informs

Vol. 36, No. 6, NovemberDecember 2006, pp. 514529

issn 0092-2102
eissn 1526-551X
06
3606
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doi 10.1287/inte.1060.0253
2006 INFORMS

A Survey of Operations Research Models and

Applications in Homeland Security
P. Daniel Wright, Matthew J. Liberatore, Robert L. Nydick

Department of Decision and Information Technologies, Villanova University, Villanova, Pennsylvania 19085
{daniel.wright@villanova.edu, matthew.liberatore@villanova.edu, robert.nydick@villanova.edu}

Operations research has had a long and distinguished history of work in emergency preparedness and response,
airline security, transportation of hazardous materials, and threat and vulnerability analysis. Since the attacks
of September 11, 2001 and the formation of the US Department of Homeland Security, these topics have been
gathered under the broad umbrella of homeland security. In addition, other areas of OR applications in homeland security are evolving, such as border and port security, cyber security, and critical infrastructure protection.
The opportunities for operations researchers to contribute to homeland security remain numerous.
Key words: government: agencies; planning: government, homeland security.
History: This paper was refereed.

form it, the government reorganized several agencies

and programs and evaluated its existing security
efforts (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks
upon the United States 2004). It put several existing
agencies under one domain to unite their efforts to
better protect the country. The department is organized into ve directorates: border and transportation
security, emergency preparedness and response, science and technology, information analysis and infrastructure protection, and management. Each directorate contains several agencies that were formerly
housed in different departments of the federal government. For instance, the border and transportation
security directorate now includes the US Customs
Service, the Transportation Security Administration,
and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service,
which were originally the responsibility of the Treasury, Justice, and Agriculture Departments, respectively. For all of its directorates, the Department of
Homeland Security states its mission as follows:

ince September 11, 2001, the term homeland security has entered the vernacular of the United States
and of countries around the world. In the US, it is
dened as a concerted national effort to prevent terrorist
attacks within the United States, reduce Americas vulnerability to terrorism, and minimize the damage and recover
from attacks that do occur (Ofce of Homeland Security 2002, p. 2). Despite the recency of the term, for
decades the operations research community has been
exploring issues that we now classify under homeland security. As far back as 1960, OR researchers
were working on such issues. At the seventh international meeting of the Institute of Management Sciences (TIMS), Wood (1961) highlighted US vulnerability and potential responses to nuclear attack. He
called on the OR community to develop techniques
and programs to maintain freedom. Since that time,
operations researchers have focused on such topics as emergency preparedness and response, airline
security, hazardous material transportation, and cyber
security. All of these areas are increasingly important
to homeland security. While they have done much,
operations researchers still have rich opportunities
available.
The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS),
formed in October 2001, has a broad set of responsibilities that contribute to securing the homeland. To

We will lead the unied national effort to secure America. We will prevent and deter terrorist attacks and protect
against and respond to threats and hazards to the nation. We
will ensure safe and secure borders, welcome lawful immigrants and visitors, and promote the free-ow of commerce
(Department of Homeland Security 2005).

The mission is reinforced by several strategic goals,

including awareness, prevention, protection, response,
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Interfaces 36(6), pp. 514529, 2006 INFORMS

recovery, service, and organizational excellence. Both

the mission and the strategic goals of the DHS provide exciting opportunities for operations research.

Countermeasures portfolios
Biological
Chemical

Literature Framework
Many research agendas contribute directly or indirectly to homeland security. Organizing the literature concerning homeland security is challenging.
Research in homeland security falls under the science and technology directorate, which is the primary research-and-development arm of the DHS. It
describes three main research areas that contribute to
the state of the art in homeland security: (1) countermeasures portfolios, (2) component-support portfolios, and (3) cross-cutting portfolios. The science and
technology directorate conducts and funds research in
all of these portfolios. A few authors have reported on
the impact of science and technology, including information technology, on terrorism response (Branscomb
and Klausner 2003, Hennessy et al. 2003).
The main purpose of the countermeasures portfolio is to protect the US from weapons of mass
destruction. Research in this area concerns vulnerabilities and risks surrounding biological, chemical, radiological, and nuclear weapons, and high explosives.
The research invites collaboration between operations
researchers and physical scientists.
The component-support portfolios focus on increasing the capabilities of DHS components and helping them to secure the homeland. The components
include border and transportation security, critical
infrastructure protection, cyber security, emergency
preparedness and response, threat and vulnerability
testing and assessment, the US Coast Guard, and the
US Secret Service. In this portfolio, OR has the greatest history and perhaps the most potential to improve
homeland security.
The cross-cutting portfolios focus on other vulnerabilities and risks that extend across the countermeasures and component support portfolios. They include
emerging threats, rapid prototyping, standards, and
university programs. Although OR could contribute
to cross-cutting, most previous work is better categorized in the other two portfolios.
We focus on the rst two portfolios because most
OR-related research has fallen in those portfolios.

