Statistical Inference

Probability Distributions (cont……..)

Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution

Properties
A. Has more than two outcomes.
B. Repeat experiment n dependent trials. (Drawn without replacement)
C. Population is classified into more than two categories.

P=
where
N = n1 + n2 + …+nk
n = x1 + x2+ … +xk

Example

A group of 10 individuals is being used in a biological case study. The group contains 3 people with blood
type O, 4 with blood type A, and 3 with blood type B. what is the probability that a random sample of 5 will
contain 1 person with blood type O, 2 people with blood type A and 2 people with blood type B.

P = = 0.214285

Exercise

Q1. An unethical vendor has some defective computer merchandise that he is trying to unload. He has 26
computers. Of these, 12 are ok, 4 have bad motherboards, 2 have bad video cards, and 8 have bad sound
cards. If we go into buy 5 computers from this vendor, what is the probability we get 3 good computers, 1
with a bad sound card and 1 with a bad video card?

Q2. Suppose there are 5 black, 10 white, and 15 red marbles in an urn. You reach in and randomly select six
marbles without replacement. What is the probability that you pick exactly two of each color?

Q3. A car rental agency at a local airport has available 5 Fords, 7 Chevrolets, 4 Dodges, 3 Hondas, and 4 Toyotas.
If the agency randomly selects 9 of these cars to chauffeur delegates from the airport to the downtown
convention center, find the probability that 2 Fords, 3 Chevrolets, 1 Dodge, 1 Honda and 2 Toyotas are used.

Q4. A population of 100 voters consists of 40 republicans, 35 democrats and 25 independents. A random
sample of 10 voters is chosen. Find the probability that the sample contains 4 republicans, 3 democrats, and 3
independents.

Q5. A group of 10 individuals are used for a biological case study. The group contains 3 people with blood type
O, 4 with blood type A, and 3 with blood type B. What is the probability that a random sample of 5 will
contain 1 person with blood type O, 2 with blood type A, and 2 with blood type B?
Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is used to model the number of events occurring within a given time interval. The
formula for the Poisson probability function is

e   x
P=
x!

where l is the shape parameter, that indicates the average number of events in the given time interval.

Example
Arrivals at a bus-stop follow a Poisson distribution with an average of 4.5 in an hour. Calculate the
probability of 3 arrivals in an hour.

P = = 0.16872
Exercise

Q1. Consider 2 customers arrived in an office on average per day. Calculate the possibilities for exactly 3
customers to be arrived on tomorrow.
Ans: 0.1804

Q2. On an average Friday, a waitress gets no tip from 5 customers. Find the probability that she will get no tip
from 7 customers this Friday.

Q3. The number of traffic accidents that occurs on a road during a month follows a Poisson distribution with a
mean of 9.4. Find the probability that less than two accidents will occur on this road during a randomly
selected month.
Ans: 0.0009

Q4. The number of goals scored at State College hockey games follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 3
goals per game. Find the probability that each of four randomly selected State College hockey games resulted
in six goals being scored.

Q5. During the period of time phone-in reservations are being taken at a local university, calls come in at a rate of
one every ten minutes.

A. What is the expected number of calls in one hour?

B. What is the probability of 4 calls in 5 minutes?

C. What is the probability of 5 calls in a ten minute period?

Q6. If an average number of 150 cars pass through a particular village per hour, then what is the probability that in
any period of 1 minute exactly 4 cars pass through this village?

Q7. If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution with an average of 3 failures every
twenty weeks, calculate the probability that there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.

Q8. Assume that the number of un-inspected cars caught at a state police checkpoint is Poisson distributed with
average 2.1 per hour.

