Professional Documents
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MIT - PSFC
28 SEP 2010
Introduction
Outline
O UTLINE
Scoping study
Systems analysis - increasing
detail
Life cycle analysis
Simulation models
Risk analysis and uncertainty
How are all these connected?
Introduction
Outline
I NTRODUCTION
requiring balance
We need to quantify to
proceed
uncertainty
Economics Environment
Analysis
Society
computer models?
Scoping study
Highly simplied
Advantages
Identication of weaknesses
Systems Analysis
Mining costs
Conversion costs
Enrichment costs
Finance costs
Systems Analysis
Systems Analysis
Systems Analysis
modules
analysis codes!!
Systems Analysis
Investors are not the only people to carry out systems analysis
Investors focus on nancial returns
Architectural engineers focus on technical credibility, schedule,
and cost
Environmentalists focus on pollution, waste disposal, greenhouse
gasses, etc.
Government focuses on the public good
Systems Analysis
Financial institutions.
Engineering rms.
Environmental groups.
Industrial groups.
10
Systems Analysis
simulation code.
11
Systems Analysis
T HE S IMULATION C ODE
12
Emissions
Energy
Production of
Raw Materials
Wastes
Manufacturing
Process
Use of
Product
Wastes
Wastes
Disposal
Recycle
Wastes
Sum cumulative
attributes over total life cycle of product to compare net impacts
Raw materials
Materials processing
Manufacturing
Distribution
Waste disposal
Decommissioning
13
MacDonalds
Styrofoam or paper?
Oil (bad?)
Trees (natural?)
Chemicals (worse)
Paper (good ?)
Styrofoam (??)
Oil
Chlorine or
Peroxide
Pulp
Paper
PCBs +
Dioxins
Acid or Alkali
Water
Wastewater
Hard to recycle
Plastic coating
Landfill
Trash
CFCs
CO2
Pentane
Styrene
Polystyrene foam
McD
Recycle
Upstream
processes
Plant Construction
& Decommissioning
Resources
in
Hydrogen
Natural gas
Fossil fuel
energy in
SMR plant
operation
Electricity
generation
System Boundary
Emissions
air, water,
wastes
SMR Results
Wind/Electrolysis Study
turbines
electrolyzer
H2 storage
Wind turbines:
Atlantic Orient Corporation (50kW x 3)
Class 5 wind data from upper Midwest site
(North Dakota)
Electrolyzer:
Stuart Energy (30 Nm3/hr nominal capacity)
Cars fueled: fleet of 46 at 3 kg/car/week
Preliminary results:
GWP = 650 g CO2-eq/kg H2
Only 5% of the greenhouse gas emissions from SMR
Systems Analysis
Cost of fuel
14
Systems Analysis
An Example
$437
$117
$825
$351
$2040
15
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Systems Analysis
An Example
10N(t)MF t
Ri (t) 10N(t)MF t
Ncoal
N(t) = Ni0 +
+ k2 Ni0 t
Tp
Core (t) Ci
Ri (t) = Ri0 1 + k3
Core (t)
k1 = 2.3, k2 = 0.05, k3 = 2
16
Systems Analysis
An Example
C[$/kg]
N[#]
R[107 kg]
1,000
800
Note the
singular
response
around 40
years. What
causes this?
600
400
200
What does a
plot of R vs C
look like?
0
0
10
20
Year
30
17
40
Systems Analysis
An Example
C ONCLUSION
18
Systems Analysis
Risk Analysis
R ISK A NALYSIS
19
Systems Analysis
Risk Analysis
T YPES OF R ISK
20
Systems Analysis
Risk Analysis
AVOIDING R ISK
21
Systems Analysis
Risk Analysis
D ETERMINING R ISK
22
Systems Analysis
Risk Analysis
C OMPLEX FAILURES
failures
Systems Analysis
Risk Analysis
W HAT TO DO ?
24
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