Statistical Inference

Probability Distributions
Definition:
A probability distribution is a table, formula, or graph that describes the values of a random variable and the
probability associated with these values.

Random Variable:

A random variable is a function or rule that assigns a number to each outcome of an experiment. Basically
it is just a symbol that represents the outcome of an experiment.
X = number of heads when the experiment is flipping a coin 20 times.
C = the daily change in a stock price.
R = the number of miles per gallon you get on your auto during a family vacation.
Y = the amount of medication in a blood pressure pill.

Two Types of Random Variables

Discrete Random Variable

One that takes on a countable number of values this means you can sit down and list all possible
outcomes without missing any, although it might take you an infinite amount of time.
X = values on the roll of two dice: X has to be either 2, 3, 4, …, .
Y = number of accidents on the in Karachi during a week: Y has to be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or any
real big number

Continuous Random Variable

one that takes on an uncountable number of values (time, weight, distance, etc )– this means you
can never list all possible outcomes even if you had an infinite amount of time.
X = time it takes you to drive home from class: X > 0, might be 30.1 minutes measured to the
nearest tenth but in reality the actual time is 30.10000001…………………. minutes?)

Types of Probability Distributions

1. Discrete Probability Distributions: Assigns probabilities to the individual outcomes

2. Continuous Probability Distributions: Assigns probability of ranges

Types of Discrete Probability Distributions

Binomial Probability Distribution

It has following characteristics

A. Fixed number of trials.

B. These trials are independent.
C. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into two categories (e.g. Success or Failure)
D. The probability of success remains constant for all trials.

Formula:

P = nCx × px × (1 – p)n-x

Where
n = Fixed number of trials
x = Favorable number of trials
 p = Probability of success

Solved Example

A gardener has seeds saved from last year. She knows that each seed has probability 0.6 of growing
successfully, and therefore probability 0.4 of failing. If she plants 10 seeds, what is the probability they all
grow. What is the probability exactly 7 growing?
P = 10C10 (0.6)10 (1 – 0.6)10-10
P = 0.0060

P = 10C7 (0.6)7 (1 – 0.6)10-7

P = 0.2149

Exercise

Q1. Shafiq is a basketball player who takes a lot of free throws. The probability of Shafiq making a shot on
free throw is 0.60 on each throw. With 3 free throws what is the probability that he makes 2 shots?

Q2. Flipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of
obtaining at least 2 heads?

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Q3. In the month of February at a ski resort, the probability of snow on any day is . What is the probability
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that snow will fall on at most 2 days of a weeklong trip to that ski resort in February?

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Q4. If the probability of winning a game is , then find the probability of winning exactly 3 games out of 4
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played?

Q5. In a family of six children, what is the probability that exactly one child is female?

Q6. In basketball, Nicole makes 4 baskets for every 10 shots. If she takes 3 shots, what is the probability that
exactly 2 of them will be baskets?

Q7. A spinner is divided into five equal sectors labeled 1 through 5. What is the probability of getting at most
two prime numbers in three spins?

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Q8. The probability of the Mets winning a game against the Diamondbacks is . If they are playing a three-
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game series this weekend, what is the probability that the Mets will win at least 2 out of 3 games?

Q9. In a manufacturing process, the probability of a unit being defective is 0.05. Suppose we sample 10 of
these units. Find the probability that

A. Exactly 3 of the units are defective.

B. Less than 2 units are defective.
C. At least 1 unit is defective.

Q10. If 20% of all automobiles in a large city are foreign-made, find the probability that if there are eight
automobiles in a parking lot, three are foreign-made.
Negative binomial Probability Distribution

It has following characteristics

A. Each repetition is called a trial.

B. For each trial there are two mutually exclusive (disjoint) outcomes: success or failure
C. The probability of success is the same for each trial of the experiment
D. The trials are independent
E. The trials are repeated until r successes are observed, where r is specified in advance.

Formula:

P = n-1Cx-1 × px × (1 – p)n - x

Example:

Bob is a high school basketball player. He is a 70% free throw shooter. That means his probability of
making a free throw is 0.70. During the season, what is the probability that Bob makes his third free throw
on his fifth shot?

P = n-1Cx-1 × px × (1 – p)n - x

P = 5-1C3-1 (0.7)3 (1 - 0.7)5-3

P = 0.18522

Exercise

Q1. The drilling records for an oil company suggest that the probability the company will hit oil in productive
quantities at a certain offshore location is 0.3. Suppose the company plans to drill a series of wells looking
for three successful wells.

A. What is the probability that the third success will be achieved with the 8th well drilled?
B. What is the probability that the third success will be achieved with the 20th well drilled?

