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Culture Documents
AJM Initiation Dec012011 PDF
AJM Initiation Dec012011 PDF
AJM.ASX
Capital costs are not expected to exceed A$10m with all mining,
crushing and trucking conducted on a contract basis. FOB cash
margins are estimated to be ~A$40/t.
Other Assets
Recommendation
Price
Price Target
Valuation
Valuation Method
GICS sector
Market Cap*
Shares on Issue*
Enterprise Value*
Previous rating
* Fully diluted for options
After the recent option conversion AJM are fully funded, with
current cash at A$28m, to development of the Tabalong and Mt
Webber projects to first production.
$0.16
$0.27
$0.33
DCF
Metals & Mining
69
m
446.6
$m
41
Initiating coverage
$m
11a
12e
13e
14e
Mt
Mt
kt
$m
$m
%
$m
$m
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.4
-1.0
-1.8
-1.7
0.00
0.10
0.00
19.4
3.5
18.3
3.2
3.3
0.02
0.55
0.00
70.4
22.4
31.8
18.2
18.3
0.60
0.75
0.00
169.9
69.5
40.9
47.2
47.3
EPS adj
-0.5
0.7
4.1
10.6
na
0.0
0%
na
na
na
0.0
0%
20.8
na
450
0.0
0%
3.8
na
158
0.0
0%
1.5
na
na
na
na
0
11.7
8
5
0
1.8
29
22
0
0.6
45
36
0
EV/EBITDA
ROA
ROE
Debt / Debt + equity
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
CHART
Source: IRESS
BUY
Matt Baillie
+61 (0) 2 8252 3275
c
%
x
%
x
%
%
%
Share Price
$ 0.16
Valuation $ 0.33
Market Measures
2011a
2012e
2013e
2014e
Sales
8.4
19.4
70.4
169.9
Op. costs
6.0
11.7
40.4
85.6
Royalty
0.0
0.7
4.2
11.4
Corporate
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
CFPS
CF multiple
Exploration Writeoff
EBITDA
Dep/Amtz
EBIT
Net Interest
Pre-Tax Profit
Tax Provision
Net Profit/(Loss)
Abnormals
Reported Net Profit
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
3.5
22.4
69.5
0.1
1.1
1.9
3.4
-1.1
2.5
20.5
66.1
2013e
2014e
-0.5
0.7
4.1
10.6
EPS growth
na
na
449.7
157.8
PE multiple
na
20.8
3.8
1.5
cps
-1.3
0.3
4.6
12.9
na
na
na
1.2
DPS
cps
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dividend Yield
na
na
na
na
Enterprise value
$m
66.0
49.3
49.2
44.3
0.5
1.1
1.0
1.4
3.5
21.5
67.5
0.4
0.2
3.2
20.3
2011a
2012e
2013e
2014e
-1.7
3.3
18.3
47.3
ROE
na
22
36
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ROA
na
29
45
-1.8
3.2
18.2
47.2
NPAT / Sales
na
17
26
28
EBITDA / sales
na
18
32
41
Gearing (D/[D+E])
2011a
2012e
2013e
2014e
Cash
5.5
19.9
20.1
25.0
Receivables
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Fixed assets
23.6
38.8
59.8
111.2
Mount Webber
Other assets
19.8
11.1
11.1
11.1
MRRT discount
Total Assets
2012e
cps
-1.3
Balance Sheet
Year ending June
2011a
EPS adjusted
Valuation
dr @ 10%
dr @ 5%
Equity
A$m
A$ps
A$m
30%
56.4
0.13
71.8
A$ps
0.16
-5.6
-0.01
-7.2
-0.02
50.8
71.7
92.8
149.1
Tabalong
100%
47.2
0.11
55.6
0.12
Creditors
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
Pilgangoora
100%
7.3
0.02
13.2
0.03
Borrowings
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mining services
13.4
0.03
13.4
0.03
Other liabilities
6.2
6.2
9.2
18.2
Exploration
10.0
0.02
10.0
0.02
Total Liabilities
9.9
7.6
10.6
19.6
Cash
29.1
0.07
29.1
0.07
Net Assets
40.9
64.1
82.2
129.5
Total Borrowings
-1.4
0.00
-1.4
0.00
Share capital
55.2
73.3
73.3
73.3
Corporate/Other
-8.5
-0.02
-9.5
-0.02
Retained earnings
-14.1
-10.8
7.4
54.6
Total Valuation
174.9
0.39
Shareholders Funds
40.9
64.1
82.2
129.5
147.8
0.33
2011a
2012e
Production
Cashflow
2011a
2012e
2013e
2014e
2013e
2014e
0.00
0.00
0.05
2.00
Sales Revenue
8.0
19.4
70.4
169.9
0.00
0.10
0.55
0.75
Less Outflows
-6.2
-11.7
-40.4
-85.6
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Net interest
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
