The Correlation of draft

position and performance on

a professional level in the NHL

by Erik Unger

Background

Just about every major sport league within the US has

a draft

The draft can be the most exciting moment during the

offseason

Each team spends a great amount of time on scouting

and planning for the draft

Does draft position truly matter or can greatness be

found whether it ones from the first pick of the draft or
the very last?

Purpose of the Study

To determine if draft position and performance,

particularly in the NHL, are related

Do players drafted much earlier end up

performing better in the NHL than those drafted
much later?

All teams have skill in drafting, but its just that

teams are equally skilled, in a very uncertain
environment -Cade Massey

Research Questions

Does draft placement

correlate to performance on a
professional level within the
NHL?

Are drafts based off a majority

of luck?

Is there a better method to

select draft picks that will
show higher performance?

Hypotheses

The current hypotheses is that

a player drafted in the last
round of the draft can perform
just as well as a player drafted
in the earlier rounds

Luck factor?

Poor draft planning?

Combo/neither?

Significance of the Study

Look deeper at the outcome of draft selections

Determine if there is a pattern of draft postion

and performance

Offer insight on whether teams should

reconsider draft selection process

Limitations

Quantitative data doesnt explain why a player

was picked at their given draft position

Many factors other than perceived performance

can affect draft position

Human factor of draft decision requires a more in

depth qualitative approach

Wharton professor: Success in the

NFL Draft about luck, not smarts

Discusses Cade Massey

research project on who in the
NFL is best at the draft

It turned out, there are no

differences in teams abilities
to draft -Cade Massey

Example 1: Tom Brady

Example 2: Tim Couch

Rethinking the MasseyThaler Draft Study

Perceived value vs. salaries

Questions Massey and

Thalers theory that teams
place too much confidence
and value in early round draft
picks

Early round draft picks receive

a larger salary because they
can outperform later round
draft picks

Born at the Wrong Time:

Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

How does relative age effect

(RAE) correlate to success in the
NHL?
There are more players drafted in
the NHL born in the first quarter
than in the fourth quarter

Younger players tend to get

drafted earlier

Player drafted outside of the first

quarter have a higher percentage
of points compared to amount
drafted

Developmental contexts and sporting

success: birth date and birthplace effects in
national hockey league draftees 2000-2005

Examined RAE and

birthplace of NHL
draftees between 2000
and 2005

RAE has more of an

effect on Canadian born
players compared to
those born in the US

Research Design

Quantitative: Stats of draftees will be used to

determine performance in the NHL

Categories: Goals (G), Assists (A), Points (P),

Hits (H), Blocked Shots (BS), Goals Against
Average (GAA), Save Percentage (S%), Wins
(W), Shutouts, Plus/Minus (+/-), Time on Ice
(TOI), and Penalty Minutes (PIM)

Draft will be broken up into three stages (Early,

Middle, and Late)

Research Design (cont.)

Qualitative: In order to understand the human

factor of draft decisions, key administration
involved in scouting and draft decisions will be
interviewed

Factors that can affect draft decision outside of

stats include positions that need filling,
chemistry with current players, and leadership
ability

Population and Sampling

Method

NHL Drafts from 2000-2009

10 recent drafts which include 2,531 players

Allows time for most recent draftees to have some

ice time

Keeping the population more recent will also allow

for the possibility that this who were involved in
the draft decisions are still involved in the NHL

Data Collection Procedures

Quantitative: Stats

Readily available for every player on NHL.com

Free of any ethical issues

Data Collection Procedures

(cont.)

Qualitative: Interviews

Will promote free form discussion along with a

set of questions that pushes the conversation
toward understanding why players were drafted
at what point

Questions will need to be reviewed in order to be

ethical, unobjectionable, and inoffensive

Sample Interview Questions

Between the 2000-2009 drafts, what picks was the

team most excited about receiving at the time?

Which draft picks have performed better than

expected?

Which draft picks have performed less than

expected?

What qualities other than stats does the team look

for when drafting?

References

Baker, J., Logan, A. (2007). Developmental contexts and sporting

succes: birth date and birthplace effects in national hockey league
draftees 2000-2005. British Journal of Sports Medicine. 41, 515-517.

Burke, B. (2010, April 7). Rethinking the Massey-Thaler Draft Study.

Advanced NFL Stats. Retrieved October 28, 2013, from http://
advancednflstats.com/2010/04/rethinking-massey-thaler-draftstudy.html.

Deaner, R., Lowen, A., & Cobley, S. (2013). Born at the Wrong Time:
Selection Bias in the NHL Draft. PLoS ONE. (8)2, e57753.

Jensen, M. (2013, September). Wharton professor: Success in the

NFL Draft about luck, not smarts [Electronic Version]. The
Philadelphia Inquirer.