515

Radiological and nuclear

High explosives

Reduce the probability and consequences

of a biological attack
Reduce the nations vulnerability to chemical
attacks
Develop and deploy techniques for detection
of radiological materials
Provide the concepts, technologies, systems
analysis, and procedures to interdict
terrorists use of explosives

Component-support portfolios
Border and transportation
security
Critical infrastructure
protection
Cyber security
Emergency preparedness
and response
Threat analysis

Prevent the entry of terrorists while ensuring

efcient ow of trafc and commerce
Develop tools to anticipate, identify, and
assess the risks in the nations critical
infrastructure
Research, develop, test, and evaluate
activities for improving cyber security
Plan for, prevent, respond to, and recover
from natural and man-made disasters and
terrorism
Evaluate extensive and diverse threat
information

Table 1: The countermeasures and component-support portfolios of the

Department of Homeland Security research portfolios protect against
weapons of mass destruction and support department components,
respectively (adapted from www.dhs.gov).

In addition, they offer the greatest opportunity for

contributions combining OR and homeland security
(Table 1).
We sought articles on OR and homeland security
throughout the world published in academic journals.
While some military research concerns homeland
security, it does not fall under the US Department of
Homeland Security and its research agenda. Jaiswal
(1997) reviewed military OR models and techniques,
and Miser (1998), Bonder (2002), and Hughes (2002)
discussed the historical impact of OR on the military.
Operations researchers have contributed in many
ways to homeland security. We use the DHS science
and technology framework to discuss previous work.

Countermeasures Portfolios
Countermeasure efforts address the risks of biological, chemical, radiological, and nuclear weapons,
and high explosives. The OR community has studied
problems in this area with notable results. Sullivan
and Perry (2004) developed a useful framework for

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Wright, Liberatore, and Nydick: Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security

categorizing terrorist groups development of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons.
They investigated three classication approaches, including a heuristic pattern-recognition method, classication trees, and discriminant analysis.
Dyer et al. (1998) and Butler et al. (2005) addressed
the problem of disposing of weapons-grade plutonium. Dyer et al. (1998) used multiple attribute utility
theory (MAUT) to develop a hierarchy of objectives,
to evaluate 13 alternatives, and to conduct sensitivity analyses. Butler et al. (2005) used MAUT to help
the US and Russia to evaluate alternatives for disposing of stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium. They
recommended converting the plutonium for use as
fuel in nuclear power plants. Munera et al. (1997)
described the safety and security concerns posed by
transporting highly enriched uranium used in nuclear
reactors. They used stochastic dominance to evaluate
the risks of road and air alternatives.
Hupert et al. (2002) used discrete-event simulation
to determine stafng levels for entry, triage, medical evaluation, and drug dispensing in a hypothetical
distribution center under conditions of low, medium,
and high bioterrorism attack. Craft et al. (2005) created a series of differential equations to determine the
potential number of deaths from an aerosol bioterror
attack. Their method included an atmospheric-release
model, a spatial array of biosensors, a dose-response
model, a disease-progression model, and an antibiotics model with a queue. Kaplan et al. (2002, 2003)
also used differential equations to study response to
a smallpox attack. Walden and Kaplan (2004) used a
Bayesian approach to estimate the size and time of
an anthrax attack to determine the number of persons
who might require medical care. Wein et al. (2003) also
modeled emergency response to an anthrax attack.
Jenkins (2000) used integer programming to identify a small subset of oil spills that are similar to all
potential categories of spills to predict the type of pollutant a terrorist group might use. Buckeridge et al.
(2005) classied bioterrorism outbreak algorithms and
found that spatial and other covariate information can
improve measures for detecting and evaluating outbreaks. Stuart and Wilkening (2005) used rst- and
second-order catastrophic decay models to study the
impact of degradation of biological-weapons agents
leaked into the environment.

Interfaces 36(6), pp. 514529, 2006 INFORMS

Border and Transportation Security

Border and transportation security problems have
been and continue to be of great interest to operations researchers particularly because these types of
problems are a good match for OR techniques. Within
the DHS framework, border security includes improving the security of the nations borders to prevent the
entry of terrorists, criminals, and illegal aliens while
maintaining the safe ow of commerce and travelers.
Transportation security includes the safety of airlines,
railroads, ships, and trucks.
Border Security
Papers on border security are just beginning to appear.
Wein and Baveja (2005) studied two programs: the US
visitor program and the immigrant-status-indicatortechnology program. These two programs aim to reduce visa fraud and detect the entry of watch-listed
criminals and suspected terrorists into the United
States. Using a game-theoretic model, the authors
show that the quality of ngerprint images is important to detection probability and thus system performance. They discussed ngerprint-scanning strategies
that help counter terrorists attempts to minimize
detection.
Airline Security
After the hijacking of commercial airlines that led to
the catastrophic events of September 11th, 2001, the
US Federal Aviation Administration and Transportation Security Administration tightened security measures at airports around the country. Barnett (2004)
described a dynamic computer system that uses probability models and data-mining techniques to classify airline-passenger threats. However, many airline
security issues still need attention (Turney et al. 2004).
Coincidentally many OR researchers addressed airline security before 2001, focusing primarily on scanning passengers or baggage. Gilliam (1979) employed
queuing theory for passenger screening. Kobza and
Jacobson (1997) discussed the design of access security systems in airports. They developed performance
measures based on the probabilities of false alarms
and false clears that determine the effectiveness of
single-device and multiple-device security systems.
Jacobson et al. (2000) developed a sampling procedure
that estimates false-alarm and false-clear probabilities.