60.3
61.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
53.5
60.1
63.2
-0.6
4.0
23.0
59.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Exploration
-2.6
-2.6
-2.3
-2.0
Capex
-0.5
-13.7
-20.6
-52.8
-8.8
8.8
0.0
0.0
-11.9
-7.6
-22.9
-54.8
Dividends paid
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Debt (Repay)/Borrowings
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.0
18.0
0.0
Equity Raised
Other
C/Flow from Financing
2014e
0.86
216
200
194
na
127
125
116
0.0
na
16%
16%
16%
na
na
na
400
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
5.5
19.9
20.0
3.8
14.5
0.1
4.9
Cash at end
5.5
19.9
20.0
25.0
Managing Director
2013e
194
-0.8
2012e
0.96
Net Increase/(Decrease)
James Brown
2011a
1.07
16.2
Major Shareholders
0.99
Cash at Beginning
Directors
Price Assumptions
Resources
Company
Veritas estimate
Mt
% metal
Mt
Iron Ore
25.2
57.5
42.0
57.5
Tabalong
Thermal Coal
13.4
6400kcal
20.0
6400kcal
Pilgangoora
Lithium Oxide
13.3
1.21
13.3
1.21
NPV valuation for Pilgangoora disounted by 70% due to the exploration nature of the project
Dan O'Neill
% metal
Mount Webber
5%
-2-
Investment Summary
$28m in cash to fund
development of Tabalong
and Mt Webber
We Initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and place a price target of 27cps based
on our risk adjusted DCF of mining assets. The company has $28m (7cps) in cash and
anticipates first cash flows from Tabalong production in JQ12 and Mt Webber in JQ13. Based
on our cash flow forecasts we see AJM currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 1.8 times
FY2013 and 0.6x times FY2014.
Tabalong expected to
ramp up to 750kt per
annum in FY13
At the Tabalong coal project (100%), capital expenditure to bring the 13.4mt Tabalong
resource into production is estimated at A$10m, which can be funded from current cash. A
project go-ahead requires Forestry Land Use Permits and negotiations with Pinang Services
Indonesia (Noble group) for access to their haul road and barge loading facilities. We
forecast first production in JQ12 given the short time frame required to bring projects of this
nature into production. We expect the mine to ramp up to 750ktpa within 12 months and
produce at this level for 12 years based on the current resource base.
Management have
extensive coal mining
development experience
Management has a long history of bringing coal projects into production in Australia and
Indonesia, where they were instrumental in the funding, mine and infrastructure
development of what is now Indonesias largest single coal mine, Adaro. The management
team is looking to leverage their development experience by entering into JV agreements
with local companies to develop projects. The key objective is to transform AJM into a
medium sized Indonesian coal producer (3-6mtpa) within the next 3 to 5 years.
Exploration is ongoing at
the Pilgangoora Lithium
project
The Mt Webber (30%) DFS is currently being undertaken by AJMs JV partner Atlas Iron and
is due by the end of MQ12 as part of Atlas Pilbara iron ore operations. AJM anticipate that
their share of capital costs will be less than A$20m with first production expected in JQ13,
ramping up to 3mtpa within 12 months. The Mt Webber project JV development will cover
capital costs to the mine gate and is to exclude the development of a centralised crushing
and blending facility (required for AGOs Mt Webber and McPhee Creek projects) and private
haul road which is to be funded separately by Atlas as part of their Pilbara iron ore
operations.
