Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21

Province Region Riding CPC LPC NDP GPC BQ OTH

Alberta Calgary Calgary – Nosehill 58.16 20.09 7.99 11.96 0 1.54
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre 47.3 21.28 10.62 18.21 0 2.34
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre-North 47.82 18.57 13.43 17.68 0 2.25
Alberta Calgary Calgary East 55.7 16.22 11.07 14.42 0 2.34
Alberta Calgary Calgary Northeast 47.35 24.83 7.9 9.68 0 9.99
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southeast 61.71 15.79 6.97 13.83 0 1.45
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southwest 63.44 14.39 7.14 12.75 0 2.03
Alberta Calgary Calgary West 50.27 24.93 6.21 14.74 0 3.6
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton – St. Albert 51.84 21.17 13.78 11.59 0 1.37
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton Centre 43.54 30.74 12.18 11.27 0 2.02
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton East 40.38 22.96 24.52 10.1 0 1.79
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Leduc 50.85 23.79 11.95 11.61 0 1.55
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Mill 48.23 26.31 13.61 9.76 0 1.84
Woods--Beaumont
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Sherwood 36.63 18.27 12.18 11.79 0 20.87
Park
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Spruce 57.38 18.28 11.22 11.49 0 1.37
Grove
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton-- 34.93 17.04 34.88 10.84 0 2.06
Strathcona
Alberta Rural Alberta Crowfoot 70.39 10.79 7.05 10.14 0 1.37
Alberta Rural Alberta Fort McMurray-- 53.23 17.91 14.41 10.56 0 3.63
Athabasca
Alberta Rural Alberta Lethbridge 57.31 15.13 12.86 10.13 0 4.32
Alberta Rural Alberta Macleod 67.41 11.17 6.09 12.53 0 2.56
Alberta Rural Alberta Medicine Hat 64.79 11.37 9.44 9.72 0 4.43
Alberta Rural Alberta Peace River 56.61 12.71 12.54 10.49 0 7.39
Alberta Rural Alberta Red Deer 64.97 11.34 9.77 12.11 0 1.55
Alberta Rural Alberta Vegreville-- 66.73 10.27 8.7 12.28 0 1.76
Wainwright
Alberta Rural Alberta Westlock--St. Paul 61.59 15.6 9.34 10.54 0 2.67
Alberta Rural Alberta Wetaskiwin 66.99 10.95 8.04 11.9 0 1.87
Alberta Rural Alberta Wild Rose 63.27 11.25 7.46 16.03 0 1.73
Alberta Rural Alberta Yellowhead 62.07 9.99 11.29 12.69 0 3.71
British Columbia Interior British Columbia 24.32 12.9 46.03 15.55 0 0.95
Southern Interior
British Columbia Interior Cariboo--Prince 46.34 13.91 24.53 12.11 0 2.86
George
British Columbia Interior Chilliwack--Fraser 52.03 13.14 18.62 13.67 0 2.28
Canyon
British Columbia Interior Kamloops-- 37.41 15.26 33.27 13.09 0 0.73
Thompson--Cariboo
British Columbia Interior Kelowna--Lake 46.85 18.15 15.85 17.71 0 1.19
Country

