Chapter 2

Basic Probability
Concepts
0401506

Dr. Samer Barakat

Outline

Events and Probability

Characteristics of Probability Problems
Calculation of Probability

Elements of Set Theory

Definitions
Combination of Events
Operational Rules

Mathematics of probability
Basic Axioms of Probability; Additional Rule
Conditional Probability; Multiplication Rule
Theorem of Total Probability
Bayes Theorem

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Sample spaces

Random experiment: An experiment that can result

in different outcomes even though it is repeated in
the same manner every time.
Probability: numerical measure of the likelihood of
occurrence of an event relative to a set of
alternative events.
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a
random experiment. The sample space is denoted
as S.
Importance of sample space:
To model and analyze a random experiment, we
must understand the set of possible outcomes
(Possibility Space) from the experiment, i.e., an
appropriate description of the sample space.
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Sample spaces (Cont.)

A sample space is discrete if it consists of
a finite or countable infinite set of
outcomes.
A sample space is continuous if it
contains an interval (either finite or
infinite) of real numbers.
Representation of sample spaces:
(1) Sample space sets.
(2) Tree diagram.

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Sample space sets (Examples)

Coin Toss:
S = {H, T}
Roll Single Dice: S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Drive time: S = { t : 0 t } = [o, ]
Flip 2 coins: S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Picking up two parts from a product
batch: S = {gg, gd, dg, dd}

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Sample spaces (Example E2.1)

Purchase

3 Bulldozers and:
Classify Bulldozer after 6 months as good G or Bad B
S = {GGG,GGB, GBB,BBB,BGG,BBG,GBG,BGB}
You are only interested in the number of OPERATING
BULLDOZERS after 6 months
S = {0, 1, 2, 3}

what is the probability that there will be only 1

bulldozer left operative in 6 months if there is a 50%
chance that it can last at least 6 months without
breakdown.

E = { GBB,BGB, BBG }
Probability = 3X1/8 = 3/8

i.e., a sample space is often defined based on the

objectives of the analysis.
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Dr. Samer Barakat

Sample spaces (Example E2.2)

In designing a left-turn lane for

eastbound
traffic
at
a
highway
intersection, as shown below, the
probability of 5 or more cars waiting for
left turns may be needed to determine
the length of the left-turn lane. For this
purpose, suppose that over a period of 2
months 60 observations were made
(during periods of heavy traffic) of the
number of eastbound cars waiting for
left turns at this intersection, with the
following results.

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Dr. Samer Barakat

No
of
Cars

No. of
Obs.

R.
Freq.

4/60

16

16/60

20

20/60

14

14/60

3/60

2/60

1/60

Tota
l

60
7

Sample spaces (Example E2.2)

On the basis of the foregoing

results, the observed relative
frequency = probability of a
particular number of cars waiting
for left turns.
Then the probability of the Event, E
= "5 or more cars waiting" is
P(E)=2/60 + 1/60 + 0 = 3/60

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Calculation of Probability

Probability theory is concerned with

determining the long-run frequency of
the occurrence of an event.
How do we assign probabilities to events?
There are three basic approaches to this
problem:
Theoretical based on prior assumptions
Empirical based on observation
Both based on assumptions with
experimental observations, Bayes
theorem.
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Dr. Samer Barakat

Elements of Set Theory

Definitions
Sample space: the set of all possibilities in a
probabilistic problem
Sample point: each of the individual
possibilities.
Sample spaces may be discrete or continuous.
In the discrete case, the sample points are
individually discrete entities and countable; in
the continuous case, the sample space is
composed of a continuum of sample points.
An event is a subset of the sample space of a
random experiment.
We might be interested in describing new
events from combinations of existing events.
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Elements of Set Theory

A discrete sample space may be

finite (that is, composed of a finite
number of sample points), E2.1.
infinite (that is, with a countably infinite
number of sample points), E2.2.
In a continuous sample space, the
number of sample points is effectively
always infinite, location of traffic
accident, Bearing capacity of soil.

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Special Events

Impossible event, , is the event with no

sample point. It is therefore an empty set
in a sample space.
Certain event, S, is the event containing
all the sample points in a sample space;
that is, it is the sample space itself.

Complementary event,E . For an event E

in a sample space S, the
complementary event contains all the
sample points in S that are not in E.
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Venn diagrams
Venn Diagrams:
Graphical means to portray relationships
between sets, and to describe relationships
between events.
The random experiment is represented as the
points in the rectangle S. The events A (& B, )
are the subsets of points in the indicated
regions.