A. What is the average number of cars caught in t hours?

B. What are P(no cars caught in 14 hours)?
C. P(at least 3 in 1.5 hours)
D. P(at least 1 car caught within 10 minutes of setting up the checkpoint)?
Ans: 2.1t, 0.0000, 0.6096, 0.2953
Q9. A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies per week. Use Poisson's law to
calculate the probability that in a given week he will sell

A. some policies
B. 2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.

C. Assuming that there are 5 working days per week, what is the probability that in a given day he will
sell one policy?

Poisson Approximation for Binomial

If p is small and n is large then in place of binomial we use Poisson distribution.

Where λ = np

Example

A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric motor is defective is 0.01. What is the
probability that a sample of 300 electric motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors?

λ = np = 0.01×300 = 3

P=

P = = 0.1008

Exercise

Q1. A certain birth defect occurs with probability p=0.0001. Assume that n=5000 babies are born at a particular
large hospital in a given year.

A. What is the approximate probability that there is at least 1 baby born with the defect?
B. What is the probability that there will be no more than 2 babies born with the defect?

Q2. The expectation is that letters posted with TCS will be delivered the next day. Records show that on average
4.8% of letters are delivered late. On a particular day there are 150 letters, find the probability that:

A. no more than 10 letters will be delivered late;

B. exactly 8 letters will be delivered late;
C. at least 6 but no more than 12 letters will be delivered late.

Q3. Global Airlines knows that overall 3% of its passengers do not turn up for its flights. The airline decides to
adopt a policy of selling more tickets than there are seats on a flight. For an aircraft with 196 seats, the airline
sold 200 tickets for particularly flight.

A. Find the probability that more than 196 passengers turn up for this flight.
B. Find the probability that there is at least one empty seat on this flight.
C. Find the probability that exactly 196 people turn up for the flight.

Q4. 0.5% of the plastic ducks produced are found to be defective. What is the probability that in a random sample
of 500 articles there will be

A. three defective ducks

B. fewer than six defective ducks
C. four or more defective ducks?
Q5. It is known that 5% of the books bound by a certain bindery have defective bindings. Find the probability that
2 of 100 books bound by this bindery will have defective bindings.

Normal Distribution

 The normal curve is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the exact center of the distribution.
 The arithmetic mean, median, and mode of the distribution are equal and located at the peak.
 Half the area under the curve is above the peak, and the other half is below it.
 Area under the curve is equal to 1.
 The normal probability distribution is symmetrical about its mean.

The Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 A normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 is called the standard normal
distribution.
 Z value: The distance between a selected value, designated X, and the population mean μ, divided by
the population standard deviation
Z=
Example

The monthly incomes of recent MBA graduates in a large corporation are normally distributed with a mean of
$2000 and a standard deviation of $200. What is the probability that the

A. Income is more than $2200?

B. Income is less than $1700?

Solution:
A. P(X>2200) = 1 – P(X< 2200)
= 1 – P(Z<)
= 1 – P(Z<1.00)
= 1 – 0.8413
P(X>2200) = 0.1587
B. P(X < 1700) = P(Z < )
= P(Z < -1.50)
P(X < 1700) = 0.0668

Exercise

Q1. A certain machine makes electrical resistors having a mean resistance of 40 ohms and a standard deviation of
2 ohms. Assuming that the resistance follows a normal distribution and can be measured to any degree of
accuracy, what percentage of resistors will have a resistance exceeding 43 ohms?

Q2. The average grade for a exam is 74 and the standard deviation is 7. Assuming that the grades follow a normal
distribution, what is the probability that a student will get grade of at least 60?

Q3. A research scientists reports that mice will live an average of 40 months when their diets are sharply restricted
and enriched with vitamins and proteins. Assuming that the lifetimes of such mice are normally distributed
with a standard deviation of 6.3 months, find the probability that a given mouse will live

A. more than 32 months

B. less than 28 months
C. between 37 and 49 months

Q4. Professor Mann has determined that the final average in his statistics course is normally distributed with a
mean of 72 and a standard deviation of 5. He decides to assign his grades for his current course such that the
top 15% of the students receive an A. What is the lowest average a student can receive to earn an A?
Q5. A large group of students take a test. The test scores are normally distributed with a mean of 73 and a standard
deviation of 15. If the tests are graded on the familiar scale from 0 to 100 and the school principal wants to
reward the best 10% of the students, what is the cut off score for the students who will get the reward?

