3 For over 30 years an embargo by
components of a shipment of medical products to Cuba were used for the purpose intended.5 The US
Government knew that it could not do these on-site inspections. The

US Government therefore shifted the burden of on-site inspections
to the exporters. The manufacturers had to accept the responsibility for verifying the end use of
each product sold to Cuba, at an increased administrative cost. If certain procedures were not followed,
the manufacturers could be subject to penalties of up to $1 million

per violation for corporations and prison terms up to 10 years for
individuals. The Cuban Government has allowed some of these on-site inspections, even though it intrudes
The US Government, for its part, seems to make a

concerted effort to frustrate medical companies attempting to
export goods to Cuba. For example, Johnson & Johnson was forced to wait a year to receive an
on Cubas sovereignty.
export licence.6 Other companies have found the licenceapplication process insurmountable, even for the
sale of $200 of replacement parts for radiographic equipment (Cody N, Picker International, Cleveland,
Ohio, USA; personal communication). According to Iris Medical, an international supplier of
ophthalmological equipment, Despite a substantial expenditure of time and resources, Iris Medical was
unable to establish a meaningful dialog with the US Department of Commerce in a manner consistent with
standard business practices (Arias E, Iris Medical, Mountain View, California, USA; personal
communication). Even WHO is subject to the CDA. restrictions.6 Consequently, as the table shows ,
only
a few of the world s medical companies have attempted to brave US
regulations since the enactment of the CDA. The number of companies granted US licences to sell to
Cuba has fallen to less than 4% of pre-CDA levels.4 The largest pharmaceutical firm in
the USA, Merck, announced on Dec 19, 1995, that it will never do business
with Cuba while the embargo is in place. Merck was prosecuted by
the US Government for an exchange of scientific information with Cuba. Merck described the
exchange of information as an opportunity to assist WHO in its Pan-American health-care activities. There
was no commercial transaction. Merck reports that they believed that they had a gentlemans
agreement with the US Department of Treasury to keep a low profile about the incident (Bearse S, Merck,
Whitehouse, New Jersey, USA; personal communication). However, when President Fidel Castro came to
New York City in October, 1995, to attend the United Nations 50th anniversary celebration, the US
Treasury Department publicised the Merck incident.7 Similarly, when International Murex Technologies of
the USA acquired a diagnostics company from the UK, Murex banned the sale of diagnostic products from
the UK to Cuba for fear of reprisals by the US Government and the risk of adverse publicity (Ramsey S,
International Murex Corporation, Norcross, Georgia, USA; personal communication). As a result, Cuba had
to find a new supplier of diagnostic products followed by 36 months of validation testing in Cuba before
some of the products could be used. Mercks and Murexs experiences with the Cuban embargo are only
US-induced barriers and deterrents for trade in medical

products with Cuba. These include fear of huge financial penalties and
imprisonment of company employees, increased legal costs, US
Government prosecution for minor and inadvertent violations of the
Cuban embargo, and followup solicitation of the press for adverse
publicity against the medical company and its employees.
examples of other
Humanitarian norms are integral to international relations

Mills 5
Neo-Humanitarianism: The Role of International Humanitarian Norms and Organizations in Contemporary Conflict Kurt Mills Global Governance , Vol.
11, No. 2 (Apr.June 2005), pp. 161-183
global humanitarian action, and discourse

over such action, has become such an increasingly visible fea ture of
international relations that it has insinuated itself into a variety of
political and operational situations. In fact, humanitarian norms have
become so important that they force their way into the general
discourse of war and peace. Furthermore, humanitarianism has become an
extremely valuable public relations tool.
What I would like to suggest is that
Decline in international relations will wipe out humanity

Sheehan 8,
Mike. "Why International Relations Is the Key to All Our Futures." The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media, 29 July 2006.
Web. 08 Mar. 2013.
if the human race is wiped out in the next 50 years

it will not be because of disease or an asteroid hitting the earth, but because of foreign policy
and international relations. In a world where thousands of nuclear weapons exist and more countries
It was said a few years ago that
are trying to acquire them, where suicide terrorist strikes come without warning and thousands die each day from poverty
we need to know about and

understand international relations. This is what makes international relations such an exciting
caused by the way the international system operates,
and interesting - not to mention important - subject to study. It is not usually taught at school, but is a subject that you
already know something about. Do you remember where you were on 9/11? How you felt? You are already part of
international relations because of the choices you make, such as whether you buy fairtrade, or fast food; because of your
identity, religion and cultural background; because of the news you watch (whether that's Sky News, News at Ten or Big
Brother's Little Brother); because of the resources you possess, the place you live and so on. Put simply,
international relations is about war and peace, conflict and

cooperation, wealth and poverty, power and change, and understanding patterns of
behaviour between the actors in the world - from states, to presidents, to corporations.
There is no "ideal" type of international relations student. Many issues may inspire your interest in international relations.
You may have studied politics or citizenship, history, geography, or sociology for example. You might even be studying
science and have now changed direction. You do not need to have the answers to the world's problems, such as terrorism,
nuclear proliferation, debt, climate change, bird flu, and Aids. But you may have lots of questions. Why is international
relations important? Is it all about war? Is it really about poverty and big business? Is the United States all powerful or are
other states, institutions (like the World Bank and the EU), or even ideas (religious or political) crucial in deciding what
happens in the world? How should we cope with global issues? Does it really make a difference to have Angelina Jolie as a
United Nations goodwill ambassador? Courses in international relations look behind the headlines to the key players in
world politics, asking what are the important ideas and how can we solve conflict or achieve cooperation. Your application
or interview for an international relations degree will give you an opportunity to demonstrate your curiosity about global
affairs.
The United States needs to have good relations with allies

to maintain peace and rights protection
Omestad 8
European Nations 'Expect a Lot' From an Obama Presidency Officials have long list of issues to fix, from climate change to arms control,
after rocky Bush years By Thomas Omestad Posted December 8, 2008.
The need for an intensified partnership, say diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic,
is truly urgent. An increasingly assertive Russia needs to be
engaged but also deterred from actions like its invasion and partial
occupation of neighboring Georgia in August. A more dangerous Taliban
insurgency in Afghanistannow a NATO as well as a U.S. warneeds
to be put down. Stalled Middle East peace efforts need new focus
and energy. Iran's accelerating nuclear program has to be reined in.
Climate change must be confronted more rapidly. And, amid recession and
reeling financial markets, both sides of the Atlantic need to spur economic growth and reform the global
financial system.
Impacts
GOOD US-EU relatins are key to create a multilateral
power.
Mftler-Ba and Cihangir 12 (Meltem Mftler-Ba has been awarded the
Affiliated professor at the University of Stockholm, 2013-2016. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences,
Teaching Award,2011 Jean Monnet centre of Excellence, European Commission, 2011 Jean Monnet Chair ad
personam, European Commission, 2004 Turkish Academy of Sciences, TUBA, GEBIP-Distinguished Young
Scientist Award, 2003. Turkish Academy of Sciences, TUBA, Young Investigator Award, 2002. Fulbright
Fellowship for post-Doctoral Research, 1999 and Damla Cihangir Junior Researcher - Economic
Development Foundation, Research Assistant - Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy,
Associate - EU Information Centre Istanbul, Turkey. European Integration and Transatlantic Relations
http://www.transworld-fp7.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/TW_WP_05.pdf December 2012)
The economic crisis in the EU, with the sovereign debt problems and declining economic growth, is particularly important
Transatlantic economic relations are the strongest in the

world, both in terms of their institutional arrangements and in terms of the volume of exchanges. The path of
European integration, precisely because it was guided by economic integration, has deeply
shaped transatlantic economic relations (Steffenson 2005). A strong, unified
Europe undoubtedly strengthens the transatlantic economic ties by
offering American firms and investors a large, open market with which to
trade and in which to invest. At the same time, since its ultimate goal is to make war materially
for the US.
impossible on the European continent, the European integration process influences the security dimension of
the role of the US

as a sort of regulator of European integration from the end of World War II to the
Lisbon Treaty, offering a generally high degree of support to the process
(Peterson 2004). The EUs role is strengthening multilateralism through its
relations with the US is summarized by the former Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner in
2005 as: In a world of global threats and challenges, global markets and global
media, our security and prosperity increasingly depend on an effective
transatlantic relations (Peterson and Steffenson 2009). In a related manner, one could see
multilateral system
(Ferrero-Waldner 2005). In short,
it is the interplay between
the member states and the supranational institutions in the European

integration process that impacts transatlantic relations , particularly visible in
two different areas, first transatlantic economic relations, particularly trade policy, and second, foreign, security and
Complexities in the integration process then are reflected

onto transatlantic relations, with some issue areas such as trade managed collectively by the EU
defence cooperation.
institutions, whereas some issues areas such as security still subject to intergovernmental bargaining (Yost 2002,
Steinberg 2003, Smith 2006). The EUs evolution as a foreign policy actor emerges as an issue area where the EUs
leadership in both strengthening multilateralism and through its relations with the US remain limited, as is addressed in
the next section.
U.S. hegemony is not sustainable---its only a matter of

time before rivals emerge.
Layne 2007 Christopher (Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University)
American Empire: A Debate p 64-5
Can the United States Be Caught?Upto a point, the primacists are correct. Interms of hard power, there is a yawning gap between the United States and thenext-ranking powers. It
at some point within the

next decade or two, new great power rivals to the United States will
emerge. To put it slightly differently, American primacy cannot be sustained
indefinitely. The relative power position of great powers is dynamic,
not static, which means thattat any point in time some states are gaining inrelative power while others are losing it. Thus, as Paul Kennedy has observed, no
great power ever has been able"to remain permanently ahead of all
will take some time before any other state emergesas a true"peer competitor" of the United States. Nevertheless,
others, because that would imply a freezing of the differentiated pattern of growthrates, technological advance, and military developments which has existedsince time
immemorial."36 Even the most ardent primacists know this to betrue, which is why they concede that
American primacy won't last forever.Indeed, the leading primacists acknowledge, thatat bestthe United Stateswill not
be able to hold onto its primacy much beyond 2030. There are indi-cations, however, that American primacy could end much sooner than that.Already there is evidence suggesting
new great powers are in the process of emerging
that
. This is what the current debate in the United
States about theimplications of China's rise is all about. But China isn't the only factor in play, and transition from U.S. primacy to multipolarity may be much closer than
primacists want to admit. For example, in its survey of likely internationaldevelopments up until 2020, the CIA'sNational Intelligence Council's reportMapping the Global
The likely emergence of China and India as new major global

playerssimilar to the rise of Germany in the 19th century and the UnitedStates in the early 20th century will transform the
geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those of the previous two centuries. In the same way that commentators refer to
Futurenotes:
the 1900s as theAmerican Century, the early 21st century may be seen as the time whensome in the developing world led by China and India came into theirown." In a similar
vein, a recent study by the CIA's Strategic Assessment Groupprojects that by 2020 both China (whichMapping the Global Futurepegs as"by any measure a first-rate military
power" around 2020) and the European Union will come close to matching the United States in terms of their respective shares of world power." For sure, there are always
potential pitfalls in pro-jecting current trends several decades into the future (not least is that it is noteasy to convert economic power into effective military power). But if the
The
real issue is not if American primacy will end, but how soon it will
end.
ongo-ing shift in the distribution of relative power continues, new poles of power inthe international system are likely to emerge during the next decade or two.
Multipolarity is better at combating dependency, prolif,

pandemics, warming and terrorism.
Weber 99 (Steven, Director of the Institute for International Studies,
Berkeley, Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb 2007. p. 48, http://books.google.com/books?

id=fA3Qs_Qq1DwC&pg=PA498&lpg=PA498&dq=22The+truly+dangerous+pl
aces+are+the+points+where+the+subterranean+networks+touch+the+ma
instream+of+global+politics+and+economics.
%22&source=bl&ots=SdXbliwJni&sig=eUmn7HhaoMUKq7jDlnrDfbmYy9U&hl
=en&sa=X&ei=SRcLUOKVE8qAqgHsuLG6Cg&ved=0CFYQ6AEwAA#v=onepag
e&q=%22The%20truly%20dangerous%20places%20are%20the%20points
%20where%20the%20subterranean%20networks%20touch%20the
%20mainstream%20of%20global%20politics%20and%20economics.
%22&f=false 11/01/99)
That's nice work if you can get it. But the United States almost
certainly cannot. Not only because other countries won't let it, but,
more profoundly, because that line of thinking is faulty. The
predominance of American power has many benefits, but the
management of globalization is not one of them. The mobility of ideas,
capital, technology, and people is hardly new. But the rapid advance of
globalization's evils is. Most of that advance has taken place since 1990.
Why? Because what changed profoundly in the 1990s was the polarity of
the international system. For the first time in modern history,
globalization was superimposed onto a world with a single
superpower. What we have discovered in the past 15 years is that it is a
dangerous mixture. The negative effects of globalization since 1990
are not the result of globalization itself. They are the dark side of
American predominance. THE DANGERS OF UNIPOLARIT A
straightforward piece of logic from market economics helps explain
why unipolarity and globalization don't mix. Monopolies, regardless of
who holds them, are almost always bad for both the market and the
monopolist. We propose three simple axioms of "globalization under
unipolarity" that reveal these dangers. Axiom 1: Above a certain threshold
of power, the rate at which new global problems are generated will
exceed the rate at which old problems are fixed Power does two
things in international politics: It enhances the capability of a state to do
things, but it also increases the number of things that a state must
worry about. At a certain point, the latter starts to overtake the
former. It's the familiar law of diminishing returns. Because powerful
states have large spheres of influence and their security and economic
interests touch every region of the world, they are threatened by the
risk of things going wrong-anywhere. That is particularly true for the
United States, which leverages its ability to go anywhere and do
anything through massive debt. No one knows exactly when the law of
diminishing returns will kick in. But, historically, it starts to happen long
before a single great power dominates the entire globe, which is why
large empires from Byzantium to Rome have always reached a point of
unsustainability. That may already be happening to the United States
today, on issues ranging from oil dependency and nuclear
proliferation to pandemics and global warming. What Axiom 1 tells you
is that more U.S. power is not the answer; it's actually part of the
problem. A multipolar world would almost certainly manage the
globe's pressing problems more effectively. The larger the number of
great powers in the global system, the greater the chance that at least
one of them would exercise some control over a given combination of
space, other actors, and problems. Such reasoning doesn't rest on
hopeful notions that the great powers will work together. They might
do so. But even if they don't, the result is distributed governance,
where some great power is interested in most every part of the world through
productive competition Axiom 2: In an increasingly networked world,
places that fall between the networks are very dangerous places-and
there will be more ungoverned zones when there is only one network to join
The second axiom acknowledges that highly connected networks can be
efficient, robust, and resilient to shocks. But in a highly connected world, the
pieces that fall between the networks are increasingly shut off from the
benefits of connectivity. These problems fester in the form of failed
states, mutate like pathogenic bacteria, and, in some cases, reconnect
in subterranean networks such as al Qaeda. The truly dangerous places
are the points where the subterranean networks touch the mainstream
of global politics and economics. What made Afghanistan so
dangerous under the Taliban was not that it was a failed state. It wasn't. It
was a partially failed and partially connected state that worked the
interstices of globalization through the drug trade, counterfeiting,
and terrorism Can any single superpower monitor all the seams and
back alleys of globalization? Hardly. In fact, a lone hegemon is
unlikely to look closely at these problems, because more pressing issues
are happening elsewhere, in places where trade and technology are growing.
By contrast, a world of several great powers is a more interest-rich
environment in which nations must look in less obvious places to
find new sources of advantage. In such a system, it's harder for
troublemakers to spring up, because the cracks and seams of
globalization are held together by stronger ties Axiom 3: Without a real
chance to find useful allies to counter a superpower, opponents will try to
neutralize power, by going underground, going nuclear, or going "bad. Axiom

3 is a story about the preferred strategies of the weak. It's a basic insight of
international relations that states try to balance power. They protect
themselves by joining groups that can hold a hegemonic threat at
bay. But what if there is no viable group to join? In today's unipolar world,
every nation from Venezuela to North Korea is looking for a way to
constrain American power. But in the unipolar world, it's harder for states
to join together to do that. So they turn to other means. They play a different
game. Hamas, Iran, Somalia, North Korea, and Venezuela are not going to
become allies anytime soon. Each is better off finding other ways to make
life more difficult for Washington. Going nuclear is one way.
Counterfeiting U.S. currency is another. Raising uncertainty about oil
supplies is perhaps the most obvious method of all Here's the
important downside of unipolar globalization. In a world with
multiple great powers, many of these threats would be less
troublesome. The relatively weak states would have a choice among
potential partners with which to ally, enhancing their influence.
Without that more attractive choice, facilitating the dark side of globalization
becomes the most effective means of constraining American power The
world is paying a heavy price for the instability created by the
combination of globalization and unipolarity, and the United States
is bearing most of the burden. Consider the case of nuclear
proliferation. There's effectively a market out there for proliferation,
with its own supply (states willing to share nuclear technology) and
demand (states that badly want a nuclear weapon). The overlap of
unipolarity with globalization ratchets up both the supply and
demand, to the detriment of U.S. national security.
U.S. withdrawal and a concurrent shift to multipolarity

would prevent American involvement in major power
wars.
Layne 2006 Christopher (Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public
Service at Texas A&M University) The Peace of Illusions p 170
By devolving full responsibility for their defense to U.S. allies,

offshore balancing would take advantage of the unique geostrategic
advantages that allow the United States to benefit from
multipolarity, exercise a free hand strategically, and avoid being
automatically engulfed in Eurasian conflicts because of its alliance
commitments. As an offshore balancer, the United States would reap
security advantages from a reversion to multipolarity. The United
States is far removed from powerful rivals and shielded from them
both by geography and its own hard power. Consequently, as an
insular great power, the United States is far less vulnerable to the
effects of "instability" than are the major powers of Eurasia, and it could
and shouldinsulate itself from possible future Eurasian great
power wars. For the United States, the risk of conflict and the possible
exposure of the American homeland to attack, rather than arising from any
direct threat to the United States itself; derive directly from the overseas
commitments mandated by hegemony's all-encompassing definition
of U.S. interests.
U.S. withdrawal and a concurrent shift to multipolarity

would prevent American involvement in major power
wars.
Layne 2006 Christopher (Associate Professor in the Bush School of
Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University) The Peace of

Illusions p 170
By devolving full responsibility for their defense to U.S. allies,
offshore balancing would take advantage of the unique geostrategic
advantages that allow the United States to benefit from
multipolarity, exercise a free hand strategically, and avoid being
automatically engulfed in Eurasian conflicts because of its alliance
commitments. As an offshore balancer, the United States would reap
security advantages from a reversion to multipolarity. The United
States is far removed from powerful rivals and shielded from them
both by geography and its own hard power. Consequently, as an
insular great power, the United States is far less vulnerable to the
effects of "instability" than are the major powers of Eurasia, and it could
and shouldinsulate itself from possible future Eurasian great
power wars. For the United States, the risk of conflict and the possible
exposure of the American homeland to attack, rather than arising from any
direct threat to the United States itself; derive directly from the overseas
commitments mandated by hegemony's all-encompassing definition
of U.S. interests.
Helms-Burton Bad
Helms Burton fails only furthered Castros power
Bearden 11
(Time Bearden is a political journalsit and economic analyst for Washington Report on the Hemisphere. Helms Burton: Resurrecting
the Iron Curtain http://www.coha.org/helms-burton-act-resurrecting-the-iron-curtain/. 06/10/11.)
this embargo has failed to achieve its stated goals of removing the
Castro brothers from power. Since the embargo went into effect a half century ago, the Castro
regime's power has persisted. The codification of the embargo as official U.S.
Furthermore,
policy under the Helms-Burton Act has done nothing to alter the
status quo with Havana . The embargo has not effectively wrought the expected damage to the Cuban
after the passage of
Helms-Burton, FDI rose to USD 74 million by 2000, and in 2008 a full USD
185 million reached Cuban shores. Despite U.S. attempts to cast out the Castro brothers by
way of economic sanctions, Helms-Burton has not effectively prevented the
economy. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Cuba was a paltry USD 2 million in 1990;
Cuban economy from receiving economic support elsewhere. Indeed, it

can be argued that the embargo may have only strengthened the cause of the Castro regime. It has stoked
anti-U.S. sentiment among the people of the island, and provided an easy
scapegoat on which the Castros can heap blame for economic problems. This has made the HelmsBurton Act a "regalo del cielo , [or] a gift from heaven for Castro," as stated by Professor
Joaqui?n Roy of the University of Miami. The embargo on Cuba has only hurt U.S. interests,
and Titles I & II of the Helms-Burton Act have made it difficult to modify or end this malevolent policy.
Helms Burton destroys Canadian trade relations

McKenna 10
(Peter McKenna is a foreign affairs journalist for the Canadian Foreign Policy. THE CHRTIEN YEARS: EVALUATING 'CONSTRUCTIVE
ENGAGEMENT' Spring 2010.)
It was during this same period, and even after the Helms-Burton law (the innocuous
sounding Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act) was promulgated in early 1996, that the Chrtien
Canadian
officials, much to the delight of the Cuban government, took their case to various
international fora, passed domestic "antidote" legislation to counter
the application of Helms-Burton, and threatened to challenge its
provisions under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) dispute settlement process. As
International Trade Minister Art Eggleton once explained, "HelmsBurton is an unwarranted move to extend the arm of US law into
trade between other countries" (Canada, 1996: 1 ; McKenna, 1997). Canada could
ill afford, especially given its dependence on the US export market and trade in general, to
permit US laws to have extraterritorial application for Canadian
businesses and for the wider world trading system. Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axworthy
declared, It just confirms my own deep anxiety that Helms-Burton is causing a
government launched diplomatic pressure to have the anti-Cuba law rescinded.
real disruption in the larger trading system.
That's something we've all worked
almost a decade to bring about, which is an effective world trading system with a set of rules, is going to
be thrown off track by Helms-Burton (Canada, 1996: 1). It was also clear that
the Chrtien
Liberals viewed Helms-Burton as an attack on Canada's Cuba policy

and its preference for engaging and dialoguing with the Cubans.
According to Minister for International Cooperation, Pierre Pettigrew,
US allies are against Helms-Burton

Sanchez 3
(Omar Sanchez is a political journalist for the International Journal. The sanctions malaise: the case of Cuba (Spring 2003): P. 347-372.)
Most of America's closest allies, including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union,
condemned the law. All have passed retaliatory legislation making it
illegal for their citizens to comply with the law and allowing them to
counter-sue US companies or citizens to recoup any losses to those same
entities in American courts. Similarly, the General Assembly of the
Organization of American States voted unanimously to reject Helms-Burton and to
call on the Inter-American Judicial Committee to vote on its
legitimacy. The Committee's decision was unanimous - the act violated international law on at least
eight counts. Surprised by the uproar over Helms-Burton, the United States desperately attempted to
cajole dissenting governments into supporting it. Engaging in shuttle diplomacy, the administration of
President Bill Clinton sent special representative Stuart Eizenstat to Mexico City, Ottawa, and Brussels, but
to no avail. As the Economist put it: 'all governments said they would love to see democracy in Cuba; all
Canada's foreign affairs minister,

'We object to the basic
premise that the Congress of the United States can tell us and
others how we must treat third countries.'(19) Clinton signed Helms-Burton to
flatly rejected Helms-Burton as a way of getting it.'(18)
Lloyd Axworthy, summed up the indignant attitude of the allies:
placate the organized Cuban-American voters of Florida and New Jersey but delayed the application of title
III provisions to appease Europeans, Canadians, and Mexicans. In the end, he pleased no one.(20) Some
US allies want it eradicated.