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S
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C
A

Three Events A, B, and C and Sample Space

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Combination of Events
Union of events A and B (A B) (read A or B)
is the event consisting of all outcomes that are either in A or
in B or in both events.

S
A

B
A B

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Intersection: of events A and B, A B

(read A and B, AB, is the event consisting
of all outcomes that are in both A and B.

A B

Events and Sample Space

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Sets (Cont.)
Mutually exclusive events:
If two events, A and B have no outcomes in
common, they are said to be mutually
exclusive or disjoint events. This means that
if one of them occurs, the other cannot.
A B = , [ = the empty set]
Example:
making right turn and left turn at a street
intersection;
flood and drought of a river at a given instant of
time;
failure and survival of a structure to a strong motion
earthquake.
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Mutually exclusive events:

A B = AB =
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Sets (Cont.)
Collectively exhaustive events:

Two or more events are collectively

exhaustive if the union of all these events
constitute the underlying sample space.

A B = S, [S = the sample space]

Example:
Two companies are the
only bidders
A
competing for the
same job.

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Operational Set RulesA A A

intersection
union
belong to or
contained in
contains

Equality of sets

A A A
A
A A
A S S
A S A
A A S
A A

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Set Rules (Cont.)

Commutative rule

Associative rule

Distributive rule

A B B A
A B B A
A B BA

A B C A B C
AB C A BC
A B C AC BC
AB C A C B C
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Set Rules (Cont.)

De Morgans theorem:

A B A B
E1 E 2 E 3 ... E n E1 E 2 E 3 ...E n
E1E 2 ...E n E1 E 2 ... E n
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Example 2.9
The water supply for a city C comes from two sources A and
B. The water is transported by a pipeline consisting of
branches 1, 2, and 3, as shown below. Assume that either
source alone is sufficient to supply the water for the city.
Define the two events shortage of water and no shortage.
Solution
Denote
E1 = failure of branch 1
E2 = failure of branch 2
E3 = failure of branch 3
Then shortage of water in the city
would be caused by E1E2 E3.
Therefore, de Morgan's rule, no shortage means
E1E2 E3 = (E1 E2)E3
In which (E1 E2) ) means the availability of water' at the
junction, and E3 means no failure of branch 3.

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Examples 2.3-2.4,2.6,2.12

Consider SS beam AB, Show:

The sample space of the reaction RA.
The sample space of RA and RB (that is, all
possible pairs of values of RA and RB);

a) If a concentrated load of 100 kN can be placed

only at any of the 2-m interval points on the beam.
b) If the load can be placed anywhere along the
beam.
c) The load can be 100 kN, 200 kN, or 300 kN, and
its position can be at any 2-m interval on the beam.
100 kN
d) If the load can be
B
any value between 100 A
and 300 kN.
20 m

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Solution

100 kN
B

20 m

a) RA ={0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100} discrete S
b) 0 <RA< 100 continuous S
c) RA= {0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,120,140,150,160,180,
200, 210, 240,270,300} discrete S

d) 0 <RA< 300

continuous S

100

300

300

200

100

100
100

100
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300

100

300
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Interpreting probabilities
Probability for discrete sample spaces:

Probability is used to quantify the likelihood, or

chance, that an outcome of a random
experiment will occur.
This is quantified by assigning a number from
the interval [0, 1] to the outcome (or a
percentage from 0 to 100%).
A 0 indicates an outcome will not occur. A
probability of 1 indicates an outcome will
occur with certainty.
Higher numbers indicate that the outcome is
more likely than lower numbers.
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Interpreting probabilities (Cont.)

Example: if we assign probability 0.1 to

the outcome that there is a corrupted
concrete cube in an experiment, if we
test many cubes, approximately 10% of
them will be corrupted.
The probability of an outcome is
interpreted as the limiting value of the
proportion of times the outcome occurs
in n repetitions of the random experiment
as n increases beyond all bounds.
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Interpreting probabilities (Cont.)

Probabilities are chosen so that the sum of

the probabilities of all outcomes in an
experiment add up to 1. This convention
facilitates the relative frequency
interpretation of probability.
Probabilities for a random experiment are
often assigned on the basis of a reasonable
model of the system under study.
e.g., Uniform probability model: Equally
likely outcomes.
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Interpreting probabilities (Cont.)

Example:

Suppose that we will select one concrete cube

randomly from a batch of 100. The sample
space is the set of 100 cubes.
Randomly implies that it is reasonable to
assume that each cube in the batch has an
equal chance of being selected.
When the model of equally likely outcomes is
assumed, the probabilities are chosen to be
equal.
Whenever a sample space consists of N
possible outcomes that are equally likely, the
probability of each outcome is: 1 / N
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Interpreting probabilities (Cont.)