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
British Columbia Interior Kootenay--Columbia 50.97 9.53 23.71 14.86 0 0.67
British Columbia Interior Okanagan-- 48.7 15.18 17.8 17.16 0 0.9
Coquihalla
British Columbia Interior Okanagan--Shuswap 43.01 13.86 22.23 18.47 0 2.18
British Columbia Interior Prince George--Peace 55.75 9.87 18.03 15.1 0 0.99
River
British Columbia Interior Skeena--Bulkley 28.96 8.53 47.12 10.41 0 4.72
Valley
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Abbotsford 56.82 14.77 14.32 12.13 0 1.71
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Fleetwood--Port Kells 34.37 26.8 24.27 11.8 0 2.5
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Langley 51.01 14.98 17.29 14.4 0 2.06
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Newton--North Delta 24.93 33.97 28.14 11.18 0 1.53
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Pitt Meadows--Maple 41.08 11.95 32.61 12.36 0 1.75
Ridge--Mission
British Columbia Lower-Mainland South Surrey--White 45.91 24.55 14.27 13.97 0 1.04
Rock--Cloverdale
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Surrey North 26.26 15.09 36.87 10.66 0 10.88
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--Douglas 26.76 23.67 36.8 11.45 0 1.08
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--New 25.96 18.54 41.68 12.22 0 1.35
Westminster
British Columbia Vancouver Delta--Richmond East 45.12 23.28 17.33 13.11 0 0.9
British Columbia Vancouver New Westminster-- 29.26 15.3 42 11.43 0 1.75
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver North Vancouver 33.84 37.86 11.43 15.79 0 0.83
British Columbia Vancouver Port Moody-- 45.66 16.54 22.36 12.65 0 2.53
Westwood--Port
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver Richmond 38.67 34.69 12.93 12 0 1.46
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Centre 22.51 30.89 24.9 19.86 0 1.59
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver East 7.94 18.9 55.36 15.59 0 1.96
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Kingsway 17.43 33.22 35.2 11.66 0 2.24
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Quadra 27.95 44.7 11.03 14.84 0 1.22
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver South 27.47 40.62 19.62 10.7 0 1.34
British Columbia Vancouver West Vancouver-- 34.86 29.05 17.02 18.06 0 0.76
Sunshine Coast--Sea
to Sky Country
British Columbia Vancouver Esquimalt--Juan de 24.77 33.38 26.14 14.19 0 1.27
Island Fuca
British Columbia Vancouver Nanaimo--Alberni 38.04 11.97 32.09 16.04 0 1.61
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Nanaimo--Cowichan 29.33 9.51 45.48 14.43 0 1.01
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Saanich--Gulf Islands 34.33 33.01 13.4 17.69 0 1.32
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Vancouver Island 36.77 7.78 40.55 13.67 0 0.98
Island North
British Columbia Vancouver Victoria 19.8 21.11 41.14 16.49 0 1.21
Manitoba Island
Rural Manitoba Brandon--Souris 51.55 14.32 16.52 16.4 0 0.96
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Churchill 29.58 34.35 23.88 8.08 0 3.85

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Dauphin--Swan 55.63 17.2 15.79 10.35 0 0.77
River--Marquette
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Portage--Lisgar 64.24 14.88 6.51 11.73 0 2.39
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Provencher 60.62 17.13 10.3 10.36 0 1.34
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Selkirk--Interlake 51.62 12.12 26.01 9.63 0 0.37
Manitoba Winnipeg Charleswood--St. 46.59 29.4 13.43 10.46 0 -0.14
James--Assiniboia
Manitoba Winnipeg Elmwood--Transcona 35.35 10.77 42.9 10.05 0 0.68
Manitoba Winnipeg Kildonan--St. Paul 44.34 19.92 26.01 8.98 0 0.5
Manitoba Winnipeg Saint Boniface 37.1 38.91 14 9.55 0 0.19
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg Centre 15.85 21.86 46.22 14.3 0 1.52
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg North 15.62 17.49 57.04 9.13 0 0.47
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 37.13 38.89 13.44 9.63 0 0.66
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 33.16 44.57 11.54 10.84 0 -0.37
Centre
New Brunswick ALL Acadie--Bathurst 12.78 25.6 54.65 5.99 0 0.72
New Brunswick ALL Beauséjour 25.63 47.84 16.1 9.67 0 0.5
New Brunswick ALL Fredricton 35.01 36.25 16.75 11.02 0 0.72
New Brunswick ALL Fundy Royal 45.58 22.31 21.51 9.74 0 0.6
New Brunswick ALL Madawaska-- 28.24 44.53 18.85 7.76 0 0.37
Restigouche
New Brunswick ALL Miramichi 33.95 39.86 16.84 7.54 0 1.55
New Brunswick ALL Moncton--Riverview-- 28.35 44.16 15.98 10.79 0 0.45
Dieppe
New Brunswick ALL New Brunswick 49.55 24.83 16.26 8.47 0 0.65
Southwest
New Brunswick ALL Saint John 37.37 38.2 14.85 8.32 0 1.01
New Brunswick ALL Tobique--Mactaquac 47.15 30.73 12.92 8.52 0 0.43
Newfoundland ALL Avalon 38.9 43.3 10.91 4.75 0 1.88
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Bonavista--Gander-- 25.93 60.14 7.02 4.56 0 2.09
and Labrador Grand Falls--Windsor
Newfoundland ALL Humber--St. Barbe-- 18.09 61.25 12.76 3.49 0 4.16
and Labrador Baie Verte
Newfoundland ALL Labrador 18.82 61.06 10.97 5.74 0 3.14
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Random--Burin--St. 25.72 48.33 18.91 4.85 0 1.94
and Labrador George's
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s East 23.93 19.52 48.67 4.44 0 3.2
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s South- 25.17 37.24 29.89 4.54 0 2.9
and Labrador Mount Pearl
Northwest ALL Western Arctic 25.06 22.66 39.38 10.23 0 2.41
Territories
Nova Scotia ALL Cape Breton--Canso 20.75 49.97 21.24 9.54 0 -1.76