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Kobza and Jacobson (1996) studied security-system

design by addressing the dependence between the
responses of security devices in multiple-device systems. These articles could help managers to improve
decisions on airport security systems and are somewhat generalizable to other types of security systems.
Jacobson et al. (2001) described aviation security as
a knapsack problem and proposed a model that determines how to minimize the false-alarm rate of a given
security system. Barnett et al. (2001) conducted an
experiment to evaluate the costs of bag-match strategies to the airlines and to the passengers in terms of
monetary cost and passenger delay. Jacobson et al.
(2003) discussed three important performance measures of baggage screening: the number of passengers on ights with unscanned bags, the number of
ight segments with unscanned bags, and the total
number of unscanned bags. Using examples based on
real data, they showed how a greedy algorithm can
minimize the performance measures. Jacobson et al.
(2005) discussed the optimization of the rst two measures through the allocation and utilization of screening devices.
The cost of airline security concerns airports and
commercial airlines. Candalino et al. (2004) discussed
a software system for screening checked baggage that
uses data on purchase and operating costs to allocate
security devices around the country. They proposed
an alternative cost function that includes indirect
costs related to scanning errors. Virta et al. (2003) considered the direct and indirect costs of scanning policies based on the passengers selected by the screening
software.
Long customer waits are an important issue for airports who want to keep passengers happy and reduce
congestion. Leone and Liu (2003) developed a simulation model that investigates passenger trafc and
throughput rates for scanning devices. They discovered that the machines throughput rates were far
lower than their advertised scan rates.
As policies and scanning technologies change, operations researchers should nd further opportunities
in airline security.
Port and Rail Security
Currently, little operations research deals with the
security of ports and railroads. Harrald et al. (2004)

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identied US ports as vulnerable and as very attractive targets for terrorists. Lewis et al. (2003) formulated a shortest-path model for container-security
operations at US seaports. They identied and analyzed trade-offs between the number of containers
inspected and the costs of delayed vessel departures.
The US railway system must be protected to prevent the sabotage of passenger or cargo trains and to
prevent terrorists gaining control of hazardous shipments. Glickman and Roseneld (1984) formulated
models to evaluate the risks associated with train
derailments and the release of hazardous materials,
issues that could become important in the event of a
terrorist attack.
Truck Security
The main issue for the trucking system is the transportation of hazardous materials. Many of the articles in the OR literature on transporting hazardous
materials do not focus on homeland security, that is,
preventing terrorists from hijacking these materials
and using them in weapons. The literature focuses
on two related issues: routing vehicles and analyzing
risk. Routing hazardous vehicles involves determining what paths vehicles should take to minimize population exposure in the event of an accident. Many
authors have developed algorithms and heuristics for
solving various cases of the routing problem (Batta
and Chiu 1986, 1988; Berman et al. 2000; Beroggi
and Wallace 1994, 2005; Erkut and Ingolfsson 2000;
Giannikos 1998; Jin et al. 1996; Karkazis and Boffey
1995; Lindner-Dutton et al. 1991; List and Turnquist
1998; van Steen 1987; Zografos and Androutsopoulos
2004). Related to the routing problem are methods
for treating and analyzing risk (Erkut and Ingolfsson
2005, Erkut and Verter 1998, Gopalan et al. 1990, Kara
et al. 2003, Raj and Pritchard 2000).

Critical Infrastructure Protection

To protect the critical infrastructure, analysts develop
tools to anticipate, identify, and assess the risks in the
nations critical infrastructure and attempt to reduce
the risks and the consequences of an attack. Potential
infrastructure targets include agriculture and food,
banking and nance, dams, high-prole events, information systems, public health, national monuments,
nuclear power plants, and water systems.

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Wright, Liberatore, and Nydick: Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security

Apostolakis and Lemon (2005) used MAUT to prioritize the vulnerabilities in an infrastructure that they
modeled using interconnected diagraphs and applied
graph theory to identify candidate scenarios. Brown
et al. (2004) applied simulation to study the impacts of
disruptions and used risk analysis to assess infrastructure interdependencies. Their purpose was to identify infrastructure risks and ways to reduce them.
Baskerville and Portougal (2003) developed a possibility model that suggests that, during an optimal length
of time, the possibility of attack on information system infrastructures is very low.
The risk associated with major utilities, such as
water systems, is important to homeland security
(Grigg 2003). Zografos et al. (1998) developed a datamanagement module, a vehicle-monitoring and communications module, and a modeling module and
applied them to an emergency-repair operation for
an electric utility company. They used a combined
optimization and simulation approach to minimize
service unavailability. Salmeron et al. (2004) developed a max-min model to help determine weaknesses
in the electric grid to prepare for terrorist attacks.
Through decomposition, they solved the problem
with a heuristic on two test systems.

