11

Statistics and Probability

for Senior High School
Quarter 1 – Module 1
Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Locally Developed Self-Learning Material

Statistics and Probability – Grade 11

Locally Developed Self-Learning Material

Quarter 2 – Lesson 1: Random Variables

Lesson 2: Probability Distributions for random variables
Lesson 3: Mean and Variance of a discrete random
variable and Expectation

Development Team of the Module

Writer: April Joy V. Albior

Editors: Ruel Emberga
Ramil G. Gonzales, PhD
Roderick A. Tadeo, PhD

Reviewers: Ruel D. Emberga

Corazon B. Dumlao

Management Team:
Leilani S. Cunanan, CESO V
Maylene M. Minimo, EdD, CESE
Ariel C. Lansang
Jose C. Tala EdD

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Pre- Assessment

Read each item carefully and choose the letter of the correct answer. Write your
answers on a separate sheet of paper.
1. Which of the following describes a discrete random variable?
a. An experiment in Chemistry is repeated many times and X is the time required
for a reaction to occur in seconds.
b. A student is randomly selected and X is the number of correct answers on a
two-question multiple choice quiz.
c. A UPS package is randomly selected and X is the weight in kilograms of the
package.
d. A student is randomly selected and X is the distance they must travel from
their dorm door to their classroom.
2. Which of the following describes a continuous random variable?
a. The time it takes for a student to complete an exam
b. The number of tattoos a randomly selected person has
c. The number of women taller than 68 inches in random sample of 5 women
d. The number of correct guesses on a multiple-choice test
3. Which of the following illustrates a probability distribution?
a.
X -2 0 2 4
P(X) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1
b.
X 0.5 0.25 0.15
P(X) -0.4 0.6 0.5
c.
X 1.1 2.5 4.1 4.6 5.3
P(X) 1/16 4/16 6/16 4/16 1/16
d.
X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 1/8 4/16 6/16 4/16 1/8

4. Given the following probability distribution where X is the number of heads in 4

tosses of a fair coin
Number of heads X 0 1 2 3 4
Probability P(X) 1/16 4/16 6/16 4/16 ?
What is the probability of getting 4 heads?
a. 1/16 c. 6/16
b. 4/16 d. 2/16
5. What is the probability of getting at least one head?
a. 1/16 c. 5/16
b. 4/16 d. 15/16
6. The expected value of a random variable is the
a. value that has the highest probability of occurring
b. mean value over an infinite number of observations of the variable
c. largest value that will ever occur
d. most common value over an infinite number of observations of the variable.
7. In a gambling game, on every play, there is a 0.1 probability that you win
P10,000 and a 0.9 probability that you lose P500. What is the expected value of
this game?
a. 450 c. -450

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 b. 550 d. -550
8. Ellen is taking 4 courses for the semester. She believes that the probability
distribution for X=the number of courses for which she will get an A grade is given
below:
X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.15 0.05
What is the expected number of A’s she will get?
a. 1.5 c. 1.75
b. 1.65 d. 1.85
9. What is the variance for the number of A’s she will get?
a. 0.9857 c. 0.9587
b. 0.9875 d. 0.9785
10. What is the standard deviation for the number of A’s she will get?
a. 0.9337 c. 0.9973
b. 0.9937 d. 0.9733

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Lesson 1: Random Variables

About the Lesson

This is an introductory lesson on random variables and its two types: the discrete
and continuous random variable.

Objective/Learning Competency
In this lesson you are expected to:
1. Illustrate a random variable (M11/12SP-IIIa-1)
2. distinguish between a discrete and a continuous random variable. (M11/12SP-
IIIa-2)
3. find the possible values of a random variable. (M11/12SP-IIIa-3)

Lesson Proper

I. Activity
Consider the following experiments, identify the possible outcomes/values.
a. Rolling a six-sided die
b. Tossing a fair coin
c. Heights of 15-year old boys
d. Duration of cellphone calls made by students

II. Questions to Ponder

1. What is a random variable?
2. How do we distinguish a discrete random variable from a continuous
random variable?

III. Example and Discussion

What is a random variable?

A random variable is a numerical quantity that is generated by a random experiment.

Random variables are denoted by capital letters, such as X or Z, and the actual values
that they can take are denoted by lowercase letters, such as x or z.