AJM also have an exposure to the growing lithium market with the advanced Pilgangoora
exploration project in north-west WA. Ongoing drilling (extension and infill) is expected to
significantly increase the low strip resource from 13.3mt at 1.21% Li2O.
AJMs 100% and 50% interest in two mining services and exploration companies in
Indonesia generates cash flows in excess of $2m per annum. This has provided sufficient
funds to cover corporate and administrative overheads.
-3-
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Company Background
AJM is an emerging bulk
commodity producer
seeking to bring two
assets into production in
CY2012 and CY2013
Altura Mining Limited (AJM) is an ASX listed miner with advanced coal, iron ore and lithium
projects. Complementing their portfolio of projects (also including a garnet project and
uranium, base metals precious metals exploration projects), the company owns two
Indonesian mining services companies.
AJM is continuing to progress its two key assets towards production while further developing
their WA based Pilgangoora Lithium project. The company is seeking to move their 100%
owned Tabalong thermal coal project in Indonesia into production during CY2012 and their
Mt Webber iron ore project (30% JV with Atlas Iron) into production in early CY2013.
AJM recently announced a 95% take up of outstanding 31 August 15c options; raising
$18.6m to take total cash on the balance sheet to $28m. We anticipate that current cash
will cover the majority of the capital expenditure required for the development of Tabalong
and Mt Webber. The company currently has no debt.
Located in the province of South Kalimantan (Indonesia's Tabalong district), the Tabalong
coal project incorporates two adjacent mining permits covering an area of 63km 2 in the coal
bearing area of the Tanjung Formation. To date the company has defined a JORC Resource
of 13.4mt of outcropping, high calorific value (GAR 6350), low ash, mid-sulphur coal and
continues to explore within their concessions, targetting an overall resource of 20-25mt.
-4-
A recent upgrade to the companys IUP (Izin Usaha Pertambangan) permits to Operation
Production status moves the company closer to first production. A Forestry permit will also
be required prior to the commencement of mining.
The company intends to mine, crush and truck the crushed coal 110km on designated haul
roads to a third party barge loading facility on the Barito River where it will be sold FOB at
an initial production rate of 500ktpa, ramping up to 750ktpa. A 30km section of road to
Pinang Services Indonesias (PSI) existing haul road will require upgrading, assesment and
negotiation (with PSI) is currently being undertaken. Mining, coal preparation, trucking and
barge loading will be conducted on a contracting basis.
Location
Located in South Kalimantan, the
Tabalong Coal project sits within
a highly prospective region of
Kalimantan for thermal and
coking coal.
The Tabalong project lies 60km
north of the Adaro operation and
110km by haul road to the Barito
River. Coal will be sold FOB at
barge, where it will travel
~280km down river to be transshipped to Panamax vessels.
Resource description
AJMs Indonesian coal tenements were acquired as part of the purchase of Minvest
International Corporation in September 2007. At the time of the acquisition Minvest had
secured options to acquire all the shares in PT Suryaraya Permata Khatulistiwa (SPK) and PT
Suryaraya Cahaya Cemerlang (SCC), each of which held a Kuasa Pertambangan (KP or
Mining Right) for coal in South Kalimantan.
In two distinct areas, AJM has defined Area A which consists of the SPK IUP in the north and
SCC IUP in the south which holds the current Tabalong resource. Area B, to the east of Area
A is the second SCC IUP area and yet to have a resource defined.
The deposit comprises six seams (A to F) outcropping in the east of the IUP's and dipping
generally around 30 degrees to the west. Seam B is the main target within the initial mining
area with seam thickness ranging from 1.0 to 18 metres.
This region of Kalimantan has been the focus on intense exploration for coal, resulting in
numerous occurrences of coking coal products (to the north and west of Tabalong) and high
energy thermal coals. Analysis of Tabalong coal has to date identified the presence of high
-5-
quality thermal coals. All coal samples recovered will continue to be analysied for coking
properties.