Cyber Security
Research in cyber security helps prevent, protect
against, detect, respond to, and recover from largescale cyber attacks on the information infrastructure.
Although many studies concern network security, few
can be considered operations research. Krings and
Azadmanesh (2005) developed a model for transforming security and survivability applications so
that they can be solved with graph and scheduling algorithms. Chen et al. (2005) explained how
shared networks and the Internet have focused interest on IT security, particularly intrusion detection.
They used data-mining methods (articial neural
networks and support vector machine) to identify
potential intrusions. Abouzakhar and Manson (2002)
addressed network security using two intelligent
fuzzy agents to respond to denial-of-service attacks.
Shindo et al. (2000) generated fault-tree and event-tree
structures between a computer-network access point
and a process plant. They applied their analysis to

Interfaces 36(6), pp. 514529, 2006 INFORMS

a chemical plant failure and showed that they could

greatly improve risk assessment.
Chowdhury et al. (1999) used linear programming
to limit the availability of condential information
in a database while providing access to those who
need it. They developed two transportation ow algorithms that are computationally efcient and insightful. Muralidhar et al. (1999) developed a model
to explain how to use data-perturbation methods
to protect information from unwanted access while
allowing maximum access to genuine inquiries and
maintaining the relationships between attributes.

Emergency Preparedness and Response

Emergency preparedness and response include such
topics as planning for, preventing, responding to,
and recovering from natural disasters and terrorism.
Larson (2004, 2006) reviewed the literature on police,
re, and emergency medical services, and provided
some coverage of hazardous materials, bioterrorism,
and private-sector response to emergencies. The literature can be categorized into (1) early work, (2) location and resource allocation, (3) evacuation models,
and (4) disaster planning and response.
Early Work
Green and Kolesar (2004) described a number of
papers on emergency-response systems. Much of the
OR work on managing emergency services originated
with the New York CityRand Institute. Its work with
the New York City Fire Department included a simulation model of reghting operations (Carter and
Ignall 1970); queuing models of re company availability (Carter et al. 1972); the square root law
for the location of re companies based on response
distance, with a response time-distance function to
predict response time (developed by Kolesar and
Blum 1973 and applied by Rider 1976); an empirical Bayes approach to alarm forecasting (Carter and
Rolph 1974); a stochastically-based integer linear programming model and a heuristic algorithm for re
company relocation (Kolesar and Walker 1974); a set
covering approach for locating two types of ladder re trucks (Walker 1974); heuristics for identifying high-priority alarm boxes (Ignall et al. 1975);
Markovian decision models of initial dispatch of re
companies (Ignall et al. 1982, Swersey 1982); and a

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book pulling together the accumulated work on re

deployment analysis (Walker et al. 1979) under support from the US Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD).
The New York CityRand Institutes work with the
New York Police Department included work on deployment related to the 911 emergency telephone system (Larson 1972, 2002); scheduling patrol cars using
queuing and linear programming (Kolesar et al. 1975);
and the patrol car allocation model (PCAM) based
on queuing and linear programming (Chaiken and
Dormont 1978a, b). The multicar dispatch queuing
model (Green 1984) was later incorporated into a
revised version of PCAM (Green and Kolesar 1989)
and applied to the proposed mergers of police and
re departments in several cities (Chelst 1988, 1990).
Chaiken and Larson (1972) reviewed methods for
allocating emergency units (vehicles). Chaiken (1978)
described six models (including PCAM) developed
with HUD support for re and police operations and
the challenges of implementing them.
Location and Resource Allocation
The early literature on locating emergency service
facilities is based on the location set covering problem (LSCP) formulated by Toregas et al. (1971). In
this problem, a population is served or covered when
a facility is located within an acceptable service distance. The objective is to minimize the number of
facilities while covering all demand points. Walker
(1974) applied the LSCP to the location of ladder
trucks in the boroughs of New York City. Plane and
Hendrick (1977) applied the LSCP to the location of
re companies in Denver, Colorado. Daskin and Stern
(1981) extended the LSCP to address multiple coverage of demand nodes.
The maximal covering location problem (MCLP)
developed by Church and ReVelle (1974) relaxes the
LSCPs requirement that all demand nodes are covered. The MCLP seeks to maximize the total population served within a maximum service distance,
given a xed number of facilities. Because Church
and ReVelle leave some population uncovered, they
include mandatory closeness constraints in their formulation. The MCLP is related to the p-median problem (Hakimi 1964), which seeks to locate p facilities
to minimize total demand-weighted travel distances
between demands and facilities.