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Nova Scotia ALL Central Nova 42.18 9.92 24.03 24.33 0 -0.72
Nova Scotia ALL Cumberland-- 34.53 18.71 19.32 6.2 0 20.99
Colchester--
Musquodoboit Valley
Nova Scotia ALL Dartmouth--Cole 19.94 40.42 31.8 8.85 0 -1.25
Harbour
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax 16.62 29.98 43.47 11.12 0 -1.44
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax West 19.13 44.25 27.96 9.81 0 -1.4
Nova Scotia ALL Kings--Hants 23.39 44.73 20.5 9.03 0 -0.37
Nova Scotia ALL Sackville-- Eastern 18.67 17.49 56.84 8.2 0 -1.51
Shore
Nova Scotia ALL South Shore -- St. 34.07 26.07 31.1 8.71 0 -0.13
Margaret’s
Nova Scotia ALL Sydney--Victoria 16.89 49.75 25.82 8.68 0 -1.46
Nova Scotia ALL West Nova 35.99 37.69 17.91 8.27 0 -0.18
Nunavut ALL Nunavut 25.28 35.05 21.21 12.77 0 5.44
Ontario Eastern Ontario Carleton--Mississippi 50.71 25.62 8.53 13.9 0 0.99
Mills
Ontario Eastern Ontario Glengarry--Prescott-- 41.69 38.21 8.52 10.5 0 0.82
Russell
Ontario Eastern Ontario Haliburton--Kawartha 47.2 26.47 12.4 12.45 0 1.23
Lakes--Brock
Ontario Eastern Ontario Kingston and the 25.66 43.2 14.84 14.92 0 1.13
Islands
Ontario Eastern Ontario Lanark--Frontenac-- 50.05 24.61 10.67 12.71 0 1.71
Lennox and
Addington
Ontario Eastern Ontario Nepean--Carleton 50.25 27.45 7.92 13.36 0 0.77
Ontario Eastern Ontario Northumberland-- 41.59 32.54 12.64 12.39 0 0.59
Quinte West
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa Centre 18.86 27.97 36.29 15.12 0 1.51
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa South 30.8 47.95 7.53 11.64 0 1.83
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa West--Nepean 39.85 36.85 9.97 11.31 0 1.78
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Orléans 39.43 40.2 8.3 10.94 0 0.88
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Vanier 23.35 46.08 15.57 13.35 0 1.4
Ontario Eastern Ontario Peterborough 38.38 33.99 14.69 11.74 0 0.95
Ontario Eastern Ontario Prince Edward-- 44.82 30.19 11.34 12.19 0 1.2
Hastings
Ontario Eastern Ontario Stormont--Dundas-- 50.96 24.11 10.21 9.95 0 4.51
South Glengarry
Ontario Golden Ajax – Pickering 32.14 46.91 7.56 11.62 0 1.51
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Ancaster--Dundas-- 39.04 31.24 15.74 12.79 0 0.93
Horsehoe/905 Flamborough--
Westdale
Ontario Golden Bramalea--Gore-- 31.2 47.56 9.67 10.16 0 1.15
Horsehoe/905 Malton