Below are examples of random variables and their possible values:

Random Experiment Random Variable X Possible Values of X

Rolling two fair dice
Flipping a fair coin
repeatedly
Measuring the voltage at
an electrical outlet
Operating a light bulb until
it burns out
Sum of the number of dots 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12
on the top faces
Number of tosses until the 1,2,3,4,…
coin lands heads
Voltage measured 118 ≤ x ≤ 122
Time until the bulb burns 0≤x<∞
out

In the table above, the first two examples represent a discrete random variable, while
the last two examples indicate a continuous random variable.

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A random variable is said to be discrete if it has either a finite or a countable number of
possible values. A random variable is said to be continuous if its possible values contain
a whole interval of numbers.

Other examples:

Discrete random variable

- Number of tails in 3 flips of a fair coin (possible outcomes are 0,1,0, 2, 3)
- Number of joggers in Remy Fields each day
- Number of phone calls received after a TV commercial airs

Continuous random variable

- Heights of individuals
- Temperature between 68º and 72º in a 24-hour period
- Time it takes for a jeepney to travel to a place

Remark: Discrete random variables are obtained from data that can be counted or
enumerated using the numbers 1,2 3, etc. while continuous random variables are
obtained from data that can be measured rather than counted.

IV. Exercises

State whether the variable is discrete or continuous.

1. The number of cheeseburgers a fast-food restaurant serves each day.

2. The number of people who play the lottery each day.
3. The weight of an automobile.
4. The time it takes to have a medical physical exam.
5. The blood pressure of all patients admitted to a hospital on a specific day.

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Lesson 2: Probability Distributions for random variables

About the Lesson

Computing probabilities and assigning possible outcomes of events are essential
in many decision-making in business, insurance, and other real-life situations. For
example, a salesman who computes for the probability of selling 0,1,2, or 3 products a
day can compute for his average weekly or monthly income. An insurance company
might be able to assign probabilities to the number of vehicles a family owns. The
company can use this information to plan and design special forms and programs for his
customers’ future needs.

This lesson will explain the discrete probability distribution which shows the
assignment of probabilities, followed by computing for the mean, variance and standard
deviation for the events.

Objective/Learning Competency
In this lesson you are expected to:
1. illustrate a probability distribution for a discrete random variable and its
properties. (M11/12SP-IIIa-4)
2. compute probabilities corresponding to a given random variable. (M11/12SP-
IIIa-6)

Lesson Proper

I. Activity

Suppose three coins are tossed, determine the sample space (list of possible
outcomes) of the experiment, if the random variable is X- the number of heads.
{ ________, ________, ________, ________, ________, ________, ________, _______ }

II. Questions to Ponder

1. How do we organize probabilities in an experiment?

III. Example and Discussion

Definition:
A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can
assume and the corresponding probabilities of the values. The probabilities are
determined theoretically or by observation.
Discrete probability distributions can be shown by using a graph or a table.

Example 1: Rolling a Die

Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single die.

Solution: Since the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5.6} and each outcome has a probability of
1/6, the distribution is as shown:

Outcome X 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

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Example 2: Tossing coins

Represent graphically the probability distribution for the sample space for tossing three
coins.

Number of heads X 0 1 2 3
Probability P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

Solution: The values that X assumes are located on the x-axis, and the values for P(X) are
located on the y-axis. The graph is shown below:

Two requirements for a Probability Distribution

1. The sum of the probabilities of all events in the sample space must equal 1, that
is, ∑ 𝑃(𝑋) = 1.
2. The probability of each event in the sample space must be between or equal to
0 and 1. That is, 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝑋) ≤ 1.

Examples: Determine whether each distribution is a probability distribution.

a.
X -2 0 2 4
P(X) 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.3
b.
X 4 8 12
P(X) -0.5 0.6 0.4
c.
X 1 2 3 4 5
P(X) 1/4 1/8 3/8 1/8 1/8
d.
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
Solution:
a. No, because the sum of the probabilities is greater than 1.
b. No. One of the probabilities is less than 0
c. Yes. The sum of the probabilities of all the events is equal to 1. Each probability is
greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.

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 d. Yes. The sum of the probabilities of all the events is equal to 1. Each probability is
greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.

Example 3: Computing for Probabilities

A pair of dice is rolled. Let X denote the sum of the number of dots on the top faces.
a. Construct the probability distribution of X.
b. Find P(X ≥ 9).
c. Find the probability that X takes an even value.