519

Eaton et al. (1985) applied the MCLP model in

Austin, Texas when EMS ofcials sought to improve
operating efciency. Saccomanno and Allen (1988)
used a modied MCLP algorithm to locate emergency response capability for potential spills of dangerous goods on a road network. Belardo et al. (1984b)
extended the MCLP to locate oil-spill-response equipment on Long Island Sound. Chung (1986) described
other applications of the MCLP.
Hogan and ReVelle (1986) modied set covering
models to maximize the percentage of the population
that receives backup coverage. Pirkul and Schilling
(1988) developed a backup coverage model for facilities with limited workloads or capacities. Batta and
Mannur (1990) extended the set covering models
to include some demand points requiring responses
from multiple units (for example, re trucks or ambulances).
Church et al. (1991) formulated a bicritera maximal covering location model that maximizes the
demand covered within the maximal distance and
also minimizes the distance traveled from the uncovered demand to the nearest facility. Schilling et al.
(1979) developed the tandem equipment allocation
model (TEAM) and the facility location, equipment, and emplacement technique (FLEET) model
to allocate equipment with varying capabilities and
demands. The FLEET model has been effectively
applied to locate re stations and allocate equipment.
With some modications, Tavakoli and Lightner
(2004) applied Bianchi and Churchs (1988) multiple coverage, one-unit FLEET model (MOFLEET)
to Cumberland County, North Carolinas emergency
medical services (EMS) system.
Current and OKelly (1992) applied covering models to locate emergency warning sirens in a midwestern city. Building on covering-model research,
Akella et al. (2005) addressed the problem of locating
cellular base stations and allocating channels, while
explicitly considering emergency coverage of areas
known for vehicle crashes and sites prone to potential
enemy attacks. The Lagrangean heuristic performed
very well on test problems and in rural Erie County,
New York.
Several authors have developed optimization models that include stochastic elements. Daskin (1983)
developed the maximal expected coverage location

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Wright, Liberatore, and Nydick: Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security

model (MECLM), which seeks to locate emergency

vehicles to maximize the expected coverage area,
even when multiple vehicles are in use. Batta et al.
(1989) offered an extended version of MECLM. They
assumed that the probability that a randomly chosen vehicle is busy is independent of any other vehicle in use. ReVelle and Hogan (1989) proposed a
variation of MECLM called the maximum availability location model (MALM) in which each constraint
guarantees that the probability that a demand point
receives service within an acceptable time is no less
than a required value. In these latter two models, the
analysts estimated probabilities that vehicles are busy
in advance. Ball and Lin (1993) developed a model
similar to MALM except that they directly model
the source of the randomness. Goldberg and Paz
(1991) developed an optimization model that seeks to
maximize the expected number of emergency callers
reached within a specied time.
Analytical queuing models have been used to evaluate the performance of emergency service systems.
In his hypercube model (1974, 1975, 2001), Larson
characterizes the operation of an emergency service
system as a multiserver queuing system in which
the states correspond to all combinations of servers
busy and idle. This model provides a set of output
measures, such as vehicle utilization and average
travel time, and has been used to deploy ambulances and police cars in various cities (Brandeau and
Larson 1986, Larson and Rich 1987). Extensions include improving the accuracy of the models output
measures by allowing the service rates to be server
dependent (Halpern 1977), estimating the probability
distribution of travel times (Chelst and Jarvis 1979),
and allowing the dispatch of multiple units (Chelst
and Barlach 1981). Researchers have suggested that
these queuing models can be used as subroutines
in optimization heuristics (Berman and Larson 1982,
Benveniste 1985, and Berman et al. 1987). Carter et al.
(1972), Hall (1972), and Chelst (1981) developed other
analytic approaches.
Savas (1969) used simulation analysis to evaluate proposed changes to the number and location of
ambulances in New York. Fitzsimmons (1973) combined queuing and simulation to estimate the probabilities of particular ambulances being busy. This
approach was combined with a pattern search routine

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in the ambulance deployment method CALL (computerized ambulance location logic), which located
ambulances to minimize mean response time. CALL
was successfully applied in central Los Angeles to
locate rehouses and in Melbourne, Australia to
plan an emergency ambulance system. Later CALL
was combined with a contiguous zone search routine (CZSR) that uses an existing database on interzone travel times to locate ambulances in Austin,
Texas (Fitzsimmons and Srikar 1982). Swoveland et al.
(1973) used simulation coupled with optimization to
locate ambulances in Vancouver, Canada.
Evacuation Models
Researchers have developed optimization, queuing,
and simulation models to plan emergency evacuations of buildings and areas. Most of such work relies
on queuing or simulation, although some uses optimization. Chalmet et al. (1982) applied transshipment
and dynamic network optimization models to planning the evacuation of large buildings. They applied
the models to the evacuation of 322 people from an
11-story building with four elevators and two stairwells and compared the results with an observed
evacuation to reveal possible improvements.
Smith and Towsley (1981) applied analytical queuing network models to evacuating buildings using
several examples. They modeled the buildings as hierarchical queuing networks. Talebi and Smith (1985)
modeled the evacuation of a hospital as a nite closed
queuing network model using mean-value analysis. Bakuli and Smith (1991, 1996; Smith 1991) used
state-dependent queuing networks that incorporate
a mean-value-analysis algorithm and unconstrained
optimization to solve problems in which the widths
of circulation paths in buildings can vary.
Analysts have developed micro-, macro-, and
mesosimulation models for planning evacuations.
Micro-simulations track the detailed movements of
individual entities (cars, trucks, or people) on the
road network. Pidd et al. (1996) and de Silva and
Eglese (2000) describe their development of a spatial decision-support system (SDSS) for contingency
planning in emergency evacuations using a microsimulation model linked to a geographical information system (GIS). Mould (2001) used discrete-event
simulation to plan the emergency evacuation of an