For

a discrete sample space,

the probability of an event E,
denoted as P(E), equals the
sum of the probabilities of the
outcomes in E.

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Axioms of probability

Probability is a number that is assigned to each

member of a collection of events from a
random experiment that satisfies the following
properties:
If S is the sample space and E is any event in a
random experiment,
1. P(S) = 1
2. 1 P(E) 0
3. For two events E1 and E2 with E1 E2 = ,
(i.e., mutually exclusive)
P(E1 E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)
(the most important axiom)
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Axioms of probability (Cont.)

Axiom 1: Since an outcome from the

sample space occurs on every trial of an
experiment.
Axiom 2: i.e., relative frequency must be
between 0 and 1.
Axiom 3: If the events E1 and E2 have no
outcomes in common, the relative
frequency of outcomes in E1 E2 is the
sum of the relative frequencies of the
outcomes in E1 and E2
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Axioms of probability (Cont.)

Axioms do not determine probabilities

They enable us to easily calculate the
probabilities of some events from knowledge of
the probabilities of other events.

Important results

P() = 0
P() = 1 - P(E)
P(E) 1 for any event E
If event E1 is contained in the event E2 (E1 E2):
P(E1) P(E2)
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Joint events & Addition rules

Joint events are generated by applying

basic set operations to individual events.
Probability of a joint event can be
determined from probabilities of
individual events that comprise it.
C

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S
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Addition rule
Three or more events:
P(A B C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
- P(AB) - P(AC) - P(BC) + P(ABC)

B
A

C
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Examples 2.6,2.12

If the load can range between 100 and 300 kN, and
the probability of an event is proportional to its
"area" (this corresponds to the assumption that the
sample points, are equally likely)
If A = event {RA > 100 kN}
RB
If B = event {RB > 100 kN}
300

Find P(A), P(B), P(AB),P(A B)

Solution
Total area=0.5(3002-1002)=40000
100
P(A)=0.5(200)2/40000 = 0.5
P(B)=0.5(200)2/40000 = 0.5
P(AB)=0.5(100)2/40000 = 1/8
P(A B)={40000 - 0.5(100)2}/40000 = 7/8
P(A B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AB)=1/2+1/2-1/8=7/8

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A
100

300

RA

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Collection of mutually
exclusive events

Ei Ej = for all i and j

P(E1 E2 En) = P(E1) + P(E2 )+ P(En)

E2

E4

E3

E1

E5

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. En.

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Breaking down an event to mutually

exclusive events
E1
E1

E1 A
A

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Conditional probability;
Multiplication Rule

The probability of an event E1 may depend on the

occurrence (or non-occurrence) of another event E2. If this
dependence exists, the associated probability is a
conditional probability.
This is read as the conditional probability of E1 given E2,
denoted P(E1/ E2), means the likelihood of realizing a
sample point in E1assuming that it belongs to E2. Effectively,
in other words, we are interested in the event E1 within the
reconstituted sample space E2. Hence, with the
appropriate normalization, we obtain the conditional
probability of E1 given E2 as:

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Conditional probability;
Multiplication Rule

P (E1E 2 )
P ( E1 / E 2 )
P (E 2 )
E2

E1

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Multiplication Rule
P (E1E 2 ) P (E1 / E 2 )P (E 2 )
=P (E 2 / E1 )P (E1 )

Statistical independence.

If the occurrence (or nonoccurrence) of one

event E1 does not affect the probability of
another event E2, the two events are statistically
independent and

P ( E 1 / E 2 ) P ( E1 )

P ( E 2 / E1 ) P ( E 2 )
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Statistical independence.
P (E1E 2 ) P (E1 )P (E 2 )
P (E1E 2 ...E n ) P (E1 )P (E 2 )...P (E n )

Generalization.
P ( E 1E 2 E 3 ) P ( E 1 / E 2 E 3 ) P ( E 2 E 3 ) P ( E 1 / E 2 E 3 ) P ( E 2 / E 3 ) P ( E 3 )
P (E1E 2 E 3 ) P (E1E 2 / E 3 )P (E 3 )
P (E1 E 2 / A ) P (E1 / A ) P (E 2 / A ) P (E1E 2 / A )
P ( E 1E 2 / A ) P ( E 1 / E 2 A ) P ( E 2 / A )
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Example 2.13
Under the load F, the probabilities
of failure of the individual members
a, b, and c of the truss shown are
0.05, 0.04, and 0.03, respectively. The failure of any
member will constitute failure of the truss. Assuming
that failures of the individual members are
statistically independent.

