Group Assignment

Submit the answers handwritten. One submission per group. Upload scanned copy of the answers as a
single pdf file on moodle. If you are part of group number 3 of Section A, name the file
Sec_A_group_3.pdf, and likewise. Ensure that the names of all group members are specified and legible
on the first page of the scanned document.

1. A person can subscribe to at most 5 different credit cards. Find the total number of ways in which
a person can subscribe to 1 or more of the credit cards. With probability p=0.3, a person
subscribes to a credit card. This probability is independent of whether he has subscribed to other
cards or not. Given that a person has subscribed to 1 or more cards what is the probability that the
person subscribes to exactly 2 credit cards.

2. A six-faced die has 2 faces numbered 1, 2 faces numbered 2, and the other two faces are
numbered 3 and 4. Assume that all faces are equally likely to occur. If the die is thrown once
write down the sample space. Are the outcomes equally likely? If the die is thrown twice write
down the sample space and find the probability that the sum of the faces is 4.

3. In a factory, there are three machines 1, 2, 3, producing 50%, 30%, 20% respectively of the total
output. Out of the items produced by machine 2, four percent are defectives. The corresponding
figure for machine 3 is 6%. The following is known:

“If an item is drawn at random from the production line and found to be defective then the
conditional probability for this item to be produced by machine 1 is 0.50”.

What is the proportion of defective items among those produced by machine 1?

4. An anti-aircraft gun can fire up to a maximum of four shots at an enemy plane moving away from
it. If the probabilities of hitting the plane at the first, second, third and fourth shots are 0.4, 0.3,
0.2 and 0.1 respectively, what is the probability that the gun is able to hit the plane? Given that
the plane is hit, what is the conditional probability that at least three shots are needed for this
purpose?

5. A manufacturer makes shafts for electric motors. The external diameter is normally
distributed with mean 1 inch and SD .001 inch. The manufacturer purchases
bushings which the shaft passes through. The internal diameter of the hole in the
bushing is normally distributed with mean 1.002 inch and sd .001. When the shaft is
put in the bushing the clearance is defined as the diameter of the hole in the bushing
minus the diameter of the shaft. Negative clearance means the shaft does not fit.

a. For a shaft and bushing selected at random, what is the probability that
the shaft does not fit?

b. To operate properly the clearance should be between .0016 and .0048 inch.
What fraction of the assembled units will be in this range?
 c. Suppose the expected diameter of the shaft can be altered by a suitable
machine adjustment. What should be the expected diameter of the shaft so
that the probability of clearance being in the desired range is maximized?

6. The number of years a radio functions is exponentially distributed with mean = 8

years.

a. What is the probability that it will still be working after 8 years.

b. A person bought this radio who has been using it for the past 10 years, in
which time it has never failed. What is the probability that it will not fail for
8 more years?

7. In a survey, probability that a person responds to a questionnaire is 0.4. Assume that responding
behaviour of each person is independent of others.
a. What is the probability that out of 20 questionnaires at least 12 will be returned?
b. How many questionnaires need to be mailed if we want to ensure that there is a 95%
probability that at least 100 will be returned?

8. A coin is tossed 3 times in a row independently. Let us assume that probability of heads = p and
probability of tails=1-p and that these probabilities do not change from one toss to another toss. .
a. Write down the sample space for the experiment and the probabilities for each outcome.

We define the following random variables:

X= Number of heads minus number of tails.

Y= Minimum (number of heads, number of tails).
b. Write down the values taken by X and Y for each outcome in the sample space.
c. Write down the joint distribution of X and Y.
d. Write down the marginal distributions of X and Y.
e. If p=.5, what is Covariance (X,Y)?
f. If p=.5, are X and Y independent?.

9. A company aims to sell as many CDs as possible over the next 30 days. There are two types of CDs,
viz (i) classical music and (ii) rock music. The company found from the past data that on a randomly
chosen day, the probability distribution of the number of music CDs sold of each type is as shown below.
The sales of CDs across different days and types are independent.

Number of Classical
Music CDs sold in a day 0 500 1000
Probability 0.1 0.2 0.7

Number of Rock Music

CDs sold in a day 0 1000 2000

Probability 0.2 0.3 0.5

a. Find the probability distribution of the total number of music CDs (i.e. classical + rock) sold on a
randomly chosen day.

b. What is the expected value and standard deviation of the total number of CDs that will be sold in
the next 30 days?

c. Using Central Limit Theorem, find the probability that the company will be able to sell at least
70000 CDs in the next 30 days?

10. A 6-faced die is independently thrown 10 times. Each throw leads to one of the outcomes viz.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, depending on the face that shows up. In each throw, the occurrence of face 2 is
twice as likely as face 1, occurrence of face 3 is thrice as likely as face 1, and in general
occurrence of face i is i-times as likely as face 1, for i=2,3,4,5,6. Define the following random
variables:

X1 = value of the face that shows up in the first throw.

(For example, if face 2 shows up in the first throw, then X1=2. If face 6 shows up in the first
throw, then X1=6). Similarly, X2 = value of the face that shows up in the second throw. In
general, let Xj = value of the face that shows up in the jth throw, for j=1,2,…, 10. Let X= the sum
of the outcomes from the 10 independent throws of the die.

i.e., X= X1+ X2+ … +X10

a) Write down the p.m.f. for the random variable Xj.

b) What is E[Xj] and variance[Xj]
c) What is E[X] and Variance[X]?
d) What is P(X=10)?