crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear

Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal

Component Analysis

Crude oil prices do not play an important role in the global economy, and constitute a
major input to the option pricing formulas, and portfolio allocation, and risk
measurement. In this paper, proposes a hybrid model integrating linear regression and
multiple wavelets (Forums) to predict crude oil prices. In this model, Mallat wavelet
transform is selected first to decompose the original time series into several subseries
with different size. Then, is the use of the main component analysis (PCA) in data
processing subseries in the world of Eve to predict crude oil prices. Is the use of particle
swarm optimization (PSO) to adopt better standards of model MLR. To evaluate the
effectiveness of this model, market crude oil per day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has
been used as a case study. Is compared to the performance of the ability to predict the
time series model WMLR with the world of Eve, Arima, and GARCH models using
various measures statistics. Experimental results show that the proposed model
outperforms the individual models in the prediction of a series of crude oil prices.
Accuracy wavelet multi-linear regression (WMLR) technique to predict the daily has
been investigated crude oil in this study. PCA is used to select dozens of principle
component of the input selected, which were used as independent variables in the model
is the use of MLR and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adopt better standards of
model MLR. Was compared to the performance of the proposed model WMLR for
regular LR, Arima, and GARCH model to predict crude oil. The results of the comparison
that the model WMLR was much more accurate than other models. The study concludes
that are found on the forecasting capabilities of the model MLR to improve when it
adopted the wavelet transform technique for processing the data.
The Scientific World Journal
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 854520, 8 pages
Ani Shabri1 and Ruhaidah Samsudin