Determine the failure probability of the truss.

Solution
Denoting the failure events of the three
members as A, B, and C, we have P(A)= 0.05,
P(B) = 0.04, and P(C) = 0.03.
Failure of Truss = AB C
No Failure = A B C = A B C
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Example 2.13 (cont.)

P(AB C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)-P(AB)-P(AC)P(BC)+P(ABC)
Statistical independence
P(E1E2)=P(E1)P(E2)
P(A B C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)-P(A)P(B)P(A)P(C)-P(B)P(C)+P(A)P(B)P(C)
P(A B C)=0.05+0.04+0.03-(0.05)(0.04)-

(0.05)(0.03)- (0.04)(0.03)+ (0.05)(0.04)(0.03)

= 0.11536

Or P(ABC)=1-

P(ABC )=1-P(ABC)
=1-(1-0.05)(1-0.04)(1-0.03) = 0.11536
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Total probability Theorem

Consider n mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events E1, E2, . . . , En;
that is, E1 E2 ... En. = S. Then if A is an
event also in the same sample space, we
have:
A = AS = A(E1 E2 ... En)

= A E1 AE2 ... AEn

P(A) = P(AE1) + P(AE2) + ... + P(AEn)
= P(A/E1)P(E1) + P(A/E2) P(E2)++P(A/En) P(En)

Total probability can be considered as weighted

average of the individual probabilities
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Collectively exhaustive events

E1, E2, . . . , En
A E1 , AE2 , ... , AEn
E1 E2 ... En = S.
A E1 AE2 ... AEn = A
E1

E2
A

E3

S
E4

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Bayes Theorem

If E1, E2, .., En are n mutually exclusive and

exhaustive events and A is any event:
if the event A occurred, what is the probability
that Ei also occurred
P ( A E i ) P ( A / E i )P ( E i )
=P (E i / A )P ( A )

P (E i / A )
=

P ( A / E i )P (E i )
P (A )

P ( A / E i )P (E i )
n

P (A / E
j 1

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Example 2.15
Consider again the
problem of three bulldozers,
Example 2.1
E
Let F = event that the first bulldozer is operational

after 6 months

E = 2 bulldozers are operational after 6 months

If the sample points are all equally likely

(P(G)=P(B)=1/2), then referring to the Venn diagram
shown, the conditional probability of E given F=

P(E/F) = P(EF)/P(F) = 2/4

P(F/E) = P(FE)/P(E)=2/3
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Example 2.15
If the sample points are not equally likely (P(G)=0.8 ,P(B)=0.2),
then referring to the Venn diagram shown, the conditional
probability of E given F=

P(GGG)=(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)=0.512
P(BBB)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)=0.008
P(GGB)=P(GBG)=P(BGG)=(0.8)(0.8)(0.2)=0.128
P(GBB)=P(BBG)=P(BGB)=(0.8)(0.2)(0.2)=0.032
P(F)=0.512+0.128+0.128+0.032=0.8
P(E)=0.128+0.128+0.128=0.374
P(EF)=0.128+0.128 =0.256
P(E/F) = P(EF)/P(F)
= 0.256/0.800=0.32
P(F/E) = P(FE)/P(E)
E
= 0.256/0.374=
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Example 2.17

Consider a chain system consisting of two links. If the applied

force is 100kN, it is obvious that any link in the chain will fail if
its strength is less l than 100kN. Suppose that the probability of
this happening to either link is 0.05.
What is the probability of failure of the chain?
Let E1 and E2 denote the failure of links 1 and 2, respectively.
The failure of the chain is
P(E1 E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1E2)
= P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E2/E1)P(E1)
=0.05+0.05-0.05P(E2/E1)

Assume statistical independence P(E2/E1)= P(E2)

P(E1 E2)= 0.05+0.05-0.05X0.05 = 0.0975
Assume identical strengths P(E2/E1)= 1.0
P(E1 E2)= 0.05+0.05-0.05X1.0 = 0.050 = failure of
one link
0.05 < P(E1 E2) < 0.0975 function of degree of correlation
between strengths of the two links.
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Example 2.20

The settlement problem of a steel frame may be idealized as

follows. A and B represent two footings resting on soil. Each
footing may either remain at the original level or settle 5 cm.
The probability of settlement in each footing is 0.1. However,
the probability that a footing will settle, given that the other
has settled, is 0.8.
Determine
(a) The possible conditions of the, two footings.
(b) Probability of settlement.
(c) Probability of differential settlement.
(a) The possible conditions of footings
AB
A settles, B settles
AB
A does not settle, B settles
AB
A settles, B does not settle
AB
A does not settles, B does not settle