Pre-development drilling is ongoing in the northern section of SPK to provide extended coal
quality data for the initial mining area. This information will supplement marketing data to
enable specific coal offtake arrangements.
Tabalong coal typical cross section
Permitting
Upgrade to the IUPs have
been received this quarter
Both IUPs have recently been upgraded to Operation Production status. Subsequent to the
IUP upgrade the company will require Forestry land Use Permits (Pinjam Pakai) from the
Forestry Minister prior to commencement of mining.
Forestry Land Use Permits are the final permitting hurdle required prior to first production.
Production profile
First production is expected
JQ2012
The current cost of production estimate (FOB barge, including royalty) is US$60 per tonne.
Thermal coal prices have firmed in Indonesia during the year with coal of similar qualities
selling for US$115-120/t (FOB equivalent). Initially, AJM intend to sell coal at the barge load
out point to a third party. We estimate that marketing costs will be US$2/t and
barging/trans-ship costs $US15/t leaving an operating margin of $US38-43/t.
Capital costs for land acquisitions, pre-production earthworks, site infrastructure, road
upgrades and barge load out facilities have been estimated at $US10m. Volumes of product
will initially be small and all mining, crushing and transportation will be conducted on a
contract basis keeping capital requirements down, however this figure is not definitive and
subject to change.
Offtake Contracts
We view Tabalong coal as an excellent high quality export product. In our view this will
make it highly desirable for existing coal export groups to blend with other high quality coal
or to sweeten shipments of lower Kcal Indonesian coal of which there is no shortage. AJM
are currently negotiating access to Pinang Services Indonesias private haul road and barge
loading facilities on the Barito River, in our opinion Noble would be the logical buyer of
Tabalong coal. The company has indicated that initially they would sell coal at the barge
loading point (FOB barge).
Commodity pricing/market
Tabalong coal expected to
price in line with Newcastle
on a US$/t basis
The Tabalong Coal Resource indicates a marketable product with high energy, low ash and
low to medium sulphur characteristics. A significant proportion of the measured resource is
categorised as Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) Type 1 coal. Index pricing for this coal adjusted
to typical Tabalong district coal CV is in line with Newcastle spot prices and provides a
promising outlook for Tabalong as it moves to production.
140
120
110
100
90
-7-
5/11/2011
5/10/2011
5/09/2011
5/08/2011
5/07/2011
5/06/2011
5/05/2011
5/04/2011
5/02/2011
5/03/2011
5/01/2011
5/12/2010
5/11/2010
5/10/2010
5/09/2010
5/08/2010
5/07/2010
5/06/2010
5/05/2010
5/04/2010
80
5/03/2010
130
Benchmark pricing in Indonesia for tax and royalty calculations is based off an index (HBA
6322kcal) that uses the previous 3 month average for a combined group of pricing measures
(Indonesia Coal Index, Platts-1, Newcastle Export Index and the Newcastle Export Index
from the previous month). This price is then adjusted up to the key Prima brand coal and
Tanjung formation coals are then priced off this using the formula P = 0.969*Prima 3.2.
The Tanjung formation coal price has averaged 0.9% discount to the HBA over CY2011.
140
130
120
110
100
90
Source: Bloomberg, Veritas
5/11/2011
5/10/2011
5/09/2011
5/08/2011
5/07/2011
5/06/2011
5/05/2011
5/04/2011
5/02/2011
5/03/2011
5/01/2011
5/12/2010
5/11/2010
5/10/2010
5/09/2010
5/08/2010
5/07/2010
5/06/2010
5/05/2010
5/04/2010
5/03/2010
80
trucked to Port Hedland on designated Atlas haul roads. Initial plans involved the trucking of
ore from Mt Webber to a central processing facility (The Turner River Hub), however after
recent agreement changes between Atlas and a third party we anticipate that crushing and
screening of Mt Webber ore to will occur at site, but outside the AJM/Atlas JV. We anticipate
the delivery of the DFS for the project prior to the end of MQ12.