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offshore oil installation. He considered environmental conditions, such as wind speed and wave height,
while using a prespecied routine for evacuation and
assessed the use of helicopters alone or in conjunction with fast rescue craft. He applied the model to a
ctitious incident using randomly generated weather
data. Jha et al. (2004) developed a micro-simulation
model to evaluate ve scenarios for evacuation planning at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Helbing
et al. (2005) developed simulation models of pedestrian ows and used the results of these models as
well as experiments to recommend designs to increase
the efciency and safety of facilities and egress routes.
Using behavioral information, Stern and SinuanyStern (1989) used micro-simulation to plan evacuation
under a radiological event.
Macro-simulations do not track individual entities
but use equations based on analogies with uid
ows in networks (Shef et al. 1982). Southworth
and Chin (1987) used macro-simulation to study the
evacuation of a population threatened by ooding
from a failed dam based on empirical data from urban
and rural areas. A compromise approach is to use
meso-simulators that usually track the movement of
groups of entities.
Disaster Planning and Response
How individuals and organizations respond to disasters is important in preparing for emergencies.
Belardo et al. (1984a) discussed response problems
faced by four organizations: the American Red Cross,
the US Coast Guard, the Regional Emergency Medical Organization in Albany, New York, and the New
York State Ofce of Disaster Preparedness. Averett
(2005) discussed four examples of responding to and
preparing for disasters using various modeling tools:
(1) discrete optimization and simulation models for
locating and conguring vaccination centers and redirecting the ow of patients, (2) a graphics tool for
visualization and collaboration, (3) simulation for disaster management training, and (4) game theory to
anticipate terrorist attacks and defend against them.
Kananen et al. (1990) extended standard input-output
models and used multiobjective linear programming
to evaluate the potential impact of emergencies or disasters on the Finnish economy.
Routing emergency vehicles is important in responding to emergencies. Recognizing the importance

521

of considering the stochastic and time-varying nature

of travel conditions in emergency situations, MillerHooks and Mahmassani (1998) developed and tested
two algorithms for determining the shortest path
under such conditions. Several authors have modeled
the problem of transporting vital rst-aid commodities and emergency personnel to disaster-affected
areas. Haghani and Oh (1996) used a deterministic
multicommodity, multimodal network ow model to
plan disaster relief. Barbarosoglu and Arda (2004)
extended this approach to include random arc capacity, supply, and demand. They formulated the problem as a two-stage stochastic program and used
data from the August 1999 earthquake in Marmara,
Turkey.
Srinivasa and Wilhelm (1997) and Wilhelm and
Srinivasa (1997) developed a model that prescribes
an effective response to an oil spill, which requires
such decisions as which components to dispatch, how
many, and when. They formulated the problem as a
general integer program, using graph theory to generate response systems (components and their locations)
needed by the model. They applied their approach
to actual data representing the Galveston Bay area.
They applied a heuristic (Wilhelm and Srinivasa 1997)
and an exact procedure based on strong cutting-plane
methods (Srinivasa and Wilhelm 1997).
A few researchers have modeled human behavior in emergency situations. Reer (1994) developed
a probabilistic procedure to analyze human reliability in emergency situations using time windows and
organizational input data. Reer used the loss of main
feedwater at a pressurized water reactor plant as an
example to investigate several organizational alternatives. Doheny and Fraser (1996) developed a software tool that can be used to model human decision
making during emergency situations. Their model
includes frames to represent a persons characteristics and perception of the environment, and scripts to
dene typical behaviors for particular situations. They
used their model to simulate an offshore emergency
scenario.

Threat Analysis
Threat analysis develops the capabilities to evaluate
and disseminate extensive information about threats

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and to identify planned attacks. The US government

obtains extensive information on threats daily, and
threat analysis research attempts to detect and document terrorists intentions. Raghu et al. (2005) discussed a collaborative decision-making framework
for homeland security and a connectionist modeling
approach that fuses disparate information from several sources.
Popp et al. (2004) approached threat analysis from
an information technology (IT) perspective. They
argued that improved IT can reduce the time needed
for searching for data, harvesting data, preprocessing
data, and turning the results into reports and briefs.
They discussed three core IT areas in depth: collaboration and decision tools, foreign-language tools, and
pattern-analysis tools. These areas offer operations
researchers opportunities to work in conjunction with
information technologists to reduce terrorist attacks
and their effects.
Wang et al. (2004) developed an algorithm that
looks for similarities in criminal identities. Using real
data from a police department, they created a model
that develops disagreement values for each pair of
criminal records. The intent is to use IT to determine
whether two criminal records represent the same person. Sheth et al. (2005) devised a process of semantic
association that links disparate information to establish relationships between terrorists. They incorporated this methodology into a program that provides
a 360-degree look at each passenger boarding a ight
and develops a threat score for use in deciding about
additional security screening.
Pate-Cornell (2002) studied the fusion of intelligence information from different sources and used
Bayesian analysis to rank threats and to prioritize
safety measures. Dombroski and Carley (2002) used
Bayesian analysis and biased network theory to estimate patterns of links between different cells of
a terrorist organization to predict the structure of
the terrorist network. Other researchers who developed Bayesian methods to aid in decision making
are Santos (1996), Santos and Young (1999), and
Santos et al. (2003). Santos and Haimes (2004) used
input-output and decomposition analysis to provide a
framework for describing how various terrorist activities are connected. They prioritize sectors based on
the economic impact of terrorist activities. Haimes

Interfaces 36(6), pp. 514529, 2006 INFORMS

and Horowitz (2004) modeled counterterrorism intelligence using a two-player hierarchical holographic
modeling game. Kaplan et al. (2005) introduced a
terror-stock model that estimates the size of terrorist
groups and how that size changes when the terrorists
themselves are attacked.