one of the intentions of Helms-Burton was to deprive Castro
of hard currency, allegedly a means by which democracy could be brought to the island.
Because the sanctions are not multilateral, their effect is
considerably milder than intended.(21) The Clinton foreign policy team worked
domestic constituencies want the law to apply fully;
Furthermore,
desperately to try to convince the Europeans of the merits of the law. Seeking to prevent a rift, Clinton
declared: 'working with our allies, and not against them, we can avoid a division that the Cuban regime will
surely try to exploit.'(22) In the end, there was a rift, and Castro did exploit it, at home and abroad. To the
dismay of Washington, Canada effectively strengthened its relations with Cuba.(23)
***could be an IL to humanitarian aid?*** Helms Burton

halts neccisary aid and food to suffering individuals
SELA 12
(Caracas, October 29- The Latin American Council of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System (SELA), gathered in its Ministerial
Session in Caracas on 19 October 2012, urged the Member States of the organization to adopt or implement legislative, administrative and/or judicial measures, as
appropriate, so as to prevent the implementation within the framework of the extraterritorial regulations that affect or may affect the economic, financial and commercial
relations with Cuba., Follow-up report on the application of the Helms-Burton Law, 2011 2012 http://www.sela.org/attach/258/EDOCS/SRed/2013/02/T023600004963-0Follow-up_report_on_the_application_of_the_Helms-Burton_Law,_2011_-_2012.pdf. 10-29-12.)
Cuba is one of the countries with
an ageing population in Latin American and
130,000
people suffer from Alzheimers disease or a related form of
dementia. Treating these patients is made difficult by Cubas inability
to obtain the principal cholinesterase inhibitors, in particular the drug Aricept
Caribbean, with 18.1% of its population aged over 60. Among this population, some
(Donepezilo), produced by the United States

for the new atypical antipsychotic medications,
company Pfizer. The same is true
intended to control the psychic and behavioural
institutionalization. Permanent Secretariat in addition, Cuba

is still not permitted to purchase new United-States-made
cystostatics for certain illnesses, and is still being denied access to medical literature,
symptoms that are the primary causes of
Internet sites created to facilitate the free exchange of information, and software that are essential for
scientific modelling and simulation and allow users to view advanced image-processing systems for
losses in the food sector, in the

amounted to some US$ 131,572,967, owing
diagnosing diseases. From March 2011 to March 2012,

opinion of the Cuban
government,
to many factors,
including the need to purchase food from distant markets, with the concomitant
increase in insurance and freight charges, and the additional cost of keeping resources in inventory.
International Law
Removing the Embargo is key to Cuban medicine; on the
brink of a humanitarian crisis, several warrants
AAWH Report 97
American Association for World Health Report Summary of Findings. ""Denial of Food and Medicine:." Impact of the U.S
Embargo on Health and Nutrition in Cuba. N.p., Mar. 1997. Web. 06 Mar. 2013.
the
U.S. embargo of Cuba has dramatically harmed the health and
nutrition of large numbers of ordinary Cuban citizens. As documented by the
attached report, it is our expert medical opinion that the U.S. embargo has caused a
significant rise in suffering-and even deaths-in Cuba. For several decades the
U.S. embargo has imposed significant financial burdens on the
Cuban health care system. But since 1992 the number of unmet medical
needs patients going without essential drugs or doctors performing medical
procedures without adequate equipment-has sharply accelerated. This trend is directly linked
to the fact that in 1992 the U.S. trade embargo-one of the most stringent embargoes of its
kind, prohibit[s] the sale of food and sharply restricting the sale of
medicines and medical equipment-was further tightened by the 1992 Cuban Democracy
Act. A humanitarian catastrophe has been averted only because the
After a year-long investigation, the American Association for World Health has determined that
Cuban government has maintained a high level of budgetary

support
for a health care system designed to deliver primary and preventive health care to all of its
the
U.S. embargo of food and the de facto embargo on medical supplies
has wreaked havoc with the island's model primary health care
system. The crisis has been compounded by the country's generally
weak economic resources and by the loss of trade with the Soviet
bloc. Recently four factors have dangerously exacerbated the human effects of this 37-year-old trade
citizens. Cuba still has an infant mortality rate half that of the city of Washington, D.C.. Even so,
embargo. All four factors stem from little-understood provisions of the U.S. Congress' 1992 Cuban
Democracy Act (CDA): A Ban on Subsidiary Trade: Beginning in 1992, the Cuban Democracy Act imposed
This ban has severely constrained Cuba's

ability to import medicines and medical supplies from third country
sources.
a ban on subsidiary trade with Cuba.
Moreover, recent corporate buyouts and mergers between major U.S. and European pharmaceutical companies have further reduced the number of companies permitted to do business with Cuba. Licensing Under the Cuban Democracy Act: The U.S.
Treasury and Commerce Departments are allowed in principle to license individual sales of medicines and medical supplies, ostensibly for humanitarian reasons to mitigate the embargo's impact on health care delivery. In practice, according to U.S. corporate executives, the licensing
provisions are so arduous as to have had the opposite effect. As implemented, the licensing provisions actively discourage any medical commerce. The number of such licenses granted-or even applied for since 1992-is minuscule. Numerous licenses for medical equipment and
medicines have been denied on the grounds that these exports "would be detrimental to U.S. foreign policy interests." Shipping Since 1992:The embargo has prohibited ships from loading or unloading cargo in U.S. ports for 180 days after delivering cargo to Cuba. This provision has
strongly discouraged shippers from delivering medical equipment to Cuba. Consequently shipping costs have risen dramatically and further constricted the flow of food, medicines, medical supplies and even gasoline for ambulances. From 1993 to 1996, Cuban companies spent an
Charity is an inadequate
alternative to free trade in medicines, medical supplies and food.
Donations from U.S. non-governmental organizations and
international agencies do not begin to compensate for the hardships
inflicted by the embargo on the Cuban public health system. In any case,
additional $8.7 million on shipping medical imports from Asia, Europe and South America rather than from the neighboring United States. Humanitarian Aid:
delays in licensing and other restrictions have severely discouraged charitable contributions from the U.S.
The
declining availability of food stuffs, medicines and such basic medical
supplies as replacement parts for thirty-year-old X-ray machines is taking a tragic
Taken together, these four factors have placed severe strains on the Cuban health system.
human toll. The embargo has closed so many windows that in some instances Cuban
physicians have found it impossible to obtain life-saving medicines
from any source, under any circumstances. Patients have died . In
general, a relatively sophisticated and comprehensive public health system is being
systematically stripped of essential resources. High-technology hospital wards

devoted to cardiology and nephrology are particularly under siege. But so too are such basic aspects of the
health system as water quality and food security. Specifically, the AAWH's team of nine medical experts
the following health problems affected by the embargo:

Malnutrition: The outright ban on the sale of American foodstuffs has contributed to serious
identified
nutritional deficits, particularly among pregnant women, leading to an increase in low birth-weight babies.
In addition, food shortages were linked to a devastating outbreak of neuropathy numbering in the tens of
Water
Quality: The embargo is severely restricting Cuba's access to water treatment chemicals and sparethousands. By one estimate, daily caloric intake dropped 33 percent between 1989 and 1993.
parts for the island's water supply system. This has led to serious cutbacks in supplies of safe drinking
water, which in turn has become a factor in the rising incidence of morbidity and mortality rates from
water-borne diseases. Medicines & Equipment: Of the 1,297 medications available in Cuba in
1991, physicians now have access to only 889 of these same medicines - and many of these are available
only intermittently. Because most major new drugs are developed by U.S. pharmaceuticals, Cuban
physicians have access to less than 50 percent of the new medicines available on the world market. Due to
the direct or indirect effects of the embargo, the most routine medical supplies are in short supply or
entirely absent from some Cuban clinics.
Medical Information:
Though information materials have been exempt from the U.S. trade embargo since 1
988, the AAWH study concludes that in practice very little such information goes into Cuba or comes out of the island due to travel restrictions, currency regulations and shipping difficulties. Scientists and citizens of both countries suffer as a result. Paradoxically, the embargo harms
some U.S. citizens by denying them access to the latest advances in Cuban medical research, including such products as Meningitis B vaccine, cheaply produced interferon and streptokinase, and an AIDS vaccine currently under-going clinical trials with human volunteers. Finally, the
Few
other embargoes have so restricted medical commerce as to deny
the availability of life-saving medicines to ordinary citizens . Such an
AAWH wishes to emphasize the stringent nature of the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba. Few other embargoes in recent history - including those targeting Iran, Libya, South Africa, Southern Rhodesia, Chile or Iraq - have included an outright ban on the sale of food.
embargo appears to violate the most basic international charters

and conventions governing human rights , including the United Nations charter, the
charter of the Organization of American States, and the articles of the Geneva Convention governing the
treatment of civilians during wartime.
Lifting the embargo helps international relations

Lamrani 05-31 (Salim Lamrani is a lecturer at Paris Sorbonne Paris IV
University and Paris-Est Marne-la-Valle University and French journalist,

specialist on relations between Cuba and the US . President of the French
Senate: 'The United States Ought to Lift Its Economic Sanctions Against
Cuba' http://www.huffingtonpost.com/salim-lamrani/president-of-the-frenchs_b_3365482.html. 05-31-13.)
SL: The United States has imposed economic sanctions on Cuba for
over half a century. They affect adversely the most vulnerable groups in this society.
The vast majority of the international community - 186 countries in 2012 - is
in favor of lifting them immediately. Has the time not come for Washington to
normalize relations with Cuba? JPB: Far be it from me to meddle in the relations between two
sovereign countries, but if I must give my opinion, I would say that
the time is now, more
than ever, to regain a sense of the realities involved . Only 170 kilometers
separate these two nations that, throughout the course of history, have always regarded each
Now it is time for these two peoples to begin to walk

side by side, the one next to the other. It would be in everyone's interest if
they were to set aside their differences and view the future
collectively, through a peaceful lens. It is time to end the economic
sanctions that have been in force for fifty years and that cause so much
suffering to the Cuban people.
other face to face.
Embargo has been condemned by the EU sanctions are

only being increased
Naber 12 (Peter Naber is a writer for the Pace International Law review.
United Nations Condemns Cuba Embargo. Should the Embargo be Lifted?
http://pilr.blogs.law.pace.edu/2012/11/17/united-nations-condemns-cubaembargo-should-the-embargo-be-lifted/ 11/17/12.)
This past Tuesday, November 13, 2012, the United Nations General Assembly
voted 188-3 to condemn the United States commercial, economic, and financial
embargo against Cuba for the 21st year in a row. (Fox News). The embargo was initially
enacted in 1960 and became a near total embargo in 1962. Speaking before the General Assembly on
Tuesday, Cuban
Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez rallied against the

embargo calling the U.S policy inhumane, failed and anachronistic. (Fox News).
Rodriguez said that this policy is against the national interest of the United States and harms the interests
of its citizens and companies during a period of economic crisis and high unemployment. (Fox News). He
despite President Obamas offer of a new start with

Cuba following the 2008 election, the reality of the last four years
has been characterized by a persistent tightening of the economic,
commercial, and financial blockade
further stated, that
. (Fox News). A United States Senior adviser for western hemisphere affairs, Ronald D. Godard, defended the embargo as one of the tools in our overall efforts to encourage
respect for the human rights and basic freedom to which the United Nations itself is committed. (Fox News). The Obama administration has said that restrictions on travel and remittances have eased, but the United States is not prepared to lift the sanctions entirely until the
communist-run nation enacts more far-reaching political and economic reforms. (Fox News).
Medical Advantage
Uniqueness
Now Is Key, Recent Travel Easements Destroy Cuban
Health Care
Rodriguez 12 (Andrea, Correspondent Associated Press, CUBA TO FREE
DOCTORS FROM ONEROUS TRAVEL RULES, Jul 18, 2012,

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cuba-free-doctors-onerous-travel-rules)
Cuba is eliminating longstanding restrictions on health care
professionals' overseas travel as part of a broader migration reform
that takes effect next week, an island doctor told The Associated Press on
Monday.
Hospital directors learned of the new policy, which takes effect Jan. 14, in a
Saturday meeting with Health Minister Roberto Morales and word of the
change was relayed in hospital staff meetings, according to the doctor, who
attended one of the subsequent gatherings.
The minister's directive: "A doctor will be treated like any other
citizen starting now and can exit freely, as long as the destination
country allows it" by issuing an entry visa, said the physician, who
spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to
foreign journalists.
Doctors Leaving
Millman 11 (Joel, Reporter Wall Street Journal, New Prize in Cold War:
Cuban Doctors, Jan 15, 2011,

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020373100457604564071111
8766.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLTopStories)
Dr. Ramrez is part of a wave of Cubans who have defected to the U.S. since
2006 under the little-known Cuban Medical Professional Parole
immigration program, which allows Cuban doctors and some other
health workers who are serving their government overseas to enter
the U.S. immediately as refugees. Data released to The Wall Street
Journal under the Freedom of Information Act shows that, through Dec. 16,
1,574 CMPP visas have been issued by U.S. consulates in 65 countries.
Impacts
Castro 07 (Fidel, Please Tell Me You Know Who This Is, March 2007, The
Brain Drain, http://en.cubadebate.cu/reflections-fidel/2007/07/17/braindrain/#respond)

Brain drain deals a double blow to weak economies, which not only
lose their best human resources and the money spent training them,
but then have to pay an estimated $5.6 billion a year to employ expatriates.
The phrase brain drain was coined in the 1960s, when the United States
began to hoard UK doctors. In that case, one developed country dispossessed
another; one emerged from the Second World War in 1944 with 80 percent of
the worlds gold reserve in bullions, the other had been severely hit and
deprived of its empire in the course of the war.
Causes Health Care Collapse

Ritter (Distinguished Research Professor Emeritus of Carleton College,
Castrocare in Crisis: Will Lifting the Embargo on Cuba Make Things Worse?,
Feb. 15, 2013, http://thecubaneconomy.com/articles/2013/02/castrocare-incrisis-will-lifting-the-embargo-on-cuba-make-things-worse/)
Overlooked in these dreamy discussions of lifestyle improvements, however,
is that Cubas health-care industry will likely be radically affected by
any serious easing in trade and travel restrictions between the
United States and Cuba. If policymakers on both sides of the Florida
Straits do not take great care, the tiny Caribbean nation could
swiftly be robbed of its greatest triumph. First, its public health
network could be devastated by an exodus of thousands of welltrained Cuban physicians and nurses. Second, for-profit U.S. companies
could transform the remaining health-care system into a prime destination for
medical tourism from abroad. The very strategies that the Cuban government
has employed to develop its system into a major success story have rendered
it ripe for the plucking by the U.S. medical industry and by foreigners eager
for affordable, elective surgeries in a sunny climate.
Scenario 1: Causes Carrib. Instability

Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED
ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS? 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?

AD=ADA433074)
. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical
fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these
groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or
throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism
gets more complicated . Such activity could increase direct attacks
and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile
democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a
failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military
forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency . The
ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment
throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems. U.S.
domestic political support is also turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S.
totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in
determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be flawed, because
recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear
softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily
subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations.
(Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what
The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state

90 miles off its coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs, does
not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional
American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military
leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings were
happens then?
sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and
economic resources. There is justifiable concern that
Africa and the Caucasus region are
potential hot spots for terrorist activity, so these areas should be secure. North
Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also
cannot ignore China . What if China resorts to aggression to resolve
the Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could
conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are
known and potential situations that could easily require all or many
of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can
the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban
situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40 years remain in effect with
vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro
Cuba?
Caribbean terrorism leads to attack on the US---theyll use

bioweapons
Bryan 1 (Anthony T. Bryan, director of the North-South Centers Caribbean
Program, 10-21-2001. CFR, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland
Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, p.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and
%20_homeland_%20security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no
exception. Already the linkages between drug trafficking and terrorism are
clear in countries like Colombia and Peru, and such connections have similar
potential in the Caribbean. The security of major industrial complexes in
some Caribbean countries is vital. Petroleum refineries and major
industrial estates in Trinidad, which host more than 100 companies that
produce the majority of the worlds methanol, ammonium sulphate, and 40
percent of U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), are vulnerable
targets. Unfortunately, as experience has shown in Africa, the Middle East,
and Latin America, terrorists are likely to strike at U.S. and European
interests in Caribbean countries. Security issues become even more
critical when one considers the possible use of Caribbean countries
by terrorists as bases from which to attack the United States . An
airliner hijacked after departure from an airport in the northern Caribbean or

the Bahamas can be flying over South Florida in less than an hour. Terrorists
can sabotage or seize control of a cruise ship after the vessel leaves
a Caribbean port. Moreover, terrorists with false passports and visas issued
in the Caribbean may be able to move easily through passport controls in
Canada or the United States. (To help counter this possibility, some countries
have suspended "economic citizenship" programs to ensure that known
terrorists have not been inadvertently granted such citizenship.) Again,
Caribbean countries are as vulnerable as anywhere else to the
clandestine manufacture and deployment of bio logical weapons
within national borders.
Bioterror leads to extinction

Anders Sandberg 8, is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of
Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in

Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University
of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. irkovi, senior research associate at
the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics
at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro, 9/8/8, How can we
reduce the risk of human extinction?, Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists,http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-wereduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those
from natural ones. Although great progress has been made in reducing the
number of nuclear weapons in the world, humanity is still threatened
by the possibility of a global thermonuclear war and a resulting nuclear
winter. We may face even greater risks from emerging
technologies . Advances in synthetic biology might make it possible
to engineer pathogens capable of extinction-level pandemics . The
knowledge, equipment, and materials needed to engineer pathogens are
more accessible than those needed to build nuclear weapons. And unlike
other weapons, pathogens are self-replicating, allowing a
small arsenal to become exponentially destructive. Pathogens have
been implicated in the extinctions of many wild species. Although most
pandemics "fade out" by reducing the density of susceptible populations,
pathogens with wide host ranges in multiple species can reach even isolated
individuals. The intentional or unintentional release
of engineered pathogens with high transmissibility, latency, and
lethality might be capable of causing human extinction . While such an
event seems unlikely today, the likelihood may increase as biotechnologies
continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.
Solvency
Lifting Embargo Solves, Gives Medicine Access
Amnesty International 09 (Humanitarian Organization, THE US
EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RIGHTS,
July 25, 2009,
http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/AMR25/007/2009/en/51469f8b-73f847a2-a5bd-f839adf50488/amr250072009eng.pdf)
The CDA states that exports of medicines and medical supplies,
equipment and instruments shall not be restricted. However, these
products may be exported to Cuba, from the USA or US subsidiaries
based in another country only if the President determines that the
United States Government is able to verify, by onsite inspections
and other appropriate means, that the exported item is to be used
for the purposes for which it was intended and only for the use and
benefit of the Cuban people. This requirement does not apply to
donations of medicines for humanitarian purposes to NGOs in Cuba. However,
by imposing on-site verifications, the CDA makes the export of
medicines and medical supplies to Cuba virtually impossible.
According to the US Department of Commerce, under the CDA, the onsite monitoring requirement applies to all sales, and also applies to
all donations of medical equipment, instruments and supplies.
Monitoring also applies to donations of medicines except to
nongovernmental organizations for humanitarian purposes. In
addition, a special licence must be obtained from the US government
prior to the export of any of these goods and export license
applications for most goods are subject to a policy of denial,
although some specific goods are subject to case-by-case review.
The government of the USA was certainly not able to carry out the on-site
inspections and therefore the burden fell on the exporters, making them
subject to severe sanctions as included in the CACR if the procedures were
not followed (see above).
Lifting Embargo Solves Shortages

Berry (Michele, MD, Effect of the U.S. Embargo and Economic Decline on
Health
In Cuba, Jan 18, 2000
http://www.hawaii.edu/hivandaids/Effect_of_the_U.S._Embargo_and_Economic
_Decline_on_Health_in_Cuba.pdf)
However, the socialist bloc crumbled in the late 1980s, and the U.S. embargo
suddenly became much more of a threat to the Cuban health care system.
Cuba lost $4 to $6 billion annually in subsidized trade, and almost overnight,
imports required hard currency (3). Cuba no longer had access through the
eastern bloc to the raw materials needed to manufacture pharmaceutical
products, and lack of currency made it difficult to purchase drugs and medical
equipment in western Europe. The Cuban Democracy Act of 1992
severely aggravated the situation by prohibiting foreign subsidiaries
of U.S. companies from trading with Cuba. This act reflects one of
the few sanctions worldwide that explicitly includes food and further
defines trading restrictions that block access to medical supplies.
the human consequences of these decisions were all too evident in
Cuban streets and on the wards of Cuban hospitals. Food was
obviously scarce in bodegas, or grocery stores, as was the
technologically advanced machinery that the Cubans had been so
proud to display 15 years before. The median weight of children and
adults has decreased dramatically because the amount of food
supplied at workplaces and schools has been substantially reduced
(3). Several public health catastrophes on the island have been
directly attributed to the U.S. embargo (810). In 1992 and 1993, more
than 50 000 cases of optic and peripheral neuropathy occurred. This
epidemic was attributed to reduced nutrient intake, which was caused
by food shortages, and local tobacco use, which increased the risk for
blindness. Use of costly multivitamin supplements dramatically decreased the
incidence of blindness (9, 10). In addition, an epidemic of esophageal
stenosis in toddlers who inadvertently drank liquid lye is believed to be the
result of a soap shortage that caused Cubans to use lye as a substitute (8). A
1994 outbreak of the GuillainBarre syndrome in Havana was caused by
water that had been contaminated with Campylobacter species because
chlorination chemicals were not available for purification (8). Serious
shortages of insulin, other medications, and vaccines have also
taken their toll, especially on the health of children
Science Diplomacy
Uniqueness
THE EMBARGO HAS LIMITED SCIENTIFIC COOPERATION,
LIMITING SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERIES
Coll '07 (Alberto; Professor of Law and President of the International Human
Rights Law Institute; HARMING HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE NAME OF PROMOTING

THEM: THE CASE OF THE CUBAN EMBARGO; UCLA Journal of International
Law and
Foreign Affairs; Fall 2007; http://msbarnes.com/wpcontent/uploads/2011/08/Cuba-debate-documents.pdf)
The Chairman of the U.S. Chemistry Association, Charles Casey,
criticized the U.S. embargo, stating that "U.S. measures against the
island country, including a prohibition on free travel of Cuban and American
scientists, have hindered the exchange of information and scientific
cooperation between the two countries." In 2005, the U.S.
government denied visas to more than 60 Cuban scholars who had
been invited to attend the Latin American Studies Association's
annual meeting in Las Vegas. The academics invited to attend the
conference "were to give papers and lectures and engage in
intellectual exchanges ..." Such large-scale denial of visas had been
unprecedented prior to 2004. In fact, the U.S. government had not refused
visas to Cuban academics to attend this conference since the conference's
inception in 1979. By way of explanation, the U.S. State
Department stated only that "it is the State Department's view that Cuban
officials should not travel freely in the United States." According to State
Department spokesperson Richard Boucher, "all
Cuban academics are government [*247] officials" and "as far as I am aware,
none of these individuals has distinguished himself or herself for free thinking
and questioning of anything the regime has said." Pointing out that Cuba's
universities are state-run, Boucher argued that these "academics are
government officials "who wanted to enjoy the hospitality of the United
States and spread the party line.'" However, as one observer wondered, "how
Castro suffers from the grounding of scholars defies explanation."
Uniqueness: No Coop
Knight NO Date Cited (Franklin, Professor of History John
Hopkins, 9 WAYS FOR US TO TALK TO CUBA AND FOR
CUBA TO TALK TO US,
http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/9-Ways-for-US-totalk-to-Cuba-and-for-Cuba-to-talk-to-US.pdf)
Academic cooperation: Broad academic cooperation between the
U.S. and Cuba in public health, biotechnology, arts education and
environmental issues is impermissible under current sanctions. A
democratic society cherishes the free flow and exchange of ideas; the U.S.
should act in accordance with its values and resume academic exchange.
IL: Embargo Stifles Scientific Exchange

Thorsteinsdttir 04 (Halla, Professor of Genomics, Bioethics and Public
Policy at the University of Toronto, Cubainnovation through synergy, Dec.

2004,
http://www.jointcentreforbioethics.ca/rss/news/documents/nature_cuba.pdf)
Despite strong government commitment, Cubas health biotechnology sector
faces a lack of financial resources. The economic conditions in Cuba are
problematic, and the government does not have an impressive track record of
building a strong and diversified economy. Limited access to international
credit has made it harder for the country to engage in ambitious restructuring
schemes, such as those taking place in Eastern Europe, and Cuba continues
to struggle to pay off its debt. The US trade embargo has limited the
economic options for Cuba, including development of the health
biotechnology sector. For example, Cuba is forced to import research
equipment from countries other than the United Statesa situation
that not only consumes time but adds to the cost. Another challenge
imposed by the poor Cuba-US relations is the increasing difficulty
that Cuban scientists face obtaining visas to enter the United States
to attend conferences and other related activities. Also, even though
the US Treasury Department has as of April 2004 officially permitted
papers from embargoed countries to be edited and published in US
journals, the uncertainties of the embargo have made it difficult for
Cuban papers to be accepted in US journals. The embargo therefore
restricts the knowledge flow involving Cuban scientists in the
international scientific community and adds costs, because Cubans
have to attend conferences that are held in countries other than the
United States. Another challenge is the dominance of US firms in the
global health biotechnology sector. This may limit the options for
Cuba in developing joint ventures, strategic alliances and licensing
of their technologies.
IL: Embargo Limits Biotech Exports

Starr 04 (Douglas, Director of the Center for Science and Medical
Journalism at Boston University, The Cuban Biotech Revolution, Dec 2004,

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.12/cuba.html?
pg=2&topic=cuba&topic_set=)
Forty years after it began, Washington's embargo remains a
punishing weapon. Not only are US companies banned from doing
business with Cuba, but so are their foreign subsidiaries. No
freighter that visits a Cuban port may dock in the US for the next six
months. For a Cuban product to reach US companies, the makers
have to prove a "compelling national interest" to the US Office of
Foreign Assets Control. Consolidation in the drug industry has made
things worse, says Ismael Clark, president of the Cuban Academy of
Sciences. "You'd have a supplier for several years, and suddenly you'd
get a letter from the company saying, 'We can't supply you anymore
because our firm was bought by an American transnational.'"
IL: Denies US Access to Science

Early 11 (James, Director of Policy Cato Institute, Oct. 21, 2011, Ten
Reasons to Oppose the Embargo, http://www.democracyinamericas.org/blogpost/10-reasons-to-oppose-the-embargo/)

The embargo isolates the U.S. government and cuts off contact
between Cubans and Americans
The embargo isolates and weakens U.S. policy makers and U.S.
policies at a time of increasing integration between Latin America
and the Caribbean and the global south. U.S. citizens are denied
ready access to highly praised Cuban achievements in the arts and
culture, education, medical and technological advances, and deprived of
sustained engagements with Cuban citizens and the Cuban government to
share our national virtues. It is time that our policy makers support the
resolve of its citizens and joins the majority of nations in non-antagonistic
diplomatic protocols with Cuba by abolishing the embargo and normalizing
relations with Cuba.
Solvency
Impact Both Countries Could Benefit
Bourne No Date Cited (Peter, Special Assistant for Health Issues in the
Carter White House, 9 Ways for US to talk to Cuba and for Cuba to talk to US,
http://www.democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/9-Ways-for-US-to-talk-to-Cuba-andfor-Cuba-to-talk-to-US.pdf)
Medical cooperation: U.S. sanctions against Cubas health care system have
had the paradoxical effect of fostering breakthroughs in Cuban research on
cancer drugs and immunizations that are unavailable to U.S. citizens. Both
countries could benefit from developments in health education and
research if medical sanctions were repealed.
Center for Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology (CIGB) Sometimes
referred to as Cuban biotechs flagship research center, CIGB is a
large research-production complex, with some 550 scientists and
engineers on staff, devoted primarily to the development of
vaccines, pharmaceuticals, and plant molecular biology. Its vaccine
division is developing new formulations using genetic engineering
techniques. CIGB, together with four other institutions, developed the
worlds first vaccine using a synthetic antigen against Haemophilus
influenzae type b. It also markets a pentavalent vaccine, developed
with the Finlay Institute, against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis,
hepatitis B, and Haemophilus influenza type b. Among its leading
exports are a recombinant hepatitis B vaccine (HEBERBIOVAC-HB) and the
Gavac vaccine against Boophilus microplus cattle ticks. Other important
recombinant products are Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF), recombinant
Streptokinase, and Interferon.
Co-Op Beneficial and Spills Over to rest of the World

Lempinen 12 (Edward, Public Information Officer at the World Academy of
the Sciences, May 1, 2012,
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2012/0501cuba.shtml)
The recent visits showed that the Cuban mindset is really ready to reach
out, said Peter Agre, a Nobel laureate in chemistry and a former president of
AAAS, who returned in March from his third visit to the nation. The
scientists would have no trouble working together... The Cubans are
understandably proud of their science, and they see us very
positively. I would anticipate if we could normalize relations and do
science as a starting point, then really good things could happen.
The possibility of open scientific exchange between researchers in
Cuba and the U.S. can only bring increased benefits for both
scientific communities, and of course, for the people in their
respective countries, said Sergio Jorge Pastrana, foreign secretary of the
Academia de Ciencias de Cuba.
The kind of scientific development that took place in Cuba for the last halfcentury has produced original results that have been internationally
recognized as being in the frontiers of knowledge in several fields. Science,
along with technology and innovation, has produced outcomes that

are important for societies not only in Cuba and the United States,
but in neighboring countries of the Caribbean, and for sustainable
development everywhere.
Science diplomacy solves the internal link to every major

impact resolves issues related to warming, resource
shortages, economies and public healthFederoff 8 (Nina
Federoff, Penn State professor and Obama secretary of state science and technology adviser,
TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE SCIENCE

SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND SCIENCE EDUCATION
http://gop.science.h...l2/fedoroff.pdf)
April 2 8.
The welfare and stability of countries and regions in many parts of

the globe require a concerted effort by the developed world to
address the causal factors that render countries fragile and cause
states to fail. Countries that are unable to defend their people
against starvation, or fail to provide economic opportunity, are
susceptible to extremist ideologies, autocratic rule, and abuses of
human rights. As well, the world faces common threats, among them
climate change, energy and water shortages, public health
emergencies, environmental degradation, poverty, food insecurity,
and religious extremism. These threats can undermine the national
security of the United States, both directly and indirectly. Many are
blind to political boundaries, becoming regional or global threats.
The United States has no monopoly on knowledge in a globalizing
world and the scientific challenges facing humankind are enormous.
Addressing these common challenges demands common solutions
and necessitates scientific cooperation, common standards, and
common goals. We must increasingly harness the power of American
ingenuity in science and technology through strong partnerships
with the science community in both academia and the private sector,
in the U.S. and abroad among our allies, to advance U.S. interests in
foreign policy. There are also important challenges to the ability of states to
supply their populations with sufficient food. The still-growing human
population, rising affluence in emerging economies, and other factors have
combined to create unprecedented pressures on global prices of staples such
as edible oils and grains. Encouraging and promoting the use of
contemporary molecular techniques in crop improvement is an essential goal
for US science diplomacy.
Impact
Science Diplomacy is effective, it ensures global
cooperation
Turekian and Wang No Date Cited [Vaughan Turekian, Chief
International Officer of the American Association for the Advancement of

Science and Tom Wang, Director of International Cooperatoin for the
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Building an
International Network of Knowledge]
In the decades since the depths of the Cold War, scientists and
engineers in the United States and Russia have built a special bond.
As relations between their governments have shifted from acute
tension to the thaw of dtente to friendship and back to mutual
wariness, our researchers have worked side-by-side on a range of
successful projects. This cooperation has been critical in building
and enhancing relationships that, while outside of the political
realm, have helped to promote understanding and trust among the
our people. And the relationships produced important science in fields
ranging from physics, health, and space exploration to the development of
Internet-based information-sharing networks and the control of nuclear
proliferation. Today, the world is a vastly different place than it was 40 years
ago, or even 10 years ago. Though tensions remain among countries, we no
longer struggle with the strong polarization of national philosophies that
characterized the Cold War. At the same time, common issues confront us on
a global scale. The current financial crisis, international terrorism, the
changing climate, and competition over energy supplies all show how
interrelated we are. National leaders are ever more aware of the reality that
solving these and other challenges will require the innovative power of
science, engineering and technology. Russias leaders understand that, and
U.S. President Barack Obama does, too. These developments suggest
that science diplomacy is entering an important new era, and that, if
it is employed to help nations share knowledge and seek common
solutions, it can be a powerful force of prosperity and peace.
Science diplomacy is not a new concept between Russia and the United
States. During the Cold War, despite the geopolitical deadlock between the
Soviet Union and the United States, the two powers used scientific exchanges
to initiate a thaw. The relationships that grew from those first tentative
agreements have since produced vast knowledge, billions of dollars in
economic activity and real improvement in human well-being. At a time of
financial crisis and renewed geopolitical tension, there is an inclination to pull
back from such cooperation. Indeed, there is an unspoken sense among some
U.S. policymakers that science cooperation is a one-way street, a form of aid
dispensed or withheld to achieve our own national ends. But this view is
short-sighted. Two years ago, the United States and Russia renewed an
ambitious science-cooperation agreement; the U.S. Department of State cited
a range of valuable accomplishments by the nations researchers. A 2002
RAND report prepared for the White House Office of Science and Technology
Policy concluded that the joint efforts provided great benefits to the United
States. U.S. scientists cite many cases in which Russian colleagues have
shared valuable knowledge: Treating radioactive coolants; Using soil and
climate data to understand climate change; Developing new treatments for
bone cancer. These past examples show the potential of continuing
cooperation. We have broad areas of common interest: Fundamental research
in nuclear physics; fusion energy research; counter-terrorism;
nanotechnology; the control of infectious disease; arctic science; and
development of clean energy sources. The Russia-U.S. relationship has
tended to be bilateral, but as the world grows more interconnected, this will
have to evolve. Nations on every continent are investing in science and
research capacity: South Korea and China have been transformed, seemingly
overnight, by investing in innovation. Cuba has become a world leader in
biomedical research. Rwanda is wiring itself for the Internet, and has begun
to distribute thousands of computers to its young students. Argentina, as it
develops its capacity in biotechnology and nanotechnology, is building
cooperative science relationships not just in Latin America, but with Europe,
Africa and the Arab world. However different these nations are, each
recognizes that science and technology will be the currency of the future;
investments today will pay off in economic growth and societal development
tomorrow. It is in this context that international science cooperation provides
the opportunity to build bridges between countries, both through
governments and through civil society relationships. To be most effective,
such an approach needs commitment from all interested partiesnot
just scientists and engineers, but policy-makers, the foreign policy
community, educators and the public. This emerging reality
inspired the American Association for the Advancement of Science to
establish a Center for Science Diplomacy earlier this year. In October,
the Center convened intensive meetings with top U.S. leaders from
foreign policy, business, education and science to discuss the best
ways to pursue international partnerships, even with nations such as
North Korea and Cuba, where governmental relationships have been
profoundly strained. Still, an overarching challenge confronts us now: At a
time of financial crisis, we must work together to address world problems in a
way that contributes to sustainable, long-term economic growth.
Governments play an important role in such partnerships, but they cannot
succeed without the commitment of individual researchers in Russia, the
United States, and many other countries. If scientists and engineers take
leadership, we can pursue new discoveries and solutions to shared problems
even as we build understanding and trust between our nations.
Soft Power/Heg
Lifting the embargo will increase our soft power in Latin
America.
Reinsch 2003
(William Reinsch is the President of the National Foreign Trade Council, USA*Engage Urges Congress to Prepare Now for Post-
Castro Cuba http://usaengage.org/News/News.asp?id=16&Newsid=770.)

This is a sterile vicious cycle that must be broken. We cannot assume that time is on our side in Cuba or that continuing to pursue our failed policy is without risks. The real
issue the U.S. should address is how to prepare for a post-Castro transition. We have to accept the fact that there are radically different courses that post-Castro Cuba can
take, not all of them to our liking: civil war, domination by drug lords, a military junta, or rule by another figure from this regime who might compensate for a charisma
deficit with even more repression. Increased immigration to the U.S. could be the result of any of these outcomes. Second, because of its symbolic importance to the U.S.,
The U.S. should be seen to

be working constructively toward a peaceful transition to free
market democracy in Cuba. By moving now to engage Cuba, the United States
will be able to deploy its most powerful arsenal before we are
overtaken by events. That arsenal is our "soft power," which goes beyond
how we deal with Cuba as it approaches this transition will affect our standing in the region and beyond.
American affluence to include American values, institutions and traditions such as the rule of law,
tolerance and freedom of expression and association. These factors have played a significant role in
having failed
to influence events in Cuba through a policy of isolation, it is time to
call Castro's bluff and start removing the crutches he uses to stay in power.
Increasing contact between Americans and Cubans is one way to
begin. To that end, we support enactment of S.950, which would repeal the prohibition on American
citizens' freedom to travel to Cuba. Ending the travel ban does not reward Castro; it
punishes him by building pressure that will lead to a free people and
democratic government in Cuba. These travel restrictions are
perhaps the most counterproductive of all the U.S. sanctions on
Cuba. They hurt families on both sides of the Florida Straits and restrict the freedom of American
transitions in places as diverse as South Korea, Eastern Europe and South Africa. Now,
citizens who are accustomed to traveling throughout the world without constraint.
Lifting the embargo is key to solve US soft power helps

with Korea, Eastern Europe and South Africa
Reinsch 2003
(William Reinsch is the President of the National Foreign Trade Council, USA*Engage Urges Congress to Prepare Now for Post-
Castro Cuba http://usaengage.org/News/News.asp?id=16&Newsid=770.)
the main achievement of our embargo has been to provide Fidel

Castro with a blanket excuse for his government's failures. Having chosen
not to engage Cuba, the U.S. has abdicated the possibility of influencing its
development. This has resulted in a perverse dynamic that perpetuates and deepens the stalemate: each time
there is a prospect of improved relations, the Cuban government takes an action
which they know will prevent any change in U.S. policy, and each
time we have reacted exactly as Castro wants by tightening the
embargo or stopping movement toward engagement. This is a sterile vicious cycle that
must be broken. We cannot assume that time is on our side in Cuba
or that continuing to pursue our failed policy is without risks. The real
In contrast,
issue the U.S. should address is how to prepare for a post-Castro transition. We have to accept the fact that there are
radically different courses that post-Castro Cuba can take, not all of them to our liking: civil war, domination by drug lords,
a military junta, or rule by another figure from this regime who might compensate for a charisma deficit with even more
repression. Increased immigration to the U.S. could be the result of any of these outcomes. Second,
because of
its symbolic importance to the U.S., how we deal with Cuba as it

approaches this transition will affect our standing in the region and
beyond.
The U.S. should be seen to be working constructively toward a peaceful transition to free market
By moving now to engage Cuba, the United States will be

able to deploy its most powerful arsenal before we are overtaken by events. That arsenal is our "soft
power," which goes beyond American affluence to include American values,
institutions and traditions such as the rule of law, tolerance and freedom of expression and association. These
democracy in Cuba.
factors have played a significant role in transitions in places as

diverse as South Korea, Eastern Europe and South Africa.
Only soft power solves hard isolation brings us back to

square one
Gerz-Escandon 8
(Jennifer Gerz-Escandon is a political journalist for the Christian Science monitor. End the US-Cuba embargo: It's a win-
win http://turing.library.northwestern.edu/login?url=http://search.proquest.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/docview/405566868?accountid=12861 . 10/09/08.)
phasing out the Cuban embargo won't render a quick solution to fractured US-Cuba
relations or end the evaporation of esteem the US is suffering throughout Latin America, it would
mark a significant achievement of hemispheric leadership on a divisive
issue. By ending the embargo, the US may learn that under the right circumstances, the soft
power of diplomacy proves more effective in reshaping America's perception in
Latin America than the hard power of economic isolation ever did.
While
Economic sanctions against Cuba are destroying US

relations with other countries, killing US soft power
Sweig 9
Cover: Memo to President Obama Julia Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director, Latin American Studies, Council on
Foreign Relations. She is the author of the forthcoming book, Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know.
http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,2194,00.html February 5th, 2009
U.S. policy toward Cuba is universally derided as ineffectual and an obstacle to

the emergence of a more open, pluralistic society on the island. An opening toward Cuba will be
quietly encouraged and loudly applauded by major U.S. allies in the region, such as Argentina, Brazil, Canada,
In the Western Hemisphere,
Chile, Colombia and Mexico,each of which possesses extensive ties to the island and is paying close attention to developments in
Cuba during this 50th anniversary year of the revolution. Havana's brashly ideological allies in the region Bolivia,
Nicaragua and, notably, Venezuelawill find a big argument in their brief against the United States (i.e. Goliath's
penchant for picking on David) substantially undercut. The dozen or so small island countries of the Caribbean, meanwhile, most of
which vote with Venezuela and Cuba at the Organization of American States and the United Nations will have cause for reconsidering
this practice. Beyond Latin America, Fidel Castro and Che Guevara remain cult heroes for many. Despite its human rights violations,
Cuba's leadership has earned grudging respect among multiple generations of intellectuals and political leaders for its social gains and
for its continued defiance of Washington. In Europe in particular, U.S. sanctions have earned the ire of many for
casting their punitive reach on potential business and investment with Cuba. After a five-year freeze, and
under the leadership of Spain's prime minister, Jos Luis Zapatero, the European Union has recently lifted economic sanctions and
commenced a broad ranging dialogue on civil and political as well as social and cultural rights. A fresh approach to Cuba will send a
signal that the era of American hubris in foreign affairs, at least in its own neck of the woods, may well be coming to an end. A
significant dimension of the collapse of America's standing globally during the Bush years was that the United States was willing to
use its power willy-nilly without a healthy degree of respect for the views of others, as the Constitution commends. For more than 15
years, the U.N. General Assembly has voted nearly unanimously in support of a Cuban resolution condemning the American embargo
against it. Owning up to the failures of this policy and sending a clear signal of a new approach will gain
ready plaudits from our allies, whose help we will need in confronting real, rather than manufactured and
domestically driven, national security challenges.
Trade credibility
Embargo fails two reasons 1) violates international laws
and 2) hurts trade credibility
Charbonneau 12
(Louis Charbonneau Bureau Chief, United Nations U.N. urges end to U.S. Cuba embargo for 21st year
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/us-cuba-embargo-un-idUSBRE8AC11820121113. 11/13/12.)
the "extraterritoriality" of the blockade measures - the fact that

Washington pressures other countries to adhere to the U.S. embargo - violates international
Rodriguez said
law.
He added that
the blockade is not in U.S. interests and harms its
credibility. "It leads the U.S. to adopt costly double standards," he said,
adding that the embargo has failed to achieve its objectives of
pressuring the government to introduce economic and political freedoms
and comply with international human rights standards. "There is no legitimate or moral
reason to maintain this embargo that is anchored in the Cold War," he said.
Sanctions kill US credibility Guantanamo and human

rights
Clark 4-14
(Meredith Clark is a political journalist for MSNBC specifically in regards to Latin America. Has the US embargo against Cuba failed?
http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/04/14/has-the-us-embargo-against-cuba-failed/. 04/14/13.)
Its only about 100 miles from the U.S., but if youre not Jay-Z and Beyonce, youre probably not going to
Cuba soon. The Communist regime remains in place after 50 years

under the choke-hold of economic sanctions, and travel restrictions, and the
embargo costs the U.S. $1.2 billion every yearbut nearly half of Americans
visit
support leaving it in place. America does business with other nations with long track records of human
rights violations and corruption; what about Cuba makes it so controversial, and will the sanctions ever
end? On Sundays Melissa Harris-Perry, the panel took a long look at the forces that keep the embargo in
how Cubans themselves have adapted to life under these

restrictions, and how the prison at Guantanamo Bay damages
American credibility
place,
during arguments about Cubas political prisoners. While the embargo may be a vestige of the Cold War, as professor Lisandro Perez said, nearly half of American still support it. Host Melissa Harris-
Perry was joined by Perez, Michigan State professor Lisa Cook, super-PAC director Mauricio Claver-Carone, scholar Soffiyah Elijah of the Correctional Association of New York, and City University of New York professor Sujatha Fernandes for an occasionally contentious debate that ranged
from homegrown Cuban hip-hop to the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay.
Cubas spot on the terror sponsors kills US credibility with

other nations
Williams 5-03
(Carol J. Williams is a political journalsit for the Los Angeles Times. Political calculus keeps Cuba on U.S. list of terror sponsors
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/03/world/la-fg-wn-cuba-us-terror-list-20130502. 05/03/13.)
it takes away
from the State Departments credibility when they include countries
on the list that arent even close to threatening Americans, Aramesh
said. Political considerations also factor into excluding countries from
the state sponsor list, he said, pointing to Pakistan as a prime example. Although Islamabad
As much as Id like to see the Castro regime gone and an open and free Cuba,
very clearly supports terrorist and insurgent organizations, he said, the U.S. government has long
The decision to retain

Cuba on the list surprised some observers of the long-contentious relationship
between Havana and Washington. Since Fidel Castro retired five years ago and
handed the reins of power to his younger brother, Raul, modest economic reforms have
been tackled and the government has revoked the practice of
refused to provoke its ally in the region with the official censure.
requiring Cubans to get exit visas before they could leave their
country for foreign travel.
Agent research
Obama can solve

Obama can take numerous steps to weaken the embargo
and increase economic engagement.
Americas Society and Council of the America Cuba
Working Group 2-20 (a group of corporate leaders focused on
investment in Cuba and research on the affect of the U.S. embargo on U.S.
businesses, Seven Steps the U.S. President Can Take to Promote Change in
Cuba by Adapting the Embargo, February 20 2013, http://www.ascoa.org/articles/seven-steps-us-president-can-take-promote-change-cubaadapting-embargo)//
A careful reading of U.S. policy goals toward Cuba and the set of
regulations and laws governing the U.S. embargo on Cuba reveal a
series of changes that are essential to ensuring the U.S.
administrations goal of encouraging independent economic and
political activity in Cuba. More important, they are also legally possible
and within the Presidents authority under existing regulations. To that
end, we propose the following steps that President Obama can take to
encourage private organizations and individuals to directly and
indirectly serve as catalysts for meaningful economic change in
Cuba. Grant exceptions for commerceincluding sales and importsfor
businesses and individuals engaged in certifiably independent (i.e., nonstate) economic activity. Allow for the export and sale of goods and
services to businesses and individuals engaged in certifiably
independent (i.e., non-state) economic activity. Allow licensed U.S.
travelers to Cuba to have access to U.S.-issued pre-paid cards and other
financial servicesincluding travelers insurance. Expand general
licensed travel to include U.S. executives and their duly appointed
agents to Cuba in financial services, travel and hospitality-related industries,
such as banking, insurance, credit cards, and consumer products related to
travel. Expand general licensed travel to include: law, real estate
and land titling, financial services and credit, and any area defined
as supporting independent economic activity. Allow for the sale of
telecommunications hardwareincluding cell towers, satellite dishes, and
handsetsin Cuba. Allow for the possibility for Cuba to request
technical assistance from International Financial Institutions (IFIs) in
the area of economic and institutional reform.
Obama should, through executive authority, open

dialogue with Cuba leading to an expansion of trade with
Cuba
Piccone 3-18 (Ted, senior fellow and deputy director of Foreign Policy at
the Brookings institute, March 18 2013, Time to bet on Cuba, Brookings
Institute, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/18-cubapiccone)//AMG
Much more, however, could be done. In his second term, Obama has a
wealth of policy options available to him through executive authority
that would reframe U.S. support for the Cuban people and advance
U.S. national interests. In his second term, the president can (and
should): Appoint a special envoy to open a discrete dialogue with
Havana without preconditions to discuss such issues as migration,
travel, counterterrorism and counternarcotics, energy and the
environment, and trade and investment. Such talks could result in
provisions that strengthen border security, protect Florida from oil spills,
break down the walls of communication that prevent our diplomats from
traveling outside Havana and help U.S. businesses export more goods,
and thereby create jobs. Authorize financial and technical assistance
to support burgeoning small businesses and permit trade in goods
and services with certified independent entrepreneurs. Expand the
list of exports licensed for sale to Cuba, including school and art
supplies, water and food preparation systems and
telecommunications equipment. Grant general licenses for journalists,
researchers, humanitarian organizations and others to facilitate people-topeople exchanges. Remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism,
where it does not belong, allowing a greater share of U.S.-sourced
components and services in products that enter Cuban commerce.
Change can happen without congress

Cave 12 (Damien, foreign correspondent- New York Times, November 19
2012, Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo, New

York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-incuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//AMG
In Washington, Mr. Gross is seen as the main impediment to an easing of the
embargo, but there are also limits to what the president could do without
Congressional action. The 1992 Cuban Democracy Act conditioned the
waiving of sanctions on the introduction of democratic changes inside Cuba.
The 1996 Helms-Burton Act also requires that the embargo remain until Cuba
has a transitional or democratically elected government. Obama
administration officials say they have not given up, and could move if
the president decides to act on his own. Officials say that under the
Treasury Departments licensing and regulation-writing authority,
there is room for significant modification. Following the legal logic of Mr.
Obamas changes in 2009, further expansions in travel are possible
along with new allowances for investment or imports and exports,
especially if narrowly applied to Cuban businesses.
Obama has the authority to expand and facilitate trade

with Cuba.
Colvin 09- (Jake, vice president of the National Foreign Trade Council,
U.S.-Cuba: The Case for Business, 9 Ways for us to Talk to Cuba and for
Cuba to Talk to Us, the Center for Democracy in the Americas, 2009,
http://www.scribd.com/doc/10323598/9-Ways-for-US-to-Talk-to-Cuba-and-forCuba-to-Talk-to-US#download)//
Expanding and facilitating trade would benefit the United States

economically, particularly in sectors like agricultural machinery, construction equipment and chemicals where Cuban import demand is high.
American technology could also ensure that Cubas efforts to develop
offshore oil patches in the Gulf of Mexico are done in an
environmentally-sustainable way. With human rights groups looking over
their shoulders, U.S. businesses in Cuba would guarantee proper wage,
labor and environmental standards. Trade also provides addi-tional
opportunities to engage the Cuban government and Cuban people on
economic development and reform, resulting in deeper levels of contacts
and, potentially, to a political rapprochement. It is important to note that
President Obama has the authority to alter these trade rules via the
licensing authority contained in the Cuban Assets Control
Regulations, which state that the President may authorize transactions with
Cuba by means of regulations, rulings, instructions, licenses, or otherwise.
Liberalizing trade and related transactions whether to allow
imports of some Cuban products like agricultural goods or more
exports of American would not require an Act of Congress.
Obama should initiate unconditioned bilateral talks with

Cuba to solve key blockades to relations.
the Brookings institute, January 17 2013, Opening to Havana, Brookings
Institute, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-tohavana)//AMG
I recommend that your administration, led by a special envoy
appointed by you and reporting to the secretary of state and the
national security advisor, open a discreet dialogue with Havana on a
wide range of issues, without preconditions. The aim of the direct
bilateral talks would be to resolve outstanding issues around
migration, travel, counterterrorism and counternarcotics, the
environment, and trade and investment that are important to
protecting U.S. national interests. Outcomes of these talks could
include provisions that normalize migration flows, strengthen border
security, break down the walls of communication that hinder U.S.
ability to understand how Cuba is changing, and help U.S.
businesses create new jobs. In the context of such talks your special
envoy would be authorized to signal your administrations
willingness to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of
terrorism, pointing to its assistance to the Colombian peace talks as fresh
evidence for the decision. This would remove a major irritant in U.S.Cuba relations, allow a greater share of U.S.-sourced components
and services in products that enter Cuban commerce, and free up
resources to tackle serious threats to the homeland from other sources
like Iran. We should also consider authorizing payments for exports to
Cuba through financing issued by U.S. banks and granting a general
license to allow vessels that have entered Cuban ports to enter U.S.
ports without having to wait six months. You can also facilitate
technical assistance on market-oriented reforms from international
financial institutions by signaling your intent to drop outright

opposition to such moves. Under this chapeau of direct talks, your
administration can seek a negotiated solution to the thorny issue of
U.S. and Cuban citizens serving long prison sentences, thereby
catalyzing progress toward removing a major obstacle to improving
bilateral relations.
Obama should take several unilateral steps to increase

economic engagement with the Cuban population.
You should, in parallel, also take unilateral steps to expand direct
contacts with the Cuban people by: authorizing financial and
technical assistance to the burgeoning class of small businesses and
cooperatives and permitting Americans to donate and trade in goods
and services with those that are certified as independent
entrepreneurs, artists, farmers, professionals and craftspeople; adding
new categories for general licensed travel to Cuba for Americans
engaged in services to the independent economic sector, e.g., law,
real estate, insurance, accounting, financial services; granting general
licenses for other travelers currently authorized only under specific
licenses, such as freelance journalists, professional researchers, athletes,
and representatives of humanitarian organizations and private foundations;
increasing or eliminating the cap on cash and gifts that non- Cuban
Americans can send to individuals, independent businesses and
families in Cuba; eliminating the daily expenditure cap for U.S.
citizens visiting Cuba and removing the prohibition on the use of
U.S. credit and bank cards in Cuba; authorizing the
reestablishment of ferry services to Cuba; expanding the list of
exports licensed for sale to Cuba, including items like school and art
supplies, athletic equipment, water and food preparation systems, retail
business machines, and telecommunications equipment (currently allowed
only as donations).
Obama can and should make transfigurative and

influential changes in the US policy towards Cuba.
Heuvel 7-2 (Katrina vanden- editor and publisher of The Nation,
commentator on American and International politics on ABC, MSNBC, CNN,

and PBS ,the U.S. should end the Cuban embargo, Washington Post, July 2 nd
2013, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-0702/opinions/40316090_1_embargo-limited-private-enterprise-odebrecht)//
It is long past time for the United States to end the embargo and
influence Cuba, rather than threaten it. Ironically, as a result of a new
Cuban migration law lifting more than 50 years of restrictions on the ability of
its citizens to travel freely abroad, taking effect this year, Cubans are now
freer to travel to the United States than Americans are to Cuba. The
president cant end the travel ban without Congressional approval,
but as Peter Kornbluhexplained in a recent piece in The Nation, he can take
several steps that would transform our policy. Obama should start
by removing Cuba from the State Departments list of nations that
support terrorism, terminating the economic and commercial
sanctions that come with that designation. The Treasury could stop
fining international banks for doing business with Cuba, a practice
that impedes the countrys slow opening to private enterprise. At the
same time, the president could expand licensing for travel to Cuba,
making it easier for entrepreneurs, scientists, doctors and others to
travel and explore commercial possibilities. The Cold War Cuban
Democracy and Contingency Planning Program, designed for
regime change, should be reconfigured to a people-to-people
exchange program that would actually have some influence.
Obama should expand trade exceptions and travel

licenses to foster free-market growth in Cuba.
Goad 2-20- (Ben- staff reporter at The Press-Enterprise, Report: Obama
should loosen Cuban embargo by executive fiat, The Hill, February 2 2013,
http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/284033-obama-urged-toloosen-cuba-embargo-restrictions-via-executive-fiat-)//
President Obama should unilaterally act to promote free-market
growth in communist Cuba by easing a series of financial and travel
restrictions, a pair of international policy groups contends in a new report.
Already, steps taken by the Obama administration and the Cuban
government have helped to spawn a budding independent private
sector, the Americas Society and Council of the Americas determined
following three years of talks and research. But progress has stalled, the
business-backed undertaking concluded. Unfortunately, the changes on
both sides have not gone far enough, the groups found. The two
countries remain in diplomatic deadlockcreating an opportunity for private
groups to provide channels to share information and build contacts. The
report, issued Wednesday, lays out a series of steps that Obama can take
without backing from Congress. The president could create exceptions
to trade prohibitions that would allow American businesses and
vendors to buy art, merchandise and other products from verifiably
independent Cuban sellers, according to the report. Existing
regulations could be amended to broaden the range of products that
can be exported to the nation, the groups found. The report also calls
for expanded licensed travel for U.S. executives, legal experts and
organizations that could help to create an infrastructure to support
increased free-market trade. Other recommendations call for sales
of telecommunications hardware to Cuba and an allowance for the
nation to request technical help from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) or the International Development (IDB) in the area of market reforms.
Obama can make meaningful change- has more leverage

now
Goodman 2-20- (Joshua- assistant professor of Public Policy at Harvard
with focus on public economics , Obama Can Bend Cuba Embargo to Help
Open Economy, Group Says, Bloomberg, February 20 th 2013,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-20/obama-should-bend-cubaembargo-to-buoy-free-markets-reports-say.html)//
President Barack Obama should break free of the embargo on Cuba
and assert his authority to promote a free-market overhaul taking
place on the communist island. The recommendation is contained in
concurrent reports to be published today by the Cuba Study Group
and the Council of the Americas, two groups seeking to end a decadesold deadlock on U.S. policy toward Cuba. Among steps Obama can take
without violating sanctions passed by Congress are opening U.S.
markets, as well as authorizing the sale of American goods and
services, to the estimated 400,000 private entrepreneurs that have
arisen since Cuban President Raul Castro started cutting state payrolls in
2011. The reports also recommend allowing U.S. credit card and
insurance companies to provide basic financial services to licensed
U.S. travelers to Cuba. Weve been sitting on the sidelines with
our hands tied by an antiquated law thats being too strictly
interpreted, said Chris Sabatini, an author of the report and senior
policy director for the Council of the Americas, a business-backed group
based in New York. Theres more Obama can do to be a catalyst for
meaningful economic change. Obama in 2009 allowed companies for
the first time to provide communications services to the Caribbean island of
11 million and lifted a travel ban for Cuban-Americans. The loosening of
restrictions, while heralded by the White House as a way to undermine the
Castro governments control of information, was seen as insufficient by
potential investors including Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc.
Economic Overhaul Now, in a second term, and with private business
expanding in Cuba, Obama has a freer hand to do more, said Sabatini.
An exception to the embargo allowing U.S. businesses and
consumers to trade with non-state enterprises in Cuba would be
small in scale though help empower a growing, viable constituency
for change on the island, he said.
Obama Cant Solve

Even if Obama takes action, laws prevent change unless
congress repeals laws.
Cardenas 12- (Jose R.- previously advised on inter-American relations to
the U.S. Dept. of State, the National Security Council, previously Acting
Assistant Administrator for Latin America and the Carribean at the U.S.
Agency for International Development, Cuba Policy in a Second Obama
Term, November 13 2012, Foreign
Policy,http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/13/cuba_policy_in_a_sec
ond_obama_term)//
Moreover, even in the space the administration thinks it may have
some flexibility on the issue -- expanded travel, supporting microenterprises, and increased agricultural sales -- there are complications.
The 1996 Cuban Liberty & Democratic Solidarity Act (a.k.a., HelmsBurton) is still on the books and it states that anyone improperly
using property illegally confiscated from U.S. citizens (including
naturalized citizens of Cuban descent) can be sued in a U.S. court of law.
While it is true that the "right of action" has been suspended by
successive administrations, the law still holds that anyone using or
accessing those properties is liable. Will a U.S. administration
sanction activity that might violate the letter and spirit of U.S. law?
For example, what happens when a U.S. tour group traveling under a license
as part of the administration's expanded travel program entertains itself at a
venue illegally confiscated from its original owners? Or, what happens when a
U.S. agricultural company sells its products to Cuba and has to utilize a port,
a dock, or otherwise come into some contact with what U.S. law considers
stolen property? It matters little what anyone thinks about the matter;
the law is the law. I'm not a lawyer, but one has to wonder how long
U.S. law can recognize a wrong was committed against U.S. citizens
without giving them the opportunity to redress it. No doubt some
creative attorneys are thinking about the same thing.
Only Congress can lift or ease the embargo.

