TRAFFIC ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHOD IN TRAFFIC ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHOD

Poisson Distribution Normal Distribution

Binomial Distribution

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Consider an observation in which a particular result may or may not vehicle break a speed limit. For example, a number of vehicle is observation and it may be acceptable or not be acceptable speed limit

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
EXAMPLE ( All Units in km/h) 63, 63, 55, 58, 68, 61, 68, 63, 55, 62, 72, 57, 61, 68, 78, 64, 63, 51, 59, 75, 70, 74, 58, 69, 65, 66, 58, 72, 74, 75, 60, 73, 69, 57, 63, 65, 72, 59

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
nC k

pk q n-k

p = the probability is acceptable or occur q = the probability is not acceptable or occur = 1p n = number of observation k = frequency

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Let say, speed limit that particular road is 60 km/h. Probability vehicle not break speed limit, p = 11 / 38 = 0.285 The first 10 vehicles observe, only 2 vehicle not break speed limit

So, n = 10 and k = 2

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
P (vehicle not break speed limit) = nCk pk q n-k = 10C2 0.2852 0.715 10-2 = 45 ( 0.082) (0.0683)

= 0.252
= 25.2 %

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Know as counting distribution. It has the clear physical meaning of a number of events X occurring in a specified counting interval of duration T Indeed, the Poisson would have been a suitable approximation to the low p, high n cases in the preceding subsection

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

P( X = r ) = e - r / r! = Mean of distribution

Example Probability driver drive 54km/h from group data, = 64.579 km/h, P( X = 54 ) = e -64.579 64.57954 / 54! = 8.987x10-29 5.558x1097/2.308x1071 = 0.0216 = 2.16 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

A variable which can take on any value within a given range is called a continuous variable. The normal distribution allows us to calculate the probability of continuous variable falling within a particular range of value

The normal probability density function is a bellshaped curve

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Z = (x ) / = mean = standard deviation

NORMAL DISTRIB UTION

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Single operation P (x < a) Direct Read From Table (DRT) P (x > a) (1 DRT) P (x < -a) ( 1 DRT) P (x > -a) (DRT)

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
For Example group data, = 65 and = 7 Z = (x ) / P (x < 54) = P (Z < (54 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z < -11 / 7) = P ( Z < -1.57) = 1 0.9418 = 0.0582 = 5.82 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

P (x > 54) = P (Z > (54 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z > -11 / 7) = P ( Z > -1.57) = 0.9418 = 94.18 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

P (x < 74) = P (Z < (74 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z < 9 / 7) = P ( Z < 1.29) = 0.9015 = 90.15 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

P (x > 74) = P (Z > (74 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z > 9 / 7) = P ( Z > 1.29) = 1- 0.9015 = 0.0985 = 9.85 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Double operation

a < x < b P ( x < b) P (x < a) DRT - DRT -a < x < b P( x < b) P (x < -a) DRT - (1-DRT) -a < x < -b P ( x < -b) P ( x < -a) (1 DRT) (1 DRT)

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
P(54 < x < 74) = P( Z<(74-65)/7) P(Z<(54-65)/7) = P ( Z < 1.29) P (Z < -1.57) = 0.9015 - (1 - 0.9418 ) = 0.9015 - 0.0582 = 0.8433 = 84.33 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
P( 70< x <74) = P( Z<(74-65)/7) P(Z<(70-65)/7) = P ( Z < 1.29) P (Z < 0.71) = 0.9015 - 0.7611 = 0.1404 = 14.04 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
P(54< x<60) = P( Z<(60-65)/7) P(Z<(54-65)/7) = P ( Z < -0.71) P (Z < -1.57) = (1 - 0.7611) - (1 - 0.9418 ) = 0.2389 - 0.0582 = 0.1807 = 18.07 %