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Lecture: Systems Analysis Methodologies

Dr. John C. Wright

MIT - PSFC

28 SEP 2010

Introduction

Outline

O UTLINE

Scoping study
Systems analysis - increasing
detail
Life cycle analysis
Simulation models
Risk analysis and uncertainty
How are all these connected?

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Introduction

Outline

I NTRODUCTION

Many issues for sustainability

requiring balance

We need to quantify to

proceed

Deal with complexity and

uncertainty

Economics Environment

This is the goal Systems

Analysis

Society

End result often involves very,

very large computer codes

How do we make such

computer models?

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Scoping study

S COPING STUDY CHARACTERISTICS

Well see more of this in a fuel costs example next week.


Basic guidelines for a scoping study:

Highly simplied

Mostly linear analysis - add separate costs


Very few feedback effects

Advantages

Relatively simple to understand

Good overall picture

Identication of weaknesses

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

S YSTEMS A NALYSIS IS THE NEXT STEP IN EVALUATION

Assume a favorable scoping study


Next step is a detailed systems analysis
All elements are analyzed in much greater detail
For example in our nuclear plant scoping study we gave the fuel
price in $/kg
In a system analysis model these costs are further broken down
Fuel costs:

Mining costs

Conversion costs

Enrichment costs

Finance costs

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

M ODULARIZATION OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Each of these may be further analyzed one or two levels deeper.


Input data will be based on experience and future projections.
The analysis will account for uncertainties.
All lower level contributions are combined to form one module of
the systems code

the fuel cost module.

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

SA INCLUDES NON - LINEAR EFFECTS

A critical feature in SA is the inclusion of interdependencies.


Systems analysis are not linear.
They include feedback effects.
For example consider mining costs:

Plenty of Reserves no problem, linear relation works.

Reserves dwindle other issues arise

Fuel costs will rise

Will new fuel be found, if so how much?

How will this affect the projected cost of fuel?

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

B EWARE OF COMPLEX CODES .

Systems analysis code contains a large number of complex

modules

Often hard to understand the whole picture, often expert in part of


the picture.
Should be more reliable than a scoping study thought.
Warning:

Be very careful using complex systems

analysis codes!!

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

SA IS NOT ONLY ABOUT MONEY

Investors are not the only people to carry out systems analysis
Investors focus on nancial returns
Architectural engineers focus on technical credibility, schedule,
and cost
Environmentalists focus on pollution, waste disposal, greenhouse
gasses, etc.
Government focuses on the public good

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

G OVERNMENT IMPACT ON SA IS THROUGH REGULATION

Desirability of a regulation is in the eye of the stakeholder.


Everyone is a lobbyist.

Financial institutions.

Engineering rms.

Environmental groups.

Industrial groups.

Consideration of impact of regulation is part of any SA.


There often is an uncertain political aspect to a regulation.

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SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

S TRUCTURE OF A S YSTEMS A NALYSIS

Number of approaches to systems analysis


Method below is fairly typical
Goal of the analysis answer the question

Does it make sense to build a new power

plant (of type X)?

The end product a large, complex, hopefully all inclusive,

simulation code.

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SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

T HE S IMULATION C ODE

Technical aspects from a life cycle analysis


Regulation aspects from a risk analysis
Include feedback effects
Combine to create a nancial analysis

12

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis


Systems Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis

L IFE C YCLE A NALYSIS (LCA) ELEMENTS

Emissions
Energy

Production of
Raw Materials

Wastes

Manufacturing
Process

Use of
Product

Wastes

Wastes

Disposal

Recycle

Wastes

Comprehensive cradle-to-grave, wells-to-wheels, dust-to-dust


Attributes:
analysisCosts, Resource use, Emissions, Wastes, Costs, Performance, etc.
Includes

Sum cumulative
attributes over total life cycle of product to compare net impacts
Raw materials

Materials processing

Manufacturing

Distribution

Repair and maintenance

Waste disposal

Decommissioning

13

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

MacDonalds

Styrofoam or paper?

Oil (bad?)

Trees (natural?)

Chemicals (worse)
Paper (good ?)
Styrofoam (??)
Oil

Chlorine or
Peroxide
Pulp
Paper

PCBs +
Dioxins

Benzene + C2H4 + etc.

Acid or Alkali

Water
Wastewater

Hard to recycle
Plastic coating
Landfill

Trash

CFCs
CO2
Pentane

Styrene

Polystyrene foam

McD
Recycle

Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.

Hydrogen Production Example


Make from steam methane
reforming?
Make from water electrolysis
using wind power?

Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.

Steam Methane Reforming

System Boundary Definition

Upstream
processes

Plant Construction
& Decommissioning

Resources
in

Hydrogen

Natural gas

production & distribution

Fossil fuel
energy in

SMR plant
operation

Electricity

generation

System Boundary

Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.

Emissions
air, water,
wastes

SMR Results

 H2 is a clean fuel, but its production from natural gas


has environmental consequences
 H2 plant itself produces few emissions, except CO2



CO2 is the largest air emission (98 wt%) and accounts


for 77% of the GWP
0.64 MJ of H2 produced for every 1 MJ of fossil
energy consumed

Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.