Bussey 08 (Jane- staff reporter for the Miami Herald specializing in Latin
America reporting, Cuba embargo intact, yet could be tweaked, the Miami
Herald, February 21 2008,
http://www.miamiherald.com/multimedia/news/castro/embargo.html)//
'The legislation is in place and will be in place with this
administration,'' said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. ``This administration
will not change until Cuba changes.'' The law, passed in an election
year and in the aftermath of Cuba's 1996 shoot-down of two Brothers to the
Rescue planes that ended in four deaths, formalized U.S. sanctions and
detailed strict benchmarks Cuba must meet before the sanctions,
including the trade embargo, can be relaxed or lifted. A key rationale
for the law was also to make Cuba settle U.S. claims for property confiscated
decades ago. The conditions for ending the embargo range from the
big -- proscribing the presence of either Fidel or Ral Castro in Cuban
government -- to demanding that Havana support small business in
exchange for easing restrictions on remittances. The U.S. president
can only lift the embargo by certifying to Congress that Cuba is in a
transition to democracy -- which entails another long list of rules.
Helms-Burton essentially shifted control of the embargo from the
president to Congress.
A tangle of laws requires Congress to repeal the embargoexecutive action is just a band-aid fix.
Webber 09- (Alan M.- nationally-recognized editor, author, and columnist
with a focus on global news , Introduction: The Case for Changing U.S.
Policy , 9 Ways for us to Talk to Cuba and for Cuba to Talk to Us, the Center
for Democracy in the Americas, 2009,
Change within Cuba will certainly come within the existing sys-tem.
16 The United States therefore needs to adopt a strategy and policies that amplify and support the change within Cuba toward greater
freedom and respect for human rights, and that serve and support larger
American economic and political interests. To do that thoroughly,
coherently, and correctly will require theU.S. to untangle an
incoherent thicket of legal and regulatory sanc-tions that do not fit
the current context and do not serve U.S. interests. Because much of
the current intellectual and political mess has be enanacted by the
Congress into law, it will take corrective action by the Congress to
fix it, action that should start by repealing the ban on legal travel to Cuba by
all Americans.
Repealing travel ban will take congress

Second, loosen travel restrictions. Immediate repeal of the restric-tions on
travel and people-to-people exchanges would be a welcomestep. Complete
repeal of travel restrictions would allow U.S. citizens including American
business executives and entrepreneurs toget to know the Cuban people
and the Cuban market. (Repeal wouldalso take a burden off of the Treasury
and Homeland Security Departments, which could redirect the resources that
currently go toadminister and enforce prohibitions on travel by American
citizens, toinvestigating more urgent threats like al-Qaeda and Iran.) Since
repealof the travel ban would likely require an Act of Congress, thePresident
should enlist the help of key members, including chairs of the relevant
committees and House and Senate leadership. The WhiteHouse should work
with American business organizations and moderate Cuban-American

groups to make a strong case for repeal.Dialogue with Congress and action
on the travel ban could pave the way for a broader discussion about the
bilateral relationship.
Expanding US investment in Cuba will take Congress

It is important to note that President Obama has the authority to alter these
trade rules via the licensing authority contained in the Cuban Assets Control
Regulations, which state that the President may authorize transactions with
Cuba by means of regulations, rulings, instructions, licenses, or otherwise.
Liberalizing trade and related transactions whether to allow imports
of some Cuban products like agricultural goods or more exports of American
would not require an Act of Congress. Expanding American
investment in Cuba is another story. Outstanding settlement claims
going back to Cubas Revolution are roadblocks to U.S. companies
which are unlikely to invest in the face of legal uncertainty. Cuban
foreign investment laws would also deter American investment even
if claims were to be settled. Cubas current approach to joint
ventures and other foreign participation agree-ments would likely
discourage American investors, who value transparency, rule of law
and more favorable investment terms than the Cuban government is likely to
offer. That said, a member of the younger generation, a Cuban official with
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told me, If there was normalization, it would
have a serious impact on how Cuba manages its economy. There are a
number of factors that could change.
Obama can only take unilateral steps on loosening the

embargo as mandated by congress.
The steps recommended above would give your administration the
tools to have a constructive dialogue with the Cuban government
based on a set of measures that 1) would engage Cuban leaders in
high-level, face-to-face negotiations on matters that directly serve U.S.
interests in a secure, stable, prosperous and free Cuba; and 2) allow you to
assert executive authority to take unilateral steps that would
increase U.S. support to the Cuban people, as mandated by
Congress. To take this step, you will have to contend with negative
reactions from a vocal, well-organized minority of members of
Congress who increasingly are out of step with their constituents on this
issue. Your initiative should be presented as a set of concrete measures to
assist the Cuban people, which is well within current congressional mandates,
and as a way to break the stalemate in resolving the case of U.S. citizen Alan
Gross (his wife is calling for direct negotiations). Those are winnable
arguments. But you will need to be prepared for some unhelpful criticism
along the way.
Congress- Torricelli Act

Due to delicate relations and unclear laws, congress
should deal with the Torricelli Act first, not the HelmsBurton Act.
Bussey 08 (Jane- staff reporter for the Miami Herald specializing in Latin
America reporting, Cuba embargo intact, yet could be tweaked, the Miami
Herald, February 21 2008,
http://www.miamiherald.com/multimedia/news/castro/embargo.html)//
''If you are going to see a legislative attack on the Torricelli [Act] and
Helms-Burton, I don't think it's going to be a frontal assault,'' Freyre
said. ``It's going to be guerrilla warfare.'' Ways of easing the embargo
could include allowing U.S. financing of agriculture sales to Cuba (Cuba has to
pay upfront for shipments), more family visits to the island and even lifting a
ban on U.S. tourists traveling to Cuba. A new administration in the White
House could return to ''constructive engagement,'' with overtures to Havana
if Cuba's government takes steps such as releasing dissidents or legalizing
some opposition movements, Freyre said. But Freyre said that any
cooperation would require careful orchestration to build confidence
between the two adversaries. Some say that a first step for lessening
the sanctions might be to avoid dealing with the Helms-Burton law
completely. ''It is easier to do away with the Torricelli Act than
Helms-Burton,'' said Antonio R. Zamora, of counsel in the Miami office of
Squire, Sanders & Dempsey. ''Torricelli is much more specific,'' said
Zamora, adding that lifting the sanctions on ships could allow cruise
ships to dock in Cuba. ``With the new Congress, I think there are going to
be some changes.'' Freyre also said that times have changed for the two
countries. ''For the first time in 50 years, Castro is not in power in Cuba and
this is an election year in the United States,'' Freyre said. ``The planets have
aligned.''
K Work
K cards
Post-Development
Development K
Guevara 61 (Che, Author, Diplomat, Military theorist, central figure in the
Cuban revolution, Cuba: Historical exception or vanguard in the anticolonial
struggle?", http://www.marxists.org/archive/guevara/1961/04/09.htm, 4/9/61)
In most countries the large landholders realized they couldn't survive alone
and promptly entered into alliances with the monopolies the strongest and
most ruthless oppressors of the Latin American peoples. U.S. capital arrived
on the scene to exploit the virgin lands and later carried off, unnoticed, all the
funds so generously given, plus several times the amount originally
invested in the beneficiary country. The Americas were a field of
interimperialist struggle. The wars between Costa Rica and Nicaragua, the
separation of Panama from Colombia, the infamy committed against Ecuador
in its dispute with Peru, the fight between Paraguay and Bolivia, are nothing
but expressions of this gigantic battle between the world's great monopolistic
powers, a battle decided almost completely in favor of the U.S. monopolies
following World War II. From that point on the empire dedicated itself to
strengthening its grip on its colonial possessions and perfecting the whole
structure to prevent the intrusion of old or new competitors from other
imperialist countries. This resulted in a monstrously distorted economy which
has been described by the shamefaced economists of the imperialist regime
with an innocuous vocabulary revealing the deep compassion they feel for us
inferior beings. They call our miserably exploited Indians, persecuted and
reduced to utter wretchedness, little Indians and they call blacks and
mulattos, disinherited and discriminated against, colored all this as a
means of dividing the working masses in their struggle for a better economic
future. For all of us, the peoples of the Americas, they have a polite and
refined term: underdeveloped. What is underdevelopment? A dwarf with
an enormous head and a swollen chest is underdeveloped inasmuch as his
weak legs or short arms do not match the rest of his anatomy. He is the
product of an abnormal formation distorting his development. In reality that is
what we are we, politely referred to as underdeveloped, in truth are
colonial, semicolonial or dependent countries. We are countries whose
economies have been distorted by imperialism , which has abnormally
developed those branches of industry or agriculture needed to complement
its complex economy. Underdevelopment, or distorted development, brings
a dangerous specialization in raw materials, inherent in which is the threat of
hunger for all our peoples. We, the underdeveloped, are also those with the
single crop, the single product, the single market. A single product whose
uncertain sale depends on a single market imposing and fixing conditions.
That is the great formula for imperialist economic domination.
Development K
Escobar 92 (Arturo, Anthropologist, Masters from Cornell, PhD from UC
Berkeley, Social Text, No. 31/32, Third World and Post-Colonial Issues
(1992), pg. 20-56)
Development, according to this critique, has to be seen as an invention and

strategy produced by the "First World" about the "underdevelopment" of the
"Third World," and not only as an instrument of economic control over the
physical and social reality of much of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Development has been the primary mechanism through which these parts of
the world have been produced and have produced themselves, thus
marginalizing or precluding other ways of seeing and doing. The problem is
complicated by the fact that the post-World War II discourse of development
is firmly entrenched in Western modernity and economy. 3. To think about
"alternatives to development" thus requires a the-oretico-practical
transformation of the notions of development, modernity and the economy.
This transformation can be best achieved by building upon the practices of
social movements, especially those in the Third World that have emerged in
response to post-World War II hegemonic social orders. These movements are
essential for the creation of alterna-tive visions of democracy, economy and
society. Modernity has also been understood as the attempt to provide a
foun-dation for the social, one that is grounded in reason and a project of
global emancipation. One cannot look at the bright sideof modernity,
however, without looking at its dark side of domination. "The 'Enlightment',
which discovered the liberties, also invented the disciplines" (Foucault 1979:
222). Consequently, modernity's inventions must be seen for what they are:
Janus-faced relations between forms of knowledge made possible by reason
and the systems of power created in the process of building a rational
society, including the processes of "emancipation" (Nandy 1989).3 From this
critical perspective, development can be described as an apparatus
(dispositif) that links forms ofknowledge about the Third World with the
deployment of forms of power and intervention, resulting in the mapping and
production of Third World societies. In other words, development is what
constructs the contemporary Third World, silently, without our noticing it. By
means of this discourse, individuals, govern-ments and communities are seen
as "underdeveloped" (or placed under conditions in which they tend to see
themselves as such), and are treated accordingly. "It took twenty years for
two billion people to define them-selves as underdeveloped" - Ivan Illich is
quoted as saying (Trinh 1982, 1985). Problematic as this statement might be
(who are the "they" who define themselves as such?), it captures the tenor of
this hegemonic discourse. Needless to say, the peoples of Asia, Africa and
Latin America did not always see themselves in terms of "development." The
history of devel-opment is relatively recent; it goes back only as far as the
early post- World War II period, when the apparatuses of knowledge
production and intervention (the World Bank, the United Nations, bilateral
development agencies, planning offices in the Third World, etc.) were
established and when a whole new political economy of truth - different from
that of the colonial or pre-war period - was set into place. The history and
political economy of this process are too complex to recount here; this has
been done elsewhere (Sachs, ed. 1992; Escobar 1984, 1988). To examine
devel-opment as discourse requires understanding why so many countries
started to see themselves as underdeveloped, that is, how "to develop"
became for them a fundamental problem, and how, finally, it was made real
through the deployment of myriad strategies and programs. Develop-ment as
discourse sharesstructural features with other colonizing dis-courses, such as
Orientalism, which Said argues can be discussed and analyzed as the

corporate institution for dealing with the Orient- dealing with itby making
statements about it, by teaching it, settling it, ruling over it; in short,
Orientalism as a Western style for dominating, restructuring and having
authority over the Orient ... My contention is that without examining
orientalism as a discourse we cannot possibly understand the enormously
systematic discipline by which European culture was able to manage - and
even produce - the Orient politically, sociologically, ideologically, scientifically, and imaginatively during the post-Enlightment period. [1979:3].
Likewise, development has functioned as an all-powerful mechanism for the
production and management of the Third World in the post-World War II
period. A complete reorganization of knowledge production sys-tems, for
example, took place in Latin America after 1950 (Fuenzalida 1983, 1987;
Escobar 1989). The previous model, organized in the nine-teenth century
around the European classical professions and centered on education and
training, was replaced by a new one patterned after North American
institutions and styles. This transformation took place to suit the demands of
the new development order, which relied heavily on research and knowledge
that could provide a reliable picture of a country's social and economic
problems. Everything that was deemed important became the object of
knowledge; this was achieved through the proliferation of development
disciplines and sub-disciplines (develop-ment economics, agricultural
sciences, health, nutrition and educational sciences, demography, city and
regional planning, etc). Once Third World countries became the target of new
mechanisms of power - embodied in endless programs and "strategies" - their
economies, societies and cul-tures were offered up as new objects of
knowledge that, in turn, created new possibilites of power. It was the creation
of a vast institutional network (from international organizations and
universities to local development agencies) that insured the efficient
functioning of this apparatus. Once consolidated, this system determined
what could be said, thought, imagined; in short, it defined a perceptual
domain, the space of development. Industrialization, family, planning, the
"Green Revolution," macroeconomic policy, "integrated rural development"
and the like, all exist within the same space, all repeat the same basic truth,
namely, that development is about paving the way for the achievement of
those conditions that characterize rich societie s: industrialization, agricultural
modernization, and urbanization. Until re-cently, it seemed impossible to get
away from this imaginary of develop-ment. Everywhere one looked, what one
found was the busy, repetitive reality of development: governments
designing ambitious development plans, institutions carrying out
development programs in cities and coun-tryside alike, experts studying
development problems and producing the-ories ad nauseam, foreign experts
all over the place, multinational corporations brought into the country in the
name of development. In sum, development colonized reality, became reality,
and no matter how sharp an instrument we used to pierce it, to break
through it, we seemed to be left embarrassingly empty handed. This critique
of development as discourse has begun to coalesce in recent years (Mueller
1987, 1991; Ferguson 1990; Apffel Marglin and Marglin, eds. 1991; Sachs, ed.
1992). As in V.Y. Mudimbe's study of Africanism (1988), the aim of these
critiques is to examine the founda-tions of an order of knowledge about the
Third World, the ways in which the Third World is constituted in and through
representation. Third World reality is inscribed with precision and persistence
by the discourses and practices of economists, planners, nutritionists,
demographers, and the like, making it difficult for people to define their own
interests in their own terms - in many cases actually disabling them to do so
(Illich 1977). Development proceeded by creating abnormalities ("the poor,"
"the mal-nourished," "the illiterate," "pregnant women," "the landless") which
it would then treat or reform. Seeking to eradicate all problems, it actually
ended up multiplying them to infinity. Embodied in a multiplicity of practices,
institutions and structures, it has had a profound effect on the Third World:
social relations, ways of thinking, visions of the future are all indelibly marked
and shaped by this ubiquitous operator.
K is a prerequisite to the case

Escobar 92 (Arturo, Anthropologist, Masters from Cornell, PhD from UC
Berkeley, Social Text, No. 31/32, Third World and Post-Colonial Issues
(1992), pp. 47)
The possibility for redefining development, this paper argues, rests largely
with the action of social movements. Development is understood here as a
particular set of discursive power relations that construct a representation of
the Third World, whose critical analysis lays bare the processes by which
Latin America and the rest of the Third World have been produced as
"underdeveloped." Such a critique also contributes to devising means of
liberating Third World societies from the imaginary of development and for
lessening the Third World's dependence on the episteme of modernity. While
this critical understanding of development is crucial for those working within
social movements, awareness of the actions of the latter is equally essential
for those seeking to transform development.
Economic engagement is colonialist

Guevara 64 (Che, On Development, Author, Diplomat, Military theorist,
central figure in the Cuban revolution

http://www.marxists.org/archive/guevara/1964/03/25.htm, 3/24/64)
Since the end of the last century this aggressive expansionist trend has been
manifested in countless attacks on various countries on the more
underdeveloped continents. Today, however, it mainly takes the form of
control exercised by the developed powers over the production of and trade
in raw materials in the dependent countries. In general it is shown by the
dependence of a given country on a single primary commodity, which sells
only in a specific market in quantities restricted to the needs of that market.
The inflow of capital from the developed countries is the prerequisite for the
establishment of economic dependence. This inflow takes various forms:
loans granted on onerous terms; investments that place a given country in
the power of the investors; almost total technological subordination of the
dependent country to the developed countr y; control of a country's foreign
trade by the big international monopolies; and in extreme cases, the use of
force as an economic weapon in support of the other forms of exploitation.
Cuban Embargo
Cuban embargo is economic imperialism + history
Lawson-Remer 99 (Terra, is Assistant Professor of International Affairs
and Economics at The New School, and Fellow for Civil Society, Markets &
Democracy at the Council on Foreign Relations. She previously served as
Senior Policy Advisor at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. She is also
currently co-director of the Economic & Social Rights Empowerment Initiative
and chair of the Universitys Advisory Committee on Investor Responsibility
(ACIR).
http://www.yaleherald.com/archive/xxvii/1999.01.22/opinion/p10remer.html,
1/22)
United States foreign policy is central to the life of every Cuban,
enforcing the dearth of essentials and luxuries, from medicine to cosmetics to
automobiles. With the exception of Cuba, the United States is the single
largest trading partner of every Latin American country. Clearly, hacking
these ties would create an economic hemorrhage in any Latin American
nation. The U.S. embargo against Cuba, only mentioned in this country
between glimpses of unbuttoned trousers and political cockfights, lacerates
the Cuban people every day. Although clothed in the rhetoric of freedom
and democracy, the trade embargo is fundamentally a tool of economic
imperialism. When President Bill Clinton, LAW '73, said that "the
overarching goal of American policy must be to promote a peaceful transition
to democracy on the island [of Cuba]," he wasn't telling the full truth. Clearly,
Cuban-style democracy wouldn't qualify as "free" by most definitions. Yet
other nations with far worse human-rights records, including Guatemala,
China, Chile, and Indonesia, have received U.S. economic and political
support despite their atrocities. Hiding behind the rhetoric of liberty in dealing
with Cuba is supremely hypocritical. The real motive behind U.S.-Cuban policy
is economic imperialism, not democracy. American involvement with Cuba
dates back to the Spanish-American War, when the United States forced Cuba
to add an amendment to its constitution allowing the U.S. to intervene in
Cuba's internal affairs. Political imperialism gradually gave way to economic
imperialism. By the eve of the Cuban revolution, foreign corporations, with
the complicity of Fulgencio Batista's repressive regime, owned the vast
majority of Cuban assets. Consequently, the U.S. lent covert military support
to dictator Batista from 1957 to 1959 by sending weapons and intelligence to
fight Castro's rebel army. Even after the revolutionaries came to power in
1959, the CIA continued to sponsor a counter-revolutionary army within
Cuba. It's no wonder that in 1960, when the revolutionaries nationalized
Cuba's extensive wealth, they failed to compensate U.S. companies, while
corporations from nations that hadn't fought against the rebels were
adequately paid. This seizure of property was the primary reason for the
Cuban embargo. As Michael Ranneberger, the State Department's
Coordinator for Cuban Affairs, said,"One of the major reasons for the
imposition of the embargo was the Cuban Government's failure to
compensate thousands of U.S. companies and individuals." In other words,
the embargo is the vestige of an imperialistic policy, dating from 1901, which
has been characterized by U.S.-backed dictators and the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
Now that the "democracy defense" of the Cuban embargo has been exposed
as a farce, what is left to defenders of the status quo policy? Cuba remains a
communist nation, defying free trade laws, the trend toward global
capitalism, and the U.S. corporate appetite for profit. One could say, in the
rhetoric of the Cold War, that the U.S. is simply standing strong against the
communist menace 90 miles from our shore. Yet it seems evident that the
small island off the shore of Florida poses no security threat to the United
States. More importantly, communism has been good to the Cuban people.
The infant mortality rate in Cuba is one of the lowest in the world (12 per
1,000 live births). Life expectancy in Cuba far exceeds that in the rest of Latin
America (73.5 years as opposed to, for example, 64.3 years in Ecuador). The
illiteracy rate has declined from 25 percent of the population before the
revolution (mid-'50s) to 4 percent in the mid-'90s. It's important to note that
all this was achieved without the support of the U.S., the World Bank, or the
International Monetary Fund. Perhaps Soviet support until 1989 compensated
for the lack of global financial involvementbut it's doubtful. More
importantly, Cuban farm workers now have access to potable water, decent
housing, education, and health care at a rate almost unparalleled in the rest
of Latin America. Before the revolution, Cuba had a higher GNP, but it was
concentrated in the hands of the very rich. Today the wealth of Cuba benefits
every Cuban. Cuba is not an island paradise. Although the Cuban people
have, on the whole, benefited from communism, the system is currently close
to collapse. This is due primarily to the loss of its largest trading partner, the
USSR, as well as to inherent economic inefficiencies. The lack of a free
democracy in Cuba also remains an important issueit's impossible to
support a system that denies full freedom to its citizenry. So what stance
should the U.S. take toward Cuba? If we are truly interested in freedom,
democracy, and prosperity, we must consider the best interests of the Cuban
people. In order to regain prosperity and establish democracy, Cuba must
make the transition from a state-planned economy under Castro to a market
economy under a democratic government. This cannot happen as long as
Castro and communism are synonymous with anti-imperialismand they will
remain synonymous as long as the embargo is in place. Cuba will need the
help of economists in order to find a non-capitalist alternative to communism.
While laissez-faire capitalism would wipe out all the gains achieved under
communism, a non-capitalist market economy could create prosperity
without poverty. It's time to eschew the hackneyed rhetoric extolling the
virtues of capitalism, admit that communism has been far more beneficial to
the majority of Cubans than rampant capitalism was before the revolution,
and lift the Cuban embargo.
Imperialism
Chomsky 9 (Noam, Institute Professor and Professor (Emeritus) in the
Department of Linguistics & Philosophy at MIT, Noam Chomsky on the Cuban