Solution:

The sample space of equally likely outcomes is

(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
{(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

a. The possible values for X are the numbers 2 to 12. X=2 is the event {(1,1)}, so
1 2
P(2)=36, X=3 are the events {(1,2), (2,1)}, so P(3)=36. Continuing this way, we
obtain the probability distribution table

X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(X) 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

b. The event X ≥ 9 is the sum of the mutually exclusive events X=9, X=10, X=11, and
4 3 2 1 5
X=12. Thus P(X ≥ 9)=P(9)+P(10)+P(11)+P(12)= + + + =
36 36 36 36 18
1 3 5 5 3 1 18
c. P(X is even)= P(2)+P(4)+P(6)+P(8)+P(10)+P(12)= + + 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 = 36 = 0.5
36 36

IV. Exercises

Construct a probability distribution for the data and draw a graph for the distribution.

1. Medical Tests. The probabilities that a patient will have 0,1,2 or 3 medical tests
6 5 3 1
performed on entering a hospital are 15, 15, 15 and 15, respectively.
2. Investment Returns. The probabilities of a return on an investment of P10,000,
P20,000, P30,000, and P40,000 are 0.35, 0.41, 0.15 and 0.09, respectively.
3. Let X denote the number of boys in a randomly selected three-child family.
Assuming that boys and girls are equally likely, construct the probability distribution
of X. Find the probability that there will be at least one boy in the family?

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Lesson 3: Mean and Variance of a discrete random variable

About the Lesson

The mean, variance, and standard deviation for a probability distribution are
computed differently from the mean, variance, and standard deviation for samples. This
lesson discusses the Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of a discrete probability
distribution, as well as the concept of expectation related to the mean of a probability
distribution.

Objective/Learning Competency
In this lesson you are expected to:
1. illustrates the mean and variance of a discrete random variable. (M11/12SP-
IIIb-1)
2. calculates the mean and the variance of a discrete random variable.
(M11/12SP-IIIb-2)
3. interprets the mean and the variance of a discrete random variable.
(M11/12SP-IIIb-3)
4. solves problems involving mean and variance of probability distributions.
(M11/12SP-IIIb-4)

Lesson Proper

I. Activity
The mean for a sample or population is computed by adding the values and
dividing by the total number of values as in the following formulas:
∑𝑋 ∑𝑋
Sample Mean: 𝑋̅ = 𝑛 Population Mean: 𝜇 = 𝑁

But how would you compute the mean of the number of dots that show on
top of a die when a die is rolled? You could try rolling the die, say 10 times,
recording the number of dots. However, this answer would only approximate
the true mean. In fact, the more times the die is rolled, the better the
approximation. Guess how many times must the die be rolled to get the exact
answer? _____________________________

II. Questions to Ponder

1. How do we compute for the mean, variance and standard deviation of a
discrete probability distribution?

III. Example and Discussion

In the previous activity, finding the true mean in the experiment will require an infinite
number of times rolling the die. But this task impossible, since from the formulas
presented, the denominator will be infinity. Hence, a new method of computing the
mean is necessary. This method gives the exact theoretical value of the mean as if it
were possible to roll the die an infinite number of times.

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 ➢ Mean

Formula for the Mean of a Probability Distribution

The mean of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is

𝜇 = 𝑋1 • 𝑃(𝑋1 ) + 𝑋2 • 𝑃(𝑋2 ) + 𝑋3 • 𝑃(𝑋3 ) + ⋯ + 𝑋𝑛 • 𝑃(𝑋𝑛 )
𝜇 = ∑ 𝑋 • 𝑃(𝑋)
Where 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , 𝑋3 , … , 𝑋𝑛 are outcomes and 𝑃(𝑋1 ), 𝑃(𝑋2 ), 𝑃(𝑋3 ), … , 𝑃(𝑋𝑛 ) are the
corresponding probabilities.

Example 1: Rolling a Die

Find the mean of the number of dots that appear when a die is tossed.
Solution:
Outcome X 1 2 3 4 5 6

Probability P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

1 1 1 1 1 1 21
𝜇 = ∑ 𝑋 • 𝑃(𝑋) = 1 • + 2 • + 3 • + 4 • + 5 • + 6 • = 𝑜𝑟 3.5
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
That is, when a die is tossed, many times, the theoretical mean will be 3.5. Note that
even though the die cannot show a 3.5, the theoretical average is 3.5.