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Ontario Golden Brampton West 35.04 43.66 9.58 10.77 0 0.7
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Brampton-- 31.58 44 11.43 11.88 0 0.86
Horsehoe/905 Springdale
Ontario Golden Brant 35.33 35.21 16.02 11.62 0 1.58
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Burlington 41.67 35.66 9.93 11.71 0 0.77
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Dufferin--Caledon 46.5 25.33 7.37 19.4 0 1.15
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Durham 44.15 30.74 9.19 14.12 0 1.55
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Haldimand--Norfolk 39.06 34.24 9.33 9.43 0 7.69
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Halton 41.47 39.74 5.79 11.86 0 0.88
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton Centre 16.9 21.89 46.35 12.39 0 2.22
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton East-- 20.24 31.59 36.24 9.33 0 2.34
Horsehoe/905 Stoney Creek
Ontario Golden Hamilton Mountain 25.76 25.71 37.59 9.84 0 0.84
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Markham--Unionville 26.82 54.84 7.35 9.13 0 1.61
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga East-- 27.5 51.94 8.51 9.84 0 1.96
Horsehoe/905 Cooksville
Ontario Golden Mississauga South 35 45.72 6.62 11.63 0 0.78
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 27.27 51.08 9.1 10.95 0 1.35
Horsehoe/905 Brampton South
Ontario Golden Mississauga--Erindale 36.4 44.96 6.42 11.04 0 0.93
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 31.12 46.96 7.76 11.45 0 2.46
Horsehoe/905 Streetsville
Ontario Golden Newmarket--Aurora 40.07 38.7 6.06 12.3 0 2.62
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Niagara Falls 40.09 30.71 16.18 12.25 0 0.52
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oak Ridges-- 36.14 44.83 6.5 11.14 0 1.13
Horsehoe/905 Markham
Ontario Golden Oakville 40.2 41.3 5.1 12.59 0 0.55
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oshawa 35.65 20.57 31.1 11.24 0 1.19
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Pickering-- 27.8 51.94 8.02 10.92 0 1.06
Horsehoe/905 Scarborough East

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Ontario Golden Richmond Hill 29.3 50.77 6.96 11.79 0 0.93
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden St. Catharines 38.29 32.89 16.13 11.14 0 1.3
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Thornhill 39.17 45.51 4.04 9.77 0 1.27
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Vaughan 26.82 54.3 6.22 11.38 0 1.04
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Welland 26.79 31.97 28.91 10.11 0 1.97
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Whitby--Oshawa 43.15 32.27 11.03 12.18 0 1.13
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden York--Simcoe 48.95 24.62 9.41 14.12 0 2.64
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Northern Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin-- 16.05 35.59 37.76 9.38 0 0.97
Kapuskasing
Ontario Northern Ontario Kenora 32.41 33.93 23.29 9.53 0 0.58
Ontario Northern Ontario Nickel Belt 15.15 33.37 39.83 9.43 0 1.97
Ontario Northern Ontario Nipissing-- 29.74 44.68 13.43 10.94 0 0.95
Timiskaming
Ontario Northern Ontario Parry Sound-- 41.77 31.99 9.18 15.8 0 1
Muskoka
Ontario Northern Ontario Renfrew--Nipissing-- 55.52 23.25 8.47 10.72 0 1.78
Pembroke
Ontario Northern Ontario Sault Ste. Marie 28.26 24.52 36.78 8.94 0 1.24
Ontario Northern Ontario Sudbury 20.23 35.54 30.6 11.57 0 1.8
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay--Rainy 21.1 34.47 34.07 8.92 0 1.19
River
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay-- 20.94 32.84 32.41 11.78 0 1.77
Superior North
Ontario Northern Ontario Timmins--James Bay 13 28.24 49.84 8.09 0 0.58
Ontario Southwestern Barrie 44.09 30.94 8.92 14.85 0 0.94
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Bruce--Grey--Owen 42.59 22.62 7.29 25.84 0 1.41
Ontario Sound
Ontario Southwestern Cambridge 43.8 27.94 14.63 12.7 0 0.68
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Chatham-Kent--Essex 41.73 31.42 14.77 10.91 0 0.91
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Elgin--Middlesex-- 41.86 26.57 17.07 11.57 0 2.68
Ontario London
Ontario Southwestern Essex 34.53 35.13 20.2 9.23 0 0.66
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Guelph 25.05 36.01 18.3 18.69 0 1.69
Ontario