embargo and democracy promotion
http://www.thecommentfactory.com/noam-chomsky-on-the-cuban-embargoand-democracy-promotion-1963/, February 22)
Lugar carefully says stated purpose. He is an intelligent man, and surely
knows that the actual purpose was completely different. No one familiar with
US practices in the region or elsewhere can possibly believe that the goal of
intensive US terror operations against Cuba and harsh economic warfare was
intended to bring democracy to the Cuban people. That is just propaganda,
unusually vulgar in this case. The actual reasons for the terror and economic
warfare were explained clearly at the very outset: the goal was to cause
rising discomfort among hungry Cubans so that they would overthrow the
regime (Kennedy); to bring about hunger, desperation, and overthrow
of the government (Eisenhowers State Department). The threat of Cuba,
as Kennedys Latin American advisor Arthur Schlesinger advised the incoming
president, is that successful independent development there might stimulate
others who suffer from similar problems to follow the same course, so that
the system of US domination might unravel. The liberal Democratic
administrations were outraged over Cubas successful defiance of US
policies going back to the Monroe Doctrine, which was intended to ensure
obedience to the US will in the hemisphere. To a substantial extent, US
terror and economic warfare has achieved its actual goals, causing bitter
suffering among Cubans, impeding economic development, and
undermining moves towards more internal democracy. Exactly as intended.
Neocolonialism Impact
Neo colonialism leads to extinction
Nkrumah 65 (Kwame, leader and first President and Prime Minister of
Ghana and the Ivory Coast, founding member of the Organization for African
Unity and winner of the Lenin Peace Prize, Neo-Colonialism, the Last Stage of
imperialism, http://www.marxists.org/subject/africa/nkrumah/neocolonialism/introduction.htm)
A State in the grip of neo-colonialism is not master of its own destiny. It is this
factor which makes neo-colonialism such a serious threat to world peace. The
growth of nuclear weapons has made out of date the old-fashioned balance of
power which rested upon the ultimate sanction of a major war. Certainty of
mutual mass destruction effectively prevents either of the great power blocs
from threatening the other with the possibility of a world-wide war, and
military conflict has thus become confined to limited wars. For these neocolonialism is the breeding ground . Such wars can, of course, take place
in countries which are not neo-colonialist controlled. Indeed their object may
be to establish in a small but independent country a neo-colonialist regime.
The evil of neo-colonialism is that it prevents the formation of those large
units which would make impossible limited war. To give one example: if
Africa was united, no major power bloc would attempt to subdue it by limited
war because from the very nature of limited war, what can be achieved by it
is itself limited. It is, only where small States exist that it is possible, by
landing a few thousand marines or by financing a mercenary force, to secure
a decisive result. The restriction of military action of limited wars is,
however, no guarantee of world peace and is likely to be the factor which will
ultimately involve the great power blocs in a world war, however much both
are determined to avoid it. Limited war, once embarked upon, achieves a
momentum of its own. Of this, the war in South Vietnam is only one example.
It escalates despite the desire of the great power blocs to keep it limited.
While this particular war may be prevented from leading to a world conflict,
the multiplication of similar limited wars can only have one end-world war
and the terrible consequences of nuclear conflict. Neo-colonialism is also the
worst form of imperialism. For those who practise it, it means power
without responsibility and for those who suffer from it, it means
exploitation without redress. In the days of old-fashioned colonialism, the
imperial power had at least to explain and justify at home the actions it was
taking abroad. In the colony those who served the ruling imperial power could
at least look to its protection against any violent move by their opponents.
With neo-colonialism neither is the case.
Colonialism, disease
Mottas 11 (Nicolas, Graduate of Political Science, Diplomatic Studies,
Conflict Resolution, a political research student (PhD) and a freelance articlewriter, U.S. embargo on Cuba: A 50 years-old crime,
http://www.opednews.com/articles/U-S-embargo-on-Cuba-A-50-byNicolas-Mottas-110429-665.html, 4/30/11)
According to a 1997 report by the American Association for World Health "the
U.S. embargo of Cuba has dramatically harmed the health and nutrition
of large numbers of ordinary Cuban citizens". The same report assumes that "
the U.S. embargo has caused a significant rise in suffering-and even
deaths-in Cuba " while the 1992 Cuban Democracy Act (U.S. Congress) had
contributed significantly to the increase of the number of unmet medical
needs patients going without essential drugs. On that we should add the
restriction of access over medical equipment and water treatment chemicals .
Against these mounting obstacles, the Cuban government successfully
managed to maintain high levels of budgetary support to the health care
system, thus avoiding an uncpreceded humanitarian disaster for the island.
The current U.S. President moves one step forward and two steps back on the
issue. He decides to ease the travel restrictions for Cuban-Americans and, on
the same time, extends the blockade for one more year because it is "in the
national interests of the United States". However, it was Mr. Obama himself
who, in 2004, had called the embargo policy a "failure". " I think it's time for
us to end the embargo with Cuba" It's time for us to acknowledge that that
particular policy has failed" , he had stated during a speech at Southern
Illinois University. Quite a hypocrisy for such a popular President. The HelmsBurton Act of 1996 which strengthens the embargo refers to "a peaceful
transition to a representative democracy and market economy in Cuba" . It is
clear that the Cubans are being punished all these years for not submitting to
the actual existing capitalist system -- they "pay the price" for their
"audacity" to confront colonialism and capitalism during the Cold War period.
The symbolism is apparent: How can a communist state exists just 90 miles
south of Florida? Fifty years since it was enacted, the embargo against Cuba
consists a form of modern apartheid and colonization effort in the 21st
century. It is in the hands of the international community, along with the
support of the progressive American people, to put an end to this crime
against the Cuban nation.
Structural violence
Kovalik 6-27 (David, labor and human rights attorney, and teaches
International Human Rights at the University of Pittsburgh School of Law,

Trying to Destroy the Danger of a Good Example,
http://mltoday.com/subject-areas/books-arts-and-literature/trying-todestroy-the-danger-of-a-good-example-1697-2.html,
Lamrani concludes that the results of this relentless 50-year blockade have
cost Cuba more than $751 billion, and has "affected all sectors of Cuban
society and all categories of the population, especially the most
vulnerable: children, the elderly, and women. Over 70 percent of all Cubans
have lived in a climate of permanent economic hostility ." Indeed, the stated
purpose of the blockade all along has been to inflict suffering on the Cuban
people to achieve the U.S.'s political objective of regime the sine a qua non of
terrorism. Thus, Lamrani quotes Lester D. Mallory, U.S. Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs, who wrote on August 6,
1960:The majority of the Cuban people support Castro. There is no effective
political opposition. . . . The only foreseeable means of alienating internal
support is through disenchantment and disaffection and hardship. . . . every
possible means should be undertaken promptly to weaken the economic life
of Cuba . . . a line of action which . . . makes the greatest inroads in denying
money and supplies to Cuba, to decrease monetary and real wages, to bring
about hunger, desperation and overthrow of government. According to this

plan, which continues to this day, the blockade has caused immense suffering
amongst the Cuban civilian population. Nowhere is this more evident than in
the field of medicine where Cubans are denied critical U.S. pharmaceuticals
and other medical supplies a huge deprivation given that the U.S., according
to Lamrani, holds 80% of the patents in the medical sector. And so, Lamrani
sets forth a laundry list of examples in which Cubans have been deprived
critical medical aid due to the blockade: *Cuban children suffering from
cancer of the retina cannot receive effective treatment because the surgical
microscopes and other equipment needed for this treatment are sold
exclusively by the U.S. company, Iris Medical Instruments. *The National
Institute of Oncology and Radiobiology in Havana cannot use radioactive
isotope plaques for the treatment of retinal cancer as they are sold
exclusively by U.S. companies, thereby requiring doctors to remove the
affected eyes of children altogether rather than treat and preserve them.
*Nearly 1600 Cubans a year are denied effective diagnosis of cancerous
tumors because Cuba cannot obtain the necessary German-made optical
coherence tomography an item prohibited by the embargo because it
contains some American-made components. *Cubans are denied the drug
temozolomide (Temodar) necessary for the effective treatment of tumors of
the central nervous system. *Cuban children are denied the benefit of the
U.S.-made Amplatzer device which could help them to avoid open heart
surgery. *Cubans were denied $4.1 million for treating AIDS, Tuberulosis and
Malaria when these monies were seized by the U.S. from an NGO which had
earmarked those monies for Cuba. *Cubans were denied the funds
designated by the United Nations Program for Development for Cuba's health
care system when those monies were seized by the U.S. *Cubans are denied
critical drugs for treating bone cancer and HIV AIDS.
Other Links
Its neocolonialism!
THE neo-colonialism of today represents imperialism in its final and perhaps
its most dangerous stage. In the past it was possible to convert a country
upon which a neo-colonial regime had been imposed Egypt in the
nineteenth century is an example into a colonial territory. Today this
process is no longer feasible. Old-fashioned colonialism is by no means
entirely abolished. It still constitutes an African problem, but it is everywhere
on the retreat. Once a territory has become nominally independent it is no
longer possible, as it was in the last century, to reverse the process. Existing
colonies may linger on, but no new colonies will be created. In place of
colonialism as the main instrument of imperialism we have today neocolonialism. The essence of neo-colonialism is that the State which is subject
to it is, in theory, independent and has all the outward trappings of
international sovereignty. In reality its economic system and thus its political
policy is directed from outside. The methods and form of this direction can
take various shapes. For example, in an extreme case the troops of the
imperial power may garrison the territory of the neo-colonial State and
control the government of it. More often, however, neo-colonialist control is
exercised through economic or monetary means. The neo-colonial State may
be obliged to take the manufactured products of the imperialist power to the
exclusion of competing products from elsewhere. Control over government
policy in the neo-colonial State may be secured by payments towards the
cost of running the State, by the provision of civil servants in positions where
they can dictate policy, and by monetary control over foreign exchange
through the imposition of a banking system controlled by the imperial power.
Where neo-colonialism exists the power exercising control is often the State
which formerly ruled the territory in question, but this is not necessarily so.
For example, in the case of South Vietnam the former imperial power was
France, but neo-colonial control of the State has now gone to the United
States. It is possible that neo-colonial control may be exercised by a
consortium of financial interests which are not specifically identifiable with
any particular State. The control of the Congo by great international financial
concerns is a case in point. The result of neo-colonialism is that foreign
capital is used for the exploitation rather than for the development of the less
developed parts of the world. Investment under neo-colonialism increases
rather than decreases the gap between the rich and the poor countries of the
world. The struggle against neo-colonialism is not aimed at excluding the
capital of the developed world from operating in less developed countries. It
is aimed at preventing the financial power of the developed countries being
used in such a way as to impoverish the less developed. Non-alignment, as
practised by Ghana and many other countries, is based on co-operation with
all States whether they be capitalist, socialist or have a mixed economy. Such
a policy, therefore, involves foreign investment from capitalist countries, but

it must be invested in accordance with a national plan drawn up by the
government of the non-aligned State with its own interests in mind. The issue
is not what return the foreign investor receives on his investments. He may,
in fact, do better for himself if he invests in a non-aligned country than if he
invests in a neo-colonial one. The question is one of power.
Aid Link
In the first place, the rulers of neo-colonial States derive their authority to
govern, not from the will of the people, but from the support which they
obtain from their neo-colonialist masters. They have therefore little interest in
developing education, strengthening the bargaining power of their workers
employed by expatriate firms, or indeed of taking any step which would
challenge the colonial pattern of commerce and industry, which it is the
object of neo-colonialism to preserve. Aid, therefore, to a neo-colonial State
is merely a revolving credit, paid by the neo-colonial master, passing through
the neo-colonial State and returning to the neo-colonial master in the form of
increased profits. Secondly, it is in the field of aid that the rivalry of
individual developed States first manifests itself. So long as neo-colonialism
persists so long will spheres of interest persist, and this makes multilateral
aid which is in fact the only effective form of aid impossible. Once
multilateral aid begins the neo-colonialist masters are f aced by the hostility
of the vested interests in their own country. Their manufacturers naturally
object to any attempt to raise the price of the raw materials which they
obtain from the neo-colonialist territory in question, or to the establishment
there of manufacturing industries which might compete directly or indirectly
with their own exports to the territory. Even education is suspect as likely to
produce a student movement and it is, of course, true that in many less
developed countries the students have been in the vanguard of the fight
against neo-colonialism. In the end the situation arises that the only type of
aid which the neo-colonialist masters consider as safe is military aid. Once a
neo-colonialist territory is brought to such a state of economic chaos and
misery that revolt actually breaks out then, and only then, is there no limit to
the generosity of the neo-colonial overlord, provided, of course, that the
funds supplied are utilised exclusively for military purposes. Military aid in
fact marks the last stage of neo-colonialism and its effect is self-destructive.
Sooner or later the weapons supplied pass into the hands of the opponents of
the neo-colonialist regime and the war itself increases the social misery
which originally provoked it.
Colonialist relic
Pepper 9 (Margot, Author of Through the Wall: A Year in Havana, a memoir
about working in Cuba during the Special Period. Her work has appeared in
the Utne Reader and Monthly Review and on Z-net, Counterpunch, and
elsewhere, http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2009/0309pepper.html
April 1)
On January 1, Cuba celebrated the 50th anniversary of the revolution against
the U.S.-backed Batista regime. For 47 of those years, Cuba has suffered
under what U.S. officials call an embargo against the Caribbean nation.
Cubans name for the embargoel bloqueo (the blockade)is arguably more
apt, given that the U.S. policy also aims to restrict other countries from
engaging in business with Cuba. Whats surprising is that while the blockade
continues to take a considerable toll on the Cuban people, it costs the
United States far more, and the gap is widening. Given the economic
meltdown, it is only fitting that a growing chorus of diverse voices is calling
for an end to the costly vendetta. The original justification for the embargo
was Cubas expropriation of some $1.8 billion worth of U.S.-owned
property, according to the U.S. Foreign Claims Settlement Commission. In
turn, Cubans argue that early in the century, the United States had seized
control of 70% of Cuban land and three-quarters of Cubas primary industry.
By the 1950s, as a result of U.S. colonialism and preceding Spanish rule, five
out of six Cubans lived in shacks or were homeless, 80% of Havana suffered
from hunger and unemployment, and two out of three Cuban children didnt
attend school. Cubans say such conditions left them no recourse but to expel
the Yanquis, just as the Yankees had expelled the British in 1776.
Sanctions Bad
Cortright 95 (David, Humanitarian Sanctions? The Moral and Political
Issues, http://www.wcl.american.edu/hrbrief/v3i1/cortri31.htm)
The most serious questions regarding the use of sanctions concern their
humanitarian impact. Many believe that sanctions cause excessive economic
hardship and suffering among vulnerable populations while having little effect
on those in power. Conventional theory holds that the effectiveness of
sanctions is directly proportional to the level of pain they impose on a target
nation. Some analysts take issue with this view, arguing that there is no
necessary causal relationship between the amount of hardship caused by
sanctions and the degree of political change adopted by a target nation.
Others contend that sanctions are questionable ethically because they
impose disproportionate harm on innocent civilians. UN Secretary General
Boutros Boutros-Ghali, in his Supplement to an Agenda for Peace report,
questioned "whether suffering inflicted on vulnerable groups in the target
country is a legitimate means of exerting pressure on political leaders." The
issues of humanitarian impact and effectiveness of sanctions are directly
interconnected. When economic measures are imposed, the result in the
target country can be either a "rally- around-the-flag" effect or an "internal
opposition" effect. In the former, the leadership uses external pressures to
invoke patriotic and nationalist forces in support of government policies, a
pattern apparent in Iraq and Serbia. In the latter, sanctions empower
domestic opposition groups and isolate the political elites responsible for
wrongdoing. This effect was substantially evident in the case of South Africa,
and to a more limited degree, in Haiti. Obviously, the goal of nations
implementing economic sanctions should be to create an internal opposition
effect rather than a rally effect. This will depend on the ethical and
humanitarian consequences of the sanctions regime. Much thought has
been devoted recently to the ethical criteria for imposing sanctions. Some
argue that although sanctions imposing hardship on a target nation may be
appropriate, they should not drive living standards of the general population
below subsistence levels. A sanctions regime that goes beyond this standard
loses political and moral legitimacy. Arguing from a just war perspective,
others make the related point that sanctions should never deprive a civilian
population of the basic human right to life and survival. Moreover, the
international community has a responsibility to provide humanitarian
assistance and alleviate the suffering of the most vulnerable victims of
sanctions. Pacifists argue that nations imposing economic sanctions have an
affirmative obligation to provide humanitarian aid and protect the lives of
vulnerable populations in a target nation. This raises the related issue of
sanctions as an alternative to war. Too often, sanctions are a prelude to war
rather than an alternative.
While the United States consistently justified its policies in terms of

preventing Iraq from developing weapons or threatening its neighbors, the
U.S. policy went well beyond any rational concern with security. There was an
elaborate architecture of policies that found a dozen other ways to simply do
gratuitous harm that had not the least relation to the threat Iraq might have
posed to its neighbors or to anyone else.
For thirteen years the United States unilaterally prevented Iraq from
importing nearly everything related to electricity, telecommunications, and
transportation, blocked much of what was needed for agriculture and housing
construction, and even prohibited some equipment and materials necessary
for health care and food preparation.
Ironically, where the United States accused the Iraqi government of acting
with incomprehensible perversity, such as failing to order needed medicines,
it turns out that in many cases it was the U.S. positions that were
incomprehensible and perverse, such as objecting to Iraqs import of
antibiotics and child vaccines.
Throughout the sanctions regime, U.S. practices were extreme and harsh, and
often unilateral, going well beyond the mandate of the Security Councils
resolutions, and well beyond the will of the rest of the Council members. The
Security Council resolutions required the elimination of Iraqs weapons of
mass destruction (WMD). However, the goal of the United States was the
elimination of Iraqs capacity to produce WMD. While the production of
nuclear weapons requires a large and sophisticated production facility, the
production of biological and chemical weapons, or at least some of their
components, can take place in nothing more than a college chemistry lab or
in manufacturing facilities for things like fertilizers and pesticides. To
eliminate a nations capacity to produce biological and chemical weapons
means eliminating all science education above the secondary school level,
eliminating the capacity to produce yogurt and cheese, or, as one U.S. official
would have it, eliminating eggs, because egg yolks could possibly be used as
a medium in which to grow viruses, which in turn could possibly be used for
biological weapons.
Any industrialized nation relies continually on manufacturing processes that
could possibly be converted to produce some aspect of a biological or
chemical weapon. To eliminate this capacity, as opposed to the weapons
themselves, would literally require reducing a nation to the most primitive
possible condition and keeping it in those circumstances in perpetuity. That
was not at all the policy adopted by the Security Council, which required only
that Iraq be subject to partial disarmament and monitoring, but it was the
policy of the United States.
The deliberate and systematic nature of the U.S. policy was evident above all
in the redundancy. The water treatment system was compromised first by the
lack of equipment and chemicals for water purification; but if Iraq had
somehow been able to produce or smuggle those, the water system would
then have been compromised by the lack of electrical power, because
electrical generators and related equipment had been bombed, and because
the replacement equipment was blocked by the United States. If Iraq had
been somehow able to generate sufficient electricity, then the clean water
could not have been distributed because the bombings had caused so much
breakage in the water pipes, and the United States then blocked the
importation of water pipes. If Iraq had somehow been able to smuggle or
manufacture water pipes, it did not have the bulldozers or cranes necessary
to install them because those were blocked as well. The same was true in
every area: agricultural production, manufacturing of basic goods,
transportation, communication systems, education, and medical care. It was

this terrible redundancy that ensured that nothing the Iraqi government did,
that no amount of ingenuity or adaptation or targeting of resources, could
have restored conditions fit to sustain human life.
As the criticism grew, there is no sign that anyone in the U.S. administration,
and only a tiny handful within Congress, actually took it to heart actually
questioned the sanity and legality of reducing an entire civilization to a
preindustrial state, of bankrupting an entire nation for the purpose of
containing one tyrannical man. As the criticism grew and the suffering
continued on a massive scale, the U.S. administration stubbornly saw itself as
alone in its moral leadership, never grasping the significance or thoroughness
of its isolation and marginality. It seems that the United States simply could
not see its policies the way the rest of the world did: not just Arab nations, or
France or Russia, but nearly everyone the General Assembly, NGOs,
UNMOVIC, the UNs human rights rapporteur, every UN humanitarian agency,
and nearly every member of the Security Council.
U.S. officials did not act with the deliberate cruelty that is envisioned by
international human rights law. It was not a hatred of Iraqis that led U.S.
officials to act as they did; it was the decision that the Iraqis would bear the
cost of the United States intractable political dilemma. This particular
catastrophe did not require actual hatred; it required only the capacity of U.S.
officials to believe their own rationales, however implausible they might have
been, and that there be no venue in which to challenge their reasoning as
casuistic and disingenuous. Madeline Albrights memorable gaffe in response
to the question 500,000 children is it worth it? which she regretted for
years was always and only a public relations error. It made no difference
that she and other State Department officials, from that point on, vigorously
insisted that they cared deeply about Iraqi children. The more accurate
answer, regardless of the public rhetoric, was: of course it was worth it.
Blocking glue, water pipes, water tankers, thermos fl asks, ambulance radios,
irrigation equipment all of this was worth it because the negligible
imaginary possibility that these could be turned to nefarious purposes always
outweighed the collapse of the Iraqi health system, Iraqs frantic efforts to
increase agricultural production, the disappearance of Iraqs middle class, the
hundreds of thousands of tons of untreated sewage that went daily into Iraqs
rivers.
Sandlin 13 (Evan, Political Science at UC Berkeley, The Uselessness and

Immorality of Economic Sanctions,
http://speakprogress.wordpress.com/2013/02/26/57/, 2/26/13)
According to a recent report by Reuters,[1] US backed crippling sanctions
against Iran have not brought the country significantly closer to economic
collapse, nor have they persuaded the leadership to open diplomatic relations
with the United States regarding Irans atomic energy program. What Iranian
sanctions have done, is make the life of the Iranian people miserable. Poultry
prices have tripled, inflation is thought to be over 50%, output in the auto
sector has been cut in half, and there is a massive shortage of medicine
needed for diseases such as cancer, hemophilia, and HIV/AIDS[2]. Pharmacy
in Iran It is evident that the sanctions are not targeting the Iranian regime,
rather they are targeting the civilian population. Vice President Joe Biden
admitted as much when earlier this month when he said, we have also made
clear that Irans leaders need not sentence their people to economic
deprivation[3]. Sanctions are intended to target the civilian population. The
logic being that, a populace, when pushed to the periphery of survival, will
either overthrow their government or pressure their government to bow down
to US commands, so as to avoid further suffering and destitution. President
Wilson once called them the peaceful, silent, deadly remedythat does not
cost a life outside of the nation boycotted. US Vice-President Biden gives a
speech at the 49th Conference on Security Policy in Munich This is the logic
behind not only the sanctions against Iran, but the sanctions against Cuba,
and the sanctions against North Korea. It is the logic that resulted in the
deaths of half a million people in Iraq during the Clinton administration. Is this
tool of economic deprivation, that results in such wonton death and suffering
even remotely effective? Dr. Miroslav Nincic, professor of International
Relations at UC Davis, remarked that the debate within the political science
community is, on just how badly economic sanctions perform; some argue
sanctions usually fail in their direct policy goal, while others claim that they
almost always do[4]. With very few exceptions, sanctions nearly always fail
in their stated policy goals. In Robert Papes 1997 analysis he estimated that
out of 115 cases of sanctions, only 5 could be considered successes[5].
Pedestrians stop to look at imported suits at a high-street clothing store in
north Tehran Why then does the United States pursue such means if they are
well known demonstrable failures? There is only one reasonable explanation:
sanctions are used as a symbol of denunciation. Sanctions grant the United
States an opportunity to publically condemn governments without having to
bear the costs of taking further action. When analyzed within this context,
the immorality economic of sanctions becomes striking. It would be
deplorable enough to starve hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children to death,
regardless of the policy goal, but our government did it for nothing. Iraqi
children starved to death for no other reason than because our government
wanted to make a statement. Ci2pub2 We are told that sanctions are an
effective tool to pressure antagonistic regimes, but like the destitution of
Iraqis in the past, the current suffering of Iranians will achieve no goal that
the United States has publically articulated. It is a regrettable consequence of
American hegemony, serving only the ability of US policy makers to
grandstand.
Sherman (Martin, founder and executive director of the Israel Institute for
Strategic Studies, , Into the Fray: Illogical, ineffectual, immoral
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Into-the-Fray-Illogical-ineffectualimmoral, 10/4/12)
Lesley Stahl (on US sanctions against Iraq): We have heard that a half million
children have died. I mean, thats more children than died in Hiroshima.... Is
the price worth it? Madeleine Albright (then-UN ambassador, later
secretary of state in the Clinton administration): I think this is a very hard
choice, but... we think the price is worth it. 60 Minutes, May 12, 1996 US
economic sanctions against North Korea have failed for 40 years... Economic
sanctions are blunt instruments that wreak havoc with an economy. They
especially afflict a countrys ordinary citizens, often without affecting the
ruling elite. Thomas Henriksen, Hoover Institute, Stanford University,

October 1998 Wednesdays protests against the Iranian regime are an
encouraging sign that sanctions imposed on that country are beginning to
bite, but it is way too early to deem them a sign of success in halting Tehrans
drive for nuclear capability. For although it certainly would be a welcome
outcome if the sanctions induce Iran to end its nuclear program before it
attains the ability to weaponize the enriched uranium it has/will have
produced, there is good reason to doubt that they will. Flawed logic of
sanctions Experience leaves scant room for optimism. In recent decades,
sanctions no matter how severe have had little success in coercing
dictatorial regimes to comply with demands from the international
community. The operational rationale of sanctions, as an instrument of
policy, has, in many respects, been deeply flawed, particularly if their
objective is to elicit timely compliance from a despotic regime. To a large
degree, the envisaged mechanism of their operation is entirely illogical. In
principle, sanctions try to achieve their goal by imposing punitive measures
typically the denial of welfare-producing goods/services on a civilian
population that has little influence on, and whose well-being is largely
irrelevant to, the despotic rulers from whom compliance is required. Those
who are subject to the sanctions have little, if any, contact with those who
are the object of the sanctions. It is thus highly improbable that the suffering
of the former will induce the latter to make the response the sanctions were
designed to precipitate certainly not with the required alacrity. This stark
disconnect between cause and effect was dramatically illustrated in the case
of Iraq, where unspeakable hardships wrought by sanctions on the civilian
population, for over a decade, failed to make Saddam Hussein bow to
international demands. Inefficacy of sanctions The futility of inflicting
punishment on people who can neither make the requisite decision for
terminating the punishment, nor sway those who can, was succinctly
conveyed in a 2011 Strategic Research Project conducted at the US Army War
College (USAWC) on the Efficacy of Economic Sanctions: After Iraq invaded
Kuwait in 1990 the UNSC passed Resolution 661, imposing the most
comprehensive sanctions ever implemented by the UN.... Resolution 661
created a humanitarian crisis in Iraq in the late 1990s. Yet, as the Strategic
Research Project noted, despite the comprehensiveness of the sanctions and
the widespread human suffering they caused, the sanctions did not succeed
in forcing Iraqi forces to leave Kuwait, instead forcing the UN to use military
force to achieve the resolutions objectives. Continuation of sanctions after
the First Gulf War failed to achieve full compliance by Iraq of the cease-fire
resolution, providing partial justification for the invasion and toppling of the
Iraqi government in 2003. The project goes on to conclude: Economic
sanctions have had minimal effect in dissuading [countries such as] Pakistan,
N. Korea and Iran from pursuing and obtaining nuclear weapons, since their
drive to acquire nuclear capability outweighed any negative costs from
sanctions. Significantly, it observes that when sanctions are applied to
regimes such as in Iraq, these eventually required reinforcing by military
action to finally force compliance. Flawed morality of sanctions It is not
only the logic and the efficacy of sanctions that are flawed, but in many ways,
their morality. For as we have seen, almost by definition, they target innocent
civilians. When this is applied to extremely authoritarian regimes, it appears
little more than mindless injustice, for the victims of the sanctions have little
capacity to change the policy for which sanctions were applied. Imposing
deepening and prolonged deprivation on them seems senseless and futile.
Perusal of the impact of the effects of sanctions reveals that there is little
room for those who advocate sanctions over the use of military force to claim
the moral high ground. For example, the sanctions against Iraq were a neartotal financial and trade embargo imposed by the UN. They began on August
6, 1990, four days after Iraqs invasion of Kuwait, staying largely in force until
May 2003. Although there is considerable dispute as to the exact figures,
what is beyond dispute is that the sanctions resulted in death, disease and
destitution on an appalling scale. (As an aside, it is worthy of note that the
suffering inflicted by this US-led, UN-endorsed initiative dwarfs that allegedly
caused by Israels quarantine of Gaza. Moreover, most the participating
countries were not directly threatened by the Iraqi regime, neither in terms of
their national security, nor in terms of the physical safety of their citizens, in
the way Israel and Israelis are threatened by the regime in Gaza.) Death,
disease and destitution The estimates of sanction-related deaths in Iraq
have been put as high as one million, up to 500,000 of them children. There
was a dramatic and documented spike in infant mortality, more than doubling
(from 47 to 108 per 1,000 live births) in the southern and central areas of the
country. Water-borne diseases were rampant because of the prohibition on
importation of chlorine and equipment for sewage treatment plants.
Malnutrition was rife particularly among children, afflicting up to one-third of
under-five year olds. But medical ailments were not the only problem. There
was a surge in social ills as well. Literacy rates plummeted particularly
among women. In the 1980s, Iraq had been declared illiteracy-free by
UNESCO. Today, it has one of the highest levels of illiteracy in the region.
The per capita income in Iraq dropped from $3,510 in 1989 to $450 in 1996,
heavily influenced by the rapid devaluation of the Iraqi dinar. In late 1989,
one dinar was valued at over $3 (although the black-market rate was
considerably lower). Six years later, $1 was valued at 3,000 dinars! As
poverty became more pervasive, crime and corruption proliferated and Iraqi
society became increasing fractured and dysfunctional. Yet despite all this
widespread misery and suffering of the populace, Saddam remained defiant
and compliance could only be achieved by force. Tyrants tolerance for
tribulation Tyrants have typically shown remarkably high tolerance for the
tribulations of others. North Korea is an archetypical case in point. Despite
decades of sanctions that imposed crippling penury, famine and starvation on
millions of its citizens, it has failed to bow to Western demands, either with
regard to human rights or nuclear ambitions. It comprises an edifying and
sobering example for Israel. Clearly the North Korean outcome, in which the
acquisition of weaponized nuclear capability was not prevented, is
unacceptable for Israel. For it, the specter of a nuclearized theocratic tyranny
in Tehran has existential significance, far beyond any that a nuclearized
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea has for the US or its allies.
Accordingly, the elements of Pyongyangs resilience and resistance to
sanctions are a matter of acute relevance to Israel. The observations of the
previously cited USAWC study are significant: N. Korea presents an
extremely difficult challenge for the US. Kim Jong-II realizes that the US and
the world will not resort to military force. As long as enforcement of the
sanctions can be circumvented through China and other third-parties, Kim