Note: The rounding rule for the mean, variance and standard deviation for a
probability distribution is rounding to one more decimal place than the outcome X.
When fractions are used, they should be reduced in smallest terms.

➢ Variance and Standard Deviation

Recall that the mean of a random variable describes the theoretical average, but it
does not tell anything about the spread of the distribution.

Formula for the Variance and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution

To measure the spread of variability, we compute for the variance of a discrete

probability distribution using the following formula
𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2
The standard deviation of a probability is
𝜎 = √𝜎 2 = √∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2

Example 2: Compute the variance and standard deviation for the probability
distribution in Example 1.

Solution: Recall that the mean is 𝜇 = 3.5, as previously computed, square each
outcome and multiply by the corresponding probability, sum of those products, and
then subtract the square of the mean.

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 1 1 1 1 1 1
𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2 = (12 • + 22 • + 32 • + 42 • + 52 • + 62 • ) − (3.5)2
6 6 6 6 6 6
= 2.917

To get the standard deviation, find the square root of the variance.
𝜎 = √𝜎 2 = √2.917 ≈ 1.708

Hence, the standard deviation for rolling a die is 1.708.

Example 3. Selecting Numbered Balls

A box contains 5 balls. Two are numbered 3, one is numbered 4, and two are
numbered 5. The balls are mixed and one is selected at random. After a ball is
selected, its number is recorded. Then it is replaced. If the experiment is repeated
many times, find the variance and standard deviation of the numbers on the balls

Solution:
Let X be the number on each ball. The probability distribution is

Number on ball X 3 4 5
Probability P(X) 2/5 1/5 2/5

The mean is
2 1 2
𝜇 = ∑ 𝑋 • 𝑃(𝑋) = 3 • +4• +5• = 4
5 5 5

The variance is
2 1 2 4 4
𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2 = (32 • 5 + 42 • 5 + 52 • 5) − 42 = 16 5
− 16 = 5 𝑜𝑟 0.8

The standard deviation is

𝜎 = √𝜎 2 = √0.8 ≈ 0.894

➢ Expectation

Another concept related to the mean for a probability distribution is that of expected
value or expectation. Expected value is used in various types of games of chance, in
insurance, and in other areas, such as decision theory.

Formula for the Expected Value

The expected value of a discrete random variable of a probability distribution is the

theoretical average of the variable. The formula is
𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = ∑ 𝑋 • 𝑃(𝑋)
The symbol E(X) is used for the expected value.

The formula for the expected value is the same as the formula for the theoretical
mean. The expected value, then, is the theoretical mean of the probability
distribution. That is, E(X)= 𝜇. When expected value problems involve money, it is
customary to round the answer to the nearest centavos.

Example 4: Raffle Tickets

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 A student organization in a large school organizes a raffle each month, One thousand
raffle tickets are sold for P1 each. Each has an equal chance of winning. First prize is
P300, second prize is P200, and third prize is P100. Let X denote the net gain from the
purchase of one ticket.

Construct the probability distribution of X, and find the probability of winning any
money in the purchase of one ticket. Also, find the expected value of X and interpret
its meaning.

Solution:
Let X denote the net gain from the purchase of one ticket. If a ticket wins first prize,
then the net gain to the purchaser is X=300-1=299. There is one such ticket, hence,
P(299)=1/1000=0.001. Applying the same for the second the third prize winner, the
probability distribution is

Net gain X 299 199 99 -1

Probability P(X) 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.997

Let W denote the probability of winning any money in the purchase of one ticket,
then using the table above,

𝑃(𝑊) = 𝑃(299) + 𝑃(199) + 𝑃(99) = 0.001 + 0.001 + 0.001 = 0.003

Using the formula for the expected value,

𝐸(𝑋) = ∑ 𝑋 • 𝑃(𝑋) = (299)(0.001) + (199)(0.001) + (99)(0.001) + (−1)(0.997) = −0.4
The negative value means one loses money on the average. In particular, if
someone were to buy tickets repeatedly, then although he would win now and then,
on average, he would lose 40 cents per ticket purchased.

Example 5: Selecting Balls

Six balls numbered 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, and 13 are placed in a box. A ball is selected at

random, and its number is recorded and then it is replaced. Find the expected value
of the numbers that will occur.