Partnership with an existing operator provides AJM with access to management experienced
in developing and operating iron ore mines as well as access to infrastructure and a proven
path to market. We expect that AJMs share of production will be sold to Atlas at the mine
gate at an FOB price net of freight, handling and infrastructure costs. AJM will incur all
haulage, handling and ship loading cash costs plus an additional asset utilisation or
infrastructure fee.
AJM is currently negotiating the Joint Operations Agreement with Atlas Iron the terms of
which, once agreed by both parties, will allow the project to advance towards development
and first production.
Location
AJMs tenements totalling 333 square kilometers are located in the north-west of the Pilbara,
close to existing rail infrastructue and truckable 150km south-southeast of Port Hedland.
While the most logical route to Port Hedland is via the existing rail infrastructure (40km to
the west of Mt Webber) to date, favourable access agreements have failed to be negotiated.
The medium term transport solution will be to truck Mt Webber iron ore along private haul
roads to Port Hedland, with AGO continuing to review rail options for their North Pilbara
operations. Mt Webber ore will be blended with ore from other Atlas Iron mines and
shipped via the multi-user Utah Port facility.
AJM is the minority partner with Atlas in the development of the Mt Webber project however
it retains 100% title ownership in all of the joint venture tenements.
-9-
Resource description
Resource estimate of 41.9mt
at 57.1% Fe
Drill testing of the first Mt Webber DSO targets commenced in May 2009 with the first
significant intersections returning up to 66 metres at 58.5% Fe from surface. The project
now has a combined mineral resource estimate for the project of 41.9mt at an average
grade greater than 57.1% Fe. Exploration of other prospects in the area is ongoing.
Source: Atlas Iron, 4 August 2009 Maiden Resource for Mt Webber DSO Project
The Ore Reserve estimate represents a very high conversion of over 97% of the Indicated
Mineral Resource at the Ibanez deposit located within the Mt Webber project area (see
Table below).
- 10 -
Atlas Iron estimate FOB cash costs of $42-45/t for FY2012. As AJM iron ore will be
transported from mine to ship by Atlas Iron an asset utilisation fee will be charged to the
company. Company estimates of $15-20/t for this fee (we view this as conservative)
increase expected cash costs to AJM of ~$60/t. With current benchmark pricing for iron ore
in excess of $150/t AJM should enjoy robust cash margins.
The DFS and final capital costs are yet to be released. Using previous capital costs on
Pardoo ($18/ annual tonne) and estimated stand-alone capital costs for Abydos (up to
$20/annual tonne) it is likely that the capital costs for Mt Webber as a stand-alone operation
will be in line/above these figures (plus inflation). We estimate capital costs of $18$23/annual tonne or $54-$69m. We estimate capital expenditure of $60m in our modeling of
the project as it is likely that all crushing and screening capital will be provided by Atlas,
AJMs capital requirements may be lower than assumed.
Production profile
AJM share of production to
be sold at the mine gate
(subject to agreement)
Production of iron ore from Mt Webber is likely to commence in CY2013, subject to receiving
all necessary approvals, negotiation of operating and offtake agreements, and completion of
a favourable DFS. When fully operational, Mt Webber will have an initial production rate of
3mtpa (AJM share 900ktpa).
Offtake agreements
As AJM is the 30% JV partner to a larger group operating multiple mines, processing and
blending facilities, the logical buyer of AJMs share of Mt Webber iron ore is Atlas Iron. The
company has indicated that, subject to agreement, AJMs share of production will be sold at
mine gate to Atlas at the FOB price.
- 11 -
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jan-09
40
Source: Bloomberg
Pilgangoora is an early stage hard rock lithium project located in the north of the Pilbara.
AJM has identified an initial JORC Mineral Resource estimate of 13.3 million tonnes of
mineralised spodumene pegmatites at 1.21% Li2O, containing 160kt of lithium oxide (Li2O).