Jong-II [today Kim Jong- Un] has no incentive to change his path. The
message is clear: In the absence of a credible military threat, sanctions can
and typically are circumvented while the targeted regime pursues its
malevolent goals. Circumventing sanctions while centrifuges spin A paper,
Sanctions as Grand Strategy, published by the International Institute for
Strategic Studies (2011), drew a grim parallel between the sources of
resilience of the Iranian and North Korean regimes: ... third-party support for
Pyongyang and Tehran has had the biggest impact in terms of helping these
countries to circumvent the worst effects of sanctions, particularly those
targeting trade. Likewise, the USAWC study warns, Target nations often
find it easy to circumvent sanctions by changing habits, finding alternate
sources on the black market, or directing the effects away from the regime
and down on the populace. Few countries are better endowed to
circumvent than Iran. It shares a land border of almost 6,000 km. with
seven neighbors (Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey and
Turkmenistan) and has direct maritime access to Russia and Kazakhstan (via
the Caspian Sea) and to numerous counties on the Arabian peninsula across
the Persian Gulf. Indeed, a circumventers paradise. Moreover, Irans
economy is vastly larger than North Koreas, with a GDP over 20 times higher,
and roughly triple its GDP per capita. Accordingly, there is much leeway left
before sanctions inflict the kind of economic pain that Pyongyang (and pre2003 Baghdad) endured or allowed its people to endure without
submitting to the will of the sanction-imposers. Deceptive deterioration
Accordingly, Irans capacity to circumvent sanctions and to compensate for
their impact should not be underestimated, especially over time. Reports of
the impending collapse of the Iranian economy, the ravages of its devaluing
currency and the spread of civil unrest should be regarded with caution. For
even if true, these developments may have little or at best, a long-delayed
impact on decision-making echelons in Tehran. This point is often lost on
proponents of sanctions/opponents of military force, such as The New York
Times Nicholas Kristof and The Atlantics J.J. Goldberg, who seem to have
difficulty distinguishing between wreaking harm on the Iranian public and
getting the ayatollahs to stop the centrifuges. In an inane blog post (June
20) titled Mr. Netanyahu, Meet Mr. Kristof, Goldberg quotes Kristofs opinion
piece (June 16), which conveys the anger and anguish some Iranian
manufacturers and traders are feeling, expressing optimistic hope that these
might be the harbingers of regime change. What he studiously neglects to
mention is that Kristof also describes the abundant availability of up-to-date
computers, tablets and smartphones, remarking that despite everything Iran
is a relatively rich and sophisticated country. More significantly, Goldberg
omits to mention how Iranian businessmen are finding ways to sidestep
sanctions and hence delay or attenuate their effects such as the use of
the Hawala system (an informal Islamic network for financial transfers) in
response to the ban on Iran using the SWIFT facility. Too early, too early...
Oops! Too late For Israel the issue of time is crucial to its operational
decision-making, and the question of when sanctions might succeed is no
less pivotal than if they succeed. Thus underestimating Irans resilience is an
unacceptable risk for Israel. For in a world of inherent uncertainty, where
by definition a decision-maker can never know if he/she can get his/her
timing exactly right, it would be far better to launch an attack a little too
early, than a little too late. As Middle East Forum fellow Asaf Romirowsky
recently remarked: Israel cannot afford to make any mistakes regarding Iran
because do-overs are not an option. For those who warn of Iranian
reprisals if force is used, it should be underscored that there is little reason to
believe that the negative repercussions of an attack, launched exactly at the
last minute, are likely to be significantly different from those of one launched
a little too early. Some have warned that a military strike would galvanize
the population behind the regime. This leaves one to wonder why suffering
induced by military action, resulting from regime-recalcitrance, would induce
the population to unite in support of the leaders, while sufferings induced by
prolonged sanctions would not. Of course it is difficult to predict with any
certainty, but there is a respectable body of scholarly opinion which holds
that economic attacks may rally a beleaguered population to its despot, who
points to the United States as the source of its lowered living standards rather
than his failed statist policies.
So who knows?
Coloniality of Power
1NC
Globalization is rooted in coloniality ( not colonialism!),
where the racist and colonial beginnings of development,
capitalism, and old imperialism still motivate racial
inequalities and economic neo-colonial domination today
under the guise of capitalism and development
Quijano 2000 (Anibal, Sociologist and humanist thinker, PhD from UNMSM
in Peru, Professor of Sociology at Binghamton University, Coloniality of
Power, Eurocentrism, and Latin America pg 533 537)
What is termed globalization is the culmination of a process that

began with the constitution of America and colonial/modern
Eurocentered capitalism as a new global power. One of the
fundamental axes of this model of power is the social
classification of the worlds population around the idea of race, a
mental construction that expresses the basic experience of
colonial domination and pervades the more important dimensions
of global power, including its specific rationality: Eurocentrism.
The racial axis has a colonial origin and character, but it has
proven to be more durable and stable than the colonialism in
whose matrix it was established. Therefore, the model of power
that is globally hegemonic today presupposes an element of
coloniality. In what follows, myprimaryaim is to open up some of
the theoreticallynecessaryquestions about the implications of
colonialityof power regarding the historyof Latin America.1
America and the New Model of Global Power America was
constituted as the first space/time of a new model of power of
global vocation, and both in this wayand byit became the first
identityof modernity. Two historical processes associated in the
production of that space/time converged and established the two
fundamental axes of the new model of power. One was the
codification of the differences between conquerors and
conquered in the idea of race, a supposedly different biological
structure that placed some in a natural situation of inferiority to
the others. The conquistadors assumed this idea as the
constitutive, founding element of the relations of domination that
the conquest imposed. On Nepantla: Views from South 1.3
Copyright 2000 by Duke University Press 533~34 Nepantla this
basis, the population of America, and later the world, was
classified within the new model of power. The other process was
the constitution of a new structure of control of labor and its
resources and products. This new structure was an articulation of
all historicallyknown previous structures of control of labor,

slavery, serfdom, small independent commodity production and
reciprocity, together around and upon the basis of capital and the
world market.3 Race: A Mental Category of Modernity The idea of
race, in its modern meaning, does not have a known history
before the colonization of America. Perhaps it originated in
reference to the phenotypic differences between conquerors and
conquered.4 However, what matters is that soon it was
constructed to refer to the supposed differential biological
structures between those groups. Social relations founded on the
categoryof race produced new historical social identities in
AmericaIndians, blacks, and mestizos and redefined others.
Terms such asSpanishandPortuguese, and much later European,
which until then indicated onlygeographic origin or country of
origin, acquired from then on a racial connotation in reference to
the new identities. Insofar as the social relations that were being
configured were relations of domination, such identities were
considered constitutive of the hierarchies, places, and
corresponding social roles, and consequently of the model of
colonial domination that was being imposed. In other words, race
and racial identitywere established as instruments of basic social
classification. As time went by, the colonizers codified the
phenotypic trait of the colonized as color, and theyassumed it as
the emblematic characteristic of racial category. That
categorywas probablyinitiallyestablished in the area of AngloAmerica. There so-called blacks were not onlythe most important
exploited group, since the principal part of the economyrested on
their labor; theywere, above all, the most important colonized
race, since Indians were not part of that colonial society.Why the
dominant group calls itself white is a storyrelated to racial
classification.5 In America,the idea of race was a wayof granting
legitimacytothe relations of domination imposed bythe conquest.
After the colonization of America andthe expansion of European
colonialismtothe rest ofthe world, the subsequent constitution of
Europe as a newid-entityneededthe elaboration of a Eurocentric
perspective of knowledge, a theoretical perspective on the idea
of race as a naturalization of colonial relations between
Europeans~35 Quijano. Power, Eurocentrism, and Latin America
and non-Europeans. Historically, this meant a new way of
legitimizing the alreadyold ideas and practices of relations of
superiority/inferiority between dominant and dominated. From
the sixteenth centuryon, this principle has proven to be the most
effective and long-lasting instrument of universal social

domination, since the much older principlegender or intersexual
dominationwas encroached upon bythe inferior/superior racial
classifications. So the conquered and dominated peoples were
situated in a natural position of inferiority and, as a result, their
phenotypic traits as well as their cultural features were
considered inferior.6 In this way, race became the fundamental
criterion for the distribution of the world population into ranks,
places, and roles in the new societys structure of power.
Capitalism, the New Structure for the Control of Labor In the
historical process of the constitution of America, all forms of
control and exploitation of labor and production, as well as the
control of appropriation and distribution of products, revolved
around the capital-salary relation and the world market. These
forms of labor control included slavery, serfdom, pettycommodity production, reciprocity, and wages. In such an
assemblage, each form of labor control was no mere extension of
its historical antecedents. All of these forms of labor were
historicallyand sociologicallynew: in the first place, because
theywere deliberatelyestablished and organized to produce
commodities for the world market; in the second place, because
theydid not merelyexist simultaneouslyin the same space/time,
but each one of them was also articulated to capital and its
market. Thus theyconfigured a new global model of labor control,
and in turn a fundamental element of a new model of power to
which theywere historicallystructurallydependent. That is to say, the place
and function, and therefore the historical movement, of all forms of labor as subordinated points of a
totalitybelonged to the new model of power, in spite of their heterogeneous specific traits and their
discontinuous relations with that totality. In the third place, and as a consequence, each form of labor
developed into new traits and historical-structural configurations. Insofar asthat structure of control of
labor, resources, and products consisted of the joint articulation of all the respective historicallyknown
forms, a global model of control of work was established for the first time in known history. And while it
was constituted around and in the service of capital, its configuration as a whole was established with a
capitalist character as well. Thus emerged a new, original, and singular structure~36 Nepantla of
relations of production in the historical experience of the world: world capitalism. Coloniality of Power
and Global Capitalism The new historical identities produced around the foundation of the idea of race in
the new global structure of the control of labor were associated with social roles and geohistorical places.
In this way, both race and the division of labor remained structurallylinked and mutuallyreinforcing, in
spite of the fact that neither of them were necessarilydependent on the other in order to exist or
change. In this way, a systematic racial division of labor was imposed. In the Hispanic region, the Crown
of Castilla decided earlyon to end the enslavement of the Indians in order to prevent their total
extermination. They were instead confined to serfdom. For those that lived in communities, the ancient
practice of reciprocitythe exchange of labor force and labor without a marketwas allowed as a wayof
reproducing its labor force as serfs. In some cases, the Indian nobility, a reduced minority, was exempted
from serfdom and received special treatment owing to their roles as intermediaries with the dominant
race. Theywere also permitted to participate in some of the activities of the nonnoble Spanish. However,
blacks were reduced to slavery. As the dominant race, Spanish and Portuguese whites could receive
wages, be independent merchants, independent artisans, or independent farmersin short, independent
producers of commodities. Nevertheless, onlynobles could participate in the high-to-midrange positions in
the militaryand civil colonial administration. Beginning in the eighteenth century, in Hispanic America an
extensive and important social stratum of mestizos (born of Spanish men and Indian women) began to
participate in the same offices and activities as nonnoble Iberians. To a lesser extent, and above all in
activities of service or those that required a specialized talent (music, for example), the more
whitened amongthe mestizos of black women and Spanish or Portuguese had an opportunityto work.
But theywere late in legitimizing their new roles, since their mothers were slaves. This racist distribution
of labor in the interior of colonial/modern capitalism was maintained throughout the colonial period. In
the course of the worldwide expansion of colonial domination on the part of the same dominant race (or,
from the eighteenth century onward, Europeans), the same criteria of social classification were imposed
on all of the world population. As a result, new historical and social~37 Quijano. Power, Eurocentrism,
and Latin America identities were produced: yellows and olives were added to whites, Indians, blacks,
and mestizos. The racist distribution of new social identities was combined, as had been done so
successfullyin Anglo-America, with a racist distribution of labor and the forms of exploitation of colonial
capitalism. This was, above all, through a quasi-exclusive association of whiteness with wages and, of
course, with the high-order positions in the colonial administration. Thus each form of labor control was
associated with a particular race. Consequently, the control of a specific form of labor could be, at the
same time, the control of a specific group of dominated people. A new technologyof
domination/exploitation, in this case race/labor, was articulated in such a waythat the two elements
appeared naturallyassociated. Until now, this strategyhas been exceptionallysuccessful.
Coloniality constitutes total control over the entire global

population, is the worst form of imperialism and
Eurocentrism, and the root cause of all economic
problems K is a prerequisite to the case, no economies
can be solved without first divorcing the Eurocentric roots
that wreck them
In the first place, the current model of global power is the first
effectively global one in world history in several specific senses.
First, it is the first where in each sphere of social existence all
historically known forms~45 Quijano. Power, Eurocentrism, and
Latin America of control of respective social relations are
articulated, configuring in each area only one structure with
systematic relations between its components and, by the same
means, its whole. Second, it is the first model where each
structure of each sphere of social existence is under the
hegemony of an institution produced within the process of
formation and development of that same model of power. Thus,
in the control of labor and its resources and products, it is the
capitalist enterprise; in the control of sex and its resources and
products, the bourgeois family; in the control of authority and its
resources and products, the nation-state; in the control of
intersubjectivity, Eurocentrism.17 Third, each one of those
institutions exists in a relation of interdependence with each one
ofthe others. Therefore,the model of power is configured as a
system.18Fourth, finally, this model of global power is the first
that covers the entire planets population. In this specific sense,
humanity in its totality constitutes today the first historically
known global world-system, not onlya world, as were the
Chinese, Hindu, Egyptian, Hellenic-Roman, Aztec-Mayan, or
Tawantinsuyan. None of those worlds had in common but one
colonial/imperial dominant. And though it is a sort of common

sense in the Eurocentric vision, it is by no means certain that all
the peoples incorporated into one of those worlds would have
had in common a basic perspective on the relation between that
which is human and the rest of the universe. The colonial
dominators of each one of those worlds did not have the
conditions, nor, probably, the interest for homogenizing the basic
forms of social existence for all the populations under their
dominion. On the other hand, the modern world-system that
began to form with the colonization of America, has in common
three central elements that affect the quotidian life of the totality
of the global population: the coloniality of power, capitalism, and
Eurocentrism. Of course, this model of power, or any other, can
mean that historical-structural heterogeneity has been
eradicated within its dominions. Its globality means that there is a
basic level of common social practices and a central sphere of
common value orientation for the entire world. Consequently, the hegemonic
institutions of each province of social existence are universal to the population of the world as intersubjective models, as
illustrated by the nation-state, the bourgeois family, the capitalist corporation, and the Eurocentric rationality. Therefore,
whatever it maybe that the termmodernity names today, it involves the totalityof the global population and all the
historyof the last five hundred years, all the worlds or former worlds articulated in the global model of power, each
differentiated or differentiable segment~46 Nepantla constituted together with (as part of) the historical redefinition or
reconstitution of each segment for its incorporation to the new and common model of global power. Therefore, it is also
an articulation of manyrationalities. However, since the model depicts a new and different historywith specific
experiences, the questions that this historyraises cannot be investigated, much less contested, within the Eurocentric
concept of modernity. For this reason, to saythat modernityis a purelyEuropean phenomenon or one that occurs in all
cultures would now have an impossible meaning. Modernity is about something new and different, something specific to
this model of global power. If one must preserve the name, one must also mean another modernity. The central
question that interests us here is the following:What is reallynew with respect to modernity? And bythis I mean not
onlywhat develops and redefines experiences, tendencies, and processes of other worlds, but, also, what was produced
in the present model of global powers own history. Enrique Dussel (1995) has proposed the category transmodernity
as an alternative to the Eurocentric pretension that Europe is the original producer of modernity. According to this
proposal, the constitution of the individual differentiated ego is what began with American colonization and is the mark
of modernity, but it has a place not only in Europe but also in the entire world that American settlement configured.
Dussel hits the mark in refusing one of the favorite myths of Eurocentrism. But it is not certain that the individual,
differentiated ego is a phenomenon belonging exclusivelyto the period initiated with America. There is, of course, an
umbilical relation between the historical processes that were generated and that began with America and the changes in
subjectivityor, better said, the intersubjectivityof all the peoples that were integrated into the new model of global
power. And those changes brought the constitution of a new intersubjectivity, not only individually, but collectively as
well. This is, therefore, a new phenomenon that entered in historywith America and in that sense is part of modernity.
But whatever they might have been, those changes were not constituted from the individual (nor from the collective)
subjectivityof a preexisting world. Or, to use an old image, those changes are born not like Pallas Athena from the head
of Zeus, but are rather the subjective or intersubjective expression of what the peoples of the world are doing at that
moment. From this perspective, it is necessaryto admit that the colonization of America, its immediate consequences in
the global market, and the formation of a new model of global power are a trulytremendous historical~47 Quijano.
Power, Eurocentrism, and Latin America change and that theyaffect not onlyEurope but the entire globe. This is not a
change in a known world that merelyaltered some of its traits. It is a change in the world as such. This is, without doubt,
the founding element of the new subjectivity: the perception of historical change. It is this element that unleashed the
process of the constitution of a new perspective about time and about history. The perception of change brings about a
new idea of the future, since it is the onlyterritoryof time where the changes can occur. The future is an open temporal
territory. Time can be new, and so not merelythe extension of the past. And in this wayhistorycan be perceived now not
onlyas something that happens, something natural or produced bydivine decisions or mysteries as destiny, but also as
something that can be produced bythe action of people, bytheir calculations, their intention, their decisions, and
therefore as something that can be designed, and consequently, can have meaning (Quijano 1988a). With America an
entire universe of new material relations and intersubjectivities was initiated. It is pertinent to admit that the concept of
modernitydoes not refer onlyto what happens with subjectivity(despite all the tremendous importance of that process),
to the individual ego, to a new universe of intersubjective relations between individuals and the peoples integrated
intothe new world-system and its specific model of global power. The concept of modernityaccounts equallyfor the
changes in the material dimensions of social relations (i.e., world capitalism, colonialityof power). That is to say, the
changes that occur on all levels of social existence, and therefore happentotheir individual members, arethe same intheir
material and intersubjective dimensions. And since modernity is about processes that were initiated withthe
emergence of America, of a new model of global power (the first world-system), and of the integration of all the peoples
of the globe in that process, it is also essential to admit that it is about an entire historical period. In other words,
starting with America, a new space/time was constituted materiallyand subjectively: this is what the concept of
modernitynames. Nevertheless, it was decisive for the process of modernitythat the hegemonic center of the world
would be localized in the north-central zones of Western Europe. That process helps to explain whythe center of
intellectual conceptualization will be localized in Western Europe as well, and whythat version acquired global hegemony.
The same process helps, equally, to explain the colonialityof power that will playa part of the first order inthe
Eurocentric elaboration of modernity. This last point is not very difficult to perceive if we bear in mind what has been
shown just above:~48 Nepantla the wayin which the colonialityof power is tied up to the concentration in Europe of
capital, wages, the market of capital, and finally, the society and culture associated with those determinations. In this
sense, modernitywas also colonial from its point of departure. This helps explain whythe global process of
modernization had a much more direct and immediate impact in Europe. In fact, as experience and as idea, the new
social practices involved in the model of global, capitalist power, the concentration of capital and wages, the new
market for capital associated with the new perspective on time and on history, and the centrality of the question of
historical change in that perspective require on one hand the desacralization of hierarchies and authorities, both in the
material dimension of social relations and in its intersubjectivity, and on the other hand the desacralization, change, or
dismantlement of the corresponding structures and institutions. The new individuation of subjectivityonlyacquires its
meaning in this context, because from it stems the necessityfor an individual inner forum in order to think, doubt, and
choose. In short, the individual libertyagainst fixed social ascriptions and, consequently, the necessityfor social
equalityamong individuals. Capitalist determinations, however, required also (and in the same historical movement)
that material and intersubjective social processes could not have a place but within social relations of exploitation and
domination. For the controllers of power, the control of capital and the market were and are what decides the ends, the
means, and the limits of the process. The market is the foundation but also the limit of possible social equality among
people. For those exploited bycapital, and in general those dominated bythe model of power, modernitygenerates a
horizon of liberation for people of everyrelation, structure, or institution linked to domination and exploitation, but also
the social conditions in order to advance toward the direction of that horizon. Modernityis, then, also a question of
conflicting social interests. One of these interests is the continued democratization of social existence. In this sense,
everyconcept of modernityis necessarily ambiguous and contradictory(Quijano 1998a, 2000b). It is preciselyin the
contradictions and ambiguities of modernitythat the historyof these processes so clearlydifferentiates Western Europe
from the rest of the world, as it is clear in Latin America. In Western Europe, the concentration of the wage-capital relation
is the principal axis of the tendencies for social classification and the correspondent structure of power. Economic
structures and social classification underlaythe~49 Quijano. Power, Eurocentrism, and Latin America confrontations
with the old order, with empire, with the papacyduring the period of so-called competitive capital. These conflicts made
it possible for nondominant sectors of capital as well as the exploited to find better conditions to negotiate their place in
the structure of power and in selling their labor power. It also opens the conditions for a specificallybourgeois
secularization of culture and subjectivity. Liberalism is one of the clear expressions of this material and subjective
However, in the rest of the world, and in Latin

America in particular, the most extended forms of labor control
are nonwaged (although for the benefit of global capital), which
implies that the relations of exploitation and domination have a
colonial character. Political independence, at the beginning of the
nineteenth century, is accompanied in the majority of the new
countries by the stagnation and recession of the most advanced
sectors of the capitalist economy and therefore by the
strengthening of the colonial character of social and political
domination under formally independent states. The
Eurocentrification of colonial/modern capitalism was in this sense
decisive for the different destinies of the process of
modernitybetween Europe and the rest of the world (Quijano
1994).
context of Western European society.
Coloniality is the root cause of destructive capitalism (the

bad, structured kind) and slavery and oppression AND
America caused the bad from of capitalism (???)
Slavery, in America, was deliberately established and organized as a
commodity in order to produce goods for the world market and to serve the
purposes and needs of capitalism. Likewise, the serfdom imposed on Indians,
including the redefinition of the institutions of reciprocity, was organized in
order to serve the same ends: to produce merchandise for the global market.
Independent commodityproduction was established and expanded for the

same purposes. This means that all the forms of labor and control of labor
were not onlysimultaneouslyperformed in America, but theywere also
articulated around the axis of capital and the global market. Consequently,
all of these forms of labor were part of a new model of organization and labor
control. Together these forms of labor configured a new economic system:
capitalism. Capital, as a social relation based on the commodification of the
labor force, was probablyborn in some moment around the eleventh or
twelfth centuryin some place in the southern regions of the Iberian and/or
Italian peninsulas and, for known reasons, in the Islamic world.20Capital is
thus much olderthan America. But before the emergence of America, it was
nowhere structurally articulated with all the other forms of organization and
control of the labor force and labor, nor was it predominant over any of them.
Only with America could capital consolidate and obtain global predominance,
becoming precisely the axis around which all forms of labor ~~51 Quijano.
Power, Eurocentrism, and Latin America were articulated to satisfy the ends
of the world market, configuring a new pattern of global control on labor, its
resources, and products: world capitalism. Therefore, capitalism as a system
of relations of production, that is, as the heterogeneous linking of all forms of
control on labor and its products under the dominance of capital, was
constituted in history only with the emergence of America. Beginning with
that historical moment, capital has always existed, and continues to exist to
this day, as the central axis of capitalism. Never has capitalism been
predominant in some other way, on a global and worldwide scale, and in all
probability it would not have been able to develop otherwise.
Border Thinking alt