Q6. A manager wants to hire the top 15% of all applicants that apply for a job as a typist. He decides to let the
applicants type a particular paragraph and notes the time it takes each applicant to type that same paragraph.
The times are normally distributed with a mean of 110 seconds and a standard deviation of 11 seconds. How
does he decide whom to hire?

Q7. A survey indicates that people use their computers an average of 2.4 years before upgrading to a new
machine. The standard deviation is 0.5 year. A computer owner is selected at random. Find the probability
that he or she will use it for fewer than 2 years before upgrading.

Q8. A survey indicates that for each trip to the supermarket, a shopper spends an average of 45 minutes with a
standard deviation of 12 minutes in the store. The length of time spent in the store is normally distributed and
is represented by the variable x. A shopper enters the store.

A. Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store for between 24 and 54 minutes.
B. If 200 shoppers enter the store, how many shoppers would you expect to be in the store more than
39 minutes?

Q9. Assume that cholesterol levels of men in the United States are normally distributed, with a mean of 215
milligrams per deciliter and a standard deviation of 25 milligrams per deciliter. You randomly select a man
from the United States. What is the probability that his cholesterol level is less than 175?

Q10. Scores for a civil service exam are normally distributed, with a mean of 75 and a standard deviation of 6.5. To
be eligible for civil service employment, you must score in the top 5%. What is the lowest score you can earn
and still be eligible for employment?

Q11. A bank auditor claims that credit card balances are normally distributed, with a mean of $2870 and a standard
deviation of $900.

A. What is the probability that a randomly selected credit card holder has a credit card balance less than
$2500?
B. You randomly select 25 credit card holders. What is the probability that their mean credit card balance is
less than $2500?

The Normal Approximation to the Binomial

 Using the normal distribution (a continuous distribution) as a substitute for a binomial distribution (a
discrete distribution) for large values of n seems reasonable because as n increases, a binomial
distribution gets closer and closer to a normal distribution.
 The normal probability distribution is generally deemed a good approximation to the binomial
probability distribution when np and n(1- p ) are both greater than 5.

Example:

A bank found that 24% of its loans become delinquent. If 200 loans are made, find the probability that
at-least 60 are delinquent.

Solution:

μ = np = 200 × 0.24
μ = 48
σ=
=
σ = 6.04
 P(X≥60) = P(X>59.5)
= 1 – P(X<59.5)
59.5  48
= 1 – P(Z < )
6.04
= 1 – P(Z < 1.90)
= 1 – 0.9713
P(X≥60) = 0.0287
Exercise

Q1. Records show that 60% of the customers of a service station pay with a credit card. Use normal
approximation to find the probabilities that among 100 customers

A. At most 65 will pay with a credit

B. At least 55 will pay with a credit
C. Between 55 and 65 will pay with a credit card
D. Exactly 65 will pay with a credit card
Ans: 0.8686, 0.8686 0.6424, 0.0474

Q2. Fifteen percent of adults in the U.S. do not make New Year’s resolutions. You randomly select 500 adults in
the U.S. and ask each if he or she made a New Year’s resolution.

A. The probability of getting between 270 and 310 successes.

B. The probability of getting at least 158 successes.

C. The probability of getting less than 63 successes.

Q3. A survey reports that 86% of Internet users use Windows® Internet Explorer ® as their browser. You
randomly select 200 Internet users and ask each whether he or she uses Internet Explorer as his or her
browser. What is the probability that exactly 176 will say yes?

Q4. According to the recent poll, about 46% Americans approve of Trump’s overall status. Now we select 100
people and ask for their opinions.