Solution:
Since the balls are replaced, the probability for each number is , so the
probability distribution is

Number X 1 2 3 5 8 13
Probability P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
𝐸(𝑋) = 1 • + 2 • + 3 • + 5 • + 8 • + 13 • = 5
6 6 6 6 6 6 3

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 IV. Exercises

1. A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host is unable to talk (i.e., during a
commercial) or is talking to a person, the other callers are placed on hold. When all lines
are in use, others who are trying to call in get a busy signal. The probability that 0,1, 2, 3,
or 4 people will get through is shown in the probability distribution. Find the mean,
variance and standard deviation for the distribution.

X 0 1 2 3 4
Probability P(X) 0.18 0.34 0.23 0.21 0.04

Should the station have considered getting more phone lines installed? Why or why not?

2. A life insurance company will sell a P200,000 one-year term life insurance policy to an
individual in a particular risk group for a premium of P195. Find the expected value of the
company of a single policy if a person in the risk group has a 99.97% chance of surviving
one year.

Summary
A random variable is a numerical quantity that is generated by a random
experiment. A random variable is said to be discrete if it has either a finite or a countable
number of possible values. A random variable is said to be continuous if its possible values
contain a whole interval of numbers.
A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can
assume and the corresponding probabilities of the values. In a probability distribution
table, the sum of the probabilities of all events in the sample space must equal 1, that is,
∑ 𝑃(𝑋) = 1, and the probability of each event in the sample space must be between or
equal to 0 and 1, that is, 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝑋) ≤ 1.
The mean of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is
𝜇 = 𝑋1 • 𝑃(𝑋1 ) + 𝑋2 • 𝑃(𝑋2 ) + 𝑋3 • 𝑃(𝑋3 ) + ⋯ + 𝑋𝑛 • 𝑃(𝑋𝑛 )
𝜇 = ∑ 𝑋 • 𝑃(𝑋)
Where 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , 𝑋3 , … , 𝑋𝑛 are outcomes and 𝑃(𝑋1 ), 𝑃(𝑋2 ), 𝑃(𝑋3 ), … , 𝑃(𝑋𝑛 ) are the
corresponding probabilities.
To measure the spread of variability, we compute for the variance of a discrete
probability distribution using the following formula
𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2
The standard deviation of a probability is
𝜎 = √𝜎 2 = √∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2

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Post-Assessment

A. Classify each random variable as either discrete or continuous.

a. The number of arrivals at an emergency room between midnight and 6am.
b. The weight of a box of cereal labeled “18 ounces”.
c. The duration of the next outgoing telephone call from a business office.
d. The number of applicants for a job.
e. The temperature of a cup of coffee served at a restaurant.

B. A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution:

X 77 78 79 80 81
P(X) 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.40 0.10
Find the following probabilities:
a. P(80)
b. P(X>80)
c. P(X≤80)

C. In a hamster breeder’s experience, the number of live pups in a litter of a

female not over twelve months in age who had not borne a litter I the past
six weeks has the following probability distribution
X 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
P(X) 0.04 0.10 0.26 0.31 0.22 0.05 0.02
Compute the mean, variance and standard deviation of X. Interpret the
mean in the context of the problem.

D. Five thousand tickets are sold for P1 each. One ticket will win P1,000, two
tickets will win P500 each, and ten tickets will win P100 each. Let X denote
the net gain from the purchase of a randomly selected ticket. Then,
a. Construct the probability distribution of X.
b. Compute the expected value of X and interpret.
c. Compute the variance and standard deviation.

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Answer Key (it should be inverted)
Pre-Assessment Exercises: Lesson 1
1. B 1. discrete
2. A 2. discrete
3. C 3. continuous
4. A 4. continuous
5. D 5. continuous
6. B
7. B Lesson 3
8. C 1. 𝜇 = 1.59, 𝜎 2 = 1.262, 𝜎 ≈ 1.123
9. B 2. 𝐸(𝑋) = 135
10. B
Exercises:
Lesson 2

1.

2.
3.
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1 3 3 1
8 8 8 8

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References:

Bluman, Allan G. Elementary Statistics A Step By Step Approach, Ninth Edition, McGraw-
Hill Education, pp. 257-275

Malate, Jose S. Statistics & Probability for Senior High School, Vicarish Publications and
Trading, Inc.

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