(made in the abstract + floating PIK + empirical examples
= badass alt card)
Grosfoguel 11 (Ramon, Associate Professor of Chicano/Latino Studies at
UC Berkeley, Post-Doctoral, Fernand Braudel Center/Maison des Sciences de

lHomme, Paris, France, 1993-4 PhD, Sociology, Temple University, 1992 MA,
Urban Studies, Temple Univerisity, 1986 BA, Sociology, University of Puerto
Rico, 1979, Decolonizing Pol Econ and Postcolonial,
http://www.dialogoglobal.com/granada/documents/Grosfoguel-DecolonizingPol-Econ-and-Postcolonial.pdf)
One of many plausible solutions to the Eurocentric versus fundamentalist
dilemma is what Walter Mignolo, following Chicano(a) thinkers such as Gloria
Anzalda (1987) and Jose David Saldvar (1997), calls critical border
thinking (Mignolo 2000). Critical border thinking is the epistemic response
of the subaltern to the Eurocentric project of modernity. Instead of rejecting
modernity to retreat into a fundamentalist absolutism, border
epistemologies subsume/redefines the emancipatory rhetoric of modernity
from the cosmologies and epistemologies of the subaltern, located in the
oppressed and exploited side of the colonial difference, towards a decolonial
liberation struggle for a world beyond eurocentered modernity. What border
thinking produces is a redefinition/subsumption of citizenship, democracy,
human rights, humanity, and economic relations beyond the narrow
definitions imposed by European modernity. Border thinking is not an anti-
modern fundamentalism. It is a decolonial transmodern response of the

subaltern to Eurocentric modernity. But border thinking is just one
expression of epistemic decolonization in this case following the Chicano
colonial experience inside the US Empire. There are other decolonial notions
such as diasporic thought, autonomous thought, thinking from the margins,
thinking from Pachamama, etc. articulated from other colonial experiences.
A good example of this is the Zapatista struggle in Mexico. The Zapatistas are
not anti-modern fundamentalist. They do not reject democracy and retreat
into some form of indigenous fundamentalism. On the contrary, the
Zapatistas accept the notion of democracy, but redefine it from a local
indigenous practice and cosmology, conceptualizing it as commanding
while obeying or we are all equals because we are all different. What
seems to be a paradoxical slogan is really a critical decolonial redefinition of
democracy from the practices, cosmologies and epistemologies of the
subaltern. This leads to the question of how to transcend the imperial
monologue established by the European-centric modernity
2NC Impacts
Racism and destruction of culture
Power, Eurocentrism, and Latin America pg 550 551 + 572)
historical process is, however, veryd ifferent. To start with, in the moment
that the Iberians conquered, named, and colonized America (whose northern
region, North America, would be colonized bythe British a centurylater), they
found a great number of different peoples, each with its own history,
language, discoveries and cultural products, memory and identity. The most
developed and sophisticated of them were the Aztecs, Mayas, Chimus,
Aymaras, Incas, Chibchas, and so on. Three hundred years later, all of them
had become merged into a single identity: Indians. This new identity was
racial, colonial, and negative. The same happened with the peoples forcefully
brought from Africa as slaves: Ashantis, Yorubas,~~~~~52 Nepantla Zulus,
Congos, Bacongos, and others. In the span of three hundred years, all of
them were Negroes or blacks. This resultant from the historyof colonial power
had, in terms of the colonial perception, two decisive implications. The first is
obvious: peoples were dispossessed of their own and singular historical
identities. The second is perhaps less obvious, but no less decisive: their new
racial identity, colonial and negative, involved the plundering of their place in
the history of the cultural production of humanity. From then on, there were
inferior races, capable onlyof producing inferior cultures . The new identity
also involved their relocation in the historical time constituted with America
first and with Europe later: from then on they were the past. In other words,
the model of power based on colonialit y also involved a cognitive model, a
new perspective of knowledge within which non-Europe was the past, and
because of that inferior, if not always primitive.
[21 pages]
All possible democratization of society in Latin America should occur in the
majority of these countries at the same time and in the same historical
movement as decolonization and as a radical redistribution of power. The
reason underlying these statements is that social classes in Latin America
are marked by color, any color that can be found in any country at anytime.
This means that the classification of people is realized not only in one sphere
of powerthe economy, for examplebut in each and every sphere.
Domination is the requisite for exploitation, and race is the most effective
instrument for domination that, associated with exploitation, serves as the
universal classifier in the current global model of power.
Their evidence is epistemologically bankrupt by

privileging Western schools of thought and leaving out
the voices of other peoples the root of all colonialism,
imperialism, and racism.
Grosfoguel 11 (Ramon, Associate Professor of Chicano/Latino Studies at
UC Berkeley, Post-Doctoral, Fernand Braudel Center/Maison des Sciences de
lHomme, Paris, France, 1993-4 PhD, Sociology, Temple University, 1992 MA,
Urban Studies, Temple Univerisity, 1986 BA, Sociology, University of Puerto
Rico, 1979, Decolonizing Pol Econ and Postcolonial,
http://www.dialogoglobal.com/granada/documents/Grosfoguel-DecolonizingPol-Econ-and-Postcolonial.pdf)
This is not an essentialist, fundamentalist, anti-European critique. It is a
perspective that is critical of both Eurocentric and Third World
fundamentalisms, colonialism and nationalism. Border thinking, one of the
epistemic perspectives to be discussed in this article, is precisely a critical
response to both hegemonic and marginal fundamentalisms. What all
fundamentalisms share (including the Eurocentric one) is the premise that
there is only one sole epistemic tradition from which to achieve
Truth and Universality. However, my main points here are three: 1) that a
decolonial epistemic perspective requires a broader canon of
thought than simply the Western canon (including the Left Western
canon); 2) that a truly universal decolonial perspective cannot be based on
an abstract universal (one particular that raises itself as universal global
design), but would have to be the result of the critical dialogue between
diverse critical epistemic/ethical/political projects towards a pluriversal as
oppose to a universal world; 3) that decolonization of knowledge would
require to take seriously the epistemic perspective/cosmologies/insights of
critical thinkers from the Global South thinking from and with subalternized
racial/ethnic/sexual spaces and bodies. Postmodernism and postructuralism
as epistemological projects are caught within the Western canon
reproducing within its domains of thought and practice a particular
form of coloniality of power/knowledge. However, what I have said about the
Latin American Subaltern Studies Group applies to the paradigms of political-economy. In this article, I
propose that an epistemic perspective from racial/ethnic subaltern locations has a lot to contribute to a
radical decolonial critical theory beyond the way traditional political-economy paradigms conceptualize
capitalism as a global or world-system. The idea here is to decolonize political-economy paradigms as
well as world-system analysis and to propose an alternative decolonial conceptualization of the worldsystem. The first part is an epistemic discussion about the implications of the epistemological critique
of feminist and subalternized racial/ethnic intellectuals to western epistemology. The second part is the
implications of these critiques to the way we conceptualize the global or world system. The third part, is
a discussion of global coloniality today. The fourth part is a critique to both world-system analysis and
postcolonial/cultural studies using coloniality of power as a response to the culture versus economy
dilemma. Finally, the fifth, sixth, seventh and last part, is a discussion of decolonial thinking,
transmodernity and socialization of power as decolonial alternatives to the present world-system.
Epistemological Critique The first point to discuss is the contribution of racial/ethnic and feminist
The hegemonic Eurocentric

paradigms that have informed western philosophy and sciences in the
modern/colonial capitalist/patriarchal world-system (Grosfoguel 2005;
2006b) for the last 500 hundred years assume a universalistic, neutral,
objective point of view. Chicana and black feminist scholars (Moraga and
Anzalda 1983; Collins 1990) as well as Third World scholars inside and
outside the United States (Dussel 1977) reminded us that we always speak
from a particular location in the power structures. Nobody escapes the class,
subaltern perspectives to epistemological questions.
sexual, gender, spiritual, linguistic, geographical, and racial hierarchies of

the modern/colonial capitalist/patriarchal world-system. As feminist
scholar Donna Haraway (1988) states, our knowledges are always situated.
Black feminist scholars called this perspective afro-centric epistemology
(Collins 1990) (which is not equivalent to the afrocentrist perspective) while
Latin American Philosopher of Liberation Enrique Dussel called it geopolitics
of knowledge (Dussel 1977) and, following Fanon (1967) and Anzalda
(1987), I will use the term bodypolitics of knowledge. This is not only a
question about social values in knowledge production or the fact that our
knowledge is always partial. The main point here is the locus of
enunciation, that is, the geo-political and body- political location of the
subject that speaks. In Western philosophy and sciences the subject that
speaks is always hidden, concealed, erased from the analysis . The egopolitics of knowledge of Western philosophy has always privilege the myth
of a non-situated Ego. Ethnic/racial/gender/sexual epistemic location and
the subject that speaks are always decoupled. By delinking
ethnic/racial/gender/sexual epistemic location from the subject that speaks,
Western philosophy and sciences are able to produce a myth about a
Truthful universal knowledge that covers up, that is, conceals who is
speaking as well as the geo-political and body-political epistemic location in
the structures of colonial power/knowledge from which the subject speaks It
is important here to distinguish the epistemic location from the social
location. The fact that one is socially located in the oppressed side of power
relations does not automatically mean that he/she is epistemically thinking
from a subaltern epistemic location. Precisely, the success of the
modern/colonial worldsystem consists in making subjects that are socially
located in the oppressed side of the colonial difference, to think
epistemically like the ones on the dominant positions. Subaltern epistemic
perspectives are knowledge coming from below that produces a critical
perspective of hegemonic knowledge in the power relations involved. I am
not claiming an epistemic populism where knowledge produced from below is automatically an
epistemic subaltern knowledge. What I am claiming is that all knowledges are epistemically located in
the dominant or the subaltern side of the power relations and that this is related to the geo- and bodypolitics of knowledge. The disembodied and unlocated neutrality and objectivity of the ego-politics of
knowledge is a Western myth. Ren Descartes, the founder of Modern Western Philosophy, inaugurates a
new moment in the history of Western thought. He replaces God, as the foundation of knowledge in the
Theo-politics of knowledge of the European Middle Ages, with (Western) Man as the foundation of
knowledge in European Modern times. All the attributes of God are now extrapolated to (Western) Man.
Universal Truth beyond time and space privileges access to the laws of the Universe, and the capacity to
produce scientific knowledge and theory is now placed in the mind of Western Man. The Cartesian
Cogito ergo sum (I think, therefore I am) is the foundation of modern Western sciences. By producing
a dualism between mind and body and between mind and nature, Descartes was able to claim nonsituated, universal, Godeyed view knowledge. This is what the Colombian philosopher Santiago
CastroGmez called the point zero perspective of Eurocentric philosophies (Castro-Gmez 2003). The
point zero is the point of view that hides and conceals itself as being beyond a particular point of view,
It is this god-eye
view that always hides its local and particular perspective under an
abstract universalism. Western philosophy privileges ego politics of
knowledge over the geopolitics of knowledge and the body-politics of
knowledge. Historically, this has allowed Western man (the gendered term is
intentionally used here) to represent his knowledge as the only one
capable of ~achieving a universal consciousness, and to dismiss nonWestern knowledge as particularistic and, thus, unable to achieve
universality. This epistemic strategy has been crucial for Western global
that is, the point of view that represents itself as being without a point of view.
designs. By hiding the location of the subject of enunciation,

European/Euro-American colonial expansion and domination was able to
construct a hierarchy of superior and inferior knowledge and, thus, of
superior and inferior people around the world. We went from the sixteenth
century characterization of people without writing to the eighteenth and nineteenth-century
characterization of people without history, to the twentieth-century characterization of people without
development and more recently, to the early twenty-first-century of people without democracy. We
went from the sixteenth-century rights of people (Seplveda versus de las Casas debate in the
University of Salamanca in the mid-sixteenth century), to the eighteenthcentury rights of man
(Enlightenment philosophers), and to the late twentiethcentury human rights. All of these are part of
global designs articulated to the simultaneous production and reproduction of an international division of
labor of core/periphery that overlaps with the global racial/ethnic hierarchy of Europeans/nonEuropeans.
AT: Perm
No perms
Power, Eurocentrism, and Latin America pg 552)
The heterogeneity that I am talking about is not simply structural, Based in
the relations between contemporaneous elements. Since diverse and
heterogeneous histories of this type were articulated in a single structure of
power, it is pertinent to acknowledge the historical-structural character of
this heterogeneity. Consequently, the process of change of capitalist totality
cannot, in any way, be a homogeneous and continuous transformation.
Yes perms
The heterogeneity that I am talking about is not simply structural, Based in
the relations between contemporaneous elements. Since diverse and
heterogeneous histories of this type were articulated in a single structure of
power, it is pertinent to acknowledge the historical-structural character of
this heterogeneity. Consequently, the process of change of capitalist totality
cannot, in any way, be a homogeneous and continuous transformation,
either of the entire system or of each one of its constituent parts.
Nor could that totality completely and homogeneously disappear from the
scene of history and be replaced by any equivalent. Historical change
cannot be linear, one-directional, sequential, or total. The system, or
the specific pattern of structural articulation, could be dismantled; however,
each one or some of its elements can and will have to be rearticulated in
some other structural model, as it happened with some components of the
precolonial model of power in, for instance, Tawantinsuyu.21
K First
K is a prerequisite to the case
The Eurocentric perspective of knowledge operates as a mirror that distorts
what it reflects, as we can see in the Latin American historical experience.
That is to say, what we Latin Americans find in that mirror is not
completelychimerical, since we possess so manyand such important
historically European traits in manymaterial and intersubjective aspects. But
at the same time we are profoundly different. Consequently, when we
look in our Eurocentric mirror, the image that we see is not just composite,
but also necessarilypartial and distorted. Here the tragedy is that we have all
been led, knowingly or not, wanting it or not, to see and accept that image
as our own and as belonging to us alone. In this way, we continue being what
we are not. And as a result we can never identify our true problems,
much less resolve them, except in a partial and distorted way.
AT: Utopian Alts Bad

Utopia alts are necessary
Ribeiro 11 (Gustavo Lins, Why (post)colonialism and (de)coloniality are
not enough: a postimperialist perspective, 10/7/11, pg 7)
If one of the aims of critical theory is to overcome an unjust past and
contribute to the construction of a different future, then utopias are a most
important object of desire in the progressive intellectual scene. While I am
favourable to ideological struggles*without them it wouldnt be possible to
denaturalize the naturalized present*I want to advocate for more utopian
struggles in a juncture where there is a dearth of future scenarios strong
enough to galvanize the imagination of a great number of political actors.
This is one of the reasons why I offered the notion of post-imperialism. Living
in a world region that has a longstanding experience with imperialism*in its
soft and hard expressions*the imagining of life after ~~~imperialism can
prove to be an exercise in creativity and audacity*qualities many times
denied to the subalterns
Politics Evidence
Popular w/Public
PTX link turn
Pepper 9 (Margot, Author of Through the Wall: A Year in Havana, a memoir
about working in Cuba during the Special Period. Her work has appeared in
the Utne Reader and Monthly Review and on Z-net, Counterpunch, and
elsewhere,
http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2009/0309pepper.html April
1)
Today, U.S. public opinion is turning against the embargo. A majority 52%
wants the embargo to be lifted, with 67% favoring an immediate end to the
travel restrictions, according to the Cuba Policy Foundation (CPF), a nonprofit
run by a former U.S. ambassador. Recent polls have even shown that a
majority of Miami Cubans now support lifting the embargo
Unpopular in Congress
Lifting embargo unpopular and highly unlikely in Congress
Cardenas 12- (Jose R.- previously advised on inter-American relations to
the U.S. Dept. of State, the National Security Council, previously Acting
Assistant Administrator for Latin America and the Carribean at the U.S.
Agency for International Development, Cuba Policy in a Second Obama
Term, November 13 2012, Foreign
Policy,http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/13/cuba_policy_in_a_sec
ond_obama_term)//
In the first place, the Cuban American bloc remains solid in Congress.
In the Senate, the formidable duo of Sens. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and
Marco Rubio (R-FL) has been augmented by Senator-Elect Ted Cruz (R-TX)
to keep the administration honest on policy. In the House, anyone who
believes newly elected Joe Garcia (D-FL) is going to carry the banner
of appeasement is sorely mistaken. He favors family contact, not
overturning the embargo. Secondly, critics have convinced themselves
that if it weren't for the Cuban American lobby, the U.S. would have
long ago reached an accommodation with the Castro dictatorship.
What they refuse to recognize is that the biggest impediment to any
fundamental change in the relationship is the absolute unwillingness
of the dictatorship to undertake significant reforms that would put
pressure on U.S. policymakers to reciprocate with policy changes. That
said, to contemplate any serious re-evaluation of relations on the
U.S. part as long as the regime systematically represses the Cuban people to say nothing of the continued unjust incarceration of U.S. development
worker Alan Gross -- and relentlessly continues to thwart U.S. interests in
international fora is just self-delusion.
Relation normalization causes influx of immigrants to UScauses political uproar.

Suchlicki 12 (Jaime- previously director of the U of Miamis Research
Institute for Cuban Studies, Latin American Editor for Transaction Publishers,
May 11 2012, Getting Ready for Life after Castro, Foreign Policy,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/11/getting_ready_for_life_after_
castro?page=0,2)//
Under the normalization of U.S.-Cuban relations, Cubans will be free
to visit the United States. Many will come as tourists and stay as
illegal immigrants; others will be claimed as legal immigrants by
relatives who are already naturalized citizens. A significant out-migration
is certain, posing an added major problem for U.S. policymakers at a
time of increasing anti-immigration sentiment. While many Cubans
want to leave Cuba, few Cuban-Americans will be inclined to abandon
their lives in the United States and return to the island, especially if
Cuba experiences a slow and painful transition period. Although those
exiles who are allowed to return will be welcomed initially as business
partners and investors, they are also likely to be resented, especially if they
become involved in domestic politics. Readjusting the views and values of the
exile population to those of the island will be a difficult and lengthy process.
(The Role of the Cuban-American Community in the Cuban Transition, Sergio
Diaz Briquets and Jorge Perez-Lopez).
Obama should push congress to repeal the Helms-Burton

act, but the repeal has little current support.
Goodman 2-20- (Joshua- assistant professor of Public Policy at Harvard
with focus on public economics , Obama Can Bend Cuba Embargo to Help
Open Economy, Group Says, Bloomberg, February 20 th 2013,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-20/obama-should-bend-cubaembargo-to-buoy-free-markets-reports-say.html)//
The Washington-based Cuba Study Group urges Obama to gain even
more leverage by getting Congress to repeal the so-called HelmsBurton act of 1996 and other legislation that conditions the easing
of sanctions on regime change. Any move to ease the five-decadeold embargo would probably encounter anti-Castro resistance in
Florida, one of the biggest prizes in recent presidential elections,
and opposition from key lawmakers including Senator Robert
Menendez, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee. A bill introduced by Representative Jose Serrano, a New
York Democrat, in the 112th Congress to dismantle the web of legislation
governing relations with Cuba since as early as the 1960s received no
co-sponsors. Another obstacle to an improvement in relations is the
fate of U.S. contractor Alan Gross, who remains jailed in a Havana
prison three years after he was arrested on charges of spying for carrying
telecommunications equipment to the island. A delegation of U.S. lawmakers
led by Senator Patrick Leahy, a Democrat from Vermont, is in Cuba this week
and is expected to meet with Gross and seek his immediate release.
Working Disads
Agriculture Disad
UQ
Raul Stabilizes Island, No Risk of Collapse
Anya Landau French 13, Director of the New America Foundation U.S.
Cuba Policy Initiative, 3/6/13, Can Cuba Survive the Loss of Chavez?,
http://thehavananote.com/2013/03/can_cuba_survive_loss_chavez
Not unsurprisingly, many in and out of Cuba now wonder if the loss of Chavez
is the death knell of the Castros Revolution, or, perhaps could it inject urgent
momentum into Raul Castros reform agenda, just in the nick of time? In
some ways, the loss of Hugo Chavez, on its face so devastating for Cuba,
might actually be a good thing for the island. With Nicolas Maduro a favorite
to win the special presidential election a month from now, Cuba will likely
retain significant influence. But Maduro is no Chavez. Hell have to focus on
building up his own political capital, without the benefit of Chavezs charisma.
While he surely wont cut Cuba off, to maintain power he will almost certainly
need to respond to increasing economic pressures at home with more
pragmatic and domestically focused economic policies. And that likelihood, as
well as the possibility that the Venezuelan opposition could win back power
either now or in the medium term, should drive Cuban leaders to speed up
and bravely deepen their tenuous economic reforms on the island. And if
there was any hesitancy among Cuba's leaders to open more space between
the island and Chavez, they now have the opportunity to do so. Under Raul
Castro, Cuba has mended and expanded foreign relations the world
over. Particularly if it shows greater pragmatism in its economic
policies, countries such as China will no doubt increase economic
engagement of the island. Raul Castro, who has at most five years this
second and final term as president - to save the fruits of the Cuban
Revolution and chart a more sustainable course for the island, now has more
incentive than ever to take the bull by the horns. Time will tell, perhaps
sooner rather than later, whether he can.
Link: Lifting Embargo Destroys Agriculture in Cuba

Carmen G. Gonzalez, Assistant Professor, Seattle University School of
Law, Summer 2003, SEASONS OF RESISTANCE: SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
AND FOOD SECURITY IN CUBA, p. 729-33
Notwithstanding these problems, the greatest challenge to the
agricultural development strategy adopted by the Cuban
government in the aftermath of the Special Period is likely to be
external the renewal of trade relations with the United States. From
the colonial era through the beginning of the Special Period, economic
development in Cuba has been constrained by Cubas relationship with a
series of primary trading partners. Cubas export-oriented sugar monoculture
and its reliance on imports to satisfy domestic food needs was imposed by
the Spanish colonizers, reinforced by the United States, and maintained
during the Soviet era. It was not until the collapse of the socialist
trading bloc and the strengthening of the U.S. embargo that Cuba
was able to embark upon a radically different development path. Cuba was
able to transform its agricultural development model as a
consequence of the political and economic autonomy occasioned by
its relative economic isolation, including its exclusion from major
international financial and trade institutions. Paradoxically, while the U.S.
embargo subjected Cuba to immense economic hardship, it also gave
the Cuban government free rein to adopt agricultural policies that
ran counter to the prevailing neoliberal model and that protected
Cuban farmers against ruinous competition from highly subsidized
agricultural producers in the United States and the European Union. Due
to U.S. pressure, Cuba was excluded from regional and international financial
institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and
the Inter-American Development Bank.n413 Cuba also failed to reach full
membership in any regional trade association and was barred from the
negotiations for the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). However, as U.S.
agribusiness clamors to ease trade restrictions with Cuba, the lifting of the
embargo and the end of Cubas economic isolation may only be a matter of
time. It is unclear how the Cuban government will respond to the immense
political and economic pressure from the United States to enter into bilateral
or multilateral trade agreements that would curtail Cuban sovereignty and
erode protection for Cuban agriculture.n416 If Cuba accedes to the
dictates of agricultural trade liberalization, it appears likely that Cubas
gains in agricultural diversification and food self-sufficiency will be
undercut by cheap, subsidized food imports from the United States and
other industrialized countries. Furthermore, Cubas experiment with
organic and semi-organic agriculture may be jeopardized if the Cuban
government is either unwilling or unable to restrict the sale of
agrochemicals to Cuban farmers as the Cuban government failed to
restrict U.S. rice imports in the first half of the twentieth century.
Cuba is once again at a crossroads as it was in 1963, when the government
abandoned economic diversification, renewed its emphasis on sugar
production, and replaced its trade dependence on the United States with
trade dependence on the socialist bloc. In the end, the future of Cuban
agriculture will likely turn on a combination of external factors (such as world
market prices for Cuban exports and Cubas future economic integration with
the United States) and internal factors (such as the level of grassroots and
governmental support for the alternative development model developed
during the Special Period). While this Article has examined the major pieces
of legislation that transformed agricultural production in Cuba, and the
governments implementation of these laws, it is important to remember that
these reforms had their genesis in the economic crisis of the early 1990s and
in the creative legal, and extra-legal, survival strategies developed by
ordinary Cubans. The distribution of land to thousands of small producers
and the promotion of urban agriculture were in response to the self-help
measures undertaken by Cuban citizens during the Special Period. As the
economic crisis intensified, Cuban citizens spontaneously seized and
cultivated parcels of land in state farms, along the highways, and in vacant
lots, and started growing food in patios, balconies, front yards, and
community gardens. Similarly, the opening of the agricultural markets was in
direct response to the booming black market and its deleterious effect on the
states food distribution system. Finally, it was the small private farmer, the
neglected stepchild of the Revolution, who kept alive the traditional
agroecological techniques that formed the basis of Cubas experiment with
organic agriculture. The survival of Cubas alternative agricultural model will
therefore depend, at least in part, on whether this model is viewed by Cuban
citizens and by the Cuban leadership as a necessary adaptation to severe
economic crisis or as a path-breaking achievement worthy of pride and
emulation. The history of Cuban agriculture has been one of resistance and
accommodation to larger economic and political forces that shaped the
destiny of the island nation. Likewise, the transformation of Cuban agriculture
has occurred through resistance and accommodation by Cuban workers and
farmers to the hardships of the Special Period. The lifting of the U.S.
economic embargo and the subjection of Cuba to the full force of
economic globalization will present an enormous challenge to the
retention of an agricultural development model borne of crisis and
isolation.
Agriculture Uniquely Key To Cuba

Fas 8 (Office of Global Analysis, Cubas Food & Agriculture
Situation Report, March 2008,
http://www.fas.usda.gov/itp/cuba/cubasituation0308.pdf)
Cubas population was about half rural and half urban in the 1950s. During
the past four decades, the rural population has declined about 0.6 percent
annually while the urban population has grown about 2.0 percent annually.
Currently, the rural-urban population ratio is about onefourth rural and threefourths urban [fig. 13]. About 87 percent of Cubas rural population was
engaged in agriculture in 1960; in 2000, that share had fallen to
about 66 percent [fig. 14].
Impact
Scenario 1: Cuban instability causes Caribbean instability
refugee flows

AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cubas problems of a
post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the
island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority.
And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will
attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of
order will create the conditions for instability and civil war . Whether
Raul or another successor from within the current government can hold power is
debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current
policies for an indefinite period, which will only compound the Cuban situation.
When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility if the U.S.
maintains the wait and see approach. The U.S. then must deal with an unstable
country 90 miles off its coast. In the midst of this chaos, thousands will flee the
island.
During the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals;
this time the
number could be several hundred thousand flee ing to the U.S.,

creating a refugee crisis
Scenario 2: Carrib Instability


AD=ADA433074)
In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical
fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these
groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or
throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism

gets more complicated . Such activity could increase direct attacks
and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile
democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a
failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military
forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency . The
ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment
throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems. U.S.
domestic political support is also turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S.
totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in
determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be flawed, because
recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear
softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily
subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations.
(Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what
The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state