Discussion and Future Research

Operations research has contributed to issues related
to homeland security in the United States even
before 2001, when homeland security was dened.
We adopted the research framework used by the
US Department of Homeland Securitys science and
technology directorate to classify the literature. As a
result, we have not included some topics, such as the
military that in some cases could be considered homeland security.
We used a two-dimensional framework in examining the previous OR work in homeland security:
the areas specied by the US Department of Homeland Security and the four phases in the disaster life
cycle: planning, prevention, response, and recovery
(Table 2). Planning is generally strategic and long
term in nature and relates to preparing for a disaster. Planning examples include policy analysis, risk
analysis, systems design, and resource allocation. Prevention efforts aim to identify and eliminate threats,
for example, screening airline passengers or patrolling
borders. Response activities occur immediately after
a disaster and include stabilizing affected areas,
immediate medical care, and evacuation. Finally,
recovery focuses on returning the affected areas and
populations to their pre-event status and includes
restoring critical infrastructures, assisting affected
persons, and coordinating relief efforts.
Despite the attention paid to component support,
many critical issues remain to be addressed within
this category. Green and Kolesar (2004) described
how component support problems are evolving. They
suggested that analysts need to work on nonroutine emergencies and coordinating emergency service
providers, and preparing for and responding to terroristic acts.
A wealth of literature concerns the security of
trucks transporting hazardous materials, largely such
issues as routing them to avoid exposing populations

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Category

Planning

Countermeasures portfolios
Biological

Chemical
Radiological and nuclear

Hupert et al. (2002)

Jenkins (2000)

High explosives
Component support portfolios
Border and transportation
security
Border security
Airline security

Port and rail

Wein and Baveja (2005)

Barnett et al. (2001), Candalino et al. (2004),
Leone and Liu (2003), Virta et al. (2003)

Glickman and Roseneld (1984), Harrald

et al. (2004), Lewis et al. (2003)

Truck

Prevention

Sullivan and Perry (2004)

Response

Buckeridge et al. (2005), Craft

et al. (2005), Kaplan et al.
(2002, 2003), Stuart and
Wilkening (2005), Wein et al.
(2003)

Butler et al. (2005), Dyer et al.

(1998), Munera et al. (1997)

Barnett (2004), Gilliam (1979),

Jacobson et al. (2000, 2001,
2003, 2005), Kobza and Jacobson
(1996, 1997)

Batta and Chiu (1986, 1988),

Berman et al. (2000), Beroggi and
Wallace (1994, 2005), Erkut and
Ingolfsson (2000, 2005), Erkut
and Verter (1998), Giannikos
(1998), Gopalan et al. (1990), Jin
et al. (1996), Kara et al. (2003),
Karkazis and Boffey (1995),
Lindner-Dutton et al. (1991), List
and Turnquist (1998), Raj and
Pritchard (2000), van Steen
(1987), Zografos and
Androutsopoulos (2004)

Critical infrastructure
protection

Apostolakis and Lemon (2005), Brown et al.

(2004), Salmeron et al. (2004)

Baskerville and Portougal (2003)

Zografos et al. (1998)

Cyber security

Krings and Azadmanesh (2005)

Chowdhury et al. (1999), Muralidhar

et al. (1999)

Abouzakhar and Manson (2002),

Chen et al. (2005), Shindo
et al. (2000)

Emergency preparedness
and response
Early work

Carter and Ignall (1970), Carter and Rolph

(1974), Chaiken and Dormont (1978a, b),
Chelst (1988, 1990), Green (1984),
Green and Kolesar (1989), Kolesar
et al. (1975), Ignall et al. (1975), Kolesar
and Blum (1973), Kolesar and Walker
(1974), Larson (1972), Rider (1976),
Walker (1974)

Recovery

Carter et al. (1972), Ignall et al.

(1982), Swersey (1982)

Table continues next page

Table 2: Homeland security literature classied along two dimensions reveals opportunities for future research.
We show where each paper ts within the Department of Homeland Securitys research framework and its position
within the disaster life cycle. The two-dimensional framework in this table illustrates where the bulk of OR
models and applications in homeland security exist. This table also highlights important gaps for future research.
Focusing rst on the rows in the table, we see that the topics that have received the most attention fall under
the component support portfolios. Emergency preparedness and response contains signicant amounts of work,
with emphasis on emergency services location and resource allocation. Other highly important issues that have
seen signicant attention are evacuation models and disaster planning and response.