The company continues to explore and develop this orebody, with an exploration target of
18-25mt. Following the current exploration program the company anticipates completion of
a PFS by the end of FY2012.
Location
The Pilgangoora project is located in North West WA (North Pilbara) 80km south-south east
of Port Hedland.
- 12 -
Resource description
Cross section of the Pilgangoora deposit (C1)
Resource outline
The focus of recent drilling was to establish the pegmatite resources for the S1 area and to
establish the geological continuity with the C1 area located 500m to the north. In addition to
this activity, drilling will continue to prove up the down dip resources for the C1, E1 and N1
areas.
AJM recently signed a two year option agreement over the lithium rich pegmatites that
extend from AJMs E45/2758 tenement into tenement E45/2363 (Atlas).
For the remainder of CY2011, further drilling will be undertaken at the site to expand the
resource. AJM intends to complete all feasibility and mining applications for the project prior
to the end of CY2012.
Based on the successful completion of the previous stages and subject to statutory
approvals and permitting, AJM intends to commence development of Pilgangoora in FY2014,
with first production expected in FY2015.
Testing indicates a
concentrate of 6.5-7% Li2O
is possible
In the 2010 Independent Technical Expert Report for the Mt Cattlin mine Snowden
estimated a capital cost of $60m for a 1mtpa processing plant. We are modeling an 800ktpa
plant based on the current resource and exploration upside for a 14 year mine life.
Production profile
The current resource would
support an operating life of
14 years to produce 100ktpa
of product
Initial metallurgical testing and processing show a concentrate of 6.5% to 7% lithium oxide
is possible. Current resource estimates support a production capacity of over 100,000 tonnes
per annum of lithium oxide concentrate for 14 years with first production possible in FY2015.
AJM owns two Indonesian mining service companies, acquired as part of the 2007 Minvest
International acquisition; PT Asiadrill Bara Utama (100%) and PT Velseis Indonesia (50%).
Indonesia is experiencing strong growth in the coal sector and AJM's Mining and Exploration
Services division is well placed to capitalise on this growth.
Asiadrill has long-term coal exploration and drilling services contracts with a number of
major mining companies in Indonesia. The company owns and operates a fleet which
includes 16 large drill rigs, 15 man portable rigs, truck and track mounted drills, heli-lift and
man-portable units for environmentally sensitive areas, and associated support vehicles. The
company employs a permanent workforce of 50 people and up to 100 contractors.
AJM also owns a 50% interest in PT Velseis Indonesia, which conducts geophysical services
including seismic and wireline logging. The company currently has 11 wireline units and a
permanent staff of 24.
Revenue from these two business is expected to be A$8-9million for FY2011 with an
operating margin of ~30%. Historically 85-100% of revenues and currently 100% of
contracted capacity has/is being derived from third party contracts.
Valuation
Balance sheet
95% takeup of August 15c
options provided $18m cash
to fund development
projects
With $28 million in cash on the balance sheet following the 95% take up of the 129.5m 15
cent options, AJM is fully funded for the development of their first project. Capital costs for
Tabalong are expected to be at most $10m. Remaining cash, supplemented with cash flow
generated from the coal operation is expected to be sufficient to cover AJMs share of the
capital costs for the Mt Webber JV. We have assumed a capital cost of A$50m for the
development of the Pilgangoora asset within our model, funded with cash flow from Mt
Webber and Tabalong.
- 14 -
DCF Valuation
Unrisked valuations
Tabalong: $47m
Our price target is based on a risked sum-of-parts DCF (10% discount rate) for the mining
assets and an EBITDA multiple of 5 times for the mining services businesses. Our production
assumptions and risk discount for each asset is as follows:
Tabalong We have assumed that AJM receives the required forestry permits prior
to the end of CY 2011, with first production in the June half of FY2012, ramping up
to full production of 750ktpa within 12 months. As there remains a degree of
uncertainty surrounding the timing of final permits and the eventual capital
(expected to be up to a maximum of A$10m) and operating costs, we have applied
a discount of 40% to our NPV.