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Ontario Southwestern Huron--Bruce 37.22 37.63 12.11 9.99 0 2.79
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener Centre 30.36 39.83 15.44 12.83 0 1.29
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Conestoga 41.36 31.31 12.16 14.28 0 0.64
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Waterloo 29.33 40.93 12.76 15.23 0 1.49
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Lambton--Kent-- 45.86 27.62 12.64 11.49 0 2.14
Ontario Middlesex
Ontario Southwestern Leeds--Grenville 48.99 23.27 12.85 13.43 0 1.21
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London North Centre 27.49 40.06 14.9 16.38 0 0.92
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London West 32.46 36.78 15.75 13.17 0 1.59
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London--Fanshawe 25.27 29.85 32.87 10.75 0 1
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Niagara West-- 45.26 28.33 12.18 11.33 0 2.65
Ontario Glanbrook
Ontario Southwestern Oxford 46.16 23.64 14.4 11.49 0 4.04
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Perth--Wellington 42.86 26.08 14.27 13.47 0 3.06
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Sarnia--Lambton 40.99 27.15 17.49 11.26 0 2.86
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe North 41.75 33.12 9.32 14.57 0 0.98
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe--Grey 47.71 27.14 8.09 13.69 0 3.12
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Wellington--Halton 49.82 26.81 7.58 13.73 0 1.8
Ontario Hills
Ontario Southwestern Windsor West 17.6 22.61 47.84 10.21 0 1.48
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Windsor--Tecumseh 19.92 24.69 43.73 10.67 0 0.73
Ontario
Ontario Toronto Beaches--East York 13.05 42.29 29.92 13.41 0 1.08
Ontario Toronto Davenport 6.87 48.45 29.13 13.36 0 1.93
Ontario Toronto Don Valley East 26.26 50.96 10.26 11.08 0 1.19
Ontario Toronto Don Valley West 32.02 49.35 6.76 10.67 0 0.94
Ontario Toronto Eglinton--Lawrence 33.89 45.16 7.18 12.43 0 1.1
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke Centre 29.79 52.35 6.3 9.98 0 1.32
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke North 24.41 52.5 11.32 9.66 0 1.86
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31.52 46.15 9.26 11.78 0 1.03

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Ontario Toronto Parkdale--High Park 10.19 41.5 33.96 12.43 0 1.68
Ontario Toronto Scarborough Centre 24.56 51.97 12.57 10.06 0 0.59
Ontario Toronto Scarborough 23.45 44.86 17.48 12.9 0 1.05
Southwest
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 22.92 59.62 6.95 9.23 0 1.03
Agincourt
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 24.88 52.47 11.7 9.9 0 0.8
Guildwood
Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Rouge 16.9 60.78 9.99 7.95 0 4.13
River
Ontario Toronto St. Paul’s 21.81 52.09 11.92 12.99 0 0.94
Ontario Toronto Toronto Centre 13.19 54.94 14.4 15.56 0 1.65
Ontario Toronto Toronto--Danforth 6.54 32.8 43.01 16.01 0 1.38
Ontario Toronto Trinity – Spadina 8 37.97 39.37 12.51 0 1.9
Ontario Toronto Willowdale 26.56 53.16 6.65 11.13 0 2.24
Ontario Toronto York Centre 30.43 47.89 9.79 10.74 0 0.9
Ontario Toronto York South--Weston 19.58 51.6 17.82 10.03 0 0.72
Ontario Toronto York West 12.53 61.7 14.11 9.82 0 1.59
PEI ALL Cardigan 27.38 52.06 8 8.07 0 6.56
PEI ALL Charlottetown 28.13 48.32 12.67 8.98 0 1.46
PEI ALL Egmont 34.65 46.09 9.27 8.64 0 0.76
PEI ALL Malpeque 33.32 45.24 9.64 10.85 0 0.76