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Category

Planning

Prevention

Response

Location and resource

allocation

Akella et al. (2005), Ball and Lin (1993), Batta

and Mannur (1990), Batta et al. (1989),
Belardo et al. (1984b), Benveniste (1985),
Berman et al. (1987), Berman and
Larson (1982), Bianchi and Church
(1988), Brandeau and Larson (1986),
Carter et al. (1972), Chelst (1981), Chelst
and Barlach (1981), Chelst and Jarvis
(1979), Church and ReVelle (1974),
Current and OKelly (1992), Daskin
(1983), Daskin and Stern (1981), Eaton
et al. (1985), Fitzsimmons (1973),
Fitzsimmons and Srikar (1982), Goldberg
and Paz (1991), Hall (1972), Halpern
(1977), Hogan and ReVelle (1986),
Larson (1974, 1975, 2001), Larson and
Rich (1987), Pirkul and Schilling (1988),
Plane and Hendrick (1977), ReVelle and
Hogan (1989), Saccomanno and Allen
(1988), Savas (1969), Schilling et al.
(1979), Swoveland et al. (1973), Tavakoli
and Lightner (2004), Toregas et al. (1971),
Walker (1974)

Evacuation models

Bakuli and Smith (1991, 1996), de Silva and

Eglese (2000), Helbing et al. (2005), Jha
et al. (2004), Mould (2001), Pidd et al.
(1996), Shef et al. (1982), Smith (1991),
Smith and Towsley (1981), Southworth
and Chin (1987), Stern and Sinuany-Stern
(1989), Talebi and Smith (1985)

Chalmet et al. (1982)

Disaster planning and

response

Barbarosoglu and Arda (2004), Doheny and

Fraser (1996), Haghani and Oh (1996),
Kananen et al. (1990), Miller-Hooks and
Mahmassani (1998), Reer (1994)

Averett (2005), Belardo et al.

(1984a), Srinivasa and
Wilhelm (1997), Wilhelm and
Srinivasa (1997)

Threat analysis

Dombroski and Carley (2002), Haimes and

Horowitz (2004), Kaplan et al. (2005),
Pate-Cornell (2002), Popp et al. (2004),
Raghu et al. (2005), Santos and Haimes
(2004)

Sheth et al. (2005), Wang et al.

(2004)

Recovery

Santos (1996), Santos and

Young (1999), Santos et al.
(2003)

Table 2: Continued.

unnecessarily and analyzing risks. Researchers should

extend these models to incorporate homeland security
issues, for example, protecting trucks against terrorist
hijacking.
Much of the extensive research on airline security
has limited applicability because of changes in security systems and policies. Operations researchers have
many new opportunities to contribute in this area.
The countermeasures and component support portfolios offer many other opportunities for contribution.
The literature on the countermeasures portfolio is increasing, but many issues still need exploration. Some
would benet from collaboration between operations

researchers and physical scientists, similar to that of

Craft et al. (2005). OR methods are well suited for
problems pertaining to cyber security, critical infrastructure protection, threat analysis, and border security; however, work in these areas so far is limited
(Table 2).
We classied papers in the disaster life cycle based
on their main focus (Table 2). The literature has gaps
with respect to some phases in the disaster life cycle.
Most OR research in homeland security concerns planning. Some concerns prevention, but we uncovered no
papers on the recovery phase and very few on the
response phase. There is a need for more research on

Wright, Liberatore, and Nydick: Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security
Interfaces 36(6), pp. 514529, 2006 INFORMS

decision making after the disaster. As the 2005 hurricanes made clear, we need to respond effectively
to large-scale disasters. Operations research modeling
incorporating the complex interconnections between
relief agencies and government entities can clarify
these chaotic situations and help relief agencies to
coordinate their efforts. Operations researchers have
not developed models that support real-time decision
making, such as those proposed by Tien (2003, 2005)
in the decision informatics area. In addition, operations researchers should extend to disaster response
such collaborative decision-making frameworks as
Raghu et al. (2005).
Research has begun on supply chain security, an
important topic for many corporations. Chopra and
Sodhi (2004) categorized supply chain risk and riskmitigation strategies. Russell and Saldanha (2003)
discussed increased costs and the changes needed
in operating supply chains as a result of terrorist
threats. Asbjornslett and Rausand (1999) described
how to reduce the vulnerability of production systems. Another important issue in need of OR work
is private sector response to disasters. For example,
Larson (2006) discussed the need for corporations,
such as commercial airlines and manufacturers, to
resume normal operations quickly after a disaster.
The failures of critical infrastructures subjected to
hurricanes and other natural disasters highlight the
need for research exploring the interdependence of
critical infrastructures and for OR models to predict
the likelihood of subsequent failures. Most models
assume that infrastructures operate in isolation. We
need to understand the relationships among infrastructures to prevent one failure from causing additional failures.
Research on homeland security can have far-reaching effects because of its importance to government
and private agencies. Although these agencies offer
research funding for homeland security research, the
resulting studies may be classied or published in
technical reports, and not released for publication in
traditional academic outlets. The funding agencies
may also see the details of the work as benecial to
terrorist groups. For instance, in a Washington Post
article, Weiss (2005) reported that a paper concerning the security of the US milk supply by Lawrence
M. Wein and Yifan Liu was removed from the

525

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Web

site. Despite such possible restrictions, operations researchers have many opportunities to contribute to
homeland security.
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