Mt Webber: $54m
Current EV: $39m
Mount Webber
MRRT discount
Tabalong
Pilgangoora
Mining services
Exploration
Sub Total
Cash
Total Borrowings
Corporate/Other
TOTAL
Discount
20%
20%
40%
70%
5x EBITDA
Risked valuation
NAV
NAV
45.1
-4.5
28.3
7.3
13.4
10.0
99.6
29.1
0.10
-0.01
0.06
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.22
0.07
Un-risked valuation
NAV
NAV
56.4
-5.6
47.2
7.3
13.4
10.0
128.6
29.1
0.13
-0.01
0.11
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.29
0.07
-1.4
0.00
-1.4
0.00
-8.5
-0.02
-8.5
-0.02
118.7
0.27
147.8
0.33
- 15 -
Production/cost assumptions
Assumed declining
commodity prices
Production summary
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Mount Webber
DSO Iron Ore (100% basis)
000t
2,000
3,000
3,000
Cash costs
A$/t
60.3
50
61.9
61.3
57.3
Price received
A$/t
120.7
127.1
104.2
81.3
Cash margin
A$/t
60.4
65.2
42.9
24.0
550
750
750
750
Tabalong
Thermal coal
000t
100
Cash costs
A$/t
54
60
63
65
66
Price received
A$/t
103
108
112
97
91
Cash margin
A$/t
50
48
49
32
25
80
128
Pilgangoora
Li2O Concentrate
000t
Recovery
80
80
Cash costs
A$/t
257
262
Price received
A$/t
471
471
214
209
Cash margin
Cash flow summary
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
A$ (mill)
4.00
23.00
59.72
37.64
26.21
A$ (mill)
-7.55
-22.90
-54.80
-8.80
-8.80
A$ (mill)
-3.55
0.10
4.92
28.84
17.41
1.07
0.96
0.86
0.85
0.85
Currency assumptions
AUD/USD
Risks
AJM Mining is exposed to the normal risks associated with resource companies in a
development stage. The following are key near term risks to development of the two assets
that underpin the value of the company:
Permitting: A recent upgrade to the companys IUP (Izin Usaha Pertambangan) permits to
Operation Production status moves the company closer to first production. A Forestry permit
will also be required prior to the commencement of mining.
Access agreements: Tabalong requires access to Noble Groups haul road to transport
coal to the Barito river. This agreement is currently being negotiated. As Noble are the most
logical buyer of Tabalong coal we view this risk as small.
- 16 -
Capital costs: Capital costs are yet to be determined for Tabalong or Mt Webber (DFS
pending). If significant increases in the capital requirements or changes to the timing of
these occur, these may have funding implications for the company.
JV agreements: Failure to negotiate a favourable Joint Operations Agreement with Atlas
Iron for Mt Webber would delay the project. Terms that are less than favourable to AJM are
unlikely to be agreed, however the final terms of agreement and the infrastucture charge
applied may have a negative impact on cash flows and our valuation.
Management team
Management have coal mine
development experience in
Indonesia via the
development of NHC JV
Adaro
The management team was responsible for the successful development of the Adaro mine
and port facility in Indonesia, developed as a NHC JV to 25mtpa (now a 45mpta producer of
low Kcal, high moisture coal). In our view this team, with the addition of the right JV partner
(local connections and resource base) has a high probability of success.
The company has stated that their desire is to grow to a 3-6mtpa coal mining operator in
Indonesia from 2-3 operations within the Tabalong area.
Board Structure
- 18 -
Industry Comparison
AJM is currently trading at an
enterprise value (EV) of $44m,
including two mining services
companies which we value at
$13.4m.