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Québec Eastern Bas-Richelieu-- 14.21 18.3 6.18 7.79 51.76 1.11
Townships Nicolet--Bécancour
Québec Eastern Brome--Missisquoi 13.51 30.17 7.42 8.62 37.19 2.44
Townships
Québec Eastern Compton--Stanstead 16.34 22.59 8.44 9.33 41.64 1.03
Townships
Québec Eastern Drummond 17.85 19.27 11.57 8.21 41.41 1.04
Townships
Québec Eastern Richmond-- 22.87 13.86 7.34 8.07 45.58 1.63
Townships Arthabaska
Québec Eastern Shefford 15.21 24.74 8.88 8.69 40.8 1.03
Townships
Québec Eastern Sherbrooke 11.73 19.74 10.37 6.5 49.28 1.73
Townships
Québec Laurentides Berthier--Maskinongé 18.9 20.03 8.01 8.4 42.91 1.1
Québec Laurentides Joliette 14.09 14.7 7.94 9.22 52.3 1.1
Québec Laurentides Laurentides--Labelle 9.92 25.16 7.58 8.92 46.59 1.19
Québec Laurentides Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 11.18 24.16 9.77 9.09 44.06 1.1
Québec Laurentides Montcalm 10.28 21.84 10.59 8.11 47.39 1.13
Québec Laurentides Repentigny 10.63 15.02 11.23 7.64 53.64 1.2
Québec Laurentides Rivière – des – Milles 14.35 18.17 9.87 9.17 46.82 0.98
– Îles
Québec Laurentides Terrebonne--Blainville 10.31 15.18 10.29 8.48 53.75 1.34
Québec Montérégie Beauharnois-- 16.51 16.2 9.19 8.19 48.29 0.98
Salaberry
Québec Montérégie Brossard--La Prairie 14 32.26 9.85 8.03 33.89 1.32
Québec Montérégie Chambly--Borduas 12.17 16.06 10.83 9.08 50.23 0.97
Québec Montérégie Châteauguay--Saint- 12.69 22.32 10.68 8.31 44.36 0.99
Constant
Québec Montérégie Longueuil--Pierre- 11.42 21.42 11.22 8.65 45.29 1.36
Boucher
Québec Montérégie Saint-Hyacinthe-- 18.28 13.9 10.29 8.31 47.42 1.15
Bagot
Québec Montérégie Saint-Jean 13.22 17.69 8.27 8.9 49.63 1.63
Québec Montérégie Saint-Lambert 11.38 28.55 11.08 8.58 38.57 1.19
Québec Montérégie Vaudreuil-Soulanges 16.27 25.79 7.57 8.91 39.55 1.25
Québec Montérégie Verchères--Les 11.65 15.08 11.01 8.1 52.34 1.18
Patriotes
Québec Montreal Ahuntsic 6.13 38.49 7.73 7.76 38.17 1.06
Québec Montreal Alfred-Pellan 11.64 28.59 9.27 8.44 39.99 1.42
Québec Montreal Bourassa 9.02 47.7 6.6 7.88 26.75 1.41
Québec Montreal Hochelaga 6.15 21.17 14.01 9.26 46.4 2.36
Québec Montreal Honoré-Mercier 10.44 42.03 8.49 7.99 29.07 1.34
Québec Montreal Jeanne-Le Ber 6.47 32.35 12.06 9.24 36.59 2.63
Québec Montreal La Pointe-de-l'Île 7.35 21.69 9.98 7.83 50.74 1.76

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Québec Montreal Lac-Saint-Louis 17.72 44.38 12.4 12.37 11.45 1.03
Québec Montreal LaSalle-- Émard 9.24 39.2 11.06 8.91 28.25 2.69
Québec Montreal Laurier--Sainte-Marie 1.59 21.36 14.92 12.13 46.72 2.63
Québec Montreal Laval 14.37 27.48 9.95 8.44 37.78 1.32
Québec Montreal Laval--Les-Îles 13.43 37.99 9.31 8.07 28.87 1.68
Québec Montreal Mount Royal 17.82 55.97 8.24 9.21 6.42 1.69
Québec Montreal Notre-Dame-de- 10.86 43.97 13.23 11.46 17.98 1.84
Grâce--Lachine
Québec Montreal Outremont 6.65 37.5 32.44 8.88 12.25 1.64
Québec Montreal Papineau 6.03 40.36 7.85 8.17 35.15 1.79
Québec Montreal Pierrefonds--Dollard 20.54 45.14 8.59 11.16 12.59 1.33
Québec Montreal Rosemont--La Petite- 3.3 18.68 13.65 10.01 51.83 1.88
Patrie
Québec Montreal Saint-Bruno--Saint- 11.21 22.06 10.67 8.76 45.2 1.45
Hubert
Québec Montreal Saint-Laurent-- 10.61 62.09 8.1 6.34 10.37 1.83
Cartierville
Québec Montreal Saint-Léonard--Saint- 9.4 58.34 8.86 7.58 13.48 1.69
Michel
Québec Montreal Westmount--Ville- 11.47 47.78 19.22 12.16 7.1 1.62
Marie
Québec Nord Abitibi--Baie-James-- 20.38 21.37 6.78 8.32 41.47 1.04
Nunavik--Eeyou
Québec Nord Abitibi-- 13.84 22.52 8.6 7.37 45.37 1.64
Témiscamingue
Québec Nord Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 24.76 20.82 6.32 7.61 38.77 1.08
Québec Nord Jonquière--Alma 42.41 13.53 4.87 6.18 31.21 1.15
Québec Nord Manicouagan 17.95 17.42 6.66 7.97 48.18 1.17
Québec Nord Rivière-du-Nord 10.73 13.8 10.78 8.25 54.24 1.55
Québec Nord Roberval--Lac-Saint- 35.57 11.79 4.4 7.46 39.09 1.04
Jean
Québec Nord Saint-Maurice-- 19.98 20.16 6.77 8.16 43.14 1.15
Champlain
Québec Nord Trois-Rivières 19.92 17.81 7.82 8.08 44.48 1.23
Québec Outaouais Argenteuil-- 14.9 20.57 9.36 8.68 44.69 1.15
Papineau--Mirabel
Québec Outaouais Gatineau 10.95 26.94 18.81 7.65 33.71 1.29
Québec Outaouais Hull--Aylmer 10.47 34.16 16.13 9.75 27.41 1.43
Québec Outaouais Pontiac 25.77 24.71 12.4 9.4 25.51 1.56
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauce 52.66 12.09 6.19 8.99 18.2 1.22
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauport--Limoilou 28.83 18.74 9.75 7.9 32.05 2.08
Québec Québec/Beauce Charlesbourg--Haute- 31.84 15.25 9.75 7.66 33.04 1.82
Saint-Charles
Québec Québec/Beauce Lévis--Bellechasse 38.83 14.41 8.19 8.04 26.81 3.07
Québec Québec/Beauce Lotbinière--Chutes- 42.7 12.29 9.91 7.77 25.3 1.37
de-la-Chaudière