Wind/Electrolysis Study

turbines

electrolyzer

H2 storage

Wind turbines:
 Atlantic Orient Corporation (50kW x 3)
 Class 5 wind data from upper Midwest site
(North Dakota)
Electrolyzer:
 Stuart Energy (30 Nm3/hr nominal capacity)
Cars fueled: fleet of 46 at 3 kg/car/week

Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.

GWP and Energy Balance


Wind/Electrolysis

Preliminary results:
GWP = 650 g CO2-eq/kg H2
Only 5% of the greenhouse gas emissions from SMR

Energy balance = 20 MJ of H2 produced for every


1 MJ of fossil energy consumed
31 times more than the net energy balance from SMR

Emissions are from equipment manufacture


Majority from concrete bases for wind turbines
Water consumption in electrolysis accounts for nearly
all resources

Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.

Hydrogen Production Choice?

Wind power offers significant reduction in GHG


emissions
For transportation, there is a mismatch between
wind turbine energy availability and the large
concentrated populations of cars
Costs for hydrogen from wind power are MUCH
higher than those from SMR
For SMR, more fossil energy is consumed than H2
energy produced

Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.

Systems Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis

ACCURACY REFLECTS UNCERTAINTIES

Technical accuracy is good


Based on established engineering principles
Amount of fuel per year
Amount of stainless steel pipe
Average lifetime of valves

Converting technical into $ more difcult


Interest rates
Ination rates

Cost of fuel

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SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

An Example

A N LCA OF NUCLEAR FUEL COST INCLUDING SCARCITY

Cost of nuclear fuel including scarcity


Reference case: U=$2000/kg
Breakdown from the MIT study for cost per kg
Ore
Enrichment
Fabrication
Storage and Disposal
Total

$437
$117
$825
$351
$2040

15

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

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Systems Analysis

An Example

E QUATIONS FOR THE COST OF ORE ARE NON - LINEAR

Known reserves and cost of ore are inter-related



Core (t) = Ci exp k1

10N(t)MF t
Ri (t) 10N(t)MF t

Ncoal
N(t) = Ni0 +
+ k2 Ni0 t
Tp

Core (t) Ci
Ri (t) = Ri0 1 + k3
Core (t)

k1 = 2.3, k2 = 0.05, k3 = 2

16

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

An Example

C OST OF ORE FROM SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

C[$/kg]
N[#]
R[107 kg]

1,000
800

Note the
singular
response
around 40
years. What
causes this?

600
400
200

What does a
plot of R vs C
look like?

0
0

10

20
Year

30

17

40

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

An Example

C ONCLUSION

Cost of ore increases by 30


Ore is 1/5 the cost of uranium
COE of uranium = 0.56 cent/kWhr
This yields 3.8 cents/kWhr
Not as bad when you calculate the present value
Still it could be a problem
Uncertainty: what is the sensitivity to k1 , k2 , k3

18

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

Risk Analysis

R ISK A NALYSIS

Risk analysis involves accidents to people or mechanical failures


Too many injuries or failures lower the capacity factor and reduce
revenue
We want to minimize risk but it is not possible to achieve zero risk
Qualitatively risk can be written as

Risk = Frequency Consequence

19

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

Risk Analysis

T YPES OF R ISK

Risk can be continuous or discrete


Continuous: exposure to toxic fumes
Discrete: steam pipe explosion
Consequences could cause minor injuries
Consequences could cause death
Consequences could involve land or water contamination
Even if no human or ecological damage, mechanical failures
lower capacity factor

20

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

Risk Analysis

AVOIDING R ISK

Three basic approaches:


Ultra robust design to minimize failure
Redundancy one system fails, another takes over
Increased shut-downs for maintenance and repairs

21

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

Risk Analysis

D ETERMINING R ISK

How do we determine risk?


This is the realm of risk analysis
Single component failures relatively easy
Qualication data available
History of real world experience
Can predict the mean time between failure

Single small failures often harmless


Single gigantic failures very rare

22

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

Risk Analysis

C OMPLEX FAILURES

Largest danger: often a sequence of


minor failures leads to major
catastrophe
For example: TMI, Challenger
Analysis requires sophisticated tools
Fault tree analysis
Event tree analysis
Uncertainty analysis

Probability of a severe accident


Greater for a sequence of minor

failures

Fault Tree example

Smaller for a single major failure


23

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

Systems Analysis

Risk Analysis

W HAT TO DO ?

Recommendations vary by group


Builders tend to underestimate risks to keep the cost down
Example: Dont worry the Big Dig is safe
Others tend to overestimate the risks to avoid or delay
construction
Example: Nuclear is unsafe dont build it.
Example: Wind kill birds dont build it.

Often the arbiter of risks are government agencies the EPA,


NRC, FDA, etc.
Desire risk informed regulations
Regulations consistent with severity of the risk

24

SE T-4 Systems Analysis

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6.5

Ccapny
( )

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2
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Introduction to Sustainable Energy
Fall 2010

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