A. What is mean of sample proportion

B. How many people in our sample are expected to think the policy is unsuccessful?

C. What is the probability that over 50% of sample approve of Trump’s overall status?

Q5. If 22% of all patients with high blood pressure have side effects from a certain medication, and 100 patients
are treated, find the probability that at least 30 of them will have side effects.

Q6. The height of Australian women is normally distributed with a mean of 164 cm and a standard deviation of 8
cm.

A. If we chose a woman at random in this class, what is the probability that she would be taller than 174
cm?
B. If I’m interested in recruiting the tallest 1% of women for a basketball team, at what height will I
accept people?

Mix Questions.

Q1. Monthly utility bills in a certain city are normally distributed with a mean of $100 and a standard deviation of
$12. A utility bill is randomly selected.

A. Find the probability it is between $80 and $115.

B. What is the smallest utility bill that can be in the top 10% of the bills?
Q2. Al Shanfari is the sales representative in Salalah representing a line of Muscat Telecommunications Ltd.
Each day, he makes 10 sales calls. The chance of making a sale on each call is thought to be 0.30. Find the

A. Probability that he makes exactly three sales.

B. Probability that he makes 2 or more sales.

Q3. 34% of Americans have type A+ blood. If 500 Americans are sampled at random, what is the probability at
least 150 have type A+ blood?

Q4. Sarah is a court reporter. She makes an average of 0.2 errors per page.

A. What is the probability that she will make one or fewer errors on a single page?
B. What is the probability that she will type three successive pages with no errors?
C. What is the probability that she will type 5 successive pages with no errors?
D. What is the probability that she will type 4 pages with just 1 error?

Q5. Brown Manufacturing makes auto parts that are sold to auto dealers. Last week the company shipped 25 auto
parts to a dealer. Later on, it found out that five of those parts were defective. By the time the company
manager contacted the dealer, four auto parts from that shipment have already been sold. What is the
probability that three of those four parts were good parts and one was defective?

Q6. In a certain town, at 8:00 PM, 30% of the TV viewing audience watch the news, 25% watch a certain comedy,
and the rest watch other programs. What is the probability that, in a statistical survey of 7 randomly selected
viewers, exactly 3 watch the news and at least 2 watch the comedy?

Q7. A warehouse contains 500 TV sets, of which 25 are defective, 300 are in working condition but used, and the
rest are brand new. What is the probability that, in a random sample of 5 TV sets from this warehouse, there
are exactly one defective and exactly 2 brand new?

Q8. What is the probability of race finishing with; 2 Ferrari, 2 Renault, and 1 Honda in the top 5 if each team has
5 cars in the race and the race consists of only those teams?

Q9. A rare blood condition is found in only 2% of the population.

A. What is the mean number of people in a random sample of 500 who would have the blood condition?
B. Find the probability that no one in a sample of 500 people would have the condition.
C. Find the probability that 2 in a sample of 500 people will have the condition.
D. Find the probability that 4 in a sample of 500 people will have the condition.

Q10. Dawn Corporation has 12 employees who hold managerial positions. Of them, seven are female and five are
male. The company is planning to send 3 of these 12 managers to a conference. If 3 managers are randomly
selected out of 12,

A. Find the probability that all 3 of them are female

B. Find the probability that at most 1 of them is a female

Q11. Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour on weekend
evenings. What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend evening?

Q12. There are five bananas and seven oranges in the refrigerator. Four fruits are chosen at random to serve guest.
What is the probability that exactly two of the fruits will be oranges?

Q13. On the average, 10 tankers arrive each day. We can handle 15 tankers per day. What is the probability that on
a given day some tankers will be turned away?

Q14. A survey of Internet users found that 75% favored government regulations of “junk” e-mail. If 200 Internet
users are randomly selected, find the probability that fewer than 140 are in favor of government regulation.
Q15. Accidents occur infrequently in an particular factory. Assume accidents are independent and p = 0.005 on any
given day. What is the probability of an accident on one day of a period of 400 days?