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Hébert 22.34 21.73 9.23 7.68 36.38 1.99
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Saint-Laurent 39.65 13.88 8.11 7.78 28.14 1.79
Québec Québec/Beauce Mégantic--L'Érable 37.43 13.54 6.98 7.6 32.82 0.97
Québec Québec/Beauce Montmorency-- 21.19 16.81 6.65 7.9 45.76 1.04
Charlevoix--Haute-
Côte-Nord
Québec Québec/Beauce Portneuf--Jacques- 2.45 13.83 8.87 8.03 33.54 32.63
Cartier
Québec Québec/Beauce Québec 20.08 16.85 9.53 8.39 42.52 1.98
Québec Sud du Saint Gaspésie--Îles-de-la- 18.95 27.41 5.63 8 38.13 1.22
Laurent Madeleine
Québec Sud du Saint Haute-Gaspésie--La 15.27 31.63 4.82 8.06 37.43 2.15
Laurent Mitis--Matane--
Matapédia
Québec Sud du Saint Montmagny--L'Islet-- 25.86 20.16 5.26 7.85 38.88 1.35
Laurent Kamouraska--Rivière-
du-Loup
Québec Sud du Saint Rimouski-Neigette-- 13.61 20.6 8.98 7.14 44.98 4.04
Laurent Témiscouata--Les
Basques

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection January 21
Saskatchewan ALL Battlefords-- 54 11.92 19.74 8.81 0 5.28
Lloydminster
Saskatchewan ALL Blackstrap 46.27 25.55 17.32 9.74 0 0.86
Saskatchewan ALL Cypress Hills-- 56.58 16.88 14.27 10.18 0 1.84
Grasslands
Saskatchewan ALL Desnethé-- 43.94 31.3 14.84 8.42 0 1.26
Missinippi--Churchill
River
Saskatchewan ALL Palliser 38.3 20.23 31.49 9.02 0 0.71
Saskatchewan ALL Prince Albert 51.03 14.46 24.58 8.9 0 0.77
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Lumsden-- 41.89 21.72 25.72 9.27 0 1.14
Lake Centre
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Qu'Appelle 42.52 17.37 29.84 9.44 0 0.57
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon--Humboldt 44.27 16.44 25.45 9.91 0 3.68
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 41.06 9.22 39.39 8.72 0 1.35
Rosetown--Biggar
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 48.96 19.54 20.4 10.22 0 0.63
Wanuskewin
Saskatchewan ALL Souris--Moose 59.25 12.78 13.2 9.9 0 4.62
Mountain
Saskatchewan ALL Wascana 27.61 50.38 12.48 8.87 0 0.42
Saskatchewan ALL Yorkton--Melville 61.82 10.15 17.55 9.28 0 0.94
Yukon ALL Yukon 23.7 46 13.3 15.23 0 1.52

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local