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TraditionalDeclineAnalysisTheory

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TraditionalDeclineAnalysisTheory
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ConceptualDefinitionofDeclineAnalysis
Declineanalysisisareservoirengineeringempiricaltechniquethatextrapolatestrendsintheproductiondatafromoiland
gaswells.ThepurposeofaDeclineanalysisistogenerateaforecastoffutureproductionratesandtodeterminethe
expectedultimaterecoverable(EUR)reserves.
Figure1:Rateversuscumulativegasproduction

Typically,declineanalysisisconductedonaplotofrateversustimeorrateversuscumulativeproduction(asshownin
figureabove).ThemostcommonlyusedtrendingequationsarethosefirstdocumentedbyJ.J.Arps(1945).Thefollowing
figuredemonstratesamatchtrendandextrapolationtotheEUR.
Figure2:Rateversuscumulativegasproduction

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HistoricalBackground
J.J.ArpswasanAmericangeologistwhopublishedamathematicalrelationshipfortherateatwhichoilproductionfroma
singlewelldeclinesovertime(1945).Hispapermadeseveralreferencestoexistingmethodsandtheoryaboutdecline
analysis.ReferencesincludedArnoldandAnderson(1908),W.W.Cutler(1924),H.N.Marsh(1928),andR.E.Allen
(1931).
ManycontemporarypublishedpapershavetriedtoinvestigateormodifytheArpsdeclinebasedontheoretical
derivations.However,after70years,theoriginalmethodisstillwidelyinuse.

PracticalDeclineAnalysisKeyPoints
Allproductioncanbecharacterizedashavinganinitialtransientflowperiodfollowedbyaboundarydominatedflow
period.Duringthetransientperiod,thereservoirpressureattheflowboundaryremainsconstantattheinitialreservoir
pressureandtheflowboundarymovesoutwardfromthewellthroughthereservoir.Thisportionofawellsflowis
characterizedbyveryhighdeclinerates.Whentheflowboundaryreachesanactualreservoirboundary,ormeetswitha
flowboundaryofanotherwell,thereservoirpressurebeginstodeclineandthewellenterstheboundarydominatedflow
period.Itisinthisperiodthattraditionaldeclinemethods(i.e.Arps)canbeused.
Thetransientflowperiodcanlastfortimeperiodsfromseveralminutestoseveralyears,dependinguponpermeability
andthearealextentofthereservoir.Formostconventionalproduction,thetransientflowperiodendsafterafew
days.Tighterreservoirsthathavepermeabilityinthe0.5to1.0mDrangecanhavetransientperiodsthatlastseveral
months.Reservoirsthathaveevenlowerpermeabilitiesthatrequireextensivefracturenetworkscanhavetransient
periodsthatcouldlastforseveralyears.
Onceawellhasachievedboundarydominatedflow,anotherimportantconsiderationisthesandfaceflowing
pressure.Fortheperiodofproductionincludedinthedeclineanalysis,thesandfaceflowingpressuremustberelatively
constantbeforeareliablesetofdeclineparameterscanbeextracted.Factorsthataffectsandfaceflowingpressureare
ratecontrolledwells,changingwellheadbackpressure,changingwellboreconfigurations,andliquidloading.

DeclineTheory
Thetheoryofalldeclinecurveanalysisbeginswiththeconceptofthenominal(instantaneous)declinerate(a),whichis
definedasthefractionalchangeinrateperunittime:

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Anotherwayofrepresentingthedeclinerateisbasedonrate(q)andthedeclineexponentconstantb.

Whenproductionisplottedasflowratevs.time,thenominaldeclinerateisequaltotheslopeatapointintimedivided
bytherateatthatpoint.
Figure3

Thebehaviouroftheproductiondatacanbecharacterizedbasedonthewayinwhichthenominaldeclineratevarieswith
rate,basedonthevalueofthedeclineexponentconstantb.
Exponentialb=0
Hyperbolicbisavalueotherthan0or1
Harmonicb=1

Exponential
Fortheexponentialcase,b=zero.Thedeclineratecanbeshownas:

Wherekisaconstantequaltoa/qbatinitialconditions:

Asthedeclinerateremainsconstant,theintegrationoftheequationfordeclinerateresultsin:
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Therefore,aplotofflowratevs.time,withratesettoalogarithmicaxis,willresultinastraightline.
Thecumulativeproductionisdefinedas:

Therefore,aplotofflowratevs.cumulativeproductionwillresultinastraightline.

Hyperbolic
Forthehyperboliccase,bisequaltoanynumberbetweenzeroandone.Thedeclineratecanbeshownas:

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Wherekisaconstantequaltoa/qbatinitialconditions:

Asthedeclinerateisnotconstant,thesubstitutionandintegrationoftheequationfordeclinerateresultsin:

Substituting

Thecumulativeproductionisdefinedas:

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Substituting

Itisnotedthatneitheraplotofflowratevs.timeorflowratevs.cumulativeproductionwillresultinalinearrelation
(regardlessofwhetherrateissettoaCartesianorlogarithmicaxis).

Harmonic
Theharmoniccaseisaspecialcaseoftheabovehyperboliccase,wherebisequaltoone.Thedeclineratecanbe
shownas:

Wherekisaconstantequaltoa/qbatinitialconditions:

Asthedeclinerateisnotconstant,thesubstitutionandintegrationoftheequationfordeclinerateresultsin:

Substituting

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Thecumulativeproductionisdefinedas:

Substituting

Itisnotedthataplotofflowratevs.timewillnotresultinalinearrelation(regardlessofwhetherrateissettoa
Cartesianorlogarithmicaxis).Aplotofflowratevs.cumulativeproduction,withratesettoalogarithmicaxis,willresult
inastraightline.

