Probability B (2015)

Assignment 2, ST112
Due Wednesday, March 4th, at 2pm!

1. Suppose that, on average, 3% of the purchasers of airline tickets do not appear for the departure of
their flight. Determine how many tickets should be sold for a flight on an airplane which has 400 seats,
such that with probability 0.95 everybody who appears for the departure of the flight will have a seat.
What assumption are you making?
2. Let X : R be a random variable, and let P be a distribution over such that, for some > 0, X has
a Poisson()distribution. Find a value of k which maximises the probabilities P(X = k), k = 0, 1, 2, . . .
For what values of is there a double maximum? What are the two values of k in that case? Is there
ever a triple maximum? Justify your answers.
3. A box contains 1000 balls, of which 2 are black and the rest are white.
a) Which of the following
fewer than 2 black balls,

exactly 2 black balls,

more than 2 black balls

is most likely to occur in 1000 draws with replacement from the box?
b) If two series of 1000 draws are made at random from this box, what, approximately, is the chance
that they produce the same number of black balls.
Justify your answers.
4. Suppose rain is falling at an average rate of 30 drops per square inch per minute. What is the
chance that a particular square inch is not hit by any drops during a given 10-second period? What
assumptions are you making?
5. A Geiger counter receives pulses at an average rate of 10 per minute. What is the probability of three
pulses appearing in a given half minute period? What assumptions are you making?
6. Let X be a random variable which has a Poisson()distribution. Calculate, showing the steps of your
calculation,
1
).
a) E(3X + 5); b) V ar(3X + 5); c) E(
1+X
Please attach a filled in cover sheet to your work and put it into the box marked with your tutors
name next to the first floor entrance of the Statistics Dept. no later than Wed, 4 March, 2pm.
Your mark on this assignment counts for 5% of the total credit on ST112.
Remember that although you should feel free to discuss this assessment with other students, the work
you submit should be your own.