Code
Share Price
Mcap
Enterprise
Project
Marketable
20/05/11
Diluted
Value
Status
Resources
SiO2
Al2O3
EV
P
A$/t
Hematite
(A$)
(A$m)
(A$m)
(Mt)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
AJM
0.16
70
42
Feasibility
12
56.8
6.56
2.25
0.09
MGX
1.29
1,399
1,055
Production
103
61.5
8.21
1.26
0.03
10.2
BC Iron
BCI
2.36
225
213
Production
53
54.1
4.28
3.57
0.02
4.0
Atlas Iron **
AGO
2.99
2,993
2,597
Production
1,034
56.5
6.5
3.0
0.10
2.5
Sundance Resources
SDL
0.39
1,144
1,084
Feasibility
521
60.7
6.90
2.30
0.10
2.1
Centaurus Metals *
CTM
0.53
80
56
Feasibility
50
65.2
4.10
0.92
0.02
1.1
Murchison Metals
MMX
0.38
173
216
Production
111
56.9
7.4
0.70
0.06
2.0
FMG
4.74
14,801
17,011
Production
11,420
56.7
6.19
4.54
0.07
1.5
SFZ
0.16
74
71
Production
78
65.5
4.00
1.00
0.05
0.9
Gindalbie Metals *
GBG
0.52
598
765
Development
1,027
68.6
4.75
0.10
0.01
0.7
GWR
0.40
81
51
Feasibility
130
60.0
7.40
2.40
0.06
0.4
Richmond Mining *
RHM
0.24
20
16
Development
44
67.5
2.75
1.00
0.01
0.4
Brockman Resources *
BRM
1.97
294
254
Feasibility
696
61.0
6.25
2.75
0.02
0.4
Centrex Metals
CXM
0.29
90
Feasibility
55
67.8
4.50
0.30
0.03
0.1
IOH
1.30
225
188
Feasibility
934
57.2
7.00
2.44
0.15
0.2
RHI
2.33
102
99
Feasibility
472
56.6
6.03
3.75
0.07
Industry Average
0.2
1.78
Notes: * SFZ, BRM, CTM, GBG. and RHM are beneficiated resources. ** Incorporates 100% of FerrAus
Source: Company Reports, Veritas estimates, Nov 2011
Code
Altura MiningX
New Hope Corporation&
Price
Mcap
EV
(Dil.)
(Dil.)
Status
Reserves
Resources
($m)
($m)
AJM
0.16
70
42
Advanced Exploration
20
EV/
EV/
Resources
Reserves
($t)
($t)
7.5
NHC
5.97
4,957
4,863
Production
648
2048
2.4
Adaro
ADRO (IJ)
0.21
6,818
7,768
Production
938
4400
1.8
8.3
Sakari Resources
SAR (SP)
1.52
1,724
1,905
Production
130
1510
1.3
14.7
Gloucester Coal
GCL
6.92
1,415
1,358
Production
275
1512
0.9
4.9
Coal of Africa**
CZA
0.81
447
471
Production
53
527
0.9
8.8
Coalspur#
CPL
1.89
1,303
1,243
Pre-DFS
260
1460
0.9
4.8
BUMI (IJ)
0.23
4,719
8,402
Production
2900
12900
0.7
2.9
Stanmore Coal
SMR
0.78
111
99
Exploration
94
328
0.3
1.1
Realm ResoucesX
RRP
0.09
25
Feasilbilty
30
0.3
na
Cockatoo Coal
COK
0.38
402
478
Production
74
1752
0.3
6.4
Continental Coal
CCC
0.22
103
120
Production
64
565
0.2
1.9
Bandanna Energy#
BND
0.85
456
318
Pre-DFS
147
1534
0.2
2.2
Kangaroo Resources
KRL
0.16
555
553
Production
442
3146
0.2
1.3
Endocoal
EOC
0.39
68.6
58.9
Exploration
349
0.2
na
REY Resources
REY
0.17
63
57
Development
18
535
0.1
3.2
Resource Generation
RES
0.51
136
113
Development
745
6400
0.0
0.2
Mantle Mining
MNM
0.07
14
13
Exploration
na
na
0.7
4.9
BUMI**
Industry Averages
#
**non-JORC reserve/resource
&
Resource Target
- 19 -
Sales
Research
Resources
Industrials
This report has been issued by Veritas Securities Limited A.B.N. 94 117 124 535, Australian Financial Services Licence Number 297043.
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- 20 -