Q2. It is reported that 10% of the apples from the Apple Farm are bad. If apples are randomly selected from
this farm one after another, what is the probability that the 10th apple selected will be the 2nd bad apple
selected?

Q3. Bob is a high school basketball player. He is a 70% free throw shooter. That means his probability of
making a free throw is 0.70. During the season, what is the probability that Bob makes his third free throw
on his fifth shot?

Q4. The probability that a person living in a certain city owns a car is 0.3. Find the probability that the 10 th
person randomly interviewed in this city is the 5th one to own a car?

Q5. If the probability is 0.40 that a child exposed to a certain disease will catch it, what is the probability that
the tenth child exposed to the disease will be the third to catch it?

Q6. A large lot containing 10% defective items. If items are drawn sequentially (item-by-item), what is the
probability that the second defective is observed on the 5th item ?
 Multinomial Probability Distribution

It has the following characteristics

A. an extension of the binomial experiment

B. consists of n identical independent trials
C. which result in one and only one of k outcomes
D. the probability that the outcome of a single trial will fall in category i is pi (i = 1, 2, ... k);
E. want to determine the number of observation (x1, x2,... xk) falling in the k classification categories
F. The experiment consists of n identical, independent trials
G. There are only k possible outcomes on each trial
H. The probability of the k outcomes, denoted by p1, p2, ... pk, remain the same from trial to trial;
Note: p1+p2+ ... + pk=1
I. The random variables of interest are the counts x1, x2, ...xk in each of the k classification categories

Formula

P = ×(p1)x1×(p2)x2×(p3)x3×….×(pk)xk

Example

A local gas station sells three types of gasoline; regular, premium and super. According to past sales, about
60% customers use regular fuel, 30% put premium fuel, and rest 10% buy super. For next 10 customers,
find the probability that 5 buy regular gas, 4 buy premium gas, and 1 buy super gas.

P = × (0.6)5 × (0.3)4 × (0.1)1

P = 0.0794

Q1. For a certain airport containing three runways it is known that in the ideal setting the following are the
probabilities that the individual runways are accessed by a randomly arriving commercial jet:
Runway 1: p = 2/9, Runway 2: p = 1/6 and Runway 3: p = 11/18
What is the probability that 6 randomly arriving airplanes are distributed in the following fashion? Runway
1: 2 airplanes, Runway 2: 1 airplane, Runway 3: 3 airplanes.
Ans: 0.1128
Q2. The probability that a person will have 0, 1, or 2 dental checkups per year is 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3, respectively.
If seven people are picked at random, what is the probability that two will have no checkups, four will
have one checkup, and one will have two checkups in the next year?
Ans:0.0788
Q3. A certain company produces widgets. It is known that 80% of widgets produced by this company have no
defects, 15% have exactly one defect, and 5% have more than one defect. If ten of these items are selected
at random, find the probability that 6 have no defects, 2 have exactly one defect and 2 have more than one
defect.

Q4. In a recent three-way election for a large country, candidate A received 20% of the votes, candidate B
received 30% of the votes, and candidate C received 50% of the votes. If six voters are selected randomly,
what is the probability that there will be exactly one supporter for candidate A, two supporters for
candidate B and three supporters for candidate C in the sample?
 Hypergeometric Probability Distributions
It has the following characteristics
A. the trials are not independent
B. probability of success changes from trial to trial

Formula

 k  N  k 
 x  n  x 
  
P=
 
N
 
n
where
k = the possible number of successes in population
N = population size
n = the number of trials (sample size)
x = the number of successes in n trials

Example
A particular state finance committee has four Democrats and five Republicans. The governor has selected
four members from this committee to serve on a special task force. What are the chances that all four
members will come from Democratic Party?

 4 9  4
 4 4  4
   
P=
 
9
 
 4

P = 0.0079

Exercise

Q1. At an office party, names are drawn out of a hat to pick four-person teams for charades. There are 10
females and six males at the party. What is the probability that the team consists of two males and two
females?

Q2. A cookie jar contains five chocolate chip cookies and four peanut butter cookies. If you were to reach into
the cookie jar (without looking and select three cookies, one at a time, without replacement. What is the
probability that at least two of the cookies will be chocolate chip?

Q3. Bob has removed two dead batteries from a flashlight and inadvertently mingled them with the two good
batteries he intended as replacements. The four batteries look identical. Bob now randomly selects two of
the four batteries. What is the probability he selects the two good batteries?

Q4. After shipping 25 parts to a retailer, the manufacturer realized that 5 were defective. Four parts had already
been sold from the store. Find the probability that three of the four were good.
Q5. Of the 12 managers, seven are female. If the company needs to send three managers to a conference, find
A. P(all three are female)
B. P(at most one is female).

Q6. Suppose that a fuse box containing 20 fuses of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random
without replacement, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?