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Example 2.20
(b) The probability of settlement (that is, either,
A or B will settle) is
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A)P(BIA)
=0.1 +0.1 -0.1 x 0.8 =0.12
(c) Denote event E =differential settlement (that
is, a difference in the level of the two footings),
E = {AB and AB}. Since these two events are
mutually exclusive,
P(E) = P(AB) + P(AB)= P(B)P(A I B)+ P(A)P(B I A)
= (0.1)(1-P(A/B))+(0.1)(1-P(B/A)
= (0.1)(0.2)+(0.1)(0.2)=0.04

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Example 2.24

The Figure below shows one direction of two

interstate highways I1 and I2 merging into I3.
Assume that I1 and I2 have equal capacities;
the rush-hour traffic, however, is somewhat
different, so that during rush hours
P(I1) = P (excessive traffic in I1) = 10%.
P(I2) = P (excessive traffic in I2) = 20%.
P(I1/I2) = P (excessive traffic in I1/ excessive traffic in I2) = 50%.
P(I2/I1) = P (excessive traffic in I2/ excessive traffic in I1) = 100%.

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(a) If the capacity of I3 is the same as that of I1 or I2,

what is the probability of excessive traffic in I3?
Assume that when I1 and I2 are carrying less than
their traffic capacities, I3 may be exceeded with
probability 20%.

Solution
First, we observe that this probability will depend on
the traffic conditions in I1 and I2, which may be,

I 1I 2 , I 1I 2 , I 1I 2 , I 1I 2
:
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with respective probabilities as follows

P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 1 / I 2 )P (I 2 ) 0.5 0.2 0.10

P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 1 / I 2 )P (I 2 ) [1 P (I 1 / I 2 )P (I 2 )]
0.5 0.2 0.10
P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 2 / I 1 )P (I 1 ) [1 P (I 2 / I 1 )P (I 1 )]
0
P (I 1I 2 ) 1 [P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 1I 2 )]
1 (0.1 0.1 0) 0.8
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Example 2.24 (cont)

Clearly, the traffic in I3 will be excessive when the

traffic in I1 or 12, or both, is excessive.
Also, we have

P (I 3 / I 1I 2 ) 0.2
P (I 3 ) P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 )
P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 )
1.0(0.10) 1.0(0.10) 1.0(0) 0.2(0.80) 0.36
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Example 2.24 (cont)

(b) If the capacity of I3 is twice that of I1 or I2.

what is the probability of excessive traffic in I3?
Assume that if only I1 or I2 has excessive traffic,
the capacity of I3 may be exceeded with
probability of 15 %.
Furthermore, it is obvious that I3 will have excessive
traffic when I1 and I2 both have excessive traffic

P (I 3 / I 1I 2 ) P (I 3 / I 1I 2 ) 0.15
P (I 3 ) P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 )
P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 ) P (I 3 / I 1I 2 )P (I 1I 2 )
1.0(0.10) 0.15(0.10) 0.15(0) 0(0.80) 0.115
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Dr. Samer Barakat

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Example 2.28

Aggregates for construction are ordered from

two different companies. Company A delivers
600 loads each day, out of which 3 % do not
satisfy the specified quality.
Company B supplies 400 loads each day, out of
which only 1 % are substandard.
(a) What is the probability that a load of
aggregate picked at random came from`
company A?
(b) What is the probability that a load of
aggregate picked at random will not pass the
specified standard?
(c) If a load of aggregate was found to be
substandard, what is the probability that it came
from company A.
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Example 2.28, Solutions:

(a) Since there are altogether 1000 loads, out of which 600
came from company A, the probability that a load picked at
random comes from company A is
P(A)=600/1000 = 0.6
(b) The substandard aggregate may come from either
company A or company B. We may apply the theorem of total
probability to compute the probability of the event E, that is,
picking a load of substandard aggregate:
P(E) = P(E I A)P(A) + P(E I B)P(B)
= 0.03 x 0.6 + 0.01 x 0.4= 0.018 + 0.004 = 0.022
(c) If the load of aggregate picked at random is substandard,
the probability that it comes from company A is no longer 0.6
as in (a), because the sample space is changed. Instead of
1000 loads, the new sample space consists of only
substandard aggregate loads which is
0.03X600+0.01X400 = 18+ 4 = 22
P(A/the agg. Is substamdard) =18/22 = 0.818
Or =[P(E/A)P(A)]/P(E)= (0.03)(0.6)/[(0.03)(0.6)+(0.01)(0.4)]
= 0.818

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Dr. Samer Barakat

59