ExponentialDeclineRate:Nominalvs.Effective
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Whenproductionfollowsanexponentialdecline,therearetwodifferentwaysofdefiningthedeclinerate:Nominaland
Effective.
Thefirstisthenominaldeclinerate,representedbythesymbol"a".Thenominaldeclinerateisdefinedas:

Thenominaldeclinerateisusedtocalculatetheratedeclineataspecifictime.Foragiventime,theequationforrate
usingnominaldeclineis:

Thesecondistheeffectivedeclinerate,representedbythesymbol"d".Theeffectivedeclinerate,foraparticulartime
period(typicallyoneyear),isdefinedas:

Theeffectivedeclinerateisusedtocalculatetheratedeclineforparticulartimeperiods.Foronetimestep,theequation
forrateusingeffectivedeclineis:

Notethatthetimeintervalisincludedintheequationforrateusingeffectivedecline,butisexplicitlystatedinthe
equationforrateusingnominaldecline.
Althoughtheequationsfornominalandeffectivedeclineratesaredifferentfromoneanother,thereisarelationshipthat
willgivethesameanswerforq2providedthetimeintervalsbetweenq1andq2arethesame.Therelationshipbetween
thetwoisgivenby:

Note:Theaboveequationisonlyvalidfortheexponentialequations.
Thedifferencebetweenthetwodeclineratesisillustratedbelow.Ineffect,thenominaldeclinerateisrelatedtothe
instantaneousslopeoftheline,whereastheeffectivedeclineratederivesfromthechordsegmentapproximatingthat
slope.Also,theratebywhichtheslopeisdividedisdifferentinstantaneousrate(q)isusedinthecaseofnominal
decline,whereastheprecedingrate(q1)isusedinthecaseofeffectivedecline.
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Figure4:ComparisonofNominalDeclineandEffectiveDecline

Theeffectivedeclineratetypicallyariseswhendealingwithflowratedataintabularratherthangraphicalformat.The
differencebetweenthenominalandeffectivedeclineratesisverysmallwhenthenominaldeclinerateissmall,butas
thenominaldeclinerategetslargerthedifferencebetweenthetwoincreases.Itisthereforeimportanttousethesevalues
correctly.

ModifiedHyperbolicDecline
Extrapolationofhyperbolicdeclinesoverlongperiodsoftimefrequentlyresultsinunrealisticallyhighreserves.Toavoid
thisproblem,ithasbeensuggestedthatatsomepointintimethehyperbolicdeclinebeconvertedintoanexponential
decline(Robertson).Thus,assumethatforaparticularexample,thedeclineratestartsat30%anddecreasesthrough
timeinahyperbolicmanner.Whenitreachesaspecifiedvalue,10%forexample,thehyperbolicdeclinecanbe
convertedtoanexponentialdecline,andtheforecastcontinuedusingtheexponentialdeclinerateof10%.

LimitedDeclineRate
Thelimiteddeclineratebeginsasahyperbolicdeclinecurveandtransitionsintoanexponentialdeclinecurveata
specifiedlimitingeffectivedeclinerate,dlim.Thelimitingeffectivedeclinerateisconvertedtoalimitingnominaldecline
rate,alim,andthefollowingratetimeequationsareappliedintheanalysis:

where:

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Thelimiteddeclineratecanalsobeexpressedasratecumulativeproductionusingthefollowingequations.
Forb>1:

Forb=1:

Valuesofb>1

Avalueofb=0correspondstoexponentialdecline,valuesofb>0and<1correspondtohyperbolicdecline,andavalue
ofb=1correspondstoharmonicdecline.Valuesofb>1arenotconsistentwithdeclinecurvetheory,buttheyare
sometimesencountered,andtheirmeaningisexplainedbelow.
Declinecurveanalysisisbasedonempiricalobservationsofproductionratedecline,andnotontheoreticalderivations.
Attemptstoexplaintheobservedbehaviourusingthetheoryofflowinporousmedialeadtothefactthattheseempirically
observeddeclinesarerelatedtoboundarydominatedflow.Whenawellisplacedonproduction,therewillbetransient
flowinitially.Eventually,allofthereservoirboundarieswillbefelt,anditisonlyafterthistimethatdeclinecurveanalysis
becomesapplicable.Duringboundarydominatedflow,thevalueof"b"liesintherangeof0to1,dependingonthe
reservoirboundaryconditionsandtherecoverymechanism.
Occasionally,declinecurveswithvaluesofb>1areencountered.Belowaresomereasonsthathavebeenpresentedto
explainthis:

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Theinterpretationiswrong,andanothervalueofb<1willfitthedata.
Thedataisstillintransientflowandhasnotreachedboundarydominatedflow.
GentryandMcCray(1978),usingnumericalsimulationshowedthatreservoirlayeringcancause
valuesofb>1.
Bailey(1982)showedthatsomefracturedgaswellsexhibitvaluesofb>1,sometimesashighas
3.5.

ArpsProductionDeclineEquationSummary
Type

ExponentialDecline
Declineisconstant
b=0

HyperbolicDecline
Declineisproportionaltoafractionalpower(b)ofthe
productionrate
0<b<1

HarmonicDecline
Declineisproportionalto
productionrate
b=1

RateTime

Rate
Cumulative

EUR

Copyright2014IHSInc.

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