90 miles off its coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs, does
not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional
American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military
leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings were
happens then?
sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and
economic resources. There is justifiable concern that
Africa and the Caucasus region are
potential hot spots for terrorist activity, so these areas should be secure. North
Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also
cannot ignore China . What if China resorts to aggression to resolve
the Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could
conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are
known and potential situations that could easily require all or many
of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can
the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban
situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40 years remain in effect with
vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro
Cuba?
Caribbean terrorism leads to attack on the US---theyll use

bioweapons
Bryan 1 (Anthony T. Bryan, director of the North-South Centers Caribbean
Program, 10-21-2001. CFR, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland

Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, p.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and
%20_homeland_%20security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no
exception. Already the linkages between drug trafficking and terrorism are
clear in countries like Colombia and Peru, and such connections have similar
potential in the Caribbean. The security of major industrial complexes in
some Caribbean countries is vital. Petroleum refineries and major
industrial estates in Trinidad, which host more than 100 companies that
produce the majority of the worlds methanol, ammonium sulphate, and 40
percent of U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), are vulnerable
targets. Unfortunately, as experience has shown in Africa, the Middle East,
and Latin America, terrorists are likely to strike at U.S. and European
interests in Caribbean countries. Security issues become even more
critical when one considers the possible use of Caribbean countries
by terrorists as bases from which to attack the United States . An
airliner hijacked after departure from an airport in the northern Caribbean or
the Bahamas can be flying over South Florida in less than an hour. Terrorists
can sabotage or seize control of a cruise ship after the vessel leaves
a Caribbean port. Moreover, terrorists with false passports and visas issued
in the Caribbean may be able to move easily through passport controls in
Canada or the United States. (To help counter this possibility, some countries
have suspended "economic citizenship" programs to ensure that known

terrorists have not been inadvertently granted such citizenship.) Again,
Caribbean countries are as vulnerable as anywhere else to the
clandestine manufacture and deployment of bio logical weapons
within national borders.
Bioterror leads to extinction

Anders Sandberg 8, is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of
Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in

Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University
of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. irkovi, senior research associate at
the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics
at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro, 9/8/8, How can we
reduce the risk of human extinction?, Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists,http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-wereduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those
from natural ones. Although great progress has been made in reducing the
number of nuclear weapons in the world, humanity is still threatened
by the possibility of a global thermonuclear war and a resulting nuclear
winter. We may face even greater risks from emerging
technologies . Advances in synthetic biology might make it possible
to engineer pathogens capable of extinction-level pandemics . The
knowledge, equipment, and materials needed to engineer pathogens are
more accessible than those needed to build nuclear weapons. And unlike
other weapons, pathogens are self-replicating, allowing a
small arsenal to become exponentially destructive. Pathogens have
been implicated in the extinctions of many wild species. Although most
pandemics "fade out" by reducing the density of susceptible populations,
pathogens with wide host ranges in multiple species can reach even isolated
individuals. The intentional or unintentional release
of engineered pathogens with high transmissibility, latency, and
lethality might be capable of causing human extinction . While such an
event seems unlikely today, the likelihood may increase as biotechnologies
continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.
Sugar Disad
Uniqueness
Sugar Central to Brazilian Economy
Valdez 11 (Constanza, Agricultural Economist, Brazils Ethanol Industry:
Looking Forward, June 2011,
http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/126865/bio02.pdf)
The sugarcane sector is a major component of the Brazilian
economy. With a value added of around $33 billion annually, the output from
the sugarcane and sugarcane products chain makes up about 2.3
percent of Brazils Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 15 percent of
value added in Brazilian agriculture (IBGE, 2010b). In 2008, the sector
generated 4.4 million jobs1 million directly and 3.4 million indirectly
(CAGED, 2009)
Internal Link: Lifted Embargo Causes Sugar

Destabilization
Suchliki 2000 (Julia, Professor of History and International Studies,
http://scholarlyrepository.miami.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=1005&context=iccaspapers)
Given Cubas scant foreign exchange, its ability to buy U.S. products remains
very limited. Cubas major exports, i.e. sugar, tobacco, nickel, citrus, are
neither economically nor strategically important to the United States. Lifting
the embargo would create severe market distortions in the already
precarious economies of the Caribbean and Central America since
the U.S. would have to divert some portion of the existing sugar
quota away from these countries to accommodate Cuba. The impact of
tourism diversion toward Cuba would profoundly hurt the economies of the
Caribbean and Central American countries.
Solvency
Cuba Sugar Production Huge
Woods 98 (Chuck, Writer University of Florida, UF And Cuban Agricultural
Economists Discuss Impact of Lifting Cuban Trade Embargo At March 31
Washington, DC Conference, March 24, 1998,
http://news.ufl.edu/1998/03/24/cuba1/)
If Cuba comes back online, sugar is clearly an issue of real
importance, he said. Cubas sugar export quota before the 1960 embargo was about
twice the size of the entire U.S. sugar import quota now , so there has been a huge shift
in the structure of the U.S. sweetener industry. Obviously, there would be
some tough foreign policy issues to deal with here.
Peters 03 (Peters, Researcher Lexington Institute, Cutting Losses, Dec.
2003,
http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Cuba/Research
Products/cutting-losses.pdf)
The U.S. sugar market is highly controlled and distorted by government
intervention. The domestic price is artificially maintained, currently at a level
more than three times the world price, and quotas determine how much the
United States imports from individual countries. Before Cubas revolution,
United States purchased the lions share of Cubas sugar crop. In 1959, the
U.S. sugar quota for Cuba was 2.9 million tons. If the United States were
to restore only one fourth of Cubas 1959 quota, it would displace all
U.S. sugar imports from Latin America and the Caribbean. The 2004
U.S. sugar quota for the entire world is 1.12 million tons.
Flooding of Market could Destabilize Real

Economic Research Center 10 (Part of US Dept of Agriculture, World
Sugar Price Volatility Intensified by Market and Policy Factors, Nov. 2010,
http://www.thebioenergysite.com/articles/775/world-sugar-price-volatilityintensified-by-market-and-policy-factors)
Brazil, particularly the center-south region of the country, has a low cost of
production, usually ranking first or second globally, with production costs of
$265 per ton, compared with a world average of $353 per ton in 2008,
according to LMC International. Brazil also has the worlds largest land base
committed to sugarcane, which contributed to its rapid growth as the dominant
exporter. Over the past 20 years, Brazil more than doubled cane production area, from
nearly 3.6 million hectares to almost 7.5 million hectares, and continues to increase area each
year.
Sugarcane area among other leading exporters has remained relatively

stableAustralia with 350,000-450,000 hectares and Thailand with 900,0001.2 million hectares over the past 10 years.
Because Brazil is such a significant world supplier, both raw and refined world
sugar prices are closely correlated with Brazilian production costs. A key
factor affecting these costs is the exchange rate between the US dollar and
the Brazilian currency, the real, because sugar is traded in US dollars in
international markets. When the US dollar is strong against the Brazilian real,
Brazilian sugarcane producers costs are relatively lower, which makes
exports more competitive. For instance, if Brazilian production costs remain
constant in local currency terms and if the value of the US dollar doubled,
Brazilian production costs would fall by half when measured in US dollars.
The real lost 50-70 per cent of its value against major currencies between 1997 and 2003,
which coincided with especially strong growth of Brazilian sugar exports and a decline in
global sugar prices. However, the real began rebounding in 2003 and steadily strengthened
through 2009. The reals appreciation was modest enough to allow exports to continue
increasing, but there was also a close correlation between the appreciating real and the
The real has

continued to strengthen through the first half of 2010, indicating that sugar
prices could continue to remain elevated if the underlying relationship
between exchange rates and world prices continues to hold.
increase in sugar prices after 2003 leading up to the 2009 price spike.
Impact
Destabilized Brazilian Leads to upheaval
Petras 11 (Former Professor of Sociology at BYU, Latin America: Growth,
Stability and Inequalities: Lessons for the US and EU, Oct. 2, 2011,
http://www.globalresearch.ca/latin-america-growth-stability-and-inequalitieslessons-for-the-us-and-eu/26887)
The Latin American countries during the 1980s experienced a deep
and persistent crises, manifested in negative growth, increased
poverty levels and heavy indebtedness, which allowed creditors (like
the IMF) to impose harsh and regressive austerity measures and
structural adjustment policies which came to be known as neoliberalization. These included the privatization of most strategic, lucrative
public enterprises, and the ending of any semblance of state directed
industrial strategies. For the peasants and the working and middle class the
short-lived neo-liberal boom of the 1990s was a continuation of the lost
decade of the 1980s. The neo-liberal policies of the 1990s were based on
fundamentally flawed structural foundations and polarizing income and public
expenditures involving huge transfers of income to capital and downward
pressures on wages and welfare. The neo-liberal regimes went into a
deep crisis early in 2000 provoking major popular upheavals . The
outcome resulted in a new set of political configurations and social power
equations, which evolved into new post-neoliberal regimes, at least in most of
the major countries in Latin America.
Democratic backsliding in Latin America causes regional

proliferation and nuclear conflict
Schulz 2k (Donald Schulz, Chairman of the Political Science Department at
Cleveland State University, March 2000, The United States and Latin America:
Shaping an Elusive Future,
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub31.pdf)
A second major interest is the promotion of democracy. At first glance,
this might appear to be a peripheral concern. For much of its history, the
United States was perfectly comfortable with authoritarian regimes in Latin
America, so long as they did not threaten higher priority interests like
regional security or U.S. economic holdings. But that is no longer the case.
U.S. values have changed; democracy has been elevated to the status of an
"important" interest. In part, this has been because American leaders have
gained a greater appreciation of the role of legitimacy as a source of
political stability. Governments that are popularly elected and
respect human rights and the rule of law are less dangerous to both
their citizens and their neighbors. Nations which are substantively
democratic tend not to go to war with one another. They are also
less vulnerable to the threat of internal war provoked, in part, by
government violence and illegality.(5) In short, democracy and
economic integration are not simply value preferences, but are
increasingly bound up with hemispheric security. To take just one

example: The restoration of democracy in Brazil and Argentina and
their increasingly strong and profitable relationship in Mercosur
have contributed in no small degree to their decisions to foresake
the development of nuclear weapons. Perceptions of threat have
declined, and perceptions of the benefits of cooperation have grown,
and this has permitted progress on a range of security issues from
border disputes, to peacekeeping, environmental protection,
counternarcotics, and the combat of organized crime. CONTINUES Until
recently, the primary U.S. concern about Brazil has been that it might acquire
nuclear weapons and delivery systems. In the 1970s, the Brazilian military
embarked on a secret program to develop an atom bomb. By the late 1980s,
both Brazil and Argentina were aggressively pursuing nuclear development
programs that had clear military spin-offs.54 There were powerful military
and civilian advocates of developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles
within both countries. Today, however, the situation has changed. As a
result of political leadership transitions in both countries, Brazil and
Argentina now appear firmly committed to restricting their nuclear
programs to peaceful purposes. They have entered into various nuclearrelated agreements with each othermost notably the quadripartite
comprehensive safeguards agreement (1991), which permits the inspection
of all their nuclear installations by the International Atomic Energy Agency
and have joined the Missile Technology Control Regime. Even so, no one
can be certain about the future. As Scott Tollefson has observed: . . the
military application of Brazils nuclear and space programs depends
less on technological considerations than on political will. While
technological constraints present a formidable barrier to achieving nuclear
bombs and ballistic missiles, that barrier is not insurmountable. The critical
element, therefore, in determining the applications of Brazils nuclear and
space technologies will be primarily political.55 Put simply, if changes in
political leadership were instrumental in redirecting Brazils nuclear
program towards peaceful purposes, future political upheavals could
still produce a reversion to previous orientations. Civilian supremacy
is not so strong that it could not be swept away by a coup, especially
if the legitimacy of the current democratic experiment were to be
undermined by economic crisis and growing poverty/inequality. Nor are
civilian leaders necessarily less militaristic or more committed to democracy
than the military. The example of Perus Fujimori comes immediately to mind.
How serious a threat might Brazil potentially be? It has been estimated that if
the nuclear plant at Angra dos Reis (Angra I) were only producing at 30
percent capacity, it could produce five 20-kiloton weapons a year. If
production from other plants were included, Brazil would have a capability
three times greater than India or Pakistan. Furthermore, its defense
industry already has a substantial missile producing capability. On the other
hand, the country has a very limited capacity to project its military power via
air and sealift or to sustain its forces over long distances. And though a 1983
law authorizes significant military manpower increases (which could place
Brazil at a numerical level slightly higher than France, Iran and Pakistan),
such growth will be restricted by a lack of economic resources. Indeed, the
development of all these military potentials has been, and will continue to be,
severely constrained by a lack of money. (Which is one reason Brazil decided

to engage in arms control with Argentina in the first p1ace.) In short, a
restoration of Brazilian militarism, imbued with nationalistic ambitions for
great power status, is not unthinkable, and such a regime could present some
fairly serious problems. That government would probably need foreign as
well as domestic enemies to help justify its existence. One obvious
candidate would be the United States, which would presumably be critical
of any return to dictatorial rule. Beyond this, moreover, the spectre of a
predatory international community, covetous of the riches of the Amazon,
could help rally political support to the regime. For years, some Brazilian
military officers have been warning of foreign intervention. Indeed, as far
back as 1991 General Antenor de Santa Cruz Abreu, then chief of the
Military Command of the Amazon, threatened to transform the region
into a new Vietnam if developed countries tried to
internationalize the Amazon. Subsequently, in 1993, U.S.-Guyanese
combined military exercises near the Brazilian border provoked an angry
response from many high-ranking Brazilian officers.57 Since then, of course,
U.S.-Brazilian relations have improved considerably. Nevertheless, the basic
U.S./ international concerns over the Amaazonthe threat to the regions
ecology through burning and deforestation, the presence of narcotrafficking
activities, the Indian question, etc.have not disappeared, and some may
very well intensify in the years ahead. At the same time, if the growing trend
towards subregional economic groupingsin particular, MERCOSUR
continues, it is likely to increase competition between Southern Cone and
NAFTA countries. Economic conflicts, in turn, may be expected to intensify
political differences, and could lead to heightened politico-military
rivalry between different blocs or coalitions in the hemisphere.
Key to stop global prolif

Beamont and Rubinsky 12 (Paul D. Beamont and Thomas Rubinsky,
International Law and Policy Institute, An Introduction to the Issue of Nuclear

Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean, December,
http://nwp.ilpi.org/?p=1851)
As the world continues to grapple with the issues of nonproliferation and disarmament, the experience of Latin America and
the Caribbean in creating the Tlatelolco regime remains important.
One should be careful not to generalise to much from the experience of one
disarmament regime in a region almost unique in its absence of serious
armed conflict[128] Nonetheless, the Tlatelolco experience does provide
some lessons that that advocates of nuclear disarmament would be wise to
heed. The Latin American NWFZ demonstrates quite clearly the wisdom in
creating a treaty with the long game in mind. The flexible entry-into forcerequirements allowed the Treaty to gain vital impetus at its inception while it
also kept the more reluctant countries tied to the treatys principles. Together
with its flexible amendment procedure, this allowed it to pick up momentum
when favourable changes in geopolitics and domestic conditions permitted it.
Using this formula the Treaty of Tlatelolco created the first nuclearweapon-free zone in the inhabited world, and has successfully
expanded to include every state in the region. With the successful
product of ingenuity, dedication and above all patience, Latin Americas

NWFZ has consolidated the regions reputation for peaceful cooperation. The Treatys permanent secretariat, OPANAL, is active in both
building regional consensus and in enhancing the regions presence in
international organizations. While it remains to be seen how future
disarmament efforts will unfold, Latin American states are well
positioned to play a significant role in the continuing efforts aimed
at reaching the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons.
New prolif ensures widespread nuclear conflict --asymmetries

Lyon 9 Program Director, Strategy and International, with Australian
Strategic Policy Institute, previously a Senior Lecturer in International
Relations at the University of Queensland, A delicate issue, Asias nuclear
future, December, online
Deterrence relationships in Asia wont look like EastWest deterrence. They wont be relationships of
mutual assured destruction (MAD), and there will be many asymmetries among
them. Regional nuclear-weapon states will articulate a spectrum of strategies ranging from
existential deterrence to minimum deterrence to assured retaliation; and sometimes doctrinal statements will
outrun capabilities. The smaller arsenals of Asia and the absence of severe confrontations will help to keep doctrines at the
level of generalised deterrence. Extended nuclear deterrence will continue to be important to US allies in East Asia, although it is hard
to imagine other Asian nuclear weapon states extending deterrence to their clients or allies. Alagappas propositions contain a picture
of what a more proliferated Asia might look like. It could well remain a region where deterrence dominates, and where arsenals are
typically constrained: an Asia, in fact, that falls some way short of a nuclear chaos model of unrestrained proliferation and
mushrooming nuclear dangers. An order in flux? Notwithstanding Alagappas more reassuring view, we shouldnt
understate the extent of the looming change from a nuclear relationship based on bipolar symmetry to a
set of relationships based on multiplayer asymmetries . As one observer has noted, when you add to that change the
relatively constrained size of nuclear arsenals in Asia, the likelihood of further nuclear reductions by the US and Russia, and ballistic
missile defences of uncertain effectiveness, the world is about to enter uncharted territory (Ford 2009:125). Some
factors
certainly act as stabilising influences on the current nuclear order, not least that nuclear weapons (here as
elsewhere) typically induce caution, that the regional great powers tend to get along reasonably well with each other and that the region
But other
factors imply a period of looming change: geopolitical dynamism is rearranging
strategic relationships; the number of risk-tolerant adversaries seems
enters its era of nuclear pre-eminence inheriting a strong set of robust norms and regimes from the earlier nuclear era.
to be increasing ; most nuclear weapons states are modernising their arsenals; the American arsenal is ageing; and
the USs position of primacy is increasingly contested in Asia. Indeed, it may be that dynamism which could most seriously undermine
the Solingen model of East Asian nonproliferation. Solingen, after all, has not attempted to produce a general theory about
proliferation; she has attempted to explain only proliferation in the post-NPT age (see Solingen 2007:3), when the P-5 of the UN
Security Council already had nuclear weapons. In essence, though, its exactly that broader geopolitical order that might be shifting. It
isnt yet clear how the Asian nuclear order will evolve. Its one of those uncertainties that define Australias shifting strategic
environment. Its not too hard to imagine an order thats more competitive than the one we see now. The managed system of
deterrence The second approach to thinking about the Asian nuclear order is to attempt to superimpose upon it William Walkers two
key mechanisms of the first nuclear age: the managed system of deterrence and the managed system of abstinence. What might those
systems look like in Asia? In Walkers model, the managed system of deterrence included: the deployment of military hardware
under increasingly sophisticated command and control; the development of strategic doctrines to ensure mutual vulnerability and
restraint; and the establishment of arms control processes through which policy elites engaged in dialogue and negotiated binding
agreements. (Walker 2007:436) It
isnt obvious that those core aspects of the managed system are
all central features of Asian nuclear relationships . Perhaps most importantly, it isnt obvious that the world
even has a good model for how deterrence works in asymmetric relationships. Within the US, theres been something of a revival of
interest in matters nuclear as strategic analysts attempt to reconceptualise how nuclear relationships might work in the future. Recent
work on the problems of exercising deterrence across asymmetrical strategic contests, for example, suggests a number of problems:
In
asymmetric conflict situations, deterrence may not only be unable to
prevent violence but may also help foment it
(Adler 2009:103). Some of the
problems arise precisely because weaker players seem increasingly likely to test
stronger players threatsas part of a pattern of conflict that has emerged over
recent centuries, in which weaker players have often prevailed against stronger
opponents.3 If we were to look at the case study of the IndiaPakistan nuclear relationshipwhich is grounded in an enduring
strategic rivalry, and therefore not typical of the broader nuclear relationships in Asiaits a moot point whether Pakistani behaviour
has been much altered by the deterrence policies of India. Indeed, the case seems to show that Pakistan doesnt even accept a longterm condition of strategic asymmetry with India, and that it intends to use its nuclear weapons as an equaliser against Indias larger
conventional forces by building a nuclear arsenal larger than the Indian arsenal arrayed against it. That would imply, more broadly,
that increasing
strategic rivalries across Asia could be accompanied by efforts to
minimise asymmetrical disadvantages between a much wider range of

players. In short, in a more competitive Asian strategic environment, nuclear
asymmetries that are tolerable now might well become less tolerable.
Furthermore, we need to think about how we might codify deterrence in Asia. In the Cold War days, the MAD doctrine
tended to be reflected in arms control accords that limited wasteful spending and corralled the competition. As Walker
acknowledges, the agreements were important stabilisers of the broader nuclear relationship, but to
what extent can they be replicated in conditions of asymmetry? It might be possible to codify crisis management procedures, but
designing (and verifying) limitations
on weapons numbers would seem to be much more

difficult when the arsenals are of uneven size, and when the weaker party (perhaps
probably be relying on secrecy about the numbers and locations
of weapons to minimise the vulnerability of their arsenals.
both parties) would
Nuclear war
Cimbala 10 - Prof. of Political Science @ Penn State, (Stephen, Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century,
p. 117-8)
A five-sided nuclear competition in the Pacific would be linked, in geopolitical

deterrence and proliferation space, to the existing nuclear deterrents in India
and Pakistan, and to the emerging nuclear weapons status of Iran. An arc of
nuclear instability from Tehran to Tokyo could place U.S. prolif eration
strategies into the ash heap of history and call for more drastic military
options, not excluding preemptive war, defenses, and counter-deterrent special operations. In addition, an eight-sided
nuclear arms race in Asia would increase the likelihood of accidental or
inadvertent nuclear war . It would do so because: (1) some of these states already
have histories of protracted conflict; (2) states may have politically
unreliable or immature command and control systems, especially
during a crisis involving a decision for nuclear first strike or retaliation; unreliable or immature systems
might permit a technical malfunction that caused an unintended launch, or a
deliberate but unauthorized launch by rogue commanders; (3) faulty
intelligence and warning systems might cause one side to misinterpret the
others defensive moves to forestall attack as offensive preparations for
attack, thus triggering a mistaken preemption.
Scenario 2 is Philippines
Oversupply cuts of Philippines Precedent Proves
GMA 13 (GMA News Network, PHL to lower sugar export to US as
commodity from Mexico weighs, SRA reports, June 14,

2013,http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/312883/economy/agriculturean
dmining/phl-to-lower-sugar-export-to-us-as-commodity-from-mexico-weighssra-reports)
An oversupply of sugar in the United States may compel the

Philippines to reduce the volume of exports to the US during the
current crop year ending in September, the Sugar Regulatory
Administration (SRA) said Friday.
The abundance of raw sugar from Mexico, which falls under zero-tariff
and zero-quota arrangements with Washington, is the main reason for the
oversupply in the US, SRA board member Cocoy Barrera said in an
interview with reporters.
Sugar Integral to Philippine Economy, Loss Causes

Environment Damage
Lee 01 (Richard, Professor American University School of International
Studies, Philippine Sugar and Environment,
http://www1.american.edu/ted/PHILSUG.HTM)
Since 1844, sugar has been the Philippines' leading export crop.
Most of its sugar production has been exported to the United States.
However, due to the U.S. quota reduction in late 1980',the
Philippines has had to sell its sugar to the world market at a price
below the production costs. The low price of sugar was due to the
ineffective world pricing controlling mechanism of the International Sugar
Agreements (ISA). Meanwhile, the owners of sugar plantations decided
to leave unharvested a large area of their sugar cane field. Thus,
landless cane workers were forced to migrate to the uplands. This,
coupled with already situated sugar cane field converted by forests,
added another cause of deforestation and soil erosion. With human
settlement expanding, forests have been cleared to grow crops,
wetlands have been drained, and grasslands have been irrigated.
The net effect has exacted a heavy environmental toll in the
Philippines.

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*FINISHED ARGUMENTS*

Lifting the embargo would double tourism in one year,

Tourist development in Cuba produces coastal erosion,

Water runoff and sediment from tourism will cause mass

Volume 52, Number 6, November/December 2010, EBSCO)//

trigger mass mortalities of fish, along with reductions in sea-grass

Loss of coral collapses the ocean ecosystem, causing

news, Coral Reef Extinction Could Have Catastrophic Effect, March 26 th

Lifting the embargo will send 1 million more Americans to

restrictions for Cuban Americans has led to an estimated 20

Lifting the embargo will create a 3 million person surge to

Internal link extensions

Tourism causes bad things

University Tourism: Good or Bad?, Bachelors thesis, Degree Programme in

The Cuban government neglects environmental protection

Over the past forty years, Cubas environment has deteriorated

Cubas government turns a blind eye to the expansion of

Tourism causes ozone depletion, air pollution, and

University Tourism: Good or Bad?, Bachelors thesis, Degree Programme in

Tourism causes difficult-to-manage sewage increases, and

pressure makes it difficult to define the optimum capacity of sewage

Tourism causes a strain on natural resources like fuel and

Tourism can cause over-hunting and fishing, loss of animal

other unforeseeable consequences in long term. The disappearance

Those bad thinks kill reefs

Volume 52, Number 6, November/December 2010, EBSCO)//

Local runoff, pollution, and sediment from nearby areas

destructive fishing and over-fishing the oceans and global climate

Turns Case- Kills tourism

Tourism and overdevelopment severely threaten coral

Ecosystems Partnership Fund, 2012,

Biodiversity loss caused by humans will bring our demise.

Human activity is causing the extinction of animal, plant and

A2: Warming/Alt Causes

A2: Environmental reform laws

Lack of public disclosure and enforcement mechanism

University of Guelph with focus in sustaining rural communities and local

Despite reform in law, concrete projects fail to promote

Disagreement, poor planning, and cost-cutting measures

Socialism Make a Difference?, Journal of Social Sustainable Tourism, 2006,

University of Guelph with focus in sustaining rural communities and local

No modeling of ecotourism- Sustainable projects,

has had a strong influence in determining themodus operandiof other

Affs a prerequisite 2 conservation

Lifting the embargo is a prereq. to conservation- boats.

in tourism-related efforts, Cubans at the Cancn meeting said. And even

Cuba is taking actions to fight beach erosion and make

Coalitions of US and Cuban scientists, NGOs, and govt.

Ocean Solutions aims to aid Vulnerable Fisheries, June 28 2012, Lexis

Cuba is already protecting its reefs, and working with

Greenhouse gas already in the atmosphere will degrade

Climate Change: Coral Reefs Expected to Suffer Greatly, Study Finds,

Part of evolution is the loss of some species- trying to

Geologic history proves that a cycle of biodiversity and

America, especially Cuba, previously Mexico/Central America news chief at

The tourism industry is monopolized by the governmentwill not help reform.

begins his argument by highlighting the oft-repeated advice that the

not Worried about Cuba, The Jamaican Gleaner, April 15 2009,

Tourism mixed results

consultant to the Central Bank of Venezuela, Vacation Over: Implications for

Lifting the embargo would increase Carbbean tourism

consultant to the Central Bank of Venezuela, Vacation Over: Implications for

permitted distant tourist destinations to accommodate artificially

Chinese Influence Good DA

FINISHED ARGUMENTS